Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jul 7, 2013 - 02:07pm PT
http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/morriss-green-jobs-myths.pdf

Here is an analysis of the assumptions/projections of the green agenda that many governments (including ours) are advancing on their citizens. Getting the masses to believe in CAGW theory is central to its acceptance.
Its a few years old, but just as relevant to our current times as when it was produced in 2009. Everyone will recognize the terminology used-it is constantly in our media and issues from the mouths of our leaders.
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jul 7, 2013 - 02:57pm PT
what a fuking idiot. 100% irrelevant to climate science.
command error

Trad climber
Colorado
Jul 7, 2013 - 03:40pm PT
I think dr crist you are worried. Your gw god has been exposed as nothing but a hollow lie. Find a new one that does not involve ripping off so much money.

Jebus H Bomz

climber
Peavine Basecamp
Jul 7, 2013 - 06:10pm PT
Command error is one of those automated robo - posts generated by some lap top at the Heartless Institute.

Also, it's another "tactical" move by The Chump.
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jul 7, 2013 - 10:46pm PT
I think dr crist you are worried.

The only thing that worries me is that we have to share this planet with willfully ignorant fukheads like you.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 15, 2013 - 10:56am PT
Ron, I'm curious to your thoughts on this article:

link: U.S. Wildfire Interactive Shows Rising Temperatures, Less Snowfall Are Leading To More Fires


Being so well versed in wildfires, is it still your impression that a rise in temps of 1 degree F doesn't affect the size and scope of wildfires?
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jul 15, 2013 - 11:19am PT
well for one we DONT have a WHOLE degree of "warming" but .9 of a degree.

Many areas HAVENT had reduced winters or precip, in fact just the opposite.

Now as far as that temp "change" of COURSE it affects wildfires, but an amount of affect is a tiny tiny, barely perceptible "change".. We are talking a fraction so small it must be calculated only through numbers and NOT observation as far as actual fire numbers such as rates of spread or flame length.

For example, the bison fire started on a day that was over 100 F. It burned for two days under those temps, but the real runs it made were under temps six to eight degrees LESS that when it started.. The winds were similar. The fire was acting that way out of oscillating back and forth from wind driven to plume controlled.. Temps were of the least factor in that situation.


In FED fire services,, they WILL LEAP onto ANYTHING,, and i mean ANYTHING to increase the various agency's BUDGETS. I personally was involved in that propaganda when i was in the USFS. Every year i would be interviewed by the news where i would tell of the early warm up and drying,, and critical fire dangers to be that year, and more times than not we were just slinging propaganda.


If you want to learn about fires, look up the history of the largest wildfires. They go back to the 1800s where far bigger fires occurred.

The blow up that happened in AZ has happened just like that many times before, from Storm King mtn in CO, to Mann gulch in Montana. All the way back to the early 1900s, fires have exhibited IDENTICAL burning in extreme situations. The .9 degree rise in "global temps" have NOT, i repeat NOT affected wildfires any more than that Tiny FRACTION IT ACTUALLY IS.

This IS JUST THE latest thing climate change can grab onto to further their cause. I guarantee if i were in the USFS still i would be telling you all of the MASSIVE fire storms of the future, so i could get those NEW I-500 engines, and that new dedicated helo for the district,, and those new stations etc etc etc.



So yes Kman, that .9 has its affect. A very ssssmalllll effect. They also said the "bison fore" was the largest in "western NV " history.. That too is bullchips. I was on the hallelujah jnctn fire of 1976 which started in CA but burned mostly in NV. It was as far "west" as nevada goes, but apparently none of our news folks was here then..





edit: If we were truly worried about wildfires, our govt would re-vitalize the CCC program, get them into the woods and start treating those woods the way they need.





edit: As per that article you posted, it speaks of Nevada having the least snow pack in the spring in some years, while it RAINED steady until the end of june last year.. I had THREE flash floods hit my shop last year in one of the wettest springs i remember in some 48 years here.. And that "largest wild fire" was a LET BURN fire in N Nevada. So that article is FULL of "propaganda" and half truths in order to convince one of the cause represented there.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jul 17, 2013 - 01:58am PT
We thankyou for your continuing contributions to the chicken little sky is falling propaganda Bruce. NGFYS
slayton

Trad climber
Here and There
Jul 17, 2013 - 03:02am PT
rick sumner
We thankyou for your continuing contributions to the chicken little sky is falling propaganda Bruce. NGFYS

Do you care to share why you feel that way? Or is your brief diatribe enough to convince those that you wish to do so?
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Jul 17, 2013 - 09:30am PT
Hey Dick,what is your propaganda called?
Certainly not the truth.
1 2 3 .
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jul 24, 2013 - 12:01am PT
Excuse me for interrupting my fellow idiots summer slumber away from the AGW war, but a new paper came to my attention. This fellow Akasofu is a geophycicist from UAF. He seems to hit on all the same mechanisms, excluding the present point in the Milankovitch cycles, i did on my simplified natural process explanation of our present point in climate change. Natural climate change- now that is something to think about while we await battle over the release of AR5.

http://scienceandpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/reprint/present_halting.pdf
Tricouni

Mountain climber
Vancouver
Jul 24, 2013 - 02:43am PT
Fresh blood in this thread, at least for the moment.... I'm not a climate scientist, just a lowly geologist.

