Climate Change: Why aren't more people concerned about it?

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skitch

Gym climber
Bend Or
Topic Author's Original Post - Nov 3, 2016 - 08:17pm PT
I know that I don't live my life as though climate change is as scary and real as we all know it to be, but goddamn we have a lot to be scared of. I have been watching "Years of Living Dangerously" which the first 2 episodes are from Showtime, and the most current season 3 is on National Geographic Channel.

My guess is that the petroleum companies have successfully shut us up about it because the dumbasses that believe that it isn't true wear us out with their idiotic reasoning about why it isn't true.
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Nov 3, 2016 - 08:19pm PT
Because the Republican Party isn't extinct. Yet.

Curt
skitch

Gym climber
Bend Or
Topic Author's Reply - Nov 3, 2016 - 08:30pm PT
Do you really think the republican party is going anywhere? They are going to continue growing due to many of the same reasons there is war in Syria, and rising right-wing nationalism in Europe: a decrease in education funding and an increase in the separation between the haves and have-nots. Ironically the reasons for much of this separation is being caused by climate change. . . and the "poor" uneducated people that follow the right-right wing are supporting people that not only deny climate change, but are actively attempting to increase the velocity that our earth warms up. . .

I believe that our country will only keep moving towards a dictatorship. . .I think Obama is a decent man and an okay president, but he has continued the tradition of grasping more power, which I believe will just continue when a majority of our congress is composed of gas corporation puppets, and I don't see Hillary Clinton doing much about climate change despite how much the right hates her she seems to be another puppet to the people with the money.
Mark Force

Trad climber
Ashland, Oregon
Nov 3, 2016 - 08:38pm PT
Because there are still unopened cases of champagne on the Titanic?
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 3, 2016 - 08:42pm PT
that dog crapping on my lawn isn't being caused by me ergo I can't do anything about it. to wit: maybe it is good for the lawn
Fossil climber

Trad climber
Atlin, B. C.
Nov 3, 2016 - 08:47pm PT
You're right, Skitch. Animal populations boom and bust. We're animals. Approaching the bust. Short sightedness is a characteristic of our species. Be glad you lived when you have.
skitch

Gym climber
Bend Or
Topic Author's Reply - Nov 3, 2016 - 10:30pm PT
Jody: please tell your God to quit being such an assshole?
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Nov 4, 2016 - 12:37am PT
Why worry about it if there is nothing you can do about it? It isn't being caused by humans therefore humans can't affect it. Who says climate change is bad anyway? Maybe it is GOOD for the earth.

1) There are things we can do about it.

2) It is being caused by humans.

3) Global warming is bad, unless you're a religious nutcase eagerly awaiting the rapture.

Curt
mouse from merced

Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
Nov 4, 2016 - 04:43am PT
Animal populations boom and bust. We're animals. Approaching the bust. Short sightedness is a characteristic of our species. Be glad you lived when you have.

Wayne, please tell your God to be more rational. :0)

Dingus, may I have a ride in your handbasket?
Bushman

climber
The state of quantum flux
Nov 4, 2016 - 04:59am PT
Hell is what our grandchildren will possibly experience.

Hell is worrying about their future in a world of runaway green house gasses and its effects, or their chances of surviving in a toxic environment, or of surviving a nuclear war.

Hell is manmade and here on earth, and death is the only escape from it.

Hell is for children.

Have a wonderful day!
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 4, 2016 - 06:55am PT
You know, science. Or maybe: You don't know, science.

Perhaps, in the vernacular: Pray to Gawd.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 4, 2016 - 07:07am PT
because it didn't fit their observations

Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Nov 4, 2016 - 07:13am PT
Jody - Whatever they choose to call IT, the thought that we can do something about IT, that IT is being caused by humans, and that IT has catastrophic consequences, is only believed and taken as undeniable "fact" if you are an environmental nutcase quack.

Science deniers (reality deniers) are a funny lot. Also, apparently some of "them" still call IT "global warming."

Global warming is happening now. The planet's temperature is rising. The trend is clear and unmistakable. Every one of the past 38 years has been warmer than the 20th century average. The 12 warmest years on record have all occurred since 1998. The hottest year ever recorded for the contiguous United States occurred in 2012. Globally, the average surface temperature has increased more than one degree Fahrenheit since the late 1800s. Most of that increase has occurred over just the past three decades.

We are the cause. We are overloading our atmosphere with carbon dioxide, which traps heat and steadily drives up the planet’s temperature. Where does all this carbon come from? The fossil fuels we burn for energy—coal, natural gas, and oil—plus the loss of forests due to deforestation, especially in the tropics. The scientific evidence is clear. Within the scientific community, there is no debate. An overwhelming majority of climate scientists agree that global warming is happening and that human activity is the primary cause.

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming#.WByW6neZMU0

Curt
Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Nov 4, 2016 - 07:15am PT
woe unto them that lay house unto house, field unto field...

Bushman

climber
The state of quantum flux
Nov 4, 2016 - 07:23am PT
A majority of earth's scientists have understood for some time that climate change is caused by human activity and is absolutely real. It's not even a real debate any longer among forward thinking people.

Denying a problem is not a solution unless you believe there is no problem. In that case your mind would never be changed, short of traveling 100 years into the future to see for yourself what impact our activities have had on the planet.

Building a time machine would be way more difficult than for governments, the populace, and industries to begin taking the problem of global warming and climate change seriously. Still, a time machine is a great learning tool. In fact, we already have a time machine for seeing the impact of overpopulation. It's called history.
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Nov 4, 2016 - 07:24am PT
A majority of earth's scientists have understood for some time that climate change is caused by human activity and is absolutely real. It's not even a real debate any longer among forward thinking people.

Ah, that would explain Jody's position.

Curt
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Nov 4, 2016 - 07:25am PT
I agree, Bushman.

What do you DO?



EDTI:

You too, Curt.

What do you DO?
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 4, 2016 - 07:25am PT
The women on my campus do not cause rape therefore they can do nothing about getting raped.
snagglepuss

Mountain climber
Nov 4, 2016 - 07:28am PT
Jody,

1) >97% of the world's climate scientists agree it's being caused by human activity (the remaining 3% are mainly unsure).

2) The rest of the world agrees that it is being caused by human activity.

3) Most American's believe it's being caused by Human activity.

4) One shrinking group of American's believe it's a hoax BECAUSE THEIR CHOSEN POLITICIANS TELL THEM IT'S A HOAX.

5) Have you ever read the story of Noah's Arc? Remember all the proud disbelief and ridicule heaped on Noah? This is what has been done by American politicians (and their followers) on the world's climate scientists. This is Noah's Arc all over again!
Bushman

climber
The state of quantum flux
Nov 4, 2016 - 07:28am PT
Curt,
Using my point to make your point, in point, makes the point. Pointy hats to be passed all around...

Yes, I'm also part of the problem, tree service owner, fossil fuel user, and consumer. We recycle green waste and attempt to preserve the urban forest when diseased or hazard trees do not need to be removed. Still, wholesale changes could be made in our industry.

Inevitably, my hazard existence shall be removed. End of my problem, but not for the rest of us.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 4, 2016 - 07:29am PT
Answer me this, umpteen thousands of years ago, when a majority of the earth was covered in ice, what caused it to start melting?

You ask this of people that actually happen to have a pretty good answer for you, yet your surliness and certitude that combustion of 2.7 million gallons of oil per minute has nothing to do with changes to the earth's atmosphere and climate preclude a serious answer.
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Nov 4, 2016 - 07:32am PT
I agree Snagglepuss.

What do we DO?

thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 4, 2016 - 07:33am PT
less burning of hydrocarbons would be a good start Chaz
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 4, 2016 - 07:35am PT
enhance access to education -> lower rates of reproduction -> diminished (or at least not so rapidly growing) pool of users

cut off federal subsidy to the extractors, transfer subsidy to non-hydrocarbon energy generation/storage/transport tech.
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Nov 4, 2016 - 07:38am PT
You too, Curt.

What do you DO?

My opinion would be to move away from fossil fuels to other forms of energy as quickly as possible. Wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, etc. I would even give nuclear energy another look for baseload generation. Not an easy task--but certainly doable.

Curt
patrick compton

Trad climber
van
Nov 4, 2016 - 07:38am PT
global warming is Trump's warm love shining down on all of us!

praise Lord Trump!
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 4, 2016 - 07:38am PT
an economic model in which growth (market as a prison) is not requisite might help. a bit late now, I agree
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 4, 2016 - 07:44am PT
^yep, that's the problem, we do live at a desirable standard. perhaps educating those that are reproducing most rapidly would help, as suggested.
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Nov 4, 2016 - 07:46am PT
What do we do about the other 95% of humanity?

I'll bet humanity is fairly agnostic with regard to where their energy comes from.

Curt
snagglepuss

Mountain climber
Nov 4, 2016 - 07:49am PT
Chaz,

What we do is ...
We stop denying and continue taking baby steps toward a cleaner future.

Climbing El Cap seems daunting when standing at the bottom looking up. Many choose Jody's & Dingus's route and bail. But move by move, pitch by pitch, if you continue upward you will alwaysUnderlined arrive at the top.

What we do is make the first move up ... and then continue. Baby steps without quitting.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Nov 4, 2016 - 07:54am PT
perhaps educating those that are reproducing most rapidly would help, as suggested.

From what I've seen of the have-nots they want what we have and they want it NOW!
And China and India, despite merrily signing climate accords, seemingly have no intention
of actively participating. Show me a catalytic converter on a car over there and I'll show you
a thousand without one.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 4, 2016 - 07:56am PT
Educate their wimmen and their wimmen will want real lives rather than pumping out 37 chillins.



And I totally hear you about the tragedy of the commons.

Fewer chillins, living at a higher standard, could enhance the likelihood of a more reasonable use of the commons
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Nov 4, 2016 - 07:57am PT
I agree, Cowboy, but the wimmen over yonder don't have much say in the matter.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 4, 2016 - 08:01am PT
I hear you. Cultural mores complicate it for sure. Educating their men will likely help relax that sex-restricted access to education, self-determination. I always thought that Taliban-type f*#kers could be addressed with mass LSD poisoning and aerial distribution of pornography

I'm really trying to be optimistic here, to forego the doom and gloom that helps me to do the runouts. :-)



And heck yeah DMT! I'm all for it! Just not in Green River, unless I'm selling 'em some key system components.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Nov 4, 2016 - 08:05am PT
Wimmen are the key to changing the Third World. They're the ones doing the micro-bank
thang, community and reproductive health, and violence against themselves. It's an uphill
battle for sure.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 4, 2016 - 08:17am PT
Ultimately all of these problems will be address with a massive calamity that reduces the human population, quality/duration of life. This is the 10,000 year rule and it comforts me when I see a shitty Pamper on the beach, or confront just how fractured and intractable even the much-idealized American system of governance, political/public deliberation stands.

F*#k it man, why would I work today when I can go find that two-track off a certain dirt road and dance in bodily harmony with the earth as she is on this glorious day? Never had the rhythm for proper dancehall leading with human partners anyway. Let's go bowling.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 4, 2016 - 08:22am PT
I don't stress on it. I go bowling and work to enhance the discourse in my little community here in my town. I think that talking about it is a good thing. I owe Jody a thank-you for starting the thread. And an apology, some day.







"There is nothing much we individuals can do about it, other than some measures like outlawing plastic bags." I am not so sure about this: my partner does not drive, she does not eat meat, and her career is dedicated to furthering the discourse. It's all wrapped up in how much you: 1) believe it is a problem that we are morally obligated to address, 2) take steps in your own life to do so. Baby steps, as the man says.

As a taxpayer I support money for the Train to Nowhere over more public money for the Train to Oceanic Acidification.
mouse from merced

Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
Nov 4, 2016 - 08:27am PT
"How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Population Explosion and Then It Blew Up In My Face."

Read it. It changed my life. Not many copies available. Tough to find. No, you cannot have mine and I don't lend books. Find your own.

And get the hell off my lawn!
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 4, 2016 - 08:28am PT
Why aren't more people concerned about it?

It doesn't directly impact anyone. It's not tangible. And the effort required to reduce CO2 levels would require global cooperation. Most people realize that's undoable.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 4, 2016 - 08:30am PT
"It doesn't directly impact anyone. It's not tangible" Tell it to the dudes going underwater in the S Pacific?



"And the effort required to reduce CO2 levels would require global cooperation. Most people realize that's undoable" This is an interesting iteration of my "F*#k it dude, let's go bowling" approach. Your attitude is the same as that in the Chinese smelters, that of the biggest polluters in Asia. It's the "I'm getting mine, f*#k the commons, and f*#k you" strategy. It works. For you.




The fact is, Polio was impossible. Infections were impossible. Climate change is impossible?

This is generationally rooted:
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 4, 2016 - 08:42am PT
Yes, if it means we stop pouring money into the dead-ends that we currently are dumping taxpayer dollars into. America can still lead.

"Is baking soda the answer to acid reflux?"
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 4, 2016 - 08:44am PT
"The disconnect from natural systems is profound" Totally agree. This is the beauty of the 10,000 year rule and human physical resilience



"We've broken the earth" You're speeding towards a guard-rail on a cliff-edge road. Do you hit the brakes or the gas?





"It doesn't and it won't" Well sh#t man, let's go bowling. No need to feel so bad about it, I suppose.



snagglepuss

Mountain climber
Nov 4, 2016 - 08:44am PT
Quitter's never get anything done. Lead, follow, or get out of the way! So many quit because it seems hard.

Our generation can be the one to go down in history as the one that started the change. It took 150 years to create the problem. It will not be fixed by a single generation. We can start to fix it, that is all. But that start is huge! Everything starts by starting.

Stop worrying about fixing it - you can't. All we can do is start to fix it.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Nov 4, 2016 - 08:46am PT
DMT, the wife may not take kindly to hearing that she is wasting her time curing her patients.
I, for one, am pretty damn glad I never got polio or smallpox, but maybe that's just me.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 4, 2016 - 08:48am PT
Jody, your fear-mongering makes me want to accept your control.


You vote Johnson? I wish I'd had the balls to get away from those damn major parties.

I sure am in favor nuclear power. Certainly not the case for everyone.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 4, 2016 - 08:51am PT
^indeed, the very traits that helped us make it to today cause the worst problems that we face.
mouse from merced

Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
Nov 4, 2016 - 08:54am PT
America was only the self-styled "leader" of a bloc of power seeking to undermine the power of another bloc of nations seeking to do the same to our bloc.

WE are not the leader, never have been. It's just our ego being fed by the media, the efforts of the powers-that-be to keep us happy and misled.

I wish I could set up a popcorn stand here.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 4, 2016 - 08:55am PT
This is an interesting iteration of my "F*#k it dude, let's go bowling" approach. Your attitude is the same as that in the Chinese smelters, that of the biggest polluters in Asia. It's the "I'm getting mine, f*#k the commons, and f*#k you" strategy. It works. For you.

Yikes! Bravecowboy's got his danders up.

If the governments of the World come up with a program to reduce CO2 levels... one that might actually work... I'll do what's asked. Gladly.

Until I'm asked to do something towards that end, I'm not going to worry about it.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 4, 2016 - 08:56am PT
Jody - You tell us that "they" are trying to control us. You encourage me to abandon my beliefs. It makes me feel like you are trying to control me. I can see how you might feel the same, especially when the most strident of my camp are preaching at you.

It is tough for me, to cast a vote for a Giant Turd. I suppose that this is the nature of shared human existence in a cooperative society.




And yes, EdwardT, time for me to GTFO here and get un-dandered in the Ponderosa-perfumed nirvana of our world. I hear your point. Go bowling!
Batrock

Trad climber
Burbank
Nov 4, 2016 - 08:58am PT
I think it's because people are callous to the cry for change.
In the 1970's we were supposed to be headed into an ice age, in the 1980's we had the hole in the ozone, in the late 90's-into the 2000's we had global warming and rising ocean levels. Now it's climate change. I think the average person has just become immune.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Nov 4, 2016 - 08:59am PT
Cowboy, being a geographer probably explains why I paid big bucks for a copy of The Rolling
Stones' "Sympathy For Thomas Maslow". Most people haven't heard it but it ROCKS!

And I prefer Bocce cause it's played outside.
Delhi Dog

climber
Good Question...
Nov 4, 2016 - 09:22am PT
Just finished watching NatGEo's Before the Flood

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90CkXVF-Q8M

I'd encourage you to watch it with an open mind if possible and then come back to discuss. Stick with it to the end.
I doubt many of you will but I remain optimistic.

If nothing else there is plenty of material to give pause for thought no matter which side of the "aisle" you're on.

cheers

WBraun

climber
Nov 4, 2016 - 09:33am PT
In the 1970's we were supposed to be headed into an ice age,
in the 1980's we had the hole in the ozone,
in the late 90's-into the 2000's we had global warming and rising ocean levels.
Now it's climate change.

I think the average person has just become immune.

Yes 100% true.

50 years ago people were shocked when crime, killing, murders or shootings in their neighborhoods.

Now they are immune as it occurs every day as seemingly normal.

Also you see bars on homes and security apparatuses everywhere in residential neighborhoods you've never seen back then.

America is brainwashed into drooling sheep ......
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Nov 4, 2016 - 09:46am PT
IT is all about controlling the people based on fraud.

Fortunately, not many of us live in Jody's flat, 6,000 year-old world.

Curt
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Shetville , North of Los Angeles
Nov 4, 2016 - 09:52am PT
It's pretty hard fighting climate change when a monopoly of oil corporations own our politicians...What was that story about Exxon publishing fake science to help squelch climate change science...? Why would Exxon do that if climate change wasn't real...?
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 4, 2016 - 09:56am PT
.What was that story about Exxon publishing fake science to help squelch climate change science...?

Alarmist propaganda.
c wilmot

climber
Nov 4, 2016 - 10:01am PT
Perhaps its because rich actors who have massive carbon footprints jetsetting around the world to make a for profit TV show while lecturing the peasant masses about climate change is a poor way to inform the public about the problem. How much pollution does Leo cause making his movies?


Its a good thing we have a guy like this around. What on earth would we do without him?
G_Gnome

Trad climber
Cali
Nov 4, 2016 - 10:04am PT
(10) your government is corrupt and incompetent

Not true at all. They are indeed corrupt but they are doing a great job at what they intend to do; misinformation, fear mongering, etc.
Jon Nelson

Boulder climber
Bellingham, WA
Nov 4, 2016 - 10:05am PT
Part of the answer may be that it is a very slow change, and a change that is hard for us to detect with our senses due to the much larger diurnal and seasonal temperature fluctuations.

Going slightly off on a tangent, I also think that people have little sense about how profound an effect that greenhouse gases have on our daily temperature.

The textbooks and probably nearly all websites will say that the overall effect of these gases is to raise our average surface temperature by 30 C (54 F). But some researchers recently calculated the average surface temperature of the moon, which is essentially a model of the Earth without an atmosphere, and found a big flaw in how previous people did the average. Turns out the average surface temperature of the moon is a whopping 90 C (162 F) degrees colder. And the diurnal fluctuation is about 300 C. Greenhouse gases have a gigantic effect on us.

Think about that next time you see the moon.
the Fet

climber
Tu-Tok-A-Nu-La
Nov 4, 2016 - 10:24am PT
IT is all about controlling the people based on fraud.

You mean the global warming hoax hoax? That fraud? (perpetrated with the same methods and by a lot of the same organizations that claimed cigarette smoking is just fine and freon wasn't destroying the ozone layer).

It's telling that the argument against global warming being a problem is "it's a liberal conspiracy to control us" not "here's the problems in the science, or hear is an alternative scientifically sound view of the data".

It's science. It doesn't say for certain what is happening (especially with a hugely complex system like the climate). But when you see carbon dioxide in the air (a greenhouse gas) is rising to WAY more than it's been for thousands of years, coinciding with the average global temperature going up you should be concerned.

Now the results of that are tough to predict. So IMO we shouldn't make drastic government imposed changes to our lifestyles that will significantly impact millions of people. But to buy into the BS (from the petroleum industry, etc) that it's not even happening is willful delusion.

People don't want their lifestyles impacted. Especially when the negative effects of global warming will mainly be on others. The first people to really suffer will be islanders on low level islands over the next couple decades. Then toward the latter half of this century coastal areas in America will have to deal with rising sea levels. Then our children will all start paying more for food, healthcare, etc. due the effects. Of course this is all projection, but that is what is likely to happen. We should at least be concerned about it and doing whatever we can to minimize the affects without really impacting our lifestyles (e.g. switching to renewable energy as much as possible). And everyone can do their part by being efficient with their energy use. e.g. put on a sweater, and keep the heater down. Without significantly impacting their life.

Who knows what will happen hundreds of years from now. When our children's' children will inherit the Earth. It's not about saving the planet, it's about leaving the planet in decent shape for them. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. But than again future technologies may help them limit of reverse the impacts, so I'm not one to say we have to eliminate all global warming right now.
Dropline

Mountain climber
Somewhere Up There
Nov 4, 2016 - 10:34am PT

Re global warming/climate change, we will adapt.
mouse from merced

Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
Nov 4, 2016 - 11:32am PT
And keep eating lots and lots of popcorn...
bobinc

Trad climber
Portland, Or
Nov 4, 2016 - 11:33am PT
Fastest way to get the biggest effect: a carbon tax levied at the pump and an adjustment in other taxes (income, sales, etc) to make it as revenue-neutral as possible.
snagglepuss

Mountain climber
Nov 4, 2016 - 11:43am PT
Sadly, the more I read of these stubborn American opinions the more I'm convinced the problem will be addressed through generational turnover. The current crop of stubborn old American white dudes will fight change until they're dead. Every day there are fewer of them blocking the way to the future. That may be where hope lies. Look at the table of generational statistics posted earlier in this thread.
bobinc

Trad climber
Portland, Or
Nov 4, 2016 - 11:48am PT
I think states have to institute the carbon taxes on their own in order to get anywhere quickly. This is what British Columbia did. It ain't gonna happen at the federal level. The gas tax there hasn't changed in over 20 yrs and it's primarily used to build new roads, as far as I know...
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 4, 2016 - 11:55am PT
Sadly, the more I read of these stubborn American opinions the more I'm convinced the problem will be addressed through generational turnover.

Today's young people are more entitled... more pampered than any previous generation. Smart phones are a given for most kids over eleven. Kids doing yardwork are a rarity. They spend their free time glued to tiny screens.

You think they'l make the hard sacrifices to reverse global warming?
snagglepuss

Mountain climber
Nov 4, 2016 - 12:09pm PT
Robert,

One guy doesn't make a generation. Ask YC and he'll tell you his generation has dropped the ball on environmental issues.
snagglepuss

Mountain climber
Nov 4, 2016 - 12:17pm PT
EdwardT,

Believe it or not but "entitled and self-centered" is how the genX-ers characterize the stone-wallers of your generation and mine.

The difference is that some among the Xers have the energy and ambition to embrace new ideas and overcome huge challenges. The rest are more willing to follow and not just stone-wall.
snagglepuss

Mountain climber
Nov 4, 2016 - 12:21pm PT
Malemute,

No need for anything that drastic. LOL
Time will do the dirty deeds and it will do it dirt cheap!
bobinc

Trad climber
Portland, Or
Nov 4, 2016 - 12:23pm PT
DMT, the BC approach does also include carbon taxes on commercial and industrial operations. I haven't looked at the most recent data, but for the first several years (since I believe BC started on this in 2008), the overall GDP effect was negligible and the reduction in carbon-based fuel usage was around 15% vs the rest of CN.
bobinc

Trad climber
Portland, Or
Nov 4, 2016 - 12:29pm PT
No carbon tax on imported goods, at least not as of 2013, which is the date of the study I use as my main reference. Your question is a good one and motivates me to see if there is an update on this.
bobinc

Trad climber
Portland, Or
Nov 4, 2016 - 12:42pm PT
Yes, you are right on the trade dynamics. But in my view, we've got a lot of excuses for not doing things and I guess all of the voluntary ways to reduce carbon footprint look to me to be very insignificant. A very small sliver of the population has made significant changes in what they buy and how they get around. But everyone else does what is cheapest and most comfortable. Maybe there is no way around our usage of fossil fuels and/or accelerate development of alternatives, we should change the price signal on business as usual.
bobinc

Trad climber
Portland, Or
Nov 4, 2016 - 12:48pm PT
Sounds good to me. Last I checked, the embodied-energy database on various manufactured goods was looking better and better. I think that's a very important aspect to this whole thing since so much of what we consume comes from offshore.
snagglepuss

Mountain climber
Nov 4, 2016 - 12:52pm PT
Robert L,

It probably doesn't matter what motivates them. What matters is that some humans out of every generation are always driven to tackle the biggest problems. Usually before the next big unforeseen consequence hits the fan.

You seem very pessimistic and defeatist. How did you possibly ever climb anything with that attitude?
the Fet

climber
Tu-Tok-A-Nu-La
Nov 4, 2016 - 01:07pm PT
Carbon taxes are a challenge politically (good luck getting any congressional Republicans to vote for it) as well as competitively in a global economy (as DMT mentions)(e.g. if we have higher taxes than China we put ourselves at a disadvantage).

They are perhaps part of a plan to address the issue, but I think investing in renewable energy is the more feasible solution. If we lead the world in clean energy we not only enjoy the benefits of cleaner air we can sell that tech to other countries and it makes us more competitive globally.
bobinc

Trad climber
Portland, Or
Nov 4, 2016 - 01:17pm PT
BC has used some of the carbon tax revenue to improve things like public transportation. Unfortunately I can't stay in this discussion for longer this afternoon but will try to provide some more info/links to address your question later today/early tomorrow.

Here's at least a link to get started on, but note it likely has a pro-tax bias. There are a number of other studies out there.

https://www.carbontax.org/blog/2015/12/17/british-columbias-carbon-tax-by-the-numbers/
snagglepuss

Mountain climber
Nov 4, 2016 - 01:27pm PT
Robert L,

It sounds like you believe in yourself but not in anyone else?

Motivations matter on a moral and philosophical level, which is important. Generally speaking, motivators don't ever change. There are only a few strong human motivators. Does it matter if someone saves mankind to impress his dead parents? Does it matter if someone saves the world to get laid more? Does it matter if someone saves the world to get rich? Many will do selfish and/or evil things for the same motivations.
Jon Nelson

Boulder climber
Bellingham, WA
Nov 4, 2016 - 02:25pm PT
"I also think that people have little sense about how profound an effect that greenhouse gases have on our daily temperature."

Why is it warmer at night when it's cloudy?
Because the clouds act as a blanket.

Everybody knows this, but the public doesn't understand the reason,
which is
-the earth radiates infrared frequencies due to the black body effect
-water vapour in clouds is a greenhouse gas
-greenhouse gases absorb & emit infrared radiation
-a good portion of the emitted radiation goes back to the earth

So greenhouse gases cause the earth to retain heat
This isn't rocket science


It is a good point about the clouds, as the clouds are even more effective at warming us, but the blanket analogy is the wrong one. (This is an unfortunate byproduct of the term 'greenhouse'.) A campfire analogy would be a huge improvement.

The warming has essentially nothing to do with absorption by the clouds or gases. It occurs only because the gases and cloud particles radiate. So, they should just be called 'radiating gases', and the effect, the 'atmospheric radiation effect'. Oh well, too late now.

A blanket works by suppressing convection. But convection in the troposphere entirely determines the temperature of the clouds and gases, which then radiate and warm us. This warming can happen only if we do NOT have a 'blanket'.

It's OK though Malemute. I see the same mistake everywhere. Probably pretty hopeless to try and correct now...

BobSFrankNose

Social climber
Seattle
Nov 4, 2016 - 02:57pm PT
Serious questions, no agenda.

What percent of worldwide climate change is truly anthropogenic?


And, the remaining percent that is NOT anthropogenic is caused by . . . what?


What percent of our current climate change is cyclical, or caused by the sun, or anomalies like rotations?


What percent of the total anthropogenic climate change is the United States directly responsible for?


And, what percent of the percentage that the United States is directly responsible for (that which we can effect with our vote, passing laws, changing behavior) can be controlled or reduced by us?

A) If we completely stop our economy and live in the dark ages as a country?
B) If we try to lead the world in promoting and/or making this central to our ideology?
C) Ignore the fact that China and India (and a dozen others) add coal fired power plants and other significant problems faster than we could ever reduce our emissions.



What has come to fruition from the studies done in the ‘90’s that lead to Al Gore’s slide show called An Inconvenient Truth since the origins and the predictions and the time limits of events that should have happened?


Do you believe or consider evidence produced in Climate Gate emails that things may have been overstated or ‘messed’ with?

A) What percent of the climate Gate emails have you read and cross-reference on your own
B) What percent do you believe are real and not out of context . . . 1%, 10% 50%?
C) After reading and cross-referencing – did you reflect or re-see An Inconvenient Truth?


Do you/did you believe 'predictions and computer models' of catastrophes more than 'after the fact retrospective evidence' (current satellite data) now looking back on what really is happening?


Do you believe there was/is a profit or money motive for some in the world to embrace/promote climate change and suggest trading carbon credits, new untested and expensive industries, tax credits for exploring new options and the equalizing of nations and countries into a global community?
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Nov 4, 2016 - 03:13pm PT













https://xkcd.com/1732/
Al Barkamps

Social climber
Red Stick
Nov 4, 2016 - 03:39pm PT
DMT Wrote
So long as the playing field is level, yes. If you expect me to take unilateral action, I will not.

...classic set up for a Tragedy of the Commons. Bruce K called you out on this. All of us should as well.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 4, 2016 - 03:49pm PT
Carbon taxes such as in BC and the initiative in next week's Washington state initiative 732 are only a start, but are far more effective and predictable that cap and trade schemes. You may have heard that the cap and trade in California lately has brought in very little money.

In general the wind, solar and green car incentives are working. No government policy is perfect. We can all find countless flaws and loopholes. For instance California does little about old cars and trucks that are highly polluting, hardly charging any yearly fee. But those flaws pale in comparison to massive climate change.

Yes such taxes need to be national and soon thereafter international. We would need to impose import taxes on countries that don't have a similar tax/incentive/reduction plan, although we might need to give a timeline of penalties.

However by the same reasoning, shouldn't the US + Canada + Mexico, etc be paying high taxes on exports to those countries that already have high carbon taxes/disincentives/policies/low use? (Europe for example)

Washington Initiative 732
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/conservative-economist-supports-carbon-tax-washington-state/

A Revenue Neutral Carbon Tax (just like I said in various posts on Jan 7 2015 here)
http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=970221&msg=2559213#msg2559213

This tax is actually opposed by a number of rabid eco-morons like the Sierra Club, who think it should not be revenue neutral and all the money should go to their pet causes.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 4, 2016 - 03:50pm PT
Irrelevant arguments:
Hypocrisy
There will always be hypocrites. They are irrelevant. As I said years ago on the other thread, Climate change control is a societal decision, not a personal one. Loopholes and exceptions don't change the science or the general solutions. As long as we have a society with freedom and large inequities, some people consume more than others. You can only provide incentives and disincentives and allow people to make their own choices.
Right now we incentivize large cars, large homes, sprawl, free roads, free emissions, free water pollution from countless spills and leaks, wars for oil, etc.

Airplane business will be hurt.
That is correct. Traveling is a large contributor to climate change.
snagglepuss

Mountain climber
Nov 4, 2016 - 04:12pm PT
Splatter is correct.

We can't solve the problem individually or all at once but we cam modify our lifestyles slightly and help. DMT thinks because he can't fix it himself and fix it today that he has a good reason to give up and quit. He is a tired worn out quitter who will be dealt with through generational turnover.

The best most of us can do is modify our lifestyles (food, mpg, voting choices, etc.) and help a little.
BobSFrankNose

Social climber
Seattle
Nov 4, 2016 - 04:16pm PT
August West, thanks for the cartoon, I looked its source up and it sure seems reliable and fact. Current path seems like the Al Gore predictions are well under way, as in any day now we fry.

Maemute, that is not an intelligent response. Just to be clear on what you are suggesting.

Are you saying that all of the current climate change and/or global warming is 100% human caused?

And, are you stating for a fact that all climate changes/global warming are 100% a result of C02 increases?

Are you also stating as fact that C02 changes are followed by temperature changes and if so, are you 100% dismissing all of the empirical evidence suggesting that C02 follows rather than proceeds temperature changes?

Certainly debatable in the scienetific community, but its still a big and non-consensus question of what comes first - C02 increases or temperature rising.

Careful here!

And, no one wants to answer the questions of what percent we are really responsible for and what percent we can really change or effect?

Am I really helping by driving a Prius while most of middle Africa cooks on open fires with local gathered wood and India and China have no state emission shops for their buggies.

snagglepuss

Mountain climber
Nov 4, 2016 - 04:22pm PT
DMT,

BS!!! You are in favor of quitting because it's hard and scary and uncertain.

If you were in favor of solutions you would have read the few I suggested and taken time to ponder them rather than cherry pick something to refute OUT OF CONTEXT.

Check Mate.
snagglepuss

Mountain climber
Nov 4, 2016 - 04:30pm PT
BobSFN,

Why don't you get off your lazy bum and use that thing the kids call Google?

You are Exhibit A on why this issue rages on. You want someone else to do all the heavy, uncomfortable, difficult lifting for you. Go to the NASA webpage and spend some time reading about climate change. Put on your big boy pants. You can do it.
snagglepuss

Mountain climber
Nov 4, 2016 - 04:31pm PT
Thanks DMT but it's not a game.
BobSFrankNose

Social climber
Seattle
Nov 4, 2016 - 04:57pm PT
Well Snagglepuss, I do, and I read a lot, and it is from Nasa and other webpages (as you call them) that present current and sometimes changing data. Not everything new is a conspiracy against the rich or fittest.

And,thanks for making the partial point that puss'es like you malign the sender rather than defend the questions. Personal attacks do little for mature thinking people.

You are Exhibit A thru Z why people are drifting away from believing in Climate Change. I used believe it and defend it. I thought all the data was in and the science was settled. You, still pushing the old agenda, not willing to accept any new information or challenge the norms (with its obvious apparent political and monetary influences) leads to ignorance.

Go ahead and quote the oft used 97% of researchers or scientist have reached a consensus - but don't bother to look at the independent evidence that this poll or statistic may be flawed. It is!

I honestly see more and more scientist, articles and data moving away from wholly anthropogenic global warming. What was predicted did NOT happen, or is NOT happening. And, 'after the fact' studies do not support the presupposed predictions or computer models.

Look, I have no skin in the game. Just like hearing and knowing the truth. History is full of examples of deniers of some sort or another, but history always vindicates the truth - and I see science and minds changing.

Or, you can continue to hump someone legs hoping for a 'noble' and 'holier than thou' persona.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 4, 2016 - 05:16pm PT
basic reading
http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
http://climate.nasa.gov/causes/
http://climate.nasa.gov/effects/
http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/land-ice/
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature-projections

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange
rbord

Boulder climber
atlanta
Nov 4, 2016 - 05:30pm PT
It's a good question - thanks for asking it! Like why aren't people more concerned about a Trump presidency? Why aren't more people concerned about a Clinton presidency?

IMHO, the causes and processes and reasons behind people's beliefs and behaviors is quickly becoming a much more important field for us to understand with respect to our species' survival.

But when you ask this question, mostly we jump to conclusions, and solutions, and arguments, without really understanding that those aren't really the questions that we most need to answer.

97% of scientists agree that the pace of climate change we are now seeing is anthropogenic. Yea scientists!

But so what? When you look at who is most or more concerned about it, there's a 30-50% difference in how severe the problem is, based on what? Partisan political association, of course. What do your friends think? How does that belief mesh with the pantheon of other beliefs that help you form your identity?

Who else is not really concerned about climate change? People in countries with high per capita carbon emissions - the US, Australia, Canada, Russia. Not the countries with less information, but the countries with more of a vested interest in believing that it's no big deal.

"Who believes what" is not based on facts.

Given (IMHO) the seriousness of this threat, and the escalating disassociation between humans and knowledge/objective information that we're witnessing in this election, and the increasing freedom that we have to validate and confirm whatever self-serving, bullshit belief we want to confirm, yea, I don't have the answers, but I do think that's the most important question that we're facing today - why do we believe the nonsense we believe?

IMHO, we need to lose our tendency towards the arrogant belief that we humans form beliefs based on objective information, and develop a better understanding of how those human belief processes really work, or it's not going to matter how good our science is, how convincing our arguments are (to ourselves), when we're mostly not even noticing our most important challenge, which IMHO is how to get people to believe the truth.

We're developing more and more powerful tools - more and more scientific understanding of reality, and how to manipulate and affect it. But we're not understanding how we humans who control that power work - how we form beliefs - and that lack of self-understanding is becoming a larger and larger existential threat.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Nov 4, 2016 - 05:32pm PT
To be a leader in Environmentalism you have to practice what you preach.

Look at your complete climbing resume, how many gallons of fuel made that happen?

People hear you say fossil fuels are going to kill humanity; yet you live a high carbon footprint lifestyle.

2016 NIMBY

I admire people that make personal sacrifice for the greater good. But no, I don't expect. I don't see Republicans, who are red in the face about the National Debt, voluntarily making extra tax payments in order to reduce it.

I support policies that would cause societal changes. For instance, I would support ramping up a carbon tax to say $100/tons over the next decade or two. That would make my fossil fuel electricity and my gallons of fuel more expensive.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Nov 4, 2016 - 05:39pm PT

Are you saying that all of the current climate change and/or global warming is 100% human caused?

And, are you stating for a fact that all climate changes/global warming are 100% a result of C02 increases?

Are you also stating as fact that C02 changes are followed by temperature changes and if so, are you 100% dismissing all of the empirical evidence suggesting that C02 follows rather than proceeds temperature changes?

Certainly debatable in the scienetific community, but its still a big and non-consensus question of what comes first - C02 increases or temperature rising.

Careful here!

And, no one wants to answer the questions of what percent we are really responsible for and what percent we can really change or effect?

Am I really helping by driving a Prius while most of middle Africa cooks on open fires with local gathered wood and India and China have no state emission shops for their buggies.

When you run computers that try and reproduce the climate/temperature changes of the past (going back as far as any sort of useful data can be determined), you can get good results when you include the rapid rise in CO2 of the last few decades. Without including that extra CO2, you can't reproduce the recent rise in temperatures. For practical purposes, all of the increase in the last 100 years CO2 is manmade. You don't get that quick of changes in CO2 from natural causes. (Volcanoes have some effect but the effect from volcanoes can be modeled, certainly over the last dozen decades when CO02 has really started rising.
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Nov 4, 2016 - 05:43pm PT
You are Exhibit A thru Z why people are drifting away from believing in Climate Change. I used believe it and defend it. I thought all the data was in and the science was settled.

That's because the science is settled.

I honestly see more and more scientist, articles and data moving away from wholly anthropogenic global warming.

Well, nobody ever said global warming was caused 100% by anthropogenic causes. Mankind is clearly driving it though.

What was predicted did NOT happen, or is NOT happening. And, 'after the fact' studies do not support the presupposed predictions or computer models.

You couldn't possibly be more wrong about that. While we can't prove that global warming is causing the weird weather events we are experiencing, the increasing drought in the southwest, increased rains and flooding in the midwest and east, etc. are exactly what the global warming model predicted.

Curt
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Nov 4, 2016 - 05:44pm PT
From a technical and economic perspective, I think drastic changes all possible over a few decades.

Politically. no.
Flip Flop

climber
Earth Planet, Universe
Nov 4, 2016 - 05:44pm PT
We've got enough popcorn and it's getting to the exciting part.
guyman

Social climber
Moorpark, CA.
Nov 4, 2016 - 05:53pm PT
I am very lucky to live "in the age of the car" .... I get to go climbing almost every weekend to some far away place, like Bishop or the Valley.

I pack on about 25,000 mile per year in my Honda.

You all can give up your cars, stop flying around and ride a bike everyplace.... think about all the GOOD your doing, my my... think about this... China is building new coal powered electrical plants at a furious pace...

we cant do squat to change it.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 4, 2016 - 06:21pm PT
The new electric Chevy Bolt has a range of 238 miles per EPA, maybe 200 miles in real life, with a 60 kW-hr battery. 0-60mph in 6.3 sec. If you really want more I'm sure you could figure out how to add another 30 kW-hr backup. People with home solar panels use little net electricity even with an e-car.
They don't have the fast charging network of Tesla yet, but e-cars and chargers are still new and improving.


Thanks to government incentives!
skitch

Gym climber
Bend Or
Topic Author's Reply - Nov 4, 2016 - 06:49pm PT
Thank god I don't have kids, and don't plan too. If I did I'd feel really guilty about the shape earth is, & will be. I just selfishly hope that I can afford to retire in 17 years, and the places I love aren't too miserable to enjoy from April to November.
BobSFrankNose

Social climber
Seattle
Nov 4, 2016 - 10:02pm PT
A couple of questions: Again, I really don’t have any skin in the game in that I am an absolute denier – nor am I a fanatical promoter of saving the planet from almost certain impending doom. Just an observer that likes to eventually find out the truth!


Malemut – your answer to several of my questions states that it is a biased and useless question. What parts? Are we, or are we not - as humans - responsible for the climate change? If we are, then how did we do it If we are not, then what can we do about it – realistically percentage wise. Your just parroting talking points.

You say: show me in Nature and Science. Nature and Science have been wrong before – and admitted it. In the late 80’s, Science published an article on psychiatric discriminates. It was peer reviewed and accepted. It was also published in the sister magazine in England – Nature. Turns out that most of the data – peer reviewed – was wrong and blatantly bogus. Companies developing patents around the new technology and data base lost hundreds of millions of dollars. They, of course, tried to sue, but Science just parroted: Peer reviewed, not our fault, peer reviewed, not our fault. Case closed.


Which brings up the publications of peer reviewed scientific articles. Isn’t that exactly what most of the Climate Gate 2009 email exposure was about – that of Michael Mann and Phil Jones (and dozens of others) regulating, overseeing, and controlling what was considered peer reviewed and acceptable? Seems that it was. And, regardless of how many you have personally read, cross-referenced, believe or support, or think were wrong or would ignore – thousands can’t all be wrong or made up or swept under a rug.


Take the time to read the whole story in whatever publication you believe – they all can’t be wrong. You have to admit –there was serious smoke that erupted in fire there and lead many to take a second look at the so called facts of the science and the publications - all peer reviewed!


So Malemut, I am taking the time to read basic stuff – and I get more enlightened about the possibility of overstating or exaggeration with everything I currently read – peer reviewed – of course.



I get what August West is saying – and I mostly believe it. Running computer models seems like a good way to start – but why different results now from what they really predicted and claim they initially got. I get that the emergency had to go out and the call to arms needed to be made – but for what reason, now - looking back.



Curt suggest that the science is settled. OK,(I don’t agree that science is ever settled ) but say it is regarding C02 and green house effects and everything else we currently understand about reflections, etc. So, again, why nothing happening. He suggests it is happening.

Really, watch Al Gore (and all of the Michael Mann/Phil Jones minions) again. Listen to their prophecies. Look at their time table and doomsday clock. It’s up, and nothing happened. Florida under water? Manhattan with water in the streets to mid town? North Pole will be ice free by 2015?

No Rapture, no Y2K, no mass migrations around the world and crop failures, nothing. But, global warming alarmist always get a pass. Because no matter what happens, it’s a change in the weather – so see, I told you so. Some warm areas, some cold, some rain somewhere, some hurricanes – like we have a real conceptual grasp of anything but the last few hundred years to compare to.


Is there more to this rush to judgment than saving the planet? Could it be money or global-political social engineering? What really drives the hysteria.

Why isn’t Malemut or Curt or others more worried about the Carrington Event in 1859 happening again – we are overdue! Why not freak out and try to warn everyone about the near miss reported on the NASA website of July 2012 when a huge coronal mass ejection tore through the earth’s orbit, but earth wasn’t home for the event – just barely missed us.


So, again I ask.

What percent of climate change are we humans responsible for?

Is it all the industrial age?

What percent of climate change is the rascally U.S. responsible for?

If we turn off the lights in the U.S., what percent of change will result in saving the world/planet? 1%? 10%? 0%?

If the whole world turns off the lights and goes completely out of business – what changes will result at this point in saving the planet?


My prediction, my computer model. Nothing will happen significantly in the coming years. The earth will roll on and absorb the mess (as it has before). Technology will vastly improve the C02 problem and a number of other so-called life threatening events.

Just my 2cents and now I'm bored with it.


Jon Nelson

Boulder climber
Bellingham, WA
Nov 4, 2016 - 10:47pm PT
Malemute wrote:
^ I studied IR (infrared) and Raman spectroscopy in university.
You are wrong.

https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/greenhousegases/properties.html
...

That's nice that you studied those things. I suppose that is supposed to make you right?

The blanket analogy is, as I said, a wrong analogy. Sure, the gases and particles absorb some IR, but that absorption does not determine what they emit. What they emit, as you know, is determined by their temperature and their emissivity. And what you do not seem to know is that the temperature of the troposphere is determined by convection and thermodynamics.



Do you know why it is colder at higher elevations? Air that rises loses energy. Radiation has nothing to do with it. We model it accurately with only thermodynamics.

As I said, the 'greenhouse' misnomer is unfortunate. There is an effect, and it is indeed very large. But about the actual mechanism, be careful about believing what you see in these simplified diagrams.

Al Barkamps

Social climber
Red Stick
Nov 6, 2016 - 05:30pm PT
Moose, I don't agree with much that utilities have said in the past regarding solar generation, but on this, I agree. Rooftop solar generators (and others) get a "free ride" that others, especially the poor, help subsidize.

It's all well and good to feed your excess energy back into the grid and receive cash back for it, but the costs of your usage of that same grid get picked up by non-solar generators who must then pick up those added costs. This should end....another instance of greenwashing crappy energy policy that ends up costing poor people the most.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 6, 2016 - 07:29pm PT
Al,
Making users of brown energy pay for their external costs is a GOOD thing.
For 100 years we have FAILED to charge emissions and pollution sources for the damage they create.
But that shifting generally doesn't fall onto the poor, since we subsidize utility bills for the poor in most states. And in California we have higher rates for higher usage brackets.

Washington state proposal Lots of details Here: https://yeson732.org/faq/
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Nov 6, 2016 - 07:42pm PT
"the damage they create" is what we call modern life.

"the damage they create" is more than outweighed by greatly increased life expectancy, and infant mortality near zero.

"the damage they create" powers the machines that do things like harvest our food, wash our clothes, and vacuum our floors, freeing up time for us to do other things - like cure diseases and climb rocks.
jgill

Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
Nov 6, 2016 - 08:08pm PT
Maybe it's the hypocrisy:

"Public records reveal that as Gore lectures Americans on excessive consumption, he and his wife Tipper live in two properties: a 10,000-square-foot, 20-room, eight-bathroom home in Nashville, and a 4,000-square-foot home in Arlington, Va. (He also has a third home in Carthage, Tenn.) For someone rallying the planet to pursue a path of extreme personal sacrifice, Gore requires little from himself"
Al Barkamps

Social climber
Red Stick
Nov 6, 2016 - 08:48pm PT
For someone rallying the planet to pursue a path of extreme personal sacrifice, Gore requires little from himself

But....but....So many people depend on him!

:)
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Nov 7, 2016 - 06:50am PT
Don't listen to Al Gore. Look at the data and listen to the scientists involved.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 7, 2016 - 06:57am PT

(Marrakech, 4 November 2016) – A big green light for faster, stronger climate action was switched on today as the Paris Climate Change Agreement entered into force, only three days before the start of this year’s UN Climate Change Conference in Marrakech.

“The Paris Agreement’s ambitious and essential goals are now a live reality for every government. From today, ever-increasing climate action becomes an accepted responsibility and a central part of the sustainable development plans of all countries,” said Patricia Espinosa, Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

“It’s just bullshit for them to say: ‘We’ll have a 2C warming target and then try to do a little better every five years.’ It’s just worthless words. There is no action, just promises. As long as fossil fuels appear to be the cheapest fuels out there, they will be continued to be burned.” -James Hansen
Banquo

climber
Amerricka
Nov 7, 2016 - 07:01am PT
"Truth" does not exist. This is what conspiracy theory nut jobs (CTNJ) don't understand. The scientific method does not seek and cannot find a single absolute truth. To have truth requires faith and religion is where you find that.

Faith did not get jumbo jets to fly. Science did. Science is about the practical and useful, not truth seeking.

Name one absolute truth. Will the sun come up tomorrow? Probably but there is some very tiny probability that it will not. That probability is very small and I personally will, for practical purposes, assume that the sun will come up tomorrow. A CSNJ might claim the sun won't come up someday and the government is hiding the "truth" from us.

What good science does is take all the available data and create a model that fits the data. The model is useful but may be flawed. As new and better data becomes available, the model may be refined or replaced. We should work with the best model that we have at any given time. At one time the earth was considered flat and that worked well enough. Then we found that round worked better so we went with that. Now it isn't exactly round so we have refined that model.

Scientific tools tell us how to calculate a trajectory to Mars. The tools are not exact (true) so along the way we still need to adjust the path.

The current best data and model is that human activity is warming the planet. A person who understands science will happily tell you that human influenced climate change is not a "truth" but it is what experts qualified in the field believe right now. Unless you are an expert qualified in the field, I don't care what your model for climate change is.

The black swan theory. A scientist goes out and looks at as many swans as he can find. This is 19th century England and he can't afford to randomize and sample the whole world population of swans but he looks at the ones he can find. This is the best science available to him at the time. He finds 1000 swans and they are all white. His theory is then that all swans are white (ASAW). He is quite smart and has an understanding of statistics and probability. He knows his sampling isn't perfect and that he hasn't seen all of the swans that there are. He can't claim ASAW is a "truth" but he can use ASAW as a useful approximation for his daily expectations. If he ever acquires reliable data about the existence of a black or pink swan, he will need to adjust his theory but ASAW may still be fine for his daily life.

The real problem is that most people decide what they want to believe and then set about justifying it while disregarding probability. Most people do not practice, do not understand or probably don't even know about objective, critical thinking.

Read "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics winner Daniel Kahneman.

Read Karl Popper for a different take on the scientific method.

The aptly named James Reason has written several books on human error that are worth reading.

After you have read those, get back to me and let me know what you think.
WBraun

climber
Nov 7, 2016 - 07:16am PT
Banquo -- "Truth" does not exist.

Banquo -- Name one absolute truth.

Banquo -- "Truth" does not exist.

You made an absolute, you are a hypocrite .....
John M

climber
Nov 7, 2016 - 07:18am PT
this is interesting. The Inuit are saying that the pole has shifted. Not just the magnetic pole, but the physical pole.

http://www.neonnettle.com/sphere/375-inuit-elders-issue-official-warning-to-nasa-the-earth-has-shifted-
Al Barkamps

Social climber
Red Stick
Nov 7, 2016 - 07:20am PT
That's far too much heady stuff for today's "post factual" society, Banquo. If this election cycle has proved anything it's that a very significant and influential segment of our population doesn't care about "facts" or "reason". Hell, even some here have "reasoned" their own twisted way into "facts" of their own making...all evidence to the contrary be damned.

WBraun

climber
Nov 7, 2016 - 07:32am PT
The absolute fact is:

The further humanity's consciousness strays from nature the more the climate will change to make humanity suffer ......
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Nov 7, 2016 - 07:38am PT
I wouldn't laugh too hard, Moose, the Inuit are some of the smartest people I've known.
WBraun

climber
Nov 7, 2016 - 07:40am PT
Yes ....

Modern scientists are puffed up with scientism and hypocrisy ......
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Nov 7, 2016 - 07:56am PT
Keep it moving folks, nothing to see here...

http://climate.nasa.gov/news/2510/see-how-arctic-sea-ice-is-losing-its-bulwark-against-warming-summers/
John M

climber
Nov 7, 2016 - 08:04am PT
I don't believe he is laughing at the idea the the inuit are incapable of schooling NASA.. It more just the picture of the little guy up against the big boys. At least thats they way I read moose. My moose tracker might be off. hahaha..

John M.. formerly known as moosie.

edit" he beat me too it.

oops. and I was wrong.. hmmm
WBraun

climber
Nov 7, 2016 - 08:06am PT
Modern science brains are wobbling .....
NutAgain!

Trad climber
South Pasadena, CA
Nov 7, 2016 - 08:41am PT
I get that some people lack the education or the intellectual capacity to appreciate the beauty of mathematics, to feel the joy of creating an engineering project that performs as expected, to heal a sick person, the awesome power to give life where nature would have taken it, the deep satisfaction of examining a seemingly impossible and complex problem and breaking it down into smaller steps and through dogged persistence and application of the scientific method to find answers for the parts and assemble them into a whole, to take a spot of human ignorance and turn it into a spot of human insight.

I understand that for some people, these things being forever out of grasp, they grab onto what they can, which is faith that a higher power will make everything ok for them and their families.

What I don't get is why such people don't embrace scientists and engineers and physicians as their higher power, as people who overcome impossibilities to make life easier, healthier, etc. Why is our history filled with fear of the occult, persecution of witches, and in general the defilement of people that tangibly and demonstrably improve the lives of people around them?

Are people so petty that they are jealous of others having more power and ability than themselves? This was my experience of high school in an area where few went on to college. Or is it fear and insecurity that those with more power will squash them as inconsequential bugs? By believing in an elusive higher power outside the domain of a person with more power in this world, does it give a person more dignity or more power in this world? Maybe just more "peace of mind" is enough. But that peace of mind is expensive when it comes with a pride or egoism that forbids the acceptance of good and real things in this world. Fear of knowledge is a deeply anchored foundation of faith-based religions- don't eat the forbidden fruit. Lest ye be cast from the garden of Eden. Ignorance is bliss. So many people trying to find their way back to it.


Jody, why do you selectively use the parts of human knowledge that serve you well (optical lenses, transistor physics for light collection and data storage, and everything that makes the Internet possible) while spitting on the parts that don't give you a short-term gratification?

There is a difference between faith-based religion where nobody can prove any of it, and it is by definition a leap of faith, versus reason-based science where each piece can be logically demonstrated and proven through a set of previously established facts and experiments. The biggest trap many people seem to fall into is to confuse these two, because they don't understand any bit of science and it is all just as much a leap of faith for them. Just because you are ignorant (literally, IGNORING the data in front of you and the whole opportunity for education presented to you in school so you would be able to decipher fact from fiction and perform your own experiments or data validation to decide what is real)- I say again, just because you choose to be ignorant, does not mean that science requires a leap of faith. There are educated guesses based on observations, but the veracity of these increase or decrease with time based on logical tests and independent collections of observations that agree or disagree with the original hypothesis.


^^^^

That is what I wrote, but what will be perceived is "blab bla bla you're stupid bla bla bla" and the world keeps turning and half the world continues to benefit from the work of the people they spit on. Same as it ever was.


Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Nov 7, 2016 - 08:56am PT
this is interesting. The Inuit are saying that the pole has shifted. Not just the magnetic pole, but the physical pole.

Interesting, but this phenomenon has been understood for a couple thousand years now.

http://astro.wsu.edu/worthey/astro/html/lec-precession.html

Curt
c wilmot

climber
Nov 7, 2016 - 09:04am PT
It can be argued that math and science are precisely to blame for climate change. Had we stayed an agrarian society instead of becoming an industrial one our carbon footprint would not be nearly as bad. More so the people engineering our increasingly automated society are the ones creating more climate change while reaping the profits From the waste and pollution produced as a result. They are also usually living lavish lifestyles well beyond what is necessary. Do these people really care about climate change? Perhaps the peasant masses don't bow down because people with power like Bono who preach the most are often the worst offenders. Not to mention that power and success are not a measure of value as a human. And what your "better" than someone else at can quickly become inconsequential. As Many egostistical athletes find out when their superiority is lost to injury
John M

climber
Nov 7, 2016 - 09:08am PT
Fear of knowledge is a deeply anchored foundation of faith-based religions

maybe in some churches, but not in any of the churches that I belonged to. I grew up in the Baptist church. And my family reached out to people of many different faiths. we had all kinds of scientists visiting and staying with us. My father worked for aero Jet test firing rocket engines.

There is a movement in the fundamentalist church that interprets the bible literally. Its these people who have trouble with science. But to say that all faith based religions have a fear of knowledge is ignorant.

Edit: Moose.. not trolling, but I do see your point about the telescopes not tracking. I was genuinely interested in why the Inuit would say that the Sun is setting in a different place then it had for years. They live outdoors. They don't use electronics. They depend on their observations of nature.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Nov 7, 2016 - 09:23am PT
Moosie, there are different ways of seeing. I 'saw' for the first time in an Inuit 'sweat' lodge. ;-)
Banquo

climber
Amerricka
Nov 7, 2016 - 09:27am PT
Those interested should also read Bronislaw Malinowski's Magic Science and Religion, 1948. He says that no society, no matter how primitive, practices magic, science and religion.

Science is learning that water helps plants grow and cooking improves food. Observable and useful. A person can intervene on their own part.

Magic is trying to influence the course of nature that is not understood by science. Magic is usually some sort of rites and rituals. A person typically asks somebody else, a shaman perhaps, to intervene on their part.

Religion is an effort to control things so abstract that we don't really understand what it is such as the afterlife. We ask some imagined higher power to intervene on our behalf.

As science advances, the need for magic and religion declines. Sadly, most religion is static and resists this advance of civilization. Most of our population has difficulty accepting advances in science that are inconvenient while heartily accepting the conveniences.
WBraun

climber
Nov 7, 2016 - 09:32am PT
Banquo -- "We ask some imagined higher power to intervene on our behalf."

Another absolute made by the very same person who claims there are no absolutes.

Hypocrisy and scientism ....... again .....
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Nov 7, 2016 - 11:58am PT
Hey without science we would not have nylon ropes
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Nov 7, 2016 - 12:07pm PT
What could be more appropriate for dirtbags?
WBraun

climber
Nov 7, 2016 - 12:11pm PT
without science

Yes

Without science, there wouldn't be anything at all just about.

Thus science is absolute and is also absolutely required for knowledge.

The modern science has been watered down to cherry picking and biased by poor incomplete consciousness.

Thus the modern scientists are absolute hypocrites and preaching scientism by saying there are no absolutes .....
Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Nov 7, 2016 - 12:28pm PT
In fact, about the only place left on Earth where lawmakers openly and avidly deny the science of climate change is the U.S. Congress. More to the point, says Sen. Brian Schatz, a Democrat from Hawaii and a leader on climate policy, "There is only one major political party in the world that denies the existence of climate change. And it happens to be in charge of the most important political body in the world."

Good reads here

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/why-republicans-still-reject-the-science-of-global-warming-w448023
Banquo

climber
Amerricka
Nov 7, 2016 - 12:46pm PT
Werner,

Banquo is a fictional character in a very old story - an abstraction. Don't take anything he says too seriously or literally. Yes, he is a hypocrite. He is morally bound to be because he took a hypocritical oath.
10b4me

Mountain climber
Retired
Nov 7, 2016 - 02:14pm PT
So why do the deniers deny it?
It's really no skin off their teeth.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 8, 2016 - 07:57am PT
The twenty-second session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 22) and the twelfth session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP 12) will be held in Bab Ighli, Marrakech, Morocco from 7-18 November 2016.

On 5 October 2016, the threshold for entry into force of the Paris Agreement was achieved. The Paris Agreement entered into force on 4 November 2016. As a result, the first session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA 1) will take place in Marrakech in conjunction with COP 22 and CMP 12.

BEIJING—China’s government said it would raise coal power capacity by as much as 20% by 2020, ensuring a continuing strong role for the commodity in the country’s energy sector despite a pledge to bring down pollution levels.

In a new five-year plan for electricity released Monday, the National Energy Administration said it would raise coal-fired power capacity from around 900 gigawatts last year to as high as 1,100 gigawatts by 2020. The roughly 200-gigawatt increase alone is more than the total power capacity of Canada.

By announcing a huge increase in coal power on the first day of this year's climate conference, China is sending the World a clear message.
Chewybacca

Trad climber
Kelly Morgan, Whitefish MT
Nov 8, 2016 - 08:08am PT
If people don't care about the 3.4 million people who die every year from air pollution caused by burning fossil fuels, why would they care about the effects of ACC?
jgill

Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
Nov 8, 2016 - 01:59pm PT
whether or not humankind is to blame, unchangeable patterns have been established that may lead to dramatic consequences.
The next century may see electrical aquacars navigating the lakes of Miami.

But keep pedaling.
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Nov 8, 2016 - 02:07pm PT
Check out Harold Wanless for a grim view of the future Florida underwater.
He is a respected scientist and a great guy.
Jon Nelson

Boulder climber
Bellingham, WA
Nov 9, 2016 - 05:08pm PT
It means I know how & why greenhouse gas molecules absorb the PHOTONS of infrared radiation, and release PHOTONS of infrared radiation.

Sure, the gases and particles absorb some IR, but that absorption does not determine what they emit
You don't have a clue.

Carbon Dioxide Absorbs and Re-emits Infrared Radiation

http://scied.ucar.edu/carbon-dioxide-absorbs-and-re-emits-infrared-radiation

Read this & educate yourself
http://butane.chem.uiuc.edu/pshapley/genchem1/l15/web-l15.pdf




Do you know what these images show? Do you know why there are discrete spikes?

Your uninformed opinions mean squat.

Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf&AD=AD0709894

The answer to the second two questions are yes, to a degree. Could be I understand radiation more than you. But I am not here to argue from authority or to list my qualifications. That's not how ideas are settled.

Anyway, I was making a point about the so-called greenhouse effect, not the physics of radiation. It is a widely misunderstood effect, and much larger than commonly thought.

Your errors were in the atmospheric science, not the radiation, as I explained. But they are common errors. I am sorry that I offended you by pointing that out. Peace.



Brandon-

climber
The Granite State.
Nov 15, 2016 - 12:56pm PT
If anyone's interested, Chiloe was on my local NPR station (WEVO) this morning talking about a study that he's the lead on, regarding climate change acceptance and partisanship. I'd always guessed that he was involved in environmental sociology, and this is that sort of thing.

Nice job dude!

On the radio;
nhpr.org/post/unh-research-shows-political-leanings-can-affect-perceptions-climate-change

The whole enchilada;
http://soc.sagepub.com/content/50/5/913.full.pdf
BobSFrankNose

Social climber
Seattle
Nov 15, 2016 - 03:06pm PT
Don't worry Jon Nelson, Malemut doesn't answer questions - he just keeps plugging away with his propaganda and current talking points.

No response from him from weeks ago regarding this below.


From November 4th, 2016

Malemut – your answer to several of my questions states that it is a biased and useless question. What parts? Are we, or are we not - as humans - responsible for the climate change? If we are, then how did we do it If we are not, then what can we do about it – realistically percentage wise. Your just parroting talking points.

You say: show me in Nature and Science. Nature and Science have been wrong before – and admitted it. In the late 80’s, Science published an article on psychiatric discriminates. It was peer reviewed and accepted. It was also published in the sister magazine in England – Nature. Turns out that most of the data – peer reviewed – was wrong and blatantly bogus. Companies developing patents around the new technology and data base lost hundreds of millions of dollars. They, of course, tried to sue, but Science just parroted: Peer reviewed, not our fault, peer reviewed, not our fault. Case closed.


Which brings up the publications of peer reviewed scientific articles. Isn’t that exactly what most of the Climate Gate 2009 email exposure was about – that of Michael Mann and Phil Jones (and dozens of others) regulating, overseeing, and controlling what was considered peer reviewed and acceptable? Seems that it was. And, regardless of how many you have personally read, cross-referenced, believe or support, or think were wrong or would ignore – thousands can’t all be wrong or made up or swept under a rug.


Take the time to read the whole story in whatever publication you believe – they all can’t be wrong. You have to admit –there was serious smoke that erupted in fire there and lead many to take a second look at the so called facts of the science and the publications - all peer reviewed!


So Malemut, I am taking the time to read basic stuff – and I get more enlightened about the possibility of overstating or exaggeration with everything I currently read – peer reviewed – of course.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 15, 2016 - 03:17pm PT
BobS,
it is unlikely anyone is going to waste their time attempting to explain basic accepted science to you. The information you should read has already been posted numerous times. Why didn't you read it then? After thousands of repeated attempts at reason, why would further repeats have a different effect this time?
Any remaining climate deniers in the world are generally so emotionally and religiously invested that they are immune to reason.
Anyone who brings up fake issues like "climategate" or a magazine from the 70s is hopelessly unscientific.
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Nov 15, 2016 - 03:30pm PT
Under Trump a lot less may be concerned, especially when he gets the govt stacked with flat Earth creationists
BobSFrankNose

Social climber
Seattle
Nov 15, 2016 - 04:09pm PT
No problem Splater, I completely understand. If you and others keep saying 'the science is settled' long enough, and attacking anyone who raises a question with the 'your stupid' factor - you think eventually everyone will agree with you - if anyone is left even interested.

The article mentioned was from Science and also published in Nature - your standards in this thread of what should be looked at as the gold standard. It was not from the 70's, but 1989. It was peer reviewed! It was bullshit! And they admitted it. Just one example.

And, just by you calling 'ClimateGate' fake - does not sweep all of the readable evidence under a rug. I am sure you wish it could. Perhaps you could explain why is it fake, or just a fraction of the conflicts it presents of maybe exaggerating or overstating a few peoples desired and paid for outcomes.

I like your word 'reason'. Reason seems to be based on empirical evidence, and (as you should know) empirical evidence is based on verifiable observations and experience - not theory.

So, we have about .74 degrees shift for about 100 years of data after the fact, and we have maybe less than a half of a degree of shift (warmer or cooling - experts can't quite decide) in the last 16 years, AND nothing you predicted in a catastrophic way came true.

Fact!

Give it up pal. It ain't working for your prophets of doom.
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Nov 15, 2016 - 04:18pm PT
Some good reading here for those who still have their head in the sand. Not that it will make any difference to them.

Although scientific opinion on climate change is that human activity is extremely likely to be the primary driver of climate change,[12][13] the politics of global warming have been affected by climate change denial, hindering efforts to prevent climate change and adapt to the warming climate.[14][15][16] Those promoting denial commonly use rhetorical tactics to give the appearance of a scientific controversy where there is none.[17][18]

...In his final chapter, Gordin turns to the new phase of pseudoscience, practiced by a few rogue scientists themselves. Climate change denialism is the prime example, where a handful of scientists, allied with an effective PR machine, are publicly challenging the scientific consensus that global warming is real and is due primarily to human consumption of fossil fuels. Scientists have watched in disbelief that as the evidence for global warming has become ever more solid, the deniers have been increasingly successful in the public and political arena. … Today pseudoscience is still with us, and is as dangerous a challenge to science as it ever was in the past.[126]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_denial

Curt
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 15, 2016 - 04:33pm PT
Turns out more folks are more concerned in calling it a hoax than trying to negate it.
More pipelines,fracking and lets burn some more coal.
Let's make America great again.

Maybe we can get some Acid Rain going again.
The Chief would call me a hipocrite......lol.
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Nov 15, 2016 - 05:14pm PT
Again, those who either deny science or don't understand it will probably be unfazed, but...


Curt
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Nov 15, 2016 - 05:21pm PT
that warming stall between 1946-1980 is attributed to increasing aerosol emissions (which cool the climate). In the 1980's we decreased man made aerosol and temperate increases started taking off
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 15, 2016 - 05:31pm PT
We should definitely add some aerosols.hs
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Nov 15, 2016 - 05:39pm PT
The cause has been established, Curt.

What do you DO about it?

Sometimes I think you guys would rather argue with each other over the cause than to actually do anything.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Nov 15, 2016 - 05:50pm PT
The answer to the second two questions are yes, to a degree. Could be I understand radiation more than you. But I am not here to argue from authority or to list my qualifications. That's not how ideas are settled.

Anyway, I was making a point about the so-called greenhouse effect, not the physics of radiation. It is a widely misunderstood effect, and much larger than commonly thought.

Your errors were in the atmospheric science, not the radiation, as I explained. But they are common errors. I am sorry that I offended you by pointing that out. Peace.



Jon Nelson, in your attack on Malemute you do a poor job of explaining where he is wrong for the rest of us. You should try harder. When Malemute first mentioned the effect the of the cloud he was correct, regardless of mentioning the blanket. The water vapor in the cloud creates more of a localized warming effect that just the co2 in the atmosphere that it is located in. What you say about calling it the radiation effect is fine, but the blanket is fine too in describing an increased localized effect because of the way a cloud (H2O molecules ) temporarily adds to the effect of the CO2 that is already there. The word CLOUD for information storage is not a great analogy either, but we all understand what it means. Why the animosity? So, do you think Humans are causing the climate change and warming?
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 15, 2016 - 05:56pm PT
Chas ,thanks , I live off the grid and only burn biodiesel,thanks for being like The Chief.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Shetville , North of Los Angeles
Nov 15, 2016 - 05:59pm PT
People aren't more concerned about it because we all need gas fueled cars to commute and earn a living...Any bad news that goes against the grain of earning a living is easily dismissed especially when the people supplying the oil calm the consumers fear by telling them climate change is a hoax...Kind of like the tobacco companies telling their addicts that smoking doesn't cause cancer...
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 15, 2016 - 06:02pm PT
Fact:
Warming 1.1 degree C so far (1.6 degrees F) over the last 100 years, most of which has occurred since 1970.
1970 is about when global CO2 levels really blasted off.
And the warming rate is more like .15 C per decade over the last 40 years,
and .2 C per decade over the last 30 years.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/2c-201609.html

(Curt's chart above is zeroed at about the year 1950; add another .23 C to zero it at about 1915.)

We are quite on the path predicted by the accepted scientific consensus (which is determined by thousands of experts, not some little nutty self-confirming nonsense pulled off breitfart).

http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models-accurately-predicting-ocean-global-warming.html

http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?c=6

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature-projections

more basics I posted before

http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
http://climate.nasa.gov/causes/
http://climate.nasa.gov/effects/
http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/land-ice/
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange

BobSFrankNose

Social climber
Seattle
Nov 15, 2016 - 06:09pm PT
O.K., Curt, I'll play along with the; 'type in google what you want to hear, search for it' and then cut and paste to supertopo!

Wow, Look what I found. See facts back up what I am saying. Even the New York Times in reporting (the paper that said yesterday, sorry to its reader for lying, and they will try to be more honest in the future).


As a long time legal analyst and attorney, I am only interested in the demonstrable facts, eye witnesses, and after the fact outcomes. Each side can drum up their own expert witness to testify complete opposites - and each sound so damn smart and convincing.

I'm not effected by emotion, or religion, or trumpisms. No interest in any of them. Are you?


My questions - still unanswered - were honest questions about hyperbole, exaggerations and false alarms, and if some might have skin in the game or money rewards for their opinions and alarms they were setting off.

Still don't know, as everyone just circle jerks each other with new cut and paste unreadable junk, and calls the honest inquirer the fool.

But, if anyone is just slightly confused or newly skeptical, and you wonder why all this hysteria of global warming and six feet of water coming to Miami could be true - google the 'CCX', 'cap and trade' reasons, Gore's company called 'GMI', 'Goldman Sachs Asset Management', and the trillions of dollars out there for the taking.

I'm again bored with this!




Posted on September 5, 2016 by John Hinderaker in Climate

Will 2016 Be the Hottest Year On Record?
“On record” meaning since the 1880s, i.e., the end of the Little Ice Age. The year is a long way from being over, but I will venture a guess that the alarmists will claim 2016, when in the books, was the hottest year evah. One problem, as we have pointed out many times, is that the books have been cooked.
The keeper of the U.S. temperature records is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which is paid to be on board with global warming hysteria. How does NOAA stir up alarm? By changing the historic temperature record to make the past look cooler and the present warmer. Icecap explains:
NOAA shows July temperatures increasing at 1.0F per century since 1895, with 2012 tied with 1936 as the hottest July.

It looks like there could be a little global warming going on, right? But the temperatures reported by NOAA are not the ones that were actually recorded. This is what the same graph looks like, before NOAA’s “adjustments.”

Oops. No global warming. Icecap quantifies the impact of NOAA’s “adjustments.”
The actual raw temperature data they use to generate their graph, shows one tenth as much warming from 1895 to 2016, with 1901, 1936 and 1934 as the hottest years.
If 1895 is removed, there is no warming at all.
***
NOAA creates this warming by massively cooling the past. They got rid of the hot 1901 by cooling it 2.13 degrees. They cooled 1936 by by 1.13 degrees and cooled 1934 by 1.11 degrees. That is what it took to elevate 2012 to the hottest July.
Emphasis added. So NOAA’s “adjustments” increase global warming by 1,000%. Gosh! Why might they do that?
The claimed warming trend in the US is completely fake, and is altered by people at NOAA who are being paid to push the global warming agenda. Before they were paid to push anthropogenic warming, the very same people at NOAA (i.e. Tom Karl) knew that there was no US warming.

That was reported by the New York Times, before the Times understood how global warming hysteria could be used to augment the power of government.
These NOAA data relate to the U.S., which comprises only a tiny percentage of the Earth’s surface. But, as Icecap points out, the U.S. data are critical to the warmist cause:
The US makes up less than 10% of the land surface, but contains the majority of the high quality long term temperature monitoring stations for this planet. The global surface temperature record is a farce, which is why the US data is so important.
As I have said many times before, catastrophic anthropogenic global warming alarmism is not an honest scientific mistake. It is a fraud, perpetrated for the usual reasons–money and power.

Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 15, 2016 - 06:14pm PT
^^^ >>Bobstroll

100% troll nonsense idiocy garbage fake

Why did you start a new account just to post this tripe?
How much are you being paid by Koch, ALEC, Heartland?
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Shetville , North of Los Angeles
Nov 15, 2016 - 06:16pm PT
Splater...Thanks for the info but the people who need to read this are too busy celebrating Trumps victory and loading their Razors , dirtbikes , and portable honda generators onto their 2016 , bitchin , 10MPG Cummins Diesel ...
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Nov 15, 2016 - 06:17pm PT
Robert L writes:

" Stop eating mass-farmed cattle
Ride your bike and walk for transport whenever possible. Otherwise catch public transport. Otherwise hold-off travel till more can be achieved in the one trip. Otherwise car pool.
Don't buy anything that is designed to fail or go out of fashion within 2-years "


If you look around the planet, the countries where the people do those things - like China, India - have the worst environmental problems.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Nov 15, 2016 - 06:23pm PT
^^^
100% troll nonsense idiocy garbage fake

Fake alright. We have a relatively honest conversation going here with everyone else. It's easy to spot the trolls isn't it? He is only bored because he knows zilch about the subject. I was going to say the same about him 'working' for the other side.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 15, 2016 - 06:23pm PT
Good post Chaz.
Mchale as well.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Nov 15, 2016 - 07:06pm PT
The Zen of spotting trolls!
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Nov 15, 2016 - 08:01pm PT
Let's make America great again.

Maybe we can get some Acid Rain going again.
The Chief would call me a hipocrite......lol.

I want my dioxins back.

Scratch that. I want Trumps EPA pick (whoever that is) to have them...
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 16, 2016 - 07:56am PT
I love this drama. Reminds me of the old-timey bible-thumpers... preaching hellfire and damnation for all non-believers.
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Nov 16, 2016 - 08:22am PT
As a long time legal analyst and attorney...

Oh, that might be the problem--you may not understand how science works. Still, I'd think your standard then should be either a preponderance of the evidence or reasonable doubt. And, with respect to climate science even the higher standard has been met by those who understand the data. Anthropogenic global warming is very real beyond any reasonable doubt.

Curt
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Nov 16, 2016 - 08:26am PT
So what do we DO about it?

I think you'd rather argue about the cause ( which is already settled ) than to do anything about it, or you'd be talking about a course of action.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 16, 2016 - 08:45am PT
^^^carbon tax - recognized as the most effective way to efficiently change carbon emission behavior.
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Nov 16, 2016 - 08:47am PT
Has ten years of Cap & Trade in California had any measureable effect?
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 16, 2016 - 09:15am PT


Sea ice loss is accelerating in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS). Assessing potential linkages between sea ice retreat/thinning and the region's ancient and unique social–ecological systems is a pressing task. Tundra nomadism remains a vitally important livelihood for indigenous Nenets and their large reindeer herds. Warming summer air temperatures have been linked to more frequent and sustained summer high-pressure systems over West Siberia, Russia, but not to sea ice retreat. At the same time, autumn/winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events have become more frequent and intense. Here, we review evidence for autumn atmospheric warming and precipitation increases over Arctic coastal lands in proximity to BKS ice loss. Two major ROS events during November 2006 and 2013 led to massive winter reindeer mortality episodes on the Yamal Peninsula. Fieldwork with migratory herders has revealed that the ecological and socio-economic impacts from the catastrophic 2013 event will unfold for years to come. The suggested link between sea ice loss, more frequent and intense ROS events and high reindeer mortality has serious implications for the future of tundra Nenets nomadism.
Biology Letters Nov 2016
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 16, 2016 - 09:35am PT
Has ten years of Cap & Trade in California had any measureable effect?

are you asking this as a rhetorical question? if so, be less coy.

Cap & Trade is not a carbon tax... however, the most successful environmental mitigation, the reduction of CFC emission into the atmosphere, was based on Cap & Trade. This was an international agreement coming out of the Montreal Protocol, that curtailed the production of CFCs and decreased the amount of human released gases responsible for ozone layer depletion.

California Cap & Trade compliance became law in 2013, nearly four years ago...
the California GDP has been growing, the CO2 emissions per $GDP have been declining...

sounds like it is working.
kunlun_shan

Mountain climber
SF, CA
Nov 16, 2016 - 09:47am PT
^^ Thanks, Ed!

https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/capandtrade/capandtrade.htm

https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/capandtrade/guidance/cap_trade_overview.pdf
Brandon-

climber
The Granite State.
Nov 16, 2016 - 09:52am PT
Did anyone read the articles in my post from yesterday?

It directly relates to the title of the thread.

http://nhpr.org/post/unh-research-shows-political-leanings-can-affect-perceptions-climate-change

http://soc.sagepub.com/content/50/5/913.full.pdf
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 16, 2016 - 10:00am PT
^reading it right now Brandon - this is the same stuff that my partner does. TFPU!
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Nov 16, 2016 - 10:51am PT

Those of you who want to see fundamental changes in human society? You need to recruit better sales people. The ones who have taken the jobs now can't sell sh#t.

Oh and a replacement for fossil fuels... that would be good too.

DMT

I expect the world to keep making some minor changes. For instance, concerns about climate change has caused more money to poor into renewables like solar and wind then would have happened otherwise.

But my expectations for change anywhere on the scale that is needed is quite low.

It's like arguing with a drug addict. I think making the argument is the humane thing to do. I think the prognosis is grim.

My hope for future Schadenfreude: I hope 30 years from now that all the climate deniers who troll on the internet have grandkids that can go back and read all the denials they posted...
Al Barkamps

Social climber
Red Stick
Nov 16, 2016 - 12:22pm PT
If you look around the planet, the countries where the people do those things - like China, India - have the worst environmental problems.

Linking those two things as causative makes absolutely zero sense.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 16, 2016 - 02:25pm PT
The U.S. Geological Survey has made its largest discovery of recoverable crude ever under parts of West Texas, the federal agency announced Tuesday.

A recent assessment found the “Wolfcamp shale” geologic formation in the Midland area holds an estimated 20 billion barrels of accessible oil along with 16 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 1.6 billion barrels of natural gas liquids. That’s three times higher than the amount of recoverable crude the agency found in the Bakken-Three Forks region in the upper midwest in 2013, making it “the largest estimated continuous oil accumulation that USGS has assessed in the United States to date,” according to a statement.

“The fact that this is the largest assessment of continuous oil we have ever done just goes to show that, even in areas that have produced billions of barrels of oil, there is still the potential to find billions more,” said Walter Guidroz, program coordinator for the USGS Energy Resources Program.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Nov 16, 2016 - 03:23pm PT
carbon tax - recognized as the most effective way to efficiently change carbon emission behavior.

Ed, cap and trade can work the same as a carbon tax. Technically, any effluent charge can create the optimal amount of effluent discharge. Germany proved that in the Ruhr basin more than 50 years ago.

With that very minor qualification, you're absolutely correct. If you don't impose a cost on costly actions, you'll get too much of them.

I think you'd rather argue about the cause ( which is already settled )

I'm not sure that's entirely true. As Chaz says, the science strongly confirms the existence of anthropogenic global warming, but we're still quibbling over the exact relationship. The key word in the last sentence, however, is quibble.

Climate science differs from laboratory science in that we make statistical inferences from non-experimental data. That means that we have statistical margins of error. Those who wish to do nothing sieze on that fact to say "we don't know, so we shouldn't act." That's a non-sequitur. We know, just not how much. The funny thing about a margin of error is that we can not only overestimate the effect of anthropogenic carbon emissions, we can underestimate it, too.

I think DMT is correct that we don't do as much as the statistical and scientific evidence suggests, because we don't want to pay the cost in jobs, lifestyle changes, etc. Because, by and large, we don't pay directly for carbon emissions, we don't feel the effect of those emissions directly. That doesn't change the fact that humanity -- and the only world in which we live -- feels those effects completely.

John
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 16, 2016 - 03:46pm PT
I just want to say in response to DMT. I make less than 40k a year,I live completely off the grid (solar),burn less than 2% of my total fuel consumption in fossil fuels and am not hooked to anything but a cell phone service.
If I can do it ,a hell of a lot could do it as well.

I do not live in a cave.

I have every modern convienence ,I eat good as well.

It is education and commitment that drives one,not to mention fiscal decisions.
Not just one's wallet.

Yes I am poor salesman......lol

And ,my fuel is delivered.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Nov 16, 2016 - 03:58pm PT
I can tell you why more Republicans don't worry about it -- it's because they're convinced it isn't real. I am completely flummoxed when I talk to smart Republicans (some of whom are by actual brothers) who seem to think that they know better than 95% of climate scientists! It's like they have temporarily lost their minds.

It does NOBODY any good to deny truth. The question of what we should and can do about it is a different matter altogether. What we should do about it is a question worthy of discourse between the right and left. Whether it is true or not is not open for discussion among non-experts.

Most of these same deniers have never bothered to read anything significant on the subject from a scientific standpoint.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 16, 2016 - 04:20pm PT
http://www.treehugger.com/renewable-energy/carbon-dioxide-may-soon-be-used-make-fuel.htmlhttp://www.treehugger.com/renewable-energy/carbon-dioxide-may-soon-be-used-make-fuel.htmlI am a Carpenter,you know one of the first people out of work in a recession. I work pt in a bike shop ,groom at a local hill and sell NY's finest.
Yes, I rely on wood and building materials being delivered,made,extracted and then used at the site. I use quite a bit of reclaimed now and sustainable brands.
I would like to see that streamlined as well. It can.
I guess my point is ,if say 20% of our society did more ,a lot would change .

It is coming along,there are guys at RIT finding out that Co2 could become a transportation fuel. That would be huge.
If I made more,everything I own would be electric and rechargeable.

No one has to do anything,they may just want to,for future generations.
Al Barkamps

Social climber
Red Stick
Nov 16, 2016 - 08:58pm PT
Because it is no big deal and there isn't anything we can do about it anyway.

As drumpf would say.....WRONG!

....but I can understand how basic scientific principles go right by the mathematically and scientifically illiterate.

After all, most people still believe that when Wile E. Coyote runs off a cliff that his trajectory is flat til he slows down, stops, then falls. Right Jody?
Kalimon

Social climber
Ridgway, CO
Nov 16, 2016 - 09:06pm PT
Climate change is inevitable, with or without human influence . . . we are simply a catalyst for potentially catastrophic acceleration of natural cycles.

Deniers be liars.
patrick compton

Trad climber
van
Nov 16, 2016 - 09:41pm PT
people make their own reality for themselves these days

climate change is too much doom for most people to handle in their daily lives

so they simply tell each other it isn't true

truthiness

Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Nov 17, 2016 - 05:57am PT
Because it is no big deal and there isn't anything we can do about it anyway.

Sure Jody. Our 6,000 year old flat Earth has more urgent problems to deal with.

Curt
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Nov 17, 2016 - 07:02am PT
The climate is the numero uno reason I voted for Trump.
History will record his presidency as the moment that the temperatures started to decline and the rising seas began to recede. All this as the arrogant criminal cabal behind this greatest of all scams were separated from their hog troughs and we'll deservedly joined the unemployment lines.
Al Barkamps

Social climber
Red Stick
Nov 17, 2016 - 08:09am PT
I thought assuring your progeny generations of embarrassment was the reason you voted for Chump.
sandstone conglomerate

climber
sharon conglomerate central
Nov 17, 2016 - 02:42pm PT
yeah, because 150 years or so of burning fossil fuels 24/7 in the dirtiest ways imaginable couldn't possibly have an effect on the climate. It's just too radical and liberal to even conceive of.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Nov 17, 2016 - 06:00pm PT
I made posts and calculations before that showed the world was burning up 21,000 ships the size of the Exxon Valdez full of oil, a year, or 60 ships per day. This amount has actually increased. The Exxon V held 1.5 million barrels and was 1,000 feet long.

That's just oil adding CO2. THE USA uses about 25% of worlds supplies so the USA burns up about 15 Exxon Valdez ships of oil every day. That's quite a flow into the atmosphere and ocean.

That is just oil. Then there is coal and natural gas, and all of the methane leaks from oil wells and cows.

And, We have burned enough CO2 to have measurably decreased the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere.

http://www.i-sis.org.uk/O2DroppingFasterThanCO2Rising.php

http://scrippso2.ucsd.edu/

What amazes me the most I think is the way they are able to keep all of the filling stations full around the clock.
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Nov 17, 2016 - 06:19pm PT
Learn

[Click to View YouTube Video]
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 17, 2016 - 07:02pm PT
pud,
I really hope you are not uninformed enough to think anything in that video is accurate.
Do you think all these respected organizations are making up thousands of research fabrications?

http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/

AMERICAN SCIENTIFIC SOCIETIES

Statement on climate change from 18 scientific associations

"Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver." (2009)

American Association for the Advancement of Science

"The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society." (2006)

American Chemical Society

"Comprehensive scientific assessments of our current and potential future climates clearly indicate that climate change is real, largely attributable to emissions from human activities, and potentially a very serious problem." (2004)

American Geophysical Union

"Human‐induced climate change requires urgent action. Humanity is the major influence on the global climate change observed over the past 50 years. Rapid societal responses can significantly lessen negative outcomes." (Adopted 2003, revised and reaffirmed 2007, 2012, 2013)

American Medical Association

"Our AMA ... supports the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s fourth assessment report and concurs with the scientific consensus that the Earth is undergoing adverse global climate change and that anthropogenic contributions are significant." (2013)

American Meteorological Society

"It is clear from extensive scientific evidence that the dominant cause of the rapid change in climate of the past half century is human-induced increases in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbons, methane, and nitrous oxide." (2012)


American Physical Society

"The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now." (2007)


The Geological Society of America

"The Geological Society of America (GSA) concurs with assessments by the National Academies of Science (2005), the National Research Council (2006), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) that global climate has warmed and that human activities (mainly greenhouse‐gas emissions) account for most of the warming since the middle 1900s." (2006; revised 2010)


SCIENCE ACADEMIES

International academies: Joint statement

"Climate change is real. There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world’s climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring. The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes to many physical and biological systems. It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities (IPCC 2001)." (2005, 11 international science academies)

U.S. National Academy of Sciences

"The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify taking steps to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere." (2005)


U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES

U.S. Global Change Research Program

"The global warming of the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced increases in heat-trapping gases. Human 'fingerprints' also have been identified in many other aspects of the climate system, including changes in ocean heat content, precipitation, atmospheric moisture, and Arctic sea ice." (2009, 13 U.S. government departments and agencies)

US DOD

INTERGOVERNMENTAL BODIES

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen.”

“Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems.”


The following page lists the nearly 200 worldwide scientific organizations that hold the position that climate change has been caused by human action.
http://opr.ca.gov/s_listoforganizations.php
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 17, 2016 - 07:18pm PT
Michael Mann is not the only source of graphs of recent large temperature increase.

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/22/study-charts-2000-years-of-continental-climate-changes/?_r=0

http://www.skepticalscience.com/surface-temperature-measurements-advanced.htm

http://www.skepticalscience.com/broken-hockey-stick.htm
(already out of date since it doesn't show the huge temperature increase of the last 9 years)

http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm

http://www.skepticalscience.com/water-vapor-greenhouse-gas.htm

Debunking myths of deniers
http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php
Stewart Johnson

Mountain climber
lake forest
Nov 17, 2016 - 07:26pm PT
Skinny pedal on the right.
kunlun_shan

Mountain climber
SF, CA
Nov 17, 2016 - 08:08pm PT
pud's video is definitely for dummies ;-)
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Nov 17, 2016 - 08:14pm PT
Hey show some respect, that film is what Senator Inhofe uses in his climate hoax seminars. The best part is about 2 minutes in when the climate genius calls rainbow girl an ignorant slut. The Senator bleeps that part out! LOL


What's good about this film is the way the denier/hoaxer industry makes a sham out of the most basic facts. The movie puts out points that are very easy to fact check - hardly anything too technical. It could be a blueprint for how to learn about the subject by dissecting what is incorrect in it. I have no doubt there are many 4th grade classrooms that use it for just that. They censor the ignorant slut part though!

Based on the ppm of 365 mentioned in the movie, the movie was made around 1997-99?;


from https://www.co2.earth/
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 17, 2016 - 09:04pm PT
the video repeats a number incorrect assertions regarding the role of CO2 as a greenhouse gas, but those have been extensively discussed in a former STForum thread which had been "locked," one of only two threads ever to have been...

http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=970221

that thread went to 20,000 posts. There was never an explanation why the locking took place.

In the pud video there are two other errors which date it's creation:

1) the statement that "a judge will rule against the EPA's basis for regulating greenhouse gases" was premature, and the basis was upheld in the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia in June 2012

2) that "galactic cosmic rays will be shown to cause clouds which can explain the warming"... this is a reference to the CLOUD experiment at CERN, the conclusion of that experiment:
"... using a pion beam from the CERN Proton Synchrotron, they found that ionising radiation such as the cosmic radiation that bombards the atmosphere from space has negligible influence on the formation rates of these particular aerosols."

http://press.cern/press-releases/2013/10/cerns-cloud-experiment-shines-new-light-climate-change

this was in October of 2013.




the science explaining the surface temperature of the Earth has been known since 1896, and has long established the role of CO2 concentration as the determining factor.

Increasing the CO2 concentration increases the surface temperature.

In that 1896 paper a very credible estimate of the increase temperature due to coal burning was made, the incorrect part of the estimate was a greatly underestimated rate of coal burning.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Nov 17, 2016 - 09:50pm PT
Further research shows 'Ignorant Slut' probably originating with Saturday Night Live from 1995-2000.
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Nov 17, 2016 - 10:34pm PT
Ed,
can you dispel the claim that 93% of Co2 emissions come from natural sources?

circa 1979
[Click to View YouTube Video]

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Nov 17, 2016 - 10:43pm PT
No Ed. The thread went well past 30k posts if your self erasure and frequently banned individuals deletions are taken into account. It doesn't really matter though, since the consensus science will soon be strangled of its lifeblood funds and go poof into vapors flimsier than the supposed correlation between the minor rise of atmospheric CO2 content and the exceedingly modest rise of recent global temps. I pity the poor young fools that mistook this climate crockery for a science worthy of years of study and pursuit as a career.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 17, 2016 - 10:51pm PT
^Do you understand that you echo the whim that brought about the darkest ages Rick? Do you understand that science brought us to this standard of living? Do you understand that China and other countries will happily continue funding research and supplant our position if we decide the Dark Ages are better for fat old white men?




And I always thought that I was a Luddite


rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Nov 17, 2016 - 11:16pm PT
Some fine day, Cowpoke, in a future more concerned with adaptation to reality rather than the bogeyman of false catastrophism, you'll understand the level of naivete of your once young mind. In the meantime please just try to keep your latest ex squeeze from going bat sh#t crazy on the pages of this ST asylum and endangering her kid(s) in the process.
kunlun_shan

Mountain climber
SF, CA
Nov 17, 2016 - 11:18pm PT
since the consensus science will soon be strangled of its lifeblood funds

Harper did this in Canada, which lasted as long as his regime/term.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 17, 2016 - 11:27pm PT
^yes! That government's destruction of public scientific records is right up there with the destruction of the Middle Eastern antiquities by ISIS/Taliban religious extremists.


FWIW I study oil and oil rock chemistry Rick. I am as stuck in the hydrocarbon economy as anyone. Would you agree that the oil economy is doomed in the next few generations?

This is not about catastrophism Rick. This is about anti-scientism. I know about the limitations of science - it is a false prophet like any other. But to persecute the practice that has undeniably improved the human condition (more than any other idolatry) is to put yourself in the camp of the anti-art, anti-science, anti-freedom religious extremists like the Taliban. Or at least the same semi-sphere. Nice, dude! Let us know when the Iron Maiden is all tuned up again.


Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 17, 2016 - 11:29pm PT
Rick is interesting only as a study in stubborn ignorance, but then again that is the title of this thread.
So tell us Rick, in the 3.5 years you have posted 1600 times about climate, have you learned anything about the subject besides the profoundness of your own denying voice? Is denialism justified when scientists aren't all as nice to you as your 2nd grade teacher? How should it be packaged to make a pleasing breitbart trumpet?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 18, 2016 - 12:05am PT
can you dispel the claim that 93% of Co2 emissions come from natural sources?

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/


it looks like 96% of the CO2 going into the atmosphere is from natural sources, at least from the NASA estimate. (The numbers are gigatons of carbon per year).

importantly, the Carbon cycle also absorbs CO2 out of the atmosphere.

When you add it all up, a net effect of increasing CO2 is due to humans, without the additional human contribution the system would be in equilibrium. Calculated this way, only about 3% of the total CO2 emission into the atmosphere stays there... but that has a large effect on the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.

This imbalance is responsible for the increased concentration of CO2 from 280 ppm during the early 19th century (and before) to the modern level of 400 ppm.

This rise in CO2 concentrations has caused the increase in surface temperature, first by warming the atmosphere, which increases the water vapor content, which, in turn, raises the surface temperature more, positive feedback, the effect of increased CO2 concentrations is amplified by the water vapor increase.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Nov 18, 2016 - 01:07am PT

This is interesting - what 400 parts per million actually looks like.
http://www.carbonvisuals.com/blog/400-ppm
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Nov 18, 2016 - 06:49am PT
Rick is interesting only as a study in stubborn ignorance, but then again that is the title of this thread.
So tell us Rick, in the 3.5 years you have posted 1600 times about climate, have you learned anything about the subject besides the profoundness of your own denying voice? Is denialism justified when scientists aren't all as nice to you as your 2nd grade teacher? How should it be packaged to make a pleasing breitbart trumpet?

Climate science deniers aren't here to learn anything. Trying to convince diehard climate science deniers to change their mind, or to even consider other possibilities, is no different than arguing with them about religion. Their minds are made up, facts have absolutely no place and you're an elitist if you think that your science should carry more weight than their simple opinions.

Curt
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Nov 18, 2016 - 06:55am PT
You're a smart guy Curt. What do you think needs to be done?

( besides arguing over the cause, which has been well established )
divad

Trad climber
wmass
Nov 18, 2016 - 07:44am PT
It isn't being caused by humans therfore humans can't affect it


There are 7.4 billion humans on the planet using fire and burning fossil fuels. What possible effect could that have?
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Nov 18, 2016 - 07:52am PT
You know better than claiming 93% of CO2 emissions are man made Ed. Perhaps a high percentage of the recent rise in atmospheric content, but a tiny percentage of the whole of emissions. Get more precise, my gosh your a scientist.
As far as the Cloud experiment not establishing causation between increased cloudiness and increased GCR, Jasper Kirkby (the head of the experiment) begs to differ. Even the opponents of causation admitted a marked increase in cloud nuclei.

It is well established that the alphabet soup of pro hysteria government agencies pushing the myth of unprecedented recent temp rise accomplished this propaganda tool via through the magic of cooling the past climatic data and cherry picking the current data points such as UHI, relying on ship intakes rather than buoys if the temp difference is beneficial to the cause, and finally the grandaddy of all trickery-infilling- most famously Cowan and Way.

One only has to take into account the modern increase in OLR as compared to the exceedingly modest GAT to realize there are moderating negative feedbacks preventing a runaway greenhouse scenario.

Give it up freaks, embrace reality and stumble your way into this new age.
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Nov 18, 2016 - 08:36am PT
You know better than claiming 93% of CO2 emissions are man made Ed.

Ed actually said:

1) it looks like 96% of the CO2 going into the atmosphere is from natural sources.

and

2) When you add it all up, a net effect of increasing CO2 is due to humans, without the additional human contribution the system would be in equilibrium.

Is that really that hard to understand?

Curt
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 18, 2016 - 08:48am PT
The CLOUD experiment has made many very interesting findings, but the connection to the galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) is not one of them, what they found regarding that topic was the effect is negligible.

Given Kirkby's original opinion that CLOUD would prove the connection between cloud cover and GCRs, the findings of the experiment have done just the opposite. While there is more to learn, it is doubtful that this is a major effect. The contribution to cloud formation physics is important, and especially in terms of aerosols and their role in drop nucleation.

The words I quoted above come from the CERN press release, which I linked. You can also look for news items in the scientific press:
e.g.
http://www.nature.com/news/cloud-seeding-surprise-could-improve-climate-predictions-1.19971


If you care to look around, you can find speculations from 2011 made by Kirkby that by now we'd be two years into a "Little Ice Age" induced by a Maunder Minimum... with plunging temperatures and all that... seems not to have happened.

Jasper should stick to the experimental findings of his experiment, which are providing good information for modeling cloud formation needed in the climate models.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Nov 18, 2016 - 09:20am PT
BraveCowboy said: Do you understand that China and other countries will happily continue funding research and supplant our position

So when are China and India actually going to actively implement measures to combat global
warming? They merrily sign all manner of accords but then they more merrily continue
polluting like there's no tomorrow. Is there a catalytic converter in one car in China? Yes,
on imported ones. And the gasoline they produce there is refined only one step past diesel.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 18, 2016 - 09:49am PT
Reilly, I was responding to Rick's gleeful talk about defunding scientific research in the USA. Antiscientism is a serious problem: I myself have serious concerns about subjectivity in research. But to cease public funding of scientific research is absolutely ridiculous.

I agree that China and India are totally beating us in the race to the bottom re consumption, pollution, etc.
skcreidc

Social climber
SD, CA
Nov 18, 2016 - 10:47am PT
Malemute, good try to put it into terms anyone can understand.


How about this. Think of it like compound interest, where the yearly interest gained is generally a small amount of your total investment value. But over those 20 or 30 years, boy does it add up.

Edit; to clarify this gross analogy, consider the total CO2 emitted each year like the total capitol investment at years end. The amount gained in interest each year would be like the amount of anthropogenic CO2 added to the CO2 cycle each year.
Fossil climber

Trad climber
Atlin, B. C.
Nov 18, 2016 - 11:27am PT
Only a very few on this forum are qualified to make a reasonably informed judgement on the causes of global warming and the effects of anthropogenic CO2. You see a few competent scientists here, but a helluva lot of miscellaneous anecdotal material from either side which, like any such “evidence”, proves nothing and is the weapon of the emotional, who become more strident as they defend a position they can’t prove.

And some who can claim to be scientists may not have any training or expertise in this particular field, so a claim to be a scientist does not necessarily carry a great deal of weight.

There are indeed some in the scientific community who cast doubt on the causes of climate change, but the conclusions of 98% - plus or minus - of worldwide climate scientists must not be lightly dismissed.

I feel that a more accurate means of understanding the conflict is to “Follow the Money”. Who is likely to benefit from a particular position? And here we find that - in general, and not unanimously - Republicans strongly tend to be deniers, in line with the money-oriented attitude and policies of the party. And Democrats - the party of social equality - tend to recognize climate change as at least partially anthropogenic; that part, added to any normal cycle, pushing us inexorably toward increasingly dangerous climatic conditions and social unrest.

This statement will of course be strongly contested with anecdotal material, but in general will be found to be true.

In this, as in so many arguments, “Follow the Money”!
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Nov 18, 2016 - 11:56am PT
Nevertheless, there are many facts that can help dispel myths about climate change. We often hear that volcanoes are causing most of the CO2. Well, it's a fact, that on a year to year basis, humans put out 130 times the amount volcanoes do. It's a fact.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 18, 2016 - 12:22pm PT
Nevertheless, there are many facts that can help dispel myths about climate change.

And then there's the over-the-top rhetoric, which hurts the cause.


Harold Wanless:
We should be planning for a minimum 6.6 foot sea level rise by 2100.
The reality will probably be 10 to 30 feet.


Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 18, 2016 - 01:08pm PT
3-4 feet of sea level rise will already be a catastrophe in many areas, so it's silly to complain that some predictions are even higher than the consensus. There is no one perfect prediction

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/03/30/antarctic-loss-could-double-expected-sea-level-rise-by-2100-scientists-say/?utm_term=.92630b91ca9d

2100 is not a magic year, just a convenient time frame, but Sea level rise doesn't just stop at 2100. All those steep rise plot models go right on rising after 2100, even if GHG emissions decrease and levels in the atmosphere flatten, due to
 long heating rise time of oceans,
 long half life of GHGs in the air,
 long time to melt ice.

http://sciencenordic.com/time-running-out-adapt-dramatic-sea-level-rise

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/03/30/the-alarming-science-behind-projections-of-much-higher-seas-in-this-century/?tid=a_inl&utm_term=.0d98cfb411f1

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/unfccc/cop19/3_gregory13sbsta.pdf

http://sealevel.nasa.gov/understanding-sea-level/projections/empirical-projections



McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Nov 18, 2016 - 01:11pm PT
And then there's the over-the-top rhetoric, which hurts the cause.

Are you worried about the cause EdwardT? Wanless admits he is a bit of an outlier with his 10 to 30 foot prediction. He says that in a Vanity Fair article if you are interested.

Also, I was wondering if you accept the less radical 6 foot projections.
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Nov 18, 2016 - 02:42pm PT
[Click to View YouTube Video]
Fat Dad

Trad climber
Los Angeles, CA
Nov 18, 2016 - 03:09pm PT
It is well established that the alphabet soup of pro hysteria government agencies pushing the myth of unprecedented recent temp rise accomplished this propaganda tool via through the magic of cooling the past climatic data and cherry picking the current data points such as UHI, relying on ship intakes rather than buoys if the temp difference is beneficial to the cause, and finally the grandaddy of all trickery-infilling- most famously Cowan and Way.
Quite a thoughtful reply. I feel better already.

Did Jody give up trying to persuade us that the earth in flat?

To answer the OP's question, people are lazy, in denial or believe there's nothing they can do as individuals when all the world's governments seem content to stand by and hope for the best. When the sh#t hits the fan, I'm sure Rick and Jody will blame Obama.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Nov 18, 2016 - 03:19pm PT

I'll tell you gents; I ain't too concerned with the climate since the 52f temps are perfect here and the cragging incredible.
Fat Dad

Trad climber
Los Angeles, CA
Nov 18, 2016 - 03:49pm PT
^^^
I like this response much better. Thanks Rick.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Nov 18, 2016 - 04:53pm PT
So when are China and India actually going to actively implement measures to combat global
warming? They merrily sign all manner of accords but then they more merrily continue
polluting like there's no tomorrow. Is there a catalytic converter in one car in China? Yes,
on imported ones. And the gasoline they produce there is refined only one step past diesel.

China actually is doing a lot. Given the next POTUS, I actually think China is going to be more of leader than the US.

China's top echelon actually has a lot of engineers in it. (Engineering was seen as a key part of the "Great way Forward".) They are facing huge public pressure from bad air quality. No, it isn't a democracy but the elites are scared of public demonstrations getting out of hand. Plus, the elites are breathing/living in foul air in Beijing also. They are leading the world with solar plant installations and have big plans for nuclear power (will have to see how that one plays out). They are building a lot of coal plants but at the same time they are retiring older, dirtier, less efficient ones.

They have huge concerns over water scarcity and realize that climate change is going to make that much worse for them. Sea level rise is also a really big deal for some of their coastal, large population areas.

Which isn't to say that China has a Scandinavian attitude and infrastructure, they don't. For starters, they are far poorer per capital. And the rapid increase in car ownership is discouraging. But I am actually pretty hopeful about China as regards climate change.

India, not so much.

Even if legislation is passed (dubious), the central government is too weak to enforce anything.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Nov 18, 2016 - 05:00pm PT
Anybody here in the insurance industry? Seems to me that the best of them should be like good Las Vegas odds-makers when it comes to climate change. Beautiful crag, by the way!
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 19, 2016 - 09:07am PT
Are you worried about the cause EdwardT?

Nah. The cause will live on. Maybe it'll gain some real traction, and the global community will make an effective plan to lower atmospheric CO2. More likely, it will muddle along, making good theater.

Also, I was wondering if you accept the less radical 6 foot projections.

Six feet is only less radical in comparison. It's still on the extreme end of most projections. I accept the IPCC and NCA estimates of 1 to 4 feet. Four feet is credible and still very problematic.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Nov 19, 2016 - 01:46pm PT
OK - I see where you are coming from now. Thanks :>)

I have always wondered though, if the IPCC was too conservative in their approach. Putting things out 100 years allows people to think it's not important now, which fits right in to the OPs point. At the time this really really does start affecting more and more people, it really will be too late to do anything about.

Many think it's all ready too late, of course, because the future warming is already locked in. The warming will be relatively gradual until the ice is gone that cools the oceans. Much of this ice of course is ancient 'fossil' ice that is like the 'fossil' fuels that are melting it.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Nov 19, 2016 - 02:20pm PT
Just wondering...who here of the "concerned" camp, eat meat?
I do...pretty much every other day!

Do you at least think about eating less meat while you are eating meat? You sound like Dingus that asks everyone what they drive- LOL

Let me say this; no matter what it is you are doing to f*#k the planet up, climate science is still climate science. If it were not for the science, we would not know anything about this stuff. It is a beginning.

McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Nov 19, 2016 - 02:41pm PT
You did notice that I addressed you as New World Odor. It is not the first time. ;>)

McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Nov 19, 2016 - 02:46pm PT
You mean about Trump? I'm thinking the Trump experiment is not going to turn out well.


McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Nov 19, 2016 - 03:52pm PT
I don't actually worship Gore, mentioning his name was more of a trolling device. A gallon of gas still makes 22 lbs of CO2. Like I said before, regardless of what people do, whether it's Gore or whoever, climate science is still climate science. Isn't the article mostly saying trading in carbon credits can be folly? It has nothing to do with what is happening with the climate. Al Gore buys green energy for his home/homes.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Nov 19, 2016 - 05:28pm PT
Well no, but the libertarian idea that seven billion people armed with modern technology can and should be able to do what they want is silly.
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Nov 19, 2016 - 05:51pm PT
oh boy...
we are in the Holocene interglacial.
it started 12,000 years ago.

70,000 years ago yosemite valley was full of ice. It is warmer now.

There is less ice in the northern hemisphere.
For the last three years in a row, the highest amount of ice ever measured is in the southern hemisphere. Last spring 70,000 penguins died because after wintering inland, they came to the bay to feed, but the bay they normally swim and eat in was iced over. they died.

there is more CO2 put into the air by the beef, cattle and milk industries than all petroleum combusted, so better go fear the cow pie! or get your conspiracy theory going against the Jersey cows!

or maybe some are just sick of the alarmists getting grants... or selling books.
Elrich made millions in the 70's we were all going to be dead by overpopulation,
statistical inevitability, stupid to deny... hmmmm sound familiar?

and there are a host of others, bird flu, heterosexual aids, blah, blah, blah.

The north american record high temp was set in 1913.

Richard Linzen alone? no.

here is Patrick Moore former head of GREENPEACE CANADA on the subject:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RkdbSxyXftc
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Nov 19, 2016 - 06:13pm PT
Al Gore is apparently not concerned after pocketing 250 million....
everywhere he goes, he goes in a private jet, putting more CO2 into the atmosphere in a day than you will in 4 years.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Nov 19, 2016 - 06:19pm PT
about Patrick Moore from Ed's post:

http://www.greenpeace.org/usa/news/greenpeace-statement-on-patric/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2014/06/27/who-founded-greenpeace-not-patrick-moore/

OH no, LOL, Patrick Moore is the guy that claimed you could drink Glyophosate:

http://www.desmogblog.com/patrick-moore
10b4me

Mountain climber
Retired
Nov 19, 2016 - 06:25pm PT
http://www.commondreams.org/news/2016/11/18/climate-emergency-north-pole-sees-record-temps-melting-ice-despite-arctic-winter
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 19, 2016 - 06:37pm PT
EdBannister wrote: Richard Linzen alone?

perhaps you could provide some reference to Linzen's scientific work on which you feel he is not alone.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Shetville , North of Los Angeles
Nov 19, 2016 - 06:54pm PT
10B4me...thanks for the read...scary sh#t..
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Nov 19, 2016 - 09:15pm PT
Scientists arguing that global warming is primarily caused by natural processes


Khabibullo Abdusamatov, astrophysicist at Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences[75][76]
Sallie Baliunas, retired astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics[77][78][79]
Timothy Ball, historical climatologist, and retired professor of geography at the University of Winnipeg[80][81][82]
Ian Clark, hydrogeologist, professor, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa[83][84]
Chris de Freitas, associate professor, School of Geography, Geology and Environmental Science, University of Auckland[85][86]
David Douglass, solid-state physicist, professor, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester[87][88]
Don Easterbrook, emeritus professor of geology, Western Washington University[89][90]
William Happer, physicist specializing in optics and spectroscopy; emeritus professor, Princeton University[91][92]
Ole Humlum, professor of geology at the University of Oslo[93][94]
Wibjörn Karlén, professor emeritus of geography and geology at the University of Stockholm.[95][96]
William Kininmonth, meteorologist, former Australian delegate to World Meteorological Organization Commission for Climatology[97][98]
David Legates, associate professor of geography and director of the Center for Climatic Research, University of Delaware[99][100]
Anthony Lupo, professor of atmospheric science at the University of Missouri[101][102]
Tad Murty, oceanographer; adjunct professor, Departments of Civil Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa[103][104]
Tim Patterson, paleoclimatologist and professor of geology at Carleton University in Canada.[105][106]
Ian Plimer, professor emeritus of mining geology, the University of Adelaide.[107][108]
Arthur B. Robinson, American politician, biochemist and former faculty member at the University of California, San Diego[109][110]
Murry Salby, atmospheric scientist, former professor at Macquarie University and University of Colorado[111][112]
Nicola Scafetta, research scientist in the physics department at Duke University[113][114][115]
Tom Segalstad, geologist; associate professor at University of Oslo[116][117]
Nir Shaviv, professor of physics focusing on astrophysics and climate science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem[118][119]
Fred Singer, professor emeritus of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia[120][121][122][123]
Willie Soon, astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics[124][125]
Roy Spencer, meteorologist; principal research scientist, University of Alabama in Huntsville[126][127]
Henrik Svensmark, physicist, Danish National Space Center[128][129]
George H. Taylor, retired director of the Oregon Climate Service at Oregon State University[130][131]
Jan Veizer, environmental geochemist, professor emeritus from University of Ottawa[132][133]
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Nov 19, 2016 - 09:17pm PT
Scientists questioning the accuracy of IPCC climate projections
These scientists have said that it is not possible to project global climate accurately enough to justify the ranges projected for temperature and sea-level rise over the next century. They may not conclude specifically that the current IPCC projections are either too high or too low, but that the projections are likely to be inaccurate due to inadequacies of current global climate modeling.

David Bellamy, botanist.[19][20][21][22]
Lennart Bengtsson, meteorologist, Reading University.[23][24]
Piers Corbyn, owner of the business WeatherAction which makes weather forecasts.[25][26]
Judith Curry, Professor and former chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology.[27][28][29][30]
Freeman Dyson, professor emeritus of the School of Natural Sciences, Institute for Advanced Study; Fellow of the Royal Society.[31][32]
Ivar Giaever, Norwegian–American physicist and Nobel laureate in physics (1973).[33]
Steven E. Koonin, theoretical physicist and director of the Center for Urban Science and Progress at New York University.[34][35]
Richard Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan emeritus professor of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and member of the National Academy of Sciences.[36][37][38][39]
Craig Loehle, ecologist and chief scientist at the National Council for Air and Stream Improvement.[40][41][42][43][44][45][46]
Ross McKitrick, Professor of Economics and CBE Chair in Sustainable Commerce, University of Guelph.[47][48]
Patrick Moore, former president of Greenpeace Canada.[49][50][51]
Nils-Axel Mörner, retired head of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics Department at Stockholm University, former chairman of the INQUA Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution (1999–2003).[52][53]
Garth Paltridge, retired chief research scientist, CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research and retired director of the Institute of the Antarctic Cooperative Research Centre, visiting fellow Australian National University.[54][55]
Roger A. Pielke, Jr., professor of environmental studies at the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research at the University of Colorado at Boulder.[56][57]
Tom Quirk, corporate director of biotech companies and former board member of the Institute of Public Affairs, an Australian conservative think-tank.[58]
Denis Rancourt, former professor of physics at University of Ottawa, research scientist in condensed matter physics, and in environmental and soil science.[59][60][61][62]
Harrison Schmitt, geologist, Apollo 17 Astronaut, former U.S. Senator.[63]
Peter Stilbs, professor of physical chemistry at Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm.[64][65]
Philip Stott, professor emeritus of biogeography at the University of London.[66][67]
Hendrik Tennekes, retired director of research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute.[68][69]
Anastasios Tsonis, distinguished professor at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.[70][71]
Fritz Vahrenholt, German politician and energy executive with a doctorate in chemistry.[72][73]
Fat Dad

Trad climber
Los Angeles, CA
Nov 19, 2016 - 09:18pm PT
Man, don't you get it? Al Gore has $$$, so melting sea ice has no relation to a warming climate. Those liberal environmental extremists' message has become so pervasive, even the ice believes it now. All is fine. Carry on, or the government will control your life!
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Nov 19, 2016 - 09:18pm PT
or you can just remember none of them are from Stanford, they just got a grant for 225 million... do you think they will oppose what they are in the tank for 225 million for?
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Nov 19, 2016 - 09:20pm PT
or, we are in the holocene interglacial, it started getting warmer 11,500 years ago.....
did Henry Ford do that??
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Nov 19, 2016 - 09:23pm PT
semite Valley was full of ice 70,000 years ago... it got warmer, four recessional moraines witness four periods of stability followed by a yet warmer period... also not caused by Ford or Eli Whitney.
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Nov 19, 2016 - 09:40pm PT
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Nov 19, 2016 - 09:41pm PT
Dynamic equilibrium for the last 450,000 years which we are now well within the normal limits of.

Are you really going to maintain that Exxon caused these?
Fat Dad

Trad climber
Los Angeles, CA
Nov 19, 2016 - 09:43pm PT
Ed, thanks for the substantive contributions. With the first list, it is hard to compare its merit without a list of scientists who have, after evaluating the data, reach a contrary conclusions. With the second list, two points. First not everyone on the list I would characterize (based on their titles) as necessarily qualified to render an opinion on the subject matter. Second, as you point out, they are not denying climate change but, rather, question the ability to quantify the data.
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Nov 19, 2016 - 09:57pm PT
Fat,
no honest person pretends to know what quantity of influence man has on climate change.. there is no means of measuring it. there is no control! there can be no scientific experiment.

but to maintain that the earth as we know it is threatened, when we are well within the pattern of the past, is grant searching alarmism.

When i was in high school we were all going to die from overpopulation.. a statistical inevitability.
Erlich made a lot of money.

we were all going to die from heterosexual aids, and the Bird Flu also others..
research grant impending doom. all of them.

there are more lists, wikipedia has a page i copied 2 of many lists from.

and there is this, inconvenient truth...

140,000 penguins died last spring in Antarctica because not just an iceberg, anentire bay remained frozen that normally thaws and penguins feed.. for the last three years in a row, southern polar ice has been at the highest level ever measured.

facts.

and when facts don't match the science, the facts are not wrong, the "science" is..


EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Nov 19, 2016 - 10:05pm PT
We are in the Holocene 11,500 years worth... and it has been getting warmer the whole time, somehow this is news??

the only news might be it could be stabilizing now.. after all the north american high temperature record was set in 1913. : ) true, despite all efforts to amend that inconvenient truth.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Nov 19, 2016 - 10:06pm PT
Ed B, no list of dissenting scientists ( some of which number greater than 30,000), no amount of peer reviewed papers, and no quantity of unimpeachable evidence will ever sway these freaks from party line adherence to the gospel of their religion.You might as well be arguing with robots.
Fat Dad

Trad climber
Los Angeles, CA
Nov 19, 2016 - 10:25pm PT
Rick, you're describing yourself (and BS about 30,00 dissenting scientists on this issue).

Ed, I understand your point but I think you're pointing to false analogies. You're talking temperature but neglect to mention carbon.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 19, 2016 - 10:31pm PT
actually, I asked for references to scientific work, not testimony.

how much do you think Erlich made on his book?


do you know any of the scientists on that list?
have you ever read any of their papers?
went to any of their seminars,
talked to them in any way?

you don't know who they are, and you don't know how the list was made, or by whom.

you actually can talk to the scientists that post to STForum who can explain with some patience what is in the papers, yet you find them less convincing than the suggestion of someone you don't know who put up a list of 25 scientists who you've never read any technical work from...

...perhaps I should not find this strange, but I do...

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 19, 2016 - 10:48pm PT
nwo2, I don't see how that has anything to do with the science of climate.

How we choose to respond to the results of that science is something quite different.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Nov 19, 2016 - 11:38pm PT
^^^^^^
You love a tender T-bone steak as much as any of us, don't you?

LOL. You should go to work for Trump Steaks. Stop it. You are making me drool.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 20, 2016 - 12:53am PT
My query has nothing to do with the "science of climate".

I don't know what the policy outcome will be, but I do know the science will not change whatever that outcome is.
Brandon-

climber
The Granite State.
Nov 20, 2016 - 03:42am PT
No meat would be a good start.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 20, 2016 - 04:29am PT
Thanks Ed.

Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Nov 20, 2016 - 07:18am PT
"No meat would be a good start."

How about not.

How about all the vegans who tell the rest of us not to eat meat just jump in volcanoes. The net result would probably be about equal.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Nov 20, 2016 - 08:07am PT
Scientists questioning the accuracy of IPCC climate projections

EdBannister, thanks for listing the couple of dozen scientists you found that "question the accuracy of IPCC climate projections."

Would you now like to see a list of the thousands of scientists who have proofs on what your handful of scientists question?

Not that it's wrong to question, in fact that's what science is all about--questioning. But, when a small handful is so powerfully outnumbered, who do you believe?
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Nov 20, 2016 - 08:58am PT
K-man,

just because the majority believes it, doesn't make it true.

Care for a few examples?

I don't know what the policy outcome will be, but I do know the science will not change whatever that outcome is.

The earth evolves. It changes. Science follows.
skcreidc

Social climber
SD, CA
Nov 20, 2016 - 09:02am PT
Climate Change: Why aren't more people concerned about it?

Because people are mostly preoccupied with sex.



Dave, why don't you grow up and learn that others can have opinions different from yours. Better yet, throw yourself into a volcano. Too many people on this planet anyway. Because as a solution, the vegan option would have a solid positive impact. And I don't think that methane and the other hydrocarbons are addressed by a carbon tax scenario (although I could be wrong on that), despite the fact that CH4 has 21 times the greenhouse gas effect of CO2.
rbord

Boulder climber
atlanta
Nov 20, 2016 - 09:07am PT
no honest person pretends to know what quantity of influence man has on climate change

No, the honest persons pretend to know that no honest person knows what quantity of influence man has on climate change.

My evolved survival/confirmation bias processes know better than your science.

Hope that's on topic for this thread :-)
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 20, 2016 - 10:34am PT
EdBannister and pud and others make the argument that the Earth's climate has changed, historically, and that the current change can be attributed to natural causes.

There is an interesting number of threads to pull regarding this point, I don't think it is too difficult to follow the reasoning.

In fact, it was the departure of the climate's behavior from "natural" and the search for natural causes which ended up concluding that the climate was responding to human activity. The very same logic, that climate change is natural, lead climate researchers to study the early climate.

It is a fact that those very same plots of the history of climate came out of this research effort, an improving understanding of the paleoclimate, using a number of interesting observations that serve as "proxies" for the actual quantities to be measured, for instance, the surface temperature, the CO2 concentrations, and other quantities known to mediate the climate.

These proxies built a picture of the "recent" climate, during this interglacial, that provides a detailed set of observations against which to compare the observed climate of the 20th century.

Squaring this historic data with the current data is not possible given our understanding of how the Earth's surface temperature is established, the explanation for which was given by Arrhenius in 1896, which addressed the difference in the Earth's temperature in glacial and interglacial periods. The quantitative explanation involving the role of CO2 and the "greenhouse" mechanism is well established and the methods used applied to planetary atmospheres as a first approximation to their behavior.

In that paper the prediction of a warming climate due to the emission of CO2 from human activity was made, and the rate of warming calculated based on the climate sensitivity to CO2, and the rate of coal burning. The sensitivity calculated was not that far off, the rate of CO2 intensive energy production was grossly underestimated.

The relatively simple model Arrhenius used was due to the lack of global data of the climate, and the necessary simplification of the calculations that could be performed. Both the data and the computational ability increased dramatically.

The models, which contain our best understanding of all the factors involved in climate, can be used both the predict future climate, and to explain the recent past climate. As data on the climate became more accurate, the models became more constrained.

In the end, the models could not explain the 20th century climate without accounting for the human contribution of CO2 in the atmosphere. The natural variability of climate does not account for this recent behavior.

All along this research path the basic assumptions of the models, of the data, of the climate reconstructions have been challenged, the best challenges by the scientists conducting the research themselves, but also from other scientists, and other people outside the scientific "establishment." While there are open questions, the degree to which these open questions can effect the current understanding are getting smaller and smaller.

For instance, understanding clouds has long been a difficult issue and a major uncertainty in the models. It was a natural place to study, and many criticisms of the importance of CO2 pointed to the important role that clouds could play in relatively short term climate. The proposal that galactic cosmic rays might be changing the solar system "environment" and be a part of the non-terresital climate forcing was at least part of the basis of the CLOUD experiment at CERN.

Conducting this research several interesting observations were made. First and foremost, the primary mechanism for the cosmic-ray--cloud-formation mechanism was shown to be so small that it is ruled out as an explanation for the 20th century climate "anomaly." It did discover the importance of different types of aerosols in cloud formation, and that the sulphur aerosols, once thought to be a primary agent, is only a part of the story. This is important in understanding the paleoclimate record.

Finally, studies of the correlations of the cosmic ray flux with climate see modulations which help to explain the remaining variability of climate, not nearly large enough to explain the 20th century, but important in explaining some of the "bumps and wiggles" that occur when comparing the models to the data. Reducing the unaccounted variability increase the predictive power of the models.

I mention this last case as an example of the "self examination" that occurs in doing science and following up on the "loose ends" of the model. There is a huge incentive within the science community to pursue these loose ends as they are the places where important discoveries are made, and the making of important discoveries is rewarded in science.

Among the listed scientists there are a fraction who have provided scientific criticism, all of which had been addressed through observation, measurement and modeling. The understanding of clouds being one such criticism. To a varying degree, these criticisms existed previous to the voice those particular listed scientists gave them, and those criticism were addressed in the research efforts of climate science.

Being able to read both the criticisms, and the responses, in the scientific literature is an important part of understanding the arguments and there importance to the scientific discussion. Unfortunately not everyone can read that literature, some of it is located behind a "paywall" and most of it written for a professional audience possessing the tools to understand it.

For the most part, the interested public listens to interpretations of the work and depends on the interpreters for their understanding. Being able to ask questions about the interpretations is important, being able to understand the scientific work would be so much better.


Bottom line, it is the departure of the 20th century climate from what is "natural" that was the interesting question that had been ultimately answered by considering the human activity which has increased the atmospheric CO2 concentration. When this activity is taken into account, we can explain the 20th century climate.
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Nov 20, 2016 - 12:36pm PT
Ed H. thanks for your thoughtful reply, of course i respect your opinion.. we differ, but i still respect your reasoned opinion.

I look at nature as cyclical and variable, even the polarity of the planet has regularly reversed and i view where we are as within the normal range and rate of change.

as for Malemute,
if you consider money to be the motivation, then please look at examples like Stanford receiving 225,000,000 dollars.

re: your implication as to my stupidity, particularly in high school science:
Limiting my response to High School only.
In 11th grade all 1,342 students in my class took the same standardized Biology test, you think maybe i am saying top 5 or 10 %? no, i had the highest score by a 3% margin.
In 12th grade i passed the AP exam for biology, accomplished by only three that year in a geographic area covering 28 High schools from LaCrescenta to Monrovia, CA
I graduated from Pasadena High School with departmental honors in guess what? Science.
so if we are to label that stupidity, what are we to call your performance?
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Nov 20, 2016 - 01:06pm PT
so you just abandoned your own criteria...

you changed standards after you realized reality was contrary to your opinion...


well at least that is consistent
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Nov 20, 2016 - 01:06pm PT

EVERY GEOLOGIC RECORD shows us within normal and recurring limits
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Nov 20, 2016 - 01:18pm PT
and Ed. you are right on the variables, many of which we do not understand...
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Nov 20, 2016 - 01:20pm PT
mute, who produced your graph...
who are they funded by?

i cited source, you did not.

and since you cited high school science as a criterion for measuring intelligence, was your record better than mine?
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Nov 20, 2016 - 01:22pm PT
The NY Times just had an article today citing how climate change deniers lately have taken to listing every last climate change denier in the universe of climate scientists to promote their cause. EdBannister seems to fit this run-of-the-mill climate change-denier type.
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Nov 20, 2016 - 01:29pm PT
Malamute,
i will stop responding
you insult me personally based on assumption about high school science performance,
when you are shown to be incorrect, you do not apologize, or even acknowledge your error, or rude behavior. instead you change criteria...

that is not consistent, to use the kindest accurate terms possible.

so, i cease talk ing to a person who is not consistent.

for the rest, look at geologic time, not the last 7 minutes on the planet.. the office of 30 day forecast at NOAH, is 60% inaccurate. but they will tell you the models, and assumptions are all valid and tested.. they are funded.
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Nov 20, 2016 - 01:38pm PT
You don't agree with me so you are stupid!


It is useless to have a reasonable debate with folks that think like this.

carry on
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Nov 20, 2016 - 01:39pm PT
you are correct PUD

note i used no such term, or i hope did not show that attitude.

as for steak, i am occasionally in, i know my place as omnivore in the food web.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 20, 2016 - 01:58pm PT
and Ed. you are right on the variables, many of which we do not understand...

this is true, but we know how much those variables affect the predictions, and the answer is not so much... when you account for the additional CO2 in the atmosphere, which is the largest factor causing the climate change...
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Nov 20, 2016 - 02:18pm PT
If for no other reason other than something on the order of 95% of climate scientists believe that humans are significant contributors to climate change, I would believe that humans are significant contributors to climate change. End of story unless I have some extraordinary insight that I know most humans don't have. If you think otherwise, you are of the conspiracy theory ilk, IMO.
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Nov 20, 2016 - 02:31pm PT
"Dave, why don't you grow up and learn that others can have opinions different from yours. Better yet, throw yourself into a volcano. Too many people on this planet anyway. Because as a solution, the vegan option would have a solid positive impact. And I don't think that methane and the other hydrocarbons are addressed by a carbon tax scenario (although I could be wrong on that), despite the fact that CH4 has 21 times the greenhouse gas effect of CO2."

The point is that one group doesn't get to dictate what another group eats / drinks / puts in their bodies.

Banning drugs has worked out fabulously, hasn't it? So, lets ban steak / meat?

That is a stellar idea.


Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 20, 2016 - 02:47pm PT
here it is on the NASA website:

http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

jgill

Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
Nov 20, 2016 - 03:54pm PT
When I took the climatology course at the U of Chicago in 1959 it was considered the easiest class in the meteorology curriculum. Looks like it has become more sophisticated over the years.

eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Nov 21, 2016 - 08:02am PT
Great link, Malemute!
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Nov 21, 2016 - 08:18am PT
just because the majority believes it, doesn't make it true.

Pud, it's not a majority "belief."

With science, there are ways to "prove" things. Certainly, no proof with climate can be 100% accurate, but things can get very close. So, it's not just a casual belief based on an opinion, as you seem to imply.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Nov 21, 2016 - 08:31am PT
NWO2, you keep posting this, as if you know this outcome to be true if we restrict our carbon output.

I'd just like to know how you folks would feel about living a life of.....
No meat consumption. No private car ownership. Calorie ration cards. No private land ownership.
Restrictions on freedom to travel.

OK, let's suppose this is the end result of reducing our carbon footprint to one that allows for a livable planet. Can you enumerate the alternative where we don't limit our carbon footprint? Come on, just do it once.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Nov 21, 2016 - 08:35am PT
EVERY GEOLOGIC RECORD shows us within normal and recurring limits
    EdBannister

Really EdBannister? How is it then that both EdH and Malemute show different records from different verified sources?

That your graph was so quickly debunked doesn't make you look like the smartest kid on the block, as you claim to be.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Nov 21, 2016 - 10:01am PT
Ed H posts the standard alarmist fare, a graph designed to sensationalize the alarmist argument. Widen the graph out a bit into geologic time Ed and your little 400 ppm spike isn't even an ant hill compared to long periods measured in the multiple thousands of ppm's. Some of these geologic co2 highpoint s coincided with extreme ice ages.
Let's look at our nearest planetary neighbors: Venus at 96% CO2, Mars at 96% CO2. Compare this to earth at.04% CO2. What is the unifying theory that works near perfectly to explain their respective climatic conditions? What theory initiated by Maxwell and elaborated by Feynman et al explains planetary climatic conditions infinitely better than the pathetic CO2 control knob pushed by the commie/facsist/eco freaks?
Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Nov 21, 2016 - 10:15am PT
commie/facsist/eco freaks?

you forgot black, educated, gay, liberal, tree-hugging, native american jewish muslim hippies Rick, No free college for you.

JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Nov 21, 2016 - 10:56am PT

I don't know what the policy outcome will be, but I do know the science will not change whatever that outcome is.

To me, this is the critical truth. Chemistry and physics don't change whether we impose draconian restrictions on freedom or ignore human influence on climate. What we do, however, affects our environment, including our climate, because of that chemistry and physics. (Sorry, biologists. I'm treating biological effects as reduced to chemical and physical reactions.)

From my market-oriented perspective, I see no viable argument for ignoring the science. Yes, we lack 100% agreement. We also lack 100% certainty. So what? Failure to take what we know into account because we aren't certain is a little like deciding I don't need to wear my seat belts because I don't know if I'll be in an collision.

Concern for being in a collision doesn't mean I decide to drive only if I'm as heavily armored as an M1 A1 Abrams Tank, but it does mean I take relatively cheap precautions like using my seat belts. We can - and need to - make similarly informed decisions about how our activities affect climate, and what changes are worth making.

John
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 21, 2016 - 12:07pm PT
Malemute - It's comical how you've got such a chubby for those deplorable "deniers".

Do you think you're making any converts with your condescending posts?







c wilmot

climber
Nov 21, 2016 - 12:41pm PT
Why is no one concerned about overpopulation?
Fossil climber

Trad climber
Atlin, B. C.
Nov 21, 2016 - 01:08pm PT
John, above - right on. And so is Wilmot - overpopulation is the driver.

Alternatives. If we do nothing we're going to have some pretty bad consequences anyway just from the inexorable increase in temperatures.

If the vast majority of climate scientists are right - but we do nothing about GHGs etc. - the consequences will be horrendous. Can we afford to take the chance? Your kids and mine are the ones who will pay, big time.

And - we don't gain a lot in this discussion from insults. Insults usually are a last mindless defence when losing, even though they can be fun, to a point. If insults seem to be desirable, how about getting original?

(Just an amusing sort of OT anecdote - I was once at a cocktail party which included George Hartzog who was NPS Director, and Ansel Adams. Both incredible raconteurs. After a few postprandial libations they got into a contest to see who could outdo each other with Shakespearian-style insults and toasts. It went on for half an hour and was so amazing that 40+ years later I think it was one of the greatest verbal jousts I have ever heard. There were no losers.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Nov 21, 2016 - 02:11pm PT
We haven't gained anything from a rational presentation of the science.

I respectfully disagree. Chiloe turned me on to the statistical literature that dealt with my own doubts about climate science, and completely changed my thinking. A string of gratuitous insults would have caused me to ignore everything else he, or probably anyone else with his views, said.

In my experience as an advocate, insults and ridicule cause intelligent fact-finders to conclude that the person making the insults lacks a solid argument. Believe it or not, there are plenty of people still making up their minds on this issue, and what we do about it depends on what they think.

John
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Nov 21, 2016 - 03:03pm PT
You sure seem to have a lot of free time on your hands, DMT. Do you work for a living?
BobSFrankNose

Social climber
Seattle
Nov 21, 2016 - 03:17pm PT
Insults and half-truths have so soiled (and I mean that in a stinky sh#t sort of way) this particular discussion that no critical thinker would take anything Malemut, Chaz, Curt, McHales Navy, Eyeeonkee, Mousedrool, etc., etc, ad nausea serious. Your all just humping each other's leg. Attack, attack, attack, call dummies, fools, stupid, batshit crazy, on and on.

Why? Why not just say some of the initial considerations were wrong, did not come true, and going forward probably won’t come true, and we have some explaining to do with regards of other ‘not happening’ climate changes that were forecast.

Only Ed Hartouni comes off sounding reasonable and educated, and he is a little hesitant to be dogmatic. Of course, he is wasting the taxpayer’s dime being on the supertopo website rather than minding business at Lawrence Livermore Labs.

I am not at all religious, didn’t vote for Trump, don’t work for Evil Koch Brothers or big oil, and I get more skeptical every day. But, I am educated, can read and discern propaganda. Can weigh all of the facts from multiple sources and can – in a scientific manner – reach my own conclusion. But you fools can’t seem to do anything but cut and paste and called others stupid.

O.K., yeah, we have climate change! And, it seems to be warming? And, a percent of that is caused by humans. And, maybe some of it is caused by us filthy idle Americans. So we (the only ones that can really solve the problem) should shut down our economy and go back into the dark ages?

Like Dingus says – you’re not advancing your ideology in a very convincing way. So, many just give it up discussing here with boisterous people so full of themselves.

Look, the data may have been flawed, all the way back, and the data may have had a pressured agenda for an outcome – that is proven over and over.

Those peer reviewed people that made a living at this scare were more interested in continued funding than absolute truths. You claim some deniers are pitching false data – but what about your zealots and your prophets of doom. You don’t think they have an agenda or skin in the game to pitch what is slowing turning out to be your bullsh#t.

For every Koch, you’ve got a Soros. For every reference to the 97%, there are dozens of papers on why that is and was a tilted study.

Who are the climatology religious nuts here? It’s not me. I’m just interested in current perspectives from reputable sides – and most of you nuts have eliminated yourselves from the reputable side.

I was in Denver and heard Chiloe’s presentation a few years back. He got some questions that so flustered him that he could not respond and nearly fainted. Like nobody else in the meeting had done any reading on contrary points of view – like he was preaching to a willing group of snake handlers and everyone would just nod their heads up and down. Hardly convincing of anything.

So stop eating meat, ride a bike, protest in the streets! While the rest of the world ignores all of our little proposals and climate treaties and goes on their merry way.

The only way out of this is a free market approach, and a huge financial enterprising incentive for some smart Americans (not Canadian’s – you can’t seem to get over yourselves pointing figures) to solve the problem – which they will do eventually.

You guys seem more interested in the prospect and joy of frying under a scorching sun – just so you can say to me and others: “See, I told you so”. Now that is stupid!
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Nov 21, 2016 - 03:22pm PT
Can I just say, that I think you are an idiot, BobSFranksNose?
BobSFrankNose

Social climber
Seattle
Nov 21, 2016 - 03:28pm PT
Anything specific Donkey Greg, or just more banter and name calling. I'm almost convinced your right.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Nov 21, 2016 - 03:39pm PT
The only way out of this is a free market approach, and a huge financial enterprising incentive for some smart Americans (not Canadian’s – you can’t seem to get over yourselves pointing figures) to solve the problem – which they will do eventually.

I wish that were true, but in this case, we don't have a proper allocation of property rights, so the market won't provide an efficient solution. If I can emit as much carbon as I want without paying a price (either in the form of making a payment to emit, or foregoing a payment to refrain from emitting), the market will send the wrong price signal for the entrepreneurial problem-solvers to sell their products.

If we can come up with a system of property rights, such that the polluter pays the marginal cost of the pollution, then, but only then, is the market the only efficient way out. That's what the debate is really about, but too many on both sides of the argument try to short cut the analysis either by denying that humanity has more than a negligible effect on earth's climate, or asserting that we must "do everything" to minimize our carbon footprint.

Trade-offs get messy to argue because different people value different things, but we will ultimately select some point in the trade-off, whether we try to analyze it carefully or just default into our terms of trade.

John
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 21, 2016 - 03:46pm PT
Good analogy JE.
Here is my own,give me one problem in this world where the "free market" has come to the rescue and solved it.

Just one.
jgill

Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
Nov 21, 2016 - 03:49pm PT
Why is no one concerned about overpopulation?

You're probably right, but what can be done in a democracy?
BobSFrankNose

Social climber
Seattle
Nov 21, 2016 - 03:59pm PT
Wow, finally a thoughtful post by John. Saying both sides have to come together and both sides need to work a solution. I'm fine with that. I like it. I would do it, and I am a private property owner.

And then you have Malemute and donkeykong greg that immediately post more name calling and blaming the Koch Brothers. Seriously Malemut, what is your fascination (infatuation) with the Koch Brothers. Do you really think your gaining traction with this line of dribble. And, can I come together with the likes of these guys? Or, would I have to be submissive to their demands and protocols, like a repentant slave to their master. Don't think so. After all, I'm just stupid.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 21, 2016 - 04:02pm PT
Just one.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 21, 2016 - 04:52pm PT
That is all you have,parody,comedy.

No wonder you are sensitive to Malmutes or any others mocking.

Yep,critical thinkers.
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Nov 21, 2016 - 05:21pm PT
After all, I'm just stupid.

At least we finally have consensus.

Curt
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Nov 21, 2016 - 05:26pm PT
I respectfully disagree. Chiloe turned me on to the statistical literature that dealt with my own doubts about climate science, and completely changed my thinking.

John, I have to admit, you are one in thousands who have done the research and had the ability to alter your opinion on the subject.

Folks like EdBannister are so frickin' full of their egos that they cannot dislodge their "beliefs" to look at the facts, and instead eat up the disinformation that is so prevalent in the US MSM.

I honestly don't know how those folks who lie about this subject sleep at night.



Bob writes:

And then you have Malemute and donkeykong greg that immediately post more name calling and blaming the Koch Brothers.

Bob, I respectfully ask you where you get your opinions on climate change. Do you believe what climate scientists write or are you of the opinion that the jury is still out?

If the latter, who do you think is responsible for casting doubt about climate science into your midst?
Fossil climber

Trad climber
Atlin, B. C.
Nov 21, 2016 - 05:47pm PT
A free market solution? Follow the money.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Nov 21, 2016 - 05:55pm PT

Wow, finally a thoughtful post by John. Saying both sides have to come together and both sides need to work a solution. I'm fine with that. I like it. I would do it, and I am a private property owner.

And then you have Malemute and donkeykong greg that immediately post more name calling and blaming the Koch Brothers. Seriously Malemut, what is your fascination (infatuation) with the Koch Brothers. Do you really think your gaining traction with this line of dribble. And, can I come together with the likes of these guys? Or, would I have to be submissive to their demands and protocols, like a repentant slave to their master. Don't think so. After all, I'm just stupid.


So if you were a smoker and your kids (or grandkids) were screaming at you to stop, would their hysteria be reason enough to say screw you attitude I'm going to smoke myself to death?

And what if you rationally knew that you should quite, but emotionally you didn't want to. And your locker room buddies could point to fake medical journals (that were indirectly funded by tobacco companies, but people denied that too) that cast doubt on the connection, and somebody else was arguing that non-smokers get cancer too and somebody else had pretty graphs that had something to do with white blood counts and then you come across adds run by the Koch brothers that look like:

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 21, 2016 - 06:53pm PT
Of course, he is wasting the taxpayer’s dime being on the supertopo website rather than minding business at Lawrence Livermore Labs.

so you know my work schedule?
please take a look at the time of the posts and point out those you think were done "on the taxpayer's dime"

we can go from there... (but just so you know, I'm working at LLNL 70% time for the last year and a half)....
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Shetville , North of Los Angeles
Nov 21, 2016 - 07:03pm PT
The other 30% he's in a Jerry Garcia tribute band...
sandstone conglomerate

climber
sharon conglomerate central
Nov 21, 2016 - 07:06pm PT
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/20/business/energy-environment/a-bleak-outlook-for-trumps-promises-to-coal-miners.html

It's over, Johnny. It's over
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 21, 2016 - 07:12pm PT
Not. to worry,the free market will take care of everything.













Lol.
BobSFrankNose

Social climber
Seattle
Nov 21, 2016 - 07:40pm PT
Ok, I’ll play the game a little longer. And, I will (at K-man’s request) come clean on my opinions. And no offense to Ed H - LLNL- his is one of the good guys, just yanking his chain.

I used to believe all of it and was quite concerned – as were my fellow associates that I worked with (all over 50 at the time – now well into our 60’s, Not all of us were white!). But, we also read contrary points of view (because we wanted to hear both sides of such a possible catastrophic scenario). Initially most of the predictions seemed to line up and be plausible. But, it started to change with other new and updated opinions. We were not climatologist, but we could come up to speed pretty fast on any topic out there and defend it or prosecute it. We could become reasonable experts fast, at least with deception’s.

Then, money and regulations made its way into the politics of global warming and climate change. It was clearly being driving by other forces. It damaged progressive nations and gave the real polluters a pass. I read and listened to people like Richard Lindzen on the corruption of the data. He is just another opinion – not taking him any more serious than the rest. And don’t call him names and trash him with cut and paste sh#t. I’ve read the entire pros and cons of him over the last ten years.

Then I re-saw Inconvenient Truth and saw a completely disturbing side to it, I ask some questions and the name calling begin. Almost a religious fervor from the defenders of climate change – they immediately got hostile and aggressive. Then I read hundreds of the exposed emails from Climate Gate that clearly showed how data was skewed (manipulated might be a better term) for expectant and certain outcomes from the paying people. I investigated the drivers like Michael Mann and Phil Jones and closely read what they said and did and excused themselves, etc. They had a very hard time defending their deeds. But, that’s just another piece of the puzzled to consider.

I saw Gore buy a 9 million dollar mansion in Santa Barbara (Montecito precisely at sea level). Apparently thinking that only the Atlantic Ocean would rise according to his own outlandish predictions – but not the Pacific Ocean? Hypocrisy at every single stop in my reading, and the money factor became more and more of the driver – with global societal control and social justice. Mostly directed at the U.S. Face it; Germany has little skin in the game comparatively. Sweden pfffft. And China – the biggest polluter has NO skin in the game or intentions of living up to anything we demand or put forth as UN law.

I saw individuals and companies lining up for the CCX, cap and trade participation, Gores Company GMI and Goldman Sachs 10% involvement. Further alarm bells went off – as it should. With trillions on the line for the taking - could something else be up? Any question at this point really produced hatred to the inquirer and mostly name calling. I further reconsidered my research.

This thread is a perfect example of a microcosm of my thought development. I asked serious questions on my first post and immediately get berated with my Nov 4, 2:57 post. I pushed back just a little and got further downgraded as a simpleton. No real answers to my real questions – just sh#t flung my way.

Apparently your spokesperson is Malemut and he seems to be the go to guy for the facts and the goodies. But seriously, with a post like this, who wouldn’t laugh out load. And, he gets worse and worse.

Nov 4, 2016 - 09:53am PT Malemut says:
Climate Change: Why aren't more people concerned about it?

(1) the Koch brothers fund a massive disinformation campaign
(2) bitter old white men don't give a damn about the future
(3) people are afraid of change
(4) a large percent of americans are science & math morons
(5) the Dunning Kruger effect
(6) most humans are irrational
(7) stupid people hate smart people
(8) deeply religious people are ipso facto delusional
(9) many people don't distinguish between fact and bullsh#t
(10) your government is corrupt and incompetent


So, I’ve brought up some serious questions about causes and effects and what we can really do about it now, and just hate, spite and name calling tossed my way. Too old for it to matter or effect me.

I’m not saying it isn’t real, not saying it isn’t man-made – just saying that it could have been overblown, exaggerated, overstated for a purpose, and hyperbolic for a conclusion. And, that there is evidence of manipulation with the data for just the right government approved outcome.

So, why wouldn’t anyone question such a huge life ending, world ending scenario without investigating all sides and being a little skeptical.

Really bored now with this!

AND, I am a long time climber, who has climbed with a lot of great people on a lot of really great routes - everywhere in the world. But, fire away with your insults.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 21, 2016 - 07:56pm PT
rick sumner writes:
What theory initiated by Maxwell and elaborated by Feynman et al
whatever that means... perhaps he can elaborate.

The report in Science "Earth and Mars: Evolution of Atmospheres and Surface Temperatures" written by Sagan and Mullen has a nice comparison of the Venus, Earth, Mars atmospheres and surface temps...
http://www.weizmann.ac.il/CPS/sites/CPS/files/sagan_and_mullen_1972.pdf

this paper has 673 citation in Google Scholar, 31 in 2016 which is quite good for such an old paper.

The general model used by Sagan and Mullen works just fine, and requires the CO2 (and other GHG) components.

Note also that Lindzen completely agrees with this, his hypothesis has to do with cloud cover to make the surface temperatures higher during the time in Earth's history when the Sun was weaker (the reason I looked at this paper was that it was referenced in Lindzen's paper). Lindzen disagrees with the idea of extreme temperature change due to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations because some other mechanism will take over to equilibrate the Earth's surface temperature, compensating for the increased CO2.

A recent pre-print describing this, and one that uses all of the modern tools of climate science can be found here:
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1102.3209.pdf
is instructive that it discusses Lindzen's hypothesis (and finds it no very likely, based on scientific reasoning).


Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations increases surface temperature.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Nov 21, 2016 - 08:24pm PT
^^^^Wrong Dr. atmospheric density has much more to do with planetary temps than ghg's . You are aware of Feynman and his work with others on the U.S. standard atmosphere model 1976. You are aware of the gravito thermal effect independent of ghg forcing. Sagan smagan.
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Nov 21, 2016 - 08:35pm PT
the most often quoted stat is the 97 or 98% of atmospheric scientists agree about manmade global warming... but any one who agrees that man is a factor, is counted as if they assign human activity as primary... that stat is not accurate.. and much more interesting, would be a stat of all those who do not have a financial interest in manmade global warming.. i.e. no institutional, departmental or personal grant... funny how most dissenters are safely retired where they can express their real opinions, kind of like conservatives in hollywood. Retire, then tell.

as for bitter.. do you remember all the riots after Obama was elected? I don't.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 21, 2016 - 09:12pm PT
you've got to be kidding, rick,

you have never read the Feynman Lectures in Physics, and you certainly don't understand what was on whatever blog told you that that was the explanation for the surface temperature...

time for you to go out and get into the breeze, then think of how that breeze comes to be.

The Earth's atmosphere is not in thermodynamic equilibrium (there is a rather strong external energy source that needs to be taken into account).

Gravity is very much a part of the climate models...


and the CO2 is mixed, uniformly in altitude to about 100 km...
jgill

Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
Nov 21, 2016 - 09:33pm PT
Assuming the validity of the current science. What is a wise course of action?

1. Begin trying to reduce emissions in our country, hoping that this will mitigate a process that is active and that engulfs the entire world, pleading with other nations to do the same. What is the assurance this would really have the effect we desire? Is it too late for this option? If we sink all economic resources into such a project, what happens if our hoped-for outcome doesn't materialize?

2. Begin serious planning and preparation within our country do deal with predicted climate changes. Here, in the United States. Hope that other nations do the same. Help where we can.


Does the commitment and financial resources allow for both plans of action?

If yes, fine. If no, what then?

FWIW
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Nov 21, 2016 - 09:50pm PT
As far as the blogs go, you should get out of your bubble wrap sometime and read some of the papers republished there. And don't forget the comment section.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 21, 2016 - 11:19pm PT
you should understand what Feynman wrote and what it's applicability is...
as for reading those blogs, it was enough of my time wasted.

The "published papers" seemed to have been withdrawn by the publisher.... and they appear only to exist in the fantasy land of those blogs, which seems to make up all of your reading.

If you possessed the ability, sitting down with the Feynman Lectures in Physics and work through them would be a good start rather than parroting what's written on blogs. My first time through Feynman was 1971 and they are still rather good, I read in them from time to time.

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Nov 21, 2016 - 11:28pm PT
What, Ed , explains the fact that the atmospheric temps of Venus at altitudes corresponding to earth atmosphere surface pressure are the same.

Don't answer. I can't stand the contortions.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 22, 2016 - 12:04am PT
rick, the "hydrostatics" of the atmospheres are governed by the same set of equations, in the approximation that they are hydrostatic, you get your answer, as Feynman, and others, have calculated, no mystery there...

that does not, however, explain the atmosphere's temperature, nor does it explain the surface temperature.

no contortions there...
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Nov 22, 2016 - 05:58am PT
Assuming the validity of the current science. What is a wise course of action?

1. Begin trying to reduce emissions in our country, hoping that this will mitigate a process that is active and that engulfs the entire world, pleading with other nations to do the same. What is the assurance this would really have the effect we desire? Is it too late for this option? If we sink all economic resources into such a project, what happens if our hoped-for outcome doesn't materialize?

2. Begin serious planning and preparation within our country do deal with predicted climate changes. Here, in the United States. Hope that other nations do the same. Help where we can.

I think we need to do both. In terms of "pleading," I believe other more forward thinking nations have been pleading with us to get serious about climate change for some time. The good news (I think) is that something like 193 countries have signed the Paris Agreement.

Curt
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 22, 2016 - 06:31am PT
The effort to combat global warming is just hot air. It's a big money grab.

We're not gonna do jack sh#t.

Curt referenced the Paris Agreement, signed by 193 countries. It's a worthless document. Little more than a vehicle for signatories to say "We care!' It has no detailed timetable or country-specific goals. Worthless.

I'm not saying the consensus is wrong,... just that we (mankind) are not going to effectively address this issue anytime soon.

Without China's participation, efforts to reduce atmospheric CO2 are a waste of time. So, what's China doing? They're building coal fired power plants as fast as they can. They announce their commitment to peaking emissions by 2030. By then CO2 should be over 600ppm. Maybe over 700ppm. Way to step up, China.

But we can still enjoy these lovely threads, with alarmists foaming at the mouth... attacking anyone not on board. Good theater, indeed.
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Nov 22, 2016 - 06:53am PT
Without China's participation, efforts to reduce atmospheric CO2 are a waste of time. So, what's China doing? They're building coal fired power plants as fast as they can.

At least China is doing something. They have actually cancelled plans for many coal-fired plants that were scheduled to be built.

On the 3 September 2016, China ratified the Paris Agreement, and it has policies in place to reach its NDC goals. These policies are currently centred around the targets set in its NDC, which include the target to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 at the latest, lower the carbon intensity of GDP by 60%–65% below 2005 levels by 2030, increase the share of non-fossil energy carriers of the total primary energy supply to around 20% by that time, and increase its forest stock volume by 4.5 billion cubic meters, compared to 2005 levels.

Our analysis shows that China will achieve both its 2020 pledge and its 2030 plans. The announcement that China will peak its CO2 emissions will have a significant impact on global CO2 emissions in the period after 2030...

http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html

Curt






pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Nov 22, 2016 - 07:31am PT



Dingus Milktoast

In terms of carbon taxes - who gets to spend the proceeds and what will it be spent upon?

Also, I can't get behind any global agreement to limit carbon emissions that doesn't include trade sanctions or carbon-tariffs, if you prefer, for all non-compliance nations.

DMT

Brilliant,
Let's start punishing nations like Botswana and Zambia so more children can starve.
You people need a greater understanding of the repercussions of your charade.

The regurgitated rhetoric of Malamute, eeyonkee, et al.. does nothing to help this planet or the people on it. Quite the opposite.
It's inceptions, if implemented, harm those that need our help the most.

Ride a motorcycle, learn to fix things that break instead of going out and buying another, conserve everything, don't litter.
Do an inventory of your own house and pro act accordingly.
Just a small list of real things you can do that actually have a positive impact on your environment.
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Nov 22, 2016 - 07:34am PT
Dingus Milktoast


My charade? F*#k off pud.

DMT




internet tough guys crack me up ^^^^
10b4me

Mountain climber
Retired
Nov 22, 2016 - 07:44am PT
Ride a bicycle

Fixed it for you, pud.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Nov 22, 2016 - 08:01am PT
Ride a motorcycle, learn to fix things that break instead of going out and buying another, conserve everything, don't litter.
Do an inventory of your own house and pro act accordingly.

Sure, personal responsibility will go a long way. Funny you forgot to mention that we need to go veggie at least one or two days a week, if not more. That's a really big one.

But, these efforts by individuals won't amount to squat if the energy secretaries of large governments don't get on board and shift away from non-renewables to sustainable energy grids.

So it will take a global, political movement. The bad news is that it's obvious we're not up to the task. As Trump would say, Sad.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Nov 22, 2016 - 11:23am PT
Sorry about calling you an idiot, Bob.

