Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Aug 29, 2013 - 01:09pm PT
Hey Chef,go to the General Accounting Office's website,[those pesky liberal accountants]show me how much we ,the U.S.A.,spend on global warming research,adaptation,and prevention.
Show us.
Till then ,you are just some guy spraying.
As for its going to cost us billions,yeah,death panels,weapons of mass destruction.Your teams spray is just so accurate.
Afraid you are going to lose your pension?
Get a Job.
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Aug 29, 2013 - 01:15pm PT
I'm thinking all our resources will be better utilized in just dealing with the changing climate, seeing how the great minds can't tell us what they would do to roll it back.





Monolith writes:

"Chaz, maybe the boss is smarter than you?"

All the bosses I had any respect for were.
Malemute

Ice climber
the ghost
Aug 29, 2013 - 01:23pm PT
acid rain is a great example

Info on sour gas plants in Alberta and how the emission of SO2 has been decreased through legislation
http://www.environment.gov.ab.ca/info/library/7232.pdf
see figure 13 (last page) for sulphur recovery rate vs year

more info here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claus_process
www.topsoe.com
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Aug 29, 2013 - 01:27pm PT
I'm thinking all our resources will be better utilized in just dealing with the changing climate, seeing how the great minds can't tell us what they would do to roll it back.

I don't know if anyone thinks we can roll back the changes already in motion, but maybe hope to reduce how far and fast they go in the future. We've already bought quite a bit of change in the pipeline.

One discovery in the paleoclimate record has been some large climate swings in the past, out of proportion to any known changes in solar or orbital factors. So they have to be explained by feedbacks where relatively small initial changes, such as solar/orbital variations or transient volcanics, kick off greenhouse-gas changes that amplify the consequences. And along the way, change how the wind blows, the ocean currents flow, and where the rain or snow falls -- which is how you get those abrupt transitions in some ice core records, that show regional heating/cooling much faster than the planet itself could warm or cool.
Mad69Dog

Mountain climber
Superior, CO
Aug 29, 2013 - 01:53pm PT
"Dude, you're the one who led off here with nonsense about Al Gore, "correlative proof," and claims about "the vast majority of the world's leading scientists."

Yes, I realize that was confusing, but it was a troll because I'm so sick of hearing the mainstream press spew what science has "proven" about global warming. And I do agree that Al Gore is a big windbag of nonsense.

"Perhaps that was just a bad start. What do you get from the Abraham et al. (2013) paper I quoted earlier, addressing the ocean temperature, measurement and attribution issues you mention?"

I didn't get anything startlingly new from the Abraham paper. The red flag popped up in my mind WRT ocean temperature about 1980 and the trend continues. We've been seeing the effect of T on sea water vaporization and the increased intensity of tropical storms. I envision a time when FEMA and others convince Congress to not allow the coastline to be rebuilt with disaster relief funds.

......

Chief: "Sorry, but the higher over educated Scientism minds DO NOT UNDERSTAND this very fundamental thought process."

In the first place, science has failed too often. The funding process is part of the problem - researchers get plenty of clues about which hypotheses are likely to get funded. WRT the whole GW debate, I believe the political process has fueled the current failure. Deepwater Horizon was just the latest clue of how deeply our leadership is committed to big oil. I see their involvement in GW as simply a mechanism to bring in more votes.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Aug 29, 2013 - 02:08pm PT
I didn't get anything startlingly new from the Abraham paper. The red flag popped up in my mind WRT ocean temperature about 1980 and the trend continues.

Did you get that Abraham et al are writing not about sea surface temperature but ocean heat content, specifically its measurement, uncertainty and attribution? In the short term, SST and OHC can move in opposite directions.

Also just published:

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling
Yu Kosaka & Shang-Ping Xie

Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century1, 2, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming3, 4, 5, 6, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970–2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.


http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature12534.html
Mad69Dog

Mountain climber
Superior, CO
Aug 29, 2013 - 02:16pm PT
"Did you get that Abraham et al are writing not about sea surface temperature but ocean heat content, specifically its measurement, uncertainty and attribution? In the short term, SST and OHC can move in opposite directions."

