Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 27, 2013 - 09:03am PT
Chief do you listen to your daughter's opinion about psychology and people or do you trust your own experience? For starters your daughter has a doctorate in clinical psychology

Sure do. She never ceases to remind me to never ever change. Never. Boom Boom!


WTF!!

Get the tanning oils out boys and girls. It's getting hot out there. Steaming I tell ya.

Burlington, Vt., National Weather Service meteorologist Mike Muccilli says the mountain experienced steady snow and gusty winds throughout the weekend.

He says Mount Mansfield, in Stowe, Vt., had 13.2 inches of snow Sunday, the latest in the season it's ever had a foot.






Of course. The new term "Variability" comes into play. Must of been a hot tornado. So hot it snowed record amounts that the GCC folks mention nothing of. Oh. Forgot. When the "variables" go in the opposite direction, it's just weather. Forgot.

Let's go ahead and screw over the poor in this country. Mind you, it is they that need to have a butt insertion more than all the righteous GCC eco freaks in this nation that live the Caveman life.

Carbon Taxes: The US Congressional Budget Office released a study on carbon taxes. It shows that the tax will significantly add to government revenues. The question is what would government do with these revenues? The tax would be regressive, hitting lower income groups worse than higher income groups and would thwart job-creation in some of the few industries in the US that are growing robustly, such as oil, natural gas, and related industries. It is doubtful that, no matter how the government uses the revenue, the tax would create prosperity. As the stimulus bill demonstrated, Keynesian concepts, such as the balanced budget multiplier, are based on untested, and faulty, assumptions.

One of the misleading arguments of the carbon tax is that it is simple. The same could have been said of the US income tax. It was a simple tax Congress enacted in October 1913 as part of the Revenue Act of 1913, levying a 1% tax on net personal incomes above $3,000, and with a progressive structure topping at a 6% surtax on incomes above $500,000 for a total marginal rate of 7%. As the rates became onerous, so did the provisions and complexity of the tax code. Now the tax is complex, confusing, and largely undecipherable, subject to many interpretations and occupying the efforts of many talented people.

Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revenue_Act_of_1913.
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 27, 2013 - 09:33am PT
Here ya go Rick!


In order to predict the climate change, we need to understand the key aspects of the climate system. One key aspect is how cloudiness changes in an atmosphere with more greenhouse gases, and how, in turn, this change in cloudiness affects the climate. This is important, because we all have experienced how important cloudiness is in determining the day's minimum and maximum temperatures, for instance. About 60% of the globe is covered by cloud. Clouds modulate Earth's radiation balance both in the visible and infrared spectra. Clouds are also important as key link in the hydrological cycle, and this involves transfer of water and heat from the oceans to the land surfaces. We know the following:

Clouds cool the Earth by reflecting incoming sunlight. The tiny drops or ice particles in clouds scatter between 20 and 90 percent of the sunlight that strikes them, giving them their bright, white appearance. From space, clouds look bright whereas large bodies of water look dark. A cloud-free Earth would absorb nearly 20 percent more heat from the sun than the present Earth does. To be in radiation balance Earth would have to be warmer by about 12C. Clouds cool the planet by reflecting sunlight back into space, much as they chill a summer's day at the beach.

Clouds warm the Earth by absorbing infrared radiation emitted from the surface and reradiating it back down. The process traps heat like a blanket and slows the rate at which the surface can cool. The blanketing effect warms Earth's surface by some 7C.
Thus the net effect of clouds on the climate is to cool the surface by about 5C, at least under the current global distribution of clouds. Clouds reflect about 50 W m-2 of solar radiation up into space, and radiate about 30 W m-2 down to the ground, so the net effect is 20 W m-2 cooling on average. This greatly exceeds the 4 W m-2 warming due to doubling the atmospheres carbon dioxide from 300 to 600 ppm, or the roughly 2 W m-2 cooling caused by aerosols.

