Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Apr 1, 2015 - 09:03am PT
"Ice age comether" in blog lingo. Of course there's some science about this on Milankovitch scales (tens of thousands of years), but Real Soon variant seems to have tinfoil-hat appeal.
Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Apr 1, 2015 - 09:37am PT
Comb back through what remains of this threads 35, 000+ posts to see the various mechanisms theorized for the rather large varition's of individual solar outputs other than the convenient TSI While I appreciate you, ullamco mollit There is no bacon. nulla exercitation exercitation in duis, unstuffing yourself from your overtight shirt and letting your hair down ( maybe thats an improper analogy since your hair seems to poke every which direction) ex velit ipsum sed veniam ut There is no bacon. ut dolor eiusmod There is no bacon. with some humorous written visuals, you are nonetheless exhibiting selective amnesia again. Comb back through what remains of this threads 35, 000+ posts to see the various mechanisms theorized for the rather large varition's of individual solar outputs other than the convenient TSI.Bacon ipsum dolor amet quis adipisicing fugiat qui minim There is no bacon. There is no bacon.Comb back through what remains of this threads 35, 000+ posts to see the various mechanisms hair seems to poke every which direction theorized for the rather large varition's of individual solar outputs other than the convenient TSI ex velit ipsum sed veniam ut There is no bacon. ut dolor eiusmod There is no bacon. ullamco mollit There is no bacon. nulla exercitation exercitation in duis There is no bacon. hair seems to poke every which direction There is no baconBacon ipsum dolor amet quis adipisicing fugiat qui minim There is no bacon. There is no bacon.ex velit ipsum sed veniam ut There is no bacon. ut dolor eiusmod There is no bacon.
ullamco mollit There is no bacon. nulla exercitation exercitation in duis There is no bacon. There is no bacon


rick sumner, random text generator
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Apr 1, 2015 - 10:48am PT
Going for a chief type prediction, it looks like the Pacific ocean could set records for west coast/ California temperatures this summer, warming so far faster than water near the equator. It's already 3 C warmer than usual, 5 deg F.

For now the local effect is leading the global upcoming dump of heat from the oceans to the atmosphere.

http://www.sccoos.org/data/el-nino/
http://www.climate.gov/news-features/department/8443/all
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
crunch

Social climber
CO
Apr 1, 2015 - 11:14am PT
Comb back through what remains of this threads 35, 000+ posts to see the various mechanisms theorized for the rather large varition's of individual solar outputs other than the convenient TSI.

Or one can go to the source....

Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Apr 1, 2015 - 01:07pm PT
New climate research published online today in Nature:

Emerging evidence indicates that dragons can no longer be dismissed as creatures of legend and fantasy, and that anthropogenic effects on the world's climate may inadvertently be paving the way for the resurgence of these beasts.

Long considered to be the stuff of legend, dragons cross cultures and continents. Until recently, however, scant attention had been paid to the fact that the commonality in cultural representations of such creatures indicates something more sinister. From depictions in Ancient Greek literature and Slavic myth, to the dragons of the East or allusions in Zoroastrian scripture, the descriptions resonate. What if these legends were rooted in truth? The differences in appearance — some lack wings, some have multiple heads and some seem not to breathe fire — once thought to reflect local traditions, can also readily be explained by speciation.

The relative frequency of 'dragons' in fictional literature (thick red line), as determined as a unigram probability4, with two historical reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature (decadal smoothing) shown in blue5 and purple6. Global temperatures have been measured since 1855 (thick black line5). Temperature anomalies represent deviations from the 1961–90 reference period. The rising incidence of dragons in the literature correlates with rising temperatures, and suggests that these fire-breathing lizards are being sighted more frequently. As a result, the large-scale 'Third Stir' is deemed to be imminent.
crankster

Trad climber
Apr 1, 2015 - 07:19pm PT
The Denier's...are insane.

(CNN)

A high temperature of 63.5 degrees Fahrenheit might sound like a pleasant day in early spring -- unless you're in Antarctica.

The chilly continent recorded the temperature (15.5 degrees Celsius) on March 24, possibly the highest ever recorded on Antarctica, according to the Weather Underground.

The temperature was recorded at Argentina's Esperanza Base on the northern tip of the Antarctica Peninsula, according to CNN affiliate WTNH. (Note to map lovers: The Argentine base is not geographically part of the South American continent.)

The World Meteorological Organization, a specialized United Nations agency, is in the process of setting up an international ad-hoc committee of about 10 blue-ribbon climatologists and meteorologists to begin collecting relevant evidence, said Randy Cerveny, the agency's lead rapporteur of weather and climate extremes and Arizona State University professor of geographical sciences.

The committee will examine the equipment used to measure the temperature, whether it was in good working order, whether the correct monitoring procedures were followed, whether the equipment was placed in the correct location and whether the measurement is matched by corresponding records from surrounding stations, Cerveny said.

The committee will discuss the issues and make a recommendation to Cerveny, who will make an official finding, probably by late summer or early fall.

