Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Elcapinyoazz

Social climber
Joshua Tree
Jul 5, 2013 - 03:32pm PT
Hi Ron,

What factors influence the fuels moisture %?
And what effects do those fuel moisture levels have on fires?
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jul 5, 2013 - 03:44pm PT
But a a degree or so diff ISNT going to make or break ANYTHING in wildifires.

It is THE FUEL MOISTURES that are lacking in many areas.

And you know this how, intuition?


You KNOW plants lose more water when it is hot, right?
You know soil does too right?

A 1.0F increase in air temperature can result in an increase in water loss of over 1/2" of per month. The article Bruce posted says the 10 year average air temperature has changed 2.3F in AZ.

Do you really think a loss of 1/2" per month is insignificant given the very low precipitation in the area? (HINT: the little blue line WELL below 1/4" is the average precipitation.

Credit: Dr. Christ

What effects fuel moistures? HUMIDITY, TEMPERATURE, WEATHER and TOPOGRAPHY.

So, tell me, how is it that "a degree or so diff ISNT going to make or break ANYTHING in wildifires."



The explanation of how these affect wildfires are complex and far too long for me to indulge here.

Your combination of arrogance and ignorance is tiresome and nauseating.
jgill

Boulder climber
Colorado
Jul 5, 2013 - 03:45pm PT
. . . the wisdom of past eras that got us into this mess in the first place

Oooh . . . I feel so bad about that . . .


;>\
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 5, 2013 - 03:51pm PT
What effects fuel moistures? HUMIDITY, TEMPERATURE, WEATHER and TOPOGRAPHY.

weather
[ wər ]

state of atmosphere: the state of the atmosphere with regard to temperature, cloudiness, rainfall, wind, and other meteorological conditions


Looks like you failed the question Ron, and that you're not as knowledgeable about these things as you'd like to feel.

But you're funny. And that does have merit, so chin up.
raymond phule

climber
Jul 5, 2013 - 04:11pm PT
It is strange, Ron has no problem at all to ignore scientist or disagree with them on subjects that he has very limited knowledge about but when people disagree with him on subjects that he claims he know he seems to became frustrated.
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jul 5, 2013 - 04:17pm PT
So young idgets like wes will now post his graphs not to prove anything but to just show his disdain for me.

Really Rong, you can't even see the point of that graph? It doesn't PROVE anything, it SHOWS that the average precipitation around Yarnell is less than 1/4". Others have proven (and damn near anyone can show) that a 1.0F increase in temperature can increase water loss by over 1/2". Are you REALLY so willfully ignorant that you refuse to accept 1.0F ABSOLUTELY WILL make a difference in fuel moisture, and hence fire behavior?


I have in my library may reports from fatal fires that i was involved with one way or the other. But never mind that right?

Right, because your reports from fires have NOTHING TO DO with what influences fire behavior.

I appreciate your hard work on the lines, but you NEVER studied how fire behaves. It is complicated and you don't learn it in those 1 week FS classes.

I was on a hand crew for 5 years before working for the Riverside Fire Lab (USDA) where they ACTUALLY STUDY WHAT INFLUENCES FIRE BEHAVIOR. Huge advances have been made since the 1970's. I'm sorry you are too stubborn and/or willfully ignorant to accept that. But that is okay, the world will go on without your ridiculous mixture of arrogance and ignorance.
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jul 5, 2013 - 04:32pm PT
Nope, I don't know you or the classes you took. All I know is that you are either unable or unwilling to provide any relevant information about anything, ever. You acknowledge that fuel moisture affects fire behavior, but refuse to admit air temperature affects fuel moisture... something any 8 year old can CLEARLY understand and demonstrate. Instead of addressing how air temperature affects FIRE BEHAVIOR you go off about the jobs you held over 3 decades ago and the reports you have. You bring it on yourself. Those of us interested in the truth can't help but correct you when you are FLAT OUT WRONG.

Did you take the equivalent of S-590? Were you ever FBAN?
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 5, 2013 - 04:36pm PT
Ron, I have to admit, your fire-fighting resume is impressive. And you seem to have boned up with classes too boot. It appears you're quite knowledgeable and rounded in this area.

But all that, and you still say that a 1 degree increase in temperature doesn't make a difference in the severity of wild fires?? Come on, my man, and have a beer. It's time to take solace in the fact that half the population possesses below-average intelligence.
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jul 5, 2013 - 04:57pm PT
So you did the pre-course work portion of S-490?
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 5, 2013 - 04:58pm PT
Ron: Nice!

Predicting Behavior and Size of Crown


So, does water content have an effect of the size of the fire?

According to the Yosemite Fire Chief, it does. And I believe her. I also believe it when they say the dry conditions have moved forward the fire season by two months.

Why? Because it's dry and Hot. We're in a drought, and the extra heat doesn't help us WRT fire danger.

But I figured you knew all this, according to your credentials and the class outline you posted above.
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jul 5, 2013 - 05:15pm PT
I simply asked if you took S-590. I'm capable of finding out course details on my own. I'm waiting to find out when they actually started teaching that class... but my recollection is they didn't even start teaching S-490 until the early 1990's and S-590 in the early '00's. Were you still fighting fires/taking classes in the early 90's?

