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monolith
climber
state of being
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Dec 27, 2017 - 05:10pm PT
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The Thomas fire, that dwarfs them all, is strongly linked to downed power lines during a high wind event.
And no matter how they start, they will spread faster due to the drier conditions of a warming California.
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Lennox
climber
in the land of the blind
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Dec 29, 2017 - 08:44am PT
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In the East, it could be the COLDEST New Year’s Eve on record. Perhaps we could use a little bit of that good old Global Warming that our Country, but not other countries, was going to pay TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS to protect against. Bundle up!
Donald Trump
It’s called climate change related extreme weather events.
What about the hurricanes? What about the wildfires? What an idiot.
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AP
Trad climber
Calgary
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Dec 29, 2017 - 11:49am PT
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A recent article suggests the current cold weather in Canada and NE US may be due to the current warmer than normal conditions in the Arctic and its effect on polar winds
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Lennox
climber
in the land of the blind
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Dec 29, 2017 - 02:04pm PT
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^ ^ ^ ^
Yeah, hmm, hey Donald, on that map there, what’s up with all that red and orange NORTH of that blue area, huh?
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Lennox
climber
in the land of the blind
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Dec 29, 2017 - 05:17pm PT
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The pieces are falling into place:
The ORANGE Revolution took place in Ukraine.
The anomalous increases on global temperature maps are indicated by the color ORANGE.
VLADIMIR PUTIN vigorously opposed the ORANGE Revolution.
VLADIMIR PUTIN’s Russia has vast oil reserves they would like to exploit to gain greater geopolitical power.
Economic sanctions on VLADIMIR PUTIN’s Russia in response to Russian behavior since the ORANGE Revolution have prevented full exploitation of Russian oil reserves.
VLADIMIR PUTIN helped elect an ORANGELY pigmented candidate who supports the easing of sanctions on VLADIMIR PUTIN’s Russia.
The easing of sanctions will accelerate global warming and increase ORANGE areas on climate temperature anomaly maps.
In order to do his patron, VLADIMIR PUTIN’s bidding, the ORANGE one must convince the electorate that global warming is FAKE NEWS.
Therefore the color ORANGE IS FAKE NEWS!
BUT Donald Trump is ORANGE.
Therefore Donald Trump is FAKE NEWS!
??????????
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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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Not sure how rising plant fuel is causing deoxigenation. Seems like a bit of a stretch.
Pet alarmist theory of the month?
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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from the Science article:
Causes of oxygen decline
Global warming as a cause of oxygen loss in the open ocean
The discovery of widespread oxygen loss in the open ocean during the past 50 years depended on repeated hydrographic observations that revealed oxygen declines at locations ranging from the northeast Pacific (29) and northern Atlantic (30) to tropical oceans (2). Greenhouse gas–driven global warming is the likely ultimate cause of this ongoing deoxygenation in many parts of the open ocean (31). For the upper ocean over the period 1958–2015, oxygen and heat content are highly correlated with sharp increases in both deoxygenation and ocean heat content, beginning in the mid-1980s (32).
Ocean warming reduces the solubility of oxygen. Decreasing solubility is estimated to account for ~15% of current total global oxygen loss and [greater than] 50% of the oxygen loss in the upper 1000 m of the ocean (9, 33). Warming also raises metabolic rates, thus accelerating the rate of oxygen consumption. Therefore, decomposition of sinking particles occurs faster, and remineralization of these particles is shifted toward shallower depths (34), resulting in a spatial redistribution but not necessarily a change in the magnitude of oxygen loss.
Intensified stratification may account for the remaining 85% of global ocean oxygen loss by reducing ventilation—the transport of oxygen into the ocean interior—and by affecting the supply of nutrients controlling production of organic matter and its subsequent sinking out of the surface ocean. Warming exerts a direct influence on thermal stratification and indirectly enhances salinity-driven stratification through its effects on ice melt and precipitation. Increased stratification alters the mainly wind-driven circulation in the upper few hundred meters of the ocean and slows the deep overturning circulation (9). Reduced ventilation, which may also be influenced by decadal to multidecadal oscillations in atmospheric forcing patterns (35), has strong subsurface manifestations at relatively shallow ocean depths (100 to 300 m) in the low- to mid-latitude oceans and less pronounced signatures down to a few thousand meters at high latitudes. Oxygen declines closer to shore have also been found in some systems, including the California Current and lower Saint Lawrence Estuary, where the relative strength of various currents have changed and remineralization has increased (36, 37).
