Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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slayton

Trad climber
Here and There
Jul 17, 2013 - 03:02am PT
rick sumner
We thankyou for your continuing contributions to the chicken little sky is falling propaganda Bruce. NGFYS

Do you care to share why you feel that way? Or is your brief diatribe enough to convince those that you wish to do so?
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Jul 17, 2013 - 09:30am PT
Hey Dick,what is your propaganda called?
Certainly not the truth.
1 2 3 .
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jul 24, 2013 - 12:01am PT
Excuse me for interrupting my fellow idiots summer slumber away from the AGW war, but a new paper came to my attention. This fellow Akasofu is a geophycicist from UAF. He seems to hit on all the same mechanisms, excluding the present point in the Milankovitch cycles, i did on my simplified natural process explanation of our present point in climate change. Natural climate change- now that is something to think about while we await battle over the release of AR5.

http://scienceandpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/reprint/present_halting.pdf
Tricouni

Mountain climber
Vancouver
Jul 24, 2013 - 02:43am PT
Fresh blood in this thread, at least for the moment.... I'm not a climate scientist, just a lowly geologist.

Rick, an analogy: give me a list of numbers made from the last 4 digits of a page from a phone book. You'll probably agree that the series is (pseudo)random. I could probably fit a curve to that series of numbers that would "explain" the series quite well. But my curve/equation would have no predictive power whatever. It may be complicated math, but it's not science.

That's the problem with this paper: a lack of predictive power, and we could no doubt do other fits to the data. It's all ad hoc.

In a way, it's somewhat similar to what Ptolemy and his followers had to do with his earth-centric cosmology. As more data accumulated, the hypothesis had to be tweaked with more and more complicated gears, wheels and what-not, all added after the fact. Copernicus's theory, on the other hand, had real predictive power, needed modification, and has been verified by observational data. THAT was science.

The problem as I see it with all the anti-AGW papers is that none of them provide a plausible alternative to the fact that increasing atmospheric CO2 leads to increased temperature, as first demonstrated by Arrhenius (pointed out many times on this forum). This effect is experimentally demonstrable, is well understood theoretically, and has been verified by observational data. THAT is science.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Jul 24, 2013 - 09:29am PT
Easy on the nail pounders please.

Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
And every fool knows, a dog needs a home, and...
Jul 24, 2013 - 09:53am PT
Ed sure swings his scientific framing hammer with confidence and accuracy, doesn't he wilbeer.

He starts gently enough...

(bang bang)

point is now planted, and can stand up on its own. Then, like a man on a mission to complete a job and get paid?

Bang bang BANG!

Wash rinse repeat, the framers cadence (before nail guns that is)

(bang bang) Bang Bang BANG!

(bang bang) Bang Bang BANG!

(bang bang) Bang Bang BANG!

(bang bang) Bang Bang BANG!

(bang bang) Bang Bang BANG!

(bang bang) Bang Bang BANG!

Till the paper is nailed down and its on to the next - denial.

All the while he's pleasant and even nice, about it, despite the repeated insults hurled his way. Plus he shows us how the house of science gets built, one plank, one fact, one data element at a time. Its a BIG HOUSE. And a lotta nails....

Nawmean?

DMT
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Jul 24, 2013 - 11:40am PT
Yep.

Probably pretty good on a steep roof also.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
And every fool knows, a dog needs a home, and...
Jul 24, 2013 - 12:02pm PT
I should think so.

DMT
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jul 24, 2013 - 12:06pm PT
Yeah, Ed is a good man with a keen analytical mind and a gift for writing in a clear concise manner. He could teach us lowly nail pounders many things we could never understand about the natural world around us on our own. Unfortunately though, he's hitched his horse to the wrong wagon here. The wheels are coming off and the new natural world models are passing him by. Thanks a lot Bruce for your good cheer. Time to go back to slumber till their is something more substantial to argue.
dirtbag

climber
Jul 24, 2013 - 12:20pm PT
^^^^^ Christ, what an idiot. ^^^^^
Paul Martzen

Trad climber
Fresno
Jul 24, 2013 - 12:30pm PT
Funny analogy Dingus.

Riley posted the following link on another thread.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kpigok-lVK4

It has a very good explanation of changes in the jet stream that account for both unusually cold weather as well as unusually hot weather. As the arctic warms there is less temperature difference between the arctic and the tropics so the air flow between slows down a bit. This results in a slower jet stream. Like on a slower river, the bends and loops of the jet stream become larger and slower. The air in the jet stream flows from west to east, but the waves, bends and loops of the jet stream also gradually move from west to east. As the air slows down, the bends get larger and move slower.

The jet stream forms a dividing line between hot tropical air on the south side and cold air on the north side. With larger bends in the jet stream, hot air gets to move much further north where the jet stream bends further north and cold air gets to move much further south where the jet stream bends much further south. Since the bends of the jet stream are moving slower, the unusual weather remains for much longer in each location.