So, can any of you climate deniers imagine any evidence that could be possibly discovered in the future that would change your minds? I'm thinking a very strong no. It's veracity would instantly be put into doubt by the disinformation machines out there. This is what scares me and frustrates me.

Just so you know, I'm a geologist, and 10 years ago or so I was doubting the science. I was just relying on my sense of things -- for example, that volcanic eruptions would obviously be huge inputs that might make human contributions insignificant. Also, I had been working in the environmental field, where having an end product of CO2 and water is typically what you were after. The idea of CO2 being considered a pollutant was just not on my radar.

Well, it didn't take too long to start boning up on things and realizing that there are a lot of smart scientists out there that are attending to these very questions and putting them to bed. Now, the idea that thousands of them somehow didn't think of something that Bob or Rick read on a blog post or that they are somehow in collusion even though they are from countries all over the world strikes my as hubris of the first order for the folks that believe this.

By the way, do any of you climate change deniers believe in evolution -- among other things that humans evolved from earlier species? There seems to be a strong correlation between deniers on these two topics.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Nov 22, 2016 - 11:33am PT
Without China's participation, efforts to reduce atmospheric CO2 are a waste of time. So, what's China doing? They're building coal fired power plants as fast as they can. They announce their commitment to peaking emissions by 2030. By then CO2 should be over 600ppm. Maybe over 700ppm. Way to step up, China.

China is a convenient scapegoat. Their emissions per capita is way below that of the US. Yes, they are still building coal plants but they also have a lot of older, very dirty, very inefficient coal plants that they are retiring. Replacing those old plants with new, efficient plants is a clear win. They are installing a lot of renewables:

From wikipedia

China’s renewable energy sector is growing faster than its fossil fuels and nuclear power capacity. In 2015 China became world's largest producer of photovoltaic power, at 43 GW installed capacity.[1][2] China also led the world in the production and use of wind power and smart grid technologies, generating almost as much water, wind, and solar energy as all of France and Germany's power plants combined.

They are also making some efforts (not nearly enough) to move their economy from an investment/heavy industry model to a services model.

As I have posted numerous times, China does not make a good scapegoat. India is a little less worrisome because their economy is smaller, but their emissions are still a worry and I see little reason to think they will do anything meaningful.

China's population is a problem, but they had a very aggressive one-child policy to address that. (And that policy is going to cause them other serious problems going forward.) Not really clear what else they can do.
c wilmot

climber
Nov 22, 2016 - 11:37am PT
how many people concerned about climate change are open to limiting the US population through immigration control to ultimately reduce the impact of the USA- the country supposedly causing the most pollution. I hear a lot of talk about climate change- but I rarely hear any rational solution to alter it. Heck we have people who want to go to mars- How much pollution would that cause?
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Nov 22, 2016 - 11:51am PT
1. Begin trying to reduce emissions in our country, hoping that this will mitigate a process that is active and that engulfs the entire world, pleading with other nations to do the same. What is the assurance this would really have the effect we desire? Is it too late for this option? If we sink all economic resources into such a project, what happens if our hoped-for outcome doesn't materialize?

A lot of the things that we could do is not going to hurt the overall economy. It will produce winners and losers but a dynamic economy does that all of the time anyway.


2. Begin serious planning and preparation within our country do deal with predicted climate changes. Here, in the
United States. Hope that other nations do the same. Help where we can.

If the middle class is buying $40,000 electric sports sedans instead of $40,000 gas guzzline SUVs, what's the difference? Without taking pollution into account, renewables are still more expensive than coal, but the gap has narrowed a lot. This is going to be a big industry. So we have jobs in solar and wind and not in coal. Yes, some companies, employees, and stock holders get hit hard, but the overall economy won't notice.

Better insulated houses and more efficient appliances are a good thing anyway. So would eating a little less red meat.

So I think a tremendous amount could be done that didn't have a negative impact on the overall economy and we should do that.

Yes, if we were smart we would do serious planning for climate change. For instance, I don't think there is any viable way to protect Miami/southern Florida long term. We should plan on relocating Miami over the next 100 years. New Orleans also. Manhattan might be protectable, at great expense.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Nov 22, 2016 - 11:53am PT
how many people concerned about climate change are open to limiting the US population through immigration control to ultimately reduce the impact of the USA- the country supposedly causing the most pollution. I hear a lot of talk about climate change- but I rarely hear any rational solution to alter it. Heck we have people who want to go to mars- How much pollution would that cause?

An immigrant to the US will usually use more resources than if they stayed in a less developed country (although they (and their kids) may also have a higher birth rate if they stay). That is a benefit of less immigration.

I think humans in space is a complete waste across the board. I'm also opposed to supersonic plane travel here on earth. But the wealthy are going to spend their money on something. I would rather wealth was more evenly spread.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Nov 22, 2016 - 11:55am PT
Sorry, but I'm just responding to the OP.

People are confused about climate change. Much like evolution, politicians have gotten involved and thrown out a ton of bad information. Fracking is the same way. I know a lot about it, and there is so much bad info on the web that an intelligent person can't understand it.

Also, it isn't something that we will feel in our lifetimes. It is a long term problem, and we seem to be incapable of making decisions that are painful or economically expensive, when the consequences are in the future. Humans are practically wired that way.

We won't accept it as a species until it hits us in the face. By that time, consequences will occur and it will be too late. In a sense.

The physics of the problem are pretty straightforward. That said, I doubt that the current political leadership in this country will do anything about climate change.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Nov 22, 2016 - 12:12pm PT
Before Trump said that Climate Change was something the Chinese invented, I had never heard anything like that. Apparently he has even said he meant it as a joke. Is everything he says a joke?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/22/us/politics/donald-trump-visit.html?_r=0

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-tells-trump-climate-change-153843365.html

http://graduateinstitute.ch/files/live/sites/iheid/files/sites/admininst/shared/doc-professors/luterbacher%20chapter%202%20102.pdf


Also, it isn't something that we will feel in our lifetimes.

Probably not true unless you mean in a show-stopping way. The flooding of the New York Subways and a substantially higher percentage of water vapor in the atmosphere say volumes. There are so many more examples! We all have to remember the well worn maxim that weather is not climate though....snicker, snicker.

k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Nov 22, 2016 - 12:52pm PT
Base, you make it sound like fracking is safe. But then I hear about all these cases where they claim it contaminates the ground water. What's the deal?



In response to the question in the OP, the folks in Bolivia are pretty concerned about it. La Paz is just about out of water.

This is not a small thing.
rbord

Boulder climber
atlanta
Nov 22, 2016 - 01:02pm PT
What's the big deal? We've got 1000+ years to figure it out, if nothing else requires our attention in the mean time. But, heck, we've got big brains - why should a little struggle for survival get in the way of working out the solution to this problem?

http://m.csmonitor.com/Science/2016/1117/Why-Stephen-Hawking-says-we-have-1-000-years-to-find-a-new-home
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Nov 22, 2016 - 01:33pm PT
In regards to fraccing:
Groundwater contamination usually occurs due to casing integrity issues and poor cement jobs (including cementing just above and below a producing zone instead of cementing to surface). Better regulations and engineering practices will dramatically decrease the probability of this occurring.
Of course this costs money and many companies will only do what they have to (just squeak by and not exceed regulations).
The chances of fraccing up into the groundwater is non existent (assuming good casing integrity) unless there are major faults that continue up to shallow depths. Almost all faults peter out long before the surface.
I know there have been cases of gas in ground water caused by naturally occurring shallow coal seams which water wells have drilled through.
Gas analysis can determine which zone the gas comes from.
Reports of ground water contamination should be investigated by impartial groups conducting a thorough analysis.
The oil and gas industry, like all others, should not be self regulated. This is the job of the govt
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Nov 22, 2016 - 04:04pm PT
Damn, Malemute -- that is an overwhelming number of relevant links might I say! A person could learn a lot about the subject from these links (if you can get past the inclusion of punters like Hawking and Sagan -- not to mention Asimov).
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Nov 22, 2016 - 05:42pm PT
I'm kind of surprised that somebody on the denier team did not challenge my challenge to them of coming up with a plausible scenario where some new piece of information could make them concede that, indeed, the other team is correct in the science.

I assumed that somebody would throw this right back in my face. So, let me tell you how I might plausibly change my opinion.

Let me start off by saying that it is highly improbable that this could happen because of the checks and balances in the science community. Having said that. Let's say that essentially all climate models that predict catastrophic human-caused global warming depended on this "constant" -- you know, values like 3.47 or 0.000037. Now let's say that the guy who came up with that constant suddenly realized that he was supposed to be using "metric". If I, as a climate modeler depended on the value of this constant for my model going one way or the other; I would concede that I was wrong after finding out about this new piece of information.

eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Nov 22, 2016 - 05:58pm PT
Thanks for the recommendation on the Tyson video, Malemute! I didn't see that the first time through. As Trump might say, "Very effective!".
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Shetville , North of Los Angeles
Nov 22, 2016 - 06:01pm PT
TGT2....When did you start wearing coveralls..?
10b4me

Mountain climber
Retired
Nov 22, 2016 - 06:10pm PT
Trump has changed his mind about climate change. Lol.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Nov 22, 2016 - 06:10pm PT
EdwardT said
I'm not saying the consensus is wrong,... just that we (mankind) are not going to effectively address this issue anytime soon.


This, to me, is like not voting or voting for Johnson in the last election. You are being a punter. What needs to be clarified is the veracity of the science vs. the reasonable solutions that can be taken to mitigate the problem. As Malemute has been saying all along, there are a few individuals - the Koch brothers, in particular, that are invested in obfuscating the facts.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 22, 2016 - 06:51pm PT
This, to me, is like not voting or voting for Johnson in the last election. You are being a punter.

Apparently, you're a moron.

What needs to be clarified is the veracity of the science vs. the reasonable solutions that can be taken to mitigate the problem.

Or maybe not.

Reasonable solutions? Enlighten us to reasonable solutions that would reverse the trend of rising CO2 levels. The key word being "reasonable. Something the global leaders would agree to and stick by.

I've asked this question for years. People offer clean energy options. Unfortunately, they're little more than bandaids on a severed artery.
jgill

Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
Nov 22, 2016 - 06:58pm PT
Probably, by this time no matter what is done Miami will sleep with the fishys. Sad.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Nov 22, 2016 - 08:08pm PT
Ed, Rick, Bob and the rest of your team -- you want to rebut Asimov and Hawking and Musk and Sagan, et al? They must've missed the blog you read.
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
Nov 22, 2016 - 09:04pm PT
There's a chance I think that Pres DJT just might turn out to be a blessing in disguise... on a number of issues... incl climate change.

Boy, that would be something.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/22/opinion/at-lunch-donald-trump-gives-critics-hope.html

If he studies the issue "very deeply" and ends up "moderating his views" then he could be "very influential" with the "deniers".

How about that? :)

...


Feel that?

It is the "normalization" of Trump that is underway.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Nov 22, 2016 - 09:09pm PT
^^^^^^That rascal!
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Nov 22, 2016 - 11:48pm PT
Here is my own,give me one problem in this world where the "free market" has come to the rescue and solved it.

What do you mean by "free market?" Certain conditions need to apply for a market to perform properly. Property rights probably top the list, along with predictable and consistent law enforcement.

The list where the market (meaning using prices to allocate goods and services) have rescued from benighted alternatives would overwhelm these pages and co-opt this thread, which was about dealing with climate change. Still, feeding the world's population would be a good start. Central planning killed millions of citizens in the USSR. Markets allocate food resources (and the resources needed to produce food) much more efficiently than centrally-regulated ones, or any other option.

Of course, those who decry our current population would point this out as a problem, not a rescue, but my retort is both mean and simple. If you contend the population is too high, why are you still alive? Any rational, moral answer to that question will include the need to feed the current population.

John
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 23, 2016 - 01:24am PT
If you contend the population is too high, why are you still alive?

I think that is a false statement of the problem. We can certainly do a lot without killing ourselves, and killing ourselves won't help unless it happens at the birth rate...

since we will all die, a more effective attempt reducing the population would be to provide women the ability to plan their families.

The markets cannot expand exponentially, the resources are limited, so there is no market solution to the problem of providing food for an expanding population once those resource limits are reached.
Jon Beck

Trad climber
Oceanside
Nov 23, 2016 - 03:37am PT
The markets cannot expand exponentially, the resources are limited, so there is no market solution to the problem of providing food for an expanding population once those resource limits are reached.

Food shortages are a similar issue we faced with water. Increased efficiency has bailed us out of the alleged water shortage.

There are huge gains to be had in our food production system

http://ajcn.nutrition.org/content/78/3/660S.full

At present, the US livestock population consumes more than 7 times as much grain as is consumed directly by the entire American population (11). The amount of grains fed to US livestock is sufficient to feed about 840 million people who follow a plant-based diet (7). From the US livestock population, a total of about 8 million tons (metric) of animal protein is produced annually. With an average distribution assumed, this protein is sufficient to supply about 77 g of animal protein daily per American. With the addition of about 35 g of available plant protein consumed per person, a total of 112 g of protein is available per capita in the United States per day (11). Note that the recommended daily allowance (RDA) for adults per day is 56 g of protein from a mixed diet. Therefore, based on these data, each American consumes about twice the RDA for protein. Americans on average are eating too much and are consuming about 1000 kcal in excess per day per capita (12, 13). The protein consumed per day on the lactoovovegetarian diet is 89 g per day. This is significantly lower than the 112 g for the meat-based diet but still much higher than the RDA of 56 g per day.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 23, 2016 - 05:05am PT
The only way out of this is a free market approach, and a huge financial enterprising incentive for some smart Americans (not Canadian’s – you can’t seem to get over yourselves pointing figures) to solve the problem – which they will do eventually.

BobSFranknose.

Sure,I could generalize that markets are responsible for some of the things you mentioned JE.Would that be an answer to the above.
Hardly.

I could also state that "free markets" are the reason we have this mess[CC],not to mention current war[s]..

So ,when you ask me what did I mean,give me a specific,just one ,where the free market solved any world problem.

That is what I mean.
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Nov 23, 2016 - 06:42am PT
Do you think the "free market" has provided society with anything beneficial?
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 23, 2016 - 07:11am PT
How about a "Hands Across The World" event?

We can all sing Kumbaya...

then promise to do our darndest to minimize our carbon footprints.

It could work.

We won't know unless we try.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 23, 2016 - 08:50am PT
How about a "Hands Across The World" event?


couldn't hurt...

but reducing the carbon footprint using a carbon tax will provide the incentives for people to choose what they want to pay for... you want to drive a Hummer around? you can, you just pay the price of the carbon emission... eat beef, sure thing, at added costs... buy that knick-knack manufactured in S.E. Asia and shipped, at less then $0.10/pound anywhere in the world... the price goes up, but you get to buy it if you want...

figuring all that out top down would be impossible, letting the market equilibrate naturally (with all the unexpected innovation, etc) would be much more efficient.

the revenue generated by the tax can be used to mitigate the burden on those people (and countries) that would be adversely affected by tax, but also to invest in the mitigations that reduce the carbon emissions, research AND development, incentives to use alternatives.

Energy will cost more because the costs will include the exhaust-end expenses, including the cost of alternative energy, whose production and implementation is currently carbon dependent.
c wilmot

climber
Nov 23, 2016 - 09:00am PT
Carbon taxes only hurt the poor who use the least resources. You think Bono gives s damn about pollution on world tour with U2? Have you thought about the plight of the people commuting from Stockton to SF to work in the service industry? How much more will those carbon taxes cost them to earn a living?
Jon Beck

Trad climber
Oceanside
Nov 23, 2016 - 09:04am PT
Bono does not have to give a sh it about pollution. With a stiff carbon tax on fuel the corporations running his jets are sure as hell going to find the most efficient way to make money. Classic free market operation
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 23, 2016 - 09:05am PT
you can focus on what is taken away by a tax, but you should also think how the revenue of the tax could be distributed, which is equally important...

Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Nov 23, 2016 - 09:10am PT
How about a carrot? Instead of a ( tax ) stick?

Even Republicans will get behind a tax break.
c wilmot

climber
Nov 23, 2016 - 09:16am PT
It would likely go to illegals as much if our social services do. Perhaps we should enforce our border and not allow a massive overpopulation of the US. Perhaps we should scrap NASA and any plans for the moon. Same for space tourism

CA fines people for using to much water- do the rich care? Same thing with a carbon tax
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 23, 2016 - 09:18am PT
a carbon tax would affect everyone... as does the consequences of unabated CO2 release into the atmosphere, an atmosphere that is shared by everyone...

the planet is a shared resource for the entire human population... closing the boarders doesn't change that
c wilmot

climber
Nov 23, 2016 - 09:19am PT
It would affect the poor far more. As always that's of no concern for those doing fine
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 23, 2016 - 09:20am PT
the use of the tax revenue can make the carbon tax progressive, alleviating the burden on those that cannot afford it as much as others
c wilmot

climber
Nov 23, 2016 - 09:24am PT
That's like saying illegals will lower the cost of arugula while not caring that they lower wages and increase job competition amongst the poor. The idea that a carbon tax will "trickle down" to the poor is absurd
10b4me

Mountain climber
Retired
Nov 23, 2016 - 09:24am PT

It would likely go to illegals as much if our social services do. Perhaps we should enforce our border and not allow a massive overpopulation of the US. Perhaps we should scrap NASA and any plans for the moon. Same for space tourism

Here we go again. It's always about the damned illegals.
Dude, do you not understand that the world as a whole is overpopulated?

Note: I actually agree with you on something. I am in favor of reducing space exploration.
c wilmot

climber
Nov 23, 2016 - 09:26am PT
The US is the worst polluter.how can you be concerned about the climate while promoting overpopulation? Same as the mars nonsense. It's hypocritical.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 23, 2016 - 09:38am PT
Hypocritical my ass.

So you cannot have an opinion or stance against the oil machine when you are forced to be part of it. BS.

Renewables ,renewables,renewables. They are our way out of oil companies control.
Whilst creating a new economy.

Yes,I know you stockholders could suffer
Good.
c wilmot

climber
Nov 23, 2016 - 09:44am PT
Wilbeer- its hypocritical to want to go to mars while saying you are concerned about climate change. You misunderstood my comment.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Nov 23, 2016 - 09:47am PT
A broad carbon taxing Scheme is the wet dream of scientists who see a funding conduit for endless studies. Some of these scientists are multi generational and are rightly concerned for their progeny who they encouraged to join the family business.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 23, 2016 - 09:51am PT
Cling to that Rick. It will be nice for you and yours not hearing NASA announce the hottest year ever ,every year.




About sick of hearing about hypocrites .
dirtbag

climber
Nov 23, 2016 - 10:01am PT
If Clinton was elected, NASA climate funding wouldn't be in jeopardy.

It will be burned down, however, just like you wished.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Nov 23, 2016 - 11:23am PT
So, my (and Malemute's) posts have focused on getting an agreement on the fact that human-caused climate change is real. If half of the American people don't even believe that, it's hard to even start to have useful arguments on what we can do. Once you DO concede that it is happening, doing nothing is clearly not an appropriate response.

It seems to me that there are two categories of response; mitigating the global warming effect itself, and mitigating the repercussions. To be perfectly honest, I'm kind of a pessimist that we can do much about the first, although we have to try. If you deny the science, you greatly hurt you ability to appropriately respond to the repercussions.

Most of civilization lives near the coast. There will be lots of displacements of humans from the very near coast to higher locales. There will be disruptions in fisheries as the acidifying oceans kill off shallow water fish. There will be a bunch of this kind of stuff. It's going to cost trillions. We are going to have to weigh the after-the-fact cost with the prevention cost, knowing that the preventative measures may or may not work.

I write risk assessment software for a living. Setting the proper weight for the likely effectiveness of the preventative measures in light of their costs seems like one of the harder terms to get right. It's going to take really good science.
dirtbag

climber
Nov 23, 2016 - 11:52am PT
Good thing she lost, then.

NASA funding should always be in jeopardy, otherwise its just entitlement.

DMT

You know what I mean. Cmon.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Nov 23, 2016 - 12:00pm PT
Hey, so I hadn't really thought so much about this problem from a risk assessment standpoint. Duh! It is exactly a risk assessment problem -- and people are wired not to properly assess risk when the consequences are in the future.

I've been involved with writing risk assessment software for the oil and gas pipeline industry for the last 16 years. The most basic equation in risk assessment is Risk = Likelihood x Consequence. With pipelines, when they are within high population or environmentally-sensitive areas, they will typically have a very high Consequence (of failure); much higher say than somewhere in the Mojave desert. High risk on the Likelihood side is typically the result of being in areas in which idiots are likely to drill or run into the pipeline or where older pipe is in a highly-corrosive environment or where the pipeline crosses the San Andreas fault or something.

From a risk assessment standpoint, consequence is typically the side of the basic equation that can be defined most accurately. Likelihood is always the tougher of the two to predict. In the case of climate change, the likelihood side of the equation is obvious to the people who study the problem. The remaining questions are really all about the timing and extent. It is not to the general public.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Nov 23, 2016 - 12:39pm PT
Let me start off by saying that it is highly improbable that this could happen because of the checks and balances in the science community. Having said that. Let's say that essentially all climate models that predict catastrophic human-caused global warming depended on this "constant" -- you know, values like 3.47 or 0.000037. Now let's say that the guy who came up with that constant suddenly realized that he was supposed to be using "metric". If I, as a climate modeler depended on the value of this constant for my model going one way or the other; I would concede that I was wrong after finding out about this new piece of information.

They have climate records that go back thousands of years in time. They have run the computer model against historical records to see if the models can recreate the changes that happened in the past. If the model was that far off, they wouldn't be able to do that.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Nov 23, 2016 - 12:47pm PT
The idea that a carbon tax will "trickle down" to the poor is absurd

Economically and technically it wouldn't be hard at all to have some form of a trickle down carbon tax.

You could, for instance, raise the gas tax (over some period of time) to 2 or 3 dollars a gallon. You then take all of this revenue and divide it by the number of Americans that have a social security number (or maybe you would want to limit it to those over 18), and write them all checks every 3 or six months (or tack it onto their tax return). So a poor person who doesn't own a car, or is frugal in car driving gets a subsidy and the person who puts a lot of mileage on a big SUV loses out.

Trucks would contribute a large amount of revenue. The income a poor person would get from this would be significant compared to their overall income. For middle calls and above it would not. So this would be progressive in the same way that sales tax and flat tax are regressive.

eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Nov 23, 2016 - 12:56pm PT
From the first link of the last post by Malemute.

... which is in turn influenced by the underlying strength of the THC. When the THC is strong, this warms the North Atlantic (increasing the N-S SST gradient), whereas when the THC is weak, this cools the North Atlantic (decreasing the N-S SST gradient). The Atlantic THC exhibits natural, ...


As somebody from Boulder, I find this quite interesting...I had no idea.
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Nov 25, 2016 - 06:31am PT
"Save water by taking shorter showers and abstaining from washing your car."

This guy must not actually get a water bill. Shorter showers is a BS answer.

Rip up your lawn and you save water. My water bill ranges from 15-25 thousand gallons in the summer to 2000-3000 gallons in the winter. You can guess the difference isn't from longer showers in the summer...

eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Nov 25, 2016 - 01:31pm PT
More good links Malemute! Appreciate your efforts. This thread is becoming a good compilation of relevant links. It's educational to sit down (with a beer (or two -- oil cans even) or not) and peruse them.
Fat Dad

Trad climber
Los Angeles, CA
Nov 25, 2016 - 10:06pm PT
TGT2, how does your brain muster the sufficient spark to make your lungs work, because it certainly hasn't generated an intelligent thought on this thread.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 27, 2016 - 05:18pm PT
what is it about internet forums that causes otherwise intelligent people to resort to ad hominem arguments?

There are the types who have no argument, no rebuttal, and no understanding of the issues, so no recourse but to direct their posts against the poster.

There are the types who feel they have to react against the (intentionally) provoking posts (which may also be irrelevant), posts which need no response (indeed, they elicit response, and not through the relevance to the topic at hand).

If some member of the STForum community wants to post silliness in an effort to provoke, why not let them, and leave it alone. The posts speak for themselves, need no further comment.




Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Nov 27, 2016 - 05:34pm PT
That's exactly why more people aren't concerned about climate change.

Malamute is a perfect example of what is turning people off. Never misses a chance to hurl an insult.

Multiply Malemute by a thousand, spread them around the country, and people just tune out.

And you wonder how a revenue-neutral carbon tax initiative won't pass in Washington State of all places.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 27, 2016 - 06:12pm PT
So Chaz, your argument is that because people are unpleasant, you won't listen to their arguments even if they are good ones? If we were all polite, and used language that wasn't interpreted by others as intimidating, then we might actually start to make progress on climate change?

Interesting that you would suggest this avenue for making progress.

For those you might point to on oneside of the discussion, there seem to be an equal number on the other side... perhaps both sides should find a way to be polite.
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Nov 27, 2016 - 06:21pm PT
I do know that if you're selling something, it helps to be pleasant.

Especially if what you're selling, you're keeping secret.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 27, 2016 - 06:34pm PT
A new term comes to mind ,"weekend denier" might just fit.

Is that insulting?

Or more just to the point,the evidence is in,really.Malemute is correct and has put up with just the same.

Climate Change certainly turns some off,oh well,the problem does not care .
Fat Dad

Trad climber
Los Angeles, CA
Nov 27, 2016 - 06:36pm PT
Ed, you are correct. Next time, I will listen to the better angels of my nature.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 27, 2016 - 06:59pm PT
Especially if what you're selling, you're keeping secret.

The whole point of the discussion of the science of climate change, and the consequences of that change and of the possible mitigations, is it to have it in the open

Certainly all the R&D that the USG does is done in the open, every detail.
jgill

Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
Nov 27, 2016 - 07:03pm PT
At Miami Beach the ocean level is rising 1/3 inch per year and accelerating.

Probably best not to retire there. At least on land.

wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 27, 2016 - 07:07pm PT
Yes indeed.

Look ,an attempt by the Free Market.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/big-business-donald-trump-paris-climate-deal_us_582d0818e4b030997bbd7d11
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Nov 27, 2016 - 08:14pm PT
Failure to do so “puts American prosperity at risk,” Nike, eBay, The North Face and hundreds of other U.S. companies wrote in an open letter Wednesday addressed to Trump, President Barack Obama, members of Congress and global leaders.

Haha !
Blackmail attempt by Chinese product brokers.
This will work.

Let the free market decide what is best for the planet.
What possible conflicts of interest could there be?

The proposed carbon tax is like giving money to an alcoholic thinking he will spend it on rehab.
Fools get what they deserve. Too bad the rest of us are along for the ride.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 27, 2016 - 08:39pm PT
Let the free market decide what is best for the planet.
What possible conflicts of interest could there be?

The proposed carbon tax is like giving money to an alcoholic thinking he will spend it on rehab.
Fools get what they deserve. Too bad the rest of us are along for the ride.


the "free market" approach to North Atlantic Cod completely decimated the species population, the result of which collapsed the Northeastern American fishing industry. The argument was made that people with a vested interest (the fishermen) knew better than the scientists studying the various fish species... that the "market" should decide, and what it decided, essentially, was to continue to over fish, and basically killed that industry.

The "tragedy of the commons" plays out in a number of ways, and it is well known that the "free market" approach does not result in the preservation of common resources.

The atmosphere is a common resource, shared by everyone, but we do not "pay" for the use of it, especially true of the stuff we exhaust into it. The "free market" will not fix this problem, and the results are even more far ranging than the collapse of the various industrially fished wild species.

A carbon tax, which necessarily is a part of government management of this resource (the atmosphere), reflects the cost of one aspect of our use of the atmosphere, as a dump for carbon. By costing that use, and attaching it to the source of the carbon (the fossil fuels) the cost of that energy source goes up. The "free market" gets to decide whether to use that energy source at the increased cost, or to seek alternatives.

The government uses the tax revenue to mitigate the adverse effect on the poor, and to fund R&D for alternatives, while providing a disincentive to exhausting the waste into the atmosphere.

Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Nov 27, 2016 - 08:47pm PT
In the age of Trump? That's going to be one tough sell.

Look around the rest of the country. There are only three or four other states like California who have both Democrat governors and Democrat majority legislatures.

What kind of strategy would you have for getting the Republicans to go along with tax increases to fund bigger government?
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Nov 27, 2016 - 09:00pm PT
Let the free market decide what is best for the planet.
What possible conflicts of interest could there be?

I hope you caught the sarcasm in this statement Ed.
I'm not sure I could argue this point as eloquently as you have.

Giving millions of dollars to corrupt governments in the hope they will use it in good faith is a catastrophic fail.

Punishing nations that do not subscribe to the global warming crusader's ideas and beliefs is criminal.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 27, 2016 - 09:05pm PT
if you are asking me, I take a longer view of it than just one administration, or one Congress, or one state legislature...

talking about California, it wasn't long ago that there was a Republican Governor... and the same sort of partisan chaos on budgets, taxes, etc... redistricting and electoral reform (initiative driven) have considerably changed that...
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 27, 2016 - 09:18pm PT
Giving millions of dollars to corrupt governments in the hope they will use it in good faith is a catastrophic fail.

Punishing nations that do not subscribe to the global warming crusader's ideas and beliefs is criminal.


It is hard to disagree with the point that the tax revenue should be not be used for corrupt ends, and I don't think anyone has proposed that.

"Punishing nations" is not what we're talking about, paying for the use of a resource, such as exhausting CO2 into the atmosphere, is what the issue at hand is about. A nation could very well decide not to pay, but their goods might be tariffed in international trade as a consequence. They make a choice, as one of many users of the atmosphere, but the community of users have recourse to recover those unpaid costs.

The issue of climate change, and its relationship with human activity, is not just an ideology, it stands on solid scientific findings. While these findings may not be able to tell us what, exactly, is going to happen, the range of possible futures represents a risk of substantial consequence.

Because we can mitigate that risk by altering human activity, and our ability to mitigate depends on early action, it is natural to consider the most efficient mechanism for altering that activity, a carbon tax.
Al Barkamps

Social climber
Red Stick
Nov 27, 2016 - 09:37pm PT
...is not just an ideology, it stands on solid scientific findings.

Human history is replete with catastrophic events that were built on ideology, with all logic to the contrary. Our response to global warming will be no different, until it's far too late, as it is now.

None of my kids currently see the point in subjecting offspring to our stupidities; logic just continues to confirm this daily. So, in a way, we're doing our part: reducing our future footprint by keeping a new generation from adding more mouths to a mangled planet.

In the meantime, we've grabbed a few deckchairs and are enjoying the band as the Titanic lists a little more.
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Nov 27, 2016 - 09:49pm PT
Also, I can't get behind any global agreement to limit carbon emissions that doesn't include trade sanctions or carbon-tariffs, if you prefer, for all non-compliance nations.

DMT

This type of thinking is common among the GW crowd.
It takes from those that have the least.
How arrogant the thought of starving children to save the planet.
I mean, what the f*#k?

A nation could very well decide not to pay, but their goods might be tariffed in international trade as a consequence. They make a choice, as one of many users of the atmosphere, but the community of users have recourse to recover those unpaid costs.

Putting tarriffs on traded goods of a nation because it does not or cannot participate in the GW band aid theory is punishment.
The narrow mind is a dangerous thing.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 28, 2016 - 01:06am PT
Putting tarriffs on traded goods of a nation because it does not or cannot participate in the GW band aid theory is punishment.
The narrow mind is a dangerous thing.


You have setup a strawman here, assuming an implementation that is overly simplistic to make a point that is obviously extreme. The further assumption that this is the result of a "narrow mind" is similarly unwarranted.

Tariffs, in an international free trade regime, can only happen with the affirmation of the trading partners.

If a poor nation cannot afford the increased energy costs that it will take to mitigate anthropogenic climate change, resources can be made available (from the tax revenue, for example) to offset the increased energy costs, but certainly not for energy that generates CO2.

Nations that decide not to tax carbon, but otherwise could, are not being punished, they are paying their share of the use of the atmosphere for dumping their CO2. They can certainly decide to do that, they cannot get out of paying their bill.

But there are many implementation strategies that take the various factors, including the poor nations (and people) of the world.

The disparaging comment regarding "GW band aid theory" might indicate that you have questions regarding how the risk and consequences of anthropogenic climate change are established. While it may seem to you to be easier to argue that poor people will starve to death, you have little evidence that this would happen. In the worst-case scenario of anthropogenic climate change people will likely face grave shortages of food and water and other life sustaining necessities.

A case can be made that letting it happen is worse for the very people that you are concerned about than the proposed mitigations would be.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 28, 2016 - 09:15am PT
an interesting study from the American Physical Society on the cost of taking the CO2 that we are putting into the atmosphere out...

http://www.aps.org/policy/reports/assessments/upload/dac2011.pdf

from the Executive Summary:

"This report explores direct air capture (DAC) of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere with chemicals. DAC involves a system in which ambient air flows over a chemical sorbent that selectively removes the CO2. The CO2 is then released as a concentrated stream for disposal or reuse, while the sorbent is regenerated and the CO2-depleted air is returned to the atmosphere.

To guide the reader to an understanding of the factors affecting costs, a benchmark system is introduced that could be built today. With optimistic assumptions about some important technical parameters, the cost of this system is estimated to be of the order of $600 or more per metric ton of CO2. Significant uncertainties in the process parameters result in a wide, asymmetric range associated with this estimate, with higher values being more likely than lower ones. Thus, DAC is not currently an economically viable approach to mitigating climate change. Any commercially interesting DAC system would require significantly lower avoided CO2 costs, and thus would likely have a design very different from the benchmark system investigated in this report. This report identifies some of the key issues that need to be addressed in alternative designs.

The physical scale of the air contactor in any DAC system is a formidable challenge. A typical contactor will capture about 20 tons of CO2 per year for each square meter of area through which the air flows. Since a 1000-megawatt coal power plant emits about six million metric tons of CO2 per year, a DAC system consisting of structures 10-meters high that removes CO2 from the atmosphere as fast as this coal plant emits CO2 would require structures whose total length would be about 30 kilometers. Large quantities of construction materials and chemicals would be required. It is likely that the full cost of the benchmark DAC system scaled to capture six million metric tons of CO2 per year would be much higher than alternative strategies providing equivalent decarbonized electricity. As a result, even if costs fall significantly, coherent CO2 mitigation would result in the deployment of DAC only after nearly all significant point sources of fossil CO2 emissions are eliminated, either by substitution of non-fossil alternatives or by capture of nearly all of their CO2 emissions."


one of a number of studies answering the question: "what are you going to do about it?"
most of these studies conclude that we should stop exhausting CO2 into the atmosphere...
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Nov 28, 2016 - 09:32am PT
You're preaching to your choir Ed. Minds on the other side (which it turns out is a great majority) are not open to the same old arguments and the global governance controlled bondage through taxation solution to a vastly conflated problem.

Perhaps you would be more effective at pushing more local solutions. To wit; by some estimates there are tens of millions of standing dead evergreens in your beautiful state. Would it not be wise to log these dead before fire releases the stored co2 in a true catastophe?
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Nov 28, 2016 - 10:38am PT
What kind of strategy would you have for getting the Republicans to go along with tax increases to fund bigger government?

Until they are voted out of office, I think the world is 'effed.

On a more wonkish note: since the government needs some level of tax income, we could create carbon taxes and offset it with reduced taxes somewhere else. And for gasoline taxes, I would be fine with adding up all of the gasoline taxes and then returning the money as part of tax rebates.
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Nov 28, 2016 - 12:17pm PT
Mr West writes:

"On a more wonkish note: since the government needs some level of tax income, we could create carbon taxes and offset it with reduced taxes somewhere else."



That's exactly what was on the ballot in WA ( I-732 ) It was going to give a tax cut to every single person in Washington in exchange for enacting a carbon tax on those who spew carbon. It lost.

Not even The Sierra Club thought it was a good idea.

http://www.sierraclub.org/washington/sierra-club-position-carbon-washington-ballot-initiative-732

Washington voted Hillary in a landslide. Legalized gay marriage and marijuana by initiative. But a revenue-neutral carbon tax couldn't get any support there in the greenest of green states.

The science may be settled, but a lot of hearts and minds are still up in the air.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 28, 2016 - 01:07pm PT
" That's exactly what was on the ballot in WA ( I-732 ) It was going to give a tax cut to every single person in Washington in exchange for enacting a carbon tax on those who spew carbon. It lost.

Not even The Sierra Club thought it was a good idea."

Actually the Sierra Club opposed it because they didn't want it to be tax neutral. They wanted a far more extreme and bureaucratic policy, where it would all be a tax increase, with all the new money to be spent on their pet projects. So they were far too eco-nutty about what voters will accept, refused to accept anything less, thereby confusing the voters and getting nothing accomplished.

I also suspect there are a number of voters who don't want Washington state to unilaterally take such action if most other states don't. But they would be in favor of a revenue neutral carbon tax if:
A. It is done on a federal level and
B. Other countries also quickly comply with reasonable decreases on their own GHG emissions, at least a majority of the major emitting countries.

The biggest impediment is actually A, not B.

Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 28, 2016 - 01:12pm PT
"Minds on the other side (which it turns out is a great majority) are not open"

Wrong.
The majority of people do accept the scientific consensus of climate change. Trump, you, and Koch are in the denier minority.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Nov 28, 2016 - 01:17pm PT
You're preaching to your choir Ed. Minds on the other side (which it turns out is a great majority) are not open to the same old arguments and the global governance controlled bondage through taxation solution to a vastly conflated problem.


What the hell does this even mean?
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Nov 28, 2016 - 03:24pm PT
and the global governance controlled bondage through taxation solution to a vastly conflated problem.
This is the part I am having trouble with, specifically.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 28, 2016 - 05:30pm PT
I have talked of this earlier,it will be here and I will help fund it.

http://www.takepart.com/article/2016/07/28/experimental-artificial-leaf-solar-cell-converts-co2-usable-fuel?cmpid=ait-ad-fb-keywee&kwp_0=270379&kwp_4=1035091&kwp_1=488216
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 28, 2016 - 06:48pm PT
That a boy
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 28, 2016 - 08:16pm PT
To wit; by some estimates there are tens of millions of standing dead evergreens in your beautiful state. Would it not be wise to log these dead before fire releases the stored co2 in a true catastophe?

Interesting question, but it turns out that the amount of timber exceeds the annual harvest by a factor of about 10, and much of the wood is not suitable for lumber, and is used other ways, including being burned for energy and more often just burned.

http://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/California-has-66-million-dead-trees-and-nowhere-8337745.php

http://articles.latimes.com/2003/jul/13/local/me-wood13

http://www.visaliatimesdelta.com/story/news/local/2016/04/22/trying-keep-dead-trees-california-forests/83400444/
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Nov 28, 2016 - 09:26pm PT
There was an editorial in the LA Times a while back on this. The writer,
of no little repute, said those dead snags are more or less business as
usual - nothing to see, folks, y'all can go home and quit reading the
media's frothy sensationalism. Now, I admit it looks bad but she had
solid numbers to back up her assertions.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Nov 28, 2016 - 10:33pm PT
Looks to me like decades of too aggressive of fire fighting efforts and the forced retreat of commercial harvesters are significant contributers to a too dense forest ecosystem that is highly susceptible to die off from infestation and drought.
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Nov 30, 2016 - 01:14pm PT
ANTHROPOCENE

"Published on Nov 15, 2016

Human impacts on the way our planet functions have now become so extreme many scientists are claiming the Earth has shifted out of the Holocene state and into a new geological epoch. They’re calling it ‘The Anthropocene’, the new age of humans, because millions of years after we are gone, the scar of our existence will be visible in the rocks of tomorrow. In this episode we look at how the last 60 years of socio economic growth has transformed the human race into a geological force to rival nature."

[Click to View YouTube Video]


What the 1% Don't Want You to Know
Bill Moyers :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzQYA9Qjsi0

[Click to View YouTube Video]
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 30, 2016 - 11:43pm PT
[Click to View YouTube Video]

[Click to View YouTube Video]
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Dec 1, 2016 - 07:34am PT
Human impacts on the way our planet functions have now become so extreme many scientists are claiming the Earth has shifted out of the Holocene state and into a new geological epoch. They’re calling it ‘The Anthropocene’, the new age of humans, because millions of years after we are gone, the scar of our existence will be visible in the rocks of tomorrow. In this episode we look at how the last 60 years of socio economic growth has transformed the human race into a geological force to rival nature."

It's posts like this that make the GW crowd look like a group of bored, pseudo scientists drumming up drama just so they have something to talk about.
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Dec 1, 2016 - 07:47am PT
Brought to you from the bitter north ^^^
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Dec 1, 2016 - 11:56am PT
How come this is frequently treated as a political topic?
It is not
It is a scientific topic
The political part is what we will do in response.
People shouldn't waste their time arguing about whether it is happening or whether we are responsible. Rather we should be focussing on solutions
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Dec 1, 2016 - 01:09pm PT
(6) skeptics are willing to put some effort into understanding the science

I agree with you, Malemute, up to the point quoted above, which you do not state strongly enough. Skeptics practice science. We build our science on skepticism. Deniers and believers lacking skepticism both practice religion.

John
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Dec 1, 2016 - 01:27pm PT
People shouldn't waste their time arguing about whether it is happening or whether we are responsible. Rather we should be focussing on solutions

That's not what people are interested in talking about. You've got the zealous alarmists. They want to bask in their self-righteousness, preaching to the masses, attacking all non-believers. And then you've got the folks who make sport of those zealots. the dynamic plays out on a regular basis. Lather, rinse, repeat. There's little effort to sincerely advance the cause. It's mostly about pissing on the other guy.

* Hat tip to Ed Hartouni for high value, low snark posts.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Dec 1, 2016 - 04:08pm PT

I agree with you, Malemute, up to the point quoted above, which you do not state strongly enough. Skeptics practice science. We build our science on skepticism. Deniers and believers lacking skepticism both practice religion.

And has been asked before, what does it take to become settled science?

Should I practice skepticism that smoking causes cancer?
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Dec 1, 2016 - 04:09pm PT
People shouldn't waste their time arguing about whether it is happening or whether we are responsible. Rather we should be focussing on solutions

Rather hard to focus on solutions when the party that will soon control all three branches of government mostly denies that it is happening and/or is a problem.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Dec 1, 2016 - 04:57pm PT
what does it take to become settled science?

Religion. The scientific method doesn't allow for anything "settled." The fallacy, however, is not being skeptical. Rather, the fallacy lies in requiring "settled science" before action.

As just one example, science is not settled on predicting earthquakes, but that doesn't make it prudent to build along a known fault zone without taking the possibility that a quake could happen into account.

Similarly, you should remain skeptical about whether smoking causes cancer. It's entirely possible that something else is the cause. But I think someone who begins smoking is foolish because our best theory suggest that smoking increasing the likelihood of cancer, heart attacks, and a host of other adverse health outcomes significantly.

This may seem like semantics, but I find it important precisely because I know too many people who argue that the science isn't settled, so we need not act. Understanding the meaninglessness of "settled science" helps to avoid getting lost in trying to define what constitutes something that does not exist.

John
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 1, 2016 - 07:50pm PT
I think lung cancer and cigarette smoking is an interesting analogy... certainly cigarette smoking doesn't kill you off today, next week, next month, next year or even next decade... and it might not kill you off at all... but it might.

So it is a risk whose consequences are differed, to some extent.


the timescale is of order 20 years...

Now there isn't a step-by-step explanation of how cigarette smoking causes lung cancer, by you can see that once the rate of smoking decreased, the frequency of lung cancers did too, but later...

to me this is strong evidence for the hypothesis that associates the two. But that is me...


What are YOU will to risk?

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 1, 2016 - 09:16pm PT
actually, the statement that Jody cut-and-pasted was made in early 2014, and can be found here:
http://www.foxnews.com/science/2014/02/26/greenpeace-co-founder-no-scientific-proof-humans-are-dominant-cause-warming.html

The "September" referred to was in 2013...

Moores' statements do not contain any explanation for his views regarding anthropomorphic climate change, if someone has a link to something more substantive I'd like to see it.

Making statements is easy, backing them up is difficulty. Jody doesn't know squat about climate science, so he depends on the supposed authority of someone like Moore, where does Moore get such authority?

Certainly not through his scientific work.

For instance take the temperature anomaly from NASA:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

the sunspot numbers:
http://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/SN_y_tot_V2.0.txt

the recent CO2 concentration:
ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_annmean_mlo.txt

and the Law Dome CO2 historic concentrations:
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/lawdome.smoothed.yr20

and make this plot:


the blue line is the surface temperature anomaly by year. The year 2013 is marked with the vertical black dashed line...

the red line is the sunspot number by year, a proxy for the solar irradiance,

the green line is the measured atmospheric CO2 concentration, and the purple line is the Law Dome ice core CO2 concentrations...


you can see that the temperature is not flat or falling after 2013, as the quote from Moore predicted...

also, you can see the solar sunspot activity peaked around 1960 and has been falling ever since... but the temperature anomaly is increasing through that period... so it is not the Sun causing the warming...

the increased CO2 concentration tracks nicely with the increased temperature anomaly, and though it is not so simple, it certainly is suggestive, and a deeper analysis shows the surface temperature increases are due to the increased CO2, and that the increased CO2 is due to humans.


rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 1, 2016 - 09:37pm PT
I expect, and can't wait, for Ed's consistent list of government alphabet soup agencies to be defunded out of the climate scam business. Won't it be great when these sources are discredited and their frauds so well documented that if Ed, say in another 4 years time, dared to once again cite these fraudulent agencies discredited criminal works that he would be promptly laughed off the forum.

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 1, 2016 - 09:45pm PT
rick sumner, your prognostications have not been very accurate in the past.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 1, 2016 - 09:48pm PT
Gonna get cold by 2019 Ed. That's my sole prediction. My above post is just hope for change, or rather, belief the government climate science scam will be severely short changed.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Shetville , North of Los Angeles
Dec 1, 2016 - 10:07pm PT
Maybe Trump will jail all of the scamming climate change heretics and put this hoax to sleep...
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Dec 2, 2016 - 06:04am PT
Patrick Moore was not a co founder of Greenpeace, just an early member. He lies about that.
He has not authored a single science paper in a refereed journal.
He is a fraud and does not have a clue about data analysis.
Anyone with any knowledge of science, methods, and data analysis can shred his arguments with a minimum of effort

Here is a talk at Moses Znaimer's Ideas City
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFHX526NPbE
PoopyPants

climber
Up in the mountains
Dec 2, 2016 - 09:04am PT
As far as solutions, from a soil science perspective I don't understand why not sequester carbon in the soil on a large scale? There are three major carbon sinks in the ocean, atmosphere and soil. We took the carbon out of the soil in the first place so why not put it back? Plants turn atmospheric carbon to biomass that can then be turned to biochar or otherwise locked up.

Our current monocultured agricultural system has depleted our soil to the point where they are dead and can only grow a crop with the addition of heavy NPK fertilizers. Farmers are in debt for their machinery, chemicals and seed with no control over their own soil.
The other option is moving to a regenerative system that is based on a perrenial polycuture that actually builds soil. Yes, there is some lost in total productivity but when considering how inherently unsustainable a chemical monoculture is it makes a lot of sense to me, especially considering we can do this and restore previously degraded land. Also, we are finding that good livestock management (holistic / mob grazing) is actually very beneficial to buidling soil so we may not all have to be vegans after all because that would suck.

Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Dec 2, 2016 - 11:15am PT
"How come this is frequently treated as a political topic?
It is not
It is a scientific topic
The political part is what we will do in response.
People shouldn't waste their time arguing about whether it is happening or whether we are responsible. Rather we should be focusing on solutions"

I agree with talking more about solutions.
Of course that has been done many times on these threads,
and the answer in the USA is mostly just a dead end,
because:

1) the deniers often have the floor and keep interjecting nonsense in both this forum and in USA government.

2) We want every other country to act as fast as us on decreasing emissions. That is simply not going to happen in places like India where the average income is so low and just living is quite harsh. We were leaders in moving to large fossil fuel emissions and we would need to be leaders in moving off them. At this point most of Europe is far ahead of us in lower GHG emissions. In fact some are discussing putting tariffs on goods from the USA (not the other way around.) China is taking the lead in solar.
The way I see policy evolving is through lots of small steps, similar to nuclear arms reductions among the major war powers. Leading richer countries would start taking more steps such as gradually increasing carbon taxes (revenue neutral), and then helping poorer countries to follow.
That way none suffer large unilateral costs. This is basically what the climate talks have proposed for decades now. Trade restrictions can be used to enforce efforts. The USA has already mostly wasted decades of precious time.

Some reasons revenue neutral carbon taxes are so great:
Easy to impose, hard to game loopholes.
Easy to gradually increase.
Easy to offset revenue through reductions in other taxes such as income or Social Security, or sales, or ...
Easy to calculate and compare between countries.
No pick and choosing of solutions, instead just providing incentive to find alternatives.

3. We are selfish and like our wasteful habits and are too lazy to consider alternatives.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Dec 2, 2016 - 12:41pm PT
All this "save the planet" talk is presumptuous, imo.

Global warming will simply take the planet back to the state it has enjoyed for most of its history. Seas will rise, forests will grow where now there are sheets of ice, etc. We're actually coming out of an ice age, returning to something more "normal" from a geological perspective.

Maybe something like dinosaurs can evolve again. The possibilities are endless and wonderful. "Life finds a way."

"Save the planet" REALLY means, "'Save' a narrow, human-centric perspective of what's 'nice' for some subset of us." And subset is the motive word! Some are going to be displaced as some deserts grow. But much more of the world will become habitable and arable than exists at present.

"Save the planet" presumes that the limited regions of "badness" are generalizable to the whole planet, when, actually, if history is any guide, MOST of the planet will do much better warmer.

And if humans went extinct, that would be the best way to truly "save the planet."
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Dec 2, 2016 - 12:46pm PT
anybody missing a goebels stand in?
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Dec 2, 2016 - 08:42pm PT
Similarly, you should remain skeptical about whether smoking causes cancer. It's entirely possible that something else is the cause. But I think someone who begins smoking is foolish because our best theory suggest that smoking increasing the likelihood of cancer, heart attacks, and a host of other adverse health outcomes significantly.


So if I may be a little tongue-in-cheek.

Really?

REALLY???

If your kid (or grandkid) came to you and asked whether smoking causes cancer, your response would be:

Absolutely. Smoking causes cancer and it is very dangerous to your health.

or

You should remain skeptical about whether smoking causes cancer. It's entirely possible that something else is the cause. Now I think it would be foolish to begin smoking because our best theory suggests that smoking increasing the likelihood of cancer, but we really just can't be sure. All those New England Journal of Medicine published studies and other peer reviewed papers, might actually all be full of sh#t. So honey, why don't you sift through all the evidence and decide if smoking is right for you.

And I should remain skeptical about whether having bacon cheeseburgers, fries, and sodas and other similar fast food for lunch and dinner everyday is bad for my health. My being 40 pounds overweight might really be because I have fat ancestors not to mention fat co-workers. According to the beverage industry, there is no proof that sugary drinks have any ill effects on your health.

And the city of Flint missed a beat. Sure, parents are upset to hear that peer reviewed science papers state that even low levels of lead exposure can cause permanent, neurological damage. What the hell have those scientist ever PROVED! REMAIN SKEPTICAL! Maybe that lead doesn't do anything.

So returning to a more wonkish seriousness.

Come on, man. Not even scientist can successfully think this way across the board. This is like economist who have this fantasy that all consumers all these perfect rational creatures carefully weighing up every economic transaction to maximize their profit. Nobody, not even economists, make all of their purchases this way.

Long after most people rationally accepted that smoking was bad for you, the tobacco industry worked hard to sow doubt. Not proof. Just a little nagging doubt. So when your buddy lights up and offers you a cigarette and you say those things cause cancer. He can just brush it off with a nervous laugh and say those doctors all full of sh#t.

Doubt makes it harder to face up to the really tough task of quitting smoking and easier to just mentally push it away.

It doesn't do us any good to win the battle of Hillary. We also have to win the battle of Trump.

Saying skepticism is warranted is just a comfortable euphemism for saying I don't want to fully commit to the consequences of dealing with reality.
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Dec 2, 2016 - 09:13pm PT
[Click to View YouTube Video]
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Dec 2, 2016 - 09:22pm PT
Saying skepticism is warranted is just a comfortable euphemism for saying I don't want to fully commit to the consequences of dealing with reality.

No. Saying skepticism is warranted is following the scientific method. We always allow for the possibility that later discoveries could change our theory.

Put another way, our current understanding of reality may change. That matters because when we dogmatically insist that we know all about reality, we make it easy for someone to blow a hole in our argument as soon as we learn something new. Why not admit that this is the best we know now, and we should act based on what we know?

As many have stated, this issue remains humanity's actions. Whether we understand all, most, some or none of the ramifications of our interactions with the universe doesn't change the fact that those interactions have consequences. Arguing over certainty distracts from the need to assess the consequences of our actions and modify them in account of that assessment. Getting hung up on skepticism distracts from the need to deal with our actions.

John
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Dec 3, 2016 - 04:45pm PT
Arguing over certainty distracts from the need to assess the consequences of our actions and modify them in account of that assessment.

Which is why, as I said just above, I welcome global warming!

To the extent that it even makes ANY sense to talk in terms of "good" or "bad" in an evolutionary/geological context, global warming is surely a good.
rbord

Boulder climber
atlanta
Dec 3, 2016 - 04:48pm PT
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/dec/03/climate-change-scientists-house-panel-global-temperatures-misleading

The House Committee on science, space and technology are promoting a misleading fake-news Breitbart article expressing skepticism that the earth is warming.

Breitbart as the scientific reference that the Republican house committee on science is now using!

"If the House science committee wants to understand science they should talk to climate scientists." Yea, well, not if Breitbart is telling them what they want to hear.

"Where did you get your PHD?" Bernie Sanders asked. "Trump University?" Sure, why not, its a University like Harvard is right, in the same way Breitbart are climate scientists.

Thanks Trumpistas! We're f*#ked.
Mighty Hiker

climber
Outside the Asylum
Dec 3, 2016 - 05:10pm PT
Global warming will simply take the planet back to the state it has enjoyed for most of its history. Seas will rise, forests will grow where now there are sheets of ice, etc. We're actually coming out of an ice age, returning to something more "normal" from a geological perspective.

Most people here like ice. Go away, ice-hater.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Dec 3, 2016 - 05:23pm PT
Go away, ice-hater.

LOL

No, no, we won't go.

Actually, I'm hoping that within my lifetime Baffin Island will become a lush paradise with its towering walls poking up out of steamy forests!

Global warming can't move along fast enough for me.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Dec 3, 2016 - 05:51pm PT
The best compelling evidence is a prediction that turns out to be right.

No, actually, that's not correct. An infinite number of theories are consistent with ANY set of facts. So, NO pile of evidence can suggest even a single step toward CONFIRMING, or even "nodding toward," any particular theory.

All the scientific method can do is (at best) falsification of theories, never confirmation of theories.

And, in the context of looking for compelling evidence that a theory is incorrect (which was the context of the comment you responded to), "the best compelling evidence" would be evidence that did NOT cohere with the theory in question. Because....

See above.

Give me global warming, or give me death (apologies to Patrick Henry).
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Dec 3, 2016 - 06:13pm PT
^ useless hyperbole

Only to those who prefer to pontificate in ignorance. If you're going to "correct" others, you should at least be correct in your "correction."

You know, it's a function of intellectual honesty.

LOL

Give me global warming, or give me death!
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Dec 3, 2016 - 06:23pm PT
Madbolter...Steamy ropes...LOL...
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Dec 3, 2016 - 06:33pm PT
And he's been mad at the world ever since.

Uh, right. And you get THAT from my post? LOL

Clearly you "see" exactly what you want to see. Yeah, that's science in action.

Look, goofball, if you can't see the "refutation" of your ridiculous confirmationism, then there is no help for you.

So, yeah, just continue on in your delusional echo chamber ("correcting" others along the way, ROFL). That's just what I've observed from you perpetually.

Let's cut to the chase: You don't like me, and now I don't like you. Blah, blah, blah. The net effect remains: Science does NOT "prove," "indicate," "confirm," or in ANY other way "show" anything. It has no capacity to do that. So, there CAN be no "compelling evidence" that ANY theory is "correct."

Science can ONLY disprove theories, never confirm them. But don't take my word for it....

[Click to View YouTube Video]

Seriously. Watch it and learn something. After all, this is one of the gods of physics talking.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Dec 3, 2016 - 06:44pm PT
Madbolter...Okay...that was a cheap shot..I didn't know you were the victim of that sophmorish prank until a few posts ago...rj
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Dec 3, 2016 - 06:49pm PT
I said compelling evidence. I didn't say proof. You are twisting my words, but that's what deniers do.

1) I'm not a denier.

2) Your distinction between "compelling evidence" and "proof" is a distinction without a difference. NEITHER is provided by the scientific method.

You're more of a windbag than me. At least what I say is sustainable, which cannot be said for you. You pontificate in ignorance, "correcting" others with incorrect statements. To the extent that I pontificate ("windbag" and all), what I say is correct.

That is a distinction with a difference.

Give me global warming, or give me death!
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Dec 3, 2016 - 06:49pm PT
Madbolter...Okay...that was a cheap shot

No worries. It doesn't bother me anymore. But thanks.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Dec 3, 2016 - 07:03pm PT
You haven't said anything that is correct, because you offer no evidence, only your opinion.

You only say that because you are ignorant. Oh, and you haven't bothered to watch the explanations from one of your own gods. Educated people know that what I'm saying is not merely "my opinion."
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Dec 3, 2016 - 07:03pm PT
What successful predictions have the climate change deniers made?

Doesn't concern me. I'm not a denier.

Give me global warming!
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Dec 3, 2016 - 07:19pm PT
Sooo.... you posted a link. Sorry, but that's not a 'citation' in any relevant sense. Who is "James Wright"? What he wrote is truly "mere opinion," and, again, it is not correct.

Please, seriously, watch the video. I'll take Feynman's "opinion" over "James Wright's" any day.

The line "Some aspects of the science of AGW are known with near 100% certainty" is pure, steaming snakesh|t. Science simply cannot "know" ANYTHING at all, certainly not with ANY "certainty."

All loose-talk about "most confirmed theory" that scientists often use for the public is a lie, and they know it. Confirmationism in science has been known dead for fifty years!
F

climber
away from the ground
Dec 3, 2016 - 07:39pm PT
$hit Malemute. When you've got awesome assertions like
Science simply cannot "know" ANYTHING at all, certainly not with ANY "certainty."
coupled with a contentious personality, the privilege of being "correct", and undoubtably YUGE hands, who needs compelling evidence of anything. All one needs is the company of a mirror.

Mighty Hiker

climber
Outside the Asylum
Dec 3, 2016 - 08:09pm PT
I'm beginning to think that MB1 is one of those sad unfortunates who likes warm beer.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Dec 3, 2016 - 08:34pm PT
Keep it up, MB. Malemute is an evangelical fundamentalist warmer. The more you press, the more his zealotry is Exposed. Keep up the good work. 😆
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Dec 3, 2016 - 09:07pm PT
rbord

Boulder climber
atlanta
Dec 3, 2016 - 09:08pm PT
If you honestly believe that scientific results can not "indicate" anything, I invite you to go play in traffic to use your admirable intellectual honesty to disprove to us all that playing in traffic is dangerous. Please don't stop until you're 99.99999999% sure.

But for the rest of our sakes, please don't do it with our climate.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Dec 3, 2016 - 09:50pm PT
Let's create climate change insurance and make anyone who denies climate change pay a higher premium to cover damage caused by climate change...Draught , ski area closures , crop failure , flooding of coastal communities , forest fire...
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Dec 4, 2016 - 12:23am PT
Keep it up, MB. Malemute is an evangelical fundamentalist warmer. The more you press, the more his zealotry is Exposed. Keep up the good work.

They are incapable of learning. So, they just bandy about phrases like "logical fallacies," as if they know what that even means, and call it good, rubbing their tiny (anti-yuge) hands together in self-satisfied glee. LOL

I keep telling 'em that I don't give a rat's left buttock about the "proof" for or against global warming, because I'm not a "denier," so that aspect of the debate is irrelevant to me. But, noooo... unable to read with comprehension, they keep asking me to "prove" something that is totally irrelevant. Pretty pathetic.

Oh, and you gotta love ME having the "contentious personality," which is shorthand for: ANYBODY who disagrees with whatever point is the "standard" is just being contentious (and therefore bad, very bad).

I've come to conclude that the liberal mindset is literally INCAPABLE of even imagining that anybody else could REASONABLE disagree with them. Disagreement just means stupidity, insanity, or wickedness of some sort.

Look, Malu.... I'm not arguing with you about climate change! Try to get that point through your thick skull. I'm agreeing with you that climate change is real, that it is 100% caused by man, that it is producing dramatic global warming, and ANY other contention you wish to float. I'll drink the FULL cup of liberal Kool-aid!

But....

I think that global warming is GOOD! Bring it on! The whole Earth will be generally better for it. The small subset of people that presently live in areas that will become desert can MOVE. The MAJORITY of the planet is going to become habitable and arable, which is critical to support our ever-growing population. The whole continent of Antarctica will open to farming! Sweet!
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Dec 4, 2016 - 12:29am PT
If you honestly believe that scientific results can not "indicate" anything, I invite you to go play in traffic

That's a confused comparison, so confused that a forum thread is not the venue to straighten it out. You won't abide a WoT, so you won't abide the rigorous argument needed to straighten it out.

Sorry
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Dec 4, 2016 - 12:36am PT
Draught , ski area closures , crop failure , flooding of coastal communities , forest fire

ROLF

Okay, let's take it one by one....

Drought -- Nope. The warmer the air is, the more water vapor it can hold, the more rainfall occurs, etc. Look across known geological time, and what you see without exception is that periods of higher temps were also periods with lush forests and much more of the planet habitable.

Ski area closures -- REALLY? That's worthy of mention as a global catastrophe? ROFL

Crop failure -- In some isolated areas, sure. But globally, it's a yuge benefit! MUCH more of the Earth will be arable than presently. Remember, we're not fully recovered from the last ice age. Let's get more surface area opened up to growth!

Flooding of coastal communities -- Okay, so what? As I've said, a subset of people won't like it. But that's IRRELEVANT from a planetary perspective! Worse than irrelevant, it magnifies the PREFERENCES of a subset of HUMANS over what's best for the planet AND the majority of humans.

Forest fire -- Nope. See above. The Earth will get wetter in general, with fewer forest fires. Is there a major forest fire problem in the Amazon rain forest? Nope. So, spread that climate around a LOT, and it's a good thing.

Don't think in narrow, preference terms. Think globally and in geological terms. If you want to "save the planet," global warming is a yuge contributor to that very thing!
F

climber
away from the ground
Dec 4, 2016 - 09:47am PT
Some real gems there, Mudbolter.
I especially like this one.

I think that global warming is GOOD! Bring it on! The whole Earth will be generally better for it. The small subset of people that presently live in areas that will become desert can MOVE. The MAJORITY of the planet is going to become habitable and arable, which is critical to support our ever-growing population. The whole continent of Antarctica will open to farming! Sweet!

rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Dec 4, 2016 - 10:37am PT
Angry Bolter... So Cal. exist thanks to Sierra and Coloradan snows...No snow , no wa, wa for So cal......Not a bad thing IMHO...Snow levels keep rising leaving less wa, wa for So Cal... water rationing is the norm in so cal which means there are no lush tropical forests...These circumstances were predicted by scientist decades ago...
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Dec 4, 2016 - 10:44am PT
Watch it, RJ, talk more sh!t and I'll send my homies up there to drain Mammoth Creek!
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Dec 4, 2016 - 10:48am PT
Reilly...I'm posting from the res...Come and get me...
Bushman

climber
The state of quantum flux
Dec 4, 2016 - 10:54am PT
Venus has a hellish atmosphere, consisting mainly of carbon dioxide with clouds of sulfuric acid, and scientists have only detected trace amounts of water in the atmosphere. The atmosphere is heavier than that of any other planet, leading to a surface pressure 90 times that of Earth.

At the present rate of climate change, this is what Earth will be like in a few million years. It will be uninhabitable in only about three hundred years. Think about it, study it. Denying it doesn't change it.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Dec 4, 2016 - 10:57am PT
Izzat yer new job - reservoir dawg?
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Dec 4, 2016 - 11:07am PT
MB1,
Denying the major effects of climate change is another form of denial.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php
see arguments 8, 18, 24, 34, 107, 178 etc.

"I'll drink the FULL cup of liberal Kool-aid!"

it's not political, it's science.

But.... I think that global warming is GOOD! Bring it on! The whole Earth will be generally better for it. The small subset of people that presently live in areas that will become desert can MOVE. The MAJORITY of the planet is going to become habitable and arable, which is critical to support our ever-growing population. The whole continent of Antarctica will open to farming! Sweet!
Drought -- Nope. The warmer the air is, the more water vapor it can hold, the more rainfall occurs, etc.
The Earth will get wetter in general.
Crop failure -- In some isolated areas, sure. But globally, it's a yuge benefit! MUCH more of the Earth will be arable than presently."
"Flooding of coastal communities -- Okay, so what? As I've said, a subset of people won't like it. But that's IRRELEVANT from a planetary perspective! Worse than irrelevant, it magnifies the PREFERENCES of a subset of HUMANS over what's best for the planet AND the majority of humans."

You are making up facts. Destroying huge numbers of species is not a positive for the planet. Extreme weather events are not a positive. Climate change will benefit only a small minority of people. These changes have already been studied. Try looking it up sometime instead of making up your own guesses.

Changes will depend on the specific region. Most of the American west is predicted to be dryer, even if total precip doesn't change much. Less precip will be snow, snowpack will be lower and melt sooner, so we lose much of our biggest and best reservoir of water. More of the water will evaporate and run off to the ocean. So there will be less usable water. The same is true for billions of people who use runoff from the Himalaya. Trees and plants migrate much slower than the pace of climate change.

Some areas might benefit. Others will no longer support the large numbers of people who live there. This is a taking, a foisting of unwanted changes on others. What might it cost to rebuild 5-10% of the entire infrastructure on Earth? $100 trillion?

Are you personally going to pay to move and build infrastructure for hundreds of millions of people to Siberia and Canada? (who don't want these refugees?.
Climate change is about people foisting their selfish fossil fuel use on others who can't afford to adapt. And it will affect half of the world population. Maybe through war. Are you personally prepared to adopt and foster 10 people from Bangladesh whose land is now underwater?

http://ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf
chart 9 predicts lower crop yields.

Another interesting graph in those assessments
http://ipcc.ch/report/graphics/index.php?t=Assessment Reports&r=AR5 - WG3&f=SPM
chart 4 shows nearly equal GHG contributions to increased population and to increased GDP per capita, with some offset due to less intense energy use per GDP. But also quite a shift with time towards increased GDP.


Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Dec 4, 2016 - 11:41am PT
Let's cut to the chase......The net effect remains: Science does NOT "prove," "indicate," "confirm," or in ANY other way "show" anything. It has no capacity to do that. So, there CAN be no "compelling evidence" that ANY theory is "correct." Science can ONLY disprove theories, never confirm them. But don't take my word for it.... Seriously. Watch it and learn something. After all, this is one of the gods of physics talking.

It's funny when someone posts a quote or video that completely disproves the very point they are attempting to make. As Feynman says in the video posted by MB1, science can indicate when something is true, more likely than not--and that disproving accepted theory requires substituting something new that explains all that is observable better than the currently accepted theory.

Curt
jogill

climber
Colorado
Dec 4, 2016 - 12:46pm PT
Once an aura of Chicken Little has been established, no matter how solid the evidence it's hard to change public percerception.

Time to sell that lot in southern Florida.
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Dec 4, 2016 - 04:04pm PT
"
Ski area closures -- REALLY? That's worthy of mention as a global catastrophe? ROFL"

FYI, 2011 was the highest snowpack in Colorado in the last 50 years.

6 out of the last 8 years have been well above average here.

Keep that global warming coming.
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Dec 4, 2016 - 04:25pm PT
The most eccentric thing about the GW crowd is, they actually think they are going to live long enough to witness the doom and gloom they forecast.

Denying the truth is one thing, refuting an unproven theory of the effects of global warming quite another.
StahlBro

Trad climber
San Diego, CA
Dec 4, 2016 - 06:10pm PT
7 billion people going to 9 in the next 20 years. All wanting the same lifestyle. No problem.

Stupid homo sapien sapien's...
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Dec 4, 2016 - 06:42pm PT
It will be figured out
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Dec 4, 2016 - 07:23pm PT
Anti Fresno Dave... ROFL...Sure you are and Americans losing jobs is f*#king hilarious....I like your sense of humor....
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 4, 2016 - 10:15pm PT
madbolter1 seems to have decided on being provocative, and in a bit of a disingenuous way.

Part of doing science is testing theories and hypotheses, which can be shown to be false... and while not proven to be true, their power is in their predictive ability. And when theories weave together a large number of observations and measurements into that predictive framework those predictions can be used as a basis for planning.

In part, the failure of the climate science to explain the rising 20th century temperature and the observed changes in climate resulted in the current climate model, a model that provides the best scientific explanation of that temperature rise, human activities which have released in to the atmosphere large enough quantities of CO2 to create that temperature rise.

While not "proving" this is the case, one cannot simply dismiss it as a "mere theory," for it to be false many other components of the theory would also have to be false, and that is unlikely at this point.


Now whether or not climate change, in particular global warming is "good or bad" we'd have to define that... but if you judge on the basis of human societies, global warming and climate change, will be very disruptive.

Displacing the populations living on the costs in a relatively short timescale cannot be belittled by stating "that subset of people will just move to some better place." Certainly people moving from one place on the globe to another has become a huge political issue recently, and climate change will make it worse. That is not to mention the places in the arctic which have already been disrupted, villages having to move due to melting permafrost, or rising oceans.

The productivity of crops does not benefit from increased atmospheric CO2 unless other factors also exist, in particular, water, nutrients, and moderate temperatures. Increased temperatures result in reduced crop productivity among two of the four major crops (the difference being the different photosynthesis used by the plants). With the prospects of climate change, and the rising global temperatures, many studies have been conducted on plant productivity, ones that I have seen show a reduced productivity at a time of still increasing populations and a reduction in the ability to maintain the "green revolution" increases.

As for increased rainfall, the climate models predict that currently arid regions will get more so, and regions with rainfall will also get more, it is not something that gets "spread around." Once again, these changes are being studied at a more detailed scientific level in an attempt to understand what the changes would be.

Certainly madbolter1 must have citations in the scientific literature supporting his enthusiasm for rising global temperature.
F

climber
away from the ground
Dec 4, 2016 - 10:50pm PT
So Ed, I'm kind of like the Mudbolter, not real good with sciency stuff. Can you clarify something for me?
Does this mean we won't be smoking a tasty sativa harvested from the fields of the soon to be agrarian paradise in Antarctica after Trump proves that global warming is a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese?
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Dec 5, 2016 - 06:47am PT
The US Defence establishment has identified climate change as one of the biggest problems facing our future.
Increased conflict brought upon by climate change (Syria is a good example because the war started after 3 years of drought where many of its farmers were wiped out).
The need to rebuild/relocate naval facilities due to sea level rise.
This is hardly a leftish environmental organization.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 5, 2016 - 08:29am PT
pud wrote: "...refuting an unproven theory of the effects of global warming quite another."

I was unaware that pud or anyone else has provide a refutation of the current climate science conclusion that human activity is the cause of the 20th century (and now into the 21st century) global warming.

Perhaps a concise statement could be made by those who think this refutation has happened.

Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Dec 5, 2016 - 01:08pm PT
Here is a fascinating paper that gets at the roots of the acceptance of the scientific consensus on climate change, which was linked in an article at the Atlantic monthly.

"When Yale law professor Dan Kahan surveyed 1,540 adults about climate change, he found that scientific literacy did not correlate with perceiving climate change as a greater risk."
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1871503&download=yes

Figure 2 depicts the general finding, which is that even smart people rely mostly on their gut and their peers to form their opinions.

Note however, the scale of "scientific" literacy is a very basic knowledge test that does not approach the level of expert scientist as indicated by the 97% expert consensus.

A few quotes:

[often it is assumed] "that that members of the public are divided about climate change science because they have limited scientific knowledge and limited capacity to reason about evidence in a scientific manner. Our data, however, show that as individuals become more science literate and more proficient in the mode of reasoning featured in scientific inquiry, they don’t reliably form beliefs more in line with scientific consensus. Instead, they form beliefs that are even more reliably correlated with those of the particular cultural group to which they belong."

[because the effects of climate change are a seemingly distant global issue]
"Nor is it plausible for the typical member of the public to imagine that anything she, as an individual, does - as a producer of carbon emissions, say, or as a voter in democratic elections — will by itself aggravate or reduce the dangers that climate change might pose. She is just not consequential enough one way or the other to matter.

"At the same time, the beliefs that the typical member of the public forms about climate change will likely have an impact on how she gets along with people she interacts with in her daily life. A Hierarchical Individualist in Oklahoma City who proclaims that he thinks that climate change is a serious and real risk might well be shunned by his coworkers at a local oil refinery; the same might be true for an Egalitarian Communitarian English professor in New York City who reveals to colleagues that she thinks that “scientific consensus” on climate change is a “hoax.” They can both misrepresent their positions, of course, but only at the cost of having to endure the anxiety of living a lie, not to mention the risk that they’ll slip up and reveal their true convictions. Given how much they depend on others for support — material and emotional — and how little impact their beliefs have on what society does to protect the physical environment, they are better off when they form perceptions of climate change risk that minimize this danger of community estrangement.

In such circumstances, that is exactly what is likely to happen. A long-standing body of work in social psychology suggests that individuals are motivated to fit their beliefs to those of people with whom they are intimately connected. Both to avoid dissonance and to secure their standing within such groups, they predictably seek out and credit information supportive of “self-defining … values and attitudes” "

"As ordinary people learn more science and become more proficient in modes of reasoning characteristic of scientific inquiry, they do not reliably converge on assessments of climate change risks supported by scientific evidence. Instead they more form beliefs that are even more reliably characteristic of persons who hold their particular cultural worldviews."


Another related link:
Interesting the four societies listed that have now decided to mostly stay silent on climate change are all involved in extracting fossil fuels. They used to declare skepticism, but received too many dissenting opinions, so decided it would cause the least arguments to stay out of fields (climatology) in which they have no expertise.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Dec 6, 2016 - 04:21pm PT
I, for one, am grateful to you for continuing to post relevant links, Malemute. This thread is a great resource. By the way, the link that Ed posted upthread of the climate model simulation over a year's time is fantastic. I've run through it a number of times.

The effects of growing versus dormant plant-life as well as the point sources emanating from the industrial powerhouses are clear. Obviously these are just models, but they fold in all of the available understanding of the processes with a detailed dataset into a picture that, through time, becomes a video. I'd love to be a climate modeler!
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Dec 6, 2016 - 04:21pm PT
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GujLcfdovE8

97% is the accurate number for those that acknowledge that man has some contributing factor.
of course man is a factor.... but many, many, included in the 97% are dissenters to the theory that man causes a large portion, of climatic change.

but,
the satellite data over the last 18 years, show no warming, even among alarmists it has become known as the "PAUSE"

and the North American record, for temperature, was set, in 1913

If the weathercaster's model, does not match the weather, is the weather wrong, or the model?

and you are correct Mute! it has become your religion, the left no longer actually looks at the science.

even the ecological disaster of 70,000 penguins perishing because of too much ice, was not reported

because it did not fit the narrative.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Dec 6, 2016 - 04:36pm PT
Actually 97% consensus value is now an Underestimate.
If you actually looked at the link I already posted,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change#Surveys_of_scientists_and_scientific_literature

A 2010 paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States (PNAS) reviewed publication and citation data for 1,372 climate researchers and drew the following two conclusions:

(i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support the tenets of ACC (Anthropogenic Climate Change) outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.[116]

A 2013 paper in Environmental Research Letters reviewed 11,944 abstracts of scientific papers matching "global warming" or "global climate change". They found 4,014 which discussed the cause of recent global warming, and of these "97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming".[120]

James L. Powell, a former member of the National Science Board and current executive director of the National Physical Science Consortium, analyzed published research on global warming and climate change between 1991 and 2012 and found that of the 13,950 articles in peer-reviewed journals, only 24 rejected anthropogenic global warming.[129] A follow-up analysis looking at 2,258 peer-reviewed climate articles with 9,136 authors published between November 2012 and December 2013 revealed that only one of the 9,136 authors rejected anthropogenic global warming.[130] His 2015 paper on the topic, covering 24,210 articles published by 69,406 authors during 2013 and 2014 found only five articles by four authors rejecting anthropogenic global warming. Over 99.99% of climate scientists did not reject AGW in their peer-reviewed research.[122]
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Dec 6, 2016 - 04:38pm PT
EdBannister, do you have a really high IQ? High enough that you think that you are somehow seeing something that these tens or hundreds of thousands of climate scientists are not seeing? Do you really think that that is how science works? That everybody falls into line? All of those thousands of scientists from countries all over the world? They don't want to upset "the narrative"?

I'll bet that somewhere around 3 percent of the general population believes that the earth is flat.
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Dec 6, 2016 - 04:43pm PT
hundreds of thousands of climate scientists

thats funny, there are not that many climatologists. perfectly consistent.


but you are correct about the fact that there is a percentage that will believe whatever they are incented to.


Stanford got 250 million in grant money to research global warming, everyone there has an obligation to not screw it up for the rest, or would you disagree with that?

70,000 years ago Yosemite Valley was full of ice.
the valley is flat on the bottom because 4 recessional moraines dammed the river and it silted in.
A recessional moraine is a result of a period of warming, followed by a period of stability.
it got warmer, and still is because we are in the Holocene interglacial. Can you tell me when the Holocene will be over? or what the percentage of warming is caused by man, and what would have happened anyway? Of course you cannot, there is no way to measure it, and anyone that proports to know, is fishing for a grant or a book deal..
Al Gore? how much does he affect his life by what he has led you to believe? He flies in a private jet!

in 1972 is was scientific statistical and unavoidable inevitability that the great populations of the earth would die of starvation.. Dr. Paul Erlich led the crusade for dollars and fame with "Zero Population growth" he made a lot of money, but his theory was completely wrong.. but at the time, many maintained you were stupid not to accept the inevitable.

i think the current alarmism is in the same category.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Dec 6, 2016 - 05:12pm PT
Ed B,
You might ask yourself,
since the best funded people who write about climate are the ALEC and Koch funded deniers,
Why can't they come up with anything that is not easily refuted silliness?

In fact ALEC and Koch would gladly pay billions of dollars if someone could refute climate change science. But it can't be done.
So instead they invest their money in faux news shlepticism.

Last ice age: Irrelevant

Al Gore: Irrelevant

Population vs. Food 1972 prediction: Irrelevant.
A prediction by one man is not the kind of consensus we have on climate. Relevant only in that population and GNP growth does cause even more climate change until we start decreasing GHG gases.
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Dec 6, 2016 - 05:25pm PT
a majority of scientists agreed on the food and overpopulation issue... the scientific majority has been wrong more than once.. bird flu, overpopulation, heterosexual aids,

and to say the last ice age is irrelevant means we cannot reason with one another...

to deny that Canada was covered with ice, or that it got warmer, is to deny geologic facts.

it is warmer than it was, with or without man. Yosemite Valley is a witness, of what you deny, with or without your personal attacks on me.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Dec 6, 2016 - 05:42pm PT
I had this couple of paragraphs written. I whittled them down to - Sigh!
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Dec 6, 2016 - 05:57pm PT
That is what happens when you try to reason with someone who has a poor grip on science or the belief of.



Edit;Been there .

Edit #2;And also why this or any other thread on CC is a bad idea ,

YOU ARE GIVING EQUAL TIME TO DENIERS.
rbord

Boulder climber
atlanta
Dec 6, 2016 - 06:29pm PT
Ok, so the rest of it all - honest disagreement among reasonable people. Science, anti-science, approver, denier ... just small minds processing big ideas, with a moral equivalence of beliefs on either side of the equation.

But Yosemite the result of global warming??!!! Everyone knows God made Yosemite! :-)
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Dec 6, 2016 - 07:17pm PT
pud wrote: "...refuting an unproven theory of the effects of global warming quite another."

I was unaware that pud or anyone else has provide a refutation of the current climate science conclusion that human activity is the cause of the 20th century (and now into the 21st century) global warming.

Perhaps a concise statement could be made by those who think this refutation has happened.

Ed, read what I posted again.

The theory in question is not whether or not humans are responsible for an impact on climate, rather the gloom and doom forecasts of all the chicken littles.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Dec 6, 2016 - 07:46pm PT
EdB,
irrelevant does not mean deny.
Apparently your understanding of English is as good as your scientific ability.

You'll be happy to know Al Gore is back in the news.
http://www.npr.org/2016/12/05/504463711/al-gore-meets-with-donald-and-ivanka-trump-in-search-for-common-ground?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=202805
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Dec 6, 2016 - 07:49pm PT
Splatter,
that is how you correctly spell it by the way...
The Ironic part is while writing here, i have taken time away from editing a book, which i am paid well for by a repeat customer.

hmmmm
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Dec 6, 2016 - 08:13pm PT
Splater = Splat later (not now)

EdB, before to jumping to more unfounded assumptions, in the future you may want to ask why it "appears" to be misspelled.
It's a Proper name that I created to make it stand out from the common word, and in fact it basically means "don't splatter".
I'm sure many others didn't get it either, but you are the first one to outright tell me how I "should" have spelled it, as if that would help your case that climate change is a hoax.
If you had read many of my posts, you might have noticed, as such an amazing editor, that misspelling such a simple word would seem incongruent.

any more silly irrelevancies?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 6, 2016 - 08:17pm PT
I think EdBannister maybe got some of his "facts" wrong...

Stanford got 250 million in grant money to research global warming, everyone there has an obligation to not screw it up for the rest, or would you disagree with that?

Stanford recently received $12M to study a range of environmental issues:
http://news.stanford.edu/2016/07/13/stanford-grant-programs-offer-environmental-solutions/

the GAO reported out on total USG funding for climate change:
http://www.gao.gov/key_issues/climate_change_funding_management/issue_summary

The estimated total number of climate scientists in the world is of order 7,000 give or take a 1,000 and that doesn't include graduate students, who would be authors on papers, also, as well as other scientists who are not trained as climate scientists but contribute to the papers (e.g. data analysis, statistical analysis, instrumentation, etc).

As for Ehrlich's predictions
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_R._Ehrlich

many didn't happen, not sure that that is an example of why scientific predictions should not be used to assess future risk. But certainly, the number of people in the world have greatly increased in my and EdBannister's lifetimes, in 1955 there were 2.8 billion people total, now, 2015, about 7.3 billion a factor of 2.6. In North America it went from 187 million to 358 million a factor of 2. Had the annual growth rate not maxed out around 1970, and stayed flat at 2%/year the world population would be 9.6 billion people, had that annual growth continued to increase with the trend from 1950 to 1970, the world population would be 13.1 billion people.

What is the maximum human population that the Earth can support?

As someone suggested, Ehrlich could be credited as alerting people to the problem of population growth, and that changed as a result.

However, certainly human activities have greatly expanded in the 20th century, with the increasing population, and that has had an effect on the climate.

Ehrlich had many critics, and didn't get everything right... but the basic question, of the carrying capacity of the Earth, is an important one... increasing the CO2 in the atmosphere is one such effect.



Watching YouTube videos, of dubious origins, is not a way to learn about climate change. The information is available from a huge number of sources and at varying levels of depth. Start learning about it from the scientists who have been doing it... and criticize it based on science, not on your opinion or worse, the opinion of others.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 6, 2016 - 08:20pm PT
The theory in question is not whether or not humans are responsible for an impact on climate, rather the gloom and doom forecasts of all the chicken littles.

how would you address the risk posed by the theory prediction, that is not in question, that continuing to increase CO2 in the atmosphere will continue to warm the atmosphere, and that warming could cause great disruption?

the theory is our best way of predicting the future, and the various scenarios are not very optimistic about people to continuing the way of life they have been leading.
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Dec 6, 2016 - 08:44pm PT
ed Hartouni, reread who said hundreds of thousands of climate scientists, it was not my error.

Stanford does have 250 million in grants over the next ten years, and has received the first 100 million.

The growth in population happened, what did not happen was the predicted mass on mass starvation, we, in 1972, were all told we were going to die of starvation by 2015.. no way to feed all those people.
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Dec 6, 2016 - 08:54pm PT
yes SPLATER

one more...
Ed Hartouni takes responsibility for what he says by using his name.. I respect that, he is a good man... we think differently but he is a good human. and, Ed uses issues, and data, also a great way to illustrate your point.


Mr. Hartouni also does not bring up iQ... or have the need to..


i get you have no respect for me, so maybe take a lesson from the other Ed.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 6, 2016 - 09:45pm PT
Yeah, Ed is a great guy and occaisionally truthful too. Like when he stated " the anthropogenic signal is rather feeble compared to the range of natural climate variability".
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Dec 6, 2016 - 09:56pm PT
EdB
I have to ask what you have learned in the last 7 years since you made the same spurious denier arguments.
http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=970221&msg=1060098#msg1060098

Even if you had such doubts 7 years ago, it is sad if you can't notice the continuing clear scientific evidence since then.

Ed H has been making his clear, patient, and calm case for a decade now; has it made any difference? The deniers and trolls like RickS have stopped most progress in our society. Climate change is going to have large negative impacts and it can be difficult to respect those who want to let that happen.

What part of this chart don't you get?
it's partly out of date but the trends have continued. Keep hitting the down arrow to advance the view.
http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/

another
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/11/record-heat-despite-a-cold-sun/
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 6, 2016 - 10:23pm PT
Ed H has been making his clear, patient, and calm case for a decade now; has it made any difference? The deniers and trolls like RickS have stopped most progress in our society. Climate change is going to have large negative impacts and it can be difficult to respect those who want to let that happen.

I have tried to bring the science case to the discussion, and I think that has made a difference, but it isn't just me, many scientists have patiently brought the case, and the undeniable evidence of a very different climate then one we grew up with is all around to see.

Right now many people who didn't previously accept the scientific consensus do, and the discussion turns to what, if anything should be done about it. Since this action needs to be global the discussion includes everyone. It's very possible that people decide to just do nothing, but I think that isn't going to happen, and I don't think that any country can go their own course. The atmosphere is everywhere.

There won't be any silver bullet, no single technology solution, no unexpected natural fix, no supernatural intervention. But whatever the decision is, and whenever it is made, it will be one made by the entire global community. The issues are complex and no single group of people of whatever label has the entire answer.

Doing nothing is not an option as the changes that are predicted by our best scientific models have the temperatures rising into a range for which our current world is not adapted to, and so quickly that it is difficult to know if it can adapt, it's all uncharted territory in Earth history.

The assessment of risk based on our best science spans a huge range from none to total calamity, and is somewhere in between, but not entirely knowable. It would seem prudent, that knowing the cause of the change we wouldn't do something about it, shading our response, perhaps, towards avoiding the worst outcomes, and adapting the policy as we see the climate's response.

Those changes will take a very long time to happen.

Rick likes to use that quote, but put in the context of the larger discussion it was extracted from, the signal of human activity in the 20th century didn't become overwhelming until the 1970's, but it is certainly more than overwhelming now. It isn't something the fluctuates, but builds up over time. And it won't quickly disappear.

EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Dec 6, 2016 - 11:15pm PT
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LkMweOVOOI
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 7, 2016 - 12:25am PT
"Watching YouTube videos, of dubious origins, is not a way to learn about climate change. The information is available from a huge number of sources and at varying levels of depth. Start learning about it from the scientists who have been doing it... and criticize it based on science, not on your opinion or worse, the opinion of others."

Easterbrook provided a prediction in 2008 at this webpage:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/global-cooling-is-here/10783

I've overplotted this with the actual measurements here:
the blue line is the 5 year mean from the latest NASA temperature index:
http://climate.nasa.gov/system/internal_resources/details/original/647_Global_Temperature_Data_File.txt

which agrees with the red line taken from Fig. 5 of Easterbrook's paper (Easterbrook didn't say where or what the data was he plotted).

[The disagreement before 1940 has to do with an adjustment in the ocean temperatures that has been made since that paper.]

The green and purple lines are Easterbrook's predictions for two different scenarios. Neither seem to be tracking the actual anomaly in blue.

It would seem his scenarios are incorrect.

Gnome Ofthe Diabase

climber
Out Of Bed
Dec 7, 2016 - 04:10am PT
Wait
What, you all on topic? Good
Take a rest !


I'm sure I drift and so do so with the little free will I've left





To The Brace along the edge of a stair**
People Are Dying of Starvation. And lack of water all around the planet
Even here, in The king dumb of tRmpu, the waters of many homes are poisoned by the systems.

Speaking of systems, the very one responsible for a balanced planet has
been corrupted.

The hard won balance that we as a country eventually faught for

Starting 75 Y'Rs ago to day when our president let our antiquated navy get attacked.....


in this never was a great nation just a facade, we have the tragedies All crowded together.
As if it were a side-show, when it is a mirror of the main act.






I've omitted all the pornography but turned up the *FANCY GARBELBASE* to way past a safe volume

*What are you all? *
*Deaf?*

Vote for an Oligarch get an Oligarchy


http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-may-open-up-arctic-drilling-2016-11

DRILL BABY DRILL !!

Trump to interview ExxonMobil CEO for secretary of state
Posted: Dec 06, 2016 3:03 PM EST
Updated: Dec 06, 2016 3:03 PM EST
By CNNMoney
NEW YORK -
The face of Big Oil could become America's top diplomat.

President-elect Donald Trump is interviewing ExxonMobil Chairman and CEO Rex Tillerson on Tuesday to consider him for the secretary of state position, according to one Trump aide.

Tillerson is considered a long shot for the most prestigious Cabinet role, but the Trump aide told CNN that the president-elect is intrigued by the oil man's view of the world.

Other leading contenders for secretary of state include Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and David Petraeus.

Tillerson would be the latest multimillionaire to join Trump's cabinet and he could prove to be a controversial pick. Not only does Tillerson run the world's most valuable oil company at a time of serious concern about climate change, but the Exxon CEO also has ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In 2011, Exxon inked a deal with Russian oil giant Rosneft to provide access to lucrative oil resources in the Arctic. The agreement could be a point of contention if Tillerson is appointed, especially since Democrats and national security experts have accused the Trump camp of cozying up to Russia.

The Russian government is Rosneft's largest shareholder, and Putin attended the Exxon signing ceremony. In 2013, Putin awarded Tillerson the country's Order of Friendship.

Under Tillerson, Exxon is also grappling with legal scrutiny.

Last year, the New York Attorney General launched an investigation into whether Exxon withheld information about the risks of climate change. Both the SEC and NY AG are also probing Exxon's accounting methods, focusing on whether the company should have lowered the value of its oil and gas resources given the crash in energy prices.

Tillerson, 64, has served as the head of the Exxon oil empire since 2006. He will reach the company's mandatory retirement age of 65 in March and is expected to retire then.

Through the end of 2015, Tillerson has made more than $240 million as CEO, according to an analysis from board and executive data provider Equilar. That total includes his base salary, bonuses, stock awards and other compensation over 10 years.

Trump has made no secret of his desire to be friendly with the oil industry. The president-elect wants to unleash the country's natural resources by rolling back drilling regulations and drilling on federal lands.

"America's incredible energy potential remains untapped," Trump said in a May speech, adding that the problem is "totally self-inflected."

Trump, who ran for president as a populist outsider who promised to "drain the swamp" in Washington, has so far nominated other ultra-wealthy people for his cabinet.

Among the richest nominees so far are billionaires Wilbur Ross for secretary of commerce and Betsy DeVos for secretary of education.

Trump's pick for deputy secretary of commerce, Todd Ricketts, is the son of a billionaire and co-owns the Chicago Cubs. His would-be Treasury secretary is former Goldman Sachs banker and Hollywood bankroller Steven Mnuchin. Chief strategist Steve Bannon also worked as a Goldman Sachs banker before serving as chairman of Breitbart News.

Whether he goes to the Trump administration or not, ExxonMobil is poised to lose Tillerson at a critical time.

Feeling the effects of low oil prices, Exxon is currently facing a long slump. Its U.S. pumping business lost $477 million last quarter for its seventh consecutive quarter in the red.

Exxon has signaled that Tillerson's heir apparent is Darren Woods. The company promoted Woods, who leads Exxon's massive network of oil refineries and fuel terminals, to the position of president a year ago.

A full cut and paste from Montana

http://www.kxlf.com/story/33943757/trump-to-interview-exxonmobil-ceo-for-secretary-of-state





Given the predictions, and the current conditions. . .
A softening of the perma-frost over the last decade
we and the Russians will Drill in the Arctic Wilderness
The Rape of The Planet , our Only Home
Will now ramp up to a blistering speed.
The way the pendulum swings, bad actors act swiftly,
sure to take as much as they can all at once.
Leave No Trace will take on a differnt meaning
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Dec 7, 2016 - 06:03am PT
You might ask yourself, since the best funded people who write about climate are the ALEC and Koch funded deniers, why can't they come up with anything that is not easily refuted silliness?

In fact ALEC and Koch would gladly pay billions of dollars if someone could refute climate change science. But it can't be done.
So instead they invest their money in faux news shlepticism.

Mmmm. Kool Aid.
Brandon-

climber
The Granite State.
Dec 7, 2016 - 08:42am PT
Right now many people who didn't previously accept the scientific consensus do, and the discussion turns to what, if anything should be done about it. Since this action needs to be global the discussion includes everyone. It's very possible that people decide to just do nothing, but I think that isn't going to happen, and I don't think that any country can go their own course. The atmosphere is everywhere.

I for one appreciate your input here.

If you had to give a general basic plan to counter AGW in the next fifty yearsfor science dumb people like myself what would it be? Broad brush strokes.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Dec 7, 2016 - 09:04am PT
Do you think China, Russia and India would agree to those measures?
Brandon-

climber
The Granite State.
Dec 7, 2016 - 09:09am PT
#theGarblebase...

What's that mean? Something mean on twitter?
fear

Ice climber
hartford, ct
Dec 7, 2016 - 10:54am PT
No... just a hashtag of love for our resident Gnome....


c wilmot

climber
Dec 7, 2016 - 11:05am PT
Ca fined water wasters- did the rich care? Carbon taxes only hurt the poor. You have to reduce the US population if you want to reduce our contribution to climate change.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Dec 7, 2016 - 12:17pm PT
1) As it stands now in the USA,
the cost of petro fuel for cars & trucks is so low that there is no significant incentive to conserve or buy an efficient vehicle.
This applies to poor as well as rich. Driving a gas hog is not a right, and there is no good reason to subsidize inefficiency for anyone.
Everyone should pay the gradually increased pollution tax (revenue neutral).
No one should be exempt.
Then use the money to reduce overall taxes such as income.
Poor people who don't drive should not subsidize poor people who do.

2) The USA is capitalist. That is not going to change just because we start attempting effective policies to reduce GHGs. Rich people consume more than poor people. That is not hypocritical in our system. What counts is the overall GHG emissions, not a quota per person. Why would we expect a billionaire to use the same amount as a minimum wage worker? Doing so would actually be the hypocritical policy in a capitalist state. Do we expect the rich to consume equal:
land, wood, restaurants, hotels, sushi, lobster, massages, entertainment, cosmetic surgery, cable tv, jewelry, clothing, gear, houses, wine, limos, furs, travel, horseriding, truffles ?
c wilmot

climber
Dec 7, 2016 - 12:35pm PT
The poor can barely afford a car let alone an efficient one. And in states like ca where they have smog tests the poor are being forced off the road altogether- or they buy a car that's pre 75 or a diesal pre 97 which are exempt (a rule passed so the rich's vintage cars are still street legal) and higher gas taxes DO hurt the poor- who are commuting farther to their workplaces. Meanwhile the rich driving teslas get free charging stations that are heavily subsidized by the taxpayer.

It's all talk about change when in reality the people polluting the most won't be affected by any carbon tax.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Dec 7, 2016 - 12:44pm PT

Doing nothing is not an option as the changes that are predicted by our best scientific models have the temperatures rising into a range for which our current world is not adapted to, and so quickly that it is difficult to know if it can adapt, it's all uncharted territory in Earth history.

If I was in the long term insurance industry (say 30+ year horizon) I would bet on the Doing Nothing option. Or rather, doing a little bit around the edges, like some solar and wind, but not enough to fundamentally change the process.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Dec 7, 2016 - 12:55pm PT
I reckon that the financialisation of the economy has more to do with the lack of climate change action, than any restraint being placed by climate change denying mutterers.


I've been saying this for years. I've been cursed, at length and repeatedly, here on the Taco, for saying it. That's turned me at times into a ClimateF*#kYouer.

Those aren't mutually exclusive. I think the deniers have had a huge, negative effect. But I do with more could have been done (and locked in) before the Great Recession, back in the good old days when much of the world population was happy with their financial position (even if some of it was just a bubble).

From an emotional perspective, I understand why shaky finances and debt make action a harder political sell.

But I disagree that it really changes the underlying economics. Every single [financial] debt is somebody else's asset. Debt and savings equal out. Worker productivity goes up year after year. Some years quicker than others. But it is, for instance, substantially higher than the 90's.

The real issue is that the 1% (and 0.1%) are capturing most of the gains combined with the fact that more and more of the population (including professional desk type jobs) face insecurity with their employment.

So I don't buy the argument that we can't afford to tackle climate change. There is plenty of money and worker productivity to do it. And many types of changes will create losers and winners but it doesn't "cost" the economy. For instance, building $30,000 electric vehicles instead of $30,000 gas guzzlers.

But on the political front, I don't have any optimism.
Alan Rubin

climber
Amherst,MA.
Dec 7, 2016 - 12:58pm PT
It increasingly appears that all the reasonable proposals discussed above will be rendered even more meaningless, as it is being reported that Trump is going to appoint Okla. AG Scott Pruitt--a major climate change denier as head of EPA--a clear case of giving the fox control of the chicken coop.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Dec 7, 2016 - 02:34pm PT
What if there were some wearable applications that automatically informed the wearer of their current carbon use -- cumulatively over a day or week or month or year? I'm thinking of how a Prius driver can make small adjustments to maximize fuel economy because the immediate feedback information is there.

Maybe the wearer could see how their carbon use compared to their neighbors or family. Public utilities have started publishing this kind of information to encourage good behavior. Nothing like feeling a little ashamed to curb your behavior. It's technology that got us here. Let's use technology to remedy it.

Edit: About the horse farts -- my other idea is beano for cows and horses.

eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Dec 7, 2016 - 02:49pm PT
DMT, you often refer to the cost of responding to climate change as if there were no costs to not responding to it. There are a lot of unknowns, but you have to do your best to compare the cost of doing nothing to the cost of doing something with respect to what you can actually achieve. If there were nothing else but the displacement costs of people currently living on the low-lying coasts to contend with, I'm sure that we must be talking tens of trillions in insurance outlays alone.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Dec 7, 2016 - 02:53pm PT
Insulting us to conformity?

Whatever.

As I've said before, I am not optimistic.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 7, 2016 - 03:05pm PT
And right you are Eeyonkee. Lack of optimism for your brand of pessimism is what will save our species, the earth, and the creatures upon it.
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Dec 7, 2016 - 03:06pm PT
Pollution tax on ALL goods and services sold in the U.S. with the % of tax based on total pollution contribution and functioning like a VAT. Obviously this PAT (pollution added tax) would apply to ALL goods and services, including imports.

The greater the pollution to create and get the goods to market, the higher the tax. In this fashion, good ole China, India, Botswanna and any other country, can edit their infrastructure on their own timelines, just like us ;)

DMT

"Pollution Tax"? OMFG, I'm glad you're just a tiny voice on a tiny website and not working in the legislature.
Thinking for a moment that these "pollution taxes" would be used efficiently by our government is naive at best.
Punishing third world countries hurts too many people for me to ever want to be a part of such a thing.

Hand wringing over the effects of climate change is definitively a first world problem.
Losing sleep over this issue is for those that get to sleep in.
So, it all works out.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Dec 7, 2016 - 03:37pm PT
Hey Rick, I'm just being honest. Before I joined Supertopo, I was much more optimistic. I thought the easy proliferation of good science made possible by the internet and it's applications would win the day. Turns out, I was very naïve.

Also, I'm both a geologist and a software developer and modeler. Think of how the Titanic could not pull out of it's death path in time to save itself. As a modeler, I know the numbers matter a lot. With the kind of software that I write, we do sensitivity analyses routinely on variables used in our models. Some variables have small effects, some large. Often it is the combination that matters.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Dec 7, 2016 - 05:04pm PT
Eeyonkee ,I too share your pessimistic view and I have a geology degree as well.
I was attending school recently to achieve an environmental engineering degree,but since the spoiled brat from Queens has taken over , I will just ride out my existence .

Doing what I can ,living,otg,burning biodiesel,landfill free,zero approach biking and skiing and shopping local .

Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Dec 7, 2016 - 05:40pm PT
Seems like we are a step closer to an "unlimited" supply of energy.

We already have an unlimited supply of energy. It's a fusion reactor called the Sun :-)

Curt
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 7, 2016 - 06:01pm PT
If the monies committed to the impossibility of a parity substitution of the current grid compatible mix of hydro, fossil fuels, and nuclear with hideous bird choppers and PV were instead diverted to nuclear, both latest generation fission and fusion research, undecided persons might just believe in the global warming hype. Just a thought.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 7, 2016 - 08:41pm PT
The latest reactors, in design stage, can be mass produced at half the cost, produce a tiny fraction of the waste needing long term storage, and are virtually fail safe Moose. As far as storage goes; with the departure of that crooked old obstructionist dirty Harry Reid and the muting of other rabid faux enviros we will have storage facilities like the multi tens of billions of dollars Yucca Mountain available as well as other already operating facilities like WHIP outside Carlsbad New Mexico, etc, etc.







rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Dec 7, 2016 - 08:44pm PT
rick... i hear insurance companies won't insure nuclear reactors...
Fat Dad

Trad climber
Los Angeles, CA
Dec 7, 2016 - 08:44pm PT
Well, Donald Trump doesn't seem concerned about it either. He's nominated James Pruitt, who has sued the EPA several times in capacity as Attorney General the state of Oklahoma, as head of the EPA. Apparently, our next president doesn't understand what the acronym "EPA" stands for.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 7, 2016 - 10:27pm PT
not Tokamaks, inertial confinement fusion... ICF...

[Click to View YouTube Video]
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Dec 8, 2016 - 07:01am PT
Malemute...It's incredible how many right leaning people repeat this fabricated think tank mis-information - propoganda verbatem , over and over while thinking that it is scientific truth...And if you mention Koch brothers they have a melt down and go into victim mode by accusing you of being hateful...These people honestly think the Kochs are their best friends and that climate science is the ISIS...Talking about fearful , brow beaten pansys...
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Dec 8, 2016 - 09:08am PT
Now they're making the ice caps melt.

How far are those climate-change hoaxers gonna go???
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Dec 8, 2016 - 09:40am PT
Nuclear energy is a fantastic option. Except for that one nagging problem--radiation. It's a more slippery bastard than oil is, always wanting to get out and spill.

Also, if you use nukes to desal water, make sure the energy plants are submersible.
Fat Dad

Trad climber
Los Angeles, CA
Dec 8, 2016 - 09:54am PT
I feel that nuclear energy is somewhat promethean: it may be a better beast than we know how to handle. Storage is a problem as many have mentioned, as are potential accidents. The lady who cuts my wife's hair used to live near this sleepy Russian town called Chernobyl. She's dying of cancer now.

Also, to respond to Rick's point (really a diatribe against Harry Reid) about Yucca Mt. Two thirds of Nevadans were against it, so the dude was merely sticking up for his constituency. If that makes him a bad politician then perhaps we need something other than a representative form of government.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Dec 8, 2016 - 04:55pm PT
Moose, interesting. This lead me to a couple of articles with some great quotes!

Repository plans have foundered in Britain and America due to local democratic opposition.

This from: http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-26425674

And perhaps my favorite:

Part of their popularity comes from the fact that scientists and engineers have a much higher status in France than in America.

From: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/reaction/readings/french.html



Dingus, what do you consider to be long term for the insurance policies (yeah kind of a loaded question, but honestly)?
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Dec 9, 2016 - 09:08am PT
^^^ In other words, the lifetime of the plant (including its full decommission). Sounds about right to me, although the real lifespan needs to account for the waste (of course).



Saw this today:

The Trump transition team has asked for a list of Energy Department employees and contractors who attended United Nations climate meetings and worked on key Obama administration climate policies, including the social cost of carbon, according to a Bloomberg report.

The requests, detailed in a memo sent to the Energy Department by the Trump transition team, suggests that President-elect Trump is not backing down from his campaign promises to completely abandon the Obama administration’s approach to U.S. climate and energy policies, and instead adopt a policy that is much friendlier to fossil fuels and much more hostile to regulations that seek to curb greenhouse gas emissions and climate change.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Dec 9, 2016 - 10:34am PT
That couldn't possibly happen...ha, ha..
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 9, 2016 - 10:50am PT
As far as nuclear "waste" is concerned, the used fuel could be recycled, with the highly radioactive fission products removed and the Uranium made into new fuel. The products would be stored, but they represent a much smaller volume than throwing out all of the "used" fuel.

That technology doesn't exist yet, and the "waste fuels" stored around the country could be recycled anytime during the next century, so they are actually a resource. We have time to figure out how to reuse this "waste" and recycle the good bits into a nuclear energy economy.

This was scoped out by an MIT energy group that Moniz led before he became DOE secretary.

As with most "alternative energy" schemes, the cost of nuclear energy is not competitive with the current fossil fuels, largely because the full costs of fossil fuels is not included in the pricing... that would change with a carbon tax, whereas the full cost of the nuclear fuel cycle, including decommissioning and waste storage make nuclear less advantageous.

I, personally, am not as concerned about the radiation issues of modern nuclear reactors, especially if the plant sizes are reduced, which would also reduce the overall costs of construction and greatly reduce the risks of a major accident as happened in Japan.

But I also think the political resistance to nuclear power is too great to overcome at this time.
labrat

Trad climber
Erik O. Auburn, CA
Dec 9, 2016 - 11:20am PT
I mostly worry about the "stupid human factor" of nuclear energy. Hope that it can be engineered out in time.

Wind and solar everywhere don't seem to be the solution.

I'm not happy about the Scott Pruitt nomination......
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Dec 9, 2016 - 11:35am PT
People pay their insurance annually. You won't see a major insurance outlay issue - the premiums will go over-the-top crippling before the seas arrive, people won't be able to get insurance, and those who could afford it (I don't care about that much) will more likely shuffle to higher ground.

I think insurance rates will be an issue but I'm not sure it will be a solution. I did a quick search and didn't find it, but I seem to remember the state of Florida adding a state guarantee to homeowners coastal flooding insurance policies. Whether that has happened or not, if faced with prohibitive insurance policy rates, I could easily see a place like Florida putting a tax payer guarantee if they don't like what the private sector is telling them.

The tab for Katrina in New Orleans was picked up more by tax payers than by rate payers. I expect that another $100+ billion disaster in New Orleans is much more likely than not in the next 50~100 years.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Dec 9, 2016 - 11:39am PT
Storing nuclear waste in the Walker Lane (Yucca Mtn) is an idiotic idea and a non-starter for me. Why? Plate tectonics, look it up.

Minnesota salt dome mines, far better storage sites. Stable, inert, isolated; and a blue state to boot!

I don't know anything about the Minnesota salt dome mines, but storing the waste at Yucca is better than leaving it above ground like it currently is.

I'm in favor of nuke power so long as the investors are required to carry full, long term liability. No foisting of disaster costs on the public coffers and the liability insurance must be in place before ground is broken.

I would be too, but that is hard to do. I don't think this country has the political will to do nuclear power in an economically sound manner.

I don't Japan has the political will to do it in a safe manner.

France seems to be best at being both safe and economic although EDF is struggling with its latest nuclear design.

China scares me as far as nuclear power goes.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Dec 9, 2016 - 11:52am PT
I find it rather amusing (and depressing) that when it comes to nuclear waste storage, people are concerned about being able to store it safely (without further intervention) for thousands of years.

But when it comes to climate change and rising sea levels, the time horizon is 84 years (aka 2100).

In the next 84 years, sea level rise might only be a foot or so. But based on the amount of CO2 that has already been added to the atmosphere, sea level rise of 15 to 30 feet will happen on a time scale of centuries.

So what, if a thousand years from now Yucca mountain leaks? Pretty small potatoes by comparison.


https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22630253-300-latest-numbers-show-at-least-5-metres-sea-level-rise-locked-in/

Much uncertainty still surrounds the pace of future rises, with estimates for a 5-metre rise ranging from a couple of centuries – possibly even less – to a couple of millennia.

Unfortunately, most of the article is behind a pay wall. The full article said that the 5 meter rise is based only on Antarctica. The confidence in the science behind that melting was reasonably high. Greenland could add another 30 to 60 feet of sea level rise over the next thousand years, although the confidence in that is less certain.

But hey, lets focus on how we might screw up one tiny spot thousands of years from now but ignore what will happen all along the coast 500 years from now.
Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Dec 9, 2016 - 12:03pm PT
I don't think melting glaciers lie, but many scientists don't seem as concerned as we've been led to believe. Worth a read:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2013/02/13/peer-reviewed-survey-finds-majority-of-scientists-skeptical-of-global-warming-crisis/#9255f171b791

As a climber, I drive butt-loads, so I don't feel I can comment about consumption levels, carbon footprints, etc. As far as how concerned I am? I guess not a lot mostly because I feel like I can't do much. I bike for errands a lot. We heat/cool in an efficient way. But am I NOT going to take that next climbing trip because of the carbon it will put into the atmosphere? Nope. On belay!

BAd
Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Dec 9, 2016 - 12:48pm PT
Here's the study. Thick sledding:

http://oss.sagepub.com/content/33/11/1477.full

It does lump "engineers and geoscientists" together. Does this make it invalid?

BAd
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 9, 2016 - 01:10pm PT
you can read the 2012 article which the subject of the 2013 Forbes' opinion piece, the two have little in common...

Science or Science Fiction? Professionals’ Discursive Construction of Climate Change

LM Lefsrud & RE Meyer

eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Dec 9, 2016 - 03:53pm PT
The idea that engineers, specifically, are not necessarily good scientists is something that I have been aware of and pondering for at least a couple of decades. I have very smart brothers with civil and mechanical engineering degrees who are skeptics, for example. I'll be seeing them over Christmas and will try to set them straight.

I must say though that I've been reading a fair bit about why people believe as they do, and how things like facts - specifically those that are contrary to one's established point-of-view, are not nearly as important as I would have thought (hoped).
Jorroh

climber
Dec 9, 2016 - 04:03pm PT
The thing to remember about TGT is that he's really not interested in the truth. Any article that he links up is more than likely dredged from the depths of the right-wing gumby misinformation swamp, and isn't worth a second of any thinking persons time.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Dec 9, 2016 - 05:03pm PT
Anymore, my starting point is going to be that you can't persuade people with a deep or long-held (or maybe any) belief to believe differently than they do. Don't even go there. It has to be more subtle. That's not my strong suit...

Having said that, surely there is a fairly large group of people who are well aware of the science, but see a personal profit in proliferating doubt about that science to the general population or in expressing false beliefs (lying) in general, as Malemute has been hammering on.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 9, 2016 - 05:49pm PT
If a scientist is wrong, he gets a bigger grant.

not quite... scientists who are incompetent don't get grants, and don't get recognition, it is the complaint of the majority of "non-consensus" climate scientists who have tried to press their cases well after their ideas have been shown to be "wrong."

Hypothesis testing, on the other hand, where the hypothesis can fail, is not "wrong," it is a test of something for which "right" or "wrong" have not yet been demonstrated. You can get grants for that, that is what science is all about, making the hypotheses and testing them...

The hypothesis that the 20th century (and now 21st century) climate has changed because of human activity is consistent with all the tests so far thrown at it... not so for the various "natural causes" hypotheses... all of which have been tested and failed the test. Once your hypothesis has failed, you can't keep resurrecting... you have to abandon it and move on.

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 9, 2016 - 06:42pm PT
TGT2 - so how many people have you killed in your engineering career?
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 9, 2016 - 06:47pm PT
The simple truth is that when the major funder (Government) of research pays for anthropogenic global warming (or more popularly known as climate change now) studies you get anthropogenic leaning studies. No more clear example of bias is seen in the scientific world.
Al Barkamps

Social climber
Red Stick
Dec 9, 2016 - 06:54pm PT
The essence, (and beauty) of academic freedom is that you are allowed to be wrong.

Wow.....


Just...WOW!
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 9, 2016 - 07:01pm PT
except that's not how it happened, rick...

it started out looking at weather and climate and trying to make sense of what was being observed...

the result of that study was the conclusion that human activity was changing the climate.

That's what explains the observations.

Jorroh

climber
Dec 9, 2016 - 07:07pm PT
Also worth pointing out that to get caught falsifying data is often the end of a scientists career (not neoliberal economists of course).

Climate change denying think-tank blowhards....not so much (or more correctly a prerequisite for the job).

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 9, 2016 - 07:29pm PT
so TGT2, you must have a list of engineers who have killed people...

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 9, 2016 - 07:31pm PT
Okay Ed, how about this: Say I'm a department head fir DOE and I put out a grant for design of a small scale accelerator using existing off the shelf parts from the bone yard. Are you going to submit a proposal for CERN or the Scroungatron?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 9, 2016 - 08:03pm PT
they didn't ask for the Scrounge-a-tron, we invented it as cost effective way to solve another problem...

it was the end-product of a series of studies and cost trade-offs. But it isn't the same thing as climate science... the USG has invested in weather (and climate) research for a very long time, predicting both the weather and the climate is something of interest to the USG for obvious reasons.

Interestingly, to predict the climate, it turns out you have to take into account the human activities that put CO2 into the atmosphere... this is the result of the program of predictive climate science.

Climate change funding is a very recent occurrence when compared to the decades of funding the weather and climate science programs across the USG.

Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Dec 9, 2016 - 09:00pm PT
So, Malmute et al.:

If you are so worried about climate change, are YOU going to stop driving? Stop flying? After all, we aren't about to change what the Chinese do. The Canadians seem to love their oil shale. I can't change Canadian or Chinese politics. We can all, however, take direct, individual action: Stop driving. Are you willing to take the pledge? I'm not.

BAd
jgill

Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
Dec 9, 2016 - 09:36pm PT
To nuclear energy and Teslas?

I like it.
Fat Dad

Trad climber
Los Angeles, CA
Dec 10, 2016 - 08:05am PT
Well, it looks like the witch hunt is starting:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/09/us/politics/climate-change-energy-department-donald-trump-transition.html
Perhaps not, but it's hard to understand a different motive than to scourge the Energy Dept. of individuals informed about climate change. Probably like much of his business, Trump appears to be outsourcing the presidency to corporate interests. He has also named an Exxon Mobile chief as a primary candidate for Secretary of State. That, and the nomination of Pruitt to head the EPA, Trump seems very beholden to the energy industry. Does not bode well for positive action to address climate change, or even alterate energy.
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Dec 10, 2016 - 09:23am PT
To nuclear energy and Teslas?

I like it.

When the country reemerges from the Trump dark ages and once again becomes interested in global warming, nuclear energy will almost surely be part of the energy mix.

Curt
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Dec 10, 2016 - 09:25am PT
We humans are lazy and stupid...How many people do you know who chain smoke , can't finish a sentence without hacking up flem , and laugh off warnings about cigarettes being bad for your health....? Climate change to most people is this invisible boogeyman that has no bearing on their quality of life or ability to earn a living... Expecting people to buy into climate change is futile especially when you have the oil industry telling lazy car owners what they want to hear...it's the same scenario as the tobacco companies lying to the FDA and saying smoking doesn't cause cancer...If you live in the mountains you can tell something is up with the weather patterns...If you live in a city , more traffic gridlock and warmer days at the beach are the new norm...Nothing to worry about..
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 10, 2016 - 11:26am PT
Cost effective. That's great Ed, you don't often associate cost effectiveness with government agencies. Talking of agencies; are you employed by DOE and if so did you get the questionnaire circulated there by the incoming administration? p.s. I thought I remembered you mentioning that you are a contractor and not a direct employeee.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Dec 10, 2016 - 01:20pm PT
As a software modeler, here's my take on the situation using a simple flow chart.

Note the big decisions are
1. Is the climate getting warmer, and
2. Is it a bad thing? (a nod to MadBolter1)
3. Is CO2 responsible?

Highlights of the flowchart
If you select "Yes" to the first and second decisions, then do nothing is not an appropriate response, period.

If you select "Yes" to the third, then it is logical to assume the possibility that limiting the flux of human-caused carbon into the atmosphere and/or sequestering atmospheric carbon via engineering methods are potential mitigative measures that are worth exploring.
kunlun_shan

Mountain climber
SF, CA
Dec 10, 2016 - 09:59pm PT
>If you have been travelling up the Icefields Parkway at all, you can see how the glacier has receded over the years, just in our lifetime.

Reminds me of the MCR post from this summer with a photo of Skyladder on Andromeda in the Icefields, "which is now mostly dirt".

https://mountainconditions.com/reports/mt-athabasca-0
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 10, 2016 - 11:19pm PT
Cost effective. That's great Ed, you don't often associate cost effectiveness with government agencies.

well rick, if you don't actually know about government agencies you wouldn't know if they were cost effective or not, would you?

I presume you also know that the research that the DOE is engaged in is not something that you can decide is cost effective or not, the whole idea of the research is that you don't know the answer before you start... that includes build research facilities that are cutting edge, so much so that no one has every built anything like them before...

Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Dec 11, 2016 - 07:30am PT
Cost effectiveness is such a dicey thing.

EMS systems in research are very questionable, as to whether they accomplish much, in terms of saving lives. Many studies have demonstrated that "lights and siren" as they are used in EMS ambulances have little, if any, change in outcomes.

And yet, no one would think of abandoning this, to save money.

(you're safe, YOSAR)

But the topic of Climate Change is not the inconvenience of more expensive hamburgers, or the death of a rare person who has a heart attack. The consequences are a massive change in how the entire human race interacts with the planet.

Carbon pollution of the atmosphere clearly is happening, it is happening because of human activities, and it is getting worse. Irrespective of any other involved issues, increasing CO2 in increasing the problem. Also clearly, this is within our power to alter. Already people are having to relocate due to seawater rise.

Unchecked, it will effect billions, those who live along coasts, which is much of humanity.

Why is it not in the interests of everyone to alter the curve through re-imagining our power sources? Losing coal as a fuel source, for example, has only the downside of those loss of jobs. The coal doesn't disappear. Undoubtedly, technology will reveal to us other ways to utilize coal in a truely "clean" way, with time. We have no need to burn it NOW.

On the other hand, cleaner, or in the potential of the newest types of nuclear, actual "clean", will create an entire industrial base, with a massive number of good jobs.

It seems to me that impeding this progress is simply a cry out for the virtues of buggy whips, and with no horses to whip, we whip each other.

<sigh>
c wilmot

climber
Dec 11, 2016 - 07:35am PT
Let them work in nuclear power plants....


Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Dec 11, 2016 - 07:36am PT
Ed, you are so right about research and cost-effectiveness (like I'm telling you?)

I'm engaged in a water fight in the City of Los Angeles, and one of the fights is over cost-effectiveness. I'm all for that, when we get to established engineering.

However, there is a lot of new, untested technology....and even poorly studies old technology--some of it Roman(!).

I've had to do battle over the issue of pilot projects, things that you have to try, to see what the issue might be, and to really find out the costs. Small scale.

If we don't do that sort of thing, which might be relatively expensive, we might miss decades of advances, because we committed on a large scale to something else.

I appreciate that you work on a different scale, and towards different goals, but the thinking process revolves around the same things.

No rational person wants to waste money (unless as fraud or personal enrichment).
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 11, 2016 - 10:59am PT
learning something, even if it is that a particular approach won't work, is not loosing money, it is gaining knowledge.

the only failed research is that for which nothing is learned at all.

The national laboratories are an incredible resource for the country, they engage in a huge variety of research the utility of which may not be apparent from the outset, and whose execution may require invention, that is to say, we don't know how to do something before we try to do it.

As one can read in Critical Assembly: A Technical History of Los Alamos during the Oppenheimer Years, 1943-1945 by Lillian Hoddeson, Paul W. Henriksen, Roger A. Meade, Catherine L. Westfall, the highest profile science project in recent history, the technical path to achieving its goal was not at all evident when it was started. In current dollars, the cost of the project was $26 billion, of which 90% was used to create infrastructure, and 10% on the actual production.

The point being that, at that time, it was deemed essential to produce the atomic bomb for the defense of the country. How you calculate the "cost efficiency" is a mystery to me.

The Manhattan Project is only one example, and the best known one, of how science was used in WWII. Radar was another technical development, as well as a number of other, less dramatic, contributions (e.g. how to mass produce penicillin).

The Trinity test happened on July 16, 1945, the successful demonstration of the atomic bomb. On July 25, 1945, Vannevar Bush wrote a reply to a request from F.D. Roosevelt in which he asked four questions... two of which:

Third: What can the Government do now and in the future to aid research activities by public and private organizations? The proper roles of public and of private research, and their interrelation, should be carefully considered.

Fourth: Can an effective program be proposed for discovering and developing scientific talent in American youth so that the continuing future of scientific research in this country may be assured on a level comparable to what has been done during the war?

The answers to these questions was contained in Bush's reply entitled Science - The Endless Frontier

http://www.nsf.gov/about/history/vbush1945.htm

which stated answered these questions and argued for the creation of federal government support for research.

One of our hopes is that after the war there will be full employment. To reach that goal the full creative and productive energies of the American people must be released. To create more jobs we must make new and better and cheaper products. We want plenty of new, vigorous enterprises. But new products and processes are not born full-grown. They are founded on new principles and new conceptions which in turn result from basic scientific research. Basic scientific research is scientific capital. Moreover, we cannot any longer depend upon Europe as a major source of this scientific capital. Clearly, more and better scientific research is one essential to the achievement of our goal of full employment.

The idea of "scientific capital" is important, and the idea that V. Bush was getting across was that if science had to be employed in future conflicts, the time necessary the "capital" may be too long, thus we have to "bank" it... and since we didn't know what science would be necessary, we had to fund all science.

Basic research is a long-term process - it ceases to be basic if immediate results are expected on short-term support.

The Importance of Basic Research

Basic research is performed without thought of practical ends. It results in general knowledge and an understanding of nature and its laws. This general knowledge provides the means of answering a large number of important practical problems, though it may not give a complete specific answer to any one of them. The function of applied research is to provide such complete answers. The scientist doing basic research may not be at all interested in the practical applications of his work, yet the further progress of industrial development would eventually stagnate if basic scientific research were long neglected.

One of the peculiarities of basic science is the variety of paths which lead to productive advance. Many of the most important discoveries have come as a result of experiments undertaken with very different purposes in mind. Statistically it is certain that important and highly useful discoveries will result from some fraction of the undertakings in basic science; but the results of any one particular investigation cannot be predicted with accuracy.

Basic research leads to new knowledge. It provides scientific capital. It creates the fund from which the practical applications of knowledge must be drawn. New products and new processes do not appear full-grown. They are founded on new principles and new conceptions, which in turn are painstakingly developed by research in the purest realms of science.

Today, it is truer than ever that basic research is the pacemaker of technological progress. In the nineteenth century, Yankee mechanical ingenuity, building largely upon the basic discoveries of European scientists, could greatly advance the technical arts. Now the situation is different.

A nation which depends upon others for its new basic scientific knowledge will be slow in its industrial progress and weak in its competitive position in world trade, regardless of its mechanical skill.

As is implied by the highlighted section, basic research is not "cost effective" if viewed on a project-by-project basis... but viewing it as an investment where the results are banked and the possibility of return deferred into the future, at which time the dividends are "paid."




While this seems like a, by now, old idea, the advocacy for basic research was radical in its time. The national character of the US was deemed by an early observer to be quite at odds with the idea of "basic research."

de Tocqueville wrote in his 1835 work De La Démocratie en Amérique in Chapter 10:
"Why The Americans Are More Addicted To Practical Than To Theoretical Science" his observation that

In America the purely practical part of science is admirably understood, and careful attention is paid to the theoretical portion which is immediately requisite to application. On this head the Americans always display a clear, free, original, and inventive power of mind. But hardly anyone in the United States devotes himself to the essentially theoretical and abstract portion of human knowledge.

he goes on to note:

Nothing is more necessary to the culture of the higher sciences, or of the more elevated departments of science, than meditation; and nothing is less suited to meditation than the structure of democratic society.


It is interesting that this captures the debate regarding "cost effectiveness," which in the end is the desire to show how basic scientific research contributes directly to "the bottom line." And note that this is in 1835, based on 4 years of observation.

In most cases, it doesn't.

However, that basic research is essential to "the bottom line" however you define it.

The debate is important, and is ongoing, and has been a part of the national dialog since its beginning.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 11, 2016 - 11:12am PT
What's to know Ed. Baseline budgeting says all one needs to know. From a business perspective this practice is unsustainable. As your Scroungeatron demonstrates you are of a different mindset, probably of a conservationist bent. That's admirable. What's not admirable is supporting the alarmist meme of imminent disaster after disaster when your own expert opinion is mankind's contribution is feeble compared to the range of natural variation.


rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Dec 11, 2016 - 11:18am PT
Rick...How do you measure natural variation...?
pyro

Big Wall climber
Calabasas
Dec 11, 2016 - 11:21am PT
Dec 9, 2016 - 07:01pm PT
except that's not how it happened, rick...

it started out looking at weather and climate and trying to make sense of what was being observed...

the result of that study was the conclusion that human activity was changing the climate.

That's what explains the observations.



sure thing Ed.,.,
Fat Dad

Trad climber
Los Angeles, CA
Dec 11, 2016 - 11:37am PT
Rick's cost effectiveness argument is not a serious rebuttal. One could make (but mot necessarily establish the truth of) that argument with respect to almost every government agency, yet I don't hear calls to scrap those. It has become the quick, non-substantive reply of the right to most policies proposed by the Dems. It's right up there with "it's a job killer" argument. Easy to make, hard to prove but readily swallowed by the right leaning voters.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 11, 2016 - 11:40am PT
rick is referring to a statement I made regarding the size of the "signal" of rising temperatures in the early part of the 20th century compared to the natural variability of the climate, as we could measure it then.

It makes a good sound bite for him, it confirms his own belief, and allows him to neglect the context. rick knows the answer, he just finds arguments that support that particular answer.

As the level of CO2 increased in the atmosphere, and the surface temperature rose as a consequence, this "signal" increased well beyond the natural variability of the recent climate. Supported both by increasingly accurate contemporary measurements, and the increasingly accurate unfolding of historic climate.

Paleoclimatology was a "basic research" activity which did not have any goal other than to understand the historic climate... as the hypothesis of human activity affecting modern climate became a more likely explanation, interest naturally turned to understanding the pre-industrial climate, and so paleoclimate emerged as an important part of climate science.

On a day-to-day, year-to-year look, natural variation might still seem to mask the general climate trends, now defined to be the 30-year average, and we are barely 30 years into the "modern observation" era.

The signal of human activity is robust... isn't it interesting that we don't hear about "the pause" anymore? it wasn't a pause... the signal increases.


As for my own opinion, I stand with the best science to help inform my views, and the best climate science is that human activity is the major contributing factor to the 20th-21st century climate change. That science also forms the basis of what might happen in the future, a much better basis than rick's vague concerns regarding his pocket book. And it is likely that his pocket book won't be very effected, but his children's and his children's children most likely will.

Given that there is no need to drive an inefficient car, for example, and vent its considerable exhaust into the atmosphere, one wonders why our notion of "personal liberty" (my right to pollute?) and our desire to have an overpowered car, is more important than the future of the planet... why do we need to be wasteful of resources?

As far as personal liberty is concerned, I'm not advocating that rick should get rid of his Humvee, just that the cost of operating it be the price he pays, he can do it, he has to pay for it... same for his profligate energy use at home...

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 11, 2016 - 11:43am PT
sure thing Ed.,.,

nice one liner, pyro... unfortunately the volcanic activity is swamped by the human CO2 increases...

maybe you should try to look at the science, it would be time better spent than trolling the websites you appear to enjoy looking at, the ones that make you look rather foolish.

http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/volcanowatch/archive/2007/07_02_15.html
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Dec 11, 2016 - 04:03pm PT
Here's some micro-economic cost effectiveness checks for you.

A solar installation for my house would cost around $8,000. The power bill savings (average) over a year was estimated at around 50% or $50 a month ($600 a year).

So the payback on the installation is 13 years!!! Who would do that???

So, how about an electric car? My truck is getting old and I'm shopping, so I'm going to get something...

Well, most things out there don't have the range to get from home to work. So Tesla? That has the range... Let's say a Model 3 to make the economics remotely fair. So by the time you add the options to make a Telsa ... a Tesla ... you are up to $60k. A replacement for my truck is $27k, so the incremental cost to save the earth and save gas is $33k.

$33,000 buys 1000 tanks of gas. 350,000 miles of driving. The way I drive that is 25-30 years. I'll save the $33k and worry about it again in 10 or 15 years...

Why aren't people concerned about climate change? I think some are. But people are way more concerned about the money in their bank account. What little there is...

Jon Beck

Trad climber
Oceanside
Dec 11, 2016 - 05:20pm PT
Dave - there is also the concept of doing the right thing. So what if the system takes 13 years to pay off. You gotta factor in electricity going up in cost, and that solar system will last 30+ years.

Why drive a truck, I never understood that. I was just in Texas, everyone has a full size truck and 95% of them have no need for it. I haul more stuff than probably 90% of truck owners and I have never owned a full size truck I use a trailer.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Dec 11, 2016 - 05:26pm PT
Trucks are like plumes on a Stellar Jay....Men ( boys ) drive trucks thinking it makes their penises bigger and will lead to intercourse and social acceptance...
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 11, 2016 - 05:55pm PT
Why aren't people concerned about climate change? I think some are. But people are way more concerned about the money in their bank account.

sure, you could stop paying your sewer bill too, saves you money, and just do it in your backyard, right?

but for societal reasons (e.g. prevention of various diseases spread in waste) you are required to have a sanitary system, most have city sewer... and you pay.

Now if you thought of the atmosphere as your backyard, (which it is, just up above you) you are dumping that truck exhaust into it and not paying anything at all, even though it is ultimately detrimental to society.

The cost of that dumping is what a carbon tax recovers... it doesn't take away from you, it recoups the cost of your decision to drive your truck and the subsequent release of that CO2.

Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Dec 11, 2016 - 06:20pm PT
California just enacted new laws intended to address climate change by doing away with 100,000+ jobs, making the most expensive gasoline and electricity in America more expensive, making food more expensive, and adding $45,000 to the cost of a house.

http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-climate-fight-20161108-story.html

That seems like a hell of a lot to spend doing something that will be largely ineffective.



rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Dec 11, 2016 - 06:31pm PT
Chaz...Don't fret...Trump will bring them back...Jobs that is...
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 11, 2016 - 06:34pm PT
That seems like a hell of a lot to spend doing something that will be largely ineffective.

if they meet their goal it means a considerable reduction in California's contribution to the CO2 problem...

that's not "largely ineffective."

Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Dec 11, 2016 - 06:41pm PT
But there's no way to accomplish the same without making everybody in California less wealthy?

California already has the highest poverty rate in the U.S. as it is, largely because of our high housing costs.
Fat Dad

Trad climber
Los Angeles, CA
Dec 11, 2016 - 06:51pm PT
Also Chaz, some of those estimates are from industries opposed to the measure, and they are often group are often prone to exagerate or provide a worst case estimate. Also, if some of the costs are associated with alternate energy modifications (solar panels and water heaters, etc.) are likely to save homeowners costs over the long run. Honestly, the only reason why some of these features aren't on new builds is because of industry opposition to something over than their standard models. Remember how the auto industry claimed for years how it would be too costly to redesign and build more fuel efficient vehicles?

Also, they reported that the overall impact is small compared to the economy as a whole.
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Dec 11, 2016 - 07:57pm PT
i am still baffled...

CO2

300, oh no, lets use 400 ppm.

that is 4/100ths of one percent.

By what mechanism does this trace gas alter climate?

If you cannot name the mechanism, you cannot say it is causal.




monolith

climber
state of being
Dec 11, 2016 - 08:00pm PT
Not sure of the name you are looking for but the mechanism is well understood. The co2 molecules average cross section spacing is within the wavelength of a significant amount of energy radiated by the earths surface and causes some energy to be directed back to the surface.
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Dec 11, 2016 - 08:03pm PT
you believe that?

significant? what is the measured amount?


monolith

climber
state of being
Dec 11, 2016 - 08:05pm PT
Of course, it's been known for more than a hundred years.
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Dec 11, 2016 - 08:07pm PT
then how do you explain the earth having a CO2 level of over 1,200 ppm for 200 of the last 250 million years?

why didn't we bake?
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Dec 11, 2016 - 08:11pm PT
A solar installation for my house would cost around $8,000. The power bill savings (average) over a year was estimated at around 50% or $50 a month ($600 a year).

So the payback on the installation is 13 years!!! Who would do that???

here in LA, we are inundated with private companies that want to do exactly that---free to the homeowner.

yes, it makes a difference:

http://www.tellmedwp.com/go/doc/1475/2515498/LADWP-Takes-Next-Step-toward-Eliminating-Coal-Power-from-Navajo-Generating-Station

LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) today took a major step toward reaching Mayor Garcetti’s goal of eliminating coal from its power mix by 2025 by approving an agreement to sell the LADWP’s 21% share in the coal-fired Navajo Generating Station outside of Page, Arizona.

The sale would reduce LADWP’s greenhouse gas emissions by 5.39 million metric tons over the next 3 ½ years—equivalent to taking over one million cars off the road.

Today’s action by the Board of Water and Power Commissioners will also put LADWP on a path to end power deliveries from the plant by mid-2016, about 3 ½ years ahead of the date mandated by State climate change legislation.

Levine said, “Not only will LADWP achieve early compliance with state legislation, we will also save costs, gain valuable transmission assets and receive renewable geothermal power through this agreement.”


The citizens of Ca did not pay for this, the ratepayers of LA have done so.
rbord

Boulder climber
atlanta
Dec 11, 2016 - 08:12pm PT
I am still baffled

With incomplete information, we can remain baffled 24/7 about essentially everything, if that suits our purposes. But the way human brains have evolved to work is that remaining baffled doesn't suit our purposes.

4/100ths of one percent

Plus also it's a teeny molecule. I mean like teeny tiny - smaller even than 4/100ths of one percent! It's so small you can't even see it. That's gotta count for something. I love our human relationship with math.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Dec 11, 2016 - 08:13pm PT
By what mechanism does this trace gas alter climate?

If you cannot name the mechanism, you cannot say it is causal.

Horsesh*t.

You can't name the mechanism by which performing an appendectomy saves a person's life, but I doubt that you would dispute the causality.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 11, 2016 - 08:13pm PT
why didn't we bake?

"we've" only been around for the last few of those millions of years...
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Dec 11, 2016 - 08:14pm PT
Right now, my bigger concern is the questionnaire being circulated at the dept of energy.

Ed, it seems they want to build more nuclear power, but at the same time lay everybody off who can do so!

Is that "economy of scale?"
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Dec 11, 2016 - 08:18pm PT
Los Angeles City Council backs planning for 100 percent renewable energy


The Los Angeles City Council took a major step Friday toward making the city run on clean energy alone.

The Council directed the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to develop a plan for going 100 percent renewable, including looking at where, when, and how the city should allocate resources to achieve that goal.

In the motion, Councilmembers Paul Krekorian and Mike Bonin wrote that “the city has an opportunity to re-create its utility in a way that recognizes the potential for a fossil-free future, demonstrates global leadership in its commitment to clean energy, and protects ratepayers from the increasing costs of carbon-based fuels.It passed unanimously, 12–0, on Friday.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 11, 2016 - 08:21pm PT
http://history.aip.org/climate/simple.htm

Then why pay attention at all to CO2, when water was far more abundant? Although Arrhenius understood the answer intuitively, it would take a century for it to be explained in thoroughly straightforward language and confirmed as a central feature of even the most elaborate computer models. The answer, in brief, is that the Earth is a wet planet. Water cycles in and out of the air, oceans, and soils in a matter of days, exquisitely sensitive to fluctuations in temperature. By contrast CO2 lingers in the atmosphere for centuries. So the gas acts as a "control knob" that sets the level of water vapor. If all the CO2 were somehow removed, the temperature at first would fall only a little. But then less water would evaporate into the air, and some would fall as rain. With less water vapor (and also less clouds retaining heat at night) the air would cool further, bringing more rain... and then snow. Within weeks, the air would be entirely dry and the Earth would settle into the frozen state that Fourier had calculated for a planet with no greenhouse gases.(16a)


thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Dec 11, 2016 - 08:22pm PT
why didn't we bake?

c'mon EB, you understand that a singular factor does not control temperature (or climate)
it stands to reason that there is a complex interplay between many influences, like the variable: ocean/land ratio through geologic history, water vapor concentrations in the atmosphere, percentage of sky covered by clouds, extent of land covered by ice and snow versus forest.




Dangitall Hartouni!
What the hell the number four has to do with this I don't know. Never did trust any of them -ists
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Dec 11, 2016 - 08:28pm PT
A lot of this is vision. People can't envision doing something that actually has an impact.

a few years ago, I was up in the Sierra around a campfire, with a bunch of teachers from Fresno, bitching about how they were going to have a new program to collect home recycling. "It will never work!" exclaimed one.

I pointed out we had been doing it successfully in LA for THIRTY YEARS.

http://www.forester.net/pdfs/City_of_LA_Zero_Waste_Progress_Report.pdf

The City achieved a remarkable landfill diversion rate
of 76.4% by the year 2012

The State's diversion rate goal is 25%. LA surpassed that in 1995.

Even with this accomplishment, there are still opportunities to achieve significant additional landfill diversion,
and the City is committed to achieving zero waste by the year 2025.
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Dec 11, 2016 - 08:43pm PT
you are correct Cowboy, that is why it is absurd to assign responsibility solely to CO2 levels now.

Core samples are still core samples, and so far the proponents of manmade global warming have not altered THAT data. i resent the adjusting to old data that has happened to support a cause rather than tell the truth. such has happened even with the seemingly inarguable measurement of temperature over the last 120 years, attempts have been made to lower temperature records set in the period prior to 130 because the data did not match the narrative. If the weather caster tells you his model says it is raining, but you look outside at 50% cloud cover, and no rain, which is correct the model or the weather?

I would bet I pick up more trash at a campsite, or along a trail that 98% of the rest here,
i have even been an ecology club president.... but i still look at the geologic history of the earth, and we are well within the normal cycles of the last 300,000 years, and we are low, very low in CO2 when compared to core samples dating back 250 million years. and those very long term graphs, show no correlation between CO2 and temperature.. if i supply it you won't believe it, so look yourself.

meanwhile i will just be a simpleton and look at results that cannot be manipulated, or graphed to make a 25% increase look like disaster...

the North American Continent has a high temperature record of 136 degrees F. set at the Furnace Creek weather station in Death Valley, in 1913. no urbanization there, no urban heat dome to raise temps, as has happened with "average temperatures in so many cities.... if you look at individual weather stations over the past 100 years, local urbanization has increased local temperatures.. but the urban heat dome is not discussed, just the raw data is accepted as accurate and we have manmade global warming!
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Dec 11, 2016 - 08:46pm PT
so malemute make another intelligence comment...

predictable.. when you cannot debate the issue just attack.

the fun part is, higher CO2 levels might be a result of warming.
The cattle industry puts more CO2 in the air than the combustion of fossil fuels, even with Al Gore's private jet.

thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Dec 11, 2016 - 08:55pm PT
I am unsure as to who is saying that it is solely CO2. Similarly, I do not think that you really believe that a high temperature at one location on the earth necessarily derives from just the immediate vicinity's conditions.




you do see that alteration of just one of those factors can influence the others to push the overall temperatures and climates of the earth in a given direction, right EB?
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Dec 11, 2016 - 08:55pm PT
Mr. Hartouni said
By contrast CO2 lingers in the atmosphere for centuries.

and water does not?? maybe you can refer me to where water vapor was not present, or was at lower levels, than CO2..

yes, absurd.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Dec 11, 2016 - 09:00pm PT


From the Google machine: water stays in the atmosphere for only nine days on average.
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Dec 11, 2016 - 09:06pm PT
Scripps Institute shows precipitous drops in CO2 concentrations as measured from core samples...

Cyclical huge increases, without man, and cyclical precipitous drops in concentrations... your rhetoric does not match natural history.

Water is always present in the atmosphere, whether or not it cycles, and always in thousands of times higher concentrations than CO2...
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Dec 11, 2016 - 09:11pm PT
and water does not?? maybe you can refer me to where water vapor was not present, or was at lower levels, than CO2..

EdB, I suppose you are just being intentionally obtuse. You've apparently never been in a rain or snowstorm, but have been in many dry ice storms.

Now you are denying things that we all experience every year of our lives, to be argumentative. I thought better of you.
monolith

climber
state of being
Dec 11, 2016 - 09:12pm PT
that is why it is absurd to assign responsibility solely to CO2 levels now.

Nope, because thats the factor man is dramatically changing now.

Water vapor goes along with the ride. Hence CO2 is the main 'control knob'

The mass of a car does the main damage in an accident, but the cause is often the responsibility of a something many times smaller than the car, the brain behind the wheel.
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Dec 11, 2016 - 09:13pm PT
Ken, Water cycles through the system, but it is always present in thousands of times higher concentrations, and wildly more variably to affect weather and climate... to assign similar responsibility to CO2 is absurd.
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Dec 11, 2016 - 09:14pm PT
goodnight.

maybe for homework....

Do any of you acknowledge the Pleistocene Glacial ended 11,700 years ago?

or that the Holocene interglacial is where we are now and it is getting warmer??

or that most weather stations are urban, surrounded by more city that 50 years ago, and measured temperature readings are expected to go up as urbanization increases?

do you know that Mars is getting warmer? Insolation?

have fun.

and there is this inconvenient truth:

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE BY CONTINENT

North America Furnace Creek Ranch (Death Valley), Calif., USA July 10, 1913 134.0 56.7
Asia Tirat Tsvi, Israel June 21, 1942 129.2 54.0
Africa1 Kebili, Tunisia July 7, 1931 131.0 55.0
Australia Oodnadatta, South Australia Jan. 2, 1960 123.0 50.7
Europe Athens, Greece (and Elefsina, Greece) July 10, 1977 118.4 48.0
South America Rivadavia, Argentina Dec. 11, 1905 120.0 48.9
Oceania Tuguegarao, Philippines April 20, 1912 108.0 42.2
Antarctica Vanda Station, Scott Coast Jan. 5, 1974 59.0 15.0

note that Vanda Station construction began in 1967, so the real record over the past 120 years is unknown.

Record temps cannot be manipulated. record temps are pregore, not postgore.
monolith

climber
state of being
Dec 11, 2016 - 09:25pm PT
We peaked the natural temps during this cycle about 7000 years ago during the Holocene and they have been generally declining slowly since then, until now.

And thanks for the weather reports, but we are talking about global climate temp average.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 11, 2016 - 09:33pm PT
You're forgetting the Minoan, Roman and Medieval Warm periods Mono. Just because the criminal climate cabal thinks they've adjusted them out of existence doesn't mean anybody but mind numbed robots are buying the farce. In S.E. Alaska some receding glaciers are revealing forests of stumps radio carbon dated to the Medieval Warm period. Besides this, there is voluminous peer reviewed literature documenting the warm periods effects worldwide.
No amigo, there is nothing remarkable about the minor warming of the current period. Nothing, except the ineptitude of the criminals pushing this wealth and rights grab.
monolith

climber
state of being
Dec 11, 2016 - 09:35pm PT
That's why I said 'generally'.

And those periods had little impact on global average temp because there were localized in time or space.

Sumner is now pouring over the papers on his desk from the 3% and will present shortly.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 11, 2016 - 09:39pm PT
The only icecaps of continental size, Antarctica and Greenland, are gaining mass according to recent studies.

The Arctic is a giant iceberg since it floats on water rather than a true icecap anchored to land.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Dec 11, 2016 - 09:41pm PT
Well, then, what a fantastic opportunity for business!!

If I were as smart a guy as Trump, and knowing that this is all a false conspiracy, I'd be buying up every low-lying piece of property in the world.

That's what he's doing, right?

Right?


That's where you are going to make your fortuna, too, right? Just take out some second mortgages and buy, buy, buy! the land will be cheap!
Al Barkamps

Social climber
Red Stick
Dec 11, 2016 - 09:41pm PT
..in Alaska some receding glaciers are revealing forests of stumps radio carbon dated to the Medieval Warm period.

hooda thunk that the same mechanism that mills mountains down to dust can leave whole forests untouched! Only in Alaska!
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 11, 2016 - 09:44pm PT
You're a frigging idiot Kenny boy. Who can afford beachfront after the likes of Gore, Decaprio,and Obama have bid the price up.
monolith

climber
state of being
Dec 11, 2016 - 09:49pm PT
Greenland loses over 1 trillion tons of ice in 4 years.


http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069666/full
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 11, 2016 - 09:51pm PT
^^^^^ Fake news. Lies, lies, lies.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Dec 11, 2016 - 09:52pm PT
your growing ice cap studies never refute a warming planet RS
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Dec 11, 2016 - 10:23pm PT
Rick Sumner,
they do not want science,
they do not want to hear facts.
they are devoted to their religion, Man Made Global Warming.

It turns out it is the left that denies science...

if not so there would be a discussion without insults or temper.
just the pursuit of truth, but that is not the case.
F

climber
away from the ground
Dec 11, 2016 - 10:30pm PT
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 11, 2016 - 11:26pm PT
the quote I posted was from the American Institute of Physics, for which I included the link.

That is as scientific an organization that you can get, EdBanister.

You might read some of the other articles at the website, it won't hurt you, and you might find that you are the one making absurd statements.

You might also post links to your websites so we can check the details of the things you are posting.

asking rick for references will not get anything, rick has a stack of those papers in a place that is always inconvenient for him to retrieve... that has been his MO from his first post.


rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 11, 2016 - 11:32pm PT
That's a four foot tall stack of stuff Ed.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 11, 2016 - 11:34pm PT
whatever, I hope it burns well...
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Dec 12, 2016 - 06:02am PT
I love some of the replies to my solar/ vehicle post. Particularly the truck posts...

My wife's car cost around $25k. I can buy a Tacoma for about that used. So .... why not buy something that can haul bikes, camping stuff, and construction materials?

Also - the flaws in economic analysis and general attitudes of the left.

What's the solar panel seller and installer's margin?
- I don't care and its none of government's business either...


The cost of the cars you've mentioned will increase as manufacturer's will pass-on the 'carbon cost' of production and disposal. And your petrol costs will go up considerably. You have some decisions to make, which need to factor whether you can:

Get a job with a closer commute - No. My choices and reasons for them are none of your business.

Move house to somewhere with less self-drive transit involved. No, See above,

Travel in a lower petrol running vehicle such as a motorbike. F*#k you - try driving 80 miles (each way) to work and back in mountains when its 20 below and snowing on a moped.


Substitute bike riding, walking, and running for driving. See above.


Convince legislators to subsidise your 'business as usual' approach to climate change.

Adapt your house, and the way you use it, to reduce your use of non-renewable electricity and gas. See economic analysis.


Start shopping for things that are less environmentally harmful,will last longer, and will not be to expensive to maintain/repair. Like a 14 year old truck? it was cheap to repair...

If you are over-eating, you will need to stop. Damn.. I have high metabolism....

If you are frivolous with water, you will need to stop. You mean I can't drink 8 glasses of water a day anymore?

If your recreation is too expensive a carbon-polluter, you will need to stop or adapt it. I need to? for you?
pyro

Big Wall climber
Calabasas
Dec 12, 2016 - 07:57am PT
whatever, I hope it burns well...

lol.,.,nice on liner
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Dec 12, 2016 - 08:12am PT
do you understand the reference Pyro?
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Dec 12, 2016 - 08:29am PT
Ed Hartouni posted

By contrast CO2 lingers in the atmosphere for centuries. So the gas acts as a "control knob" that sets the level of water vapor

If CO2 lingers in the atmosphere for centuries, what would it take to cause atmospheric CO2 levels to decline? How much would we need to reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions to reverse the current trend? Would we need to reduce current emissions by 50%? 90%? How long would it take for A-CO2 to start falling?

I'm not asking for an in-depth explanation. Just a ball park figure.

What I'm wondering about is whether or not dramatic reductions in emissions would result in lowered A-CO2 levels in our lifetimes.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Dec 12, 2016 - 08:38am PT
trapping and injecting atmospheric CO2 into reservoirs in the Earth could help to speed up reduction ET. this technique is used in hydrocarbon reservoir stimulation to sip up the last recoverable dregs of the tarry milkshake and allows some producers to at least claim net carbon neutrality.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 12, 2016 - 09:03am PT
What I'm wondering about is whether or not dramatic reductions in emissions would result in lowered A-CO2 levels in our lifetimes.

I don't believe that we could expect a lower CO2 level in our lifetimes.


However, you can see that increasing plant biomass might be an avenue towards reduction. Unfortunately, one of the human activities responsible for increased CO2 levels is the decrease in that same biomass, the clearing of forests, etc. for agriculture, and the agricultural process of getting rid of the unused portion of the crop (in the least expensive way, burning).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_cycle

and

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deforestation

Between 2000 and 2012, 2.3 million square kilometres (890,000 square miles) of forests around the world were cut down.[11] As a result of deforestation, only 6.2 million square kilometres (2.4 million square miles) remain of the original 16 million square kilometres (6 million square miles) of forest that formerly covered the Earth.[11]
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 12, 2016 - 10:21am PT
The earth has "greened" (plant life including trees increasingly encroaching into previous low habitable areas) 12% over the satellite Era. Any legitamate study of deforestation should account for this, increased urban human planted greenery, and tree farms etc in there calculation of forest loss. Not saying it totally makes up for the alleged forest loss cited by Ed above, but it does significantly reduce his dire numbers. Additionally, this hundreds of years of CO2 atmospheric residence time is a bunch of hooey. Recent studies show residence time in the 5-7 year range.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Dec 12, 2016 - 10:38am PT
The earth has "greened" 12% over the satellite Era....plant life including trees increasingly encroaching into previous low habitable areas

Shifting of species and vegetation zones northwards and upwards in elevation has already been observed.

I wonder why they might move north and up?








Source: Agnes and Hufnagel in Applied Ecology said it was so. Seems like a legit source to me. Let's hear why it's not at all trustworthy, RS.
pyro

Big Wall climber
Calabasas
Dec 12, 2016 - 11:24am PT
ed you better save all this data before TRUMP has it erased.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Dec 12, 2016 - 11:45am PT
The purpose of the different projections for climate change is mostly to model differing amounts of CO2.
One way that has been categorized is RCP Representative_Concentration_Pathways
Which are different levels of added radiation forcing in W/m2
Often these are categorized into 4 bands in order to simplify:
RCP 2.5
RCP 4.5
RCP 6.5
RCP 8.5

There is no one magic failsafe point. The impacts become more and more extreme with higher GHGs and additional net radiation.
Most of the charts showing future temperature, sea level, ocean ph, include these different amounts of GHG emissions, and make the effects obvious for continuing to do very little about reducing GHG emissions.

Right now we are still on the path towards RCP 8-8.5, which means society doing very little to minimize GHGs and the effects are far more disastrous and net costly than RCP4.5 We are already past stopping at RCP 2.5, which might have been roughly equivalent to the call to stop CO2 at 350ppm a couple years ago; - that ship has sailed. Since it takes decades to shift towards greener energy, it is not difficult to see where we will be in 20 years. C02 will keep rising at nearly it's current pace for some time, but where it goes in the 20-100 year timeframe is still completely open to action, if our selfish leaders could see past the next quarterly report.

as I posted 2 years ago:
http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=970221&msg=2523348#msg2523348

and last spring

http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=2780073&msg=2781335#msg2781335


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways#/media/File:All_forcing_agents_CO2_equivalent_concentration.png

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways

http://www.skepticalscience.com/rcp.php?t=3

>> Four Representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Four RCPs…produced from IAM scenarios available in the published literature: one high pathway for which radiative forcing reaches >8.5 W/m2 by 2100 and continues to rise for some amount of time; two intermediate “stabilization pathways” in which radiative forcing is stabilized at approximately 6 W/m2 and 4.5 W/m2 after 2100; and one pathway where radiative forcing peaks at approximately 3 W/m2 before 2100 and then declines. These scenarios include time paths for emissions and concentrations of the full suite of GHGs and aerosols and chemically active gases, as well as land use/land cover…


Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Dec 12, 2016 - 11:52am PT
More explanation of RCP scenarios
https://medium.com/@davidfurphy/what-on-earth-is-an-rcp-bbb206ddee26#.vlex1ybjp

Future effects will be costly.

http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2016/04/antarctic-melting-to-boost-sea-levels-by-2100/

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2016-05/m-cei050216.php

August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Dec 12, 2016 - 12:17pm PT
If CO2 lingers in the atmosphere for centuries, what would it take to cause atmospheric CO2 levels to decline? How much would we need to reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions to reverse the current trend? Would we need to reduce current emissions by 50%? 90%? How long would it take for A-CO2 to start falling?

I'm not asking for an in-depth explanation. Just a ball park figure.

What I'm wondering about is whether or not dramatic reductions in emissions would result in lowered A-CO2 levels in our lifetimes.

Those are two really different things. The trend is ever increasing CO2. If we could slow the rise in CO2, that would leave future generations better off versus a business as usual scenario.

