Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Apr 10, 2013 - 10:25pm PT
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corysue asked: Dr Ed are you related to the talking horse?
of course... we share a common ancestor about 70 million years ago...
Gee can I be one of you guys?
you've posted 3 times to STForum in 4 months (your first two posts were the same day), my guess is that you're just a smarmy short timer who likes to be a wiseass... you don't have much to offer and will be gone again before too long.... the answer is: no
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BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
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Apr 10, 2013 - 11:35pm PT
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Ed,
How's the weather? When is the secret meeting of all of the scientists this year?
If I'm not mistaken, duping humanity was on the schedule for this year's shindig.
Boo Yah.
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Ben Emery
Trad climber
Australia via Bay Area via Australia...
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Apr 11, 2013 - 01:13am PT
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Speaking as a scientist I've always been a little sad and morose that I've never been invited to those meetings or let in on the great conspiracy... Maybe neuroscience just wasn't the right field.
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climbski2
Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
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Apr 11, 2013 - 07:57am PT
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Last I checked into it deeply was 3 years ago. But at that time roughly 1/3 of emissions was electrical generation. 1/3 was transportation and 1/3 other.
the 1/3 that was electrical was aprox 2 terawatts. If we went nuclear that would be about 2000 new nuclear plants.
And we would only drop emmissions by 1/3. To make the impact we need to We probably need to go past 50% of current emmisions and KEEP IT THERE.
Electrical vehicles would be the next easiest thing and that would take more electrical generation. Say another several 100 nuclear plants.
Sorry I keep going on about Nuclear but there isn't any other clean (CO2 clean) alternative that at this time or in the next couple decades or so that can even come close to replacing that much electricity.
The most powerful solar plant in the world produces a measly 20 Megawatts. That is pathetic and pointless in this ocean of energy needs.
Ted Talk Bill Gates. No I didnt get this idea from him.. I had it for years from simply doing the numbers. I think he is a bit wrong about needing to get near 0 emmissions but the point he makes in total is solid.
http://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates.html
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Bruce Kay
Gym climber
BC
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Apr 11, 2013 - 08:08am PT
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Maybe neuroscience just wasn't the right field.
Au contraire doctor! I assume we may call you doctor? If you can legitimately attach half the alphabet behind your name your bar room opinions will gladly be vetted by the ST approved opinions committee. Please forward your professional credentials, religious and political affiliations, and a selection of opinion ( letters to editor, blog posts, soapbox proclamations etc preferred) and a certificate of psychological assessment for approval by our board of examiners.
If you meet our stringent requirements for proclaiming approved rhetorical statements with the appropriate appearance of authoritative legitimacy we will gladly accept your contributions to our cause. In return we will help you advance your public exposure and by extension guaranteed status of authority with a very large demographic, with the further possibility of career opportunities with the media corporations that service their needs and the Petro chemical industries which control them
Please forward a CV to the following address:
Hookworm, Sumner, The Chief and Associates.
Koch building 12
666 Lower Red State Square,
Shining City on The Hill of the newly formed Autonomous Region of Confederated States of the True America ( Formerly Falls Church Va of the United States of America)
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Apr 11, 2013 - 08:21am PT
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Climbski2,Solar is a viable alternative.Uranium mining is probably worse than affecting some desert ecosystems.As always,there will be no easy road.
http://www.americanenergyindependence.com/solarenergy.aspx
There are enthusiastic folks that believe the 100 square mile plan.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Apr 11, 2013 - 08:50am PT
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I appreciate all the humor i see from you guys lately and Corysue's input-well priceless. I would like to inform you we have many other associates there at the Koch Building, the names are too numerous to note now with the exception of Dr. Rong and his global wetting theory.
And no, i am not any where as confused as some of you assume, it is your interpretation of what i was presenting along with my lack of a total understanding and poor articulation that is the confusions source. I am well aware of the difference in the observation graphs and projection graphs.
Now all you guys should reassemble back at the Gore Building to formulate your defense and newly twisted paths of attack.Good day Gentlemen and Ladies.