We don't know how clouds themselves will change by the warming of the Earth, forced by a change in greenhouse gas concentration; and
what the net cooling or warming effect of all clouds on Earth will be in a changing atmosphere.

If the cooling effect of clouds increases more than the heating effect does, the clouds would reduce the magnitude of the greenhouse-induced warming but speed its arrival (negative feedback). The same result could come about if both effects decrease, but the cooling decreases less than the heating does. If the cooling increases less (or decreases more) than the heating, the cloud changes would boost the magnitude of eventual warming but delay its arrival. (It is also possible for the two effects to go in opposite directions, which would give rise to outcomes similar to the ones mentioned, but more intense.) In any event, what matters is only the net effect of clouds. A complicating factor is the altitude of the clouds: high clouds have a net warming effect, because they block little incoming solar radiation but, being so cold, they return little outgoing infrared radiation back to the Earth surface. Low clouds have a net cooling effect, because they have a high albedo, and, being nearly as warm as the surface, they emit nearly as much infrared radiation to space as would the surface under clear skies.

At this time very little is known about the sensitivity of clouds to a changing climate (1). Little is known about the stratus cloud veil that covers much of the subtropical oceans, for instance off California and off Chile. Yet these clouds are believed to be very important in the global radiation balance, and can be readily excited by manmade CCN, as evidenced in ship tracks. Also, surface-based cloud observations are very limited in temporal resolution and spatial coverage of the globe.
(1) Rossow, W.B., and Y.-C. Zhang 1995. Calculation of surface and top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes from physical quantities based on ISCCP datasets: 2. Validation and first results. J. Geophys. Res. 100, 1167-1197.
mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
May 27, 2013 - 10:15am PT
I'm over 5'4"
Yvon Chouinard and plenty others are NOT. SFW!

Yeah, but Yvon is cool, and so are plenty of others.
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 27, 2013 - 10:56am PT
Yeah, but Yvon is cool,

It is obvious that you are one misperceived Cave dweller. You have never directly worked for YC. If you have, well, let's just say your opinion would be far different. "Cool" would definitely not be in your verbiage. I worked P/T at the GPIW & Real Cheap Sports 80-84. YC ran a very tight ship to say the least. Very very very tight.
mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
May 27, 2013 - 11:16am PT
Cool doesn't necessarily mean laid back. Just another example of how utterly clueless you are.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 27, 2013 - 11:18am PT
Anti-intellectualism
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


Anti-intellectualism is hostility towards and mistrust of intellect, intellectuals, and intellectual pursuits, usually expressed as the derision of education, philosophy, literature, art, and science, as impractical and contemptible. Alternatively, self-described intellectuals who are alleged to fail to adhere to rigorous standards of scholarship may be described as anti-intellectuals although pseudo-intellectualism is a more commonly, and perhaps more accurately, used description for this phenomenon.

In public discourse, anti-intellectuals usually perceive and publicly present themselves as champions of the common folk populists against political elitism and academic elitism proposing that the educated are a social class detached from the everyday concerns of the majority, and that they dominate political discourse and higher education.

Because "anti-intellectual" can be pejorative, defining specific cases of anti-intellectualism can be troublesome; one can object to specific facets of intellectualism or the application thereof without being dismissive of intellectual pursuits in general. Moreover, allegations of anti-intellectualism can constitute an appeal to authority or an appeal to ridicule that attempts to discredit an opponent rather than specifically addressing his or her arguments.[1]

Anti-intellectualism is a common facet of totalitarian dictatorships to oppress political dissent. The Nazi party's populist rhetoric featured anti-intellectualism as a common motif, including Adolf Hitler's political polemic, Mein Kampf. Perhaps its most extreme political form was during the 1970s in Cambodia under the rule of Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge, when people were killed for being academics or even for merely wearing eyeglasses (as it suggested literacy) in the Killing Fields.[2]

The bottom paragraph is illustrative of the Republican party embrace of anti intellectualism and its manipulation of the people who wallow in it, such as The Chief and Rick Sumner. Its remarkable to think that modern day America, once the richest and most prosperous nation in the world is heavily populated by anti intellectuals. You just have to consider for a moment how many people voted for a ticket that included Sarah Palin.
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 27, 2013 - 11:54am PT
Cool doesn't necessarily mean laid back. Just another example of how utterly clueless you are.
Put that pipe down boy. Breath some 18.2% 02 and allow your brain to function naturally, Caveman style.