Outside of civilization collapse, I don't see any way atmospheric CO2 levels are going to start dropping in the next few decades. I guess you can't absolutely rule out some technological breakthrough that makes it economic and pragmatic to scrub CO2 out of the air. Personally, I wouldn't bet my planet on it.
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Dec 12, 2016 - 07:03pm PT
The earth has "greened" (plant life including trees increasingly encroaching into previous low habitable areas) 12% over the satellite Era. Any legitamate study of deforestation should account for this, increased urban human planted greenery, and tree farms etc in there calculation of forest loss. Not saying it totally makes up for the alleged forest loss cited by Ed above, but it does significantly reduce his dire numbers. Additionally, this hundreds of years of CO2 atmospheric residence time is a bunch of hooey. Recent studies show residence time in the 5-7 year range.

Never mind what Ed says. He's a f*#king elitist. He will continue to believe that his facts and scientific method should be given more weight than repeated opinions that align with your worldview.

Curt
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 12, 2016 - 07:07pm PT
rick wrote:
The earth has "greened" (plant life including trees increasingly encroaching into previous low habitable areas) 12% over the satellite Era.


no citation, my guess he is either making it up, or taking it off some strange blog some place.

Additionally, this hundreds of years of CO2 atmospheric residence time is a bunch of hooey. Recent studies show residence time in the 5-7 year range.


once again, no reference to "recent studies," so in the absence of a citation(s), I presume rick is also making this up, misunderstood the source, or is referring to a blog.

this is rick's MO, something he has consistently done in the past: he states as fact very sketchy sources, so sketchy that he wouldn't provide the reference to the sources.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 12, 2016 - 07:09pm PT
ed you better save all this data before TRUMP has it erased.

it will not be "erased."

Studly

Trad climber
WA
Dec 12, 2016 - 07:11pm PT

If John Denver was still around and ran for President, what kind of world would we be living in? A better one I think..

[Click to View YouTube Video]
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Dec 12, 2016 - 07:38pm PT
https://eos.org/articles/current-carbon-emissions-unprecedented-in-66-million-years

From a geologic perspective, the important point is not that CO2 levels were much higher throughout most of earth history, it is the recent rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 that is unprecedented. How the planet is adjusting to this rapid CO2 flux is being played out in slow motion in a broad range of environments from alpine to ocean. We're in uncharted waters folks.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 12, 2016 - 07:53pm PT
the problem is the "Pollution Game" has a Nash equilibrium that has all the players withholding action. (this is an analysis in the spirit of the "Prisoners' Dilemma").

In this "game" all the players have a choice to make, if they act together, putting in some small of resource, they will avoid the outcome of inaction. The even when the cost of the outcome due to inaction is some very large number, say 10 times the cost of mitigation, the Nash equilibrium is that no one pays the mitigating costs.

The implication is that a "free market" system will not take advantage of early action and, instead differ to that later time when the costs are much higher. This is the tone of the discussion on this thread, DMT is an example of a game player, and he is absolutely correct, or at least acting in his self interest, as Nash would have him, he has divined the correct strategy.

It is why government intervention, and the global cooperation of governments, will be required to alter the "free market" and act early.

Interestingly, we don't know if there is a solution if we wait, no matter the costs. It is that risk that we are looking at.

the ricks of the say: nothing is happening, what is happening cannot be changed by us, what is happening is no big deal, we can fix anything...

but, of course, this analysis is rather simplistic, and is certainly biased in a way that has the ricks' self interest squarely central. In other words, it isn't an analysis at all, just a reaction to a perceived threat now, and ignoring the later, much larger threat.


tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Dec 12, 2016 - 10:04pm PT
moral prudence in the form of emissions reduction is a 1st world luxury...

http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2016/12/01/503628893/amid-economic-crisis-mongolians-risk-their-lives-for-do-it-yourself-mining

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 12, 2016 - 10:28pm PT
You guys on the other side of this debate are just negativists constantly handwringing over the nightmares induced by your malthusian delusions. You should know better by now. Recent history has disproved the dire predictions of at least three of your seers predictions. We have the population bomb with its projections of mass starvation, peak oil with its scheduled rapid decline by 1970, and finally your current little nightmare of CAGW, which some of your leading prognosticators having already called for an ice free arctic, an epic collapse of the antarctic ice shelves, and the meltdown of Greenland . Also, who can forget the blessed "models" at the core of your sick religion deviating ever farther from reality. Can't you guys ever learn?

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 12, 2016 - 11:05pm PT
hey rick,
you're singing a tired song...

...why not post up some citations.... or are my suspicions correct?

you got nothing.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 12, 2016 - 11:23pm PT
Why save the ice Robert? Soon enough the current brief interstadial will end and the continental ice sheets will once again grind the landscape. Enjoy the warmth while you can.

The whole 4' high stack is committed to poor memory Ed. It's all in there somewhere amongst the disorganization.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 13, 2016 - 01:20am PT
nice story, rick...
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Dec 13, 2016 - 03:55am PT
Robert, the problem with individual observations, unverified by anyone else, is very subject to bias.

One could have gone to NYC for the last 100 summers in a row, and state upon that definitive proof, that flooding of NYC subways by a superstorm is a liberal lunacy.


Emissions reduction involves the reduction of 1st world luxury.

I really disagree with that. Here in LA, we have had dramatic reduction in air emissions, such that air that used to be so thick you could cut, was today bright and clean, in spite of a winter thermal layer. I doubt that you could make a reasonable claim that the "luxury" of the LA lifestyle has greatly declined in the last 50 years while this happened.

I don't dispute that it is POSSIBLE to attack emissions by a reduction in luxury. Probably, some of that would be good for us.

For example, gas lawn mowers put out about the same amount of air pollution in an hour of running, as a modern car does in an entire year. If those were replaced over time with electric mowers, whose sources of power can be relatively non-polluting sources, this could be largely eliminated. Get a long cord. Is that really a significant loss of luxury? Same dynamics of leaf blowers.

I'd like to see them banned from sale in LA. After, say, 5 years, banned from use. Probably the equivalent of a million cars off the road....without touching your Hummer. Your yard looks the same.
(in fact, get rid of the damn water-wasting grass!)
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Dec 13, 2016 - 04:14am PT
We have the population bomb with its projections of mass starvation

You are really off on this one. Your facts are wrong, and your logic is wrong.

We HAVE had huge population growths.
We have had large starvation events. (I think of Ethiopia, and the boxes of Baby Ruths the conservatives sent)

BUT BECAUSE WE RECOGNIZED the dangers, we did something about it, by huge investments in crop science and genetics, and widespread dispersion of that knowledge and expertise world-wide.

We averted the worst of it by our actions!

We have made massive advances in birth control technology, and made it available world-wide, with a result of MASSIVE reduction in birth rates, world-wide, that will cause us to reach a stable population by 2100 or so.

Did doing those things destroy our economy or culture? NO! If anything, it enhanced both.

EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Dec 13, 2016 - 05:49am PT
In other words, it isn't an analysis at all, just a reaction to a perceived threat now, and ignoring the later, much larger threat.

Exactly. Asking everyone in industrialized nations and most in emerging economies to make sacrifices for the rest of their lives to possibly help future generations is a tough sell. It's an especially hard sell in this country, where much of the population already feels entitled to things that don't deserve.
Fat Dad

Trad climber
Los Angeles, CA
Dec 13, 2016 - 09:18am PT
hey rick,
you're singing a tired song...

...why not post up some citations.... or are my suspicions correct?

you got nothing
We all know this. Even Rick knows this. He's just playing the role of the recalcitrant teenager thumbing his nose at the world.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Dec 13, 2016 - 10:35am PT
Recommended reading...
Earth’s Fickle Climate: Lessons Learned From Deep-Time Ice Ages

We currently live in an “icehouse” — a climate in which large continental ice sheets exist, in this case at both poles. The onset of this icehouse began in Antarctica 34 million years ago and in the Arctic about 2 million years ago. The latter stages of human evolution occurred in this bipolar icehouse, and human civilization unfolded during the relatively stable, most recent interglacial phase of this icehouse (the glacial times are popularly known as ice ages). This particular climate state, however, represents only a fraction of 1 percent of Earth’s history. Thus, humans evolved during, and are adapted to, an atypical climate state.


But although we technically live in an icehouse, we may be embarking on a one-way voyage into a permanently deglaciated greenhouse. To grasp what may be in store for the planet, we can look at the “deep-time” geologic record, which archives a nearly-billion-year-long record of several icehouses. Each of these icehouse periods was associated with abrupt climate change over a range of timescales, and each provides insight into the climatically fickle transitions from icehouse to greenhouse states.
http://www.geotimes.org/mar06/feature_deeptimeiceages.html
Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Dec 13, 2016 - 10:44am PT
Intense, Malmute. Thanks for the post. Melting glaciers don't lie. I just don't see how this is going to be turned around, however. People really aren't concerned, at least not to the level of actually changing their lives. Al Gore has a huge, obscenely wasteful mansion when he has the money to show us how to do things differently. That guy could have the most recycled, re-purposed, green, carbon-freaking-neutral place on earth! But he don't. I think we'll all have brace ourselves for more melting ice, rising seas, etc. Should be interesting at least.

@T-Tradster: Great article. One discouraging quote: "99.96 percent of Earth’s climate behavior remains virtually unexplored."

BAd
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Dec 13, 2016 - 11:55am PT
Only a couple of years ago, some mainstream skeptics were still saying that the planet hadn’t warmed since the late 1990s, or that carbon dioxide wasn’t the main cause of any warming actually observed.

Which mainstream skeptics were making those claims? I'm especially interested on the ones who admitted their views were wrong.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 13, 2016 - 01:27pm PT
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 13, 2016 - 01:45pm PT
That's a 1 ton hauling a trailer with two snow machines in 4 wheel Robert.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Dec 13, 2016 - 02:40pm PT
Let's settle this once and for all. You guys on the skeptical side can put your best debate team together, and I'll suggest one for our side. I'll go first.

Batting first in my lineup is Ed Hartouni. He's proved himself on this thread as someone with a good on-base average, solid.
Second; Isaac Asimov - I always liked his Foundation Trilogy.
Third; Carl Sagan - I'm not a big fan of turtlenecks, but it's hard to come up with a more sincere smart guy.
For clean-up, I'm going to go with Elon Musk. He's kind of mixture of Thomas Edison and Nikola Tesla with a little Rockefeller thrown in.
Batting fifth; Neil deGrasse Tyson. See description for Sagan.
Sixth up; Stephen Hawking - Considering that he might have the highest IQ of the bunch, I have him here because this subject only occupies about 0.01 percent of his attention.
Batting seventh; David Suzuki. Smart guy, well-spoken, great hair for an old guy.
Batting eight; Beyoncé - I'm thinking that I would like to watch her walk up to the plate.
Rounding out my lineup, Al Gore - for no particular reason.

Your lineup?
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Dec 13, 2016 - 07:13pm PT
Denier scientists:
Richard Lindzen (Cato employee)
proven wrong about every climate denial he ever made:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/jan/06/climate-change-climate-change-scepticism

https://www.skepticalscience.com/skeptic_Richard_Lindzen.htm


Two other "skeptics" also with right wing funding are Christy and Spencer.
Yet their own data shows an increase of about 0.5 C over 36 years, which is 0.14 C per decade.
http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2016/October/tlt_update_bar_102016.png

which is nearly the same linearized trend as Gistemp from NASA, whose graph shows an increase of about .85 C over the last 56 years, which is 0.15 C per decade.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

and about the same trend as shown at
http://woodfortrees.org/
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/

https://www.skepticalscience.com/skeptic_John_Christy.htm
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Roy_Spencer
http://www.desmogblog.com/roy-spencer
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Dec 13, 2016 - 07:30pm PT
Sumner...Why don't you just admit it...You're a pussy- whipped wanna -be yuppy who's only self-gratification comes from killing wildlife , bragging about climbing and sawing 2x6's in half with a dull blade..,It's all about you , Rush Limbaugh , and whatever the next rich as#@&%e client tells you to believe..I'm sick of your whiny belly aching...Grow a pair...
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 13, 2016 - 07:56pm PT
Recent history has disproved the dire predictions of at least three of your seers predictions. We have the population bomb with its projections of mass starvation, peak oil with its scheduled rapid decline by 1970...

you forgot another one, actually a big one... in 1947-1949 the raging debate was disarming after the war, in particular, whether or not the Soviets posed an existential threat to the USA.

On the basis of the risk that we would have to wage a WWIII, the USA embarked on a massive arms race that lasted about 30 years, and nearly bankrupted the USA, it did the Soviet Union.

But WWIII never happened.

Using your logic, rick, we can conclude that that arms race was a total waste of taxpayers dollars, that we should never have listened to those "negative" voices screaming that we were in grave danger.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 13, 2016 - 08:19pm PT
Probably not Ed, although I wasn't there and not privy to intelligence on that issue. It did, however as you note, vanquish our greatest enemy of the latter half of the 20th century without exchanging so much as a direct shot-proxy conflicts excluded.

Now as far as your situation and the new incoming political reality. Aren't you ready for retirement anyway. If not I'm sure the energy department could actually use a nuclear physicist who's been involved with the weapons stockpile, researched nuclear energy, has never published a single AGW paper nor been on a taxpayer payed vacation to the cop parties.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Dec 13, 2016 - 08:41pm PT
Rick has no logic , just paranoia and perceived loss of personal freedom , a by-product of the corporate sponsored brain washing that keeps Rick and other wanna - be tough guys in a constant state of fear while subserviant to the corporate needs of raping the planet for short term profits at the expense of the common good ...Common sense policy's that benefit the masses , affordable health care , clean air , safe food and water are villianized in an attemp to con these tough guys into voting against their best interest... Get tough...
F

climber
away from the ground
Dec 13, 2016 - 09:09pm PT
I went skiing today.
Therefore AGW is a crock.
That about covers it.
Just ignore what's happening in Shismaref and Kivalina. Those aren't even real towns, right Rick?
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 13, 2016 - 09:31pm PT
That's right F. It was just our government imposing western civilization on nomadic natives under the banner of liberal good works. The natives themselves knew better than to put permanent habitation on the shifting sands of storm ravaged shorelines and barrier islands. Don't blame them for accepting a handout, blame the fools insisting on it.

It shouldn't stop Robert, but the studies must shift to fully documenting natural physical agents of change with a focus towards resilient engineering and long term adaptation. No more free rides for incompetents pushing criminal extremist schemes.




Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 14, 2016 - 12:00am PT
...the studies must shift to fully documenting natural physical agents of change...

they do "fully document" all aspects of the change, the largest contemporary agent being human activity...

eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Dec 14, 2016 - 04:12am PT
Milton Keynes and David Rand would show that everyone in your line-up is irrelevant. They know that the 'scientific evidence', and the IQ-glamour-cred of the experts, aren't even the issues anymore.

Sheesh, tough crowd. I guess I could have picked some of the team from the actual climate scientist pool, which we all know constitutes 97 to 99% of them, but I didn't think anybody would know their names.

By the way, of course the scientific evidence matters. Much of what the climate scientists do with that evidence is use it in predictive models.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Dec 14, 2016 - 07:24am PT
So, I guess I could change out Al Gore for scientist #91 in Malemute's list - Oppenheimer - cause I like the name.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Dec 14, 2016 - 09:09am PT
In the wake of the Trump transition team request that DOE name names of climate scientists...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/12/09/trump-transition-team-for-energy-department-seeks-names-of-employees-involved-in-climate-meetings/?tid=a_inl&utm_term=.67f01ec7b066

...which DOE rejected...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/12/13/energy-dept-rejects-trumps-request-to-name-climate-change-workers-who-remain-worried/?utm_term=.b440912dcd00


...scientists conducted a public protest to defend the validity of science at AGU in San Francisco yesterday.


Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Dec 14, 2016 - 09:40am PT
Hey! I know #94!!
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 15, 2016 - 08:36pm PT
TTradster posted a link to a very interesting paper that I have just gotten around to reading:

NATURE GEOSCIENCE, VOL 9, APRIL 2016, page 325
DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2681

Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented during the past 66 million years


Richard E. Zeebe, Andy Ridgwell and James C. Zachos

Abstract
Carbon release rates from anthropogenic sources reached a record high of 10 Pg C/yr in 2014. Geologic analogues from past transient climate changes could provide invaluable constraints on the response of the climate system to such perturbations, but only if the associated carbon release rates can be reliably reconstructed. The Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is known at present to have the highest carbon release rates of the past 66 million years, but robust estimates of the initial rate and onset duration are hindered by uncertainties in age models. Here we introduce a new method to extract rates of change from a sedimentary record based on the relative timing of climate and carbon cycle changes, without the need for an age model. We apply this method to stable carbon and oxygen isotope records from the New Jersey shelf using timeseries analysis and carbon cycle–climate modelling.We calculate that the initial carbon release during the onset of the PETM occurred over at least 4,000 years. This constrains the maximum sustained PETM carbon release rate to less than 1.1 Pg C/yr. We conclude that, given currently available records, the present anthropogenic carbon release rate is unprecedented during the past 66 million years. We suggest that such a ‘no-analogue’ state represents a fundamental challenge in constraining future climate projections. Also, future ecosystem disruptions are likely to exceed the relatively limited extinctions observed at the PETM.


As rapid reductions in anthropogenic carbon emissions (1) seem increasingly unlikely in the near future, forecasting the Earth system's response to ever-increasing emission rates has become a high-priority focus of climate research. Because climate model simulations and projections have large uncertainties--often due to the uncertain strength of feedbacks (2)--geologic analogues from past climate events are invaluable in understanding the impacts ofmassive carbon release on the Earth system (3,4). The fastest known, massive carbon release throughout the Cenozoic (past 66Myr) occurred at the onset of the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (~56Myr ago; refs 5-9). The PETM was associated with a ~5K surface temperature warming and an estimated total carbon release somewhere between current assessments of fossil fuel reserves (1,000-2,000 Pg C) and resources (~3,000-13,500 Pg C; refs 10,11). Although the PETM is widely considered the best analogue for present/future carbon release, the timescale of its onset, and hence the initial carbon release rate, have hitherto remained largely unconstrained. Determining the release rate is critical, however, if we are to draw future inferences from observed climate, ecosystem and ocean chemistry changes during the PETM (refs 3,7,8,12,13). If anthropogenic emissions rates have no analogue in Earth's recent history, then unforeseeable future responses of the climate system are possible.
.
.
.
The initial carbon release during the PETM onset thus occurred over at least 4,000 yr. Using estimates of 2,500-4,500 Pg C for the initial carbon release, the maximum sustained PETM carbon release rate was therefore 0.6-1.1 Pg C/yr. Given currently available palaeorecords, we conclude that the present anthropogenic carbon release rate (~10 Pg C/yr) is unprecedented during the Cenozoic (past 66Myr). Possible known consequences of the rapid man-made carbon emissions have been extensively discussed elsewhere (2,30,34,35). Regarding impacts on ecosystems, the present/future rate of climate change and ocean acidification (12,36,37) is too fast for many species to adapt (38), which is likely to result in widespread future extinctions in marine and terrestrial environments that will substantially exceed those at the PETM (ref. 13). Given that the current rate of carbon release is unprecedented throughout the Cenozoic, we have effectively entered an era of a no-analogue state, which represents a fundamental challenge to constraining future climate projections.

tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Dec 15, 2016 - 10:27pm PT
We're headed back to the Eocene....

World Without Ice
http://www.es.ucsc.edu/~jzachos/pubs/Hothouse%20Earth.pdf


Summary Points (McInerney and Wing, 2011)

http://pages.geo.wvu.edu/~kammer/g231/PETM.pdf

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, which took place 56 Mya and lasted for 200 ka, stands as the most dramatic geological confirmation of greenhouse theory—increased CO2 in the atmosphere warmed Earth's surface.

The large release of organic, 13C-depleted carbon caused a global carbon isotopic excursion, widespread deep-ocean acidification, and carbonate dissolution.

Carbon was later removed from the abiotic pool on a timescale of 100 ky, primarily through silicate weathering and eventual precipitation of carbonate in the ocean and/or uptake by the biosphere and subsequent burial as organic carbon. CO2+ H20 = H2CO3 weathers silicates, releases Ca+2+ HCO3-= CaCO3+ H+ forms carbonate

Warming associated with the carbon release implies approximately two doublings of atmospheric pCO2unless climate sensitivity was significantly different during the Paleogene.

Although there was a major extinction of benthic foraminifera, most groups of organisms did not suffer mass extinction.

Geographic distributions of most kinds of organisms were radically rearranged by 5–8°C of warming, with tropical forms moving poleward in both marine and terrestrial realms.

Rapid morphological change occurred in both marine and terrestrial lineages, suggesting that organisms adjusted to climate change through evolution as well as dispersal and local extirpation. Where best understood, these evolutionary changes appear to be responses to nutrient and/or food limitation.

Research on the PETM and other intervals of rapid global change has been driven by the idea that they provide geological parallels to future anthropogenic warming, but much remains to be done to gain information that can be acted on.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Dec 18, 2016 - 05:17pm PT
I have a great deal of respect for Chris Hedges...one of the few remaining honest journalists.

Regardless what you think of Jerry Brown, he gave an inspirational speech this week at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting in SF where he set the stage for a showdown between the Trump administration and California RE Climate Science.

http://www.theatlantic.com/notes/2016/12/this-is-what-the-resistance-sounds-like/510899/

At ~ 10min:30sec If Trump turns off the satellites [that monitor global atmospheric temerature], California will launch their own damn satellites.

[Click to View YouTube Video]
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Dec 18, 2016 - 06:03pm PT
What a great speech. Not a polished, wordsmith-type----but a clear, heartfelt type. Brown has been great for Calif.
monolith

climber
state of being
Dec 18, 2016 - 06:40pm PT
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Dec 18, 2016 - 07:22pm PT
If only Ahnold was here to lower our car registration fees...
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Dec 18, 2016 - 09:40pm PT
One technology for reducing future atmospheric carbon levels is CO2 Capture & Geologic Sequestration...

Norway has been operating a CO2 sequestration demonstration project in the North Sea since the late 1990s where they inject about 0.85 million tons of CO2 annually into a saline sandstone aquifer at a depth of 2,625-3,610 ft below sea level. The sandstone reservoir is overlain by a 2,430 ft thick gas-tight caprock. As of June 2016, they have sequestered about 16.2 million tons of CO2.

https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/projects/sleipner%C2%A0co2-storage-project

Potential geologic repositories for CO2 sequestration exist in all the major on shore and off shore sedimentary basins on the planet. Of course, there are risks associated with injecting any gas or fluid into certain geologic environments, e.g., trigger earthquakes, contaminate groundwater of beneficial use. For more info on this technology here is a link to the 2015 National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) Carbon Storage Atlas.

https://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Coal/carbon-storage/atlasv/ATLAS-V-2015.pdf

Different technologies contribute to meeting the target of 50% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050.

limpingcrab

Trad climber
the middle of CA
Dec 18, 2016 - 11:14pm PT
Haven't read the whole thread, but many people aren't concerned because in the information age you can believe whatever you want and someone will back you.

A search might lead you to an article saying the majority of scientists are skeptical of climate change http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2013/02/13/peer-reviewed-survey-finds-majority-of-scientists-skeptical-of-global-warming-crisis/#61d8ae9d171b

And your next search might lead you to a documentary saying that everyone knows about it and you should be scared enough to do something http://www.beforetheflood.com/

So without going out of your way and devoting a ton of time to learning about the data and its sources, how can anyone know what to be concerned about? The freedom to say what you want and the freedom to read what you want might make it harder, rather than easier, to find the truth.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 19, 2016 - 12:13am PT
I don't know about truth,

but I do know a lot of climate scientists and I can ask them questions... actually there are a lot who hang out here, they're climbers too...

I also am able to read the climate science literature, which I do in my "spare time," that might not be possible either for most... so then you'd have to read in the popular "press."

Unfortunately, this press has been the subject of withering criticism from various political factions and seems to not be considered authoritative, which is perhaps a very bad occurrence.

Read, for instance,
Charlie Sykes on Where the Right Went Wrong
in today's NYTimes...
"One staple of every radio talk show was, of course, the bias of the mainstream media. This was, indeed, a target-rich environment. But as we learned this year, we had succeeded in persuading our audiences to ignore and discount any information from the mainstream media. Over time, we’d succeeded in delegitimizing the media altogether — all the normal guideposts were down, the referees discredited.

That left a void that we conservatives failed to fill...

We destroyed our own immunity to fake news, while empowering the worst and most reckless voices on the right.

This was not mere naïveté. It was also a moral failure, one that now lies at the heart of the conservative movement..."

If you do not "believe" the mainstream media, it will be difficult to "know what to be concerned about"

Whatever you read, and you should read it all, you can ask skeptical questions about both the content of what you read AND the people writing it... and ask questions of experts and even people here.

The various professional societies have web pages dedicated to explaining climate change at different technical levels...

The American Institute of Physics web page:
http://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm
has such a description and many links to other sources.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Dec 19, 2016 - 07:32am PT
In the late 1950s, the village was relocated from Old Kealavik ten miles away to its present location to escape flooding.
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Dec 19, 2016 - 07:50am PT
On our coast, the houses right on the ocean - the ones where the waves hit the living room windows during stormy weather - are a hell of a lot more expensive than the houses just right across the street inland. Only a slight rise in sea level, and they're totally screwed, yet they are willing to pay a multi-million dollar premium for the property.

What do the money guys know that scientists don't?
Brandon-

climber
The Granite State.
Dec 19, 2016 - 07:53am PT
Having lots of money in no way means that you're 'smart'. It just means that you have a lot of money.
rbord

Boulder climber
atlanta
Dec 19, 2016 - 09:47am PT
The greater information measures the lesser information, not the other way around. The only way for us to measure that greater information is for us to actually learn greater information.

But evolution gave us a shortcut. We just believe that we have the greater information - that whatever it is that we believe is true is actually true - that eg we understand climate science better than the climate scientists.

And the law of small numbers allows us to form and keep cogent "understandings" of reality (and the positive psychology of believing that we understand) without having to do all that work of resolving all the conflicting information.

Why do you think Trump doesn't like to receive all those briefings? It interferes with his small numbers understanding of reality.

The better adapted understanding processes win in the end, just like the better adapted species does. So far that's been us and our way of understanding, but the game's not over yet.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 19, 2016 - 10:07am PT
What do the money guys know that scientists don't?

that future buyers are likely not to know about what the scientists know, and will buy the land from them at even more inflated prices...

...you are implying that the "money guys" are rational? Certainly the Great Recession indicates they are not, the housing bubble was totally irrational, yet the "money guys" kept playing.

ydpl8s

Trad climber
Santa Monica, California
Dec 19, 2016 - 10:16am PT
They are rational in so far as, taking that stance will make them more money. That kind of rationale has been screwing the little guy for millenia.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 19, 2016 - 01:45pm PT
Good retort DMT.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Dec 19, 2016 - 03:45pm PT
I just caught up on this thread....

rich people buy expensive homes on the beach + scientists have 401Ks = climate science is a hoax ;-)
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Dec 19, 2016 - 04:11pm PT
Anyone who buys land very near sealevel is gambling that they will enjoy it for long enough to get their money's worth before the negatives become significant.
If sealevel continues to rise at only the recent rate of 3mm/year, that is one foot in 100 years, mostly a problem for future generations.

Or the average rate could triple or quadruple to hit 1 meter of rise by 2100, causing problems much sooner. Sea level rise is the most delayed of various climate indicators, continuing to rise for hundreds of years under the present course. So it's both an amount and a timing question.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/03/30/antarctic-loss-could-double-expected-sea-level-rise-by-2100-scientists-say/?utm_term=.775f4c323066

2013 http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/unfccc/cop19/3_gregory13sbsta.pdf
https://sealevel.nasa.gov/understanding-sea-level/projections/empirical-projections

Of course in some areas like California, coastal cliffs were already eroding even before much sea level rise. Homeowners in the past generally were allowed to build million dollar sea walls, but since the coastal commission does not easily approve anymore, it's already a short term gamble for many.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Dec 19, 2016 - 05:20pm PT
"gambling" is the operative word...

Long term sea level rise is only one risk factor. That risk analysis probably should include the near term risk to beachfront property due to the increase in Category 4 & 5 Hurricane frequency and associated "Storm Surge" along with the long term risk attributed to rising Sea Level.

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/hurricanes-and-climate-change.html#references

Hurricane Matthew eroded an estimated 100,000 cu yards of sand from Hilton Head. Hilton Head is a Barrier Island...a transient environment on a geologic time scale formed by the transport of sand via coastal currents and the occasional redistribution via giant hurricanes. I doubt these risk factors were considered when many of the folks invested in Hilton Head property.

https://apnews.com/fdf12b6a86a24b53a42cd72d5a8818d8/Hilton-Head-Island-homes-still-at-risk-after-hurricane
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Dec 19, 2016 - 05:45pm PT
On our coast, the houses right on the ocean - the ones where the waves hit the living room windows during stormy weather - are a hell of a lot more expensive than the houses just right across the street inland. Only a slight rise in sea level, and they're totally screwed, yet they are willing to pay a multi-million dollar premium for the property.

What do the money guys know that scientists don't?

They know that with gov't-subsidized insurance, it is a gamble that is guaranteed.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/Insurance/story?id=94181

Taxpayers Get Soaked by Government's Flood Insurance
By JOHN STOSSEL Sept. 20

As you watch those pictures of houses under assault from Hurricane Isabel, doesn't it make you wonder: Why do people build their homes so close to the water? They must have known a hurricane might do this. Why would they take such a foolish risk?

California

Well, people take the risk, because our government encourages us to take it. I know all about this, because I did it myself.

In 1980, I bought some beachfront property on Long Island, N.Y., and built a house there. It was a big investment for me. The down payment took just about all of my savings, and I knew what can happen to people who build on the edges of oceans. But I took the risk because the government made me a promise.

An Offer Too Good to Refuse

The promise was national flood insurance. It made my house and my neighbors' homes possible. After all, no bank will give you a mortgage unless you have insurance.

Private insurance companies were reluctant to sell insurance to those of us who build on the edges of oceans, and were they to offer it, they'd charge an arm and a leg to cover the risk. But this wasn't a problem for me, because you offered to insure my house. I know you didn't do it personally, but you, as a taxpayer, are the guarantee behind federal flood insurance. Should a big storm wipe out half the coast, you'll cover our losses — up to a quarter-million dollars. Thanks — we appreciate it — but what a dumb policy.

The subsidized insurance goes to affluent homeowners on both coasts — from Malibu Beach, where movie stars live, to Kennebunkport where the Bush family has a vacation home, to Hyannisport, where the Kennedy family has a summer home, to the Hamptons, where I bought my house.

The insurance premiums were a bargain. The most I ever paid was a few hundred dollars. Federal actuaries say if the insurance were realistically priced, it would cost thousands of dollars. Why should the government guarantee water's-edge insurance? Why should the government be in this business at all?

A decade ago I spoke with James Lee Witt, who ran FEMA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, for President Clinton. FEMA's current director is busy with this week's hurricane, but his agency's policy hasn't changed much, so let's look again at the discussion I had with Witt.

Witt told me he thinks the flood insurance saves federal tax dollars. "If this insurance wasn't there, OK, then people would be building in those areas anyway, OK? Then it would cost the American taxpayers more dollars if a disaster hit that community and destroyed it," he said.

He said it's cheaper than offering additional disaster relief.

Should We Subsidize Insurance for Drunk Drivers?

That's government logic for you. Since we always spent huge amounts of taxpayer money bailing out people with disaster relief, politicians 35 years ago said, why don't we try to recover some of that money by selling flood insurance?

As so often happens, the program had unintended consequences. The cheap insurance encouraged more people to build on the beach, so the insurance risk is now huge. Today, $645 billion in property is guaranteed by Uncle Sam.

Geologist Orrin Pilkey at Duke University says this policy is simply "stupid." Pilkey has been one of the most persistent critics of the government's policies. He says both disaster relief and federal flood insurance just encourage people to stay in harm's way.

"We've got to get around this 'sympathy at all costs' for people who are suffering from natural disasters," Pilkey said.

Witt disagreed. He said, "Should we just walk away and say, 'We're not going to help you'?"

If I were a drunken driver who kept wrecking my car, should there be federal car insurance to make sure I have cheap car insurance?

Washed Away

Witt pointed out that the government did require me to put my house on stilts. That was a good thing because 16 years ago, most of my beach just washed away. It wasn't even a hurricane, just three days of big surf and suddenly I didn't have waterfront property. I was over the water. Still, the house survived because of the stilts, and what a view I had then.

Uncle Sam didn't even raise my insurance premiums. In fact, he spent millions more of your tax dollars to rebuild my beach. Up and down the coast, the Army Corps of Engineers dumped sand on hundreds of beaches.

This seems like a dumb policy too, since a study of replenishment projects found the new sand usually washes away within five years. But the government does it anyway — and you pay for it.

I asked Professor Pilkey what he thought of people like me who build houses on beaches? "I think you're a vandal and extremely costly to our society," he said.

A few years ago, I got a call from a friend. 'Happy New Year,' he said, 'your house is gone.' And it was. During a fairly ordinary storm, the ocean just dug up the sand under the pilings and took the whole house away.

There it was the next day on the front page of the newspaper. I'd always wanted to make front page news, but not like this. It was an upsetting loss for me, but financially, I made out fine. National flood insurance paid for the house and its contents. I could rebuild my house, and the government would insure me again — and again. I didn't rebuild. I'd learned my lesson; I sold what was left of my land. But the outrage is that federal flood insurance exists at all. There is a quarter-million-dollar limit on each payment, and as long as I build my house in accordance with zoning laws and ordinances, there is no limit on how many times the government will pay if a house keeps washing away.

Give Me a Break.
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Dec 19, 2016 - 07:27pm PT
". That risk analysis probably should include the near term risk to beachfront property due to the increase in Category 4 & 5 Hurricane frequency and associated "Storm Surge" along with the long term risk attributed to rising Sea Level."

The data says something different. NOAA themselves says there has been no statistically significant increase in the number of large hurricanes to hit the US in the last 50 years or last 30 years.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Dec 19, 2016 - 08:35pm PT
Here's what the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory reported in Oct 2016 RE Global Warming and Hurricanes...

A. Summary Statement
Two frequently asked questions on global warming and hurricanes are the following:

Have humans already caused a detectable increase in Atlantic hurricane activity or global tropical cyclone activity?
What changes in hurricane activity are expected for the late 21st century, given the pronounced global warming scenarios from current IPCC models?

It is premature to conclude that human activities–and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming–have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclone activity. That said, human activities may have already caused changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observational limitations, or are not yet confidently modeled (e.g., aerosol effects on regional climate).

Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause tropical cyclones globally to be more intense on average (by 2 to 11% according to model projections for an IPCC A1B scenario). This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size.

There are better than even odds that anthropogenic warming over the next century will lead to an increase in the occurrence of very intense tropical cyclone in some basins–an increase that would be substantially larger in percentage terms than the 2-11% increase in the average storm intensity. This increase in intense storm occurrence is projected despite a likely decrease (or little change) in the global numbers of all tropical cyclones.

Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause tropical cyclones to have substantially higher rainfall rates than present-day ones, with a model-projected increase of about 10-15% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm center.

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 19, 2016 - 09:03pm PT
Me thinks most everyone kept doubling down not just the money guys.

I certainly didn't, and I had opportunity to take the lump sum from my UC retirement and "invest" it in the pre-Recession market, which was really hot if you recall...

At the time it was an interesting exercise to try to make the choice, I even asked here on SuperTopo Forum...
http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=764915&msg=797726#msg797726

anyway, it is possible to be a scientist and act in a rational manner.
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Dec 20, 2016 - 05:38am PT
So I ask those of you out there who know: why should anyone use the "historic return rate" of the stock market to project any future return? Indeed, why should one invest in the market at all?

With respect to this, the historic rate of return is not used so much to project a future rate of return--it is used more to assess the relative risk or volatility of a particular investment. The theory goes that higher risk investments can/will have higher returns.

Curt
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Dec 20, 2016 - 07:58am PT
As always, "follow the $$$" There will be winners and losers...

In Windfall: The Booming Business of Global Warming.
McKenzie Funk describes how people around the globe are cashing in on a warming world. McKenzie Funk has spent the last six years reporting around the world on how we are preparing for a warmer planet. Funk shows us that the best way to understand the catastrophe of global warming is to see it through the eyes of those who see it most clearly—as a market opportunity.

Global warming’s physical impacts can be separated into three broad categories: melt, drought, and deluge. Funk travels to two dozen countries to profile entrepreneurial people who see in each of these forces a potential windfall.

The melt is a boon for newly arable, mineral-rich regions of the Arctic, such as Greenland—and for the surprising kings of the manmade snow trade, the Israelis. The process of desalination, vital to Israel’s survival, can produce a snowlike by-product that alpine countries use to prolong their ski season.

Drought creates opportunities for private firefighters working for insurance companies in California as well as for fund managers backing south Sudanese warlords who control local farmland. As droughts raise food prices globally, there is no more precious asset.

[Click to View YouTube Video]


The deluge—the rising seas, surging rivers, and superstorms that will threaten island nations and coastal cities—has been our most distant concern, but after Hurricane Sandy and failure after failure to cut global carbon emissions, it is not so distant. For Dutch architects designing floating cities and American scientists patenting hurricane defenses, the race is on. For low-lying countries like Bangladesh, the coming deluge presents an existential threat.


Funk visits the front lines of the melt, the drought, and the deluge to make a human accounting of the booming business of global warming. By letting climate change continue unchecked, we are choosing to adapt to a warming world. Containing the resulting surge will be big business; some will benefit, but much of the planet will suffer.

Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Dec 20, 2016 - 02:21pm PT
California’s birth rate hits record low following job, housing woes


By Kurtis AlexanderDecember 19, 2016



California's birth rate dipped to an all-time low, according to data released Monday.

As California’s population grew to 39.4 million this year, its birth rate dipped to an all-time low amid the mounting challenges of raising a family, according to state data released Monday — a decline that some say threatens future economic growth and prosperity.

The preference for fewer kids is a trend that’s played out nationally and for at least a decade as women put off having children until later in life. But in California, the recession of the late 2000s, a lingering economic recovery and the state’s exorbitant real estate market have created fresh obstacles for young couples looking to settle down.

“It’s not like Millennials are all of a sudden different,” said Dowell Myers, a demographer at the University of Southern California’s School of Public Policy. “What’s different is they came of age at a really bad time. First, they lose their job opportunities. Second, they’ve been gridlocked by the shortage of housing.”

“It’s just been harder to get things in place before having kids,” Myers said.


The result for California was just 489,000 babies between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2016 — or 12.4 births for every 1,000 people, according to the state Department of Finance. The rate surpassed the previous record low of 12.6 births for every 1,000 people set in 1933, during the throes of the Great Depression.

California’s small northern counties, which have long struggled to attract jobs and young families, logged the lowest birth rates. But coastal spots, including the booming Bay Area and the Central Coast, weren’t far behind.

Though the state figures don’t tease out birth rates by ethnicity, U.S. census data suggest the trend holds among virtually all groups. Even among the Hispanic population, among the nation’s fastest growing, women have been giving birth in decreasing numbers since 2006, when the economy began to take its turn.

California’s low birth rates are helping prolong a decade-long trend of minimal population growth. The 0.75 percent increase between July of 2015 and 2016 marks 12 consecutive years that the state has gone without a bump above 1 percent. That’s a far cry from last century’s growth, which at times soared to 3 percent or more annually.

“In the ’70s and ’80s, we were pretty much a new state, with plenty of opportunity and open land, and many people came here,” said Walter Schwarm, a demographer with the Department of Finance. “Now, we look like a state that isn’t at that point anymore. We’re a mature state.”

As with the birth rate, the number of people moving to California has done little to boost the state’s population. While the level of newcomers has gone up since the late 2000s, when the recession discouraged many from coming here, migration to California remains low by historical standards.

Between July of 2015 and July of 2016, the state gained 188,000 people through migration from another country. But it lost 118,000 people due to migration between states. In all, 70,000 more people arrived than left.

Public policy experts say there could be significant costs if California’s growth rate falls further.

The population needs to at least sustain itself, and ideally to grow modestly, to fill the state’s jobs, support its economy and pay for the social benefits of retiring Baby Boomers.

“These are your future workers, taxpayers and home buyers. It’s your future for the next 20 years,” Myers said. “And we’re not getting them.”

Myers said California’s high cost of living is largely to blame for not attracting the young families that the state needs.

“While the job market is good,” he said, “the housing market stinks.”

Pro-growth policies such as increasing the housing stock and expanding child tax credits have been proposed. So have plans to encourage immigration, especially among highly-educated foreigners. But each of these efforts comes with financial and political challenges.

Schwarm, the state demographer, said that even if the state’s biggest growth is in the past, California has plenty to lure the best and brightest.

“To a certain extent,” he said, “as long as we remain an attractive state and the jobs are here, people will come.”

Kurtis Alexander is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: kalexander@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @kurtisalexander

39.4 million

California residents as of June 30, up 0.75 percent year-to-year

489,000 and 264,000

births and deaths, respectively, recorded by the state

in the last fiscal year

70,000 more people moved into California than moved out of the state in the last fiscal year.
rockermike

Trad climber
Berkeley
Dec 20, 2016 - 09:22pm PT
I have no opinion but here's an alternative voice


[Click to View YouTube Video]
monolith

climber
state of being
Dec 20, 2016 - 09:30pm PT
Giaever is snoped here: http://www.snopes.com/2015/07/08/nobel-ivar-giaever-obama-climate-change/

His first point is hilarious, stating that the temp has only changed from 288.0K to 288.8K, implying no significance. It sounds like something a physicist would say about climace science without much understanding of climate science.

Will have to see the rest of his garbage tomorrow.
rockermike

Trad climber
Berkeley
Dec 20, 2016 - 11:18pm PT
Another naysayer:
[Click to View YouTube Video]

And again... I'm really not promoting the 'no change' argument (hell I'm an anti-civilization radical cyclist) but I do sense a bit of groupthink going on which always makes me suspicious. Good to listen to alternative voices. :)
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 21, 2016 - 01:14am PT
there's a lot of agreement on Quantum Mechanics...

maybe that smacks of "group think" to you rockermike?
same with special and general relativity...
and a whole lot of other science.

obviously, the scientists who are doing the science can't be trusted (?)

AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Dec 21, 2016 - 07:04am PT
Groupthink occurs because the current theories fit the facts. Then a revolution occurs when new data is discovered that does not fit the theories. Now science has to devise new theories.
I have said it before but if a scientist can demonstrate that Co2 is not a major factor in climate change they will be famous overnight and maybe win a Nobel prize. New models and theories will have to be devised. This is the "something else" factor that deniers talk about.
So far we haven't found "something else"
monolith

climber
state of being
Dec 21, 2016 - 08:03am PT
Patick Moore was not a Greenpeace co-founder, just an early member.

Sheesh, RockerMike you do gobble up the glitzy vids.
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Dec 21, 2016 - 08:10am PT
Congress can. They just write a different law.
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Dec 21, 2016 - 09:33am PT
I can't hear the name Patrick Moore and keep a straight face as he is a fraud and totally incompetent.
We should not have to drill in the Arctic at this time and hopefully never in the future.
My fear is the "give federal lands to the States group" win out and we have massive drilling in sensitive areas.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Dec 21, 2016 - 10:31am PT
Agree with you wholeheartedly, DMT. It happens sometimes:)
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 21, 2016 - 11:21am PT
From the state lands of the Beaufort to the foothills of the Brooks Range billions of barrels of recoverable oil is being added to the known north slope reserves. Just as they are discovering huge new reserves via modern exploration and production techniques in the Permian Basin so to are they on the slope. The main problems on refilling the aging Alaskan pipeline is that the world is awash in cheap oil (so much for the fallacy of peak oil) and the AK state government resembles a third world banana Republic. ANWAR and federal waters are irrelevant at this point in this under explored province.
monolith

climber
state of being
Dec 21, 2016 - 01:57pm PT
TGT will be along shortly with this: http://www.sfgate.com/weather/article/snow-Sahara-photos-for-first-time-in-40-years-10811276.php
monolith

climber
state of being
Dec 21, 2016 - 06:11pm PT
rockermike

Trad climber
Berkeley
Dec 21, 2016 - 09:08pm PT
The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule. H. L. Mencken
monolith

climber
state of being
Dec 21, 2016 - 09:32pm PT
The urge to see conspiracy is strong in those who can't or won't understand the science
Flip Flop

climber
Earth Planet, Universe
Dec 21, 2016 - 09:40pm PT
A question for the scientists. Will there be another Ice Age? ( no hidden inferences, I'm honestly wondering what the patterns predict, if that's possible.
rockermike

Trad climber
Berkeley
Dec 21, 2016 - 09:45pm PT
I'm on a roll: :)

[Click to View YouTube Video]
monolith

climber
state of being
Dec 21, 2016 - 09:48pm PT
Tim Ball, another conspiracy droid. Good one RockerMike.

As far as ice ages go, you can judge for yourself how much temp offset from manmade sources will keep an ice age from happening.

I'm thinking it's about 7c to 9c. We are now at about 1c with more locked in.


http://www.sciencefriday.com/articles/will-there-be-another-ice-age/

https://www.skepticalscience.com/heading-into-new-little-ice-age-intermediate.htm
rockermike

Trad climber
Berkeley
Dec 21, 2016 - 10:48pm PT
Listen to the video then get back to me. :)
I'm agnostic on the topic but some of the ad hominem attacks on my posts kind of prove my point..... group think is going around. Are there some 'facts' that Tim Ball gives that are wrong, that are lies? Was the famous hockey-stick graph actually created only after deceptively cutting off earlier and later time periods (one of Tim's claims.)
Anyway, even if coal and fossil fuels do prove the cause, you yourself are not a climate scientist so you are simply taking another's word for it.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 21, 2016 - 11:16pm PT
Was the famous hockey-stick graph actually created only after deceptively cutting off earlier and later time periods (one of Tim's claims.)

no it was not a deception, not only was the original "hockey-stick" graph correct, but it is supported by subsequent research expanding on the proxies, and on the time range... it is very much a real thing.

two hours? I don't think I'm going to go through the whole video, skipping through it it would seem there is a bit of ad hominem arguing going on there, too...
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Dec 22, 2016 - 12:38am PT
Flip Flop asked ^^^
Will there be another Ice Age?
Probably not in our lifetime ;-(

Rock weathering as a carbon sink could make a difference but it will take centuries or much longer to begin to reduce the rate of Carbon flux into the atmosphere by this mechanism...

According to future anthropogenic emission scenarios, the atmospheric CO2 concentration may double before the end of the twenty-first century1. This increase is predicted to result in a global warming of more than 6 °C in the worst case1. The global temperature increase will promote changes in the hydrologic cycle through redistributions of rainfall patterns and continental vegetation cover1, 2. All of these changes will impact the chemical weathering of continental rocks. Long considered an inert CO2 consumption flux at the century timescale, recent works have demonstrated its potential high sensitivity to the ongoing climate and land-use changes3, 4

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n5/full/nclimate1419.html

https://www.skepticalscience.com/weathering.html
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Dec 22, 2016 - 07:34am PT
my posts kind of prove my point..... group think is going around.

There's a hyper-zealous defensiveness among the warmists. Kind of makes you wonder who they're trying to convince.
WBraun

climber
Dec 22, 2016 - 08:06am PT
Material nature is very balanced and harmonious in its natural true state.

In humanities present day state, it is completely out of sync with its own true self and material nature, inharmonious.

When this is predominate as we see now on this planet then the climate will become completely inharmonious to cause pain to humanity.

Without pain, no change to go back to the natural harmonious state that all humanity so naturally always is part parcel.

In summary, humanity is the cause of all climate change .......
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 22, 2016 - 09:50am PT
Anyway, even if coal and fossil fuels do prove the cause, you yourself are not a climate scientist so you are simply taking another's word for it.

From a scientific standpoint, fossil fuels (coal is a fossil fuel) are a major part of climate change, the vast amount of scientific research indicates that failing to account for the increased CO2 from fossil fuel energy production leads to a very different climate than the one we are currently experiencing.

There are no other hypotheses that provide quantitative predictions of the climate. The other hypotheses that have been made have not been able to account for all of the observations and often require other mechanisms that are found not to exist.

For example, rick sumner's advocacy of solar activity, which is an obvious possible cause, fails for a number of reasons, the first being that over the last few solar cycles the solar activity has decreased while the surface temperatures have increased. Since this happens over decades, we are left to try to understand how the this might be. A number of suggestions have been proposed but fail to have effects remotely large enough to explain the large temperature increases.

Even the linkage between the Maunder Minimum and the Little Ice Age is not at all clear, yet the proxy of sunspots is presumed to directly relate to solar output, and the social stories of the history used as evidence of a major climatic event.

The relationship between the solar magnetic behavior and the solar irradiance is an ongoing scientific question. The climate proxies regarding that period also tend to be less dramatic than the various statements.

And while there seems to be a connection, it is a far smaller effect than the current increases in temperature, which cannot be explained by the data without accounting for the CO2 increases due to human activity.

When the effect of solar activity as implied by the Maunder Minimum are put into the various climate models, they impose a small variability on top of the much larger CO2 increases.


Unfortunately, and I know this from experience, if you watch one climate denial YouTube video, you'll be inundated with recommendations to watch more of the same. And while you'll have some "mainstream" climate science video recommendations, these are far less frequent.

So it's relatively easy to go down a path of watching climate change denial videos, most are relatively old, and think this represents a legitimate standpoint.

Yet putting the same time and effort into learning about climate science from climate scientists seems to be troublingly rare. The reason is simply stated in the quote above: "...you yourself are not a climate scientist so you are simply taking another's word for it."

The simplest analysis of this objection is that you don't know anything about climate science at all, you are taking someone's word for it. If you object to any expert's "opinion" regarding their field of expertise, and are not willing to develop some understanding about that field yourself, what are you adding to the discussion? You are talking about something you don't know anything about... you can not even judge the experts' expertise.

While one might protest the ipse dixit of experts, at least the scientific experts can point to the body of work that leads to their opinion, non-scientific experts have nothing to point to, their scientific case being absent.

Anyway, you have the opportunity to ask people on this forum familiar with the science to explain it to you... to the extent they are willing to spend time doing it... while for those videos, you have no access to ask questions of the speaker.

In science we believe that "the only authority is nature" so we look there for evidence, all other authority is questioned. It turns out that scientists are much more skeptical than any of the so-called skeptics.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Dec 22, 2016 - 10:05am PT
Malemute: that DOE Lake Charles Methanol (LCM) Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Project is essentially stripping CO2 from petroleum coke refining operations and using that CO2 as a "surfactant" for Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR), so the net benefit to the environment is marginal at best. For CCS to be a significant process to reduce future CO2 emissions, it really needs to be decoupled from the oil production process and stored in deep geologic repositories, like saline aquifers.

“Essentially what we’re doing is decarbonizing oil,” said Hunter Johnston, an attorney with Steptoe and Johnson who represents Lake Charles Methanol. “We’re lowering the carbon impact of oil, because we’re taking a part of the refining process that would otherwise be associated with CO2 emissions and we’re capturing that to produce more oil. So there’s this huge benefit of domestic production as a result while improving the environment.”

WTF "decarbonizing oil" I'm going to call bulls*t on that statement.

There may be a "huge" benefit for domestic oil production

LCM will support domestic oil production of 12,500 barrels per day, or 4.5 million barrels per year, through the sale of its CO2 for use in enhanced oil recovery (EOR) operations along the Gulf Coast

but
improving the environment
??
that's a highly questionable to dishonest statement IMO.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Dec 22, 2016 - 02:27pm PT
OK, better than "denial" and I applaud the CO2 capture part of the LCM project but the sequestration part is what I take issue with. The CO2 that is being captured at the LCM Plant is being used to produce more oil that, when burned, will add more heat trapping gases to the atmosphere. IMO the maximum environmental benefit from CO2 sequestration is injection of CO2 into geologic repositories without using it to produce more oil.
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Dec 22, 2016 - 02:43pm PT
Well said Ed
Scientists are way more skeptical than most people.
Maybe you in the US want an "alternative" opinion on the Supreme Court.
Why not hire a dentist? After all a most dentists are smart and he or she won't be tainted by knowledge of the law. Then you can get a truly independent viewpoint.

I just think people are getting even dumber in this age of excessive information.

By the way I have a degree in Physics and work in oil and gas exploration. We always work with an incomplete data set, one that is not as solid as the climate change data set. We are forced to fill in the gray areas and use probabilities to make business decisions. For all of this we can be very successful if we handle things correctly.
Remember the Manhattan Project built a bomb yet were working beyond the established theories.

Flip Flop

climber
Earth Planet, Universe
Dec 22, 2016 - 04:48pm PT
We could agree that environmental degradation is detrimental and agree that nourishing our ecosystem is desirable. Shazaam! Value agreed upon leads to prosperity. It's a thing.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Dec 22, 2016 - 04:53pm PT
Anyway, even if tobacco and smoking do cause cancer, you yourself are not a health researcher so you are simply taking another's word for it.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 22, 2016 - 05:56pm PT
Now TGT you know none of those recent papers are worth the paper they are printed on. Obviously Koch bros or big oil funded becuz every good lib/xtreme green/commie knows good guvments don't fund non anthropogenic nor non end of the world findings. Just ask Ed, he knows all.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Dec 22, 2016 - 06:02pm PT
TGT to...Alls i saw was the xmas tree....
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 22, 2016 - 09:33pm PT
Natural capital? It's in the fission and fusion of atoms as well as the black gold beneath your feet. It's in the sun and the soil that feeds us, the animals raised up from same. It resides between the ears of individuals whose flash of genius has propelled the technological revolution that established Homo Sapiens Sapiens as the apex species.
Google Maurice Strong/Club of Rome/global warming.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 23, 2016 - 12:42am PT
The data in the link in the link needs some splaining by the warmists.

the link is very strange, I looked at 10 of the papers and a general trend emerged, but first...

the signal of climate change is based on global spatial averages compared to a 30 year average time which defines the point against which a difference can be calculated, for temperature this is referred to as a temperature anomaly.

Global warming is just that, global, which is to say that not every location on the Earth's surface is warming.

Most of the plots which TGT erroneously refers to as "data" are actually taken from the same time series used to calculate the global averages. Some of the papers referenced on that link, use the time series to calibrate their proxies, then provide, for that location, a time series back before the instrumentation period to get an idea of what the "recent" paleoenvironment was.

Doing this all around the globe would provide a means of averaging the paleoclimate and getting an idea of the pre-industrial global temperature. This is the "hockey-stick" graph.

You can go an look at each paper (nearly) and decide for yourselves, I provide my notes below.

One more thing, the link TGT provides via his "if all you see" site does not survey all of the 2016 papers on paleoclimatology, only those which make a point of disagreeing with the "hockey-stick." That site concludes that the "hockey-stick" collapses, but that is a silly assertion, as the climate is quantified by the average of many sites.

Neither TGT nor rick read any of those papers... they don't need to, they know the all the answers.




http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818115301478

Recent temperature trends in the South Central Andes reconstructed from sedimentary chrysophyte stomatocysts in Laguna Escondida (1742 m a.s.l., 38°28 S, Chile)


R. De Jong, T. Schneider, I. Hernández–Almeida, M. Grosjean
...
The reconstruction shows that recent warming (onset in AD 1980) in the southern Chilean Andes was not exceptional in the context of the past century. This is in strong contrast to studies from the Northern Hemisphere. The finding is also in contrast to the cooling temperature trends which were detected using meteorological measurement data in low altitude sites along the Chilean coast. This finding confirms that coastal meteorological station data in this region do not reliably reflect recent temperature trends at high altitudes. Moreover, it implies a southward shift of the northern border of the Westerlies wind belt. This study clearly illustrates the importance of quantitative, high resolution studies from remote sites, in particular at high elevation mountain areas.

http://www.clim-past.net/12/1485/2016/cp-12-1485-2016.pdf

A 368-year maximum temperature reconstruction based on tree-ring data in the northwestern Sichuan Plateau (NWSP), China

Liangjun Zhu, Yuandong Zhang, Zongshan Li, Binde Guo, and Xiaochun Wang

...Samples were collected from spruce (Picea purpurea) growing at timberline of the mountain Ayila in the township of Chali, located in the NWSP (32º 43′ 49" N, 102º 06′ 17" E; 3900 m above sea level, a.s.l.)...


http://pc70.gvc.gu.se/dc/PUBs/Zhang_etal2016.pdf

1200 years of warm-season temperature variability in central Scandinavia inferred from tree-ring density

Peng Zhang, Hans W. Linderholm, Björn E. Gunnarson, Jesper Björklund, and Deliang Chen

...
C-Scan suggests a moderate MCA warm-peak during ca. 1000 to 1100 CE in central Scandinavia and a LIA lasting from the mid-16th century to the end of the 19th century. During the last millennium, the coldest 10and 30-year periods occurred around 1600 CE in central Scandinavia. The warmest 10and 30-year periods were found in the 20th century. C-Scan indicates lower temperatures during the late MCA (ca. 1130–1210 CE) and higher temperatures during the LIA (1610–1850 CE) than G11.
...

[note this is 9 sampling sites in central Sweden, not all of Scandinavia, Figure 4b, shows that the observed and reconstructed temperatures from tree rings track in the 1890-2011 time period. Figures 5a shows the data with a 70%-80% correlation with the "...warm-season temperature from the CRU TS3.23 0.5º × 0.5º data set (Harris et al., 2014)..." from which one set of global averages is derived.]

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165232X15001767

Inferring the variation of climatic and glaciological contributions to West Greenland iceberg discharge in the twentieth century


Yifan Zhao, Grant R. Bigg, Steve A. Billings, Edward Hanna, Andrew J. Sole, Hua-liang Wei, Visakan Kadirkamanathan, David J. Wilton

[note that the Labrador Sea Surface Temperature (LSST)is an input to the analysis performed in the paper, not a result of the paper. "The one input variable generated for this paper is LSST ( Fig. 1). This comes from averaging the Kaplan v2 SST (Kaplan et al., 1998), over the Labrador Sea area east to 45ºW, and south from the Davis Strait to 55ºN. While this is on the edge of the area covered by the Kaplan et al. global analysis, their error analyses suggest that the field in this region is not especially dependent on differences in the analysis method, and errors do not vary substantially over the twentieth century."]

http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/23/361/2016/

Wavelet analysis of the singular spectral reconstructed time series to study the imprints of solar–ENSO–geomagnetic activity on Indian climate

Sri Lakshmi Sunkara and Rama Krishna Tiwari

[once again, the paper uses the "the mean pre-monsoon temperature anomalies of the Western Himalayas (Yadav et al., 2004)" in Fig. 1b as an input, the paper does not produce the time series. Yadav uses 16 sample sites in Northwestern India. I could not find a table of the later 20th century Yadav et al. uses to calibrate their tree ring data, but in their paper we read "Monthly temperature anomalies (relative to 1961–1990 mean) of three weather stations (Dehra Dun, Mukteswar, and Shimla) covering the entire 20th century were used to develop a mean temperature series (Figures 4a–4c)."]

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v535/n7612/full/nature18645.html

Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability


John Turner, Hua Lu, Ian White, John C. King, Tony Phillips, J. Scott Hosking, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Gareth J. Marshall, Robert Mulvaney & Pranab Deb

abstract:
Since the 1950s, research stations on the Antarctic Peninsula have recorded some of the largest increases in near-surface air temperature in the Southern Hemisphere1. This warming has contributed to the regional retreat of glaciers2, disintegration of floating ice shelves3 and a ‘greening’ through the expansion in range of various flora4. Several interlinked processes have been suggested as contributing to the warming, including stratospheric ozone depletion5, local sea-ice loss6, an increase in westerly winds5, 7, and changes in the strength and location of low–high-latitude atmospheric teleconnections8, 9. Here we use a stacked temperature record to show an absence of regional warming since the late 1990s. The annual mean temperature has decreased at a statistically significant rate, with the most rapid cooling during the Austral summer. Temperatures have decreased as a consequence of a greater frequency of cold, east-to-southeasterly winds, resulting from more cyclonic conditions in the northern Weddell Sea associated with a strengthening mid-latitude jet. These circulation changes have also increased the advection of sea ice towards the east coast of the peninsula, amplifying their effects. Our findings cover only 1% of the Antarctic continent and emphasize that decadal temperature changes in this region are not primarily associated with the drivers of global temperature change but, rather, reflect the extreme natural internal variability of the regional atmospheric circulation.

[note, I added emphasis]

https://www.blogs.uni-mainz.de/fb09climatology/files/2012/03/Tejedor_2015_IJB.pdf

Tree-ring-based drought reconstruction in the Iberian Range (east of Spain) since 1694


Ernesto Tejedor & Martín de Luis & José María Cuadrat & Jan Esper & Miguel Ángel Saz


"We compiled a tree ring network from 21 different locations in the eastern Iberian Range of the Iberian Peninsula" within a 100 km region, the annual temperature is not a result of the paper, "Monthly temperature and precipitation instrumental data (provided by AEMET) from 30 stations within a maximum distance of 50 km, and spanning 1951–2010, were used to calibrate the tree ring data. In addition, gridded instrumental data from CRU TS v.3.22, (1901–2012 period, 0.5° × 0.5° resolution) were used for comparative purposes (Harris et al. 2014). Due to the size of the study area, the average of the three closest grid points was used to construct a regional time series." The figure was taken from the paper, "Fig. 2 Climate data. a) Climate diagram of the study area made from 30 meteorogical stations for the period 1950–2010 b)Annual temperature, and c) precipitation from 1950–2010."

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41063-016-0024-1

Recent retreat at a temperate Icelandic glacier in the context of the last ~80 years of climate change in the North Atlantic region


Benjamin M. P. Chandler, David J. A. Evans, David H. Roberts

"The annual moraines at Skálafellsjökull—and elsewhere in Iceland—primarily reflect seasonally driven submarginal processes active in a given year (cf. [13], and references therein), and will therefore largely reflect short-term climate variability. This rapid short-term behaviour at the ice-front (glacier reaction time) should be distinguished from the integrated longer-term behaviour of the whole glacier (glacier response time), which is usually of the order of decades in maritime glaciers (cf. [2, 5, 10, 16, 27, 34])."

note that this means that these glaciers respond seasonally... once again, the temperature plot in the paper, Fig. 2 (b) is taken from an external source: "Meteorological data was supplied by Veðurstofa Íslands (the Icelandic Meteorological Office)"

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n10/full/nclimate3103.html
http://eisenman.ucsd.edu/papers/Jones-et-al-2016.pdf

Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate


Julie M. Jones, Sarah T. Gille, Hugues Goosse, Nerilie J. Abram, Pablo O. Canziani, Dan J. Charman, Kyle R. Clem, Xavier Crosta, Casimir de Lavergne, Ian Eisenman, Matthew H. England, Ryan L. Fogt, Leela M. Frankcombe, Gareth J. Marshall, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Adele K. Morrison, Anaïs J. Orsi, Marilyn N. Raphael, James A. Renwick, David P. Schneider, Graham R. Simpkins, Eric J. Steig, Barbara Stenni, Didier Swingedouw & Tessa R. Vance

Note the the figure comes from the papers Figure 1 "Antarctic atmosphere–ocean–ice changes over the satellite-observing era" and is not a result of the paper, Figure 2, "Antarctic climate variability and trends over the past 200 years from long observational and proxy-derived indicators" shows the data presented by this paper. A more complete quote from the conclusion:

"Our synthesis has emphasized that less than 40 years of instrumental climate data is insufficient to characterize the variability of the high southern latitudes or to robustly identify an anthropogenic contribution, except for the changes in the SAM. Although temperature changes over 1950–2008 from the average of individual stations have been attributed to anthropogenic causes(99), only low confidence can be assigned, owing to observational uncertainties(100) and largescale decadal and multi-decadal variability. Detection and attribution studies depend on the validity of estimates of natural variability from climate model simulations. This is particularly the case for variables such as Antarctic sea ice, which have problematic representation in climate models(36) and short observational time series from which to estimate real multi-decadal variability. The strong regional variability on all timescales implies that the sparsity of observations and proxy data is a clear limitation, especially in the ocean, and that averaging climate properties over the entire Antarctic or Southern Ocean potentially aliases the regional differences."

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4906/abstract

A 211-year growing season temperature reconstruction using tree-ring width in Zhangguangcai Mountains, Northeast China: linkages to the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans


Liangjun Zhu, Zongshan Li, Yuandong Zhang, Xiaochun Wang

couldn't find the paper on the internet outside of the paywall, but interestingly, it seems another paper which does much the same analysis sees a quite robust "hockey stick"...

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/309073466_A_414-year_tree-ring-based_April-July_minimum_temperature_reconstruction_and_its_implications_for_the_extreme_climate_events_northeast_China

Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Dec 23, 2016 - 06:40am PT
Maybe for some of us, its more about the reality of modern society and needs of other people.

Do you believe in helping the poor - hear and in other countries? Do you believe in subsidies or fair competition among businesses? Do you believe in keeping all the modern conveniences in your life of relegating those to the past?

2% of the energy mix is now from solar and wind. After all the growth. 2%. The environmental crowd protests dams and nuclear, both of which are carbon free AND bigger sources of power. Gas is cleaner than coal but the "keep it in the ground" crowd is targeting it. So... what can we use?

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/u-s-energy-consumption-one-giant-diagram/
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Dec 23, 2016 - 07:21am PT
One of the big problems in our society is the ignorance regarding science among many of the general public. Even if a person lacks the aptitude or knowledge to appreciate the details there are many good science books for the lay person.
What a lot of people don't realize is that science is very good at self correcting. There may be a poorly run experiment or in some cases outright fraud but this gets sorted out quickly. Bad data and results get exposed and discredited.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 23, 2016 - 09:50am PT
Exactly Dave.

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 23, 2016 - 10:02am PT
Maybe for some of us, its more about the reality of modern society and needs of other people.

"The reality of modern society" has to face up to the reality of the availability of resources, and the consequences of using those resources.

One of the resources is the atmosphere, which we use to dump exhaust and use for respiration (both plants and animals) and as a source of water, as a shield from harmful radiation, and to provide a moderated climate.

The increase of CO2 into the atmosphere is 10 times the rate of any natural increase in the last 66 million years. The continuation of this pursuit of "modern society" unabated will significantly change the climate, various studies suggest that these changes would not make the world "better" in anyway.

There is no simple solution to this, the cost of energy to support "the reality of modern society" will go up as the cost of climate change is levied, a cost that will go up whether or not governments act, the atmosphere, the climate, affect all of us regardless of policy, regardless of the desire to maintain our particular "reality of modern society."

This will be a time of disruption, especially in the "energy market." It has already started, investors looking at the future of fossil fuel use are starting to wonder what the value of those resources are, and those "owning" those resources are having to explain how they are priced. Those reserves are quite valuable in the current market, tens of trillions of dollars, so facing the prospect that the reserves lose all of their value is not going be a "smooth" transition to any other form of energy production.

Further, because of the facts regarding the science, the CO2 we put up now will be around long after we are gone, a legacy to future generations.

Whether or not you believe in that science, it represents a very plausible scenario for the future. Viewed as a risk, the vast majority of scientists think is highly plausible, it is not at all foolish to begin to find a way to mitigate against that risk.

In fact, it is foolish to ignore the most likely scenarios of the future and assume that nothing will happen and fail to plan for those futures.

A venerable football coach explained this week the logic behind activating a third quarterback from injured reserve as his team headed for the playoffs this way: "you don't know you need insurance until you need insurance." He's a smart cookie, he's not waiting until he knows.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 23, 2016 - 10:33am PT
"studies suggest". Your guys just don't get it Ed. The "reality" is that the natives of the western world you attack for their exhalations into commons of the atmosphere don't want to go quietly into that long night the proponents of your "climate science" prescribe to deal with the "unsustainability" of their lives.


dirtbag

climber
Dec 23, 2016 - 10:36am PT
^^^idiots gonna idiot
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 23, 2016 - 10:37am PT
the science suggests they will regardless of what they want to do... rick

and ignoring those studies is foolish.

But you do more than play the fool in your strange pronouncements.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 23, 2016 - 10:54am PT
Science gone mad.

You guys are modern witch doctors, mad incompetents at best, leaders of a Lemming like mass suicide of all earth species at worst. The aim of the sole prescription coming out these modern day witch doctors is to cure the imaginary disease by terminating the patient.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 23, 2016 - 11:00am PT
so strange a rant, you yourself proclaim that science will make everything better, no need to worry...

which is it rick? your schizophrenia seems rather strongly tied to your desperate grasp on your current lifestyle, and fears of loosing it.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 23, 2016 - 11:08am PT
Yes, this strange voodoo science will eventually be relegated to the dust bin of history. Let's just hope those replacing it's practictioners have the betterment of life as a new guiding principle.

Brandon-

climber
The Granite State.
Dec 23, 2016 - 11:11am PT
The Chief would proud of you, Sumner. That makes one. Together, you two can debunk all that sciency stuff.

The earth is f*#king flat!
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 23, 2016 - 11:18am PT
Ah yes, The Chief. I miss his prescense here. He was a tireless warrior pursuing the truth and he did it in a very humorous way.
Fat Dad

Trad climber
Los Angeles, CA
Dec 23, 2016 - 11:21am PT
Yes, this strange voodoo science will eventually be relegated to the dust bin of history. Let's just hope those replacing it's practictioners have the betterment of life as a new guiding principle.
Yes, why rely on voodoo science when you can just skip the science and rely on the voodoo.
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Dec 23, 2016 - 11:49am PT
I might as well discus climate change with my dog
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 23, 2016 - 12:10pm PT
If you can't understand and tailor your responses to the thread title( Climate Change: Why aren't more people concerned about it?) may I suggest you are aiming a bit high on the evolutionary ladder in discussion with your dog.
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Dec 23, 2016 - 12:12pm PT
Climate Change: Why aren't more dogs concerned about it?
Fat Dad

Trad climber
Los Angeles, CA
Dec 23, 2016 - 12:13pm PT
^^^
Rick, everyone has been waiting for the same of you. Also, I believe his point was much better taken than the ones you've made.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 23, 2016 - 12:29pm PT
Fat Dad- Hundreds of billions of dollars of public funding has been lavished on scientists no better than witch doctors for a result "suggesting consistency with CAGW". Additionally trillions of dollars has been wasted on their sole allowed replacements- bird choppers,in flight deep fryers, and eco damaging carpets of solar PV- with the result of 2% replacement of the energy modern life is built on. Almost universally these scientists pigging out on the public trough denounce real replacement like next gen nuclear and natural gas. These same people are associated and dependent upon the deep greens who pronounce human population as unsustainable and call for reduction to the 500,000,000 level. What's not to get?
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Dec 23, 2016 - 02:57pm PT
Dave, in Ca, the number for renewables is about 25%. It is hard to argue that the quality of life or the economy is suffering because of that difference, eh?

And it is worth remembering that about 20% of all the power used in the state is used to move water over mountains to SoCal. Elimination of that move is certainly "low hanging fruit" for reducing the amount of waste gas producing carbon consumption.

Personally, I think nuclear is the way to go, as I suspect the newer generation of power plants will have the safety margins that are really needed.

http://www.energy.ca.gov/almanac/electricity_data/total_system_power.html
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Dec 23, 2016 - 03:43pm PT
Locker, no doubt. However, I think we've come a long way in terms of skepticism about safety of nuclear....such that proponents have a lot to prove, in being able to move forward.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 23, 2016 - 04:11pm PT
Oh boy. Ken you do realize your electricity comes from a grid that doesn't recognize California's border and most importantly an electron doesn't discriminate from whence it came? The bulk of the power flowing through our national grids, 98% by some estimates, comes from sources that you consider as non renewables. Besides that, even your renewable sources are only renewable to the extant of supply of the non renewable sources used to mine it, process it, manufacture it, ship it, install it and maintain it.

Dream on in LA LA land.

On the flip side at least you support nuclear as the reality of viable replacement.

AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Dec 23, 2016 - 05:23pm PT
Even James Hansen thinks nuclear is a good idea. I understand the modern reactors can have minimal waste. Just don't build them on a beach where the name tsunami was invented or on a major fault.
Natural gas consumption is expected to rise along with renewables as coal plants shut down. Coal in US and Canada is on its way out.
Does anyone have any knowledge to share on modern reactors?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 23, 2016 - 05:28pm PT
Hundreds of billions of dollars of public funding has been lavished on scientists no better than witch doctors for a result "suggesting consistency with CAGW".

wrong

Additionally trillions of dollars has been wasted on their sole allowed replacements- bird choppers,in flight deep fryers, and eco damaging carpets of solar PV- with the result of 2% replacement of the energy modern life is built on.

wrong

Almost universally these scientists pigging out on the public trough denounce real replacement like next gen nuclear and natural gas.

wrong

These same people are associated and dependent upon the deep greens who pronounce human population as unsustainable and call for reduction to the 500,000,000 level.

wrong

What's not to get?

you tell me rick, most likely you're drinking deep from the climate denial well (probably nothing good in that draught for you).
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Dec 23, 2016 - 09:48pm PT
Oh boy. Ken you do realize your electricity comes from a grid that doesn't recognize California's border and most importantly an electron doesn't discriminate from whence it came? The bulk of the power flowing through our national grids, 98% by some estimates, comes from sources that you consider as non renewables.

Besides that, even your renewable sources are only renewable to the extant of supply of the non renewable sources used to mine it, process it, manufacture it, ship it, install it and maintain it.

Your second point is certainly valid, although there is no comparison with the use of coal, for example, in terms of environmental damage, and production of greenhouse gases.

However, your first point is not quite reasonable. While what you state about the "statelessness" of electrons is true, it is not true that power cannot be traced as to source. For example, Los Angeles gets some of it's power from coal fired plants. How does it know that? It is part owner of those plants. However the plan for LA states:

"The plan recommended ending purchases of power from the coal-fired Navajo Generating Station by 2014, which is five years ahead of the deadline established by California state law. The plan recommends ending use of power from the coal-fired Intermountain Power Station by 2020"

Los Angeles, the nation’s second-most populous metropolitan area after New York, has cut greenhouse-gas emissions by more than 28 percent from 1990 levels, which it says is more than any other major U.S. city.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-03-19/los-angeles-halts-using-electricity-from-coal-plants
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Dec 24, 2016 - 01:18pm PT
Climate Change: Why aren't more people concerned about it?

BECAUSE IT'S A MASSIVE HOAX FOR THE GULLIBLE.

gul·li·ble
ˈɡələb(ə)

adjective
easily persuaded to believe something; credulous.
"an attempt to persuade a gullible public to spend their money"
synonyms: credulous, naive, overtrusting, overtrustful, easily deceived, easily taken in, exploitable, dupable, impressionable, unsuspecting, unsuspicious, unwary, ingenuous, innocent, inexperienced, unworldly, green
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 24, 2016 - 01:29pm PT
I don't think I'm very gullible... climate change is no hoax, but I suspect that you could interpret the buying and burning of fossil fuels as a gullible action, after, who's telling you it's ok to do that?

shouldn't you be having some nice family time, pud?

I'm waiting for my daughter to arrive...
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Dec 24, 2016 - 01:41pm PT
Brother Ed,

It's party time at our house!
Lots of kids running around, good tunes, good food and great friends.

Happy holidays!
Ksolem

Trad climber
Monrovia, California
Dec 24, 2016 - 01:41pm PT
Regarding safety advances in nuclear power, one of the more significant one's is convection cooling. Relying on the principle that hot water rises and cold water falls to cool the reactor core eliminates the need to rely on circulating pumps. With convection cooling Fukushima could have been controlled. The sh*t hit the fan when the circulating pumps lost power.
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Dec 24, 2016 - 03:23pm PT
Here is another point that may not have been covered.
One piece at the root of denialism is that many people do not understand the concept of possible outcomes and probabilities associated with these outcomes.
They think answers should be 100% right or 100% wrong and if some result or prediction has some hair on it, it must be useless for guiding our actions.
Climate modelling and prediction will never give you the correct answer for our future. Even if the models were complete and totally correct the nature of non linear dynamical systems means that model predictions are statistical.
What we can get are guidelines and ranges for the most probable outcomes.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Dec 24, 2016 - 05:11pm PT
Malemute, that is an interesting article.

It demonstrates what happens when Rick's friends are allowed to do what they want. If it were not illegal, they would bring in truckloads of waste to be dumped in Yosemite Valley.

And then would scream "SHOW ME THE STUDIES! I WANT TO SEE THE STUDIES THAT DEMONSTRATES HARM! WHO PAID FOR THE STUDIES?? LIBERAL GARBAGE SCIENCE!!
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Dec 29, 2016 - 05:40pm PT
^^^
Speaking of money, power and material interests...

According to Exxon's "Energy and Carbon -- Managing the Risks" report, Rex Tillerson & Co will not be committing to the "low carbon scenario" that would stabilize CO2 in the atmosphere at ~450 ppm & average global temp increase <3C
because the costs and the damaging impact to accessible, reliable and affordable energy resulting from the policy changes such a scenario would produce are beyond those that societies, especially the world’s poorest and most vulnerable, would be willing to bear, in our estimation.

That's a self-serving statement IMO. Seems to me that these same poor and vulnerable societies stand the most to suffer from global warming.

https://www.coursehero.com/file/14810174/Report-Energy-and-Carbon-Managing-the-Riskspdf/

Exxon estimates that,
the average American household would face an added CO2 cost of almost $2,350 per year for energy, amounting to about 5 percent of total before-tax median income. These costs would need to escalate steeply over time, and be more than double the 2030 level by mid-century. Further, in order to stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations, these CO2 costs would have to be applied across both developed and developing countries.

Rex & Co are betting that the "worst case" climate modeling scenarios will never be realized. There is no "corporate" advantage to hedging their bets with a proactive CO2 reduction policy that would keep the planet from warming ~3C.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Dec 29, 2016 - 07:04pm PT
As much as I like www.democracynow.org, I wouldn't lump Rex Tillerson in the same Climate Science denier gang with Trump or Rick Perry as Nermeen Shaikh does in the opening statement. In any case, there is a large scale effort underway to archive decades of climate science data before the Trump administration comes to power, including "a guerrilla archiving event" on servers outside the US.

So, what we’re doing in the Data Refuge effort, it’s a really large collaborative effort, with—including the Internet Archive and, as you mentioned, the folks in Toronto, as well as researchers, scholars, librarians, citizen scientists from many different places, basically creating safe channels for data that is currently stored and made accessible through federal websites and through the federal government to move to new locations so that it can—we can continue to ensure access to these facts for research. It’s also an effort to raise awareness of the value of this data and of how data is preserved and shared today.

https://www.democracynow.org/2016/12/29/scientists_scramble_to_protect_decades_of
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Jan 2, 2017 - 05:29pm PT
Interesting Rolling Stone interview with James Hansen...
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/will-we-miss-our-last-chance-to-survive-climate-change-w456917

...including a ~ 4 min video at the end.

Trump's Cabinet nominees are virtually all climate deniers, including the new head of the Environmental Protection Agency, Scott Pruitt. Are Trump's appointments a sign that climate denialism has gone mainstream?

Climate denialism never died. My climate program at NASA was zeroed out in 1981 when the [Reagan] administration appointed a hatchet man [James Edwards] to manage the program at Department of Energy. Denialism was still very strong in 2005-2006 when the White House ordered NASA to curtail my speaking. When I objected to this censorship, using the first line of the NASA Mission Statement ["to understand and protect our home planet"], the NASA administrator, who was an adamant climate denier, eliminated that line from the NASA Mission Statement. Denialism is no more mainstream today than it was in those years.

If President-elect Trump called you and asked for advice on climate policy, what would you tell him?

What we need is a policy that honestly addresses the fundamentals. We must make the price of fossil fuels honest by including a carbon fee – that is, a straightforward tax on fossil fuels when they come out of the ground, and which is returned directly to people as a kind of yearly dividend or payment. Perhaps someone will explain to President-elect Trump that a carbon fee brings back jobs to the U.S. much more effectively than jawboning manufacturers – it will also drive the U.S. to become a leader in clean-energy technology, which also helps our exports. The rest of the world believes in climate change, even if the Trump administration doesn't.

A lot of people say you are a great scientist, but when it comes to policy, that's a whole other thing – and something you should leave to politicians.

Bullshit. What scientists do is analyze problems, including energy aspects of the problem. I got started thinking about energy way back in 1981, when I published a paper that concluded that you can't burn all the coal, otherwise you end up with a different planet. There's nothing wrong with scientists thinking about energy policy, in my opinion. In fact, if you have some scientific insights into the implications of different policies, you should say them. It's the politicians who try to stop you. And that includes people who ran NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, where I worked for 33 years. Before I would go to Washington to testify, I'd sometimes get a call from the director of the center – somebody who I respect a lot and is a very good scientist and engineer. But he would tell me, "Just be sure to only talk about science, not policy."
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 3, 2017 - 08:54am PT
an interesting piece in the NYTimes raises many questions about the assertion that people can "just move" to the more climatically advantageous place...

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/30/science/fish-climate-change-northeast.html

first question: where would that be?
second question: will the people there accept new people competing for resources?

interestingly, there seems to be no debate regarding the climate change, the oceans are getting warmer and the fish migrate where the temps are right for them... and while you can ignore as impractical and irrelevant for the current fisheries just why the oceans are warming, it would behove us to understand it and be able to plan on it...

the best science we have, and it is considerably good science, places the cause on human activity increasing atmospheric CO2. That science provides reliable predictions for the future, given various scenarios of human activity.
pyro

Big Wall climber
Calabasas
Jan 3, 2017 - 11:29am PT
first question: where would that be?
second question: will the people there accept new people competing for resources?

climate hoax will end this month!
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Jan 3, 2017 - 01:47pm PT
Trump will end climate change with a Tweet ;-(

Then he'll nominate this idiot


as his Science Adviser :-0





On the other hand, someone could convince Trump that there's $$$ to be made from Global Warming and he could become a huge supporter of Climate Science but I rather doubt this.
monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 4, 2017 - 06:41am PT
pyro

Big Wall climber
Calabasas
Jan 5, 2017 - 07:29am PT
http://dailycaller.com/2017/01/04/craziness-of-the-global-warming-debate-drives-prominent-skeptic-from-academia/?utm_campaign=TrumpPence&utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=Social#ixzz4UooJWP2L

Climate hoax so scientist can get paid to B.S. with a calculator..
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Jan 5, 2017 - 07:40am PT
Fear does strange things to people.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Jan 5, 2017 - 08:53am PT
^^^Daily Caller^^^...Tucker Carlsen's bastion of journalistic integrity. Here's what John Stewart thinks of Tucker on Crossfire...

[Click to View YouTube Video]

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 5, 2017 - 08:56am PT
I never got what Curry's issues were, on the face of it one can be critical of predictions in a constructive manner, even if those criticisms are not "popular" among your colleagues. But then I'm not in that field of science, I do know people who are...

As for what seems to be her criticism of "predictability" of the models, certainly this is something that can be quantified. To say the models are "uncertain" isn't a very big criticism, of course they are, the question is to what degree are they uncertain. And everyone here as the access to take a look... I've done it in the past, here I plot the temperature anomaly on top of the then model predictions:


the model runs where made several years ago, and represent a "prediction" which the anomaly data seem to agree with.

The range of the bands give an indication of the uncertainty of the prediction, and increase as they are projected into the future. The measurements are within the bands, and seem to track with one of three sets of models that you can see are grouped at long time trends, though this may also reflect different scenarios of CO2 increases in the atmosphere.

The bright green line is the updated data... while "the pause" was a big topic a few years ago, it doesn't seem to be a pause after all, and the increases in the temperature is tracking the expectation.

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 5, 2017 - 10:14am PT
Classic cherry picking Ed.

What model runs are used? Is it all or just a selection of those in the lower band?

Why isn't RSS/UAH represented?
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Jan 5, 2017 - 01:35pm PT
That Daily Caller article^^^ is a partisan hack job. For a better understanding of Judith Curry's position, read this recent interview with her...

http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060047798

e.g.,

My way of looking at it is that the evidence that we do have [RE future climate] leads me to think that things are not as bad as what they're [Climate Models] predicting. However, if they are right — and they could be, I acknowledge that — if they are right, the policies we've put into place are woefully inadequate.
jgill

Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
Jan 5, 2017 - 03:54pm PT
A key problem is to separate climate science from political correctness. A great many Americans in Middle America see the former as an aspect of the latter.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 5, 2017 - 05:25pm PT
Classic cherry picking Ed.

What model runs are used? Is it all or just a selection of those in the lower band?

Why isn't RSS/UAH represented?


I put all the model runs in the plot... everyone of them from the data site... you don't have to trust me, rick, you could do it yourself.

As for the RSS data, once again, you could make your own chart... here's mine:


note that these data are normalized to the RSS data time...

I will tell you these are not cherry picked... you can confirm that by making the plots yourself from the available data. Given that you could do that, why would I cherry pick?

I don't have to...
monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 5, 2017 - 05:27pm PT
How you like your RSS now, Sumner?

pyro

Big Wall climber
Calabasas
Jan 5, 2017 - 05:54pm PT

Global warming experiment!
37degrees at night lasted 2days.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 5, 2017 - 06:04pm PT
how quickly would you expect the snow man to melt, pyro?
do you have any idea?
what was the average melt time 10 years ago?
20 years ago?
etc...

do you know the average duration of the Tioga Pass winter closure had been going down an average of one day per year since the mid 1930s?

why would that be?
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Jan 5, 2017 - 08:30pm PT
I have watched the Cdn Rockies change dramatically since I started climbing in 1977.
I think the deniers have to get outside and open their eyes.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 6, 2017 - 07:15pm PT
In spite of the super El Nino of 2014-2015, the years long release of heat from the huge traveling north pacific warm blob, and the atmospheric CO2 level near to the half point of the feared doubling, the 2016 global temp anomaly (UAH RSS) only exceeded the previous record year of 1998 by .02 of a degree. Can any of you big brained catastrophists please explain why we are not at least .5 degree higher than 1998. The IPCC mid range prediction is 3.0 per century or.3 per decade. So at 1.8 decades why isn't it .54 higher given the slowing of outgoing LWR ascribed to CO2 along with the predicted positive feedbacks?

And forget the phony manipulated graphs.
monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 6, 2017 - 07:24pm PT
IPCC never said it should be .3 per decade now.

Strawman much Sumner?
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 6, 2017 - 07:26pm PT
You flunked Mono.

Next.
monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 6, 2017 - 07:32pm PT
Support your wild ass claims, Sumner.

You are lying about the IPCC claiming we should be .3 per decade NOW.


BTW, the surface record shows the difference of the peaks to be more like .35c, not .2c


Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 6, 2017 - 07:55pm PT

Can any of you big brained catastrophists please explain why we are not at least .5 degree higher than 1998. The IPCC mid range prediction is 3.0 per century or.3 per decade. So at 1.8 decades why isn't it .54 higher given the slowing of outgoing LWR ascribed to CO2 along with the predicted positive feedbacks?


the accuracy required to predict the climate trends is certainly much higher than your simple minded model with one parameter... this has been known for a long time... in addition, even a 20 year span is a very short time to see the changes against natural variability. As the natural variability is better understood, the predictive powers of the models increases...

the model runs from 4 years ago predict the range of temperature anomalies the various climate data products are tracking in time as shown by the graph:


you can accuse me of producing manipulated plots, but the data I used to make the plots is available to everyone, so you can actually prove your claim by demonstrating it in your own analysis...

...oh, except that you cannot.

So in the end, you are left with an opinion chosen from people you trust, and it is a blind trust as you have no way of verifying what it is they are telling you.

Srbphoto

climber
Kennewick wa
Jan 6, 2017 - 08:07pm PT
I never got what Curry's issues were,

Ed,

From what I read, it isn't as much the science as the behavior of the scientists that she has a problem with.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 6, 2017 - 08:09pm PT
Oh Dr Wrong.

You mean "the anthropogenic signal is rather feeble compared to the range of natural variation". Right, right.

You also seem to be saying that one cannot ordain the modeled climate on a mere 20 years of weather. So, what is it with offering of graphs of mere decades of direct observations (manipulated and tortured data at that) along with for proof of trends of climate meant to manifest itself in centennial scales? You can't have both ways friend. People are onto that tired old song and dance. People are onto decreases of temp anomalies in historic reconstructions.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Jan 6, 2017 - 09:44pm PT
Can any of you big brained catastrophists please explain why we are not at least .5 degree higher than 1998.

Abnormal melting of polar ice is moderating warming for sure. This will make things more even-keel for quite awhile. The warmer things get, the faster it melts. Once the polar air/water conditioners are gone though, we are gone. It will be exciting for awhile before that though. Drill baby drill!
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 6, 2017 - 10:24pm PT
The only problem with your thesis, McHale, is that Antarctica has been growing ice mass, Greenland ice mass much above levels of the MWP, and Arctic sea ice mass loss well within the range of historic variability. That leaves mountain glaciation, a tiny percentage of global totals, which are still within the range of historic variability. This is proven by carbon dating of ancient remains as the receding mountain glaciers reveal. What has been proven wrong are the numerous dire predictions and the monotonous rise of temps as result of increasing atmospheric CO2 levels, regardless of the phony graphs built on fudged data presented here by the climate catastrophists.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 6, 2017 - 10:29pm PT
You also seem to be saying that one cannot ordain the modeled climate on a mere 20 years of weather. So, what is it with offering of graphs of mere decades of direct observations (manipulated and tortured data at that) along with for proof of trends of climate meant to manifest itself in centennial scales? You can't have both ways friend. People are onto that tired old song and dance. People are onto decreases of temp anomalies in historic reconstructions.


what?


here you have the predictions, rick, with the data trending right along with them... all with various scenarios of CO2 emission...

the models cannot predict volcano activity, so that adds a variability... but not so much apparently... and if I were to plot the latest model runs they probably track better...

The range of the various models are due to the CO2 emission scenarios, clearly there are many scenarios that give us much greater warming than others...

no torture going on here, except your broken-record complainy voice that hasn't changed its tune in years... the temps are still going up, and that is just what we expect.

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 6, 2017 - 11:20pm PT
Totally false Ed. Since the models were just as lousy hindcasting as predicting, the data has been fudged to give some semblance of agreement. Gone in your graph is the pronounced warming of 1910-50 ( which nearly matches the supposed anthropogenic warming of 1975-2000), the pronounced cooling of 1950-75. Didn't you learn anything from The Chief? He showed you true graphs, before adjustments, many times. Games about up. The oceans have released huge amounts of heat, the CO2 levels and magical positive feedbacks failed in their predicted impedance, the sun is going into a prolonged minimum where the unacknowledged, or unknown, negative feedbacks will hold sway, and if that is not enough the new regime appears to be decidedly unfriendly to CAGW science.

You guys had better prey for another super El Nino. Failing this, the signs are all flat to downwards for GTA.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 6, 2017 - 11:29pm PT
oh rick, those crayon graphs that The Chief used to put up here?
you're kidding... but then, you couldn't tell the difference, could you... except that you agreed with whatever schtick The Chief was playing here...

and really, you haven't changed at all...

the Sun is "cooling" this entire time and yet the temps go up!
and you have some sort of convoluted reasoning you have to summons to keep your sorry story going, fortunately not based on any science.

but, once again, you cannot actually back up any of your accusations about graph manipulation, can you... you have no idea.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Jan 7, 2017 - 11:54am PT
On the rightly concerning issue of overpopulation in Ca (and in general), this article:

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/dan-walters/article123894519.html


Slowing immigration and lower birthrates continued to reduce growth in the new century’s first decade and in this one as well – from 2 percent a year in the 1980s to about one-third that rate today.

Foreign immigration has dropped sharply, and we now lose more people to other states than we gain, with Texas the No. 1 destination for ex-Californians.

Most interestingly, the state’s birthrate has declined to 12.42 babies per 1,000 population, down more than a percentage point from 2010 and the lowest in California history.

Meanwhile, the aging of the baby boom generation – the oldest boomers are now 70 – means an increase in the state’s death rate to 6.71 per 1,000.

Births minus deaths, dubbed “natural increase,” still account for more than two-thirds of California’s population growth, but as the gap narrows, it slows growth.

California’s current growth rate, about 0.7 percent a year, is scarcely a third of the nation’s fastest-growing state, Utah, which posted a 2.03 percent gain between 2015 and 2016. It’s also less than half of the rate in rival Texas.

In my mind, this is a very good trend. It would be great to see the state move into the "declining population" category, which I think will happen.

I worry, though, about the concept I'd previously posted about, where public health officials specifically posted about doing things to boost the birthrate through various incentives. That is idiocy.

I've talked about how this can have a dramatic effect in reduction of generational poverty in the big cities (and it is), but I've seen no one write about how this can impact the "rust belt" po' white trash phenominon, but I have to think it could.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Jan 7, 2017 - 11:58am PT
Another interesting trend: Cremation:

http://www.npr.org/2017/01/07/508668016/more-families-choosing-cremation-for-departed-loved-ones


I have always thought that burial is an insane practice. It PERMANENTLY removes land from useful purpose, even preservation, to create an artificial turf-grass area that is basically used for nothing. PERMANENTLY. Look at what we do when we discover native-american burial sites: Preservation!

Damn it, they are dead---they don't care. Spread the ashes in a nice ceremony, take some pictures.

Somewhere around 240,000 Californians die each year. That's a lot of turf-grass generated. Roughly the size of Arlington National Cemetery every two years......
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Jan 7, 2017 - 12:03pm PT
I guess on the bad side of the population equation is the effort that the GOP is about to undertake to defund Planned Parenthood, the largest provider of reproductive planning in the nation.

http://www.scpr.org/news/2017/01/07/67887/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-coming-fight-over/

Perhaps that will help strike a blow for more pregnant and barefoot teenagers in the American heartland.......
jgill

Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
Jan 7, 2017 - 04:26pm PT
I've talked about how this can have a dramatic effect in reduction of generational poverty in the big cities (and it is), but I've seen no one write about how this can impact the "rust belt" po' white trash phenominon, but I have to think it could

So, Ken, for the welfare queens in big cities it's "reduction of generational poverty", while those in the heartland are "po' white trash". You are exhibiting the sort of urban superiority complex that irritates those of us "deplorables" who live in flyover country and makes us thankful for the Electoral College.

And this connects to a major problem I mentioned before: How to separate climate science from political correctness in the minds of large numbers of average Americans. Excessive science preaching doesn't help, nor does bringing in class divisions, race, or sexual orientations.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Jan 9, 2017 - 08:35pm PT
www.ifallyoupostisregurj.net
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Jan 11, 2017 - 07:07am PT
How to separate climate science from political correctness in the minds of large numbers of average Americans.

Condescending is the current game plan of the GW alarmists. I hope they stick with it.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 11, 2017 - 09:21am PT
Condescending is the current game plan of the GW alarmists.

interesting take on it... if you decide you will not listen to a scientific explanation, and the person explaining that science to you doesn't back off their claim that you don't know what you are talking about, you could define that as an attitude of arrogance by a condescending elite class.

Of course scientists by the nature of their success in their fields are "elite," they have succeeded in mastering that field at a very high level.

Are you suggesting that they don't point out arguments that are scientifically wrong?
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 11, 2017 - 03:18pm PT
Whatever Lysenko.^^^^^
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Jan 11, 2017 - 04:11pm PT
Of course scientists by the nature of their success in their fields are "elite," they have succeeded in mastering that field at a very high level.
Are you suggesting that they don't point out arguments that are scientifically wrong?

Just keep believing how elite you are Ed.

dirtbag

climber
Jan 11, 2017 - 05:21pm PT
Jesus Christ...you're butt hurt because someone who knows what he is talking about is correcting you.

Free advice: there are people who know a lot more about things than you. Yes, there really are. You'd be wise to put aside your insecurities about elitism and listen up.

pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Jan 11, 2017 - 05:47pm PT
For Ed to believe every scientist is the best in their respective field(s) simply because they have a degree is wholly ignorant of the definition of the word "Elite"

Like I stated before. I think you, Ed and his ilk should continue to believe you are smarter than everyone else.
This strategy seems to be working fine for the rest of us.

dirtbag

climber
Jan 11, 2017 - 09:02pm PT
For Ed to believe every scientist is the best in their respective field(s) simply because they have a degree is wholly ignorant of the definition of the word "Elite"

Like I stated before. I think you, Ed and his ilk should continue to believe you are smarter than everyone else.
This strategy seems to be working fine for the rest of us.


No, I'm not smarter than everyone else. That's why I listen: you should try it and learn something.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 11, 2017 - 09:57pm PT
I really don't know how to respond to pud...

I am fine with someone like Tom Brady, or Stephen Curry, or David Price being athletes, elite in their sport, or with someone like Tommy Caldwell being elite in climbing, they demonstrate it by performing.

I am not saying that just because you have a degree you are smarter... (although those people seemed to be fairing in the current economy much better).

I am saying that the elite scientists are elite because they are better thinkers and doers in their fields.. they are smarter. You can object to that, take offense at that, deny that, but it is true, they are elite in the same sense the athletes are, and they put the time and effort, and are born with considerably positive attributes to be able to do that, and succeed in a very competitive field.

If you feel condescended on, it's your problem.

I don't think I am condescending here, certainly I engage in discussion, if I thought it was a waste of time and you weren't all worthy I'd go somewhere else... but if anyone says anything stupid, at least in my field, you get called out, a graduate student can to a professor, a researcher to a Nobel Prize winner, that status doesn't mean anything, what means something is your ideas, your work, your science.


If you are saying that some average Joe on the street understands climate science at the level that the scientists engaged in the effort understand it, then you are woefully misinformed, you are simply wrong.

That is not to say that that Joe couldn't understand it, and those scientists love to explain what they are doing... but really, if you go off on some bizarre rant like "it's the Sun" without thinking that those scientists already looked at that in tremendous detail, then you deserve to be chastised.

I am happy for you to decide that you want to keep putting CO2 in the atmosphere because it supports your lifestyle, knowing that it has a huge affect on the climate.

While China is now the largest emitter of CO2 into the atmosphere, the majority of the CO2 there is due to the USA and it's activities over this last half century. To a large extent, we have climate change because of the choices we made, perhaps unknowingly in the past, but now very evident.

We can decide that we're going to continue to do it whatever anyone else says.

But it will change the climate. You can't get out of that...

Oddly, the voices often proclaiming that we should take personal responsibility are the very same saying that there is not anthropogenic climate change. It is rather odd. Confronted with the fact that there is, and the realization that the USA has put the majority of it into the atmosphere, the reaction is to blame the scientists rather than taking personal responsibility.



rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 11, 2017 - 10:48pm PT
There are savants, there are idiots, there are travelers, sometimes all three rolled into one.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 12, 2017 - 07:00am PT
Ed - I think pud's point is that much of the discussion in political circles, as well as scientific ones, involve personal attacks... especially towards anyone skeptical of any aspect of "consensus" thinking. Either they're deniers or idiots. Denier connotes an intentional refusal to acknowledge or accept facts. So, either they're liars or idiots. Honest informed skepticism isn't an option.

Climate researchers, who challenge consensus thinking, become pariahs in their field. They point out it's career suicide for young scientists to challenge the orthodoxy. I've heard this from Judith Curry, Roger Pielke, Sr. and most recently William Happer.

It's about drowning out dissent, by whatever means.

Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Jan 12, 2017 - 07:17am PT
...I think pud's point is that much of the discussion in political circles, as well as scientific ones, involve personal attacks... especially towards anyone skeptical of any aspect of "consensus" thinking. Either they're deniers or idiots. Denier connotes an intentional refusal to acknowledge or accept facts. So, either they're liars or idiots.

Climate researchers, who challenge consensus thinking, become pariahs in their field. They point out it's career suicide for young scientists to challenge the orthodoxy. I've heard this from Judith Curry, Roger Pielke, Sr. and most recently William Happer.

It's about drowning out dissent, by whatever means.

You're making a huge mistake by equating scientific discussion to political discussion. Skepticism in science is good--in fact it's a requirement, but refusal to acknowledge or accept scientific facts should bring ridicule. This is true to a much lesser extent in politics where "facts" are somewhat squishier.

Curt
dirtbag

climber
Jan 12, 2017 - 07:32am PT
There's a difference between well informed skeptics and cranks.
pyro

Big Wall climber
Calabasas
Jan 12, 2017 - 07:34am PT


Pud your inappropriate..lol
Sometimes these elite intelects have to be brought back down from the clouds by some reasonable manager.


Ed im still figuring out how to use a calculator
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Jan 12, 2017 - 07:51am PT
Pyro's volcano meme has, of course, already been fully debunked but repeating the same lie over and over again has been well demonstrated to fool people who don't know any better.

Curt
dirtbag

climber
Jan 12, 2017 - 07:58am PT
This cartoon sums it up;

http://www.newyorker.com/cartoons/a20630
pyro

Big Wall climber
Calabasas
Jan 12, 2017 - 08:01am PT
Curt it was produced by the russians..
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Jan 12, 2017 - 08:50am PT
The best thing these climbing forum superior intellects can do to oppose their own argument is to keep telling everyone how smart they are and how dumb those that disagree with them are.
The referenced scientific data proves humans have an effect on the climate.
Nothing else.

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 12, 2017 - 08:59am PT

"...and most recently William Happer.

It's about drowning out dissent, by whatever means."


what assumptions do you make about Will Happer? do you know the man (I do, but it's not like he's an old friend).

No one I know assails his physics research. His political opinions are another matter.

You seem to say his opinions regarding climate science have authority because he is an established scientist. Of course he has no scientific authority in climate science, he hasn't done any.

If you look at someone who had an equally negative view of climate science, Richard Muller, he dug in and did some good scientific work, and he reported it... his view now is quite different than the one he had when he started.

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 12, 2017 - 09:02am PT
Ed im still figuring out how to use a calculator

too bad for you... apparently you're grammar challenged too...
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 12, 2017 - 09:22am PT
The referenced scientific data proves humans have an effect on the climate.
Nothing else.


I may misunderstand your statement, but if you are saying that the science hasn't considered alternative hypothesis you are incorrect. Science, also, doesn't "prove" anything... though it is perhaps more subtle than you or anyone else cares to delve into... rather, the hypotheses for other, potential causes, have been tested and they failed the test.

If you want a more literary explanation for this process, you can appeal to Sherlock Holmes' quote:
“Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.”

Hypothesis testing is "eliminating the impossible" and the hypothesis that human activity causes climate change has not been eliminated. Right now, there are no other hypotheses to explain the 20th & 21st century climate that pass the test.

And while you might object "well maybe something will come up to explain it other than what we think now?" given the risk that this alternative doesn't exist AND the consequence of inaction at this time implied by the current hypothesis, it would seem we are compelled to act based on our best understanding of the situation NOW.

As we learn more, we can modify our response... but the consequence of not acting now and the likelihood that our current picture is correct commits us to fixing a bigger problem later, if it can be fixed at all. This last bit is not alarmist, it is the statement that we do not know all the ramifications of the current, very rapid, climate change.

This period of climate change is unmatched in the history of Earth's climate. There is no information we have regarding what will happen to Earth's climate if the current change continues. It would be prudent to consider that when deciding what policies we should propose and execute in the coming years.

If "we" decide that "we" want to roll the dice and hope that everything will "work out fine" in the future, we should do it with the full understanding that the dice we are rolling are well understood by the science, and once we roll what is likely to come up has been studied.

Do you roll dice in Vegas?
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 12, 2017 - 11:54am PT
"This period of climate change is unmatched in the history of Earth's climate ".

My, my Ed. You are delusional. Put down the koolaid jug amigo.

"Policies to execute". To hell with executing policies. Why not just execute the charlatans pushing this scam. How many deaths are they already responsible for ?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 12, 2017 - 07:19pm PT
pud writes:

The best thing these climbing forum superior intellects can do to oppose their own argument is to keep telling everyone how smart they are and how dumb those that disagree with them are.


since he seems to categorize me as "a forum intellect" I would challenge him to produce posts where I told everyone how smart I was and how dumb they are to disagree with me...

should be easy, no?
7SacredPools

Trad climber
Ontario, Canada
Jan 12, 2017 - 07:56pm PT
Why not just execute the charlatans pushing this scam. How many deaths are they already responsible for ?

Care to elaborate?
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Jan 12, 2017 - 08:02pm PT
it's ok,

some can't acknowledge 23.7 was an inaccurate prediction when the physical and measured result, no disputation and just 100 hours later, was 12.8.

The fact that the number was reset later, based on new data, did not make the older prediction accurate, but acknowledged it's inaccuracy, or there would have been no need to change the number. If the original prediction were 12.8, then you could say it was correct.

NOAH predicted 23.7 feet, the real number was 12.8

Shed your pride, or your NOAH worship, and just simplify your life by telling the truth.
They erred.

so of there is a crack in the Holy Grail of NOAH accuracy, is it possible to have a question about other models they have generated?

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 12, 2017 - 08:49pm PT
Ed B, you're posting to the wrong thread and it's NOAA not NOAH.

Yeah 7. All the head honchos of the CAGW/Big Green industry should be rounded up and face trial for crimes against humanity at the Hague. How many elderly, poor or disabled in developed countries have already had to choose between food and "neccessarily skyrocketing" utility bills; then having chosen the former ultimately died from direct effects of suffering in the cold. How many of the third world poor have died from lung disease's due to the efforts of the CAGW/Big Green industry to deny them access to modern FF power?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 12, 2017 - 08:50pm PT
maybe you intended this for the other topic,

but given the data, the model projection to the date that this would happen was accurate... and the data the model had at the time forecast a large flow.

yet that very same model, with refined data, predicted something very different, and much more "accurate." With the additional information of the probability we could interpret what the level of accuracy was for the forecast, and compare that against the actual value.

no one thought to look at the probability information at the time, though it was a web click away.

Without this more nuanced information (and for those who might be wondering what this about, go look at the yosemite to flood??? thread) you cannot judge whether or not the disagreement of the forecast made 100 hours before the event was to occur is within the precision of the forecast.

It is not wrong to provide a forecast and the uncertainty of that forecast, as was done in this case. Unfortunately, no one was paying attention to that probability information... so we don't know what it was (but perhaps with some more digging it can be found).

But go ahead and make your claims regarding NOAA, you might take the time to read about what they do, and in particular, what this forecast model is... all the information is linked off of the pages I provided on that other thread.

And there is a discussion of the analysis of comparing their forecasts with what actually happened. You'd think that might be relevant to someone making the claim that the models are "wrong," wouldn't you?
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Jan 12, 2017 - 08:53pm PT
FF power isn't a right...It's a privaledge...Spiro T. Agnew is rolling over with all the elite psuedo intellectuals posting on this thread..
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Jan 12, 2017 - 10:13pm PT
the prediction was different than the result...


if you cannot acknowledge error, the discussion has no further purpose.

amazed

Rick, a little humor goes a long way... so thanks.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 13, 2017 - 12:13am PT
I'm neither amazed nor surprised that that you do not have any concept of how to quantify uncertainty in a forecast.

Also amazed that you do not understand what that particular forecast was for, or how it was made, and apparently have no interest in the details.

You seem only to be interested in insisting that because they didn't predict the exact number, they are wrong.

I do agree that it is unlikely that the discussion can move beyond that.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 13, 2017 - 06:02am PT
Not really following this battle of the Ed's to closely, but the published prognostications are conclusive. Ed B is the winner and Ed H the loser again. In his refusal to ever admit fault with the foundational ideology of his new age religion (the scientism scriptures of transnational progressivism) he reveals himself again as a steadfast irrationalist. I can't predict the future any better than one of his preferred prophets, Noah, but I'd be willing to bet that he eventually begins to sing a different hymn when the manna from heaven (Government funding through tax payer receipts) is reduced and the priests of Scientism wither in starvation.
Perhaps then we can expect accountability and the prognostications achieve an acceptable level of accuracy.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Jan 13, 2017 - 11:19am PT
There are many similarities between trump supporters and climate deniers.
They see themselves as truthseekers who are victims of "mainstream" media, and they have found their saviors in the alt-right. It is so easy now to get caught up in alt-right fake news sources popping off non-stop.

This article is about the trumpeters, but easily applies to deniers as well.
http://www.forwardprogressives.com/theres-one-simple-reason-pointless-try-reason-trump-supporter/

"I’m sure everyone reading this has experienced the painful task of trying to debate and/or reason with a supporter of Donald Trump at some point or another. It’s an experience that often leaves me feeling as if I’ve just spoken with someone who’s either been brainwashed by a cult or is legitimately crazy. In all my years debating politics with my Republican counterparts, I’ve never experienced anything quite like dealing with people who can literally watch a video of Trump saying or doing something
...
If he lies, they’ll reject any source that debunks him. If he contradicts himself, they’ll make excuses for his contradiction. If he sells them something completely ridiculous (such as asking the taxpayers to pay for his wall, claiming Mexico will “pay for it later”), they’ll blindly believe that ridiculous scam without thinking twice.

If he lies, they’ll reject any source that debunks him. If he contradicts himself, they’ll make excuses for his contradiction. If he sells them something completely ridiculous (such as asking the taxpayers to pay for his wall, claiming Mexico will “pay for it later”), they’ll blindly believe that ridiculous scam without thinking twice.
They. Simply. Don’t. Care. 

These people have been indoctrinated by Fox News and right-wing blogs replete with conspiracy theorists and propaganda that most of them would really rather elect a puppet of Putin than a Democrat. Many of them honestly believe that people like Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are worse than someone like Vladimir Putin.
They don’t care if Trump had to lie, cheat, or even get help from the Russian government to win — which is the only reason why he barely won — just as long as he won.
It’s a sad time in this country. We’re dealing with millions of people who, instead of being supporters of a political party, are really nothing more than brainwashed members of the largest cult in human history. People who reject facts, science and indisputable reality because none of those things tell them what they’ve been indoctrinated to believe.
That’s why it’s impossible to reason with them — because you’re not dealing with people who possess the ability to be reasonable.

tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Jan 13, 2017 - 01:47pm PT
Two perspectives on how/why trump was elected, one from Liberal Redneck Trae Crowder...
[Click to View YouTube Video]

and the other from Slovenian Marxist Philosopher Slavoj Zizek...
[Click to View YouTube Video]
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Jan 13, 2017 - 02:18pm PT
the prediction was different than the result...


if you cannot acknowledge error, the discussion has no further purpose.

amazed

The annoying thing about phrasing it this way is calling it an "error".

If I predict that the most likely outcome of flipping a coin four times in a row is that there will be at least one "heads", I'm not in "error" if you get tails all four times. The prediction didn't come true, but I didn't make a mistake.

If somebody typed the wrong data into their model, that would be an "error". That their best prediction, at the time, with the available data was off by a factor of two, is not in itself an error.

Should they do a better job of showing confidence levels and all that? Perhaps.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 13, 2017 - 05:23pm PT
Should they do a better job of showing confidence levels and all that? Perhaps.

they do... you just have to go to the right webpage and use the information...



monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 13, 2017 - 10:05pm PT
Trump meets with physicist who says global warming is mostly natural and will be good for us.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/01/13/trump-meets-with-princeton-physicist-who-says-global-warming-is-good-for-us/?postshare=5581484341731458&tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.1f2152e9610f

Maybe he'll be the next presidential science adviser. What a hoot!
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 14, 2017 - 08:22am PT
Happer is a rationalist with extensive and impressive credentials. Dr. Roy and Lubos Motl vouch for him. It would be good to get a non CO2 religion scientist advising the president.
Ed, can you offer up any slander of your fellow physicist?
monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 14, 2017 - 08:27am PT
Maybe RFK Jr, can advise Trump on vaccines as well.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 14, 2017 - 09:59am PT
Ed, can you offer up any slander of your fellow physicist?

I think Will Happer is his own best enemy in matters of politics...
...he should stick to physics.

He's already been in science-management positions and proven to be ill suited for that role. As long as I have known him he has cultivated a puckish iconoclastic personality. Sometimes it works, most times it seems rather petty.

Though given this incoming administration's desire to "shake things up" he is an understandable candidate for a position (who knows which one). And he does have a very high opinion of himself, something of a prerequisite for consideration it seems...

It will have little affect on the course of science, though it may signal the end of US preeminence, especially when coupled with a restrictive immigration policy, the demise of the educational system, and a withdrawal from international engagement.

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 14, 2017 - 10:30am PT
^^^^The gift that keeps on giving.
But, does he support nuclear energy like you apparently do? Was he on board with defusing the hysteria over Fukushima contamination? He can't be all bad, what with a chair in Physics at Princeton and over 200 publications. Can't you see beyond your big Green bias/religion enough to offer up anything in his defense?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 14, 2017 - 10:41am PT
Can't you see beyond your big Green bias/religion enough to offer up anything in his defense?

I'd have to think about some specifics a bit, but there are worse choices. Once again, what's the position, science advisor? The president is free to choose who would advice him.

Can you name the current science advisor, and what specific piece of policy, or administration action can be tied to him (and it is a him).

pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Jan 14, 2017 - 10:51am PT
With Trump's administration GW Alarmists will soon need to find another worry. They have lost.
I hear there's an large asteroid on it's way here,
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 14, 2017 - 10:53am PT
With Trump's administration GW Alarmists will soon need to find another worry. They have lost.

you can't vote out science, pud, global warming isn't going away because of some election in the USA. And I doubt that research efforts will change very much under the new administration.





rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 14, 2017 - 10:53am PT
I thought Holdren was a tranny. His malthusian hysteria led him to amputate his third member lest he further soil Gaia with toxic spawn. Besides that he's a lost cause, enemy of AK, indeed enemy of mankind. Sorry, no redeeming positive qualities.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 14, 2017 - 10:55am PT
Most science advisors have very limited influence, Happer would be no different. His main challenge in that position would be not steeling the scene from his boss.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 14, 2017 - 11:16am PT
Right and right.You can't vote out science. However, you can starve out wasteful theoretical deadenders and support applications that better the human condition. Increased nuclear energy research and application is a good middle ground to both sides of the debate, of course that excludes the really rabid big Green supporters
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 14, 2017 - 11:35am PT
However, you can starve out wasteful theoretical deadenders and support applications that better the human condition.

You can't tell what is "wasteful" and what is "productive" and neither can Will Happer or anyone else. But it is a distinctly American attitude that posits that there is such a thing as wasted basic research.

Most Americans were unaware of the basic "nuclear science" research that was happening at the turn of the 20th century, and would have considered it "wasteful." American scientists had to travel to Europe to learn the basics of the science, the USA was a backwater of research in most fields, and especially the newly emerging science of quantum mechanics, atomic physics, nuclear physics and chemistry. All of the US physicists who would become prominent in the 1940s and beyond were trained in Europe because they could not obtain that training in the USA.

By and large, you would consider their research to be "wasteful" because it did not have direct application.

However, basic research is the foundation of applied research, and without the basic research you would have no applications.

Two amazing aspects of the Manhattan project were the importance of having European scientists engaged in the project, them having to have escaped from Germany and its territories due to political persecution of the "elite classes" and racial prejudice, AND the construction of a basic research infrastructure to support the application to a weapons program.

It was not a bygone conclusion that the construction of that infrastructure would be completed in time to "beat the Germans" to the atom bomb. The scientific leadership that succeeded for the allies was taken from the "elite class" of scientists who practice basic science, and lead by a theorist, no less, who's work prior to the Manhattan project would earn your scorn as being "wasteful."

The conclusion coming out of the war was that the nation needed a strong basic science infrastructure, concluding that the risk of not having that infrastructure, of laboratory facilities and more importantly, of the trained scientists was too great to not support; that the unknown aspect of the crisis for which we will have to respond to scientifically was unknown, so a broad science base was needed; and finally that the support for the basics science program should not in any way decide what science direction was... that we need to strive for preeminence in the science.

All this planned for the day that, when we faced a crisis, we would not need to depend on the luck of having those scientists from other nations to provide crucial contributions to our need nor wait for the infrastructure required to be built.

That was, in my opinion, a wise policy and program, especially given that we cannot define what is "wasted" in basic research, essentially none of it is when viewed from a much larger perspective than the rather limited opinion of the short term, direct, return-on-investiment for the small fraction of the national economy it represents.

Most economists believe that supporting this research is properly done by the government.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 14, 2017 - 12:10pm PT
Can't define what is wasted in basic research-BS. Keep your eyes open. I believe a definition will be delivered by the new department heads in short order.
monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 14, 2017 - 12:37pm PT
Maybe the donald will cut NSIDC funding to halt the elites from wasteful data gathering.

Global sea ice area reaches new record low, with a month of decline to go.

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 14, 2017 - 12:54pm PT
Can't define what is wasted in basic research-BS. Keep your eyes open. I believe a definition will be delivered by the new department heads in short order.

I doubt that they new department heads will do anything in short order. As for what their opinion of "BS" is, it will change, as it always has, when they learn what is going on. Your opinion is based on your very imperfect concept of how federal research is managed, and you will be disappointed when what you expect to happen, based on your erroneous understanding, fails to come to pass.

in response to TGT's post, I don't think that the scientific input to policy is the only input, but I do believe that if you are going to ignore the scientific input, you should say so and give the reasons. Time will tell if that particular input was apt or not (although in some cases we hope that we will never have a chance to demonstrate it).

Fearing the "scientific elite" is a strange boogie-man to put up, especially for TGT who basically holds the scientific elite as incompetent bunglers, at least the ones that he is familiar with, one wonders how they hold the strange powers to convince. The two options appear to be that the system is rigged or that they are competent. TGT's choice is apparently obvious... his opinion may be wrong, of course.

But the nation depends on that elite to provide it preeminence in an area it cannot afford to loose.

An example might be the very atomic science Happer pursues and its application to quantum information research. We don't know whether or not we can build quantum computers with the theoretical performance that has been projected. But if we could, it would revolutionize cryptography, basically providing a means to break all of the current cryptographic tools, which depend on "uncomputability" for their security, that is, the fact that it would take too long for conventional computers to break those codes.

To the extent that we depend on cryptography for our national security in many areas, quantum computing achieving the theoretical limits would be very disruptive.

The research question is: can you build such a computer?

The value of the answer, whether it is positive or negative, is important. Yet if the answer is negative, you might claim that all the basic research leading to that answer, and to no application, is wasted.

This would be a very naive view, of course. Knowing that it cannot be done would relieve us of having to mitigate the eventual practical implementation of such devices. But also the basic research leading to such a conclusion would be available for other applications. And the people who did the research are available to do more should the need arise.

Much of this work is done understanding the quantum behavior of various atomic systems, relatively far removed from any immediate application.

The scientific elite is doing this (an elite that Happer would claim membership to)... if you want them to leave there are many ways of doing that, not so many ways of building back the capability once they do.
perswig

climber
Jan 14, 2017 - 01:12pm PT
Dr. H, a standing ovation for your patience. Truly remarkable.

Dale
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 14, 2017 - 02:31pm PT
Only exceeded by politicians? I beg your pardon TGT, Eddie has consistently argued that scientists shouldn't be accountable for anything, least of all taxpayer largesse they consistently flush down the toilet.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Jan 14, 2017 - 03:27pm PT
Currently as N Division leader (a position he holds since 2002) he oversees the basic and
applied research activities in Nuclear Physics, Particle Physics and Accelerator
Technologies. An important aspect of this activity is to seek alignment between the basic
research goals of the division and the goals of LLNL’s programs in nuclear weapons
stewardship, nonproliferation, homeland security and the National Ignition Facility.

All I can say is that you better hope that Ed is very well funded, and that he does a magnificent job.

You get the sense from the right that they hope for disasters and terrorist events.

Thanks, Ed, for the work you do in protecting all of us, and finding pathways forward.
monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 14, 2017 - 03:45pm PT
Trump debunks the impact of hairspray on the ozone layer.

[Click to View YouTube Video]
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 14, 2017 - 03:59pm PT
I beg your pardon TGT, Eddie has consistently argued that scientists shouldn't be accountable for anything, least of all taxpayer largesse they consistently flush down the toilet.

ignorance again, rick, as you have no idea what accountability we have... while I am no longer N-Division leader, we had to explain how basic research like Lattice-QCD or Dark Matter Searches or the Search for the Higgs particle had to do with the applications we are called on to develop.

This accountability was performed by the programs we were working on as well as external, independent review at many levels. The people doing the reviews were not susceptible to being BS'd by scientists.

In addition, the basic science we did also had to meet the high standards of the research community, and did as evidenced by the publication record of the division, and many other markers of performance.

I have made the choice to go back to research, which is largely applied, on the NIF, but the current scientific management is doing an excellent job maintaining vital activities in both basic and applied research. No tax-payer moneys are misspent in this at the lab. Having sat on reviews at other labs, and participated in research there, I can say that the lab complex delivers important research, applied and basic, to the nation.

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 14, 2017 - 08:40pm PT
You aren't doing climate research; now are you Ed?

I wasn't aiming my criticism of scientists waste directly at you. Rather the morons in CAGW community you continually defend. How you can do that has always been a bit of mystery to me. I just pass it off as deep green indoctrination and watermelon political philosophy. To each his own, live and let live unless ones practice and persuasions infringes upon your neighbors right to a free, natural life. A free life that this CAGW scam, a major component/tactic of a larger front, is hell bent on limiting for the common man.

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 14, 2017 - 08:43pm PT
I actually know what they are doing, I go to some seminars and can talk to them when I have a question. I can read the papers with comprehension.

They are doing first rate science at a first rate research institution.

You have no idea what you are talking about, rick, and you don't care to know, or learn, which is sad but not entirely surprising.
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Jan 14, 2017 - 09:32pm PT
Another hole in "arguments" put forth by climate change deniers.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/01/04/noaa-challenged-the-global-warming-pause-now-new-research-says-the-agency-was-right/?utm_term=.ca6c0471d8e1

Curt
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 14, 2017 - 10:55pm PT
"They are doing first rate science".

Hundreds,no thousands of scientists disagree with your assessment by varying degrees. A few of the more prominent- Lindzen, Happer, Dyson, Plimer, Curry, Spencer, Humlum, Svenson, Abdussamatov, Christy, Kirkby, Shaviv, Lockwood, Akafuso and on and on. Many of these individuals have spent much more time than you studying it. Why, again are they all wrong?

Never mind. We've all heard it many times before and you haven't convinced a single skeptic, or denier if you prefer, yet.




Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 15, 2017 - 01:58am PT
the vast majority of scientists doing climate science, and those scientists looking at the work disagree with you rick.

from Wikipedia:
"Happer was listed as a signer of the petition of the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine, no later than 2000,[10] and Cato Institute's 2009 letter.[11] With Fred Singer, Harold Lewis, Robert Austin, Larry Gould, and Roger Cohen, Happer led[12] the 2009 petition[13] to the American Physical Society to change its position statement on climate change. The petition was signed by only a few hundred of the 47,000 members and was rejected.[14]"

a few hundred is less than 1% of the American Physical Society membership.

Your "legion" of skeptics does not form its ranks from US physicists. And world wide, might rise to as much as a Roman legion, if you count medical doctors as "scientists" (which I would not) and "weathermen" (even expanding that to "weatherwoman").





tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Jan 15, 2017 - 02:18am PT
Here's the trailer to the 2016 documentary film "The Age of Consequences" on the global security implications of climate change...

[Click to View YouTube Video]

This film assesses the relative contribution of climate change on a broad range of events around the world from a military and global security perspective. It is a very comprehensive and compelling analysis.

Here's the Center for Climate and Security's Risk Assessment report
http://www.csap.cam.ac.uk/projects/climate-change-risk-assessment

from the Executive Summary...

DIRECT RISKS: The risks of climate change are non-linear: while average conditions may
change gradually, the risks can increase rapidly. On a high emissions pathway, the probability of
crossing thresholds beyond which the inconvenient may become intolerable will increase over
time.

• For any emissions pathway, a wide range of global temperature increases is possible. On all but
the lowest emissions pathways, a rise of more than 2°C is likely in the latter half of this century. On
a medium-high emissions pathway (RCP61), a rise of more than 4°C appears to be as likely as not by
2150. On the highest emissions pathway (RCP8.5), a rise of 7°C is a very low probability at the end of this century, but appears to become more likely than not during the course of the 22nd century. A rise of more than 10°C over the next few centuries cannot be ruled out.

• Humans have limited tolerance for heat stress. In the current climate, safe climatic conditions for
work are already exceeded frequently for short periods in hot countries, and heat waves already cause fatalities. In future, climatic conditions could exceed potentially lethal limits of heat stress even for individuals resting in the shade. The probability of exposed individuals experiencing such conditions in a given year starts to become significant for a global temperature rise of around 5°C, and could exceed 50% for a global temperature rise of around 7°C, in hot areas such as northern India, southeastern China, and southeastern USA.

• Crops have limited tolerance for high temperatures. When critical thresholds are exceeded, yields may be drastically reduced. The probability of crossing such thresholds in a given year, for studied examples of maize in the Midwestern US and rice in southern China, appears to rise from near zero at present, to become increasingly significant with global temperature rise of more than 2°C, and in the worst cases to reach somewhere in the region of 25% (maize) and 75% (rice) respectively with global temperature rise of around 4-5°C.Biophysical limits on the extent to which such tolerance thresholds can be raised may be an important constraint on adaptation. This is one reason why high degrees of climate change could pose very large risks to global food security.

• Thresholds for water stress are largely arbitrary, but thresholds of ‘moderate’, ‘chronic’ and ‘extreme’ water shortage are widely used, based on per capita availability. The number of people exposed to extreme water shortage is projected to double, globally, by mid century due to population growth alone. Climate change could increase the risk in some regions: for example, on a high emissions pathway, the probability of the Tigris – Euphrates river basin falling into extreme water shortage could rise significantly after 2030, reaching close to 100% by 2070.

• In South and East Asia, climate change may slightly offset otherwise increasing risks of water stress, while increasing the risk of flooding. On a high emissions pathway, what is now a ‘30-year flood’ could become three times more frequent in the Yellow River and Indus basins, and six times more frequent in the Ganges basin, over the course of the century, on a central estimate. In the worst case for those three river basins, such a flood could be in the region of ten times more frequent by the end of the century.

• On a high emissions pathway, the incidence of extreme drought affecting cropland could increase by about 50% in the US and South Asia, double globally, and triple in southern Africa, over the course of the century under central estimates. The uncertainties around these central estimates are large: for the US and South Asia, in the best case, drought incidence could halve; in the worst case, it could increase by three or four times.

• With 1m of global sea level rise, the probability of what is now a ‘100-year flood event’ becomes
about 40 times more likely in Shanghai, 200 times more likely in New York, and 1000 times more likely in Kolkata. Defences can be upgraded to maintain the probability of a flood at a constant level, but this will be expensive, and the losses from flooding will still increase, as the floods that do occur will have greater depth. Thresholds of adaptation beyond which ‘retreat’ from the sea may become more feasible than further increases in flood protection are not well defined, but the most significant limits may be sociopolitical rather than economic or technological.

• Climate models suggest that global sea level rise is unlikely to exceed 1m this century, and that a
plausible worst-case scenario could result in an increase of several metres by the end of the 22nd
century. However, due to inertia in the climate system, with a sustained global temperature rise of 2°C the global sea level may be committed to rise by some 10-15m as ice-sheets gradually melt, but whether this will take hundreds of years or thousands of years is deeply uncertain.

• Many elements of the climate system are capable of abrupt or irreversible change. Changes to
monsoons or to ocean circulation patterns, die-back of tropical forests, and the release of carbon
from permafrost or sub-sea methane hydrates could all cause large-scale disruption of the climate.
The probabilities of such changes are not well known, but they are expected to increase as the global temperature rises.
Pete_N

Trad climber
Santa Cruz, CA
Jan 15, 2017 - 09:02am PT
This discussion makes me wish that some of these folks declaiming the "waste" of federal research funds could sit in on a NSF panel or two. Funding for basic and applied science is so tight in my experience, that the idea of waste is mostly laughable. There's no doubt that we could do a better job of teaching the importance and the pleasure of basic research, but that'd require some measure of interest, at least for anyone over the age of 10. Try explaining why your NIH funding for studying chimpanzee facial expressions is NOT a waste of money!
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 15, 2017 - 09:09am PT
Why funding for smiling chimps is a waste of money?
One overriding and simple answer-experimentation on higher primates has been pretty much outlawed. The last ones were recently removed from Stonybrook. I know this because my daughters thesis was partially based on locomotion dara collected from those same smiling chimps.
Pete_N

Trad climber
Santa Cruz, CA
Jan 15, 2017 - 10:05am PT
Rick: You're conflating the legal, ethical and scientific rationale for primate research. I don't work with non-human primates any more, and haven't kept up with the legal issues. If you're interested in an excellent review of relatively recent efforts to address the ethical issues, see http://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1001291. Regarding the scientific rationale, we have learned a great deal about the evolution of behavior, for example, from the study of primates, including chimps. Why is this important? I think Vassily Grossman put it best in his book, "Life and Fate": 'The value of science lies in the happiness it brings to people. Our fine Academicians think that science is the domestic servant of practice, that it can be put to work according to Shchedrin's principle: 'Your wish is my command.' That's the only reason why science is tolerated at all. No! Scientific discoveries have an intrinsic value! They do more for the perfection of man than steam-engines, turbines, aeroplanes or the whole of metallurgy from Noah to the present day. They perfect the soul! The human soul!' Tell us more about your daughter's research--sounds interesting.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Jan 15, 2017 - 11:06am PT
Talking about global warming denial and primate behavior...

It is sometimes argued that a full assessment of the risks of climate change would be counterproductive, because the risks may be so large and the solutions so difficult that people will be overwhelmed with a feeling of helplessness, and will look the other way. In some cases, this may be true. The anthropologist Jared Diamond, in addressing the question:

‘Why do some societies make disastrous decisions?’, writes:
…consider a narrow river valley below a high dam, such that if the dam burst, the resulting flood of water would drown people for a considerable distance downstream.
When attitude pollsters ask people downstream of the dam how concerned they are about the dam’s bursting, it’s not surprising that fear of a dam burst is lowest far downstream, and increases among residents increasingly close to the dam. Surprisingly, though, after you get just a few miles below the dam, where fear of the dam’s breaking is found to be highest, concern then falls off to zero as you approach closer to the dam! That is, the people living immediately under the dam, the ones
most certain to be drowned in a dam burst, profess unconcern. That’s because of psychological denial: the only way of preserving one’s sanity while looking up every day at the dam is to deny the possibility that it could burst. Although psychological denial is a phenomenon well established in individual psychology, it seems likely to apply to group psychology as well.

The premise for writing the [Center for Climate and Security's Risk Assessment] is that we can all choose whether or not to look up at the dam. Governments can choose either to ignore it, or to send their best experts to inspect it closely. We have taken the view that it is better to be well informed than not. As the American nuclear strategist Albert Wohlstetter wrote during the Cold War,
“We must contemplate some extremely unpleasant possibilities, just because we want to avoid them.”
dirtbag

climber
Jan 15, 2017 - 11:17am PT
Rick, pud etc. are lost causes. You can't reason with them, they are a bundle of arrogance and insecurities. We have to defeat them.
jgill

Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
Jan 15, 2017 - 02:19pm PT
Your "legion" of skeptics does not form its ranks from US physicists. And world wide, might rise to as much as a Roman legion, if you count medical doctors as "scientists" (which I would not) and "weathermen" (even expanding that to "weatherwoman")

Oh no! As an ex "weatherman" I must take exception!

;>)

I went through the U of Chicago meteorology program at the end of the 1950s, before it disappeared from the curriculum about 1961. The most interesting courses were in atmospheric physics (mostly DEs that my classmates who were EEs were better at solving than me) and fluid dynamics (the most intriguing in my opinion). The "basket weaving" course was climatology, wishy-washy and speculatively rambling, almost like a class in the humanities.

I left the USAF in 1962 and immediately had a GS11 offer from the USWB, which I politely declined, deciding to become a mathematician instead.

That part of climate science - a significantly improved version of the old climatology - that is not probability-related involves non-linear, coupled differential equations (since aspects of the atmosphere influence one another). Most of these DEs can only be solved numerically, and back in the late 1950s that was not so easy to accomplish.

These days my Lenovo Thinkpad on the dining room table can do the job quickly running a simple BASIC program I wrote. Coupled, non-linear DEs can produce surprising results. Here is a simple example (having no connection to the climate): z=x+iy and w=u+iv,

dz/dt = w+1/w and dw/dt = x(siny+cosx)+iy(siny-cosx)

See how the two DEs are intimately connected, hence "coupled"? w depends upon z and z upon w.

This pair of DEs produces an image of an angel on the head of a pin: Azreal in the space [-.01,01]



Don't be frightened! Angels and demons can be interchangeable.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Jan 15, 2017 - 02:50pm PT
And only demons can do one armed pull ups...
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 17, 2017 - 10:35am PT
This toe dipping of yours is a good start jgill. The seriousness of the situation requires active participation of the thus far silent majority lest the country and developed world slide into totalitarian oppression from which extrication will be improbable for decades to come.

You realize, of course, that this science is largely false and just a vehicle of choice to reach a select few's goal of a world order where a new aristocracy of properly aligned and connected pols and the rabid monied interests that aid their rise are enabled in establishing their new order. It won't be pretty.

If successful, this new cabal, will make your kids and grandkids lives much less promising than that which you have enjoyed. For their sake please dive into this shark tank and take these phony plastic fish on.

Every little bit helps, even here on this back water blog.
c wilmot

climber
Jan 17, 2017 - 11:37am PT
The only way to reduce the pollution caused by humans is to reduce the population. Since our economy and the rich folks who benifit from it is reliant on an ever increasing population that is not going to happen.
The only way to reduce the population while not harming the long term accumulation of wealth is through war..

Any talk of carbon taxes etc... is just flufff to delay the inevitable.
There is a reason our gov spends untold amounts of money to "study" a problem they have no intention of fixing
Al Barkamps

Social climber
Red Stick
Jan 17, 2017 - 12:24pm PT
If successful, this new cabal, will make your kids and grandkids lives much less promising than that which you have enjoyed. For their sake please dive into this shark tank and take these phony plastic fish on.

This makes NO sense....how would this new cabal get rich off providing a crappy future for everyone else?
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Jan 17, 2017 - 01:04pm PT
"Any talk of carbon taxes etc... is just flufff to delay the inevitable."

WRONG
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 17, 2017 - 01:06pm PT
You're assuming they want to get richer than they already are after providing a very crappie present to a current majority of serfs, AL. Furthermore, a lot of people assisting them (the disaffected, including many wannabe scientists better suited for underwater basket weaving ) are true kooks motivated by their malthusian nightmares much more than money. See Holdren for a prime example.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Jan 17, 2017 - 01:34pm PT
You're downright kooky, Rick Sumner. Not unlike the President-elect.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 17, 2017 - 03:20pm PT
Kooky because of what Eeyonkee? Is it because I take climate change seriously- the scam that it is I mean. Before marching lockstep down the consensus road perhaps you should examine the issue thoroughly yourself.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Jan 17, 2017 - 03:58pm PT
The only way to reduce the pollution caused by humans is to reduce the population.

Manifestly proven untrue. A few examples:

Is the air in Los Angeles cleaner than 50 years ago? More or less people?

More or less pollution by automobiles? More or less people?

More or less pollution in Ca from state power sources? More or less people?

Although it is certainly true that reducing the population CAN be ONE way to reduce pollution, it is certainly not the only one, and in fact, has not been the most common one.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Jan 17, 2017 - 03:59pm PT
the disaffected, including many wannabe scientists better suited for underwater basket weaving

My experience with the scientists I meet, which is weekly, is certainly not that they are disaffected.

Rick, that group would be YOU.
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Jan 17, 2017 - 05:15pm PT
Reducing consumption is a good start.
The idea of reducing population is a bit more complicated as I probably have the same carbon/consumption footprint as 30 rural Africans. The lifestyle of the population in question is very important.
Leo DeCaprio is concerned for the planet but his carbon footprint is probably astronomical.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 17, 2017 - 06:31pm PT
Right. The alarmists should be allowed to continue their hypocrisy. After all, they care.
monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 17, 2017 - 06:55pm PT
Gore's carbon footprint is very negative, considering how much awareness he's responsible for.
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Jan 17, 2017 - 06:59pm PT
Another post by malamute proving his predictive accuracy.

Malemute

Sep 19, 2016 - 07:02am PT
Pacific Ocean’s response to greenhouse gases could extend California drought for centuries

http://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/pacific-oceans-response-to-greenhouse-gases-could-extend-california-drought-for-centuries



Another GW Alarmist that is totally WRONG.
His referenced link is a perfect example of the 'credible science' used by these hand wringing paranoids.

rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Jan 17, 2017 - 07:03pm PT
There's no such thing as climate change...People are making this sh#t up....
monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 17, 2017 - 07:04pm PT
Pud thinks a good start to a winter every 5 or 6 years means we are not in a drought and 60 million trees will somehow rise from the dead.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Jan 17, 2017 - 08:23pm PT
...Yeah Baby..Take that TGT...!!!
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 18, 2017 - 06:16am PT
monolith

climber
state of being

Jan 17, 2017 - 06:55pm PT
Gore's carbon footprint is very negative, considering how much awareness he's responsible for.

Yeah.... and it's okay for Trump to grope women, considering how many people he employs.

Derp.
monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 18, 2017 - 06:59am PT
You sound so buttsore, Sketch.
Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Jan 18, 2017 - 07:10am PT
take it easy on Sketch. it's not easy being wrong all the time.

EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 18, 2017 - 10:27am PT
You sound so buttsore, Sketch.

For mocking your stupidity?

Nice projection.

And then there's Wade.... always blowing sunshine up my ass.
Cragar

climber
MSLA - MT
Jan 18, 2017 - 10:37am PT
It read more like hazy skies above a fog layer but you obviously have a sensitive ass and might know better.
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Jan 18, 2017 - 03:18pm PT
We've had a cap & trade law - whose stated purpose was to address climate change - on the books in California for ten years now. Apparently, it's having no positive effect on the climate if we're setting records like that year after year after year.



jgill

Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
Jan 18, 2017 - 04:14pm PT
If you live in the British Isles worry about the Gulf Stream abandoning you. Welcome to polar times. Do what you can to mitigate this eventuality by riding your bikes and sharpening your sled runners. Good luck.
dirtbag

climber
Jan 18, 2017 - 04:54pm PT
Apparently, it's having no positive effect on the climate if we're setting records like that year after year after year.



I see you've given this a lot of thought.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 18, 2017 - 05:11pm PT
If a thorough housekeeping at NASA, NOAA, GISS is actually conducted these "warmest years ever" hype will vaporize. Maybe then they can actually get back to their assigned tasks.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 18, 2017 - 09:58pm PT
We've had a cap & trade law - whose stated purpose was to address climate change - on the books in California for ten years now.

except we haven't... but you like to keep bringing incorrect statement time and again...

you wouldn't be a troll now, would you Chaz?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 18, 2017 - 09:59pm PT
If a thorough housekeeping at NASA, NOAA, GISS is actually conducted these "warmest years ever" hype will vaporize. Maybe then they can actually get back to their assigned tasks.

these will not "disappear" rick,

their assigned task was to provide climate prediction, when they went to do that they found they couldn't without including human activity... this is a conclusion of their research, not the motive... but then you wouldn't know, you can't read the work.

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 18, 2017 - 11:27pm PT
Wrong Ed, only one, NOAA, was tasked with climate studies. The other two were aeronautics and space agencies. This perversion of repurpose extends into many additional agencies as well. Excising this monstrosity is a monumental task and will require active support by John and Jane Q. Public.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 18, 2017 - 11:42pm PT
NASA usually takes the responsibility for its space bound devices... supporting the mission from the very initial proposal stage through the science it does.

And so much of climate is measured from space that saying it isn't NASA's mission is a statement that seem so strange, but perhaps not coming from you, rick.

You can look up the legislation that created NASA, you will find that The Space Act directs NASA to:
• Plan, direct, and conduct aeronautical and space activities;
• Arrange for participation by the scientific community in planning scientific measurements and observations to be made through use of aeronautical and space vehicles, and conduct or arrange for the conduct of such measurements and observations;
• Provide for the widest practicable and appropriate dissemination of information concerning its activities and the results thereof;
• Seek and encourage, to the maximum extent possible, the fullest commercial use of space;
• Engage in a program of international cooperation; and
• Encourage and provide for Federal Government use of commercially provided space services and hardware, consistent with the requirements of the Federal Government.

as you can see in the second bullet, conducting measurements and observations are totally in the description.
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Jan 19, 2017 - 08:01am PT
Dr Hartouni writes:

We've had a cap & trade law - whose stated purpose was to address climate change - on the books in California for ten years now.


except we haven't... but you like to keep bringing incorrect statement time and again...

you wouldn't be a troll now, would you Chaz?



Where am I incorrect?

The Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, signed into law by Gov Schwarzenegger in 2006, in California.




After investing $2 billion annually in higher fuel prices because of the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006...

http://ad36.asmrc.org/sites/default/files/districts/ad36/files/2016%20LAO%20Cap%20and%20Trade%20Cost%20Estimates.pdf

...and seeing record global average surface temperatures year after year after year like those in Malemute's post, it doesn't take a troll to wonder if there isn't a better way to spend that money.

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 19, 2017 - 08:40am PT
The Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, signed into law by Gov Schwarzenegger in 2006, in California.

what are the provisions of that bill? especially the schedule of enactment?
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Jan 19, 2017 - 08:45am PT
You haven't answered my last question yet.

What part of the sentence you highlighted and said was "incorrect" is incorrect?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 19, 2017 - 09:01am PT
the Act was scheduled for enforcement in 2012, though signed into law in 2006...

so it's been 5 years of reduction for the 12th largest emitter, 2% per year through 2015, and now 3% per year through 2020.

the estimated social cost of CO2 is $36/tC02 in 2015, that is about $0.09/gal of gasoline, the study you linked had it around $0.11/gal, which is within the range of variability (since California regulates using a market rather than a tax the costs vary with the market).

So in these terms, you and I are just paying the cost of venting our automotive exhaust into the atmosphere... if you want to pay less, use less.
monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 19, 2017 - 09:10am PT
California emits about 1 percent of global co2 emissions, so expecting California efforts to halt the record setting temps is ludicrous. But someone has to lead the way.
c wilmot

climber
Jan 19, 2017 - 09:15am PT
So the folks who have been forced into places like Stockton but still work in SF should pay more because they have to travel farther to work?. And the rich folks driving teslas and living downtown less?

Is this the same thought process behind telling the poor to buy a new car when their old one no longer passes the smog test?
While rich folks cruise around in their exempt 60's corvette?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 19, 2017 - 09:29am PT
everybody has to hook up to the sewer system, they pay for that...

there are provisions in the Bill mentioned above to make the costs progressive.

But would you allow people to dispose of their sewage by dumping it into the gutter because they were "poor" and might be stretched to pay the bill?
c wilmot

climber
Jan 19, 2017 - 09:33am PT
Never heard of a leach field?

City folk just don't get it...: )

Edit: I did not say anything about poor peoples poop. I simply pointed out the ways in which I feel California's approach to climate change has often been done in manners that completely ignore the plight of the poor. Like the smog laws which have exemptions for vintage cars because well- the people passing the laws wouldn't want to have THEIR vintage car illegal. Of course a side effect is that loophole is often used to legally drive rigs that emit far more emissions than vehicles deemed illegal for not passing the smog test.
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Jan 19, 2017 - 10:07am PT
We know higher fuel taxes disproportionately impact the poor. Living among the wealthy in places like Livermore and Redlands, we can sometimes forget about the poor. You and I have never let the price of gas keep us from doing what we want when we want. We're blessed.

But from time to time I deal with folks who have a hard time just paying their rent, and the couple hundred dollars in added yearly fuel expense would go a long ways toward their financial peace of mind if it were in their bank accounts instead of in the hands of carbon hustlers.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 19, 2017 - 10:33am PT
That's a good one Chaz.
And old Eddie is a cheap where for the carbon hustlers.
monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 19, 2017 - 10:34am PT
DMT, all the choices have their downsides. Don't expect Trump to offer a nation solution.

California is largest enough from a tech and economy leadership role to have influence on an international scale in finding the solutions.
Cragar

climber
MSLA - MT
Jan 19, 2017 - 10:48am PT
I wish my fellow voters would understand California is not a country.

Good luck with that!!

I remember seeing a funny bumper sticker when I was a kid:
"There is no Life East of I-5"

An attitude that probably isn't going anywhere, pun intended.

EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 19, 2017 - 10:58am PT
Don't expect Trump to offer a nation solution.

Like the solutions offered by Obama?

What were they, again?
monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 19, 2017 - 11:11am PT
Obama was a part of a global solution. Thats more important and easier then trying to get Texas to to agree to a cap and trade system.

And thanks for checking in, Sketch.

BTW, his EPA efforts amount to a national level solution effort.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 19, 2017 - 11:21am PT
Hooray for rhetoric!
monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 19, 2017 - 11:56am PT
Speaking of the EPA, looks like the cleansing will begin soon as expected.

"The incoming Trump administration's EPA transition team intends to remove non-regulatory climate data from the agency's website, including references to President Barack Obama's June 2013 Climate Action Plan, the strategies for 2014 and 2015 to cut methane and other data, according to a source familiar with the transition team. Additionally, Obama's 2013 memo ordering EPA to establish its power sector carbon pollution standards “will not survive the first day,” the source says, a step that rule opponents say is integral..."

https://insideepa.com/daily-news/trump-transition-preparing-scrub-some-climate-data-epa-website

more info here:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/d87iw3qdvljr3ws/Trump%20Transition%20Preparing%20To%20Scrub%20Some%20Climate%20Data%20From%20EPA%20Website%20_%20InsideEPA.pdf?dl=0

"The transition team's preparations fortify concerns from agency staff, environmentalists and many scientists that theTrump administration is going to destroy reams of EPA and other agencies' climate data. Scientists have been preparingfor this possibility for months, with many working to preserve key data on private websites"
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Jan 19, 2017 - 02:44pm PT
C Wilmot wrote:
"So the folks who have been forced into places like Stockton but still work in SF should pay more because they have to travel farther to work?. And the rich folks driving teslas and living downtown less?"


They should all pay the same revenue neutral carbon tax. The revenue brought in can be paid out thru reduced income taxes on the working class + increased earned income tax.
No one should be exempt from paying for their carbon use. Should a poor person who doesn't drive suffer the externalities imposed by someone who does?
And also, all driving on all roads should also have electronic sensors to pay a real time toll per mile, higher amounts at rush hour.

Is this the same thought process behind telling the poor to buy a new car when their old one no longer passes the smog test?


It would be a GREAT idea if smoggy cars paid much more in yearly licensing fees.

While rich folks cruise around in their exempt 60's corvette?


It would be a great idea to put much more regulation on those old exempt cars like muscle cars and VWs, many of which are owned by the working class.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Jan 19, 2017 - 02:56pm PT
following up on what monolith posted ^^^

There's a large scale effort underway to archive decades of climate science data before the Trump administration comes to power, including "a guerrilla archiving event" on servers outside the US. The "Data Refuge" effort is a large collaborative effort, with—including the Internet Archive and, as you mentioned, the folks in Toronto, as well as researchers, scholars, librarians, citizen scientists from many different places, basically creating safe channels for data that is currently stored and made accessible through federal websites and through the federal government to move to new locations so that it can—we can continue to ensure access to these facts for research. It’s also an effort to raise awareness of the value of this data and of how data is preserved and shared today.

https://www.democracynow.org/2016/12/29/scientists_scramble_to_protect_decades_of

http://www.ppehlab.org/
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 19, 2017 - 09:50pm PT
Never heard of a leach field?

sure, I had one when I lived in the country... but I was required to have one, it wasn't a choice, and it wasn't inexpensive to maintain.

Your point?

c wilmot

climber
Jan 19, 2017 - 10:03pm PT
It was a joke ed (farmers only?)..
Though if pressed my point would be that not everyone is required to be hooked up to the sewar system and depending on the zoning laws a leach field might not be needed either.
And In my opinion leach fields are anything but expensive to maintain. you hire a guy to pump it out every few years. Far cheaper than the $30 a month I used to pay to flush my toilet in Redding ca..

My 2 cents...nothing to fret over






monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 20, 2017 - 10:09am PT
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Jan 20, 2017 - 11:27am PT
^^^
the new great science will be published in tweets, like all great information, with orange font on orange background.
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Jan 20, 2017 - 11:28am PT
^^^^ The 21st Century version of book burning. And so it begins.


Curt
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Jan 20, 2017 - 01:38pm PT
So the folks who have been forced into places like Stockton but still work in SF should pay more because they have to travel farther to work?. And the rich folks driving teslas and living downtown less?

It is a shame that it is so hard to build additional residential housing in urban environments. Any place that has a BART station should, if it is not already, be surrounded by tall apartment blocks (with retail/office on the ground floors as appropriate).
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Jan 20, 2017 - 06:56pm PT
Dingus...where's my hug...? rj
c wilmot

climber
Jan 20, 2017 - 08:21pm PT
Dingus- they did move... to Stockton from Oakland and other east bay areas. The rising rents forced them to do so to attempt to better themselves and their way of life..


Carbon taxes mean little if you have plenty of cash and the wealth to afford a fossil fueled electric car...


monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 20, 2017 - 10:19pm PT
Electric car CO2 footprints in various countries and a couple states.

http://shrinkthatfootprint.com/electric-cars-green

California, great. Colorado not so great.
Lollie

Social climber
I'm Lolli.
Jan 21, 2017 - 04:18am PT
Literally, the question in the caption?

It's how humankind keeps population in check. (Well, besides war). An Ark-of-Noah way to do things.
It weeds out those who needs to be weeded out. Most af humankind, actually. :-D


The Arctic is 20 degrees Celcius hotter than expected this winter. It's started to change pretty fast, faster than anyone expected. It's also equivalent of a 7 meters (approx 21 ft) rise of sealevels. That's mindboggling, so let's just forget that. It can't happen. No need to do anything rash, right? :-)

Well....
but all that non-frozen ice has to go somewhere though, doesn't it? Planet Earth is a limited space.

It's already past a one meter raise, now we're heading for 2 meters.
You know, the rising is a slow process. Shows first when it's high waters, then slowly establishing itself as a new normality.

Here, since a decade back nobody is allowed to build a new building below 2.7 meter above sea-level, we're in the process of raising it to 3 meters. Last week we had high sealevels, the wind was onward land. There were a few low bridges under water. There were homes that had water upon their lawns. No storm, nothing. Just an "ordinary" high sealevel day.


I believe in being a drop in the sea.
What I personally can do is only a drop in the sea. But the sea is made out of drops.


Rj, you can have a hug from me instead. Will that do? I'm way much softer and nicer hug than that huge block.


Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Jan 21, 2017 - 06:20am PT
In regards to the topic question, which is, I suppose, at the heart of the matter: We like our way of life. The freedom, the comfort. Let's face it. It's freakin' nice! As climbers, we often travel buttloads more than the average person, maximizing our carbon footprints.

Case in point: I read a profile of a new, young, very good climber who lives in the Midwest. She loves the climbing in Virginia, so she makes the SEVEN HOUR ONE WAY drive virtually every weekend to get in a day and half of climbing. Fourteen hours of driving. Every weekend. Personally, I think that's crazy, but clearly it's worth it to her. To really change things, you'd have to change that behavior--for ALL of us. Then you have to convince the rest of the world that they don't ever get to have that kind of freedom. Good luck. I think we are just going to have to adapt to whatever comes. If we're lucky, some paradigm changing tech will come along, but that looks to be too little too late if the gloomy predictions are true.

BAd
canyoncat

Social climber
SoCal
Jan 21, 2017 - 09:23am PT
I don't understand why Trump (and his EPA pick) object to California setting more stringent emissions standards for ourselves? We've been doing that since the 1960's. If we are willing to pay more for our cars, pay more for our fuel, why does he even care? Does he just hate that we set the bar and make the rest of the country look lame?

During a congressional hearing Wednesday, Pruitt said the government would not commit to letting California set more stringent vehicles emissions standards through a federal waiver.
c wilmot

climber
Jan 21, 2017 - 09:29am PT
Because it hurts the poor who can't afford a new car. And because California's emission laws have exemptions which often allow vehicles to be legal that emit far more emissions than cars deemed illegal. All because lawmakers didn't want THEIR vintage car to be illegal. But that single mom with a 2004 car that would be legal in 49 other states? She is told to buy a new car...


I mean, what's the big deal?

Everyone can afford a new rig....right?
Let them buy new cars...



rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Jan 21, 2017 - 09:35am PT
Canyoncat... I think pruitt wants to sell more gas in California...More profits...Thanks so much for the hugs...The LUG...
pyro

Big Wall climber
Calabasas
Jan 21, 2017 - 10:50am PT
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 21, 2017 - 10:51am PT
^^^^maybe you can start, pyro
pyro

Big Wall climber
Calabasas
Jan 21, 2017 - 02:00pm PT
tgt like your link im sure Ed will be entertained because of the T and A..

monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 22, 2017 - 07:35am PT
Fairbanks, subzero temps

monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 22, 2017 - 08:22am PT
Yes, it's a giant conspiracy, TGT.

Thanks for all those cold weather reports that expose this absurdity.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 22, 2017 - 10:14am PT
Precise summation TGT
Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Jan 22, 2017 - 12:50pm PT
Under what we can do, the list is predictable. So is the fact that most people won't do it, especially climbers. That cragging try to Klymnos? Not. Ah, another shot at K2? Fuggetaboutit. Those 14 hr. round-trip driving expeditions to the Red? Not anymore. Move to higher ground, folks. That's about it. All the rest is pixels and posts signifying nothing.

