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McHale's Navy

Trad climber
Panorama City, California & living in Seattle
May 25, 2013 - 08:28pm PT
^^^^^^^^ And what are you using as your primary source of travel MacnavY?^^^^^

Travel? Whether or not anyone uses gasoline is not the point of this thread. The point of the thread is what the effects of using gasoline and other fuels are. I'm sure I use far less oil than many do.

Apparently we can't talk about hundreds of Sperm Whale deaths, perhaps over 1,000, and the cover-up of same during the Gulf Oil Spill, because we use oil. Americans don't want to know the consequences of their actions, or rather, somebody else made that decision for them.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
May 25, 2013 - 08:32pm PT
Rick! I have always wanted to read the famous paper that was published in The Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons! I always see these conservatives citing that paper in that journal, but have never had the link to the actual article. You really need to Google that publication up and read about its reputation. Wiki really has them by the nuts.

OK. I knew that I needed a little background on this article, because I see it used in different ways. I have never heard of the journal in any other place. I've never seen any article referenced from any article published by the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons.

The wiki page was VERY interesting. I've never seen a journal described in this way:

I wanted to check out the publication first, because there are good publications and there are lousy publications which have crappy reviewers. I know the best Geology publications and I'm sure that Ed knows the best Physics journals. It is a feather in your cap to be published in the major journals, which every person in the field will see and possibly refute. Papers get refuted all of the time, and this is just a part of the process. It sucks to be wrong, though. The physical sciences progress and things change, though.

OK. The AAPS is a sham organization which reportedly (by Wikipedia) holds different "positions." A journal shouldn't have positions, but scientists or even groups, such as the National Academy of Sciences can get together and publish positions. They can certainly be shot down, so they are fairly rare, such as their position that AGW is real. This is the National Academy of Scientists, not the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons, who dabbles in HIV not causing AIDS, and other really pathetic positions, mainly political or religious in nature, rather than pure science. From what I learned in 15 minutes, the Journal isn't recognized anywhere as a peer reviewed journal. I haven't checked them all, but found this:

An editorial in Chemical & Engineering News described JPandS as a "purveyor of utter nonsense."[63] Investigative journalist Brian Deer wrote that the journal is the "house magazine of a right-wing American fringe group [AAPS]" and "is barely credible as an independent forum."[64

That is on their wiki page. Apparently this journal exists for the purpose of getting anti science positions a "peer reviewed" stamp of approval.

It gets even better:

After the petition appeared, the National Academy of Sciences said in a 1998 news release that "The NAS Council would like to make it clear that this petition has nothing to do with the National Academy of Sciences and that the manuscript was not published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences or in any other peer-reviewed journal."[31] It also said "The petition does not reflect the conclusions of expert reports of the Academy." The NAS further noted that its own prior published study had shown that "even given the considerable uncertainties in our knowledge of the relevant phenomena, greenhouse warming poses a potential threat sufficient to merit prompt responses. Investment in mitigation measures acts as insurance protection against the great uncertainties and the possibility of dramatic surprises."[31]

Robinson responded in a 1998 article in Science, "I used the Proceedings as a model, but only to put the information in a format that scientists like to read, not to fool people into thinking it is from a journal."[30] A 2006 article the magazine Vanity Fair stated: "Today, Seitz admits that 'it was stupid' for the Oregon activists to copy the academy's format. Still, he doesn't understand why the academy felt compelled to disavow the petition, which he continues to cite as proof that it is "not true" there is a scientific consensus on global warming".[32]

I will read the article this evening.

Hey. I made it into the New Yorker today. Only the online version so far...
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 25, 2013 - 08:47pm PT
Base - I don't know where you were going with the tephi but it made me think of something I was wondering about. If the warming of the airmass is largely limited to the lower layer as I saw somewhere was suggested, then there will be an increased temperature gradient and thus greater instability potential, at least for that layer. This, to my mind anyway, suggests perhaps a greater likelyhood of strong thunderstorm cells and tornados. You being from Ohio maybe know how to answer this?
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
May 25, 2013 - 08:50pm PT
It is a feather in your cap to be published in the major journals, which every person in the field will see and possibly refute. Papers get refuted all of the time, and this is just a part of the process. It sucks to be wrong, though. The physical sciences progress and things change, though.

Damn, BASE, that was worth checking in on this thread for. Cheers!
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 25, 2013 - 09:05pm PT
Whether or not anyone uses gasoline is not the point of this thread. The point of the thread is what the effects of using gasoline and other fuels is.

Perfect example of the hypocrisy ya'll enjoy participating in. Even when Chiloe takes them trips up north. All on fossil fuel driven vehicles. Yup.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 25, 2013 - 09:28pm PT
Perfect example of the hypocrisy ya'll enjoy participating in. Even when Chiloe takes them trips up north. All on fossil fuel driven vehicles. Yup.

