Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jun 5, 2013 - 10:34pm PT
Bruce i think the temp gradient between the poles and tropics is increasing again-see the temperature graphs in the below link. Also included a link which i posted up thread which should be interesting to all.

http://climate4you.com/Polar%20temperatures.htm

http://www.astrobio.net/pressrelease/5290/
bluering

Trad climber
Santa Clara, CA
Jun 5, 2013 - 10:40pm PT
so what's your point?
if you'd like to throw out everything that disagrees with your point of view... fine
why discuss it then?


Is that for me or Rick?

I guess my response would be that all the models have been incorrect. And we want to base political policy on that?

It looks like these models are wrong to one degree or another.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jun 5, 2013 - 10:40pm PT
We must retrieve Bruce from that dark abyss of CAGW before the next 100 year flood sweeps him off the plain in 8 years or less.
bluering

Trad climber
Santa Clara, CA
Jun 5, 2013 - 10:47pm PT
well you are wrong
and what should we base policy on? what the Oil Companies want?


Policy should be based on energy-independence, from our Saudi masters. Then we can talk about silly CO2 emissions and solar-flares.

Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Jun 5, 2013 - 11:03pm PT
I would like to point out the obvious - in case it isn't obvious - that the past 20 years of climate policy has been determined by Bluering, Ron Anderson, Rick sumner, Cheif Huff an Chuff and an army of the similar minded. you gotta hand it to Bluey, he dosn't hide the truth about where he sees science fitting in. Thanks Bluey. Trying to get Rick to say that is like herding cats.


Policy should be based on energy-independence, from our Saudi masters. Then we can talk about silly CO2 emissions and solar-flares.

Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jun 5, 2013 - 11:29pm PT
Yeah, the jet-stream brings "weather", but so what? This warming Arctic hasn't effected the West Coast of US in any demonstrable fashion.

The video was too long for you?
7:11
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jun 5, 2013 - 11:38pm PT
This warming Arctic hasn't effected the West Coast of US in any demonstrable fashion.

Absolute 100% bullsh#t. You know nothing imbecile.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Jun 5, 2013 - 11:48pm PT
Rick - I had a look at your Climate4U site, but all there is is a bunch of numbers and sh#t. However this I found interesting:


The purpose is to assist reflective people to form a personal opinion on meteorological and climate matters. It is definitely not the purpose to encourage a passive personal approach by providing a list of 'correct' answers to a list of 'key' questions, but rather to stimulate active, personal thought and analysis. The motto of the Royal Society of Great Britain: nullius in verba - take nobody's word for it, is still highly relevant.

Do you think a "reflective person" - that is a person such as myself, you, Ron or Bluey - is capable of "forming a personal opinion' on matters of climate merely by dint of being a reflective person?

It clearly states that this site discourages learning about climate science by the normal processes of having it explained by experts "providing correct answers to key questions". It suggests instead that any reflective individual can teach themselves by "personal thought and analysis".

It reinforces this by stating "take nobodies word for it".

Do you agree with this? Do you recommend this approach to me, Ron and Bluey for understanding climate science?

If I needed to do open heart surgery on Bluey would you recommend that I take this approach in self directed learning? Or do you think it would be wise to follow expert provided "correct answers to key questions"? Should I not take their word for anything? Do you think Bluey would be more or less confident in his outcome if I relied entirely on "my personal thought and analysis"?

Do you think I am an idiot? Do you also wish to sell me the Brooklyn bridge?
WBraun

climber
Jun 6, 2013 - 12:02am PT
An Evangelical Declaration on Global Warming


Those guys actually believe this total nonsense?

There's nothing Evangelical about it at all.

Complete total materialism cloaked in the semantics of so called Evangelicalism.

In a nutshell, in street language ..... stooppid .......
bluering

Trad climber
Santa Clara, CA
Jun 6, 2013 - 12:11am PT
as for the models being "wrong," how do you figure that out, blue?

Ed, Im not a brilliant scientist, but I am a professional troubleshooter (in electronics). I solve problems for a living, some easy, and some much more complex.

I do look at things from a logical standpoint based on measurable facts, and data. Real data, that I can measure in real-time.

As for models? That is totally unpredictable, especially in terms of something so dynamic as weather! There are too many factors to harness. Sh#t is way too dynamic (Wind, sun, water-temps). You cannot model that.