Rick, an analogy: give me a list of numbers made from the last 4 digits of a page from a phone book. You'll probably agree that the series is (pseudo)random. I could probably fit a curve to that series of numbers that would "explain" the series quite well. But my curve/equation would have no predictive power whatever. It may be complicated math, but it's not science.

That's the problem with this paper: a lack of predictive power, and we could no doubt do other fits to the data. It's all ad hoc.

In a way, it's somewhat similar to what Ptolemy and his followers had to do with his earth-centric cosmology. As more data accumulated, the hypothesis had to be tweaked with more and more complicated gears, wheels and what-not, all added after the fact. Copernicus's theory, on the other hand, had real predictive power, needed modification, and has been verified by observational data. THAT was science.

The problem as I see it with all the anti-AGW papers is that none of them provide a plausible alternative to the fact that increasing atmospheric CO2 leads to increased temperature, as first demonstrated by Arrhenius (pointed out many times on this forum). This effect is experimentally demonstrable, is well understood theoretically, and has been verified by observational data. THAT is science.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Jul 24, 2013 - 09:29am PT
Easy on the nail pounders please.

Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
And every fool knows, a dog needs a home, and...
Jul 24, 2013 - 09:53am PT
Ed sure swings his scientific framing hammer with confidence and accuracy, doesn't he wilbeer.

He starts gently enough...

(bang bang)

point is now planted, and can stand up on its own. Then, like a man on a mission to complete a job and get paid?

Bang bang BANG!

Wash rinse repeat, the framers cadence (before nail guns that is)

(bang bang) Bang Bang BANG!

(bang bang) Bang Bang BANG!

(bang bang) Bang Bang BANG!

(bang bang) Bang Bang BANG!

(bang bang) Bang Bang BANG!

(bang bang) Bang Bang BANG!

Till the paper is nailed down and its on to the next - denial.

All the while he's pleasant and even nice, about it, despite the repeated insults hurled his way. Plus he shows us how the house of science gets built, one plank, one fact, one data element at a time. Its a BIG HOUSE. And a lotta nails....

Nawmean?

DMT
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Jul 24, 2013 - 11:40am PT
Yep.

Probably pretty good on a steep roof also.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
And every fool knows, a dog needs a home, and...
Jul 24, 2013 - 12:02pm PT
I should think so.

DMT
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jul 24, 2013 - 12:06pm PT
Yeah, Ed is a good man with a keen analytical mind and a gift for writing in a clear concise manner. He could teach us lowly nail pounders many things we could never understand about the natural world around us on our own. Unfortunately though, he's hitched his horse to the wrong wagon here. The wheels are coming off and the new natural world models are passing him by. Thanks a lot Bruce for your good cheer. Time to go back to slumber till their is something more substantial to argue.
dirtbag

climber
Jul 24, 2013 - 12:20pm PT
^^^^^ Christ, what an idiot. ^^^^^
Paul Martzen

Trad climber
Fresno
Jul 24, 2013 - 12:30pm PT
Funny analogy Dingus.

Riley posted the following link on another thread.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kpigok-lVK4

It has a very good explanation of changes in the jet stream that account for both unusually cold weather as well as unusually hot weather. As the arctic warms there is less temperature difference between the arctic and the tropics so the air flow between slows down a bit. This results in a slower jet stream. Like on a slower river, the bends and loops of the jet stream become larger and slower. The air in the jet stream flows from west to east, but the waves, bends and loops of the jet stream also gradually move from west to east. As the air slows down, the bends get larger and move slower.

The jet stream forms a dividing line between hot tropical air on the south side and cold air on the north side. With larger bends in the jet stream, hot air gets to move much further north where the jet stream bends further north and cold air gets to move much further south where the jet stream bends much further south. Since the bends of the jet stream are moving slower, the unusual weather remains for much longer in each location.

This explains how rather large changes in local weather can result from fairly small changes in average temperature.
bobinc

Trad climber
Portland, Or
Jul 24, 2013 - 01:20pm PT
To continue Rick Sumner's analogy: he himself is hitched to a Hot Wheel.
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