Sure, but I heard a similar position voiced by Simonson years ago. I see this as incremental improvement to the knowledge base, which does nothing to depreciate its value. The magnitude of the heat sink is staggering.
TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Aug 29, 2013 - 07:12pm PT
http://www.thepiratescove.us/2013/08/29/if-all-you-see-875/
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Aug 30, 2013 - 12:29am PT
Yesterday i mentioned posting papers about reconstructions of the pronounced swings of climate change, like the little ice age and medieval warm period compared to the late 20th centuries little climate swing. Well lo and behold here is a review paper from co2 science doing exactly that for China.

http://www.co2science.org/subject/c/summaries/chinatemptrends.php

Looks like you doomists have been taking a bit of a beating lately from somebody actually in the research field of atmospheric science. Can't say i feel sorry for you guys.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
Aug 30, 2013 - 12:39am PT
The Chief ...yeah that was me the other day...I recognized you by your plumbers crack when you whizzed by...Did you see my Climate Deniers Suck bumper sticker....? RJ
dirtbag

climber
Aug 30, 2013 - 01:31am PT
^^^^^^^^^ ^^^^^^^^



rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Aug 30, 2013 - 01:36am PT
The Chief, Bruce, Mad69Dog, and even Ed will surely love this peice from Richard Lindzen, just published in the journal of american physicians and surgeons. It touches on many of the things The Chief and i have had to say, new observations from MD, and may answer some of Bruce's disingenuous questioning.

http://www.jpands.org/vol18no3/lindzen.pdf
mountainlion

Trad climber
California
Aug 30, 2013 - 01:39am PT
I will paraphrase quote from you MADDOG69 "to me it is a moot point until we are all getting our energy from WIND, SOLAR, GEOTHERMAL...etc"

How can you be posting in the Chief's defense???

take a stand man...I mean the Chief at least let's everyone know:

1)he's on a fixed income and can't afford to pay the full cost of the energy he uses...

2)he is a TROLL...........

3)he doesn't care about the future of the people on this planet as long as the people in the current time frame are allowed to live within his VIEWPOINT...

4)he "thinks" he is racing in the isle of man on a plethora of bikes when in reality he is pulling wheelies while testing the breaking point of a tire under a "CHIEFS GIRTH" while at an unsafe speed...at least for someone of his girth it is an unsafe speed...for the rest of us who climb...we pedal faster than that...
Mad69Dog

Mountain climber
Superior, CO
Aug 30, 2013 - 07:52am PT
"How exactly does science fail?"

In numerous ways. The most common failing involves the corruption of the process by bias. Science was once thought to be a philosophical search for truth but the bulk of modern science has become a greedy search for wealth.

"I was so puzzled at your statement that I googled " failures of science"

Many laypeople attempt to Google their way towards some level of expertise but in science, one actually has to join the practice in order to become an expert. Supertopo is a climbing forum, not a bastion of science so if you really want to understand climate change, you are hanging out in the wrong place.

"You make some strange statements which make me start to doubt for credentials or marbles. What are your credentials and experience anyway?"

It's awesome that you feel you can assess my marbles in an anonymous climbing forum. And my intent is to remain anonymous here, so no, I will not lay my CV out in front of you. I do that when I publish at my day job, when I review submissions for environmental journals, etc., but here I'm simply speaking up in a climbing forum where a GW thread has generated over 13000 replies and my gut instinct is that most of them were made by people that have had zero involvement in the actual science itself.

I will be honest and say that I received a PhD in analytical organic chemistry over 30 years ago. My career has been diverse, ranging from research in environmental analysis, surface analysis, forensic analysis and molecular spectroscopy. The reason I was hired into the NASA programs at MIRAGE and Intex-B had to do with four research teams that were not satisfied with the analytical performance they achieved in field studies. They simply wanted to improve the accuracy and precision of their measurements. Thus I was involved in modification of the inlet systems - meaning the ports that extended through the hull of the aircraft that are designed to sample the atmospheric air column in order to deliver a subsample of the air into analytical instrumentation. I was also tasked with design and implementation of improved standardization techniques for these same 4 team's studies.