Damn you're thick Chief. How is it that you are so incapable of grasping simple concepts? Of course we all drive around burning gas. That is an imperative of the society we live in. That other thread about all the various individual efforts one can do to decrease CO2 production is great but the real significant change can only occur through government policy forcing changes in industry. The fact that there are reasonably priced solar panels available is only because the technology development was ramped and scaled up. Electric vehicles? increase the demand with infrastructure and incentives in the cities and fund it through a carbon tax. Not possible for you out in the bush? So be it - structure it so you're exempt. Whats the point of pointing fingers at individuals for supposed transgressions when the only thing that ever works on this scale is developing new practical technology and making it available.

But anyway thats cart before the horse. Half of all americans still think the science is "bad".
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
May 25, 2013 - 09:35pm PT
Chef ,i just want to thank you for riding that bike and reducing your carbon footprint by 75% over driving that f-150.Even wide open 2 cylinders use far less fossil fuel.
Sorry i will probably ruin your gas mileage now ,because you dont want to be confused for someone thats interested in saving our planet,so you wont ride the bike,now.

Lake placid,new york, today 18"
Lake placid,new york, today 18"
Credit: protect our winters

Yeah nothing is changing.Thursday morning it was 91f.
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 25, 2013 - 10:55pm PT
Sorry i will probably ruin your gas mileage now ,because you dont want to be confused for someone thats interested in saving our planet,so you wont ride the bike,now.

Starting next week I will start to ride my other bike to work and back every other day. It uses my legs for power. 30 mile round trip. 3-4 times a week through the Fall. I do it for me. Not for the modern western civ masses that spend 90% of their day with their faces and fingers stuck to one of these.

That is what you are saving this world for. Got it.

BTW: I don't own one nor will I ever. Got an old flip phone that is in my tank bag and only used for emergencies. I do not even know how to text.

through government policy forcing changes in industry

You of course are speaking in terms of the current practices of the IRS. Got it. The Govt's got watch over us and make us, you all of us, do it.
mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
May 25, 2013 - 11:27pm PT
I do it for me.

That's because you are so awesome
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
May 25, 2013 - 11:42pm PT
What for Base-something to do about geophysics in the success of the modern
oil industry? A lot of us americans are very encouraged by your industry's success. Anyway tropospheres-aren't those bright colored beach balls popular in the tropics? Here is a serious question-we all know variations in the suns magnetic field allows more or less cosmic rays to penetrate (through earths magnetic field) to our lower troposphere and markedly influence cloud creation-Earths own magnetic field is variable as evidenced by past polar reversals and magnetic pole migration-what causes this and what values or ranges of variability in cosmic ray deflection is attached to such events?

Ed-their seems to be large portions of the spectrum ignored in TSI values, some like UV are known to have a much higher rate of variability than what is assigned to the TSI. Is anyone working on this and figuring out their effects, if any, on earth systems.I've heard estimates of as much as a 1.5c temp reduction by 2035 if the period of minima is as pronounced as the Maunder, so the .2c value you mention, is that after subtraction of the anticipated CAGW increase and if so which model? Also since solar minima also correspond with a reduction of solar magnetic field wouldn't the temp decrease be amplified by increased cloud cover from cosmic rays as Cerns CLOUD study indicated by some interpretations?
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 26, 2013 - 12:50am PT
Mr. Sumner.

You need to read this thread that ML started.

http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=2146320&tn=20

We are dealing with backwoods commune eco freaks here. Forget the Utopianism. Waiting to read someone post that they wipe their ass with their bare fingers so as not to use any wood products and piss into a reversed fan for a shower in order to save on heat for their hot water heater. Several Fred Flinstones in the lot. Coasting down hills and making a point to go at Freds speed on the highway. Talking to these loons is. Never mind. Modern Western humans.

Weschrist, I knew you were jobless by choice. I say you are and have been on the States payroll. Socialism at it's best. Unemployment. Bumming off the tax payers hard earned moneys. All so you did not have to commute. Now that tops em all. Not cool.
TGT

Social climber
So Cal
May 26, 2013 - 01:15am PT
I've been climbing at Tahquitz every Memorial day weekend for the last 20 years or so.

Everyone leaves town for the long weekend and you pretty much have the place to yourself.

I rarely ever have taken a windbreaker up this late in the year.

Today I did, and was glad I did.

Still shivering in the shade with it on in the afternoon.

Chance of snow Tuesday.

The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 26, 2013 - 01:27am PT
So ED, what is your pos on Lindzen’s ‘‘infrared iris’’ hypothesis of climate stabilization?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iris_hypothesis

Also, your opinion on this study by Roy W. Spencer, William D. Braswell, John R. Christy, and Justin Hnilo that supports Lindzens work.

Cloud and Radiation Budget Changes Associated with Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007GL029698/abstract


The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 26, 2013 - 02:07am PT
Them "runs" are going to be an ongoing deal for quite a while in order to get some good solid viable data to prove or disprove. Eh ED!. Seems them runs keep bouncing back and forth. Long time. Pretty much on the same deal as many other hypothesis that need several runs. Many "several" runs. Got a lot of work ahead of em. Lots. Things/climate is a changing.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
May 26, 2013 - 02:58am PT
Chief is Svensmark 2012 paper available online. I thought he did his own experiment (called AHUS or something) before cern CLOUD and came up with a much higher seed count. Hey, just call me Rick i'm not the formal type.
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 26, 2013 - 08:28am PT
ED:

Lindzen hasn't responded in the scientific literature, but apparently is complaining that there is too much reductionism, that a simple argument should suffice.