Funny how you taking "enough classes for an MS" decades ago but not actually getting an MS makes you an "expert", even though you don't know what you are talking about or don't know how to effectively communicate relevant information. But people who ACTUALLY HAVE an MS AND a PhD AND PUBLISHED their ACTUAL RESEARCH don't know what they are talking about.

Arrogance and ignorance... nauseating.
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jul 5, 2013 - 05:47pm PT
You seem to think TITLES equal "knowledge"..

I'm not the one who brought up classes or degrees. I simply reiterated the OBVIOUS FACT that air temperature affects fire behavior. I even quantified the potential water loss (leading to lower fuel moisture) due to a 1.0F increase in temperature. You are the one who started ranting about all your classes and titles and sh#t... presumably because you didn't know what you were talking about and refuse to admit when you are wrong.

Other than the fact that I have earned my PhD, have I ever listed the classes I have taken? Or the titles I have held?

Nope, but YOU have... several times... always in lieu of relevant information and only after you have been proven wrong.

If you are into that whole "self-development" and "learning" thing, you might want to google "psychological projection." It is a defense mechanism in which one attributes their own undesirable attributes to someone else...
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jul 5, 2013 - 06:03pm PT
And "your" a willfully ignorant obstinate old man.

Once again, Ron adamantly claims something with unwavering authority based on his recollection from decades ago ("FIRES have NOT CHANGED") while the people who ACTUALLY DO THE RESEARCH (instead of stuffing animals) claim the opposite.

Damn, NOW who are we supposed to believe?

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/313/5789/940.short
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jul 5, 2013 - 07:40pm PT
We'll take your word for it Anderson. Where have you published (besides here of course)?

No IFs, MAYs or BUTs below:

Robust statistical associations between wildfire and hydroclimate in western forests indicate that increased wildfire activity over recent decades reflects sub-regional responses to changes in climate
Skeptimistic

Mountain climber
La Mancha
Jul 5, 2013 - 07:45pm PT
You seem to think TITLES equal "knowledge"

Yes, you're right. Just because someone spent 4 years poring over the current & past literature, designed experiments and came up with a novel finding in the field doesn't mean he knows anything related to that field.

So I take it you use witch doctors over credentialed medical doctors for your health care?

And you probably also think GW Bush is one of the great minds of the 20th century.
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jul 5, 2013 - 08:11pm PT
Even here in NV, we have had a late cool spring and green up. Fires here are one day wonders yet.

"Right" again. If by "one day wonders" you mean one wonders how anyone could claim with presumed authority that they only lasted one day...

Carpenter 1 Fire, Start Date: July 1, 2013. Over 9,000 acres burned, ? contained.

Eight Mile Fire, Start Date: July 1, 2013. Over 5,500 acres burned, 25% contained as of July 5, 2013.

Crescent Dune Fire, Start Date: July 1, 2013. Over 36,000 acres burned, contained July 4, 2013.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jul 5, 2013 - 08:15pm PT
And sub-regions can warm much higher then .9. Funny how averages work.
mountainlion

Trad climber
California
Jul 6, 2013 - 03:11am PT
thanks Ron for all the years risking your life fighting fires...it isn't taken for granted from me and I mourn the loss of 19 men who were true HEROES known as HOTSHOTS because they were the best of the best!!!

I tried to join the fire crew in southern california a few years ago but missed the call because I stayed an extra day at JT to climb...got home and had a message to call on Sunday but didn't get the message until Monday night...to late they had already filled the position...

I don't discredit anyone's science on the issue but much like climbing I trust those who actually DO the activity (kind of like watching a climbing video interview on you tube recently--one of the guys interviewed was a competition climber who had NEVER climbed out of the gym--WTF does he know about climbing was my opinion (as well as the demeanor of the climber sitting next to him who honed his skills on real stone)...

fire technology has improved use your past knowledge to brush up and bring some relevant facts to the debate using science and past experience Ron...
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 6, 2013 - 11:49am PT
Bruce,, Ive been corresponding via email with several users who ARE or HAVE BEEN in the fire field and in TOP positions such as Incident Commanders. My take on the Yarnell fire was exactly the same as theirs

Ron, That's fantastic. I'd love to hear what the top folks in the fire field have said about the Yarnell fire, because I've been reading reports in the news and we all know how the MSM can screw a story.

BTW, did you ask them about the point we're debating? And that would be "Does an increase in the temperature make a difference in the wildfires we see? How about a 1 degree increase in overall temps?"

You see, because I have another news report here that says the higher temps do make a difference, while you seem to be claiming that that's hogwash.


link: Climate Change And Wildfires: Bigger, Fiercer Blazes Expected In West
Dr. Christ

Mountain climber
State of Mine
Jul 7, 2013 - 01:44am PT
Mt lion the only diff between my times and now is that the 13 situations that "shout watch out" have been added to and are now 18 situations that "shout watch out". That is all..

Ron is right again... everything about wildfires was known decades ago... all the research and experience since then was entirely useless... they should just call Ron... all the other guys could do is come up with 5 more things for the crews to memorize.



The original claim:

But a a degree or so diff ISNT going to make or break ANYTHING in wildifires.

after being called out on his bullshit:

It doesnt take an Einstien to figure out increased temps lead to increased drying which leads to a LITTLE more fire.

Life is so much better when you can just admit you are wrong and move on, rather than desperately trying to defend your original misconception. I like it when I'm proven wrong... I get to learn something... that is what makes my life worth living.
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