BAd
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 23, 2017 - 06:54am PT
"Of all species that have existed on Earth, 99.9 percent are now extinct."
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 23, 2017 - 09:43am PT
an interesting statement, I think it can be attributed to SC Stearns at Yale, but there is not a direct connection, I haven't read the Stearns & Stearns book on extinction, which popularized, in 1999, the observation of the dramatic decline of large animal species...

the number of species is an interesting scientific question, here is a relatively recent estimate of the number on Earth now:
http://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1001127

it's not clear that "species" is the right categorization, but presuming that it means a distinct combination of genes that can reproduce, methods of estimating the total number of species would have to have some model for grouping the total number of living things.

The largest group of living things is thought to be the prokaryotes
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC33863/

the vast majority of the current species are prokaryote, so it is probably a good place to start when trying to make the estimates of total number of species that have ever existed.

Similar estimates can be made regarding large species.

From that you get the denominator, of the 0.001 number or existing species...

I think that making statements like the one above is fraught without much more description of how the estimate was made.


however, the current extinction is quite dramatic.

The area of the US had once been a very biologically diverse place, yet the relatively recent incursion of humans, everywhere has stressed that biological system. This was made very real by a map appearing in this recent article:
A global map of roadless areas and their conservation status
in Science.

The abstract:
Roads fragment landscapes and trigger human colonization and degradation of ecosystems, to the detriment of biodiversity and ecosystem functions. The planet’s remaining large and ecologically important tracts of roadless areas sustain key refugia for biodiversity and provide globally relevant ecosystem services. Applying a 1-kilometer buffer to all roads, we present a global map of roadless areas and an assessment of their status, quality, and extent of coverage by protected areas. About 80% of Earth’s terrestrial surface remains roadless, but this area is fragmented into ~600,000 patches, more than half of which are [less than] 1 square kilometer and only 7% of which are larger than 100 square kilometers. Global protection of ecologically valuable roadless areas is inadequate. International recognition and protection of roadless areas is urgently needed to halt their continued loss.

The global map exists in that paper, I've cropped out the Americas:


Europe and Japan have similar road densities.
Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Jan 23, 2017 - 10:10am PT
Precise summation TGT

from an alternate fact checker.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Jan 23, 2017 - 11:05am PT
add 1 more species to the list...

Neopalpa donaldtrumpi is a moth species of the genus Neopalpa occurring in Southern California and Northern Mexico. It was first described by Canadian scientist Vazrick Nazari in January 2017. He chose the name because the moth's head cover reminded him of the hair of Donald Trump and he hoped that the name might create some publicity for underappreciated small animals.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neopalpa_donaldtrumpi


tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Jan 23, 2017 - 04:01pm PT
on a more serious note...this commentary titled Climate research must sharpen its view

Nature Climate Change (2017)
doi:10.1038/nclimate3206
Published online 16 January 2017

Here we argue that basic climate research can sharpen its view by casting the challenges ahead into a few simple yet powerful guiding questions:

first, where does the carbon go?

Second, how does the weather change with climate?

And third, how does climate influence the habitability of the Earth and its regions?

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3206.html
pyro

Big Wall climber
Calabasas
Jan 27, 2017 - 06:54am PT
This thread will get shut down by the new administration.. lol
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 27, 2017 - 07:47am PT
At the current rate of growth in CO2, levels will hit 500 ppm within 50 years.

Look who's leading the way...


tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Jan 27, 2017 - 09:47am PT
EdT: that map appears to have significant data gaps...especially Russia, Brazil, N Africa, Middle East...only 4 or 5 stations in India. Nonetheless I think the general conclusion is correct...sh#tload of pollution from China. Probably would be more red stations if India, Pakistan, Iran, S Arabia & Iraq & E Europe had more spatial coverage.

Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Jan 27, 2017 - 10:35am PT
Those are maps of soot, not CO2. Both are issues, but are not the same. Some soot travels long distances, but it affects the immediate downwind population the most, somewhat like groundwater pollution. CO2 & other GHGs become global quite quickly.
It is more difficult to track the actual point sources of pollution and soot, so taxing products to add this external cost is more difficult than taxing GHG emissions. It will be quite a first step to even add a GHG emission equalizer tax to world trade (where the USA is one of the worst emitters), much less the other types of pollution (where the USA isn't so bad), and of course unlikely in a trumphoax universe.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 27, 2017 - 11:27am PT
Good idea, Dingus.

Get the US, Canada, UK and EU on board, it might just have a significant impact. Tax emerging markets on the back end. Make it worth their while to aggressively move to cleaner energy production.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Jan 27, 2017 - 03:06pm PT
but it affects the immediate downwind population the most, somewhat like groundwater pollution
but on drastically different time scales and exposure pathways
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Feb 1, 2017 - 08:22am PT
An Open Letter to President Donald Trump and His Administration

We the undersigned are calling on you, in the most urgent terms possible, to maintain our country’s commitment to meeting the greenhouse gas emission targets set forth in the Paris Climate Agreement. This agreement is the first of a series of steps required to avert substantial climate change. The Earth’s climate is entering a state that has not been experienced in human history. Continuing to produce greenhouse gases at current rates will have catastrophic, unstoppable consequences for our environment, our economy, and our country. Bold and decisive action may still avoid the worst scenarios, allow for adaptation to the changes, mitigate the damage, and bring new economic opportunities to our country. To this end, we ask that you ensure America’s place as the global leader on climate action.

With this letter, we aim to express the degree to which the scientists and intellectual leaders of our state, speaking for themselves and not on behalf of their respective employers, agree on the facts of climate change. Despite misleading portrayals, there is widespread consensus in the scientific and academic communities that human-caused climate change is real, with consequences that are already being felt. The science of how greenhouse gases trap heat is unimpeachable. Climate records are being broken as human-caused changes add onto natural oscillations (e.g., El Niño) in the climate system. Fossil records from pre-human times show much higher sea levels and a reorganization of vegetation patterns when greenhouse gases were higher and Earth’s climate was much warmer than today. Increasing levels of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere set in motion regional variations in weather, weather extremes, the loss of major ice sheets, and declining biodiversity that has been associated with mass extinctions in Earth's past.

Scientists have warned for decades of the dangers of overreliance on fossil fuels. The world has been slow to respond and, as a result, we run an increasing risk of major damage to America’s economy and security. We have had an unusually large number of serious natural disasters in the past decade that are in line with climate change predictions. The Southeast and West suffer from increasing droughts. Miami floods at high tide as sea levels rise. Major cities on the Eastern and Gulf coasts regularly suffer major damage from violent weather. Western forests die because winters are insufficiently cold to prevent insect infestation of drought-stressed trees. Left unchecked, the frequency and severity of these climate change events will increase with time, as will their economic impact. To secure and conserve our way of life, our economy, and our environment, we need immediate action.

The United States now has a unique opportunity to lead the world in developing innovative ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. By investing in and incentivizing clean energy and carbon sequestration technologies now, we position ourselves to be the economic and political leaders of the 21st century. To do otherwise cedes these opportunities to others and undermines our national security, food security, water security, and the future of our children and grandchildren. For these reasons, we ask you to maintain and increase our country’s commitment to taking action on climate change, beginning with the current Paris Climate Agreement.

Signed by 2344 faculty members, listed on the following pages.

https://docs.google.com/document/u/1/d/1PKBnTWIGk__YNnmDqaO_7ckSK_s5P3J2Gygy7WTQCfY/pub
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Feb 1, 2017 - 08:40am PT
Denmark's plan to transition to a fossil fuel free economy by 2050...

Ya, I know, US is NOT Denmark...

I'm afraid that this is the Trump administration's vision...;-(
Tricouni

Mountain climber
Vancouver
Feb 1, 2017 - 11:14am PT
tuolumne_tradster,

Interesting. Can you post a link to that chart/diagram, please?
Thanks...
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Feb 1, 2017 - 11:38am PT
Tricouni: here's the reference...

Energy Strategy 2050 – from coal, oil and gas to green energy
Summary February 2011:8

The Danish Ministry of Climate and Energy
Stormgade 2-6
1470 Copenhagen Denmark

ISBN printed publication 978-87-92727-15-2
ISBN electronic publication 978-87-92727-16-9

This publication can be downloaded
and ordered on www.ens.dk
and via www.kemin.dk

If you click on this link it will download the *.pdf

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&ved=0ahUKEwiZsM6y0u_RAhUEx7wKHQXMDh0QFggtMAQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fdfcgreenfellows.net%2FDocuments%2FEnergyStrategy2050_Summary.pdf&usg=AFQjCNGgahtLtyhA4SQ5hEvmeCbRkZd9qQ&sig2=Q_68OqHbg71XR00lsqQn

Here's a link summarizing the impact the Danish strategy will have on the average household...
http://denmark.dk/en/green-living/strategies-and-policies/the-impact-of-the-energy-strategy-2050-on-the-danish-consumer
Tricouni

Mountain climber
Vancouver
Feb 1, 2017 - 12:31pm PT
Thanks. This is a ray of sunshine in what's a pretty bleak time for me right now.

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Feb 1, 2017 - 04:35pm PT
I'm not too much concerned with AGW anymore. What, with Exxon Mobil CEO at the helm of State Dept, the foremost state AG litigating against EPA soon to be in charge of the EPA, and Trump as Chief Executive. I breathe easier in the belief that now is when the global temperature breaks and the seas recede.
monolith

climber
state of being
Feb 1, 2017 - 04:53pm PT
monolith

climber
state of being
Feb 3, 2017 - 03:41pm PT
monolith

climber
state of being
Feb 3, 2017 - 06:46pm PT
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Feb 3, 2017 - 06:51pm PT
I'm going to quote a bit from the article Malemute posted
about the danger of waiting any longer to act. Those who can only handle 140 characters may exit now and return to watching the alt universe.

Basically one of the lead economists has changed his mind that it was better to wait until renewable technology was perfected until taking much action. Even in 2007 this was a dubious claim since by then there were already available choices such as highly efficient hybrid cars, toll roads, and lower-fossil fuel power, and carbon taxes. He has adjusted all his variables so that now his predictions are similar to the IPCC.

"Some people who study climate change believe that addressing it later -- when economic growth has made humanity wealthier -- would be better than taking drastic measures immediately. Now, though, one of this group's most influential members appears to have changed his mind.

In the early 1990s, Yale's William Nordhaus was among the first to examine the economics of reducing carbon emissions. Since then, he and colleagues have mixed climate physics with economic modeling to explore how various policies might play out both for global temperatures and growth. The approach attempts to weigh, in present-value terms, the costs of preventative measures against the future benefit of avoiding disaster.

Nordhaus has [as of 2007 - see link] mostly argued for a small carbon tax, aimed at achieving a modest reduction in emissions, followed by sharper reductions in the medium and long term. Too much mitigation now, he has suggested, would damage economic growth, making us less capable of doing more in the future. This view has helped fossil fuel companies and climate change skeptics oppose any serious policy response.

In his latest analysis, though, Nordhaus comes to a very different conclusion. Using a more accurate treatment of how carbon dioxide may affect temperatures, and how remaining uncertainties affect the likely economic outcomes, he finds that our current response to global warming is probably inadequate to prevent temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius above their pre-industrial levels, a stated goal of the Paris accords.

Worse, the analysis suggests that the required carbon-dioxide reductions are beyond what's politically possible. For all the talk of curbing climate change, most nations remain on a business-as-usual trajectory. Meanwhile, further economic growth will drive even greater carbon emissions over coming decades, particularly in developing nations.

Nordhaus deserves credit for changing his mind as the results of his analyses have changed, and for focusing on the implications of current policies rather than making rosy assumptions about the ability of new technologies to achieve emission reductions in the future...
Nonetheless, the shift in his assessment is stark. For two decades, the advice has been to do a little but mostly hold off. Now, suddenly, the message is that it's too late, that we should have been doing a lot more and there's almost no way to avoid disaster.

Perhaps the main lesson is that we shouldn’t put too much trust in cost-benefit calculations, the standard economic recipe for making policy decisions.
In the case of climate change, they are inherently biased toward inaction: It's easy to see the costs of immediate emissions reductions, and much harder to quantify the benefits of avoiding a disaster likely to materialize much farther in the future. By the time the nature and impact of that disaster become clear, it may be too late to act."

2007 paper
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/homepage/documents/Nordhaus_stern_jel.pdf

Dec 2016 paper
"The present study finds the opposite result. When taking uncertainties into account, the strength of policy (as measured by the social cost of carbon or the optimal carbon tax) would increase, not decrease. "
Craig Fry

Trad climber
So Cal.
Feb 7, 2017 - 06:59am PT
Solar Could Beat Coal to Become the Cheapest Source of Energy

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/for-cheapest-power-on-earth-look-skyward-as-coal-falls-to-solar

Jan 3, 2017 - By 2025, solar may be cheaper than using coal on average globally, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. ... It's also driven by economies of scale and manufacturing experience since the solar boom started more than a decade ago, giving the industry an increasing edge in the competition with fossil fuels.


It's Official: Solar Is Becoming World's Cheapest Form of New Electricity

http://www.ecowatch.com/solar-cheapest-electricity-2156232780.html

Dec 19, 2016 - Solar power is becoming the cheapest form of electricity production in the world, according to new statistics from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). ... While unsubsidized solar has occasionally done better than coal ...

World Energy Hits a Turning Point: Solar That's Cheaper Than Wind ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-15/world-energy-hits-a-turning-point-solar-that-s-cheaper-than-wind

Dec 14, 2016 - World Energy Hits a Turning Point: Solar That's Cheaper Than Wind. ... But now unsubsidized solar is beginning to outcompete coal and natural gas on a larger scale, and notably, new solar projects in emerging markets are costing less to build than wind projects, according to fresh data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance.


Wind and Solar Are Crushing Fossil Fuels - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-06/wind-and-solar-are-crushing-fossil-fuels

Apr 6, 2016 - Record clean energy investment outpaces gas and coal 2 to 1. ... renewables vs fossil. Investment in Power Capacity, 2008-2015.

Solar Could Beat Coal to Become the Cheapest Power on Earth

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist 70 Years Speaking Knowledge to Power

http://thebulletin.org/solar-could-beat-coal-become-cheapest-power-earth10398


need I elaborate?
Solar is now the cheapest energy source available for new energy production
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Feb 7, 2017 - 07:24am PT
None of those Bloomberg links work for me.

Curt
Craig Fry

Trad climber
So Cal.
Feb 7, 2017 - 09:07am PT
I fixed the links
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Feb 7, 2017 - 09:16am PT
Uh oh!

Another black eye for the climate science community.

The Mail on Sunday today reveals astonishing evidence that the organisation that is the world’s leading source of climate data rushed to publish a landmark paper that exaggerated global warming and was timed to influence the historic Paris Agreement on climate change.

A high-level whistleblower has told this newspaper that America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) breached its own rules on scientific integrity when it published the sensational but flawed report, aimed at making the maximum possible impact on world leaders including Barack Obama and David Cameron at the UN climate conference in Paris in 2015.

The report claimed that the ‘pause’ or ‘slowdown’ in global warming in the period since 1998 – revealed by UN scientists in 2013 – never existed, and that world temperatures had been rising faster than scientists expected. Launched by NOAA with a public relations fanfare, it was splashed across the world’s media, and cited repeatedly by politicians and policy makers.

But the whistleblower, Dr John Bates, a top NOAA scientist with an impeccable reputation, has shown The Mail on Sunday irrefutable evidence that the paper was based on misleading, ‘unverified’ data.

It was never subjected to NOAA’s rigorous internal evaluation process – which Dr Bates devised.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4192182/World-leaders-duped-manipulated-global-warming-data.html#ixzz4Y1KJQtqD

Is Bates a paid off denier?

A disgruntled former employee?

Or a man of integrity?
monolith

climber
state of being
Feb 7, 2017 - 11:00am PT
Nah, just another tempest in a teapot, created by a tabloid hack that makes baseline mistakes.

EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Feb 7, 2017 - 11:30am PT
Right.

The end result justifies the means... even if that means side-stepping industry standards.

Nothing to see here.

Move along.
monolith

climber
state of being
Feb 7, 2017 - 11:33am PT

http://climatefeedback.org/sensational-claims-of-manipulated-data-in-the-mail-on-sunday-are-overblown/
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Feb 7, 2017 - 11:44am PT
Nothing to see here.

Move along.
monolith

climber
state of being
Feb 7, 2017 - 11:48am PT

https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-mail-sundays-astonishing-evidence-global-temperature-rise
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Feb 9, 2017 - 12:02am PT
However Bates, who acknowledges that Earth is warming from man-made carbon dioxide emissions, said in the interview that there was "no data tampering, no data changing, nothing malicious."

Major global warming study again questioned, again defended
By SETH BORENSTEIN and MICHAEL BIESECKER Feb. 7, 2017

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/recent-global-surface-warming-hiatus

Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus
Thomas R. Karl, Anthony Arguez, Boyin Huang, Jay H. Lawrimore, James R. McMahon, Matthew J. Menne, Thomas C. Peterson, Russell S. Vose, Huai-Min Zhang

Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records
Zeke Hausfather, Kevin Cowtan, David C. Clarke, Peter Jacobs, Mark Richardson and Robert Rohde

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Feb 9, 2017 - 07:13am PT
^^^^^ Artful obfuscation. Can you please quit slapping us with these phony hockey sticks.
Cragar

climber
MSLA - MT
Feb 9, 2017 - 07:23am PT
^^well, your rubber tomahawk couldn't scalp Mr. Potato Head, but keep on swinging!
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Feb 9, 2017 - 08:33am PT
I prefer to get my science information from the science literature, the Daily Mail isn't a place that I go to find reliable reporting on science (I do not read it with any frequency, actually, and probably only responding to some very odd articles it publishes). I don't believe the article even links to the original documents.

I've posted links to the the scientific evidence, it is there to see. If you can marshall scientific evidence that is contrary to the conclusions of those papers, please present it.




c wilmot

climber
Feb 9, 2017 - 08:47am PT
How would you figure out s carbon tax for say a ski ticket?
Is someone really going to figure out the true cost that should be applied to an individual skier based on their use of certain lifts and trails used?

How would it be applied?

Seems like a logistical nightmare full of potential loopholes
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Feb 9, 2017 - 08:53am PT
Libs don't like nuclear energy, so we've largely abandoned it.

Libs like hybrids, so we have them, despite the fact that we burn more coal and natural gas to fuel them.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/electric-cars-are-not-necessarily-clean/

http://www.mapawatt.com/2010/11/29/where-does-us-electricity-come

Libs like their red meat, so we mow down rain forests to create cattle ranches. (Libs should be the leading proponents of vegetarianism, but they are not.)

http://www.onegreenplanet.org/animalsandnature/beef-production-is-killing-the-amazon-rainforest/

http://www.energysavingsecrets.co.uk/more-energy-efficient-be-vegetarian.html

Libs believe that "it's obvious" that global warming is bad, very bad, so it must be bad, very bad.

Libs say "scientists say" to mean "some scientists say" particularly when they are "quoting" some scientists who are making value judgments over which science has no particular expertise.

In fact, during the majority of the earth's geological history (as best we can tell) the earth has been much warmer than it now is, and we are coming out of the most recent ice age.

Since the Cambrian era, we are now in a period marked by fewer species than have been historically present, with warm and wet periods clearly supporting more species (and speciation) than we observe at present. (Try putting a petri dish of microbes in a freezer and see what happens.)

Libs believe that they can in principle define what "just right" should look and feel like for a global climate, including all the present and potential species.

Libs believe that whatever they happen to prefer should define "normalcy" for the earth and all societies in it, despite the fact that a warmer global climate would be a net-gain for arable land globally, as just one example. Just because some people will suffer locally doesn't imply that the globe will be worse off due to significant warming. The lib perspective of global warming is the worst combination of speciesism and local relativism.

The argument is prima facia compelling that global warming is a good thing rather than a bad thing, considered objectively.

Perhaps that's why many are not more concerned with it.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Feb 9, 2017 - 09:29am PT
Looks like a winner, with a number of qualifications, Moose.

1. For general funds only.

2. Keep it simple, no graduated rates dependent on amount of energy usage, no rebates or other redistributions, no exclusions or credits system for off setting. Rather than attempts by a whole new permanent government agency to determine CO2 production per KWH, product, or service just base the tax on cost. Since energy usage is a large portion of product cost, price is good indicator of domestic made CO2 production. A seperate inefficiencies quotient to be applied to foreign produced products.

3. Decoupled from climate change or other religious/scientific ideologies. Instead, stated to encourage savings/conservation.

4. Border tax on foreign produced goods that includes wholesale costs plus long distance transportation costs, plus a inefficiencies quotient that reflects poor practices in energy production, distribution and end usage. This would have the effect of encouraging local, in country production.

5. Coupled with a matching American produced tax reduction that matches the foreign produced tax haul.

6. End all corporate and personal subsidies for so called renewable energy and the products, such as EV'S using it.
couchmaster

climber
Feb 9, 2017 - 09:37am PT



I have resisted posting on this thread until now.











That's all. Carry on.



madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Feb 9, 2017 - 12:00pm PT
Is someone really going to figure out the true cost that should be applied to an individual skier based on their use of certain lifts and trails used?

Why bother?

Skiing is not a necessary (or even useful) condition to the health of the planet. Let global warming continue and even increase as the good trend that it is! Skiing with thus be rendered largely irrelevant, along with the above question.
c wilmot

climber
Feb 9, 2017 - 12:34pm PT
Or just remove the lifts... they are tremendously wasteful and useful to mainly the wealthy elite.

As far as costs the notion of use more pay more and averages don't exactly go hand in hand...

Carbon taxes sound great. If you have a tesla and taxpayer subsidized solar panels...

Not so great if you are not rich

But by all means let's do nothing to limit our population while enchaining our increasingly irrelevant economy with more taxes in the face of growing competitors who don't give a damn about climate change..
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Feb 9, 2017 - 02:29pm PT
a few hundred million people will die due to the climate change

No need for that, other than the few-hundred million that are gonna die anyway. People are going to get a LOT of warning as climate shifts. So, over a generation or two, they can move. Novel thought.

Or, yeah, some are gonna die. Some are gonna die anyway.

The PLANET will move on, and better for it.

You libs are all globalists, so take a global perspective. Stop with the narrow-minded speciesism and coastal relativism.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Feb 9, 2017 - 02:41pm PT
Libs say "scientists say" to mean "some scientists say" particularly when they are "quoting" some scientists who are making value judgments over which science has no particular expertise.

I seem to recall you bragging about how you used to give talks on evolution -- like how whales did not evolve from land mammals. You seemed to indicate that you really did not believe that species evolve into other species. I won't give much credence to your thoughts on science in general after that.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Feb 9, 2017 - 03:18pm PT
I won't give much credence to your thoughts on science in general after that.

Lucky for you, because this is your lucky day, we're not talking about my thoughts on science. We're talking about what libs themselves say.
dirtbag

climber
Feb 9, 2017 - 03:24pm PT
Just another angry redneck, lol.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Feb 9, 2017 - 03:40pm PT
Just another angry redneck, lol.

I'm not the one who's angry and expecting the whole world to conform to my narrow-minded perspectives. I'm the one who's happy with how things are going. I've got a big-picture, objective, truly globalist perspective! Yayyy... bring it on! Baffin Island can become warm and lush again! Dinosaurs can rule the earth once again!

And we can hunt them! What's not to love?
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Feb 10, 2017 - 06:43am PT
A group of Republican elder statesmen is calling for a tax on carbon emissions to fight climate change.

The group, led by former Secretary of State James A. Baker III, with former Secretary of State George P. Shultz and Henry M. Paulson Jr., a former secretary of the Treasury, says that taxing carbon pollution produced by burning fossil fuels is “a conservative climate solution” based on free-market principles.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/07/science/a-conservative-climate-solution-republican-group-calls-for-carbon-tax.html?_r=0
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Feb 10, 2017 - 06:57am PT
Please explain to me what's "conservative" and "free market" about that, because I'm not seeing it.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Feb 10, 2017 - 08:07am PT
Sweet!
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Feb 10, 2017 - 09:45am PT
So, over a generation or two, they can move. Novel thought.

this has already started to happen, and the response of the places that are being moved into is not so positive...

not sure how "novel" the thought is... even with the intended sarcasm, as territory possession is a rather deep ecological phenomenon, every living thing does it.

In humans you cannot discount the social upheaval of large groups moving from some depauperate area to one with resources.

[Click to View YouTube Video]
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Feb 10, 2017 - 09:57am PT
Please explain to me what's "conservative" and "free market" about that, because I'm not seeing it.

Their basic argument is that it economically makes sense--that the cost to businesses of not imposing the carbon tax (or cap & trade) far exceeds the cost of implementation.

Curt
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Feb 10, 2017 - 10:13am PT
Please explain to me what's "conservative" and "free market" about that, because I'm not seeing it.

I think that's a really good question, presumably Chaz would prefer no constraint at all on
the markets as a definition of "free market" and presumably that is the only "conservative"
position.

However, even the original ideas regarding capitalism, and the "free market" had to deal with
ethics, that is, should free markets be allowed to become monopolized and how does that
benefit the common welfare. Adam Smith's "invisible hand" theory posits that the success of
individuals necessarily conveys success of the society. In so doing, there is no need, by construction
to consider the ethics of personal consideration over those of society's, they are declared identical.


If you do no think of economics as a "science" where some rational argument is made, then the
"invisible hand" is just as good as any superstition in justifying laissez-faire capitalism. But
one should fill in the details.

In the case of climate change in the 20th and now 21st centuries, which as far as we can
determine is the direct result of human activity (and more specifically of the USA's energy
consumption through most of the 20th century), the idea that the market should be free to
pursue any solution that optimizes personal wealth without regard to the societal costs would be
the "free market" approach.

Presumably, when the climate got so bad that it shifted the economic incentives, there would be a
"solution" to the climate problems caused by human activities. Like madbolter1's claim that
people could "just move" to a better place.

These presumptions are largely without any rational justification and fly in the face of history.
Unless you consider a huge disruption of human society and prefer that to some orderly
approach to the problems created by human behavior. To take this position is nihilistic, but to
many, the dystopia is preferable to any perceived inhibition to their "liberty."


I don't think that is the "conservative" "free market" approach, but it seems to be what Chaz and
others prefer over the idea of market constraints to affect a change in human behavior that
accomplishes a greater good, without relying on the mysterious "invisible hand."

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Feb 10, 2017 - 10:30am PT
You loons should be more concerned with the effects of weather change than climate change. A case in point: California's climate historically alternates between periods of drought and above average precipitation. The state can only function by means of large and efficient water storage. This is critical infrastructure that requires continuous testing and maintenance to function and avert disaster from effects of the above mentioned historical climate. Now for years, your head fellow travelers have been pushing the idea of permanent drought to advance the vehicle of communist controls via a carbon tax that old Eddy has continuously championed. Meanwhile limited funds are squandered on multi billion dollar bullet trains to nowhere and welfare programs to assist the the illegals in an effort to attain their vaunted demographic change necessary to flood the ballot with fraudulent votes to propel the fellow travelers on the road to state wide ruin. Right now, your untested dams are in bad shape as evidenced by the Feather River Dam's dangerously eroded spillway. In the event of failure how would the enfolding disaster be explained. Will the "Climate Change" meme suffice or will people wake up and demand that heads roll and propagandists like Eddy STFU.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Feb 10, 2017 - 10:43am PT
In order for a " free Market " to function , we need a stable environmental climate...At this point big oil is having it's way but what happens when they begin damaging other free markets...? Too big to be sued...?
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Feb 10, 2017 - 11:42am PT
So government control = "free market" and taking money from the productive and giving it to the poor is now "conservative".

And people wonder why no one is really concerned about climate change.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Feb 10, 2017 - 02:00pm PT

I'm not the one who's angry and expecting the whole world to conform to my narrow-minded perspectives. I'm the one who's happy with how things are going.


August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Feb 10, 2017 - 02:02pm PT
You loons should be more concerned with the effects of weather change than climate change. A case in point: California's climate historically alternates between periods of drought and above average precipitation. The state can only function by means of large and efficient water storage. This is critical infrastructure

No. It is not.

This is a critical infrastructure only for agriculture interests that uses some 80% of the water and produces some 2% of CA GDP.

But as the Duck would say:

Y'all been brainwashed into believing it is do or die for everyone.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Feb 10, 2017 - 03:49pm PT
We just set the all-time record high for the month of February in Denver (80 at DIA), Colorado Springs, and Pueblo today. I'd be the first to say that any single data point is relatively insignificant. On the other hand, this is another significant data point, or three.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Feb 10, 2017 - 05:21pm PT
West, without the water retention of major California dams the central valley might currently look similar to the great flood of 1862. Never mind that people require food to survive, of which one third of the nation's total is grown in California, critical infrastructure also implies a living environment topside of water surface. You probably live in LA LA land with your head so far up a local orifice that you don't worry about such things. WATCH THE WEATHER IN THE NEAR FUTURE-if the current precipitation pattern persists, and because of lack of Dam maintenance, many California's might not be around long enough to observe "Climate Change".
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Feb 10, 2017 - 05:25pm PT
Gee rick, you in a bad mood today?

but your assertion below is interesting to unravel:

A case in point: California's climate historically alternates between periods of drought and above average precipitation. The state can only function by means of large and efficient water storage.

Let's not dwell on the point that modern California weather history is significantly different from historic California weather history, it is true that periods of drought are episodic, and that we might even understand what causes the episodes (see article linked up thread by Tuolumne Tradster).

But the interesting question is: how many years of water storage exists in the current dam system in California?

Good old Google pops this up:
http://californiawaterblog.com/2011/09/13/water-storage-in-california-2/
a 2011 article on the total storage, which indicates the drought storage to be something like 35-43 million-acre-feet, of which 60% is in aquifers and 40% in surface reservoirs.

here is an updated post to that blog
http://californiawaterblog.com/2014/11/20/shaping-water-storage-in-california/

and the study linked therein:
http://watershed.ucdavis.edu/files/biblio/Storage_White_Paper_20Nov2014.pdf

This greatly expands the discussion of "storage" of water in California. Building more surface storage is not the answer.

rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Feb 10, 2017 - 05:27pm PT
Neat...A Nevada/Alaskan resident lecturing Californians on flood control...
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Feb 10, 2017 - 05:52pm PT
Rick sure can get cranky! Jeez Edith!
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Feb 10, 2017 - 06:05pm PT
c wilmot apparently took down his post... to which this was a response... he asked why all that water wasn't being stored now, why isn't storing it the answer?


perhaps because it doesn't need to be stored?

it is, after all, an economic question, that is, what is the cost of providing more storage vs. the return on that storage investment.

As I stated up thread, the state sees more revenue from "tourists" than from agriculture, and the business involving those visitors employees 3 or 4 times as many people as agriculture.

Why then, wouldn't we just let Lake Tulare come back into existence and restore the central valley ecosystems, thus attracting more visitors, expanding the tourist trade, while at the same time restoring California ecologies? a win-win.

As it is, we use the water to grow groups that, by and large, we export internationally. Why should the people of California subsidize these business interests?
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Feb 10, 2017 - 07:59pm PT
Here's a 2009 article that makes the case for restoring Tulare Lake as an economically and environmentally superior option to building a new dam for water storage, the Temperance Flat Dam on the San Joaquin River near Auberry, CA.


https://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2009/07/11/18607139.php

http://www.sjvwlf.org/documents/SFCP-09-10.pdf

The restoration of Tulare Lake can continue to take us down the right path towards economic and environmental sustainability. Just like the San Joaquin River below Friant Dam, precious remnants of this phantom lake remain. And, just like those of us involved in environmental and economic justice for our underserved communities as it relates to jobs, air quality, clean drinking water – or those involved in improving the natural environment for education, recreation, plants and animals – this modest restoration proposal can contribute greatly to those same positive outcomes of creating livable and sustainable communities within the San Joaquin Valley.

c wilmot

climber
Feb 10, 2017 - 08:21pm PT
Sorry Ed. I was getting into a needless argument and deleted my comments
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Feb 10, 2017 - 11:13pm PT
Why then don't we let Lake Tulare come back into existence".

Why not Lake California, 300 miles long by 30 or miles wide"? But don't worry it will dry up in the next inevitable drought. In a possible event like this, people will be wondering why more dams and retention methods weren't employed instead of illegals, windmills, and bullet trains to nowhere.

The long range weather forecasts indicate more rain, possibly much more.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Feb 10, 2017 - 11:43pm PT
I hope his heirs have some pretty beefy dikes surrounding his kingdom DMT. Otherwise his corpse might rise again to sail the inland sea, amongst his rising water rights.

Looks like you could use some in your own neck of the woods.

tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Feb 11, 2017 - 12:00am PT
this GoogleEarth image gives you a better sense of the scale...the words Tulare Lake are ~ 10 mi across


Ksolem

Trad climber
Monrovia, California
Feb 11, 2017 - 12:47am PT
My brother, living in France, is studying water resources aT Universite Lyon. On a drive here up the Owens Valley he was struck by tha fact that the aqueduct is relatively shallow, wider than deep. The third largest slice on the pie chart of CA water use is transmission loss.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Feb 11, 2017 - 09:45am PT
More info on wetland restoration in the San Joaquin Basin can be found here...
http://www.tularebasinwildlifepartners.org

In addition to Tulare Lake, there is Buena Vista Lake at the southern end of the basin.

The freshwater and saline wetland complex associated with Buena Vista and Kern lakes provides extremely important wintering, breeding and migratory areas for tens of thousands of waterfowl and other water-dependent animals. With nearly 100,000 acres of rivers, sloughs, marshes and ponds, this area was historically a major hub in the Central Valley wetland system, critical for the survival of many plant and animal species.

Important strategies for maintaining and restoring this region include re-establishing and sustaining wetlands, restoring upland areas and aiding in the recovery of unique wildlife species. Services provided include: flood water storage, water purification and filtration in marshes and natural air pollution control by planting native annuals and perennials.

The Buena Vista Lake - Kern Lake Conservation Report recommends the following:

Protect 25,000 acres of existing uplands, such as shrubland and grassland;
Restore 26,000 acres of uplands;
Restore 24,000 acres of wetlands; such as marshes, floodplains, creeks and ponds;
Complete Buttonwillow Ecological Reserve;
Complete Coles Levee Ecosystem Preserve, managed by Aera Energy LLC;
Complete Kern Water Bank, managed by Kern Water Bank Authority;
Complete Tule Elk State Reserve, managed by California State Parks;
Complete Lokern Preserve, managed by Center for Natural Lands Management; and
Establish a new state, federal or private Wildlife Area.

for scale, the words Buena Vista Lake are ~ 5.5 mi across.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Feb 13, 2017 - 05:36pm PT
If you're interested in what the California State Water Resources Control Board is proposing as a Comprehensive Response to Climate Change, the proposed resolution can be found here...

http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/board_info/agendas/2017/feb/022217_8.pdf.

Background: The proposed draft resolution sets out directives to State Water Board divisions and offices, and recommendations to Regional Water Quality Control Boards, for actions to account for, and embed climate change into existing work, both to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, and to build resilience to the impacts of climate change. Broadly, the directives include tracking and reporting on actions to mitigate greenhouse gases, coordination with internal and external stakeholders to account for climate change, and development of recommendations for specific actions over time. The directives in the proposed resolution are internal guidelines and policies only, and no specific regulation is created by the proposed resolution.

E.g.,
Climate change is affecting and will affect different regions in different ways. Current and future impacts include increasing frequency of extreme weather events, prolonged fire seasons with larger and more intense fires, increased tree mortality, heat waves, sea-level rise and storm surges. Changes in hydrology include declining snowpack and more frequent and longer droughts, more frequent and more severe flooding, and consequent impacts on water quality and water availability. Vulnerabilities of water resources include, but are not limited to, changes to water supplies, increased amounts of water pollution, erosion, flooding, and related risks to water and wastewater infrastructure and operations, degradation of watersheds, alteration of aquatic ecosystems and loss of habitat, multiple impacts in coastal areas, and ocean acidification.

The State Water Board will hold a public hearing and consider adoption of the proposed resolution at its regularly scheduled meeting on February 22, 2017. The meeting agenda is posted on the State Water Board website and can be accessed at:
http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/board_info/calendar/index.shtml#feb17.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Feb 13, 2017 - 09:11pm PT
Climate Change and Flood Operations in the Sacramento Basin, California
Ann D. Willis, Jay R. Lund, Edwin S. Townsley, and Beth A. Faber
ABSTRACT
Climate warming is likely to challenge many current conceptions and regulatory policies, particularly for water management. A warmer climate is likely to hinder flood operations in California’s Sacramento Valley by decreasing snowpack storage and increasing the rain fraction of major storms. This work examines how a warmer climate would change flood peaks and volumes for nine major historical floods entering Shasta, Oroville, and New Bullards Bar reservoirs, using current flood flow forecast models and current flood operating rules. Shasta and Oroville have dynamic flood operation curves that accommodate many climate-warming scenarios. New Bullards Bar’s more static operating rule performs poorly for these conditions. Revisiting flood operating rules is an important adaptation for climate warming.
mcreel

climber
Barcelona
Feb 13, 2017 - 10:42pm PT
Back in 1991, I was involved in some research on use of water in CA for supporting wildlife reserves that concluded "The estimated increases in recreation benefits which would result from improved habitat conditions implied a recreational value per acre foot of water which is competitive with its economic value in many alternative uses, such as deliveries to agriculture."
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/92WR01514/full

The answer to why so much water is used for agriculture is easy: politics.
mcreel

climber
Barcelona
Feb 14, 2017 - 07:07am PT
The question is not what's the total value of the use of water for different purposes, it is what is the value of the last acre foot, which is what should be used to establish the price. If the value to agriculture (which has already consumed the lion's share of the water) is less than the value to a wildlife refuge, then public decisions about what to do with the water should send it where it will do the most good, at the margin. If agriculture is not prepared to pay the socially optimal price for the water, then it should not get it. If it does end up getting it, in spite of the water having a greater value elsewhere, then maybe we should ask why that's happening.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Feb 16, 2017 - 01:01am PT
Big surprise...NOAA whistleblower discloses data made up to support GW.

no, that's not what happened... I think this was discussed up thread.

However Bates, who acknowledges that Earth is warming from man-made carbon dioxide emissions, said in the interview that there was "no data tampering, no data changing, nothing malicious."

http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=2899333&msg=2941975#msg2941975

Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Feb 16, 2017 - 07:49am PT
Ed, bad data was used. Whether it was done on purpose or not is beside the point.

Your supposed NOAA whistleblower (Bates) never said any climate data was made up or falsified. He also never said any data was wrong or "bad" in any way.

http://www.factcheck.org/2017/02/no-data-manipulation-at-noaa/

Further, the same exact findings and conclusions reached in the 2015 paper that you claim is flawed has been replicated by many other researchers--using other temperature data.

"Bates did not accuse his former colleagues of manipulating ocean temperature data. But he did argue that the group didn’t adhere to NOAA’s protocols involving the release and archiving of the ocean data. However, any purported protocol issues haven’t prevented other scientists from replicating the Science study’s analysis of ocean data.

Zeke Hausfather, a data scientist at the University of California, Berkeley, and others replicated the NOAA scientists’ analysis of ocean data in a study published in the journal Science Advances in January. The researchers found that NOAA’s analysis “generally agree[s]” with other independent ocean temperature data sets, such as those compiled from satellite radiometers, Argo floats and other sources.

This is important because the ability to verify NOAA’s analysis using different lines of evidence — in this case, ocean temperature data from various independent sources — suggests that it’s accurate, Hausfather told us over the phone."

Curt
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Feb 16, 2017 - 08:39am PT
Jody, what is your evidence that any of that data was incorrect?

The articles that I posted shows the normal scientific process of independent checks works, and in this case the two independent studies are consistent with each other. There are other studies that come to the same conclusion.

You feel that this is somehow incorrect. What brings you to this conclusion?
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Feb 16, 2017 - 08:41am PT
"factcheck.org"-the fake news leader.

Sorry, didn't have time to check with Breitbart, Infowars, or Fox.

Curt
monolith

climber
state of being
Feb 16, 2017 - 08:42am PT
Jody loves his tabloid sources.
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Feb 16, 2017 - 08:43am PT
Jody, what is your evidence that any of that data was incorrect?

The articles that I posted shows the normal scientific process of independent checks works, and in this case the two independent studies are consistent with each other. There are other studies that come to the same conclusion.

You feel that this is somehow incorrect. What brings you to this conclusion?

The facts are inconsistent with his simplistic and wacky worldview--therefore, the facts have to be wrong.

Curt
monolith

climber
state of being
Feb 18, 2017 - 06:58am PT
One of Trumps science adviser candidates caught hiding fossil fuel funding sources.

http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2017/02/16/william-happer-trump-science-advisor/
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Feb 28, 2017 - 04:31pm PT
"factcheck.org"-the fake news leader.

Jody, I'm actually interested in your reply to Ed's question because I want to understand how folks can look at scientifically verified reports and call them fake or false.

I'm not trying to set you up, but can you honestly give us the reason why you believe the articles are fake?
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Mar 1, 2017 - 06:44am PT
Interesting exchange

[Click to View YouTube Video]
donini

Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
Mar 8, 2017 - 06:52pm PT
The deniers are "faith based" folks who hold little truck with inconvenient things like informed, reasoned opinions based on real evidence...no, I don't mean the Bible.
They see the workd as they think it should be not as it really is.
john hansen

climber
Mar 8, 2017 - 07:01pm PT
I really despise people like Tucker Carlson.. just so you know where I am coming from.

Bill Nye when pressed to explain how the world climate might be like if there was no human influence, should have said the Carbon Dioxide levels have risen from something like 280 ppm to over 400 ppm since 1850 when humans started burning fossil fuels. All easily proved with overwhelming agreement in the scientific community.

It looks like it's been almost going exponential the last 20 years.

https://www.google.com/search?q=Carbon+ppm+graph+1855+2016&tbm=isch&imgil=N6OvESjyouUTpM%253A%253Bjktkipyx69OcoM%253Bhttp%25253A%25252F%25252Fwww.bitsofscience.org%25252Fshocking-climate-record-atmospheric-co2-rise-accelerating-carbon-feedbacks-tip-earth-past-404-ppm-6905%25252F&source=iu&pf=m&fir=N6OvESjyouUTpM%253A%252Cjktkipyx69OcoM%252C_&usg=__hO9hf48NGOV6SjyqSAZw8YJTLog%3D&ved=0ahUKEwiCva_At8jSAhXJhFQKHZTsAD4QyjcIJw&ei=qMXAWILJNMmJ0gKU2YPwAw&biw=1138&bih=549#imgrc=rjhbt4UmZiUXjM:


Here is 150 years of real data on total emissions.



http://joannenova.com.au/2016/01/since-2000-humans-have-put-out-30-of-their-total-co2-but-there-is-nothing-to-show-for-it/
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Mar 9, 2017 - 11:41am PT
Jody's lack of a response speaks in many decibels that he is only a troll. He wants to stir things up by questioning intelligence of posters, not discussing any topic in a meaningful way.
rbord

Boulder climber
atlanta
Mar 9, 2017 - 12:10pm PT
Pruitt is saying that CO2 doesn't cause global warming.

Maybe not so surprising that the administration of alternative facts is eschewing the scientific community in favor of their preferred belief strategies, on the order of "all the news organizations (that we deride as fake news sites) are saying it (except they're not) so it must be true".

It is what it is - this is what the humans voted for.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Mar 9, 2017 - 01:26pm PT
46% of voters voted for this ignorance.

https://theintercept.com/2016/11/28/donald-trump-first-sore-loser-elected-president-united-states/

https://mediamatters.org/research/2016/09/21/trump-s-11-biggest-lies-debate-moderators-should-be-prepared-address/213234

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/431755/donald-trumps-huge-lies

http://www.politifact.com/personalities/donald-trump/

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/03/donald-trumps-big-lies

http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/article/2015/dec/22/donald-trump-responds-lie-year-says-hes-been-prove/

http://www.dailywire.com/news/4834/trumps-101-lies-hank-berrien
rbord

Boulder climber
atlanta
Mar 9, 2017 - 01:49pm PT
And Clinton had a 90% chance of winning.

We believe stuff, one way or another. It is what it is, it's just hard to say exactly what that is.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Mar 9, 2017 - 08:14pm PT
jody apparently doesn't need evidence. he needs guts[Click to View YouTube Video]
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Mar 9, 2017 - 11:20pm PT
Interesting exchange
^^^

Sorry but that was a pathetic display of arrogance and ignorance by F*#ker Carlson AND
Bill Nye, who is well meaning, isn't qualified to be a spokesperson for climate science on live
TV. IMO Nye should stop doing these interviews. Not sure why he didn't say that CO2 traps heat
and that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has nearly doubled during the last 150 years
due to burning fossil fuels and that this rate of CO2 increase is unprecedented on geologic
time scales of tens of million of years. As soon as Nye started babbling about dinosaurs in
Colorado and growing wine grapes in England, the Climate Deniers were doing a victory
dance in the end zone ;-(
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Mar 9, 2017 - 11:28pm PT
It went from 280ppm to 400ppm in 150 years-not a doubling. Resolution of ice cores and other proxies are insufficient to determine if this percentage of increase in 150 years is a unique event.

If you folks truly live in fear of rising CO2, and modest increases in temps, then you should embrace nuclear and Nat Gas.
BLUEBLOCR

Social climber
joshua tree
Mar 9, 2017 - 11:36pm PT
You haven't got it yet? Theirs isn't that too embrace.


The sky is falling, run!!! And it all their fault👉
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Mar 9, 2017 - 11:42pm PT
I have no problems with those technologies as long as the longterm energy policy is to transition away from burning fossil fuels (including natural gas) and the nuke plants are well engineered and located away from seismically active coastlines.
BLUEBLOCR

Social climber
joshua tree
Mar 9, 2017 - 11:47pm PT
^^*yeah, let's build a bunch in Canada it's cold as sh#t up there. Reactors need big time cooling, right?


But assuredly we WILL drain all the crude out of the planet
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Mar 10, 2017 - 11:05am PT
But assuredly we WILL drain all the crude out of the planet


Sadly, because there are enormous profits to be made, that is likely true, especially considering the clowns currently running the country. Hopefully we won't burn all the coal, otherwise, we will likely plunge the planet into a repeat of the PETM. Look up thread ^^^ for info on the PETM.


Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Mar 10, 2017 - 02:55pm PT
What & who will stop CO2 from doubling to 560ppm?

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/

320 ppm was the previous max in the last 400,000 years.

https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/24/

https://cleantechnica.com/2016/08/12/republican-politicians-love-oil-coal-money-destroy-human-health-life/

BLUEBLOCR

Social climber
joshua tree
Mar 10, 2017 - 08:12pm PT

Sadly, because there are enormous profits to be made, that is likely true, especially considering the clowns currently running the country. Hopefully we won't burn all the coal, otherwise, we will likely plunge the planet into a repeat of the PETM. Look up thread ^^^ for info on the PETM.

Ok tradster. But I'm tired of hearing it's our fault. That blame game suuuuucks! I think we, each individual US citizen does their best to minimize their output. But the wheels are in motion, and there's a lot of countries that are obliviously goin to ride the same train to catch up. As an example, I believe most of our mined coal goes to China, and elsewhere. So just because we cut back doesn't mean the third worlds want to, or will. And who could blame'em! They see what we got and want it too. Sure there is huge profits to be made. Oil, and coal when burned are unequalled in energy output. Nuthin will ever compare. When we do run out I'm sure that will be the first thing we'll steal and murder for from another planet. Lol. Seriously, do you know China is re-establishing the Silk Road? That is all contingent on coal sales. And that will be hardcore for 50yrs. I'm with ya, it can seem all sad but in retrospect Mother Earth has been doin fine for 4 billion yrs. and I'm sure has seen many heat flashes, repeatedly. She'll do just fine! On the other hand, if we want to throw down some guilt, let's go after the Aviation industry, and train industry, and shipping industry, and trucking industry. They are accountable for more then half of the total pollutants. We don't NEED them! If you flew once from Cali to NY, you are responsible for more green house gasing then I caused in a year. So take ur cake and eat it too;)
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Mar 10, 2017 - 09:28pm PT
BLUEBLOCR: No question that fossil fuels are the life blood of the world economy and that the momentum to continue their use for electricity production and transportation globally is staggering. I'm skeptical that there will be any meaningful, global cooperative agreement to significantly reduce fossil fuel use. There is just too much money to be made. I know the oil industry because I worked as a petroleum geologist for one of the major US oil companies for 10 years.

IMO, what this country needs is a comprehensive energy policy that sets goals for transitioning to carbon free electricity production and transportation over the next several decades, similar to Denmark's Energy Strategy 2050 that I posted ^^^. Ya, I know the US is NOT Denmark, but I think there are major components of that plan that could be adapted to the US. The problem is that this country lacks any comprehensive energy policy at all, let alone a policy that will reduce carbon use over the next several decades. This is not just my opinion, even Rex Tillerson, former Exxon CEO and our current Sec of State, has complained that the US has no meaningful energy strategy. Contrary to most of the other members of Trump's cabinet, Tillerson accepts that fossil fuel use has lead to global warming. Sadly, w/Trump & his cronies in the White House, any opportunity for meaningful progress toward GHG reduction in the foreseeable future, is probably dead.

Anyway, I think we're doomed. Future generations, including my two sons, will suffer the consequences of our lack of action to reduce CO2 emissions. Sure, Mother Earth will survive, but it will be devoid of any permanent ice, the oceans will acidify, floods, droughts and famines will increase, and sea level rise will render coastal regions, where millions of poor, helpless people live, uninhabitable.

Have you seen the film Behemoth? If not, I highly recommend it. It's a fascinating documentary film about coal mining in Mongolia. Here's the trailer...

[Click to View YouTube Video]
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Mar 10, 2017 - 10:04pm PT
"tired of hearing it's our fault."

That's just an excuse.
The USA is indeed the single biggest impediment to a global strategy to reduce GHGs.
Whatever we do, we would then need to highly pressure others to follow.
Only if this full effort failed would we have a valid excuse for continuing our emissions.

-------


As far as flying vs driving,
they are very roughly similar in GHG effect per passenger mile.
So a round trip flight of 5000 miles is roughly similar to driving 5000 miles in a typical car.

A 35 mpg car with one occupant or a 17.5 mpg vehicle with 2 occupants emits 410g per passenger mile.

An airplane emits 108g per passenger km, which is 174g per passenger mile.
However due to these emissions being direct into the stratosphere, it is estimated that they cause 2-3 times as much greenhouse effect.
So call it 174 x 2.5 = 435g per passenger mile.

http://www.carbonindependent.org/sources_aviation.html
http://www.carbonindependent.org/sources_car.html

NutAgain!

Trad climber
South Pasadena, CA
Mar 11, 2017 - 09:48am PT
Seems like people are concerned about climate change:

Scott Pruitt’s office deluged with angry callers after he questions the science of global warming
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/03/10/epa-administrator-scott-pruitt-call-your-office

I tried the number, got an automated system with no way to leave a message. Didn't work to zero out for operator, but if you know internal extensions it would let you navigate to them.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Mar 11, 2017 - 06:28pm PT
The impedance of IR is logarithmic rather than linear, meaning the effect of the first 20 ppm above the industrial level of 280 ppm is greater than the rise from there. Additionally the density of the atmosphere and the gravity field of the planetary body has much more to do with the median temp of lower tropospheric temps than atmospheric content. Just look at Venus and Mars for confirmation of this. Both bodies have a 97% atmospheric Co2 content, but the atmosphere of Venus is orders of magnitude denser than Mars, or Earth for that matter. The gravity field of Venus is 3 times stronger. You might ascribe the temp difference due to solar isolation differences, but that is clearly not nearly enough of an effect to account for the 1000 degree difference.

As far as human co2 emissions; they amount to less than 4% versus 96% natural. The residence time of either type of emission is 5-7 years- meaning the hundreds or thousands of years for sink uptake claimed by some wack job climate scientists is BS.

In recent years the recognized ECS of a doubling of CO2 has been steadily declining as per numerous credible peer reviewed studies. You have nothing to fear from a 560 ppm (the much hyped doubling) CO2 content. Without negative feedbacks the consequent temp increase is probably less than 1.2c. Much less than the range of natural variation and even with the temp increase less than the global average temp of most of the holocene.
monolith

climber
state of being
Mar 11, 2017 - 06:48pm PT
Sumner's residence time denial argument is easily debunked. CO2 concentration has risen 40% since man started emitting vast amounts of CO2. Natural, I think knot.

The global temp has already risen .8C even with just a 40% increase in CO2 concentration. Since ECS equilibrium takes hundreds to thousands of years, the temp will continue to rise, even with holding CO2 concentration at present levels

The range of ECS estimates:

NutAgain!

Trad climber
South Pasadena, CA
Mar 13, 2017 - 12:01pm PT
Saw a nice story today about a guy who walked the length of the Keystone Pipeline path, and he had an insight that strikes at the heart of the topic in this thread:
It’s not just education, though. It’s about their identity and economic situation. On the Great Plains I came across countless ghost towns and abandoned homes. The folks out there realize the sense of mortality when it comes to community. So any project that’s going to bring in a bit of money is not going to be questioned on the grounds of climate change or pollution. It’s going to be greeted with open arms if it can help their community last a bit longer.

These are folks who see themselves as hardy, self-sufficient, small government individualists. If you believe in climate change, you’re giving in to the idea of government coming in to fix things, collective action to impose greenhouse gas limits, and reining in the evils of the free market with stricter regulation. This conflicts with so much of that heartland identity.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/03/keystone-pipeline-trespassing-across-america-ken-ilgunas/
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Mar 22, 2017 - 05:38pm PT
Coral reefs are already collapsing on a massive scale.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/great-barrier-reef-coral-bleaching-again/

Sea level rise is already a problem.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level

Sea level rise is tracking the worst case prediction from the IPCC-3
https://skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise-predictions.htm

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/03/30/antarctic-loss-could-double-expected-sea-level-rise-by-2100-scientists-say/?utm_term=.a6c0a9d7ba81


At least 17 Republicans in Congress are not completely sticking their heads in the sand.
https://skepticalscience.com/19-house-gop-call-for-climate-action.html

Info that Trump, Pruitt, Koch, Inhofe, and Exxon don't want you to see:
https://www.epa.gov/climate-change-science/future-climate-change

More Koch kooks:
https://thinkprogress.org/the-koch-brothers-are-now-funding-the-bundy-land-seizure-agenda-901b90b3e1c6#.px5qkyaxp


pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Mar 27, 2017 - 08:52pm PT
The global temp has already risen .8C even with just a 40% increase in CO2 concentration. Since ECS equilibrium takes hundreds to thousands of years, the temp will continue to rise, even with holding CO2 concentration at present levels

You can move on to your next calamity in this case.
BLUEBLOCR

Social climber
joshua tree
Mar 27, 2017 - 09:47pm PT

alarming inconsistencies remain between science-based targets and national commitments.

it really sounds like a religion. Jus tryin to pull more money to their plate.

sure if you wanna lower the co2's to 1%. Tax the shitt out of it so the 99% can't afford it
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 27, 2017 - 09:48pm PT
A roadmap for rapid decarbonization

When scientists go outside their narrow, specialized fields of expertise, such as into politics or economics, they have no more credibility (nor do their journals, peer-reviewed or popular) than people in any other field, including astrology. This article is so filled with wishful thinking and economic disasters that it would take a book-length treatise to entirely rebut the piles of ridiculousness.

By contrast, if you libs REALLY want to take the subject seriously, then you are going to have to get SERIOUS about things like halting rainforest destruction (which you have NO more chance of accomplishing than of getting China to stop using fossil fuels), and alternative energy sources that you have typically rejected out of hand (which I expect you will do with the video clip below).

[Click to View YouTube Video]

There are excellent methods for dealing with waste at this point, and there is no other mode of energy production we know of that packs so much output into such a small space... all without using water or generating greenhouse gasses.

If you really want to get serious, then you have to seriously consider widespread nuclear power.

Is it a "perfect" solution? Of course not. There IS no "perfect" solution. But it is a better solution than others.
Byran

climber
Half Dome Village
Mar 27, 2017 - 09:49pm PT
As far as human co2 emissions; they amount to less than 4% versus 96% natural.

You don't say...
[Click to View YouTube Video]
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 27, 2017 - 09:56pm PT
Another reactor approach we could seriously develop instead of wringing our hands and imagining some economic carrot/stick approach is going to work a miracle....

[Click to View YouTube Video]
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Mar 28, 2017 - 12:33am PT
mini-nukes are a very interesting technology idea, one of the outstanding issues is security, and I think your a little glib in stating that "there are excellent methods for dealing with waste at this point..." more an assertion, but then again, maybe you studied nuclear engineering and can comment with real expertise on the matter.

The major issue with nuclear power is the proliferation problem. While no commercial nuclear power plants have been used to make fissile materials for weapons (usually dedicated reactors specifically built for this purpose do that job), there is an abundance of fissile material made during the normal fuel cycle of a power plant.

So the adoption of nuclear power will have to go hand-in-hand with various non-proliferation agreements. This is especially true considering that the "nuclear waste" contains a lot of fuel in it, a small fraction of the material is detrimental for power production. Reprocessing "spent fuel" greatly reduces the total amount that has to be sequestered in waste repositories.

Reprocessing the "waste" into fuel is possible, but one has to contend with the very same proliferation issues. These sorts of ideas were kicked around not too long ago under the program GNEP, Global Nuclear Energy Partnership
https://energy.gov/downloads/global-nuclear-energy-partnership-fact-sheet-develop-advanced-burner-reactors
but that didn't get very far, Congress didn't share the administrations interest at that point.

Later in that same administration, which promoted nuclear power, and the DOE extended loans to build two new reactors under Moniz, who is a proponent for nuclear energy.

I don't see how political point of view figures into the discussion.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 28, 2017 - 04:04am PT
more an assertion, but then again, maybe you studied nuclear engineering and can comment with real expertise on the matter.

One doesn't have to be a nuclear engineer to follow the technology, and I do. Your snide comments should better be directed at the scientists and editors of Science magazine for going FAR outside their expertise to make sweeping claims about how to "fix" global warming via utterly ridiculous political/economic "plans" that can at best cherry-pick arbitrary punishments.

The major issue with nuclear power is the proliferation problem.

Your education in physics makes you no more qualified to make such an assertion than Joe-Blow on the street. And mere assertion it is, while the facts of the successes of nuclear energy all around the world belie it.

Right now, in 31 countries, commercial nuclear plants are supplying over 11% of the world's TOTAL power needs. France supplies over 80% of its energy needs with nuclear plants and has been doing so for decades. Seems that a LOT of nations have managed to get their heads around the supposed proliferation problem. And if WE can't address it, you can count on getting nowhere in solving the FAR more complicated problem of global warming across its multifarious causes! Making nuclear energy successfully work for US is trivial by comparison!

Seriously, if FRANCE can make nuclear energy work for them, you're going to claim that WE can't???

If WE can't responsibly manage nuclear power, then we SURE don't have what it takes to solve global warming!

Making nuclear energy work has been done effectively all around the world, and there is no good reason it can't go FAR toward solving our dependency on fossil fuels in the short term while we continue to do research on additional technologies. Even 20 years ago, nobody imagined how much cheaper and more efficient solar power has become today! China already supplies about 22% of its energy needs, and the US supplies about 13% of its energy needs with solar. And it's not like we've "capped out" on what THAT technology can do for us.

So, let's get more serious about technologies we already know work, while continuing to develop others. Don't nit-pick about actual solutions that could very quickly get us off of fossil fuels almost entirely.

What I see on this thread is the same thing again and again: You libs have only doomsaying as your argument to force everybody into a political/economic mold that cannot work, but you have nothing but nit-picky vagueness to gainsay technologies that could QUICKLY and DIRECTLY solve the ACTUAL problem: the widespread burning of fossil fuels.

You are unwilling to get serious about FAR less invasive and FAR less difficult measures that already have a track-record of working. IF you are serious about global warming, then you will get SERIOUS about halting the destruction of the rainforests. If you cannot accomplish that, you CERTAINLY will not accomplish anything significant toward the grand master-plan espoused in that Science article. And keeping vast swaths of CO2-consuming forest alive HAS to be a top-priority in the grand battle against greenhouse gasses!

If you can't even muster the political clout to address the reasons why the rainforests are getting mowed down, you SURE are not going to solve global warming by screwing over the American economy while non-compliant nations laugh up their sleeves.

So, rather than to snidely nit-pick the FACT that nuclear energy CAN be (and IS) effectively and properly handled, all around the world, why don't you come up with something better than a vague assertion about "proliferation"?

Oh, and a nice side-effect to QUICKLY getting OFF of fossil fuels is that just so quickly the Middle East becomes nothing more than an irrelevant land-of-sand that we don't need to keep fighting about.

But what we must not do is penalize the average person for "consuming" fossil fuels, when the GOVERNMENT keeps us dependent on oil/gas/coal (FEEDING the fossil-fuel industry instead of MAKING the needed changes).

WE the people really do not choose whether we drive a gas-powered car, when all-electric cars lack the needed refueling grid, and while fossil fuels are still burnt to create the electricity that fuels them! Until our government gets serious about ENDING subsidies to fossil-fuel companies and MAKE an electric-refueling grid as available as gas-stations, penalizing PEOPLE for simply doing what they must do to remain productive is just ridiculous!

IF you are serious about global warming, then the MOST pressing political issue is not the cherry-picked, arbitrary, carrot/stick economics purported in that Science article. By stark contrast, the most pressing political issue is non-partisan and it is to FORCE our representatives to abandon fossil-fuels as quickly as possible in favor of the quickest possible ramp-up of alternative electricity sources, a revamped grid, all-electric cars (and other transportation), and entirely renewable powering of our houses and businesses.

We presently subsidize the oil/gas/coal industries to the tune of about $37 billion per year (actually, a pretty low estimate). You know, over a ten-year period, you can rework a LOT of power grid for approaching half-a-trillion dollars! Just END the subsidies. Oh, and by LAW tell the fossil-fuel companies: "Guess what. The era of profit is over. You saw the writing on the wall for decades and instead just kept buying off politicians. NO MORE. And you will not raise prices. Instead, you'll quit making obscene profits for forcing us to keep using something that's bad for us!"

And that commitment to energy-transformation MUST extend right down to the level of community HOAs, as just one example. The HOA for my condo-complex (as well as almost all other HOAs) explicitly disallows solar panels. Despite solar companies being willing to sign bonded contracts to do no damage, remove/reinstall in the case of any reroofing project, insure their work and the panels themselves, etc., HOAs flatly deny their residents to benefit from solar. In one fell-swoop, State and Federal governments could overnight outlaw this sort of denial, thereby allowing people like me to install solar to mostly or fully satisfy our own energy needs.

In fact, just as soon as I tried and discovered the whole HOA issue and how ubiquitous it is, I have started looking for a stand-alone house with NO HOA, so that I can move into a place where I can implement a whole-house solar system without being arbitrarily denied.

The little hurdles, like HOAs, to widespread adoption of solar power are everywhere! And it doesn't take a LOT of political will to eliminate these hurdles and encourage adoption of alternative energy sources right down to the level of individual homes. The fear and hurdles keeping us from quickly adopting MUCH more nuclear power are also everywhere, but they can be eliminated. Oh, unless we're awash in physicists speaking outside their expertise to continue the fear-mongering without offering any real solutions.

Seriously, if we can go from rockets doing nothing but blowing up on their launch pads to placing men on the moon (repeatedly) within a decade, I believe that with a united will revolving around getting OFF of fossil fuels, this nation could accomplish that (or very close to it) within a decade. And nuclear energy should be a significant part of that rapid transition.

Perhaps we could go straight at the problem and get OFF of fossil fuels, rather than to dink around with indirect manipulations and STUPID things like "carbon taxes" that actually do NOT even TOUCH the primary offenders on this small planet. If WE went straight at the problem, WE could solve it directly and again position ourselves as the ground-breakers of the planet. Where are our representatives who will COMMIT to this doable and direct solution?
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Mar 28, 2017 - 06:40am PT
Wall of text alert...
pud

climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
Mar 28, 2017 - 07:55am PT
more an assertion, but then again, maybe you studied nuclear engineering and can comment with real expertise on the matter.

Just another not so subtle dig at those that disagree with him

Maybe not the smartest kid in class but likely the most passive aggressive. Mommy sit you in the corner one too many times Ed?
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Mar 28, 2017 - 07:55am PT
Your education in physics makes you no more qualified to make such an assertion than Joe-Blow on the street. And mere assertion it is, while the facts of the successes of nuclear energy all around the world belie it.

And there you have it, plainly stated. The current conservative worldview that actual expertise is elitist and has no more value than uninformed opinion.

Right now, in 31 countries, commercial nuclear plants are supplying over 11% of the world's TOTAL power needs. France supplies over 80% of its energy needs with nuclear plants and has been doing so for decades.

Maybe France isn't the best example?

The discovery of widespread carbon segregation problems in critical nuclear plant components has crippled the French power industry—20 of the country’s 58 reactors are currently offline and under heavy scrutiny. France’s nuclear safety chairman said more anomalies “will likely be found,” as the extent of the contagion is still being uncovered.

With over half of France’s 58 reactors possibly affected by “carbon segregation,” the nation’s nuclear watchdog, the Autorité de Sûreté Nucléaire (ASN) has ordered that preventative measures be taken immediately to ensure public safety. As this story goes into production in late October, ASN has confirmed that 20 reactors are currently offline and potentially more will shut down in coming weeks.

http://www.powermag.com/frances-nuclear-storm-many-power-plants-down-due-to-quality-concerns/

Curt
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Mar 28, 2017 - 08:43am PT
I don't think I was disagreeing about nuclear energy, but having been involved in many aspects of nuclear energy policy (largely from the research standpoint in waste disposal, next generation reactors and international security) and having some knowledge of the creation of GNEP, I was pointing out the social difficulty (not the technical difficulty, which are already difficult enough) to changing the energy economics in the USA.

If you would like to have a government like France's, then perhaps the USG could move forward and displace the fossil fuel economy. But that isn't going to happen, and in particular, keeping the cost of fossil fuels low (by not recovering the full cost of using those fuels) will continue to inhibit the development of nuclear power. The current pricing of fossil fuels makes it unlikely that they will be displaced in the USA. That pricing is largely an artifact of history.

My main dig was that madbolter1, who has absolutely no expertise at all in the matter, has jumped to the conclusion that the scientific press is incompetent. In any scientific matter I would favor the views of Science's editors and writers over madbolter1's, he may be an enthusiast, but he has no more expertise than that.

As for pud, he is having another emotional reaction... one of many.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 28, 2017 - 08:58am PT
actual expertise is elitist and has no more value than uninformed opinion.

If you get that from what I said, then you reveal how committed libs are to reading through their own tinted lenses.

IF Ed demonstrates ACTUAL expertise on the subject of nuclear proliferation, then I will take that seriously. However, the word "nuclear" is not a catch-all phrase in which if Ed has that word anywhere in his titles, he is suddenly a sweeping expert.

And, in fact, his ASSERTION that "proliferation" is the biggest problem with nuclear energy is not borne out by the facts. FEAR is actually the most sweeping problem facing nuclear energy in the United States, and it is not fear of proliferation. Is is fear that nuclear energy is somehow, fundamentally unsafe.

Furthermore, even if proliferation were the major problem, it's not like there are no solutions. OBVIOUSLY, all around the world, there are ways of addressing the various problems with nuclear energy. So, the mere ASSERTION does not equate to an actual problem that disqualifies nuclear energy as a strongly viable solution to particularly the United States' energy needs.

So, yes, sorry to burst your bubble, but Ed is not some "meta-scientist" that is expert in all fields of inquiry. And in this case his ASSERTION is indeed no more valid on THIS subject than Joe-Blow's off the street. It's an OPINION, and it might even be a "well-read" opinion. But MERE OPINION it is.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 28, 2017 - 09:28am PT
If you would like to have a government like France's, then perhaps the USG could move forward and displace the fossil fuel economy.

Well, as I said, if we cannot make the sort of changes in energy policy I'm advocating, because, as you say, we'd need a government like France's, then we will NOT make the changes needed to affect climate change.

So, then, I guess the whole hand-wringing point is moot. The grand master-plan in the article is moot.

Which is really my main point. The article is not science; it is assertion and wishful thinking that does NOT cohere with the realities of human nature, not to mention facts about the United States constitution.

But that isn't going to happen

Ah, so you AGREE with me. Since you agree with me, I must have been correct in saying that the article in question does not cohere with the realities that none of the authors/editors were qualified as scientists to comment on.

Oh, but wait. I sense a self-defeating argument here....

If you're not particularly qualified as a mere scientist to comment on socio-economic factors that actually give the lie to the article, then you are not particularly qualified to assess the correctness of my assessment of that very fact about the article. But if you are not qualified to comment on my assessment, then your agreement with me adds no special correctness to my correctness. But, then, your agreement (or lack thereof) has no special weight regarding the correctness of the article, its correctness not in fact being based upon any scientific assessment.

and in particular, keeping the cost of fossil fuels low (by not recovering the full cost of using those fuels) will continue to inhibit the development of nuclear power. The current pricing of fossil fuels makes it unlikely that they will be displaced in the USA. That pricing is largely an artifact of history.

These are all good points, although actually debatable. But they all simply add to the socio-economic malaise that will NOT be addressed by anything in the grand master-plan outlined in the Science article.

Furthermore, these are points you didn't mention in your initial, snarky response. I would not have disputed these points. I DO dispute the points you actually made.

My main dig was that madbolter1, who has absolutely no expertise at all in the matter, has jumped to the conclusion that the scientific press is incompetent.

I didn't jump to any conclusions about the article. It is a FACT that the authors/editors of that article do not have any SCIENTIFIC basis upon which to advocate a particular socio-economic "solution" to the problem. They have a particular socio-economic ax to grind, but that particular implement is neither produced nor sharpened by SCIENCE.

And, actually, I have the same expertise on "the matter" that you do. "The matter" of the Science article was a master-plan regarding sweeping socio-economic change. Yet, for example, physicist are NOT economists, sociologists, or political philosophers. The authors of that article were none of the above, nor were they psychologists. In short, the grand master-plan is based upon perspectives that are WIDE open to legitimate question and expressed by people who have NO more reason to have those perspectives than Joe-Blow on the street.

That article is a CLASSIC example of scientists yet again going FAR outside the purview of their actual expertise, waving the magic wand of scientific credibility over subjects that are NOT scientific by nature, and then drawing conclusions not supported by ANY scientific evidence. You cannot draw socio-economic conclusions from climate-change data. And climate scientists have NO more credibility to suggest sweeping socio-economic master-plans than does Joe on the street. And you cannot specify the "best" way to motivate and produce socio-economic change from mere facts about physics or climate.

That article was mere opinion, NOT science. So the fact it was published in Science magazine is irrelevant to its actual credibility. Cap and trade, carbon taxes, and all the rest of that hogwash are nothing but political fodder perpetrated by a leftest agenda. That crap is NOT science, and the fact that some scientists advocate it makes it no less hogwash (and no more science!).

In any scientific matter I would favor the views of Science's editors and writers over madbolter1's

And I would agree with you!

But that article was NOT science, despite the journal in which it appeared.

he may be an enthusiast, but he has no more expertise than that.

My formal training is in argument evaluation, critical thinking, and in actually assessing expertise, among other things. So, in this case, yes, I am more than mere "enthusiast" to recognize that article for the pile of wishful thinking and mere assertions that it actually is. Again, the fact that Science published it does not make its contents "science."

I have little tolerance for the magic wand of "science" being waved over mere assertion, speculation, and purported "facts" that are FAR outside the fields of expertise of the authors.
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Mar 28, 2017 - 10:52am PT
...However, the word "nuclear" is not a catch-all phrase in which if Ed has that word anywhere in his titles, he is suddenly a sweeping expert...And, actually, I have the same expertise on "the matter" that you do.

That's pretty much like saying that you would just as willingly accept an opinion from Joe-Blow on the street about your chest pains, if the doctor offering you an opinion wasn't a cardiologist. Hysterical.

Curt
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 28, 2017 - 11:53am PT
That's pretty much like saying that you would just as willingly accept an opinion from Joe-Blow on the street about your chest pains, if the doctor offering you an opinion wasn't a cardiologist. Hysterical.

Well, do ALL doctors have expert knowledge about hearts that is not possessed by the average guy on the street? Of course. Soooooo....

BAD analogy.

A better analogy would be more like saying that I would just as willingly accept an opinion from Joe-Blow on the street about economics as a physicist, especially if I knew that Joe-Blow was well-read on the subject and the physicist was not (neither one of them being experts in the subject).

Oh, wait, that's not an analogy. That's EXACTLY what I'm saying.

And if you don't grasp the concept of scope-of-authority, then there's no help for your critical thinking "skills."

Apart from being basically "smart" (which does not at all equate to being wise), a scientist has NO special expertise outside of his/her training and practice. There are many basically smart people on Earth, Joe-Blow among them.

Ask Ed and see if he'll come clean on this fact: A physicist, qua physicist, has no more credibility on economics, sociology, or political philosophy than a non-scientist and may well have less.

If you want to bring in additional factors besides the "qua physicist" part, well, then, you're really just supporting my point.

Although you probably can't see that fact.
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Mar 28, 2017 - 12:41pm PT
And if you don't grasp the concept of scope-of-authority, then there's no help for your critical thinking "skills."

Apart from being basically "smart" (which does not at all equate to being wise), a scientist has NO special expertise outside of his/her training and practice. There are many basically smart people on Earth, Joe-Blow among them.

Ask Ed and see if he'll come clean on this fact: A physicist, qua physicist, has no more credibility on economics, sociology, or political philosophy than a non-scientist and may well have less.

The current topic (within the climate change debate) is whether using more nuclear power is a good idea, and why or why not. I happen to think a PhD nuclear physicist DOES know much more about next generation reactor design, safe nuclear waste storage, and the potential for creating weapons-grade material from reactor waste products than Joe-Blow does. Those are all critical parts of this discussion. You are disingenuously framing this as a completely non-scientific social and economic issue--and it isn't. Don't question my critical thinking skills before taking another look at your own.

Curt
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Mar 28, 2017 - 02:19pm PT
Hey MB2, if your critical thinking skills are so great why do you think that whales did not evolve from a land mammal ancestor? You said so -- ridiculed the prevailing science, really, in the What is Mind thread a few months back. You bragged about how you gave talks about this kind of evolution and were, therefore, an expert of sorts. Seems to me, it flies in the face of your argument with Ed. You clearly presented yourself as an "expert", even though your views are laughable to the great majority of evolutionary scientists.

To tell you the truth, I happen to believe you are correct, in general, about nuclear energy, at least in the medium-term (not that Ed is wrong). You seem to have this compulsion to denigrate "liberals", which dilutes your arguments.
crankster

Trad climber
No. Tahoe
Mar 28, 2017 - 02:31pm PT
Can someone distill the WOT down to a 5 or 6 page summary?
kunlun_shan

Mountain climber
SF, CA
Mar 28, 2017 - 03:03pm PT
^^ I generally don't bother reading madbolter's opinion pieces.... he has no particular expertise in anything, imo. ;-)
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Mar 28, 2017 - 03:21pm PT
next time look it up in your gut.

[Click to View YouTube Video]
rbord

Boulder climber
atlanta
Mar 28, 2017 - 04:48pm PT
Trump's understanding and expertise is somewhere along the lines of "let them eat coal."
WBraun

climber
Mar 28, 2017 - 04:50pm PT
safe nuclear waste storage,


You people are truly insane ......
rbord

Boulder climber
atlanta
Mar 28, 2017 - 04:58pm PT
you reveal how committed libs are to reading through their own tinted lens

When I did the math on all the possible reference classes, I found that the best fit was "libs." Proving to myself, once again, that I must be some kind of genius.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 28, 2017 - 07:02pm PT
The current topic (within the climate change debate) is whether using more nuclear power is a good idea, and why or why not. I happen to think a PhD nuclear physicist DOES know much more about next generation reactor design, safe nuclear waste storage, and the potential for creating weapons-grade material from reactor waste products than Joe-Blow does. Those are all critical parts of this discussion. You are disingenuously framing this as a completely non-scientific social and economic issue--and it isn't. Don't question my critical thinking skills before taking another look at your own.

Okay, to your challenge, let's take a look. Some questions will perhaps help.

1) Has a nuclear physicist conducted scientific research on the sociological questions surrounding nuclear energy?

2) Has a nuclear physicist conducted scientific research on the political questions surrounding nuclear energy?

3) Has a nuclear physicist conducted scientific research on the international relations questions surrounding nuclear energy?

4) Has a nuclear physicist conducted scientific research on the politics and public perceptions surrounding the disposal of waste from nuclear energy?

And I could literally go on and on. The point I made earlier that I'll emphasize again is that the word "nuclear" appearing in two parts of the question does not indicate any special connection between the two parts. Expertise in nuclear physics does NOT imply expertise in sociology, economics, politics, philosophy/ethics or any other field in which the subject of nuclear energy might come up.

Yes, the physicist regarding (1) might be well-read and even "connected" regarding a range of sociological research. But not QUA nuclear physicist. AS a nuclear physicist, he has no special access to sociological research compared to what anybody else might have. He has no special expertise QUA nuclear physicist to talk about sociological issues AT ALL, regardless of whether there have been studies particularly about nuclear energy that he/she might or might not be aware of.

Same point regarding the others. There is a scope-of-authority, and a merely shared "subject" does not imply that scope. You can choose to grant more authority than is due. Many people do this sort of thing in many different contexts. It is more or less fallacious, depending upon the distance between the actual expertise and the merely perceived or granted expertise.

In the case of sociology, politics, economics, psychology, philosophy, etc., there is no good reason to think that a nuclear physicist has any special insight in those fields, regardless of whether they concern "nuclear" anything.

Ed's points regarding proliferation in particular are too vague to make anything of. In fact, to the extent that there is "some issue" there, it has certainly been addressed (and continues to be so) worldwide! It is NOT the "biggest problem" facing nuclear energy. And anybody widely-read on this subject can know that fact quite obviously beyond Ed's "expertise" on a de facto public-opinion poll.

Indeed, Ed's narrow "window" into nuclear energy will necessarily be informed by his contacts, research, and perspectives derived from his professional context. Yet those very perspectives can also be major shortcomings to a broader understanding of the politics, sociology, psychology, and philosophy questions surrounding nuclear energy.

But this discussion has become a side-issue, indeed a complete red-herring.

The primary point is that a Science article was written and edited by scientists pushing a leftist agenda. That agenda is NOT science, and it is neither informed nor motivated by SCIENTIFIC considerations. That article was in fact political philosophy rather than science.

Given the climate change problem, the article floated an OPINION about political philosophy. In this, Science magazine abandoned its charter and the scope of authority of its authors/editors. There are a multitude of ways to consider and approach the climate change problem, and the leftist/globalist agenda is not even a good one.

THE problem, so we're told, is the burning of fossil fuels. The consequences of that problem are clearly exacerbated by the decimation of the rainforests. The leftist agenda directly addresses NEITHER, but prefers extremely indirect, largely-punitive, and quite arbitrary measures that presume psychological, sociological, philosophical, and other conditions that we have good reasons to believe do not obtain.

By contrast, we should go DIRECTLY at the problem, which is done by throwing the weight of the government behind laws and funding priorities to get us OFF of fossil fuels (or very nearly there) within one decade. This is possible, and, really, this is the only hope that the hand-wringers have, because at this very moment the continued burning of fossil fuels is supposedly pushing us rapidly past the point of no return.

So, instead of dickering about faux shortcomings and problems with, say, nuclear energy, we should be pulling together as a nation to immediately employ EVERY non-fossil-fuel means available to get OFF of fossil fuels in the NEAR term. Meanwhile, we should employ every international leverage we have to halt the destruction of the rainforests.

If you can't get behind those facts, then you are NOT serious about climate change, so quit wringing your hands about it. And if we cannot pull together regarding these two priorities, then kiss your a55 good-bye, because you CERTAINLY will not have the leverage to foist some oblique leftist agenda off on the nation, much less the world.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Mar 28, 2017 - 07:09pm PT
I am certain that a church managing philosophe has done all of that and more.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 28, 2017 - 07:11pm PT
Done any of what? Painting?

Happy, little clouds? How does one "do" a happy, little cloud, anyway?

I did pottery in college. Does that count?

Edit: Ah, since your back-edit has clarified your question, oh Brave One, I can now easily answer.

You see, I don't believe that the question is relevant, because I don't believe that the "scientific method" is how we best obtain the answers to such questions as:

1) Can nuclear energy be in-principle a good sociological fit in the USA and the rest of the world. ALL the scientific facts one might discover about societies are merely descriptive rather than normative. So, sociological research (which physicists don't engage in, btw) could at best tell us whether or not there HAS appeared to be a "good fit." It cannot in principle tell us whether or not there WILL be a "good fit" or if there SHOULD be.

2) What would the nature of "scientific inquiry" about the political questions even look like? And, again, any "results" would be merely descriptive rather than normative.

Same points about international relations, political philosophy, ethics, and a large range of similar questions... all of which actually inform and motivate public perspectives regarding nuclear energy. NONE of these inquiries are (or need to be) "scientific," and scientists qua physicists have no special insights into such fields.

I'm a rock-climber. I dare say that I have studied a lot of rock FAR more closely and with intense and detailed scrutiny than the vast majority of people on the planet. Thus, I am an expert about rocks. Thus, I am really a geologist. Right?

A geologist studies rocks with a depth of understanding and perception that FAR exceeds that conducted by the vast majority of people on the planet. Thus, the geologist is an expert about rocks. Thus, the geologist is a rock-climber. Right?

Again, the issues regarding nuclear energy have nothing to do with the fact that "nuclear" is the "subject" of "study" in both senses, any more than the "subject" of "study" being "rocks" makes a rock-climber or geologist "expert" in the other's sense of "expertise."

A nuclear physicist is NOT an economist, politician, international-studies expert, philosopher/ethicist, or sociologist. He is EXACTLY as "expert" in such fields as his reading of actual authorities in those fields is.

But QUA SCIENTIST, he has no special authority in such fields over that of ANYBODY else who has reviewed the same (or even more) authorities in those fields. So, his opinion is EXACTLY as credible as the actual authorities in the relevant fields he CITES. But ANYBODY can do that "research" in that sense, so QUA SCIENTIST he has no special authority nor special credibility in fields not directly part of his own scientific-research expertise.

The actual problems surrounding climate change are NOT the scientific ones. They involve fields quite removed from physics and even climate-change science itself. Thus, even climate-change scientists have no special authority, expertise, or credibility to provide "answers" regarding those surrounding problems. Yet, a false stamp of just such authority has been given (and widely accepted) regarding the authors/editors at Science magazine who published a political philosophy diatribe cast as "science."
Fossil climber

Trad climber
Atlin, B. C.
Mar 28, 2017 - 07:32pm PT
I had an interesting insight back in the sixties. I was Chief Ranger at Denali (then Mt. McKinley NP).
The Superintendent called me and said he wanted me to drive a couple of VIPs through the park. They turned out to me Dr. and Mrs. Edward Teller - the "father of the H bomb" and later the model for Dr. Strangelove.

So I took 'em on the drive. Mrs. T. didn't say much. Teller looked at everything and asked how it could be used. But he didn't have a clue. We drove over the pass and there was Denali towering before us, with a snow plume blowing off the peak. What did he say? "There should be a hotel on top of that!"

I had to look to see if he was joking. He didn't joke.

We saw the McKinley River, usually 25- 30 braided channels of thick glacial silt. He said, "There should be a dam on that!" No kidding. I still can not conceive how a scientist could be so totally oblivious to environmental reality. I can only guess that he was so totally focussed on nuclear physics that nothing else entered his mind.

He had also proposed "Project Plowshare", which envisioned an H bomb used to blast a harbour into the northern Alaskan coastline where there were no natural ones, so that resources could be utilized less expensively. He had some opposition on that one. Dr. Adolph Murie, a biologist who studied in Denali out of one of our old patrol cabins every summer, explained to the world at large that a nuke would send fallout across the north of Alaska. The radionuclides would be absorbed directly by the lichens, hence into the caribou, hence into the native peoples and everything else that ate them or their remains. It was eventually dropped, significantly thanks to Ade Murie. Teller was enraged.

On the drive back we spotted a herd of caribou in the valley below. True to form, Teller asked, "Can those be domesticated?" About that time I spotted a familiar VW bus parked ahead with someone with a spotting scope checking out the herd. I knew who it was. I said, "I don't know, but there's someone up ahead who can answer you." So we stopped, and I said, Dr. Adolph Murie, this is Dr. Edward Teller and he has a question for you."

They both sort of reared back and looked startled, then - to their credit - they both saw the humour of the situation and laughed. Teller asked his question, Murie answered, and we went on our way.

Moral of the story: no matter how brilliant someone is on a specific subject, be it nuclear physics or anything else, there is a helluva lot he or she doesn't know, and perhaps doesn't want to. It is one of the major problems of modern humanity.

WM
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Mar 28, 2017 - 07:37pm PT
I can hardly read one of madbolter1's rant. let alone many pages...

However, I do feel compelled to reply that part of my professional career has been involved with issues regarding non-proliferation, and with issues involving international security regarding nuclear material.

Certainly the extent to which I can discuss this issue on the STForum is largely constrained. I really don't know what madbolter1 is ranting about. If he feels that the issues of non-proliferation are largely sociological I think he's way off base. His ranting is too incoherent for me to understand what he is complaining about.

There are many ways that the USG can encourage a nuclear power economy, but it cannot do it by fiat. The most practical way is to price fossil fuel use so as to reflect the external costs, which includes the risks that climate science says we are incurring by our use of fossil fuels. This would be a carbon tax.

Energy pricing would then more reflect the true costs of various energy sources, and make those other sources viable, nuclear energy is certainly a candidate.

But the costs of nuclear energy include the costs including security and of some way of dealing with spent fuel. And the USG has a role to ensure that that fuel is secure. Various treaties on nuclear proliferation greatly constrain the ways we can treat that spent fuel. However, moving ahead in an cooperative, international manner may well relieve many of those constraints.

In addition, the issues regarding the safety of nuclear power production are real, and have to be addressed in a way that is acceptable to the country. With the rather emotional manner in which such discussions are conducted (as reflected in madbolter1 and pud's irrational responses to my posting to this thread on this topic, a result of their perception of what my politics are I presume) this is a difficult hurdle facing the resurgence of nuclear power in the USA. Nonetheless, the Obama administration was supporting an expansion of nuclear power.

I find the politics voiced on this thread to be rather toxic, and not at all constructive in the discussion.

There are not many people posting to STForum with any technical background in these matters. I'd very much like to hear from them if they are willing to wade into the discussion. If madbolter1 could write a short, coherent discussion of what his issue is perhaps I can engage in a reasonable discussion.

BLUEBLOCR

Social climber
joshua tree
Mar 28, 2017 - 07:44pm PT
It's almost embarrassing how none of us can see the whole picture.

I wonder what hummingbirds think of us
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Mar 28, 2017 - 07:44pm PT
I'll go with Joe-Blow and the gut, thankee. ;-)
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 28, 2017 - 08:04pm PT
Certainly the extent to which I can discuss this issue on the STForum is largely constrained. I really don't know what madbolter1 is ranting about. If he feels that the issues of non-proliferation are largely sociological I think he's way off base. His ranting is too incoherent for me to understand what he is complaining about.

Funny, Ed. I feel the same way about most of your posts. You are so dogmatic and insular in your thinking, that you really do seem to have the infamous mentality of: "I have a hammer. Look, here is a nail. Look, here is another nail." I find your oblique, sometimes snarky, moving-target "responses" to be incoherent.

But, frankly, our mutual perceptions are pretty irrelevant. What matters to this thread is the fact that the Science article was NOT science and was demonstrably not helpful toward solving the problem of climate change.

What will be helpful is throwing our united energy and political will around developing and promoting EXISTING technologies that CAN get us (at least almost) entirely off of fossil fuels in the NEAR term. Couple that with halting rainforest destruction, and you've got a real shot at halting or dramatically slowing present climate change, while flattening the curve for the future.

Nuclear energy offers immediate bang-for-buck possibilities that far outshine any other present contenders. And one doesn't need to be a nuclear physicist to run the numbers, compare real costs against real output, and see that fact. Libs should either take climate change seriously, or quit wringing their hands and expecting everybody else to.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 28, 2017 - 08:26pm PT
There are many ways that the USG can encourage a nuclear power economy, but it cannot do it by fiat. The most practical way is to price fossil fuel use so as to reflect the external costs, which includes the risks that climate science says we are incurring by our use of fossil fuels. This would be a carbon tax.

That's just an opinion, and in this context I want to emphasize for those that can't seem to get it: Your opinion has NO special credibility just because you are a nuclear physicist.

In fact, there are many other "practical ways" toward the desired goal that would NOT be a "carbon tax."

Just to start, in FACT, the federal government has both the power and arguably the constitutional right to "by fiat" insist that by such and such a year the USA will NOT burn fossil-fuels for transportation, home/business heating, and/or other applications including perhaps electricity production.

By simply halting oil/gas/coal subsidies, the federal government could overnight free up in the vicinity of half-a-trillion dollars over a ten-year period. During that same period, the federal government could "by fiat" cap oil/gas/coal profits, demanding that the "excess" be used to fund the development and implementation of non-fossil-fuel energy production. Particularly where a good or service can be cast as a basic human need and/or public-good, the feds have sweeping powers regarding everything from production to pricing to availability.

I could go on, but don't short-sell what the feds can (and have the right to) do "by fiat." Almost nobody liked the 55 speed limit, but the federal government "by fiat" did what it wanted to do on that front. "Fiat" has a LOT of power, even in our republic.

Another role for "fiat" would be entirely unburdening the average person to engage in their own alternative energy production, such as solar panels on their own homes (particularly condos). Anti-HOA legislation would open those doors. And that's merely "passive" legislation, just clearing away the dead-wood of ridiculous and arbitrary exercises of "power" that keep willing people from getting solar on their houses.

There are certainly active "fiat" roles as well, such as even more aggressive direct subsidies to homeowners and business owners to encourage them to go as quickly solar as possible.

In short, there are a HOST of ways that the government can and even SHOULD use "fiat" to turn the direction of the country and even require a rapid weaning off of fossil fuels. NONE of these have anything to do with a "carbon tax."

The economic approach recommended by the Science article (and at least in part by you) is just ONE approach, arguably not the "most practical."

Of course, like me, you're entitled to your opinion.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Mar 28, 2017 - 08:26pm PT
An article clearly labeled "POLICY FORUM CLIMATE POLICY" does not have to be confused with science, and a journal referred to as Science Magazine is a journal, with articles that can be considered opinion pieces.

I didn't confuse it as a science article when I read it. And I didn't agree with all of the things proposed, but it was an interesting and thoughtful piece reflecting the daunting task ahead to undo the thing that we have done.

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Mar 28, 2017 - 08:31pm PT
I find your ideas regarding the extent of Federal powers to be rather interesting, especially coming from you...

...as you know, the Federal powers are highly constrained, and that is the intent on how the country is constituted.

That is my opinion, of course, but there is plenty of evidence (some of it relatively recent) which demonstrates those constraints.

madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 28, 2017 - 08:43pm PT
I didn't confuse it as a science article when I read it.

Good for you!

By contrast, the original citation of the article cast is as scientific credibility, and that has been repeated on this thread since.

The same basic mistake is made when people treat you personally as having some special credibility on this or that aspect of the subjects under discussion here.

You've alluded to the fact that you do not, which I appreciate. But many here still don't get it.

The point is that MOST of the discussion surrounding climate change and "solutions" to it are not actually scientific (if they even in principle could be). Most of the "answers" come cast in an underlying political philosophy, and THOSE questions are not the purview of science.

So, yes, to the extent that people here are crystal clear that Science magazine lent no special scientific credibility to what was an OPINION piece, we are all on the same page. However, clearly we have not shared that core agreement, which is what I've been arguing about. I say the same about your personal opinions regarding much of the surrounding issues of this discussion, which, again, is a point that many here can't seem to get.

Ed, I generally respect your opinions (when I don't find them incoherent), as I take them to be coming from a thoughtful person with above-average intelligence. But, unlike many here, I don't automatically take them as gospel just because you are a physicist. In almost all fields, your opinions are just that, and they come with no special authority.

If we could get past that key point, then perhaps we could settle into discussing the OPINION that economic manipulation of the form advocated by leftists really is "the most practical" approach.

If there's any hope of reining in the burning of fossil fuels, we're going to have to get largely on the same page about some political/economic philosophy. All sorts of data must inform such discussions. But interpretation is everything! So, we're going to have to charitably and seriously consider our mutual interpretations. A LOT hangs on it. Right?
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 28, 2017 - 08:51pm PT
as you know, the Federal powers are highly constrained, and that is the intent on how the country is constituted.

That is my opinion, of course, but there is plenty of evidence (some of it relatively recent) which demonstrates those constraints.

I agree with you in ideal. However, all bets are off since Obamacare. You see, the deciding SCOTUS justice asked and (by his vote) answered the most fateful question in this nation's history: "If government can do THIS, then what can government NOT do?"

His answer? "Government can do ANYTHING," and thus we crossed the Rubicon.

We've seen various "tests" over the past decades of my life. The 55 speed limit was one. Obamacare was a major one. There have been others.

The point is that the "interstate commerce clause" has now been writ so large, and we have SO abandoned (and even stigmatized) "originalism" that the constitution is now an ENTIRELY moving target to be interpreted on the whim of this or that SCOTUS. And the recent precedents have firmly established that we now have a virtually all-powerful federal government backed by the most powerful standing-army in human history.

The very fact that this nation is now almost perfectly divided in half into almost warring factions, both seeking to control the coercive POWER of the federal government, indicates the extent to which the POWER is presumed; all that remains is the question of which side gets to wield it (often against the other).

So, at this point, I intentionally separate my political philosophy (originalist idealism) from my pragmatism about what (hopefully) good may yet be done under the mantle of what now is really federal tyranny.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Mar 28, 2017 - 08:57pm PT
I take Dr. Hartouni's opinions as the gospel truth of dog because he sent Spin to Win. This has nothing to do with a career in physics.
BLUEBLOCR

Social climber
joshua tree
Mar 28, 2017 - 08:58pm PT

"by fiat" insist that by such and such a year the USA will NOT burn fossil-fuels for transportation, home/business heating, and/or other applications including perhaps electricity production.

Fuc That! I'll insist on nuking all private aviation, and all other aviation that isn't due to business. Then all shipping that doesn't consist of food. And trains only for transportation.

That should reduce co's by 50%
F

climber
away from the ground
Mar 28, 2017 - 09:03pm PT
Yep. Mudbolter is on either meth or Ritalin.
What a whack job.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Mar 28, 2017 - 09:05pm PT
If you have read my posts on this thread I think you would find that I have been careful to make a distinction between what is science and what is policy.

What is policy can be informed by science, but is vastly more complex as it does have to do with attaining consensus, and that usually involves resolving conflicting priorities in many domains among which social, economic and international concerns are examples.

What science does is to provide a future scenario to the best of our knowledge of what may occur, the quantification of the risk, and some estimate of the uncertainties that go into that quantification.

While scientists may have informed opinion about the policy, they are one voice at that table.

I have been pretty clear about this for the time I've been posting on this topic. I'm happy to discuss the science, which I have both some knowledge of and some capability to understand, as well as the social contacts to discuss issues with the scientists doing the work. I will also happily provide my opinion on scenarios to mitigate those risks.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 28, 2017 - 09:06pm PT
I take Dr. Hartouni's opinions as the gospel truth of dog because he sent Spin to Win.

Ho, man. Not THAT is evidence I did not have before. Well, I can't resist it, so I'll capitulate immediately. Let nobody say I'm not intellectually honest.

Ed's opinions on any subject ARE gospel truth.

Thank you for the enlightenment. ;-)
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 28, 2017 - 09:07pm PT
If you have read my posts on this thread I think you would find that I have been careful to make a distinction between what is science and what is policy.

My arguments have not be AT you but against the clearly widespread confusion on this thread about what scope-of-authority means.
Fossil climber

Trad climber
Atlin, B. C.
Mar 28, 2017 - 09:08pm PT
I fear my anecdote about Edward Teller may be interpreted as casting doubt on scientists in general. That was by no means my intention, and especially as regards Ed, whom seems to me to be pretty cognizant of the big picture as well as his scientific specialty.

It's facts that matter, not opinions. Sadly, we are now governed by people who believe in and manipulate opinion. Their uninformed opinions may finish us all.
BLUEBLOCR

Social climber
joshua tree
Mar 28, 2017 - 09:09pm PT

thoughtful piece reflecting the daunting task ahead to undo the thing that we have done.

That's a bit, ummm. How do you know what "we" have done? How long has science been keeping track? 100 maybe 200years. The planet has taken care of herself for what, atleast a million yrs, right? Isn't it true Ed, that earth is just leaving a 11 year cycle of be'in the closest to sun than normally? Who can say we aren't just now feeling the residuals? I mean, it just seems like you guys are jumpin on the first cab that comes by? And that cab smokes!
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Mar 28, 2017 - 09:20pm PT
i suspect that sciencing (as in, I'm sorry i scienced all over you) is a little longer-lived than 200 yrs.
i further posit that the brown acid fostered illusions that erff "takes care of herseff", trims those icy pubes, with our insignificant existence at heart.
WBraun

climber
Mar 28, 2017 - 09:27pm PT
Nuclear energy offers immediate bang-for-buck possibilities that far outshine any other present contenders.


Nuclear energy is toxic cave man sh!t. Only an insane society uses that sh!t.

See how technical I am. I have the best technical words.

They're all four letter words.

Magnetics will be the future sh!t.

But ultimately you earthlings are trying to make your prison comfortable.

In prison, it's never that way, because it's still a prison and there's no escape for the materialists .......
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Mar 28, 2017 - 09:31pm PT
Nuclear energy offers immediate bang-for-buck possibilities that far outshine any other present contenders. And one doesn't need to be a nuclear physicist to run the numbers, compare real costs against real output, and see that fact. Libs should either take climate change seriously, or quit wringing their hands and expecting everybody else to.

I really don't doubt that nuclear energy has a place to provide baseload power in a society that is serious about carbon reduction, so we're on the same page there. But, why don't you provide us the numbers, instead of merely making an unsubstantiated claim? Solar is at about $1.50/Wp of nameplate capacity right now for a utility scale (>10MW) project. What is the current cost of building a new nuclear power plant, in terms of power output? Thanks.

Curt
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Mar 28, 2017 - 09:33pm PT
That's a bit, ummm. How do you know what "we" have done? How long has science been keeping track? 100 maybe 200years. The planet has taken care of herself for what, atleast a million yrs, right? Isn't it true Ed, that earth is just leaving a 11 year cycle of be'in the closest to sun than normally? Who can say we aren't just now feeling the residuals? I mean, it just seems like you guys are jumpin on the first cab that comes by? And that cab smokes!

Certainly we are aware, with increasing precision and accuracy, the history of Earth's climate. Not only that, but our abilities to understand that history have increased dramatically. This has largely been about the attempt to understand the 20th century climate, and predict future climate.

The solar cycles are not a mystery, and there are no "signals" in the climate data that correlate the behavior of the 20th century climate with the solar activity during that same period, a period when solar activity has had its greatest scientific scrutiny.

In the end that understanding of the 20th century climate, and an understanding of the Earth's climate history, cannot be reconciled, something else is required to explain the climate change.

Of all the scenarios which have been proposed, the only one consistent with the data is anthropogenic GHG emission. It is not as if the other scenarios haven't been looked at in great detail, they have, and they do not account for all the observations.

So in the end we are left with that as our best explanation of what is going on. Certainly subject to a host of uncertainties. But what has become apparent is that human activity is the most likely explanation.

Given this likelihood, and the future scenarios implied by it, we are engaged in evaluating a risk. The evidence points to the possibility that without changing this activity the climate will continue to change, and that many of the consequences of those changes could be very disruptive to humans and society as we know it.

We can choose to do nothing, or we can choose to alter our behavior to try to mitigate the consequences. The scenarios indicate that the later we make a decision to mitigate the harder it will be to avoid the negative consequences.

The choice is not an easy one to make, and certainly we may all have very different opinions about what to do. But right now the evidence indicates that the climate change is real, and that it is due to our activities.
nature

climber
Boulder, CO
Mar 28, 2017 - 09:50pm PT
Magnetics
has more than four letters.

duck
, however does knot.
BLUEBLOCR

Social climber
joshua tree
Mar 28, 2017 - 10:03pm PT
Absolutely good answer, Ed. And absolutely not am i naive in thinking mans changing of the environment is not dictating some change in climate. i certainly do. Although, absolutely am i keeping an open mind, and thank you for your awareness:)
BLUEBLOCR

Social climber
joshua tree
Mar 28, 2017 - 10:47pm PT

This has largely been about the attempt to understand the 20th century climate, and predict future climate.

This is the kind of "wizardry" you'all hold over us, isn't it? We see it every night on the news, those hot. chicks "predicting" wether or not it'll rain over the next 7 days. Lol. That's where the media screws ya
monolith

climber
state of being
Mar 29, 2017 - 07:51am PT
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Mar 29, 2017 - 08:36am PT
This is the kind of "wizardry" you'all hold over us, isn't it?

not sure what you're worried about here. This past winter in California is an example of the utility of understanding long term weather trends, i.e. climate.

Should California embark on an extensive dam building program for 1) storing water, or 2) flood control?

You could have the emotional response, based on this last year, that extensive work on all the dams is required, and immediate, but what's the likelihood that we drop back into 5 years of drought?

The choices are somewhat exclusive, too. Running a dam as flood control means it is not filled to the max with water... so how should you operate the reservoirs?

In the past this has been done using "historic" data, which is largely limited to the period between 1915 to 1950, yet we have much more information into the distant past, and regional climate modeling has made progress in forecast accuracy, the same modeling used to study climate change.

Since this infrastructure is very expensive, having the best information on the various climate futures is important.

Of course you could just take your gut feeling, appeal to the emotions of citizens in the state, and go ahead with any old policy ignoring the scientific input.

madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 29, 2017 - 10:52am PT
Solar is at about $1.50/Wp of nameplate capacity right now for a utility scale (>10MW) project. What is the current cost of building a new nuclear power plant, in terms of power output? Thanks.

I'm seriously glad that we're on the same page about something. It's nice to be able to engage in a friendly reply, so here are just a few helpful pages. Of course, there are many more. But the "trends" seem stable.

http://energyrealityproject.com/lets-run-the-numbers-nuclear-energy-vs-wind-and-solar/

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/planetpolicy/2014/05/20/why-the-best-path-to-a-low-carbon-future-is-not-wind-or-solar-power/

From the second one, here is a nice chart:


Hydro offers by far the best bang-for-buck, but it does have major environmental impacts. And there are actually limited places around the USA where new dams could in principle be constructed. This is not to say that hydro is not worth further serious consideration! I'm of the mind that we literally have to "move mountains" at this point to get OFF of fossil fuels. But, hydro has a certain "inflexibility."

Critics, of course, will say that wind/solar/nuclear all require the burning of fossil fuels to get going. For example, it takes approximately six months of comparable fossil-fuel output worth of energy to erect a large wind-turbine. However, that's more than "paid back" thereafter by approximately 30 subsequent years of zero-emission power.

For any power-production, there's a "stand-up cost" in expended energy! But all three, solar/wind/nuclear, FAR outweigh their stand-up costs. And once baseline, renewable energy sources are established, from then on the stand-up energy is no longer the burning of fossil fuels.
Lennox

climber
just southwest of the center of the universe
Mar 29, 2017 - 12:03pm PT


"A geographically resolved method to estimate levelized power plant costs with environmental externalities"


http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516306875
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 29, 2017 - 12:27pm PT
Great article, Lennox!

VERY cool idea to study for localized costs!

I am curious, though, and perhaps I'm just overlooking it, but I didn't see where the authors specify which nuclear technology they are referencing. For example, molten salt reactors appear to be, on average, an order of magnitude cheaper to build per kwh than the "old school" graphite moderated reactors. I really wonder what reactor technology is being considered.

My guess is the "old school" type, as that's what we have the most historical data with which to project costs forward.

TFPU!
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Mar 29, 2017 - 12:34pm PT
I'm seriously glad that we're on the same page about something. It's nice to be able to engage in a friendly reply, so here are just a few helpful pages. Of course, there are many more. But the "trends" seem stable.

Thanks. I'm having a hard time reconciling those articles with real world reality though. As I mentioned above, utility scale solar plants are being built today for about $150/Wp with 20-25 year power purchase agreements (PPA's) to utilities of between $0.03/kWh and $0.04/kWh.

The most recent nuclear reactor to come online here in the United States (Watts Bar 2) on the other hand, cost $4.7 billion to build for 1,165MW of nameplate capacity. At current pricing ($1.50/Wp) a solar plant of the same nameplate capacity could be built for around $1.75 billion. The capacity factor for the nuclear plant is about 3x higher though, so viewed in terms of cost per kWh per-year output, the two are fairly similar. By 2020, however, the cost of large PV installations is anticipated to be around $1.00/Wp.

Curt
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 29, 2017 - 12:42pm PT
Curt, I wonder if the differential you're seeing concerns the fact that nuclear plants run 24/365 (more or less), while solar productivity is typically at about six hours per day and certainly not 365 even in the best locations.

So, in some regions the cost per kwh could appear lower for solar, but spread over a year of output, the cost per, say, mwy could be much higher.

Just groping.
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Mar 29, 2017 - 01:38pm PT
Curt, I wonder if the differential you're seeing concerns the fact that nuclear plants run 24/365 (more or less), while solar productivity is typically at about six hours per day and certainly not 365 even in the best locations.

So, in some regions the cost per kwh could appear lower for solar, but spread over a year of output, the cost per, say, mwy could be much higher.

Just groping.

That's what I meant when I said the capacity factor for nuclear (approx. 90%) is about three times higher than solar (approx. 30%) - at least where I live.

Curt
Byran

climber
Half Dome Village
Mar 29, 2017 - 02:22pm PT
Since hydro-electric was brought up, I thought last week's vlogbrothers video would be worth sharing...

[Click to View YouTube Video]
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Mar 29, 2017 - 02:44pm PT
Couple of problems Madbolter.

Your cost comparison chart of various current technology power production choices is based on nameplate peak production capabilities? If so, it's complete bs because 2 of the methods (wind and solar) are very intermittent and rarely attain the ideal conditions needed to reach nameplate power production.

Second, you seem to have accepted the loons fantasy of a factual basis for the fraudulent consensus that the moderate climate change we've witnessed over the last 150 years is solely, or mostly, the result of anthropogenic release of CO2.

You might as well join the merry little band of travelers at this point. It appears that in the interest of of a strategy for a battle victory you are losing the war.

It's a pity really, because you can be such an effective debater.

I think if you reexamine this issue you'll find that, just like all the other nonsensical issue positions pushed by the left, there is very little truth to their arguments and the science manufactured to lend it credibility.

Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Mar 29, 2017 - 03:45pm PT
I think if you reexamine this issue you'll find that, just like all the other nonsensical issue positions pushed by the left, there is very little truth to their arguments and the science manufactured to lend it credibility.

Science can't answer everything. They're still looking for intelligent life at Rick's keyboard.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/

Curt
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 29, 2017 - 03:56pm PT
Couple of problems Madbolter.

No surprise! Story of my life!

Your cost comparison chart of various current technology power production choices is based on nameplate peak production capabilities? If so, it's complete bs because 2 of the methods (wind and solar) are very intermittent and rarely attain the ideal conditions needed to reach nameplate power production.

Not "my chart." That's Brookings' research and chart.

I believe that you are actually reiterating my point about one of the main superior features of nuclear power. However, my position is really that there is no "one best" energy-generation approach.

For example, if most houses had some/much/all of their own power needs supplied by grid-tied, battery-backed solar (and perhaps wind, where allowed and reasonable), that reduces the base requirements for national power-draw. Same with businesses.

We will almost certainly be starting to build an office building later this year, and we are planning in a large solar array with battery banks and hybrid-grid-tied inverter to supply as much of the building's power needs as possible.

Anything to reduce the base-demand nation-wide will help, and that needs to be handled on an individual basis. Increased awareness, legally paving the way, and government subsidies of such installations will help.

Second, you seem to have accepted the loons fantasy of a factual basis for the fraudulent consensus that the moderate climate change we've witnessed over the last 150 years is solely, or mostly, the result of anthropogenic release of CO2.

Actually, I consider this point to be moot. There are such overwhelming arguments to motivate getting off of fossil-fuels that are completely unrelated to climate change that I find those motivations compelling.

So, I presume no particular "context" in which I am strongly aligned with the climate-change folks for the purposes of asap weaning this nation off of fossil-fuels!

You might as well join the merry little band of travelers at this point. It appears that in the interest of of a strategy for a battle victory you are losing the war.

I actually try to avoid both battles and wars whenever possible. My perspectives on this subject transcend "left" or "right," climate-change or no, and the increased division of this nation on a host of points. I'm seeking consensus WHEREVER it can be found, because I honestly believe that this nation is descending into a morass of epic proportions, and WE need to get TOGETHER with as many shared motivations opposed to our RULERS as possible!

It's a pity really, because you can be such an effective debater.

I do honestly appreciate that sentiment, especially since it's so rarely expressed in these debates. I'm far more often called an idiot and incoherent. LOL

But I really do seek to avoid debate where possible. And I do think that ALL of us could actively get behind a national priority of getting off of fossil fuels!

I think if you reexamine this issue you'll find that, just like all the other nonsensical issue positions pushed by the left, there is very little truth to their arguments and the science manufactured to lend it credibility.

My preference in this context is to treat all such issues "as if" and seek the widest swath of motivational common-ground. I believe that if we the people don't actively seek such a stance, we are going to destroy ourselves debating the details rather than winning the actual war we face against our RULERS.

I sincerely hope that this resonates with you. I'd love to see this thread turn into a productive discussion of METHODS for achieving a worthy end: Getting the nation off of fossil-fuels asap. I'm hoping that both left and right (and libertarian) can draw together on the matter of mutual-interest regarding that goal, regardless of what might be quite disparate motivations and accepted-body-of-fact.

Perhaps not. But I'm hoping and trying!
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Mar 29, 2017 - 04:03pm PT
For example, if most houses had some/much/all of their own power needs supplied by grid-tied, battery-backed solar (and perhaps wind, where allowed and reasonable), that reduces the base requirements for national power-draw. Same with businesses.

It also allows the homeowner to do "peak-shaving" to reduce time-of-use and/or demand charges that are becoming increasingly popular with utilities.

...There are such overwhelming arguments to motivate getting off of fossil-fuels that are completely unrelated to climate change that I find those motivations compelling.

I agree with this sentiment too. National security is among those other reasons.

Curt

madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 29, 2017 - 04:42pm PT
^^^ Indeed!
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Mar 29, 2017 - 05:36pm PT
MB1, a few more things to consider:

1) that Science article about the general need to reduce GHGs provided only a bare outline of various methods that can be used to achieve the goal. It is not pushing one particular method.

You go on to claim that the authors have no authority to claim that a RNCT (Revenue Neutral Carbon Tax) is the best single method. Even though they never made that particular claim, there are actually numerous economists who have.

2) It was claimed: a carbon tax [and always add: revenue neutral, RNCT] is not needed since first we should just stop all fossil fuel subsidies, and then we should outlaw fossil fuels for transport. Of course almost everyone already agrees with stopping fossil fuel subsidies (including that Science article) except the politicians and kooks that have bought into the Koch coolaid.
And outlawing fossil fuels is a step waay beyond a carbon tax. It does not make sense to argue against a phased in RNCT and yet jump all the way to outlawing carbon emissions, which is effectively an infinite tax.

An gradually phased in RNCT does not unfairly punish the poor. The revenue offset can be used to lower taxes on the working class. The poor are just as capable of switching to efficient vehicles as anyone else. You can lease a ecar for $69 per month or buy a used hybrid. Why should a poor person who rides a bike pay the external costs of a poor person who drives a big old pickup truck? And most states already subsidize old vehicles since the license and registration fee drops over its life.

3) That Brookings 2014 paper uses data from 2012. Solar and wind costs have dropped a lot since then. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source#Photovoltaics Additionally, ways to store and backup power when solar and wind are not available have also improved. There is a lot better and more recent data here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source#Levelized_cost_of_electricity

LCOS means levelized cost of electricity
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source#Levelized_cost_of_electricity

All of the charts in this article are based on actual delivered power (not the nominal peaking power of the plant).

The first listed US study adds a carbon price of only $15 per metric ton of carbon dioxide CO2, which is quite low.

Many of the other charts do not even add any carbon fee, for instance the chart of storage costs for different technologies.


3. I still have hopes for nuclear as well, but it seems to require too many government guarantees to make it competitive with smaller scale power where we get the benefits of real competition.
One of the unmentioned costs of nuclear power, as many utilities are now finding, is that the cost to disassemble an old plant costs as much as it did to build it.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 29, 2017 - 06:03pm PT
All good points, Splater. Thank you.

The devil's in the crisp definitions of some key verbiage.

For example, I wouldn't call my perspective "outlawing carbon emissions." Perhaps you didn't intend to attribute that phrase to my perspective, but I do want to make that clear. Personally, I don't believe that it is practically possible to eliminate carbon emissions. So my analogy of "put a man on the moon in a decade" isn't quite right, because there's no clear, bright line about "reducing" carbon emission to "zero" like the famous "one small step...." line.

However, there does need to be a clear-cut, no-nonsense goal rather than some open-ended sort of "just keep trying" mess. That's why I say things like, "Get off of fossil fuels within a decade." I DO believe that a decade is a genuinely possible time-frame to reduce this nation's fossil fuel dependency by, say, 90%, IF we put our national priorities toward that outcome.

Please don't mistake me for being fixated on nuclear. I realize that I've been emphasizing it, but that's because I do think it's a backbone technology about which we NEED to get past the hurdles (mostly fear and suspicion). But you do well to point out the ever-reducing costs of wind and solar. And I think we should also seriously revisit hydro. A multi-pronged attack is what's going to win the day for us!

I also appreciate your emphasis on keeping as much of this transition in the hands of individuals and private companies rather than just "socializing" energy-production. Of course, dams and nuclear plants virtually demand such heavy governmental oversight and involvement that they might as well be "socialized."

But, you know what? I could even live with "socialized energy" in the same sense as we have "socialized money." Energy is SUCH a backbone of life itself, especially national life, that I would even compromise my "libertarian principles" on that point. But, yes, to the extent that we can "carrot" the motivations of individuals, so much the better!

My worry about things like RNCT is that I haven't seen it cast yet in a way that doesn't smack much more of "stick" than "carrot." As just one example....

My company hosts our systems for most of our customers out of a data center near Denver. The cost of power is already the lion's share of what our hosting environment costs us. If a supposedly "RN"CT has the actual effect of doubling or tripling what it costs us to maintain that hosting environment, well, we can't quickly "ramp up" our fees to our customers to compensate. We would take huge losses (perhaps even unsustainable) during any gap between significant cost-increases and our possible fee-increases.

Now, I'd love to be able to tell our customers (all universities and colleges) something like, "You left-wing whackos wanted to push the whole carbon-tax idea, and you GOT it! So, now you IMMEDIATELY get to PAY the increased costs of our doing business, because we must immediately whack you commensurate with how you've whacked us." LOL

But it doesn't work that way. And it's usually the case that the people most wanting a policy change aren't the ones who can be made to most directly feel the "pinch" of the results of the change. I mean, you can't "force" the owners of the data center to "go green" and thus avoid the carbon-tax. And they CAN immediately pass along to customers like us the cost-increases. So, the ultimate "payers," which should be the end-customers, cannot be made to immediately feel the pinch. Instead, it's going to be a company like mine, which is NOT the entity you are really trying to "penalize" with such a tax.

The trouble with any "tax" is that you have to ensure that the CORRECT entities are paying it. That's really hard to accomplish.

I don't see anything I'm saying as a "deal-killer" or anything like that. I'm motivated enough to get off of fossil-fuels that I'll take virtually any proposal seriously. But I am fundamentally suspicious of certain sorts of proposals.

Let's start by REALLY and ENTIRELY eliminating carbon-emission subsidies and redirecting those funds into "carrot" approaches to right-now implementation of technologies we have on hand.
jgill

Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
Mar 29, 2017 - 10:10pm PT
Even though they never made that particular claim, there are actually numerous economists who have


Economics = The Dismal Science
BLUEBLOCR

Social climber
joshua tree
Mar 29, 2017 - 11:23pm PT

Climate denialism is cultural

No more than that statement. Most of the 99 percenters are baby boomers and are only concentrated on goin big, then the rest are just happy to be here and feel CC is just something that comes with the territory. So no one really has the time to care.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Mar 30, 2017 - 08:57am PT
I think the logic of a tax on fossil fuels is precisely that costs of doing business reflect the amount of fossil fuel use involved in conducting that business.

For instance, the cost of shipping products long distances on relatively inefficient ships burning bunker oil goes up if the fuel costs go up, higher prices for those products then compete with lower priced local goods. Etc...

Energy markets operate on rather slim margins, with the costs of producing the energy effecting what is used. Recently, natural gas has had a huge effect on the energy markets, its relatively low cost has depressed coal production, and petroleum extraction, and probably caused the recent bankruptcy of Westinghouse, the major industrial supplier of nuclear power plants in the USA.

It is not a particular party or political view that puts a carbon tax forward as a possible mechanism for mitigating CO₂ emission, and while opinions vary, altering the energy market to "level the field" by recognizing the external costs of the results of energy production would go a long way to shaking out what energy technologies will bring down those emissions.

At some point in the not too distant future, natural gas production will drop off... taking advantage of this time to implement such a tax would probably have an optimum effect on those same energy markets.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Mar 30, 2017 - 11:22am PT
" My worry about things like RNCT is that I haven't seen it cast yet in a way that doesn't smack much more of "stick" than "carrot." As just one example....
My company hosts our systems for most of our customers out of a data center near Denver. The cost of power is already the lion's share of what our hosting environment costs us. If a supposedly "RN"CT has the actual effect of doubling or tripling what it costs us to maintain that hosting environment, well, we can't quickly "ramp up" our fees to our customers to compensate. ..."

Washington state just voted down an RNCT last fall. While not perfect, oddly enough a big factor in the no vote was that groups like the Sierra Club didn't like it because it was too reasonable and practical and didn't support all their wasteful pet projects and new government bureaucracies.

Any well written RNCT would be phased in gradually over 5 years and have adjustments based on market changes, so you have plenty of warning and time to plan ahead. We have already wasted 20 years doing almost nothing. The biggest issue is likely having enough time to consider the efficiency of your next hardware upgrade, which you likely do every 4-5 years anyway. You are already factoring in a certain value to power efficiency so with a carbon fee coming, the value of that efficiency will just increase, making you more likely to choose certain hardware, which keeps getting better every year anyway.

In your case it might make sense to have solar power as the base.
Then it depends on your Local area power situation for you to choose what power you want for a backup. Most of California has good enough net-metering so you can produce excess during the day and operate off the grid at night. Nevada has now forbidden this so in that case it might be best to provide your own secondary power. And eventually there might be so many net metering users expecting their secondary power from the grid that the grid itself will need more than gas turbine peaking plants. Batteries are starting to be cost effective when carbon fees are charged, or maybe something like compressed air or a regional pumped hydro or thermal solar with heat storage. If you have a lot of cooling needs, you can build a cold thermal storage that cools with solar energy during the day and then uses that cold sink at other times for cooling.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 30, 2017 - 11:36am PT
I think the logic of a tax on fossil fuels is precisely that costs of doing business reflect the amount of fossil fuel use involved in conducting that business.

I get that logic. The problem is that it rarely works out as desired in actual practice. My example about our business is a truly classic example.

You would think, for example, that a college would have fairly deep pockets. That's not the case across the country. If we were forced to increase our prices by 50%, probably 1/3 of our schools literally could not afford that, and they would be forced to abandon what they presently consider to be a mission-critical system. That would send their Registrar's office back to the dark ages, running by-hand, paper grad-checks and progress-audits.

So, while our data center would IMMEDIATELY pass along their increased power-costs, WE would end up being the ones absorbing that tax, unable to pass it along to the customers who are actually using that power.

It might be responded, "Well, then, something about that business model is broken," or, "Well, you're never going to get a 'perfect' distribution of that tax, but it's still generally a good idea." But if you'd like to "fix" the entire economics of higher-education, more power to you! Meanwhile, academics does not have the money (without significantly raising tuition) to "cover" such a tax if it were passed along to the schools.

So, okay, raise tuition. Good luck with that. Student-loan debt is already an epic scandal, and that's nationwide, not just at for-profit schools! There's nothing wrong with our business model. There ARE sweeping problems in the economics of higher-ed! So, must we fix that first, so that ALL academic vendors are not getting screwed by a carbon-tax that is "landing" in the wrong place? WE can't afford to just absorb a carbon-tax like that. Many/most schools can't absorb it. The STUDENTS shouldn't have to absorb it. So, WHERE is it going to "land"?

And that's not an isolated question! Most entities are not operating with a lot of "fluff" and "margin" to absorb a large new tax! And you can't ensure that the tax, which IS punitive in reality, is "landing" in the right place. This is just one facet of the economic impact of such a new tax.

Another facet concerns hiring. We are about to hire again. That's yet another FTE created by small business. So, you force us to absorb a big, new tax (we burn a LOT of power!), and BEST case we're not hiring again in the foreseeable future. That has a LOT of unintended economic consequence. Extrapolate the results for just us across tens of thousands of small to medium-sized businesses, and you WILL have a vast and unintended, baleful impact on the economy.

In short, the money has to come from somewhere. And a carbon tax is mostly going to "hit" entirely the wrong entities. It is NOT a "reality of doing business," as you say. It is designed to be punitive, to "hit" the companies using the power. If you want to somehow "normalize" the power-cost of doing business (whatever that would even mean!), then, as I said, let's START by getting artificial subsidies OUT of the fossil-fuel industries, while capping profits in these multi-national companies! If you want to "tax" somebody, start with that!

Then reinvest those funds as I outlined above, and you'll already see a sea-change in how energy is produced and used. Go "carrot" not "stick." Encourage alternative energy production rather than penalize people for just using the energy-sources they presently have available to them!
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 30, 2017 - 12:06pm PT
Splater, everything you're saying is "true" in principle. The problem is that none of it is "free."

If a more efficient server costs twice as much (which is a pretty good estimate) than the several-generations-back one we would have used, it's not a "wash" to be "motivated" to go with the more expensive server!

It's, flatly, an ADDITIONAL cost that we wouldn't have otherwise spent. The money to pay for it doesn't grow on trees. It has to be extracted from our customers, who in turn will extract it (if they even can) from students. WHEN that can't happen, they will tell us that they can't afford our proposed fee increase. So, WHERE does the money come from?

I'm seriously not being "reticent" or stonewalling. I just know what tight margins we operate on, and I know that "absorbing" these ADDITIONAL costs is just not realistic. It's not like we can just reduce our salaries.

And not to belabor the point, but libs literally have NO idea WHAT damage Obamacare caused. It's been years now, and we literally have not yet "normalized" our company economics after that fiasco! And that's with all of us now having MUCH worse plans than we had. We've "bit the bullet" with Obamacare as hard as is possible, and we're STILL hurting from that!

There's a core psychology to this whole thing, and it's one that libs seriously don't seem to get. I'm NOT casting this is a pejorative sense. Really! I'm saying that there is a reality to how the middle-class and small/medium business think, and that's a reality that libs are going to have to really understand before we are going to be ABLE to pull together about something like getting off of fossil fuels.

I'm hoping that we can keep this part of the discussion from descending into epithets, etc. I'm trying to be sincere and forthright here.

ANY approach to this problem that is perceived by the middle-class and small/medium business to be a "tax" or "punitive" in ANY way is simply not going to fly. We're "taxed out," and I mean that. There is NO more blood in the turnip. We're operating on razor-thin margins, and the next "tax" literally is going to cause huge swaths to go belly-up or stop hiring or stop building. You're going to get ZERO growth and a vast, unexpected economic hit.

Your server example was cast as almost "revenue neutral," but I'm telling you that the reality is anything but! Your idea would FORCE us to buy the more expensive server. You can THINK that "But, it is really 'covered' by the fact that you avoid that tax." But it is not "covered." EITHER way, you are forcing us to spend much more money than we would have, and that is money that we don't have to spend. It is NOT "revenue neutral" by any stretch.

Such taxes don't "land" where they should. And due to survival-issues, the middle class and small/medium businesses simply don't have anything more to "give." So, any RNCT is going to have to PROVE that it can INDEED be "revenue neutral," and your example is not.

Again, I WANT to find a way to agree. But I also know the realities of flat-out survival.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Mar 30, 2017 - 01:45pm PT
If you are a high user of fossil fuels, you should pay for your contribution to destroying some of the world. Why should low users be paying your external costs? GNP is not the only measure of success.
Maybe everyone doesn't really need unlimited free bandwidth.

You can bet that server companies will continue to thrive. If yours refuses to upgrade and adapt, it's your problem.
Just like people that drive gas hogs should no longer be subsidized by others.
A gradually phased in RNCF is the best way for government to incentivize people to find the best alternatives.
As soon as the government tries the "carrot" approach and starts subsidizing certain behavior, it becomes a bureaucracy picking winners, inefficient, gamed system. The best thing for the government to subsidize is a certain amount of basic research, and as you said, stop subsidizing fossil fuels.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 30, 2017 - 02:05pm PT
Finally, just to (fairly) rigorously demonstrate my point about server costs, let's consider the price differential between 11th, 12th, and 13th generation Dell Poweredge 1U systems.

First, note that I'm comparing the pricing of Dell's (we use exclusively Dell equipment) R610, R620, and R630 systems, holding the configuration as close to "the same" as possible. Further, to save money, we buy warrantied, refurbished equipment from Stallard Technologies, so the pricing I'm describing here can be easily verified on their site. Finally, in holding the configuration as close to "the same" as possible, I'm focusing strictly on the "base price" increases across the three generations, which does not take into account energy efficiencies introduced by more advanced processor technology. I'll return to that point after the initial comparison.

So, we'll consider "base systems" configured with dual six-core processors, 192GB of quad-ranked, 1333 memory, enterprise DRAC, four NICs, four-post rapid-rails, 2 power cords, dual power supplies, and no OS.

R610 -- $1423
R620 -- $3011
R630 -- $4722

The bang-for-buck is obviously located at three generations back from current, the R610, which is why we perpetually use "third-gen back" hardware. So, the question from a RNCT perspective is: Would we get enough energy efficiency out of first-gen or second-gen systems to offset the increased prices?

I think that it's obvious on the face of it that the answer is "No!" The R620 is not twice as efficient as the R610, although it costs twice as much. In fact, given that the processors in the two systems are "the same" (as close as possible) the efficiency difference is less than 10%.

The major "benefit" to the later-gen platforms is that they open up the possibility of faster, more-efficient processors and MB subsystems. However, these upgrades come at dramatically increased cost. For example, going to 12-core processors in the R630 and holding everything else the same brings the cost to $5977!

Now, that's twice the number of cores, but that's doesn't equate to twice the energy efficiency. In fact, the energy efficiency is closely tied to the sort of application(s) running on the system. We employ virtualization to run our applications, so in theory we could run twice the number of VMs in such a system. In practice, however, that is not the case.

First, we limit the number of VMs we run on any single server, so that we spread fail-over across a number of machines. We could run "more," but not twice the number.

Next, you are rarely saturating CPU in a virtualization environment. So, we would have more "spare cycles" with the higher number of cores, but even with increasing the number of VMs, we would not be getting close to twice the bang-for-buck.

Finally (although MUCH more could be said), the 12-core processors don't pull fewer watts. They just pull fewer watts per cycle. But, again, that doesn't translate into a system that is "twice as energy efficient" for our purposes. It might be around 40% more efficient, but it will never approach twice as efficient.

Yes, we could load up more memory. One of the upsides of the more recent platforms is how much memory they support, coupled with vastly increased drive density. They "can" just "do" more in the same 1U! But they do NOT "do" this "more" at twice the energy-efficiency.

And the costs escalate WILDLY as you pack these servers to "do more" in the higher density! That same R630 with 512GB of memory goes to $10920! Of course, in that system, to load up the VMs to take advantage of that much memory WOULD saturate the CPU cores. So, somewhere in the configuration is a "sweet spot" of matching memory and CPUs to the desired application(s). Finding this sweet spot has a large element of "black art" to it.

The overarching point is that we CANNOT enjoy twice the energy efficiency to go from 11th-gen to 13th-gen systems. Yet, we would spend three to four TIMES as much to move "up" to these "more efficient" systems! Thus, we have perpetually found that we enjoy the best rack-density, energy-efficiency, and cost-benefit by buying systems that are three generations old. Always.

There is MUCH more to say, obviously, but the point is that you cannot just blithely say anything like, "Well just avoid the RNCT by spending 'the money' on more energy-efficient systems." Things do NOT scale that way. And 'the money' is money we would NOT spend if there were no RNCT! The RNCT will FORCE us to spend money we don't have to spend. It's either going to fund a tax, or it's going to fund new systems. But either way, it is NOT "revenue neutral," it CANNOT be, and we will NOT enjoy some vastly improved bang-for-buck that will make it "all good."

And this example is just one example of THE problem (and why people like us are not just "reticent" about things like RNCT proposals). WE see the real-world applications and clearly realize that these proposals ARE punitive, they are damaging, and they are NOT affordable to the backbone companies of this economy.

You cannot be blithe in telling companies like mine to just "suck it up" or "pay our share." As always, such proposals require us to pay MORE than "our share," as how these taxes get "distributed" always have a high degree of arbitrariness.

So, yes, we ARE going to resist anything that smacks of being punitive, because such proposals CANNOT penalize the correct entities, while ensuring that the "energy efficiencies" are actually realized.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 30, 2017 - 02:33pm PT
If you are a high user of fossil fuels, you should pay for your contribution to destroying some of the world.

We're not a "high user." Our data center is. Or, our schools are. Why single us out for special condemnation in the "chain of use." WHO is the one really "using" the fossil fuels in our "chain of use?"

Can your RNCT ensure that ONLY the data center gets hammered and not us? No! Okay, then can you ensure that our customers, who are really the "end users" are the ones getting hammered? No!

Such taxes ALWAYS "land" in the wrong place.

Why should low users be paying your external costs?

I have no idea what that question means? Are you asking whether it's "right" for us to pass along our real costs, like EVERY other company in existence does?

In point of fact, it's the STUDENTS using our systems that "should" pay the costs of the fossil fuels that THEIR demand is causing. So, ensure that THEY are the ones hit by the tax.

Oh, but that's a hard nut to crack. Isn't it? But why should WE and ONLY WE have to be the "landing place" of the tax? WE are not the ones burning the fossil fuel! Our data center is. Or our students are. WE are just providing a service that THEY want, so THEY are the ones ultimately burning the fuel.

You can bet that server companies will continue to thrive. If yours refuses to upgrade and adapt, it's your problem.

See, it's just that sort of blithe, offhanded, almost snide comment that alienates the VERY people you WANT to get alongside you. People like you are not running a company like ours. You do not know our realities. And your phrase "server companies" shows with what broad strokes you are painting.

You might as well say, "You can be sure that SOME companies [of ANY sort] will thrive. If yours can't, it's your problem." But that's pure crap. Flatly. Your RNCT WILL bury some companies that would otherwise be doing just fine. Other completely unrelated companies will emerge.

But you HONESTLY have NO idea of the economic implications of such a broad-strokes, blithe attitude. And that is the fundamental problem people like me are always going to have with the liberal attitude! You are quick to spend OTHER people's money, and you are HARSH in responding to them when they question whether or not their are BETTER ways to accomplish the same goals.

The argument that says, "But we've been doing nothing for 20 years! We HAVE to do SOMETHING" is entirely fallacious! It is OFTEN the case that doing nothing is better than doing the wrong thing! And you have not even come CLOSE to demonstrating that any presently-proposed RNCT is NOT the wrong thing!

And you will not "convince" people like me by just harshly saying, "If you can't 'fit it in,' then DIE!"

You first have to convince us that it's even RIGHT for us to 'fit it in' in order to garner support.

Just like people that drive gas hogs should no longer be subsidized by others.

Bad analogy! People have a HUGE range of choices regarding cars. And a person is just STUPID to drive a gas-guzzling hog at this point. But even then, a better approach would be an increased GAS tax rather than a sweeping RNCT! But sharp contrast, a tech company hosting systems is stuck with whatever energy is provided by a data center. It's not like shopping for a different car! Like Internet providers, the range of options is VERY limited, and they all do business in basically the same way. So, server-hosting is NOTHING like choosing to buy a gas-guzzler!

A gradually phased in RNCF is the best way for government to incentivize people to find the best alternatives.

That's just an assertion that's demonstrably false. If it WERE the best way (including the necessary psychological implications), then WHY are people voting it down every chance they get?

At present, you are NOT winning the "war of ideas" regarding a carbon tax. And you WILL NOT as long as you approach the discussion with the attitude you just exhibited. You cannot tell people that SHARE your end goals that the MEANS you are going to CRAM down their throat is necessarily: "Buck up or die! I don't even care which!"

The response you WILL get to such an attitude is: Fvck YOU! I choose to LIVE, which means burying your proposed RNCT, because it is NOT revenue-neutral!

And then you'll bemoan how "the right" just doesn't care about the planet, which is, again, a broad-brush misinterpretation of why your RNCT proposals don't get adopted.

We are NOT going to sit back and be penalized into oblivion. And until you seriously think-through the ACTUAL revenue-flows that are affected by such proposals, we are NOT going to blithely let you get away with yet another punishment of the middle-class and small/medium businesses.

As soon as the government tries the "carrot" approach and starts subsidizing certain behavior, it becomes a bureaucracy picking winners, inefficient, gamed system.

So, you don't like one approach because it's possible to nit-pick it. Thus, the ONLY alternative is to, yet again, penalize the middle-class and small/medium businesses???

Sorry, but if this is how you're going to approach the discussion, you'll quickly find vast resistance on the part of the very people that WANT what you want. If you can do nothing but alienate such people, you have only yourself to blame with "nothing gets done" into the future.

Consensus here cannot emerge from an attitude that says, "Do it my way and ONLY my way, even if it means your death, which, btw, I won't mourn!"

I fail to believe that it's IMPOSSIBLE to incentivize energy efficiencies and exercise integrity-oversight. If you believe that it is, then WHY would you believe that it is even possible to implement a carbon TAX (that instead penalizes) in a fair way? I've already shown why you CANNOT ensure that the "landing place" is correct, and you really have no good answer to that problem.

The costs of doing business ARE going to be passed along! So, in our case, you RNCT is NOT "revenue-neutral," and it IS going to increase the cost of higher-education. But, okay, the STUDENTS, who are really the consumers, ARE going to pay.

NOW you can exhibit your same attitude toward them: "Hey, if you can't afford the REAL costs of education, then don't get educated!"

How do like that implication when the REAL consumers of that energy are targeted? Still "revenue neutral" after all?

The best thing for the government to subsidize is a certain mount of basic research, and as you said, stop subsidizing fossil fuels.

Again, pure assertion. I don't know THE "best way," and neither do you. But I DO know that the "best way" has not yet been demonstrated to include just arbitrarily punishing people for using the energy they MUST use from sources over which they have no control!
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Mar 30, 2017 - 06:46pm PT
You just continue to think your case is special (just like half of all Amerivictims) and your company shouldn't pay the external costs of its own behavior.

"You are quick to spend OTHER people's money"
Wrong, You just don't get it. The high GHG emitters are the ones causing the issue, not those who want to charge them for it.

"a better approach would be an increased GAS tax rather than a sweeping RNCT"
A gasoline (& diesel) tax is a form of limited carbon tax. However it misses too many carbon emitters. "ZEV" cars pay no tax, yet in some states most electricity comes from coal. There is no reason to exempt electricity generation and home heating from the same basic policy. The purpose is to disincentivize GHG emissions of ALL sorts, which thereby spurs people into alternate actions.

"we are NOT going to blithely let you get away with yet another punishment of the middle-class and small/medium businesses."

You are misreading yet again. There is no overall tax. It's revenue neutral. High GHG emitters will pay their external costs. The revenue will simply be transferred to low GHG emitters (who pay less in the RNCF).

"NOT "revenue neutral," it CANNOT be"

By legal and mathematical definition, a good RNCF IS revenue neutral. Zero = 0.
All revenue taken in is paid out, (just not to high emitters)
to reduce other taxes such as Soc Sec, working class income tax, etc.

"any RNCT is going to have to PROVE that it can INDEED be "revenue neutral"

Nothing could be more simple: Here is a rough basic wording of one example RNCF where all the revenue is paid out to the working class (just to pick one possibility):

Year one: All GHG emissions in the country are estimated. This involves some consensus of the CO2 surface equivalence of some other sources such as jet travel, methane, etc.
Year two: All GHG emissions are taxed at X % per equivalent surface ton of CO2. At the same time, the estimated revenue based on the year one projections is used to lower working class federal income and federal payroll tax brackets so the RNCF revenue balances the revenue paid out. There is no new government bureaucracy needed to lower the brackets since these brackets already exist. There is only a small government bureaucracy expansion needed to expand the federal gas fee to include all oil, coal, & natural gas, and come up with some system to quantify methane leaks. An option would be to add in all people who burn more than ~ 1/2 cord of wood or equivalent, especially if there is any sign of increased dirty biomass burning. They would self declare their amount of wood burned and pay the fee on the typical GHGs; any violation is the same as not paying your income taxes.

Year three and follows: Increase the tax/fee rate another increment, while adjusting the payout tax brackets to make up any tiny difference from the previous year and make the system more exact each year so there is no delta between revenue in and revenue out.

The exact fee amount X would be worked out in consensus with global climate treaties. Maybe something like $15 per ton to start (quite tiny) increasing to $50 per ton after 6 years. These amounts can be adjusted as needed based on their effect on total global GHG emissions. (Values are just a guess. It would have to be agreed on by most big countries) (And secondly I doubt if any of this will happen in the next 4 years, so this is really just all pissing into the wind.)

Separate And NECESSARY Law:
Year three and follows: All imports from countries not trying as hard to reduce and charge for GHGs shall be taxed at a rate to make them priced as if they had a policy as effective as the USA.


"how these taxes get "distributed" always have a high degree of arbitrariness."
No they don't, as I just demonstrated. Far less arbitrary than taxes under the existing system that allow extremely low overall brackets for the Trumps, Romneys, Buffets, Gates, Waltons, and hedge funders. And that allows writeoffs for private jumbo jets, luxury sports boxes, etc.


Those models from Dell are just some of your short term options. You have many others. I know nothing about your particulars. Just that computers will continue to evolve and get better. Green electricity source choices will continue to improve. The E5 Zeon will soon have a Kaby Lake upgrade, just like the E3 already does. Consider a paradigm shift: Users can indeed pay fees for huge usage.

"Hey, if you can't afford the REAL costs of education, then don't get educated!"
The actual amount of fee per student would be tiny, so your objection is quite spurious.

" We're not a "high user." Our data center is. Or, our schools are. Why single us out for special condemnation in the "chain of use."

I am lumping all of you together, which is obviously the only way society can consider the issue. It is up to all of your elements to figure out how to deal with society deciding to charge the emitter for the reality of climate change.

A 30% rise in wholesale source electricity rates equates to far less percentagewise on a retail level because your power company has many other costs and markups.

" WHY are people voting it [RNCF] down every chance they get?"
Because right now just like you and Koch, they are getting away with not paying for their own external costs.
and because they have a mentality that thinks a RNCF is an additional tax, when it isn't; it's a tax SHIFT.
and because they have been conditioned by past history and culture into faux logic.
and they have not been given many chances to directly vote on such a specific proposal. I know in the US only of the Washington state example, which might pass the second time.
However the problem with state initiatives is that they are unilateral, which is not very effective. All GHG policy needs to be enforced globally, as in my example above. State action could at least start with initiatives that say that: as soon as states totaling over 50% of the population of the country also enact such rules, then our RNCF will begin.


I said: "A gradually phased in RNCF is the best way for government to incentivize people to find the best alternatives.
As soon as the government tries the "carrot" approach and starts subsidizing certain behavior, it becomes a bureaucracy picking winners, inefficient, gamed system. The best thing for the government to subsidize is a certain mount of basic research, and as you said, stop subsidizing fossil fuels."

" Again, pure assertion. I don't know THE "best way," and neither do you"


If you look at my whole paragraph (and not take it out of context), I am saying it is best for society to take the path of least government involvement. An RNCF does not pick winners, so it doesn't assert the best way.
You have presented no alternative policy, only that you want to nitpick the RNCF, while in the meantime the earth burns.
What you are really saying is the best way is to do nothing, which is of course, more self delusion on your part.
Eliminating fossil fuel subsides and increasing the gas tax are a great start, but they are not nearly big enough changes to significantly affect total GHGs, so those ideas do not count as a comparable BIG plan in the long run.

your exact words are:
"It is OFTEN the case that doing nothing is better than doing the wrong thing!


You seem to be unable to see the big picture. No public policy can ever be scientifically fully proven. (so in your view that means it's best to continue the existing policy, even though that has been proven ineffective. Here's just one reading for you - see my next post.
I'm sure you can find countless opinions to the opposite at alt/faux news.

"only yourself to blame with "nothing gets done" into the future."
I have already given up on most of the 46% of Americans who voted for Trump. Obviously we will only be taking steps backwards for the next four years. I take no responsibility for this idiocy. Their own culture of faux news and nonscience is what convinced them. I don't care if you don't like me. It's not my job to be your friend and nicely convince you of reality. I think you are immune to the full cost of your own actions. I am not a politician and not very optimistic. I believe that no-nothings may ruin the world at the rate we are going. Eventually either more of you will die off or we will just all kill each other like certain places around the world. In the meantime I will continue to belittle your self centered argument that you MUST emit large amounts of GHGs.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Mar 30, 2017 - 06:52pm PT
from http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=2899333&msg=2940148#msg2940152
Splater
Feb 3, 2017 - 06:51pm PT

I'm going to quote a bit from the article Malemute posted
https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/2017/01/31/a-climate-change-economist-sounds-the-alarm
about the danger of waiting any longer to act. Those who can only handle 140 characters may exit now and return to watching the alt universe.

Basically one of the lead economists has changed his mind that it was better to wait until renewable technology was perfected until taking much action. Even in 2007 this was a dubious claim since by then there were already available choices such as highly efficient hybrid cars, toll roads, and lower-fossil fuel power, and carbon taxes. He has adjusted all his variables so that now his predictions are similar to the IPCC.

"Some people who study climate change believe that addressing it later -- when economic growth has made humanity wealthier -- would be better than taking drastic measures immediately. Now, though, one of this group's most influential members appears to have changed his mind.

In the early 1990s, Yale's William Nordhaus was among the first to examine the economics of reducing carbon emissions. Since then, he and colleagues have mixed climate physics with economic modeling to explore how various policies might play out both for global temperatures and growth. The approach attempts to weigh, in present-value terms, the costs of preventative measures against the future benefit of avoiding disaster.

Nordhaus has [as of 2007 - see link] mostly argued for a small carbon tax, aimed at achieving a modest reduction in emissions, followed by sharper reductions in the medium and long term. Too much mitigation now, he has suggested, would damage economic growth, making us less capable of doing more in the future. This view has helped fossil fuel companies and climate change skeptics oppose any serious policy response.

In his latest analysis, though, Nordhaus comes to a very different conclusion. Using a more accurate treatment of how carbon dioxide may affect temperatures, and how remaining uncertainties affect the likely economic outcomes, he finds that our current response to global warming is probably inadequate to prevent temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius above their pre-industrial levels, a stated goal of the Paris accords.

Worse, the analysis suggests that the required carbon-dioxide reductions are beyond what's politically possible. For all the talk of curbing climate change, most nations remain on a business-as-usual trajectory. Meanwhile, further economic growth will drive even greater carbon emissions over coming decades, particularly in developing nations.

Nordhaus deserves credit for changing his mind as the results of his analyses have changed, and for focusing on the implications of current policies rather than making rosy assumptions about the ability of new technologies to achieve emission reductions in the future...
Nonetheless, the shift in his assessment is stark. For two decades, the advice has been to do a little but mostly hold off. Now, suddenly, the message is that it's too late, that we should have been doing a lot more and there's almost no way to avoid disaster.

Perhaps the main lesson is that we shouldn’t put too much trust in cost-benefit calculations, the standard economic recipe for making policy decisions.
In the case of climate change, they are inherently biased toward inaction: It's easy to see the costs of immediate emissions reductions, and much harder to quantify the benefits of avoiding a disaster likely to materialize much farther in the future. By the time the nature and impact of that disaster become clear, it may be too late to act."

2007 paper
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/homepage/documents/Nordhaus_stern_jel.pdf

Dec 2016 paper
"The present study finds the opposite result. When taking uncertainties into account, the strength of policy (as measured by the social cost of carbon or the optimal carbon tax) would increase, not decrease. "
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Mar 30, 2017 - 07:25pm PT
Both a tax on GHG emissions and a cap-and-trade program for those emissions would represent market-based approaches to cutting emissions and would achieve any desired amount of emission reduction at a lower cost than the regulatory approach described above. In contrast with a tax, a cap-and-trade program would provide certainty about the quantity of emissions from sources that are subject to the cap (because it would directly limit those emissions), but it would not provide certainty about the costs that firms and households would face for the greenhouse gases that they continued to emit.


https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/2016/52288
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 30, 2017 - 11:49pm PT
You just continue to think your case is special (just like half of all Amerivictims) and your company shouldn't pay the external costs of its own behavior.

I don't think that that is what I'm doing. I believe that my case is instead a classic and broadly-applicable exemplar of what a huge pile of small/medium businesses face. We find ourselves in a position of being forced to use (lots) of energy, the source of which we have no control over.

I've reread your post about a dozen times, and I think that our present disconnect comes down to some pretty straightforward definitional disconnects.

For example, you keep using the phrase "external costs," but that phrase has not traditionally been employed in the context you are now using it. In fact, it actually seems that the CC folks are co-opting it so that things like RNCT ideas will fit neatly within an established and credible economic idea.

But that's really where the devil's in the details! So, perhaps, let's start with this particular question to sharpen up the issue:

* Why should what we pay for server co-location (which is largely the cost of power) be considered an "external cost" rather than a typical cost-of-doing-business?

See, as an "external cost," you seem to be arguing that WE should pay a tax to properly reflect some, well, "external" cost that is NOT captured in our cost-of-doing-business, and, thus, we should NOT be trying to pass that "cost" on to our customers (ultimately, the students that use our systems).

So, I really need to understand how you define "external cost" in such a way as to differentiate what we pay for power from just another cost-of-doing-business that we DO figure into our pricing structure.

The next question would be:

HOW does your proposed model ensure that the correct entity in the causal chain is the ONE (and only) that pays the RNCT on the "external cost"?

I mean, surely your model doesn't have, say, the data center, then us, then our schools, then their students, ALL paying some RNCT on the mere fact that it takes power to serve students. And, really, even the data center isn't the real start of the decision-making chain here that's choosing to drive the "gas-guzzler"! The utility companies that serve our region are the ones ultimately making the decision about how our power is going to be derived. So, if anything, THEY should be covering their "external cost" and NOT passing that along to the "consumers" they serve.

So, yes, please explain how a carbon tax is "recapturing" an "external cost" that is differentiated from just a cost-of-doing-business. And please explain how the RNCT model ensures that the "guilty" party is the one paying the tax. That will help me get my mind around the details of the proposal as you see it. Thank you.

madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 31, 2017 - 12:14am PT
but it would not provide certainty about the costs that firms and households would face for the greenhouse gases that they continued to emit.

And THERE is the reality that the middle-class and small/medium businesses rightly fear!

I came home for dinner before heading back to the office this evening, and I was thinking about these things. Distracted as I was, I closed the garage door (burning some electricity) forgetting that the recently-emptied recycling tub was still in the back of the car. I can't open the hatch with the garage door closed. So, I opened the garage door (burning more electricity), removed the tub, and put it into its proper location in the house. I then closed the garage door again (obviously, again burning more electricity).

Later, it occurred to me, "Hey, I guess I could have removed the tub when I opened the garage door to go back to the office. That would have saved a complete open/close cycle and some juice. Of course, we did put things into the recycling tub while making dinner, so it would have been a hassle to not have the tub available."

But that leads to a host of questions....

* How much hassle must one endure to NOT burn a bit of electricity?

* How much electricity do we very-indirectly burn to recycle and have that material processed?

* IF we were being taxed on our electricity usage, how much of a "hit" would it take for us to feel like avoiding that garage-door-cycle was worth paying genuine attention to?

* How DETAILED does our awareness of electricity-burn have to get before it makes a real difference? (I mean, we already do all the standard things, like turn off lights upon leaving a room, etc.)

In short, how much does a RNCT have to "hit us where we live" to have the desired effect (apparently, the desired effect) of forcing us to consciously consider every single micro-watt we burn?

Given that we have NO idea (per the above quote), and CAN have no idea, what any particular RNCT model will actually cost us, HOW paranoid about energy-burn do we need to become "just to be on the safe side"? And how is that "awareness" (that really becomes so maddeningly odious that we revolt) ultimately affect the the choice of technologies adopted by our utility companies (over which WE really have no control)?

Again I say, it sure seems like a RNCT is "hitting" entirely the wrong entities, and I see no sense in which the proponents are taking this fact seriously. It's like "Hit 'em! Hit 'em ALL!" is the mantra. But why should I be "hit" for operating my garage door in "not the absolutely most efficient manner," when the REAL problem actually concerns the FACT that I have zero control over what technology my utility company is using?

THE issue concerns macro-level decisions about power-generation technologies that individuals and small/medium businesses have basically zero control over.

We can VOTE and thereby indirectly have some effect, but beyond that, we're at the mercy of decision-makers FAR, FAR above us. Yet a RNCT penalizes US not them, because they ARE going to pass along the "external cost" (as you all seem to like to conveniently call it) on to US. And in ADDITION to paying for THEIR RNCT, we are going to get to pay "our own" as well, as there was an "external cost" to running our household that includes every cycle of the garage door!

You proponents seem to like to assert that there is nothing arbitrary about how the RNCT "hits" entities, but it appears to be the exact opposite: entirely arbitrary. Even the cited article talks about just setting some arbitrary figure, like $15 per ton, on the "cost," but that IS the point!

See, with REAL "external costs," for each one there is an ACTUAL cost that can be measured, calculated out like how a gas-tax supports the DEMONSTRABLE costs of road repair, and so on. But a CARBON tax is by its nature arbitrary, because you have NO (and I do mean ZERO) capability to calculate REAL costs for such vagaries as "harming the planet". You just SAY that there is "such and such harm," but whatever you claim on that front is highly debatable, and establishing such "costs" has NO precedent whatsoever.

So, please account for the REAL costs of carbon, and please explain how ANY RNCT can possibly ensure that the correct entities are being hit. (And I'm not even yet talking about the arbitrariness of singling out Americans for special pain, when most of the carbon-violator countries will have nothing to do with this whole model.)
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Mar 31, 2017 - 12:19pm PT
MB1, you are misreading that quote.
It says that carbon Cap & Trade credits are difficult to predict, "In contrast with a tax"
The cost of the tax is obvious.

There are many different ways society can reduce GHG emissions. Some are simpler than others which is why the RNCF should play an important role.

As far as the question about how an RNCF is applied in order to charge for the worldwide negative effects of GHGs and discourage them:
It is applied to whoever burns the fossil fuel.
It's that simple.
Some of the burners: fossil fuel power plants, combustion engines, fossil fuel heat for buildings
The burner may pass that cost along as they want or can, depending mostly on whether there is a competitive market for alternate sources.
Charging the burner for the external costs says NOTHING about how those costs are passed along.
The higher the RNCF gets, the more competitive the market will get for alternate green sources, esp in the long run, which is why the RNCF should be phased in.

Similar to how free roads leads to more driving & sprawl, and toll roads lead to less driving, and efficient alternatives.

As far as the question about all the minor ways you can save electricity: most of those won't make any significant difference. The biggest uses are refrigeration, incandescent lights, air conditioning & electrical heat esp. with poor insulation, and leaving lots of powered electronics such as TV's and computers running all the time. Many of these things are more efficient than in the past. Often this is due to government rules, so you're right sometimes pure regulation works better than a tax. For instance, renters have only small control over some of the electrical loads in rental units, especially in areas with tight housing supply. Another example is rules on lowering parasitic loads of electronics not in use.

In other cases just because a better product is available, people won't buy it if they can go on using their old item at low cost and don't have to pay the external costs. Having more efficient vehicles for sale doesn't get people to stop using old ones. Right now because fuel is so cheap, few people want to buy green vehicles. The incentives and tax credits for green cars and solar power help shift this equation, and also drive development of even better green technology. So already the cost of green electricity is on the path to reasonable. Some of those policies add more overhead administrative cost than a simple tax, but are still an important part of adding environmental benefits into decision making, just like adding sulfur scrubbers to coal plants, catalytic converters to cars, low sulfur diesel, sewage plants, penalties for toxic leaks and dumping, required recycling, pesticide rules, etc.

External costs are difficult to calculate exactly even when the issues are clear (such as global warming, ocean acidification, rising sealevel, lost water sources, and lost agriculture in some areas), and deniers love to use that as an lame excuse to do nothing. But it's not important that we calculate the costs exactly; the impacts are already clear enough to start charging significantly in order to discourage GHGs.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 31, 2017 - 01:23pm PT
It is applied to whoever burns the fossil fuel.
It's that simple.

I don't think that the "simple" answer is yet explicating. A coal plant producing electricity is a classic example of a "burner," so it seems clear that the company operating that plant would pay a tax. However, it's not clear where else this tax would land. For example, would there be an increase in gasoline taxes, because, after all, a car is a "burner" as well. So are gas ranges in homes, so would there be an additional tax on NG SOURCES, such that I would get whacked a little each time I turn on my stove?

