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mountainlion

Trad climber
California
May 25, 2013 - 07:55am PT
Chief thanks for the quote below:

"As far as your question, my kids live no where near me. They are city dwellers. But if they did, they would most assuredly be part of the local Vol Fire Dept. as most of the 28 families that reside in my secluded community are active members of. You see, as a community, we work together to take care of one another. Lots of planning and training for just that type of scenario you ask about. All due to the fact that we have accepted that wild fires are part of the local ecosystem. They have happened many times in the past and we most certainly know they will happen again. Thus we do our best to prepare for the worst. But we go on with our daily lives. Not in fear of what "may" happen."

THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT WE ARE TRYING TO DO BUT ON A GLOBAL SCALE:

1)We are part of a global "community"

2)We have accepted the fact the climate is changing

3)We are planning, preparing and training for the worst

4)We are going on with our daily lives AND CLIMBING


I want to know what would your community do to someone who didn't believe that wild fires were a problem and played with matches, fire works, had bonfires, etc. because they thought you were wrong???


wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
May 25, 2013 - 08:19am PT
Ecotopians the lot of em Mr. Sumner. A myth at best. But hey, everyone has to have a fantasy life. Right out of the fictional novel, Ecotopia.

This coming from Knotts

or ,the Chef
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 25, 2013 - 09:25am PT
Everything is just as it's suppose to be. It will be as it's going to be. Adapt to it. Deal with it. Go with it.




It is flatter than a witches, boobs. Nada. Flat. All five show the avg flatness trend.


HadCrut4 shows decline the last ten years. Decline, drop, lowering. Down it goes.


Now wheres that fork.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
May 25, 2013 - 10:47am PT
It will be hard for Rick, who I believe had no real science background, to understand very many climate papers. They rely heavily on statistics and theory. I don't understand most of them, but I can understand the abstracts, which is a weak substitute.

Rick, where do you get your information of the variability of solar radiation? I haven't heard that our star was variable, although many are. Our star is fairly small.

We do have a cycle of solar activity, such as sunspots and flares, but this doesn't change the overall radiation total as far as I know.

What does change is the axial tilt. Over time there are several overlying precessions known as "Milankovitch Cycles." They are considered a possible driver of variability in paleoclimate. We see endless cycles of high and low sea level from the Mississippian onward. The Pennsylvanian is chock full of them, and I've done a lot of work on these cycles.

Go to Wiki and read this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

The only problem is that we aren't currently in a part of the cycles that should be increasing warming.

As for the sun, it has been monitored for quite a few decades.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
May 25, 2013 - 11:00am PT
The Chief:

Your first graph shows a .4 degree increase in temperature.

Even if it has been flat for ten years, from a climate perspective this is nothing. You have to look at the entire curve going back several hundred thousand years. You know that. I can take a snippet out of any curve and find an increase over two years.

I can present this two years as showing cooling or warming. It is cherry picking data.

I saw a great lecture that ran a model forward for a hundred years. Some places would warm, some would actually cool, and some would stay the same for 50 years or so. However, after fifty years, the sh#t really hit the fan, and most of it was in the northern hemisphere, with the Arctic being the worse.

What is going on in the Arctic right now can't be refuted. We are seeing summer ice receding at an alarming rate, as well as mean average temperature rising. That is in line with 50 and 100 year climate models, which show the arctic getting totally whacked.

You can't argue against melting ice.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
May 25, 2013 - 11:03am PT
We have been using Milankovitch Cycles as a driver in sequence stratigraphy for quite a while, although other drivers could be the cause. Nevertheless, everyone should read this. It isn't difficult, but look at the time scale.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

Currently the Earth is tilted at 23.44 degrees from its orbital plane, roughly halfway between its extreme values. The tilt is in the decreasing phase of its cycle, and will reach its minimum value around the year 11,800 CE ; the last maximum was reached in 8,700 BCE. This trend, by itself, tends to make winters warmer and summers colder with an overall cooling trend leading to an ice age, but the 20th century instrumental temperature record shows a sudden rise in global temperatures and a concurring glacial melt has led the scientific community to attribute recent changes to greenhouse gas emissions.[7]
mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
May 25, 2013 - 11:03am PT
THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT WE ARE TRYING TO DO BUT ON A GLOBAL SCALE:

1)We are part of a global "community"

2)We have accepted the fact the climate is changing

3)We are planning, preparing and training for the worst

4)We are going on with our daily lives AND CLIMBING

Sounds like communism to me... something a good christian would never stand for.

Everything is just as it's suppose to be. It will be as it's going to be. Adapt to it. Deal with it. Go with it.

Obviously that also applies to all the sh#t in the Whitney Poopal, so quit your bitching about people not packing it out. The world will take care of itself... just adapt to it... deal with it... go with it. What an ignorant little shithead. Thank god you are a nobody with no influence over anything.
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 25, 2013 - 11:04am PT
Your first graph shows a .4 degree increase in temperature.

From 2003 on? Not! Flat and dropping per the second HadCrut graph.
mountainlion

Trad climber
California
May 25, 2013 - 11:39am PT
like Base stated Chief you can cherry pick anyplace on the graph and have it say what you want it to say.

