Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
May 25, 2013 - 11:27pm PT
I do it for me.

That's because you are so awesome
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
May 25, 2013 - 11:42pm PT
What for Base-something to do about geophysics in the success of the modern
oil industry? A lot of us americans are very encouraged by your industry's success. Anyway tropospheres-aren't those bright colored beach balls popular in the tropics? Here is a serious question-we all know variations in the suns magnetic field allows more or less cosmic rays to penetrate (through earths magnetic field) to our lower troposphere and markedly influence cloud creation-Earths own magnetic field is variable as evidenced by past polar reversals and magnetic pole migration-what causes this and what values or ranges of variability in cosmic ray deflection is attached to such events?

Ed-their seems to be large portions of the spectrum ignored in TSI values, some like UV are known to have a much higher rate of variability than what is assigned to the TSI. Is anyone working on this and figuring out their effects, if any, on earth systems.I've heard estimates of as much as a 1.5c temp reduction by 2035 if the period of minima is as pronounced as the Maunder, so the .2c value you mention, is that after subtraction of the anticipated CAGW increase and if so which model? Also since solar minima also correspond with a reduction of solar magnetic field wouldn't the temp decrease be amplified by increased cloud cover from cosmic rays as Cerns CLOUD study indicated by some interpretations?
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 26, 2013 - 12:50am PT
Mr. Sumner.

You need to read this thread that ML started.

http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=2146320&tn=20

We are dealing with backwoods commune eco freaks here. Forget the Utopianism. Waiting to read someone post that they wipe their ass with their bare fingers so as not to use any wood products and piss into a reversed fan for a shower in order to save on heat for their hot water heater. Several Fred Flinstones in the lot. Coasting down hills and making a point to go at Freds speed on the highway. Talking to these loons is. Never mind. Modern Western humans.

Weschrist, I knew you were jobless by choice. I say you are and have been on the States payroll. Socialism at it's best. Unemployment. Bumming off the tax payers hard earned moneys. All so you did not have to commute. Now that tops em all. Not cool.
TGT

Social climber
So Cal
May 26, 2013 - 01:15am PT
I've been climbing at Tahquitz every Memorial day weekend for the last 20 years or so.

Everyone leaves town for the long weekend and you pretty much have the place to yourself.

I rarely ever have taken a windbreaker up this late in the year.

Today I did, and was glad I did.

Still shivering in the shade with it on in the afternoon.

Chance of snow Tuesday.

The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 26, 2013 - 01:27am PT
So ED, what is your pos on Lindzen’s ‘‘infrared iris’’ hypothesis of climate stabilization?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iris_hypothesis

Also, your opinion on this study by Roy W. Spencer, William D. Braswell, John R. Christy, and Justin Hnilo that supports Lindzens work.

Cloud and Radiation Budget Changes Associated with Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007GL029698/abstract


The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 26, 2013 - 02:07am PT
Them "runs" are going to be an ongoing deal for quite a while in order to get some good solid viable data to prove or disprove. Eh ED!. Seems them runs keep bouncing back and forth. Long time. Pretty much on the same deal as many other hypothesis that need several runs. Many "several" runs. Got a lot of work ahead of em. Lots. Things/climate is a changing.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
May 26, 2013 - 02:58am PT
Chief is Svensmark 2012 paper available online. I thought he did his own experiment (called AHUS or something) before cern CLOUD and came up with a much higher seed count. Hey, just call me Rick i'm not the formal type.
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 26, 2013 - 08:28am PT
ED:

Lindzen hasn't responded in the scientific literature, but apparently is complaining that there is too much reductionism, that a simple argument should suffice.

He did, informally as did another "published" PP'd study.

In 2012, Lindzen made the following (informal) statement.