You can try, but don't tell me it's reliable.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Jun 6, 2013 - 12:17am PT
This is Ricks preferred method of solving climate science problems, which is much the same as all the rest of us dummies, no matter how much of a scientist he thinks he is:


Heuristic
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Heuristic (/hjʉˈrɪstɨk/; Greek: "Εὑρίσκω", "find" or "discover") refers to experience-based techniques for problem solving, learning, and discovery that give a solution which is not guaranteed to be optimal. Where the exhaustive search is impractical, heuristic methods are used to speed up the process of finding a satisfactory solution via mental shortcuts to ease the cognitive load of making a decision. Examples of this method include using a rule of thumb, an educated guess, an intuitive judgment, stereotyping, or common sense.
In more precise terms, heuristics are strategies using readily accessible, though loosely applicable, information to control problem solving in human beings and machines.[1]
Contents [hide]


Here are a few other commonly used heuristics, from George Pólya's 1945 book, How to Solve It:


1) If you are having difficulty understanding a problem, try drawing a picture.

2) If you can't find a solution, try assuming that you have a solution and seeing what you can derive from that ("working backward").

3) If the problem is abstract, try examining a concrete example.

4) Try solving a more general problem first (the "inventor's paradox": the more ambitious plan may have more chances of success).

Perhaps Ed or someone else can explain the limitations of heuristcs in a field as technical as climate science.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Jun 6, 2013 - 12:21am PT
As for models? That is totally unpredictable, especially in terms of something so dynamic as weather!


Bluey, you clearly know nothing about modern day weather forecasting and how computer modeling revolutionized it into the phenomenal abilities it possesses today.

Hang your head in shame
bluering

Trad climber
Santa Clara, CA
Jun 6, 2013 - 12:32am PT
Bluey, you clearly know nothing about modern day weather forecasting and how computer modeling revolutionized it into the phenomenal abilities it possesses today.

Maybe a week or 2 out, but no further. Impossible to get accurate.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Jun 6, 2013 - 12:38am PT
bluey - you demonstrate that you have no clue about what you are talking about. Your knowledge of computer modeling is zero. You form an opinion based on squat. Why do you think this necessary?
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jun 6, 2013 - 12:41am PT
The last sentence Ed- The variations over the long term remains an area open to research. This is a good start for the research direction after final abandonment of climate modeling based on the false premise of overwhelming anthropogenic forcing. This day will be relatively near in the future, surely in 4 years or less.

Bruce-whats wrong with questioning all and thinking for yourself? That is what they are saying in a nutshell. Now let's extricate you from that dark abyss. You can do it, chimney up those slippery walls, the light beckons to you just above.
Malemute

Ice climber
the ghost
Jun 6, 2013 - 12:44am PT
It's not Bluey's fault; he's only got 64K & 10 Mips
bluering

Trad climber
Santa Clara, CA
Jun 6, 2013 - 12:46am PT
Your knowledge of computer modeling is zero. You form an opinion based on squat.


True, yet also untrue. Models cannot predict the unpredictable. The unforeseen.

I think you miss my point. You have to feed a model data, but do you really know what that data is in the future? Based solely on past climates?

Really? It's speculation at best.
WBraun

climber
Jun 6, 2013 - 12:51am PT
Heh heh heh

You got em Bluey.

Bruce don't know sh!t either.

He just tries to sound smart but is not.

A squirrel and the tree it lives in knows more about what is going to happen in the future weather then either the computer or the mental speculators like Bruce and the dog ......

I work both sides of the fence.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Jun 6, 2013 - 01:03am PT
Bruce-whats wrong with questioning all and thinking for yourself? That is what they are saying in a nutshell.


Did I say that? And is that what they say? No and No. This is what they say:

It clearly states that this site discourages learning about climate science by the normal processes of having it explained by experts "providing correct answers to key questions". It suggests instead that any reflective individual can teach themselves by "personal thought and analysis".

It reinforces this by stating "take nobodies word for it".

]no sane person can interpret their words any other way. They recommend self directed learning through "personal thought" whatever the fuk that is. They warn against "taking anyones word for it". Can you imagine such a thing occurring in any school or university in any field?

As for what you say about me, of course I don't disparage thinking for yourself and questioning all. That is testing. You take what you are taught and then you validate through testing. Either that or if you insist on being the rugged individual you can reinvent the wheel all by yourself then you can assume proudly that your rectangular wheel is the height of wheel technology.

McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Jun 6, 2013 - 01:22am PT
They encourage doubt, not critical thinking.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchants_of_Doubt
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