Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
May 21, 2013 - 11:11am PT
get of that dirt.. want me to cut and paste the dictionary term or whut?



So far a lot of bad science examples have been given..That is normal in THEORETICAL situations is it not? As actual knowledge advances, theories CHANGE.
dirtbag

climber
May 21, 2013 - 11:12am PT
No, in your own words, can you explain what it is?
shit tooth

Trad climber
Oklahoma City, OK
May 21, 2013 - 11:12am PT
I dont think ANYONE here is denying climate CHANGE, but how that change is brought about and the effects man has on it and the amount of affect man has in it is in question, as that is ALL THEORY, which begs for questioning.

Lets start here, http://www.livescience.com/21491-what-is-a-scientific-theory-definition-of-theory.html

I would agree that it is a theory :D
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
May 21, 2013 - 11:13am PT
When used in non-scientific context, the word “theory” implies that something is unproven or speculative. As used in science, however, a theory is an explanation or model based on observation, experimentation, and reasoning, especially one that has been tested and confirmed as a general principle helping to explain and predict natural phenomena.

Any scientific theory must be based on a careful and rational examination of the facts. In the scientific method, there is a clear distinction between facts, which can be observed and/or measured, and theories, which are scientists’ explanations and interpretations of the facts. Scientists can have various interpretations of the outcomes of experiments and observations, but the facts, which are the cornerstone of the scientific method, do not change.

A theory must include statements that have observational consequences. A good theory, like Newton’s theory of gravity, has unity, which means it consists of a limited number of problem-solving strategies that can be applied to a wide range of scientific circumstances. Another feature of a good theory is that it formed from a number of hypotheses that can be tested independently.

A scientific theory is not the end result of the scientific method; theories can be proven or rejected, just like hypotheses. Theories can be improved or modified as more information is gathered so that the accuracy of the prediction becomes greater over time.

Theories are foundations for furthering scientific knowledge and for putting the information gathered to practical use. Scientists use theories to develop inventions or find a cure for a disease.

A few theories do become laws, but theories and laws have separate and distinct roles in the scientific method. A theory is an explanation of an observed phenomenon, while a law is a description of an observed phenomenon.


Related:




there ya go Dirt..



a proposed explanation whose status is still conjectural and subject to experimentation, in contrast to well-established propositions that are regarded as reporting matters of actual fact. Synonyms: idea, notion hypothesis, postulate. Antonyms: practice, verification, corroboration, substantiation.
3.
Mathematics . a body of principles, theorems, or the like, belonging to one subject: number theory.
4.
the branch of a science or art that deals with its principles or methods, as distinguished from its practice: music theory.
5.
a particular conception or view of something to be done or of the method of doing it; a system of rules or principles: conflicting theo




FRUMY

Trad climber
SHERMAN OAKS,CA
May 21, 2013 - 11:14am PT
Ron, I guess sadly you will die before you wake up.

Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 21, 2013 - 11:15am PT
No Ron. You read all my posts perhaps, noticed a general strong criticism of present day american politics and culture, and then proceeded to project your own prejudices to form an explanation. That is a notion. If you wish to proceed to the theory stage you would test your idea, and to your credit you do seem to actually engage in the process of enquiry much more than the other deniers.

Anyway, if you like I am not loath to examine my own motivations. As I stated I don't think I hate americans or the even the mythology of america, in fact its the mythology I like the most. Its just that it dosn't exactly jive with reality. Thus my criticism.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
May 21, 2013 - 11:16am PT
and just WTF is that frumy.



Well BK,, doesnt most theories start with a "notion"?
mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
May 21, 2013 - 11:21am PT
Yes, theories are not absolute. Theories are used to explain observable phenomena. Theories are modified and refined as more observations are made. This improves the predictive ability as well as our understanding.

Theories are only discarded when observations contradict the theory. There isn't a single SHRED OF EVIDENCE that contradicts the theories behind anthropogenic global climate change. NOT ONE.


NO Ron, EVERY theory starts with OBSERVATIONS!
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 21, 2013 - 11:23am PT
Hell yeah! Maybe even a good one. But even a seemingly shittty one can be proven to be good after all. The operative term is proven.

THe critical cultural element required to proceed to theory is a distinction of motivation. What is important to you - to be right or to get to whats right?


edit: technically Mechrist is right. Unless you like to hang out on the Religion vs Science thread.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
May 21, 2013 - 11:24am PT
Ive already said that Wes.. But the EFFECTS are certainly nothing more than theory as to man made issues. The rest is conjecture of a far past.

I just AGAIN last night watched that lame commercial with the little english girl yammering on about the "endangered polar bears" because of global warming. That is absolute poop and nothing more than a lie to enhance a THEORY.

Norton

Social climber
the Wastelands
May 21, 2013 - 11:26am PT
I just AGAIN last night watched that lame commercial with the little english girl yammering on about the "endangered polar bears" because of global warming. That is absolute poop and nothing more than a lie to enhance a THEORY.