... the critics claim that I asserted that the water vapor feedback may be negative. This may well be the case, but that is not what I have been suggesting. Rather, we find that the total longwave feedback (to which the water vapor feedback is one contributor – thin upper level cirrus are another, and the two are so intrinsically dependent that ignorance of the latter leads to ignorance of the former) is negative, and unambiguously so (that is to say, it was identified clearly even at zero lag). This has actually been confirmed by Trenberth and Fasullo (2009) who find in their analysis that feedbacks are primarily shortwave feedbacks. Given the noise in the shortwave component, claims of positive feedbacks in the shortwave based on simple regression are highly suspect. I would suggest that the claimed ‘body of observational and theoretical evidence’ for a positive water vapor feedback is largely a product of wishful thinking. As to so-called modeling “evidence,” it is the models that we are testing; the model results should not be confused with evidence. The critics allow for the possibility of negative shortwave feedbacks, but claim that most models do not have a strong shortwave feedback anyway. There are a number of important points buried in that innocent sounding claim. The amplification depends on one over the quantity (1- the sum of all feedback factors)=1/(1-f). The long term defense of the water vapor feedback stems from the fact that it provides, in current models, a value of about 0.5 to f. This already provides a gain of a factor of two. But, more importantly, if one then adds 0.3 to f from shortwave feedbacks, the amplification jumps to five. Add 0.5 and it jumps to infinity. It is this extreme sensitivity to small additions that allows models to suggest large amounts of warming rather than the relatively modest amounts associated with the assumed water vapor feedback. As recent studies have shown, the feedback is likely to be much smaller than appears in current models, and hence, the potential for large warming is also dramatically reduced.

http://www.thegwpf.org/richard-lindzen-response-to-the-critique-of-my-house-of-commons-lecture/

In 2012 scientists from the University of Auckland analyzed satellite data and found that the average height of clouds declined between 2000 and 2010. The decline was a result of a reduction in high altitude cirrus clouds. The average global cloud height is linked to the average global temperature—generally, the higher the average cloud height, the higher the average surface temperature, and vice versa.

http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1112479879/falling-clouds-may-combat-global-warming/





For today.

"Each separate being in the Universe returns to it's original common source. That ultimate return to the source is serenity. If you never realize that source, you will constantly live in confusion returning blind and deaf. Once you accept the source, all things are one and your existence becomes whole.

Empty your mind of all thoughts and knowledge. Watch the turmoil of all beings who think they know. The source is power. The source is peace. The source is greater than all. Remember those in turmoil. Then the Universe. The infinite Universe always knows."
mountainlion

Trad climber
California
May 26, 2013 - 09:21am PT
Chief was that a pic or your son and daughter texting with their faces pressed to thier i-phones---truly depressing that they didn't follow in your footsteps and choose to live in a backwoods commune LIKE YOU!!

TGT--it is called CLIMATE CHANGE get it?? That's where the climate is different than it is supposed to be or has historically been...your post and Wilbeers photo of 18 inches of SNOW on MAY 25 is evidence of CLIMATE CHANGE---Wilbeer just gets it while you seem to have your head buried in a place the sun has never shined.
mountainlion

Trad climber
California
May 26, 2013 - 10:08am PT
Chief I love how you bash communism and then take out a loan to buy solar so you can plug into a COMMUNITY solar plan.

I also love that you called yourself a SELFISH PIG at least your honest about your place in the world...Alpha male wolves do feed themselves the best and the most but they do share and take food to the lowest wolves in the pack.

24 years of service with the navy and dozens of trips risking your life and limb for us taxpayers killing the bad people...I thought you said you were involved in rescue for the navy soldiers doing the killing (could be wrong) how about you enlighten me. Honorable either way but there is a difference in COMBAT and RESCUE...

By the way I do have respect for you but truly don't think there is anything worth emulating about your personality. Truly strong people help and take care of the weak...You strike me as a "RINGKNOCKER" being in the military I know you know what that is.

Were you born on third base and grow up thinking you hit a triple?

Ed and Base have both given you examples of how to explain the symbols, acronyms, and abbreviations in graphs and scientific papers where are your explanations and sources for the graphs you post?

If you haven't noticed I take pleasure in picking on people who are themselves bullies...why...because the truth hurts...if you were weak or injured you wouldn't get anything but empathy from me.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 26, 2013 - 10:17am PT
Hey, just call me Rick i'm not the formal type.


Watch your step Sumner. Consider yourself blessed that he grants you a Mr. Sumner but don't even hint for a second that you expect to be elevated to the Chiefs ranking. Go sling yourself around on a long line for a few years first.

