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Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Apr 14, 2014 - 10:50am PT
An analysis of temperature data since 1500 all but rules out the possibility that global warming in the industrial era is just a natural fluctuation in the earth's climate, according to a new study by McGill University physics professor Shaun Lovejoy.

The study, published online April 6 in the journal Climate Dynamics, represents a new approach to the question of whether global warming in the industrial era has been caused largely by man-made emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. Rather than using complex computer models to estimate the effects of greenhouse-gas emissions, Lovejoy examines historical data to assess the competing hypothesis: that warming over the past century is due to natural long-term variations in temperature.

"This study will be a blow to any remaining climate-change deniers," Lovejoy says. "Their two most convincing arguments - that the warming is natural in origin, and that the computer models are wrong - are either directly contradicted by this analysis, or simply do not apply to it."

Lovejoy's study applies statistical methodology to determine the probability that global warming since 1880 is due to natural variability. His conclusion: the natural-warming hypothesis may be ruled out "with confidence levels great than 99%, and most likely greater than 99.9%."
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/04/140411153453.htm
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-014-2128-2
karen roseme

Mountain climber
san diego
Apr 15, 2014 - 09:49am PT
Climate Efforts Falling Short, U.N. Panel Says

In a report unveiled here, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that decades of foot-dragging by political leaders had propelled humanity into a critical situation, with greenhouse emissions rising faster than ever. Though it remains technically possible to keep planetary warming to a tolerable level, only an intensive push over the next 15 years to bring those emissions under control can achieve the goal, the committee found.


The intergovernmental panel warned that the longer countries delayed aggressive action, the more difficult it would be to limit global warming to the level that the international community has agreed to, namely a rise in the global average temperature of no more than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above the preindustrial level.

Scientists fear that exceeding that level could produce drastic effects, such as the collapse of ice sheets, a rapid rise in sea levels, difficulty growing enough food, huge die-offs of forests, and mass extinctions of plant and animal species.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/14/science/earth/un-climate-panel-warns-speedier-action-is-needed-to-avert-disaster.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Apr 15, 2014 - 02:36pm PT
Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific storm track using a multiscale global climate model
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/04/09/1403364111
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Apr 17, 2014 - 03:10pm PT
A Climate Report to America – by Ray Grigg
April 16, 2014

Scientists — those specialists who explain to us how the world works — are becoming increasingly alarmed about our slow and inadequate response to the threat of global climate change. Their scientific evidence has confirmed an unfolding crisis that is serious enough for them to address their concerns directly to the public. One such example of this highly unusual appeal is a report to the citizens of the United States from the Climate Science Panel of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). It joins similar appeals from the Royal Society, the Royal Institution, the US National Academy of Sciences, the US Geological Survey, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and national science bodies from about 30 other countries.

The AAAS report, What We Know: The Reality, Risks and Response to Climate Change, is not so much a scientific document as a restrained plea containing a mixture of indisputable evidence, considered advice and reasoned warnings. The impact of this report comes from its tone of sincerity, exasperation and constrained alarm.

The report begins by making clear that no essential doubt exists in the scientific community about the reality or severity of global climate change. It rejects the argument that “climate change is still a topic of significant scientific disagreement” by declaring that “about 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human-caused climate change is happening.” Then the tone darkens. “Thus,” it asserts, “it is important and increasingly urgent” for the public to be “aware that climate change is increasing the likelihood of certain local disasters”. Then the tone gets even darker. “Many people do not yet understand that there is a small, but real chance of abrupt, unpredictable and potentially irreversible changes with highly damaging impacts on people in the United States and around the world.”

Two powerful phrases explode from the early portions of this report. One of them is “important and increasingly urgent”. The other is a “real chance of abrupt, unpredictable and potentially irreversible changes”. These are much more than casual expressions of concern. To emphasize the seriousness of the situation, “abrupt, unpredictable and potentially irreversible” is repeated throughout the report. Humanity’s failure to curb greenhouse gas emissions — now 36 billion tonnes per year and continuing to increase — is moving climate change toward critical and uncontrollable instability. And worse, the AAAS scientists admit that they don’t know where the dangerous tipping point is located.