I'm still asking how fine-grained and ubiquitous the tax would be.

The burner may pass that cost along as they want or can, depending mostly on whether there is a competitive market for alternate sources.

Ah, so this is getting back to my earlier point. You said that I SHOULD NOT pass along my "external costs" to, for example, the students my company serves. You said....

"If you are a high user of fossil fuels, you should pay for your contribution to destroying some of the world. Why should low users be paying your external costs?... You can bet that server companies will continue to thrive. If yours refuses to upgrade and adapt, it's your problem."

I took that as a quite provocative statement to say, "YOU have an external cost that YOU should pay and NOT pass along. And if you can't survive while paying that external cost, then bye-bye."

But now I hear....

Charging the burner for the external costs says NOTHING about how those costs are passed along.

Okay, so you agree that it's legitimate for us to pass along our "external costs" to our end-users, the students. That's a step forward in our discussion.

The higher the RNCF gets, the more competitive the market will get for alternate green sources, esp in the long run, which is why the RNCF should be phased in.

We could debate this point a LOT, but I prefer to just grant it to you, because I believe that there are bigger fish to fry.

Similar to how free roads leads to more driving & sprawl, and toll roads lead to less driving, and efficient alternatives.

Ah, and that's part of where the debate could really get heated! You see, here around Denver, just in the past five years traffic has gotten EPIC! It's worse than L.A. and as bad as Portland or Seattle (I've had extensive and recent experience with all).

Meanwhile, over the last five years, the State and municipal government have created more and more toll-highways and toll-express lanes (3+ occupants for free). And the effect has DEMONSTRABLY been the OPPOSITE of what was clearly desired (and what you have projected).

Traffic on the non-toll highways and non-toll lanes has become impassable! Meanwhile the toll-highways and lanes are virtually empty. People by and large are NOT choosing to pay to travel on these low-trafficked highways and lanes. Instead, they just sit in a parking lot from the North municipalities into Denver for 1 1/2 hours (what used to take 20 minutes).

Human psychology is not as "neat" nor predicable as you say. And right here in Denver we see the evidence of the FACT that people are NOT choosing to "conform to the model" as you would expect.

In other cases just because a better product is available, people won't buy it if they can go on using their old item at low cost and don't have to pay the external costs.

Again, it's much more complicated than you suggest, as is evidenced by Denver traffic. People are ACTIVELY choosing against the "green" alternative and are instead RAGING against the policy-makers who (idiotically) decided that it would be better to devote four-lanes-worth of right-of-way to ONE HOV lane than to just create four TRAFFIC lanes! Not only is their behavior NOT conforming to the model, but they RAGE against the model itself!

Having more efficient vehicles for sale doesn't get people to stop using old ones. Right now because fuel is so cheap, few people want to buy green vehicles. The incentives and tax credits for green cars and solar power help shift this equation, and also drive development of even better green technology. So already the cost of green electricity is on the path to reasonable.

But now, it seems that you're making MY point rather than a point in favor of any form of CT. You provide incentives to go green rather than penalize people for not doing it.

External costs are difficult to calculate exactly even when the issues are clear (such as global warming, ocean acidification, rising sealevel, lost water sources, and lost agriculture in some areas), and deniers love to use that as an lame excuse to do nothing.

Well, again, I believe that the issue is FAR more complicated than you are describing. For example, I don't yet have a definition of HOW carbon is an "external cost" in the slightest! I've been going along in this discussion "as if" you had provided one. But I'm reiterating here that I don't yet get it.

As I said before, the notion of an "external cost" is well-established in economic terms. But there is NO precedent for connecting that term to anything like the vagaries of climate change!

Thus, the situation is FAR more undefined and arbitrary than you admit by saying, "External costs are difficult to calculate exactly even when the issues are clear...." That entire paragraph quickly slips into the the us/them bifurcation where anybody not immediately buying into a particular proposed "solution" is lumped into the "denier" camp and demonized.

You also slip into what I believe is an EXTREMELY fallacious argument about the evils of "doing nothing." I don't think that proponents of cap and trade or carbon tax proposals are taking seriously HOW tenuous and untested such proposals would be in this sort of context, HOW questionable are the outcomes, and HOW often human psychology just DEFIES the models! It is OFTEN the case that "doing nothing" is far, far better than doing the wrong thing!

Had the State and city planners "done nothing" regarding the building of new lanes on the I25, for example, we would have effectively netted one lane of normal traffic flow! They took away one lane (and then some) to expand the HOV lane, and that is one lane LESS that is actually available to "everybody" who refuse to use the HOV lane. This is a classic example of "doing something" having a demonstrable WORSE net effect than "doing something," because people simply DEFY the model.

You HONESTLY (really, be honest about it) have NO idea how this nation full of people is going to react to this or that implementation of this or that proposal.

Meanwhile, I have NO idea how you could possibly connect up a COST of "carbon" to any non-arbitrary tax! Carbon is simply NOT an "external cost" in anything like every other employment of that phrase in economics/business.

But it's not important that we calculate the costs exactly; the impacts are already clear enough to start charging significantly in order to discourage GHGs.

Actually, you'll have real trouble getting widespread consensus on that very point! And the more CLOSELY you are able to demonstrate actual costs, the more credible will be your claim that carbon IS an "external cost." At present, no aspect of that connection has been credibly demonstrated. You take as established fact what is at best utterly vague and highly debatable. But, as I said, this is precisely where the devil's in the DETAILS!

Here is a pretty credible scientist (Princeton physicist) summarizing the issues we're discussing. The last fifteen seconds in particular really sum up my perspectives.

[Click to View YouTube Video]
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Mar 31, 2017 - 01:45pm PT
I am driving a Honda Civic now. I did have a 2WD Toyota Pickup.

I can't believe how much money I save.

Right now, I believe that we are screwed, because even if the U.S. began using clean fuels, the Indians and the Chinese will not. China has a huge strategic problem: They have almost no oil production. That is why they are taking over the South China Sea. We will not get off of fossil fuels until something truly cheaper comes along. Modern nuclear plants are the obvious choice.

China sits on vast coal reserves, so guess what? They are burning coal. Petroleum Geologists HATE coal, because it is so dirty. We aren't all of one mind when it comes to climate change, either.

Sequence Stratigraphy is based on high and low stands of seawater. The only way to accomplish this is usually global continental ice sheets. Sea level can rise and fall very quickly, and we see this in the fossil record. So the Earth IS sensitive to conditions, and greenhouse gasses are part of that picture, although the big cycles seem to fit Milankovitch Cycles.

We can see past CO2 amounts from certain fossils. In the fossil record, CO2 has changed, causing past climate cycles. It has happened before, when the CO2 source was vast periods of vulcanism, but we are creating the equivalent right now.

It is pretty straight forward. A guy like Jody will never accept those results, though. His mind is made up. He is a good soldier, marching along with his religious and political group.

The Earth doesn't care if you are a Republican or not.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Mar 31, 2017 - 02:09pm PT
MB: I looked up William Happer on Wiki. They have a nice page about him. Everyone should read it. He's a physicist, not a climatologist. You can read about his anti-climate change stance on the page. They quote him as saying that CO2 is similar to the Jews under Hitler.

Here is something funny. Greenpeace sucker punched him:

In December 2015 Happer was targeted in a sting operation by the environmental activist group Greenpeace; posing as consultants for a Middle Eastern oil and gas company, they asked Happer to write a report touting the benefits of rising carbon emissions. Concerned that the report might not be trusted if it was known that it was commissioned by an oil company, Happer discussed ways to obscure the funding[clarify]. Happer asked that the fee be donated to the climate-change skeptic organization CO2 Coalition, who suggested he reach out to the Donors Trust, in order to keep the source of funds secret; hiding funding in this way is lawful under US law. Happer acknowledged that his report would probably not pass peer-review with a scientific journal.[28]
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 31, 2017 - 02:51pm PT
He's a physicist, not a climatologist.

I hope that doesn't mean that he has no credibility to say what he said to Congress. If that's the case, then Ed will have little to contribute here, since he's "just" a physicist also.

;-)
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Mar 31, 2017 - 04:40pm PT
"Ah, so this is getting back to my earlier point. You said that I SHOULD NOT pass along my "external costs" to, for example, the students my company serves. You said....
"If you are a high user of fossil fuels, you should pay for your contribution to destroying some of the world. Why should low users be paying your external costs?... You can bet that server companies will continue to thrive. If yours refuses to upgrade and adapt, it's your problem."
I took that as a quite provocative statement to say, "YOU have an external cost that YOU should pay and NOT pass along. And if you can't survive while paying that external cost, then bye-bye."
-------


Another miscommunication. I never said or meant you shouldn't pass along your costs to the computer users. I was talking about: Low users OF GHGs should not pay the external costs of High emitters.
I was never talking about whether you should pass along the fee. If possible you should; of course at some level that may take a lot of administration. It's the same type of thing as wireless companies charging more for unlimited service, or throttling you if you use more than a certain typical amount. Not having good user fees is the same type of thing as providing free or one charge trash pickup, sewage, etc. If each user of a service does not pay more when they use more, then the minimal users are subsidizing the biggest users.


"Instead, they just sit in a parking lot from the North municipalities into Denver for 1 1/2 hours (what used to take 20 minutes). .. Human psychology is not as "neat" nor predicable as you say"

Actually that is exactly what I would predict. The same thing happens on toll roads in Mexico and So Cal when there is still another free road alternative. Toll roads only work when ALL roads are toll roads. Right now there are a bunch of laws forbidding many existing roads from being converted to toll roads. Those laws would have to change to disallow the loophole of free driving on those roads.

"You provide incentives to go green rather than penalize people for not doing it."
I am not arguing against incentives that work. But they don't all work and are often corrupted with special interests, waste, abuse, favoritism etc. User fees are the simplest tool, as you have already suggested with higher gas taxes which is indeed a fee meant to discourage high users.

"Carbon is simply NOT an "external cost" in anything like every other ..."
Of course it is. You are incorrect. It is just bigger than many other external costs such as the cost of acid rain or mercury raining down on fish and water supplies, the cost of sprawl, the cost of being dependent on OPEC, the cost of fracking, the cost of all suspected cancer causing chemicals, the cost of smog, the cost of lead pollution, the cost of dams on fish, the cost of copper based paint, etc, etc, etc.

"Actually, you'll have real trouble getting widespread consensus on that very point! And the more CLOSELY you are able to demonstrate actual costs, the more credible will be your claim that carbon IS an "external cost." At present, no aspect of that connection has been credibly demonstrated."

And now you have gone off the deep end into absolute Denierism. I did not realize that you were immune to the knowledge about climate that has been found for 25 years now. The quack you are quoting is no different that the paid goons hired by Koch, Exxon, & ALEC, and who are indeed believed by the 40% of Americans that are climate idiots. Congress is happy to listen to liars since that's where their paycheck comes from. But since only 1% of scientists are denying quacks like that guy, why aren't there 99 sane scientists testifying before Congress for each kook that deniers drool over?

"I hope that doesn't mean that he has no credibility..."

That is exactly what it means.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Mar 31, 2017 - 06:43pm PT
I was talking about: Low users OF GHGs should not pay the external costs of High emitters.

But that's EXACTLY what's going to happen, because, as you agreed, the ones you charge are NOT going to be the ones feeling the pain. They ARE going to simply pass those punitive charges along.

And now you have gone off the deep end into absolute Denierism. I did not realize that you were immune to the knowledge about climate that has been found for 25 years now. The quack you are quoting is no different that the paid goons hired by Koch, Exxon, & ALEC, and who are indeed believed by the 40% of Americans that are climate idiots.

Uhh... not quite. The "knowledge" we are talking about is a HIGHLY contentious issue about what the REAL costs of climate changes are.

You have broadened the "denier" epithet to a whole new level to basically assert that anybody who doesn't agree with your assessment of COSTS (which remain entirely vague and unsubstantiated) is a "denier" in the "worst" sense of that epithet.

And for you to call a Princeton physicist a "quack" just because he draws a different conclusion from you on THIS question is beyond the pale.

This is the biggest problem I have with the leftist agenda: When people even so much as QUESTION the party-line assertions, they are immediately labeled "quacks," "idiots," "deniers," and every other name you "feel" at the time.

That's not discussion. That's just descending into name-calling, silencing, party-line browbeating.

Until this moment, we've been keeping it civil, and I've felt like we were having a reasonable discussion that was productively honing the nature of the fine-grained disagreements that can reasonably emerge between sensible people who ARE seeking the same goal.

I could continue to discuss the rest of your points, but I'm suddenly very tired of this. You've just revealed that you intend to CRAM some punitive approach to the problem down everybody's throats and then name-call anybody who resists.

Good luck gaining needed consensus with that approach. I'm out.
monolith

climber
state of being
Mar 31, 2017 - 07:34pm PT
MB cited Happer? Wow.
F

climber
away from the ground
Mar 31, 2017 - 07:46pm PT
Why is it that Ed's posts make sense and find me nodding my head and Mudbolter's make my eyes glaze over and vomit in my mouth a little bit?
jgill

Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
Mar 31, 2017 - 08:38pm PT
Don't put a lot of faith in the predictions of economists. They are far, far more accurate in their assessments of past history than they are in their forecasts.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Mar 31, 2017 - 10:59pm PT
MB1:
"They ARE going to simply pass those punitive charges along."

It is up to you to find a different energy supply or reduction. High electricity charges already exist in much of California, due to straight up state mandates requiring 33 percent renewable energy for 2020, and gearing up to achieve a 50 percent goal in 2030. Yet the population continues to grow, and real estate prices are astronomical, so people deal with it. Furthermore, In California most of the gas turbine peaking plants being built are not owned by the utilities. If their cost and price due to tax on natural gas increases, then they will be less competitive and they will eventually play less of a role to other sources to back up green power. Look at all the costs in the wiki reference https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source
Then add in a RNCF. It changes the calculation of what is the most cost effective electricity source. Of course it takes a long time to build new sources, so the RNCF should be phased in so people have some time to react. The same long timeframe to adapt exists with cap&trade or mandates.


it is you that posted this nonsense:
"your claim that carbon IS an "external cost." At present, no aspect of that connection has been credibly demonstrated."

If you don't believe that CO2 and other GHGs have huge impacts and therefore huge external costs, then you are a denier.

Some of the solutions take decades to take effect. Just like sprawl took decades to implement and continues to surge in the SoCal inland empire, these things could take decades to reverse. When GM first built the Impact electrical car, it was impractical and a huge money loser. Even now ZEVs are not big sellers because oil is too cheap. And it will take many years to change out the existing types of vehicles, as Trump so clearly does not want to happen.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Apr 14, 2017 - 08:08pm PT
Here's what the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists says about Climate Change in the 2017 Doomsday Clock Statement...

The clear need for climate action.

Global efforts to limit climate change have produced mixed results over the last year. The Paris Agreement went into effect in 2016, and countries are taking some actions to bring down emissions of greenhouse gases. There are encouraging signs that global annual emissions were flat this past year, though there is no assurance this heralds a break point. If the global economy has weaned itself from exponentially growing emissions rates, that would indeed be a major accomplishment.
But because carbon dioxide persists in the atmosphere for centuries, net emissions must eventually be put on a trajectory to reach zero if global warming is to be stemmed. The longer it takes to shift toward that trajectory, the greater the warming—and consequences—that current and future generations will face. The true success of the Paris Agreement should be measured against a strict criterion: Do the next steps in its implementation bring about the reductions of carbon dioxide emissions necessary to keep world temperatures from reaching levels that: threaten catastrophic sea level rise; change rainfall patterns and therefore threaten agriculture; increase storm severity; reduce biodiversity; and alter ocean chemistry (among the many negative impacts that unchecked global warming will cause)?
The continued warming of the world measured in 2016 underscores one clear fact: Nothing is fundamentally amiss with the scientific understanding of climate physics. The burning of fossil fuels adds carbon dioxide to the atmosphere; carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, inhibiting the radiation of heat into space. The relationship between increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and increased terrestrial temperature has been researched for decades, and national science academies around the world agree: Human activity is the primary cause of climate change, and unless carbon dioxide emissions are dramatically reduced, global warming will threaten the future of humanity.
In 2016, however, the international community did not take the steps needed to begin the path toward a net zero-carbon-emissions world. The Marrakech Climate Change Conference, for instance, produced little progress beyond the emissions goals pledged under the Paris Accord.
The political situation in the United States is of particular concern. The Trump transition team has put forward candidates for cabinet-level positions (especially at the Environmental Protection Agency and Energy Department) who foreshadow the possibility that the new administration will be openly hostile to progress toward even the most modest efforts to avert catastrophic climate disruption.
Climate change should not be a partisan political issue. The well-established physics of Earth’s carbon cycle is neither liberal nor conservative in character. The planet will continue to warm to dangerous levels so long as carbon dioxide continues to be pumped into the atmosphere—regardless of who is chosen to lead the United States or any other country.
International leaders need to refocus their attention on achieving the additional carbon emission reductions that are needed to capitalize on the promise of the Paris Accord. In the United States, as a very first step, the Trump administration needs to make a clear, unequivocal statement that it accepts climate change, caused by human activity, as a scientific reality. No problem can be solved, unless its existence is recognized.

BTW, it is 2.5 min to midnight for a variety of reasons including Trump as president, N Korea, etc

The board’s decision to move the clock less than a full minute reflects a simple reality: As this statement is issued, Donald Trump has been the US president only a matter of days.
Bushman

climber
The state of quantum flux
Apr 17, 2017 - 06:48am PT
Mutually Assured Destruction

On a day of stormy weather
In a rundown beetle car
On the crowded LA freeways
I hadn't gotten very far
When going west the road sign said
I took an exit wrong again
Then my foot stuck on the throttle
And the car began to spin

Was I upside down or right side up?
I really could not tell
But when the car was righted
I took the exit, just as well
To check my nerves and auto
And if the wheels were still all there
But what I was about to see
Was something straight from hell

I pulled into a gas station
And stepped out of the car
Somewhere west of West Covina
West of my hometown, not too far
I looked west towards Los Angeles
Then heard a loud kaboom
And saw a mighty fireball
'Twas the harbinger of all our doom

A nuclear explosion
Rocked the sunset sky
People screamed and sirens blared
As shock waves ringed the western sky
Cars on the freeway collided
As panic gripped drivers realized
They could not control their senses
When they thought they were about to die

Coldly I stood calculating
And estimating odds to stay alive
About forty miles from ground zero
From that distance I could survive
Unless there was another blast
That un-serendipitously struck nearby
The world then slowed in motion
As time suspended in my minds eye

Some voices wailed grief stricken
For their families stood in harms way
I took in all the mayhem
Had the world gone totally insane?
I drove east towards the desert
The freeways clogged in harsh retreat
My premonition moved me
To go off road and through back streets

I took out my bolt cutters
Gaining access to a sandy wash
The trusty buggy bounced along
I threw away my cards and cash
And guarded all my water
With my sawed off at my knee
And thought about my family
Still visiting in Flagstaff hopefully

The world was now off its rocker
And would never be the same
The evolutionary shift begun
For humanity it seemed
And as birds in massive numbers
Flew ahead of me in the nighttime sky
Like them I would need a reverie
Before, untimely I would die

-bushman
04/16/2016
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Apr 17, 2017 - 03:58pm PT
Putin endorses Pruitt...

http://priceofoil.org/2017/04/03/putin-denies-humans-cause-climate-change-endorses-scott-pruitt/
Jay S

Mountain climber
Silver Gate, Mt
Apr 17, 2017 - 06:48pm PT
Climate change reroutes a Yukon river
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/17/science/climate-change-glacier-yukon-river.html?_r=0
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Apr 19, 2017 - 02:40pm PT
Age of Consequences is a great documentary film. That short trailer doesn't really give you a sense for how well organized and comprehensive the film is.

More info here...

http://theageofconsequences.com
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Apr 19, 2017 - 04:14pm PT
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/rapid-climate-changes-turn-north-woods-into-moose-graveyard/

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/moose-are-dying-in-horrible-ways-due-to-climate-change

tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Apr 19, 2017 - 04:50pm PT
climate change
puts moose on danger

the guy in the photo ^^^ is a wildlife biologist who is trying to help moose. He is conducting research to determine what is killing off moose in the Grand Portage Band of Lake Superior Chippewa area.
NutAgain!

Trad climber
South Pasadena, CA
Apr 20, 2017 - 08:54am PT
Interesting observations in this article:
http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2017/04/explaining_science_won_t_fix_information_illiteracy.html


A key point is this: the political polarization we see in scientific issues like global warming is not just caused by stupid people not getting it. Even people who can articulate the details of a scientific consensus, thus demonstrating that they are not just plain stupid and unable to grasp the concepts, even these people are subject to the "liberal"/"conservative" political polarization of viewpoints.

The article makes great observations, but I don't think it goes far enough to explore the "why" of it. I think they should explore the dance between the emotional and intellectual parts of our minds, and explore what emotional needs are being met by political alignment, which usurps people's ability to make decisions based on facts and reason.


My conclusion is that people's fear of not belonging to a tribe (and fear of invading tribes) drives them more than the fear poisoned air and water, the fear of economic misfortune, the fear of losing democracy and large-scale organized civilization. Returning to the stone age with small tribes would be physically uncomfortable for most people accustomed to soft chairs and smart phones, but it would be psychologically more comfortable for them. People crave simplicity, certainty, identity, fellowship. All of the other things that seem like they should be more important for our society, these all take a back seat when they are juxtaposed with the basic individual human cravings of simplicity, certainty, identity, fellowship.
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Apr 21, 2017 - 02:07am PT
Racing To The Precipice: Prof Noam Chomsky (March 2017)

[Click to View YouTube Video]
capseeboy

Social climber
portland, oregon
Apr 21, 2017 - 10:18am PT
People don't see their own personal consumer behavior as part of the problem. "It's those people doing it!", not me.

Stooopid Americans.
Craig Fry

Trad climber
So Cal.
Apr 21, 2017 - 11:13am PT
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Apr 21, 2017 - 01:37pm PT
"The Death of Expertise"

[Click to View YouTube Video]
NutAgain!

Trad climber
South Pasadena, CA
Apr 21, 2017 - 01:56pm PT
Craig, to be fair, that graph shows a clearly increasing trend but nothing in that graph pins the causation on humans. It could be part of some century-long oscillation based on phenomena we don't understand yet. I think it is more damning to look over very long time cycles (tens or hundreds of thousands of years) and then look at the differences that have happened since the industrial revolution. That is so striking that it quickly throws into doubt that any process independent of humans could have caused it.
Craig Fry

Trad climber
So Cal.
Apr 21, 2017 - 02:16pm PT
The graph speaks for itself

It shows the concentration of CO2 from 1958 to 2017
That's all

We all know where the CO2 came from, and we all know that the CO2 concentration has varied over time.
It may have changed before on a similar time scale, but when it did it was because of some cataclysmic volcanic activity,
it has never changed this quickly since human life has inhabited earth

every time it did reach >400 ppm, it caused the climate to be hotter than it was at 310 ppm
NutAgain!

Trad climber
South Pasadena, CA
Apr 21, 2017 - 03:01pm PT
The only thing that graph speaks to me is that carbon content has a seasonal cycle within each year and a clearly increasing trend over the last few decades.

If your intent is to make clear that human activity is a cause of climate change, and that we need to change our behavior to reverse the alarming trend.... Well in that case, your choice of timescale in the graph can backfire because this slice of data leaves huge room for doubt that natural cycles bigger than humans are the cause. This creates the space for disingenuous people to spin the argument in a misleading direction, and it empowers people who are still somehow sitting on the fence to keep ignoring the problem. A much longer timescale of the same graph would be much more compelling to an analytical mind.

And if you are trying to convince a mind not receptive to analytical arguments, why bother showing the graph?

Edit: I suppose you might be side-stepping the issue of human causality and just focusing on the fact that the higher values are correlated with lots of things humans will not find desirable, which presumably would motivate human interventions? But if the belief in human causation is not affirmed, then people will feel discouraged that human activity can be impactful to reverse the trend ostensibly caused by global non-human processes.

monolith

climber
state of being
Apr 21, 2017 - 03:13pm PT
NutsAgain, you really need to dig deeper. Carbon isotope ratios show man is responsible. Get in there and learn for yourself instead of whining about a post that didn't have everything you wanted to see.
jgill

Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
Apr 29, 2017 - 09:12pm PT
Too much uncertainty about spotty world efforts to curb CC at a time when the American middle class is shrinking. Better perhaps to plan on ways to adapt.
monolith

climber
state of being
Apr 29, 2017 - 09:33pm PT
Fighting CC has little to do with shrinking the middle class, since the fight reduces annual growth by only .06 percent of gdp.

So we’re talking annual growth of, say, 2.24 percent rather than 2.30 percent to save billions and billions of people from needless suffering for decades if not centuries.

https://thinkprogress.org/the-ny-times-promised-to-fact-check-their-new-climate-denier-columnist-they-lied-72ad9bdf6019
Binks

climber
Uranus
Apr 29, 2017 - 10:13pm PT
Just let the American Middle class die. What are they good for anyway ;)
jgill

Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
Apr 29, 2017 - 10:19pm PT
Fighting CC has little to do with shrinking the middle class, since the fight reduces annual growth by only .06 percent of gdp

A statistic that doesn't make a dent in the concerns of those who are being downsized. When you are anticipating losing your home to foreclosure you are not going to be very concerned about climate change. It's the optics. And don't forget, economics is the Dismal Science.
monolith

climber
state of being
Apr 30, 2017 - 07:10am PT
Jobs in renewable energy are an opportunity for the middle class. Already there are more jobs in renewable energy then in the coal industry. Of course, Trump wants to reverse that and let China and Germany lead the way.

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2017/03/31/trump-wrong-about-climate-change-and-jobs-too
jgill

Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
Apr 30, 2017 - 04:33pm PT
^^^ "But the truth is, barring deployment of a radical geoengineering scheme that quickly cools the planet, we have already heated up the Earth's atmosphere enough to guarantee that the seas are going to rise – and they are going to keep rising for a long time."

Get to planning seaside folks. Better put those solar panels on high rises.
jgill

Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
May 6, 2017 - 03:01pm PT
Oh no, not the jet stream again!

My daughter, who lives in Brooklyn, told me yesterday their brownstone may be enhanced to seashore property. Some will suffer, others will profit!
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
May 6, 2017 - 10:20pm PT
"Some will suffer, others will profit! "

that's what is often referred to as a TAKING.

However there will be a lot more suffer than profit, obviously.
And the amount of suffer is not fixed. So the amount of adaptation is not fixed. Obviously. The more GHGs, the more suffering.
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Jun 21, 2017 - 06:48am PT
Coal mines - climate record, fossils, 45 foot Titanoboa

http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/coal/2012/11/coal_mine_fossils_paleontology_shows_us_past_climate_change.html
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Jun 22, 2017 - 10:44pm PT
morons gonna keep moroning

"No, most likely the primary control knob is the ocean waters and this environment that we live in."

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/19/energy-sec-rick-perry-says-co2-is-not-the-main-driver-of-climate-change.html
Contractor

Boulder climber
CA
Jun 27, 2017 - 06:15am PT
Asked whether CO2 emissions are primarily responsible for climate change, Perry told CNBC's "Squawk Box": "No, most likely the primary control knob is the ocean waters and this environment that we live in."

And the second most likely cause is...uh, well it's...um, I had it right here...it's because of...uh...I can't seem to recall...oops...
kunlun_shan

Mountain climber
SF, CA
Jun 27, 2017 - 10:47am PT
Anyone not concerned is most likely NOT a commercial fisherman in the Pacific NW hauling in loads of pyrosomes. Even worse than marauding orca pods stealing the catch.


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/tropical-sea-creatures-blooming-bc-1.4164883

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/hordes-sea-pickles-are-clogging-west-coast-180963811/
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Jun 29, 2017 - 06:10pm PT
Many "skeptics" think we can't justify policy to limit GHGs because they think we can't calculate the impacts of climate change exactly, and they are focused only on short term costs of changing policy (such as a GHG tax).

Of course we can, we can estimate all sorts of things.

Just one example out of countless:
What is the impact of using and needing 5% more air conditioning?

more
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/06/29/534896130/mapping-the-potential-economic-effects-of-climate-change

Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Jun 29, 2017 - 06:14pm PT
For those who complain about relatively minor incentives for renewables,
here's one you should be screaming about.

Clean coal in just one demo plant - $7.5 billion up in smoke.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608191/clean-coals-flagship-project-has-failed/
Lorenzo

Trad climber
Portland Oregon
Jun 29, 2017 - 10:12pm PT
The article doesn't even mention that burning coal concentrates uranium and thorium about 100 times and there is no safe method being used to dispose of the radioactive waste, which is greater than nuclear plants produce.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coal-ash-is-more-radioactive-than-nuclear-waste/
SteveW

Trad climber
The state of confusion
Jul 3, 2017 - 01:06pm PT

Here's a slide show that shows what major cities in the U.S. will look like under water in 2100. . .

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/disturbing-before-and-after-photos-show-what-major-us-cities-could-look-like-in-the-year-2100/ss-BBDm23I?li=BBnb7Kz#image=34
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jul 3, 2017 - 07:11pm PT
Same old drama. Deniers are scum. Meanwhile, 1600 new coal-fired power plants are in the pipeline. Yawn.
jgill

Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
Jul 3, 2017 - 09:22pm PT
Waterworld = webbed feet?
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jul 3, 2017 - 10:28pm PT
That's right Gill. Adapt or die whining for a carbon tax and government salvation from an imaginary crisis to be.

Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Jul 4, 2017 - 07:04am PT
Here's a slide show that shows what major cities in the U.S. will look like under water in 2100. . .


Yet property right on the coast is selling for a premium, often several times more than property inland just right across the street.

The Smart Money isn't buying into whatever it is you think you're seeing.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jul 4, 2017 - 08:39am PT
wow Chaz, I bet you made a bundle following the "Smart Money" into the housing bubble which burst in 2006!

way to go!
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Jul 4, 2017 - 11:43am PT

Yet property right on the coast is selling for a premium, often several times more than property inland just right across the street.

The Smart Money isn't buying into whatever it is you think you're seeing.

Who cares as long as Uncle Sam has your back...

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/subsidizing-disaster/



About one-third of Americans—more than 100 million people—now live in low-lying coastal regions. Analysis by the Risky Business Project forecasts that between $48.2 billion and $68.7 billion worth of existing coastal property in the Southeast alone will be below sea level by 2050. Parts of Louisiana are expected to be at least 4.3 feet below sea level by the end of the century.

It may seem odd for people to be moving into these vulnerable areas. But one major explanation for this trend is simple: government is paying for it.

This is because the NFIP charges rates so far below the levels that actuaries would recommend—in some areas, only 45 percent of the full level of risk—that private companies cannot compete.

State governments have also gotten in on the game. Every Gulf Coast state operates some form of state-backed insurance program for wind; Florida and Louisiana have programs to insure against other risks as well
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Jul 4, 2017 - 11:49am PT
Although even with tax payers getting hosed by having to subsidize coastal owners who live in denial of sea level rise, I think coastal housing prices will collapse in some areas.

When you have a property in south Florida that has a couple of feet of flooding every few years or so, people aren't going to want to live there even if Uncle Sam is picking up the tab.

At some point, mortgage companies will stop offering 30-year mortgages. Although I presume politicians will put tax payers on the hook for that one also.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 4, 2017 - 12:26pm PT
About one-third of Americans—more than 100 million people—now live in low-lying coastal regions.

Hmmm... these regions are dominated by liberals. Hmmm....
FRUMY

Trad climber
Bishop,CA
Jul 4, 2017 - 01:00pm PT
No more than any other part of the country.




Why aren't more people worried? cause they are STUPID!
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 4, 2017 - 04:10pm PT
No more than any other part of the country.

Not true, and well-known to be not true. Just look at the last presidential election breakdown by county. The blue regions are mostly the coastlines.

Well-known, and you can Google it in seconds.

Here's one, since you can't be bothered:

http://brilliantmaps.com/2016-county-election-map/

Look at where the liberals are concentrated, you know, the "sea is rising" folks.

Hmmmm....

Edit: Remember that you guys won the popular vote with just those narrow strips of real estate. So, yeah, I'd say that you've got a pretty dense liberal demographic on the coastlines.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Jul 4, 2017 - 10:15pm PT
The west coast elevation rises pretty quickly so that is not near the worry that the Atlantic and Gulf are. The Gulf of Mexico states are mostly republican.

The Atlantic seaboard certainly has a lot of democrats.

It would be interesting to know the makeup of who is buying and selling in low lying areas. I would expect there are more Hillary voters who are quietly moving to higher ground than Trump voters.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Jul 7, 2017 - 12:33pm PT
A tour of the German Climate Computing Center in Hamburg that Angela Merkel’s husband, Joachim Sauer, arranged for Melania, Ivanka and other G20 spouses had to be cancelled because anti-capitalist protestors have surrounded their hotel.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/g20-summit-angela-merkels-husband-name-takes-ivanka-trump-other-spouses-climate-change-centre-tour-a7829391.html

https://www.dkrz.de/dkrz-en

Wow...the irony...the irony ;(
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 10, 2017 - 04:35pm PT
Another totally-legit answer to the OP question is: Because mammals, particularly humans, aren't even a hiccup on the cosmic time scale. Evolve or die. The planet doesn't care about us, nor should it. The sooner we're gone, the sooner other species can inhabit the niches we leave behind.

Oh, WE don't LIKE that? Tough. One way or another, our time is limited, and we're doomed by nature, as are ALL species. So, quit taking such a species-centric perspective!

It's ALL good!!!
monolith

climber
state of being
Jul 10, 2017 - 04:43pm PT
Yeah, but this species is speeding up the process immensely, and this species is smart enough to do something about it.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Jul 10, 2017 - 05:02pm PT
Yeah, but this species is speeding up the process immensely, and this species is smart enough to do something about it.

I rather suspect not.
jgill

Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
Jul 10, 2017 - 05:32pm PT
Buy a bicycle and water wings. Be positive.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Jul 10, 2017 - 09:31pm PT
That NYMagazine article The Uninhabitable Earth by David Wallace-Wells posted ^^^ while entertaining to read is a bit over the top. It isn't clear what Wallace-Wells' credentials are for writing such an article about worst-case scenario climate change projections. These articles tend to feed the beasts of climate change denial because they are full of hyperbole and inaccurate statements and easily discredited.

Here's a rebuttal written by Andrew Freedman that points out many of Wallace-Wells' inaccuracies. Freedman is the former Senior Science writer for Climate Central. He has an MS degree in Climate & Society from Columbia Univ. Not a Climate Scientist but at least he has some technical knowledge and understanding of the issues.
http://mashable.com/2017/07/10/new-york-mag-climate-story-inaccurate-doomsday-scenario/#h8.XwCJJHPqP
monolith

climber
state of being
Jul 10, 2017 - 09:39pm PT
Michel Mann also criticised the article.

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2017/07/10/fear-wont-save-us-putting-check-climate-doom
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 10, 2017 - 10:31pm PT
this species is smart enough to do something about it

Apparently not.

And who cares anyway? Us? Well, we're gonna be gone soon anyway.

This "species preference" bit is nonsensical. We're nothing, and we'll morph into nothing.

We had our little moment in the sun, and it's soon to be over.

Other things are on the way.

And then there's entropy.

Big deal.
Bushman

climber
The state of quantum flux
Jul 12, 2017 - 08:17am PT
A massive iceberg the size of Delaware has broken free from Antarctica and is floating in the sea.

Earlier today, scientists announced that the 6,000-square-kilometer iceberg had come loose, after satellites detected it had calved off the Larsen C ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula.

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/07/12/536818782/massive-iceberg-breaks-free-in-antarctica
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 12, 2017 - 08:21am PT
Tow it here to SoCal, I need to water my lawn!
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Jul 12, 2017 - 10:11am PT
"We had our little moment in the sun, and it's soon to be over."

Typical mad denialist troll crap.
If you believed it, you'd be fine with ending your own existence.
dirtbag

climber
Jul 12, 2017 - 10:13am PT
It's just self centered mental masturbation from the "I got mine" crowd.
skcreidc

Social climber
SD, CA
Jul 12, 2017 - 10:16am PT
Iceberg nearly twice the size of Rhode Island breaks off Antarctica

[Click to View YouTube Video]

It's OK, you don't have to get it. Suffice it to say there is sarcasm involved.
clam dip

Trad climber
ca
Jul 20, 2017 - 04:24pm PT
It is no surprise that "leave no trace" should extend to the bedroom. Good luck arguing that to the ticking biological clock you have chosen to spend your life with!!
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Jul 20, 2017 - 04:59pm PT
NASA -
Sea Ice Extent Sinks to Record Lows at Both Poles

Arctic sea ice appears to have reached on March 7 a record low wintertime maximum extent, according to scientists at NASA and the NASA-supported National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado. And on the opposite side of the planet, on March 3 sea ice around Antarctica hit its lowest extent ever recorded by satellites at the end of summer in the Southern Hemisphere, a surprising turn of events after decades of moderate sea ice expansion.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2017/sea-ice-extent-sinks-to-record-lows-at-both-poles

donini

Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
Jul 20, 2017 - 05:48pm PT
Humans have had a tremendous influence, almost all negative, on the natural world. Thankfully, that influence is transient and will disappear when we have exited the stage....hopefully sooner rather than later. The earth, 4.5 billion years old, will heal itself in a short time...geologically speaking.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jul 20, 2017 - 06:39pm PT
Born from elements blown off by super nova's, bombarded by debris largest enough to cast off the moon, hellishly hot for a billion years, totally frozen over for hundreds of million of years, up to 90% of species suddenly made extinct by asteroid impacts, huge shield volcanoes and perhaps a few gamma ray burst events. All this and your worried for Earth enough to wish for your species extinction because of minor release of trace atmospheric gases and small scale human terraforming? You guys live in a bubble of paranoia unable to appreciate cosmic scale. SAD.
donini

Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
Jul 20, 2017 - 06:58pm PT
Wishing has as much of an effect on outcomes as praying....zero. The extinction of my species is inevitable. The earth has been here for 4.5 billion years and it is estimated to have about that amount of time remaining. Species will come and go....the dinosaurs 160,000,000 year reign will be hard to beat.
Who knows what life forms will follow us.....hopefully they will be better stewards.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jul 20, 2017 - 07:09pm PT
You guys live in a bubble of paranoia unable to appreciate cosmic scale. SAD.

you should tweet this... be right in line with the level of your understanding...
limpingcrab

Trad climber
the middle of CA
Jul 20, 2017 - 07:15pm PT
On the bright side, after every great mass extinction comes massive speciation.

All those new species in the future will thank us for the freed up niches :)
tooth

Trad climber
B.C.
Jul 20, 2017 - 07:33pm PT
What happened to the ozone hole and why aren't we all dead from that? I was told that in the 90s. If we didn't quit using spray cans and fridges with chemicals that make the ozone hole we were gone in 5 years.

Why isn't that issue added to the climate change narrative? Or is it no longer a threat?
ontheedgeandscaredtodeath

Social climber
SLO, Ca
Jul 20, 2017 - 07:47pm PT
Check out Title VI of the CAA if you are interested in ozone holes. Or you could just post ignorant sh#t on the internet.
tooth

Trad climber
B.C.
Jul 20, 2017 - 08:29pm PT
If I wasn't ignorant about it I would not have asked questions. Thanks for being so nice about it.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jul 20, 2017 - 08:45pm PT
What happened to the ozone hole and why aren't we all dead from that? I was told that in the 90s. If we didn't quit using spray cans and fridges with chemicals that make the ozone hole we were gone in 5 years.


we quit doing that stuff and stablized the ozone...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Protocol
ontheedgeandscaredtodeath

Social climber
SLO, Ca
Jul 24, 2017 - 07:28am PT
Tooth, I apologize for being snippy.
kunlun_shan

Mountain climber
SF, CA
Jul 24, 2017 - 05:39pm PT
Re. http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans-annotated.html

Thank you for posting that, Malemute! Everyone on this forum should read it.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 24, 2017 - 06:03pm PT
Everyone on this forum should read it.

But not everyone should believe it. When I read lines like "the science says," I literally laugh out loud.

The list of failed predictions regarding climate change is already epic. "The science says:" it just doesn't know.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Jul 24, 2017 - 08:32pm PT
Failed predictions like the ice caps melting...?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jul 24, 2017 - 10:04pm PT
The list of failed predictions regarding climate change is already epic.

however, the initial analysis by Arrhenius in 1896 turns out to be correct...
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Jul 25, 2017 - 10:50am PT
mb1: why do you hate the environment?
guyman

Social climber
Moorpark, CA.
Jul 25, 2017 - 10:52am PT
mb1: why do you hate the environment?

Dumb ass question splatter, don't ya think?

I have one for you.

When did you stop beating little kids?

c wilmot

climber
Jul 25, 2017 - 10:57am PT
When did you stop beating little kids?

Spare the rod spoil the child....


Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Jul 25, 2017 - 07:16pm PT
The climate is changing very close to the consensus predictions of science. Only the blind and biased continue to beat the drum of denial. Even most of the "skeptical" scientists who used to deny have wised up. However the quack denier alt political gibberish trumpeter fossil fuel funded institutions continue their propaganda campaign.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-06-15/97-percent-consensus-on-climate-change-it-s-complicated

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2016/jan/07/era-of-climate-science-denial-is-not-over-study-finds

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/09/16/deniers-club-meet-the-people-clouding-the-climate-change-debate/?utm_term=.abee780f2f56

rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Jul 25, 2017 - 07:54pm PT
Maybe Exxon -Mobil will re-imburse all the patriots that own prime real estate along the coast...?
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jul 29, 2017 - 05:17am PT
If you speak in an echo chamber, does it make a difference?
monolith

climber
state of being
Jul 29, 2017 - 06:24am PT
Is a fact filled chamber an echo chamber?
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Aug 3, 2017 - 11:23pm PT
[Click to View YouTube Video]
Captain...or Skully

climber
Boise, ID
Aug 8, 2017 - 07:38am PT
You know we're all gonna die, right?
We're gonna drown in irony.
Moof

Big Wall climber
Orygun
Aug 8, 2017 - 10:41am PT
We are soloing on an FA with only limited models to give us a vague topo.

The sad reality is that the US needs to lead on this, but is no going the other way. We are the worst offenders per capita. Our political system has been hijacked by big money, and no longer works towards any sort of "greater good".

As such I see very little path for the world to avoid some of the worse projected outcomes. The only long-shot hope I see at the moment is the shifting tide of renewable's costs. People will flock to whatever is cheapest. Despite subsidies, coal and oil are gradually losing that battle while wind, solar, and battery systems are no longer quaint science projects.

My biggest fear is that we will trigger an ocean die off as warming seas stop being able to hold adequate oxygen. A dead ocean kills the rest of the planet, as has been seen in the fossil records for most of the mass extinctions.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Aug 8, 2017 - 03:33pm PT
MB2 said
But not everyone should believe it. When I read lines like "the science says," I literally laugh out loud.

The list of failed predictions regarding climate change is already epic. "The science says:" it just doesn't know.
What a tool (and fool (and churl))!
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Aug 8, 2017 - 04:02pm PT
I make my living designing risk assessment software. Risk can be reduced to a simple equation; the likelihood of risk times the consequence of risk. It's not hard for me to see that the likelihood of this particular risk is high. The consequence is astronomical. So, that means we have high times astronomical risk associated with climate change.

You climate deniers just have to do the math a little better. And also, you should specify what part of climate change that you don't believe in; the likelihood side or the consequence side or both are all acceptable answers. That all of the world's climate scientists are in collusion somehow or that it must be wrong if you on the left believe it or that science itself is a political tool of the left (for MB2, in particular), are not acceptable answers.

The NY Times piece was mostly about the consequence side, and it is scary.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Aug 8, 2017 - 04:42pm PT
"The list of failed predictions..."

is a phrase that denialists have been repeating to themselves as a mantra all across the alt faux non-science kookoosphere.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Aug 8, 2017 - 05:02pm PT
"That all the world's climate scientists are in collusion"

The old 97% b.s. propaganda. It's way more than 3% that don't ascribe to the manmade disaster meme.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Aug 8, 2017 - 05:07pm PT
The scientific consensus was 97% averaged over papers from the last 20 years.
If you look at just a more recent period such as the latest 5 years, the consensus would be even higher than going back over 20 years.

https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/

http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=2899333&msg=2915137#msg2915137

as I posted Dec 16 2016
monolith

climber
state of being
Aug 8, 2017 - 09:17pm PT
Yep, public talk about some desperate GW options proves all those contrails of the past were secret government operations to sicken the population and make their minds easy to control.
monolith

climber
state of being
Aug 8, 2017 - 09:22pm PT
And there it is. OMG!
monolith

climber
state of being
Aug 8, 2017 - 09:28pm PT
Hope your ok, NWO. Are you having another episode?
monolith

climber
state of being
Aug 8, 2017 - 09:34pm PT
I'd like to leave you alone, but I've got those checks coming in.
monolith

climber
state of being
Aug 8, 2017 - 09:47pm PT
Hum, I may have consult with the boss. This seems like a difficult case.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 9, 2017 - 08:19am PT

If you ask me, we are putting "chemicals" into the atmosphere and changing the environment, but nothing to do with the wacky "chemtrails" conspiracy theory. (I think most of the images in my "Photo file" are about climbing, with a few other things mixed in... if that is the criteria for posting here).

Fat Dad

Trad climber
Los Angeles, CA
Aug 9, 2017 - 09:51am PT
Orrrr, was Lois banned because everything she said went against the grain of the Supertopo echo chamber?
What a rebel. Quite a bit of irony with the Lois observation.
monolith

climber
state of being
Aug 9, 2017 - 10:05am PT
In one sentence you say they're "putting "chemicals" into the atmosphere and changing the environment",
yet in the same sentence you say it has "nothing to do with the wacky "chemtrails" conspiracy theory".

You do know that Ed was referring to CO2 from fossil fuel combustion, don't you?
monolith

climber
state of being
Aug 9, 2017 - 10:17am PT
Again, try to focus. The article does not say we are spraying now to combat climate change.

There is some research going on and it does not validate your wild lizard people, illuminati, conspiracy theories.
monolith

climber
state of being
Aug 9, 2017 - 10:32am PT
Read the caption, dumbass.

An aircraft tries to seed clouds in Thailand in 2007. Any global dimming effort would require larger aircraft, flying higher in the atmosphere

We seed clouds for rain production.

Even if it was for GW research, it's not a global effort, which is what would be required.
monolith

climber
state of being
Aug 9, 2017 - 10:44am PT
Yes, it is being considered by some scientists.

So what?
healyje

Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
Aug 9, 2017 - 11:23am PT
The problem with all such geoengineering schemes and also the problem with the chemtrails nonsense is: scale. Specifically the infrastructure support necessary to scale any such effort to the point where it could be effective to any degree at all let alone be marginally effective.

To even get on the radar of effectiveness you'd need a worldwide infrastructure supporting the effort that would likely consume 5-10% of the combined wealth of all the world's industrialized societies and require decades of infrastructure work to support it.

As it is it's a challenge to predictably supply jet fuel to the all the world's major airports let alone add another side-by-side Wx modification supply chain.

Isn't happening and is never going to happen.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Aug 9, 2017 - 11:39am PT
Any bets on whether or not the Trump Admin will allow the Global Climate Report to officially surface?
monolith

climber
state of being
Aug 9, 2017 - 11:40am PT
Good question. He will not. He can't even water it down as it's already out there.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Aug 9, 2017 - 11:49am PT
Airplanes cause far more global warming than any minor effect of their temporary water vapor contrails.
The CO2 exhaust into the stratosphere is very long lived, and it is estimated that this CO2 causes 2-3 times as much greenhouse effect as CO2 at ground level.
The H2O exhaust condensate can have a brief local reflective effect of decreasing the difference between day and night temperatures. (Decreasing daytime temperature and increasing night-time temperature. Also the water is a follower GHG itself. But overall this water vapor effect on average climate is small, quite temporary and quickly disappears into the general water/atmosphere general cycle.

as I posted on Mar 10, http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=2899333&msg=2955450#msg2955450

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contrail

Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Aug 9, 2017 - 11:55am PT
That Atlantic story is in print as well as video.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/09/how-america-lost-its-mind/534231/
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Aug 9, 2017 - 02:48pm PT
The problem with all such geoengineering schemes and also the problem with the chemtrails nonsense is: scale. Specifically the infrastructure support necessary to scale any such effort to the point where it could be effective to any degree at all let alone be marginally effective.

Reducing the amount of sunlight that makes it to the earth's surface perhaps will never be feasible. Although I wouldn't automatically rule it out.

But there are other serious concerns with this approach. The polar regions are warming faster than the tropics. If you cut back the amount of sunlight that hits the earth, but do a better job of trapping that heat (because of C02 and other gasses), there is less temperature difference between the tropics and the polar regions. (The reduction in sunlight affects the tropics more than the polar regions. The increase in heat trapping gasses affects the polar region more than the tropics).

The temperature difference between the tropics and the polar regions is a big driver of the weather. So even if the overall temperature of the planet is held steady, there will still be large changes in weather patterns (i.e., climate change).

So this approach might reduce the total amount of harm, but it is not a fix for "climate change".
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Aug 22, 2017 - 02:13pm PT
Trump golf course application for massive sea wall - justification is climate change.
http://time.com/4345367/donald-trump-climate-change-golf-course/

"But the environmental-impact statement cited in the Trump Hotel's application relies on facts about global warming presented by governmental scientists. The statement cites an Irish study that says erosion will continue at a steady rate through 2050. “If the predictions of an increase in sea level rise as a result of global warming prove correct, however, it is likely that there will be a corresponding increase in coastal erosion rates not just in Doughmore Bay but around much of the coastline of Ireland," the statement reads."

as the Washington post put it:
"Donald Trump calls global warming a hoax, until it threatens his golf course"
"Former congressman Bob Inglis, a Republican from South Carolina who supports conservative efforts to mitigate global warming, told Politico that the dissonance between Trump’s public stance and his business practice is “diabolical.”
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Aug 24, 2017 - 06:50pm PT
35 inches of rain forecasted for Texas.


Just thought I would let that settle in.
paganmonkeyboy

climber
mars...it's near nevada...
Aug 28, 2017 - 09:26pm PT
Way past 30 inches of rain now - talking about it doubling as it heads outer and back in again too...

Think there's any chance of a class action against Exxon ?
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Aug 29, 2017 - 11:13am PT
Some lawsuits in process:

Cities, States and Kids Sue to Stop Climate Change
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/07/05/__trashed/?utm_term=.ab35f97f4a2c

https://whowhatwhy.org/2017/08/29/cities-states-kids-sue-stop-climate-change/

Imperial Beach and two Northern California counties have filed lawsuits against 37 oil and coal companies for damages associated with climate change. http://www.kpbs.org/news/2017/jul/19/imperial-beach-two-counties-sue-oil-and-coal-compa/

http://www.npr.org/2017/08/12/542998629/calif-communities-impacted-by-rising-seas-file-climate-suit?ft=nprml
Cragar

climber
MSLA - MT
Aug 29, 2017 - 11:44am PT
The CO2 exhaust into the stratosphere is very long lived, and it is estimated that this CO2 causes 2-3 times as much greenhouse effect as CO2 at ground level.

^^^The pink elephant in the stadium^^^

Stoopid Americans believe it is their right to travel regardless of the actual cost to others or their environment. It is also inline with buying everything from Amazon to save $$$ while that little box of savings gets shipped by air... The above won't change and Americans do not care.
spectreman

Trad climber
Aug 29, 2017 - 12:01pm PT
Yeah, sue the oil companies, what a cop out. It surely doesn't have anything to do with all of us consumers who use the oil for just about every aspect of our lives.
Bushman

climber
The state of quantum flux
Aug 29, 2017 - 12:21pm PT
Oil is the drug, and the oil companies are business people. As long as we keep paying for it they'll keep drilling, refining, and supplying it to us. We are killing life on this planet with every flick of the switch and turn of the key. We are all guilty.
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Aug 30, 2017 - 07:13am PT
It does seem like something needs to be done, but maybe the most cost effective way to deal with climate change would be to dig giant trenches so that flood water can drain out more quickly, or do whatever they do in the Netherlands to stop flooding?

Remember there's nothing that can be done about China, Russia, India, and other countries emitting huge amounts of CO2, so the best thing seems to be to try to adapt. (I was surprised to see that China emits 30% of CO2--we're still much higher per capita, but nature doesn't care about per capita.)

Oh and I see that Canada emits just about the same amount of CO2 per capita as the US. It's very slightly lower, but not significant, and if you adjust for rural/urban mix, my guess Canada may be substantially higher.
skcreidc

Social climber
SD, CA
Aug 30, 2017 - 07:19am PT
That's an interesting data set Malemute. How about per capita methane (and heavier) gas release? I wonder if that data is available. Might have to cut Alaska some slack since they should be getting a bump from melting permafrost.
the Fet

climber
Tu-Tok-A-Nu-La
Aug 30, 2017 - 11:56am PT
The only thing you can do about China, Russia, etc. is to lead by example and enter treaties where we keep up our part.

The most cost effective way to deal with climate change in the long term is to reduce emissions. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. However there may be after the fact things like carbon sequestration that are economically and politically feasible.

I don't think we should have drastic reductions in fossil fuels if it comes at a big economic cost. That wouldn't fly politically anyway. But we should be doing everything we can to lower our emissions without really negatively impacting the overall economy. Such as investing in renewable energy, requiring better mpg in new vehicles, better energy efficiency in new buildings, etc. Many of these things will make us more competitive in the global economy anyway. The problem with that is it does often impact the bottom line of oil companies who make a ton of money off the status quo so they are using very underhanded tactics to sow doubt that there really is a problem and that fossil fuel emissions are a big part of it.

The climate is an incredibly complex system with a lot of factors we don't fully understand. But just the facts that atmospheric CO2 has jumped 40% higher than it's been for at least a half a million years and that coincides with humans emitting CO2 and temperatures rising more rapidly than natural factors would likely cause shows it's VERY likely fossil fuels are contributing to climate change and are perhaps the biggest factor in it. It just makes economic sense to deal with it now instead of pretending there's not a problem and having much more severe economic and other impacts later.
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Aug 30, 2017 - 01:41pm PT
"maybe the most cost effective way to deal with climate change would be to dig giant trenches so that flood water can drain out more quickly, or do whatever they do in the Netherlands to stop flooding?"


Do you understand the concept of "sea level"?

Not especially well, no.
That's why I said we should consider doing what they do in NL.
For anyone who's interested in learning anything and not just making snarky comments, check out https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/06/15/world/europe/climate-change-rotterdam.html

although I've seen similar articles in the past few years

the Fet

climber
Tu-Tok-A-Nu-La
Aug 30, 2017 - 02:16pm PT
Pay now, or pay a helluva lot more later. In lives, in destruction.

How much do you pay now vs. later?

Sea level is projected to rise 1-4 feet by 2100. That's a 400% range. Do you weigh today's economic impact against 1 foot or 4 feet? Politically we'd be lucky to consider 1 foot.

Also what do you consider drastic. I went from a vehicle in the 90s that got about 20 mpg to one that gets 45 mpg today. A 125% improvement which is great, but I wouldn't call it a drastic impact to me because I can still go where I want.

We are working towards solar panels and electric cars with a huge reduction in lifetime emissions. But we'll have to use existing energy sources until we get there, otherwise there could be a big economic collapse which would also cost many human lives (although the natural world would be better for it).
AidanPunts

Sport climber
Victoria, BC
Aug 30, 2017 - 04:29pm PT
For anyone really interested, Learning to Die in the Anthropocene is a really cool book about Climate Change. Interestingly, the book argues that we've already missed the chance to save our civilization, and presents a well sourced and disturbingly convincing case. Basically there's two scenarios ahead of us.

#1 We do exactly what we're doing now. Gradually altering infrastructure at a rate far too slow to stop the effects of climate change, and signing essentially meaningless longterm agreements. The effects of climate change will come since we're clearly not doing enough to change its course, water levels will rise significantly, which will cause a global refugee crisis on a scale we cannot even really imagine. There is not enough infrastructure to provide for the number of people displaced from their homes and there will be global famine, and rioting as people fight to save themselves and their families. Global civilization will collapse and millions if not billions of people will die. Followed by the inevitable result of a runaway greenhouse effect which is demonstrated perfectly by our celestial neighbour Venus. As the carbon dioxide cooks from the arctic ice sheets the heat from the sun will prompt even further evaporation of water creating even more greenhouse effect. This will continue in this cycle until the atmosphere begins cooking the carbon dioxide out of the very rocks themselves and shortly thereafter we'll be left with a planet of hydrosulfuric acid rain, and an atmosphere hot enough to melt lead.

I had always thought that this just meant that we needed to completely shift to a carbon negative society and we could fix it but as people opposed to these measures are ready to point out its not that simple.

#2
The world collectively goes carbon negative averting the climate disaster and ensuring the survival of the planet. However, the costs to switching the entirety of the planet's infrastructure from Hydrocarbons to renewables on a dime would trigger a global economic collapse that would make the great depression seem like child's play. The world economy cannot sustain such a massive shift in infrastructure, and like in scenario #1. People will starve, unable to provide for their families, social unrest will explode into massive riots, and likely again, the collapse of global civilization as we know it.

Either way we're f*#ked.
Jon Beck

Trad climber
Oceanside
Aug 30, 2017 - 04:38pm PT
good opportunity to thank everyone who helped elect a climate denier president. You have blood on your hands.
Lennox

climber
just southwest of the center of the universe
Aug 31, 2017 - 09:23am PT


http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0181834
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Aug 31, 2017 - 12:21pm PT
"What would be different..?"

already in 6 months the ignorant Donny has put industry puppets in charge of the EPA, ruined NASA climate projects, trying to alter scientific reports about renewables, is killing the CAFE future rules, propping up the coal industry whenever possible, subsidizing oil pipelines to tar sands (this is not just approval - whenever a pipeline crosses public land, an easement is given away for free, which is a subsidy.)

MORE IMPORTANTLY,
It's not just this election. The same thing has happened in every election for DECADES. The denialist liars have won enough votes to prevent significant policy change. First they denied climate change. Now they blame China. But WE rich countries are the leaders and have to set the example; only then can we get others to follow. Bush Jr was a key denier in opposing all needed actions, installing oil and coal pigs to rewrite major scientific climate reports. He opposed even getting started on enforceable Global Treaties. All such global policies would of course evolve and be updated every few years. But we instead complained that the first steps were not perfect enough, as if that is an excuse to do nothing. We failed to enact any meaningful carbon taxes. This should have started in 1980 when first proposed by John Anderson. Any little thing proposed by Obama was immediately proclaimed as communist by the republican corrupticians, led by fossil fuel industry bribes and fake reports from Koch, ALEC, Heartland, CATO, AEI, Exxon, etc. By now we should be on the FIFTH round of Global Climate control. Instead we've done next to nothing.
ha ha ha isn't that just funny giggles


edit: I see the denier/troll/kook who I was replying to has already deleted their ignorant post.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Aug 31, 2017 - 02:18pm PT
The Hypocrite Card has been pulled.

Typical,you cannot be against something if you are part of the problem.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Sep 3, 2017 - 12:07pm PT
I'm getting closer and closer to quitting my job to work on this problem in some capacity (for pay). There are so many parts to the problem that, although your first reaction might be to just throw up your hands, humans working together can accomplish quite a lot. The main goal has to be to reduce human suffering to the extent possible. The climate changes themselves, at this point, are likely unavoidable. The reduction of human suffering is not. It will require a lot of effort and ingenuity.
mynameismud

climber
backseat
Sep 3, 2017 - 05:41pm PT
#2
The world collectively goes carbon negative averting the climate disaster and ensuring the survival of the planet. However, the costs to switching the entirety of the planet's infrastructure from Hydrocarbons to renewables on a dime would trigger a global economic collapse that would make the great depression seem like child's play. The world economy cannot sustain such a massive shift in infrastructure, and like in scenario #1. People will starve, unable to provide for their families, social unrest will explode into massive riots, and likely again, the collapse of global civilization as we know it.

I do not agree with this. Instead of creating global collapse in my opinion it will do the opposite. It will create a ton of jobs as new technologies are created plus the jobs needed to create the new infrastructure. Instead of a collapse it will be an economic boom. Just look at how many new jobs there are in CA for solar implementation and maintenance. Solar has the potential to replace jobs lost to automation.
Lennox

climber
just southwest of the center of the universe
Sep 5, 2017 - 09:56am PT



https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-015-1597-5
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Sep 7, 2017 - 12:11pm PT

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
Sep 7, 2017 - 08:07pm PT
Sam Harris interviews Joseph Romm...

https://www.samharris.org/podcast/item/what-you-need-to-know-about-climate-change
skcreidc

Social climber
SD, CA
Sep 8, 2017 - 09:54am PT
Irma is a real beauty from space. But having her bearing down on you would be ugly. Very ugly.
Tom Turrentine

Trad climber
Santa Cruz
Sep 8, 2017 - 10:17am PT
Sorry, here’s a link to Governor Todd-Whitman’s op ed: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/08/opinion/how-not-to-run-the-epa.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=region®ion=region&WT.nav=region&_r=0

Whitman was head of EPA under Bush term one. Note the development of "red teams" by Pruitt. These recall McCarthy era tactics. From inside sources at DOE, most of this has been organized by Koch operatives who were tasked with transitions in the agencies.
TLP

climber
Sep 8, 2017 - 11:31am PT
Funny thing how Gov. Scott of Florida can't abide anyone even MENTIONING atmospheric sciences in one context....but he's happy to urge millions of people to evacuate when the very same science says there's a hurricane coming, and, with relatively high probability, where it will likely arrive. That microscopic fraction of deniers is not even as rigorous as one of the spaghetti modeling tracks that shows Irma heading harmlessly way out into the Atlantic. Why didn't he just tell everyone, maybe it won't hit us at all, just stay home and chill out??
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Sep 8, 2017 - 02:25pm PT
malemute,
if we look at those plots you showed, it proves they don't agree,
and so there is no consensus, and science is worthless. QED.

The first law of denialism (kooks 19:98) says all that's required to disprove all science is to find one slightly mistaken source, and drudge it up for the rest of time. If any model ever might have been imperfect, all models must be ignored.
TLP

climber
Sep 8, 2017 - 04:05pm PT
they are as intelligent as chimps

Dubious.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Sep 8, 2017 - 08:19pm PT
i drive oilcars and do not see or care the linkage twixt that and the so called "mother" earff


a7 or deff
Ksolem

Trad climber
Monrovia, California
Sep 9, 2017 - 12:38pm PT
Oh man am I gonna step in it here.

Is the planet warming? Yes, it's clearly measurable. Are humans causing it? I'm agnostic on this. For example, on the subject of rising sea levels, the trend has been linear from 1880 to 2014. The data from 1880 to 2014 is from the Australian Gov.(tide gauges,) from the early 1990's through 2014 from the NOAA satellites. FWIW the NOAA data is slightly more linear that the gauges.

In 1880 the earths population was app. 1B. In 2014 that number is roughly 7B. I can't find stats, but I think it's safe to say that the carbon footprint per billion humans has increased substantially since 1880.

Last but not least, I'm not arguing for or against either point of view, my mind is open on this subject. I just think this data is interesting. Most of the data we are presented with is from the last 10 or 20 years, not the last 135 years. So, is the prospect of rising sea levels a serious issue? Absolutely. I don't relish the idea of Manhattan being under water. Especially Lincoln Center, Carnegie Hall and the Metropolitan Museum of Art. Does the trend of rising sea levels support the theory that it is caused by humans?




EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Sep 9, 2017 - 12:55pm PT
It is premature to conclude that human activities–and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming–have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclone activity.


I keep hearing about Irma being the most powerful Atlantic hurricane EVER!

How does Irma stack up against Wilma, Allen, Gilbert or the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane?
Ksolem

Trad climber
Monrovia, California
Sep 9, 2017 - 01:39pm PT
How do your worldview get around the thermal expansion of water?

I tried to to be clear that I don't have a "worldview" on this subject.

I need some clarification on the graphs. I searched "thermal expansion of water" and came to a bunch of calculus. Sadly they don't teach this at music school :-) I did get the principle that the expansion vs temp. is not linear. My first question is, at what depth are the measurements made? Intuitively, it seems to me that ocean water will be colder at a depth below the surface, and affected less by temperature variations at the surface. If so, how is this variable factored into the conclusions?

Regarding the storms, I posted this info on the other thread. But again I find it interesting. How about that "Cuba" hurricane held class 5 winds for 78 hours. Yikes.

August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Sep 9, 2017 - 03:02pm PT
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/why-the-city-of-miami-is-doomed-to-drown-20130620

An article from last July's Rolling Stone about Miami.
Ksolem

Trad climber
Monrovia, California
Sep 9, 2017 - 03:42pm PT
My original question originates from the graph I posted which shows a linear increase in ocean levels since 1880. This despite the world population growing by seven times. Then Malemut brought up the subject of thermal expansion of water, an interesting subject which I'd never thought about before. But the graph I posted says nothing about the mechanism by which the oceans are rising, only that they are and have been at a constant rate since the late 1800's. It seems to me to be a natural question to ask.
monolith

climber
state of being
Sep 9, 2017 - 03:59pm PT
That's not a linear increase in ocean levels, KSolem. Get out a straight edge and watch it rotate as you line up the various regions.
Norton

climber
The Wastelands
Sep 9, 2017 - 06:06pm PT
given that pretty much the majority of reasonably intelligent adults now agree that no one is lying any more about the earth setting new heat records every year now

no one really disputes that fact ..

so the two big questions are whether human activity has been and is contributing to the warming

and secondly can we do anything to lessen, to mitigate the negative effects of this warming?

when I ask this question the first response is usually how much of a tax increase will I have to personally pay? followed by - If any amount then I am against it....
Ksolem

Trad climber
Monrovia, California
Sep 9, 2017 - 06:27pm PT
Malemute's last graph there get's my attention. I'll read as much of the findings as I can understand, and watch the video.

The way I read the one I posted is, corrected for the short term variations (as Malemute's graph does,) the 40 years starting in 1880 to 1920 show a 2 inch rise. The 40 years from 1920 to 1960 look like 2.25" reading the bump around 1961 as a short term variation (Malemute's graph treats that bump the same way.) The next 40 look like another 2.25". Then the sat and gauge data disagree as to the rate.

I suppose that in such matters an increase of .25 inches for every 2 is significant, being a rate of increase of 12.5% per 40 years. Converting from mm to inches Malemute's graph shows a rate of increase of 2.2 inches per 40 years from 1930 to 1990. Then the rate of increase more than doubles? So from 1990 we should see an increase of about .5 inches per 40 year period. Am I getting this right?

Here to learn...
donini

Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
Sep 9, 2017 - 06:51pm PT
You wonder? We live in a country where, 500 years after the beginning of the scientific revolution, fully 42% of the people believe in Creationism...how bizarre is that!
Our modern lifestyle is fully dependent on, and the result of, the science that so many here reject....go figure!
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Sep 9, 2017 - 09:19pm PT
Scientific projections of sea level for the next 83 years show an accelerating average yearly rise. It's not linear. The rate of the last 20 years is 3.4mm per year, but the rate rises to roughly at least 12mm per year by 2060 (depending on the scenario). Current sea level is actually tracking the projections. The reason to worry now is that the extremely long lag times to change these outcomes. GHG emissions policy would need to get much stronger. The heat sink of the oceans takes many decades to reach a new steady state, as do major ice caps. Even changing most energy users from fossil fuel to renewables takes many years.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Sep 11, 2017 - 09:38am PT
Chris, it is important to provide the citation for the graphs you might post, if for no other reason that the plot could be reproduced independently, and by so doing, the details of what went into the plot could be known.

Just showing a plot doesn't constitute "proof" of anything.

Same with EdwardT, for instance, what is "Accumulated Cyclone Energy"?
Nuglet

Trad climber
Orange Murica!
Sep 11, 2017 - 10:53am PT
pray away climate change... hey, it worked for the gays!!!!
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Sep 11, 2017 - 11:40am PT
Splater

Sep 9, 2017 - 09:19pm PT

Scientific projections of sea level for the next 83 years show an accelerating average yearly rise. It's not linear. The rate of the last 20 years is 3.4mm per year, but the rate rises to roughly at least 12mm per year by 2060 (depending on the scenario).

Statements like this hurt credibility of the cause.

The global sea level has risen at roughly the same rate for the last 100 years or so. Yes, the rate is increasing. But to assert the rate will increase (at least) 250% by 2060 comes across as alarmist fear mongering.

If you want to win over skeptics, quit presenting worst case scenarios as if they're a given.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Sep 11, 2017 - 12:29pm PT
Statements like this hurt credibility of the cause.
The global sea level has risen at roughly the same rate for the last 100 years or so. Yes, the rate is increasing. But to assert the rate will increase (at least) 250% by 2060 comes across as alarmist fear mongering.
If you want to win over skeptics, quit presenting worst case scenarios as if they're a given.

Actually what I wrote is the CONSENSUS,
and is far from worst case.
Look it up yourself and you can see how any peer reviewed model shows this huge increasing rise.
I'm not going to do it yet again for you since it's already been done numerous times in these threads for the last 15 years which you always ignore.
IT's NOT LINEAR.
Many people have some instinct to think things are linear. They are wrong.
Denying reality is a strange cause.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Sep 11, 2017 - 07:13pm PT
from

How an ocean climate cycle favored Harvey

Julia Rosen

Science 01 Sep 2017:
Vol. 357, Issue 6354, pp. 853-854
DOI: 10.1126/science.357.6354.853

Summary
Hurricane Harvey was the first major hurricane to make landfall in the United States since 2005, but in some ways, it was long overdue. For decades now, tropical storms have been getting a boost from a powerful but still mysterious long-term cycle in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, which appears to be holding steady in its warm, storm-spawning phase. This cycle, called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), swings between warm and cool phases every 20 to 60 years, shifting North Atlantic temperatures by a degree or so and setting the backdrop for hurricane season. Since about 1995, the AMO has been in a warm state, but researchers aren't sure where it's headed next. The AMO has traditionally been attributed to natural shifts in ocean currents, and some think it's on the cusp of shifting back toward a cool, quiescent phase. But others propose that human activities—a combination of declining air pollution and greenhouse warming—might prolong the current warm period, keeping hurricane activity high.
kunlun_shan

Mountain climber
SF, CA
Sep 11, 2017 - 11:41pm PT
Irma Won’t “Wake Up” Climate Change-Denying Republicans. Their Whole Ideology Is On The Line.
Naomi Klein

https://theintercept.com/2017/09/11/irma-donald-trump-tax-cuts-climate-change-republican-ideology-capitalism/
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Sep 12, 2017 - 06:53am PT
Splater

climber
Grey Matter

Actually what I wrote is the CONSENSUS, and is far from worst case.
Look it up yourself and you can see how any peer reviewed model shows this huge increasing rise.
I'm not going to do it yet again for you since it's already been done numerous times in these threads for the last 15 years which you always ignore.
IT's NOT LINEAR.
Many people have some instinct to think things are linear. They are wrong.
Denying reality is a strange cause.

I always get a kick out watching posters puff out their chest when they get called on their BS.

"what I wrote is the CONSENSUS"

"Look it up yourself"

"I'm not going to do it yet again for you since it's already been done numerous times in these threads for the last 15 years which you always ignore."

Harrumph, harrumph, harrumph!

Anyway, did a little checcking.

Two months ago, you posted:
IPCC AR5 predictions from
http://ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter13_FINAL.pdf
page 1180-1182
Only RCP2.5 (which assumed we level out GHGs immediately below 400ppm equivalent, which is no longer possible) shows moderate increase in the sealevel rise rate. The rate has already doubled in the last 30 years to 3.2mm/yr. RCP2.5 shows an increase to 4.5mm/yr. Even that rate would mean .45meter in 100 years.

All the other scenarios show the rate going to at least 6mm/year by 2060.

Now, we're up to 12.6mm/year.

You doubled the rate in two months? This is the peer reviewed consensus?

Sure thing, sport.

Here's a few non-consensus projections.
The 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 4) projected century-end sea levels using the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES).... The six SRES "marker" scenarios projected sea level to rise by 18 to 59 centimetres. Their projections were for the time period 2090–99, with the increase in level relative to average sea level over the 1980–99 period.


Projections assessed by the US National Research Council (2010) suggest possible sea level rise over the 21st century of between 56 and 200 cm .

In its Fifth Assessment Report (2013), The IPCC concluded that if emissions continue to keep up with the worst case IPCC scenarios, global average sea level could rise by nearly 1m by 2100 (0.52−0.98 m from a 1986-2005 baseline). If emissions follow the lowest emissions scenario, then global average sea level is projected to rise by between 0.28−0.6 m by 2100 (compared to a 1986−2005 baseline).

The Third National Climate Assessment (NCA), released May 6, 2014, projected a sea level rise of 1 to 4 feet (30–120 cm) by 2100. Decision makers who are particularly susceptible to risk may wish to use a wider range of scenarios from 8 inches to 6.6 feet (20–200 cm) by 2100.

Your claim of the rate rising to roughly at least 12mm per year by 2060 and that it's the consensus opinion is just alarmist BS.
rbord

Boulder climber
atlanta
Sep 12, 2017 - 09:33am PT
Scientific projections of sea level ..
.. quit presenting worst case scenarios as if they're a given.

I think this is a problem in the wider community - that when scientists make predictions or projections based on the information that we have, people misinterpret it and think that they're making statements of fact - givens - about what is going to happen.

And then we break into camps of believers and non believers, because it seems like we need to choose one or the other. What do people like me believe?

Humans seem to have an unshakeable faith in the omniscience and omnipotence and uber-rationality of our (individual) belief processes. For me, even more than climate change, that faith, and our unwillingness (or is it inability? nah, we're omnipotent!) to notice the social component of our belief processes, is the biggest challenge we're facing in our environment.

God is coming - look busy :-)
monolith

climber
state of being
Sep 12, 2017 - 10:49am PT
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-science-predictions-prove-too-conservative/

Across two decades and thousands of pages of reports, the world's most authoritative voice on climate science has consistently understated the rate and intensity of climate change and the danger those impacts represent, say a growing number of studies on the topic.

Sea-level rise is another. In its 2001 report, the IPCC predicted an annual sea-level rise of less than 2 millimeters per year. But from 1993 through 2006, the oceans actually rose 3.3 millimeters per year, more than 50 percent above that projection.
rbord

Boulder climber
atlanta
Sep 12, 2017 - 11:04am PT
The problem is that you other people are just mental speculators.

You need to be more like me, Magical Me, and just perceive the truth, as I myself have done on countless occasions. For full details, see my published works.
rbord

Boulder climber
atlanta
Sep 12, 2017 - 11:18am PT
Thanks monolith.

I once had a very intelligent, very well respected scientist (who I personally have a lot of respect for) tell me that they expected that the political environment created by Trump's election would influence scientists to under-estimate the effects of global warming in future scientific papers.

But the idea that scientists in the previous political environment might have been influenced to over-estimate the effects of climate change was an insult to their scientific integrity.

For me, that was kind of a head scratcher, but as far as beliefs go, it seemed human enough.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Sep 12, 2017 - 03:52pm PT
Your claim of the rate rising to roughly at least 12mm per year by 2060 and that it's the consensus opinion is just alarmist BS.

Your assumptions are contradictory.
We are not talking about best case/lowest case scenarios, which assume the world takes large action to limit GHGs. That would be a scenario such as RCP2.5, which assumes emissions are highly limited very soon.

That is what I suggest we do, but it is not happening now. I am talking about scenarios where we continue to do very little control policy, the same type of non-policy favored by "skeptics" and deniers. This means a scenario such as RCP6.5 or more.

Those scenarios are where models predict .5 to 1 meter of LIKELY sea level rise by 2100. Worst case maximums are 1.5-2 meters.
.8 meter = 800mm in 90 years is 9mm per year Average.

However it's NOT a constant linear increase over time
You have to look at the actual curves. In the early years we're still at 3.5mm per year, well below the average. Measurements so far are not very useful in foretelling us about the large increases due in the future. By 2060 the yearly increase goes to well above the average. So it will likely be Higher than 12mm per year during the out years. (which will continue long past 2100 under our current feeble policy)

The reason sea level rise is not constant is mostly due to the huge time constants of ocean temperature rise and ice melting. It takes many decades for it to reach steady state after just one year's rise in GHGs. And then compound on top of that multiple years of rising GHGs.

see chart on page 5 of http://www.southeastfloridaclimatecompact.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/2015-Compact-Unified-Sea-Level-Rise-Projection.pdf
"This [low] scenario would require significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in order to be plausible and does not reflect current emissions trends."

https://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise-predictions.htm
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/dec/04/experts-ipcc-underestimated-sea-level-rise
http://www.news.com.au/world/sea-level-predictions-rise-higher/news-story/776e11c2b14abe5426c29d09b4b9c492
https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/unfccc/cop19/3_gregory13sbsta.pdf

Additionally, most models do not account for much accelerating melting of ice caps, so they are quite conservative (such as IPCC AR5)
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v531/n7596/full/nature17145.html?foxtrotcallback=true

from https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf
However, AR5 recognized the challenges of modeling additions due to the collapse of marine-based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet. More recent studies of GMSL rise have reported probability ranges that have focused on resolving ranges spanning lower probabilities and/or providing complete conditional probability distributions. An assessment of recent probabilistic studies finds GMSL rise by 2100 projected for the 90% probability (5th–95th%) range to fall between 0.25–0.80 m, 0.35–0.95 m and 0.5–1.3 m, respectively, for RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 (Miller et al., 2013; Kopp et al., 2014, 2016a; Slangen et al., 2014; Mengel et al., 2016).

Table 6 on p.23 shows that 12mm per year by 2060 is a very intermediate level prediction.
zBrown

Ice climber
Sep 12, 2017 - 06:07pm PT
The magic is back: Disney reopens in Orlando post-Irma

I ttook a random sample of one and got this result

As I was going to St. Ives,
I met a man with seven wives,
Each wife had seven sacks,
Each sack had seven cats,
Each cat had seven kits:
Kits, cats, sacks, and wives,
How many were there going to St. Ives?




eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Sep 12, 2017 - 06:36pm PT
I just want to, again, express my gratitude to Malemute for providing all of those great links. Although I've probably read only some relatively small percentage of them, they have been a welcome, additional source of data for my world view.

I never really feel like I know something until I can independently write a cogent paragraph or two summarizing my stance while not looking at any source material. Goes something like this.

Starting off with a closed system like climate on the earth:
1. LeChatlier's Rule applies; you perturb the system (e.g., add heat), you should expect the system to try to get itself back to equilibrium (9th grade science)
2. The time to equilibrium matters. The hottest part of the day does not coincide with the maximum incident sun energy (more or less noon). It's always significantly later because of the fact that it takes time to heat things up. Take home? Any fix will require time -- probably decades or more to actually be significant to the system (because it also takes time to cool things off)
3. You have to consider all of the sub-systems that are dependent on climate. Sea-level rise is the most obvious, but there are potentially so many others. A small list off the top of my head based on my reading and general understanding...
a. Larger areas of the US infested with Lyme disease or any other disease vector that gets worse with higher temperatures (most of them)
b. More frequent and/or extreme weather events
c. The exhumation of disease vectors that have not been present on the earth in thousands or tens of thousands of years because of melting glaciers
d. Changes in the major ocean currents
e. Disruption of the primary productive areas of agriculture
f. Collapse of marine subsystems -- coral reefs, for instance because of the acidification of sea water which ultimately happens when you add CO2 to the atmosphere (because of LeChatlier's Rule)

Must be 27 more. I'm thinking that climate change deniers do not really understand LeChatlier's Rule (hopefully I spelled his name right since, you know, I wasn't looking).


clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Sep 14, 2017 - 08:09am PT
The Pentagon is planning for climate change:

http://www.ecoshock.org/2017/05/climate-security-and-the-long-look.html

Chomsky "Republican Party Is The Most Dangerous Organization In Human History"

[Click to View YouTube Video]

full interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tv3d8rdiK98
skcreidc

Social climber
SD, CA
Sep 14, 2017 - 08:56am PT
f. Collapse of marine subsystems -- coral reefs, for instance because of the acidification of sea water which ultimately happens when you add CO2 to the atmosphere (because of LeChatlier's Rule)

FINALLY, I see someone bringing up collapse of marine subsystems (although I admit I am a part timer here and may have missed a large number of posts). More than half our oxygen is produced in the ocean. As far as we can tell from the rock record, the ocean is the original source of our atmospheric oxygen in the first place. Check out what happened 2.1 billion years ago. Who says life cannot have a major impact on the planet.

But I digress...the ocean is essentially an open carbonate system to one degree or another. It has already been documented that some aragonite shelled organisms (including oxygen producers) in the water column are showing signs of dissolution of their shells depending upon location. The dissolution is related to local lowering of the pH by CO2 equilibrium. The coral reef destruction appears to be mostly related to "bleaching" events caused by higher water temperatures (although cold water bleaching is also known). So it is a related event, but not caused by the same mechanism.

Another comment is that I would say considering the Earths climate a closed system is an assumption, although it may be good enough for our current evaluation.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Sep 14, 2017 - 07:22pm PT
Another comment is that I would say considering the Earths climate a closed system is an assumption, although it may be good enough for our current evaluation.

I'm not sure that that is an assumption. The vast majority of energy available to life on planet Earth is from the Sun. It is also what drives most of the atmospheric and oceanic systems.

That makes the Earth's climate NOT a closed system.

Lennox

climber
just southwest of the center of the universe
Sep 15, 2017 - 09:44am PT
^

It is also very much not a closed system because of the heat radiated into space.



https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/EnergyBalance/page4.php
skcreidc

Social climber
SD, CA
Sep 15, 2017 - 10:13am PT
Hi Ed. I tend to suck at communication, so this is probably my fault. I totally agree that Earths climate is an open, not closed system. My assumption comment was really in response to Greg's last comment

Starting off with a closed system like climate on the earth:

where after that he went into a list of things related to climate change. To my mind the phrase "starting off with" = "assuming", but I do come at this form an old school perspective. It also is another way of saying "ignoring these factors, we can say bla bla bla" if you get my meaning. For instance, in a basic evaluation of the ocean as an open or closed carbonate system I think you can ignore the sun's effects on Earth and still get good information of potential impacts to the oceans chemistry using that system of equations. The only difference between the two systems would include the partial pressure of CO2 gas (open system with 6 equations vs 5 for closed).

KH = {H2CO3*} / PCO2 = 10-1.47

You are basically assuming a constant source of CO2 and constant temperature in addition to the other five equations.



Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Sep 15, 2017 - 10:39am PT
First ... assume a spherical chicken ...

The words of my college physics professor.
Digits

Trad climber
Ca
Sep 15, 2017 - 02:59pm PT
Awesomeness!!! We may have alligators thriving once again on Ellesmere Island in the high north of Canada!
Marlow

Sport climber
OSLO
Sep 17, 2017 - 12:53pm PT

Learning from mistakes in climate research

Among papers stating a position on anthropogenic global warming (AGW), 97 % endorse AGW. What is happening with the 2 % of papers that reject AGW? We examine a selection of papers rejecting AGW. An analytical tool has been developed to replicate and test the results and methods used in these studies; our replication reveals a number of methodological flaws, and a pattern of common mistakes emerges that is not visible when looking at single isolated cases. Thus, real-life scientific disputes in some cases can be resolved, and we can learn from mistakes. A common denominator seems to be missing contextual information or ignoring information that does not fit the conclusions, be it other relevant work or related geophysical data. In many cases, shortcomings are due to insufficient model evaluation, leading to results that are not universally valid but rather are an artifact of a particular experimental setup. Other typical weaknesses include false dichotomies, inappropriate statistical methods, or basing conclusions on misconceived or incomplete physics. We also argue that science is never settled and that both mainstream and contrarian papers must be subject to sustained scrutiny. The merit of replication is highlighted and we discuss how the quality of the scientific literature may benefit from replication.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-015-1597-5
Digits

Trad climber
Ca
Sep 17, 2017 - 06:19pm PT
About 2.5 million years ago, the water level was about 100 feet higher than it is today. The Panhandle of Florida was just the Northern half of what it is today and a small land mass about two-thirds of the peninsula width extended down to Lake City. And a few islands extended as far south as Orlando. You can see evidence of this in the northern part of Tallahassee, where the soil is much like southern Georgia — red clay.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.tallahassee.com/amp/29418253
rbord

Boulder climber
atlanta
Sep 20, 2017 - 02:26pm PT
I recommend Breitbart as a good learning tool. The story there today is about a mets pitcher who said that the hurricanes are karma for Trump pulling out of the Paris accord.

Big news! Comments and comments and comments and comments. People like us don't believe in climate change! We get all bent out of shape over something a baseball player says.

Fake news at its finest. Real news of climate change pales in comparison, to a human way of forming beliefs. Yea, it's a problem, from my perspective.
Lennox

climber
just southwest of the center of the universe
Sep 21, 2017 - 09:59am PT
Even if humanity were able to decrease carbon emissions by 2100 to levels identified in the IPCC's best case scenario, a new study indicates that earth will still likely undergo another mass extinction event because of our penchant for sh!tting gigatons of waste where we -- and all the other life in the universe that we know of -- eat, drink and breathe.


http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/9/e1700906
rbord

Boulder climber
atlanta
Sep 21, 2017 - 10:38am PT
Thanks for fixing it new world order!

I think we're both talking about the same problem, and however it is that best gets us to tune into the problem - great!

Humans form beliefs for reasons other than the data and logic.

IMHO, gathering data about climate change and using logic on that data are the easy part. Getting humans to believe it is the hard part.
Lennox

climber
just southwest of the center of the universe
Sep 22, 2017 - 11:27am PT


http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0259.1
TLP

climber
Sep 22, 2017 - 12:10pm PT
NWO, both terms "global warming" and "climate change" are used in science depending on what the main subject matter is. For example, if rainfall in a particular spot is much higher or lower as a consequence of a change in temperature, one would reasonably talk about climate change: the fact that the pattern is different is much more important than the number of degrees of warming planet-wide. If the subject is melting of ice in many places all at once, it would make sense for the terminology to be global warming.

Both are unequivocally happening. This was all discussed clearly in a National Academy of Sciences report in the late 1970s. Nothing new.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Sep 24, 2017 - 08:33am PT
Yesterday, whilst I awaited my pot to boil, I wondered whether anybody has computed how much energy and how much global warming has been caused by people putting too much water in their pot. Surely it is considerable and, surely in angst-ridden Europe, can a carbon tax on over-filling yer teapot be far behind?
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Sep 24, 2017 - 09:22am PT
Reilly...I'm holding you and your full teapot personally responsible for the increasing number of red klister days...!
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Sep 24, 2017 - 09:32am PT
To get a full pot, I always add a cup of water to the coffee dripper after the brewing starts to make up for "the angels' share" lost in the grounds.

F the goddamn angels. Let them brew their own coffee.
yosemite 5.9

climber
santa cruz
Sep 27, 2017 - 06:35pm PT
Ed Hartouni explained to me a few years ago how carbon molecules absorb solar energy and emit it into the atmosphere, rather than letting it pass to the ground. What I recently learned is that, while water vapor is the primary greenhouse gas in terms of %'s, changes in carbon molecules have more effect as a secondary greenhouse gas than changes in water vapor. My understanding now is that a carbon molecule absorbs and emits solar energy more than a water molecule. So a change in carbon levels has a disproportionally larger effect than the %'s indicate. I can see that this make sense since carbon is black and water is clear. Black objects absorb more light. Let me know if I am track, Ed.

I have been waiting for solar cycles to begin cooling the earth. But this was supposed to begin around 2013. It doesn't seem to have happened. The change is solar cycles may not be enough to offset increases in carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere at this time, it appears to me for now.
monolith

climber
state of being
Sep 27, 2017 - 07:57pm PT
5.9, it's more like co2 causes the atmosphere to warm, thus it has more capacity to hold more water vapour which amplifies the warming. That's why co2 is called the driver. We don't blame the mass of the car when it is involved in an accident, we blame the driver.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Sep 28, 2017 - 11:09am PT
Carbon black is soot, a solid, not CO2 gas. It is not a primary cause of warming. Soot on the ground does increase temperatures especially in snowy areas, since it absorbs heat and melts snow/ice. Soot in the air it may sometimes act like volcanic dust, and cause temporary cooling.

The carbon you're talking about is in the form of CO2 (invisible to humans) as Malemute said.
Although water vapor is a big greenhouse gas, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is actually a dependent, passive variable. The CO2 (and other gases like methane) are the cause, and water vapor is a feedback.
First the greenhouse effect of added CO2 and methane cause a certain amount of temperature rise.
Then due to that temperature rise, more water evaporates into the air,
and that causes even more warming.
So the greenhouse effect of the additional water vapor is actually caused by fossil fuels - the CO2 & methane.

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025202?fromSearchPage=true
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025207/meta
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025210

Solar activity cycles every ~11 years, but are not a significant factor in recent long term warming. When it peaks, more heat reaches the Earth. But then each cycle falls back down to the low. The average irradiance stays the same over the last 67 years. So solar activity is not the cause of the long term global warming. http://lasp.colorado.edu/home/sorce/files/2011/09/TIM_TSI_Reconstruction-1.png
rbord

Boulder climber
atlanta
Sep 28, 2017 - 11:14am PT
We don't blame the mass of the car when it is involved in an accident, we blame the driver.

Blaming humans for being human is a human specialty. So is climate change. We might not be able to fix the latter until we fix the former.

When a computer is driving the car, are we gonna blame the computer? Maybe a computer already is driving the car, and we need to reverse engineer it's programming, and fix it.

IMHO, there's a very small minority of people on either side who have a well researched well reasoned belief about climate change, one way or the other. I'm not one of them. Then there's the huge majority of us humans with our wacky belief processes (I'm a democrat so I believe in climate change, or whatever) who believe whatever it is that we believe for the reasons that we believe them. And mostly we don't understand those reasons.

IMHO, climate science is the easy part. Getting people to believe it is the hard part.
monolith

climber
state of being
Sep 28, 2017 - 12:25pm PT
When a computer is driving the car, are we gonna blame the computer

Of course, if the computer caused the accident.

And yeah, the human started up the computer.

rbord

Boulder climber
atlanta
Sep 28, 2017 - 12:28pm PT
Thanks. Good point.

Who started up the human? How does that human thing that started up the computer thing work?
monolith

climber
state of being
Sep 28, 2017 - 12:30pm PT
Sorry, I kept editing.
rbord

Boulder climber
atlanta
Sep 28, 2017 - 12:31pm PT
Yea I'm human too. Thanks! :-)
yosemite 5.9

climber
santa cruz
Sep 28, 2017 - 07:59pm PT
Thanks Malemute.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Oct 1, 2017 - 09:04pm PT
The Sun emits light at roughly 6000 K while the Earth does around 300 K,

The fraction of the spectrum absorbed by CO2, water vapor, etc, is higher at 300 K than at 6000 K, so the atmospheric CO2 lets a large fraction of the sunlight in and absorbs that the light radiated by the Earth.

This absorption heats the atmosphere, and that, in turn, increases the water content, which increases the absorption and the temperature.

If you removed the CO2 the water vapor would eventually condense and rain out and the atmosphere would cool.

This mechanism has been known since the mid 1890s and is used in many simple planetary atmosphere models without controversy, although the atmospheric gases may be different on those other planets. The light frequency dependent absorption of atmospheric gases are used to calculate the energy balance.

While some have speculated that the Sun is cycling into a state which might be like the Maunder Minimum (which coincided with the Little Ice Age), the only observations we have are the number of Sun spots. It isn't at all clear how to relate the Sun spots to solar output, and in any case, we don't have a solar model that predicts the Sun's behavior well enough to understand its irradiance at a precision required to predict climate changes.

The solar sun spot cycle is on the order of a decade and the there is no evidence of it in the climate data.

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Oct 1, 2017 - 11:55pm PT
CO2 absorbs then almost immediately reemits radiation in all directions in a narrow frequency band. At best, it slightly impedes the escape to space of that narrow bandwidth. There has never been an experiment that adequately reproduces the complexities of earth's atmosphere that establishes conclusively the level of impedance and resultant atmospheric heating. Also, the theorized positive feedback of increased atmospheric water content as a result of CO2 radiative impedance has failed to materialize as the steadily decreasing estimates of transient and equalized climate sensitivity indicates.
monolith

climber
state of being
Oct 2, 2017 - 07:43am PT
Sumner is a greenhouse gas effect denier. They are not allowed on WattsUpWithThat because it's too absurd, even for them.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Oct 2, 2017 - 07:58am PT
Rick doesn't usually post unless I post to these climate threads, he sees himself as some sort of "fair and balanced" voice, and he affects a scientific tone even though he has no science background, and has not read widely in the scientific literature. In general he does not provide a cogent quantitative argument on any of his points, he does not provide citations to the sources of the arguments he makes, and he is firmly entrenched in his beliefs, which are largely political.

Even more odd, he believes in meritocracy but is suspicious of intellectual elites, who, when you think of it, have demonstrated their abilities in a meritocracy... but that particular paradox is a trait of various parts of American politics.


CO2 absorbs then almost immediately reemits radiation in all directions in a narrow frequency band. At best, it slightly impedes the escape to space of that narrow bandwidth.

Rick is a longtime skeptic and while he makes scientific sounding statements he actually just parrots what he reads. This part of the energy balance of the atmosphere is well understood and has been a part of all atmospheric models for a very long time.


There has never been an experiment that adequately reproduces the complexities of earth's atmosphere that establishes conclusively the level of impedance and resultant atmospheric heating.

The predictability of the current atmospheric models is a very good indication that those models contain the correct science. What experiment would Rick do to demonstrate this?

He has no idea.

Also, the theorized positive feedback of increased atmospheric water content as a result of CO2 radiative impedance has failed to materialize as the steadily decreasing estimates of transient and equalized climate sensitivity indicates.

This last statement is an indication of his confusion, where he reduces the entire process to a single parameter "climate sensitivity" yet in his previous sentence states that the atmosphere is to complex to simplify.

Rick is confused largely because he puts his desired conclusion in front of any scientific arguments, and searches for those web sources that claim to support them.

In a letter I just received from the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) there is this sentence:

"We must move beyond debating that climate chance is real and human induced."

see the latest public statement: http://www.aaas.org/sites/default/files/06282016.pdf

June 28, 2016
Dear Members of Congress,


We, as leaders of major scientific organizations, write to remind you of the consensus scientific view of climate change.

Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research concludes that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver. This conclusion is based on multiple independent lines of evidence and the vast body of peer-reviewed science.

There is strong evidence that ongoing climate change is having broad negative impacts on society, including the global economy, natural resources, and human health. For the United States, climate change impacts include greater threats of extreme weather events, sea level rise, and increased risk of regional water scarcity, heat waves, wildfires, and the disturbance of biological systems. The severity of climate change impacts is increasing and is expected to increase substantially in the coming decades.1

To reduce the risk of the most severe impacts of climate change, greenhouse gas emissions must be substantially reduced. In addition, adaptation is necessary to address unavoidable consequences for human health and safety, food security, water availability, and national security, among others.

We, in the scientific community, are prepared to work with you on the scientific issues important to your deliberations as you seek to address the challenges of our changing climate.

American Association for the Advancement of Science American Chemical Society
American Geophysical Union
American Institute of Biological Sciences
American Meteorological Society
American Public Health Association
American Society of Agronomy
American Society of Ichthyologists and Herpetologists American Society of Naturalists
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Oct 2, 2017 - 09:39am PT
An interesting fact: The US is 16 on the list of CO2 per capita.
Australia and Luxembourg are ahead of us.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Oct 2, 2017 - 09:51am PT
What part of America First is America missing?



And I really dig the patient, articulate skewering of Sumner's tired old pullstring doll womitage. Fine work, Hartouni.
Cragar

climber
MSLA - MT
Oct 4, 2017 - 07:05am PT
Fine work, Hartouni.

Man, boy howdy! I have to thank Ed for his contributions and for the micro-bits of knowledge I have gained on the subject of climate/physics. I have spent a few hours(or days) following his links and doing my own research to educate myself on the subject. His ability to articulate what can be hard to understand in the lit, is much appreciated.

the Fet

climber
Tu-Tok-A-Nu-La
Oct 10, 2017 - 12:57pm PT
Sorry climate change denial will never stop. The Trump presidency has shown me that no matter how obvious something is there will always be those who need to self-delude to believe what they need to believe. And there will be no shortage of people invested in the status quo who will feed them the alternative facts they need. It will be a smaller and smaller minority but there will always be some who will never change. I have pretty much given up on these folks and believe our time is better spent encouraging more rational people to action.
Cragar

climber
MSLA - MT
Oct 10, 2017 - 01:10pm PT
Nice equation Malamute but since X will most likely not be $white$ men/women I'd go up to something like 13-15% (a guess but I think it would be this high if not higher before 'denialists' will become realists.

For Y I'd expect it to be a little lower as the privileged class are the owners and as soon as the slightest loss of $$ occurs, action will take place, IMO. The feeding trough will be provided by least wealthy tax payers in our union.

Of course the two variables are tied to $$ like flies on sh_t as opposed to the measured reality of change. For the holders of $$ to remain the holders of $$, it is in their best interest for it to become a catastrophe (cough, Gov't relief, cough) and act like they never saw it coming and will now need assistance (cough, Gov't relief, cough) to continue their freedom($) granted by the UST. USPT = United Suckers Paying Taxes.

This is one of the $ad realitie$ of the U$, it is all about the $$. Empathy and understanding have been chewed and eaten by the billfolds of U$ $ociety.
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Oct 11, 2017 - 07:29pm PT
They will be when global food resources suffer in a big way
yosemite 5.9

climber
santa cruz
Oct 13, 2017 - 10:04pm PT
The Sun emits light at roughly 6000 K while the Earth does around 300 K,

The fraction of the spectrum absorbed by CO2, water vapor, etc, is higher at 300 K than at 6000 K, so the atmospheric CO2 lets a large fraction of the sunlight in and absorbs that the light radiated by the Earth.

Ed, can you please clarify the above?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Oct 14, 2017 - 08:01pm PT
not sure what it the question is...

when an atom absorbs the "heat," in the form of photons of a particular frequency, it can get rid of that energy by radiating it or by conducting it to other atoms through collisions.

Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Oct 18, 2017 - 10:00am PT
The Sun emits light at roughly 6000 K while the Earth does around 300 K,

The fraction of the spectrum absorbed by CO2, water vapor, etc, is higher at 300 K than at 6000 K, so the atmospheric CO2 lets a large fraction of the sunlight in and absorbs that the light radiated by the Earth.

Maybe these will help.



Curt


clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Oct 19, 2017 - 11:07am PT
Oregon-Washington Dead Zones: Global Warming and Anoxic Oceans

http://sapiengames.com/2008/02/28/oregon-washington-dead-zones-global-warming-and-anoxic-oceans/

Video images scanned from the seafloor revealed a boneyard of crab skeletons, dead fish and other marine life smothered under a white mat of bacteria. At times, the camera’s unblinking eye revealed nothing at all — a barren undersea desert in waters renowned for their bounty of Dungeness crabs and fat rockfish.

------------------------------------------------------


Awakening the Horrors of the Ancient Hothouse — Hydrogen Sulfide in the World’s Warming Oceans

https://robertscribbler.com/2014/01/21/awakening-the-horrors-of-the-ancient-hothouse-hydrogen-sulfide-in-the-worlds-warming-oceans/

Sulphate was common in the world’s emerging oceans and reacted well with hydrogen, which was also very common. The result was the emergence of some of the oldest known living organisms — the sulphate reducing bacteria.

Suphate reducing bacteria combined sulphate and hydrogen to produce hydrogen sulfide gas or H2S.

As a result, ancient oceans were cauldrons bubbling over with hydrogen sulfide which was the biproduct of these primordial organisms’ respiration in much the same way that oxygen is a biproduct of plant respiration and CO2 is a biproduct of animal respiration. Such an ocean state, called a Canfield Ocean by today’s scientists, was the common state for the world’s oceans until the emergence of more complex life around 2.5 billion years ago. By about 600 million years ago, the Canfield Ocean state only very rarely came into being and when it did, mass death tended to rapidly follow.

Changes Came With the Emergence of Oxygen

As the Earth system matured and new organisms came into being, CO2 reducing photosynthetic life emerged and began to produce an abundance of oxygen. Toxic to the ancient organisms, the abundance of oxygen pushed the sulphate reducing bacteria into the world’s low-oxygen corners. The deep ocean, or anaerobic mud became a haven for these tiny primordial monsters. Never again would they dominate as they once did. But, from time to time, when priomordial ocean states would infrequently emerge during various hot-house phases in Earth’s climate progression, these life forms would explode, producing prodigious volumes of what, to more complex life, was the very toxic hydrogen sulfide gas.

A Toxic, Volatile Gas

Hydrogen sulfide is directly toxic to most plant and animal based life. Its effects in animals are similar to that of hydrogen cyanide in that it eventually results in cardio-pulminary shock and then death. Lower levels of hydrogen sulfide are associated with loss of smell, blindness, respiratory infections, and loss of neurological and nervous system function. At very low levels, hydrogen sulfide is non toxic and is even produced in cells to perform various functions. Human lethality begins at around 600 parts per million.

----------------------------------------------------------------------


Methane Catastrophes in Earth's Past . . . and Near Future?

http://www.killerinourmidst.com/

If a methane catastrophe were to happen in the near future, it is likely that not only would a considerable percentage of existing plants and animals be killed off, but a large percentage of the human population as well, as a result of the climate change and significantly more hostile environmental conditions. Yet we may well be heading toward such a catastrophe, produced by our warming of the planet.

Just how rapidly seafloor methane will be released depends on numerous factors that are quite difficult to assess. It is possible that seafloor methane will be released so slowly that it will only have a relatively minor warming effect on Earth's climate. On the other hand, because the coming methane release will be the result of our warming of the planet via the burning of fossil and other acrbon fuels, it could happen much more quickly. Indeed, it seems that we are currently pumping the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide into the atmosphere at a much faster -- perhaps tens to hundreds of times faster -- rate than has ever before naturally occurred in the last half billion years or so of the Earth's history. The catastrophic warming we are causing is -- to the best of our knowledge -- unprecedented since the early days of our planet, billions of years ago. Such warming could well lead to methane catastrophe.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Oct 30, 2017 - 10:31am PT
Some Failed Climate Predictions
Andy May October 30, 2017
By Javier

Here, for the first time in public, is Javier’s entire collection of massive, “consensus” climate science prediction failures. This collection is carefully selected from only academics or high-ranking officials, as reported in the press or scientific journals. Rather than being exhaustive, this is a list of fully referenced arguments that shows that consensus climate science usually gets things wrong, and thus their predictions cannot be trusted.

To qualify for this list, the prediction must have failed. Alternatively, it is also considered a failure when so much of the allowed time has passed that a drastic and improbable change in the rate of change is required for it to be true. Also, we include a prediction when observations are going in the opposite way. Finally, it also qualifies when one thing and the opposite are both predicted.

A novelty is that I also add a part B that includes obvious predictions that consensus climate science did not make. In science you are also wrong if you fail to predict the obvious.

A. Failed predictions

1. Warming rate predictions

1990 IPCC FAR: “Under the IPCC ‘Business as Usual’ emissions of greenhouse gases the average rate of increase of global mean temperature during the next century is estimated to be 0.3°C per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0.2°C – 0.5°C).” See here, page xi.

Reality check: Since 1990 the warming rate has been from 0.12 to 0.19°C per decade depending on the database used, outside the uncertainty range of 1990. CO2 emissions have tracked the “Business as Usual” scenario. An interesting discussion of the 1990 FAR report warming predictions and an analysis of them through April of 2015 can be seen here. A list of official warming rates from various datasets and for various time spans can be seen here.

2. Temperature predictions

1990 IPCC FAR: “Under the IPCC ‘Business as Usual’ emissions of greenhouse gases … this will result in a likely increase in global mean temperature of about 1°C above the present value by 2025.” See here, page xi.

Reality check: From 1990 to 2017 (first 8 months) the increase in temperatures has been 0.31 to 0.49°C depending on the database used. CO2 emissions have tracked the Business as Usual scenario.

3. Winter predictions

2001 IPCC TAR (AR3) predicts that milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms, see here.

2014 Dr. John Holdren, director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy for the Obama administration said: “a growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States as we speak is a pattern we can expect to see with increasing frequency, as global warming continues.” See here.

Reality check: By predicting both milder winters and colder winters the probability of getting it right increases. Now, to cover all possibilities they simply need to predict no change in winters.

4. Snow predictions

2000 Dr. David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, predicts that within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”. “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.” See here.

2001 IPCC TAR (AR3) predicts that milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms. See here.

2004 Adam Watson, from the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology in Banchory, Aberdeenshire, said the Scottish skiing industry had no more than 20 years left. See here.

Reality check: 2014 had the snowiest Scottish mountains in 69 years. One ski resort’s problem was having some of the lifts buried in snow. See here.

Reality check: Northern Hemisphere snow area shows remarkable little change since 1967. See here. The 2012-2013 winter was the fourth largest winter snow cover extent on record for the Northern Hemisphere. See here.

5. Precipitation predictions

2007 IPCC AR4 predicts that by 2020, between 75 and 250 million of people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change. In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50%. See here.

Reality check: Only six years later, IPPC acknowledges that confidence is low for a global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness (lack of rainfall) since the middle of the 20th century, and that AR4 conclusions regarding global increasing trends in drought since the 1970s were probably overstated. See here, page 162.

6. Extreme weather predictions

2010 Dr. Morris Bender, from NOAA, and coauthors predict that “the U.S. Southeast and the Bahamas will be pounded by more very intense hurricanes in the coming decades due to global warming.” They say the strongest hurricanes may double in frequency. See here.

Reality check: After 40 years of global warming no increase in hurricanes has been detected. NOAA U.S. Landfalling Tropical System index shows no increase, and in fact, a very unusual 11-year drought in strong hurricane US landfalls took place from 2005-2016. See NOAA statistics here.

IPCC AR5 (see here) states “Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century … No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin”

“In summary, there continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale”

“In summary, there is low confidence in observed trends in small-scale severe weather phenomena such as hail and thunderstorms”

7. Wildfire predictions

2001 IPCC TAR (AR3) said that fire frequency is expected to increase with human-induced climate change, and that several authors suggest that climate change is likely to increase the number of days with severe burning conditions, prolong the fire season, and increase lightning activity, all of which lead to probable increases in fire frequency and areas burned. See here.

2012 Steve Running, a wildfire expert, ecologist and forestry professor at the University of Montana says the fires burning throughout the U.S. offer a window into what we can expect in the future as the climate heats up. See here.

Reality check: The global area of land burned each year declined by 24 percent between 1998 and 2015, according to analysis of satellite data by NASA scientists and their colleagues. Scientists now believe the decrease in forest fires is increasing 7% the amount of CO2 stored by plants. See here.

8. Rotation of the Earth predictions

2007 Dr. Felix Landerer of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, published a study predicting that Global warming will make Earth spin faster. See here.

2015 Dr. Jerry Mitrovica, professor of geophysics at Harvard University finds out that days are getting longer as the Earth spins slower, and blames climate change. See here.

Reality check: Doing one thing and its opposite simultaneously has always been possible for climate change. However, the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) informs us that the Earth slowed down from the start of measurements in 1962 to 1972, and sped up between 1972 and 2005. Since 2006 it is slowing down again. It shows the same inconsistency as global warming. See here.

9. Arctic sea ice predictions

2007 Prof. Wieslaw Maslowski from Dept. Oceanography of the US Navy predicted an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer 2013, and said the prediction was conservative. See here.

2007 NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally predicted that the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer in 2012. See here.

2008 University of Manitoba Prof. David Barber predicted an ice-free North Pole for the first time in history in 2008, see here.

2010 Mark Serreze, director of the NSIDC predicts the Arctic will be ice free in the summer by 2030, see here.

2012 Prof. Peter Wadhams, head of the polar ocean physics group at the University of Cambridge (UK), predicted a collapse of the Arctic ice sheet by 2015-2016, see here.

Reality check: No decrease in September Arctic sea ice extent has been observed since 2007, see here and here.

10. Polar bear predictions

2005 The 40 members of the Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG) of the World Conservation Union decided to classify the polar bear as “vulnerable” based on a predicted 30 percent decline in their worldwide population over the next 35 to 50 years. The principal cause of this decline is stated to be climatic warming and its negative effects on the sea ice habitat. See here.

2017 The US Fish and Wildlife Service releases a report concluding that human-driven global warming is the biggest threat to polar bears and that if action isn’t taken soon the Arctic bears could be in serious risk of extinction. “It cannot be overstated that the single most important action for the recovery of polar bears is to significantly reduce the present levels of global greenhouse gas emissions.” See here.

2010 Science: Fake polar bear picture chosen to illustrate a letter to Science about scientific integrity on climate change. You just can’t make this stuff up. See here and here.

Reality check: Average September Arctic sea ice extent for the 1996-2005 period was 6.46 million km2. It declined by 26% to 4.77 million km2 for the 2007-2016 period. Despite the sea ice decline the polar bear population increased from a 20,000-25,000 estimate in 2005 to a 22,000-31,000 estimate in 2015. See here.

11. Glacier predictions

2007 IPCC AR4 says there is a very high likelihood that Himalayan glaciers will disappear by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate. See here.

IPCC officials recanted the prediction in 2010 after it was revealed the source was not peer-reviewed. Previously they had criticized the Indian scientist that questioned the prediction and ignored an IPCC author than in 2006 warned the prediction was wrong. See here.

12. Sea level predictions

1981 James Hansen, NASA scientist, predicted a global warming of “almost unprecedented magnitude” in the next century that might even be sufficient to melt and dislodge the ice cover of West Antarctica, eventually leading to a worldwide rise of 15 to 20 feet in the sea level. See here.

Reality check: Since 1993 (24 years) we have totaled 72 mm (3 inches) of sea level rise instead of the 4 feet that corresponds to one-fourth of a century. The alarming prediction is more than 94% wrong, so far. See here.

A NASA study, published in the Journal of Glaciology in 2015, claims that Antarctic ice mass is increasing. See here. Antarctic sea ice reached a record extent in 2014, see here.

13. Sinking nations predictions

1989 Noel Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program (UNEP) says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000. As global warming melts polar icecaps, ocean levels will rise by up to three feet, enough to cover the Maldives and other flat island nations. See here.

Reality check: Tide gauges referenced by GPS at 12 locations in the South Pacific reported variable trends between -1 to +3 mm/year for the 1992-2010 period. See here.

The Diego Garcia atoll in the Indian ocean experienced a land area decrease of only 0.92% between 1963 and 2013. See here.

The Funafuti atoll has experienced a 7.3% net island area increase between 1897 and 2013. See here.

14. Food shortage predictions

1994 A study, by Columbia and Oxford Universities researchers, predicted that under CO2 conditions assumed to occur by 2060, food production was expected to decline in developing countries (up to -50% in Pakistan). Even a high level of farm-level adaptation in the agricultural section could not prevent the negative effects. See here.

2008 Stanford researchers predicted a 95% chance that several staple food crops in South Asia and Southern Africa will suffer crop failures and produce food shortages by 2030, due to 1°C warming from the 1980-2000 average. See here.

Reality check: On average, food production in developing countries has been keeping pace with their population growth. Pakistan, with 180 million people, is among the world’s top ten producers of wheat, cotton, sugarcane, mango, dates and kinnow oranges, and holds 13th position in rice production. Pakistan shows impressive and continuously growing amounts of agricultural production, according to FAO. See here.

15. Climate refugee predictions

2005 Janos Bogardi, director of the Institute for Environment and Human Security at the United Nations University in Bonn and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) warned that there could be up to 50 million environmental refugees by the end of the decade. See here.

2008 UN Deputy secretary-general Srgjan Kerim, tells the UN General Assembly, that it had been estimated that there would be between 50 million and 200 million environmental migrants by 2010. See here.

2008 UNEP Map showing the areas of origin of the 50 million climate refugees by 2010. See here.

2011 Cristina Tirado, from the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability at UCLA, says 50 million “environmental refugees” will flood into the global north by 2020, fleeing food shortages sparked by climate change. See here.

Reality check: As of 2017 only one person has claimed climate change refugee status: The world “first climate change refugee” Ioane Teitiota from Kiribati. His claim was dismissed by a court in New Zealand in 2014. See here.

16. Climate change casualty predictions

1987 Dr. John Holdren, director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy for the Obama administration then a professor at U.C. Berkeley was cited by Paul Ehrlich: “As University of California physicist John Holdren has said, it is possible that carbon dioxide climate-induced famines could kill as many as a billion people before the year 2020.” See here.

2009 Dr. John Holdren, director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy for the Obama administration, when questioned by Sen. David Vitter admitted that 1 billion people lost by 2020 was still a possibility. See here.

Reality check: There was a 42% reduction in the number of hungry and undernourished people from 1990-1992 to 2012-2014. Currently, the world produces enough food to feed everyone. Per capita food availability for the whole world has increased from 2,220 kcal/person/day in the early 1960’s to 2,790 kcal/person/day in 2006-2008. See here.

17. Time running out predictions

1989 Noel Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program (UNEP) says that within the next 10 years, given the present loads that the atmosphere must bear, we have an opportunity to start the stabilizing process. See here.

2006 NASA scientist James Hansen says the world has a 10-year window of opportunity to take decisive action on global warming and avert catastrophe. See here.

2007 U.N. Scientists say only eight years left to avoid worst effects See here.

B. Failure to predict

1. A greener planet

1992 The CO2 fertilization effect was well known, and experiments since at least 1988 showed that farm yields increased significantly. This was an easy prediction to make, yet it was ignored. See here.

In 2007 the IPCC was still downplaying the importance of the effect: “Since saturation of CO2 stimulation due to nutrient or other limitations is common, it is not yet clear how strong the CO2 fertilization effect actually is.” See here.

However recent satellite image analysis of changes in the leaf area index since 1982 have demonstrated a very strong greening over 25-50% of the Earth. CO2 fertilization is responsible for most of the greening, with the increase in temperatures also contributing. See here.

2. Increase in forest biomass

2006: For four of the past five decades global forest dynamics were thought to be primarily driven by deforestation. It was only in the last decade when it was noticed that a great majority of reports were contradicting that assumption. “Of the 49 papers reporting forest production levels we reviewed, 37 showed a positive growth trend.” The authors also write “climatic changes seemed to have a generally positive impact on forest productivity” when sufficient water is available. See here.

2010: The observed forest biomass increase was found to greatly exceed natural recovery, and was attributed to climate change, through changes in temperature and CO2. See here.

2015: Satellite passive microwave observations demonstrate that the trend is global and is accompanied by a recent decrease in tropical deforestation. See here.

3. Carbon sinks increases

1992: In the late 80’s a “missing sink” was discovered in the carbon budget accounting, and was discussed through the 90’s. The possibility that Earth’s oceans and terrestrial ecosystems could respond to the increase in CO2 by absorbing more CO2 had not occurred to climate scientists, and when it occurred to them they mistakenly thought that deforestation would be a higher factor. See here.

4. Slowdown in warming

2006: Professor Robert Carter, a geologist and paleoclimatologist at James Cook University, Queensland, was one of the first to report the unexpected slowdown in warming that took place between 1998 and 2014. See here.

The scientific climate community essentially ignored the issue until 2013 and have recently become split on its reality, with a small group negating it even took place. Nobody in the scientific community is even considering the possibility that the “Pause” might not have ended and was only temporarily interrupted by the 2015-16 big El Niño.

Conclusions

There is only one possible conclusion regarding the reliability of climate predictions. Outspoken catastrophic-minded climate scientists and high-ranking officials don’t have a clue about future climate and its consequences, and are inventing catastrophic predictions for their own interest. Government policies should not be based on their future predictions.

Another conclusion is that studies and opinions about future climate are heavily biased towards negative outcomes that fail to materialize, while ignoring positive outcomes that are materializing.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/10/30/some-failed-climate-predictions/

Y'all have a nice day. ;-)
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Oct 30, 2017 - 10:40am PT
EdwardTroll, thanks for the 100% gibberish nonsense pasted from one of the all time top websites for idiots.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Oct 30, 2017 - 10:53am PT
The trouble with climate discussion is the use of science, math, reality, and history to convince people who don't believe in science, math, reality, or history.
Lennox

climber
just southwest of the center of the universe
Oct 30, 2017 - 02:58pm PT


What is wrong with the 2% of scholarly articles that reject AGW?



https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-015-1597-5












Just for you EdwardT!

. )
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Oct 30, 2017 - 04:19pm PT
The trouble with climate discussion is the use of science, math, reality, and history to convince people who don't believe in science, math, reality, or history.

Splater nails it!
Lennox

climber
just southwest of the center of the universe
Oct 30, 2017 - 04:56pm PT
Greenhouse gas concentrations surge to new record


https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/greenhouse-gas-concentrations-surge-new-record

https://ane4bf-datap1.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/wmocms/s3fs-public/ckeditor/files/GHG_Bulletin_13_EN_final_1_1.pdf?LGJNmHpwKkEG2Qw4mEQjdm6bWxgWAJHa



Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 2, 2017 - 06:17pm PT
How big would the ozone hole be if there weren't an international treaty (Montreal Treaty 1987) limiting emissions that disturb the ozone layer?
" Scientists found in a 2009 study that without the Montreal Protocol, global ozone depletion (not just Antarctic) would be at least 10 times worse than current levels by 2050." https://www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=79198

In other words,
it took an international treaty to make effective policy on global issues like ozone.

Sound familiar?

Ever heard of the Paris Agreement?
the Kyoto Protocol?

rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Nov 2, 2017 - 06:47pm PT
Ever heard of Commander Jody and the lost planet airmen...?
Lennox

climber
just southwest of the center of the universe
Nov 2, 2017 - 06:49pm PT


Whatever few benefits climate change may provide are nothing compared to the overwhelmingly destructive effects.

https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-positives-negatives-intermediate.htm




The link goes to an intermediate level explanation, but there is a tab for a more basic explanation that might still be a bit too fact and reason based for you Jody.
Craig Fry

Trad climber
So Cal.
Nov 3, 2017 - 02:29pm PT
Craig Fry

Trad climber
So Cal.
Nov 3, 2017 - 02:32pm PT
The Republicans may have trouble burying their heads in the sand after the Trump Administration's own report declaring climate change as real and a danger to our Nation.



Trump’s White House just declared that humans are responsible for all recent warming

They approved a report finding Trump's climate policies would devastate America

Joe Romm Nov 3, 2017, 2:24 pm

https://thinkprogress.org/trump-national-climate-assessment-9ae0781f7a9a/

On Friday, the Trump administration released the congressionally mandated National Climate Assessment, the “authoritative assessment of the science of climate change, with a focus on the United States,” as the report states.

What’s so stunning about the 600-page report, the work of scientists from 13 federal agencies, is that the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) oversaw the final review and clearance process of the report — and yet the report details just how dangerous the Trump administration’s policy of climate science denial is to Americans.


The National Climate Assessment (NCA) projects a devastated America — widespread Dust-Bowlification, 18°F Arctic warming, sea levels rising a foot a decade — on our current path of unrestricted carbon pollution. The report makes clear just how grave a threat are Trump’s plans to abandon the Paris climate deal, undo Obama-era climate rules, and boost carbon pollution.

Indeed, the report explicitly states that if governments don’t meet their Paris targets, and then go beyond them, catastrophic impacts would be inevitable.

The report “indicates that a path of inaction will truly lead to disastrous climate change impacts,” as climatologist Michael Mann said in an email to ThinkProgress, confirming a point he made when the New York Times published the leaked final draft in August. “Sadly, the Trump presidency has steered the U.S. toward this path.”


“Based on extensive evidence… it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century,” explains the NCA, the most comprehensive and detailed report ever done on climate change and its specific impact on America (emphasis in original).

“For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extant of the observational evidence,” notes the report, which was peer-reviewed by the National Academy of Sciences. “This period is now the warmest in the history of modern civilization.”
cliffhanger

Trad climber
California
Nov 3, 2017 - 03:04pm PT
Thanks Craig. Here's the entire report:

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

Southwest USA:

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/southwest

Future Climate Change:

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/future-climate-change
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 3, 2017 - 04:53pm PT
if only trumpy could read more than 140 characters, he would have sent the authors to Gitmo.
yosemite 5.9

climber
santa cruz
Nov 3, 2017 - 07:25pm PT
Actually the report projects 1 foot to 4 feet in sea level rise in eighty years. This is not 1 foot per decade. You need to be careful about how people misrepresent scientific reports.

It's called fake news.
Lennox

climber
just southwest of the center of the universe
Nov 7, 2017 - 09:19am PT
Syria (Syriasly?) signed the Paris Accord today.

That leaves the U.S. as the only country on planet earth—196 to 1–that is not in agreement.



thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 7, 2017 - 10:12pm PT
no seriously, let's go climbing at that new place tomorrow. it is only an hour's drive.
yosemite 5.9

climber
santa cruz
Nov 11, 2017 - 05:48pm PT
A popular Midwest saying is "Everybody talks about the weather but nobody does anything about it"

I grew up in Nebraska, which has the greatest range of all of the states from coldest to hottest. Usually a few -10 days in the winter and few days above 100 in the summer.

We got used to it. We had no choice. In the 1970's Time magazine had a cover that stated that scientists were concerned that we were entering a mini ice age. So much for that scientific thought.

Here's a link to lowest and highest temperatures by state. It surprises me how many are 30 to 40 degrees below zero. Arizone experienced -40 in 1971 according to this link. Other sites that I have looked show similar information.

Extreme cold kills people. It doesn't cause the damage of hurricanes or drought that I know of. But to some extent, some people may be relieved that global warming has perhaps reduced the risk of extreme cold where they live. At least those people older enough to have experience extreme cold.

I have had mild frostbite to the point of losing feeling several times. It can be dangerous. Is your house ready for -10 or lower?

https://www.accuracyproject.org/recordtemps.html

I understand there are negative consequences to global warming. But there may be some advantages as well.

monolith

climber
state of being
Nov 12, 2017 - 06:29am PT
Sheesh! Time magazine hardly represents the science in the 70's.

Look at the science literature, not the popular media.

yosemite 5.9

climber
santa cruz
Nov 12, 2017 - 04:26pm PT
Monolith, I doubt that you know the science of the 70's
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Nov 12, 2017 - 05:00pm PT
I understand there are negative consequences to global warming. But there may be some advantages as well.
-- yosemite 5.9

There's always somebody out there who says climate change will help with their tan.

Just look at how tan those folks are out in NE Texas!
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 12, 2017 - 10:22pm PT
yose5.9:
Now that Monolith showed you how silly it is to repeat the alt news item about that Time magazine article,
When are you going to admit that you have No Scientific Basis to justify denialism?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 12, 2017 - 10:43pm PT
Monolith, I doubt that you know the science of the 70's

and you do? perhaps you could quote your sources for the assertion that an ice age was "predicted."

There was a considerable amount of climate research in the 1970s, though it was not thought to be reliable enough to predict future climate.

Of the important issues of the time were the role of aerosols and CO2, and in particular the decrease in global mean temperature from the end of WWII to the 70s, attributed to aerosols from burning dirty fossil fuels.

But maybe you know better... please let us in on the source of your knowledge.
yosemite 5.9

climber
santa cruz
Nov 16, 2017 - 06:27pm PT
"In the 1970's Time magazine had a cover that stated that scientists were concerned that we were entering a mini ice age. So much for that scientific thought."

Hi Ed, I am guessing that you were addressing me. I did not characterize the above as a prediction. It was expressed as a concern. I gave you my sources, Time magazine and a record of low temperatures by state that seems to be available from different web sites.

In response to Splater's post I do not deny global warming. I never said that. But I did say that there is the disadvantage of death by extreme cold. It applies to humans and animals. Wildlife in the Midwest has repeatedly been largley killed off by extremely cold winters in the 1900's and more recently in a rarely extreme winter around 2010.

I did not get frostbite on some mountain. I got it on the plains of the Midwest in the late 1900's. There is a world out there beyond comfortable Santa Cruz, California K-man.

Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 16, 2017 - 06:30pm PT
troll on you crazy deniamond

-- wish you were here in realityland
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 17, 2017 - 09:49am PT
I gave you my sources, Time magazine and a record of low temperatures by state that seems to be available from different web sites.

In the 1970's Time magazine had a cover that stated that scientists were concerned that we were entering a mini ice age. So much for that scientific thought.

except that you did not give the issue or link the cover. There is, apparently, some question as to whether or not the cover actually exists. That would be settled if you gave the actual citation for the article.

At that time in the 1970's the global surface temperature had been decreasing since the 1940s. Various climate science models implicated the increased aerosol content of the atmosphere brought on by the use of "dirty" fossil fuels. The role of aerosols in climate was not well known.

The transition to "cleaner" fossil fuels greatly reduced the aerosol exhaust into the atmosphere, and the subsequent response of climate was the dramatic rise in average global surface temperature we see today, driven by the CO2 increases.

There was no scientific "consensus" in the 1970s that we were headed into an ice-age. The events that "trigger" an ice-age are still an active area of scientific research.
monolith

climber
state of being
Nov 17, 2017 - 01:22pm PT
The cover was a hoax, gobbled up by the likes of 5.9
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 17, 2017 - 05:24pm PT
Sounds like one of chuff or rick's fables. So far polar ice continues to shrink, as is predicted by real science for the next 100-500 years per business as usual scenarios.
monolith

climber
state of being
Nov 17, 2017 - 05:50pm PT
xCon may be thinking of the north atlantic slowdown caused by melting ice that is expected to cause climate disruption in areas of the northern hemisphere. But it's not expected to cause an ice age as depicted in the movie The Day After Tomorrow. What does cause ice ages are the Milankovitch cycles.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 17, 2017 - 07:53pm PT
I think the latest studies indicate the the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is not likely to undergo a rapid change under current climate change scenarios.

The Milankovitch cycles are not entirely understood as a trigger for the ice ages. The devil is in the details, as is usual for science.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 23, 2017 - 07:52pm PT
that would be an industry counting on technology that doesn't exist. And so far has been close to a fraud.

Or we could just provide a lot more disincentive to burn fossil fuels, which is highly proven in the long run to result in a switch to cleaner alternatives.

A disincentive to CO2 could also be generalized to provide an incentive for net carbon capture, if someone did have a workable plan.
zBrown

Ice climber
Dec 1, 2017 - 07:55pm PT
This may be it

Lies and rubbish

https://timedotcom.files.wordpress.com/2017/06/trumpcover1.jpg


Citing the cover of Time magazine as authority has been insightfully critiqued by Dylan


If I want to find out anything, I’m not going to read Time magazine, I’m not going to read Newsweek. I’m not going to read any of these magazines. I mean, because they’ve just got too much to lose by printing the truth. You know that….Really the truth is just a plain picture. A plain picture of, let’s say, a tramp vomiting in the sewer. You know, and next door to the picture Mr. Rockefeller or Mr. C. W. Jones on the subway going to work. You know, any kind of picture. Just make a collage of pictures.
Krease

Gym climber
the inferno
Dec 1, 2017 - 08:18pm PT
and to think, a reality-tv show personality is now commander in chief.
TomCochrane

Trad climber
Cascade Mountains and Monterey Bay
Dec 3, 2017 - 09:47pm PT
Killing the Biosphere to Fast-track Human Extinction

By Robert J. Burrowes

December 02, 2017 "Information Clearing House" - Several years ago in Cameroon, a country in West Africa, a Western Black Rhinoceros was killed. It was the last of its kind on Earth.

Hence, the Western Black Rhinoceros, the largest subspecies of rhinoceros which had lived for millions of years and was the second largest land mammal on Earth, no longer exists.

But while you have probably heard of the Western Black Rhinoceros, and may even have known of its extinction, did you know that on the same day that it became extinct, another 200 species of life on Earth also became extinct?

This is because the sixth mass extinction event in Earth’s history is now accelerating at an unprecedented rate with 200 species of plants, birds, animals, fish, amphibians, insects and reptiles being driven to extinction on a daily basis. And the odds are high that you have never even heard of any of them. For example, have you heard of the Christmas Island Pipistrelle, recently declared extinct? See ‘Christmas Island Pipistrelle declared extinct by IUCN’.

Apart from the 200 species extinctions each day however, and just to emphasize the catastrophic extent of this crisis, myriad local populations of many species are driven to extinction daily and millions of individual lifeforms are also killed. See ‘Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines’.

For a taste of the vast literature on this subject touching only on impacts in relation to insects, see ‘Death and Extinction of the Bees’, ‘Insectageddon: farming is more catastrophic than climate breakdown’ and ‘“Decimated”: Germany’s birds disappear as insect abundance plummets 76%’.

Is anything being done to end this omnicide (the destruction of all life)?

Not really, although there is plenty of rhetoric and limited action in some contexts as all bar a few committed individuals and organizations ignore this onslaught while even fewer take action that addresses the underlying cause and/or fundamental drivers of this killing. Unfortunately, most effort is still wasted on lobbying elites.

For example, in the latest example of the foolishness of lobbying elites to take action in our struggle to defend Earth’s biosphere, the European Union has again just renewed Monsanto’s licence to keep poisoning (and otherwise destroying) our world – see ‘German vote swings EU decision on 5-year glyphosate renewal’ – despite the already overwhelming evidence of the catastrophic consequences of doing so. See, for example, ‘Killing Us Softly – Glyphosate Herbicide or Genocide?’ and ‘GM Food Crops Illegally Growing in India: The Criminal Plan to Change the Genetic Core of the Nation’s Food System’.

Of course, massive poisoning of the biosphere is only one way to destroy it and while elites and their agents drive most of this destruction they nevertheless often rely on our complicity. To itemize just a few of these many techniques for destroying our biosphere in most of which we are complicit, consider the following. We destroy rainforests – see ‘Cycles of Wealth in Brazil’s Amazon: Gold, Lumber, Cattle and Now, Energy’ – we contaminate and privatize the fresh water – see ‘Groundwater drunk by BILLIONS of people may be contaminated by radioactive material spread across the world by nuclear testing in the 1950s’ and ‘Nestlé CEO Denies That Water is an Essential Human Right’– we overfish and pollute the oceans – see ‘New UN report finds marine debris harming more than 800 species, costing countries millions’– we eat meat despite the devastating impact of animal agriculture on Earth’s biosphere – see ‘The True Environmental Cost of Eating Meat’– we destroy the soil – see ‘Only 60 Years of Farming Left If Soil Degradation Continues’ – and we use our cars and air travel (along with our meat-eating) as key weapons in our destruction of Earth’s atmosphere and climate with atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide levels all breaking new records in 2016. See ‘Greenhouse Gas Bulletin’.

But if you think that is bad enough, did you know about the out-of-control methane releases into the atmosphere that we have triggered – see ‘7,000 underground gas bubbles poised to “explode” in Arctic’ and ‘Release of Arctic Methane “May Be Apocalyptic,” Study Warns’– and did you know that scientists at the University of Leicester warn that we are destroying the Earth’s oxygen? See ‘Global warming disaster could suffocate life on planet Earth, research shows’ and ‘The Extinction Event Gains Momentum’.

In addition, relying on our ignorance and our complicity, eliteskill vast areas of Earth’s biosphere through war and other military violence (without even considering the unique, and possibly life-ending, devastation if the recently and repeatedly threatened nuclear war eventuates) – see, for example, the Toxic Remnants of War Project and the film ‘Scarred Lands & Wounded Lives’ – subject it to uncontrolled releases of radioactive contamination – see ‘Fukushima Radiation Has Contaminated The Entire Pacific Ocean – And It’s Going To Get Worse’– and use geoengineering to wage war on its climate, environment and ultimately ourselves. See, for example, ‘Engineered Climate Cataclysm: Hurricane Harvey’, ‘Planetary Weapons and Military Weather Modification: Chemtrails, Atmospheric Geoengineering and Environmental Warfare’, ‘Chemtrails: Aerosol and Electromagnetic Weapons in the Age of Nuclear War’ and ‘The Ultimate Weapon of Mass Destruction: “Owning the Weather” for Military Use’.

Of course, all of this is done at immediate cost to human beings, particularly indigenous peoples – see, for example, ‘Five ways climate change harms indigenous people’– and those who are in the worst position to resist – see ‘Global Poverty: How the Rich Eat the Poor and the World: The Big Lies’ – but elites know they can ignore our lobbying and occasional, tokenistic and disorganized protests while relying on the fear and powerlessness of most of us to ensure that we do nothing strategic to fight back.

And given the unrelenting criminal onslaught of the insane global elite – see ‘The Global Elite is Insane’ – directed against Earth’s biosphere, together with the elite’s many sycophantic academic, bureaucratic, business, legal, media, military, political and scientific servants who deny science and threaten human survival in the interests of short-term personal privilege, corporate profit and social control, it is long past time when those of us who are genuinely concerned should be developing and implementing a strategy that recognises the elite and its many agents as opponents to be resisted with a careful and powerful strategy.

So, in essence, the problem is this: Human beings are destroying the biosphere and driving countless lifeforms, including ourselves, to extinction. And there is little strategic resistance to this onslaught.

There is, of course, an explanation for this and this explanation needs to be understood if we are to implement a strategy to successfully halt our omnicidal assault on Earth’s biosphere in time to save ourselves and as many other species as possible in a viable ecological setting.

This is because if you want to solve a problem or resolve a conflict, then it is imperative to know and act on the truth. Otherwise you are simply acting on a delusion and whatever you do can have no desirable outcome for yourself, others, the Earth or its multitude of creatures. Of course, most people are content to live in delusion: it averts the need to courageously, intelligently and conscientiously analyse what is truly happening and respond to it powerfully. In short: it makes life ‘easier’ (that is, less frightening) even if problems keep recurring and conflicts are suppressed, to flare up periodically, rather than resolved.

And, of course, this is how elites want it. They do not want powerful individuals or organizations interfering with their scheme to (now rapidly) consolidate their militarized control over the world’s populations and resources.

This is why, for example, elites love ‘democracy’: it ensures disempowerment of the population. How so? you might ask. The fundamental flaw of democracy is that people have been deceived into surrendering their personal power to act responsibly – in relation to the important social, political, economic, environment and climate issues of the day – to elected ‘representatives’ in government who then fearfully represent the elites who actually control them (whether through financial incentives, electoral support or other means), assuming they aren’t members of the elite themselves and simply represent elite priorities out of shared interest (as does Donald Trump).

And because we delegate responsibility to those powerless politicians who fearfully (or out of shared interest) act in response to elite bidding, the best scientific information in relation to the state of the Earth is simply ignored or rejected while conservative ‘scientific warnings’ advocating ‘strategies’ that must fail are widely circulated. See, for example, ‘World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice’.

So this widespread failure to respond thoughtfully and powerfully is a fundamental reason that we are killing the biosphere and destroying life on Earth. Too few humans are willing to accept personal responsibility to understand why the violence is occurring and to participate in a carefully designed strategy to avert our own extinction, let alone save countless other species from premature entry into the fossil record. It is easier to leave responsibility to others. See ‘The Delusion “I Am Not Responsible”’.

And, clearly, time is running out, unless you are gullible enough to believe the elite-sponsored delusion that promotes inaction, and maximizes corporate profits in the meantime, because we are supposed to have until ‘the end of the century’. Far from it, however. As some courageous scientists, invariably denied access to mainstream news outlets, explain it: near-term human extinction is now the most likely outcome.

One of these scientists is Professor Guy McPherson who offers compelling evidence that human beings will be extinct by 2030. For a summary of the evidence of this, which emphasizes the usually neglected synergistic impacts of many of these destructive trends (some of which are noted above) and cites many references, listen to the lecture by Professor McPherson on ‘Climate Collapse and Near Term Human Extinction’.

Why 2030? Because, according to McPherson, the ‘perfect storm’ of environmental assaults that we are now inflicting on the Earth, including the 28 self-reinforcing climate feedback loops that have already been triggered, is so far beyond the Earth’s capacity to absorb, that there will be an ongoing succession of terminal breakdowns of key ecological systems and processes – that is, habitat loss – over the next decade that it will precipitate the demise of homo sapiens sapiens.

In relation to the climate alone, another scientist, Professor Kevin Anderson, who is Deputy Director of the UK’s premier climate modelling institution, the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, has warned that emissions are now out of control and we are heading for a world that is 6 degrees hotter; he pointed out that even the International Energy Agency, and conservative organisations like it, are warning that we are on track for a 4 degree increase (on the pre-industrial level) by 2040. He also accused too many climate scientists of keeping quiet about the unrealistic assessments put out by governments. See ‘What They Won’t Tell You About Climate Catastrophe’.

So be wary of putting any credence on ‘official’ explanations, targets and ‘action-plans’ in relation to the climate that are approved by large gatherings, whether governmental or scientific. Few people have the courage to tell the truth when it guarantees unpopularity and can readily manifest as career-extinction and social and scientific marginalization.

As an aside, it is perhaps worth mentioning that most people have long forgotten that a decade ago (when the global temperature was .8 degrees above the pre-industrial level) it had been suggested that a decrease in global temperature to not more than .5 degrees above the pre-industrial level was actually necessary to achieve a safe climate, with the Arctic intact (although there was no clear feasible method for humans to reduce the global temperature to this level with any speed). Sadly we have made little progress in the past decade apart from to keep raising the ‘acceptable’ limit (whether to 2 degrees or ‘only’ 1.5). Most humans love to delude themselves to avoid dealing with the truth.

Hence, for those of us committed to responding powerfully to this crisis, the fundamental question is this: Why, precisely, are human beings destroying life on Earth? Without an accurate answer to this question, any strategy to address this crisis must be based on either guesswork or ideology.

So let us briefly consider some possible answers to this question.

Some people argue that it is genetic: human beings are innately violent and, hence, destructive behaviors towards themselves, others and the Earth are ‘built-in’ to the human organism; for that reason, violence cannot be prevented or controlled and humans must endlessly destroy.

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However, any argument that human beings are genetically-predisposed to inflict violence is easily refuted by the overwhelming evidence of human cooperation throughout the millennia and there are endless examples, ranging from the interpersonal to the international, of humans cooperating to resolve conflict without violence, even when these conflicts involve complex issues and powerful vested interests. There are also plentiful examples of humans, particularly indigenous communities, living in harmony with, rather than destroying, nature.

Other analysts argue that human violence and destructiveness are manifestations of political, economic and/or social structures – such as patriarchy, capitalism and the state, depending on the perspective – and while I agree that (massive) structural violence actually occurs, I do not believe that these structures, by themselves, constitute an adequate explanation of the cause of violence.

This is simply because any structural explanation cannot account for violence in all contexts (including the violence that led to creation of the structure in the first place) or explain why it doesn’t happen in some contexts where a particular perspective indicates that it should.

So is there another plausible explanation for human violence? And can we do anything about it? Let me offer an explanation and a way forward that also takes advantage of the insights of those traditions that have critiqued structural violence in its many forms.

I have been researching why human beings are violent since 1966 and the evidence has convinced me that the origin of all human violence is the violence inflicted by adults on children under the guise of what sociologists call ‘socialization’. This violence takes many forms – what I call ‘visible’, ‘invisible’ and ‘utterly invisible’ violence – and it creates enormously damaged individuals who then personally inflict violence on themselves, those around them (including their own children) and the Earth, while creating, participating in, defending and/or benefiting from structures of violence and exploitation. For a full explanation of this point, see ‘Why Violence?’ and ‘Fearless Psychology and Fearful Psychology: Principles and Practice’.

Hence, in my view, the evidence is overwhelming that if we want to end human violence, whether inflicted on ourselves, others or the Earth, then the central feature of our strategy must be to end adult violence against children. See ‘My Promise to Children’. I claim that this must be ‘the central feature of our strategy’ for the simple reason that each damaged child grows up to become a willing and active perpetrator of violence when, if they were not so damaged, they would be powerful agents of peace, justice and sustainability committed to resisting violence and exploitation in all contexts until it is eliminated.

This profound evolutionary inheritance – to be an individual of integrity who consciously chooses and lives out their own unique, powerful and nonviolent life path – has been denied to virtually all of us because humans endlessly terrorize their children into mindless obedience and social conformity, leaving them powerless to access and live out their conscience.

And this makes it very easy for elites: By then using a combination of our existing fear, indoctrination (via the education system, corporate media and religion) and intimidation (via the police, legal and prison systems), sometimes sweetened with a few toys and trinkets, national elites maintain social control and maximize corporate profits by coercing the rest of us to waste our lives doing meaningless work, in denial of our Selfhood, in the corporate-controlled economy.

As I implied above, however, we need not be content with just working to end violence against children. We can also work to end all other manifestations of violence – including violence against women, indigenous peoples, people of color, Islamic and working class people, and violence against the Earth – but recognize that if we tackle this violence without simultaneously tackling violence at its source, we fundamentally undermine our effort to tackle these other manifestations of violence too.

Moreover, tackling structural violence (such as capitalism) by using direct violence cannot work either. Because violence always feeds off fear it will always proliferate and re-manifest, whether as direct, structural, cultural or ecological violence, however beneficial any short-term outcome may appear.

Importantly then, apart from understanding and addressing the fundamental cause of this crisis, we must implement a comprehensive strategy that takes into account and addresses each and every component of it. There is no point working to achieve a single objective that might address one problem no matter how important that particular problem might be. The crisis is too far advanced to settle for piecemeal action.

Hence, if you wish to tackle all of this violence simultaneously, you might consider joining those participating in the comprehensive strategy simply explained in ‘The Flame Tree Project to Save Life on Earth’. If you wish to tackle violence in a particular context, direct, structural or otherwise, consider using the strategic approach outlined in Nonviolent Campaign Strategy or Nonviolent Defense/Liberation Strategy.

And if you would like to publicly commit yourself to participate in the effort to end all human violence, you can do so by signing the online pledge of ‘The People’s Charter to Create a Nonviolent World’.

Killing the biosphere is the most effective way to destroy life on Earth because it destroys the ecological foundation – the vast array of incredibly diverse and interrelated habitats – on which organisms depend for their survival. And we are now very good at this killing which is why averting human extinction is already going to be extraordinarily difficult.

Hence, unless and until you make a conscious personal decision to participate strategically in the struggle to save life on Earth, you will be one of those individuals who kills the biosphere as a byproduct of living without awareness and commitment: A person who simply over-consumes their way to extinction.

So next time you ponder the fate of humanity, which is inextricably tied to the fate of the Earth, it might be worth considering the unparalleled beauty of what Earth has generated. See, for example, ‘Two White Giraffes Seen in Kenyan Conservation Area’.

And as you do this, ask yourself how hard you are willing to fight to save life on Earth.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Dec 6, 2017 - 02:07pm PT
I gotta say, I totally disagree with DMT with respect to "shill". I think that Malemute's links are absolutely a service to this thread -- just like his links on the climate change thread. It's not my style of posting, but I appreciate his obvious diligence for interesting and thoughtful content
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Dec 9, 2017 - 08:05pm PT
Malemute , Hartouni and others who post this science...Thanks...Trumps main concern is getting stroked by the Kochs and the instant gratification associated with his boys club...Nero...? For sure...
ß Î Ø T Ç H

Boulder climber
ne'er–do–well
Dec 11, 2017 - 09:13pm PT
[Click to View YouTube Video]
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Dec 12, 2017 - 11:00am PT
Flying vs driving in typical cars
Traveling either way has roughly similar climate impact per distance.

As I posted before

http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=2899333&msg=3001004#msg3001004

http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=2899333&msg=2955450#msg2955450
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Dec 12, 2017 - 12:39pm PT
"hypocrisy" ??

Nope. Everyone burns some fossil fuels. You would have to know how many miles per year and lots of other things to know total GHG emissions. This is just rationalization #91 in the denier handbook. We all make different choices, mostly based on economic decisions. Personal choices make only a small impact on saving the climate. Only societal decisions as a whole can make much impact on issues which are a tragedy of the commons. If enough people are concerned and some make personal green choices, this may help convince society to change policy enough to affect everyone's choices. A societal choice would be ways to disincentivize GHG emissions, and incentivize green alternatives.
Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Dec 12, 2017 - 01:05pm PT
Lol.....

“The fastest decline in arctic sea ice in over 1500 years.”



http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card
Krease

Gym climber
the inferno
Dec 12, 2017 - 09:24pm PT
hey NWO2? as soon as the machines replace fukwads like you, the better. Your boy drumpf just got his ass handed to him. I think his golf club needs shined.
AndyMan

Sport climber
CA
Dec 13, 2017 - 02:13am PT
Try a random number generator in Excel.

The longer you wait, the more extreme it gets!
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Dec 16, 2017 - 07:47am PT
Most of the fires in CA this year were started by homeless tweakers.

No ignition = no fire.

The explosion in the homeless tweaker population has nothing to do with the changing climate.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Dec 16, 2017 - 08:51am PT
Chaz...Downed power lines from high winds are also suspected in some of the fires...Not just tweakers....rj
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Dec 16, 2017 - 09:21am PT
The fires being started was not the problem, it was the hurricane- force winds that have lasted for an unusual amount of time and force, that caused the fire problem to be as bad as it's been.
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Dec 16, 2017 - 09:42am PT
Santa Ana winds have always blown in December, at least for as long as I can remember.

I grew up in Fontana, on an east-west street at a T intersection with a N-S street. Every year, on the trash day after Christmas, the neighbors' used wrapping paper would blow out of their trash cans and pile up on the front of our house. That happened every year I lived there, going back to 1970.

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 16, 2017 - 09:51am PT
Most of the fires in CA this year were started by homeless tweakers.

and you could provide references to support this? or is it just something you made up?
monolith

climber
state of being
Dec 16, 2017 - 10:16am PT
Has the vegetation been this dry in December as always Chaz?

If you look at the historical average temp, CA has warmed considerably which means dryer vegetation.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 16, 2017 - 10:37am PT
I think that the vegetation this year, at least the grasses, were much more abundant than usual, given the wet winter of last year, and the lack of rain this year has dried it out and providing an ignition source.

So whether or not this fire year was a result of "climate change" is an interesting hypothesis to pursue, at least if you want to consider the attribution as science.

I lived in Claremont from 1964 to 1972, and indeed the Santa Anas blew during that time, no doubt about it. I also recall those winds blowing the smog out of the San Gabriel valley and providing the then season view of the mountains. A governor at the time said that the scene had always been obscured, that the aboriginal peoples had complained about it, and that it had nothing to do with car exhaust created smog. Also, the scene of snow on the front range, about 5,000 ft above my house, was pretty common. How is that scene now?
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Dec 16, 2017 - 04:26pm PT
So in 2012 the skeptics were convinced that global warming had stopped. This was one of their main arguements.
What happened since then:
2014 was the hottest year in the current record.
2015 was warmer.
2016 set a new record.
2017 looks like it will be among the warmest.
So they have no credibility as 4 in a row is not a fluke but a sign that change is kicking in big time.

We aren't the cause?
Please let me know of another explanation.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Dec 16, 2017 - 09:32pm PT
These climate change threads are little more than tragedy porn circle jerks

Woe is us. 😱😢😥
Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Dec 22, 2017 - 09:49am PT
Abstract

As a result of global increases in both temperature and specific humidity, heat stress is projected to intensify throughout the 21st century. Some of the regions most susceptible to dangerous heat and humidity combinations are also among the most densely populated. Consequently, there is the potential for widespread exposure to wet bulb temperatures that approach and in some cases exceed postulated theoretical limits of human tolerance by mid- to late-century. We project that by 2080 the relative frequency of present-day extreme wet bulb temperature events could rise by a factor of 100–250 (approximately double the frequency change projected for temperature alone) in the tropics and parts of the mid-latitudes, areas which are projected to contain approximately half the world’s population. In addition, population exposure to wet bulb temperatures that exceed recent deadly heat waves may increase by a factor of five to ten, with 150–750 million person-days of exposure to wet bulb temperatures above those seen in today’s most severe heat waves by 2070–2080. Under RCP 8.5, exposure to wet bulb temperatures above 35 ◦C—the theoretical limit for human tolerance—could exceed a million person-days per year by 2080. Limiting emissions to follow RCP 4.5 entirely eliminates exposure to that extreme threshold. Some of the most affected regions, especially Northeast India and coastal West Africa, currently have scarce cooling infrastructure, relatively low adaptive capacity, and rapidly growing populations. In the coming decades heat stress may prove to be one of the most widely experienced and directly dangerous aspects of climate change, posing a severe threat to human health, energy infrastructure, and outdoor activities ranging from agricultural production to military training.

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa00e/pdf
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 22, 2017 - 04:06pm PT
some people say "we" will have to adapt to climate change, that people in bad places will just move to better places... of course it seems that is already happening, and the people in the places they are trying to move to are not happy about it.

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/358/6370/1610

Asylum applications respond to temperature fluctuations

Anouch Missirian, Wolfram Schlenker

Science
22 Dec 2017:
Vol. 358, Issue 6370, pp. 1610-1614
DOI: 10.1126/science.aao0432

Abstract
International negotiations on climate change, along with recent upsurges in migration across the Mediterranean Sea, have highlighted the need to better understand the possible effects of climate change on human migration—in particular, across national borders. Here we examine how, in the recent past (2000–2014), weather variations in 103 source countries translated into asylum applications to the European Union, which averaged 351,000 per year in our sample. We find that temperatures that deviated from the moderate optimum (~20°C) increased asylum applications in a nonlinear fashion, which implies an accelerated increase under continued future warming. Holding everything else constant, asylum applications by the end of the century are predicted to increase, on average, by 28% (98,000 additional asylum applications per year) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenario 4.5 and by 188% (660,000 additional applications per year) under RCP 8.5 for the 21 climate models in the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP).

Nick Danger

Ice climber
Arvada, CO
Dec 23, 2017 - 09:36am PT
I have mostly avoided posting on this topic on "the Taco" primarily because I weary of the verbal sparring between climate skeptics and folks who are somewhat better informed. That being said, I am going to indulge in a few observations and opinions of my own.

"We are seeing unprecedented changes in mean annual temperatures. Well, not actually. During the two previous glacial maximums in the middle and late Pleistocene Dansgaard-Oeschger events would involve increases in Mean annual temperatures in the northern hemisphere of 4 to 5 degrees centigrade over the course of 4 to 5 decades. These temperature signals would take, on average, 800 to 900 years to dampen out to the previously normal global annual temperature average. Researchers are not certain what caused these D/O events, although there are several intriguing hypotheses. Despite our lack of a full understanding about the cause of D/O events, one take-home message is the order of magnitude difference in the time the initial temperature excursion occurred and the time it took that temperature excursion to return to normal. That suggests that perhaps as much as a thousand year will be required for the present temperature excursion to un it's course.

Some estimates of the dwell time for CO2 in the atmosphere is up to 2,000 years, other estimates are somewhat longer. That means that what we have put into the atmosphere to date is going to be there for at least a couple of millennia. Couple that with the lag time between a particular atmospheric CO2 concentration and the mean annual temperature that is in equilibrium with that concentration, and temps will continue to rise for awhile even if we were able atmospheric CO2 concentrations at their present level, which obviously we are not going to do.

My conclusion is that the climate warming train has already left the station. From this point going forward mankind's challenge will be to learn to live in a warmer world instead of halting the changes that are already in the works.

Considering that Homo Sapiens have already lived though two glacial maximums and two interglacial periods, humankind will also survive whatever anthropogenic climate change serves up, although it is increasingly unlikely that our current culture/civilization will survive intact.

Planet earth has experienced climate extremes of "snowball Earth wherein 80 to 90% of the planet was covered in ice, and "hot house Earth" wherein there was no surface ice on the planet. It i very unlikely that anthropogenic climate change will approach either of those extremes.

Finally, as an earth scientist, I feel somewhat blessed to be able bear witness to both a mass extinction event (there have been many of these in Earth's history) as well as a marine transgression (and there have been even more of these). So, it's not all bad.



Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Dec 27, 2017 - 02:57pm PT
and you could provide references to support this? or is it just something you made up?


Here's one:

http://beta.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-skirball-fire-cause-20171212-story.html

Here's another:

https://www.sbsun.com/2017/12/18/little-mountain-fire-in-san-bernardino-blamed-on-homeless-encampment-fire/

And another:

https://www.pe.com/2017/12/21/riverside-fire-responds-to-reports-of-brush-fire-in-santa-ana-river-bottom/

And another one, burning right now:

https://www.pe.com/2017/12/27/santa-ana-river-bottom-fire-breaks-out-in-riverside-again/#comments

All in the past month. I can't find a local fire that wasn't started by the homeless tweakers.

The last story is funny, because it cites the AQMD ban on wood burning fires for the *spare the air* day. Nobody thought to tell the homeless tweakers.

monolith

climber
state of being
Dec 27, 2017 - 05:10pm PT
The Thomas fire, that dwarfs them all, is strongly linked to downed power lines during a high wind event.

And no matter how they start, they will spread faster due to the drier conditions of a warming California.
Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Dec 29, 2017 - 08:44am PT
In the East, it could be the COLDEST New Year’s Eve on record. Perhaps we could use a little bit of that good old Global Warming that our Country, but not other countries, was going to pay TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS to protect against. Bundle up!

Donald Trump



It’s called climate change related extreme weather events.

What about the hurricanes? What about the wildfires? What an idiot.
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Dec 29, 2017 - 11:49am PT
A recent article suggests the current cold weather in Canada and NE US may be due to the current warmer than normal conditions in the Arctic and its effect on polar winds
Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Dec 29, 2017 - 02:04pm PT
^ ^ ^ ^

Yeah, hmm, hey Donald, on that map there, what’s up with all that red and orange NORTH of that blue area, huh?
Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Dec 29, 2017 - 05:17pm PT
The pieces are falling into place:




The ORANGE Revolution took place in Ukraine.
The anomalous increases on global temperature maps are indicated by the color ORANGE.