Researchers who study climate change carefully watch weather changes in the Antarctic region and elsewhere for evidence that the Earth is getting warmer.
.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Apr 4, 2015 - 10:02am PT
As mentioned upthread I've been working on forest and fire issues lately. One of my coauthors just sent a link to a new Rolling Stone article that pulls things more colorfully together. The science lit is painting this picture but it's all more abstract in a graph. The RS article builds around the postdoctoral research of Park Williams.

The Fate of Trees: How Climate Change May Alter Forests Worldwide
In May 2011, a postdoctoral student at Los Alamos National Laboratory named Park Williams set out to predict the future of the dominant iconic conifers of the American Southwest — the Douglas fir, the pi๑on pine and the ponderosa pine. As the planet warms, the Southwest is projected to dry out and heat up unusually fast — few places will be more punishing to trees. Williams couldn't rely on climate models, whose representations of terrestrial vegetation remain crudely unspecific. He needed a formula that could accurately weigh the variables of heat, aridity and precipitation, and translate atmospheric projections into a unified measure of forest health.

Even more than the melting glaciers and icefields, forest health seems like one of those changing-planet realities that climbers encounter on their own scale every time they go out.
TLP

climber
Apr 4, 2015 - 10:30am PT
Change in forests and fire issues are interrelated on several scales, and one of the major ones of those is the change in the nature of the fires that occur, not just frequency and areal extent. In chaparral, essentially 100 percent of fires are stand-replacing throughout nearly the whole area of the fire: the shrubby vegetation, indeed all above-ground plant matter living or dead, with the exception of the burls formed by manzanitas and similar shrubs (one might say, these are at and not above the ground), is completely burned. Regeneration occurs by root- and burl-sprouting and by germination of seeds that is stimulated by heat and post-fire conditions (smoke leachate). But the pre-existing canopy is entirely burned and replaced. Contrary to widespread belief, the natural fire frequencies in chaparral are relatively long, and are made shorter in recent times only because of the many human-caused fires.

California's conifer forests have a completely different fire ecology. Natural frequencies of occurrence of fires are much much shorter than in chaparral, on the order of 15-25 years for the majority of the state (maybe not including the wet northwestern part). But these formerly frequent fires were almost entirely ground fires, not stand-replacing. The whole forest is still standing there, with nearly the entire canopy still growing; only the shrub and ground layer, and litter, was consumed. So the ecosystem remains largely the same, except for a few fire-follower plants and birds. If the vast area of conifer-shrubland, and maybe even a lot of the lower west slopes were to become warmer and drier such that there is type-conversion to chaparral, you'd still have the higher frequency of natural ignitions, combined with vegetation cover that produces completely stand-replacing fires. That would be a really, really gigantic change for the state's lower montane and foothill ecosystems, likewise for the already stressed watersheds.

Who knows what other regional changes would occur, for example in the Great Basin.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Apr 7, 2015 - 07:42am PT
Americans don't give a sh#t about their kids & grandkids.

Global corporations and the consolidated right-wing controlled main-stream media are the ones who don't give a hoot. The American people, on whole, are too f*#kin' ignorant to think past the next Living with the Kardashian's and Duck Love episodes. They have been well trained.
WBraun

climber
Apr 7, 2015 - 07:55am PT
Duck Love episodes

Huh ..... you talkin about me again?

LOL ....... :-)
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Apr 7, 2015 - 08:12am PT
No Werner, you're no American quack (try as you might!).

ION,

The election should be interesting:

WASHINGTON -- Tom Steyer's climate-focused political group NextGen is already gearing up for the 2016 presidential race, announcing on Monday a new effort that will focus on putting Republican candidates on the defense when it comes to global warming.

NextGen Climate's chief strategist, Chris Lehane, said in a call with reporters that the group's mission heading into 2016 is to "disqualify" candidates who deny that climate change is real or caused by human activity by proving that "they don't have what it takes to be president."
...

The idea, NextGen says, is to force Republican candidates who are skeptical of climate change to defend their views right out of the gate.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/04/06/steyer-climate-2016_n_7012828.html



WASHINGTON -- Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina on Monday blamed environmentalists for what she called a "man-made" drought in California, which has led to the state's first water restrictions.
...

NextGen Climate, the climate-focused political group run by billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer, on Monday evening called Fiorina's comments "irrational."

"For a science denier to opine that Democrats caused the drought in California is about as irrational as believing someone who failed at running a business in California and then failed as a candidate for office in California has any cause to be running for the highest office in the land," Bobby Whithorne, the group's spokesman, said in a statement.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/04/06/carly-fiorina-california-drought_n_7014468.html


Furthermore:

"For more than 100 years, environmentalists have failed to stop the damming of nearly every significant river in California. And yet all of the hundreds of dams out there have done nothing to produce rain or snow pack over the last four years. That's because you can't store what's not there," said Kathryn Phillips, director of Sierra Club's California chapter. "We simply don't have rain or snow pack and are suffering the worst California drought since water agencies and weather trackers started keeping records."