There is general agreement between numerical models and observations about the total amount of oxygen loss in the surface ocean (38). There is also consensus that direct solubility effects do not explain the majority of oceanic oxygen decline (31). However, numerical models consistently simulate a decline in the total global ocean oxygen inventory equal to only about half that of the most recent observation-based estimate and also predict different spatial patterns of oxygen decline or, in some cases, increase (9, 31, 39). These discrepancies are most marked in the tropical thermocline (40). This is problematic for predictions of future deoxygenation, as these regions host large open-ocean OMZs [oxygen-minimum zones], where a further decline in oxygen levels could have large impacts on ecosystems and biogeochemistry (Fig. 2A). It is also unclear how much ocean oxygen decline can be attributed to alterations in ventilation versus respiration. Mechanisms other than greenhouse gas–driven global warming may be at play in the observed ocean oxygen decline that are not well represented in current ocean models. For example, internal oscillations in the climate system, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, affect ventilation processes and, eventually, oxygen distributions (35).
Models predict that warming will strengthen winds that favor upwelling and the resulting transport of deeper waters onto upper slope and shelf environments in some coastal areas (41, 42), especially at high latitudes within upwelling systems that form along the eastern boundary of ocean basins (43). The predicted magnitude and direction of change is not uniform, however, either within individual large upwelling systems or among different systems. Upwelling in the southern Humboldt, southern Benguela, and northern Canary Eastern Boundary upwelling systems is predicted to increase in both duration and intensity by the end of the 21st century (43). Where the oxygen content of subsurface source waters declines, upwelling introduces water to the shelf that is both lower in oxygen and higher in CO₂. Along the central Oregon coast of the United States in 2006, for example, anoxic waters upwelled to depths of [less than] 50 m within 2 km of shore, persisted for 4 months, and resulted in large-scale mortality of benthic macro-invertebrates (11). There are no prior records of such severe oxygen depletion over the continental shelf or within the OMZ in this area (11).
Nutrient enrichment of coastal waters
Sewage discharges have been known to deplete oxygen concentrations in estuaries since at least the late 1800s (44), and by the mid 1900s the link to agricultural fertilizer runoff was discussed (45). Nevertheless, the number and severity of hypoxic sites has continued to increase (Fig. 2B). The human population has nearly tripled since 1950 (46). Agricultural production has greatly increased to feed this growing population and meet demands for increased consumption of animal protein, resulting in a 10-fold increase in global fertilizer use over the same period (47). Nitrogen discharges from rivers to coastal waters increased by 43% in just 30 years from 1970 to 2000 (48), with more than three times as much nitrogen derived from agriculture as from sewage (49).
Eutrophication occurs when nutrients (primarily N and P) and biomass from human waste and agriculture, as well as N deposition from fossil fuel combustion, stimulate the growth of algae and increase algal biomass. The enhanced primary and secondary production in surface waters increases the delivery rate of degradable organic matter to bottom waters where microbial decomposition by aerobic respiration consumes oxygen. Once oxygen levels are low, behavioral and biogeochemical feedbacks can hinder a return to higher-oxygen conditions (50). For example, burrowing invertebrates that introduce oxygen to sediments die or fail to recruit, and sediment phosphorus is released, fueling additional biological production in the water column and eventual increased oxygen consumption.
Coastal systems vary substantially in their susceptibility to developing low oxygen concentrations. Low rates of vertical exchange within the water column reduce rates of oxygen resupply (51), and long water-retention times favor the accumulation of phytoplankton biomass (14) and its eventual subsurface degradation. Chesapeake Bay develops hypoxia and anoxia that persist for several months during late spring through early autumn and cover up to 30% of the system area. In contrast, the nearby Delaware Bay, which has weaker stratification and a shorter retention time, does not develop hypoxia, in spite of similar nutrient loads (52). Manila Bay is adjacent to a megacity and also receives similar loads on an annual basis, but it becomes hypoxic principally during the wet southwest monsoon period, when rainfall increases nutrient loads and stratification (53).