VLADIMIR PUTIN vigorously opposed the ORANGE Revolution.

VLADIMIR PUTIN’s Russia has vast oil reserves they would like to exploit to gain greater geopolitical power.

Economic sanctions on VLADIMIR PUTIN’s Russia in response to Russian behavior since the ORANGE Revolution have prevented full exploitation of Russian oil reserves.

VLADIMIR PUTIN helped elect an ORANGELY pigmented candidate who supports the easing of sanctions on VLADIMIR PUTIN’s Russia.

The easing of sanctions will accelerate global warming and increase ORANGE areas on climate temperature anomaly maps.

In order to do his patron, VLADIMIR PUTIN’s bidding, the ORANGE one must convince the electorate that global warming is FAKE NEWS.

Therefore the color ORANGE IS FAKE NEWS!








BUT Donald Trump is ORANGE.

Therefore Donald Trump is FAKE NEWS!





??????????
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 5, 2018 - 07:31pm PT
Not sure how rising plant fuel is causing deoxigenation. Seems like a bit of a stretch.
Pet alarmist theory of the month?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 5, 2018 - 08:12pm PT
from the Science article:

Causes of oxygen decline
Global warming as a cause of oxygen loss in the open ocean

The discovery of widespread oxygen loss in the open ocean during the past 50 years depended on repeated hydrographic observations that revealed oxygen declines at locations ranging from the northeast Pacific (29) and northern Atlantic (30) to tropical oceans (2). Greenhouse gas–driven global warming is the likely ultimate cause of this ongoing deoxygenation in many parts of the open ocean (31). For the upper ocean over the period 1958–2015, oxygen and heat content are highly correlated with sharp increases in both deoxygenation and ocean heat content, beginning in the mid-1980s (32).

Ocean warming reduces the solubility of oxygen. Decreasing solubility is estimated to account for ~15% of current total global oxygen loss and [greater than] 50% of the oxygen loss in the upper 1000 m of the ocean (9, 33). Warming also raises metabolic rates, thus accelerating the rate of oxygen consumption. Therefore, decomposition of sinking particles occurs faster, and remineralization of these particles is shifted toward shallower depths (34), resulting in a spatial redistribution but not necessarily a change in the magnitude of oxygen loss.

Intensified stratification may account for the remaining 85% of global ocean oxygen loss by reducing ventilation—the transport of oxygen into the ocean interior—and by affecting the supply of nutrients controlling production of organic matter and its subsequent sinking out of the surface ocean. Warming exerts a direct influence on thermal stratification and indirectly enhances salinity-driven stratification through its effects on ice melt and precipitation. Increased stratification alters the mainly wind-driven circulation in the upper few hundred meters of the ocean and slows the deep overturning circulation (9). Reduced ventilation, which may also be influenced by decadal to multidecadal oscillations in atmospheric forcing patterns (35), has strong subsurface manifestations at relatively shallow ocean depths (100 to 300 m) in the low- to mid-latitude oceans and less pronounced signatures down to a few thousand meters at high latitudes. Oxygen declines closer to shore have also been found in some systems, including the California Current and lower Saint Lawrence Estuary, where the relative strength of various currents have changed and remineralization has increased (36, 37).

There is general agreement between numerical models and observations about the total amount of oxygen loss in the surface ocean (38). There is also consensus that direct solubility effects do not explain the majority of oceanic oxygen decline (31). However, numerical models consistently simulate a decline in the total global ocean oxygen inventory equal to only about half that of the most recent observation-based estimate and also predict different spatial patterns of oxygen decline or, in some cases, increase (9, 31, 39). These discrepancies are most marked in the tropical thermocline (40). This is problematic for predictions of future deoxygenation, as these regions host large open-ocean OMZs [oxygen-minimum zones], where a further decline in oxygen levels could have large impacts on ecosystems and biogeochemistry (Fig. 2A). It is also unclear how much ocean oxygen decline can be attributed to alterations in ventilation versus respiration. Mechanisms other than greenhouse gas–driven global warming may be at play in the observed ocean oxygen decline that are not well represented in current ocean models. For example, internal oscillations in the climate system, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, affect ventilation processes and, eventually, oxygen distributions (35).

Models predict that warming will strengthen winds that favor upwelling and the resulting transport of deeper waters onto upper slope and shelf environments in some coastal areas (41, 42), especially at high latitudes within upwelling systems that form along the eastern boundary of ocean basins (43). The predicted magnitude and direction of change is not uniform, however, either within individual large upwelling systems or among different systems. Upwelling in the southern Humboldt, southern Benguela, and northern Canary Eastern Boundary upwelling systems is predicted to increase in both duration and intensity by the end of the 21st century (43). Where the oxygen content of subsurface source waters declines, upwelling introduces water to the shelf that is both lower in oxygen and higher in CO₂. Along the central Oregon coast of the United States in 2006, for example, anoxic waters upwelled to depths of [less than] 50 m within 2 km of shore, persisted for 4 months, and resulted in large-scale mortality of benthic macro-invertebrates (11). There are no prior records of such severe oxygen depletion over the continental shelf or within the OMZ in this area (11).

Nutrient enrichment of coastal waters

Sewage discharges have been known to deplete oxygen concentrations in estuaries since at least the late 1800s (44), and by the mid 1900s the link to agricultural fertilizer runoff was discussed (45). Nevertheless, the number and severity of hypoxic sites has continued to increase (Fig. 2B). The human population has nearly tripled since 1950 (46). Agricultural production has greatly increased to feed this growing population and meet demands for increased consumption of animal protein, resulting in a 10-fold increase in global fertilizer use over the same period (47). Nitrogen discharges from rivers to coastal waters increased by 43% in just 30 years from 1970 to 2000 (48), with more than three times as much nitrogen derived from agriculture as from sewage (49).

Eutrophication occurs when nutrients (primarily N and P) and biomass from human waste and agriculture, as well as N deposition from fossil fuel combustion, stimulate the growth of algae and increase algal biomass. The enhanced primary and secondary production in surface waters increases the delivery rate of degradable organic matter to bottom waters where microbial decomposition by aerobic respiration consumes oxygen. Once oxygen levels are low, behavioral and biogeochemical feedbacks can hinder a return to higher-oxygen conditions (50). For example, burrowing invertebrates that introduce oxygen to sediments die or fail to recruit, and sediment phosphorus is released, fueling additional biological production in the water column and eventual increased oxygen consumption.

Coastal systems vary substantially in their susceptibility to developing low oxygen concentrations. Low rates of vertical exchange within the water column reduce rates of oxygen resupply (51), and long water-retention times favor the accumulation of phytoplankton biomass (14) and its eventual subsurface degradation. Chesapeake Bay develops hypoxia and anoxia that persist for several months during late spring through early autumn and cover up to 30% of the system area. In contrast, the nearby Delaware Bay, which has weaker stratification and a shorter retention time, does not develop hypoxia, in spite of similar nutrient loads (52). Manila Bay is adjacent to a megacity and also receives similar loads on an annual basis, but it becomes hypoxic principally during the wet southwest monsoon period, when rainfall increases nutrient loads and stratification (53).

Low oxygen in coastal waters and semi-enclosed seas can persist for minutes to thousands of years and may extend over spatial scales ranging from less than one to many thousands of square kilometers. Both local and remote drivers lead to temporal and spatial variations in hypoxia. Local weather can influence oxygen depletion in very shallow water through wind mixing and the effect of cloud cover on photosynthesis (54). At larger spatial scales, variations in wind direction and speed (55), precipitation and nutrient loads (56), sea surface temperature (57), and nutrient content of water masses transported into bottom layers of stratified coastal systems contribute to interannual and longer-period variations in hypoxic volume, duration, and rate of deoxygenation (14).

Climate change in coastal waters

Warming is predicted to exacerbate oxygen depletion in many nutrient-enriched coastal systems through mechanisms similar to those of the open ocean: increased intensity and duration of stratification, decreased oxygen solubility, and accelerated respiration (4, 58, 59). The current rate of oxygen decline in coastal areas exceeds that of the open ocean (60), however, likely reflecting the combined effects of increased warming of shallow water and higher concentrations of nutrients. Higher air temperatures can result in earlier onset and longer durations of hypoxia in eutrophic systems through effects on the seasonal timing of stratification and the rate of oxygen decline (58). An ensemble modeling study of the Baltic Sea projects declining oxygen under all but the most aggressive nutrient-reduction plans, owing to increased precipitation and consequent nutrient loads, decreased flux of oxygen from the atmosphere, and increased internal nutrient cycling. Even aggressive nutrient reduction is projected to yield far less benefit under climate change than under current conditions (61).

Because of regional variations in the effects of global warming on precipitation and winds, the rate and direction of change in oxygen content is expected to vary among individual coastal water bodies (4, 58). Where precipitation increases, both stratification and nutrient discharges are expected to increase, with the reverse occurring in regions where precipitation decreases. Changes in seasonal patterns of precipitation and rates of evaporation can also be important. Coastal wetlands that remove nutrients before they reach open water are predicted to be lost as sea levels rise, decreasing capacity to remove excess nitrogen, but the rate of wetland inundation and the ability of wetlands to migrate landward will vary.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Jan 11, 2018 - 05:47am PT
Good post up there Ed
WBraun

climber
Jan 11, 2018 - 07:25am PT
The true reality of climate change.

For every action, there is a reaction.

The modern gross physical actions have all been unharmoniously against the true interests of the living self itself.

Modern people are and remain ..... st00pid .....

Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 12, 2018 - 08:34am PT
I’m officially worried now. A Yellow-bellied Sea Snake was found on the sand at Newport Beach.
Them are some really poisonous little phukkers.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 12, 2018 - 10:08am PT
Gotta love the NOAA.

Here's their Winter temp forecast.


The temperature outlook shown above indicates above-average temperatures across the southern US, extending northward out West through the central Rockies and all the way up to Maine in the eastern part of the nation.

With that kind of accuracy for the three month outlook, I definitely trust their guestimates for the distant future.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 12, 2018 - 10:21am PT
it will be interesting to look at the end of February how the October 2017 prediction fared

keep an eye on this:
https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/data-snapshots/tempoutlook-monthly-cpc-2017-12-31?theme=Temperature
Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Jan 18, 2018 - 08:31pm PT
This map shows Earth’s average global temperature from 2013 to 2017, as compared to a baseline average from 1951 to 1980, according to an analysis by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Yellows, oranges, and reds show regions warmer than the baseline.

Credits: NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio





https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/long-term-warming-trend-continued-in-2017-nasa-noaa
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Jan 21, 2018 - 01:32pm PT
I agree with the gist of Mike Rowe's comments. Science is never "settled".

That said, those who ignore data - the mounds and mounds of it - are not exactly enlightened.

But, please buy a Tesla. My employer and I will thank you. The electrification of transportation will be the next driver for copper consumption, so have at it.
Climbert

climber
the t is silent
Jan 21, 2018 - 02:19pm PT
Yay Jody! I love how you are so smart! Did you see all the other smart people who are also so wise and post at WUWT? There are so many fact those elitists are covering up. The earth was cold 20000 years ago and will be obviously be cold again soon.
MAGA,
Bert
Climbert

climber
the t is silent
Jan 21, 2018 - 03:55pm PT
Oh don't be modest.
Only a smart man could seek out and find such genius as John Coleman, and Mike Rowe, the lonely voices of wisdom who know that the 99% consensus is an elitist sham. After all, who makes more profit, Exxon or NASA. Obviously Exxon is smarter.
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Jan 21, 2018 - 05:29pm PT
Hell, Jody, Ed has put some of it up on this thread.

The truth is out there.
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Jan 21, 2018 - 05:32pm PT
You deny the planet is heating up?
Climbert

climber
the t is silent
Jan 21, 2018 - 07:02pm PT
The consensus was 97% 5-10 years ago. Now it's up to -*edit: 98%. But we knew that, since we're smarter than 98% of climate scientists.
MAGA! Yay Exxon! Burn IT!

James L. Powell, a former member of the National Science Board and current executive director of the National Physical Science Consortium, analyzed published research on global warming and climate change between 1991 and 2012 and found that of the 13,950 articles in peer-reviewed journals, only 24 rejected anthropogenic global warming. A follow-up analysis looking at 2,258 peer-reviewed climate articles with 9,136 authors published between November 2012 and December 2013 revealed that only one of the 9,136 authors rejected anthropogenic global warming. His 2015 paper on the topic, covering 24,210 articles published by 69,406 authors during 2013 and 2014 found only five articles by four authors rejecting anthropogenic global warming. Over 99.99% of climate scientists did not reject AGW in their peer-reviewed research.

--------------


https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/

"Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver." (2009)2

American Association for the Advancement of Science
"The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society." (2006)3

American Chemical Society
"Comprehensive scientific assessments of our current and potential future climates clearly indicate that climate change is real, largely attributable to emissions from human activities, and potentially a very serious problem." (2004)4

American Geophysical Union
"Human‐induced climate change requires urgent action. Humanity is the major influence on the global climate change observed over the past 50 years. Rapid societal responses can significantly lessen negative outcomes." (Adopted 2003, revised and reaffirmed 2007, 2012, 2013)5

American Medical Association
"Our AMA ... supports the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s fourth assessment report and concurs with the scientific consensus that the Earth is undergoing adverse global climate change and that anthropogenic contributions are significant." (2013)6

American Meteorological Society
"It is clear from extensive scientific evidence that the dominant cause of the rapid change in climate of the past half century is human-induced increases in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbons, methane, and nitrous oxide." (2012)7

American Physical Society
"The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now." (2007)8

The Geological Society of America
"The Geological Society of America (GSA) concurs with assessments by the National Academies of Science (2005), the National Research Council (2006), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) that global climate has warmed and that human activities (mainly greenhouse‐gas emissions) account for most of the warming since the middle 1900s." (2006; revised 2010)9
SCIENCE ACADEMIES

International academies: Joint statement
"Climate change is real. There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world’s climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring. The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes to many physical and biological systems. It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities (IPCC 2001)." (2005, 11 international science academies)10

U.S. National Academy of Sciences
"The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify taking steps to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere." (2005)11
U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES


U.S. Global Change Research Program
"The global warming of the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced increases in heat-trapping gases. Human 'fingerprints' also have been identified in many other aspects of the climate system, including changes in ocean heat content, precipitation, atmospheric moisture, and Arctic sea ice." (2009, 13 U.S. government departments and agencies)12
INTERGOVERNMENTAL BODIES


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen.”13

“Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems.”14
OTHER RESOURCES

List of worldwide scientific organizations
The following page lists the nearly 200 worldwide scientific organizations that hold the position that climate change has been caused by human action.
http://opr.ca.gov/s_listoforganizations.php
U.S. agencies
The following page contains information on what federal agencies are doing to adapt to climate change.
http://www.c2es.org/docUploads/federal-agencies-adaptation.pdf
Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Jan 21, 2018 - 07:08pm PT
Bullshit Jody. What’s your source?

'Closing that consensus gap'

So, in 2011, Cook decided to do one more consensus study and promote the heck out of it. He collected 11,944 papers from the ISI Web of Science database that contained the words "global warming" or "global climate change." He and 11 Skeptical Science volunteers went through the abstracts and coded the authors' positions on anthropogenic global warming. Cook set it up as a video game, almost, where five abstracts would pop up on screen and the volunteers would code them and then hit "go." Then five more would pop up.

Green, the professor from Michigan Technological University, was the most prolific and coded about half the abstracts. "It was winter in Michigan so I'd just come home and do them, and my husband was out of town, sometimes I'd do 50, sometimes I'd do five, sometimes I'd do more," she said, sipping on iced hibiscus tea on a muggy day in Washington, D.C.

Green and her colleagues found 4,014 papers that endorsed global warming, rejected global warming or explicitly stated they did not hold a position on it. Of these papers, 97.2 percent endorsed the "consensus" that global warming is human caused.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-determine-the-scientific-consensus-on-global-warming/


https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-scientific-consensus-advanced.htm

The funny thing is that Jody probably identifies with Mike Rowe, but doesn’t realize he actually has more in common with Rebecca.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 21, 2018 - 07:53pm PT
interesting thing about the Black Hole comment above if one wonders how the idea came about.

Physics (and science) is not just a set of facts, but also the understanding that relates the facts together. That understanding provides a basis of prediction, which can be tested against observation. Black Holes are a consequence of General Relativity, and there is a tremendous amount of evidence of their existence. The existence of Black Holes is consistent with the recent gravity wave observations, for which there are no other explanations.

The behavior of the Earth's climate in response to increasing CO₂ levels and be viewed as a prediction which is consistent with the observations. The increasing levels of CO₂ are also consistent with the increased used of fossil fuels by humans.

Our understanding of the climate, while not complete, is consistent with what we observe going on today. This is the consensus of the scientific community, there is no doubt about that. No other explanation of the current climate change is consistent with the observations.

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 21, 2018 - 08:11pm PT
no, science is about whether or not the scientific explanation is consistent with observations, when an explanation is shown to be inconsistent with observation it is abandoned.

The consensus is that the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel use is consistent with the observations.

As such, that explanation is our best understanding of what is happening.

It has not been shown to be inconsistent. And there are no other explanations that are consistent with the observations.

Legates' analysis has been shown to have serious flaws in it.
Climbert

climber
the t is silent
Jan 21, 2018 - 08:33pm PT
"Legates' analysis has been shown to have serious flaws in it."

That's irrelevant to us skeptics and truthers. We only need to see it quoted on a blog and we accept it as what we know to be true. We only need to get ahold of one minor climate email mistake, and we will lynch the scientists. Can't you see that Exxon and Ford Raptors are all that is important? Happiness is measured by GNP. One good oilman knows more than all you elitists combined. This is why we need to shut down NASA, the EPA, and for that matter, the FEC, FCC, CFPB, and DOI.
Climbert

climber
the t is silent
Jan 21, 2018 - 09:24pm PT
It's important to listen to the parts of climate science that I like, and to deny the rest.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 21, 2018 - 09:47pm PT
What started the melting of the Ice Age?

I think that is an excellent question and an active area of research, which one? What started the Ice Ages?

Here is a paper:
Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation

Our global temperature stack and transient modelling point to CO₂ as a key mechanism of global warming during the last deglaciation. Furthermore, our results support an interhemispheric seesawing of heat related to AMOC [Atlantic meridional overturning circulation] variability and suggest that these internal heat redistributions explain the lead of Antarctic temperature over CO₂ while global temperature was in phase with or slightly lagged CO₂. Lastly, the global proxy database suggests that parts of the northern mid to high latitudes were the first to warm after the LGM [Last Glacial Maximum], which could have initiated the reduction in the AMOC that may have ultimately caused the increase in CO₂ concentration.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 21, 2018 - 09:52pm PT
my point is that we understood what happened then

and we understand what is happening now

the increases of CO₂ in the atmosphere then were due to natural processes related to ocean circulation. that is not what is happening now. what is happening now is that we are burning fossil fuels which increase the CO₂ and the response of the climate is just what we expect it to be.

our understanding of the climate is supported by our studies of past climate, and predicts what will happen to our future climate.

those predictions are consistent with what is happening now.

There is a suposed "consensus" of OPINIONS but no hard evidence whatsoever that humans are causing climate change or even contributing to it in a significant way.

no that is not correct, there is hard evidence, why would you deny that?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 21, 2018 - 09:59pm PT
no, they are not the same, we can look for those changes from the past and we see that that does not explain the current increase in CO₂ and the subsequent increases in temperature
monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 21, 2018 - 09:59pm PT
Because we know the physics of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Modern warming is at least 10x faster than the end of ice age warming and happening at an unusual time in the cycle. That alone makes them unrelated.
monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 21, 2018 - 10:15pm PT
It's happening at a time we are pouring vast amounts of co2 into the atmosphere, it would be highly unlikely it's being caused by something else.

Basically, you have to explain away this chart. Good luck, I'm sure you will make a feeble attempt.

Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Jan 21, 2018 - 10:53pm PT
1. The average global mean temperature is rising.

2. There is no evidence that the factors that caused the average global mean temperature to rise in the past are causing the current rise.

3. An increased concentration of atmospheric CO2 will cause average global mean temperatures to rise.

4. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution humans have been putting (>40 billion tons yearly now) co2 that was accumulated and sequestered in the earth over hundreds of millions of years into the atmosphere.

5. Humans are causing the current rise in average global mean temperature.

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 21, 2018 - 11:03pm PT
Taking you at your word, it still doesn't prove that man is causing it. There have been variations in the cycle throughout history.

I think you've confused what science does. The changes that are happening can be explained by human use of fossil fuels.

No other historic periods show climate behavior that is similar.

During the last deglaciation, over 6000 years for the CO2 to go from 180 ppm to 262 ppm

another 4000 years for it to go from 262 to 280 ppm

and less than 200 years from 280 to 400 ppm

Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Jan 22, 2018 - 07:21am PT
Ah, and yet we continue with our epic road trips--#VANLIFE! Anyone doing the eight hour round trip to the Valley this weekend?

BAd
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 22, 2018 - 07:35am PT
The ice cores show that temperature changes precede ratios of atmospheric CO2 content. Additionally, despite assertions to the contrary, the resolution of most proxies is insufficient to accurately determine decadal level changes in atmospheric content: i.e. the current decades
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 22, 2018 - 08:00am PT
The ice cores show that temperature changes precede ratios of atmospheric CO2 content.

I think you should reread the paper, at least in the last deglaciation the picture is more complex.

But it is certainly true that if you raise the CO₂ level in the atmosphere that the temperatures will rise.
Craig Fry

Trad climber
So Cal.
Jan 22, 2018 - 09:45am PT
It's a denial cult, they think it's cool to question science.
They have no idea that it makes them look like fools and what they are really doing is deepening the divide between good and wrong

Why would anyone not believe the science?, There is only one reason, they are dupes to big fossil fuel money misinformation campaigns,
they are authoritarian followers, fascists, far right wing loons, brainwashed, anti-science propagandists, liars, proponents of the misinformation they were fed,
that's more than one I guess

They only question the science when big money has a campaign against it, then they follow the propaganda like lemmings.
They believe the science about everything else, why would they not believe the science on this subject?

If you want to be skeptical about something, the first Red Flag is "paid for by Big Money Interests", you can almost be sure that it promotes it's profit over science.

AND: Organized Religion is just another Big Money interest which promotes anti-science propaganda
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Jan 22, 2018 - 11:38am PT
Taking you at your word, it still doesn't prove that man is causing it. There have been variations in the cycle throughout history.

Since people can get lung cancer without smoking, it is impossible to show that smoking causes lung cancer.

So there!
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Jan 22, 2018 - 12:59pm PT
Jody, the thing is, you ask others questions and they answer them intelligently and with data.

When you are asked direct questions, you won't answer them or you deflect.

EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 22, 2018 - 02:40pm PT
It is me against several others here.

It's amazing how a little non-consensus content can generate so much hostility.

Keep up the good work.
WBraun

climber
Jan 22, 2018 - 07:27pm PT
Malemute says -- "And if you don't know how to THINK, you will be thought an idiot."

Malemute is the real idiot.

He can't think for himself ever.

The nutcase fool only posts links and endless copy pastes.

Moron ......
monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 22, 2018 - 07:35pm PT
That's high praise, coming from mystic boy.
monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 22, 2018 - 08:03pm PT
In the 70's it was worry about a coming ice age

Nope. Cue the Time magazine meme.

Jody can sure pack in the myths.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 22, 2018 - 08:05pm PT
When GW took a 15 year pause...

it didn't take a pause

No hard evidence humans cause anything, just assumptions based on circumstantial evidence.

there is hard evidence, but you have to actually be able to understand the evidence to know

monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 22, 2018 - 08:25pm PT
Yes, it's a giant conspiracy.
monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 22, 2018 - 08:45pm PT
Oh my, we'll never be able to convince Jody now. Someone called him a very mean name.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 22, 2018 - 08:56pm PT
If there was hard evidence...why is there all this squawking about "consensus of opinions"?

the squawking isn't coming from the scientific community, they are in agreement over the essential issues involving climate change

Why are there credible scientists who disagree with the "hard evidence"?

this happens in many fields of science, disagreements are not an indication of validity. disagreements are resolvable by doing experiments and making observations.

There are a lot of scientists who don't buy the human-caused climate change idea.

not many who are practicing climate science

Data has been manipulated, collection points for the data has been manipulated to fit the claims, etc. What a load of crapola you people are trying to foist on us.

these are allegations that have been shown to be false many times over.

Why are you trolling this thread?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 22, 2018 - 09:15pm PT
the date of that article is 15 January 2014

Certainly at that time there were a lot of questions, and even disagreements in the science community over whether or not this made sense, the "hiatus" in warming.

A large number of papers addressed the issue in a scientific manner, trying to understand the temperature time series.

Among the many issues that were brought to light were:

1) under estimation of the Arctic warming (where there are few sites monitoring surface and sea temperatures);

2) natural variability and natural cycles that were unresolved in the then current models, volcanic aerosols for instance (which cannot be predicted);

3) cold biased data which was a result in changes to the observer network

Basically, when scientists addressed the "hiatus" as a scientific issue, they tracked down all the various issues that led to it. In the end they found that there was no actual hiatus.

The temperatures of 2016 and 2017 certainly are much higher than you'd have expected from the "hiatus" explanation, and 2017 was a La Nina year, expected to be much cooler.

These sorts of issues, disagreements, skeptical comments are addressed with more scientific analysis.

But you have to keep up, if you read stale blogs on the web your information is out of date and likely to be irrelevant to the current discussion.
Krease

Gym climber
the inferno
Jan 22, 2018 - 09:15pm PT
Fatty Fuktard was mad he didn't get to go golfing this weekend. Declared war on solar panels and washing machines. Wonder if he'll impose tariffs on all the products his shoddy corporation manufactures overseas?
Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Jan 22, 2018 - 09:20pm PT
Jody you are not a skeptic. You are more like Rebecca in that article you posted than you realize.

You are not debating as an honest participant. You already have your mind made up.

No matter what is presented to you, if it doesn’t fit your vision of what is America’s God-given destiny of infinite capitalistic growth, you will reject it.

Quit acting as if there is something wrong with the evidence. You just don’t want it to be true, so you will never accept the evidence, never accept that humans are the cause of global warming, no matter how strong the evidence, because you know you could never accept the implications that come with that.

Just admit that it isn’t about what is most likely, it’s about what you want.

You’ve been trolling on this topic the same way for years. For once just be honest about your position. You are no Mike Rowe, you are Rebecca; not in your politics, but in your attitude.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 22, 2018 - 09:20pm PT
Whatever Ed, go back to slapping each other on the back and telling each other how smart you all are.

Pathetic.


look, Jody, I have addressed your questions, if you don't like the answers that's your issue, but certainly I've taken the time to try to explain them.

I do get paid to think, that's essentially my job, and I believe that I have been good at it over the years on a lot of different topics. It seems foolish of you to not recognize that there are smart people (and I'm not the smartest of them by a stretch) and they are contributing to the well being of the country.

We all make contributions, among them are trying to explain what we do.

Perhaps it is pathetic that I would even try to here, because of people like you who seem to take offense.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 22, 2018 - 11:20pm PT
"I do get paid to think". Yeah, sure Ed. As long as you espouse the party line. Pathetic.
Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Jan 23, 2018 - 09:42am PT
Ahh, there’s Rick Sumner, another cognitive dissonance-phobic, confirmation bias-philic hack with zero credibility—go back into your hole, as#@&%e.
Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Jan 23, 2018 - 10:42am PT
Study shows that Christians are caring less and less about environmental causes.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/01/180123113020.htm
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Jan 23, 2018 - 11:42am PT
All of the skeptics questions were already answered long ago.
-hiatus, -70s magazine, -quotes from quacks and paid deniers like spencer, monckton, singer.

Why are you deniers deliberately ignorant and unable to read?
Why do you think your opinion matters when science has found conclusive evidence proving AGW?
Why do you keep asking the same questions which Chuff asked 10 years ago, and were already answered?
Why do you like to present yourselves as idiots?
Why do you hate the environment?


eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Jan 23, 2018 - 11:53am PT
Is there anything that could be discovered in the future that could possibly change Jody's or Rick Sumner's minds? I highly doubt it, regardless of how compelling. They will be denying to the end, no doubt. Alternatively, if something new was discovered by science that indicated say, a buffering agent that mitigated climate change and had been previously overlooked, then I have no doubt that this would reverberate through the scientific community and reshape climate scientists' beliefs.

I would like to see a survey of all climate change deniers correlated with watching Fox News. My guess is the correlation would be very high.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Jan 23, 2018 - 11:59am PT
Here is just a tiny fraction of the real information about the paid DISCREDITED deniers and misinformers:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/feb/21/nazis-climate-contrarian-credibility-gap

https://www.beforetheflood.com/explore/the-deniers/top-10-climate-deniers/

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12032015/leaked-email-reveals-whos-who-list-climate-denialists-merchants-of-doubt-oreskes-fred-singer-marc-morano-steve-milloy

https://www.desmogblog.com/global-warming-denier-database

https://rogerfjellstadolsen.blogspot.com/2017/10/yes-all-climate-denier-darlings.html

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/roy-spencer-peabody-energy_us_57601e12e4b053d43306535e

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/jan/06/climate-change-climate-change-scepticism
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Jan 23, 2018 - 03:57pm PT
I've got it! The non-deniers have all of the good scientists on their side. I say, let's put some of them to work on creating killer memes that can be sent subliminally or something to the target audience that undoes whatever Fox News did. The internet would be the delivery system. They'll never know what hit them. They'd just start acting sensibly about this subject suddenly.
WBraun

climber
Jan 23, 2018 - 04:09pm PT
Malemute is saying that he Malemute is st00pid and Malemute being st00pid can't be fixed.

Malemute is describing himself perfectly for once .....
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 23, 2018 - 08:08pm PT
So, in reality, when a question like that is asked, what your side REALLY wants is to pontificate on ONE side of the story and to suppress dissenting opinions.

When a question is asked I try to answer it the best I can using the best science I can. That is really the only side of the story as far as I am concerned.

It is not suppressing opinion to present an answer to a scientific question that happens to show why that opinion is not supported by the best science available. All scientists know that, and accept the fact that they could be wrong, and that that can be shown by conducting a scientific argument based on both sound theory and experimental observations and measurements.

You brought up the issue of something called "the hiatus" which has been very carefully studied and understood. In the end there wasn't a hiatus. At the time of the article you cited (did you read that article?) it was a topic of scientific debate.

The debate was engaged, and after looking at all the factors it turns out that "the hiatus" wasn't.


Finally, I don't know what side you are referring to that I am on, as I've said many times, I'm a scientist. The conditions of my employment are that I practice good science and provide the best advice based on that science.

It doesn't have anything to do with "the party line" and it is insulting that you would suggest that, especially since you have no idea what it is I do.


Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 23, 2018 - 08:56pm PT
yes, I am one of those scientists that doesn't practice climate science, but am able to read and understand the papers (and have done a lot of that) and are a part of the science community that understands the scientific arguments supporting the hypothesis that humans are responsible for the current climate change.

monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 23, 2018 - 09:14pm PT
Jody likes to showcase his ignorance of science.
Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Jan 23, 2018 - 09:32pm PT
Nobody said, “bring out the gimp!”

Get back in your box.

And get a zyprexa prescription for your new world disorder.






And Jody you should just go back to eating donuts and cleaning toilets.
Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Jan 23, 2018 - 09:45pm PT
So what?


In today’s political climate the Clean Air Act from the ‘70’s probably couldn’t get pased. And you would probably be one of those arguing against it. What would the U.S. look like if we hadn’t fought pollution.

https://m.phys.org/news/2017-10-world-pollution-deadlier-wars-disasters.html

https://www.care2.com/greenliving/what-if-we-never-passed-the-clean-air-act.html
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 23, 2018 - 09:45pm PT
I'm to the right of you in that picture, Jody.

just sayin'
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 23, 2018 - 09:49pm PT
we all die, at we can at least hope our friends will get together when it happens
Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Jan 23, 2018 - 09:54pm PT
Hope you enjoyed your moment with Ed—the closest you’ve ever gotten to intelligent.




maybe a day will come where those in denial will have their heads lopped off!

Is this what the voices are telling you now? Get on those meds boy; ask for olanzapine. This is what we call paranoid ideation.




Edit
An ER RN. When you present a danger to yourself or others I look forward to putting you in restraints and administering a B52.

v v v v v
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 24, 2018 - 07:45am PT
I'm to the right of you in that picture, Jody.

just sayin'

Post of the year.

Thanks Ed.
divad

Trad climber
wmass
Jan 28, 2018 - 03:19pm PT
If climate change is a hoax, why was golf being played on my x-c ski course today?
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 31, 2018 - 02:52pm PT
Bill Nye - anti-science denier.

"He's a witch!"

Bill Nye Does Not Speak for Us and He Does Not Speak for Science

By attending the State of the Union with NASA administrator nominee Jim Bridenstine, the Science Guy tacitly endorses climate denial, intolerance and attacks on science

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/bill-nye-does-not-speak-for-us-and-he-does-not-speak-for-science/
mouse from merced

Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
Feb 4, 2018 - 06:28am PT
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/02/03/white-house-to-withdraw-controversial-nominee-to-head-council-on-environmental-quality/?utm_term=.dfe7820963b9

Much of the mainstream scientific community agreed. In November, more than 300 scientists from around the country signed a letter urging the Senate to reject her confirmation. It cited her “dangerous” views about climate change, saying. “This is not a partisan issue; it is a matter of defending scientific integrity.” Confirming Harnett White, the group said, “would have serious consequences for people and the ecosystems of the only planet that can support us.”
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Feb 7, 2018 - 02:02pm PT
Found under NOBODY CARES ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING!


k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Feb 7, 2018 - 05:35pm PT
Just look at those hokey charts from Mr. ET. Ha, what a laugh.

If you really want to know what Bloomberg says, read their report from 2017:

https://about.bnef.com/clean-energy-investment/

Here's one quote:

World clean energy investment totaled $333.5 billion last year, up 3% from 2016 and the second highest annual figure ever, taking cumulative investment since 2010 to $2.5 trillion.
...
Solar investment globally amounted to $160.8 billion in 2017, up 18% on the previous year despite these cost reductions.


Looks like this Bloomberg Report has the real graphs:

https://europa.eu/capacity4dev/unep/documents/global-trends-renewable-energy-investment-2017

From this:

Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2017 finds that wind, solar, biomass and waste-to-energy, geothermal, small hydro and marine sources added 138.5 gigawatts to global power capacity in 2016, up 8 per cent from the 127.5 gigawatts added the year before. The added generating capacity roughly equals that of the world's 16 largest existing power producing facilities combined.

@EdwardT, from where do you get your fake news?
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 7, 2018 - 05:38pm PT
I guess my retard neighbor didn’t get the memo.

Pretty sure she’s part of ‘Jerry’s Gang’.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Feb 7, 2018 - 05:39pm PT
EdwardT, can I ask you - Do you regularly watch Fox News? It's just a little survey that I need another data point for.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Feb 7, 2018 - 06:57pm PT
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz

Feb 7, 2018 - 05:35pm PT
Just look at those hokey charts from Mr. ET. Ha, what a laugh.

Hokey charts?

The first shows how insignificant wind and solar power are in the big picture. Two percent of the total. That's yuge!!! "Stop the presses!"

The second shows a significant steady increase in renewable energy from 2004 to 2011, then a relative flat-line in growth over the last six years.

You claim "Bloomberg Report has the real graphs" and ask about my fake news.

Are the graphs I posted incorrect?

How so?
Ricky D

Trad climber
Sierra Westside
Feb 12, 2018 - 09:48pm PT
Have you noticed this underlying sense of tense excitement amongst us as we discuss the end of the world as we know it?

All this earnest angst makes me feel like a thirteen year old on the cusp of his first solo orgasm.

Or it could just be a retro REM song -

[Click to View YouTube Video]

Do any of you really believe that "we" can fix this self-made mess?

The earth is just going to shake us off like a bad case of the fleas - your AI, VR and whatever be damned.

Nice violin there Nero.
Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Feb 13, 2018 - 08:27am PT
Sea level rise is accelerating.


http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2018/02/06/1717312115.full.pdf


Significance

Satellite altimetry has shown that global mean sea level has been rising at a rate of ∼3 ± 0.4 mm/y since 1993. Using the altimeter record coupled with careful consideration of interannual and decadal variability as well as potential instrument errors, we show that this rate is accelerating at 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y2, which agrees well with climate model projections. If sea level continues to change at this rate and acceleration, sea-level rise by 2100 (∼65 cm) will be more than double the amount if the rate was constant at 3 mm/y.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Feb 13, 2018 - 11:33am PT
"The earth is just going to shake us off like a bad case of the fleas"

That's right. The "earth" doesn't care about humans any more than it did about the passenger pigeon. The "earth" doesn't care about the earth. Eventually it will burn up in the supernova.

There will be massive impacts on hundreds of millions of people, and everyone will be affected to some degree. This has already begun; however it will mostly occur gradually over the next 30-100 years. So let's all just stick our heads in the sand, and not worry about anyone else. Just like the federal debt. party on Galt!
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Feb 13, 2018 - 11:43am PT
Do any of you really believe that "we" can fix this self-made mess?

My analogy is that climate change is like the early stages of emphysema.

Is the patient going to cold turkey quite smoking. Probably not. But any reduction in the number of cigarettes a day gives the patient a better future than business as usual.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Feb 13, 2018 - 12:41pm PT
Actual facts about growth in renewables.

https://www.iea.org/publications/renewables2017/

The growth in renewable power will be twice as large as gas and coal combined over the next five years, the IEA said. While that will take renewables’ share of electricity generation from 24% last year to 30% in 2022, coal will still be the biggest source of power.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/04/solar-power-renewables-international-energy-agency

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2018/01/solar-grabs-half-of-global-renewables-investment-in-2017-reaching-161-billion.html

https://www.nationofchange.org/2017/10/05/china-showing-world-renewable-energy-dominance-looks-like-says-new-iea-report/

India targets
https://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/uploads/India_Energy_Map_v4-03.png


Even in the USA, from 2010 to 2016, in quadrillion BTUs,
solar went from .08 to .61
wind went from .88 to 2.14
These are massive percentage increases, especially considering most areas continue to be highly pro-fossil fuels in their policies.

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/images/charts/energy_consumption_by_source_large.jpg
https://www.eia.gov/renewable/annual/preliminary/images/figure_1.jpg

https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/energy/energy_archive/energy_flow_2010/LLNLUSEnergy2010.pdf

https://www.llnl.gov/news/americans-used-more-clean-energy-2016

Of course, Actual growth in renewables will continue to lag behind where it should be wherever there is no proper carbon tax (revenue neutral).
Any stall in USA renewable energy growth is because the no-nothings are in charge in most areas. That says nothing about what could be done if the idiots were not running the circus. Additionally, since the cost of wind and solar has already dropped dramatically, some leveling off in dollars does not indicate any leveling off in kilowatt hours.

On 8 Jan 2018, the US federal energy regulatory commission rejected a plan by the Donald Trump-led US administration to provide subsidies for coal-fired and nuclear power plants. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jan/08/donald-trump-coal-industry-plan-rejected-rick-perry

California is an example of what is possible in renewable energy growth.

"California is on track to reach 50% of their renewable energy goal ten years ahead of schedule, according to the California Public Utilities Commission RPS (Renewable Portfolio Standard) report, released back in November. The state’s primary utilities have already met (or are about to exceed) their renewable energy target of 33% by 2020 and is on track to hit their 2030 goal of 50% by 2020, far surpassing any other state in the union.

The big three utilities- Pacific Gas and Electric Co. (PG&E), Southern California Edison (SCE), and San Diego Gas & Electric Co. (SDG&E), all surpassed the 25% requirement to meet the 2016 goal. The breakdown is as follows:
-PG&E accounted for 32.9% of renewable energy produced electricity.
-SCE accounted for 28.2% of renewable energy produced electricity.
-SDG&E accounted for the highest with 43.2% of renewable energy produced electricity.

According to the RPS, all three companies predict they will meet or exceed their 2020 compliance goals before the target date, which is impressive considering the RPS program has also reduced the cost of renewables with solar falling 77% (from 2008 to 2016) and wind dropping by 47% (from 2007 to 2015). The state began their endeavor to ‘go green,’ requiring energy utilities to increase their use of renewables back in 2002. Current Governor Brown and former Governator Schwarzenegger ramped-up the initiative for cleaner energy over time, which led to the RPS program, with Brown touting California’s ability to “boost renewable power and lower emissions while growing it’s economy,” according to a November article by San Francisco Chronicle.

That being said, California’s emissions have been declining since 2008 and are expected to continue over the next few decades before the state’s electrical production comes from 100% renewable energy by 2045.

https://www.element14.com/community/groups/power-management/blog/2018/02/13/california-on-track-to-meet-green-energy-goals-a-decade-early

WBraun

climber
Feb 13, 2018 - 12:49pm PT
Do any of you really believe that "we" can fix this self-made mess?

Everything can be fixed ultimately.

But only when you behave.

In this day and age, 90% do not behave and thus suffer the effects of those consequences.

We are NOT the owners of this planet, we are not even the owners of our own material bodies.

We are all basically operating in illusion.

Even the so-called scientists .......
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Feb 15, 2018 - 04:56pm PT
Just want to pull one more Ron Anderson,We have had the third thaw this winter. We have little snowpack and it was 62 degrees today.


The third month in a row with an over 60 degree day.

Unlike Ron, I know weather is not climate.

Geology degree,but listen to Sketch.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Feb 15, 2018 - 04:58pm PT
Nobody Cares
Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Feb 15, 2018 - 05:49pm PT
Nobody Cares


There was this scene in the movie Serenity where they went to the planet of Miranda where the government {newworld(dis)order} will love this and found that the government had gassed the populace with something to supposedly make them happier and more easygoing with their fellow humans. But it actually made them so passive so that they didn't care about anything at all so that they just lay down and died--except for a very small minority called "Reavers" who became hyper-agressive.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Feb 15, 2018 - 07:21pm PT
Wilbeer... Assuming you're in NY...? I thought you guys were getting buried..? Same scenario out west here...plenty of high 50 days and 20% of normal on snow...The big high pressure of not long ago is back...If not for snow making there would be limited skiing...
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Feb 16, 2018 - 06:14am PT
Rj,we have had a bunch but ,none of it has stuck around long at all.

I have never seen such melt offs. The Dacks above 3k have a bit left ,but if warm rains continue,it will all be gone ,quickly.

Middle of February and more rain than snow.
fear

Ice climber
hartford, ct
Feb 16, 2018 - 06:41am PT
Ice climbing in this region is really hit or miss now. Even 10-20 years ago it was generally great and very consistent.

More reason to get into mixed stuff!
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Feb 17, 2018 - 01:35pm PT
My analogy is that climate change is like the early stages of emphysema.

Is the patient going to cold turkey quite smoking. Probably not. But any reduction in the number of cigarettes a day gives the patient a better future than business as usual.


Law of diminishing returns, and how secondary effects impact body systems, suggest that reducing (instead of ceasing) smoking, will have minimal positive impact on one's quality of life. Moreover, a half-assed effort will probably increase cognitive dissonance.

I'm not sure we can increase the level of cognitive dissonance above what we already have. A few half-assed measures certainly aren't going to save us from ourselves.

But, for instance, if global warming had never been an issue, the amount of electricity from coal, both now and into the future, would have been significantly higher. Solar and wind have gotten to the point where they can compete with coal in some markets even without a subsidy or a CO2 tax on coal. But that would not have happened near as quickly without the subsidies they did get.

The life expectancy of a coal plant is measured in decades. By not building anymore, we have bought a little more time without killing our economy or causing every single job to move to China, like some would have had you believe.

But do I think we are still going to smoke ourselves to death. Probably.

clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Feb 18, 2018 - 07:44am PT
From the interview, Sam Carana: "Methane releases from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean have a strong warming impact, especially locally, AND methane releases in the Arctic also act as a catalyst for other feedbacks that are all self-reinforcing and interlinked, amplifying each other in many ways. It could easily become 10°C or 18°F warmer in a matter of years, especially in places where most people are now living."

https://soundcloud.com/fasterthanexpected/fte24-arctic-sam-carana-about-arctic-and-global-temperature-1-feb-2018

Will humans be extinct by 2026?

http://arctic-news.blogspot.de/p/extinction.html

Abrupt Warming

http://arctic-news.blogspot.de/2017/05/abrupt-warming-how-much-and-how-fast.html
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Feb 18, 2018 - 12:13pm PT
Lennox, I liked the battery operated line in Serenity.


Anybody read Jeremy Rifkin's The Third Industrial Revolution?
BobSFrankNose

Social climber
Seattle
Feb 20, 2018 - 01:24pm PT
With all of the new 'cut and paste' info from Malemute, I thought I would throw one recent article (2017) out for Maly's interpretation and/or instant declaration of bullsh#t.

Apparently, the basis of climate alarmist is pretty much centered on the 'hockey stick'. This article below shows that Michael 'hockey stick' Mann is still under contempt of court in Canada (Canada - who would have thought Canada - under the dictatorship of a failed high school drama couch - Justinian Trudeau).

Yeah, seems that another scientist (Dr. Timothy Ball) with equal if not better qualifications and background seems to think that Mann needs to produce his data (as in evidence). Mann says it is his own intellectual property, but it was gathered at the public expense - so it's not his.

What is Mann hiding if he is so right and 97% of scientist concur?

And right behind Ball are several others with law suits pending for Mann to 'hand over the data - dude'!

Most of you won't read even the first paragraph of the article (why wouldn't you??), so not expecting anything but hate and criticism back to me. But, for those real scientist, legal minded and critical thinkers - this might cause some pause in your appalling determination to school us skeptics.

https://principia-scientific.org/breaking-fatal-courtroom-act-ruins-michael-hockey-stick-mann/

I'll take Richard Lindzen PhD, Timothy Ball PhD and Judith Curry PhD over Michael Mann and Phil Jones most days - they've got nothing to hide, nothing to gain, no celebrity status, no government grants and have not been exposed by emails (of all things).
monolith

climber
state of being
Feb 20, 2018 - 01:35pm PT
https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Richard_S._Lindzen

Dr. Richard S. Lindzen ( b. February 8, 1940) is the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology[1]

He is funded by fossil fuel interests, such as Peabody Coal.[2]

However, analysis of Peabody Energy court documents showed that the fossil fuel company backed Lindzen,[2] proving that Lindzen was lying.

Lindzen's science was so bad, it was discarded by an energy group.

An internal document (pdf) of the Global Climate Coalition (GCC) -- an industry front group that disbanded in 2002 -- reviewed some of the "contrarian" arguments used by Lindzen and other climate change skeptics that they later discarded.

However, the GCC's science advisers noted that this argument had been disproven to the point that Lindzen himself had ceased to use it.

However, the data supporting this hypothesis is weak, and even Lindzen has stopped presenting it as an alternative to the conventional model of climate change,
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Feb 20, 2018 - 03:35pm PT
There is no overall debate on climate change.
The science is settled.
The number of deniers will decrease as they die off.
In the USA this die off will be slow, since so many fools love fake news.


recent articles
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-window-is-closing-to-avoid-dangerous-global-warming/

https://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming#.WoytCTYUmEI

consensus
https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/

facts
https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

trumpeter quacks
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-web-pages-erased-and-obscured-under-trump/

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-climate-censorship-tracker-comes-online/

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-trump-administration-abandons-science-advice-but-at-what-cost/

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-deniers-support-likely-candidate-for-top-white-house-environment-job/
BobSFrankNose

Social climber
Seattle
Feb 20, 2018 - 04:08pm PT
Thanks Monolith, seriously, I mean it. Thanks for the information. Your link does not connect (might want to fix that), but I found the article anyway quickly. I like to get the PRO's and Con's and make a slightly informed opinion. I will reconsider Richard Lindzen as a fully credible source and take into consideration that he is or was tied to the coal industry.

I have found the info on https://www.skepticalscience.com/ very valuable - because they take every question or negative and explains it with facts why it is not real or true. I'm open to every explanation and - for me - it goes on for hours and hours and hours of reading.

Side note: Does any bio regarding Michael Mann state that he is sponsored or funded by the IPCC or any other governmental agencies with an agenda? Who has paid for his research and affected what he has to say. Who is he tied to - certainly not the coal industry.

What do you make of the current contempt of court of Mann? Is Judith Curry or Tim Ball any better?

Serious question: Would you discredit all of the hundreds of respected or peer reviewed scientist that aren't alarmed (they may not be deniers, just not yet alarmed that it is the most critical thing in the world [Bernie Sanders, et al])

The internet has list of prominent people, their bio's, their education and published works, etc., etc and they seem to be not on board with to what degree this is anthropogentic and (more importantly), of that percentage, what can we as citizens stop, reverse or fix. That's sort of the bottom line with me.

And . . . . regarding Splater's list of current prophecies, one only need look at his first link: The Window is Closing to Avoid Dangerous Global Warming, and think to themselves - by 2015 the 'water will be up to Midtown Manhattan', and dozen's of other ridiculous and false predictions to get us all saying the science is settled.
BobSFrankNose

Social climber
Seattle
Feb 20, 2018 - 04:14pm PT
And, Splater, I agree that the earth is warming - duh! I have a thermostat and I watch the news. So put me in with your list of non'deniers.

But, to what extent is the earth CURRENTLY warming, is it significant for 100 years? 200 years?, or is it significant for the geological time clock. Like no other warm periods, no other cold periods, god provides us with a constant temperature as long as we are righteous and don't pollute?

Come on Splater - you can do better!
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Feb 20, 2018 - 04:55pm PT
Would you discredit all of the hundreds of respected or peer reviewed scientist that aren't alarmed (they may not be deniers, just not yet alarmed that it is the most critical thing in the world [Bernie Sanders, et al])

No, no, Nooooooo! You can't ask such reasonable questions!

There is ONE "fact" here, and it is very simple: ALL reasonable, sensible, PC people agree that there is global-warming, it is almost entirely human-caused, the USA must initiate sweeping and profoundly invasive policies to reverse it, because if not, then humankind is doomed to a horrible extinction within about 10-20 years.

(That's a bit of a straw-man for effect, but not by much. Personally, I think that the globe IS warming, not by as much as the models project, and that it's mostly a natural cycle not as closely tied to and caused by increasing CO2 as SOME scientists believe, and that it's gonna be a wonderful thing for the planet in general as it happens, notwithstanding its inconvenience to a relatively small subset of the human population.)

That's why, per the OP question, I'm not more concerned about it.

That said, I'm on the same page with the "really-concerned" regarding reduction of so-called "greenhouse gasses," more because of the policies they are symptomatic of, which explains why I share their desire to do things like encourage vegetarianism, a halt to the mowing down of rainforest acres (acres that get primarily converted to cattle ranching), serious expenditure of resources to promote/develop modern nuclear energy, etc. But my motivation is to get us off of fossil fuel asap, for all the benefits that policy has regardless of the "threat" of global warming.

Thus, people with entirely different beliefs/motivations can end up sharing the same "results" desires, even though we might continue to disagree about the best policies to accomplish those results.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Feb 20, 2018 - 05:17pm PT
Madbolter...Why do you think it's a natural cycle...?
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Feb 20, 2018 - 05:40pm PT
71 today , broke a 1996 record of 62 ,which broke a record of 48 in 1924.


February, all snowpack is gone.


madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Feb 20, 2018 - 06:18pm PT
Madbolter...Why do you think it's a natural cycle...?

I don't think that "it's a natural cycle." I think that much/most of the warming can be attributed to the natural cycle. It remains an open question how much of warming can be attributed to human activity. Thus, it remains an open question how much humans can "correct" the trend.

On both of those questions, there is not even close to a consensus, even among those scientists that are convinced that there is a genuine warming trend. For example, there's a huge difference between a person thinking that human activity accounts for 80% of the warming trend compared to a person thinking it accounts for 20%. And even determining those percentages is a tendentious project.

But, as I said, to me those questions are virtually irrelevant because I believe that most of the changes that, shall I say, "change advocates" want I also want--for their own reasons/benefits!
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Feb 20, 2018 - 06:24pm PT
The world and its future just wants to say thanks for your view,really.
monolith

climber
state of being
Feb 20, 2018 - 06:52pm PT
Sure, natural cycle. Happens all the time.

monolith

climber
state of being
Feb 20, 2018 - 07:14pm PT
And no Madbolter, climate scientists don't rely on a single human attribution percentage but rather a probability distribution function. As the consensus graph below shows, it is extremely likely that humans have caused more than half the warming since 1950 and the best single estimate is around 110%. That means the warming input from humans is offset by natural cooling.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Feb 20, 2018 - 07:32pm PT
There is no overall debate on what is causing climate change.
The science is settled: humans causing more GHGs.
The number of deniers will decrease as they die off.
In the USA this die off will be slow, since so many fools love fake news.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Feb 20, 2018 - 07:38pm PT
^^^ Yup, that dogmatism is going to alienate the very people that would like to be on your side for entirely other reasons than yours.

Are you going to cite the 97% statistic again, or will you do a bit of searching to discover that that figure is not the consensus number for the claim YOU are making.

If you guys would back off the dogmatism even a little bit, you'd find a lot more people willing to get on board with taking reasonable steps (for their own merits) to reduce greenhouse gasses in the USA.

As it is, your "everybody who doesn't come to the same conclusions from the stats as I do is an idiot" attitude will keep us divided on what the path forward might be.

Hopefully dogmatists will also die off soon.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Feb 21, 2018 - 12:16am PT
It's called science.
BobSFrankNose

Social climber
Seattle
Feb 21, 2018 - 12:40pm PT
No Splater, its called Religion. If it were really science - it wouldn't be settled. And you wouldn't have fully have of the scientist all over the map on what it all means and what will happen next.

Your involved in Religion, with your prophets of doom, your self sacrificing, your closed mindedness and indignation, your intolerance, your ignorance and everything else that goes along with dogmatism.

In fact, your a Zealot in every sense of the word, and your group of cronies is quite organized and following a play book of impending disaster.

And Monolith, what the hell - you just put up another graph of the infamous 'hockey stick' and mocked the possibility of a coincidence. Didn't we just go over Michael 'hockey stick' Mann and his being still in contempt of court for refusing to provide a judge order explanation of his data.
monolith

climber
state of being
Feb 21, 2018 - 01:19pm PT
Oh, my! The Religion accusation. Good grief.

The hockey stick has been independently reproduced several times by other scientists. That's how science works. There is even another reconstruction in that graph, if you care to look deeper.

Good luck.

(And lets see you back up your wild ass claim Mann is in contempt of court)
BobSFrankNose

Social climber
Seattle
Feb 21, 2018 - 02:52pm PT
(And lets see you back up your wild ass claim Mann is in contempt of court)

Seriously? First place to turn to would be Google. I typed in: "is michael mann being held in contempt of court by a judge". Kind of like an attorney would do, just to get started.

The entire first page of links says yes. Here is just a smattering - in case you can't spell 'Goggle'.

Fatal Courtroom Act Ruins Michael 'hockey stick' Mann | Principia ...
https://principia-scientific.org/breaking-fatal-courtroom-act-ruins-michael-hockey-stick-mann/


UPDATE: Michael Mann Doubles Down over 'Contempt' Issue ...
https://climatechangedispatch.com/update-michael-mann-doubles-down-over-contempt-issue/

Michael Mann loses his court case and faces costs - Climate-Debate ...
http://www.climate-debate.com/forum/michael-mann-loses-his-court-case-and-faces-costs-d6-e1452.php

Decision looms in Michael Mann / Tim Ball “hockey stick” lawsuit - cfact
http://www.cfact.org/2017/07/24/decision-looms-in-michael-mann-tim-ball-hockey-stick-lawsuit/

Michael E. Mann - A response from my attorney Roger... | Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/MichaelMannScientist/posts/1466774033378794:0

Is Michael Mann In Contempt of Court? Not Yet | Religio-Political Talk ...
http://religiopoliticaltalk.com/is-michael-mann-in-contempt-of-court-not-yet/

Report: Fatal Courtroom Act Ruins Michael 'Hockey Stick' Mann ...
http://www.climatedepot.com/2017/07/05/fatal-courtroom-act-ruins-michael-hockey-stick-mann/

Court Rules Against AGW Climatologist Michael "Hockey Stick" Mann ...
https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/2864752

Controversy in the “Climate Science Trial of the Century”
https://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/item/26431-controversy-in-the-climate-science-trial-of-the-century

'Scientist' Michael Mann Commits Contempt of Court in 'Climate ...
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/07/scientist-michael-mann-commits-contempt-court-climate-science-trial-century/


There is one possible problem or hiccup. Mann's attorney Roger (Doger) says he has complied with everything the court ask for. But, you know, attorneys sometimes lie for their clients - because they legally can lie for their clients.


So, (. . . lets see you back up your wild ass claim Mann is NOT in contempt of court).

Next batter up!

Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Feb 21, 2018 - 03:01pm PT
Scientific consensus was 97% 5 years ago and is even higher now.
(which is effectively 100% since there will always be some quacks likes bobsFauxNews who gets his "fockts" from alt cartoons written by stooges and lemmings and is likely a non climbing Russian troll bot who can't stop spouting gibberish about "climategate")


https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change#Surveys_of_scientists_and_scientific_literature

A 2010 paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States (PNAS) reviewed publication and citation data for 1,372 climate researchers and drew the following two conclusions:

(i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support the tenets of ACC (Anthropogenic Climate Change) outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.[116]

A 2013 paper in Environmental Research Letters reviewed 11,944 abstracts of scientific papers matching "global warming" or "global climate change". They found 4,014 which discussed the cause of recent global warming, and of these "97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming".[120]

James L. Powell, a former member of the National Science Board and current executive director of the National Physical Science Consortium, analyzed published research on global warming and climate change between 1991 and 2012 and found that of the 13,950 articles in peer-reviewed journals, only 24 rejected anthropogenic global warming.[129] A follow-up analysis looking at 2,258 peer-reviewed climate articles with 9,136 authors published between November 2012 and December 2013 revealed that only one of the 9,136 authors rejected anthropogenic global warming.[130] His 2015 paper on the topic, covering 24,210 articles published by 69,406 authors during 2013 and 2014 found only five articles by four authors rejecting anthropogenic global warming. Over 99.99% of climate scientists did not reject AGW in their peer-reviewed research.[122]

Nov 4, 2016 - 05:16pm PT
basic reading
http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
http://climate.nasa.gov/causes/
http://climate.nasa.gov/effects/
http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/land-ice/
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature-projections

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange
monolith

climber
state of being
Feb 21, 2018 - 03:13pm PT
Oh my Bob, did you think a pile of garbage links would prove Mann is in contempt of court?

Look at the dates and claims, Bob. July, 2017.

The defendant in the libel trial, the 79-year-old Canadian climatologist, Dr Tim Ball (above, right) is expected to instruct his British Columbia attorneys to trigger mandatory punitive court sanctions
Well, did it happen Bob? Why hasn't Ball instructed the BC court to trigger mandatory punitive court sanctions?

Surely you have a link where this action was taken?
monolith

climber
state of being
Feb 21, 2018 - 03:19pm PT
BTW, thanks for posting the link to Mann's attorney saying he is not and never was in contempt of court. Much appreciated.

You would think that if the lawyer in the case is lying, he himself would be in contempt of court or risk disbarment.

Where's the link from Ball's attorney stating Mann is in contempt of court? Hint: John O'Sullivan is not Ball's attorney in this case.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Feb 21, 2018 - 03:24pm PT
Yes,The John Burch Society ,Heartland ,Koch brothers ,at least the Russians sources are consistent.
Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Feb 21, 2018 - 03:40pm PT
Go to the home pages on all of those sites in BobS google search. It is obvious from the rest of their content that they are all, except for the Facebook post, a bunch of wack-job denier sites. And if all you get is wack-job denier sites when you search for “Michael Mann contempt” then anyone with half a brain should realize it is complete bullshit fake news.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Feb 21, 2018 - 04:00pm PT
But but but ,we are dogmatic,those sources are free thinking.....lol
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Feb 21, 2018 - 05:07pm PT
move the sliders by dragging the white arrows to see glacier loss on Mt. Rainier

http://www.washingtonnature.org/fieldnotes/critical-mass-washingtons-shrinking-glaciers
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Feb 21, 2018 - 08:31pm PT
‘How weird is that?’ Temperatures in Arctic soar 45 degrees above normal.

As warm air spills into the Arctic from all sides, the world’s northernmost weather station experienced more than 24 hours of temperatures above freezing.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Feb 21, 2018 - 08:39pm PT
Why are so many Americans afraid that Climate Change science is legit...No god wills it comments...
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Feb 21, 2018 - 09:16pm PT
new world...Yeah...Love that sh#t...Just downed some 5 bridges tri-tip and heading for the toilet...Back for more soon...rotting colon
Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Feb 21, 2018 - 09:20pm PT







Gunks Ray

Trad climber
Gunks
Feb 22, 2018 - 09:48am PT
71 today , broke a 1996 record of 62 ,which broke a record of 48 in 1924.


February, all snowpack is gone.

willbeer

It was 73 deg when I got to Hunter Ski area yesterday morning, off of the man made runs everything is brown, no snow at all. I left the sun roof and windows cracked in my car so it wouldn't get to hot.....in February!!!!

On the drive back to the Gunks my car thermometer hit 80 at 4pm!!!!

In NYC it hit 77, broke the old record by 9deg, hottest day ever recorded in February there.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Feb 22, 2018 - 10:54am PT


Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Feb 22, 2018 - 10:58am PT
Why are so many Americans afraid that Climate Change science is legit...

Probably because most don't want to live in the utopia portrayed in this video....


This really encapsulates the problem, though nwo is an extreme example.

People that deny anthropomorphic climate change do so not because they are necessarily anti-science, but because they cannot accept the implications of the science.

The implication that we will have to restrain the infinite growth that capitalism demands and to mitigate corporate externalities or else future generations will suffer catastrophic consequences is anathema to them, so they either deny that the earth is warming, or that humans are causing it, or they posit that a warming earth will be a new Eden, with some minor inconveniences.

Science for them is not a tool for understanding, but a cudgel to beat their opponents, so they go off searching and posting anything scandalacious or sciency-sounding.

Or in nwo's case searching and posting some crazy, paranoid, grand conspiracy nut-jobbery.
Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Feb 22, 2018 - 11:29am PT
What’s your point ET?

One chart shows world and U.S. total co2 emissions have been rising.

Your second chart shows per capita emissions in the U.S. have been declining.

So our increases in efficiency and cleaner fuels is not keeping up with the increased emissions related to population growth.

Anything else?

EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Feb 22, 2018 - 11:38am PT
From 2008

"We've already reached the dangerous level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere," James Hansen, 67, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, told AFP here.

"But there are ways to solve the problem" of heat-trapping greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, which Hansen said has reached the "tipping point" of 385 parts per million.

One chart shows world and U.S. total co2 emissions have been rising.

The global chart shows US and European emissions have been relatively level since the 90s (actually, both have declined over the last decade), while China and the rest of the World have been steadily increasing output.

Unless we can get China and the rest of the World on board, any effort to reduce atmospheric CO2 levels will be in vain.
Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Feb 22, 2018 - 12:09pm PT
The global chart shows US and European emissions have been relatively level since the 90 (actually, both have declined over the last decade),

We have not been increasing at the rate of China, but if you look at that chart and see a decline or flatness you must have some kink in your neck that keeps your head tilted to the right.

But if you mean that U.S. emissions have slowed their increase, though still increasing, the way Obamacare slowed the still increasing, but less meteoric rise of healthcare costs, then okay . . .
Craig Fry

Trad climber
So Cal.
Feb 22, 2018 - 01:19pm PT
24 out of 13950 is 0.17 percent

So let's dispel this notion that only 97% of climate scientists agree

We can now use the figure 99.93% of the climate scientists agree on the cause of global warming
and the 0.17% are paid shills for the fossil fuel companies
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Feb 22, 2018 - 01:32pm PT
We have not been increasing at the rate of China, but if you look at that chart and see a decline or flatness you must have some kink in your neck that keeps your head tilted to the right.

But if you mean that U.S. emissions have slowed their increase, though still increasing, the way Obamacare slowed the still increasing, but less meteoric rise of healthcare costs, then okay . . .


Oh my. Powell looked at 13,950 articles. Out of all those reams of scientific results, how many disputed the reality of climate change?

Twenty-four. Yup. Two dozen. Out of nearly 14,000.

Of those 13,950 articles, how many explicitly supported the consensus opinion on AGW?

What is the consensus opinion on AGW? Is it merely humans have contributed to warming? How about humans are responsible for half of the warming? Or maybe humans are responsible for most of the warming?
Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Feb 22, 2018 - 01:48pm PT
Your chart is for “energy related” co2.

EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Feb 22, 2018 - 01:51pm PT
but if you look at that chart and see a decline or flatness you must have some kink in your neck that keeps your head tilted to the right.

The graph you posted shows a decline over the last decade.

It's from a story titled - U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Down 11.6% Since 2007
Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Feb 22, 2018 - 01:56pm PT
It shows a decline from 2008, but higher than early 90’s now.

And in case you forgot, we had a little thing called a recession.

https://www.vox.com/cards/obama-climate-plan/why-have-u-s-carbon-dioxide-emissions-fallen-since-2005

“Energy analysts don't expect these trends to last forever, though. As the economy continues to recover, emissions are projected to go back up — unless new policies are put in place.”
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Feb 22, 2018 - 02:45pm PT

People that deny anthropomorphic climate change do so not because they are necessarily anti-science, but because they cannot accept the implications of the science.
...

Science for them is not a tool for understanding, but a cudgel to beat their opponents, so they go off searching and posting anything scandalacious or sciency-sounding.

This happens but I think the identity politics is a bigger issue. During a TV interview I watched, a journalist was saying how, if he approached Midwestern farmers in a non-defensive manner, they would talk about how the timing of when to plant and harvest had changed because of the climate. They had clearly accepted that the climate had changed and they had changed their behavior because of it.

But if instead he just came out and asked them if climate change was a real thing, many times, their first response would be no. Their first response might as well have been, I watch Fox News and vote Trump.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Feb 22, 2018 - 05:44pm PT
if you look at that chart and see a decline or flatness you must have some kink in your neck that keeps your head tilted to the right.

It shows a decline from 2008

, but higher than early 90’s now.

Again, from the same story:

Overall, net emissions in 2015 were 11.6 percent below 2007 levels, according to the report. Except for 2012, when emissions were slightly lower, they have not been this low since 1993.

Edit: Here's a chart that illustrates my point about efforts without China's participation being in vain.

Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Feb 22, 2018 - 06:37pm PT
The USA as a whole has only begun to make a dent in GHG emissions. From the same 2015 article:

"(Environmental Protection Agency)
There are a couple of big reasons for this drop:
There was a massive recession in 2008, which meant less economic activity and less energy use. That drove US emissions down for a few years.
Americans have been driving less since 2005. They've also been buying more fuel-efficient cars and trucks in response to new fuel-economy rules  by the Obama administration.
Electric utilities have been using less coal to generate power, in part because a domestic boom in shale drilling has led to a glut of cleaner natural gas. (Burning natural gas for electricity produces roughly half the carbon-dioxide that burning coal does.) Cleaner wind power has also become a bigger source of electricity in recent years."

These changes do indicate what is possible if we continue to make policies that incentivize renewables, such as wind power incentives.

"Energy analysts don't expect these trends to last forever, though. As the economy continues to recover, emissions are projected to go back up — unless new policies are put in place."

For instance, trump would like to get rid of any such policies asap.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/16/climate/tax-bill-wind-solar.html

Additionally, a lot of the gain came from states like California that have a large push towards renewables. Many other states have explicitly rejected any change beyond the federal incentives, which are to be phased out.

Neither the feds nor the states have anything resembling a real carbon tax (revenue neutral). Only a tiny percent of vehicle travel is on toll roads. We refuse to even index the national fuel tax to inflation, so it hasn't gone up even nominally since 1993, and the tax doesn't even pay for road maintenance, much less any of the external costs of CO2 emissions.

In order to significantly reduce GHG emissions worldwide, the first world will have to take the lead, since our per capita emissions are the highest. Then we will push and force others to follow. This would happen in a series of international agreements, updated every few years.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Feb 23, 2018 - 07:09am PT
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north

Feb 23, 2018 - 06:28am PT

Evaluating the Need for Pipelines: A False Narrative for the Canadian Economy

https://www.cigionline.org/sites/default/files/documents/PB%20no115web.pdf

Jeff Rubin is one smart cookie. He made some nice change peddling gloom and doom back in '09. Who cares that he was flat out wrong. What matters are his latest foreboding predictions.

At some point, we will pass Peak Oil... and we'll be living in "interesting times".... skyrocketing gas prices. But it didn't happen with the last recovery, as Rubin predicted.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Feb 23, 2018 - 03:45pm PT
Malemute, MB2 has seen all of this stuff and has soberly calculated that human contribution is only around 50%. He's a philosopher after all. Facts are so pedestrian.
TomCochrane

Trad climber
Cascade Mountains and Monterey Bay
Feb 28, 2018 - 01:13am PT
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/02/26/north-pole-surges-above-freezing-in-the-dead-of-winter-stunning-scientists/?utm_term=.0ccb964254e7
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Feb 28, 2018 - 03:59pm PT
Just picked a copy of The Third Industrial Revolution by Rifkin.

Some workable solutions, but requiring will and vision.

I worry about my nephew's kids, but fear a global Easter Island.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Mar 7, 2018 - 12:20am PT
Most employers in urban areas provide free parking for employees, which is often worth even more than $10 per day.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Mar 7, 2018 - 08:49am PT
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/06/climate/college-republicans-carbon-tax.html

Ms. O’Brien said growing up the daughter of a biology teacher near the Tongass National Forest in
Alaska taught her a respect for both science and the environment. Ms. O’Brien said she has found
the lack of a coherent Republican Party position on climate change her single biggest challenge in
recruiting students to the conservative movement.

“The question I will frequently get is, ‘Why do you hate the planet? Why do you not like science?’”
she said. “We can’t be a party that’s entrenching itself in a dying planet.”
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Mar 16, 2018 - 10:23am PT
If you repeat a lie often enough, people will believe it, and you will even come to believe it yourself.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Mar 16, 2018 - 10:26pm PT
up thread EdwardT opined on Jan 12 2018

The temperature outlook shown above indicates above-average temperatures across the
southern US, extending northward out West through the central Rockies and all the way up to
Maine in the eastern part of the nation.

"With that kind of accuracy for the three month outlook, I definitely trust their guestimates for the
distant future."

the actual 3 month average temperature looked like this:

the color code in the lower map is the temperature difference from average... I think you could
describe this as: "above-average temperatures across the southern US, extending northward out
West through the central Rockies and all the way up to Maine in the eastern part of the nation."

looks pretty good to me.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Mar 17, 2018 - 04:32am PT
But crow tastes so good.

No. Really. It does. ☹️

Nice catch, Ed. 👍
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Mar 17, 2018 - 10:10am PT
I would have posted the "actuals" no matter how they came out...
that's the point of doing science.
WBraun

climber
Mar 19, 2018 - 06:18pm PT
Nothing has changed.

Malemute is still an insane out of control obsessed copy & paste serial poster .....
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Mar 22, 2018 - 08:02pm PT
locker, make sure you're sitting down before you click on this link:

http://hint.fm/wind/

EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Mar 23, 2018 - 09:21am PT
Climate scientists Kate Marvel of NASA and Katharine Hayhoe of Texas Tech went on to argue the IPCC’s 2013 report was outdated and scientific studies in the years since have painted a more alarming picture of man-made warming.

“The most recent IPCC report came out in 2013, but the climate model simulations used in that report stopped in 2005,” Marvel told Earther.

“By ‘stopped,’ I mean they relied on observational data (greenhouse gases, aerosols, volcanic dust, solar fluctuations) only up to that point,” she said. “Everything going forward was a projection, using our best guesses of what emissions would look like.”

“The IPCC report is the gold standard of climate science assessment, but it falls short in three important and relevant ways that would lead me, as a scientist, to advise expanding the literature used in this case if one wanted to obtain the most comprehensive and up-to-date perspective on the state of climate science,” Hayhoe echoed.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Mar 23, 2018 - 11:26am PT
the Republicans have all this under control.
the plan is to have Jeff Sessions and Ted Cruz's dad stand at the shoreline
with Bibles in hand as as the sky darkens and the water rises they will
raise their left hand holding the Bible and command the Seas to settle and
if that fails plan B is to run like hell and to blame Obama

Why would they blame Obama. Aren't they looking forward to the rapture?
Lituya

Mountain climber
Mar 26, 2018 - 04:17pm PT
seano

Mountain climber
none
Mar 27, 2018 - 04:42pm PT
That's a grim contrast, Lituya. Here are a couple more. Illecillewaet Glacier in Rogers Pass:

Robson summit pyramid:
DaveyTree

Trad climber
Fresno
Mar 29, 2018 - 02:44pm PT
Ever wonder if the planet used to be a lot warmer until we had an ice age and we are now returning to the norm?
WBraun

climber
Mar 29, 2018 - 07:21pm PT
Dumb ass scientist trying to save the planet that they originally fuked up but can't even save themselves or anyone else ......

Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Apr 3, 2018 - 11:08am PT
Actually,
climate change is a bot. It never listens to the deniers, nor does it attempt to explain what they refuse to accept. It just continues to accelerate.
The effects are already starting to become difficult to deal with, especially when combined with population growth. That will continue for the next couple hundred years at our present track, despite all denials and attempts to ignore science. Global yearly emissions just increased 1.4% in 2017.
Coincidentally, those who oppose family planning are often the same deniers.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Apr 4, 2018 - 02:33pm PT
giddyup giddyup 409
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Apr 6, 2018 - 07:18am PT
Oh no!

Another smoking gun!!!

I wonder if it'll be as damaging as the plaintiff's "smoking gun" in the Big Oil vs. SF/Oakland suit.
john hansen

climber
Apr 8, 2018 - 04:50pm PT

10 points in five years

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/index.html
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Apr 12, 2018 - 01:18am PT
https://www.bing.com/search?q=lampshade%20on%20fire%20%20lyrics&qs=n&form=QBRE&sp=-1&pq=lampshade%20on%20fire%20lyrics&sc=5-24&sk=&cvid=C60E0E6C4FC745E6903FAA7078E8397C
Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Apr 12, 2018 - 10:14am PT
Anyone going car-free yet? Huh? Time for another trip to Kalymos then South Africa for some rad. #Globtrottingadventureclimbers! #VANLIFE!

Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Apr 12, 2018 - 11:22am PT
Lots of people and climbers I know have greatly reduced their GHG emissions. It's not an all or nothing approach. Some have a Prius, some have an electric + solar panels, some ride a bike or e-bike a lot, commute less far (worse housing). Many do not galivant much around the world on excessive vacations. All of those behavoirs will continue to advance if we keep pushing policies to favor them, and disincentivize GHGs. Guess what: 6 feet of sea level rise is worse than 2 feet. Surprise surprise.

The illogical argument that reducing impact is not good enough is usually just a rationalization to justify your own selfishness. Rich people will generally use more resources than poor. That's not hypocrisy in a society where greed is the religion. So you are just attempting to set up a fake excuse for your own desires. Nothing more than the typical "but what about Hillary". If you don't like the normal outcome of capitalism, you will have to set up an economy where everyone is paid the exact same amount, and we ban: first class flying, all private jets, large houses, jacuzzis, non gas-miser vehicles, all recreational trucks, all RVs, etc. However if you live in your vehicle or RV, you may drive it up to 10 miles per week. After that it will be disabled by big brother. Under your system, sort of like Cuba, everyone will get ~100 kW hrs of fossil fuel powered electricity maximum per person per month. After that any non green electicity is cut off.

Or rather than this all or nothing implied approach,
we can continue to push a stronger movement towards green power and lowered GHG emissions. The government only needs to provide a system of incentives, updated as needed, and then each person can make their own choices, while still lowering overall GHG emissions.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Apr 12, 2018 - 11:40am PT
A criminal use of power by conservatives;

Koch vs. California: These Groups Are Pushing Pruitt to Undo the State’s Right to Regulate Auto Emissions

https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/04/10/koch-nichols-scott-pruitt-strip-california-waiver-regulate-auto-emissions
jogill

climber
Colorado
Apr 12, 2018 - 02:38pm PT
Preaching to the choir, I fear.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Apr 12, 2018 - 03:37pm PT
basically we need a ration system for gasoline (reminds one of WW2)

How about a progressive tax?

20 cents/gal for the first 500 gallons per year. Increase by 20 cents at each 500 gal. milestone. Make allowances business or special needs travel.

Forget about CAFE standards. Let the Yukon/Suburban/Sequoia loves pay a fat premium.

Lituya

Mountain climber
Apr 13, 2018 - 12:08pm PT
It's refreshing to read anything on the topic published by other disciplines. And this is probably one of the most rhetorically brilliant and convincing pieces I've read on human impact in a while.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/04/are-we-earths-only-civilization/557180/

It’s not often that you write a paper proposing a hypothesis that you don’t support. Gavin and I don’t believe the Earth once hosted a 50-million-year-old Paleocene civilization. But by asking if we could “see” truly ancient industrial civilizations, we were forced to ask about the generic kinds of impacts any civilization might have on a planet. That’s exactly what the astrobiological perspective on climate change is all about.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Apr 14, 2018 - 11:42am PT
interesting article in Science
Convergent evidence for widespread rock nitrogen sources in Earth’s surface environment

B. Z. Houlton, S. L. Morford, R. A. Dahlgren

Abstract
Nitrogen availability is a pivotal control on terrestrial carbon sequestration and global climate change. Historical and contemporary views assume that nitrogen enters Earth’s land-surface ecosystems from the atmosphere. Here we demonstrate that bedrock is a nitrogen source that rivals atmospheric nitrogen inputs across major sectors of the global terrestrial environment. Evidence drawn from the planet’s nitrogen balance, geochemical proxies, and our spatial weathering model reveal that ~19 to 31 teragrams of nitrogen are mobilized from near-surface rocks annually. About 11 to 18 teragrams of this nitrogen are chemically weathered in situ, thereby increasing the unmanaged (preindustrial) terrestrial nitrogen balance from 8 to 26%. These findings provide a global perspective to reconcile Earth’s nitrogen budget, with implications for nutrient-driven controls over the terrestrial carbon sink.




this is an interesting article on a number of ways. First it helps to describe an important cycle in Earth System models, the Nitrogen cycle. Nitrogen is an important resource for plants, and a huge amount of contemporary nitrogen is produced by humans.

The paper also points out that nitrogen availability controls plant growth and limits the amount of carbon plants can use, thus limits on natural sequestration.

When Dyson concluded global warming was "no big deal" because if it were happening all we'd have to do is plant trees, he didn't consider the fact that trees also need nutrients, and lacking those nutrients, the trees don't grow.

This makes a much more nuanced case regarding carbon dioxide as a "fertilizer," plants can't grow without all the other nutrients too, no matter what the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Ksolem

Trad climber
Monrovia, California
Apr 14, 2018 - 12:28pm PT
t seems to me that the only thing that's going to "save" humanity at this point is a massive population decrease via either pandemic/disease, crop failure, or war(s).

Then again, carbon capture is becoming a "thing" so maybe we can scale that up in a hurry. The catholic church needs to join the modern age and get off the anti-birthcontrol madness. We need less humans on this planet, not more. Even if climate change wasn't an issue, resource shortages will be.

"...or war(s)."

By far the least desirable option since a war large enough to significantly reduce population will be nuclear, the damage to the ecology will likely be irreparable. If one of our 18 Ohio Class ballistic missile subs unloads that is 192-288 warheads that make Hiroshima look like a firecracker. The Trident missiles carry 8-12 warheads with up to 475 kt and a range of up to 7K miles (Hiroshima was 12-15 kt.)

And yes, the Catholic Church is a morally bankrupt institution. They still teach that contraception is a sin in third world countries around the world. Despicable.

Sorry, I know the nuke stats are OT, but I don't think a lot of people understand the insane destructive power we have.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Apr 14, 2018 - 07:17pm PT
Interesting piece. More bad news--on top of the problem of a human population that has grown from 2bn-->7.5bn since Dr. Haber began fixing Nitrogen from the atmosphere and turning it into fertilizer. (And gassing Allied soldiers.) Science, Darwinism and Malthusian economics have brought us to this place. Hopefully there are some good solutions forthcoming from an interdisciplinary perspective--that don't involve humans adopting lemming-like behavior.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Apr 14, 2018 - 10:28pm PT
"...on top of the problem of a human population that has grown from 2bn-->7.5bn ... Hopefully there are some good solutions forthcoming from an interdisciplinary perspective--that don't involve humans adopting lemming-like behavior."

Unbounded reproduction is "lemming-like behavior."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lemming
"The Norway lemming and brown lemming are two of the few vertebrates which reproduce so quickly that their population fluctuations are chaotic,[1][2] rather than following linear growth to a carrying capacity or regular oscillations...."

"Lemmings have become the subject of a widely popular misconception that they commit mass suicide when they migrate by jumping off cliffs. It is not a mass suicide but the result of their migratory behavior. Driven by strong biological urges, some species of lemmings may migrate in large groups when population density becomes too great. They can swim and may choose to cross a body of water in search of a new habitat. In such cases, many may drown if the body of water is so wide as to stretch their physical capabilities to the limit. This and the unexplained fluctuations in the population of Norwegian lemmings gave rise to the misconception.[8][9]"
Lituya

Mountain climber
Apr 14, 2018 - 10:46pm PT
A population expanding in relation to available resources is what drove 20th century growth and, by extension, climate change. Resources made available through science. And it continues. My poor metaphor aside, I have come to believe that science will continue to squeeze resources here until the inevitable collapse or contraction. Unless folks in your discipline somehow manage to redefine the rules related to c.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Apr 14, 2018 - 11:11pm PT
don't hold your breath on physicists figuring out a way around the "carrying capacity" of the planet.

getting people to stop reproducing would be a start, however, everyone holds that right to be fundamental.

that is a tragic paradox.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Apr 14, 2018 - 11:23pm PT
Err, sorry, I meant the other "c." As in we're stuck here on Earth and generally screwed if nature is truly restricted by the speed of light. I guess even if we could redefine that we'd still get swallowed up by the entropy beyond?

No doubt, better idea to make this world a great place to live while we're here. A pretty complicated shift required.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Apr 14, 2018 - 11:38pm PT
fantasizing about escaping the planet is just a form of escapism, one which avoids dealing with the difficult problems that face us.

considering the energy requirements to escape the planet you'd easily satisfy local energy needs and achieve sustainability, if the population was stable.

interestingly, one might view the growth of science and technology as dependent on the growth of the population, the more people there are, the more smart people there are, and with current technologies, all the people are connected, which is a limit (people can't get more connected).

so as the population begins to decrease, the ability to solve problems will also, another possible paradox based on a different way to see the "science revolution" you allude to.

there are limits, as implicitly expressed in your escape fantasy, and confronting those limits will dominate our future.
Ksolem

Trad climber
Monrovia, California
Apr 15, 2018 - 12:56pm PT
The good news is that since the mid 1960's the annual growth rate is falling fast, and the UN estimates that somewhere around 2100 our population will peak and begin to drop.

The bad news is that there will be over 11B of us by then. Or not.

The UN World Population Project projects that between this year and 2050 26 African countries will double in population.

With goods and people moving about the planet in ever greater numbers, I predict (from my armchair,) a pandemic of unthinkable proportions.

Lituya

Mountain climber
Apr 15, 2018 - 03:16pm PT
interestingly, one might view the growth of science and technology as dependent on the growth of the population, the more people there are, the more smart people there are, and with current technologies, all the people are connected, which is a limit (people can't get more connected).

I believe this is probably true--but then again there are likely vast numbers of brilliant individuals who go through life with unrealized and/or unrecognized capabilities. Probably many who remain unconnected too. A smaller world population would have to do a better job helping people aspire, but I suspect there would still be more than enough "smarts" to do the science.

The economy and infrastructure that supports science is another matter?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Apr 20, 2018 - 07:05pm PT
PNAS February 21, 2017. 201611576
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/02/14/1611576114


Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change

Gerrad D. Jones, Boris Droz, Peter Greve, Pia Gottschalk, Deyan Poffet, Steve P. McGrath, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Pete Smith and Lenny H. E. Winkel

Abstract

Deficiencies of micronutrients, including essential trace elements, affect up to 3 billion people worldwide. The dietary availability of trace elements is determined largely by their soil concentrations. Until now, the mechanisms governing soil concentrations have been evaluated in small-scale studies, which identify soil physicochemical properties as governing variables. However, global concentrations of trace elements and the factors controlling their distributions are virtually unknown. We used 33,241 soil data points to model recent (1980–1999) global distributions of Selenium (Se), an essential trace element that is required for humans. Worldwide, up to one in seven people have been estimated to have low dietary Se intake. Contrary to small-scale studies, soil Se concentrations were dominated by climate–soil interactions. Using moderate climate-change scenarios for 2080–2099, we predicted that changes in climate and soil organic carbon content will lead to overall decreased soil Se concentrations, particularly in agricultural areas; these decreases could increase the prevalence of Se deficiency. The importance of climate–soil interactions to Se distributions suggests that other trace elements with similar retention mechanisms will be similarly affected by climate change.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Apr 20, 2018 - 07:10pm PT
Science 20 Apr 2018: Vol. 360, Issue 6386, pp. 317-320
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/360/6386/317.full

Unexpected reversal of C3 versus C4 grass response to elevated CO₂ during a 20-year field experiment

Peter B. Reich, Sarah E. Hobbie, Tali D. Lee, Melissa A. Pastore

Abstract
Theory predicts and evidence shows that plant species that use the C₄ photosynthetic pathway (C₄ species) are less responsive to elevated carbon dioxide (eCO₂) than species that use only the C₃ pathway (C₃ species). We document a reversal from this expected C₃-C₄ contrast. Over the first 12 years of a 20-year free-air CO₂ enrichment experiment with 88 C₃ or C₄ grassland plots, we found that biomass was markedly enhanced at eCO₂ relative to ambient CO₂ in C₃ but not C₄ plots, as expected. During the subsequent 8 years, the pattern reversed: Biomass was markedly enhanced at eCO₂ relative to ambient CO₂ in C₄ but not C₃ plots. Soil net nitrogen mineralization rates, an index of soil nitrogen supply, exhibited a similar shift: eCO₂ first enhanced but later depressed rates in C₃ plots, with the opposite true in C₄ plots, partially explaining the reversal of the eCO₂ biomass response. These findings challenge the current C₃-C₄ eCO₂ paradigm and show that even the best-supported short-term drivers of plant response to global change might not predict long-term results.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Apr 20, 2018 - 07:21pm PT
on shipping:

UN body adopts climate change strategy for shipping

TLP

climber
Apr 21, 2018 - 09:47am PT
Hopefully there are some good solutions forthcoming

There is one, which should be palatable to nearly all political/social persuasions (with one very notable exception): educate kids, especially girls. As summarized here: http://www.earth-policy.org/data_highlights/2011/highlights13 increasing the percentage of girls who attain secondary education correlates strongly with reduced fertility. It's good research, multiple studies, not just this one source. It's a great solution because it does not entail imposing restrictions, but rather, just providing something positive.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Apr 21, 2018 - 06:14pm PT
A good friend just got back from Africa where he said it rained for three weeks straight in a desert that has not seen rain in many years. He retreated to South Africa where it was going through a heat cycle that set records and trees were still very green.
It is fall there.
Meanwhile over here it was the second coldest April ever recorded with over 20 record temps recorded. 80 mph winds .

Daily I would check temps in Fairbanks,warmer than Rochester a majority of the time.

Climate Change is a hoax.

Scientists are out of work losing thousands.

Fossil fuel corporations recording billion dollar profits.



neverwas

Mountain climber
ak
Apr 21, 2018 - 11:02pm PT
Speaking of Fairbanks... This winter was extraordinarily warm, if you were to ignore most of the past 10 or 15 years. It maybe reached -30 for a day or two, vs the normally dependable several weeks of -40 or -50 or colder that used to be. New this year was several weeks of 'lake effect' snow coming at us from the west, courtesy of the ice-free or ice-lean Chukchi and Bering seas, and lacking any mountains to wring out the moisture before our modest uplands. The deep snow and warmer temps are doing nothing to help maintain the status quo of frozen soils (read: muck), so we can expect increased thawing to destabilize roads and other structures. On the plus side, the skiing's been great, fatbiking not so bad either, and the mosquitos seem to have taken a real hit over the past several years (sorry, birds). Kind of makes one yearn for the quaint old days of denier theories of summing several natural cycles to explain warmer temps. That argument sort of denies itself after a while.

Here are a couple of mountains and a bike pic or two to be less depressing...

wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Apr 22, 2018 - 07:25am PT
Crust riding does rule.

Glad you’re concerned.
monolith

climber
state of being
Apr 22, 2018 - 12:20pm PT
how can you describe a radically changing climate and follow it up by pronouncing that its a hoax?

Tune up your sarcasm detector.
Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Apr 25, 2018 - 07:19am PT
how can you describe a radically changing climate and follow it up by pronouncing that its a hoax?

To know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies, to hold simultaneously two opinions which cancelled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing in both of them, to use logic against logic, to repudiate morality while laying claim to it, to believe that democracy was impossible and that the Party was the guardian of democracy, to forget whatever it was necessary to forget, then to draw it back into memory again at the moment when it was needed, and then promptly to forget it again, and above all, to apply the same process to the process itself—that was the ultimate subtlety: consciously to induce unconsciousness, and then, once again, to become unconscious of the act of hypnosis you had just performed. Even to understand the word—doublethink—involved the use of doublethink.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Apr 25, 2018 - 07:31am PT
It was 80F in London the other day!
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Apr 25, 2018 - 08:01am PT
It ain't easy being green.

Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Apr 26, 2018 - 05:17am PT
Tabasco is concerned:
https://earther.com/tabasco-sauce-is-in-a-battle-for-its-very-survival-1825510123
When we walk out of the warehouse into the sun and breathable air, though, we come across one of the few conspicuous changes Avery Island has seen over the past century: a 17-foot levee that encircles 38 acres of the Tabasco operation. The company was forced to make this $5 million investment in 2005 after Hurricane Rita nearly flooded the facility.

Even though it’s only 152 feet above sea level at its peak, Avery Island is one the highest points in the Gulf Coast. A two hour drive west of New Orleans, it sits atop an enormous salt dome that bulges from the earth, elevating the land above the swamps and bayous that surround it. A generation ago, it was unthinkable that this natural fortress could be overcome by water. But Hurricane Rita’s threatening surges were a symptom of an immense shift in the Gulf Coast, the result of decades of harsh land use practices and climate change.

“The waters are rising,” Osborn says.

Now, the McIlhennys are fighting to save the island to which their family history and business are inextricably linked.
Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Apr 26, 2018 - 08:39am PT
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Apr 26, 2018 - 11:00am PT
You can now expect Ford to argue for rules that favor SUVs, trucks, and CUVs, since they are dropping all vehicles that get good gas mileage.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/abandon-car-ford-dropping-all-passenger-car-models-except-mustang
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Apr 26, 2018 - 11:13am PT
The Delta is sinking faster than the waters are rising, a 1/3 inch per year. This due to corps of engineering "harnessing" the Mississippi, preventing spring floods and stopping or drastically slowing the recharge of sediments into the Delta. New Orleans is sinking, but so is the whole Delta coast, under it's own weight.

Atlantis in the making, and not strictly a child of climate change.

And it is also losing its coastline because of the lack of sediment, which means a storm surge comes further and further inland.

I don't see how it is going to be possible to give New Orleans reasonable flood protection over the next 100+ years. Same with southern Florida.

But I expect tax payers will pay hundreds of billions in a futile attempt.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
May 4, 2018 - 12:07pm PT
government policies matter.
More on Ford switch to SUVs & trucks - easy to pass CAFE rules.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/the-real-reason-ford-is-phasing-out-its-sedans/ar-AAwHSHJ?ocid=spartanntp
Lituya

Mountain climber
May 7, 2018 - 12:42pm PT
Interesting piece:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/tourism-nearly-a-tenth-of-global-co2-emissions/ar-AAwTrKu?OCID=ansmsnnews11
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
May 11, 2018 - 11:22pm PT
One of the creepier conclusions drawn by scientists studying the Anthropocene—the proposed epoch of Earth’s geologic history in which humankind’s activities dominate the globe—is how closely today’s industrially induced climate change resembles conditions seen in past periods of rapid temperature rise.

“If an industrial civilization had existed on Earth many millions of years prior to our own era, what traces would it have left and would they be detectable today?”

Finally, solid scientific PROOF that the Nephilim really existed!

And it's really a great relief, because the Nephilim caused comparable global warming back then, yet we're here today, so, well, you can draw the obvious conclusion for yourself.

I am thankful every day for the Nephilim. They show us the way.
WBraun

climber
May 14, 2018 - 05:49pm PT
Nothing has changed.

The world is still st00pid as hell .......
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
May 14, 2018 - 06:03pm PT
^^^ LOL, no doubt, my friend. No doubt.

Sadly, I must shake my head and admit that I'm no different. That's not "false humility." It's just an acknowledgement of the fact that I think that I live in the depths of a very deep, dank epistemic hole. Even my most closely-held beliefs are "it seems to me that...." I don't believe that human beings are capable of any better.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
May 17, 2018 - 04:55pm PT
Someone in east Asia has started new production of banned CFCs.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/05/16/someone-somewhere-is-making-a-banned-chemical-that-destroys-the-ozone-layer-scientists-suspect/?utm_term=.42667e8424e3

Not that this is a reason for everyone else to ruin the world.
The cheaters will be caught.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
May 18, 2018 - 08:19pm PT
What will the duck eat when insects disappear...?
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Jun 1, 2018 - 12:51pm PT
NASA’s newest carbon-observing mission in orbit, launched in 2014, is the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-invested-in-cracking-earth-s-carbon-puzzle
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Jun 1, 2018 - 05:07pm PT
A greenhouse gas is billowing into the atmosphere...
Not exactly.
as I linked on May 17,
CFC-11 (Freon) main problem is to deplete ozone, which allows more UV radiation to reach the surface. Its direct effect as a GHG is a second problem.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/05/180516162520.htm

still being sold in China
http://www.cbc.ca/radio/quirks/may-26-2018-cheating-on-the-ozone-treaty-nano-nutrients-for-crops-why-birds-almost-died-out-1.4675194/scientists-discover-secret-polluters-may-be-eroding-the-ozone-layer-1.4675211
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Jun 5, 2018 - 04:44pm PT

This morning.
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Jun 6, 2018 - 06:58am PT
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201804

Arctic Ocean ice changes from 1984:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2018/05/Figure_4ad_correctedV2.png

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jun 6, 2018 - 09:18am PT
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/360/6391/877

A 550,000-year record of East Asian monsoon rainfall from ¹⁰Be in loess

J. Warren Beck, Weijian Zhou, Cheng Li, Zhenkun Wu, Lara White, Feng Xian, Xianghui Kong, Zhisheng An

Abstract
Cosmogenic ¹⁰Be flux from the atmosphere is a proxy for rainfall. Using this proxy, we derived a 550,000-year-long record of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall from Chinese loess. This record is forced at orbital precession frequencies, with higher rainfall observed during Northern Hemisphere summer insolation maxima, although this response is damped during cold interstadials. The ¹⁰Be monsoon rainfall proxy is also highly correlated with global ice-volume variations, which differs from Chinese cave δ¹⁸O, which is only weakly correlated. We argue that both EASM intensity and Chinese cave δ¹⁸O are not governed by high-northern-latitude insolation, as suggested by others, but rather by low-latitude interhemispheric insolation gradients, which may also strongly influence global ice volume via monsoon dynamics.
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Jun 8, 2018 - 03:36pm PT


http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2018/05/Figure_4ad_correctedV2.png

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Jun 13, 2018 - 01:39pm PT
Global climate change, fueled by skyrocketing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, is siphoning oxygen from today's oceans at an alarming pace (similiar to the) Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (T-OAE), an interval of global oceanic deoxygenation characterized by a mass extinction of marine organisms that occurred in the Early Jurassic Period.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180611160510.htm
zBrown

Ice climber
Jun 13, 2018 - 09:33pm PT


Believe it or not, there’s a clear bright side here. Quickly slash emissions, and the ice shelves should still remain stable across most of the continent. Doing so would require an unprecedented era of global cooperation, but the collaborative research taking place right now in Antarctica — an effort shared by dozens of scientists from 17 countries in this week’s update alone — could serve as inspiration. It’s a symbol of what’s possible when people work together for a common cause.


Hulbe, whose first trip to Antarctica was in 1991 but was not directly involved with this week’s report, sees it partly as the culmination of what she’s been working for her entire life. In her view, the way the report is framed — as a stark choice presented to humanity — “accomplishes something that charts and graphs never will.”

In narrative prose unusual for a formal scientific study, the researchers imagine what Antarctica might be like in 2070 — with and without rapid cuts to emissions. Given the incredible size of the Antarctic ice sheets, actions taken in the next decade, the researchers conclude, will reverberate for millennia.
Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Jun 14, 2018 - 06:51am PT
Malamute:
Do we do nothing and just try to live it up until the day of our demise, or do we try to stave off our extinction by changing things that we know contribute to climate change, like greenhouse gases?

Fair enough. Who's going car-free? No more road trips, bros. You sell your car yet? Until we take PERSONAL responsibility, as you say, it's all sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Thanks.

I'm hear all week.

BAd
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Jun 14, 2018 - 11:27am PT

Fair enough. Who's going car-free? No more road trips, bros. You sell your car yet? Until we take PERSONAL responsibility, as you say, it's all sound and fury, signifying nothing.

I salute those that take PERSONAL responsibility to try and change society for the better.

But for something like climate change, a few people making a few personal decisions isn't going to come close to solving the issue.

Society needs to take a COLLECTIVE issue to get serious.

For instance, I would support policies and politicians to make a real difference.

Ramping up a carbon tax would be a good start. Say over the next 20~30 years, have a carbon tax that ramps up to $100~$200 per ton of CO2 equivalent.

No picking winners or losers. Just sit back and watch the magic of the free market come up with solutions.

Making sure people can't game the system, for instance with fake offsets, is an issue. But I think that issue is far more tractable than the politics.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Jun 14, 2018 - 05:34pm PT

The loss of the Antarctic ice sheet is responsible for 7.6 millimeters of sea level rise since 1992, according to the latest assessment of the polar ice cap. The rate of loss has tripled since 2012.

According to the latest data, the loss of Antarctic ice is accelerating. As a result, the rate of sea level rise is also increasing. Prior to 2012, the polar ice cap was shedding 76 billion tons of ice per year. Between 2012 and 2017, the ice sheet lost an average of 219 billion tons of ice per year.

https://www.upi.com/Science_News/2018/06/14/Antarctic-Ice-Sheet-losses-fueling-sea-level-rise-study-shows/8201528992615/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bridaineparnell/2018/06/14/seeing-is-believing-satellites-show-antarctic-ice-loss-has-tripled-in-6-years/#372847bf1d3a

https://www.npr.org/2018/06/13/619543532/antarctica-has-lost-more-than-3-trillion-tons-of-ice-in-25-years

Jay S

Mountain climber
Silver Gate, Mt
Jun 19, 2018 - 06:19pm PT
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/signs-of-global-warming-are-all-around-2018-06-19/
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Jun 19, 2018 - 07:00pm PT
We are in the Holocene, it is getting warmer.. and has been for the last 11,000 years, but we won't be out of the ice age until all the ice is gone.. then the Earth will be back to normal, let me know.

monolith

climber
state of being
Jun 19, 2018 - 07:17pm PT
Nope, temps have been declining during the holocene for the last 7k+ years, that is until man started burning fossil fuels at a high rate.

And no, the ice doesn't disappear entirely during the interglacials, it just recedes towards the poles.
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Jun 20, 2018 - 11:58pm PT
in 1973, the first earth day declared there was a statistical inevitability of a great die off, including 10 million americans, sometime in the 1990s.. Paul Earlich made a ton of money off bad "science."

Following are "inconvenient" facts you cannot manipulate:

Earth high ambient temperature, now attempted to be buried by surface temp data, was set at the Furnace Creek Weather station 10 July 1913. The African temp record was disallowed as inaccurate, as it was measured over pavement. note that new weather stations are being built in hot places to set new "records" where there is no old data to compare it to... meanwhile weather stations that were rural, like Denver as an example, are now urbanized and wishing the urban heat dome, of course raising the temperature as expected. but even with all the dishonest data collection:

Earth's record for most consecutive days over 100 F (37.8 C) 160 days, Marble Bar, Western Australia, 31 October 1923 - 7 April 1924.

Earth's record for most consecutive days above 120 F (48.9 C) 43 days, Furnace Creek, Death Valley, California, July 6 - August 17 1917.. 101 years ago for you scholars.
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Jun 21, 2018 - 12:10am PT
do you guys know why Yosemite Valley is flat on the bottom and not U shaped as most Glacial Valleys are??

Four separate and distinct recessional moraines.. each records a period of warming, and a long period of stability, then another warming period... Yosemite was full of ice 70,000 years ago. It got warmer.
the moraines, acted as dams and they silted in, the valley has a flat bottom.

or why does Manhattan have high rise only in the south?? Because the north is moraine, unstable.. it was the edge of the continental ice sheet, which covered Canada, it got warmer.. both, a few years before Henry Ford, Eli Whitney, or Linus Pauling.

and speaking of the smartest guy.. you might also want to check out this:

Science is the search for truth, that is the effort to understand the world: it involves the rejection of bias, of dogma, of revelation, but not the rejection of morality.
Linus Pauling

anti, if you are also anti me, i would count myself on the correct side of the fence. i did at least crack one book as, during masters studies in Water Resource Management, i co authored a book on the Colorado River Drainage Basin, so i think we can say i at least opened that one. and the fools at Woods Hole, Stanford, and the Army Map Service all tried to recruit me from just that one word i read, pretty cool huh?

so Moose, if death and mayhem are 20 years away, and Al Gore has been crying death and mayhem for the last 15 or more, what is a milestone.. where will we be in five years?? Ten years ago we were told Polar Bear populations would plummet, they are up. tell me something that we can visit in five years, that if you are not correct, you will admit it.. Last year we had Yosemite flood predictions to three significant figures! They added a figure after the decimal because they were so perfect at predicting runoff 5 days before the storm, three significant figures implies accuracy to within one half of one percent... I said no way, and mentioned that NOAH had been as much as 60% inaccurate in the past.. i was ridiculed and passed off as "that was before high tech" but guess what, when you looked at stream flow, they were 60% inaccurate.. so, i place your hysteria in the same category as the bird flu scare, the Y2K scare, the earth day overpopulation scare, the heterosexual aids death.. remember 20% of heterosexuals were supposed to die by 2010?? All the science grant chasing alarmists, are never held accountable for bad science.. science would deliver flood predictions that were low, one half of the time, but flood predictions are never low.. that is not science, it is something else.
monolith

climber
state of being
Jun 21, 2018 - 06:27am PT
Ed, by citing weather events you are confusing weather and climate.

Here's a link that explains the difference.

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/weather_climate.html
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jun 21, 2018 - 09:02am PT
Last year we had Yosemite flood predictions to three significant figures! They added a figure after the decimal because they were so perfect at predicting runoff 5 days before the storm, three significant figures implies accuracy to within one half of one percent... I said no way, and mentioned that NOAH had been as much as 60% inaccurate in the past.. i was ridiculed and passed off as "that was before high tech" but guess what, when you looked at stream flow, they were 60% inaccurate..

actually, you were provided a link to the uncertainty analysis and the NOAA statements concerning accuracy of their flood warnings and the use of data from that particular web site.

This did not suit your particular narrative at the time (which appears to be the same narrative now).
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Jun 21, 2018 - 09:15am PT
Ed, posting the prediction, with three significant figures, implied the level of accuracy. and, they were 60% inaccurate!! i looked at the storm at the same time and said less that 17 feet, when the prediction was 23.7. Why is it so difficult to admit the models are bad??

If half of the predictions are not under, and all are overstated, then clearly "science" is not what is going on.

and, Ed, with all your disclaimers and all your computations, i do not recall you actually making a prediction before the flood that was more accurate than NOAH's, or mine. do results count in your calculations? When, how bad how many times, do you need to be so demonstrably wrong, before you simply say, yes the model is bad instead of calling inaccuracy within the limits of uncertainty,,, if i say my model is 99% uncertain do i have a free pass?? At some point there has to be some accountability for bad science. How far off were they again this spring, you tell me, you are the stats man.
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Jun 21, 2018 - 09:25am PT
Monolith, when you do not acknowledge that weather, is what makes up climate, then you have lost sight of reality.. when the theory, and the facts do not match, it is not the facts that are wrong.


Still waiting for someone to acknowledge a track record of alarmist bad science. Including Paul Erlich.

Still waiting since according to the above, we will all die by 2037, what milestones in 5 years can we set??


Anti, when one runs out of reasonable arguments, then one switches to personal attacks, i am pleased. and still thankful to be on my side of the fence. i assume that you will no longer reply since it is a waste of your time.. also pleased.
monolith

climber
state of being
Jun 21, 2018 - 09:36am PT
Ed, you should learn how averages work. Citing an outlier is just cherry picking.

BTW, are you trying to claim we are not warming by citing some hot weather somewhere 100 years ago?

But you said previously we are in the Holocene and it's natural to warm until we run out of ice.

Try to keep your claims consistent.
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Jun 21, 2018 - 09:46am PT
Mono, I am saying that the short term 100 year weather watching is stupid. In Geologic terms, yes climate is warming. So we can also invalidate all the sensationalist recent weather "data" blaming global warming? Is that true?? Level playing field would demand we remove weather events on BOTH sides of the argument, not just one.


Still waiting for someone to acknowledge a track record of alarmist bad science. Including Paul Erlich.

Still waiting since according to the above, EDIT correctionMoose says 100 million will die by 2037, what milestones in 5 years can we set??
monolith

climber
state of being
Jun 21, 2018 - 09:48am PT
Glad you are starting go get it, Ed.

We cite climate, not individual weather events.

And I don't know any climate scientist that claims we are all dying by 2037. You are just making stuff up.
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Jun 21, 2018 - 09:55am PT
EdBannister, you will know when it comes (if you live 20 more years), trust me.

A hundred million of dying and a billion of starving starving people will wake you up.

courtesy of Mossedrool higher on this same page, i can't make stuff up that stupid.


Meanwhile there remains no accountability in the global warming alarmist claims..

Here is another example, sea ice in the north is shrinking, Global Warming alarmist claims were the then Polar Bear population of about 22,500 would plunge to the level of probable extinction! 2015 surveys, now complete, show a population of above 28,000.

https://polarbearscience.com/2017/02/15/baffin-bay-and-kane-basin-polar-bears-not-declining-concludes-new-report/

When your "model" is political, not scientific, it really is not science.
monolith

climber
state of being
Jun 21, 2018 - 09:57am PT
There are 7.6 billion people in the world.

Moose didn't claim 7.6 billion people would die by 2037.
EdBannister

Mountain climber
13,000 feet
Jun 21, 2018 - 10:05am PT
oh you are right, he said just 100 million will die.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Jun 21, 2018 - 10:42am PT
Ed B,
it might help you to stop focusing on particular alarmist exact predictions, which are often oversimplified and distorted in most media.
There are thousands of good articles on big topics as this. It is your job to filter out the chaff. Most reporters are not climate scientists.
Exact causes of deaths from famine and strife can never be pinpointed.
But here is one example of a media source that has done some filtering of information. http://www.climatecentral.org/

Such inexactness does not change the overall consensus scientific predictions, which are a range of estimates depending on which scenario is chosen of how much GHGs we continue to emit. The emission rate is driven by how much we speed up shifting to green energy and conserving fossil fuels.
The direct impacts of an increased greenhouse effect are warming of air and sea (at different rates), which leads to both ice melting and sea level rise, and ocean acidity.

All of these are obviously already happening. And are caused and explained ENTIRELY by humans emitting GHGs. These are the FACTS. There is NO evidence of any other cause. Previous geological eras and ice ages did not have 7 billion high impact people changing the world.

Other effects are more secondary or indirect, such as changes in ocean currents, storm tracks, extreme weather, shifting of species towards the poles, etc. Some feedbacks can be multipliers such as releases from carbon sinks in the ocean and tundra.

And some effects such as how many people die are quite dependent on our responses such as migration, war, and aid.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Jun 21, 2018 - 10:55am PT
tell me something that we can visit in five years, that if you are not correct, you will admit it..

This general trend will continue. Certainly over 15 years. Very probably over 10. Most likely over 5.






August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Jun 24, 2018 - 12:57pm PT
Some day the property values for those at chronic risk of flooding from climate change will collapse.

I'm a little surprised that banks even give out 30-year mortgages for those locations. I know a lot of it comes down to government guarantees, either implicit or explicit. For instance, when insurance companies started upping rates to cover hurricane losses in Florida based on climate change, the state screamed bloody murder and started giving explicit government guarantees to cover catastrophic losses. This might be financially viable in 2018. But future Fl tax payers are now on the hook for whatever happens going forward. This is eventually going to go very poorly as ever larger bills come due.

But even if tax payers subsidize coastal home owners insurance, people aren't going to want to buy property that frequently floods. And even if it doesn't currently flood, once they start asking themselves, will I be able to sell this property in 10 or 20 years without taking a loss? It is easy to imagine a situation in which a trickle of home owners trying to get out turns into a stampede and millions of homes become worth less than the mortgage and owners start walking away from them and letting banks foreclose just like in 2008.

Bubbles can last a long time. Just as long as there is a greater fool to buy and this country has a lot of fools. But the tide will turn eventually.

Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Jun 26, 2018 - 09:55pm PT
The Grand Dragon, Imperial Wizard, and Exalted Cyclops in charge of all climate denialism has a new campaign of lies.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/19/climate/koch-brothers-public-transit.html
Lituya

Mountain climber
Jul 10, 2018 - 11:03pm PT
IMO, the only solution is an international treaty to phase out fossil fuel burning over the next 30-50 years. Start with internal combustion engines and move on to power plants. No "catch up" prescription for lagging economies e.g. Kyoto. Mandate new technology in stages.

Not sure how to solve the aviation problem. Or nitrogen-based fertilizer issue.

Like you said, it might be too late--but it's better than the present course.
NutAgain!

Trad climber
South Pasadena, CA
Jul 10, 2018 - 11:37pm PT
The kids who did this are the ones in charge of climate change policy in USA now:

[Click to View YouTube Video]

Of course it's a very serious issue and I was opportunistic in sharing this awesome video here for some levity... but there is a moral lesson that transfers nicely.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jul 11, 2018 - 06:09am PT
I'm looking for high ground (something out of the 1000yr flood plain), without surrounding slopes that could slide, in a sufficient rainfall zone to have a water supply and ability to grow some food, at elevation high enough to not be 120 degrees all summer, but somewhat protected from forest fires.

I don't even know where that would be. I'm all ears if you have suggestions.

Go East, old man.

Virginia is nice.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jul 11, 2018 - 08:44am PT
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north

Jul 10, 2018 - 08:53pm PT

Heat waves bother you? Under Trump climate policies, add another 12°F
America faces monster 131°F heat waves in the coming decades

Trump is to blame. Obviously.

Derp
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Jul 11, 2018 - 10:45am PT
I agree with you, trumpy is indeed the most powerful single person presently stopping progress on climate policy. And is therefore now to blame.
Only the sketchy brained would think otherwise.

He is now pushing all the BS put out over the last 30 years by the kochs, exxons, inhofes, bushes, heatlands, alecs, repugs, crichtons, watts, pruitts, fauxspews, etc.

more top deniers:
https://www.beforetheflood.com/explore/the-deniers/top-10-climate-deniers/

https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-deniers-in-trump-administration-2518894384.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/29/climate/google-search-climate-change.html

https://ecowarriorprincess.net/2018/03/key-tactics-climate-change-deniers-use-how-counter-climate-denial/

http://redgreenandblue.org/2018/06/14/climate-change-deniers-dont-want-businesses-adapt-thats-bad-business/

August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Jul 11, 2018 - 04:14pm PT
CO2 sequestration?

Clean energy?

Dream on, people, because if you open your eyes, you will see the truth, and it’s very scary.

There is no sense of emergency as people are distracted by the little things, like illegal immigration or abortion.

Even if we come up with a plan within the next 10 years, It will be too late anyway.

Enjoy the life when you still can.

I think it is foolish to put all our hopes on some game-changing technology saving us. But it is certainly possible that some game-changing technology might.

I think a middle age, heavy smoker with early stages of emphysema is a reasonable analogy. Yes, we need to cold quit cigarettes. Cold quitting won't repair the damage already done. Going from 2 packs a day to 1 pack a day will slow the disease progression. Maybe it will buy time for new technology. Maybe it will just buy a little time to adjust to the new normal.

The world in general and the US in particular has a lot of wealth and technology. There is lot that could be done to mitigate effects. But I don't see that we will have the political will to do so. An example that I given before, the country should plan on abandoning southern Florida. If it was done over the next hundred years, it wouldn't cost as much in lost property and destroyed lives as if we let it repeatedly flood before suddenly deciding after one flood too many to not rebuild this time.
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
Jul 11, 2018 - 04:20pm PT
There is no sense of emergency as people...

phagocytize their 10 trillionth burger.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Jul 11, 2018 - 04:22pm PT
IMO, the only solution is an international treaty to phase out fossil fuel burning over the next 30-50 years. Start with internal combustion engines and move on to power plants. No "catch up" prescription for lagging economies e.g. Kyoto. Mandate new technology in stages.

Not sure how to solve the aviation problem. Or nitrogen-based fertilizer issue.

Like you said, it might be too late--but it's better than the present course.

There are some things that markets are very good at. We don't need to outlaw internal combustion engines or decide ahead of time how to solve aviation CO2 production.

You just steadily ramp up a tax on CO2 equivalent and the market will solve everyone of these problems for you.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Jul 11, 2018 - 05:29pm PT
^^Respectfully, this is a bad idea. Getting government addicted to the revenue a "carbon tax" would generate would only make them a bigger part of the problem than they are now.

Although it pains me to say it, mandates are a more effective solution here. As long as they are even-handed, well-defined, and universal.

August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Jul 11, 2018 - 11:01pm PT
And why would you expect them to be even handed, we'll defined and universal?

How is that any more politically likely than a well run tax scheme?


Picking winners and losers is really problematic even by wonkish experts. When it is done by politicians who are bought by lobbyists, good luck with that...

I would be fine with a law that said that all money raised by such tax had to be evenly distributed back to US citizens and have the courts actually enforce that.

The reality is that I expect our political institutions to do jack and squat so we are only talking hypotheticals anyway.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Jul 12, 2018 - 01:41pm PT
A carbon fee should never be mentioned without calling it revenue neutral.
RNCT = revenue neutral carbon tax or RNCF = revenue neutral carbon fee.
Every dime it takes in would be paid back by lowering income taxes.
So the revenue net is zero. There is no new tax, it's a tax shift from low carbon users to high carbon users, to pay for external costs.

This carbon fee is not to be confused with fuel taxes for highway & transportation maintenance. That fuel tax needs to be increased just to pay for highways since the federal tax has not been increased in 30 years.

Mandates are usually easy to screw up with loopholes, exceptions, and massive bureaucracy. They amount to the government picking winners and losers instead of the market responding to proper incentives. Take the last act of Scott pruitt for instance, which was to say the EPA will allow an unlimited number of brand new trucks to be built with ancient polluting diesel engines. They actually pollute more than the total pollution caused by the VW diesel cheating.

Another example: energy storage. California decreed that pumped hydro does not count as green energy. but they do count batteries, which are far more expensive. This happens with mandates because insiders lobby for their pet projects.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Jul 14, 2018 - 11:00am PT
^^^

I still hope that someday the world will take serious steps to address the problem. As opposed to the rather mild steps we've seen so far.

But it is not my expectation.

As far as a carbon tax:

The market would respond far more efficiently to a carbon tax than to mandates. A carbon tax could certainly be revenue neutral. Either because other taxes were lowered or because you directly returned the money raised to the population as I suggested earlier.

There are real concerns about a carbon tax. If you increased a CO2 tax from say $10/ton up to $1000+/ton in 30 or 40 years. At the beginning it wouldn't raise much money, the tax would be too low. There would be a period where it would be raising a huge amount of money as the tax was high enough to bite but the market was still in the process of decarbonizing. Once the tax gets really high and the market has almost entirely shifted away from CO2 generating activities, the revenue would plummet. If you had cut taxes during the high carbon revenue years, you would then have the politically difficult issue of raising them back again.

That is why I think it may be better to take the amount of carbon tax raised each quarter, divide it by the population and return it to the people. Yes, the people will take a hit when the carbon revenue dwindles, but that is more politically manageable than trying to raise taxes back.

But I literally expect Miami to be underwater before any of this happens.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Jul 18, 2018 - 08:13pm PT
A mail carrier died of heat stroke on her route in Woodland Hills during that heatwave. It wasn't a walking route, but it was 117 and the mail trucks don't have AC.

Ironic, since AC is a big part of the problem.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 20, 2018 - 01:20am PT
Coal chutes for every apt in Stockholm. Musta been nice to breathe there in the winter...

AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Jul 20, 2018 - 07:04pm PT
The time scale is different. Volcano or asteroid will happen on a geological time scale. 2100 is a human time scale.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Jul 21, 2018 - 01:23pm PT
the last time co2 levels were at todays level sea level was 60 feet higher,
we are guaranteed 3.5'c increase in temperature by 2100
humans have never lived in a world this hot

xcon, I'm with you on this.

To the extent that most people focus on climate change at all, it is in the context of the year 2100. It's not like climate change is going to stop at that point in time. The amount of baked in sea level rise is huge. Its not clear how much will happen by 2100 but it will be 50+ feet on a time scale of centuries.

People freak out about what might happen to stored nuclear waste tens of thousands of years into the future, but won't lift their gaze above the year 2100 for climate change.

And I agree with the comments above. I don't think it very likely that climate change would make humans extinct. But it could certainly knock civilization back to medieval times.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jul 26, 2018 - 07:56pm PT
Alarmist propaganda?

[Click to View YouTube Video]
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Jul 27, 2018 - 02:15pm PT
Record-breaking heat is also wreaking havoc in California, where the wildfire season is already worse than usual

I don't think it is worse than"usual". This is the new normal.

Now I would agree that it is worse than the past. But that past is gone and it aint coming back.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 27, 2018 - 06:06pm PT
Become strict vegetarians or quit wringing your hands.

The meat industry is an environmental killer on countless levels, not the least of which is its effect on greenhouse gasses.

Here's a few scholarly articles on that subject. There are countless more.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/animal/article/mitigating-climate-change-the-role-of-domestic-livestock/4937AEA227D69068AA571905BBF433C5

https://www.cabdirect.org/cabdirect/abstract/20093312389

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-014-1104-5

From the above....

Not taking the rapid conversion of rain forests into cattle ranches into account, at least 18% of global greenhouse gas emissions are directly attributable to pigs, chickens, and cattle raised for human consumption. And, "We conclude that reduced ruminant meat and dairy consumption will be indispensable for reaching the 2 °C target with a high probability, unless unprecedented advances in technology take place."

So, if you're seriously wringing your hands, then put your diet where your mouth is. You won't get MANY people on board with draconian economically-questionable carbon "reduction" legislation until nationally we have a SERIOUS dialog about vegetarianism.

Seriously, if you're not going to immediately become a vegetarian, then you have nothing to complain about, because your version of GHG "reduction" is then NOTHING more than: "FORCE FIX what doesn't really affect me, even if you have to penalize people (not me, of course) to FIX 'the problem.'"

And, since you are NOT going to become a vegetarian due to GHG emissions, then you should contemplate the game-theory behind that choice and realize that it's writ large.

In short, quit complaining and revel in the world in which you die and your kids are left with insanely massive debt, an utterly broken political system, and a hot world with rising sea levels. It's soooo important to be staunchly partisan, so that we can ensure that our kids inherit disaster with "the other party" to blame!
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 27, 2018 - 06:18pm PT
MB, don’t fergit the millions of useless stop signs and traffic lights that our enlightened leaders
built while Europe was building roundabouts. All that idling, stopping, and jack rabbit starting
needlessly burns up hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil per day.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 27, 2018 - 06:36pm PT
^^^ Absolutely!

But, you know, carbon taxes and Cap and Trade will fix everything. Just give 'em a chance.

Edit: At least there should be a Federal law (right?) requiring all stop lights to be timed/synchronized to reduce stops on primary arteries. Here in Westminster, it's insane how often main arteries are brought to a stop in order to let one guy turn (right!) from a tiny side-street. Just try driving on 120th or Sheridan and see what I mean.

"Small" changes like that can have very large effects, not to mention the huge positive of reducing traffic congestion. But nooooo. It's either economic sanctions or "we're not taking the problem seriously."

So, become a vegetarian, or you're not taking the problem seriously.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 27, 2018 - 06:51pm PT
And if we adopted European standards of driver licensing, financial accountability, and auto
maintenance standards I bet that would take 40% of the cars off our roads in one swell foop!
But it’ll never happen cause the Democrats would scream DESCRIMINATION!
Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Jul 27, 2018 - 06:53pm PT
So I’m confused.

Mad says we should all individually (like a herd of Libertarians?) recognize the destructiveness of the meat industry and immediately become vegetarians if we are truly serious about climate change.

But then he cheers Reilly’s observation that enlightened (evil?) GOVERNMENT policies could have a positive impact.

Please advise.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 27, 2018 - 07:03pm PT
It's true that you're confused, Lennox. My point was neither of the "options" you have me saying.

My point is that purveyors of climate change hand-wringing won't lift a baby finger of their own to do what they could individually do to contribute to genuine solutions. I guess you missed my game-theory line.

And the expectation that government(s) is/are going to solve the problem misses that game-theory point on a grand scale. Always has; always will.

I advocate individual and local commitments. As overlapping spheres of influence occur, sweeping social changes take place organically with zero need of federal intervention.

But if you don't believe that, and you insist on the necessity of quick federal intervention, then AT LEAST have the decency to advocate EFFECTIVE federal intervention.

Wouldn't you rather live in a city that had synchronized lights than what the greater Denver metro area (and most US cities) has? Wouldn't you rather live in a city that provided countless excellent vegetarian restaurants rather than countless excellent steakhouses?

Ohhh... that last question is where the rubber meets the road regarding what people "should" do to "solve the problem."
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 27, 2018 - 07:04pm PT
xCon types drunkenly again.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Jul 27, 2018 - 07:12pm PT
Fed intervention is not going to happen thanks to corporate intervention ( bribes , campaign funding , trump tweet storms ) The American masses have no say in political outcomes...The 1% are calling the shots...Wake up droolers...
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 27, 2018 - 07:40pm PT
^^^ And there we have proof positive of why hand-wringing is all that such threads will ever amount to.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 27, 2018 - 07:53pm PT
xCon, y’all are constantly extolling the socialist paradises of Europe but when I actually explain to you what they are doing over there yer like all outraged. You better put on yer consistency knickers cause the ones yer wearing are getting all bunched up by yer confusion. At least poor people over there realize driving is a privilege.
Jorroh

climber
Jul 28, 2018 - 06:28am PT
'"My point is that purveyors of climate change hand-wringing won't lift a baby finger of their own to do what they could individually do to contribute to genuine solutions"

Addressing climate change requires collective action.

The "point" you are making above is completely idiotic.

If you want a "genuine solution" then maybe you shouldn't be supporting a political party that spent decades denying that climate change was even happening.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 28, 2018 - 08:03am PT
An LA Times article today notes a study by Bruce Schaller, author of “Unsustainable”, that the
rise of Lyft and Uber have resulted in significant increases in congestion (read pollution) in
major cities.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 28, 2018 - 12:41pm PT
Bullshit

Right back atcha.

Neener, neener, neener.

Stupid game, isn't it?

And I don't "support a party." If you knew ANYTHING about my posting history or could read with comprehension what I actually just posted in this very thread, you'd discover that I vehemently oppose BOTH of these sh|tty parties and virtually EVERYTHING they BOTH stand for.

If change doesn't occur organically, then you can kiss your change goodbye.
Jorroh

climber
Jul 28, 2018 - 01:08pm PT
'"And I don't "support a party"

Yes, that would be why you're continually spouting republican talking points.
Your blabber about health care, climate change and just about anything else is pure republican orthodoxy.

It's a given that none of us agree 100% with the positions of any political party, but the fact that you have to hide behind statements like the above is pretty spineless.


spectreman

Trad climber
Jul 28, 2018 - 01:26pm PT
Listening to anyone in the isolated heartland of America is for fools.

How you can live in a place that has minimal diversity, has no effect from rising sea levels or significant air pollution and think you know the wider problems of the world is inconceivable to me?

Why should residents of rural America know anything outside of their county that has minimal contact with the outside world?

Ever wonder why people who live in large cities, particularly in coastal ones with large immigrant populations and thousands of people speaking a myriad of languages all around them are tolerant of (peaceful) people different than themselves?

And the people all gunned up in bunkers in Oklahoma hate fureners and want to tell the people that know something how to run the country....


At least you're not a bigot or anything. (eye roll) Sheesh, listen to yourself.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 28, 2018 - 02:37pm PT
Your blabber about health care, climate change and just about anything else is pure republican orthodoxy.

It's a given that none of us agree 100% with the positions of any political party, but the fact that you have to hide behind statements like the above is pretty spineless.

How about some examples of these supposed "Republican talking points"?

LOL

And if you think that "having a spine" means selecting one of these pathetic, bought-and-paid-for parties and agreeing 98% with it, you have totally drunk the Kool-Aid poured out by that cluster-fornication.

You hear me denying climate change?

You hear me supporting the MIC and wanting to increase military spending?

You hear me decrying corporate regulation?

The list goes on and on.

About the only "Republican" position you EVER hear me take is saying that I haven't yet heard the "gun control" proposal that would have a measurable effect on gun-violence. That said, you HAVE heard me repeatedly offer compromise positions, such as an acceptance of universal background checks, even though I don't think that it would have a measurable effect.

In short, I'm about as far from "right" as I am from "left," and you are a VERY superficial thinker to box-and-package a person like me just so that you can justify being sweepingly dismissive.

I've come to learn from these threads and from discussions with self-proclaimed liberals that the liberal mindset regarding "discussion" is a zero-sum game. There are people that agree 90+% with you, and all the rest are THE ENEMY!

That's just retarded! Get a brain and start actually considering nuanced perspectives held by nuanced thinkers that you CAN'T neatly box-and-package (and thereby instantly dismiss as THE ENEMY).

Bottom line is that liberals have proposed NO viable solutions to climate change. If you think that the likes of Cap and Trade are going to change the world for the better, well, I've got some history of totalitarianism for you.

First of all, if you can't change your own lifestyle, so as to LIVE what you CLAIM to believe, then you can't expect anybody else to drink from the cup you're offering!

Become a vegetarian, to start, and then you'll have started to put your lifestyle where your mouth is. Until then, just stop wringing your hands about climate change and demanding that the feds FORCE people to do the "other things" that don't affect you.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jul 28, 2018 - 08:55pm PT
weird,

the solution to climate change is stop venting CO2 into the atmosphere at the rates we have been doing in the 20th century.

in fact, we have to decrease those rates.

I don't know if that is a liberal or a conservative solution. That is the solution.

Obviously, implementing that solution is going to be very tough. But to say there is no solution is ludicrous.

madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 28, 2018 - 10:14pm PT
I don't know if that is a liberal or a conservative solution. That is the solution.

Obviously, implementing that solution is going to be very tough. But to say there is no solution is ludicrous.

You're not proposing a "solution." You're stating the target, what we need to accomplish to "solve" the "problem" of climate change.

The "solution" is necessarily HOW you achieve that target.

You're saying something akin to "you solve the problem of mass murder by stopping people from firing bullets into crowds." But that's not the "solution." You've then just pushed the "solution" question back to what the real solution question is, which is: "How do you accomplish that?" Because if you can't answer that latter question, you haven't really offered a "solution" with your first "answer."

And there we have a mass of hand-wringing and zero-sum, blaming the other guy sorts of suggestions.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jul 28, 2018 - 10:21pm PT
no, that is the solution, don't be silly

there are a number of ideas on how to implement it, and certainly you can take your pot shots at each and every one.

your analogy is unusually sloppy logic for you, it is not at all akin to the solution to mass murder. We understand the how the climate is changing from a scientific standpoint, I don't think you'd say the same about mass murder.

given that understanding, the solution can be stated rather simply. How that solution is implemented is not at all simple.

Lituya

Mountain climber
Jul 28, 2018 - 10:45pm PT
Since nothing packs more easily accessible energy into a small and inexpensive package, I tend to deviate from my free-market ideals when it comes to coal & oil. The market won't shirk these sources on its own. As I've said before, I think reasonable, staged mandates--agreed to globally with no "catch-up" allowances for lesser-developed nations--spread out over the next three or four decades might be required.

What will also be required is a grand bargain with regard to the energy sources that replace carbon. A bargain where greens stand-down opposition to nuclear, hydro, solar, wind, tidal, or new exotics that may become available. Every one of these has an environmental price that will have to be paid. There's no free lunch.

And there's still the aviation problem.

Edit: Absolutely true that many of the people who post here could do more. Somewhere along the line it became a rite of passage to travel the world--despite the environmental cost. Ironically, these are often the very same people who soapbox the most.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 29, 2018 - 06:06am PT
your analogy is unusually sloppy logic for you, it is not at all akin to the solution to mass murder. We understand the how the climate is changing from a scientific standpoint, I don't think you'd say the same about mass murder.

given that understanding, the solution can be stated rather simply. How that solution is implemented is not at all simple.

Unusually dim-witted of you to not see the plain analogy. In fact, the problem of mass-shootings literally JUST IS some guy firing bullets into a crowd! That is totally well-understood. Stop the problem of bullets flying into crowds, and you've stopped the problem of mass-shootings, in EXACTLY the same way that stopping the pumping of GHG into the atmosphere stops the problem of man-made climate change. BOTH problems emerge from pumping something where it doesn't belong. The proximate causes of both are well-understood. And in BOTH cases, understanding the motivations and deeper causes IS the real problem that needs solving.

The "how" you are balking at in my analogy is literally the same sort of "how" problem as the "how to stop pumping GHG into the atmosphere." That's precisely where the devil's in the details.

We can keep dickering in this semantic way forever. Bottom line is that whether you call it a "solution" or a "goal" or something else, your "solution" does nothing more than imply my overarching point, which is that the HOW is where the rubber meets the road.

And the HOW is where liberals have doubled-down on zero-sum thinking.

I suggest hydro power, and I get howls of anguish: "NO MORE dams!"

I suggest nuclear power, and I get howls of rage: "You CAN'T be serious! Poison our environment even more?"

I suggest vegetarianism, which actually would have a significant effect. I get silent disbelief and straw-man responses.

In short, the only "solutions" I have seen from liberals are radically punitive and will likely have economic effects that will further gut the paying class that liberals need to keep paying for all the free crap they keep proposing. And the Republican "response" is: "Whatever you do, DO NOT touch our precious corporations in ANY way."

As I've said, neither party is serious about this, despite hand-wringing on one side and convenient denials on the other. But it's a net gain for the USA to get its energy as far removed from fossil fuels as possible as quickly as possible.

Even if the Republicans were correct, and there IS no man-made climate change, it would still be in the best interest of the USA to get off of fossil fuels as quickly as possible.

But if liberals won't embrace and individually LIVE the change they advocate, I really can't take their proposed punitive measures (that will, of course, conveniently affect "other entities" besides themselves) seriously. So, yeah, become vegetarians, and then I'll start to take your hand-wringing seriously.

At present, I honestly don't believe that most liberals are arguing in earnest. They just want there to "be" SOME "solution," and if that "solution" hurts corporations while having little measurable other effects, that would be just fine with them. Meanwhile, they can blame "deniers" for the fact that nothing substantive is being done, although they don't seem serious about non-punitive solutions. And anybody that suggests that hammering corporations for "carbon footprint" is missing the point, well, such a suggestion is met with more howls of rage: "Just Republican talking points; save the precious corporations BS."

See, the issue is NOT how much FF-powered electricity this or that corporation is using; that "carbon footprint" is just a symptom of the actual problem. And that underlying problem is NOT solved by just getting companies to "reduce" their electricity usage, which, by extension it is presumed will reduce their carbon footprint.

The issue is where that electricity is coming from, which at present is about 78% from fossil fuels. To really reduce EVERYBODY'S carbon footprint, including that of companies, you've got to radically change where our electricity is coming from.

Clean, modern nuclear power could provide massive amounts of electricity, part of which could be used to produce more and cheaper solar panels and wind turbines (that are at present a net carbon producer due to the FF-powered electricity used in their production), etc. Meanwhile, other approaches could also produce results, such as tidal energy.

We need to rethink HOW we are generating electricity in this nation. Solve the problem of mostly FF-based electricity in the USA, and you no longer need Cap and Trade or other punitive measures, because then electricity-usage becomes properly decoupled from carbon footprint.

Couple that with a significant reduction in the consumption of factory-farmed meat, and you have the "solution" you're looking for, at least insofar as the USA can control it's own aspect of the global problem.

And if you can't find a way to do the above paragraphs, you can impose all the punitive measures you wish, and you'll just "reduce" GHG production somewhat, probably not even a significant amount, while continuing to be enmeshed in the actually fundamental problem.

So, your "solution" really means almost entirely: "Get USA electricity production off of fossil fuels asap." But that "solution" really means: A combination of nuclear and hydro power, leading to rapid and cheap production of wind turbines and solar panels (and perhaps alternatives such as tidal energy).

Once that's accomplished, electric cars, with charging stations everywhere there are now gas stations, will quickly follow. And sweeping vegetarianism will reduce the motivation to mow down rain forest to produce cattle ranches.

Or, we can just keep taking partisan pot-shots and blaming "the problems" on "the other side of the aisle," while we dicker over semantics.

The irony to me about much of liberal thinking is that most liberals apparently don't want anybody "on their side" on an issue like climate change who is not a dyed-in-the-wool, card-carrying liberal, drinking ALL the Kool-Aid. Here I want to find agreement and find actual solutions, but I get bagged on as vehemently as if I were a Republican denier. Like I said: zero-sum thinking.

So, how about stop the pot-shots, and let's get serious about this? Or do you prefer "being right" to developing consensus?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jul 29, 2018 - 09:08am PT
given that the solution is to reduce CO2 emission, how would YOU do it, you the individual.

An interesting recent paper:
The climate mitigation gap: education and government recommendations miss the most effective individual actions studies the impact of individual activities and ranks them by their "emission savings"

The highest impact you can have? Decide to have one or fewer children.

The next are nearly two orders of magnitude less effective in emissions savings, ranked in descending order:

live car free
avoid one transatlantic flight
buy green energy
buy more efficient car
switch electric car to car free
plant-based diet

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jul 29, 2018 - 09:18am PT
mb1's political rant is misplaced, you can read this article:

Why we still need nuclear power

published 2 years before the author became the Secretary of Energy, in the Obama administration.

The "libs v. cons" is a red-herring, it serves to create overheated prose and attract attention.

mb1 cannot claim that he is making a contribution to the discussion of implementing a solution by such posts.

as an exercise that even mb1 could probably accomplish: what is the number of nuclear power plants that would be required to fully replace fossil fuel use today?

and how long would it take to build those nuclear power plants?

and what carbon emission would result from that building?

finally, what could YOU do, if YOU so desired, to make building those nuclear power plants possible?
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Jul 29, 2018 - 03:30pm PT
Clearly you are on the side of stupid.

I've come to conclude that intelligent thought is wasted on liberals.

Good luck getting ANY of your punitive policies in place. You are determined to alienate everybody "else" (by your narrow definition). And we have yet another politard thread that has devolved into liberal hand-wringing rants in an echo chamber, where anybody "else" is heaped with epithets.

Sad.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Jul 29, 2018 - 03:34pm PT

And there's still the aviation problem.

Edit: Absolutely true that many of the people who post here could do more. Somewhere along the line it became a rite of passage to travel the world--despite the environmental cost. Ironically, these are often the very same people who soapbox the most.


Sure, it is easy to taunt someone who points out a problem while also being a part of the problem.

I think climate change is an existential threat

I no longer put 20,000 miles a year on a low mileage vehicle, but if I was still healthy enough to climb, I probably would. I fly two or three times a year to visit family and, gasp, I eat beef once or twice a month and chicken about once a day.

So does that mean I shouldn't be able to weigh in on climate change. Would it somehow be better if instead I just said screw the climate? I don't get it. We don't live in a sustainable society. It would be extremely hard to live your life in a sustainable manner and even if one or two die-hard eco-warriors manage, we aren't going to be able to support 8 billion people in a sustainable manner overnight.

Individual actions can add up and help change cultural norms. But I don't see any solution that doesn't involve dramatic changes in laws and regulations. I still have a lot of hope, but I can't say I have much optimism. If we taxed things like aviation to more accurately reflect the externalities of CO2 and other pollution, we would either fly a lot less or the market would come up with solutions. Same with eating meat. Meat from a lab certainly has a way to go, but I would say it looks promising. If we had a $100 tax per ton of CO2 equivalent, we would get there a lot faster. With enough financial incentive the aviation industry could probably be able to switch to bio fuels. It needs to be taxed based not mandate based. Mandates results in things like using corn as an automotive fuel even though there is little or no CO2 benefit when you add it all up. With a CO2 tax based system, no one would be converting corn, at least as it is currently grown, into a fuel for autos.

August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Jul 29, 2018 - 03:43pm PT

But if liberals won't embrace and individually LIVE the change they advocate, I really can't take their proposed punitive measures (that will, of course, conveniently affect "other entities" besides themselves) seriously. So, yeah, become vegetarians, and then I'll start to take your hand-wringing seriously.

So if one were to think that Asian sweat-shops were a bad thing, they shouldn't say anything about it until they are 100% sure that none of their clothing comes from any such shops?

And one shouldn't criticize the size of the national debt unless one voluntarily gives extra money to the government to help solve that problem.


And one shouldn't criticize telecommunication providers unless one goes without a mobile phone/landline?

And why the focus just on vegetarianism?

I won't accept anything you say about climate change if you run an air conditioner or eat in restaurants that use one, or work in an office that uses one, or ride in a vehicle that uses one, or...

A CO2 tax hits everyone not just 'conveniently affect "other entities"'.

Sure, there is the problem with wealth inequality. Another issue that is moving in the wrong direction.

And if we are restricted to suggesting "complete solutions" that are politically feasible in the current environment, we might as just join the climate change deniers.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Jul 29, 2018 - 03:56pm PT
MB1,


Regarding sources of electricity, I am not ideologically opposed to nuclear, but it doesn't appear that it can currently be built in a cost effective manner.

As for hydro, there just aren't many large sites left in this country that haven't already been developed. In CA, Auburn would make sense as a hydro project and that is about it. Well, Yosemite valley would also work. Small scale hydro could be economic in places but I don't think it will ever provide electricity on the scale that is needed.

As for tidal, it hasn't been cost effective. Neither has wave power. I'm happy to see people continue to research it but I don't see it taking off. There are some places with large tides where you might be able to build a dam across a bay/lagoon and make a go of it, but the other environmental costs are high.

Solar and wind, plus increased battery storage certainly looks the most promising. Even without subsidies (or carbon taxes) they are now competitive with fossil fuels in some places. And they would not have made it this far this quick without the government action that you seem pretty hostile/dismissive of.
monolith

climber
state of being
Jul 29, 2018 - 08:11pm PT
ATG is the crazy nut case. He thinks Trump will go 'bigly' on universal income in his second term.

You just can't make that craziness up.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Aug 3, 2018 - 06:49am PT
If it were a country, Texas would be the world’s No. 3 oil producer, behind only Russia and Saudi Arabia

We've got that going for us. 👍
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Aug 3, 2018 - 10:00am PT
You are right DMT it doesn't. That is why I think strong legislative action is needed.

When the surgeon general first said smoking causes cancer it didn't have much immediate impact on smoking rates.

But it helped to change the culture and that lead to reduced smoking.

My mom has always hated the smell of cigarette smoke. But when I was a kid, it would never have crossed her mind to ask her bridge card group not to smoke in her house. A hostess just wouldn't do that.

We need a similar change in culture with regard to climate change.

There have been baby steps but I fear it will mostly be too little too late.

Time will tell.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Aug 4, 2018 - 12:41pm PT
Sooooo ,....... the second industrial revolution was the fault of us boomers?


Well, while you're busy pointing fingers I've gone solar in a big way, and so far this summer I've had the AC on less than 8 hours total.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Aug 4, 2018 - 02:06pm PT
DMT...figures you would support cross-overs...
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Aug 5, 2018 - 01:14pm PT
By 1979 global warming was clearly predicted by numerous scientists,
and the issue was raised at top levels of government and science.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/01/magazine/climate-change-losing-earth.html
Believe it or not, this summary is the short version.
Even by 1979 it was inevitable that the continuing increase in CO2 would lead to a large increase in the greenhouse effect.
Of course the actual warming would take decades to gradually happen. It could not be clearly measured for several decades, allowing plenty of time for lies, deceit, and denial.

The increase in greenhouse warming due to consumption of fossil fuels was first predicted in 1896 by Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish chemist and future Nobel laureate. Consumption increased beyond anything the Swedish chemist could have imagined.

In a 1957 paper written with Hans Suess, Roger Revelle concluded that “human beings are now carrying out a large-scale geophysical experiment of a kind that could not have happened in the past nor be reproduced in the future.” Revelle helped the Weather Bureau establish a continuous measurement of atmospheric carbon dioxide at a site perched near the summit of Mauna Loa on the Big Island of Hawaii, 11,500 feet above the sea — a rare pristine natural laboratory on a planet blanketed by fossil-fuel emissions. A young geochemist named Charles David Keeling charted the data, which came to be known as the Keeling curve. Revelle died in 1991 and Keeling died in 2005, both of old age, living long enough to see their prediction realized, and still ignored and denied by policy makers.

In 1958, on prime-time television, “The Bell Science Hour” — one of the most popular educational film series in American history — aired “The Unchained Goddess,” a film by Frank Capra about meteorological wonders, warning that “man may be unwittingly changing the world’s climate” through the release of carbon dioxide. “A few degrees’ rise in the Earth’s temperature would melt the polar ice caps,” “An inland sea would fill a good portion of the Mississippi Valley. Tourists in glass-bottomed boats would be viewing the drowned towers of Miami through 150 feet of tropical water.”

In the 60s, President Johnson explained that his generation had “altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale” through the burning of fossil fuels, and his administration commissioned a study of the subject by his Science Advisory Committee. Revelle was its chairman, and its 1965 executive report on carbon dioxide warned of the rapid melting of Antarctica, rising seas, increased acidity of fresh waters — changes that would require no less than a coordinated global effort to forestall.

In 1974, the C.I.A. issued a classified report on the carbon-dioxide problem. It concluded that climate change had begun around 1960 and had “already caused major economic problems throughout the world.” The future economic and political impacts would be “almost beyond comprehension.”
Yet emissions continued to rise, and at this rate, MacDonald warned in 1979, they could see a snowless New England, the swamping of major coastal cities, as much as a 40 percent decline in national wheat production, the forced migration of about one-quarter of the world’s population. Not within centuries — within their own lifetimes.

In 1978 directors of the Friends of the Earth noticed EPA-600/7-78-019, a coal report that noted that the continued use of fossil fuels might, within two or three decades, bring about “significant and damaging” changes to the global atmosphere.

They publicized the issue, which had been studied since the 60s by a prominent geophysicist named Gordon MacDonald. In 1977-78 he was conducting a study on climate change with the Jasons, the mysterious coterie of elite scientists that helped inform government. 1978, the Jasons met to determine what would happen once the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere doubled from pre-Industrial Revolution levels. It was an arbitrary milestone, the doubling, but a useful one, as its inevitability was not in question; the threshold would most likely be breached by 2035. The Jasons’ report to the Department of Energy, “The Long-Term Impact of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide on Climate,” was written in an understated tone that only enhanced its nightmarish findings: Global temperatures would increase by an average of two to three degrees Celsius; Dust Bowl conditions would “threaten large areas of North America, Asia and Africa”; access to drinking water and agricultural production would fall, triggering mass migration on an unprecedented scale. “Perhaps the most ominous feature,” however, was the effect of a changing climate on the poles. Even a minimal warming “could lead to rapid melting” of the West Antarctic ice sheet. The ice sheet contained enough water to raise the level of the oceans 16 feet.
The Jasons sent the report to dozens of scientists in the United States and abroad; to industry groups like the National Coal Association and the Electric Power Research Institute; and within the government, to the National Academy of Sciences, the Commerce Department, the E.P.A., NASA, the Pentagon, the N.S.A., every branch of the military, the National Security Council and the White House.

Beginning in the spring of 1979, Pomerance arranged informal briefings with the E.P.A., the National Security Council, The New York Times, the Council on Environmental Quality and the Energy Department, which, Pomerance learned, had established an Office of Carbon Dioxide Effects two years earlier at MacDonald’s urging. The men settled into a routine, with MacDonald explaining the science and Pomerance adding the exclamation points. They were surprised to learn how few senior officials were familiar with the Jasons’ findings, let alone understood the ramifications of global warming. At last, having worked their way up the federal hierarchy, the two went to see the president’s top scientist, Frank Press.

...weeks later, MacDonald called to tell him that Press had taken up the issue. On May 22, Press wrote a letter to the president of the National Academy of Sciences requesting a full assessment of the carbon-dioxide issue. Jule Charney, the father of modern meteorology, would gather the nation’s top oceanographers, atmospheric scientists and climate modelers to judge whether MacDonald’s alarm was justified — whether the world was, in fact, headed to cataclysm.

… Among Charney’s group was Akio Arakawa, a pioneer of computer modeling. On the final night at Woods Hole, Arakawa stayed up in his motel room with printouts from the models by Hansen and Manabe blanketing his double bed. The discrepancy between the models, Arakawa concluded, came down to ice and snow. The whiteness of the world’s snowfields reflected light; if snow melted in a warmer climate, less radiation would escape the atmosphere, leading to even greater warming. Shortly before dawn, Arakawa concluded that Manabe had given too little weight to the influence of melting sea ice, while Hansen had overemphasized it. The best estimate lay in between. Which meant that the Jasons’ calculation was too optimistic. When carbon dioxide doubled in 2035 or thereabouts, global temperatures would increase between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees Celsius, with the most likely outcome a warming of three degrees.

The publication of Jule Charney’s report, “Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment,” several months later was not accompanied by a banquet, a parade or even a news conference. Yet within the highest levels of the federal government, the scientific community and the oil-and-gas industry — within the commonwealth of people who had begun to concern themselves with the future habitability of the planet — the Charney report would come to have the authority of settled fact. It was the summation of all the predictions that had come before, and it would withstand the scrutiny of the decades that followed it. Charney’s group had considered everything known about ocean, sun, sea, air and fossil fuels and had distilled it to a single number: three. When the doubling threshold was broached, as appeared inevitable, the world would warm three degrees Celsius. Even then, unless net carbon emissions stopped, three degrees would only be the beginning.

Upon reading the report, Exxon decided to act. Exxon didn’t concern itself primarily with how much the world would warm. It wanted to know how much of the warming Exxon could be blamed for.
A senior researcher named Henry Shaw had argued that the company needed a deeper understanding of the issue in order to influence future legislation that might restrict carbon-dioxide emissions. “It behooves us to start a very aggressive defensive program,” Shaw wrote in a memo to a manager, “because there is a good probability that legislation affecting our business will be passed.”

Shaw turned to Wallace Broecker, a Columbia University oceanographer who was the second author of Roger Revelle’s 1965 carbon-dioxide report for Lyndon Johnson. In 1977, in a presentation at the American Geophysical Union, Broecker predicted that fossil fuels would have to be restricted, whether by taxation or fiat. More recently, he had testified before Congress, calling carbon dioxide “the No.1 long-term environmental problem.” If presidents and senators trusted Broecker to tell them the bad news, he was good enough for Exxon.
The company had been studying the carbon-dioxide problem for decades, since before it changed its name to Exxon. In 1957, scientists from Humble Oil published a study tracking “the enormous quantity of carbon dioxide” contributed to the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution “from the combustion of fossil fuels.” Even then, the observation that burning fossil fuels had increased the concentration of carbon in the atmosphere was well understood and accepted by Humble’s scientists.

The American Petroleum Institute, the industry’s largest trade association, asked the same question in 1958 through its air-pollution study group and replicated the findings made by Humble Oil. So did another A.P.I. study conducted by the Stanford Research Institute a decade later, in 1968, which concluded that the burning of fossil fuels would bring “significant temperature changes” by the year 2000 and ultimately “serious worldwide environmental changes,” including the melting of the Antarctic ice cap and rising seas. It was “ironic,” the study’s authors noted, that politicians, regulators and environmentalists fixated on local incidents of air pollution that were immediately observable, while the climate crisis, whose damage would be of far greater severity and scale, went entirely unheeded.


Shaw was running out of time. In 1978, an Exxon colleague circulated an internal memo warning that humankind had only five to 10 years before policy action would be necessary. But Congress seemed ready to act a lot sooner than that. On April 3, 1980, Senator Paul Tsongas, a Massachusetts Democrat, held the first congressional hearing on carbon-dioxide buildup in the atmosphere. Gordon MacDonald testified that the United States should “take the initiative” and develop, through the United Nations, a way to coordinate every nation’s energy policies to address the problem. That June, Jimmy Carter signed the Energy Security Act of 1980, which directed the National Academy of Sciences to start a multiyear, comprehensive study, to be called “Changing Climate,” that would analyze social and economic effects of climate change. More urgent, the National Commission on Air Quality, at the request of Congress, invited two dozen experts, including Henry Shaw himself, to a meeting in Florida to propose climate policy.
It seemed that some kind of legislation to restrict carbon combustion was inevitable. The Charney report had confirmed the diagnosis of the problem — a problem that Exxon helped create. Now Exxon would help shape the solution.

At that time the USA was responsible for a majority of carbon emissions.
But they could not agree on what policy changes to recommend.
4 days later, Reagan was elected and fossil fuel lobbyists took over the country.
For the next 9 years the government did not deny climate change; it just put off the need for any solution. There was no short term political upside to taking action.
Some pledges were made, only to be later broken. The top denier in government in the late 80s was John Sununu, Bush Sr.'s chief of staff. By the mid 90's, thanks to massive disinformation efforts by fossil fuel lobbyists, most republicans actively denied climate change.

The article goes on. Climate science continued to advance for the next 40 years, basically confirming the overall conclusions of the 1979 Charney report.
But the leaders of USA government hid their heads in the sand for 40 years.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Aug 5, 2018 - 01:48pm PT
RE salesmanship failure.


As the article I quote above makes clear,
in the 80s we were at least on a supposed stated path to doing something to control GHG emissions. The government seemed to be planning actual new policy.

The public was not aware that we even needed a salesmanship campaign to compete with the nonsense spewed by the fossil fuel disinformation.


By the mid 90s, the disinformation campaign had won. It was too late to convince the lemmings, who now religiously associate profligate carbon consumption as the most treasured type of American pie.

Contractor

Boulder climber
CA
Aug 5, 2018 - 07:33pm PT
The warmest surface temperature ever recorded in California. https://www.npr.org/2018/08/03/635312852/san-diego-researchers-measure-the-highest-ocean-surface-temperature-in-a-century

I noticed a few weeks ago, the wax on my surfboards felt like grease.
Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Aug 11, 2018 - 01:57pm PT
Great cartoon, Malmute. This one speaks to every poster here--i.e. climbers:


To follow the Jesus-Bucky, we've got to dump the cars and the international, airline-based climbing trips, among other thigs. Who here is willing to do that? Conrad Anchor recently talked about climbers speaking up about climate change. Fair enough, but he's really advocating for people NOT doing what he has done--and continues to do. He's got a carbon footprint this size of Australia! It's one thing to speak up about climate change--producing more CO2, of course, in the process--but if you're going to walk-the-walk, well, that means taking personal responsibility, the only actions we can definitely count on. Conrad continues to take international flights, and he's gotta have a couple of 4X4's back in Montana, overall a really high carbon lifestyle.

So here are the options that I guess he's (you and others?) arguing for: 1) Voluntarily drop the carbon-heavy activities. Ride bikes! (which I'm in favor of, btw). 2) Get politicians supported by enough people to enact policies that will FORCE us to do without these carbon-heavy activities, i.e. the threat of fines/imprisonment/punishing taxes to keep us all carbon-light. The wealthy and powerful--including all these smug politicians, btw--will be able to continue in style. The rest of pleebs? Good luck, suckers!

I have no idea what the end game is here, but I think we should at least be honest about what we're arguing for. Except for a few True Believers, I don't see anyone willing to do what it takes to truly cut back on our carbon addiction. Of course, at SOME point, we'll have no choice because these fossil fuels will be too scarce. Humans are mostly reactionary. Until that time, #VANLIFE

http://www.supertopo.com/climbers-forum/3095319/Van-life

And such experiences are "why...more people [aren't] concerned about [climate change]."

BAd
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 12, 2018 - 09:59am PT
I think that we do truly have to think about the points that BAd makes.

It is not a blame thing, the US was the major source of CO₂ emissions in the 20th century, the citizens of the US, though unwitting until the late part of 20th century, benefitted from "cheap" fossil fuel energy.

The choices we make as individuals matters. And knowing that we are making a choice is the first step. Climbers make choices, I make choices, and we can do this while waiting for the political response to unfold.




As a note, to burn all the fossil fuels to the point of scarcity will render the climate uninhabitable in terms of the current economy. However, the economic "value" of the "reserves" is a major political force, and not just because of human foibles, but as a general rule of life, to exploit available resources.