P.S. ClimbSki2 offers a viable, on the shelf alternative, that could be fairly rapidly deployed safely with today's technology and is much more cost effective than solar and wind. It is telling that this alternative always seems to be rejected by those calling for radical change.
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Bruce Kay
Gym climber
BC
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Apr 11, 2013 - 09:01am PT
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Hey Rick - are you by any chance related to Bill Sumner of Washington?
Sent from my Gore Pad
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Apr 11, 2013 - 09:13am PT
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Bruce it is good that you recognize the source of the technology you are using.Other than immediate family, and a search my dad did before his death
revealing our lineage back to a William Sumner in 1632 in Virginia, i don't know of other extended relatives. He may well be. I know there is a Sumner Family Association but i've not participated as it meets in Koch Building 13 which is beyond my security clearance.
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Bruce Kay
Gym climber
BC
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Apr 11, 2013 - 09:20am PT
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Wrong Bill then. The Washington guy was a technical climber who did a few significant FAs in the Cascades and who if i recall correctly did equipment design work for MSR.
I ran into him once wandering around by himself up at Index (Serene Lake) in the middle of winter testing ice axe prototypes! I always wondered what ever happened to him.
See what you can do about fixing your security clearance. All the real fun stuff happens in building 13.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Apr 11, 2013 - 09:21am PT
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who's against nuclear?
the problem with any alternative is the time it takes to spool up any solution is relatively long, and the net effect is more complex
for example, concrete is a source of CO2, nuclear power plants require a lot of concrete, and a lot of activity (like heavy trucks), materials like steel, etc. that require fossil fuels, and then the demolition and destruction at the end of the life cycle...
when you start a construction project to build you will first end up replacing the outdated reactor facilities we have (none younger than 40 years) and then increase capacity... and we have to store the spent fuel assemblies someplace safe while we think up a plan for recovering the usable fuel (which we haven't yet...)
even if you want to replace the energy generation with wind turbines it takes time to manufacturer that many units, and then you have to figure all the other energy costs in to see if you actually did any good...
The best short term is to work on conservation, that is, not using energy, but the mitigations also have to be calculated with the idea of the net savings of energy.
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climbski2
Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
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Apr 11, 2013 - 09:34am PT
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Fair Points Ed. But long term I think nuclear is the only answer unless some very incredible major technology breakthroughs occur. (hopefully it will happen seems almost likely eventually). Conserve all we like but our population continues to grow faster than our ability to become that much more efficient with current tech it seems.
Also I really do think you would find that Ted-Talk interesting and your opinion on the reactor/fuel system he talks about would be really interesting to me. Perhaps you have seen it or commented on it in the past and I missed it.
I think the time constraints are pretty serious on this issue. Weather patterns are being affected and will get worse at current output. In the real world that means people dying widespread unnecessary human caused suffering, economies and food production significantly affected. These risks and the magnitude of destruction are much higher than the risks from nuclear power.
One extra bad typhoon hitting Bangladesh would cause more destruction and death than Chernobyl. Just one. Let alone all the other severe events worldwide from droughts to hurricanes and everything in between that will be amplified by the energy content of the atmosphere and oceans.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Apr 11, 2013 - 10:08am PT
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Upstream in this thread i asked all you guys, Ed included, what your belief level is in DAGW. Nobody responded.Why, given your guys defense of the "consensus view" aren't you adjusting your personal lives proportionate to the dire consequences you seem to believe we face?Why do you guys find problems in all seemingly reasonable alternatives except huge adjustments towards solar, wind, tidal, biofuels, etc. and prefer to trend to conservation? Given the ever increasing population and the third worlds energy hungry emergence to a higher standard of living, how much conservation on your part would be necessary to counteract these pressures?Are you willing to return to your personal stoneage or are you guys just a bunch of whiners of little belief in what you espouse?
Let me present an alternative. Instead of retreating inwards with fright and collective self loathing why don't we grow some testicles, embrace a sort of cosmological manifest destiny, conserve,innovate, and change where we can reasonably do so while putting an emphasis on outward expansion from this third stone from the sun?
