Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Messages 7401 - 7420 of total 26745 in this topic << First  |  < Previous  |  Show All  |  Next >  |  Last >>
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
May 25, 2013 - 04:02pm PT
Weschrist...How did you get The Chief to pose on that dirt-bike...? Sick..!
mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
May 25, 2013 - 04:27pm PT
He does do a mean doughnut!

Rumor has it he used to blow bubbles back in the day too...

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
May 25, 2013 - 04:48pm PT
Base, i dont know what to say, i guess im broken hearted. Anyway Base probably didn't want to answer the questions because we are at a point in the small orbital eccentricity cycle that makes winters in the northern hemisphere several days shorter. He also knows quite well the effects of basaltic volcanic eruptions. Here is just one.

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=7545&tid=28

McHale's Navy

Trad climber
Panorama City, California & living in Seattle
May 25, 2013 - 05:13pm PT
This is totally normal - don't need no stinkin hurricane;
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013/05/25/186614078/flooding-brings-san-antonio-to-standstill-kills-one?ft=1&f=1001
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 25, 2013 - 05:19pm PT
Ode to the Chief




The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 25, 2013 - 05:20pm PT
ED ED ED.

You are missing the point. 2003 to current. Not 1850 to date. Not 1976 to date. Not 1945 to date. Use 2003 to date. That is ten years of time. The last ten years. There has NOT been any warming according to RSS, UAH and HadCrut REAL TIME data. Forget "variability" ED. Fact is the warming trend Globally has stalled according to the data from those three surface and satellite data collecting entities. Period. That is reality.

Let's make it easy for you and the rest that do not want to look at the point at hand. Instead of using of either 1850 or 1976 as the starting point. Use 2003 for HadCrut and 1999 for both RSS and UAH. Combine the three, the warming has stalled and even begun a downward trend from 2003. 2003 ED. Get it.

Now, refute the data of all three entities from 2003 onward. NOT 1850 or 1976. Plot the data (RSS, UAH & HadCrut) from 2003 to date. Let's see what you come up with.

mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
May 25, 2013 - 05:43pm PT
You are missing the point. 2003 to current.

Yeah Ed, you are missing the point. 2003 to current is relevant because The Chaff says so. The whole GCC debate hinges on what happened since 2003. Apparently 2003 was chosen because natural trends are only applicable at decadal time scales... and the only changes we care about are from the LAST decade.

Anything before that can ONLY be used to support the position that there is variability, therefore there is no GCC.

Anything after that can ONLY be used to support the position that temperature is going down, therefore there is no GCC.

Don't you get it Ed? There is no GCC because Chaff says so. Period. Simple. Done.


Instead of using of either 1850 or 1976 as the starting point. Use 2003 for HadCrut and 1999 for both RSS and UAH.

Yes, instead of looking at the longest record available... cherry pick some arbitrary years that support your position and start there. This method is particularly useful when you don't understand how the data was collected or exactly what was being measured.

That's how science works after all.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
May 25, 2013 - 05:55pm PT
But these goes to eleven!

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
May 25, 2013 - 06:02pm PT
Yes Chief their degree of circular reasoning makes them so dizzy they can't see the forest for the trees.

Bruce-we are denialists of what-something that has not happened, and as mounting evidence shows, will not happen anywhere near the extent predicted by CAGW worship.Take a deep breath to oxygenate and look at the CAGW generated graphs The Chief is posting buddy.

Ed, you do of course agree our sun is a variable star, don't you? Where is proof of longer term cycles where the currently recognized degree of variability is temporally extended at least, if not heightened-well look under those "smoothed" out graphs for the real extent of change of periods like The little ice age, The Medieval warm period, The Dark ages, The Roman Warm period, etc. etc. Are historical accounts allowed as proxies,are non cherry picked tree ring data allowed as proxies,is carbon 14 calendrical readjustment allowed as proxies, etc. etc. ?
Norton

Social climber
the Wastelands
May 25, 2013 - 06:05pm PT
This thread has been LEBified

resistance is futile



The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 25, 2013 - 06:14pm PT
Yes Chief their degree of circular reasoning makes them so dizzy they can't see the forest for the trees.

Not even that Mr. Sumner. They are far to busy evaluating where the trees may have come from. Whether a natural or human planting process. Then discounting any that "may" be out of place and "could have" been planted from human hands. In other words, too busy with the proverbial "Got to follow the consensus" blinders that are sutred to their temples. Do you expect anything less from any Utopian.
new world order2

climber
May 25, 2013 - 06:47pm PT
Hi Ed H.

Care to post your thoughts on Monsanto, and GMO food, on the newly created Pull ups against Monsanto, thread
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
Panorama City, California & living in Seattle
May 25, 2013 - 07:02pm PT
I don't know if there are any out there, but being a being a comedian doing a Climate Change Skeptic routine could be a hit.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
May 25, 2013 - 07:06pm PT
Any converts yet?

Yes McHale this IS funny.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
Panorama City, California & living in Seattle
May 25, 2013 - 07:13pm PT
Makes me wish I was a comic.
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 25, 2013 - 07:20pm PT
Now back to the waste of tax payers (millions) moneys in the climate modelling scam. Of course those here who pray daily to them models will instantly object.