MrKAY!

Can't stand Repubs nor Dems. Politics and Religion are both as bad as GCC. Human ego.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 27, 2013 - 12:19pm PT
But you don't deny that you are anti intellectual. What you claim about your political allegience is at best debatable and at worst a smoke screen. The simple fact is that you are a tool of the Republicans and Koch brothers, Enron, etc.

But that is a side issue. We are talking about you and your motives. The fact that you are frightened by simple relevant questions is an indictment against your willingness to engage in an intellectual forum, which this is. This is a discussion and debate of knowledge and ideas which by definition requires an ability to evolve under weight of evidence and reason. It also requires a reasonable level of humility so that you don't misrepresent your abilities.

I've got another uncomfortable question for you that you will no doubt avoid under a hilarious pretense of butt hurt at my preposterous display of disrespect:

Do you think that your self directed education of the climate sciences has been a success? Can you capably prove this success or can you only assert this success?

mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
May 27, 2013 - 12:30pm PT
Chaff is anti-everything but Chaff.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
May 27, 2013 - 12:37pm PT
My ONE simple question back about four pages or so now,, has gone unanswered..
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 27, 2013 - 12:39pm PT
Werner Braun knows
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 27, 2013 - 12:46pm PT
Is this it Ron?

simple question,, if they DONT KNOW why the "warming" flattened out the previous decade, then how are they to assume their interpretations for the future are correct?

Sorry, can't help you without misrepresenting myself. I don't know but is it true that "they" don't know?
Norton

Social climber
the Wastelands
May 27, 2013 - 01:05pm PT
or in the same vein..

how come science can land a man on the moon but can't cure the common cold?

therefore science ........you fill in the mocking conclusion.....
Norton

Social climber
the Wastelands
May 27, 2013 - 01:12pm PT
For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.
H. L. Mencken
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 27, 2013 - 01:31pm PT
Sorry Ed. All that stuff just makes my head spin. Even the abstracts.

Perhaps Rick Superior, Rick Inferior or Dr Werner Von Braun could interpret all that for me?
mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
May 27, 2013 - 02:19pm PT
I answered your question just after you posted it Ron. You are welcome.
Malemute

Ice climber
the ghost
May 27, 2013 - 02:34pm PT
For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.
H. L. Mencken

And supported by morons.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
May 27, 2013 - 03:50pm PT
Yeah Ed, it is an amazing time as they attempt to close the energy imbalance problem that has kept the modeling results diverging more, not less than from observations.Thanks for bringing the papers to light.

Is anyone else here reading the solar physics papers that come to the conclusion that the late 20th century was a "Grand Maxima" of activity. Since all the CMip's seem to take the value of TSI based on the late 20th century as a mean it is no wonder that they were able to smooth into insignificance periods like the medieval and roman warm periods.

On another note what are the emerging explanations for the "late and fridgid spring" felt almost universally in the high mid to upper north latitudes?
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
May 27, 2013 - 03:57pm PT
No Ed, this is an event. Coldest in north latitudes in over fifty years. Records were broken all over the northern globe.
Norton

Social climber
the Wastelands
May 27, 2013 - 04:02pm PT
Records were broken all over the northern globe.

boy, they sure were

why just last summer both the US and Europe broke all kinds of recorded heat records

but I think Ed's point is that "weather" and climate are two very different things

weather is continually variable with many divergent localized differences, like Rick's example of some reported coldness

whereas climate is a much broader meaning without the degree of localization as weather
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