P.S. Hell, if i saw such changes in collective emphasis i would be much more willing to pay higher taxes maybe even a few of your guys share of the national debt.
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Dr. F.
Big Wall climber
SoCal
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Apr 11, 2013 - 10:13am PT
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Just take a look at what is going on a San Onofre.
Those units were state of the art, and one of the most expensive projects ever at the time.
Now they are shut down, maybe forever. Just because of some boiler tubes.
I think some Nuclear is good, but we should focus on wind, tidal and solar.
And do you trust other Countries going Nuclear? like Mexico and Iran??
There are a bunch of New Huge Solar projects going up out in the Mohave now. That is the way to go.
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Elcapinyoazz
Social climber
Joshua Tree
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Apr 11, 2013 - 11:32am PT
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I'm pro-nuke. Primarily because baseload/storage issues aren't likely to resolve soon, and wind/solar/tidal have inherent unpredicability and/or diurnal issues. Pebble bed reactor design seems to eliminate the meltdown/runaway reaction aspect. So you're down to waste handling as a primary concern.
Of course the uranium mining to support it isn't very friendly...but with an alternative being coal...still mining, or nat gas...fracing...no easy answer (otherwise we'd have already done it)
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Hoser
climber
vancouver
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Apr 11, 2013 - 12:35pm PT
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The best short term is to work on conservation, that is, not using energy, but the mitigations also have to be calculated with the idea of the net savings of energy.
Have you heard of Jevons paradox?
So in order for demand side management to work we need to increase the cost of energy in step with efficiency. Otherwise it actually works against us. Here in BC our clean energy requirement is to meet 66% of new power needs by DSM.
But man does that tick people off, our own premier shot down the rate increases of our public utility so its going to take alot more than just wishing people ride a bike.
The nuclear argument is probably going to make some come back, the small modular reactors they are building now, 10 MW are possibly a bit more palatable for folks. But the 4 they had slated NW alberta got shut down pretty quickly.
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Hoser
climber
vancouver
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Apr 11, 2013 - 12:42pm PT
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The most powerful solar plant in the world produces a measly 20 Megawatts. That is pathetic and pointless in this ocean of energy needs.
I think thats wrong, and some of your numbers are confusing, or I dont get it.
Are you talking power or capacity?
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Apr 11, 2013 - 12:46pm PT
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rick sumner, you are a lazy bastard... you can find this information if you look, it's posted
e.g.
http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=970221&msg=1530230#msg1530230
what's your carbon footprint?
and yes, I spend money to reduce and conserve because it is something I can do directly.
PG&E informs me that our home energy use is less than the "energy star" homes in our neighborhood... and about a factor of 3 to 4 less than the normal house. It's because of changes we made, voluntarily and at our own expense, to conserve.
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climbski2
Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
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Apr 11, 2013 - 12:51pm PT
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Maximum output.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PS20_solar_power_plant
And in a way I was wrong thy are building more of these towers and the total will be 300MW once the complex is finished. That does put a real dent in overall picture of needing to replace about 2TW ( 2 Mega mega watts) worth of co2 intensive electrical generation.
This is good tech. Instead of needing to store the electricity in batteries the towers store the heat in the form of Liquified Salt for use in generation when the sun is down.
Nevada is on the bandwagon for this type of electrical generation.
http://www.solarreserve.com/what-we-do/csp-projects/crescent-dunes/
Crescent Dunes – 110.0 megawatts
In the construction stage, this concentrated solar thermal project will include a molten salt storage system to enable electricity generation even when the sun is hidden by clouds or into the night. It is located near Tonopah, Nev. and is owned by SolarReserve.
The project is expected to be in service by 2014. SolarReserve's molten salt, concentrating solar power tower technology was successfully demonstrated in California under a U.S. Department of Energy-sponsored pilot project in the late 1990s. The new facility will utilize a molten salt receiver designed and engineered by Rocketdyne, now a part of United Technologies Corporation.
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ED have you watched that ted talk? I really am interested in your opinion of the feasibility of reactors that could use our current waste as fuel.
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