“Funding of multi-decadal regional climate predictions by the National Science Foundation which cannot be verified in terms of accuracy is not only a poor use of tax payer funds, but is misleading policymakers and others on the actual skill that exists in predicting changes [in the climate] in the future.”
R.A. Pielke Sr

The Failure Of Dynamic Downscaling As Adding Value to Multi-Decadal Regional Climate Prediction
The main issues, as I summarize from our paper are:

1. As a necessary condition for an accurate prediction, the multi-decadal global climate model simulations must include all first-order climate forcings and feedbacks. However, they do not [see for example: NRC, 2005; Pielke Sr. et al., 2009].

2. These global multi-decadal predictions are unable to skillfully simulate major atmospheric circulation features such the Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO], the North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], El Niño and La Niña, and the South Asian monsoon [Pielke Sr., 2010; Annamalai et al., 2007].

3. While dynamic regional downscaling yield higher spatial resolution, the regional climate models are strongly dependent on the lateral boundary conditions and interior nudging by their parent global models [e.g., see Rockel et al., 2008]. Large-scale climate errors in the global models are retained and could even be amplified by the higher spatial resolution regional models.

4. Since as reported, the global multi-decadal climate model predictions cannot accurately predict circulation features such as the PDO, NAO, El Niño, and La Niña [Compo et al., 2011] they cannot provide accurate lateral boundary conditions and interior nudging to the regional climate models.

5. The regional models themselves do not have the domain scale (or two-way interaction) to skillfully predict these larger-scale atmospheric features.

6. There is also only one-way interaction between regional and global models which is not physically consistent. If the regional model significantly alters the atmospheric and/or ocean circulations, there is no way for this information to alter the larger-scale circulation features which are being fed into the regional model through the lateral boundary conditions and nudging.

7. When higher spatial analyses of land use and other forcings are considered in the regional domain, the errors and uncertainty from the larger model still persists thus rendering the added complexity and details ineffective [Ray et al. 2010; Mishra et al. 2010].

8. The lateral boundary conditions for input to regional downscaling require regional-scale information from a global forecast model. However the global model does not have this regional-scale information due to its limited spatial resolution. This is, however, a logical paradox since the regional model needs something that can only be acquired by a regional model (or regional observations). Therefore, the acquisition of lateral boundary conditions with the needed spatial resolution becomes logically impossible.

Finally, There is sometimes an incorrect assumption that although global climate models cannot predict future climate change as an initial value problem, they can predict future climate statistics as a boundary value problem [Palmer et al., 2008]. With respect to weather patterns, for the downscaling regional (and global) models to add value over and beyond what is available from the historical, recent paleo-record, and worse case sequence of days, however, they must be able to skillfully predict the changes in the regional weather statistics.

There is only value for predicting climate change, however, if they could skillfully predict the changes in the statistics of the weather and other aspects of the climate system. There is no evidence, however, that the model can predict changes in these climate statistics even in hindcast. As highlighted in Dessai et al. [2009] the finer and time-space based downscaled information can be “misconstrued as accurate”, but the ability to get this finer-scale information does not necessarily translate into increased confidence in the downscaled scenario [Wilby, 2010].


Pielke Sr., R.A., R. Wilby, D. Niyogi, F. Hossain, K. Dairuku, J. Adegoke, G. Kallos, T. Seastedt, and K. Suding, 2011: Dealing with complexity and extreme events using a bottom-up, resource-based vulnerability perspective.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
May 25, 2013 - 07:21pm PT
There was a CO2 forced hothouse event as Pangea broke up in the later Mesozoic, which was a time of great vulcanism. You can find Cretaceous dinosaur and temperate flora fossils in Arctic Alaska, and at the time of deposition the fossil beds were closer to the magnetic pole than they are now. Yes, we know how to measure the latitude where rocks were deposited through time using paleomag data. It is very valuable information if used properly.

That event has been well studied, so I will describe it in short posts. It is extremely relevant to the CO2 increase today, because we have a very good idea of CO2 concentrations at that point in time.

First, I must set the stage here, and I'm not sure if I will have enough free time to argue with these two fellows.

Chief. Do you even believe in science? I remember you saying that God turned on all of the lights in our universe at the same time, and the time it took for light to travel to our telescopes (or instrument, as you prefer) was instantly created.

You also seem to have a hard time with people who go to college. Didn't you say as much? I want this clear because we are getting into a lot of really new science here, and all you are concentrating on is statistics and how to misuse them. Don't worry. This is very common unless you are used to working with numbers, so ignorance in this area is forgiveable. Ed basically just gave you a lesson in the statistics of small numbers, which is meaningless. Statistics improve as the dataset grows.

I'm not trying to be mean.

So I'm setting the stage for a scientific argument here with Rick and The Chief. Anyone else is free to step in.

Does anyone know what the troposphere is?
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
May 25, 2013 - 07:25pm PT
Yes.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
May 25, 2013 - 07:43pm PT
Does anyone know what this is:

Credit: BASE104

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
May 25, 2013 - 07:45pm PT
No come on now Basey, remember you are not talking to me anymore? Besides you refused to allow the heresy of answer to my questions passing your lips, so to speak.

Anyway Mama, bless her heart, has me doing the delayed spring cleanup and roto tilling of compost into our king size and hugely productive garden so i don't have much time till later.

Our ever vigilant friend Ron (where is he by the way?) sent me this link to post. I think we've all seen it before but it is still useful in refreshing closed minds.

http://www.petitionproject.org/review_article.php
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