Low oxygen in coastal waters and semi-enclosed seas can persist for minutes to thousands of years and may extend over spatial scales ranging from less than one to many thousands of square kilometers. Both local and remote drivers lead to temporal and spatial variations in hypoxia. Local weather can influence oxygen depletion in very shallow water through wind mixing and the effect of cloud cover on photosynthesis (54). At larger spatial scales, variations in wind direction and speed (55), precipitation and nutrient loads (56), sea surface temperature (57), and nutrient content of water masses transported into bottom layers of stratified coastal systems contribute to interannual and longer-period variations in hypoxic volume, duration, and rate of deoxygenation (14).
Climate change in coastal waters
Warming is predicted to exacerbate oxygen depletion in many nutrient-enriched coastal systems through mechanisms similar to those of the open ocean: increased intensity and duration of stratification, decreased oxygen solubility, and accelerated respiration (4, 58, 59). The current rate of oxygen decline in coastal areas exceeds that of the open ocean (60), however, likely reflecting the combined effects of increased warming of shallow water and higher concentrations of nutrients. Higher air temperatures can result in earlier onset and longer durations of hypoxia in eutrophic systems through effects on the seasonal timing of stratification and the rate of oxygen decline (58). An ensemble modeling study of the Baltic Sea projects declining oxygen under all but the most aggressive nutrient-reduction plans, owing to increased precipitation and consequent nutrient loads, decreased flux of oxygen from the atmosphere, and increased internal nutrient cycling. Even aggressive nutrient reduction is projected to yield far less benefit under climate change than under current conditions (61).
Because of regional variations in the effects of global warming on precipitation and winds, the rate and direction of change in oxygen content is expected to vary among individual coastal water bodies (4, 58). Where precipitation increases, both stratification and nutrient discharges are expected to increase, with the reverse occurring in regions where precipitation decreases. Changes in seasonal patterns of precipitation and rates of evaporation can also be important. Coastal wetlands that remove nutrients before they reach open water are predicted to be lost as sea levels rise, decreasing capacity to remove excess nitrogen, but the rate of wetland inundation and the ability of wetlands to migrate landward will vary.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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Jan 11, 2018 - 05:47am PT
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Good post up there Ed
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WBraun
climber
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Jan 11, 2018 - 07:25am PT
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The true reality of climate change.
For every action, there is a reaction.
The modern gross physical actions have all been unharmoniously against the true interests of the living self itself.
Modern people are and remain ..... st00pid .....
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jan 12, 2018 - 08:34am PT
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I’m officially worried now. A Yellow-bellied Sea Snake was found on the sand at Newport Beach.
Them are some really poisonous little phukkers.
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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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Jan 12, 2018 - 10:08am PT
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Gotta love the NOAA.
Here's their Winter temp forecast.
The temperature outlook shown above indicates above-average temperatures across the southern US, extending northward out West through the central Rockies and all the way up to Maine in the eastern part of the nation.
With that kind of accuracy for the three month outlook, I definitely trust their guestimates for the distant future.
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Lennox
climber
in the land of the blind
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Jan 18, 2018 - 08:31pm PT
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This map shows Earth’s average global temperature from 2013 to 2017, as compared to a baseline average from 1951 to 1980, according to an analysis by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Yellows, oranges, and reds show regions warmer than the baseline.
Credits: NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/long-term-warming-trend-continued-in-2017-nasa-noaa
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Dave
Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
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Jan 21, 2018 - 01:32pm PT
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I agree with the gist of Mike Rowe's comments. Science is never "settled".
That said, those who ignore data - the mounds and mounds of it - are not exactly enlightened.
But, please buy a Tesla. My employer and I will thank you. The electrification of transportation will be the next driver for copper consumption, so have at it.