I looked at the whole graph and saw lots of ups and downs throughout but the general trend is up. It will be interesting what the next few years shows.

Is there a key to the graph that explains what the acronyms and abreviations mean? If so please provide it. Also provide the source of the graph. Thanks
mountainlion

Trad climber
California
May 25, 2013 - 12:32pm PT
here is a link to what climate change is doing on Mt. Everest...



http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/24/everest-tourism-climate-change-challenge?INTCMP=ILCNETTXT3487


more evidence of a changing world where it was once cold and the short time span that we have began changing it.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
May 25, 2013 - 12:39pm PT
Chief. Please post the paper which you nabbed the graphs from.

They don't mean much unless you read the entire paper. I have a strong science background and can translate.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
Panorama City, California & living in Seattle
May 25, 2013 - 01:32pm PT
When a person sees graphs like those and does not plug in the fact that there is a huge negative feedback going on with the melting of the icecaps, then they don't see the graphs for what they are. They show serious warming. To maintain those temps when approximately 150 gigatons of ice water is running into the ocean each year, then there has to be some serious warming going on.

http://www.businessinsider.com/antarctica-and-greenland-are-melting-2012-11

If temps really were flat, the poles would not be melting at an 'accelerating' rate. Graphs can look flat, but the entire dynamic certainly isn't. Temps are flat only in the denialists world where the flat earth only has one side.

This is fun;

http://images.search.yahoo.com/search/images?_adv_prop=image&fr=slv8-hpd10&sz=all&va=flat+earth
Credit: McHale's Navy
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
May 25, 2013 - 01:35pm PT
Regarding Milankovitch cycles again:

Currently the Earth is tilted at 23.44 degrees from its orbital plane, roughly halfway between its extreme values. The tilt is in the decreasing phase of its cycle, and will reach its minimum value around the year 11,800 CE ; the last maximum was reached in 8,700 BCE. This trend, by itself, tends to make winters warmer and summers colder with an overall cooling trend leading to an ice age, but the 20th century instrumental temperature record shows a sudden rise in global temperatures and a concurring glacial melt has led the scientific community to attribute recent changes to greenhouse gas emissions.[7]
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
May 25, 2013 - 02:29pm PT
No Ed, i did not misunderstand and scientists have no patent on thinking ability.You however, you wonderful starry eyed egg headus maximus, misunderstood the paper i posted. That paper was in no need of refute since they refuted it themselves (sort of immunity from refutation by self erasure) as they proceeded through their honest presentation. Read it again-i am sure they partially intended it as a spoof on the methods of the false science of CAGW. They did, however, account with high resolution for all the realclimate swings of the last 400 years with their manipulation of data-something the catastrophists can only do in their imaginations.

Surface warming by solar cycle-assigned a .2 k swing in contribution of temps to global total over the course of what we consider to be the standard variation in the solar cycle that has only been observed with accuracy over the last 30 plus years, they also established this solar cycle forcing with 95% confidence level. So its a start until the true range of the VARIABLE STAR we live near is understood.

Base, we know the degree of axial tilt is dipping to the point in the cycle favoring high latitude glaciation. How does the precession cycle create conditions for REGIONAL high latitude glaciation? What point are we in, in the 100,000 year orbital eccentricity cycle? To what degree does our present orbit vary from its most circular to elliptical, apehelion distance perehelion distance,TSI measured in watts per mter difference between min and max? And finally, what effect can a basltic volcanic eruption of modest proportions-say Toba scale-have on global atmospheric GHG content?

You guys are losing this debate so will the possible converts step forward to talk terms of surrender and the degree of extortion required to gain your allegiance.

I was a little depressed last night Chief and not so anymore.The utopians are self destructing.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
May 25, 2013 - 02:53pm PT
When a person sees graphs like those and does not plug in the fact that there is a huge negative feedback going on with the melting of the icecaps, then they don't see the graphs for what they are. They show serious warming. To maintain those temps when approximately 150 gigatons of ice water is running into the ocean each year, then there has to be some serious warming going on

That IS kind of hard to ignore.

I read a business piece about the northwest passage shipping lane being open during the summer months. The big countries are all interested in it, and there is a landgrab for Arctic waters that used to be covered in ice.

There is a lot of petroleum potential in arctic waters. Even the oil companies have noticed the loss of ice during the summer drilling season offshore. They drill in the winter onshore. The offshore borders are being argued over as we speak.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
May 25, 2013 - 02:59pm PT
Rick,

If you just click on the wiki link and put a dictionary in your lap, you will see that we are in a cooling period of the milankovitch cycles.

Those cycles are what we use to tie rises and falls in sea level to sequence boundaries in petroleum geology. Billions of dollars in private research is devoted to this very topic.

This is my last discourse with Rick. He isn't worth my time. I'm too busy to talk to a willfully ignorant person.