Here The Chief demonstrates climate science for real men:



mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
May 26, 2013 - 10:51am PT
I knew you were jobless by choice. I say you are and have been on the States payroll.

And you were dead wrong about that too... just like everything else on this thread. What an idiot... and angry, short, old idiot.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 26, 2013 - 11:00am PT
Hey.... What exactly did happen to Blahblah anyway?



rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
May 26, 2013 - 12:25pm PT
Yes i agree Bruce, he's not called the Chief for nothing.

It seems clear- Lindzen's answers to the critics were convincing, his argument partially validated by observation, the critics only by erroneous value assumptions and repeated calculation. Yet the projections of their own models consistently fall below expectation. Why don't they go back to the drawing boards to find what they have missed.

I assume nobody takes Svensmark seriously?
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 26, 2013 - 12:38pm PT
How would we know? For that matter, how would you know?


from Svensmarks wiki page:

Debate updates [edit]

More recently, Laken et al (2012)[30] found that new high quality satellite data show that the El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation is responsible for most changes in cloud cover at the global and regional levels. They also found that Galactic Cosmic Rays, and total solar irradiance did not have any statistically-significant influence on changes in cloud cover whatsoever.

Lockwood (2012)[31] conducted a thorough review of the scientific literature on the "solar influence" on climate. It was found that when this influence is included appropriately into climate models causal climate change claims such as those made by Svensmark are shown to have been exaggerated. Lockwood's review also highlighted the strength of evidence in favor of the solar influence on regional climates.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 26, 2013 - 01:01pm PT
There is a little known psychological process whereby knowledge, skill and expertise in one capacity of human endeavor can transmorgiphy into wholly unrelated fields. This is known as "wisdom".

Not all humans are endowed with the this ability to transmorgiphy, but we are fortunate that those who can take it upon themselves to enlighten us.


Here, The Chief transmorgiphizes upon his knowledge and experience with stonehenge, and how exactly the "educated idiots" consistently get it wrong:


BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
May 26, 2013 - 01:06pm PT
This debate has nothing to do with how good a climber you are or how many medals you have. It is a science question.

Ed. Please read and comment on this. There is a problem and it is called Junk Science. Carl Sagan wrote an entire book on this topic.

This oft cited "peer reviewed article" is a piece of shit! It is a good op-ed, but it isn't very good science. You and The Chief could do a better job.

http://www.petitionproject.org/review_article.php

I read that article last night, Rick. It isn't really a scientific article. It is more like an op-ed. He contradicts himself and although he did list some references as he wrote along, it didn't come close to the 132 references cited at the bottom.

I did read about the organization. It is basically a political deal. A toilet bowl for bad science so that people can say that there is no consensus. It has positions on abortion and AIDS that are off their nut.

Sorry. It really is just awful.

There will probably never be a true consensus. Science doesn't work that way, but I don't know anyone who still believes in geosynclinal theory, which was the theory that bit the dust when Plate Tectonics came out. There may be some old retired guys who haven't accepted it, but Plate Tectonics is an exquisite theory. It never fails and obeys newer discoveries. We are pretty damn sure about that one.

That paper is a black eye. I don't know why they have it up, but I've seen it cited in political arguments. I get a couple of informal society bulletins with articles. I saw one dissing global warming and they cited that paper. I remembered it because I had never heard of it, and it is a ludicrously named journal for a climate paper.

Here it is, if you want some good reading of poor writing. Curious, because he had been the head of the NAS before he began a new career writing papers for the tobacco industry. They chime in on AIDS, Abortion, all kinds of stuff, and they do it in very strange ways. This isn't science. It isn't even policy.

mountainlion

Trad climber
California
May 26, 2013 - 01:10pm PT
nail meet the hammer (Bruce)!!! that was priceless^^^I can't believe the chief's ancestor "Duncan" singlehandedly built Stonehenge!!
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
May 26, 2013 - 01:14pm PT
Sorry, it really is just awful






BASE,You could not be more correct,that is not science.
mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
May 26, 2013 - 01:18pm PT
Nice BASE.
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