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Climbert
climber
the t is silent
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Jan 21, 2018 - 02:19pm PT
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Yay Jody! I love how you are so smart! Did you see all the other smart people who are also so wise and post at WUWT? There are so many fact those elitists are covering up. The earth was cold 20000 years ago and will be obviously be cold again soon.
MAGA,
Bert
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Climbert
climber
the t is silent
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Jan 21, 2018 - 03:55pm PT
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Oh don't be modest.
Only a smart man could seek out and find such genius as John Coleman, and Mike Rowe, the lonely voices of wisdom who know that the 99% consensus is an elitist sham. After all, who makes more profit, Exxon or NASA. Obviously Exxon is smarter.
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Dave
Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
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Jan 21, 2018 - 05:29pm PT
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Hell, Jody, Ed has put some of it up on this thread.
The truth is out there.
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Dave
Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
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Jan 21, 2018 - 05:32pm PT
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You deny the planet is heating up?
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Climbert
climber
the t is silent
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Jan 21, 2018 - 07:02pm PT
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The consensus was 97% 5-10 years ago. Now it's up to -*edit: 98%. But we knew that, since we're smarter than 98% of climate scientists.
MAGA! Yay Exxon! Burn IT!
James L. Powell, a former member of the National Science Board and current executive director of the National Physical Science Consortium, analyzed published research on global warming and climate change between 1991 and 2012 and found that of the 13,950 articles in peer-reviewed journals, only 24 rejected anthropogenic global warming. A follow-up analysis looking at 2,258 peer-reviewed climate articles with 9,136 authors published between November 2012 and December 2013 revealed that only one of the 9,136 authors rejected anthropogenic global warming. His 2015 paper on the topic, covering 24,210 articles published by 69,406 authors during 2013 and 2014 found only five articles by four authors rejecting anthropogenic global warming. Over 99.99% of climate scientists did not reject AGW in their peer-reviewed research.
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https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
"Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver." (2009)2
American Association for the Advancement of Science
"The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society." (2006)3
American Chemical Society
"Comprehensive scientific assessments of our current and potential future climates clearly indicate that climate change is real, largely attributable to emissions from human activities, and potentially a very serious problem." (2004)4
American Geophysical Union
"Human‐induced climate change requires urgent action. Humanity is the major influence on the global climate change observed over the past 50 years. Rapid societal responses can significantly lessen negative outcomes." (Adopted 2003, revised and reaffirmed 2007, 2012, 2013)5
American Medical Association
"Our AMA ... supports the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s fourth assessment report and concurs with the scientific consensus that the Earth is undergoing adverse global climate change and that anthropogenic contributions are significant." (2013)6
American Meteorological Society
"It is clear from extensive scientific evidence that the dominant cause of the rapid change in climate of the past half century is human-induced increases in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbons, methane, and nitrous oxide." (2012)7
American Physical Society
"The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now." (2007)8
The Geological Society of America
"The Geological Society of America (GSA) concurs with assessments by the National Academies of Science (2005), the National Research Council (2006), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) that global climate has warmed and that human activities (mainly greenhouse‐gas emissions) account for most of the warming since the middle 1900s." (2006; revised 2010)9
SCIENCE ACADEMIES
International academies: Joint statement
"Climate change is real. There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world’s climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring. The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes to many physical and biological systems. It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities (IPCC 2001)." (2005, 11 international science academies)10
U.S. National Academy of Sciences
"The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify taking steps to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere." (2005)11
U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES
U.S. Global Change Research Program
"The global warming of the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced increases in heat-trapping gases. Human 'fingerprints' also have been identified in many other aspects of the climate system, including changes in ocean heat content, precipitation, atmospheric moisture, and Arctic sea ice." (2009, 13 U.S. government departments and agencies)12
INTERGOVERNMENTAL BODIES
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen.”13
“Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems.”14
OTHER RESOURCES
List of worldwide scientific organizations
The following page lists the nearly 200 worldwide scientific organizations that hold the position that climate change has been caused by human action.
http://opr.ca.gov/s_listoforganizations.php
U.S. agencies
The following page contains information on what federal agencies are doing to adapt to climate change.
http://www.c2es.org/docUploads/federal-agencies-adaptation.pdf
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