This explains how rather large changes in local weather can result from fairly small changes in average temperature.
bobinc

Trad climber
Portland, Or
Jul 24, 2013 - 01:20pm PT
To continue Rick Sumner's analogy: he himself is hitched to a Hot Wheel.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jul 24, 2013 - 01:34pm PT
Rick's ideology makes him science-proof, no need for him to read, understand or engage a single word that Ed wrote. Or Tricouni wrote, for that matter. But Ed does a brilliant job day after day, helped by others, showing and telling how science works for the benefit of readers with minds less tightly nailed shut.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jul 24, 2013 - 01:55pm PT
On a more positive note, just looked through the latest issue of Eos and found this:

Tropical storm Sandy was a 1-in-700-year event
...
Using information of tropical cyclone tracks for the whole North Atlantic from 1950 to 2010, Hall and Sobel calculated the odds that a similar storm—a category 1 or higher hurricane with an approach angle to New Jersey at least as close to perpendicular as Sandy—could happen again. According to the authors’ statistical model, the occurrence rate of a Sandy- style storm is 0.0014 per year, meaning that if future hurricane activity matches the recent past, a storm like Sandy could be expected on average about once every 700 years.

The fact that Sandy happened, the authors say, means either that New York and New Jersey were very unlucky or that climate change has increased the probability of a Sandy- like storm beyond what they found with their steady- climate statistical model.

(Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1002/grl.50395, 2013)


http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EO300011/abstract
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jul 24, 2013 - 02:03pm PT
And from last week's Eos (I'm just catching up), this note:

Decade of climate extremes

The first decade of the 21st century was the warmest decade recorded since modern measurements began around 1850, according to a 3 July report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). In addition, a pronounced increase in the global temperature occurred over the 4 decades between 1971 and 2010.

The report, The Global Climate 2001–2010: A Decade of Climate Extremes, also noted that the decade of 2001–2010 was marked by dramatic climate and weather extremes, including the European heat wave of 2003; floods in Pakistan in 2010; Hurricane Katrina, which hit the U.S. Gulf Coast in 2005; and long-term droughts in the Amazon Basin, Australia, and East Africa. “Many of these events and trends can be explained by the natural variability of the climate system. Rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, however, are also affecting the climate. Detecting the respective roles being played by climate variability and humanity- induced climate change is one of the key challenges facing researchers today,” the report states.

“WMO’s report shows that global warming was significant from 1971 to 2010 and that the decadal rate of increase between 1991–2000 and 2001–2010 was unprecedented,” said WMO secretary- general Michel Jarraud. “Rising concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases are changing our climate, with far- reaching implications for our environment and our oceans, which are absorbing both carbon dioxide and heat.”


http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EO290003/abstract
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 24, 2013 - 02:29pm PT
This is just too darn funny to not repost:

Unfortunately though, he's hitched his horse to the wrong wagon here. The wheels are coming off and the new natural world models are passing him by.


Hahahaha, the wheels are coming off... What a joke. But what do you expect from a person who can only put value into their preset beliefs.

Rick, time to take a good look at why you believe what you do, because it doesn't seem to be based in the reality as we folks on Earth experience it.

But do carry on, it provides my day with some good chuckles.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jul 24, 2013 - 04:48pm PT
Ron, what exactly did you say about the jet stream, that earned you accusations of silliness?

Here's something on the general topic that I (and a coauthor) said recently:

"Recent studies explore links between Arctic warming and mid-latitude winters or weather extremes (Screen and Simon 2013), including the dramatic experience of Superstorm Sandy (Greene et al. 2013). Decreased summer Arctic sea-ice extent has been linked to the development of high-amplitude wave patterns during winter, increasing the frequency cold weather outbreaks across the mid-latitudes (Overland and Wang 2010; Francis and Vavrus 2012; Tang et al. 2013). Observations also indicate a connection between amplified wave patterns driven by changes in Arctic climate and increased early winter snowfall, early snow melt, extreme summer heat and drought (Francis and Vavrus 2012; Greene and Monger 2012; Greene et al. 2013; Liu et al. 2012; Petoukhov et al. 2012)."
Norton

Social climber
the Wastelands
Jul 24, 2013 - 05:05pm PT
you found someone with respected credentials that agrees, Chief!

but even a blind squirrel finds an acorn from time to time....

how does presenting this Judith person magically negate the consensus of the majority of Climate Scientist?

I wanna go to the Island for race week before I croak, Chief..
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jul 24, 2013 - 05:52pm PT
Not much of a pause, once you remove some of the natural variability.



http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/4/044022
lostinshanghai

Social climber
someplace
Jul 24, 2013 - 06:41pm PT
“Words of warning wisdom from Real Climate Scientist and not some ST fanatic left wing zealot "Nailers".”

Judith A. Curry is the chairman of the School of Earth and Atmospheric
Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology

She gets her funding from the Koch brothers: Stupid. Spreads disinformation just like you.

Then again maybe they are paying you to spread the disinformation.

Which is it? Stupid or for the Koch brothers.
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