Willful ignorance is when you don't bother to learn on purpose. Plane old ignorance is fine, and we all have it, but if you want to chat science, you need to take it upon yourself to learn some basics. You don't need to go get a degree or anything, you just need to stop getting your science from people like Glen Beck.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
Panorama City, California & living in Seattle
May 25, 2013 - 03:22pm PT
You guys are losing this debate so will the possible converts step forward to talk terms of surrender and the degree of extortion required to gain your allegiance.

Interesting that you have to continually post this Rick. My guess is that it's your only line - somebody else writes the remainder of what you post. It's surely a sign that you feel like YOU HAVE already lost. Possible converts? That's pretty funny. Sign up here!
The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
May 25, 2013 - 03:24pm PT
I was a little depressed last night Chief and not so anymore.The utopians are self destructing.

Right ON! Amazing how they ALWAYS want to see the "paper". They can not take the evidence/data for what it states at face value. Just like lawyers I tell ya. Gotta always see the legal ref or cite a prior judgement. Just can not take the evidence as it is. Clear and right in their face. The decline according to HadCrut4 from 2003 to present is right there. No paper BASE. Go to the METOFFICE and it is smack right on the "Home" page.


http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/HadCRUT4.png

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/#sciref

McHale's Navy

Trad climber
Panorama City, California & living in Seattle
May 25, 2013 - 03:36pm PT
Just talking about air temps all the time shows a general misunderstanding of the subject. It's like pointing out that somebody is picking their nose.....and completely leaving out that they are eating the pickings!
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 25, 2013 - 03:44pm PT
Willful ignorance
A dirty dozen gems about
Denialism



Willful ignorance is the state and practice of ignoring any sensory input that appears to contradict one’s inner model of reality. At heart, it is almost certainly driven by confirmation bias.
It differs from the standard definition of “ignorance“ — which just means that one is unaware of something — in that willfully ignorant people are fully aware of facts, resources and sources, but refuse to acknowledge them. Indeed, calling someone "ignorant" shouldn’t really be a pejorative, but intentional and willful ignorance is an entirely different matter. In practice though, the word "ignorance" has often come to mean "willfull ignorance", and indeed, in many non-English languages, the word based on the same stem actually carries that meaning.
Depending on the nature and strength of an individual’s pre-existing beliefs, willful ignorance can manifest itself in different ways. The practice can entail completely disregarding established facts, evidence and/or reasonable opinions if they fail to meet one’s expectations. Often excuses will be made, stating that the source is unreliable, that the experiment was flawed or the opinion is too biased. More often than not this is simple circular reasoning: “I cannot agree with that source because it is untrustworthy because it disagrees with me”.
In other cases, slightly more extreme cases, willful ignorance can involve outright refusal to read, hear or study, in any way, anything that does not conform to the person’s worldview. With regard to oneself, this can even extend to fake locked-in syndrome with complete unresponsiveness. Or with regard to others, to outright censorship of the material from others.
Contents [hide]
1 Examples of willful ignorance
2 Causes and treatment
3 See also
4 External links
[edit]Examples of willful ignorance

This is some suggested reading for willful ignorance:

Creationism - Often absolute denial of transitional fossils. Statements like “there are no transitional fossils” come as if they’re facts from the mouths of creation scientists. Actual scientists, however, would beg to differ.

Conservapædia - Well known for it, in fact.

A Storehouse of Knowledge - As creationists, above.

Expelled: Leader's Guide - Intentional misrepresentations of evolution throughout. They still insist on outright falsehoods such as “Darwinism caused the holocaust”, refusing to consider the blatant facts that this is not only wrong, but would be irrelevant even if it were true.
[edit]


Causes and treatment

Readers should be aware that willful ignorance is a mechanism that actually protects the brain from becoming unable to function in situations that it just can’t handle. An individual can never accept its whole own reality being meaningless or making no sense, as that would make it impossible to act towards any goal. Forcing an individual into such a state has psychologically been found to be comparable to the death of the higher developed parts of the brain from an outside perspective.

This means that the morally right way to treat such individuals is not to look down upon, ridicule or attack them, but to help them to be able to accept reality again. This is most easily accomplished by offering a way to transition without having to give up their own pride and sense of reality, by starting out with the individual's own model of reality, and then slowly walking the way towards actual observed reality by fitting every piece inside of it in a sensible fashion that offers improved abilities to predict the future (which should not be hard, since that is by definition guaranteed).

Example: The Catholic church slowly progressing from a concept of “God decides what happens next. We have to propitiate him.” to “God created the laws of physics and logic.” Which allows them to think in terms of logic and physics, while still not calling their old concepts bad, and so come to harmony with reality again.

Unfortunately, there often comes a time where entrenched willful ignorance just cannot be tolerated or babied anymore and it's better for society (and the "victim") to just buck up and force the truth down their gullet. See the long-term failure of Reconstruction versus the much more successful attempts of de-nazification. It's often up to the rationalist to evaluate whether the cause that's being fought for is too urgent to spare the feelings/self-esteem of the willfully ignorant. Beware the backfire effect though.
[edit]See also

Cognitive dissonance
Confirmation bias
Ignorance
Faith
Intellectual honesty
Upton Sinclair's Law
[edit]External links




From Rational wiki.
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