Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jul 5, 2013 - 05:00pm PT
I did EVERY S course and pre work. I also attended a fire science academy and structure training through the Carson FD. Want more?

Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jul 5, 2013 - 05:15pm PT
I simply asked if you took S-590. I'm capable of finding out course details on my own. I'm waiting to find out when they actually started teaching that class... but my recollection is they didn't even start teaching S-490 until the early 1990's and S-590 in the early '00's. Were you still fighting fires/taking classes in the early 90's?

Funny how you taking "enough classes for an MS" decades ago but not actually getting an MS makes you an "expert", even though you don't know what you are talking about or don't know how to effectively communicate relevant information. But people who ACTUALLY HAVE an MS AND a PhD AND PUBLISHED their ACTUAL RESEARCH don't know what they are talking about.

Arrogance and ignorance... nauseating.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jul 5, 2013 - 05:42pm PT
Bruce,, Ive been corresponding via email with several users who ARE or HAVE BEEN in the fire field and in TOP positions such as Incident Commanders. My take on the Yarnell fire was exactly the same as theirs.

You seem to think TITLES equal "knowledge".. So if i dont have a peeHdee
then i do not count. Is that what your saying.?


I was trained and trusted enough to be IC myself. With the LIVES of others as a responsibility.. Thats THE LAST of what i will say about that.
Save for the fact NO ONE died on MY watch. My pride in that more than nullifies the endless torrent of insult here.

Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jul 5, 2013 - 05:47pm PT
You seem to think TITLES equal "knowledge"..

I'm not the one who brought up classes or degrees. I simply reiterated the OBVIOUS FACT that air temperature affects fire behavior. I even quantified the potential water loss (leading to lower fuel moisture) due to a 1.0F increase in temperature. You are the one who started ranting about all your classes and titles and sh#t... presumably because you didn't know what you were talking about and refuse to admit when you are wrong.

Other than the fact that I have earned my PhD, have I ever listed the classes I have taken? Or the titles I have held?

Nope, but YOU have... several times... always in lieu of relevant information and only after you have been proven wrong.

If you are into that whole "self-development" and "learning" thing, you might want to google "psychological projection." It is a defense mechanism in which one attributes their own undesirable attributes to someone else...
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jul 5, 2013 - 06:01pm PT
"It is a defense mechanism in which one attributes their own undesirable attributes to someone else..."




MOUNT EVEREST of IRONY right there.



wes, i WONT respond to you anymore . Your a child and a bore.






edit: Bruce,, FIRES have NOT CHANGED. They ARE comparing the MANN GULCH (1940s) AND Storm king (1990s) incidents to the Yarnell incident. States that are in drought cycles now have been so in the past and fires burned accordingly now and in the past ok?
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jul 5, 2013 - 06:03pm PT
And "your" a willfully ignorant obstinate old man.

Once again, Ron adamantly claims something with unwavering authority based on his recollection from decades ago ("FIRES have NOT CHANGED") while the people who ACTUALLY DO THE RESEARCH (instead of stuffing animals) claim the opposite.

Damn, NOW who are we supposed to believe?

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/313/5789/940.short
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jul 5, 2013 - 07:12pm PT
YEP were ALL GONNA BURN BABAY! The oceans shall dry, lakes turn to dust and rivers turn to sand. We will all now "JIM JONES" it!
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jul 5, 2013 - 07:37pm PT
Bahaha,,, nice Ed.. And WHAT does that all SAY,,

short version,, a lot of IFS, mays and Buts. Hey i fully admit if the average temps everywhere zoom upwards ten degrees you bet there will be differences in fires. But not in the whopping .9 of one degree in SOME places.

Youll be hard pressed to see a wild fire in Florida right now- they are drenched. Same with the mid west.

How about Western Canada? Pretty WET up there as well.

Even here in NV, we have had a late cool spring and green up. Fires here are one day wonders yet.



The fires they are using for comparison to the Yarnell fire during the investigation are Storm King Mtn (1990s), Mann Gulch (1940s) and others, and burned exaclty the way the Yarnell fire did under similar circumstances. In a time span of 80+ years fires still behave as fires.
Topography, weather, temps, moistures and fuel. They still blow up just like they did on those 15 smoke jumpers above the Missouri river. Only the FUEL loads have changed to any degree. THAT IS the key.


monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jul 5, 2013 - 07:40pm PT
We'll take your word for it Anderson. Where have you published (besides here of course)?

No IFs, MAYs or BUTs below:

Robust statistical associations between wildfire and hydroclimate in western forests indicate that increased wildfire activity over recent decades reflects sub-regional responses to changes in climate
Skeptimistic

Mountain climber
La Mancha
Jul 5, 2013 - 07:45pm PT
You seem to think TITLES equal "knowledge"

Yes, you're right. Just because someone spent 4 years poring over the current & past literature, designed experiments and came up with a novel finding in the field doesn't mean he knows anything related to that field.

So I take it you use witch doctors over credentialed medical doctors for your health care?

And you probably also think GW Bush is one of the great minds of the 20th century.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jul 5, 2013 - 07:47pm PT
Ive been published in countless bathroom walls Mono..




Ive seen many active and non active fire years. Some of those were SEEMINGLY at odds with fire predictions. 1977 was the tail of a long drought for the great basin, dry as a bone and endlessly HOT. While region 5 had fire activity, it was one of the deadest fires seasons in region 4 ever! In fact , we spent most of the season out of state because there wasnt a damm thing happening at home. ALL predictions said it was gonna be a barn burner. Problem was, after that long drought, there was NO small fuels like grasses to carry a fire.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jul 5, 2013 - 08:08pm PT
Ed, Cool that you got a year in. You then know fire fighters are adrenaline junkys. ;-)


Yeah,, i realize that link posted says much of what i already have.