Welcome to the petri dish.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Aug 12, 2018 - 11:02am PT
To follow the Jesus-Bucky, we've got to dump the cars and the international, airline-based climbing trips, among other thigs. Who here is willing to do that?

Again, if some individuals make personal sacrifices for the common good, great. If their example helps create a cultural change, that can certainly have an effect, but I really don't see a few individuals cutting out a few activities having all that much effect.

Most people generally spend all the money they make in their life (sure, some get or give bigger inheritances, but in the long run, it holds true).

So you take a couple fewer long airplane trips. Do you make up for that by living in a bigger house? Eating out more? Replacing your smart phone more often? Replacing your $300 shell more often?

And as far as climate change guilting, having kids dwarfs any other choice an individual makes.

We don't need to mandate or guilt against cars and planes as much as we need to agitate for CO2 taxes.

I would willingly pay for my share of CO2 taxes if everyone else is also.

I think the market could respond much more quickly and efficiently than most people give credit for, if society could make the incentives good enough.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 12, 2018 - 11:34am PT
"political will" is, importantly, sourced by "the people"

your individual commitment is important, while I also would like to see a carbon tax, the most efficient way to price fossil fuel costs for all products and services, I think I could make better choices on my fossil fuel use than I have in the past.

there are people who make the choice to have fewer (or no) children, intentionally.

there are people who eat meat free, or meat less, or chose what animal product they eat, intentionally,

there are people who take fewer flights, intentionally.

there are people who buy energy efficient cars, buy electric cars, or decide to go carless, intentionally.

many people who make these choices post to STForum, but don't trumpet their choices, they are individual choices first and foremost.

thanks to all of you. I try to live up to your examples.
Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Aug 12, 2018 - 01:39pm PT
I listened to an economics podcast that discussed taxing carbon but then, essentially, giving the money back in terms of tax breaks. I'm really not sure how/why this would work. I mean, after a while, wouldn't we figure out that while something costs more in the moment, I'm getting it back later in the year, so eff it, I'm buying the biggest SUV I can? I sometimes fantasize about a car-free life, especially if I lived in some cool town like Eugene, OR, but my climbing would pretty much stop. These days, living in Bishop, I drive a fair amount to the local crags. We didn't have kids, but I can say that environmental concerns were so small a part of our deliberations as to be insignificant.

Of course, if the USA goes full-on, hardcore carbon tax, transportation mandates, etc., how the hell do we get the rest of the globe to follow, especially after we've had so much growth and prosperity because of our wild carbon party? It's kind of like Conrad Anker on a global scale: We had a great time, living the high life, but now the rest of you tighten your belts. I totally get why it's a good idea, but as a practical matter, damn, the hurdles are HUGE.

BAd
Lituya

Mountain climber
Aug 12, 2018 - 01:51pm PT
It was a Republican president who, in 2001, declined to implement the Kyoto Protocol, a binding global treaty to reduce carbon pollution.

Your history is a bit fuzzy, Mal. The U.S. Senate never ratified the treaty--a very flawed and political instrument that would have done little, if anything, to mitigate CO2 buildup. In fact, Canada withdrew in 2012 after failing to meet their targets.

Lituya

Mountain climber
Aug 12, 2018 - 01:56pm PT
I have no idea what the end game is here, but I think we should at least be honest about what we're arguing for. Except for a few True Believers, I don't see anyone willing to do what it takes to truly cut back on our carbon addiction

Great post! There is no escaping the hypocrisy. Heck, even riding a bicycle is a carbon-intense activity. The calories it takes to peddle are bathed in oil from fertilizer to farm to harvest to market.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Aug 12, 2018 - 02:05pm PT
RE:
taxing carbon but then, essentially, giving the money back in terms of tax breaks. I'm really not sure how/why this would work. I mean, after a while, wouldn't we figure out that while something costs more in the moment, I'm getting it back later in the year, so eff it, I'm buying the biggest SUV I can?


The money you pay in RNCF for excessive SUV fuel will NOT be returned to the same people. RNCF = Revenue Neutral Carbon Fee. One easy way to redistribute it would be to reduce income tax brackets on the working & middle class.

Say an average amount of RNCF is $1000 per year, which includes fuel for your car, fossil fuels for electricity and heat, and adds some cost to many products.

If you are a high carbon user, your carbon fees will likely be much more than the average. Yet at the end of the year your income tax will not decrease nearly enough to offset your carbon fee.

Now take a person that is a very low carbon user, so hardly pays any RNCF. They will still receive the $1000 in reduced income taxes (on average), because they would no longer be forced to pay the external costs of high carbon users.

Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Aug 12, 2018 - 02:20pm PT
"I would willingly pay for my share of CO2 taxes if everyone else is also."

I think that is true for most people at this point. However many want someone else to go first. They are buying into the Koch/Heartland/ALEC/Exxon/Coal/Cato/Fox disinformation campaign.
They don't realize that someone else already did go first. California is way ahead of most of the country. Much of Europe is way ahead of California. Most other countries realize that no one climate treaty will be final. It is a process. Every few years the world would try to decrease GHGs more and more, while being as fair as possible. This should have started 30-40 years ago. With the USA being one of worst carbon users, we should be taking the lead, and then insisting that others follow.


Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Aug 12, 2018 - 08:15pm PT
Thanks, Splater. That makes sense. Of course, the wealthy will still be able to do whatever they want, as always.

BAd
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Aug 12, 2018 - 11:36pm PT
Most people will be incentivized by an RNCF,
but if needed, other policies are always possible.
Capitalism does usually result in the rich being able to afford more.

Tiered pricing affects heavy users the most - for example tiered utility rates are like a progressive tax.

Some types of mandates & regulation can work, but are often more bureaucratic:

EPA CAFE rules.

New homes requiring solar panels.

Rules requiring increasing percentage renewable energy for utilities.

Future plans to stop selling all fossil fuel vehicles.

Higher yearly registration fees for gas guzzlers.

Stopping any tax deductions for anything except the most efficient choices.

Subsidies such as those for electric cars.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Aug 13, 2018 - 09:45am PT
Of course, if the rest of the globe goes full-on, hardcore carbon tax, transportation mandates, etc., how the hell do we get the USA to follow?

I still have hope, but I don't have much optimism. Not that I will live to see it, but I think things will get really, really bad and Republicans will still refuse to do much that is very useful.

20 years ago, one might have thought that a summer like 2018, with the fires, the droughts, and record setting heat waves all over the world would be enough to shock the republican crowd into action.

Nopity, nopity, nope. Pretty much business as usual.

We could have $200 billion of flooding in New Orleans, Miami, and the Atlantic states and R's would still primary any Republican that suggested a 50 cent gasoline tax.

As I started my post, I hope I am being too cynical.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Aug 13, 2018 - 09:58am PT
I have no idea what the end game is here, but I think we should at least be honest about what we're arguing for. Except for a few True Believers, I don't see anyone willing to do what it takes to truly cut back on our carbon addiction

I don't think it is possible for a person to live sustainably in an unsustainable society. It is certainly not possible for 7 billion people to suddenly start living sustainbly.

This is why I think it is far more important to change society than for a few individuals to try and make a few small difference.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Aug 13, 2018 - 10:13am PT
I don't think it is possible for a person to live sustainably in an unsustainable society. It is certainly not possible for 7 billion people to suddenly start living sustainbly.

This is why I think it is far more important to change society than for a few individuals to try and make a few small difference.

Change society? In what way?

A bit outdated--1968--and some of it flat out wrong. But Hardin's The Tragedy of the Commons remains a required read.

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/162/3859/1243.full

EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Aug 15, 2018 - 06:23am PT
Malemute

Aug 14, 2018 - 08:07pm PT
Heat now kills more Americans than floods, hurricanes or other natural disasters – but cities are facing it almost entirely alone

“It’s only a matter of time until the west is completely insufficiently prepared for climate change,” says Brian Petersen, a climate change and planning academic at Northern Arizona University. “If we really wanted to be prepared we would be doing a lot of different things that we’re not doing.

Cold weather is 20 times as deadly as hot weather, and it's not the extreme low or high temperatures that cause the most deaths, according to a study published Wednesday.

The study found the majority of deaths occurred on moderately hot and moderately cold days instead of during extreme temperatures.

"Although the risk of mortality due to extremely cold or hot days is actually higher, they are less frequent," said lead author Antonio Gasparrini of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

The study — published in the British journal The Lancet — analyzed data on more than 74 million deaths in 13 countries between 1985 and 2012. Of those, 5.4 million deaths were related to cold, while 311,000 were related to heat.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/05/20/cold-weather-deaths/27657269/
Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Aug 15, 2018 - 07:00am PT
Interesting, Edward! Not an argument in favor of more emissions, but it makes sense.

BAd
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Aug 15, 2018 - 12:27pm PT
"Change society? In what way?"

well just for a starter making consumers pay the full cost of the products their lining up for would be good...

really goes against the 'free market' thought but we can dream!

We don't have a free market now. The price of eating out includes having to pay the help minimum wage. The cost of running your AC, if you get electricity from a coal plant, includes the cost of anti-pollution controls (for acid rain, particulates, etc.) on the plant. A package of cigarettes contains taxes both to discourage smoking and help pay for negative effects.

A CO2 tax is politically toxic, but conceptually it fits easily within what we already do.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Aug 15, 2018 - 12:33pm PT
I think the number of heat deaths are going to rapidly increase over the next hundred years. Unless we eliminate poverty (not impossible, but seems unlikely) there are going to be a lot of poor people in parts of Africa and Asia that will face death from heat.

At a high enough heat index, even a healthy adult sitting in the shade will overheat and die. The world hasn't reached that point, but in coming decades there are places that will. Obviously those not in good health will kick off at lower temps.

For some places, having access to AC will be a matter of life and death during hot spells.

If they haven't been replaced with robots, agricultural and other outdoor workers are really go to suffer also.
Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Aug 15, 2018 - 01:23pm PT
Reading The Sixth Extinction right now--grimly sobering, and a great read. I REALLY want a time machine to jump forward 500, 1,000, 10,0000 years to get a sense for what happens. For all the forecasts and modeling, we really don't know. The Earth has been through this before. In fact, we only exist because of some mass extinction in the past. Ravens, coyotes, and c*#k roaches will inherit the earth.

BAd
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Aug 15, 2018 - 03:11pm PT
9 inches of rain in 3 hours over here yesterday.

Normal.
StahlBro

Trad climber
San Diego, CA
Aug 15, 2018 - 03:50pm PT
No such thing. Liberal, Obama, Hillary, Chinese, Scientific conspiracy. Everything is fine. Keep consuming and everything will work itself out.

Besides, Mars is like really cool, and stuff.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Aug 15, 2018 - 04:14pm PT
I was once an optimist about this. My current assessment; Earth abides and flourishes following the human extinction event. If there ends up being another "intelligent species" that can decipher the geological record, the human extinction event will coincide with the end of the Anthropocene (the age of humans); a span of time that is so small that it can be treated as a point in time (a very thin layer that will likely only be preserved here and there, geologically) for all practical purposes to the future intelligence. It will be one of the biggest extinction events in Earth's history (it already is, btw) -- right up there with End-of-Permian and End-of-Cretaceous, aka, End of Paleozoic and End of Mesozoic. It will essentially be an End of Cenozoic event (again, it already is).
WBraun

climber
Aug 15, 2018 - 04:52pm PT
human extinction


Can't be done, it's never ever been done. nor will it ever be done.

The human race does not have that absolute power.

The gross materialists are always in poor fund of knowledge ......
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Aug 16, 2018 - 06:30am PT
Severe plumed storms push heat trapping water vapor high into stratosphere.


https://www.nasa.gov/feature/langley/severe-storms-show-off-their-plume-age

-------------------------------------------------------------------------


Antarctic seals recruited to measure effects of climate change

The study, published on 14 May in Geophysical Research Letters1, reveals that a deep-water current known as the Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) is bigger, warmer and saltier in the winter months than in summer.

The current is a warm, salty doughnut of water that circles Antarctica at depths of 500-1,000 metres. In the Amundsen Sea, this warm band of water is thought to be accelerating the melt of the West Antarctic ice sheet, which if lost entirely could raise sea levels by 3.2 metres.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05204-y
Gunks Ray

Trad climber
Gunks
Aug 16, 2018 - 07:39am PT
If you found yourself thinking it was scorching hot in recent weeks, well, you were right.

For the three-month period of May to July, the entire contiguous United States (CONUS) “ranked hottest on record,” as the National Weather Service in Los Angeles, California tweeted out Wednesday, adding that “records go back to 1895.”

NOAA did point out that in California in particular, “July was off the charts: The state saw its hottest July and hottest month on record with an average temperature of 79.7 degrees F.”

No wonder the state has been ravaged by deadly, record-smashing wildfires this summer.

https://thinkprogress.org/hottest-may-june-july-in-us-history-ea200870459d/
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Aug 16, 2018 - 08:04am PT
[Click to View YouTube Video]
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Aug 16, 2018 - 09:46am PT
Hubris , Werner, hubris!
Lennox

climber
in the land of the blind
Aug 17, 2018 - 03:26pm PT

https://www.fs.fed.us/sites/default/files/toward-shared-stewardship.pdf

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/08/the-trump-administration-ryan-zinke-fire-management-climate-change/
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Aug 17, 2018 - 03:32pm PT
Roll call! Who on this thread still denies human-caused climate change?
climbera5

Trad climber
Sacramento
Aug 17, 2018 - 04:08pm PT
I don't deny human contribution to global warming, the science is clear; but we are not the sole cause. The CO2 introduced into our environment takes 40 years to dissipate. Much of that is absorbed by the oceans and vegetation, but that reaches a saturation point. Even if we stopped all hydrocarbon emissions today the next few generations are screwed. Geologically speaking, the greatest contributor is the fluctuation of solar activity, but we've been able to accelerate the heating process. A good business opportunity is creating a mechanism for CO2 absorption and on a grander scale; solar reflection or filtration.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Aug 17, 2018 - 04:38pm PT
Solar changes explain NONE of the overall recent global warming.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0V2HYZbFLn8

WE are indeed the SOLE cause of the overall global warming in the last 45 years.

Furthermore, Future generations will be FAR MORE SCREWED if we don't change our GHG emissions.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Aug 17, 2018 - 09:13pm PT
^^^^^^^^^

I fought the Law

Gravity won.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Aug 21, 2018 - 07:26am PT
Heat => Fire

Brilliant
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Aug 21, 2018 - 11:05am PT

This is the “new normal” that fire officials say should actually be known as just “normal.”

This is the “new normal” that should actually be known as “the current normal,” because it won't be that normal for very long before it gets even worse.

Fixed what they should have actually said.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Aug 22, 2018 - 09:54am PT
Three best-selling passenger vehicles in America:



Gunks Ray

Trad climber
Gunks
Aug 22, 2018 - 10:53am PT
A good article about how the permafrost is melting much faster than expected.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/08/news-arctic-permafrost-may-thaw-faster-than-expected/
Lituya

Mountain climber
Aug 22, 2018 - 11:12am PT
The "fossil fuel industry" is us. There is nobody else to blame.
Cragar

climber
MSLA - MT
Aug 22, 2018 - 11:21am PT
The "fossil fuel industry" is us. There is nobody else to blame.

Cognitive dissonance.
Is there another recreational/fun activity that requires more driving than climbing?
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Aug 22, 2018 - 03:02pm PT
A law suit against the FF industry recently got thrown out of court because the judge could not find the industry at fault for offering a product, it was the consumers who used the product who were at fault. [I readily admit this is a total paraphrase of the case, and I might be miles off in my a$$essment.]

One interesting fact about this case is that the court thoroughly studied the Climate Change science and found that it was solid and sound science. They concluded that climate change is real and it's caused by we humans (this fact has seen little publicity, I wonder why).

After some deep thought, I came to a different conclusion about this case. The fact is that when we buy gasoline, we aren't paying the full price that the product should cost at the pump. While the oil and gas industry receives "subsidies" in the form of tax credits for exploration, that cost is *not* born by the gas-pump price. Neither is the environmental cost of burning the fuel reflected in the pump price. And how about the tax-payer's cost of super-fund site cleanups.

If you paid the real cost for gas at the pump, then those trucks that EdwardT gracefully showed us above would not be the best sellers, and we'd all fvuckin' driving a fvck of a lot less and carpooling more. So what I'm saying is that the price structure is set up to enable the FF industry to mass murder the planet.
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Aug 22, 2018 - 03:41pm PT
Climate change is real yet I drive an F150 on road trips. Great road machine.
I take the bus to work and do minimal driving around town.
Does this make me a hypocrite?
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Aug 22, 2018 - 04:01pm PT
No,but someone insinuating you buy and support dinosaur use and are part of the problem are totally generalizing.
I have a 250 gallon tank of BD 85 sitting in my yard,A VW Vanagon and a Golf both with TDI motors. I pay 15 cents a gallon more than the national average,delivered.

Completely power my home with solar,working on a diesel generator for backup.

My cooktop runs on BD.

I will heat with Geo Thermal one day, till then,locally grown Ash ,as they are dying and foresters cannot bring Ash more than 15 miles because of the parasite.

Not saying everyone here can get off Dino’s,but there are ways ,even for a lowly carpenter.

So ,really,who is part of the problem,really.Or ,the ff industry is you.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Aug 22, 2018 - 09:09pm PT
If you paid the real cost for gas at the pump, then those trucks that EdwardT gracefully showed us above would not be the best sellers, and we'd all fvuckin' driving a fvck of a lot less and carpooling more. So what I'm saying is that the price structure is set up to enable the FF industry to mass murder the planet.

Those are known as external or externalized costs. I heard somewhere that the pollution caused by producing our auto fuels is so great that it is like we have already driven 100,000 miles before we even start driving a new car. I'm not sure if that figure is correct, but it has to be pretty high. Just think of the tanker trucks getting fuel to final destinations as one small part of the process. Think of all the oilfield off-gasing, think of.....the figure would probably include the production of the car.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_externalizing

Lituya

Mountain climber
Aug 22, 2018 - 10:46pm PT
No,but someone insinuating you buy and support dinosaur use and are part of the problem are totally generalizing.
I have a 250 gallon tank of BD 85 sitting in my yard,A VW Vanagon and a Golf both with TDI motors. I pay 15 cents a gallon more than the national average,delivered.

If we completely turned off the "old carbon" spigot, and steered our agriculture toward producing bio-fuels as a replacement, any idea how much arable land would be left to produce, say, food? (I honestly don't know, but I suspect the answer is not much.) And, of course, ask how much oil goes into producing bio-fuels now e.g. planting, fertilizer, harvest, delivery, etc. Not trying to be a downer--and niche use is commendable--but I don't see this as a wide-scale solution.
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Aug 23, 2018 - 03:55am PT
The Larsen C Ice Shelf Collapse Is Just the Beginning—Antarctica Is Melting

The massive iceberg that broke off the Larsen C Ice Shelf may be a harbinger of a continent-wide collapse that would swamp coastal cities around the world.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2017/07/antarctica-sea-level-rise-climate-change/
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Aug 23, 2018 - 04:16am PT
Buffalo Biodiesel is produced in a factory run by renewables,it’s fleet of delivery /collection vehicles use the product and B 85 uses less than 15% agricultural nutrients.
Collection of second use oils and waste are the main ingredient.
Over here it is hardly “ niche”.
Even spent barley from breweries is used.

Biodiesel is not Bio Fuel.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Aug 23, 2018 - 10:59am PT

If we completely turned off the "old carbon" spigot, and steered our agriculture toward producing bio-fuels as a replacement, any idea how much arable land would be left to produce, say, food? (I honestly don't know, but I suspect the answer is not much.) And, of course, ask how much oil goes into producing bio-fuels now e.g. planting, fertilizer, harvest, delivery, etc. Not trying to be a downer--and niche use is commendable--but I don't see this as a wide-scale solution.

This is a real issue. My understanding: when you crunch all the numbers, growing corn to make ethanol to put in a fuel tank doesn't save any CO2.

This is a classic example of why a CO2 tax is better than a mandate. The CO2 tax will incorporate the planting, fertilizer, etc.

If bio-fuels were to be done on a scale that made a difference to climate change, I don't think farmland would be viable.

You would need something like growing algae in tubes in the ocean or something.

Edit to add:

It probably isn't ever going to be a viable climate change option to fuel cars and trucks with bio-fuels. Electric or something like hydrogen fuel cells (that only need electricity to create) would probably make more sense.

But electric airplanes for large commercial jet liners are a dubious proposition because of the weight of the batteries. I could see bio-fuels just for air travel. That would be on a dramatically smaller scale.
Cragar

climber
MSLA - MT
Aug 23, 2018 - 12:34pm PT
growing algae in tubes

Or lakes in Oregon!!

I eat the $h!t out of it on long days on foot, bike or moto. I feel good from the B vitamins and other other goodies in it. I probably pop 15-20 during an 8 hour outing along with nuts, figs, crystallized ginger and whatever expensive dark chocolate bar is on sale. I can't get near any kind of 'power bar' and haven't eaten that processed crap in over 10 years due to the prior 25 I consumed thousands of them. My favorite way to eat a power bar was the Croft method, put a couple lines of coffee beans down the center and fold'r up. Anyway, I am huge fan of blue/green algae great food and it practically weighs nothing. At first it is kinda hard to swallow the pills but that goes away with all the positive effects, at least that is how it was for me.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Aug 23, 2018 - 01:16pm PT
Humans need to understand the importance of this issue.

People getting all bent out of shape over abortion or gun control or illegal immigrants are just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Aug 23, 2018 - 03:08pm PT
I agree with you Toker.

I am going to say this again ,Bio Diesel is not ethanol or Bio Fuel.

BD is making huge inroads in the over the road trucking industry and is available in every state in the lower 48.

It is a low carbon redundant fuel,as long as we fry foods it will be available,not truly renewable,but uses our resources fully and has way less footprint than Dino’s.

Read into it.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Aug 27, 2018 - 03:15pm PT
From August 23 to Sept. 13, the University of Rhode Island’s Inner Space Center (ISC), with major funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation and additional support from the Heising-Simons Foundation, will conduct the innovative Northwest Passage Project research expedition with a team of natural and social scientists, students, and a professional film crew. This ground-breaking opportunity is also supported by One Ocean Expeditions as a key marine partner, having operated in Arctic waters for over 20 years.

Research to aid understanding of / document climate change effects

Aboard the Akademik Ioffe, the team will collect water, ice, and air samples to advance understanding of and document the effect climate change is having on the environment and biodiversity in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

The expedition team will engage a wide public audience through an extensive and unprecedented Internet presence from the area, including Facebook Live broadcasts from sea. Special interactive broadcasts will be beamed via the Inner Space Center (ISC), the U.S. facility that supports ocean exploration and education, to three prestigious science museums across the country – the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, Washington DC, the Exploratorium, San Francisco CA, and the Alaska SeaLife Center, Seward AK.

Guess what happened on day two of this three week journey?
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Aug 27, 2018 - 03:20pm PT
Um, EdwardT was officially declared an idiot? Total out-of-left-field guess.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Aug 27, 2018 - 03:26pm PT
Awesome burn!

Did you come up with that all by yourself?
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Aug 27, 2018 - 04:50pm PT
The thickest of the Arctic sea ice breaking free of northern Greenland

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2018/08/circumnavigating-greenland.html#more
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Aug 27, 2018 - 05:03pm PT
The ship ran aground:

https://northwestpassageproject.org/

What's ur point Eddie?
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Aug 27, 2018 - 06:21pm PT
It is right back to the thread I know and loathe,lol.




It’s a hoax.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Aug 28, 2018 - 05:30pm PT
Anybody who thinks that climate change is a hoax at this point in time is, at best, uninformed but mostly dangerous to the rest of us. Even if you believe that we can engineer our way out of this, it does nobody any good to deny the science. That's just dumb!
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Aug 28, 2018 - 05:42pm PT


eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Aug 28, 2018 - 07:00pm PT
EdwardT is a good example.
Fossil climber

Trad climber
Atlin, B. C.
Aug 28, 2018 - 07:55pm PT
Doesn't matter. Climate change isn't the only issue. Read "Limits to Growth - the Thirty Year Update".
And things have deteriorated more rapidly since its publication.

Selfishly glad I'm 87, but feel really bad for my kids and everybody much younger.

Carpe diem.

Call me Eeyor. Sigh.
Jay S

Mountain climber
Silver Gate, Mt
Aug 28, 2018 - 08:17pm PT
The break up of a glacier.

The first time I visited Castle Rock Glacier was in 1996. The glacier was impressively big. There was a new lake that was not on the maps because it had not exist.

This photo is from 1996.

The second time I visited the glacier was around 2010 it was much smaller but still impressive. I don't have easy access to any photos from that trip.

The third time I made trip was in 2015. It had shrunk dramatically. The new lake was full of icebergs and a lot bigger. The glacier was down to almost nothing. There was bedrock above the glacier.


What I found shocking was how much ice had melted from 2010 to 2015 verses how much ice melted the first fifteen years.

The Beartooth Glaciers are going away very rapidly and we share some responsibility for it.




Jay S

Mountain climber
Silver Gate, Mt
Aug 30, 2018 - 09:18am PT
Palisade Glacier Retreat

[Click to View YouTube Video]

Lituya

Mountain climber
Aug 30, 2018 - 09:26pm PT
I've posted this before. Here in my beloved Olympic Mountains, the low altitude warming is particularly evident.
Anderson Glacier was the first glacier I ever set foot upon--in 1972. In fact, as of 2013 when I last visited, now completely gone.
Heartbreaking.
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Sep 4, 2018 - 07:43am PT

Climate change is melting the French Alps, say mountaineers

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/24/climate-change-is-melting-the-french-alps-say-mountaineers
Degaine

climber
Sep 4, 2018 - 11:20pm PT
Not sure if this has been posted already. Well worth the read:

"Losing Earth: The Decade We Almost Stopped Climate Change"
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/01/magazine/climate-change-losing-earth.html
Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Sep 11, 2018 - 02:01pm PT
Impressive shots, Lituya. Melting glaciers don't lie. Anyone see the pics of Will Gadd climbing the last ice remnants on Kilimanjaro? Wild stuff:


BAd
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Sep 11, 2018 - 05:20pm PT
Too bad Musk has gone the way of Ricky Williams.:) Just kidding, it may very well bear fruit. I've been known to come up with an idea or two while in an alternate state (to be honest, all bad ones through now). I see new "ideas" working on two fronts;

1. The obvious engineering front where we are David and Mother Nature is Goliath. This is where I am hoping for people like Musk as "Hail Mary's".
2. The propaganda front -- good propaganda, that appeals to humans' best interests to collectively care for our environment and reduce the carbon footprint.
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Sep 12, 2018 - 09:42am PT
Blue Ocean Event

As long as the Arctic Ocean has sea ice, most sunlight gets reflected back into space and the 'Center-of-Coldness' remains near the North Pole, says Paul. With the decline of the sea ice, however, the 'Center-of-Coldness' will shift to the middle of Greenland. Accordingly, we can expect the jet streams to shift their center of rotation 17° southward, i.e. away from the North Pole towards Greenland, with profound consequences for our global weather patterns and climate system, for plants and animals, and for human civilization, e.g. our ability to grow food

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Sep 13, 2018 - 07:44am PT
For the first time since 1973, the United States is the world's largest producer of crude oil, according to preliminary estimates published on Wednesday by the Energy Department.

https://money.cnn.com/2018/09/12/investing/us-oil-production-russia-saudi-arabia/index.html
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Sep 14, 2018 - 03:15pm PT
Whatever happened to “the pause”.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Sep 14, 2018 - 03:50pm PT
Is that supposed to be a good thing, EdwardT? You just don't get it! It's very much like the Trump tax cuts. They are all about the short-term at the expense of the long-term. Maybe you don't have kids. I do.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Sep 14, 2018 - 04:11pm PT
Some will never divest ,or,learn.

There is nothing to do ,but,belittle.

I am beginning to believe that the best thing to do is ,when everyone has switched to E vehicles,or completely become at least carbon neutral overall,there will still be that dude with the F250.

I am going to STF away,long away.

That is coming.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Sep 14, 2018 - 04:30pm PT
Global Temps and Trends by President

Go Donald!

WBraun

climber
Sep 14, 2018 - 04:43pm PT
It's hypocrites like Malemute who caused climate change.

All their modern science fukups and then blaming everyone else.

Such hypocrites .....
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Sep 14, 2018 - 04:46pm PT
Like yourself Bruan. Lol
Sketch likes graphs.
WBraun

climber
Sep 14, 2018 - 04:47pm PT
Yap yap yap yap is all you have .....
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Sep 14, 2018 - 07:06pm PT
And Wilbur likes posting bogus crap. Sell those lies Mr. Backwoods Burnout. 👍
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Sep 14, 2018 - 09:00pm PT
Ha , ha , ha , ha ....Rotflmao....
Norton

climber
The Wastelands
Sep 14, 2018 - 09:05pm PT
Yes, Jody has it right

What you do not understand and only people like me and Jody do, is that "science" is only peer reviewed, tested, and constantly criticized by other scientists, that does NOT make it correct.

What is correct is what people say is correct. This is rightfully now called Alternative Facts.

For example, on June 3rd of this year there were some cooler temperatures than normal recorded in New Mexico. Therefore, "Global Warning" is proven wrong, a lie.

Now you elites who think you are more educated, smarter than me and Jody, can go on and on about your "studies" but we will just ignore them and claim the opposite. So there, LOL, Libtards, hahaha

rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Sep 14, 2018 - 09:07pm PT
Truth isn't truth...Perhaps you think my dog looks like toto from the wizard of oz...?
Norton

climber
The Wastelands
Sep 14, 2018 - 09:21pm PT
Truth isn't truth

exactly, Johnny

Norton

climber
The Wastelands
Sep 14, 2018 - 09:23pm PT
Reposted to show solidarity with Jody

Yes, Jody has it right

What you do not understand and only people like me and Jody do, is that "science" is only peer reviewed, tested, and constantly criticized by other scientists, that does NOT make it correct.

What is correct is what people say is correct. This is rightfully now called Alternative Facts.

For example, on June 3rd of this year there were some cooler temperatures than normal recorded in New Mexico. Therefore, "Global Warning" is proven wrong, a lie.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Sep 14, 2018 - 09:26pm PT
I'm all down with Jody...Waiting for Itchy Balls and Crotch Rocket to join in...Hail Jody...RJ
Gunks Ray

Trad climber
Gunks
Sep 20, 2018 - 02:42pm PT
It makes it all the more unbelievable that there are posters here that still believe that global warming is a giant hoax, when there were studies done by the oil companies in the 80's that confirm the current scientific consensus on global warming.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/sep/19/shell-and-exxons-secret-1980s-climate-change-warnings

In the 1980s, oil companies like Exxon and Shell carried out internal assessments of the carbon dioxide released by fossil fuels, and forecast the planetary consequences of these emissions. In 1982, for example, Exxon predicted that by about 2060, CO2 levels would reach around 560 parts per million – double the preindustrial level – and that this would push the planet’s average temperatures up by about 2°C over then-current levels (and even more compared to pre-industrial levels).

Later that decade, in 1988, an internal report by Shell projected similar effects but also found that CO2 could double even earlier, by 2030. Privately, these companies did not dispute the links between their products, global warming, and ecological calamity. On the contrary, their research confirmed the connections.

Shell’s assessment foresaw a one-meter sea-level rise, and noted that warming could also fuel disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, resulting in a worldwide rise in sea level of “five to six meters.” That would be enough to inundate entire low-lying countries.

Shell’s analysts also warned of the “disappearance of specific ecosystems or habitat destruction,” predicted an increase in “runoff, destructive floods, and inundation of low-lying farmland,” and said that “new sources of freshwater would be required” to compensate for changes in precipitation. Global changes in air temperature would also “drastically change the way people live and work.” All told, Shell concluded, “the changes may be the greatest in recorded history.”


For its part, Exxon warned of “potentially catastrophic events that must be considered.” Like Shell’s experts, Exxon’s scientists predicted devastating sea-level rise, and warned that the American Midwest and other parts of the world could become desert-like. Looking on the bright side, the company expressed its confidence that “this problem is not as significant to mankind as a nuclear holocaust or world famine.”

The documents make for frightening reading. And the effect is all the more chilling in view of the oil giants’ refusal to warn the public about the damage that their own researchers predicted. Shell’s report, marked “confidential,” was first disclosed by a Dutch news organization earlier this year. Exxon’s study was not intended for external distribution, either; it was leaked in 2015.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Sep 21, 2018 - 12:47pm PT
Why aren’t people who are supposed to be concerned concerned?

BBC:

Report slams ‘high flying’ UN environment chief

Matt McGrath - environment correspondent

The head of the UN body that leads on sustainability and green issues has been criticised for extensive and expensive air travel.

A draft internal audit, obtained by the Guardian and seen by the BBC, says that Erik Solheim's actions risked the reputation of UN Environment.
The report says he incurred costs of $488,518 (£373,557) while travelling for 529 out of 668 days.
There was "no oversight or accountability" to monitor this travel.
Mr Solheim says he has paid back the money where "instances of oversight" occurred.

The audit was carried out by the UN's Office of Internal Oversight Services (OIOS).
Across UN Environment, around $58m was spent on travel in the two years up to 2018.
OIOS points out that the amount of money UN Environment spends on travel essentially doubled over the three years between 2014 and 2017.
While all UN staff are expected to complete "mission reports" within two weeks of travel, OIOS found that these were often missing.
When they requested reports for 596 trips undertaken by 32 managers and staff, 210 mission reports were not provided, while around 200 others were only completed after the request was made.
The report is particularly critical of the travel undertaken by Mr Solheim, UN Environment executive director since 2016 and former Norwegian environment minister.
According to OIOS Mr Solheim's leave and travel were approved by a member of his office who reported directly to him, in contravention of UN rules.
The report says that Mr Solheim travelled extensively across the continents, making several trips and stops in Paris as well as Norway. On one occasion, "he made an eight-hour trip from Washington DC for a weekend in Paris, before taking another flight to New York city."
The draft audit says the senior management at UN Environment "fostered an organisational culture that defied established internal control systems".

After one request by a UN official for more information about a trip to his home country, the report says that Mr Solheim responded: "We cannot accept this question on holiday vs job. Please tell UN Nairobi it is totally irrelevant..we are not any longer living in the industrial age and they must stop treating me as if I am a 07 to 16 factory worker...the other side of this coin is that they must stop asking this stupid question".

The pattern of travel among senior management, said the auditors, was contrary to the ethos of carbon emission reduction. The report highlighted the former UN Secretary General's statement that "what we demand of others, we must do ourselves."
Environmentalists in Norway said the audit the report was "ironic and sad".
"I strongly believe even UN bodies, as well as everyone else, should be aware of their environmental impact and have policies and routines to reduce them," said Truls Gulowsen, from Greenpeace.
"Solheim has been a very visible UN Environment leader, which is good and clearly warrants travel, but this volume and attitude towards environmental footprints does not set a positive example."
In a statement, Mr Solheim said he wasn't able to comment in detail on the audit as it was a confidential process, but that he had paid back any money owed.
"The Office of Internal Oversight Services earlier this year investigated all my travels in great detail and found three instances of oversight out of all of them. The money was refunded immediately. If any other mistakes are found, we will immediately correct them.
"Where questions have been raised about the authorisation of my travel it should be noted that we have immediately put new procedures in place whereby my travel is approved by the office of the Secretary General."
"Let me underscore that we will work diligently and without question to implement the auditor's recommendations in the final report, and that we welcome any audit process and external oversight that helps improve operational efficiency."

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

This so typical of the hypocritical UN and EU socialist elite.
Apparently they haven’t heard of telephones or emails.


NutAgain!

Trad climber
South Pasadena, CA
Sep 21, 2018 - 02:38pm PT
Not sure if this is already in here somewhere, but it seems a worthy addition to the discussion and I apologize if it's a repeat:

 Shell and Exxon's secret 1980s climate change warnings

 http://www.climatefiles.com/shell/1988-shell-report-greenhouse/

 http://www.climatefiles.com/exxonmobil/1982-memo-to-exxon-management-about-co2-greenhouse-effect/
BeeTee

Social climber
Valdez Alaska
Sep 22, 2018 - 10:53am PT
Though I believe climate change is real...what to do about it is up for debate...what concerns me is all the blame directed at the supply side...oil companies per say....we can all do something about it changing like few styles etc....the approach I see now has Its downside in the fact that the outdoor industry has hijack the cause to in effect seek approval from there customers as if the Ihdustry is doing something about when in fact they are part of the problem...to me a true environmentalist is a minimalist....not a 60k plus income driving a dodge sprinter fat bike owner with a hundred cams claiming if they buy Patagonia they are somehow doing the world some favor...all these do good er outdoor companies latching on the idea if u just but from them your helping the environment....it's time for the outdoor world to look in the mirror instead of casting an aura of approval...I find it rather sanctimonious that here in the first world were over the top with toys but we blame others for the excesses of our consumption.....how does a multi billion dollar industry traded on Wall Street justify there actions....buy from us and you'll help the world....
Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Sep 22, 2018 - 11:43am PT
Reilly makes an excellent point. Al Gore's carbon footprint? Holy crap! George W. Bush has a much greener house in Texas, for example, than Lord Gore.

BAd
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Sep 22, 2018 - 12:08pm PT
^^^

If you can point to someone else’s hypocrisy you don’t feel as bad about your own.
BeeTee

Social climber
Valdez Alaska
Sep 22, 2018 - 08:34pm PT
Ok so I see if you point out hypocrisy then u must be hypocrite and therefore by that conclusion hypocrisy doesn't exist...hardly true.......that is a ridiculous statement when u think about it......my newest vehicle is a 1999 Ford Expedition with 162k miles on it,,,my work van has 192k miles.....I buy my bibs at second hand stores....still using the yellow koflachs.....I'm not saying everyone should live that way but one on....I walk the talk....my ice tools are probably 15 years old at least.....before u critique other industry's or people ....everyone should look at what they could do better themselves....
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Sep 22, 2018 - 11:07pm PT
Actually I'm not all that concerned with hypocrisy on the individual level when it comes to climate change.

Sure it is pretty silly for some who lives in a McMansion and eats a lot of beef to think they did their part because they bought a $50,000 electric car.

But I don't think we are going to make much of a dent in climate change by a few individuals making some selective decisions.

Is it reasonable of me to buy a 4x4 gas guzzler because my long-term carbon footprint is way below the American average because I don't have kids?

If I keep a 1999 vehicle running instead of buying a new $35,000-$50,000 vehicle, that would be typical of someone in my income bracket, what happens to that money? Does it disappear? Do I spend it on more flights/trips to Patagonia?

How does owning a dog compare to driving down to Sf once a month to see live music?

Does it add more to climate change to buy local tomatoes that were grown in a hothouse or ones that were flown in from further south?

And if, optimistically, 5% of the population worried about things like that, would it make any difference?

A broad carbon tax would go a long ways toward steering consumers to lower carbon choices.
Jay S

Mountain climber
Silver Gate, Mt
Sep 24, 2018 - 05:29pm PT
https://www.adn.com/arctic/2018/09/24/across-the-arctic-lakes-are-leaking-dangerous-greenhouse-gases/
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Sep 24, 2018 - 05:56pm PT
2018 Arctic Seaice Minimum is in.

Thirty-five percent higher than 2012. Is that a lot? 35%?

Yay 2018 minimum.
Hendo1

Trad climber
Toronto
Sep 26, 2018 - 06:33am PT
2012 was the record low. 2018 is still way lower than the 30-year average.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Sep 26, 2018 - 01:13pm PT
I wrote a paper on the CFC problem in the mid 80s for a podunk college. My professor told me he learned a lot from my research. The science was in and irrefutable.
The problem was run up the flagpole at many think tanks and eventually the science was discussed by politicians until, lo and behold, we collectively acknowledged the problem and did something about it before it was too late to make a difference.

From everything I have read on climate change, I believe it is too late to make a difference. If we stopped all CO2 emissions today average global temps will continue to rise for 100 years.

The number of things that caused CFC to be added to the atmosphere is very small and only affected a relatively few industries.

CO2 is a much different story.

It is not too late to make a difference. If over the next 30 to 50 years we brought net CO2 to zero, the earth, in 200 years time, would be in much better shape than if we continued on with business more or less as usual.

If you have beginning stages of emphysema, quitting smoking won't undo the damage. But you will still be better off than continuing a 2 day habit.

I actually think we have the technology to get carbon neutral by the end of the century and still maintain world living standards.

I have absolutely zero expectations that the world has the political will to make much of a dent in the problem.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Sep 26, 2018 - 04:16pm PT
The more I think about it, I really don't think that climate change will end the human species. What will happen, instead, will be a significant culling -- like maybe 90 or 95 percent, followed by a dark ages, and then a human comeback. We're like cockroaches. I'm trying to be optimistic.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Sep 29, 2018 - 06:43pm PT
If civilization collapses there will be a lot high quality tools laying around and metal that can be melted down.

But there are no easy coal or oil deposits to be had. The only fuel is going to be wood. That would really slow things down.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Sep 30, 2018 - 01:34pm PT
The area around trumpy's property in south Florida will be regularly submerged by high tides and storm surges more and more in the next few decades. https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/07/donald-trump-maralago-climate-change/

And in 80 years, when sealevel rise will be several times worse, it will be below sea level for much of the time. And with the trumpy denier do-nothing approach, it will continue to rise for hundreds of years. https://phys.org/news/2018-04-early-climate-action-big-effect.html#nRlv

Around 120,000 years ago, during the last interglacial period, sea levels rose 6 to 9 meters (20 to 30 feet) higher than today as the planet warmed by zero to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit). During the Pliocene Epoch 3 million years ago, which saw a carbon dioxide atmospheric concentration similar to today’s, sea levels rose by up to 10 to 30 meters (32 to 98 feet).
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/antarctica-meltdown-could-double-sea-level-rise/

Of course, sea level rise is only one of the many problems caused by Carbon emissions.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Oct 2, 2018 - 03:45pm PT
The area around trumpy's property in south Florida will be regularly submerged by high tides and storm surges more and more in the next few decades...

Such a shame that Trump won't live to see that.

Actually, strike that. Not shedding any tears when he kicks off.

But there are posters on this site, and others that I post on, that I hope live long enough to have grand-kids, and I hope their grand-kids can track down what they actually said BITD on sites like these.

So that it is 100% clear that granddad, despite future denials, actually was 100% part of the problem.

Life's small victories, but take them where you can find them.
Krease

Gym climber
the inferno
Oct 3, 2018 - 07:46am PT
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/30/climate/epa-trump-mercury-rule.html

This administration is striving to personify evil. Poor Brett Kavanaugh, that martyr of justice and keg-standing, ruled in favor of cutting the coal industry this well-deserved break. I can only hope there is indeed a "blue wave" in November so as to at least slow some of this awfulness down. F*#k you, tRump and co.
WBraun

climber
Oct 3, 2018 - 07:50am PT
Antichrist -- "Dumb people breed dumb people."

Thanks for perfectly describing yourself ......
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Oct 3, 2018 - 08:07am PT
UAH: Globally, the coolest September in the last 10 years.
her socks on the floor

Gym climber
Camino
Oct 3, 2018 - 08:47am PT
edT i'm sure you'll sign up for cancer treatment when you contract the parasite. "give me the shot! give me the pill! give me the cure! look what you've done to my world."[Click to View YouTube Video] so you trust medical science.

or how about when you want to spy the solar eclipse and those scientiest tell you exactly when and where to stand for the best spectating. oh my goodness, they are correct in their calculations.

or how about a jaunt on over to asia. for some climbing. or opium ingestion or whatever you fancy. them scientist sure are good at making planes fly.

f*#king hypocrite.

climate science is more real than some dipshit called moses that lived inside of a whale. or parted the red sea. anthropology and geo-science are more real than your stupid f*#king bible that claims a 4000 year old earth, that god smeared into existence in 7 days.

you present like an ignorant kindergarten dropout.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Oct 3, 2018 - 12:09pm PT
We are presently at a low in the 11 year solar cycle,
a temporary change in radiation from the sun.
The next temporary peak will be about 2024 or so.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/pmod/from:1980
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Oct 7, 2018 - 10:06pm PT
EdwardT is quoting from Roy Spencer's webpage

you can take a look at
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201808

year through August, 4th warmest in 139 years...
Lituya

Mountain climber
Oct 7, 2018 - 10:33pm PT
Not directly related to the increase in atmospheric ppm CO2, but I wonder about oxygen from time to time when I fire up my car or motorcycle. Free O2 is, perhaps, the signature of a living planet--took 2.4bn years to generate the oxygen in the mixture we breathe here on Earth. Looks like it will take 40,000 years to burn it all at our present rate. Good news is that's more fossil fuel than we theoretically have. So, FWIW.

http://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/trends/oxygen/modern_records.html

//"We are occasionally reminded that fossil fuel burning is depleting atmospheric oxygen at a rate of almost 1000 tons per second. There are about 32 million seconds in a year, so that somewhere around 30 billion tons of O2 are being converted to CO2 annually. There are about 1,200,000 billion metric tons of O2 in the atmosphere, so we can keep burning fossil fuels at the present rate for 40,000 years before we run out of oxygen. By then, all of the world's fossil fuel supply will have long since been exhausted. For a more complete, but less detailed, discussion of this topic see Et tu 02 by Wallace Broecker.

If we take the worlds supply of fossil fuel to be 10,000 billion metric tons of carbon, as per http://genomicscience.energy.gov/carboncycle/index.shtml and we oxidize all of it we would get about 37,000 billion metric tons of CO2, and about 27,000 billion metric tons of O2 would have been consumed. Some additional O2 would have also been consumed by oxidation of hydrogen in the (hydrocarbon) fuel, so that roughly 38,000 billion metric tons of oxygen would have been consumed. This is about 3.3 percent of the atmosphere's oxygen. Such a loss would be equivalent to increasing your elevation from sea level to about 330 meters, or about 1100 feet."//
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Oct 8, 2018 - 11:25am PT
Global temperature anomaly is down more than .5C to date this calendar year. You cali drama queens may be roastng in your own personal hell, but outside your echo chamber temps are plummeting. Almost erasing the full increase since 1850 and the depths of this deep solar minimum are yet to be reached.
derickland

Trad climber
homewood
Oct 8, 2018 - 11:45am PT
I've met you Rick and you fit the perfect demographic for modern day renegade:

Old, white, uneducated, overweight, male.

I understand your plight: you've no war left within.
Without petroleum, guns, padded seats, and money, you are helpless and venerable.

"Ohhh, i'm a rebel. I don't listen to scientists and i sit in my big truck better than you, while fingering my gun."

Despite your show, Rick, you've ended up like many other old, white males: scared.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Oct 8, 2018 - 06:43pm PT
oh, rick, you still post to this thread?

well, you have prediction pending... and it's not looking good for you...

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Oct 8, 2018 - 07:26pm PT
Oh Eddie, you poor fool. UAH GTA for this year is already down .5c below it's all time high.
monolith

climber
state of being
Oct 8, 2018 - 08:57pm PT
Oh my, Roy's got our 'skeptics' all excited.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Oct 8, 2018 - 09:10pm PT
rick, this year so far is the 4th warmest in 139 years
one data set for 1 month out of 1668 months is what you're crowing about.

You still don't know what defines climate.



rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Oct 8, 2018 - 09:32pm PT
We're talking about deviation from a 30 year mean here Ed. The facts are that the trend has basically been down over the noise of the 2015-2016 super El Nino. The average so far this year is over .5c below max reached in 1998 and 2016 El Nino years. True, my prediction of going below the 30 year mean hasn't yet been reached, but it isn't yet 2019 nor the bottom of the current solar cycle.
monolith

climber
state of being
Oct 8, 2018 - 09:39pm PT
Can't wait for the 'hasn't warmed since 2016' crowing.

Maybe Lord Monckton will resume his global warming halted graphs and you guys can start posting them here again.


Oh look Sumner, by your reasoning, most of global warming was obliterated in 2000 with a huge drop from 1998.

Your obsession with comparing highs to lows in noisy data is fascinating.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Oct 8, 2018 - 09:57pm PT
the variability you talk about is certainly understood in terms of ocean circulation temperature oscillations, rick

the increasing trend is there, and your "solar model" isn't at all close to what you stated back a few years ago when you were going on about the "hiatus" (which wasn't).

Roy Spencer's take on the lower troposphere measurements from the UG satellite data is less than credible, and you have no other data to show but Roy's ad hoc analysis.

But do carry on.
yanqui

climber
Balcarce, Argentina
Oct 9, 2018 - 03:00pm PT
That last I.P.C.C. report that Malemute linked is some pretty grim stuff. Based on over 6,000 studies and authored by more than 90 people from 40 countries it can hardly be brushed off as partisan.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Oct 9, 2018 - 07:03pm PT
actually it can calculate the probability of injury and survivability


the dashed lines show the calculation of Aorta rupture presuming the material strength of an average artery to be at the acceleration equivalent of 19g

EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Oct 10, 2018 - 07:09am PT
According to the IPCC, limiting global warming to 1.5°C will require an annual average investment of around 2.4 trillion dollars through 2035.
okay, whatever

climber
Oct 10, 2018 - 07:23am PT
Regarding terminal velocity at different levels in the atmosphere... estimates vary all over the place, depending on altitude and hence atmospheric density, the surface area and physical orientation of the falling person, and so on. Aortal rupture during acceleration to terminal velocity is evidently the most common proximate cause of death, as indicated on Ed Hartouni's graph above. https://hypertextbook.com/facts/1998/JianHuang.shtml
yanqui

climber
Balcarce, Argentina
Oct 10, 2018 - 07:53am PT
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Apparently, it's about 1500 feet after 12 seconds, for a skydiver in a standard face down (belly down) position, reaching a terminal velocity of about 120 mph.

Felix Baumgartner managed to reach a top speed of Mach 1.25 (about 970 mph) after 50 seconds (obviously falling miles further than 1500 feet) mainly by efficiently controlling his body position.
Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Oct 10, 2018 - 07:54am PT
Whoa, EdT. If that report is correct, guess what ISN'T going to happen? Time to sell that beach front property. Maybe my place at 4,200ft. will have some shoreline?

BAd
Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Oct 10, 2018 - 07:56am PT
Of course, Yanqui, he was falling through some VERY thin atmosphere. Length of the fall doesn't matter much after a couple of thousand feet--or 1,500 as you mentioned. Now THAT was a screamer.

BAd
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Oct 10, 2018 - 08:02am PT
He jumped from 128,100 feet — that's a height of 24.2 miles — and hit a maximum speed of 833.9 mph during a freefall that lasted four minutes

The highest speed ever reached in a speed skydiving competition is 601.26 km/h (373.6 mph)
yanqui

climber
Balcarce, Argentina
Oct 10, 2018 - 08:12am PT
Bad: The altitude was one factor. Play around with the NASA ap using different altitudes (e.g. try 0 then try 30,000 feet) with any given data:

https://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/airplane/termv.html

Then play around with cross-sectional area (Baumgartner's weight with gear was 118 kg and his cross-sectional area before slowing was about 0.25 sq mts).

A look at Baumgartner's fall (check out the cross-sectional area and the consideration of the drag coefficient):

http://www.physics.umd.edu/courses/Phys410/Anlage_Fall14/Dynamics%20of%20a%20Skydivers%20epic%20freefall.pdf

yanqui

climber
Balcarce, Argentina
Oct 10, 2018 - 08:30am PT
EdT: the Mach conversion table I used quickly should vary with air temperature. It would have been about that speed at sea level, but it was slower at altitude. So you are right, it was Mach 1.25 but only about 845 mph.

Still, a lot faster than 120 mph!
yanqui

climber
Balcarce, Argentina
Oct 10, 2018 - 08:51am PT
Anyways, it seems that you can rather drastically vary the distance fallen to reach terminal velocity by controlling body position during the fall, where 1500 feet is probably close to a minimum distance.


Edit to add a case in point: EdT's world record reference. The guy falls around 2400 meters (about 7900 feet) before reaching maximum velocity :

[Click to View YouTube Video]

Science and facts are cool! (I have a hard time multitasking this stuff while carrying on with life. Sorry for any errors. They've been mostly cleaned up, I think)

Now back to climate change and the costs of trying (or not) to fix the problem (I know even less about climate change than I do about free fall, so I'll mostly stay out).
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Oct 10, 2018 - 10:34am PT
Science may not be able to predict the exact temperature in 2030,

but it can predict that it will be too hot.

Being too hot is a big problem, but it is by no means the only problem. The arctic is warming much faster than the tropics. That is weakening the jet stream and playing havoc with the weather.

A weaker jet stream allows a drought inducing high pressure system to stay around longer. It can also allow the conditions that cause California to be pummeled by wet, winter storms to last longer. A weaker jet stream might make it easier for cold Siberian air masses to show up in North America. A weaker jet stream might cause more Atlantic hurricanes to make landfall.

So it isn't just the heat that is going to get you.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Oct 10, 2018 - 10:42am PT
Time to sell that beach front property.

I've mentioned it before on this thread, but I expect a collapse in southern Florida, and other, beach front property.

I have no desire to move to southern Florida, but if I did, I would rent. There is no way I would buy into that market.

I saw on the Newshour the other night, some builder was completing a supersized McMansion in Miami beach. The lower levels were watertight concrete walls. So that homeowner might be ok against rising sea levels and hurricanes. But if I was the reporter, I would have asked: Sure, your home can survive being an island. Where do you plan to buy groceries? Are you going to have a hybrid boat/car to get to your house? Do you think there is still going to be a city providing water and sewage services? Did you include generators so you can have electrical power?
i'm gumby dammit

Sport climber
da ow
Oct 10, 2018 - 11:33am PT
anyone can choose their own data, post graphs and manipulate the axis to make trends look how they want. but it's hard to argue the seas aren't getting warmer when virtually every tropical storm to reach the caribbean or eastern atlantic explodes into a cat 4 or higher storm in a matter of hours
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Oct 10, 2018 - 12:52pm PT
"can also allow the conditions that cause California to be pummeled by wet, winter storms to last longer."

the more likely prediction for california most years is:
1. the high pressure causing drought
2. warmer storms with rain instead of snow, causing less snowpack.
3. warmer temps causing faster melting, resulting in less water storage.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Oct 10, 2018 - 12:57pm PT
" limiting global warming to 1.5°C will require an annual average investment of around 2.4 trillion dollars through 2035."

Of course much of the reason for this amount is that we have done very little in the last 40 years since we first determined that global warming was a FACT. (Just like the trumpeter tax cut for the rich which uses 100% borrowed money, we like to stick the cost upon future generations so today's selfish entitled can continue their life of delusion.)

AND FURTHERMORE, that's not a NET cost. (oddly that doesn't matter to quacks such as the extreme court which just ruled that net costs are unconstitutional)
the COST to society of doing nothing and letting the warming go to 3-4°C as suggested by head in the sand trumpublicans, is many times higher than 2.4 trillion.

Cost of the Iraq War fiasco, which would never have been started if we didn't lust after their OIL (fossil fuels). (Bush Cheney Rummy Enron crime family) And add the continued conflicts that arose from this mistake. And the cost of disabilities and VA of lifetime health issues.
$3-4 TRILLION Dollars, Just in the USA. But the IPCC is talking about worldwide costs. Non-USA cost of the Iraq War: (nevermind, we don't count that).


 number of additional dead people due to drought, heat, refugees, war: Many Millions.
 cost of lost seafood due to warmer water holding less oxygen and ocean acidity increase which decreases seafood: Trillions.
 cost of rising seawater levels on lost housing, cities, farmland over the next 100 years: many Trillions.
 cost of lost farmland due to drought: Trillions.
 cost of pollution due to spills, toxic land and groundwater, soot, mercury, smog, etc from burning fossil fuels: Trillions.
 cost of lost water storage capacity due to less glaciers and snowpack: Trillions.
 cost of increased storm damage: Trillions

Of course many of these are external costs. So some old powerful people will take advantage of the tragedy of the commons to screw all the other people.

100 million 3rd world farmers lose their land - so what, they're un-american. We'll just shift our cattle yards as needed.

Increased heat caused deaths? no prob, we'll just turn up the AC here on Wall street.

Increased water pollution? screw those puny mining towns. I live in a mansion 500 miles away (with a six car garage) and I can afford extreme water treatment for my drinking water here on entitled avenue.

Less snowpack? So what, I'll just fly to northern BC ski resorts on my private jet.

Flooding damage subsidies for favored areas such as the $50 billion paid by the feds to rebuild NY after hurricane Sandy? Not my problem, I have my voodoo tax cuts and off shore tax avoidance schemes that magically run the economy.

Cost of losing a large percent of species? who cares, these are worthless. Got plenty of stuff in my aquariums at my 5 houses already. And I can see all the nature shows I want on my 120" screens.

Cost of dead trees and smoky fires? Sucks to be you. Fortunately I have servants to carry my oxygen tanks while I head over to my other vacay homes.

Less money available to maintain roads? So what, I'll just put bigger tires on my Earthroamer.

All these complaints: don't be silly, my followers do not follow reality. It's all god's will. The rapture is all you need to think about.
i'm gumby dammit

Sport climber
da ow
Oct 10, 2018 - 03:02pm PT
According to the IPCC, limiting global warming to 1.5°C will require an annual average investment of around 2.4 trillion dollars through 2035.
while some of that 'investment' actually means ignoring financial opportunities that would exacerbate the problem, I wish folks would hop on to the fact that the rest of it involves jobs. Lots and lots of jobs.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Oct 10, 2018 - 09:10pm PT
Caught part of an interview with this british lady on NPR about climate change...She said the brits accept the theory of climate change while the USA has politicized it...Sad...
yanqui

climber
Balcarce, Argentina
Oct 12, 2018 - 10:10am PT
It's interesting to read the comments on the youtube videos about Hurricane Michael (my only "television" is Netflix, so I checked out youtube to get an idea of the damage). Climate change is sometimes mentioned overtly but it seems to be a subtext in almost all the comments. The tone seems to range from "I told you so" to "Nothing new here: that kind of thing has been happening forever in Florida". Many posts disparagingly refer to the type of construction: homes need to be built like concrete bunkers and so on, which I guess is one way to "invest" in climate change. But it was interesting, to me, the tone. When the last big hurricane that hit Florida did less damage than expected, I didn't see any posts about the need to build more concrete bunkers, and the "fake news" posts resonated in the comments.

Edit to add: the last video I watched (that showcased the aftermath of destruction) had a surprising amount of comments about how God is pissed and the "end days" are near. With so many people thinking like that, maybe they're right: the "end days" are near.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Oct 12, 2018 - 01:14pm PT
Water temperature in the eastern Gulf of Mexico Oct 8 about 4-5 F above normal, which provides more energy for hurricanes.

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/egof.html
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2018/anoma.10.8.2018.gif
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
Oct 12, 2018 - 01:41pm PT
So why aren't the Russians concerned about it?

Because umpteen millions think they'll benefit from a climate change. A Siberia that's a couple degrees warmer? Отлично!

This shows the intricacies of the mess we're in.
Gunks Ray

Trad climber
Gunks
Oct 12, 2018 - 02:32pm PT
This ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

What other country might think that rising temperatures might be good for them besides a very large very northern sparsely populated country that isn't Canada?

And because one of Russia's only sources of revenue is the sale of OIL and GAS products, so the attempt to slow down or stop global warming would stop the sale of the only viable product that Russia has to sell besides arms!
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
Oct 15, 2018 - 07:28am PT
Pretty apropos cartoon there, imo.
HighTraverse

Trad climber
Bay Area
Oct 15, 2018 - 04:09pm PT
Some forms of insanity are beyond understanding. Especially those forms that in fact harm the believer.
Self delusion
Deny authority
Fake scepticism

Then you succumb to the myths
It's a commie plot
Scientists aren't to be believed
If it exists God will take care of it because we are his chosen people

Then you listen to the Capitalists who are only give a F--K about their own fortunes
Koch Bros
Trump


And ipso facto your conclusions:
Who gives a flying F--K about the Arctic anyway?
Drill baby drill!
It's a con job by Soros
dgbryan

Mountain climber
Hong Kong
Oct 15, 2018 - 08:27pm PT
//End Ordovician, 444 million years ago, 86% of species lost
Late Devonian, 375 million years ago, 75% of species lost
End Permian, 251 million years ago, 96% of species lost
End Triassic, 200 million years ago, 80% of species lost
End Cretaceous, 66 million years ago, 76% of all species lost//

This has cheered me up, in an odd kind of way ...
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Oct 15, 2018 - 09:22pm PT
hah, species schmecies... it's about beer!

Decreases in global beer supply due to extreme drought and heat

Wei Xie, Wei Xiong, Jie Pan, Tariq Ali, Qi Cui, Dabo Guan, Jing Meng, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Erda Lin & Steven J. Davis

Nature Plants
(2018)
http://www.nature.com/articles/s41477-018-0263-1

Abstract
Beer is the most popular alcoholic beverage in the world by volume consumed, and yields of its
main ingredient, barley, decline sharply in periods of extreme drought and heat. Although the
frequency and severity of drought and heat extremes increase substantially in range of future
climate scenarios by five Earth System Models, the vulnerability of beer supply to such extremes
has never been assessed. We couple a process-based crop model (decision support system for
agrotechnology transfer) and a global economic model (Global Trade Analysis Project model) to
evaluate the effects of concurrent drought and heat extremes projected under a range of future
climate scenarios. We find that these extreme events may cause substantial decreases in barley
yields worldwide. Average yield losses range from 3% to 17% depending on the severity of the
conditions. Decreases in the global supply of barley lead to proportionally larger decreases in
barley used to make beer and ultimately result in dramatic regional decreases in beer
consumption (for example, −32% in Argentina) and increases in beer prices (for example,
+193% in Ireland). Although not the most concerning impact of future climate change, climate-
related weather extremes may threaten the availability and economic accessibility of beer.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Oct 15, 2018 - 11:05pm PT
can also allow the conditions that cause California to be pummeled by wet, winter storms to last longer."

the more likely prediction for california most years is:
1. the high pressure causing drought
2. warmer storms with rain instead of snow, causing less snowpack.
3. warmer temps causing faster melting, resulting in less water storage.

California is likely to have more and longer droughts.

But it would be a mistake to think that more droughts means floods are a thing of the past.
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Oct 16, 2018 - 05:25am PT
The release of highly poisonous hydrogen sulfide gas from anoxic ocean waters is beginning anew.

Although the end-Permian extinction happened over a quarter of a billion years ago, the events that triggered it have added significance in the light of current-day climate change. ‘Satellite remote sensing has clearly shown that massive fish mortality in the Namibian coastal waters are associated with sulfidic waters,’ says Shen. ‘As a matter of fact, due to human-induced eutrophication and global warming, the episodic occurrence of hydrogen sulfide has been reported in many coastal waters – such as those of the Gulf of Mexico, California and western India.’

https://www.chemistryworld.com/news/ocean-chemistry-changes-triggered-earths-greatest-extinction-event/2500368.article
Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Oct 18, 2018 - 06:48am PT
You may be right, August, re. Cali droughts, but we've had truly BIBLICAL droughts historically, like 30-year-plus monsters that predate any human powered climate change. The American west is a harsh mistress, always has been.

BAd
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Oct 18, 2018 - 10:59am PT
You may be right, August, re. Cali droughts, but we've had truly BIBLICAL droughts historically, like 30-year-plus monsters that predate any human powered climate change. The American west is a harsh mistress, always has been.

Yes there have been some really serious droughts and floods in the distant past. And even without human powered climate change there would be really serious ones in the future.

But the climate has generally, over the last 10,000 years or so since the last ice age, been pretty stable and pretty favorable for the rise of human civilization. We are disrupting that.

So it isn't the 1 in 10,000+ year events that are the big worry. It is that the current ecosystem (both the natural and the human ecosystem) are not compatible with where things are going. If things in CA had always been hot and dry, there would be fewer forest. As it is, it is going to be a painful transition as vast tracts of forest burn and gets replaced with some type of chaparral.

Same thing with our expectation of the amount of available water for agriculture and other uses.
Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Oct 18, 2018 - 11:23am PT
I wish our records were longer. It will be interesting, to say the least, to see how this plays out. Here's a wiki-list of recorded Cali droughts:

1841

The drought was so bad that "a dry Sonoma was declared entirely unsuitable for agriculture".[1]
1863-1864

This drought was preceded by the torrential floods of 1861–1862.[1]

1924

This drought encouraged farmers to start using irrigation more regularly. Because of the fluctuation in California weather, the need for consistent water availability was crucial for farmers.[1]


1929–1934

This drought occurred during the infamous Dust Bowl period that ripped across the plains of the United States in the 1920s and 1930s.[1] The Central Valley Project was started in the 1930s in response to drought.[38]
1950s

The 1950s drought contributed to the creation of the State Water Project.[38]


1976–77

1977 had been the driest year in state history to date.[39] According to the Los Angeles Times, "Drought in the 1970s spurred efforts at urban conservation and the state's Drought Emergency Water Bank came out of drought in the 1980s."[38]


1986–1992

California endured one of its longest droughts ever, observed from late 1986 through late 1992. Drought worsened in 1988 as much of the United States also suffered from severe drought. In California, the six-year drought ended in late 1992 as a significant El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean (and the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991) most likely caused unusual persistent heavy rains.[40]


2007–2009

2007–2009 saw three years of drought conditions, the 12th worst drought period in the state's history, and the first drought for which a statewide proclamation of emergency was issued. The drought of 2007–2009 also saw greatly reduced water diversions from the state water project. The summer of 2007 saw some of the worst wildfires in Southern California history.[41]


2011–2017
Main article: 2011–17 California drought
Progression of the drought from December 2013 to July 2014

The period between late 2011 and 2014 was the driest in California history since record-keeping began.[42] In May 2015, a state resident poll conducted by Field Poll found that two out of three respondents agreed that it should be mandated for water agencies to reduce water consumption by 25%.[43]

The 2015 prediction of El Niño to bring rains to California raised hopes of ending the drought. In the spring of 2015, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration named the probability of the presence of El Niño conditions until the end of 2015 at 80%. Historically, sixteen winters between 1951 and 2015 had created El Niño. Six of those had below-average rainfall, five had average rainfall, and five had above-average rainfall. However, as of May 2015, drought conditions had worsened and above average ocean temperatures had not resulted in large storms.[44]

Of course, we had that WHOPPER rainfall year that broke all records. Global weirding indeed.

BAd
yanqui

climber
Balcarce, Argentina
Oct 18, 2018 - 03:42pm PT
More fun for Florida. Described as an "extremely rare" occurrence, Florida's red tide has reached the Space Coast. Does climate change play a role?

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/08/news-longest-red-tide-wildlife-deaths-marine-life-toxins/?user.testname=none
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Oct 18, 2018 - 05:04pm PT
Meanwhile New Orleans is building their $1 billion+ airport.
This sounds like a cash disposal project as the city has a dismal future.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Oct 19, 2018 - 12:30pm PT
Most of the deniers have finally disappeared from this thread, but they continue to run the country and much of the world.

Even California polling is up in the air whether we are about to overturn the minor gasoline and diesel tax increase.
Part of the reason is a complaint with the wasteful expensive California government, but another part is likely that because California already has more focus on renewables than most of the country, and the rest aren't going to go along with saving the world, then we might as well all buy gashogs and party on. There has been no federal gas tax increase since 1993 so due to inflation the federal gas tax has decreased by 68%.
https://taxfoundation.org/state-gasoline-tax-rates-2017/

This is also the excuse used by the rest of the country to excuse why they don't do anything. They can only think in very short terms. They blame China, India, etc. for not doing enough and make excuses for not even trying to negotiate treaties with goals for everyone. America First! even if it kills us.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Oct 20, 2018 - 11:33am PT
They blame China, India, etc. for not doing enough and make excuses for not even trying to negotiate treaties with goals for everyone. America First! even if it kills us.

I still have hope that humanity will come to its senses.

But I have zero optimism.

Outside of some improbable technological breakthrough that makes it really cheap to suck large amounts of CO2 out of the atmosphere and bury it...

I think civilization is in for a world of pain.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Oct 22, 2018 - 11:57am PT
Those who survive the collapse of civilization will be in a world of shortages.

I don't expect the current civilization to last forever. Whether climate change, probably combined with mass migrations and unstable populist politics could cause a collapse in the next few hundred years. Perhaps. I wouldn't rule it out. But where societies and technology is going to go that far in the future isn't knowable.

If there is a collapse, there will be a huge drop in population that would presumably stabilize at some point. At that point, I'm not sure I would describe that as "shortages" any more than a stable, low density population of hunter/gatherers faces shortages.

It would be curious to know how far civilization would collapse back to. But I think there would be a tipping point beyond which things would fall apart back to a pre-industrial level. If large scale mechanized farming breaks down and/or trade and the ability to move food and goods, you have mass starvation even in the rich world. At that point, all bets would be off.

There would be a lot of tools and a lot of know-how lying around. But almost all the easily accessible oil and coal is gone. I think it would be much harder to re-industrialize if the best/only fuel source is wood.

Hopefully the world doesn't find out. Still not very optimistic.
Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Oct 26, 2018 - 07:28am PT
I love getting on here and seeing how many times in a row Malmute can post. Four times on this page alone! Classic. LOL.

BAd
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Oct 26, 2018 - 07:31am PT
Is the sound of one hand clapping the path to enlightenment?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Oct 26, 2018 - 12:03pm PT
this will be an interesting lawsuit to watch, it's been going on for 3 years now

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/24/climate/exxon-lawsuit-climate-change.html

The suit does not charge Exxon with playing a role in creating climate change, though the burning of fossil fuels is a major contributor to human-driven warming. Rather, it is a fairly straightforward shareholder fraud suit, the kind that New York attorneys general have long brought and successfully prosecuted under state law.

It says the company engaged in a “longstanding fraudulent scheme” to deceive investors, analysts and underwriters “concerning the company’s management of the risks posed to its business by climate change regulation.”

The value of oil/gas reserves at the current price is huge, trillions of dollars, but these are dollars to be made in the future.

If the future involves regulation(s) that prevents that oil/gas from being sold, the value of the reserves are greatly reduced.

As I understand the lawsuit, ExxonMobile was trying to estimate the future value of its reserves given the progress of climate change driven from human energy use exhausted into the atmosphere, and they had various scenarios to project the reserve values.

However, they didn't tell the ExxonMobile stock holders about those calculations of reserve value, rather, they painted a rosy picture of profits from those reserves into the future and perhaps downplayed the likelihood of government regulating the use of fossil fuel. I guess they didn't want to worry their investors too much about that likelihood, or the consequent change of their reserve's value. They certainly lobbied to prevent regulation in the US for quite a while.

“Exxon provided false and misleading assurances that it is effectively managing the economic risks posed to its business by the increasingly stringent policies and regulations that it expects governments to adopt to address climate change.”

New York state asserts that this constitutes fraud on the part of ExxonMobile.
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Oct 26, 2018 - 06:57pm PT
The issue with the Exxon lawsuit is that the SEC provides clear guidance on how to value mineral reserves for the public's consumption.

If the government tells you how to value reserves, and you follow their guidance, how can the government sue you for how you value those reserves?

Value is based on trailing price (so says SEC guidance), not some hypothetical future price based on conjecture.
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Oct 27, 2018 - 01:20pm PT
Ecological Armageddon! Insects Vanish All over the World

[Click to View YouTube Video]

excellent video + lots of links

Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/10/09/1722477115

------------------------------------------------------------------------


Everywhere, invertebrates are threatened by climate change, competition from invasive species and habitat loss. Insect abundance seems to be declining precipitously, even in places where their habitats have not suffered notable new losses. A troubling new report from Germany has shown a 75% plunge in insect populations since 1989, suggesting that they may be even more imperilled than any previous studies suggested.

Various kinds of anecdotal evidence appear to support these observations. The environmental journalist Michael McCarthy has noted the seeming disappearance of the windscreen phenomenon. Once, he writes, “any long automobile journey,” especially one undertaken in summer, “would result in a car windscreen that was insect-spattered”. In recent years this phenomenon seems to have vanished.


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/14/a-different-dimension-of-loss-great-insect-die-off-sixth-extinction

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Freakishly Low Sea Ice Regrowth

Arctic sea ice regrowth in October is freakishly slow. We are at record low ice extent for late October; even lower than the 2012 minimum. In this video, and the next, I chat about Beaufort Gyre stalling and reversal, atmospheric and ocean circulation changes, sea-surface and water column temperatures, salinities, heat transport, and much more. Since formation in 2015, there have been two permanent hot spots in the oceans off Svalbard, with water temperatures at 78 degrees latitude North of 18.5 degrees Celsius in late October.

[Click to View YouTube Video]
fricken chips

Trad climber
utah, usa
Oct 28, 2018 - 01:44pm PT
i'm sorry i've been lying to you all along.
winter is not real. it was just a friendly hoax -
i was getting up in the middle of the night
while you were sleeping and i put snow on the mountains
and wind down the ridges. i filled up the rivers and lakes.
and painted gray skies for you. all for you.

but i'm f*#king done, now. i'm hanging up my humor
and crossing my arms, wearing a smug smile.

if you want to tell your children that there are seasons
then you better spike your rum with some caffeine and get
used to staying up late with alpine bedtimes and lot's of miles in your boots and it's a thankless job - delivering winter to naive believers.

i'll tell you what.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Oct 30, 2018 - 06:36am PT
Dana Nuccitelli has arguably written more about climate change than any other journalist.

From his most recent story:

Note: this will be our final entry on Climate Consensus - the 97%. The Guardian has decided to discontinue its Science and Environment blogging networks. We would like to thank this great paper for hosting us over the past five years, and to our readers for making it a worthwhile and rewarding endeavor.
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Oct 30, 2018 - 09:54am PT

Amid a backdrop of U.S. politicians still questioning whether the changing climate is attributable to humans (it is), it's quite likely that we’ve actually boosted Earth's carbon dioxide — a potent greenhouse gas — to the highest levels they’ve been in some 15 million years.

https://mashable.com/article/climate-change-carbon-pollution-15-million-years/#2NNd5z49biqa
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Oct 30, 2018 - 12:16pm PT

also from Dana Nuccitelli:

Canada will start a revenue neutral carbon tax in Spring 2019.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/oct/26/canada-passed-a-carbon-tax-that-will-give-most-canadians-more-money
Lituya

Mountain climber
Oct 30, 2018 - 01:02pm PT
http://www.supertopo.com/climbers-forum/3137223/Camper-vans-versus-travel-trailers-which-is-for-you

clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Nov 1, 2018 - 09:01am PT
Massive Canadian glaciers shrinking rapidly

“The region is one of the hotspots for warming, which is something we’ve come to realize over the last 15 years,” said David Hik of Simon Fraser University. “The magnitude of the changes is dramatic.”

In their recent State of the Mountains report published earlier in the summer, the Canadian Alpine Club found that the Saint Elias mountains – which span British Columbia, the Yukon and Alaska – are losing ice faster than the rest of the country.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/30/canada-glaciers-yukon-shrinking
TradMike

Trad climber
Cincinnati, Ohio
Nov 1, 2018 - 11:22am PT
Population Explosion is the main culprit of increases in CO2 as of late. You cannot deny that each individual has a carbon footprint with some being smaller than others but none a net zero that I can see (maybe some dude living off the land in a remote part of the world - maybe a handful). Global, ocean going container ships use 90% of the globes daily fuel consumption (buy local - shut down global trade). The true way to balance things out and become more sustainable would be a reduced footprint and population is part of it. There are only so many resources on earth and we are using all the precious ones at an alarming rate and no solution be it easy or difficult to point to. Say you did somehow go all solar and wind powered, there are still too many people to provide enough power this way to satisfy all without giving up everything you find enjoyable. We are starting to see great conflicts in areas where the resources are nearly gone or not enough for the larger population densities. We are creating an apocalypse of Global proportions. First it will be the migrants fleeing areas they have overpopulated beyond what it could support and still be happy. When resources get slim, the bad get violent to protect a piece for themselves. Global pollution is off the charts (tied closely to population). I have seen for myself how the oceans have been dying from all the pollution we dump into them at an ever increasing rate as the population climbs. Florida and many other states/countries still dump their sewage straight into the ocean. Add all the nutrients from this sewage to the agricultural runoff nutrients (which supports this huge population) and you get a red tide that will only get worse killing off all marine life.

The only solution I see, would be to reduce population down to a reasonable level. This could be done by only have one child to replace yourself. With the death rates as they are, this would slowly reduce the population. Maybe then, a couple could consider having more then two children. Until then, watch the migration and all areas of the globe getting crowded and many more and more frequent conflicts. Forget climbing as we used to know it, there will be hordes of people at the cliffs.

Lituya

Mountain climber
Nov 2, 2018 - 09:37pm PT
The report found that more than half of global industrial emissions since 1988 – the year the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was established – can be traced to just 25 corporate and state-owned entities.

...and the people who consume their products. Like you.
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Nov 3, 2018 - 01:47pm PT
The EPA's Climate Change Page Is Just Gone Now
A report released this week by the Environmental Data & Governance Initiative reveals that the removal of climate change information from the EPA website is set to be a long-term policy of the Trump administration.

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/8xjwpz/the-epa-page-that-provided-climate-change-information-is-just-gone-now

right click on photo and select "view image" for great big image

Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 3, 2018 - 01:51pm PT

""...and the people who consume their products. Like you. "


"adherence to honesty-in-advertising would put a giant dent in that problem for a measly investment... "



The best way to be honest about the emissions is a simple revenue neutral carbon tax.
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Nov 3, 2018 - 02:03pm PT
Revenue neutral ... huh... so, you mean a regressive tax on the poor who consume the products of the companies that produce the products (emissions) at a higher rate per capita that the rich?

And here I thought you all cared...

You tax the emissions of companies, you tax the consumer.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 3, 2018 - 02:16pm PT
Everyone should pay for the external costs of their emissions. No exceptions. There is no sacred right to pollute. All policies with loopholes would be gamed.

To make it revenue neutral, the money should be used to lower taxes on the working & middle class, so that Warren Buffet and Donald Trump's employees are no longer in a higher total tax bracket than them.
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Nov 3, 2018 - 02:32pm PT
excellent stuff on climate and nature in general:

https://twitter.com/LizHadly
Lituya

Mountain climber
Nov 3, 2018 - 02:33pm PT
Carbon tax schemes are nothing more than rearranging deck chairs. Only an internationally agreed mandate to phase out fossil fuels by a date-certain will work IMO. Government should regulate--not participate.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 3, 2018 - 03:43pm PT
Our existing policy of no carbon fee is a far worse version of shifting deck chairs (with high emissions users forcing their impacts on everyone else). A revenue neutral carbon fee is at least a much better version that gets us in position to be able to ban fossil fuels in the long run.

A ban is great in the long run, but does very little for many decades. You need a phase-in plan. In the shorter run, requirements like in California for a rising percentage of green electricity can work. But how do you cut use of fossil fuels for cars and building heating? Are you going to restrict the supply - causing massive strife? A supply restriction without a demand restriction just means the price of fuel would double or triple, with all the profit still going to fossil fuel companies. People would continue to burn fossil fuels for their existing petroleum cars and heated buildings, unless this is disincentivized. Simple taxes are more effective than complicated policies and subsidies to incentivize the worst users to use less fossil fuels, and gradually willingly switch to alternatives.

As you say, the RNCF (revenue neutral carbon fee) does need to be Global.
That may be difficult and will require global enforcement penalties. But at this point, due to top naysayer deniers like the USA, we haven't even tried.

Lituya

Mountain climber
Nov 3, 2018 - 05:27pm PT
I'll bet if USA signed onto a treaty that said, for example, no coal plants operating after 2050 and, say, no new internal combustion engines produced after 2040 (except aviation turbines), the market would find a way to make it happen. Volvo is already on the path.

Of course, govt would have to quickly permit the alternatives--new dams, nuclear plants, wind, solar, tidal projects. Replacing dense carbon energy won't be free.
TLP

climber
Nov 3, 2018 - 06:22pm PT
I'd love to see either or both of these approaches! Or anything nationwide/global. However, regulatory history shows that absolute solutions die by a thousand cuts of exceptions, starting with the jet engine turbines (what about smaller planes, both private and public - including water bombers for firefighting? then the next exception, and another, and pretty soon not much gets done).

I agree it also needs to be urgent to thoroughly vet the alternatives and get on the best ones immediately. All of the highly centralized ones have major issues to resolve. There probably aren't enough (maybe not any) suitable sites for enough hydroelectric dams to replace much of our electricity needs, especially when you consider the climatic uncertainties and likelihood that higher variability is one of few things that we can be sure will be in our future. Nuclear could certainly be made safe to operate if we really wanted to, but waste disposal seems to be a fatal flaw in that approach: we haven't made any progress on that at all in all these 50 or 60 years. (Though to be fair, all the vast amounts of coal fly ash that are currently already released into the environment in one way or another are responsible for more radioactive pollution than all the nuclear plants combined...)

Solar and wind options are currently the most scalable, and are suitable for either distributed (on your own house or factory) or centralized power generation, though these also have adverse impacts (not as large as not trying to ameliorate climate change at all). Tidal is interesting, especially suitable since so many large cities are located on coasts.

Then there are the very real consequences of mining all the minerals for batteries. Mostly readily mitigated, you just have to do it and price it into the energy cost. Basically a clean up your own mess kind of approach. Which fossil fuel industries absolutely are not doing.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Nov 3, 2018 - 07:44pm PT
read that a fuel rod is 'spent' when its measured output falls 8% below that of when new...

Good thing it can be reprocessed over and over and over.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_reprocessing

TLP, the reason I excepted aviation is that there is no conceived alternative for the status quo re power and speed. Nitrogen-based fertilizer is another big one with huge inputs that can't be found elsewhere.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 3, 2018 - 08:51pm PT
"say, no new internal combustion engines produced after 2040"

Unless you disincentive it, people will keep the old ones running for another 70 years, same as Cuba.
thebravecowboy

climber
The Good Places
Nov 3, 2018 - 08:53pm PT
life is short, hot and hard. the sand is cool and soft, easier to bury the head.

longer-form: escapism costs gasoline, for me. not really tryin' to reproduce or anything, and the reality is that the human cockroach will probably abide, as does the Earth, and the Dude, and stuff.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Nov 3, 2018 - 09:23pm PT
Unless you disincentive it, people will keep the old ones running for another 70 years, same as Cuba.

The disincentive would likely be baked into the macro-economics of a petrol industry now a shadow of its former self. Gasoline would be expensive and scarce. IC engine cars would be a hobby.
TLP

climber
Nov 3, 2018 - 09:54pm PT
I totally get the rationale for excepting aviation, and agree there's no plausible alternative right now. But it's the camel's nose. The folks that own the governments of several major countries including the U.S. and Russia like their planes and helicopters, they'll get their exceptions, and then we're off to the races. Agriculture (which also has a big ownership stake in government) will also maintain it's infeasible to maintain our level of food production without ICEs, or will just keep running them for a century anyway. And we all have to eat, no? And on and on. Yes we should have some hard targets, but history shows that's not effective by itself.

That's where a combination approach can help keep things on track. Carbon tax has its downsides too. Ideally it should be returned to the lower end of the income scale who tend to be more affected both by consumption taxes and by climate effects, but then we'll hear about, oh, some of it should help mitigate climate effects... and that part will end up being diverted to high-end housing on coasts and other stupid places.

So, no matter what, a lot of vigilance and dedication to the goal is required. But the first and most important step is what we see right here: acknowledge there's a big problem and start talking about doing something about it. Soon! Thanks to all for their informative and thoughtful posts.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 4, 2018 - 12:06am PT
Ah, so you have ended up agreeing with me and refuting yourself.

"The disincentive would likely be baked into the macro-economics of a petrol industry now a shadow of its former self. Gasoline would be expensive and scarce. IC engine cars would be a hobby."

What happened to your silly claims that expensive gas is a bad thing?

If it gets expensive due to an RNCF you say it's bad.
But if it's expensive due to these vague shadow bakings and magical hobbys, that is a good thing.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Nov 8, 2018 - 05:24pm PT
What happened to your silly claims that expensive gas is a bad thing?

If it gets expensive due to an RNCF you say it's bad.
But if it's expensive due to these vague shadow bakings and magical hobbys, that is a good thing.

Again, for your benefit, Splater, a carbon tax simply puts govt into bed with producers. Not sure why you're having so much difficulty with this. In any event, not sure why you're sniping; we're basically on the same side re thread topic, right?
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Nov 18, 2018 - 09:36am PT
All those blue Californicators are a bunch of hypocrites. They are too uncaring to bother to
recycle their cellphones so they just throw away 42,000 per day!
TLP

climber
Nov 18, 2018 - 10:35am PT
Malemute's right; but not going hard after fuel efficiency is not just a climate disconnect, it is bad for the consumer public, and bad for business interests. It's monumentally idiotic.

For example, over the time period I've owned my current work vehicle, a 10% difference in mpg would amount to a fuel cost difference of about $4000, which is roughly 20% of the vehicle price paid. Paying more for a vehicle that gets better mileage pencils out as a big savings over time. Not to mention climate and air quality benefits.

The rest of the world is a big market for vehicles, and they are not so dimwitted. US executives might figure that in the short run their stock options are worth more if they don't invest to be able to compete on mileage, but in the long run we lose out to the rest of the world; they'll eat our lunch, dinner, and dessert too.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Nov 18, 2018 - 05:06pm PT
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2018-11-18/minister-says-409-injured-in-gas-tax-protests-around-france
TLP

climber
Nov 18, 2018 - 05:47pm PT
del cross, well, those are the numbers for my vehicle. Actual miles driven, and the 10% difference in amount of fuel to drive that distance, multiplied by a price per gallon that's representative of recent years, in the two states where I drive (mostly). It's not perfect; gas price was lower when I bought the vehicle, and it's much higher out in the boonies. I paid about $20K for it, and the cumulative gas cost for a 10% difference in mileage is roughly $4K. For a 20% difference in mileage, double that.

Vehicles cost a lot more than they did then, and it's possible the added cost of a hybrid wouldn't pay off unless you keep it for decades. If we were really paying the total cost, including health and environmental damages like increased costs of fires and floods and storms, fuel efficiency would be a gigantic bargain.

Edited to add: by far the most spiff platform for vehicles is the one used by the Chevy Volt, and there's now a pickup truck (Workforce is the brand I think). These are fully electric vehicles with an onboard gas-powered generator once your charge is used up. Even when running entirely on the gas generator, I think the mileage is way better than a comparable gas ICE vehicle (not sure). Then factor in that you can charge it from your solar panels, and it's a good plan.
john hansen

climber
Nov 18, 2018 - 08:12pm PT
Is there a way to create energy from carbon with out burning it?

A simple question.

I doubt that it can be done.

I think the human race is in for some rough times ahead, we keep polluting and degrading every environment we touch.

The sea's abundance and coral reefs are already going down hill.

Like the buffalo, human's exploit everything they can until there are no more.

There is already a mass extinction event going on and it is caused by mankind and global warming.

I live in Hawaii and 70% of the endemic birds have gone extinct

So much land in the world is being cleared for things like palm oil farms, and altered from it's original state . some day maybe we will figure it out but until then.

Migration pathways are blocked by freeways , where cars and trucks spew more carbon onto the air.

The Polar bears are suffering from too little ice , the walrus's are suffering too,,crowding on shore when usually they're out on the ice.




Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Nov 19, 2018 - 07:48am PT
While not perfect, the polar bear sitch isn't too bad, with WWF listing only one area where populations are decreasing. Most areas are stable and a couple are increasing. Some very large areas are basically unknown/un-surveyed.

https://arcticwwf.org/species/polar-bear/population/

Chill the 'eff out. This is not an argument against climate change. Jeez! Just pointing out some info.

BAd
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 20, 2018 - 04:17pm PT
The Polar bears are suffering from too little ice , the walrus's are suffering too,,crowding on shore when usually they're out on the ice.

Most polar bear populations are healthy. At least the ones being monitored.


Not sure where you got your information on Walruses. I couldn't find any info about their climate-related suffering.
john hansen

climber
Nov 20, 2018 - 04:31pm PT

https://globalnews.ca/news/1592488/about-35000-walruses-gather-on-alaska-beach-due-to-lack-of-sea-ice/


EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 20, 2018 - 05:00pm PT
Walrus haulouts have been documented in the early 30s and in 1978.

http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/arctic/Arctic33-2-226.pdf

Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Nov 20, 2018 - 05:22pm PT
Interesting about insurance, Malemute. There is a similar problem in flood prone areas in parts of the US, but idiot politicians decided the gov't should insure what no one else would, so the tax payer helps to rebuild in areas that simply shouldn't have any homes. I listened to a podcast--Planet Money, I believe--that described one homeowner who has rebuilt--get this--about 15 times over the years! Effin' insane. Maybe insurance shouldn't be available for extreme flood or fire zone, unless, of course, private companies are willing to supply it--at a price, no doubt.

BAd
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Nov 20, 2018 - 07:31pm PT
When I flew over the Rockies last month I was shocked to see the lack of snow.

Never mind the lawns of suburban Colorado, there won't be enough to drink if this keeps up.

And agriculture?

How long before the famine riots.

I have my own well, few neighbors (and they all keep a year's food in reserve)

August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Nov 21, 2018 - 10:17am PT

How long before the famine riots.

I have my own well, few neighbors (and they all keep a year's food in reserve)

Having a few weeks of food around at all times seems like a good idea. But I always wonder about the ones that have a year's supply. After the year is up, the grocery stores are going to open back up? They expect to be sufficient in subsistence farming after a year?

And famine riots is the correct description. Do they think everyone who doesn't have food is going to quietly starve? I would expect gangs of men to go door-to-door stealing food at gunpoint. The cops/sheriffs/national guard would probably make the most powerful gangs, unless, of course, there is a military base nearby.
Minerals

Social climber
The Deli
Nov 21, 2018 - 11:37am PT
Any of you drive a vehicle that is powered by biodiesel?

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/20/magazine/palm-oil-borneo-climate-catastrophe.html
monolith

climber
state of being
Nov 21, 2018 - 01:34pm PT
https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/68/4/281/4644513

Abstract: Increasing surface temperatures, Arctic sea-ice loss, and other evidence of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) are acknowledged by every major scientific organization in the world. However, there is a wide gap between this broad scientific consensus and public opinion. Internet blogs have strongly contributed to this consensus gap by fomenting misunderstandings of AGW causes and consequences. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have become a “poster species” for AGW, making them a target of those denying AGW evidence. Here, focusing on Arctic sea ice and polar bears, we show that blogs that deny or downplay AGW disregard the overwhelming scientific evidence of Arctic sea-ice loss and polar bear vulnerability. By denying the impacts of AGW on polar bears, bloggers aim to cast doubt on other established ecological consequences of AGW, aggravating the consensus gap. To counter misinformation and reduce this gap, scientists should directly engage the public in the media and blogosphere.

EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 21, 2018 - 02:02pm PT
Although the effects of warming on some polar-bear subpopulations are not yet documented and other subpopulations are apparently still faring well, the fundamental relationship between polar-bear welfare and sea-ice availability is well established, and unmitigated AGW assures that all polar bears ultimately will be negatively affected

Good stuff.
monolith

climber
state of being
Nov 21, 2018 - 02:03pm PT
Funny, Sketch, your cherry picked spinning does not match the science-based consensus that polar bears are threatened.

Good stuff.

Although the effects of warming on some polar-bear subpopulations are not yet documented
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 21, 2018 - 03:45pm PT
monolith

climber
state of being

Nov 21, 2018 - 02:03pm PT
Funny, Sketch, your cherry picked spinning does not match the science-based consensus that polar bears are threatened.

Cherry picked spinning? The plight of the polar bears is a major part of the study.

Too bad the reality of polar bear populations doesn't seem to support the science-based consensus that polar bears are threatened.

Or perhaps you can show which polar bears sub-populations are suffering due to global warming.

If you're game, we can bet on whether or not Southern Beaufort Sea population is still declining when the next survey comes out.

I was just pointing out the authors disclaimer. It's pretty funny. Almost as funny (not ha ha) that this "study" is a peer-reviewed study, published in science journal.
Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Nov 21, 2018 - 04:15pm PT
Notable, however, is virtually a majority of the area NOT surveyed or poorly understood. There's a lot not known here re. polar bear pops. I can't imagine a more difficult survey given the many many thousands of square miles to cover.

BAd
monolith

climber
state of being
Nov 21, 2018 - 05:42pm PT
I'll go with the science consensus as shown in that article, Sketch.

Sea ice is declining and threatening polar bear survival.

Somehow you've deluded yourself that you know better.

Good for you, Sketch.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 21, 2018 - 05:53pm PT
Yeah. You stick with generalities. Same old same old.
monolith

climber
state of being
Nov 21, 2018 - 05:57pm PT
You can find the answers with Google, Sketch.

Give it a try and post back with the evidence that the overwhelming consensus that sea ice habitat is declining and polar bears are threatened is wrong.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 21, 2018 - 06:07pm PT
The polar bear population is healthy.

See above.

Derp
monolith

climber
state of being
Nov 21, 2018 - 06:17pm PT
LOL, that single chart destroys the consensus that polar bears are threatened by sea ice loss.

Keep on tilting at windmills (and name calling), Sketch.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 21, 2018 - 07:03pm PT
You keep pushing scientific research showing the horrors of those mean old denier blogs. Oh my! This is where climate research funding is being spent?

Sad.
monolith

climber
state of being
Nov 21, 2018 - 07:04pm PT
We know the science consensus studies suck for you and those denier blogs, Sketch, and we understand your frustration with them.

Any of you drive a vehicle that is powered by biodiesel?

Seen at the Pinnacles last weekend.


Here's a pic of it from 2011

hooblie

climber
from out where the anecdotes roam
Nov 21, 2018 - 07:50pm PT
is there a bear attraction problem associated with biodiesel?
Minerals

Social climber
The Deli
Nov 21, 2018 - 09:25pm PT
Seen at the Pinnacles last weekend.

Is the white German prolechariot yours, or just another Franciscan who frequents the same places as you?
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 22, 2018 - 05:50am PT
Minerals,I use http://www.buffalobiodiesel.com/biodiesel.php in two different vehicles.

The Times article you posted is telling for sure.

Deforestation is a huge climate problem and if we are helping fund that a world away,well that is terrible.

I know BBD uses a lot of reclaimed oils from restaurants and food service industries in general,but I now must find out about palm oil.

I have some homework to do.

I do know one thing though and that is BBD is making inroads into Hemp.
Permits for Hemp farming are now happening over here and Hemp makes good BD.

Not only that but Hemp can help fallow lands(I live on a fallow potato farm) revive and is a fantastic rotational crop.

Thanks for posting Minerals.
monolith

climber
state of being
Nov 22, 2018 - 06:15am PT
Minerals, saw it on a climbing trip to the pinnacles last sunday, then did a google search to learn more about it and found the other pic.
Minerals

Social climber
The Deli
Nov 22, 2018 - 07:38pm PT
Glad the NYT article is helpful. I found it to be quite interesting. Thanks for your biodiesel link, wilbeer.

Understood, monolith.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 23, 2018 - 09:04am PT
Minerals ,I made a phone call this morning.
It turns out BBD estimates less than 2% of their Fuel is created with palm oil.

The reason being ,Palm oil is used in some food service production facilities,beyond their control. They would prefer it not used and have turned away much of it as waste.
They ,with certainty ,do not want it for all the right reasons.

They also pointed out that we grow corn,soybeans and now even Hemp,they want to keep these markets as stable as possible.
Evidently,Palm oil is not used in restaurants over here. It is used by some commercial baking companies. It is also used by soap and shampoo makers.
So ,yes ,we use palm oil here ,but,according to BBD ,it is not sought after for reclaimation.

Afterwards ,some searching uncovered that the US uses about 2-3% of the worlds Palm Oil,not nothing ,but,far from overuse.

The good news is these are trees and proper management can be achieved.

I support that goal.

edit;Maybe the best way forward to reduce use at the end consumer position is to check with your fuel suppliers ,get informed. Research the products you use,soaps,shampoos ,how your bread is made,even penut butter and chocolates.

I am.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Nov 23, 2018 - 11:12am PT
Until the left starts taking modern nuclear power seriously, as well as embracing full-on activism toward vegetarianism, I just can't take seriously all the hand-wringing and demands for legislative/punitive "solutions."

One does NOT have to be a denier to reject the "solutions" pushed by most people on this thread and across the "do something NOW" community.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Nov 23, 2018 - 11:32am PT
Loosely related, apparently (lib)science now sees gender as lying along a spectrum. If I refuse to believe this does it make me a "science denier?" or simply a blasphemer?
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Nov 23, 2018 - 11:43am PT
^^^ +10
apogee

climber
Technically expert, safe belayer, can lead if easy
Nov 23, 2018 - 01:26pm PT
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/23/us-climate-report-warns-of-dire-changes-by-2050-1012628

Federal scientists warned in a new report Friday that changes in the climate will disrupt the economies of every region in the country in the coming years, with costs threatening to reach hundreds of billions of dollars annually by the middle of this century.

The message, echoing decades of sobering conclusions from the world's leading climate scientists, is at odds with President Donald Trump's repeated scoffing at the idea of global warming. And the administration chose to release it on Black Friday, the busiest shopping day and one of the slowest news days of the year.



By the time this sh#t hits the fan, Trump will be worm food in his grave, with decades of piss stains all over his headstone.

(Snark intended)
Lituya

Mountain climber
Nov 23, 2018 - 01:26pm PT
Moose,

http://www.differencebetween.net/language/difference-between-lying-and-laying/
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Nov 23, 2018 - 01:37pm PT
Madbolter, since when do you have more than one voice? +10???

I’m for nuclear energy.

Since when do you get to decide what the "+" refers to???

For me, it's an enthusiasm rating, not a "voice" rating. LOL

Being "for" nuclear energy is NOT the same thing as contacting your Dem congresscritter to tell them: "As long as the US burns coal for most of its energy production, 'alternative' energy, like solar, etc. will produce more greenhouse gasses than they will 'save' over their useful life. So, getting onto mostly nuclear sooner than later is TOP priority!"

And are you "for" vegetarianism? Have you put YOUR money where your mouth is?

See, until libs DO what will make a difference NOW and in the short term, and settle on policies that really WILL make a huge long-term difference, such as getting us onto nuclear energy asap, I have ZERO sympathy for their suggested punitive measures that don't actually solve the underlying problems, primary of which is that we mostly burn coal to generate electricity.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 23, 2018 - 01:47pm PT
I suggest you get a better handle on what solar and wind can do,and their amount of carbon neutrality/mitigation. Same with BD.

You sound like Rush,how many checks do you get from Big Oil?

I can get behind some nuclear.

Attacking somebody that is lowering their carbon footprint,is that the new conservatism?

Really.

Their are people who are actually trying to make a difference. It is funny that you mentioned libs and Dems,full well knowing they are the only ones willing to act on any of this.....HS.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Nov 23, 2018 - 02:25pm PT
Part of the reason nothing is getting done is that libs and leftists take perfectly good, valid science and “hysterify” it toward their political ends. Just one example, 2017 has come and gone—and Himalayan glaciers haven’t disappeared as once predicted. Predicted not by scientists, but by political bodies and dupes more interested in power than solutions to a very serious problem.
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Nov 23, 2018 - 02:38pm PT
Case in point - Climate preachers like Al Gore, and his ilk who fly in private jets.

I mean, at least take first class and spread your emissions so pound per seat-mile is moderated...

If you don't lead by example, much of the populace is not going to take the problem seriously.


" Their are people who are actually trying to make a difference. It is funny that you mentioned libs and Dems,full well knowing they are the only ones willing to act on any of this.....HS. "

You have no idea how untrue that statement is... Many of us who lead companies quietly make change that has a positive effect effect on the climate and environment. While George Clooney and Al Gore jet set around and tell everyone how to live.
Jon Beck

Trad climber
Oceanside
Nov 23, 2018 - 03:10pm PT
Until the left starts taking modern nuclear power seriously,

Do not blame the left for the nuclear debacle in this country. We left it up to private industry (GE, Westinghouse and their ilk) to implement nuclear power, because oh the horror if the government got into it (like France successfully did).

Instead of power "so cheap to produce that we will not have to meter it" we ended up with the most expensive power ever produced. I guess you could parrot the old talking point that there was too much regulation, but the evidence is that there was not enough regulation. The problem nuclear power now has is that solar is so cheap to implement and there are no unknowns. Once we figure out how to store power efficiently nuclear will be completely obsolete.

Just saw a new report that climate change will shrink the economy, thanks for doing nothing Trump. We need a leader who thinks about the future and not the bottom line of the next quarter.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Nov 23, 2018 - 03:25pm PT
Do not blame the left for the nuclear debacle in this country.

No, I do. For decades the left has run in terror from nuclear power, as well as hydro power. Only when the left becomes convinced that it's already too late does it start to admit that we are going to have to get serious about changing how the US generates electricity. NOW, decades later, finally there's a BIT of talk like, "I could get behind SOME nuclear," like "some" means a little. No, we need a SEA CHANGE in energy production, and sooner than later, and a LOT not a little.

What the real HS is is that we should have been on nuclear in place of coal/natural-gas for decades now. It does take more energy to make a solar panel than that panel will typically generate over its useful life. So, if that energy comes from burning coal, that panel is a net GHG loss. BUT, if that panel was made from nuclear energy or hydro power, then it's a net GHG gain.

And sweeping vegetarianism in the US would have a dramatic effect on GHG. So, as I said, until you libs start changing your individual lifestyles on the basis of what can make a real difference, I'm not sympathetic AT ALL with punitive measures!

ALL of you should become vegetarians, and excuses on that point are all hollow. Don't propose to penalize me or my company for energy usage, the production of which I have ZERO direct control over, while you support the cattle industry, which does heinous direct damage as well as mows down massive acreage of rain forest each and every day to make room for more cattle ranching.

Vote with your OWN consumption before you penalize others in sweeping fashion. And GET to your congresscritter regarding nuclear energy. And you'll quickly find that it's your DEM congresscritters that are most resistant to the idea.

And, while you're at it, how about a BLUE WAVE of news articles condemning leftists from Gore to Oprah to movie stars to... well, you get the picture. These supposed libs are libs in name only. They are mega-consumers, and they are ALSO the 1% you claim to decry. Oprah by herself could solve the homeless problem in Kalifornia, if only she put HER lib money where her lib mouth is. But she's all about: "I got mine, now let's tax the middle class to solve these problems." Jim Carrey, same way. ALL of 'em.

Liberal hypocrisy! Put your OWN lifestyle where your mouth is first!

Edit:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516301379

By contrast, one Dutch study says that we're about at "break even" globally, but that study contemplates, well, globally. In the USA, where our energy is mostly fossil-fuel generated, solar is not near "break even." So, we must think about how WE in the USA prioritize various energy sources. Nuclear is FAR from "obsolete."
Lituya

Mountain climber
Nov 23, 2018 - 03:36pm PT
I can get behind some nuclear.
We already have some nuclear. How much more could you get behind? Sorry, but solar and wind are weaksauce.

Their are people who are actually trying to make a difference.
There.
Bushman

climber
The state of quantum flux
Nov 23, 2018 - 03:41pm PT
Nobody ever brings up the chief cause and solution for climate change because, perish the thought...there’s too many people and the solution is to stop having more than 0-2 kids per family. Nobody wants to be told to curb their reproductive enthusiasm or be asked to do it, lest it piss a lot of folks off.

I’m guessing some here will be angry I brought it up. Probably the worst biblical verse not to be discarded by the modern world was, “be fruitful and multiply!” to bad the idea wasn’t confined to just basic math.
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Nov 23, 2018 - 03:54pm PT
^^^ 100% this.

Hell, my wife get's pissed when I tell her I don't want any more kids.

Just think if I used climate change as the primary reason...
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 23, 2018 - 04:13pm PT
We will never agree.

Yeah solar panels take a little to produce ,they are on less than 10% of American roofs. Yes they take raw materials to produce ,all of them completely recyclable.

You know what is on 100% of roofs in America?

Roofing material ,close to 60% of it FF ‘s ,the balance metal or earthen.

We need roofs to keep the water out,most are not recyclable,this alone could keep the FF industry running ,by its own.

We need energy as well,but ,your oil party has made it political.

Never mind that roofing has no return and several costs before it’s demise.

We need to keep the rain out.

We do not need energy independence,hence the oil party.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 23, 2018 - 04:18pm PT
Weak sauce ,My ass, I am in the renewable business.

Stockholders posing as Capitalist,as long as it all works for them.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 23, 2018 - 04:29pm PT
There.
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Nov 23, 2018 - 04:32pm PT
Where?
monolith

climber
state of being
Nov 23, 2018 - 07:44pm PT
https://www.canadiangeographic.ca/article/previously-stable-population-polar-bears-now-decline-study-finds
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 23, 2018 - 07:48pm PT
deniya wrote: "Part of the reason nothing is getting done is that libs and leftists take perfectly good, valid science and “hysterify” it toward their political ends. Just one example, 2017 has come and gone—and Himalayan glaciers haven’t disappeared as once predicted. Predicted not by scientists, but by political bodies and dupes more interested in power than solutions to a very serious problem."

Yet another example of DENIAL.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 23, 2018 - 07:57pm PT
Madbolter found on some denier blog a reference to one study that supports his biases, and went on to make the wildly wrong claim that solar in the USA "isn't near break even."

In the first place that study was for Germany and Switzerland, which have less solar available than most of the USA.

More refutation of that study.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516307066
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 23, 2018 - 08:16pm PT
As far as nuclear,
it's the power industry that is running away from it due to its never ending high costs, despite 50 years of subsidies.
San Onofre was closed early in 2012-2013 due to the incompetence of SCE, and their wish to switch to other sources. This was a $10 billion plant that they refused to pay $600 million to fix the steam generator.

And now PG&E has aborted the plan to extend Diablo Canyon to 2045, and now will close it in 2024-2025.

So the power industry choice is to close operational nuclear plants, which is the opposite of thinking that building new ones is a good idea.

https://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-diablo-nukes-20160623-snap-story.html
Lituya

Mountain climber
Nov 23, 2018 - 08:35pm PT
Yet another example of DENIAL.

Splater, since you know full and well I agree with the majority of climate scientists, and that something needs to be done, I'm left to assume I failed some religious purity test of yours. The truth is, your orthodoxy is part of what's standing in the way of real solutions. (Plus the fact you're likely a bonafide nutjob.)
TLP

climber
Nov 23, 2018 - 08:40pm PT
Mad, it is a convenient excuse to decline to do something just because there's 1 million, or even just one hypocrite out there...and those you agree with politically are outrageously hypocritical at times too. So just drop that irrelevant bit.

This forum had a huge thread for a while with much debating of climate change science and debunking of every criticism until a few of the deniers finally admitted that the problem they had with the science was that they didn't like some proposed remedial actions and thought they were politically motivated. That's a way different method of evaluating scientific validity than I learned in school and on the job.

It's odd to be debating the advisability of nuclear power when we have a regime that can't even support closing coal plants in favor of natural gas, which right there is a carbon emissions benefit. And which reverses vehicle mileage standards that are beneficial in every possible way including foreign trade. (The rest of the world is not so short-sighted, or stupid whichever it is, as to fail to see the virtue in higher mileage vehicles. If manufacturing and selling high-value products overseas is desirable, an incentive to make those products more competitive ought to be a good idea, no?)

Right away that reliability, or a Plan B in case of failure, is better assured, and that the subject of waste transport and disposal is adequately addressed, you'd see a lot of support (from myself included) for nuclear power generation. This is exactly the problem with petroleum-based transportation fuels: never dealt with the waste (CO2 etc).

I'm very skeptical that a solar panel fails to generate the energy it takes to fabricate it over a (very long) service lifetime, but if you have a link to a genuinely objective analysis, post it up and let's see. Same with wind. But I get the point, there's no totally free lunch, let's just see what it costs.

Hydropower is no solution, there aren't really good sites for new dams even if we wanted to go that way. Some of the ones we have are going to run into water supply problems pretty soon.

Where I'm going with this is, there's no easy remedy. But as long as the discussion of solutions is only political sniping, we are indeed totally screwed and just need to lament the demise of the planet as we know it. I think it's a lot better idea to all acknowledge there's a serious problem and start implementing some solutions, even though they'll initially be very imperfect and will only really help in combination, not just one holy grail type idea which doesn't exist.

Unfortunately, greed and power trips are making it awfully difficult even to get to step 1. That's really bad.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Nov 23, 2018 - 08:49pm PT
It's odd to be debating the advisability of nuclear power when we have a regime that can't even support closing coal plants in favor of natural gas, which right there is a carbon emissions benefit.

Maybe this is why?

https://earthjustice.org/news/press/2018/it-s-the-end-of-the-line-for-gas-pipeline-3602-in-san-diego
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 23, 2018 - 09:47pm PT
By the way your ad hominen insults only illustrate your own shortcomings.

"what's standing in the way of real solutions."

Go ahead and propose something feasible then. You keep claiming to want to do something about global warming and GHGs, but most of your posts on this thread are just sniping about boogiemen from the left and your strawmen silliness. Glaciers all over the world are shrinking as predicted. Why try to claim otherwise if you are on the "same page?"

As written, your last suggestion to control GHGs does not mention doing much until 2040-2050, and even then has no limit on air travel (a luxury).
We need to start major policy changes now. We have already put off most action for ~40 years. Delaying even further will result in twice as much warming, which means perhaps 10 times the impact to society. Putting a rising price on carbon (revenue neutral) is by far the simplest incentive. It automatically gets people to immediately start using less fossil fuels for everything, including home heat, cars, gasoline based hobbies, airplanes, etc. You like to complain about government ("a carbon tax simply puts govt into bed with producers" according to you). I have no idea what that means. A revenue neutral carbon fee does not grow the government. However, mandates will. Phased in mandates can help but they have many costs and inefficiencies and often result in government bureaucracy to micromanage, gaming, loopholes, waste and abuse. A ban on new internal combustion engines does not reduce the existing ~120 million of them on the road, and in fact just makes the old ones more valuable. A tax on fuel lets people make their own choices.


Lituya Mountain climber
...no coal plants operating after 2050 and, say, no new internal combustion engines produced after 2040 (except aviation turbines), the market would find a way to make it happen. Volvo is already on the path.

Of course, govt would have to quickly permit the alternatives--new dams, nuclear plants, wind, solar, tidal projects. Replacing dense carbon energy won't be free.
...
TLP, the reason I excepted aviation is that there is no conceived alternative for the status quo re power and speed. Nitrogen-based fertilizer is another big one with huge inputs that can't be found elsewhere.


Splater climber Grey Matter
Nov 3, 2018 - 08:51pm PT

Unless you disincentive it, people will keep the old ones running for another 70 years, same as Cuba.


Lituya Mountain climber
The disincentive would likely be baked into the macro-economics of a petrol industry now a shadow of its former self. Gasoline would be expensive and scarce. IC engine cars would be a hobby.

Splater
What happened to your silly claims that expensive gas is a bad thing?
If it gets expensive due to an RNCF you say it's bad.
But if it's expensive due to these vague shadow bakings and magical hobbys, that is a good thing.

Lituya
Again, for your benefit, Splater, a carbon tax simply puts govt into bed with producers. Not sure why you're having so much difficulty with this. In any event, not sure why you're sniping; we're basically on the same side re thread topic, right?
TLP

climber
Nov 23, 2018 - 10:04pm PT
Lituya, I think we agree on a lot of points. The bit about the California gas pipeline is a red herring. It's trying to turn every aspect of the whole discussion into totally black or white. In a place where it's feasible to go without fossil fuels due to abundant solar and wind, that's a good idea. Somewhere that's not so feasible, at least switching off coal is sensible. Not to mention the other air quality issues, and the problem of ash (another one of those waste problems not resolved in the slightest at present, it's just accumulating in spots vulnerable to flooding, inadequate containment, etc.), and the huge environmental and human damages from the coal mining itself.

My take is, doing anything effective to reduce the rate of climate change is going to take at least a little of just about everything that anyone is suggesting. And none of it is without consequences, like a lot of things. Just do the environmental and financial accounting of the real situation and start to figure out a few things to do better rather than worse. Not trying to snipe at anyone, it's time to get pragmatic.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Nov 23, 2018 - 10:06pm PT
Go ahead and propose something feasible then. You keep claiming to want to do something about global warming and GHGs, but most of your posts on this thread are just sniping about boogiemen from the left and your strawmen silliness. Glaciers all over the world are shrinking as predicted. Why try to claim otherwise if you are on the "same page?"

http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=2899333&msg=3120637#msg3120637

Splater,

You need to do more research before you spout.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Nov 23, 2018 - 10:10pm PT
TLP,

If only it was, in fact, a red herring. In addition to natural gas, so-called environmental groups have litigated hundreds, if not thousands of clean and/or alternative energy projects from wind turbines to nuclear to hydro to solar. Surely you know this is true. How are we going to turn off the coal and oil with these legal obstacles standing in the way? A grand bargain will, at some point, have to be made.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 23, 2018 - 10:56pm PT
I already saw your earlier interesting post with the pics of the Olympics glaciers. Thanks for posting that.

Unfortunately it seems the typical nature of internet forums is to speak up more when we disagree that when we agree. Leading to negativity.

For instance your post today invented a new strawman argument about claims that glaciers in the Himalaya would disappear in one year.
All claims I can see discuss that they might mostly disappear by 2100, in the worst trumpian case.
https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS766US784&q=himalayan+glaciers+shrinking&spell=1&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjLr_XGtOzeAhVOo1kKHfp2D_oQBQgrKAA&biw=1280&bih=671

Is this the source of your complaint?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/may/27/most-glaciers-in-mount-everest-area-will-disappear-with-climate-change-study

Seems valid enough to me,
but I'm sure the denialist blogs can find a typo somewhere.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Nov 23, 2018 - 11:32pm PT
An earlier BBC report claimed 2017--but even 2035 was a gross error. By the IPCC, even!

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/jan/20/ipcc-himalayan-glaciers-mistake

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8468358.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8387737.stm
"In its 2007 report, the Nobel Prize-winning Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said: "Glaciers in the Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate."


My first complaint is with media and political hyperbole usurping good science. My second is with the cultivation of a political and social climate that slams the door on falsifiability.

August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Nov 24, 2018 - 12:37pm PT
Part of the reason nothing is getting done is that libs and leftists take perfectly good, valid science and “hysterify” it toward their political ends. Just one example, 2017 has come and gone—and Himalayan glaciers haven’t disappeared as once predicted. Predicted not by scientists, but by political bodies and dupes more interested in power than solutions to a very serious problem.

Yea, glaciers all around the world are getting bigger, not shrinking. The amount of summer sea ice in the arctic has never been bigger.

Where are all those bigger hurricanes that the climate hysterics kept promising?

And isn't it really funny that they kept saying California fire season would keep getting worse? Rolling on the floor laughing my head off over that one. I'm really surprised the chicken little climate conspiracy nuts still have the gall to show their faces.

As Trump says:

SAD.
monolith

climber
state of being
Nov 24, 2018 - 12:58pm PT
You can read all about the Himalayan error here. Basically, a non-peer-reviewed section was left in the report, which is against policy. An ipcc reviewer flagged it, but it didn't get corrected.

https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/02/anatomy-of-ipccs-himalayan-glacier-year-2035-mess/

David Saltz, an IPCC reviewer, spotted the first two errors before publication (as discussed below), but they were not corrected.
TLP

climber
Nov 24, 2018 - 01:00pm PT
A grand bargain will, at some point, have to be made.
Total agreement on that, more like a few grand ones and 1000 smaller ones. I also agree that it is folly to challenge every energy project because there's some type of environmental damage from it and wish people would stop doing it. You are absolutely right, waaay too much of that has happened. But I can't help it that there are people I agree with in some respects who are fools in others, and I don't rely on that to do nothing until every other person on the planet is carbon neutral.

I don't think it's hysteria to say that climate change is happening, quickly, and is going to cost us and everyone else a lot of money. The estimates of timeline for loss of glaciers were calculated as best as could be done at the time, who cares what the exact date is, and whether that's loss of 50% of the ice, or 80%, or all of it. It's going to be a huge problem for 1 billion people. It would make sense to try to do something about it, and it will take a while to turn the battleship.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Nov 24, 2018 - 03:13pm PT
Part of the reason why nothing gets done, nor will get done, is exemplified by this very thread.

I don't give a rat's left testicle HOW we get off of fossil fuels. If you favor solar, go for it. Do you have solar on YOUR house yet? But I've been saying for decades, long before the climate change fervor, that the US must get off of fossil fuels, because it's a matter of national security. Just one of countless implications is: Cut Israel loose and get out of the Middle East entirely. Etc., etc.

I seriously don't care HOW it's done, but it should have been done LONG before climate change was on anybody's radar.

Problem is US! WE can't do anything but bicker, and while we're bickering, the mega-corps win, then win again.

My attitude is this: NOTHING that is non-combustion is off the table. France has made nuclear work and in cost-effective fashion. Solar is getting more efficient by the year. Maybe this very year it's tipped into positive efficiency in the USA (although "positive efficiency" is a pretty narrow band of installations, depending on specific geography). Hydro is not off the table for me. NOTHING that can fit into a non-fossil-fuel puzzle is off the table. And that's because what matters to me, and has for decades, is to GET OFF FOSSIL FUEL to the greatest extent possible as soon as possible!

But we do need to focus on SOLUTIONS rather than believe that solutions will emerge if you punish people enough. And when a thread like this amounts to yet more bickering about what is better or best in the way of solutions, I just get tired of it.

And why I focus on LIBERAL hypocrisy is that it is the libs that have taken this up as a cause, so it is LIBS that should be MOST interested in finding common ground, building bridges, seeking compromises, and having a "nothing is off the table" attitude. Yet this very thread reveals that libs are MUCH more interested in "being right" than in working together with "deniers" to achieve genuine solutions.

How can you work together with "deniers"? Simple. Find and then magnify that common ground that can motivate change apart from agreement about cause or even problem! There are countless reasons that even "deniers" can get behind the goal of getting off of fossil fuels. That's the discussion to have.

But no. Being "right" trumps all other considerations. Nit-pick this or that study. Box and package it as coming from a "denier site," even though it's solid research and makes a point that's been widely known for decades. Then just dismiss it (and the messenger) while completely missing the overarching point and STILL not offering any solution other than, "Tax the hell out of 'em until they stop."

BS!

Meanwhile, the mega-corps have a "business as usual" perspective, and you will NEVER succeed in punishing THEM. Proposed punishments always "trickle down" to the people least able to pay. For those of you that lived in the Inland Empire of SoCal, just remember Kaiser Steel BITD.

This is not about "finding the ONE best solution and then piling onto it." Success means jumping NOW on ALL the non-fossil solutions and working them together, because collectively a bit of this and a bit of that is better than not being able to "settle on" what is "ultimately best." You are NEVER going to get that level of agreement!

Can't cope with a dam? BS! How about a few more alongside other approaches? Don't like nuclear? BS! Let's put a bunch of modern reactors up, get 'em online asap, and cut coal AND natural gas dependency that much while we move forward on multiple fronts simultaneously.

I'm saying that if your priority is driven by a sense of CRISIS, like you libs CLAIM it is, then you had better start making bunches of compromises RIGHT NOW, and embrace everybody from whatever side of the aisle that can be motivated by ANY means to support dramatic change NOW. IF your prophesies come true, then it will be hollow comfort to then say, "See! I was right! Damn those denier conservatives!"

To me the hypocrisy is like Jim Carrey bagging on "conservatives" for "doing nothing" about the homeless problem, when that prick is wealthy enough to make a HUGE dent in the problem in, say, SF if he only would. Oprah could put a huge dent in the problem nationally.

But mega-bucks libs do NOT put their money where their mouth is. Instead, they have the "I got mine, now tax the middle class for the cause I believe in." Carrey could give away 90% of his money (both accumulated and ongoing), and he would still live a lavish lifestyle. Oprah could give away 99%. So, wealthy libs, IF one of your hobby horses really is the homeless problem, then POUR your OWN money into it before you so glibly proposing raising taxes yet more.

And that attitude is directly related to the climate change issue.

Look, it's one thing for a denier to say, "I'm not convinced, so, of course I'm going to eat as much steak as I want as often as I want." It's another thing for a lib, who CLAIMS to be motivated by science, who CLAIMS to care about the scientific studies regarding the causes of climate change, and who can't deny that the meat industry is a significant contributor, and yet that same lib won't even consider becoming a vegetarian. Like right now. Again and again it comes down to putting your money (and diet) where your mouth is.

If you smoke and/or eat meat, then you are polluting our world in significant and entirely unnecessary ways! You could dump those polluting practices tomorrow. But when you want cap and trade and other punitive measures BEFORE you have done EVERYTHING that you can personally do, you are a hypocrite, and I have no sympathy for your (supposed) position. And if you can't motivate ME, then you've got a bigger problem than you realize, because I've been motivated on the GHG issue LONG before global warming was a thing.

What I see is that most libs, just like Carrey, want "something done," but it shouldn't affect them. So, the "solutions" always involve affecting somebody else's lifestyle and pocketbook.

And, yes, the final hypocrisy that must be mentioned, is that LIBERALS cherry-pick their "science" in ways that I don't see as flagrantly from conservatives (although I pretty much hate both sides of the aisle).

You don't get to rest on "consensus" regarding climate change and simultaneously defy "consensus" regarding gender. You lose more credibility than you seem to realize to try to embrace both. So, you open the door WIDE for "deniers" of BOTH of your "takes" on "science," to say, "They are clearly they are not intellectually honest about gender. So, this climate bit is probably akin to that."

YOU are "the side" that wants sweeping changes. So, it falls to YOU to provide a road-map forward that makes intuitive sense, even for those who question "your science." And that road-map CAN be produced, and it CAN be compelling. This thread ain't an example of it!
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 24, 2018 - 03:21pm PT
But we do need to focus on SOLUTIONS rather than believe that solutions will emerge if you punish people enough. And when a thread like this amounts to yet more bickering about what is better or best in the way of solutions, I just get tired of it.

And why I focus on LIBERAL hypocrisy is that it is the libs that have taken this up as a cause, so it is LIBS that should be MOST interested in finding common ground, building bridges, seeking compromises, and having a "nothing is off the table" attitude.

oh boy... you really know how to set the table for cooperation and consensus and bipartisan progress, don't you.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 24, 2018 - 04:01pm PT
How true Ed.

Comes on here berating liberals for doing anything,like we profess this is the answer ,then walks it back.

What you have said about hypocrisy and wealthy libs doing this or that does not apply to all here or anywhere. Could we generalize a bit more.

Sounds like you did some research on solar. Good. Now quit badmouthing a part of mine and a lot of others livelihood.

You may be right about eating meat in general. I had my first steak of the year Thanksgiving.

It was grass fed beef ,raised four miles away from my house,I eat less than a burger a month from the same farm.

Not a vegetarian,but ,buy local.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 24, 2018 - 04:35pm PT
California meets greenhouse gas reduction goal years early

California greenhouse gas emissions fell below 1990 levels, meeting an early target years ahead of schedule and putting the state well on its way toward reaching long-term goals to fight climate change, officials said Wednesday...

California plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 40% by 2030

"...California’s emissions cap-and-trade program, launched in 2013, is one of the major policies the state is using to lower its greenhouse gas emissions. In 2015, CARB recommended tightening the program, which would reduce the amount of available emissions credits. Other recommendations from CARB include new regulations that would affect petroleum refinery emissions and double energy efficiency savings by 2030, for example.

Under the current cap-and-trade program, affected emissions sources include electric generators, industrial facilities, and oil and natural gas distributors. Companies in the compliance program have the option to either purchase allowances or directly reduce their emissions. Companies also have the option to finance carbon offset credits, which are earned under a separate program for voluntary projects that lower overall GHG emissions..."
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 24, 2018 - 04:42pm PT
As usual the false rants of MB prove who is interested in nit picking in order to stop reasonable policy progress. First the kook rage against rich Democrats which makes no sense in a capitalist society. And now you fail to see the obvious, that it is Right wingers have elected federal politicians to block almost all climate progress for the last 30 years. And now the right has elected the most anti-science president ever.
It is ludicrous to blame the Democrats.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 24, 2018 - 04:53pm PT
Did you know that John Anderson, a conservative from the midwest, was one of the first to propose a revenue neutral gas tax, way back in 1980?

"Anderson also was criticized for his “50-50 plan.” With America’s oil crisis of the 1970s ongoing, Anderson proposed a 50-cent-per-gallon gasoline tax to discourage consumption. The gas tax would be more than offset by his proposed 50% cut in Social Security taxes, he argued. But audiences tended to hear the plan’s first part—the tax—and shut him out before he could pitch the second."

https://www.latimes.com/local/obituaries/la-me-john-anderson-2050-story.html
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 24, 2018 - 07:09pm PT
“It is ludicrous to blame the Democrats “.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Nov 25, 2018 - 10:35am PT
As usual the false rants of MB prove who is interested in nit picking in order to stop reasonable policy progress.

Nothing false or rant about what I wrote. You LIBS are the ones that believe it's CRISIS to not "do something NOW," so YOU are the ones who should be most reasonable, most willing to make concessions, most willing to even embrace the lunacy of deniers if that can help you find common ground (like a mutual desire to get off of fossil fuels).

But, like Ed just above, we see the same responses again and again: Better to be "right" in your own minds than to ACTUALLY embrace existing solutions that would work in both the short and long term.

And if your "reasonable policy progress" means punitive measures, then you should not be a SHRED surprised when you find that more than half of this nation correctly wants no part of your "policy progress."

We want energy solutions, not trickle-down punishments that will have no effect on the ones actually resisting sweeping changes in energy policy.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 25, 2018 - 11:18am PT
We want energy solutions, not trickle-down punishments that will have no effect on the ones actually resisting sweeping changes in energy policy.

energy solutions is a big idea, and these "solutions" require considerable investment.

Hydro-electric power uses a resource, the flow of water in river systems, which competes directly with other resources, water use, ecology maintenance, etc. The government is in the position to not only regulate these resources uses, but also to provide funding, both directly for the projects and to indemnify the utility operating the facilities to exploit the resource. And the government is able to do this with the revenues it raises, which mean that "the people" have a say in what is done.

In California, as you know, there are those who advocate for developing more reservoirs for exploiting agriculture, here the citizens of California are asked to support expensive infrastructure benefitting a largely private industry, agribusiness, which does not have the means to undertake those projects privately.

As for nuclear energy, the public demand for "safe" energy drives both the regulatory environment and the role of the government to insure the public is "made whole" in the event of an accident.

The attempt to correctly price the cost of production of GHGs is one way to affect the nature of energy production. It might sound punitive, but it is akin to regulations prohibiting you from disposing of human waste improperly, you can't just dump it on your backyard, or in a leach field created in an urban/suburban area, or directly into a body of water wherever you are (at least at the moment).

How you could you argue that the consequence of doing so should not be punitive is difficult to fathom.

Increasing the cost of GHG generating energy makes other energy production economical, albeit with an increase in energy costs. But the current cost of using GHG generating energy does not include the cost of climate change, which it is directly responsible for.

As far as GHGs, it is the realization that the atmosphere is a limited resource (at least as far as disposing exhaust gases from human energy production) that should require the "correct" costing of doing so.

In so doing, the costs of those things that result in higher GHG emission will cost more, and you can choose to spend the money or not, seeking lower cost alternatives. Driving an SUV is possible, as long as you pay the cost of doing so. There is no "inalienable" right that protects the operating costs. Same for beef... and any number of other modern conveniences.

Lituya

Mountain climber
Nov 25, 2018 - 11:27am PT
MB, trying to deprogram cult is never easy and, here, probably a wasted effort. As you've seen, they won't even engage in a civil manner with people who agree with them meta level.

Liberals are usually pretty squishy, but when it comes to climate change they seem to become startlingly doctrinaire. This topic, and the zealotry associated with it, has led me to conclude that modern liberalism is barely distinguishable from a religious cult.







madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Nov 25, 2018 - 11:37am PT
Ed, nobody is denying the need for governments (at all levels) to be fundamentally involved. Your post was lots of words without saying anything perspicuous.

The obvious problem with punitive measures is that the offenders are not the ones doing the paying. Instead, these measures penalize the people least able to afford it. The average person has NO choice about where their wall-power comes from, and the vast majority cannot afford their own solar system (about $25k for my house). Moreover, only a quite small swath of the US enjoys enough reliable sun to make solar an even marginally cost-effect solution on an individual basis.

Wind? Yeah, good luck with that. Almost nobody can legally erect their own wind-turbine towers. And, even more than solar, most people do not live in a region with enough reliable wind for a turbine to even begin to be effective.

So, yeah, go ahead and penalize all you want, but all that's going to happen is that the average person is going to "pay more at the pump" for something that THEY did not decide, have little/no power to decide now, and that emerges primarily from policy decisions in Washington.

This whole thing is going to be decided in Washington, and it's going to change "your" way if and only if Congresscritters are TOLD in no uncertain terms that the USA must be essentially off of fossil fuel within a decade. That can be done, and, if the present science is to be believed, MUST be done even sooner than that. But it's going to take an almost entirely united front on the part of voters, which means a level of consensus that this thread (and even your own post) indicates is not possible.

So, back to your regularly-scheduled and fruitless hand-wringing.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Nov 25, 2018 - 11:41am PT
The attempt to correctly price the cost of production of GHGs is one way to affect the nature of energy production. It might sound punitive, but it is akin to regulations prohibiting you from disposing of human waste improperly, you can't just dump it on your backyard, or in a leach field created in an urban/suburban area, or directly into a body of water wherever you are (at least at the moment).

This is a bit of a straw-man. The topic is already addressed and regulations accepted by society going as far back as Smith's smoke nuisance thesis. What you're talking about are new fees and regulations that are only tangentially related to energy production.

Ironically, my suggestion that government mandate a complete and orderly phase-out of IC engines and coal is probably to the left of you. Creating an artificial pricing scheme with government at the helm is not, in my view, a prescription for a cure. Proof, take a look at your state government's taxes on cigarettes--a product that kills 480,000 Americans every year, and ought to be banned outright. Why hasn't it been? Because government likes the revenue.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Nov 25, 2018 - 11:41am PT
This topic, and the zealotry associated with it, has led me to conclude that modern liberalism is barely distinguishable from a religious cult.

I more and more suspect that you are correct. That troubles me, because I really try to avoid boxing and packaging people and their beliefs.

But the liberal cherry-picking of science has become striking. As you rightly noted upstream, the whole gender bit is an epic credibility hit!

I say, tongue in cheek: Hey, libs, just IDENTIFY as being part of a nation that is off of fossil fuels, and that MAKES it reality, evidence to the contrary be damned. Libs should be the FIRST to say, "Hey, how you IDENTIFY is irrelevant if it doesn't cohere with the empirical facts."
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 25, 2018 - 12:28pm PT
Ironically, my suggestion that government mandate a complete and orderly phase-out of IC engines and coal is probably to the left of you.

no, I agree with both of those things... I don't know how you do it in an "orderly" fashion, it is a hugely disruptive technology change.

as far as "hand wringing" my last 7 years of research have been in exploring a major possible alternative energy source, fusion, what have you been doing? I'm not sure why the criticism of my idea, that is, the atmosphere is finite and changing is already costing us... that is not tangential, that is for real, and so costing that in the use of GHG use doesn't seem at all unreasonable.

I also think that the representation of using the atmosphere as a sewer is apt.

There is a cost to all of us, and it is possible that without good policies the less economically fortunate will be disproportionally hit... but that is a policy issue and perhaps represents an event greater divergence in political opinion as to how to address it. What will happen to this same population as the climate changes?
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Nov 25, 2018 - 12:39pm PT
So Litulya, cigarettes outlawed?

You believe in the nanny state?
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Nov 25, 2018 - 02:03pm PT
no, I agree with both of those things... I don't know how you do it in an "orderly" fashion, it is a hugely disruptive technology change.

Yeah, I guess that it's beyond the purview of science to give us political philosophy or even mere political insights. Point taken, and related to one of your points to follow next....

as far as "hand wringing" my last 7 years of research have been in exploring a major possible alternative energy source, fusion, what have you been doing?

LOL.... to my point just above. Science doesn't have all (or even most of) the answers, nor can it. See, political philosophy does matter, so that we proceed in principled fashion rather than just reactively.

Ed, you are in a unique position that does not reflect the "doing" of the average person on ANY level. So, even you should admit what a cheap shot your last paragraph was. And cheap shots just like that are why "we the people" cannot get together against the mega-corps that rule us. Keep it up, then you can have all the "superior high ground" of "told you so" when the SHTF and you had not enough allies with which to "do something."

Personally, I'm a life-long vegetarian, which actually is quite "disruptive" in its own right. Are YOU? Since you are not, why not? See, it's NOT a cheap shot to INSIST that libs put their own lifestyle where their mouths are.

Your fusion research may SOMEDAY provide benefits, probably not. But meanwhile, you CAN and should become a vegetarian and thereby do YOUR personal part to put the meat industry out of business, thereby slowing and then halting rain forest destruction, among many other things. YOU can do that right now, as can EVERY lib. And if we all did (healthier, cheaper, and better), we would PERSONALLY have a significant effect WHILE we work on other things as well. So, can I count on YOU to become a vegetarian immediately? If not, why not?

Is YOUR home solar? If not, why not? In short, I'll turn that cheap shot question of yours back at you. What PRACTICALY, NOW things are YOU doing to put your money where your mouth is? And, BTW, if you even think it: owning a Prius is a JOKE as long as we're fueling it with COAL!

I'm not sure why the criticism of my idea, that is, the atmosphere is finite and changing is already costing us... that is not tangential, that is for real, and so costing that in the use of GHG use doesn't seem at all unreasonable.

Well, because you've said a mouthful, much of which is crap!

Nobody disputes that the atmosphere is finite. But regarding the "cost," NOBODY has EVER produced anything resembling a "cost model" to which you blithely refer as if it's established fact (I've looked at about a dozen attempts). And you've never responded in the slightest to the FACT that, like Kaiser Steel BITD, the polluters have always just passed the costs along to consumers.

I also think that the representation of using the atmosphere as a sewer is apt.

Multiple reasons why not. A short and non-exhaustive list:

* Dumping sewage is NOT a necessity, and there are countless and readily available alternatives. By stark contrast, and as you admit in your own post, changing out energy sources is a HUGE and very disruptive process. A coal-fired electric company CAN legitimately say, "We don't have a good alternative at this moment. Help us get onto a good alternative, and we'll happily do it. Until then, we have NO alternative but to 'dump,' as you say."

* Dumping sewage is RIDICULOUSLY irresponsible, when it's trivial to create/maintain water reclamation plants. A company that dumps sewage is literally flipping society the middle finger. By stark contrast, coal-fired electricity is NOT flipping the middle finger at anybody. So, punishment is appropriate in the first case but not the latter.

* Dumping sewage is local and done in defiance of governmental policy. By stark contrast, coal-burning electrical plants are mainstream and the result OF governmental policy. Why penalize entire industries for doing what WE told them to do and are not financing them to do otherwise?

* Finally, but not exhaustively, it is RIDICULOUS to penalize industries that have NO options but to pass along the penalties to the very people that have the least options and the least capacity to pay. This is not like Kaiser Steel that CHOOSES to keep polluting, pay the fines, raise the cost of steel to compensate, and intentionally keeps doing business as usual because it feels NO pain of the fines and the end-consumer doesn't feel the pain of the fines (distributed as they are by the time an additional penny-per-pound of steel is realized). Cap and Trade, by contrast, is a mode of penalization that PRETENDS that costs can be understood and fairly assessed, and where the "fines" will indeed and immediately be FELT by consumers who have no good options.

There is a cost to all of us,

And neither you nor anybody else has ANY, and I mean ANY, idea what that is! As just one example, you libs love to congregate in huge cities along the coastlines, so you see "costs" everywhere you look. But the rest of us see your "costs" as just consequences of your lifestyle choices, and we question why we SHOULD pay for YOUR lifestyle choices. If the seas rise, then YOU can buy a new house inland. Explain what's wrong with that thinking. We employ it in countless other settings. And, unlike a fire, for example, you have LOTS of lead time to move your azz elsewhere! In short, you have NO rigorous "cost model." Just speculations, and ALL build in such patently ridiculous presumptions that the bias is quite obviously built-in.

and it is possible that without good policies the less economically fortunate will be disproportionally hit...

Hmmm... somehow that's a DEAL-KILLER when it comes to health-insurance, but it's just okey-dokey when it comes to energy!?! What gives? What PRINCIPLES do you employ to decide when "the poor are gonna get screwed" vs. when "the poor are NOT gonna get screwed"?

but that is a policy issue and perhaps represents an event greater divergence in political opinion as to how to address it.

Yeah, and what is science going to contribute to answering THAT question? What scientific experiments are going to give us the light?

Part of what "I'm doing" is to look at the underlying political philosophy issues that inform possible answers to such questions. And I can tell you from long research that your "stick" approach is flat-out doomed. Oh, I guess I should say, unless you are seeking a Minority Report sort of society.

What will happen to this same population as the climate changes?

Well, that's back to the PRESUMPTION that climate change is all or even mostly bad. And PRESUMPTION it is!

In actual fact, the hotter times of Earth's history have been GREAT from a speciation point of view. WE don't THINK that WE are going to like it, with our limited vision and anthropocentric perspective. But so what? Some people are going to move. Some deserts are going to get much worse, and some non-arable land will become arable. The FACT is that science can't yet reliable predict the local weather, and it SURE cannot predict the subtle and pervasive socio-economic effects of climate change!

So, here's the news flash for you: Some people are going to suffer. Others will do GREAT! Some societies will suffer. Others will do GREAT! Some species will suffer. MOST will do GREAT, and likely there will be more species as a result.

Life goes on, and life finds a way. As a scientist, you should exhibit a bit more perspective. And, yeah, keep working on fusion. IF it ever works for us, it will be GREAT! If not, at least you tried. And that's something.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 25, 2018 - 02:34pm PT
you always go off mb

I am not a total vegetarian, but enough that people ask me all the time, "are you a vegetarian," when we go out to eat...

very little food wasted at our house too, and mostly in-season ingredients that are locally grown. There are certainly variations, but there is the awareness...

is my home solar? no, why? because we have reduced our energy use to a very low level, by insulating mostly, replacing single-pane windows, etc... our monthly energy bill is far below the average in our area. we don't suffer for it either, the home is warm in the winter, cool in the summer.

Dumping sewage is NOT a necessity... go a month without flushing or running water down the drain and report back.

Dumping sewage is RIDICULOUSLY irresponsible... as is dumping GHGs into the atmosphere, isn't the policy of our POTUS to flip off the rest of the world?

Dumping sewage is local and done in defiance of governmental policy... sure, and it seems that California is trying to reduce GHG emission...

Finally, but not exhaustively, it is RIDICULOUS to penalize industries that have NO options but to pass along the penalties to the very people that have the least options and the least capacity to pay.

most power utilities have a huge amount of public oversight, so it isn't at all like private industry. Further, whether or not this will make energy cost more, energy should cost more to account for the "externalities," foremost of which is climate change (but also health issues in and around the coal fired plants). Policy would include ways to alleviate these costs on those who have the fewest resources.

And neither you nor anybody else has ANY, and I mean ANY, idea what that is!

which is why a tax on GHG emission (a carbon tax) is such a good way to go, it doesn't presume what the costs are in detail, the market costs would all reflect the emission of GHGs, and we could then tell just what the costs are, leaving the market "free" and allowing people to choose.

I didn't say the poor would get screwed, revenues for GHG taxes could be used in a revenue neutral manner that was progressive.

Your take on natural history of life on Earth is an interesting opinion, and totally irrelevant. Humans are causing this recent extinction event, and changing the climate dramatically, and we know we are doing it, how we are doing it, and how long it will take to do it.

We don't have to do it.

wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 25, 2018 - 02:43pm PT
“Is your home solar?”

Yes ,have been for years.


I burn no FF’s,none at all and power my vehicles and cooktop with BD.

I am still building my house and the septic system is going in.

I am still living on gravel until the geothermal system with another solar array to power it are installed ,hopefully by spring.

I am a self employed carpenter that works in a bike shop and grooms the local hill.

I make less than 40k a year and can afford to do this.

rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Nov 25, 2018 - 04:10pm PT
I agree whole heartedly with whatever Ed said to MadBolter....
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 25, 2018 - 04:42pm PT
“We don’t have to do it”

Hence the rub.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Nov 25, 2018 - 05:12pm PT
you always go off mb

You always dodge, Ed, while pretending to be expert on ALL topics. Your responses dodged my points in all respects.

Just one example: You totally switch gears on YOUR usage of "dumping" from upthread. You start by referring to it in the illegal sense of a company dumping rather than correctly and ecologically-soundly processing it. Then I respond that THAT sort of dumping is illegal, unnecessary, and ridiculous. Then you change it up to refer to ALL forms of sewage disposal.

Dodge and fail.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Nov 25, 2018 - 05:14pm PT
Humans are causing this recent extinction event

And ridiculous hyperbole like that is why the lib take on this issue is not credible, and it's why you cannot be taken seriously as an expert on all topics.

Wow... extinction event. Just wow.

Religious fervor is exactly the way to describe it.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 25, 2018 - 05:17pm PT
Moose ,you are not a hypocrite.

I am really tired of that moniker,if you are interested in change ,you are helping the efforts.

Not everyone can do this,but,it is not rocket science.

Say you live in Ithaca ,New York,I am sorry ,but ,you have no choice in your energy supplier,the county mandates renewable power,voted by the people and you do not have to have solar panels on your house because the local grid is powered by solar fields and windmills.

They are shutting down their coal burning plant ,January 1st.

Big party that nite in town.

MB1 ,just wtf do you call your effen EXTENDED hyperblow,ffs.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 25, 2018 - 05:17pm PT
The attempt to correctly price ... GHGs is one way to affect the nature of energy production.

This is a bit of a straw-man.


1. You don't even know what a strawman is.
Charging people for their external costs is quite logical.

2. And there have been numerous studies of those costs, despite MB's typical nonsense claims otherwise.
Charging for GHGs is indeed only an interim step.

3. Mandates are plausible in the very long run but like Ed said highly disruptive if you expect them to work. In order to work you have to outlaw existing combustion devices, not just new ones. That means not just rules on new vehicles, but just as quickly banning existing vehicles, and fossil fuel furnaces.

4. A schedule of increasing Revenue neutral taxes is actually much easier for people to adjust to.

5. Expecting much results from individual unilateral voluntary actions is not realistic. That won't make a significant dent in GHGs. People respond to market conditions, such as the fact that fuel is quite cheap. That's why so few people buy hybrids.

Jon Beck

Trad climber
Oceanside
Nov 25, 2018 - 05:18pm PT
I disagree whole heartedly with whatever MadBolter said
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 25, 2018 - 05:21pm PT
Yeah,no kidding,one must wonder if he is funded.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Nov 25, 2018 - 05:25pm PT
Ahh, the typical lib dog-pile, right on time. No substantive responses, but "disagree with whatever" right on cue. At least Ed tries.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Nov 25, 2018 - 05:27pm PT
So, does your "whatever" include me saying that liberals need to seek consensus among even deniers on the common ground that DOES exist regarding the need to get the US off of fossil fuels? Or does "being right" still trump all in your little minds?
TLP

climber
Nov 25, 2018 - 05:30pm PT
Mad, there is indeed an extinction event ongoing; in terms of magnitude, in the same ballpark as other previous ones that are referred to using that same term. It is not hyperbole at all. A large part of it is just from habitat destruction by humans, but climate change contributes to it too, and probably will be a larger contributing factor in the (relatively near) future.

That's just the objective science of it, not religious fervor at all. Don't shriek about hyperbole that is just the basic facts as widely, probably universally, acknowledged by the scientists who are knowledgeable about the subject.

wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 25, 2018 - 05:37pm PT
“At least Ed tries”

Why would I want to “try” with someone like you ?

Really.

You called my scientific belief religion.

Just what the phuck are you driven by.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Nov 25, 2018 - 05:38pm PT
^^^ BS

I guess that because you libs IDENTIFY as witnessing an extinction event, that makes it real.

Global history does not sustain the claim. Sorry.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Nov 25, 2018 - 05:40pm PT
Why would I want to “try” with someone like you ?

Precisely why other than this post I don't respond to you.

Many of the libs on these threads are die-hard, drunk-on-the-Kool-Aid wannabe "thinkers." Truly cultish thinking.

But, see, you are going to HAVE to deal with people that do not agree with you, IF you actually care to make progress on this issue. Or, as I've been saying, you can die in your superior attitude, knowing that as the world burns, you were "right."

LOL
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 25, 2018 - 05:41pm PT
So you believe it is all SUSTAINABLE
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Nov 25, 2018 - 05:44pm PT
Just what the phuck are you driven by.

Significant back-edit there.

I'll answer that. I'm driven by seeing something actually get DONE, and you libs with your typical attitude and cherry-picked "science" are NOT getting it done!

I'm driven to point out exactly why you can't get the traction you think you deserve, and it's because you REFUSE to get out of your little echo chamber and be truly strategic and open-minded in your approach to those that don't agree with you.

I WANT the US off of fossil fuels asap! And that is NOT going to happen as long as the current sort of lib "thinking" and "dialog" prevails.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Nov 25, 2018 - 05:48pm PT
You called my scientific belief religion.

Wow, so you basically back-edited your entire post to make it say completely different things than what I originally responded to.

Okay, yes, you have a belief. But it is NOT scientific. Even the amount of temperature increase predicted to occur by 2100 if things continue at the present rate will not have the Earth as warm as it has been during MANY of its epochs, and tremendous speciation occurs during warming trends.

So, "extinction event" is at best a difficult claim to sustain, verging on ridiculous.

And the lib belief in "all bad... ALL BAAADDDDD!" literally is stated with religious fervor.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 25, 2018 - 05:52pm PT
Well ,folks,you all see this display right here.

Plenty of people are concerned about CC.

It is these kinds of interactions that turn people off of the subject allowing said denier/stockholder/investers to have an upper hand in the so called “discussion”.

Hypocrisy.

Reminds me of the Chief.

I do not have to be right ,but , I have worked hard in my life to get where I am , I back science and fact.

Believe who you want.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Nov 25, 2018 - 05:55pm PT
It is these kinds of interactions that turn people off of the subject allowing said denier/stockholder/investers to have an upper hand in the so called “discussion”.

Yes, but what you're not getting your narrow mind to encompass is that it's YOUR side that needs to win the debate. And YOUR approach isn't getting it done.

'Nuff said. I tire of it. I've said what I care to say.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 25, 2018 - 05:58pm PT
By the way MB, I have a degree in Geology from SUNY and am currently enrolled in Cornell’s Environmental Engineering program.

The answer is coming.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 25, 2018 - 06:00pm PT
I am not religious, but thank the lord

This is a back edit, just like the two sentences earlier,that bothered the guy who mounts walls and walls of text.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 25, 2018 - 06:15pm PT
You always dodge, Ed, while pretending to be expert on ALL topics.

I don't claim to be an expert on all subjects, if I were, why would I engage in these discussions? Largely I try to back up my claims using references to science that I've read.

As "extinction events" go, the current Earth is certainly on track.

Look at the collapse of the Atlantic Cod, which the fishermen denied was happening, until they couldn't find any more fish to catch. The oceans are overfished, and there is a back of the envelop calculation that in the next few decades, the amount of plastic garbage in the oceans will exceed, by weight, the amount of fish by weight.

We can quibble over the numbers, what is amazing is that it is close enough to quibble.

Has the Earth’s sixth mass extinction already arrived?

Anthony D. Barnosky, Nicholas Matzke, Susumu Tomiya, Guinevere O. U. Wogan, Brian Swartz, Tiago B. Quental, Charles Marshall, Jenny L. McGuire, Emily L. Lindsey, Kaitlin C. Maguire, Ben Mersey & Elizabeth A. Ferrer
Nature volume 471, pages 51–57 (03 March 2011)

Abstract
Palaeontologists characterize mass extinctions as times when the Earth loses more than three-quarters of its species in a geologically short interval, as has happened only five times in the past 540 million years or so. Biologists now suggest that a sixth mass extinction may be under way, given the known species losses over the past few centuries and millennia. Here we review how differences between fossil and modern data and the addition of recently available palaeontological information influence our understanding of the current extinction crisis. Our results confirm that current extinction rates are higher than would be expected from the fossil record, highlighting the need for effective conservation measures.

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.731.4467&rep=rep1&type=pdf

"...Our examination of existing data in these contexts raises two important points. First, the recent loss of species is dramatic and serious but does not yet qualify as a mass extinction in the palaeontological sense of the Big Five. In historic times we have actually lost only a few per cent of assessed species (though we have no way of knowing how many species we have lost that had never been described). It is encouraging that there is still much of the world’s biodiversity left to save, but daunting that doing so will require the reversal of many dire and escalating threats7, 20, 61, 62, 63..."
Minerals

Social climber
The Deli
Nov 25, 2018 - 06:19pm PT
Minerals ,I made a phone call this morning.

Sounds like you are in good shape with your biodiesel supplier, wilbeer. Good deal.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 25, 2018 - 06:21pm PT
MB
I guess that because you libs IDENTIFY as witnessing an extinction event, that makes it real.
Global history does not sustain the claim. Sorry.


Only the truly and deliberately ignorant could have missed all the studies showing the number of species going extinct. - Caused not only by GHGs, so far more due to human population and development & destruction of natural habitat. But we are seeing more and more extinctions due to GHGs, causing drought in some areas, and in the oceans rising CO2, acidity, temperature, and reduced oxygen.

Likely these are same people that miss and ignore all the various calculations of the impacts of increased GHGs, such as the latest federal assessment. https://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-climate-report-federal-government-20181123-story.html


Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 25, 2018 - 06:25pm PT
"Even the amount of temperature increase predicted to occur by 2100 if things continue at the present rate will not have the Earth as warm as it has been during MANY of its epochs, and tremendous speciation occurs during warming trends."

1. This silly claim is like saying that because Hitler killed many, it's okay for Stalin.

2. It ignores the fact the previous climate changes had far more gradual effects on people. In fact there was little civilization as we know it. People could easily adapt to changing sea level and climate when they didn't have the massive infrastructure we have now. And generally there were so few people that they could easily move somewhere else.

3. The climate change happening today is faster than many species can adapt.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 25, 2018 - 06:29pm PT
Minerals,thank you.

I have never said that BD is the answer to anything,my diesels run well with it and it is part of the whole reduction.

It is the least I could do.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 25, 2018 - 06:37pm PT
MB:
I WANT the US off of fossil fuels asap! And that is NOT going to happen as long as the current sort of lib "thinking" and "dialog" prevails.


Claiming the lack of action on GHGs is due to libs is more absolute nonsense, which is what we expect from the deniers and the mad. Why do you suppose it is California, the most liberal state, which has unilaterally taken the most action on GHGs?
Minerals

Social climber
The Deli
Nov 25, 2018 - 06:54pm PT
Well, if using biodiesel is a way to recycle waste from restaurants, etc., then that is a good thing. Why throw it away if you can find another use for it? Our ‘disposable society’ may very well become a disposable society...
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 25, 2018 - 07:06pm PT
Reclaimation is the future.
Minerals

Social climber
The Deli
Nov 25, 2018 - 07:14pm PT
Just wait ‘til we are mining our landfills... : )
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Nov 25, 2018 - 07:25pm PT
Believe it or not the thought came up and reminded me of a buddy of mine a few years back actually bought a couple of acres of landfill...... for his sons.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Nov 25, 2018 - 10:07pm PT
as far as "hand wringing" my last 7 years of research have been in exploring a major possible alternative energy source, fusion, what have you been doing?

Noble work. And I've heard we're getting very close. Back in 1978. And 1989. And 1994. And 2003. And 2010. Only 15 more years, I hear! I mean...heard.

Hopefully, you're one of the HB11 guys--and not a neutron scatterer.

What have I been doing? Living my life like everyone else. Attending to personal hygiene. Mowing my grass and organizing clutter. Buying up thorium futures. And lithium as a hedge.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 26, 2018 - 12:41am PT
Hopefully, you're one of the HB11 guys--and not a neutron scatterer.

why would you say that?
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Nov 26, 2018 - 06:10am PT
"as far as "hand wringing" my last 7 years of research have been in exploring a major possible alternative energy source, fusion, what have you been doing?"

Oh, you know, converting operations to biodiesel - over 10 years ago. Taking 3-4 million gallons of fossil fuel out of use.

That's just one example out of 10 I could list on an industrial scale, that puts any individual contribution like "I'm researching future potential that's been researched for 30 years" to shame... Keep it up Ed - maybe before you die... Maybe...
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 26, 2018 - 07:59am PT
I doubt that we'd have industrial scale fusion power before I die...
...the discovery of fusion will be 100 years old in 2020, and so far only one of Eddington's prophesies has been realized.

I think there are many things that can be done, I was responding to the characterization that those of us concerned with climate change were not trying to find solutions, as hyperbolic as that claim was.

Good on you (and everyone else) who are trying to figure it out.
ionlyski

Trad climber
Polebridge, Montana
Nov 26, 2018 - 08:54am PT
Personally, I'm a life-long vegetarian, which actually is quite "disruptive"

Yes it is.

But where do you get your protein and energy to fund your wall of text MB? It is impressive. Did you get a new supply of high grade beans recently? You come on here every few months or so and foam so hard at the mouth, you creep people out. I'd say Ed has been very generous and restrained whilst stepping around your pile of green bile.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 26, 2018 - 09:34am PT
Interesting video on Paris Climate Agreement. Sounds like China and India promise nothing for the next decade. Did any countries promise to give a pound of flesh?

Rightwing propaganda or fairly accurate assessment?