He did, informally as did another "published" PP'd study.

In 2012, Lindzen made the following (informal) statement.

... the critics claim that I asserted that the water vapor feedback may be negative. This may well be the case, but that is not what I have been suggesting. Rather, we find that the total longwave feedback (to which the water vapor feedback is one contributor – thin upper level cirrus are another, and the two are so intrinsically dependent that ignorance of the latter leads to ignorance of the former) is negative, and unambiguously so (that is to say, it was identified clearly even at zero lag). This has actually been confirmed by Trenberth and Fasullo (2009) who find in their analysis that feedbacks are primarily shortwave feedbacks. Given the noise in the shortwave component, claims of positive feedbacks in the shortwave based on simple regression are highly suspect. I would suggest that the claimed ‘body of observational and theoretical evidence’ for a positive water vapor feedback is largely a product of wishful thinking. As to so-called modeling “evidence,” it is the models that we are testing; the model results should not be confused with evidence. The critics allow for the possibility of negative shortwave feedbacks, but claim that most models do not have a strong shortwave feedback anyway. There are a number of important points buried in that innocent sounding claim. The amplification depends on one over the quantity (1- the sum of all feedback factors)=1/(1-f). The long term defense of the water vapor feedback stems from the fact that it provides, in current models, a value of about 0.5 to f. This already provides a gain of a factor of two. But, more importantly, if one then adds 0.3 to f from shortwave feedbacks, the amplification jumps to five. Add 0.5 and it jumps to infinity. It is this extreme sensitivity to small additions that allows models to suggest large amounts of warming rather than the relatively modest amounts associated with the assumed water vapor feedback. As recent studies have shown, the feedback is likely to be much smaller than appears in current models, and hence, the potential for large warming is also dramatically reduced.

http://www.thegwpf.org/richard-lindzen-response-to-the-critique-of-my-house-of-commons-lecture/

In 2012 scientists from the University of Auckland analyzed satellite data and found that the average height of clouds declined between 2000 and 2010. The decline was a result of a reduction in high altitude cirrus clouds. The average global cloud height is linked to the average global temperature—generally, the higher the average cloud height, the higher the average surface temperature, and vice versa.

http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1112479879/falling-clouds-may-combat-global-warming/





For today.

"Each separate being in the Universe returns to it's original common source. That ultimate return to the source is serenity. If you never realize that source, you will constantly live in confusion returning blind and deaf. Once you accept the source, all things are one and your existence becomes whole.

Empty your mind of all thoughts and knowledge. Watch the turmoil of all beings who think they know. The source is power. The source is peace. The source is greater than all. Remember those in turmoil. Then the Universe. The infinite Universe always knows."
mountainlion

Trad climber
California
May 26, 2013 - 09:21am PT
Chief was that a pic or your son and daughter texting with their faces pressed to thier i-phones---truly depressing that they didn't follow in your footsteps and choose to live in a backwoods commune LIKE YOU!!

TGT--it is called CLIMATE CHANGE get it?? That's where the climate is different than it is supposed to be or has historically been...your post and Wilbeers photo of 18 inches of SNOW on MAY 25 is evidence of CLIMATE CHANGE---Wilbeer just gets it while you seem to have your head buried in a place the sun has never shined.
mountainlion

Trad climber
California
May 26, 2013 - 10:08am PT
Chief I love how you bash communism and then take out a loan to buy solar so you can plug into a COMMUNITY solar plan.

I also love that you called yourself a SELFISH PIG at least your honest about your place in the world...Alpha male wolves do feed themselves the best and the most but they do share and take food to the lowest wolves in the pack.

24 years of service with the navy and dozens of trips risking your life and limb for us taxpayers killing the bad people...I thought you said you were involved in rescue for the navy soldiers doing the killing (could be wrong) how about you enlighten me. Honorable either way but there is a difference in COMBAT and RESCUE...

By the way I do have respect for you but truly don't think there is anything worth emulating about your personality. Truly strong people help and take care of the weak...You strike me as a "RINGKNOCKER" being in the military I know you know what that is.

Were you born on third base and grow up thinking you hit a triple?

Ed and Base have both given you examples of how to explain the symbols, acronyms, and abbreviations in graphs and scientific papers where are your explanations and sources for the graphs you post?

If you haven't noticed I take pleasure in picking on people who are themselves bullies...why...because the truth hurts...if you were weak or injured you wouldn't get anything but empathy from me.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 26, 2013 - 10:17am PT
Hey, just call me Rick i'm not the formal type.


Watch your step Sumner. Consider yourself blessed that he grants you a Mr. Sumner but don't even hint for a second that you expect to be elevated to the Chiefs ranking. Go sling yourself around on a long line for a few years first.

Here The Chief demonstrates climate science for real men:



mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
May 26, 2013 - 10:51am PT
I knew you were jobless by choice. I say you are and have been on the States payroll.

And you were dead wrong about that too... just like everything else on this thread. What an idiot... and angry, short, old idiot.
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