While on these missions, I actually sat at the instruments and collected data. Back on the ground, our teams evaluated and interpreted the data and then wrote publications after the studies were complete. So those are the facts - I design and modify measurement instrumentation to achieve data with minimal bias. Because those four teams saw improvement in the quality of their data, broader discussions followed amongst the scientists aboard these missions - mostly about data quality and the uncertainty associated with the measurements. As an undergrad, I'd learned how to evaluate measurement uncertainty through proper experimental design and in the years since, my contribution to science has been involved with evaluating, understanding and attempting to control the factors that add to measurement uncertainty. Many scientists are content to publish their data as tables of numbers and make no attempt to discuss what their actual in-matrix variability picture looks like. I prefer to clearly present how data quality varies across the measured concentration range and show what effects result from changes in the matrix - in this case: temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, particulate size and concentration, etc.

But step back a minute and tell me why the hell you feel that you can evaluate my credentials as a scientist on a climbing forum. Really?
Mad69Dog

Mountain climber
Superior, CO
Aug 30, 2013 - 08:11am PT
>I will paraphrase quote from you MADDOG69 "to me it is a moot point
>until we are all getting our energy from WIND, SOLAR, GEOTHERMAL...etc"

I see you failed your Paraphrasing 069 class. Maybe you can Google up an online class or for a faster solution, just learn to cut and paste... Let's work with the actual quote, OK? And, by the way, the handle is "Mad69Dog", so get it right. Here is the actual quote:

"Until the majority of the people on the planet are getting their energy from solar, tide, wind, etc., we're going the wrong direction."

>How can you be posting in the Chief's defense???

Simple, he goes against the popular grain. He is an independent thinker. When we all stand and salute popular misconception, progress halts and innovation is starved. The only way science can work is if we look for alternative points of view. The process has a critical element where one is forced to consider that our opinion is flawed. If the researcher refuses to consider alternate outcomes, then he or she will only see what he or she wants to see.

>take a stand man...

My stand was clearly stated when I entered this lay-opinion cesspool: The global heat budget estimates have too much uncertainty to predict that fossil fuel combustion is the dominant contributor to global temperature rise.
Mad69Dog

Mountain climber
Superior, CO
Aug 30, 2013 - 08:45am PT
"Had you ever been at 140-150 mph, you'd certainly understand."

I haven't raced motorcycles since I was an undergrad, and the tech has come so far, you can't compare it to modern racing. I have been over 160 on a friend's tricked out Kawasaki, so I do know that thrill.

Most of my scar tissue was caused by crashing in my racing days so I get a bit queasy seeing crash footage. I had a high speed tank slapper on a big downhill once that still gets replayed in the brain video.

Awesome Youtube clip there, Chief!
Mad69Dog

Mountain climber
Superior, CO
Aug 30, 2013 - 10:03am PT
"As I did, the bike was end over ending and flew right over me as I turned to look back to see where it was."

Anyone that's raced knows how cruel it is to hit the deck then have the bike deliver the ultimate insult. I took a footpeg to the ribs after bottoming the suspension and going over the bars at the bottom of a steep hill. I got permanent damage to C3 out of that, and a nasty burn to boot.

"Like old John Britten showing up at Daytona with his back yard garage hand made marvel and then literally kicking the fields ass!"

I remember it well. 1991 I think. The team I rode for went to Daytona pretty much every year. I only got that brand of humble pie one time and that was '77. It was a thrill seeing the top dogs on their big dollar rides.
Malemute

Ice climber
the ghost
Aug 30, 2013 - 10:20am PT
The global heat budget estimates have too much uncertainty to predict that fossil fuel combustion is the dominant contributor to global temperature rise.
Care to show us numbers & references?
Mad69Dog

Mountain climber
Superior, CO
Aug 30, 2013 - 10:30am PT
>Care to show us numbers & references?

I'll think about it. I mean, you'd need a few dozen big papers just to understand the foundation and hint: the Wikipedia article is not an easy shortcut. Are you willing to put 2000 to 3000 hours into reading the pubs and a few thousand more into checking the balance sheet? If you aren't willing to dig that deep, you are wasting your time. Also, depending on your education and ability, you might need a few years in grad school and a few practicing the craft to be able to understand the pubs.



Hey Chief, I do know some Harley racing history and have respect for it. The first time I saw total domination by a Harley was at a hill climb event. Good God, the power...
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Aug 30, 2013 - 10:33am PT
Balmaseda1 and Trenberth's 2013 paper.

Credit: monolith

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50382/abstract
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