[Click to View YouTube Video]
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 26, 2018 - 09:46am PT
^^^so you're saying that the United States should take the position to act completely contrary to the intent of the Paris Accords, that is to enhance coal based energy production, rather than become a world leader in the difficult issue of mitigating climate change?

This is setting aside the apparently very large contributions that US energy production made to the problem since the end of WWII, 3 to 4 decades of leading emissions of GHG, when China and India made little.

China and India, along with the US, are major impediments to mitigating GHG production. I'd rather see the US in a leadership position on this issue.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 26, 2018 - 10:25am PT
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA

Nov 26, 2018 - 09:46am PT
^^^so you're saying that the United States should take the position to act completely contrary to the intent of the Paris Accords, that is to enhance coal based energy production, rather than become a world leader in the difficult issue of mitigating climate change?

LOL

Getting trolled by the esteemed Ed Hartonui.

Must've hit a nerve.

SomebodyAnybody

Big Wall climber
Torrance

Nov 26, 2018 - 09:46am PT
I'm not wasting my time on a known propagandist with a decades long history of outright misrepresentations.

Killing the messenger is so much easier than refuting the message.

Yep. Hit a nerve.

Paris Climate accord - toothless paper tiger

Maybe we could start with massive gas taxes. It seems to be a hit in France.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 26, 2018 - 10:27am PT
Sure, take a page from my book and turn a troll into a "teachable moment"

You are a great critic.

Maybe you could say what you think should happen, if anything, vis-a-vis the US policy on climate change.
StahlBro

Trad climber
San Diego, CA
Nov 26, 2018 - 01:56pm PT
https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/scientists-earth-endangered-by-new-strain-of-fact-resistant-humans?fbclid=IwAR3bJGE_ESQHyXfmf-LWEDt2O74yqoSyBdzklR0MweSs2dtiR9X08hFwvJk

Fact Resistant Humans
TradMike

Trad climber
Cincinnati, Ohio
Nov 27, 2018 - 10:57am PT
The population explosion on our planet in the last 100 years has had the biggest impact on the world. The amount of pollution we are putting out is staggering and not just carbon. There are superfund sites everywhere. Nuclear meltdowns poisoning everything. Every product you purchase has a negative impact on the globe. You can't drink out of any of the streams anymore except for a few pristine areas but those are rapidly being encroached upon and will be ruined as well. The easiest fix would be to reduce our population down to a sustainable level and still enjoy the power from fossil fuels. Every way I look at it, it makes the most sense. If each family unit could reduce their offspring down to two maximum, the population would slowly decrease. There is no easy way to reduce carbon emissions and the alternates are just not there yet and maybe never will be there. There are too many people out there that do not care in the least to make a change. They say they will be dead so who cares (I hear this comment a lot).

I think all of those who mass produce babies are the main culprit. Once you hit maximum density, you migrate away taking that same problem elsewhere until the globe is full. We were beyond full a century ago.

Some interesting charts for thought
Lituya

Mountain climber
Nov 27, 2018 - 11:15am PT
If each family unit could reduce their offspring down to two maximum, the population would slowly decrease.

The developed world is already there.

August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Nov 27, 2018 - 11:58am PT
By 2050 around 2.2 billion people could be added to the global population and more than half of that growth will occur in Africa.

Future population predictions are just that, predictions. But it still doesn't look good.

I have my doubts that Africa is going to ever sufficiently develop to bring birth rates down to replacement levels. Their politics seem worse than what southeast Asia had. The model where you can go from an agricultural model to employing lots of people in low skill manufacturing looks like it is coming to an end. Automation is chipping away at even the lowest paid jobs and there are other reasons that low skill manufacturing is likely to stay in Asia beyond employee costs.

The developed world is going to have social problems from a rapidly aging population and not enough tax payers for pensioners.

And Africa is going to be a constant source of humanitarian crisis and population outflow.

I think both trends are going to continue to create conditions ripe for populist politicians with simplistic nationalist agendas.

That isn't going to be conducive to world wide cooperation to bring down CO2 levels.

Hope I'm wrong on all of that.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Nov 27, 2018 - 12:16pm PT
Don't forget that conservatives and the religious right believe their duty is to go forth and multiply. And they have actively stopped and prevented all US aid, efforts, and policies towards family planning across the globe.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 27, 2018 - 12:28pm PT
Global population growth, like global warming, is an issue that's difficult to generate concern on a personal level. It's an intangible that concerns an unspecified period in the distant future.

Most people (just about everyone) focus on basic concerns, for their immediate family. Then, it's general well being for extended family, friends and neighbors.

The further away the issue in time and scope, the less people care.

Global warming.

Global population.

What to do? What to do?
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Nov 27, 2018 - 01:24pm PT
Stop the aid?

As Obama said... Yes we can!



WBraun

climber
Nov 27, 2018 - 01:45pm PT
scht00pidest Americans ever.

Thinking they are going to save the Africans.

St00pid Americans can't even save themselves then play God and fuk up the whole planet ....
Lituya

Mountain climber
Nov 27, 2018 - 06:06pm PT
Malemute, your need to dominate this conversation with anecdote after anecdote after anecdote reminds me of a carnival barker. Nobody is reading them anymore. Geeeeez, man, do you ever take a break?
Norton

climber
The Wastelands
Nov 27, 2018 - 06:21pm PT
anecdote

noun
a short and amusing or interesting story about a real incident or person.
"told anecdotes about his job"

synonyms: story, tale, narrative, incident; More
an account regarded as unreliable or hearsay.
"his wife's death has long been the subject of rumor and anecdot



fact

a thing that is indisputably the case.
synonyms: reality, actuality, certainty;


The definition of peer reviewed is something, usually some type of research or study, that has been tested, checked and scrutinized by individuals within the same field.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 27, 2018 - 07:55pm PT
Free O2 is, perhaps, the signature of a living planet

actually it seems it's the N2 which is most out of equilibrium...

August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Nov 27, 2018 - 09:01pm PT
Global population growth, like global warming, is an issue that's difficult to generate concern on a personal level. It's an intangible that concerns an unspecified period in the distant future.
...

The further away the issue in time and scope, the less people care.

Global warming.

Global population.

What to do? What to do?

Those are real issues and the most powerful individuals in the world: politicians, presidents, prime ministers, CEOs, hedge fund managers, etc., all mostly 50+ in age.

Say it is the year 2050 and the climate is really, really bleak. There is no policy or change that could be made that would really make a difference over the following 20~30 years.

So for anyone over 50, the only reason to change is for the benefit of the generations that follow. Because you will be dead before the benefits of the changes really kick in. Unless there is a big increase in life expectancy, or some unseen technology, the 50+ crowd is not likely to ever see a direct benefit from a policy change.

What to do? Voting against Republicans is a start.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Nov 27, 2018 - 09:04pm PT
Free O2 is, perhaps, the signature of a living planet

actually it seems it's the N2 which is most out of equilibrium...

Sorry, Ed--not biting. But hopefully you found the piece (and the question itself) interesting.

What is a Lituya?
I'm not trying to educate the deniers, they prefer to be ignorant.

Malcontent, if you could actually read this thread as well as you copy and paste to it, you might realize just how ridiculous your statement is.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 27, 2018 - 11:34pm PT
ON MODELING AND INTERPRETING THE ECONOMICS OF CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE

Martin L. Weitzman

Abstract—With climate change as prototype example, this paper analyzes the implications of structural uncertainty for the economics of low probability, high-impact catastrophes. Even when updated by Bayesian learning, uncertain structural parameters induce a critical “tail fattening” of posterior-predictive distributions. Such fattened tails have strong implications for situations, like climate change, where a catastrophe is theoretically possible because prior knowledge cannot place sufficiently narrow bounds on overall damages. This paper shows that the economic consequences of fat-tailed structural uncertainty (along with unsureness about high-temperature damages) can readily outweigh the effects of discounting in climate-change policy analysis.

[Click to View YouTube Video]
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 27, 2018 - 11:44pm PT
Sorry, Ed--not biting. But hopefully you found the piece (and the question itself) interesting.


the increased CO2 in the atmosphere that would result from burning all the fossil fuels would not support the civilization that was doing the burning. The amount of CO2 in the current atmosphere is 3,200 billion metric tons (at 410 ppm). Where would the 37,000 billion metric tons of your fossil fuel burning go?

A more interesting line of questioning (in my mind) is to pursue your assertion (which is common enough) that the O2 in the atmosphere is a signature of life.

The signature of life is an atmosphere in disequilibrium, and on the Earth, the ocean-land-atmosphere system make the N2 fraction in the atmosphere the most out of equilibrium.

The biosphere is what drives the disequilibrium, at about a terawatt. There was a lot of life before the O2 atmosphere...
...note also that human energy production (6 TW) exceeds this.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 28, 2018 - 07:51am PT
Free O2 is, perhaps, the signature of a living planet

another question to consider: where does the O2 come from? what is the O2 cycle?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxygen_cycle

how does climate change effect photosynthesis?
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Nov 28, 2018 - 08:42am PT
A common atmosphere for a lifeless world is one dominated by CO2. On the Earth photosynthesis by life removed most of the CO2 leaving the N2, and produced O2 . O2 also protected the H2O by reacting with any free H2 before it can escape to space. O2 led to the protective ozone that also plays some role in saving the water, I bet. The production of O2 is a key part of getting the high N2 and H2O in the atmosphere.

While Venus' atmosphere is mostly carbon dioxide, it is much thicker than Earth's, and contains four times the nitrogen.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/briankoberlein/2016/08/15/why-is-earths-atmosphere-so-different-from-other-planets/#23ebd3607022

“Today the atmosphere is rich in oxygen, which reacts with both hydrogen and deuterium to recreate water, which falls back to the Earth's surface. So the vast bulk of the water on Earth is held in a closed system that prevents the planet from gradually drying out."

Without O2 Earth would be waterless and much like Venus.

http://sciencenordic.com/earth-has-lost-quarter-its-water

https://www.google.com/search?q=nitrogen+mars+venus&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b-1

https://www.google.com/search?q=earth+water+lost+to+space&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b-1

https://globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/current/lectures/Perry_Samson_lectures/evolution_atm/
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Nov 28, 2018 - 08:52am PT
Krissansen-Totton, Joshua, David S. Bergsman, and David C. Catling. "On detecting biospheres from chemical thermodynamic disequilibrium in planetary atmospheres." Astrobiology 16.1 (2016): 39-67.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1503.08249.pdf

Abstract
Atmospheric chemical disequilibrium has been proposed as a method for detecting extraterrestrial biospheres from exoplanet observations. Chemical disequilibrium is potentially a generalized biosignature since it makes no assumptions about particular biogenic gases or metabolisms. Here, we present the first rigorous calculations of the thermodynamic chemical disequilibrium in Solar System atmospheres, in which we quantify the available Gibbs energy: the Gibbs free energy of an observed atmosphere minus that of atmospheric gases reacted to equilibrium. The purely gas phase disequilibrium in Earth’s atmosphere is mostly attributable to O2 and CH4. The available Gibbs energy is not unusual compared to other Solar System atmospheres and smaller than that of Mars. However, Earth’s fluid envelope contains an ocean, allowing gases to react with water and requiring a multiphase calculation with aqueous species. The disequilibrium in Earth’s atmosphere-ocean system (in joules per mole of atmosphere) ranges from ~20 to 2×E6 times larger than the disequilibria of other atmospheres in the Solar System, where Mars is second to Earth. Only on Earth is the chemical disequilibrium energy comparable to the thermal energy per mole of atmosphere (excluding comparison to Titan with lakes, where quantification is precluded because the mean lake composition is unknown). Earth’s disequilibrium is biogenic, mainly caused by the coexistence of N2, O2 and liquid water instead of more stable nitrate. In comparison, the O2-CH4 disequilibrium is minor, although kinetics requires a large CH4 flux into the atmosphere. We identify abiotic processes that cause disequilibrium in the other atmospheres. Our metric requires minimal assumptions and could potentially be calculated using observations of exoplanet atmospheres. However, further work is needed to establish whether thermodynamic disequilibrium is a practical exoplanet biosignature, requiring an assessment of false positives, noisy observations, and other detection challenges. Our Matlab code and databases for these calculations are available, open source.
TLP

climber
Nov 28, 2018 - 10:03am PT
Without O2 Earth would be waterless and much like Venus.
But there wasn't O2 in the atmosphere for the first approximately 3.1 billion years of Earth's existence (or, at most, only a very small amount). Photosynthetic organisms were converting CO2 into O-- for at least 2 billion of those years, more likely almost 3 billion, but either not in very great quantity, or it was all reacting with other elements and not becoming O2. The factors that led to a big enough increase in photosynthesis to create an atmosphere generally similar to today's (10% O2 by about 600 million years ago; passing the present 21% at about 350 mya) are not certain, but there are darned near 4 billion years before the effects of photosynthesis had a very big effect on atmospheric composition. Big topic, very interesting.

Really interesting abstract, Ed.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Nov 28, 2018 - 10:20am PT
As an observation, people are ignorant. They listen to news tailored for them, and rarely question.

There was a recent NYT poll that was shocking. 1 out of 4 Americans cannot name a branch of government. 1 out of 10 thought that Judge Judy was a member of the Supreme Court.

I will look it up.

Remember when civics was taught?

America is in real trouble. China now publishes more scientific papers than the US. They are going to mop the floor with us some day.

Natural climate change is influenced by cycles in Earth’s orbit and the precession of its axial tilt. Mars is a great example of this. It’s orbit is more elliptical, and perihelion coincides with Southern Hemisphere winter. Apphelion coincides with Southern Hemisphere summer.

So the Southern Hemisphere is colder and has a larger ice cap.

Earth’s cycles are called Milankovich Cycles. They correlate fairly well to rises and falls of sea level. I see cycle after cycle stacked on top of each other in oil wells. We study these cycles.

The current warming is not the result of Milankovitch Cycles. Greenhouse gases are the highest in several hundred thousand years. With no greenhouse gases, we would be in an ice age. We are playing with fire. The Arctic will be ice free during the summer very soon. Glaciers are retreating around the world. Arctic ice is less than ten feet thick. It’s melting will not raise sea level much. The risk is the massive change in albedo.

I blame this on the right wing. They are always anti science unless it happens to be in their interest.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Nov 28, 2018 - 10:33am PT
Malemute, limestones are normally composed of the tests of small marine organisms. They generally preserve well in the rock record. Massive amounts of carbon are tied up in carbonate rocks.

I studied the.chemistry of calcium carbonate. Magnesium can exchange the calcium ion. Magnesium Carbonate is called Dolomite. Magnesium and calcium are a solution series in carbonate rocks.

Petroleum Geologists learn depositional environments of both carbonate and clastic rocks. I am mainly a clastics guy, but I have found more in limestones. Generally porous skeletal buildups that we call Bioherms. I found a big gas field composed of skeletal fragments. Made a ton of money.

It is.hard to explain simply, but if you are up for some reading, you could learn it on your own.

Your statement was correct, but it is a thick topic.
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Nov 28, 2018 - 10:48am PT
The cyanobacteria have an extensive fossil record. The oldest known fossils, in fact, are cyanobacteria from Archaean rocks of western Australia, dated 3.5 billion years old. This may be somewhat surprising, since the oldest rocks are only a little older: 3.8 billion years old!
Fossil Record of the Cyanobacteria - UCMP Berkeley
http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/bacteria/cyanofr.html

For the entire history of life on Earth there have been cyanobacteria photosynthesizing oxygen (O2). Even a small amount of O2 may have been enough to prevent much of the H2 from escaping to space.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Nov 28, 2018 - 01:14pm PT
Rising insurance costs may convince Americans that climate change risks are real

I used to have a lot of hope that insurance costs would drive better policy and it still might some.

But that was before I saw the state of Florida give homeowners guarantees for hurricane damage and CA pass laws to protect homeowners and PG&E from the cost of fires.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Nov 30, 2018 - 06:22pm PT
Climate change is man made but not the result of auto emissions...It's caused by the giant wind turbines that generate electricity ... The blades generate drag slowing the earths rotation reducing the air flow that cools the earth's surface....Judge Judy is an alternate judge on the US Supreme Court...Many famous rulings...
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Dec 3, 2018 - 07:44am PT
Meanwhile, in France....

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 3, 2018 - 09:51am PT
^^^you’re right there, aren’t you... ET, phone home
Jon Beck

Trad climber
Oceanside
Dec 3, 2018 - 10:05am PT
1 out of 10 thought that Judge Judy was a member of the Supreme Court.

Maybe 9 out of 10 were wrong.

New York's trial level courts are called the Supreme Court (every other state calls if Superior court) and the honorable judge was at one time a family court judge in Manhattan, so she was on the Supreme Court.

edit: disclaimer, I am in no way defending the intelligence of the American public
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Dec 3, 2018 - 10:21am PT
Moosedrule....Thanks for recognizing the genius i bring to supertopo...
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Dec 3, 2018 - 01:28pm PT
Collapse of Industrial Civilization

https://collapseofindustrialcivilization.com/tag/arctic-blue-ocean-event/

wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Dec 3, 2018 - 02:05pm PT
“Phone home”.

LOL
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Dec 4, 2018 - 08:10pm PT
https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2018/12/04/671996313/fishermen-sue-big-oil-for-its-role-in-climate-change?

More and more lawsuits against the fossil fuel industry.
Despite anti-science support from the trumpeters, some fossil fuel companies are seeking refuge & hedging their bets, such as Exxon-Mobil ploy to promote carbon tax in return for release of all their liabilities for 40 years of Lies.

https://www.vox.com/2018/7/5/17519236/colorado-climate-change-lawsuit-exxon-suncor
Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Dec 5, 2018 - 12:46pm PT
I don't know if this has been posted before, but Savory makes what appears to be an ironclad case for vastly increasing grazing herds around the world. This TED talk is absolutely worth your while, and aficionados of grass-fed beef will be cheered (sorry, vegans):

[Click to View YouTube Video]

BAd
monolith

climber
state of being
Dec 5, 2018 - 02:00pm PT
^^ Allan Savory pseudo science, debunked below.

https://slate.com/human-interest/2013/04/allan-savorys-ted-talk-is-wrong-and-the-benefits-of-holistic-grazing-have-been-debunked.html

https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/2017-2-march-april/feature/allan-savory-says-more-cows-land-will-reverse-climate-change
Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Dec 5, 2018 - 08:42pm PT
Bummer. I need to read some of the studies linked in those articles. So did Savory fabricate his reports in the talk? How do we explain the transformed landscapes that he presented using his techniques? Those were some very compelling images. Bogus?

BAd

Edit: Read the Sierra Club piece. The guy seems like something of a crank, although his method probably has value in the right context. The idea, though, that flat-out desert can be greened by butt-loads of cattle is false, of course. No amount of "grazing" can turn the Mojave into a grassy paradise. But there was something going on when we had roughly 30 million head of bison roaring across the landscape pre-Euros.
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Dec 6, 2018 - 07:01am PT
Global carbon emissions to hit record levels in 2018, scientists warn

According to the report, global carbon emissions from fossil fuel and industry are expected to grow by 2.7 percent from 2017 to 2018, meaning that the world will spew some 40.9 billion tons of the substance this year, up from 39.8 billion tons in 2017.

The spike in emissions comes as almost no growth had been recorded for the past last three years.

Fossil fuel emissions are estimated to rise this year by 4.7 percent in China, the world’s biggest carbon emitter, 6.3 percent in India, and 2.5 percent in the United States. The European Union (EU), however, showed a decrease by 0.7 percent this year.

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/12/06/582128/carbon-emissions-2018-record-levels

https://www.google.com/search?q=record+carbon+emissions&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b-1
WBraun

climber
Dec 6, 2018 - 09:30am PT
As more water runs off the ice sheet, it drives sea level rise,

Yes all that water will go into the ocean and then sun will take it and make clouds, rain will fall everywhere and make crops grow everywhere and everyone will live happily ever after .....
TradMike

Trad climber
Cincinnati, Ohio
Dec 7, 2018 - 09:55am PT
I think the big thing that people are not seeing is the collapse of the oceans and what impact that would have. Once the ocean gets too acidic due to all the carbon we are dumping into it and add to it all fertilizer aka the nitrogen we are dumping into it and then add some more heat, you get a toxic mess. It will take the forms of red tides, algae, seaweed as the foreshadowing. Then everything collapses and all oxygen disappears. Anyone who has dabbled with a saltwater fish tanks knows the cycle and what happens when the nitrates build up too much. You can do a water change in a fish tank to reduce nitrates but who will do an Ocean water change before it collapses? Everyone thought the oceans were soo vast that it wouldn't happen but it is starting and this is what scares me the most. Forget about climate change, we won't be able to breath since most of our oxygen comes from the oceans. Global population is the blame. Whoever said that the Nitrogen cycle is the problem is correct. Carbon is just a side problem to our bigger problem.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/11/141127212346.htm
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Dec 7, 2018 - 01:36pm PT
Abrupt Warming - How Much And How Fast?

How much could temperatures rise? As the image shows, a rise of more than 10°C (18°F) could take place, resulting in mass extinction of man...


http://arctic-news.blogspot.com
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Dec 7, 2018 - 11:15pm PT
No one is really talking about "killing the planet" or the end of the world.
The issue is changing it very significantly, enough to change society as we know it, in which case the impacts and costs of adapting are more than the cost of reducing GHGs in the first place.


Punitive action is a good term for those who spew lots of GHGs imposing huge impacts on other people who don't.
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Dec 8, 2018 - 09:07am PT
Awakening the Horrors of the Ancient Hothouse — Hydrogen Sulfide in the World’s Warming Oceans

“Dead Cthulu waits dreaming…” H.P. Lovecraft

In the 1930s, pulp horror writer H.P. Lovecraft penned tales of ancient monsters called Old Ones that, if awakened, would emerge to devour the world. One of these horrors, Cthulu, lay in death’s sleep in his house called R’lyeh at the bottom of the Baltic Sea (Charles Stross) awaiting some impetus to disturb him from necrotic slumber (ironically, the Baltic sea bed contains one of the world’s highest concentrations of the deadly hydrogen-sulfide producing bacteria that are a focus of this article).

https://robertscribbler.com/2014/01/21/awakening-the-horrors-of-the-ancient-hothouse-hydrogen-sulfide-in-the-worlds-warming-oceans/
Lituya

Mountain climber
Dec 9, 2018 - 11:23am PT
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/who-pays-for-a-carbon-tax-no-one-knows-e2-80-94-thats-the-problem/ar-BBQI7FG

The popularity of carbon taxes on the green left is understandable, if naïve. Imposing a tax on the consumption of anything predictably reduces the quantity of the taxed thing that people are willing to consume. The trouble is that no one knows who will bear the burden of a carbon tax; what economists call tax "incidence."
TLP

climber
Dec 9, 2018 - 02:09pm PT
It's a huge digression to sidetrack into the many flaws in that piece, so how about starting off by advocating instantly eliminating all of the huge subsidies, depletion allowances, cheap sole source deals for public land, get-out-of-jail-free cards for environmental and health costs from air and water pollution, public costs for inadequately disposed coal wastes, and other bogus anti-free-market cash cows that the fossil fuel industries benefit from. Why do we just about never hear any "conservative" outcry about those? Gross hypocrisy for sure, and obviously being in on the cash take (at a minimum in terms of political campaign expenditures) is why.

There would be flaws in implementation, incidence, and so on of a carbon tax, but what we already have in terms of sweetheart deals for the fossil fuel industry is so totally corrupt, fraudulent, hypocritical, and costly to the public as it is, it could hardly be any worse. Fix those, or even if we just saw a lot of loud advocacy for fixing them from supposed free market advocates, and you'd see less of a clamor for carbon tax.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Dec 10, 2018 - 06:25am PT
CoalSwarm published a report on September 26 warning that 259 gigawatts of coal power capacity – equivalent to the entire coal power fleet of the United States – is being built in China despite government policies restricting new builds.

This blog reported last month that China was building 46 gigawatts of coal power that had been shelved or suspended, and which was discovered by CoalSwarm through an analysis of satellite imagery.

The new estimate by CoalSwarm takes the 46 gigawatts found by satellite imagery and adds other projects in the pre-construction/construction phase, as well as 57 gigawatts of shelved projects that seem likely to go online in the near future.

Professor Yuan Jiahai of North China Electric Power University told chinadialogue that China loosened its restrictions on new coal-fired power construction in five provinces earlier this year. He is confident that China can keep its total coal power capacity within the 1100-gigawatt ceiling announced in the 13th Five-Year Plan, which runs through to 2020.

However, China’s coal power capacity already stands at 993 gigawatts, leading CoalSwarm to warn that the sector’s resurgence is wildly out of line with the Paris Agreement, which commits countries to limiting the average global temperature rise from climate change by 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period.

Facts on the ground

Satellite imagery reveals that many coal-fired power projects that were halted by the Chinese government have quietly restarted.

Analysis by CoalSwarm estimates that 46.7 gigawatts of new and restarted coal-fired power construction is visible based on satellite imagery supplied by Planet Labs. The coal-fired power plants are either generating power or will soon be operational. If all the plants reach completion they would increase China’s coal-fired power capacity by 4%.

https://www.chinadialogue.net/blog/10761-China-is-building-coal-power-again/en?fbclid=IwAR3VotOwyRDS-calIGhGCU6A34aEq4p4PlgrqyitbXBWmLGCjpfBnB5VxaY
Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Dec 10, 2018 - 08:08am PT
Didn't China sign on to the Paris climate change dealio? This is hilarious and totally predictable and, whether you like it or not, why Trump pulled out. The agreement is a joke, and the Chi-coms are laughing their asses off. I'm not saying this is a good thing, but anyone who thought differently, well, time to wake up and smell the climate change coffee. Bummer. #VANLIFE!

BAd
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Dec 10, 2018 - 09:29am PT
Much of the mercury we're poisoned with comes from coal burning:

Mercury, the other geologically persistent planetary poison

Because of mercury’s tendency to recycle after it deposits, today there is more mercury deposition called “legacy anthropogenic”, meaning recycled from emission decades ago, than there is deposition of mercury we are emitting now. So just like for carbon, we are creating an accumulating load in the mercury cycle.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/10/mercury-the-other-geologically-persistent-planetary-poison/#more-21951
Lituya

Mountain climber
Dec 10, 2018 - 09:52am PT
Fix those, or even if we just saw a lot of loud advocacy for fixing them from supposed free market advocates, and you'd see less of a clamor for carbon tax.

There is no clamor for a carbon tax--except, maybe, among elites. Even here in liberal Washington State, I-1631 carbon tax at $15/ton was recently shot down overwhelmingly. And in France, the imposition of new fuel taxes to pay for alternative energy has opened up a whole can of anti-govt fervor. So, if you want nothing to get done about a very real problem, well, keep up with the whole govt carbon tax scheme.


Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Dec 10, 2018 - 01:55pm PT
Actually the carbon fee was defeated in Washington 56% to 44%, decisive but not a landslide, even though it was actually a minor fee.

What this says to me:
Most people are too selfish and apparently expect some magical policy to fix this problem. It will be magic because they will never have to do anything until after everyone else has already complied.
This is actually the same thing I said on the first ST thread on this subject around 14 years ago. (A long-ago deleted thread).

Also, unless there is a USA federal push to limit GHGs, including an international enforcement mechanism, state unilateral policies such as this will only make a minor dent in slowing climate change.


https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/9/28/17899804/washington-1631-results-carbon-fee-green-new-deal

732 was the previous initiative in Washington a few years ago.
732 was a “revenue neutral” carbon tax, which means all the revenue raised by the tax would have been automatically returned as cuts in other taxes; the government would receive no new discretionary revenue to spend on carbon reductions or anything else. This is a longtime favorite climate policy among economists and wonks. It “taxes bads” and reduces distortionary taxes at once, all with no net increase in taxes, thus improving economic efficiency.

The tax under 732 would have started at $15 per ton in 2017, rising to $25 per ton in 2018, and then rising every year thereafter at 3.5 percent plus inflation, topping out at $100 a ton (in 2016 dollars). 732 was progressive — strongly so, maybe more so than the policy now being proposed in its stead. Its tax shifts (a cut in the state sales tax and full funding of the state’s working families tax rebate) were specifically designed to offset the regressive nature of the carbon tax. The net result would have left those lower on the income scale better off.

By contrast, 1631’s carbon fee would start at $15 per ton in 2020 and rise $2 a year (plus inflation) until 2035, where it would reach, depending on inflation, around $55. As long as the state is on track to hit its carbon targets, that’s where it will stay. After 732 failed, the 1631 coalition went all the way in the other direction from 732. Rather than returning all the carbon revenue in tax cuts, 1631 would return none of it in tax cuts. It would invest all of it. 1631’s lower carbon price means that it will rely a great deal on investment of the carbon revenue to achieve similar emission reductions.

“Frankly, this is an investment vehicle much more than a price signal,” said Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, who publicly backed 1631. “It’s a relatively low price signal, well below the real social cost of carbon. But you get the [carbon] savings from the investment side..."
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Dec 10, 2018 - 02:11pm PT
Didn't China sign on to the Paris climate change dealio? This is hilarious and totally predictable and, whether you like it or not, why Trump pulled out.

No, it is not why he pulled out. He completely denies climate change and would have pulled out even if every other country in the world were doing their part.

That was also the excuse given by Bush 43 why he pulled out of climate treaties. Pure rationalization. If Bush 43 had wanted an international agreement to work, he would have worked to improve it. Instead he ran away.

Some places such as the EU have been doing their part. Other rising countries like China and India are still greatly increasing coal usage.

If we want international policy on GHGs, there will have to be an enforcement mechanism. The west would have to gang up on China and India if they continue to build these coal plants, as they are doing. (This theoretical exercise assumes that the USA would do its part).

A very similar analog would be the WTO which is supposed to regulate free trade. China should never have been allowed into the WTO. It does not practice free trade. For 30 years they have promised to reduce all their protectionist policies and have extremely consistently failed to live up to their promises. The west has failed to agree as a whole on enforcement mechanisms. Trump is now attempting this, but he has made enemies everywhere and is mostly incompetent.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Dec 10, 2018 - 02:26pm PT
I said "No one is really talking about "killing the planet" or the end of the world.
The issue is changing it very significantly, enough to change society as we know it, in which case the impacts and costs of adapting are more than the cost of reducing GHGs in the first place."

Malemute replied
^ wrong ...


Correct - there are possible truly catastrophic impacts that could wipe out much of civilization.
But those are not the consensus at this point.
The consensus is that we will only wipe out 10-20% of civilization if we continue on our present path. You would think that would be enough incentive to act, since it will be by far the biggest calamity ever. I'm just saying that to me killing the planet is more on the order of wiping out at least 40-50% of civilization. Shades of gray.
TLP

climber
Dec 10, 2018 - 02:43pm PT
So, Lituya, you don't advocate eliminating fossil fuel industry subsidies and other financial breaks that the rest of us pay for out of our pockets (or future pockets in the case of deficit spending that the Republican party has been wildly enthusiastic about starting with Reagan through Bush Jr. and now even worse with Trump)?

Seems to me that removing unfair and unjustified positive incentives to develop and burn ever more fossil fuels ought to be a popular idea on all sides, but I guess not since the so-called "conservative" political wing is actually in reality just the owned-by-the-fossil-fuel-industry political wing.

Edit to add: Splater is spot on, up a post or two. China and India are greatly increasing coal use (all the while China saying, but we're doing what we committed to). Bunch of BS, frankly. It is absolutely correct that it would take concerted trade action on the part of a lot of significant countries to reverse this suicide-by-coal, and the current regime in the U.S. is doing everything it possibly can to prevent such action and show by example that there is no hope for collective action, supporting increased fossil fuel use in every possible way. Personally, the one thing that's the most negative is the U-turn on vehicle fuel use standards, because had they remained, there would be a better chance of an electric or electric/on-board generator work vehicle of the type that I need to appear on the market.

The prognosis is extremely grim unless severe enough climate consequences occur in those super populous countries to be a reality check that they are screwing their own people worst in pursuit of a coal future. Even then, behind closed doors those leaders might very well be saying, oh well, we have too many people anyway, this megadisaster or annual toll of heat related deaths (in India) is kind of good for us.
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Dec 11, 2018 - 10:15am PT

More Glaciers in East Antarctica Are Waking Up

East Antarctica has the potential to reshape coastlines around the world through sea level rise, but scientists have long considered it more stable than its neighbor, West Antarctica. Now, new detailed NASA maps of ice velocity and elevation show that a group of glaciers spanning one-eighth of East Antarctica’s coast have begun to lose ice over the past decade, hinting at widespread changes in the ocean.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2018/more-glaciers-in-antarctica-are-waking-up
kunlun_shan

Mountain climber
SF, CA
Dec 11, 2018 - 12:28pm PT
In case this hasn't been posted elsewhere....

Tommy Caldwell, who free climbed Dawn Wall, says effects of climate change on Yosemite 'shocking'

https://www.sfgate.com/outdoors/article/Tommy-Caldwell-dawn-wall-yosemite-climate-change-13457876.php

McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Dec 11, 2018 - 12:59pm PT
This is hilarious and totally predictable and, whether you like it or not, why Trump pulled out.

You guys talking about the Rhythm Method? That might explain a lot! Trump may have trouble separating all this stuff out, and could explain why he called Paradise 'Pleasure'.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Dec 11, 2018 - 01:23pm PT
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Dec 13, 2018 - 01:23pm PT
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^Wow, good post.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Dec 13, 2018 - 09:48pm PT
^^ So, Moose, would love to hear more about your trip to Pakistan earlier this year. Also, looking forward to hearing about your trip to Corsica coming up in 2019! Self-restraint and sacrifice is for proles--right?
dgbryan

Mountain climber
Hong Kong
Dec 13, 2018 - 10:15pm PT
So, Moose, would love to hear more about your trip to Pakistan earlier this year. Also, looking forward to hearing about your trip to Corsica coming up in 2019! Self-restraint and sacrifice is for proles--right?

You're right ... this is why we're fooked. Personally deeply troubled by the astronomical rise in the price of long-haul business class seats out of Asia. Hard to lead the examined life when you're pretzled into economy with the hoi polloi.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Dec 13, 2018 - 11:08pm PT
Here is the only voice that the USA government listens to:

In recent months, Marathon Petroleum also teamed up with the American Legislative Exchange Council, a secretive policy group financed by corporations as well as the Koch network, to draft legislation for states supporting the industry’s position. Its proposed resolution, dated Sept. 18, describes current fuel-efficiency rules as “a relic of a disproven narrative of resource scarcity” and says “unelected bureaucrats” shouldn’t dictate the cars Americans drive.
A separate industry campaign on Facebook was covertly run by an oil-industry lobby representing Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Phillips 66 and other oil giants.
The oil industry’s campaign, the details of which have not been previously reported, illuminates why the rollbacks have gone further than the more modest changes automakers originally lobbied for.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/the-oil-industry’s-covert-campaign-to-rewrite-american-car-emissions-rules/ar-BBQTYqn?ocid=spartanntp
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 13, 2018 - 11:32pm PT
carbon credit offsets for flights are being implemented
https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/CORSIA/Pages/default.aspx

one could also reduce air travel...
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/climate/airplane-pollution-global-warming.html
Jon Beck

Trad climber
Oceanside
Dec 14, 2018 - 12:10am PT
nice chart Edward, good representation of the fact that per capita US carbon emissions are more than double those of China. It is good that our emissions took a slight down tick. Hell, in hundred years we might be equal with China.

USA USA USA
Lituya

Mountain climber
Dec 14, 2018 - 11:39am PT
carbon credit offsets for flights are being implemented

I'm not Catholic, so please explain this whole carbon credits program for jet-setters. Would I be purchasing simony? or indulgences?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 15, 2018 - 08:07am PT
I'm not Catholic, so please explain this whole carbon credits program for jet-setters.

I'm not catholic either, so I can't help you with your snark...

...by pricing carbon, you put it into the market to be bought and sold. If you want to buy a 15 mpg SUV it's your business, the increased carbon emission is paid for by the carbon cost. If you don't want to pay that cost, you buy a vehicle with less or no emission. Your choice.

Since we do not have a carbon market operating in the country (though various states do) individuals can buy carbon credits. These are usually supporting projects that offset their carbon production, once the project is completed the credits are retired, and can be used to demonstrate that the individual's carbon generation has been offset elsewhere.

organizations exist to evaluate the projects that would offset, e.g.
http://www.climateactionreserve.org

and to buy credits:
https://www.green-e.org

an example of how it works:
https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/www.google.com/en//green/pdfs/google-carbon-offsets.pdf

in principle, one can be flexible in their use of carbon, offsetting that use by helping reduce its emissions elsewhere. Most airlines will move to this system in compliance with the various climate accords, the cost of carbon emission in air travel will be included in the ticket costs, and used to buy carbon credits to offset the carbon production of the flight.

Individual travelers can buy these credits now. Both the airlines and the individuals can look for flights that minimize carbon emissions, e.g. use of biofuels, increased efficiency, etc.

The carbon credit market provides a transition as the market place evolves to a carbon free energy economy
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Dec 15, 2018 - 08:49am PT
Ed, making sh#t more expensive and taking away what little wealth people have is a non-starter. It's f*#king cruel to poor people.

You're worried about the end of the world, when most Americans are worried about the end of the month.

Find a way to make everything cost less - instead of doing the opposite - and you'll never have to worry about public support ever again.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 15, 2018 - 09:29am PT
I'm not insisting that everyone participate in the carbon credit market Chaz, you can choose to do it if you want, or not.

At this point it could be considered an investment for those who are inclined to worry about the future costs of using cheap energy.

Many of the costs of climate change are not apparent, but are costs we all bear, a greatly lengthened fire season in California costs the state tax payers in supporting fire suppression activities. The loss of housing in the Santa Rosa area last year and this year around Chico, as well as other places in the state have an impact on insurance rates. Many of those who lost their housing in Chico were far from wealthy, having moved there because it was affordable.

California water supplies are also effected. The complicated water rights makes most of that water available to agricultural interests, these interests represent a wealthy constituency. Agribusiness employs many workers at the not-wealthy end of the spectrum. The recent drought (ongoing?) put a lot of pressure on this business sector, and a call for renewed public investment in water storage. Why should we, the taxpayer, invest?

In the meantime the public electric utilities have increased the demand for electricity used to pump water out of the aquifer, water that is "public" but unregulated in any way. The costs for the increased capacity is borne by the rate payers. Californians loose that water resource, and pay for the infrastructure to have it pumped out of the ground for private commercial interests.

Climate change will change the historic Californian water cycle (it already has), and costs Californians at all ends of the economic spectrum.

The point being that you do not price your energy use taking into account the consequences of that use. This is no longer about what might happen in the future, but what is happening now.



As for carbon credits to offset carbon use, at this point it is an individual's choice to participate. If I buy carbon credits to offset my journeys to Yosemite by private automobile, I can count this personal activity as carbon neutral.

And good on you Chaz for taking up the cause of the poor people! If we can think beyond ourselves following your example I'm sure we can come up with workable solutions.

You must be pretty upset that the Saudis have decided to cut back on production to increase the price of oil.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 15, 2018 - 02:56pm PT
by that site's estimate our cost is $150/yr
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Dec 15, 2018 - 06:18pm PT
You're worried about the end of the world, when most Americans are worried about the end of the month.

Find a way to make everything cost less - instead of doing the opposite - and you'll never have to worry about public support ever again.

We can give the 1% a trillion+ tax gift but we can't spend jack on trying to bequeath a slightly less terrifying world to our grandkids because some Americans can't make ends meet.

If R's ever get a chance to gut social security to pay for the tax cuts there will be even greater cry to do nothing in order to save the poor so the rich can go on spewing CO2.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Dec 15, 2018 - 09:21pm PT
Like I said--most of you are nothing more than California elites buying forgiveness and pre-paid indulgences used to justify your highbrow globetrotting. Correction--most of you are just "thinking about it." Does anyone here really believe the CO2 emitted during a round trip LAX to Pakistan can be offset with twenty-six bucks? C'mon, people, you're all (claiming to be) smarter than this.

https://capitalresearch.org/article/carbonfund-org-carbon-scheming-gone-wild/

"Lost in the public relations whirlwind is this core truth: Carbonfund.org’s mission depends on acquiring something that doesn’t exist—yet. There are no pollution “rights” for businesses, nonprofits and individuals to sell or offset."
Bargainhunter

climber
Dec 15, 2018 - 09:43pm PT
Lituya, have you considered anchoring your boat back in your bay and waiting for the next earthquake?
Lituya

Mountain climber
Dec 15, 2018 - 09:51pm PT
My little island is completely safe, I assure you. Besides, the glaciers that sit atop the fault at the head of the bay no longer reach tidewater. Sadly, the dump trucks are almost empty.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 15, 2018 - 10:04pm PT
Does anyone here really think the CO2 emitted during a round trip LAX to Pakistan can be offset with twenty-six bucks? C'mon, people, you're all (claiming to be) smarter than this.

I think you didn't read about the idea that you can find credits that support mitigation in a meaningful and certifiable way.

That is the point of the Google link... that you spend money to mitigate the carbon you don't reduce.

In that way, it is just an investment, the dollars you spend now to mitigate the carbon you emit is less than the money you will spend in the future to mitigate the same amount of carbon.

And it is an individual choice, when done with due diligence it can actually offset individual carbon emission.

It is something an individual can do without having to wait for the government policy to change. And it's not that expensive, and what's more, you can reduce the expense by changing your choices.

I actually had it at about $40 for a trip from SFO to JFK, another calculator had it at about $10 ($7.84 per tonne). Depending on the discount rate, which is highly uncertain, this can run from $12 to $120 dollars.

https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climatechange/social-cost-carbon_.html

So given various calculations, I'd say that yes, such mitigation costs are not inconsistent with the estimated social costs of carbon.

It sounds like you're drinking the cool-aid regarding how expensive such a carbon market might be. But in any case, individuals can purchase carbon credits that do exactly what they intend them to do, neutralize their carbon use, elite Californian or not.

This is an individual choice.

capitalresearch.org? seriously?
Lituya

Mountain climber
Dec 15, 2018 - 10:26pm PT
I think you didn't read about the idea that you can find credits that support mitigation in a meaningful and certifiable way.

That is the point of the Google link... that you spend money to mitigate the carbon you don't reduce.

In that way, it is just an investment, the dollars you spend now to mitigate the carbon you emit is less than the money you will spend in the future to mitigate the same amount of carbon

Worst

prospectus

ever.

Ed, I have little doubt that you live and practice what you preach. Most here, however, only preach. Perhaps not-so-ironically, the loudest seem to carry on the worst practices.

I'm not big on pseudo markets. I don't own any crypto currency and I certainly wouldn't hand over my hard-earned hard-risked dollars to fraudsters claiming to offer salvation in the form of carbon offsets. At the end of the day, wouldn't it be better to just skip the flight altogether?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 15, 2018 - 11:42pm PT
At the end of the day, wouldn't it be better to just skip the flight altogether?

perhaps, but based on individual choice.

I think that it is certainly better to skip the flight, if you choose to take the flight, you could also choose to invest in a project that will reduce the amount of carbon that flight emitted to get you to where you travelled.

Independent of an established carbon market, there are projects that directly reduce the GHG emissions that require funding. If you supply funding that, by the end of the project, results in the reducing the amount of GHG that your flight emitted, then you're neutral.

No government market is involved.

What is required is a list of the projects and a way of investing. These are becoming more and more available.

So if you are concerned about GHGs in the atmosphere, it is possible for you to contribute to the process of reducing them, directly by funding projects. And you can count this as a part of your carbon foot print.

Your choice.
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Dec 16, 2018 - 03:26pm PT


Death in Jurassic Park: global warming and ocean anoxia

New research links greenhouse gas-related global warming to severe environmental degradation and a mass-extinction during the Lower Jurassic Period, around 183 million years ago.

The take-home message from all of this? By whatever means an initial atmospheric carbon spike is generated (be it gigantic volcanic episodes or humans burning fossil fuels), the knock-on effects can be substantial, leading to a portfolio of severe environmental stresses that manifest themselves in the fossil record as mass-extinctions. Will Mankind's footprint, already involving severe carbon pollution and overfishing, be likewise visible in Anthropocene strata some 180 million years from now? Let us hope not, but if so, we will not be worthy of the sapiens sapiens part of our species' Latin name. The events recorded in these Toarcian rocks once again warn us starkly of our peril.

https://skepticalscience.com/jurassic-global-warming.html
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Dec 17, 2018 - 07:46am PT
Cement is the source of about 8% of the world's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions,

If the cement industry were a country, it would be the third largest emitter in the world - behind China and the US. It contributes more CO2 than aviation fuel (2.5%) and is not far behind the global agriculture business (12%).

Climate change: The massive CO2 emitter you may not know about http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46455844
WBraun

climber
Dec 17, 2018 - 08:03am PT
The bottom line ...

Modern people are clueless mental speculating idiots with no real clue to WTF they really are doing ......
Minerals

Social climber
The Deli
Dec 17, 2018 - 09:21am PT

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/17/opinion/human-extinction-climate-change.html
WBraun

climber
Dec 17, 2018 - 09:26am PT
You can't extinct human beings.

We do NOT have the power to do so ever.

Gross materialists are always ultimately in an extremely poor fund of knowledge .....
couchmaster

climber
Dec 17, 2018 - 10:09am PT

China needs to work hard on their carbon spew. Here's something interesting that they are doing about autos and why they will lead the world in electric car usage and production: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612566/why-chinas-electric-car-industry-is-leaving-detroit-japan-and-germany-in-the-dust/
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Dec 21, 2018 - 07:22am PT
Defeat in the Air at the Climate Conference

Reality has a way of fighting back. Ask Emmanuel Macron.

The latest climate talks ended here Saturday, a day late, with agreement largely reached on a rule book to implement the nonbinding Paris Agreement. The bigger story is how the United Nations climate process is losing its battle with reality.

“Will civilization descend into another dark age?” Al Gore bellowed. “I’m getting worked up early.” Yet compared with the euphoria three years ago in Paris, defeat hung in the air as delegates faced the realization that whatever they agreed in the hall had little relevance to developments in the world.

Negotiators sought to slow the rise of greenhouse emissions—around 2% a year world-wide for the past two decades. For the three years straddling the 2015 Paris conference, carbon-dioxide emissions were more or less flat. Then they resumed their upward trend—up 1.6% in 2017 and a projected 2.7% this year. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report released on the eve of the conference, all scenarios limiting warming to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit assume steep reductions in coal consumption—to zero by 2050.

That’s not going to happen. According to the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, a German think tank close to Chancellor Angela Merkel, what it calls the renaissance of coal continues, using up the available carbon budget within a decade.

Speaker after speaker at conference side-events spoke of expanded coal use. Turkey has plans for 80 new power stations to double its coal capacity and reduce dependence on imports. Chinese provinces are lobbying for more coal and Beijing is investing in coal infrastructure abroad. So are Japan, South Korea and Australia. During his September visit to Indonesia, South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in oversaw a deal to build two new coal plants there. Before the conference, in Polish coal country, Warsaw had declared it would continue burning coal—a matter of national security when the principal alternative is Russian natural gas.

Explaining why the efforts thus far hadn’t bent the curve of rising emissions, the Potsdam Institute’s chief economist, Ottmar Edenhofer, said the fundamental reality was an oversupply of fossil fuels, making it harder for renewables to be cost-competitive with coal. An underappreciated factor, he suggested, is monetary policy. Zero interest rates act as an artificial stimulus to renewable energy, which is much more capital-intensive than gas and coal. To students of Austrian economics, it’s a classic malinvestment: When interest rates are suppressed below the natural rate, too much of the wrong sort of investment leads to a boom, then a bust.

As interest rates rise, renewable energy can’t compete without carbon pricing — economists’ magic bullet to solve global warming. Therein lies the biggest cause of despair at Katowice. Thanks to French President Emmanuel Macron’s carbon-tax folly, politicians of all stripes are likely to treat carbon pricing like the plague.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/defeat-in-the-air-at-the-climate-conference-11545178525

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 22, 2018 - 09:46am PT
EdwardT's post above is about the societal reaction to climate change, not to the change itself.

As governments try to find a way to mitigate the effects, there will be political reaction. This makes the problem harder. It isn't at all clear what EdwardT views as a way forward, in the past it seems the response to the difficult problem posed by climate change is easily fixed by claiming it is not a problem, so there is nothing to fix.

If the governments of the world cannot reduce CO2 emission, then they will have to turn to some technological fix to extract CO2 from the atmosphere. There is no known viable technology that can accomplish this, and it is not clear that there could be, and certainly not on the timescale required.

An interesting perspective by Eileen Crist, Reimaging the human, "The rational response to the present-day ecological emergency would be to pursue actions that will downscale the human factor and contract our presence in the realm of nature."

'Earth is in the throes of a mass extinction event and climate change upheaval, risking a planetary shift into conditions that will be extremely challenging, if not catastrophic, for complex life (1). Although responsibility for the present trajectory is unevenly distributed, the overarching drivers are rapid increases in (i) human population, (ii) consumption of food, water, energy, and materials, and (iii) infrastructural incursions into the natural world. As the “trends of more” on all these fronts continue to swell, the ecological crisis is intensifying (2–4). Given that human expansionism is causing mass extinction of nonhuman life and threatening both ecological and societal stability, why is humanity not steering toward limiting and reversing its expansionism?'
...
'The answer lies in the deeper cause of the ecological crisis: a pervasive worldview that imbues the trends of more with a cachet of inevitability and legitimacy. This worldview esteems the human as a distinguished entity that is superior to all other life forms and is entitled to use them and the places they live.'


I suspect that there is not much government can do about this (though it can do somethings) and that the consequence of failing to address the ecological challenges that face us, and are caused by us, will force the issue.



Don Paul

Social climber
Washington DC
Dec 22, 2018 - 11:16am PT
Here's something interesting:

Harvard University Experiment to Block Sunlight, to Prevent Global Warming

According to the claims, putting calcium carbonate into the atmosphere would be a very cheap way to reduce the planet's temperature. However, with less sunlight, less crops will grow and the temperature decrease wouldn't be worth it. Still, it seems like a solution to the ultimate catastrophes that people are predicting.

I'm wondering if you could use some particulate material that selectively allows wavelengths used by photosynthesis to go through, but absorbs other wavelengths not used in photosynthesis. According to wikipedia (who else) photosynthesis uses wavelengths in the red and blue of the visible light spectrum. Maybe some material with an absorption band right in between.

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 22, 2018 - 11:19am PT
there is no simple technical fix...

geoengineering on that scale has never been done (intentionally, if you consider the increased CO2 a technology goal).

there are considerable, uncalculatable risks for doing something like this at global scales.

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 22, 2018 - 12:15pm PT
Still, it seems like a solution to the ultimate catastrophes that people are predicting.

I think this is a bit of magical thinking, a substance that we can economically disperse into the atmosphere, that counter acts the effect of increased CO2 in the atmosphere without any other adverse side affects and allows us to continue doing what we're doing.

Do we really need to emit as much CO2 as we do?
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Dec 22, 2018 - 12:47pm PT
Today's fill up

August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Dec 22, 2018 - 07:00pm PT

I suspect that there is not much government can do about this (though it can do somethings) and that the consequence of failing to address the ecological challenges that face us, and are caused by us, will force the issue.

Just because a drug addict must quit using drugs in order to live, doesn't mean he will quit using drugs.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Dec 22, 2018 - 07:07pm PT
According to the claims, putting calcium carbonate into the atmosphere would be a very cheap way to reduce the planet's temperature. However, with less sunlight, less crops will grow and the temperature decrease wouldn't be worth it. Still, it seems like a solution to the ultimate catastrophes that people are predicting.

Blocking out sunlight might get the average temperature back to what it was, but it does nothing to stop climate change.

Increasing CO2 and blocking sunlight results in a warmer artic and a cooler tropics than pre industrial times. It might slow but wouldn't stop ice melt and the weather would still be dramatically changed.

I wish articles on the subject made this more clear.
A Essex

climber
Dec 23, 2018 - 05:24am PT
Honnold drives an electric truck now!!!

we are all saved!!! global warmings have been reveresed!!!
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Dec 24, 2018 - 08:18pm PT
The right thing to disperse in the atmosphere is Sulfuric acid:

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/511016/a-cheap-and-easy-plan-to-stop-global-warming/
john hansen

climber
Dec 24, 2018 - 08:42pm PT
I am really starting to believe that the human race does not have the collective willpower to take the steps necessary to stop this runaway train.

Will we all stop driving and flying and not buying products made with power supplied by fossil fuels and crops sustained with fertilizers made from fossil fuels?

Solar and wind are almost viable but it would take a national and world wide commitment on a scale of WW2 to make that happen.. Would Americans put up with ration cards and other restriction's.

New technologies could come to be..

I had a thought that maybe if every AC and Heating unit, the fan in your car, and factory fans everywhere in the world , had a filter that could some how capture carbon as the air goes thru.

You could even build them as fences or any place the wind blows.

Like a honey comb , repetitive and cheap, a hundred miles long and 10 feet tall.

The trick would be to have the surface of these structures bond CO2 in a permanent way.



What would a chemist come up with to bond CO2 to a surface and create a solid ?





There was a good quote above..

"Just because a drug addict must quit using drugs in order to live, doesn't mean he will quit using drugs. "


Merry Christmas :)
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Dec 31, 2018 - 09:20am PT
Scientists' Warning to Humanity & Business as Un-usual

[Click to View YouTube Video]

New Climate Debate: How to Adapt to the End of the World

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-26/new-climate-debate-how-to-adapt-to-the-end-of-the-world

New Paper on Deep Adaptation to Climate Chaos

http://iflas.blogspot.com/2018/07/new-paper-on-deep-adaptation-to-climate.html

Deep Adaptation: A map for navigating the climate tragedy

http://www.lifeworth.com/deepadaptation.pdf

[Click to View YouTube Video]
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Dec 31, 2018 - 02:15pm PT
I am really starting to believe that the human race does not have the collective willpower to take the steps necessary to stop this runaway train.

Yes, it seems that discussions of how to decrease GHGs are basically just theoretical. It took 35 years just to undo the lies of the fossil fuel industry and convince people that climate change is real. Now we face the harder step of actually doing something about it. Most people believe that someone else is the problem, and won't change their habits until AFTER everyone else. Many deniers rationalize their greed by blaming the other 'hypocrites.' The middle class blame the rich. Even the poor think their excess should be subsidized. The fossil fuel industry and their puppets the republicans blame Asia as their excuse for running away from attempting any global policies.

I'd say most are somewhere in step 4, so we are a looong way from completing step 10.

The stages of climate denial:
1. denies that climate change is happening.
2. denies that it is caused by GHGs.
3. denies that humans cause the GHGs.
4. denies that the negative impacts of climate change are significant.
5. denies that the negative impacts will increase and multiply.
6. denies that there are solutions.
7. denies that the solutions are worthwhile and cost effective compare to the impending impacts.
8. denies that solutions begin at home, especially when home is a place that led the world into fossil fuel overuse.
9. denies that they, their group, their society, and their country are part of the problem.
10. denies that world policy on limiting GHGs must be THE Top Priority, and that the world must take immediate and continual new steps to improve and enforce these policies.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Dec 31, 2018 - 06:14pm PT
I am really starting to believe that the human race does not have the collective willpower to take the steps necessary to stop this runaway train.

I had a little bit of hope in the early 2000s. There were some Republicans talking about climate change being a serious issue. And the world economy was humming and the middle class was confident.

But my hope plummeted after the financial crisis, the rise of populism, and republicans closing ranks on denial.

Economic insecurity makes it much harder to generate political will to make dramatic changes in the economy.

I would be shocked if the runaway train is stopped.

And it's the boiling frog syndrome. If a weather year like 2018 had happened in the late 90s, it might have shocked people into action. Now it's just like, doesn't this happen all the time?
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Dec 31, 2018 - 06:59pm PT
This chart shows roughly the very wide spread in carbon pricing in different places. The carbon price can be due to carbon trading permits or due to direct tax.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-carbon-pricing/
It looks like France was already higher than most, which makes understandable some of them being reluctant to increase it further at this time.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 3, 2019 - 07:29am PT
So who’s Nunavut’s biggest newsmaker of 2018?

This past year offers a predictable list of usual suspects. You could probably put together your own list of public office-holders and regional celebrities who, in 2018, managed to generate headlines and entertaining gossip.

But for this year, we’re not choosing a person. For 2018, our newsmaker of the year designation goes to an entire species: the polar bear.

To earn that, the humble polar bear didn’t have to do much of anything. All they had to do was what polar bears have always done: hunt, eat, mate and protect their young.

In doing so, they caused two heart-rending Nunavut tragedies: the death of an Arviat man in July, followed by the death of a Naujaat man in August. These events have aggravated a bitter regional controversy that’s unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, especially in the Kivalliq region.

The Kangiqliniq hunters and trappers organization in Rankin Inlet even told the Nunavut Wildlife Management Board late last year that the Western Hudson Bay subpopulation is too numerous. They suggested, essentially, that they be culled until the population is smaller.

And even the Government of Nunavut now leans heavily towards that position. In the arcane language of bureaucracy, they admit that “the polar bear may have exceeded the co-existence threshold of Nunavummiut.”

At the same time, this dispute has exposed the fatal error that international conservation groups have been making for nearly two decades: the exploitation of polar bear images to collect money from donors and endorsements from pop stars.

That strategy has backfired. Some, like the World Wildlife Fund, now admit this and are trying to communicate that the polar bear is only one part of a complex ecosystem.

But in Nunavut, the damage that environmentalists have inflicted on their cause will likely last for generations. Growing numbers of people in Nunavut not only believe polar bears are a threat to public safety. Growing numbers also believe that scientists and government wildlife managers are their enemy.

On that last point, the condescending attitudes of some researchers and government officials has been rather less than helpful.

For example, the federal Department of Environment and Climate Change said last fall, in a submission to the wildlife management board, that the
Inuit position is “inconsistent with the federal listing of the polar bear as a species of special concern in Canada.”

That tone-deaf response simply reinforces the Inuit belief that governments value the lives of polar bears more than they value the lives of human beings.

The most serious consequence of all this, perhaps, is that in Nunavut and other parts of the Arctic, there’s little support for the cause of reducing the greenhouse gas emissions that produce climate change.

For example, the Nunavut government has finally accepted the Trudeau government’s carbon tax—but in a spirit of grudging reluctance. And that’s only because GN officials have agreed to be bribed with the carbon tax cash that Ottawa plans to extract from Nunavut consumers.

The polar bear didn’t bring much in the way of good news last year. But it did bring real news, and continued to raise issues that we’ll be arguing about for years to come. For that reason, we name the polar bear as our top newsmaker of 2018.

https://nunatsiaq.com/stories/article/meet-our-newsmaker-of-the-year-the-polar-bear/

Pay no attention to those polar bears eating your neighbors. They're endangered. Threatened. They must be protected!!!
capseeboy

Social climber
portland, oregon
Jan 3, 2019 - 07:46am PT
Dick Cheney is famously quoted as saying that if there is even a “one percent” chance a risk could be related to terrorism (the famous “one percent doctrine”) you can invade another country and start a war (even if it turns out to be the WRONG country)

Thank you for your good memory, mine does not work so well for fine structure details, but it does remember the Big picture ---follow the $$$ is easy to remember.

Hollywood isn't known for for truth or facts; never the less, the movie Vice does have some historical facts thrown into it.
[Click to View YouTube Video]

Some Americans hold fast to the belief that the government is not above the law. Unfortunately, the lawyers interpret the constitution to enable our dictators to do what ever they want to do. Party politics beneath their surfaces still do the bidding of Big Business. The hyperbole is a cultivated distraction to keep the general public's attention off of following the $$$. America will soon be under martial law to maintain civil order because its' citizens are going to be too busy scapegoating each other instead of following the $$$.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 5, 2019 - 10:47pm PT
In the arcane language of bureaucracy, they admit that “the polar bear may have exceeded the co-existence threshold of Nunavummiut.”

coexistence, the human population of Nunavut has doubled since 1991, while the region has the least dense population in the world, increasing the number of humans puts pressure on the bears.

There are about 16,000 polar bears in all of Canada, split between Nunavut and the Northwest Territories. In 1991 there were 22,000 people living in Nunavut, now 38,000.

Polar bear monitoring 2009

The increased population correlates with the increased seal population, so the question is a bit more complicated regarding the effect of climate change.

Minerals

Social climber
The Deli
Jan 6, 2019 - 09:16am PT

[Click to View YouTube Video]

Hugh Montgomery: Are Humans Like a Virus on Planet Earth?

The talk goes until about 38:30; the rest is Q&A.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Jan 6, 2019 - 09:20am PT
Climate change deniers are for the most part uneducated people with a right wing bent.

That demographic doesn’t read, and gets most of its news from social media. They are susceptible to fake news. I think it was Limbaugh who convinced them to not trust good newspapers and non partisan news outlets.

Trump, in a hundred years, will be regarded as the festering sore that finally broke out after a long disease. He is mental Herpes, a liar and crook.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Jan 6, 2019 - 09:25am PT
As for polar bears and drilling, it isn’t allowed close to dens. Hence polar bear hazing. They run off any bear with a helicopter. No sh#t.

I did a lot of study on north slope drilling.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Jan 6, 2019 - 11:35am PT
Don't know about that Base.

It may not be complete denial but refusal to consider any climate mitigation seems universal among republicans. That includes a lot of middle class college education types.

The republican identity politics does not allow for any engagement on the issue.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Jan 6, 2019 - 10:23pm PT
Every two or three years it gets worse.

Boiling frog syndrome. There doesn't have to be a tipping point.

I think the best hope is to get people to think more about their grandkids and great grandkids.

Because even a moon shot program won't show results, and it won't pay for itself, in the remaining lifetimes of those making the decision.

Or get the Duck to convince everyone they are going to be reincarnated.

And as you can probably guess, I'll take the over on the temperature rise.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 6, 2019 - 11:29pm PT
[Click to View YouTube Video]
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Jan 7, 2019 - 07:20am PT
Humanity is facing the final, western corporate capitalist, fossil fuel initiated, catastrophic Arctic methane hydrate destabilization and Permian style methane blowout - firestorm that will culminate in 1 to 8 years (2020 to 2027).

We will all be boiled alive like lobsters in a massively humid atmosphere and converted into stardust.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 7, 2019 - 08:59am PT
Malemute

Noam Chomsky: The Future of Organized Human Life Is At Risk Thanks to GOP's Climate Change Denial

Yeah. Let's put it all on the GOP.

No doubt, there'd be no risk if not for those nasty old Republicans.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Jan 7, 2019 - 09:33am PT
Anybody watch 60 Minutes last night?

There be some hope.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Jan 7, 2019 - 10:18am PT
Yeah. Let's put it all on the GOP.

No doubt, there'd be no risk if not for those nasty old Republicans.

Ok, so they aren't the only bad guys in town. Since Hitler wasn't entirely responsible for all the atrocities of WWII, we will give him a pass?

It is almost impossible to find any Republican Senators or House members that will go on camera saying climate change is a serious issue that the country needs to address.
Gunks Ray

Trad climber
Gunks
Jan 8, 2019 - 11:15am PT
After three years of decline, carbon emissions rose sharply in the US in 2018

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/08/politics/us-carbon-emissions-rise-2018/index.html

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46801108

U.S. carbon emissions rose sharply in 2018, even as coal plants closed. One big reason: the growing economy. nyti.ms/2CWSctO
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
Jan 9, 2019 - 06:43pm PT
Did you all see CBS News today about the 101 yr old inventor?

Why not carbon sequestration through cryogenics, some cryogenic method? CO2 sublimes at −78.5 °C (−109.3 °F) after all, what am I missing here?

Will have to investigate...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/charlie-bliss-climage-change-plan-101-year-old-inventor/
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 9, 2019 - 09:44pm PT
how many watts to refrigerate?
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
Jan 10, 2019 - 07:44am PT
Good question. I imagine were it to work, it would be at some reduced efficiency? and probably quite constrained in application. Still, with CO2's relatively high sublimation temp, it's a tantalizing consideration. 60 Minutes last week had a similarly interesting story - that one about an older amateur scientist / inventor attempting to break down cellulose efficiently into usable product.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 10, 2019 - 08:33am PT
These are all nice stories,
all of these ideas have been worked on in some detail for a while.

Not saying people shouldn't be thinking up schemes, but they shouldn't be surprised
if someone else had thought them up previously. A real shame that we don't usually
publish articles about "failed" ideas.

Minerals

Social climber
The Deli
Jan 10, 2019 - 09:23am PT
I know an old lady
She swallowed a fly
But I don't know why
She swallow the fly

I guess she'll die

I know an old lady
Who swallow a spider
It wiggled and jiggled
And tickled inside her

She swallowed a spider
To catch the fly
But I don't know why
She swallowed the fly

I guess she'll die

I know and old lady
Who swallowed a bird
Isn't that absurd
To swallow a bird?

She swallowed the bird
To catch the spider
Who wiggled and jiggled
And tickled inside her

She swallowed the spider
To catch the fly
But I don't know why
She swallowed a fly

I guess she'll die

I know and old lady
Who swallowed a cat
Just imagine that
She swallowed a cat

She swallowed the cat
To catch the bird
She swallowed the bird
To catch the spider
Who wiggled and jiggled
And tickled inside her
And she swallowed the spider
To catch the fly
But I don't know why
She swallowed the fly

I guess she'll die

I know an old lady who swallowed a dog
Ooh, what a hog
She swallowed the dog
She swallowed the dog
To catch the cat
She swallowed the cat
To catch the bird
And she swallowed the bird
To catch the spider
Who wiggled and jiggled
And tickled inside her
And she swallowed the spider
To catch the fly
But I don't know why
She swallowed the fly

I guess she'll die

I know an old lady
Who swallowed a goat
She just opened her throat
And swallowed a goat
She swallowed the goat
To catch the dog
She swallowed the dog
To catch the cat
She swallowed the cat
To catch the bird
And she swallowed the bird
To catch the spider
Who wiggled and jiggled
And tickled inside her
And she swallowed the spider
To catch the fly
But I don't know why
She swallowed the fly

I guess she'll die

And I knew an old lady
Who swallowed a minister
Isn’t that sinister?
To swallow a minister
She swallowed a minister
To catch the goat
And she swallowed a goat
To catch the dog
And she swallowed a dog
To catch the cat
She swallowed the cat
To catch the bird
And she swallowed the bird
To catch the spider
That wiggled and jiggled
And tickled inside her
And she swallowed the spider
To catch the fly
But I don't know why
She swallowed the fly

I guess she'll die

I know an old lady
Who swallowed a rhinoceros
Isn't that preposterous!
To swallow a rhinoceros
She swallowed a rhinoceros
To catch the minister
She swallowed the minister
To catch the goat
She swallowed the goat
To catch the dog
She swallowed the dog
To catch the cat
She swallowed the cat
To catch the bird
And she swallowed a bird
To catch the spider
That wiggled and jiggled
And tickled inside her
And she swallowed the spider
To catch the fly
But I don't know why
She swallowed the fly

I guess she'll die

I know an old lady
Who swallowed a horse...
She's dead of course
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Jan 21, 2019 - 09:59pm PT
That article about carbon tax
(although not about a revenue neutral tax)
does have a good point. The simpleton deniers are able to campaign based on lies and often win.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-divisive-carbon-prices-are-much-ado-about-nothing/
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Jan 22, 2019 - 12:12pm PT
CO2 is actually expensive and useful in oil production. It is miscible with oil at relatively low pressures. Companies now hook into methanol plants and buy their emissions to recover much more oil in place than saltwater floods.

Regular power plant emissions aren’t pure enough.

There are vast pressure depleted gas reservoirs that could be used for sequestration. It would not be cheap, though. Our only real solution is to halt most of our emissions. That will never happen while oil is the cheapest and most dense form of energy. We are all guilty.

You can’t just grow more trees. When organic material decomposes, all of that carbon simply releases back into the atmosphere. Nature has sequestered carbon in the form of carbonate rocks. Prior to the evolution of photosynthesis we had a CO2 rich atmosphere. Like the white cliffs of Dover, tremendous amounts of carbon are permanently tied up in limestones. CaCO3.

That is a slow process, though, and we are emitting more carbon than the oceans can tie up.

Basically, our grandchildren are screwed. In the far future, oil will have run out. The damage will have already been done, though.

Climate change deniers are just like those who put complete faith in creationism. They are hopelessly blind.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 22, 2019 - 12:16pm PT
The simpleton deniers are able to campaign based on lies and often win.

How about that.... all those simpleton deniers getting the better of the best and brightest of the scientific community.
Gunks Ray

Trad climber
Gunks
Jan 22, 2019 - 01:38pm PT

How about that.... all those simpleton deniers getting the better of the best and brightest of the scientific community.

It's usually pretty easy to win an argument if your side is telling people exactly what they wanted to hear anyway.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 23, 2019 - 07:29am PT
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 23, 2019 - 07:34am PT

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s December coal output climbed 2.1 percent from the year before, government data showed, hitting the highest level in over three years as major miners ramped up production amid robust winter demand and after the country started up new mines.

Cranes unload coal from a cargo ship at a port in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China December 8, 2018. Picture taken December 8, 2018. REUTERS/Stringer

Miners produced 320.38 million tonnes of coal in December, according to data released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics. That is the largest volume since June, 2015.

China approved more than 45 billion yuan’s ($6.64 billion)worth of new coal mining projects last year, much more than 2017, official documents show.

That came after the country closed old and more-polluting coal mines as part of its battle to clean up the environment.

“Coal mining capacity coming online will lead to another increase in output this year after boosting December output to a more than three-year high,” said a Beijing-based coal analyst with a major broker. He declined to be identified as he was not authorised by his company to speak to media on the matter.

The new projects stoked overall coal output last year, with annual production rising 5.2 percent to the highest since 2015 at 3.55 billion tonnes.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-economy-output-coal/chinas-coal-output-hits-highest-in-over-3-years-as-mines-start-up-idUKKCN1PF0DI
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 23, 2019 - 07:37am PT
since when does a cartoon substitute for actual science?

capseeboy

Social climber
portland, oregon
Jan 23, 2019 - 11:52am PT
The concern is too late and too little to change our Neanderthal consumer desires and habits. An environmental ethic is a relatively new ethic compared to say a two thousand year old Christian morale ethic. It turns into finger pointing one-upmanship. Were doomed. Cheers.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 29, 2019 - 07:04am PT
Donald J. Trump

In the beautiful Midwest, windchill temperatures are reaching minus 60 degrees, the coldest ever recorded. In coming days, expected to get even colder. People can’t last outside even for minutes. What the hell is going on with Global Warming? Please come back fast, we need you!

Brrrr
monolith

climber
state of being
Jan 29, 2019 - 07:39am PT
Still funny.

EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 29, 2019 - 08:07am PT
"Do as I say, not as I do" is always good for a laugh.

Experts have predicted up to 1,500 individual private jets flights will be made in and out of this year’s Davos summit, despite hosting a series of talks on the dangers of man-made climate change.

The World Economic Forum (WEF)’s annual meeting of global leaders is taking place in the Swiss resort town this week, with David Attenborough attending to offer a stark assessment of global warming trends.

But the Air Charter Service (ACS), a company arranging flights around the world, has estimated there could be a record number of carbon-emitting private jet flights in and out of Davos for the duration of the event.

The previous high was recorded at the 2018 summit.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 29, 2019 - 08:44am PT
^^^ That’s nothing compared to the large jet traffic occassioned by the really big global warming conferences held all over the world all the time where 10x as many people show up to hand wring and party up a storm. Oh, and come up with new regulations to ensure their job security.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Jan 29, 2019 - 10:28am PT
^^^ That's nothing compared to the hot air blown by 10000X as many deniers who propose no solution since their thought process does not extend beyond blaming the problem on someone else.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Jan 29, 2019 - 11:29am PT
And instead of whining about the jet travel of people who are concerned about climate change, we need a carbon tax to actually change people's behavior.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Feb 1, 2019 - 07:25am PT
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/polar-vortex-by-the-numbers-6-states-in-us-record-temperatures-lower-than-south-pole/70007296

Records have been shattered as the polar vortex unleashed the harshest cold in years on the midwestern United States during the final days of January.

After the polar vortex plunged southward, temperatures plummeted under 20 below zero F from North Dakota to northern Illinois during the morning hours of both Wednesday and Thursday.

The low of 38 below zero recorded at Mt. Carroll, Illinois, is being reviewed by a state climate extremes committee to determine if the Illinois state record low was broken on Thursday morning. The current record is 36 below zero that was set near Congerville on Jan. 5, 1999.
monolith

climber
state of being
Feb 1, 2019 - 08:02am PT
Australia recorded its hottest month ever in January

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-47085785

Australia recorded its hottest month ever in January, with average temperatures exceeding 30C (86F) for the first time.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology, the extreme heat was "unprecedented" during the country's summer period.

At least five January days were among the 10 warmest on record, with daily national temperature highs of 40C.

The heat has caused wildfire deaths, bushfires and a rise in hospital admissions.
TLP

climber
Feb 1, 2019 - 01:02pm PT
It's an interesting item, I'd like to delve into the details that support their assessment of the number of people who were exterminated and died from disease and displacement, and the research that would support that amount of reforestation. It's seemingly plausible, but one likes to read the background supporting stuff.

Flipping it around the other way, the mind-boggling amount of forest removal at the present time is not only a lot of greenhouse gas source, but also removal of a very large sink. We're kind of toast, literally, without some response pretty darn soon. It's certainly true a lot of tropical forest could be reestablished, but the economics and population pressures and will to do that make it extremely unlikely on the timeline that is needed.
Climberdude

Trad climber
Clovis, CA
Feb 1, 2019 - 01:15pm PT
You can go to the original article, which was published in Quarternary Science Reviews, a peer-reviewed journal, from the CNN article. It is a very fascinating article. In terms of the commonperson's understanding of the effect of human activity on the climate, I find this to be even more alarming than other observations.
Gunks Ray

Trad climber
Gunks
Feb 1, 2019 - 01:52pm PT
European colonizers killed so many Native Americans that it changed the global climate, researchers say

"For once, we've been able to balance all the boxes and realize that the only way the Little Ice Age was so intense is ... because of the genocide of millions of people,"

A small shift in temperatures -- about a 10th of a degree in the 17th century -- led to colder winters, frosty summers and failing harvests, Koch said.

My college anthropology professor taught our class that diseases introduced by the Europeans to the Native Americans killed as many as 100 million Native Americans and that was the cause of the little ice age, he taught that over 35 years ago. It made sense to me then, and that was long before almost anybody was aware of the concept of global warming.

When the earliest Dutch and Portuguese explorers traveled along the North Atlantic coast of the USA in the 1500's they were often afraid to come ashore because of the many warlike tribes of Native Americans that populated these lands, they weren't welcomed. By the time the Pilgrims arrived in the early 1600's lands were mostly empty with in many cases 80% of the local Native Americans having died from disease.
Climberdude

Trad climber
Clovis, CA
Feb 1, 2019 - 02:06pm PT
The theory of climate change has been around a lot longer than 35 years (contrary to what some oil companies would want you to believe). From Wikipedia:

However, in 1899 Thomas Chrowder Chamberlin developed at length the idea that changes in climate could result from changes in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide.[12]

In 1967, taking advantage of the ability of digital computers to integrate absorption curves numerically, Syukuro Manabe and Richard Wetherald made the first detailed calculation of the greenhouse effect incorporating convection (the "Manabe-Wetherald one-dimensional radiative-convective model").[13][14] They found that, in the absence of unknown feedbacks such as changes in clouds, a doubling of carbon dioxide from the current level would result in approximately 2 °C increase in global temperature.
TLP

climber
Feb 5, 2019 - 08:31am PT
Thanks all for the interesting posts. The way I learned it, it was Arrhenius who was the first to publish the concept that CO2 emissions would cause an increase in global temperatures. And indeed this appears to be the case: his papers on it are dated 1896, a hair earlier than the 1899 cited just above. He was an amazing scientist all around, well deserving of the Nobel Prize. Props to everyone who has contributed to advancing climate science then and now.
Tricouni

Mountain climber
Glenn Woodsworth, Vancouver BC
Feb 5, 2019 - 11:12am PT
For a good history of the discovery of global warming, see
https://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm#contents
seano

Mountain climber
none
Feb 6, 2019 - 07:09am PT
Glaciers: see 'em while you can... https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/04/world/asia/himalayas-glaciers-warming.html

It's bad enough for visiting mountaineers, but so much worse for people whose lives depend upon glacier-fed streams.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Feb 6, 2019 - 07:55am PT
Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene

https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252


August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Feb 10, 2019 - 10:33pm PT
Yes because if we admit the problem then we admit that possibly, maybe we sort of need to do something about it.

Much safer to attack and denigrate any politician trying to start a conversation on it.
kunlun_shan

Mountain climber
SF, CA
Feb 13, 2019 - 09:20am PT
Great article by Naomi Klein on the Green New Deal:

https://theintercept.com/2019/02/13/green-new-deal-proposal/
Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Feb 13, 2019 - 10:30am PT
Mentioned up thread, I believe. How do you control the Chi-coms?

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45640706

They LAUGH at any "green new deal."

BAd
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Feb 13, 2019 - 11:08am PT
Did someone mention Naomi Klein? For those who are interested in gaining some insight into current events, check out Naomi Klein's 2007 "Shock Doctrine"
http://www.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2007/sep/15/politics

Only a crisis—actual or perceived—produces real change.

Disorientation is Delibreate

https://www.bustle.com/p/4-things-the-shock-doctrine-illuminates-about-the-trump-presidency-43809

Trump is the Schlock Doctrine...
[Click to View YouTube Video]
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Feb 14, 2019 - 08:29am PT
Camp Century Ice Core...
http://www.iceandclimate.nbi.ku.dk/about_centre/history/Langway_2008_The_history_of_early_polar_ice_cores.pdf


Camp Century aka Project Iceworm...was the code name for a top secret United States Army program of the Cold War, which aimed to build a network of mobile nuclear missile launch sites under the Greenland ice sheet. The ultimate objective of placing medium-range missiles under the ice — close enough to strike targets within the Soviet Union — was kept secret from the Government of Denmark. To study the feasibility of working under the ice, a highly publicized "cover" project, known as Camp Century, was launched in 1960.[1] Unstable ice conditions within the ice sheet caused the project to be canceled in 1966.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Iceworm

[Click to View YouTube Video]


seano

Mountain climber
none
Feb 14, 2019 - 08:38am PT
Interesting map of what various cities will be like in 2080 if things continue apace: https://fitzlab.shinyapps.io/cityapp/

Based on this Nature paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08540-3

Sure looks grim for the Rockies and Southwest.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Feb 17, 2019 - 08:26am PT
TED Talk by glaciologist Kristin Poinar discussing numerical simulation of crevasse aquifers within the Greenland Ice Sheet...

[Click to View YouTube Video]
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Feb 17, 2019 - 08:32pm PT
The complete loss of ice on the Arctic Ocean could mean as much as 16 C (29 F) rise in temperatures in Greenland within as little as 10 years; leading to the complete loss of glaciers there:

[Click to View YouTube Video]

Wikipedia says 8 C (14.4 F) over a period of 40 years is more typical:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard%E2%80%93Oeschger_event
neebee

Social climber
calif/texas
Feb 17, 2019 - 10:37pm PT
hey there say, tuolumne_tradster... say, the TED talk on greenland, was
very interesting...

thank you for sharing... :)

as to the next poster, cliff:
did not see the next video, yet... will try to, soon...

:)
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Feb 18, 2019 - 01:11pm PT
The first report warning about climate change was sent to President Johnson in 1965. In the 54 years since, we've made essentially no progress.

I'm pretty pessimistic but that overstates it a bit.

Because of worries about climate change, solar power windmills, and electric cars got enough subsidies to be competitive much sooner than they would have otherwise.

Without climate change worries, Europe and America would be building more coal plants.

Our progress is nowhere on the scale it needs to be to address the problem. However, coal and oil are fairly cheap to extract. If the world had truly continued on a 'business as usual' scenario since 1965, things would be even worse than they are now.

So we've taken some 'baby steps' to address the problem. But when I look into my crystal ball to predict what is going to happen in the short to medium term, I don't see anything more substantial than 'baby steps'.
eeyonkee

Trad climber
Golden, CO
Feb 19, 2019 - 09:23am PT
That last cartoon pretty much summarizes the climate deniers. I was just at a dinner party where I was talking with a retired Colorado University engineering professor who described himself as a climate skeptic rather than a denier, as if that made much difference. What he definitely wasn't was an "alarmist" as he explained.

The only thing that doesn't ring true is the last panel in the cartoon strip. I personally don't think that climate deniers and skeptics will admit that they were wrong in the face of any future evidence, including the dire effects from climate change.

By nature humans aren't good at thinking long-term. It has to be learned.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Feb 19, 2019 - 11:05am PT
I don't think many climate deniers will admit they are wrong either. If it becomes inescapable to conclude that something should have been done, they will pretend that they always agreed with that.

But I do hope that some of the climate deniers that posts on sites like this one have grand kids. And when they tell their grand kids they were actually one of the ones concerned about climate change, their grand kids can track down their posts and declare bull *** on them.*


*Take life's little victories where you can find them.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Feb 19, 2019 - 02:06pm PT
RE: "baby steps"

On a national level, I'd say these are quite tiny steps.
The theory of baby steps assumes there is an overall ultimate goal. Much of the US does not have any such goal. Only a few green states, who are acting unilaterally to drive up their own costs.

The average fuel economy of light duty vehicles has risen only from 19.5mpg in 1991 to 22mpg in 2016. A pitifully small increase. It actually decreased from 1986 to 2007.
https://www.bts.gov/content/average-fuel-efficiency-us-light-duty-vehicles
https://www.treehugger.com/cars/90-years-us-fuel-economy-data-shows-power-incentives.html
http://www.umich.edu/~umtriswt/EDI_sales-weighted-mpg.html
http://www.umich.edu/~umtriswt/PDF/SWT-2017-5.pdf
The increase from 1973 to 1988 was mostly due to increased cost of oil.
Some of these data is the average for the entire fleet (not the same as the latest model year).


The decrease in coal energy in most areas is largely due to cheaper natural gas plants & fracking. Yet the leaks and impacts of natural gas production are even more hidden than those of coal, and remain unaccounted for.
tuolumne_tradster

Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
Feb 20, 2019 - 08:01pm PT
GoPro7 time lapse of rock - ice - water interaction at 1 atmposphere during heating by a distant fusion source...
[Click to View YouTube Video]

Rock sample is pre-Cambrian Pinto Gneiss from Joshua Tree
Time lapse compresses 2 hours of images taken every 0.5 second into ~ 1 minute video.

Note how melt front expands outward from the rock to meet the melt interface that is moving inward from the concrete bird bath rim. The rock sinks as the ice melts downward.

Here is the same set up showing GoPro7 camera in bird bath with meta-chert rock sample...
Minerals

Social climber
The Deli
Feb 21, 2019 - 02:26pm PT

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2019/feb/21/philadelphia-covanta-incinerator-recyclables-china-ban-imports
Minerals

Social climber
The Deli
Feb 22, 2019 - 05:10pm PT

^^^ Ha... Read that one yesterday. Lousy writing, and the dude can’t do basic math, but the message is there.

This one, from a couple of years ago, is a little bit better.

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170418-how-western-civilisation-could-collapse
yosemite 5.9

climber
santa cruz
Feb 25, 2019 - 07:48pm PT








California has always had fuel for forest fires. Global warming probably has less to do with the degree of damage from recent fires than does the populating of forested areas, lazy utility companies and people who don't want their trees trimmed even if near the power lines.

Only recently in our Santa Cruz Mountains have residents in general realized the need to trim their trees, after the disastrous fires in recent years.

What about China, India and other countries that seem to pollute? Do you remember the bad air during the Olympics in China?

Have you ever been cold? Really, really cold? Have you ever experienced temperatures below zero Farenheit? Have you experienced frostbite? I have. Many people, plants and animals die during harsh winters. In the 1970's scientists thought we were entering a new ice age. They were obviously wrong. But harsh winters are indeed dangerous.

Also, people build on the beaches of the oceans!!! How stupid can they be? And they seem offended by a hurricane and then want government help.

Yes, the climate seems to be warmer. Some of it may have to do with increased solar activity as documented by NASA. But some of the damages that are blamed on it are also connected to a lot of foolish behavior.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Feb 26, 2019 - 06:51am PT
The Trump administration is planning to create an ad hoc group of federal scientists to reassess and counter the government's conclusions on climate change, The Washington Post reported Sunday.

The National Security Council (NSC) initiative would feature scientists who challenge the seriousness of climate change and the degree to which humans are the cause of climate problems, three unidentified administration officials told the Post.

The Post reported that the plan was discussed by administration officials on Friday in the White House Situation Room.

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/431330-white-house-committee-to-reassess-climate-science-conclusions
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Feb 26, 2019 - 10:49am PT
^^^ what sketch means is trumpy has appointed a 3 ring circus of anti-science denialist kook clowns whose wisdom comes from drinking tar ball cocktails from oil field spills.

Willam Happer chief idiot denier: "“It’s not a pollutant at all," Happer says of CO2. "We should be telling the scientific truth, that more CO2 is actually a benefit to the earth.”

Happer, 79, has a long list of scientific papers in distinguished journals on optics and atomic physics, but has no training on climate science and has never published a paper in a peer-reviewed journal on climate change.

“Happer would be a fringe figure even for climate skeptics,” said retired U.S. Navy Rear Adm. David Titley, now a professor of meteorology at Pennsylvania State University.

Even Judith Curry (who has devoted years to "skepticism") thinks Happer is a nutjob.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/02/trump-presidential-climate-security-committee/
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Feb 26, 2019 - 11:02am PT
California has always had fuel for forest fires. Global warming probably has less to do with the degree of damage from recent fires than does the populating of forested areas, lazy utility companies and people who don't want their trees trimmed even if near the power lines.

Absolutely. There is just no way that climate change made any difference. I'm sure it was a total coincidence that Paradise CA had received just 0.88 inches of rain between May 1 and Nov 8 (the start of the fire) compared with a historical average of over 7 inches during the same period. Not that having less than 1/7 of the rainfall is a concern. It's all the fault of PG&E.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/11/09/weather-climate-behind-blazing-inferno-that-wrecked-paradise/?utm_term=.d1fda8479a29
TLP

climber
Feb 26, 2019 - 08:16pm PT
The Earth has always had CO2 in the atmosphere. Global warming has everything to do with lazy people who don’t want to get better mileage in their SUVs even if it’s rapidly ruining the global environment.

Only recently in the U.S. have people in general realized the need to do something about it, after disastrous events clearly linked to ongoing global warming.

What about China, India and other countries that definitely pollute a lot (too)? Definitely a problem, but how likely does it seem that they’ll make significant reductions in emissions if countries like the U.S. don’t take a leadership role in making our own significant reductions?

Have you ever been hot? Really, really hot? Have you ever experienced temperatures exceeding 125 degrees F? Have you experienced heatstroke? I have. Many people, plants, and animals die during extreme heat waves. Arrhenius showed all the way back in 1896 that increase in CO2 driven by industrialization would cause the global climate to get warmer. He was obviously right. Increase in global temperature, and more importantly the alterations of climatic patterns that result from it (including polar cold where it previously rarely occurred), is indeed dangerous.

Also, people try to claim that the temperature increase may have to do with increased solar activity (even though numerous scientific publications and the NASA web site show this is false). How stupid can they be? And they seem offended when they are urged to actually learn the science and adapt their opinions to it.

Yes, the climate is definitely, unequivocally, significantly warmer. And nearly ALL of it has to do with human activity as documented in hundreds of peer reviewed scientific publications. And yes, a lot of the damages it causes result from climate change denying politicians (curiously enough, every one of them Republican) in, say, coastal states like Florida and North Carolina refusing to institute local policies that would reduce the public’s exposure to the increased risks.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Feb 27, 2019 - 11:40am PT
House Republicans managed to quash Democrats' hearing on climate change on Tuesday by outvoting the majority party at the poorly attended event, forcing it to adjourn only minutes after it began.

The hearing of the House Natural Resources panel was to be the latest to dive into climate change since Democrats took control of the House last month, bringing new attention to the issue they complained Republicans had ignored during their eight years leading the chamber. The hearing was designed to probe the "denial playbook" that Democrats say fossil fuel backers have copied from cigarette companies — the same tactics used by opioid makers and the National Football League to dispute strong scientific evidence.


But Texas Republican Rep. Louie Gohmert — a staunch conservative who has claimed warm temperatures during the Viking age disproved climate change science — took issue with notion that the topic was within the panel's jurisdiction. He quickly motioned to adjourn the hearing before the witnesses could even deliver their opening statements.

That motion quickly passed, with the four Republicans present outvoting the two Democrats in the room, including Oversight and Investigations subcommittee Chairman T.J. Cox.

Derp
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Mar 1, 2019 - 09:28pm PT
Thanks for the excellent links Malemute. Arctic News thinks it may happen much faster:

A rise of 18°C or 32.4°F by 2026?
A catastrophe of unimaginable proportions is unfolding. Life is disappearing from Earth and all life could be gone within one decade. Study after study is showing the size of the threat, yet many people seem out to hide what we're facing.

In the Arctic alone, four tipping points look set to be crossed within a few years:

Loss of the Arctic sea ice's ability to act as a buffer to absorb incoming ocean heat
Loss of Arctic sea ice's ability to reflect sunlight back into space (albedo)
Destabilization of sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean
Permafrost melt

Crossing these tipping points triggers a number of feedbacks to kick in, including even more absorption of heat by the Arctic Ocean, further changes to the Jet Stream resulting in even more extreme weather, seafloor methane release, water vapor feedback and emissions from land such as CH₄ (methane), N₂O (nitrous oxide) and NOx (nitrogen oxide), due to permafrost melt, storms and forest fires. Temperatures also threaten to rise strongly over the next few years as sulfate cooling falls away while more black carbon and brown carbon gets emitted as more wood gets burned and more forest fires occur.

A recent study points at yet another tipping point, i.e. the disappearance of marine stratus clouds, which could result in a global temperature rise of eight degrees Celsius (8°C or 14.4°F) . In the model used in the study, the tipping point starts to occur at 1,200 ppm CO₂e, i.e. a stack of greenhouse gases including CH₄, N₂O, CO₂ and H₂O.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
TLP

climber
Mar 2, 2019 - 09:26am PT
all life could be gone within one decade.
As someone who is completely convinced of the reality of climate change and the drastic disruptions of the human and biological realms, I find it counterproductive that anyone who's trying to achieve anything would write such drivel, and wouldn't waste an instant reading the rest of it for that reason. Come on, how is even drastic climate change going to alter the environment around deep sea hydrothermal vents so much that all of the multicellular and bacterial life there is extinguished? What about surficial volcanic hot springs and the thermophilic bacteria that thrive in them at temperatures exceeding 100 degrees C? Those are going to be lifeless in 10 years?
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Mar 3, 2019 - 06:16am PT
I was at a conference last week and saw an enlightening talk - wish I could post a couple of the slides.

US CO2 emissions and energy usage are barely 10% of the world total, and have fallen every year since 2008. Asia CO2 emissions and energy usage, meanwhile, have at least doubled and make up more than 60% of the world total.

Where should the energy (so to speak) be focused?
Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Mar 3, 2019 - 06:51am PT
Yep, TLP. That's total counter productive crap. It's very much like religious nut jobs forecasting the END TIMES!

BAd
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Mar 3, 2019 - 07:17pm PT
Asia CO2 emissions and energy usage, meanwhile, have at least doubled and make up more than 60% of the world total.

Thank you. Ever tried to breathe in a Delhi or Bangkok traffic jam amongst tens of thousands of two stroke mopeds and cars without catalytic converters?
TLP

climber
Mar 9, 2019 - 08:04pm PT
Asia CO2 emissions and energy usage, meanwhile, have at least doubled and make up more than 60% of the world total.
Dave, you are entirely correct that the rate of growth in emissions in Asia is a huge concern and may make it pretty much impossible to effectively steer the battleship, but the population of Asian countries combined is about 59.3% of the total, so they'd correctly argue, 60% of world emissions is "fair". US population is less than 4.3% of the total, so it's also a concern that we're responsible for more than double the share of world CO2 emissions that would make sense based on population.

I don't adhere to any of these ways of parsing emissions, but rather I think we need to try to do what's feasible ourselves, making it possible to muster up collective international action by showing some leadership and not mincing a few percent this way or that about some metric or other. As long as a country like the U.S. that has the economic wherewithal to do anything it wants remains a subsidiary that is almost wholly controlled by the fossil fuel industry, the world is utterly screwed. We need to muddle our way out of that condition and accelerate the pace of technological advances and reductions in as many sectors as is feasible, building a foundation from which to take effective action to motivate emissions reductions in Asia. I think the novel idea of taxing stuff based on the emissions it took to create and transport it merits discussion. If that worked across borders, there would be a whole new set of incentives.
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Mar 10, 2019 - 06:55am PT
The entire "argument" about climate change has gone off the rails, it seems to me, and if we (as leaders, wherever they are) were smart, it could be approached differently to get the country back on track without the hate and discontent.

If you could save money at home and at work, would you want to?

I think most people would answer yes to that...

Many large businesses, from Walmart to mining companies are installing renewable energy for the sole purpose of saving money on their power bills... When you pay 25 cents per Kwh, or are operating far from a power supply, it makes sense, eh? So... sell that to thee population, too. Solar is starting to reach parity.

If it is good for the pocketbook, we can get past the hate and denial about climate change...

The arguments about natural gas are similar. It is cheap now. It won't be forever... It really is a bridge fuel...

Use peoples' desire to save money to make change... The whole Green New Deal thing is just going to polarize half the country even more against it...
TLP

climber
Mar 13, 2019 - 09:41am PT
If the younger segment of the population were really, as a whole, that concerned, then how about voting for politicians who will take strong action?

I have no doubt the individuals quoted in the post above are concerned and want to take action; first thing they could do is motivate their fellow younger-age-class voters about it.
TLP

climber
Mar 13, 2019 - 09:20pm PT
I wouldn't say there's any degree of being uninformed or naive on the part of those, especially those who are going to live their whole lives with the consequences, who are protesting and speaking up and raising a ruckus. And I totally think everyone young or older should join in speaking up about it. I just think that in addition, voting, and voting decisively on this issue, is a really important thing to do. Time to motivate, all of us.

I'm looking to replace a seriously aging work truck, and it's really depressing that there's pretty much no viable alternative that's not ICE that has the needed characteristics to be a work truck. There's supposed to be a Tesla truck at some point, and Rivian supposedly has an electric truck coming out next year, but it's not a work truck: there's no option with a bed even as long as 6 feet, let alone the 8' that used to be a standard pickup truck. Truck, folks, it's not a car with a little bitty trunk. If trucks/SUVs weren't excluded from mileage requirements, and those were made more stringent, there'd be a much bigger incentive for manufacturers to offer a sensible vehicle in this category.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Mar 15, 2019 - 06:58am PT
The children are "going on strike"?

Ooooo. That should cause significant economic devastation.

I wonder how all those children will react when they find out Mom's Taxi is closed. No more rides for non-essential activities! Say goodbye to all your electronic toys, too.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Mar 15, 2019 - 10:25am PT
If trucks/SUVs weren't excluded from mileage requirements, and those were made more stringent, there'd be a much bigger incentive for manufacturers to offer a sensible vehicle in this category.

Mandates are better than nothing. But carbon taxes would be more effective and more efficient.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Mar 15, 2019 - 02:38pm PT
The Toyota rav4 2019 with basic AWD gets 30 MPG Combined, 26 City/34 Highway
The hybrid version AWD is rated 39 MPG Combined, 41 City / 37 Highway
which is 30% higher.

Where is the well designed truck hybrid that gets 30% more mpg?
It might be doable, but is the problem the attitude of most truck buyers?
Chaz

Trad climber
Straight Outta Crafton
Mar 15, 2019 - 02:50pm PT
Why aren't more people concerned about it?

I don't know, but they're not. Not according to polling. The Climate ranks last - if it shows at all - when people are asked what they think is important. Climate finishes behind the economy, jobs, and "build the wall" when government priorities are polled.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Mar 15, 2019 - 03:25pm PT
Global Warming = Large hit to economy and jobs, and even causes migration.
These are not separate issues.

https://www.thebalance.com/effects-of-global-warming-on-the-economy-3305692

>> Impact of 2.5 C and 3 C Increase
In 1975, Professor William Nordhaus first warned about the economic impact of global warming. He predicted that doubling carbon dioxide would increase temperatures by 2 C. Temperatures above that level risk hitting a tipping point. A large portion of the polar ice caps would melt, increasing sea levels. This would create a feedback loop that could raise temperature 5 C in the long-term. Instead of heeding Professor Nordhaus's warning, man has allowed temperature increases to accelerate.

In May 2018, Stanford University scientists calculated how much global warming would cost the global economy. If the world's nations adhered to the Paris Climate Agreement, and temperatures only rose 2.5%, then global gross domestic product would fall 15%.

Despite the Paris agreement, most nations aren't doing enough to reduce temperatures by the 2 C target. If they don't improve, scientists predict temperatures will rise to 3 C. If that happens, global GDP would fall 25%.

If nothing is done, temperatures will rise by 4 C by 2100. Global GDP would decline by more than 30% from 2010 levels. That's worse than the Great Depression, where global trade fell 25%. The only difference is that it would be permanent.

>> Impact of a 4 C Increase
In 2014, the World Bank warned that temperatures will increase by 4 C if nothing is done. At that temperature, all the ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica would melt. Sea levels would rise 33 feet.

In 2017, the U.S. National Climate Assessment echoed the World Bank's warning. Average temperatures would increase up to 10 F by 2100. The Arctic would see an average temperature increase of 18 F. That would increase sea levels by 8 feet, flooding every major coastal city.

Seas would continue to rise by one foot per decade. That's too fast to allow humans to build anew.

The hot temperatures would dry out the land. As a result, California and the Great Plains would experience a new, permanent Dust Bowl. Some areas would experience 131-degree heat waves. Wildfires would burn 64 times as much as it did in 2018.

The United Nations warned of the worst famine since 1945. It estimates 20 million people will starve to death or die of dehydration. It reported that one in every nine people are already facing hunger. That figure is climbing due to global warming. Drought is killing crops and drying up water sources. This is creating a global security threat, particularly in North Africa. People are migrating to survive. Disengaged youth are particularly vulnerable to radicalization.

The damage would exceed $600 trillion, double the total wealth of everyone on the planet. That would shrink the global economy by 20% from what it is today.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Mar 15, 2019 - 03:27pm PT
https://www.skepticalscience.com/study-carbon-taxes-wont-hamper-economy.html


Global warming will depress economic growth
https://www.skepticalscience.com/gw-depress-econ-growth-trump-country.html

TLP

climber
Mar 15, 2019 - 08:47pm PT
is the problem the attitude of most truck buyers?

No. Maybe some, but an SUV has insufficient cargo capacity (weight, space) for a whole lot of things you use a work truck for. Also, no soccer mom SUV can handle the difficult terrain that many truck users drive on a regular basis. In fact, it's only a limited selection of trucks that can either.

The promising concept is the one used by the Chevy Volt, which also harkens back to heavy mining or earthmoving equipment of decades ago: electric motors, with an on-board fossil fuel generator. This ratchets your mileage up a lot, without sacrificing range or ability to work in remote locations with few or no charging opportunities. All electric or fuel cells or whatever is the longterm solution, but in between, electric with onboard generator is the way. There is a truck built on this concept, but we need a range of them.
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Mar 16, 2019 - 08:29am PT
^^^ years ago?

Still in use... Because battery technology can't handle large loads for more than a couple hours, and costs 2x diesel.

EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Mar 16, 2019 - 08:52am PT
Trucks are getting bigger and bigger. Few are used for their designed purpose. They're just large cars. Luxury items.

We should go back to raising CAFE standards and apply those standards to ALL non-commercial vehicles.
formerclimber

Boulder climber
CA
Mar 16, 2019 - 08:59am PT
Dave, you are entirely correct that the rate of growth in emissions in Asia is a huge concern and may make it pretty much impossible to effectively steer the battleship, but the population of Asian countries combined is about 59.3% of the total, so they'd correctly argue, 60% of world emissions is "fair". US population is less than 4.3% of the total, so it's also a concern that we're responsible for more than double the share of world CO2 emissions that would make sense based on population.
Well then, clearly, overpopulation in these countries is as much of a problem as US high consumption.
They should start cutting on their overpopulation, for starters.


I don't adhere to any of these ways of parsing emissions, but rather I think we need to try to do what's feasible ourselves, making it possible to muster up collective international action by showing some leadership and not mincing a few percent this way or that about some metric or other. As long as a country like the U.S. that has the economic wherewithal to do anything it wants remains a subsidiary that is almost wholly controlled by the fossil fuel industry, the world is utterly screwed. We need to muddle our way out of that condition and accelerate the pace of technological advances and reductions in as many sectors as is feasible, building a foundation from which to take effective action to motivate emissions reductions in Asia. I think the novel idea of taxing stuff based on the emissions it took to create and transport it merits discussion. If that worked across borders, there would be a whole new set of incentives.

Great, choke already struggling people with more taxes, while jobs keep going away to China/workforce here is no longer cheap enough for globalist business. And you'll get either Hitler or Lenin win the next election here.
formerclimber

Boulder climber
CA
Mar 16, 2019 - 09:12am PT
I wonder why people keep buying homes in Southern latitudes/states in increasing numbers.
Phoenix (!) got real estate boom over the last few years.
It's already unbearably hot and not livable anywhere, say, South of close to Northern California border, but people keep relocating to warmer latitudes, not just in the US.
Aren't they concerned with further temperature increases?


August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Mar 16, 2019 - 09:44am PT
TLP.

I would say the problem is truck buyers.

The problem isn't that SUVs don't meet their needs.

The problem is that the crowd that buys work trucks isn't interested, for the most part, in electric hybrids. So the market is too small to bring electric hybrid work trucks to market.

A lot of identity politics going on. Another example.

It's not that Toyota can't make a competitive full size truck. But a significant number of full size truck buyers would never even consider buying one.
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Mar 16, 2019 - 10:37am PT
Why not?

I'd buy an electric Tacoma if it was offered, and could charge in a reasonable time.

I'd buy electric fleets for my mine... But right now, and for the foreseeable future they can only run for a couple hours before you need to swap batteries or charge. That is not an option in my world. I need 9-10 hours of run time.

Price is also an issue - 2x the cost of current tech is not incentivizing me to buy electric.


TLP

climber
Mar 16, 2019 - 02:02pm PT
Really useful and relevant points being raised here; I agree with just about all of them even though some seem to be opposite to others.

Former, I agree about the population issue and Asia. It's even a bigger one for Africa, which will be severely affected by climate change (already is). My point is, here we are now, what do we do? Individually, as the various nations, and globally. Any approach that just seizes on one or another parameter about emissions is not going to be effective in steering the battleship away from the iceberg.

Your frantic reaction about taxes is a perfect example: nothing should be off the table. You don't seem to have read my comment very closely: if there were a carbon tax that took into account production and transportation, that would avoid exactly the problem you raise. True, labor cost is lower in Asia. But if the carbon cost is way higher, which is also the case, and the cost of transportation across oceans is included, now it might be possible to make some effective changes in the global manufacturing structure that doesn't tend to create exactly the incentive you oppose. It is not easy, but there is no chance of improvement if we don't address all the major contributing factors. It would also be possible to direct 100% (ideally) of that carbon tax to the sector of the population for which it is regressive: eliminate other taxes, EIC, etc. There are lots of pragmatic ways to make it work.

I'm sure there are truck buyers who will never buy a vehicle that doesn't make loud noise and burn a lot of fuel. But there are way more of them, or at least plenty enough to be a market sector, who would be open to a functional hybrid or electric truck that has bed capacity and rough terrain capability. If that vehicle category had to meet some fleet mileage standards, and/or if there were carbon tax, the cost benefit calculation for a more efficient truck makes it feasible to change behavior, even if they cost more.

There's me, and there's Dave just above, and I'm sure a lot of others. I'm not sure 9-10 hrs run time is necessary for most applications. Even long haul truckers take breaks. People don't work that long without stopping to eat, there's your recharging time.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Mar 16, 2019 - 03:21pm PT
"Where is the well designed truck hybrid that gets 30% more mpg?
It might be doable, but is the problem the attitude of most truck buyers? "

No. Maybe some, but an SUV has insufficient cargo capacity (weight, space) for a whole lot of things you use a work truck for.

That's not my question. I asked - Where is the truck hybrid that gets 30% more mpg than the cheap ICE version of the same truck?

Also, no soccer mom SUV can handle the difficult terrain that many truck users drive on a regular basis.

Actually very few truck drivers do that on a regular basis. And why is offroading something this country needs to promote?

But there are way more of them, or at least plenty enough to be a market sector, who would be open to a functional hybrid or electric truck that has bed capacity and rough terrain capability. If that vehicle category had to meet some fleet mileage standards, and/or if there were carbon tax, the cost benefit calculation for a more efficient truck makes it feasible to change behavior, even if they cost more.

All of those policy changes have been needed for 30 years, and have been absolutely opposed by deniers and Repubs, as much today as ever.

"We should go back to raising CAFE standards and apply those standards to ALL non-commercial vehicles. "

I agree. And most trucks as used are NOT truly commercial trucks. For starters, any 4 door truck is by definition not a commercial truck. If it really is a commercial truck, you should be subject to commercial truck rules such as keeping a log.

My thoughts of why there are no efficient non commercial trucks in N. America:
1. cheap gas under $10 per gallon
2. cheap gas under $8 per gallon
3. cheap gas under $6 per gallon
4. lax CAFE rules on trucks
5. historically lax pollution rules on trucks compared to cars, which continue to affect attitudes today.
6. negative attitudes of many who are opposed to anything "green," who think they have a "right" to dump their external costs on everyone else.
7. lax rules on sprawl.
TLP

climber
Mar 16, 2019 - 04:21pm PT
Splater, you're spot on accurate about just about everything. But you're not aware there are lots of jobs requiring a truck that's capable of getting up and down really bad roads; not offroading. Which I agree, there's no reason to promote that.
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Mar 16, 2019 - 05:32pm PT
TLP - For a pickup or big rig, no, you don't need 9 hours run time.

I'm a mine manager, and always looking for new technology. There is equipment coming on the market now for mining equipment, but the batteries only last 2-3 hours, and the gear costs 2x diesel.

Why would I buy that? Its not more productive, it doesn't dig or haul better, and instead of fueling once per shift now I have to swap batteries 3x per shift (i.e. drive the machine to a crane, lift the battery out, put a new one in, then drive back to the production area). That is 30-45 minutes of production time lost at least 2x during a shift.

That is why I would want 9-10 hours of run time to make a battery worth it for my application...

Business isn't fluffy, its all about the economics. If its good for the environment, great, but does it save me money?

Hence my prior post - The Dems and greens could go a loooooooong way to winning hearts and minds if the argument was turned into one around the pocketbook. Why is Walmart putting solar panels on their buildings? Why are mines building solar farms? $$$
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Mar 21, 2019 - 12:13pm PT
Order your copy today!




Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Mar 21, 2019 - 03:52pm PT
^^^ call now! faux spews operators are standing by at all times to take your pledge of allegiance to trolling denialism. Important! plez hep, or else an arc on the moon may die!
TradMike

Trad climber
Cincinnati, Ohio
Mar 21, 2019 - 04:22pm PT
Climate change is rather benign compared to the phytoplankton decline which is caused by the human population explosion. Phytoplankton has decreased in numbers by 40% and it's declining at a rate of 1% per year. You would think they would thrive on more carbon dioxide and warmer temperatures. The only logical explanation to the decline is what has changed in the last 40 years ( explosive population growth). The phytoplankton are responsible for up to 85% of our oxygen. We have 60 years at this rate before most of our oxygen is gone. agricultural runoff sewage and anything else that contributes to nitrates into the oceans will make a different type of killer algae kill off the phytoplankton. That is why I say to hell with climate change we have bigger problems. Reduce the population and all these problems go away. Our economy would suffer but at least we will be able to breathe.

The phytoplankton decline seems to be an analogous to the rapid increase in population in the last 50 years
https://images.app.goo.gl/nB2PkWKcxvN6z6DZ7
TradMike

Trad climber
Cincinnati, Ohio
Mar 21, 2019 - 06:13pm PT
Who's to say that the climate change is not driven by the deforestation of the tropical rain forests. The rain forests put moisture in the air and create clouds which in turn reflect the radiation from heating us up. Back to overpopulation again and using up all of the natural resources that help us. They also make it rain in areas that are now not getting rain. Or maybe it's a natural cycle of an elliptical or wobbling orbit around the sun. Or maybe the sun produce more and less radiation depending on its mood. Lots of unknowns that we are foolish if we think we understand completely.
TradMike

Trad climber
Cincinnati, Ohio
Mar 22, 2019 - 08:11am PT
Clouds do a much better job from keeping the planet from warming up than CO2 and methane warms up the earth in its current concentrations. Where are the compelling cloud cover models? They are just starting and have little data and history. Scientist do say if there are no clouds, the earth would warm by 20 degrees. That is a lot more than a couple degrees by CO2. I agree it doesn't seem to be the Sun or our orbit wobble at the moment causing the small increase in overall temps and probably is CO2 but some scientist disagree so the jury is still out.

Here are some top scientist saying they are not sure if more CO2 will increase or decrease our temps.
https://www.windows2universe.org/earth/climate/warming_clouds_albedo_feedback.html

Seems like the deep state is pushing climate change in the media to push their agenda. It would be more believable if they were actually trying to solve the problem and putting forth solutions and policy to bring those solutions forward. It is very interesting that you see little problem solving and more agenda pushing. That is very telling. The real problem is the population but that wouldn't help their agenda.

The real problem is the explosive population increase as shown below. If you believe CO2 is the culprit you should also believe population increase is to blame. I'd have to say things were great when I was a kid. I could drink out of a river and the summers were nice and we drove around in gas burning cars.
http://www.21stcentech.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Global-population-and-CO2-graph.jpg
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Mar 22, 2019 - 11:06am PT
The real problem are the people that believe the lying liars.

TradMike

Trad climber
Cincinnati, Ohio
Mar 22, 2019 - 12:18pm PT
You used to hear about deforestation causing droughts and less rainfall and clouds. If clouds impact our temperature at a much higher level than CO2 why have the scientists shut up on this topic? Well, the good ones want more data before jumping to conclusions and they are still working diligently. They were all in consensus yesterday on the deforestation problem. The media spewing their agenda has brainwashed way too many people and some of the science community so you think there is a consensus. Hey media go back to reporting on news and offer less opinions and agenda pushing.
https://rainforests.mongabay.com/0902.htm
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Mar 22, 2019 - 12:26pm PT
TradMike,
This is settled science.
Please stop posting this silly denier chat.
We are done discussing these issues with trolls, bots, and loons.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Mar 22, 2019 - 03:44pm PT
Your argument from ignorance is compelling only to noobs.

TradMike,
This is settled science.
Please stop posting this silly denier chat.
We are done discussing these issues with trolls, bots, and loons.

As soon as you post this drivel

<snip>

then I know you are an idiot or an as#@&%e or both

and you get added to my greasemonkey list.

Uh oh...

The mean girls are doing their thing.
TradMike

Trad climber
Cincinnati, Ohio
Mar 22, 2019 - 06:14pm PT
Name calling is the best sign of ignorance. I agree things are heating up and our explosive population growth is causing it. I worry more about the pollution though killing our oxygen source. Tell me how your children feel in 60 years when they can’t breathe and they’re dying on their last breath gasping for air. A little extra heat is nothing compared to not having oxygen. Did you listen to a single thing I said? Go ahead and overpopulate, I really don’t care. Just try trying to help. Wow, this world has gotten crazy. Your feces will kill the phytoplankton and the fertilizers to feed this enormous population will feed the toxic algae. Where do you think that stuff goes (oceans)? I have tried to get a fish tank to survive with plant material to suck up the toxins. It never works. Algae always wins and kills everything. When I was a child I saw no algae in the Oceans. The reefs were beautiful. Now, everywhere I dive algae is everywhere. It is taking over like I have seen in my tanks over and over. You are flirting with disaster and don’t know it. I wish you could see and know what I have learned over the years.
TradMike

Trad climber
Cincinnati, Ohio
Mar 22, 2019 - 06:36pm PT
Maybe some photos of the precursors of collapse will help you undrestand our dire situation

https://goo.gl/images/ZuuXmj

https://goo.gl/images/JbYtNe

https://goo.gl/images/GsbcF8

https://goo.gl/images/DLeh9Z

https://images.app.goo.gl/FBzFoczvSqDFumnS7

https://images.app.goo.gl/ob2iRvWieYWeurKq5

TradMike

Trad climber
Cincinnati, Ohio
Mar 22, 2019 - 06:51pm PT
I want you to be really pissed off and take that rage to make a difference. Turn it away from me and go out tomorrow and preach a sustainable society. There is hope. We can be great. There still is some time left. I truly believe if we can get back to 1970 levels things might be sustainable. It went downhill fast from there. Just understand, nitrates are the biggest concern, then CO2 to a much lesser degree. But if we got to lower population levels and cleaner energy sources things might be okay. Think fusion reactors and keeping the nitrates out of the ocean and maybe a moderate population is okay.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Mar 22, 2019 - 06:59pm PT
Trad Mike...Tanks a lot !
TradMike

Trad climber
Cincinnati, Ohio
Mar 23, 2019 - 11:43am PT
Phase II: Solutions - more to come

We can use old timey solutions. There is a method where you fallow a flield and plant clover which will give great drainage and when you till it in the next year you don’t need much fertilizer. That whole year growing it also sucked out bad stuff from atmosphere. Then used to make more food. Not much running to the ocean. Treat the feces with some other method. In Africa the plants like I mentioned will try to do the job of sucking up the bad stuff (excrement) and they will do the job if the ecrement doesnt exceed what it’s taking out. Then harvest and bury. We just need to give some socialism to our hard working farmers who are our backbone. Pay twice as much so they can make it happen. They are great hard working people who need some help.

https://images.app.goo.gl/4RWgwg3iZujYyN1P8
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Mar 23, 2019 - 01:37pm PT
I want you to be really pissed off and take that rage to make a difference. Turn it away from me and go out tomorrow and preach a sustainable society. There is hope. We can be great. There still is some time left. I truly believe if we can get back to 1970 levels things might be sustainable.

And this is happening. I despair for the small towns, and the small town mentality, like Fresno.

In Los Angeles, we are using the same amount of water as we used in 1970. We will source all water locally by 2045. We now have the goal of eliminating all use of coal as an electricity source, and will achieve that soon. We have diverted 80% of trash from landfills.

It can be done. The technology exists. It's a matter of will.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Mar 23, 2019 - 01:51pm PT
plez don't bite on these idiot troll denials, which excrete denialist nonsense like a dysentery monster, covering all bases with a never-ending stream of diarrhea.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Mar 25, 2019 - 07:13am PT
Despite feeling the pressure of the international youth climate protests, Germany joined with Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic to block an ambitious emissions reduction plan at an EU summit in Brussels today.

But EU leaders will have one more shot to revive the plan at a summit in June.

The European Commission, the EU’s executive, put forward last year a proposal to implement the requirements of the international Paris Agreement by committing to decarbonize the EU by 2050.

The proposal, however, needs to be approved by the EU's 28 national governments.

Poland, which considers itself the leader of a bloc of Eastern European countries resisting what it sees as overly ambitious action against climate change that could damage economic growth, has been lobbying to water down the Commission’s strategy and remove the reference to 2050.

Today, German Chancellor Angela Merkel backed Poland and refused to endorse the 2050 target. The text adopted today also fails to link EU climate action with the Paris objective to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte also joined in blocking the ambition.

Speaking after the summit, French President Emmanuel Macron, who is pushing for the 2050 decarbonization deadline, attacked the text adopted today as a result of German and Polish pressure. Calling it “sorely insufficient”, he said it betrays the young people who have been ditching school and marching in the streets in recent months demanding politicians take action against climate change.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davekeating/2019/03/22/merkel-and-macron-in-battle-over-eu-climate-ambition/#262fb1d06230
TradMike

Trad climber
Cincinnati, Ohio
Mar 25, 2019 - 09:14am PT
Splater^

I am not a climate change denier. I just know it is the least of our concerns with nitrates getting out of control on a global ocean scale. This will be the death of the ocean and all fish in it plus up to 85% of our oxygen source.

I am a population size realist - We are out of control.

Media will tell you our fossil fuel burning it the biggest problem. If you are truly concerned about global warming and what is causing it, listen up.
Methane is 100 times more effective at raising global temperatures than CO2. Lets pick a date before the global population shot up and look at methane and CO2 levels. Lets look back the last 200 years. CO2 has increased 142% in parts per million over that time. Methane has increased 238% in parts per million over that same time period. When you multiply methane's power vs CO2 as a heat trapping gas, you get Methane being 167 times more responsible for our heat rise than CO2. You must then ask yourself where is methane is coming from. The bulk comes from providing food for this gargantuan global population. Rice paddies alone are the biggest form of climate change. In fact, humans and our food production, waste and sewage are responsible for over half of the climate changing gas where nearly the other half are naturally occurring.

Sources of the most powerful greenhouse gas Methane (CO2 can't touch the power of methane)

Methane follows human population increase (why do we keep growing the population and more problems - practice two kids per family and the population will reduce slowly along with the bulk of our problems)

Rather benign CO2 (.5% responsible compared to methane) other than dropping the Ocean pH which is bad.



August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Mar 25, 2019 - 10:09am PT

I am not a climate change denier. I just know it is the least of our concerns

I don't deny that cigarettes cause cancer. I just know it is the least of our health concerns. For instance, keep smart phones away from your head and don't stand under power lines.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Mar 25, 2019 - 01:11pm PT
TradMike,
most of what you wrote is wrong or misleading, whether you call it denial or trolling. Same as sketch. The basic science of GHGs and global warming is long settled.

Methane is approx 1/4 as big a problem as CO2 in the short run (30 years). Because it has a shorter life in the atmosphere it is about 1/8 of the problem in the long run (80 years). But it does go hand in hand with burning fossil fuels so it's part of the same problem - FOSSIL FUELS.
When you bring up methane, you are actually admitting that global warming caused by fossil fuels is a massive problem. You may have noticed that trumpy just killed the rules to control methane leaks. These emissions come from the same the fossil fuel industry whose lobbyists that have been lying for 30 years.

In addition, some increased emissions of methane are secondary feedbacks (to warming whose primary cause remains CO2). Methane sinks in tundra, swamps, and deep oceans are released by warming. Biological methane emissions increase with warming temperatures.

You bring up other problems only as a misleading distraction. The same way deniers have said for 30 years, "let's wait until the consensus is 99.999%" Rice paddies are only a small part of the methane problem. Livestock is a much more optional source that could be decreased, as could releases from shale, fracking, and leaks.
Those other problems you distract to are separate issues (overpopulation and nitrates) that serve only to detract from solving the issue of GHGs. You don't have an even remotely possible solution to population, so don't pretend that is the answer. GHG emissions actually do have a solution and alternatives.

WE NEED to REDUCE emissions caused by fossil fuel use and extraction!
That is all.


methane info:

https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-gases_.html

https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/91564/what-is-behind-rising-levels-of-methane-in-the-atmosphere

https://www.edf.org/climate/methane-other-important-greenhouse-gas

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/nasa-led-study-solves-a-methane-puzzle

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fracking-would-emit-methane/

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180621141154.htm

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/07122015/methane-emissions-texas-fracking-zone-90-higher-epa-estimate

Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Mar 25, 2019 - 04:14pm PT
Moose, You have your numerator and divisor and powers of ten mixed up.

Methane: 1860 PPB PARTS PER BILLION

CO2: 410 PPM PARTS PER MILLION = 410000 PPB.

That means there is 220 times as much CO2 as Methane.

"The 100-year global warming potential of methane is 28 to 32. That is, over a 100-year period, it traps 28 times more heat per mass unit than carbon dioxide and 32 times the effect when accounting for aerosol interactions.[6]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_methane

So for the year 2100 timeframe, Methane is 32 / 220 = 15% of the total effect of CO2.

In the shorter run, Methane has more effect because Methane is shorter lived. So it's 20 year warming contribution is about 85 times that of the same amount of CO2. Again since there is 220 times as much CO2, the net short term total contribution is 85 / 220 = 39% of the effect of CO2.
(Which is about .28 of the total, plus there are other GHG gases as well)
https://www.sightline.org/2019/02/12/methane-climate-change-co2-on-steroids/

Many scientists think both numbers should be reported. Either way, the easiest way to reduce methane emissions is the same as reducing CO2: cut fossil fuel use.

https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/understanding-global-warming-potentials

In summary,
FOSSIL FUEL Use and Extraction is by far the main cause of global warming.
capseeboy

Social climber
portland, oregon
Mar 25, 2019 - 04:15pm PT
. One of those ways is lifting people out of poverty; it seems to be a reverse correlation between the wealth and the number of children.

I don't think the Pope is going to endorse BC any time soon. He likes keeping his poverty base where it is, believing in a better afterlife.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Mar 25, 2019 - 04:25pm PT
Creeps are running and ruining America.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/03/23/leaked-audio-exposes-oil-gas-execs-laughing-joy-over-cozy-access-trump-officials

https://news.yahoo.com/recordings-show-oil-executives-love-202057536.html
TLP

climber
Mar 25, 2019 - 04:31pm PT
One of the problems in these discussions is poor (or actually no) definition of units for the various claims. The atmospheric content of, say, methane or CO2 is usually in ppm or ppb, presumably that's by weight and not numbers of molecules. A single CO2 molecule weighs about 2.75 times the weight of a CH4 molecule. I'm not sure what units pertains to these factors of how much more effective of a GHG methane is: weight? number of molecules? It would be ideal to have this expressed in the same units as atmospheric content, but people usually do not say.

Regardless, I think Splater and Malemute have the basic point correct: CO2 is a much bigger issue than CH4, and the biggest, most readily controllable factor in climate change is fossil fuels.

With regard to reducing the rate of population growth, and hopefully someday actually heading toward a lower human population, the one factor that most closely correlates with lowering birth rates, and has even been shown to be a causal factor, is the level of education that girls receive. There are stacks and stacks of research papers showing this, here's one link: http://blogs.worldbank.org/health/female-education-and-childbearing-closer-look-data

Compulsory reduction of birth rates is never going to fly in the places it would have benefits, and shouldn't as it is morally tainted and vulnerable to all kinds of horrible abuses and adverse other consequences. But just focusing on female education will do just as much good, in fact more because you also automatically result with a more productive overall workforce, so politicians can get their sainted economic growth rates with a lower population.

Unfortunately there are strong cultural headwinds in some places, but this should be the point of emphasis, and birth rates will take care of themselves.
TLP

climber
Mar 25, 2019 - 11:13pm PT
Thanks Malemute. One has to be pretty focused about units when people throw around glib statements about what's more of an effect than something else. Then there's another level of unit fuzziness (sometimes) since you often see statements about X metric tons of emissions (X having a bunch of zeroes too). Is that of CO2 or of just the elemental carbon component? The good reports are typically very careful about this, but other sources and especially the intentionally deceptive ones, not so much. Plus, the weight of fossil fuels burned is only a fraction of the weight of emissions (unless that's calculated to be just the carbon).
TradMike

Trad climber
Cincinnati, Ohio
Mar 26, 2019 - 06:06am PT
I looked at the numbers in closer detail and wow there is some deceptive stuff out there. When you take decay into account with a time scale you can make Methane look a lot less of a factor. Based on an MIT study and scientific consensus and a 1 year scale, Methane has 120 times more potential to warm the planet vs CO2. The 20 year and 100 year assumes additional contributions stop so that is an unfair scale to look at the picture since they are both increasing with methane increasing at a faster rate. We haven't stopped our contributions.

Lets look at this differently since my generalization above were based soley on percentages over the time scale of temperature increase that was out of norm and on the rise. I was trying to get a quick comparison and that is an incorrect view.

Looking at this closer. Since 1800 the temps have taken off. Everything before that was more so in equilibrium so we will look what has changed.

CO2 has increased from 280 to 400 parts per million. Methane has increased from .75 to 2 parts per million. CO2 has increased 120 parts per million vs Methane at 1.25 parts per million increase over this time period from 1800. If Methane is 120 times stronger whouldn't that equate to (1.25)*120 = 150 for Methane versus 120 for CO2? Wouldn't that be Methane being 1.25 more of a factor than CO2? If so, They seem to be equally bad in the short term with Methane being a little worse but increasing faster.

It seems like a two pronged approach is needed, reduce emissions and reduce population. I'd have to argue that population is worse in the fact it seems equivalent to emissions or worse on a global warming scale but also has the added factor of other pollutions that may kill us sooner. Having seen an entire lake die from nitrate pollution and total collapse of oxygen it is a scary times we live in when you see the precursors of that same collapse starting in the Oceans.
monolith

climber
state of being
Mar 26, 2019 - 07:42am PT
TradMike

Trad climber
Cincinnati, Ohio
Mar 26, 2019 - 10:33am PT
Monolith, I looked up the radiative forcing and that is a simplistic measure of the gases with everything else being equal and does not take into account what happens up in the upper atmosphere with these gases and how it affects the radiative forcing of each layer. It sounds like CO2 is similar to water vapor and may actually replace water vapor for s similar net effect. The paragraph below states this phenomena. While increasing CO2 has less and less effect on radiative absorption as ppm concentrations rise, more powerful greenhouse gases like methane and nitrous oxide have different thermal absorption frequencies to CO2 that are not filled up (saturated) as much as CO2, so rising ppms of these gases are far more significant.

"In terms of radiative factors, the heating rate in a layer of the atmosphere is a function of the spectrally-varying absorption/emission characteristics of the layer, the spectral fluxes incident on the layer, and the layer temperature. The absorption by a layer is a function of the abundances of absorbing gases in the layer. In the longwave spectral region in which carbon dioxide is a significant absorber (for wavelengths of about 12.5 micrometers and longer) water vapor is also radiatively active. For a wavelength at which water vapor is already significantly absorbing, the addition of an amount of carbon dioxide to the layer will cause relatively little increase in the flux absorbed by the layer and thus cause relatively little increase in the radiative heating of the layer."
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Mar 26, 2019 - 12:50pm PT
It seems like a two pronged approach is needed, reduce emissions and reduce population. I'd have to argue that population is worse in the fact it seems equivalent to emissions or worse on a global warming scale but also has the added factor of other pollutions that may kill us sooner. Having seen an entire lake die from nitrate pollution and total collapse of oxygen it is a scary times we live in when you see the precursors of that same collapse starting in the Oceans.

And as was already pointed out to you:

The US could things like shut down coal plants and switch to electric cars. That could be done legislatively with carbon taxes, my preference, or through mandates.

Unless you want to go all Nazi or China one-child, there is no simple fix for overpopulation. Most of the wealthy world, and even much of the semi-wealthy world, have birth rates at, or below, replacement levels.

In poor areas, the best/quickest method to get birth rates down are to educate females and raise standards of living. I think the US should more aggressively support both.
TradMike

Trad climber
Cincinnati, Ohio
Mar 26, 2019 - 02:00pm PT
It seems like we don't have a good clean energy source to charge our electric cars. There is hope in the fusion reactor. We could go all out on getting those figured out pronto. Wind and solar don't seem feasible on a large scale. The Chokecherry and Sierra Madre Wind Energy Project is massive but will only power a million homes.

It would be hard to ask anyone to not have or only have 1 child. 2 is below replacement population so that seems like a good start without being a Nazi. Poor areas seem to be a crux. Not sure how to fix that. If you help them do they just grow in size even more? Offer help, if they keep to 2 or less kids? Nobody sees population as a problem and I get crazy looks anytime I mention it. I have even heard people mention the US could handle a billion more.

The next few years will be telling as to where the Nitrate problem will take us.

I'll go bury my head in the sand. Thanks for educating me. Sorry for being a jerk, I try to not offend.
TradMike

Trad climber
Cincinnati, Ohio
Mar 26, 2019 - 06:32pm PT
Malemute^

Now now lets not vilify anyone. I saw the same news and my jaw dropped. You must understand his upbringing and what has been preached for centuries. You can't undue this is short order. One must reason with them to show the true light. Religion has been very good but it does has some old thinking. I know many wonderful Mormons. They are the most understanding and reasonable people you will ever meet. They also can be reasoned with and won't blow up on you. He can be a friend in this battle for positive change. His reasoning in the innovation of the future generations must not be stifled. We just can't over do it.

I think politics can change once both sides hang out together and agree to disagree on a few things but find some common ground on the important stuff. It has become way too decisive lately.
TLP

climber
Mar 26, 2019 - 07:05pm PT
TradMike, I agree about not vilifying people who might be susceptible to reason, but Malemute didn't do that, he just provided the quote, which in my opinion is one of the most ill-informed statements I've seen from any public figure. It would be nice if people he'd listen to would reason with and enlighten him.

Re your statement
Not sure how to fix that.
, please read posts. The known, proven method to reduce birth rates in less affluent countries (e.g. Africa), and one that probably works for less affluent sectors in affluent nations, is educating girls. It's that simple, and should be totally non-controversial. So, we do know how to fix that, and it should be a huge foreign and domestic policy emphasis. Like, yesterday.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Mar 26, 2019 - 09:16pm PT
It would be hard to ask anyone to not have or only have 1 child. 2 is below replacement population so that seems like a good start without being a Nazi. Poor areas seem to be a crux. Not sure how to fix that. If you help them do they just grow in size even more? Offer help, if they keep to 2 or less kids? Nobody sees population as a problem and I get crazy looks anytime I mention it. I have even heard people mention the US could handle a billion more.

I'm sure some of you guys are sick and tired of me posting that the population problem is solved, and that the big problem with population is that nowhere is planning for the contraction.

https://www.gapminder.org/answers/how-did-babies-per-woman-change-in-different-regions/

Does caring for poor children only result in more children? No. the opposite

https://www.gapminder.org/answers/will-saving-poor-children-lead-to-overpopulation/

Kalimon

Social climber
Ridgway, CO
Mar 26, 2019 - 10:51pm PT
Can you say greenhouse gasses?

Sure, I knew you could.
TLP

climber
Mar 26, 2019 - 10:56pm PT
Ken M, I'd love it if you were right that the "population problem is solved", but it is very much not solved. The site you link says human population growth will level out or go negative by 2100, but that is extremely unreassuring. The sociopolitical and environmental stresses of our current nearly 8 billion people are pretty severe already; double that and add on top of it the loss of much arable land and other consequences of major climate change (just changes in patterns is a gigantic disruption). Now can you seriously say the problem is solved?

However, you are totally right that no one seems to be planning for population contraction, and in-migration doesn't seem to be popular in exactly the places (Europe) where the native population is getting smaller.

Nevertheless, of the challenges that are right in our faces, that's by a long way the smallest one, and far easier to address than any of the others.
Kalimon

Social climber
Ridgway, CO
Mar 26, 2019 - 11:08pm PT
Damn TLP is nailing this sh#t.

Good job!
TradMike

Trad climber
Cincinnati, Ohio
Mar 27, 2019 - 10:57am PT
The population problem is slowing in some areas which is great. But we are killing Earth much faster than we can reduce to a sustainable society. I guess, I'll take the problems from contraction if I don't have to see this. Wait until it hits our Oceans where most the world gets its food. The toxins will create liver problems, numbness, respiratory distress and in some cases death.

Lake Erie - about to die from farming for this massive population
Anyone want to drink some fresh water?
TLP

climber
Mar 27, 2019 - 08:05pm PT
^+100. You are so right about this issue. It's the same basic issue as climate: widespread smaller contributions of pollutants that cumulatively are seriously bad.

And it has already reached the oceans: see Gulf of Mexico, huge dead zone from the agricultural pollution of the Mississippi. Also the case in Asia where large areas of reefs which are the nurseries for the fish they depend on have been destroyed by nutrient pollution. I've seen that first hand: miles of dead coral draped with green glop.

It's hard to be optimistic about anything being done about fertilizer pollution until some rich people (that is, owners of the political system) find that beautiful green paint on their vacation home doorsteps. Like in Florida for instance.

Spot on post. Great images.
Minerals

Social climber
The Deli
Mar 27, 2019 - 08:35pm PT

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article228126094.html
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Mar 28, 2019 - 04:40pm PT
The damage created by excess nutrient runoff is INCREASED by warmer temperatures.

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.5b03990

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.5268/IW-1.2.359

but don't worry. trumpy will apply his everlauded skilz, using golf courses as a best practices example, since they are so "green."
TradMike

Trad climber
Cincinnati, Ohio
Mar 29, 2019 - 07:25am PT
^
Now we just need the following to charge those planes. The only feasible solution that has a chance to get to the level of energy needed is a fusion reactor.

We currently have the technology and ability to prevent nitrate runoff from farms and sewage. It will take a lot of money to retrofit all the sewer systems and a lot of land to fix the nitrate runoff problem.

I wonder which of these two races to prevent our apocalypse we will win? And to be fair, I have not seen either side of the political spectrum bring the nitrate problem to attention. CO2 is the red herring in this match. Nitrates will kill us quicker. The UN even misleads people by using the 20 or 100 year decay scale to make methane look less of a problem and blame CO2 mostly when methane is probably worse. Well that is all I hear in the media, evil CO2. Yes CO2 is bad but watch out for the left hook (Nitrates and Methane), knockout.

The "Save The World New Deal" must address: Nitrates, Methane and CO2 or we are all doomed.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Mar 29, 2019 - 11:38am PT
Trad,

Fusion reactors have been 30 years away for nearly 50 years. I don't see that changing.

Not sure where you are getting your ideas and how much is sincere versus trying to stir things up.

I agree that overpopulation is a problem as are nitrates and many other forms of pollution. Humans aren't going to have to worry about not enough oxygen in the air. By the time there were enough changes that oxygen levels dropped that far, I"m pretty sure all the humans would already be gone.

Solar and wind are proven technologies that can be rolled out now and are scalable.

Fusion is the sort of thing that you spend $30 billion over 20 years and still don't have anything producing more power than it consumes.

I'm not knee-jerk opposed to the current nuclear energy, but developed countries don't seem to have the political will to build them in a cost effective and timely manner. The places like China that can build them in a cost effective manner probably shouldn't. Wouldn't surprise me to see China have a Chernobyl style accident. Even the Japanese can't run their nuclear industry in a safe manner.
TradMike

Trad climber
Cincinnati, Ohio
Mar 29, 2019 - 03:42pm PT
I am not trying to stir up anything. I see most of the right blind to our problems and I see the left proposing things that won't solve the problems while pushing an agenda and bandaids while the other major killers go unchecked. I am grasping for anything that will work for this population size. The nitrate timebomb is just starting since those are slow to leach out of the soil so even if we fix today they will continue to accelerate. I'd like to know the math on how much solar and wind power we would need for this population. It just doesn't seem like it is feasible at the surface. We'd need 652 Chokecherry and Sierra Madre Wind Energy Projects which is 500 square miles in size in prime wind zone by itself to power the US. I can't seem to find a decent solar calculation but they say only the desert southwest is feasible. I guess I am hoping on a Hail Mary in the fusion reactor. MIT says they can have a functioning 100 megawatt reactor by 2025. It may only be 1/50 of a nuke plant but scalable and would be 100 times better than wind power.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Apr 1, 2019 - 08:50am PT
A judge has ruled in favor of environmental groups in their effort to block the Trump administration’s push to re-open large portions of Arctic waters to oil drilling.

U.S. District Court Judge Sharon Gleason, in an opinion released late Friday, said President Donald Trump exceeded his authority by issuing an executive order in 2017 that reopened large parts of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas to offshore oil leasing. Former President Barack Obama had protected those areas from development in his second term.

The decision once again puts the vast majority of the Arctic Ocean and parts of the Atlantic off-limits to oil development.

https://www.alaskapublic.org/2019/03/29/judge-blocks-trump-administration-move-to-undo-obama-ban-on-arctic-oil-leasing/
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Apr 1, 2019 - 10:02am PT
Another win for the environment.

https://deq.nc.gov/news/press-releases/2019/04/01/deq-orders-duke-energy-excavate-coal-ash-six-remaining-sites?fbclid=IwAR1Y1QBIgq_ERshptgN4x6fwEyeRS197t-yn4zrn1W1stsGkPoZ48KW4nCk

Today, N.C. Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) ordered Duke Energy Progress, LLC to excavate all remaining coal ash impoundments in North Carolina. After conducting a rigorous scientific review of Duke Energy’s proposals for Allen, Belews, Cliffside/Rogers, Marshall, Mayo and Roxboro facilities, and conducting public listening sessions in impacted communities, DEQ has determined excavation of all six sites is the only closure option that meets the requirements of Coal Ash Management Act to best protect public health. The coal ash must be disposed of in a lined landfill.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Apr 1, 2019 - 01:46pm PT
I'd like to know the math on how much solar and wind power we would need for this population. It just doesn't seem like it is feasible at the surface. We'd need 652 Chokecherry and Sierra Madre Wind Energy Projects which is 500 square miles in size in prime wind zone by itself to power the US. I can't seem to find a decent solar calculation but they say only the desert southwest is feasible. I guess I am hoping on a Hail Mary in the fusion reactor. MIT says they can have a functioning 100 megawatt reactor by 2025. It may only be 1/50 of a nuke plant but scalable and would be 100 times better than wind power.

And I would be happy to bet my life savings that a 100 megawatt reactor isn't going to be built by 2025.

The wealthy world can't even build conventional nuclear power plants and that is using proven technology.

Check out the mess that is Hinkley Point C in the UK.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station

The US has cancelled almost all the new nuclear that was going to happen under the alleged 'nuclear renaissance'.

Fusion is not even a proven technology. A limited research budget is fine but a Hail Mary? No.

There is a tremendous amount of 'land' that solar could be built on if you look at rooftops and parking lots.

Wind generation has a lot of untapped potential offshore. There is still a lot of wind power that could be developed in the great plains states (start in Austin and go north to the Dakotas).

To take advantage of this, the country should invest in some large scale, long distance power lines. The politics of land ownership make this difficult, but I believe it is far more doable than fusion power.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Apr 3, 2019 - 12:53pm PT
https://www.npr.org/2019/04/02/709131281/electric-cars-hit-record-in-norway-making-up-nearly-60-of-sales-in-march

Electric Cars Hit Record In Norway, Making Up Nearly 60 Percent Of Sales In March
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Apr 7, 2019 - 02:01pm PT
On March 31, 2019, 12:00 UTC, the Arctic was 7.7°C or 13.86°F warmer than 1979-2000, as above image shows, while in parts of Alaska the anomaly was at the top end of the scale, i.e. 30°C or 54°F above 1979-2000, as discussed in an earlier post.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Apr 7, 2019 - 07:57pm PT
"If the president and his crew of climate deniers have their way and a fossil-fuelized version of energy “dominance” comes to rule our American world, while the path to alternative energy growth is crippled,..."

Hasn't this already been happening for 30+ years? Is trump different than shrub?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Apr 8, 2019 - 08:56am PT
not everyday that the byline "SQUAMISH, British Columbia" appears in a NYTimes Business page article, with a great image of the cliffs (in the print version)... and a climate change topic:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/07/business/energy-environment/climate-change-carbon-engineering.html
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Apr 8, 2019 - 11:49am PT
Pumped Hydro to even out electricity loads is still by far the best way to get from 30% green to 90% green.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1122395_pumped-hydro-could-deliver-100-percent-renewable-electricity
mouse from merced

Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
Apr 8, 2019 - 11:55am PT
The Helms Project at Courtwright Reservoir is California's best example of which I have heard of pumped hydro.
G_Gnome

Trad climber
Cali
Apr 8, 2019 - 12:42pm PT
The Helms Project at Courtwright Reservoir is California's best example of which I have heard of pumped hydro.

This was built to basically be the battery for the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant. While the plant runs all night but there is minimal drain to the community, that extra power was sent to Courtright to pump water from Wishon back up to Courtright so that it could be drained again during the following day to make more power. Pretty clever.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Apr 8, 2019 - 05:56pm PT
LADWP wants a pumped hydro project on the Colorado river.
(just about what I suggested in this forum in 2012).

Details are few. It looks like it would run between Hoover Dam and the upper part of Lake Mohave (the next reservoir 20 miles downstream from Lake Mead). A pump station at the upper part of Lake Mohave would pump the water into an underground pipeline for the uphill return trip.

this article has some info and some speculation.
http://euanmearns.com/the-hoover-dam-pumped-hydro-proposal/ I suspect it is incorrect (as others post in the comments) to think LA is planning to pump more uphill than would go through the turbines going downhill. Maybe they will add more turbines. Or maybe the details are still farfetched.
mouse from merced

Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
Apr 9, 2019 - 07:26am PT
https://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-glaciers-melting-20190408-story.html

Earth's glaciers are melting much faster than scientists thought. A new study shows they are losing 369 billion tons of snow and ice each year, more than half of that in North America.

The most comprehensive measurement of glaciers worldwide found that thousands of inland masses of snow compressed into ice are shrinking 18% faster than an international panel of scientists calculated in 2013.

The world's glaciers are shrinking five times faster now than they were in the 1960s. Their melt is accelerating because of global warming, and adding more water to already rising seas, the study found.

"Over 30 years suddenly almost all regions started losing mass at the same time," said lead author Michael Zemp, director of the World Glacier Monitoring Service at the University of Zurich. "That's clearly climate change if you look at the global picture."

The glaciers shrinking fastest are in central Europe, the Caucasus region, western Canada, the U.S. Lower 48 states, New Zealand and near the tropics. Glaciers in these places on average are losing more than 1% of their mass each year, according to a study in Monday's journal Nature.

"In these regions, at the current glacier loss rate, the glaciers will not survive the century," Zemp said.

Zemp's team used ground and satellite measurements to look at 19,000 glaciers, far more than previous studies. They determined that southwestern Asia is the only region of 19 where glaciers are not shrinking, which Zemp said is due to local climate conditions.

Since 1961, the world has lost 10.6 trillion tons of ice and snow, the study found. That's enough to cover the Lower 48 states in about 4 feet of ice.

Scientists have known for a long time that global warming caused by human activities like burning coal, gasoline and diesel for electricity and transportation is making Earth lose its ice. They have been especially concerned with the large ice sheets covering Greenland and Antarctica.

This study "is telling us there's much more to the story," said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., who wasn't part of the study. "The influence of glaciers on sea level is bigger than we thought."

A number of factors are making sea levels rise. The biggest cause is that oceans are getting warmer, which makes water expand. The new figures show glacier melt is a bigger contributor than thought, responsible for about 25% to 30% of the yearly rise in oceans, Zemp said.

Rising seas threaten coastal cities around the world and put more people at risk of flooding during storms.

Glaciers grow in winter and shrink in summer, but as the Earth has warmed, they are growing less and shrinking more. Zemp said warmer summer temperatures are the main reason glaciers are shrinking faster.

While people think of glaciers as polar issues, shrinking mountain glaciers closer to the equator can cause serious problems for people who depend on them, said Twila Moon, a snow and ice data center scientist who also wasn't part of the study. She said people in the Andes, for example, rely on the glaciers for drinking and irrigation water each summer.

A separate study Monday in Environmental Research Letters confirmed faster melting and other changes in the Arctic. It found that in winter, the Arctic is warming 2.8 times faster than the rest of the Northern Hemisphere. Overall, the region is getting more humid, cloudier and wetter.

"It's on steroids, it's hyperactive," said lead author Jason Box, a scientist for the Danish Meteorological Institute.
seano

Mountain climber
none
Apr 11, 2019 - 09:07am PT
Transplanting a forest 1000 feet uphill to help monarch butterflies. I expect to see more such efforts to save particular species, but it's hard to fathom the effort required to save most of them. Ptarmigans and pikas, for example, are in a world of trouble, for different reasons.
WBraun

climber
Apr 13, 2019 - 07:30am PT
Soooo boring here.

Just tons of copy paste

I miss Ron Anderson and the "Cheif" etal lol.

They made it wild, lol.

Now just basically one guy typing boring sterile dry copy paste all day every day.

You gross materialists ultimately sterilize everything until there's no life itself left .....
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Apr 13, 2019 - 02:28pm PT
monolith

climber
state of being
Apr 13, 2019 - 03:08pm PT
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Apr 14, 2019 - 10:28am PT
https://www.yahoo.com/news/bering-sea-changes-startle-scientists-worry-residents-160703816.htmlhttp://"]https://www.yahoo.com/news/bering-sea-changes-startle-scientists-worry-residents-160703816.htmlhttp://


Stories like the one above flit past us like gnats. We ignore them.

I admire Malemute's sincerity. Our changing climate is far more serious than the typical person understands, and the cost will be much worse than what they are fed as results of this planetary experiment. Rising sea level will be the least of our problems.

The fossil fuel lobby, along with a bunch of right wing idiots who have bought into their less than stellar record of high end peer review, cloud the issue in a manner almost exactly like the one that the tobacco lobby used before. And it worked for decades.

Our carbon and methane emissions are simple and measurable data points. So is the warming that we see in the Arctic, which is much higher than lower latitudes. Unfortunately, we as a species have never been able to take the long view. We cannot restrict our actions based on a punishment that most of us will not live to see.

We will see a lot, though. Even when we reach 2 degrees of warming, the planet will see profound changes.

This isn't just a problem of displaced population, nor population, although both are parts of the effect. It is our behavior that is most out of sync with reality.

We can act. The majority of the world even agrees that we should act. Unfortunately, it is too late to prevent disaster. At this point it is mitigation.

We need to stop screwing like rabbits, and reduce our carbon emissions by a great deal. Even with the Paris agreement, we won't halt our exponential increase.

That is another weakness of humans. The inability to understand an exponential function or equation. You can't keep growing forever. An experiment in a petri dish can illustrate that within a week or less.

Those who actively campaign to obscure the observations and numerical modeling are truly evil human beings. Not that evil human beings have ever been in short supply.

I would buy land in Saskatchewan. In the mean time, I use less fuel. I drive an old civic, and fill up every few months at best. The real pain will come with air travel. It is by far the most carbon expensive way to move around.

I fathered one child. We should pass a law allowing every person to parent 2/3 of a child. You could trade your right if you didn't want to parent children. Having a dozen, like Mormons and Catholics, will become downright abominations. As for consumption, the only thing that can slow it down is cost, and unfortunately, our hydrocarbon accumulations are sufficient to reach 4 degrees of warming before they begin to seriously run out, forcing choices of cleaner fuels.

We could make this change tomorrow. All we need is leadership, and punishment for scientific lies. Lies like the tobacco companies used.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Apr 14, 2019 - 10:57am PT
That is another weakness of humans. The inability to understand an exponential function or equation. You can't keep growing forever. An experiment in a petri dish can illustrate that within a week or less.

I don't see it at a "weakness," it is a well established biological imperative, metabolism leads to reproduction leads to increased metabolism which, in tern leads to increased reproduction.

There are certainly human perspectives on this, but it the consequences are predictable by "simple" ecology, however we'd like to dress them up in societal, religious, philosophical or economical clothing.

In some ways we are a hopeful species, and that is due in large part to our belief that we'll find a way to overcome the difficulties, whatever they will be.

Access to energy is necessary for all metabolism, and there are a large number ways that access has evolved, the "fitness landscape" is a harsh sieve for life and looking around we observe that life that has evolved over 4.1 billion years on its success at getting that energy, we are no different.

Interestingly to my mind is the success we've had in scavenging the energy from organisms that have spanned the history of life on Earth, at least for the past few hundred million years. And the possibility that we could scavenge all of it in a couple of hundred years.

The twist in this particular story being that we could not survive the consequences of burning all of that fuel if we exhaust the combustion products into the atmosphere.

Figuring out ways to avoid exhausting the products will greatly increase the cost of that energy source. Replacing that source of energy requires the expenditure of energy, it is not clear just what the margins are and it is the margins that will determine whether or not humans will succeed.

The margins are slim for all life, photosynthesis has a 3-6% efficiency for the conversion of light to chemical energy available to the organism for all of the life functions.

Can humans increase this efficiency? and in a manner that the entire process return a net positive energy balance.

It's not clear, but of course we are hopeful.

wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Apr 15, 2019 - 06:40pm PT
Great post Ed,we are hopeful.

It reminds me of a post years ago you directed at me about the percentage of renewables being used at the time.

You did not see that as hopeful,if memory suits me well.

Just seeing the numbers, I am curious to what those numbers read today,or,now.

Hopeful,Indeed.
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Apr 19, 2019 - 12:23pm PT
The Wayback Machine:

Climate Change skeptics? 2009 uncensored

https://web.archive.org/web/20100209023829/http://www.supertopo.com/climbers-forum/970221/Climate_Change_skeptics_ot

also: http://www.supertopo.com/climbers-forum/970221/Climate-Change-skeptics-ot
what still remains
Minerals

Social climber
The Deli
Apr 23, 2019 - 09:39am PT

https://news.yahoo.com/one-million-species-risk-extinction-due-humans-draft-131407174.html


Your kids' quality of life is going to be poor.

To say the least.

I don’t know how any educated person can bring a child into the world in this day and age, and still have a clean conscience.
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Apr 23, 2019 - 01:11pm PT
^^^^

Da Nile isn't just a river in Egypt.

Not much of a silver lining, but I do hope future grand kids can track down all the vicious climate denial and trolling their grand parents did.
Minerals

Social climber
The Deli
Apr 24, 2019 - 08:50pm PT

Well, we’ve lost Malemute now too. Bummer. He posted on another thread earlier today, asking for RJ to delete all of his posts and his account. This thread shows 3,060 posts on the listing of forum topics, but there are now 2,272 posts on the thread, plus this one. So Malemute posted to this thread 788 times. Thanks for all of the info, Malemute; I learned a lot.
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
May 6, 2019 - 11:54am PT
The Arctic ice is set to disappear. Drastic climate warming will then start.

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BiJMNcugkG8/XM0jWkQkuBI/AAAAAAAAaOU/d2kEdkLC-2gnIE8g52s5wd0IEYnYGc21wCLcBGAs/s1600/Figure4real.png

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

“We are hurtling towards the Blue Ocean Event (BOE) in the Arctic. Nobody knows for sure when it will happen. From my analysis, which I discuss in this video, my best guess is that the BOE will happen in 2022. After this BOE happens, then what will follow in subsequent years? I think that by BOE+2 years the Arctic Ocean will be ice free for August, September, and October. By BOE+4 years it will be ice free for 5 months, and by BOE+10 years the Arctic Ocean will be free of sea ice year round.” – Paul Beckwith, Climate Systems Scientist

http://www.scientistswarning.org/wiki/blue-ocean-event/
jogill

climber
Colorado
May 6, 2019 - 03:03pm PT
Because the world will end twelve years from now. Someone said this recently, I believe.

;>(
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
May 15, 2019 - 06:14pm PT
Hey ,lookie there ,NASA has come out with a new updated graph. Same as the old graph.



Splater

climber
Grey Matter
May 16, 2019 - 11:48am PT
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/613524/these-flexible-solar-cells-bring-us-closer-to-kicking-the-fossil-fuel-habit/
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
May 16, 2019 - 11:57am PT
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/05/how-much-does-world-subsidize-oil-coal-and-gas/589000/
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
May 21, 2019 - 12:39pm PT
"We find that a global total Sea Level Rise exceeding 2 m by 2100 lies within the 90% uncertainty bounds for a high emission scenario. This is more than twice the upper value put forward by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the Fifth Assessment Report."

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/05/14/1817205116

and of course sea level rise doesn't suddenly stop in 2100. The effect by 2300 is roughly 4 times the 2100 level.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
May 21, 2019 - 12:45pm PT
Global warming might be causing dogs to become depressed, say pet behaviourists

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/global-warming-could-be-causing-dogs-to-become-depressed-say-pet-behaviourists-a6854006.html

Funny or sad?

How about a lot of both!
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
May 25, 2019 - 06:49pm PT
Republican denial is very slowly fading. (But nowhere near fast enough to take effective action)
https://skepticalscience.com/fox-news-us-hotbed-denial-kids-cure.html

https://energynews.us/2019/03/04/national/republican-claims-on-climate-change-then-and-now/

Some admit it when it aligns with their latest business plans.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/30/climate/republicans-climate-change-policies.html

Changing Minds
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/feb/03/climate-change-denial-changing-minds

https://skepticalscience.com/former-denier-wrongheaded-but-certain.html

http://thestewardsjourney.com/as-a-conservative-evangelical-republican-why-climate-change-cant-be-true-even-though-it-is/

However some remain attached to ignorance.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/23/republicans-arent-just-climate-deniers-they-deny-the-extinction-crisis-too
https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2019/05/22/Two-of-Foxs-favorite-climate-deniers-testified-before-Congress-on-UN-extinction-report/223776

More failure to act.
https://www.axios.com/climate-change-earth-temperature-change-902e2958-451b-4044-a6a3-8dab46902da6.html

The latest updated, more accurate term is "Climate Crisis"
https://electrek.co/2019/05/25/climate-crisis-weekly-sea-levels/

12 excuses for climate inaction and how to refute them
Using moral clarity to counter defeatism around the climate crisis.
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/5/17/18626825/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-greta-thunberg-climate-change
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
May 29, 2019 - 12:31pm PT
This is just one reason why carbon credit trading is a poor substitute for direct carbon fees (RNCF = revenue neutral carbon fee).

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2019/may/29/trial-abandoned-because-expert-witness-had-no-expertise
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
May 31, 2019 - 09:12am PT
I'm gonna miss all this silly hysteria.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
May 31, 2019 - 10:14am PT
"I'm gonna miss all this silly hysteria."

Yes, you wouldn't be regularly trolling on this thread if you didn't have an interest. Whereas most people have learned something here about the massive scientific findings over recent decades, there are always some who become even more determined to sanctify their own selfish wants over the needs of the many.
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