I agree

Beautiful theories are often ravaged by gangs of brutal facts.


poop or no poop
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 21, 2013 - 11:32am PT
As disingenuous and missleading as we can all agree those tear jerker commercials are, the theory of polar beer survival is just plainly uncertain. There is some thought that they may turn into land based predators, for instance. Like the Spotted Owl, maybe its not the best flag bearer for the ecologicla change that is empirically proven to be happening, where the theory is sound.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
May 21, 2013 - 11:36am PT
I wonder how many climate change skeptics live in Moore, OK.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
May 21, 2013 - 11:37am PT
Thats putting it "mildly" Bruce.

The spotted owl and polar bear were the FLAGships until they were shot down.(pun intended) They were carefully orchestrated tactics in an effort to enhance the global warming theorists. The info was skewed to THEIR purpose,, in other words, exactly the same as you accuse of the "deniers"..


Now the real question, is if the theories are so solid, then WHY engage in false propaganda to enhance it?
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 21, 2013 - 11:46am PT
I don't dispute it at all. We agree. Now perhaps you better understand my criticism of the overall intelligence and motivations that dominate American culture. The stupidity is not entirely confined to right wingers obvioiusly. If we were all smart, none of us would focus on the cute bunnies and polar bears when there are more certain indicators of what is happening.

If we could focus on "best understanding of reality" rather than "iconic mythology" then at least we'ed get past this thing about wether its happening. But that just boring science.
Skeptimistic

Mountain climber
La Mancha
May 21, 2013 - 11:47am PT
I wonder how many climate change skeptics live in Moore, OK.

Considering it's square in the heart of the bible belt, I'm going to guess most of them.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
May 21, 2013 - 11:53am PT
Again NO ONE here says the climate isnt changing.. It is, has and WILL ALWAYS be changing. It has done so without mans interference for as long as records of any fashion have been kept and then some.

But there are many anomalies that contradict "warming". Alaska weather current is one of them. So is the GROWING antartic ice. So is Nevada weather for that matter. These are OBSERVATIONS of real time reality. But according to some have ZERO to do with "warming". So it seems we have MANY anomalies and some false ehnacements to go along with them, and yet theres no room for doubt?
mountainlion

Trad climber
California
May 21, 2013 - 11:54am PT
The propoganda of polar bears isn't false Ron--we just have more data now--and like all scientists we have to take into account new observations--Even Einstien's theory's get modified when new information or detection methods appear.

Where is your criticism of the false propaganda being distributed by Big Oil, Multiantional Corporations, and Superwealthy????

On your "Art of death" thread you answered one of my objections to killing animals for sport because I don't like animals being wasted for trophy's...you explained that not one bit of the animal is wasted...I trust your telling the truth because you seem to be a nature lover, and a good person at heart...do you really think that people who want to change our energy systems to something other than FOSSIL FUEL have any goal other than preserving the nature you so love??
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
May 21, 2013 - 12:01pm PT
NOT in the least Mt lion.. You take the ball and run far to far with it.

If you ever followed the politard threads, youve seen where i want America to rely on its own fossil fuel sources to USHER IN alternatives as that is the only way i see them outbidding big oil, is for it to be IMPERATIVE to do so. As long as we continue to suck the oil from other world wide sources no such improvements will be made.

I know deep down that sucking the moistures from our rock can ONLY have dire consequences, perhaps hundreds or thousands of years down the road,, WHO KNOWS!?? I know that CLEANER air is better air.


And YES Mt lion, the polar bear thing was/is a SCAM,, period.. "There arent just a few more bears,, theres a HELL of a lot more bears" . So sayeth biologists who have been studying them for the past two decades. As well as the Native people of the area.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 21, 2013 - 12:08pm PT
But there are many anomalies that contradict "warming". Alaska weather current is one of them. So is the GROWING antartic ice. So is Nevada weather for that matter. These are OBSERVATIONS of real time reality. But according to some have ZERO to do with "warming". So it seems we have MANY anomalies and some false ehnacements to go along with them, and yet theres no room for doubt?


It has to do with a WEIGHTING of doubt. You, me, Knotts up his ass and damn near everyone here are at a serious disadvantage in weighting the significance of the "anomolies" and parsing the technical processes required. It is that simple. They are rabbit holes that are fun to explore and no one should be discouraged from doing so certainly, but this does not give us lisence to assume we have the skill or "wisdom" to discern the import.

Look at it this way. Anybody can stuff a bird. I know that for a fact. But it takes an expert not to botch the job. If it is critical to not botch the job we really need the experts to find the devil in the details or, if we really insist on getting our hands dirty, do it under guidance of credible mentors.

Rick, Knotty, The Chief and various other blowhards insist on doing the job themselves, with predictable results.
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