I do believe climate is and always will be changing. It has about 45 times in the 48 years ive lived here. Ive seen the major sinks dry up and all but vaporize.

And of course that can hardly be blamed on a .9 temp increase over such a time period can it? Last year the great basin had a wetter spring and a cooler summer than usual. In fact it was looking like SEATTLE here for a while - my shop flooded three stinkin times lol!
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jul 5, 2013 - 08:11pm PT
Even here in NV, we have had a late cool spring and green up. Fires here are one day wonders yet.

"Right" again. If by "one day wonders" you mean one wonders how anyone could claim with presumed authority that they only lasted one day...

Carpenter 1 Fire, Start Date: July 1, 2013. Over 9,000 acres burned, ? contained.

Eight Mile Fire, Start Date: July 1, 2013. Over 5,500 acres burned, 25% contained as of July 5, 2013.

Crescent Dune Fire, Start Date: July 1, 2013. Over 36,000 acres burned, contained July 4, 2013.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jul 5, 2013 - 08:15pm PT
And sub-regions can warm much higher then .9. Funny how averages work.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jul 5, 2013 - 08:21pm PT
True Ed.. If i were to describe local weather patterns for the last ten years ,,"squirley" would be that description.
mountainlion

Trad climber
California
Jul 6, 2013 - 03:11am PT
thanks Ron for all the years risking your life fighting fires...it isn't taken for granted from me and I mourn the loss of 19 men who were true HEROES known as HOTSHOTS because they were the best of the best!!!

I tried to join the fire crew in southern california a few years ago but missed the call because I stayed an extra day at JT to climb...got home and had a message to call on Sunday but didn't get the message until Monday night...to late they had already filled the position...

I don't discredit anyone's science on the issue but much like climbing I trust those who actually DO the activity (kind of like watching a climbing video interview on you tube recently--one of the guys interviewed was a competition climber who had NEVER climbed out of the gym--WTF does he know about climbing was my opinion (as well as the demeanor of the climber sitting next to him who honed his skills on real stone)...

fire technology has improved use your past knowledge to brush up and bring some relevant facts to the debate using science and past experience Ron...
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jul 6, 2013 - 11:48am PT
Mt lion the only diff between my times and now is that the 13 situations that "shout watch out" have been added to and are now 18 situations that "shout watch out". That is all..
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 6, 2013 - 11:49am PT
Bruce,, Ive been corresponding via email with several users who ARE or HAVE BEEN in the fire field and in TOP positions such as Incident Commanders. My take on the Yarnell fire was exactly the same as theirs

Ron, That's fantastic. I'd love to hear what the top folks in the fire field have said about the Yarnell fire, because I've been reading reports in the news and we all know how the MSM can screw a story.

BTW, did you ask them about the point we're debating? And that would be "Does an increase in the temperature make a difference in the wildfires we see? How about a 1 degree increase in overall temps?"

You see, because I have another news report here that says the higher temps do make a difference, while you seem to be claiming that that's hogwash.


link: Climate Change And Wildfires: Bigger, Fiercer Blazes Expected In West
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jul 6, 2013 - 12:18pm PT
Kman yet another "the sky is falling" trick.

It doesnt take an Einstien to figure out increased temps lead to increased drying which leads to a LITTLE more fire.



edit: But this statement from you link is 100% HOGWASH:




"Twenty years ago, I would have said this was a highly unusual, fast-moving, dangerous fire," said fire history expert Don Falk at the University of Arizona at Tucson, referring to the Yarnell Hill fire. "Now unfortunately, it's not unusual at all."

^^^^ Weve seem THIS EXACT fire behavoir from the 1800s on, and in each decade there after. IDENTICAL.


But what we are talking about isnt even 1 degree of AVERAGE difference between now and YEARS ago. These are FUTURE "predictions" at best. As ive noted many times now,, fires have been burning the same since they were recorded. Many of the largest fires in history were very long ago. The primary reason for todays fierce burns are FUEL loads ..

As for the incident, it is now being talked about that the Hotshots HAD made it to the "black" during initial explosion of the fire due to the thunder cell overhead. They then , later, tried to make it to a designated safety zone probalby to re group and at a nearby ranch when they were over taken in a small canyon of un burned fuels. Spot fires were likely the cause. They may have been essentially trapped by a new fire start from those spot fires. The Blue Ridge hotshots were the first to find them. The investigation will go on for quite some time as the various parts and people come together.







As for the "earlier warming" in the spring, that too is localized. This spring here in NV the deer are just now fawning - its been a LATE arrival of the warming of spring here.


Credit: Ron Anderson


That fawn is a week old or less. July is LATE for fawning here.
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jul 7, 2013 - 01:44am PT
Mt lion the only diff between my times and now is that the 13 situations that "shout watch out" have been added to and are now 18 situations that "shout watch out". That is all..

Ron is right again... everything about wildfires was known decades ago... all the research and experience since then was entirely useless... they should just call Ron... all the other guys could do is come up with 5 more things for the crews to memorize.



The original claim:

But a a degree or so diff ISNT going to make or break ANYTHING in wildifires.

after being called out on his bullshit:

It doesnt take an Einstien to figure out increased temps lead to increased drying which leads to a LITTLE more fire.

Life is so much better when you can just admit you are wrong and move on, rather than desperately trying to defend your original misconception. I like it when I'm proven wrong... I get to learn something... that is what makes my life worth living.
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