"What we are seeing is exactly what climate scientists have predicted would happen in California with the onset of human-caused climate disruption: Weather and precipitation would become less predictable and droughts would become more frequent and more severe," Phillips added.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Apr 7, 2015 - 08:19am PT
I think war will harm future generations, my opinion in 2015. I think war will not harm me personally, in 2015.


Most Americans feel pretty secure, living in their status quo. War is far away, and our Congress aims to ensure our military might keeps it that way.

But climate change is different. It doesn't heed political boarders. Floods in Boulder CO, storm surges in NY, drought-induced fires in CA. Will any of these severe climate events "harm" your way of life? You're doing pretty well if the climate passes you by and you can continue your life in the status quo.
Bob D'A

Trad climber
Taos, NM
Apr 7, 2015 - 08:58am PT
"Americans don't give a sh#t about their kids & grandkids."


Of course they don't but wait till it hits their pocketbooks.
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Apr 7, 2015 - 09:20am PT
Americans don't give a sh#t about their kids & grandkids.

A second logical flaw (in addition to the one DMT noted):

People may think that the "solutions" to climate change will cause more harm than climate change itself. (They may not be right about that, but it illustrates that the conclusion that Americans don't care about the future doesn't follow from Malemute's post.)

But climate change is different. It doesn't heed political boarders. Floods in Boulder CO,

According to our nation's top scientists, the 2013 Colorado floods were not caused or aggravated by climate change.
http://research.noaa.gov/News/NewsArchive/LatestNews/TabId/684/ArtMID/1768/ArticleID/10787/Climate-change-not-to-blame-for-2013-Colorado-floods-.aspx
Is that an important point? Perhaps not, but it illustrates the the current groupthink that every natural disaster is caused by humans is based more on a (wrong) worldview than on actual science.

Another example: people I talk to seem completely incredulous to the fact that climate change is expected to increase average global precipitation. That just doesn't jibe with their Al Gore-induced fear of heat-blasted global drought. (But as noted, they are willing to ascribe any particular flood or storm to climate change, even when scientists debunk that.)
Bob D'A

Trad climber
Taos, NM
Apr 7, 2015 - 09:43am PT
DMT wrote: But keep on trying to convince me, I am listening. I don't deny climate change, but I am reluctant to see it in every shadow, in every weather event, in every poorly planned housing debacle.


And just who is saying that?
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Apr 7, 2015 - 11:19am PT
"I think war will harm future generations, my opinion in 2015. I think war will not harm me personally, in 2015.
Does climate change harm logic?"

War is harming all of us right now.
At a minimum in the pocketbook to the tune of hundreds of billions per year in the USA alone, for DOD + NSA + DHS anti terror costs, plus VA costs, plus cost of millions of refugees, plus anyone you know who was a casualty, plus the mental cost of insecurity.

Climate change does and will affect some more directly than others. Some will be able to buy their way around problems (which is still a harm).

"A couple of posters on this thread, on a very regular basis, seem to cite climate change in every severe weather event."

The problem is that people love to focus on and respond to posts that are:
outliers, trolls, misleading.
This ends up just giving undeserved attention to sidetracks, ignores the main issues, and moves the discussion backwards.

What happens in a 5th grade classroom if one child is disturbing the class? Do the teacher and the other students spend the rest of the day giving all their attention to the disturbance?
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Apr 7, 2015 - 04:48pm PT
A couple of posters on this thread, on a very regular basis, seem to cite climate change in every severe weather event.

Some questions:

 Is the temperature of the Earth warming?
 Does an increasing global temperature cause changes in weather events?
 Can any one severe weather event be tied to a warming climate?

We know almost certainly that the answer to the first question is yes.

The second question is also certainly answered in the affirmative.

The third--nobody will go out on a limb and say for certain that any one past weather event is directly tied to global warming. But there are very strong ties.

At some point, weather events will certainly be tied to AGW--you can argue against it being true, but you might as well argue that the Sun rises in the west.

Attribution of extreme events shortly after their occurrence stretches the current state-of-the art of climate change assessment. To help foster the growth of this science, this article illustrates some approaches to answering questions about the role of human factors, and the relative role of different natural factors, for six specific extreme weather or climate events of 2011.

    Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 from a Climate Perspective

Does it matter when we will have the ability to tie an extreme weather event to AGW when we know for a fact that we will, in the future, be able to say with certainty that a specific weather event is directly tied to AGW?

I cited recent severe weather events as examples of the reach of weather. From the middle of America, to the West coast, and the East coast. It matters not where you live, climate change can very well affect your well being. Even though war is currently far from the US, extreme weather is not.

[Click to View YouTube Video]

link: Extreme Weather: Impacts of Climate Change
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
Apr 7, 2015 - 04:54pm PT
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Apr 7, 2015 - 05:04pm PT
I'd say there is not much doubt that weather is being affected. You can't have higher water vapor content in the atmosphere without other things changing. This from 2007;

https://www-pls.llnl.gov/?url=science_and_technology-earth_sciences-moisture

Also, more red herrings have been washing ashore with climate change.

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