But scientists do know many things. “Average global temperature has increased by about 1.4°F [0.66°C] over the last 100 years,” they note. “Sea level is rising, and some types of extreme events — such as heat waves and heavy precipitation events — are happening more frequently. Recent scientific findings indicate that climate change is likely responsible for the increase in the intensity of many of these events in recent years.” The report goes on to add that “Earth’s climate is on a path to warm beyond the range of what has been experienced over the past millions of years” and that “the CO2 we produce accumulates in Earth’s atmosphere for decades, centuries, and longer.” From a human perspective, therefore, climate change is essentially permanent.

This unprecedented situation is in stark contrast with public opinion. “In 2013,” according to the AAAS, “only 42% of American adults understood that ‘most scientists think global warming is happening’ and 33% said, ‘there is a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether or not global warming is happening.’ Twenty percent said they ‘don’t know enough to say’.” From the perspective of the AAAS scientists who are measuring an unfolding climate crisis, a majority of Americans are either misreading the science or are the victims of invented doubt.

In an effort to communicate directly to the ordinary American, the report employs language and metaphors they are likely understand. “The science linking human activities to climate change is analogous to the science linking smoking to lung and cardiovascular diseases,” it states. And “greenhouse gases have supercharged the climate just as steroids supercharged hitting in Major League Baseball.” The AAAS goes on to remind Americans about their tradition of insuring their homes and lives against loss, and then explains that cutting greenhouse gas emissions is really a similar risk-reduction action. It returns again and again to the possibility of “abrupt, unpredictable and potentially irreversible [climate change].”

In describing the other possible theories accounting for climate change, the report carefully explains that no other factors except the recent rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide from 280 parts per million to 400 ppm accounts for the planet’s warming. It notes that “in the U.S., new record high temperatures now regularly outnumber new record lows by a ratio of 2:1,” adding that “since 1950, heat waves worldwide have become longer and more frequent” and that “the global area hit by extremely hot summertime temperatures has increased 50-fold” with the “fingerprint of global warming… firmly identified in these trends.” It warns that “climate change has amplified the threat of wildfires in many places”, including “some regions where they have been absent in recent history”, and anticipates an increased “threat of ‘mega-fires’ — large fires that burn proportionately greater areas.” It reminds Americans that rising sea levels are threatening many coastal towns, cities and regions — particularly Florida. It advises of the northward movement of serious tropical diseases and refers to the concern of “senior officers and officials in the U.S. Department of Defence” about the increased military threats arising from climate-induced social instability. It endorses the IPCC’s position that present emission rates “could cause another 4 to 8° F [1.6 to 3.8°C] warming before the year 2100.”

This is a document that carefully and calmly informs. In doing so, however, it also manages to convey a desperate, pleading and chilling tone. It’s written by American scientists who are so alarmed about an unfolding climate crisis that their only recourse is to write an honest and frank report to their fellow citizens. But it also make sober reading for everyone else.

http://tidechange.ca/2014/04/16/a-climate-report-to-america-by-ray-grigg/
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Apr 17, 2014 - 03:27pm PT
Aren't we missing over a thousand posts on this thread? What coward erased their presence?
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Apr 17, 2014 - 03:54pm PT
Aren't we missing over a thousand posts on this thread? What coward erased their presence?

Haha you got trolled over a thousand times.

DMT
Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Apr 17, 2014 - 04:33pm PT
25k + and sketchy still thinks it's about todays local weather
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Apr 17, 2014 - 08:42pm PT
Aren't we missing over a thousand posts on this thread?

I'm too lazy to go back and look. Did Ed get that fed-up? Naw, I doubt it.

Who would be that embarrassed by their past posts?? Is Sketch next?
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Apr 27, 2014 - 03:08pm PT
Credit: wilbeer


wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Apr 27, 2014 - 05:59pm PT
The truth of the matter really ticks some off ,aye ,Bruce.
TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Apr 27, 2014 - 09:10pm PT
http://www.thepiratescove.us/2014/04/26/if-all-you-see-1111/
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
May 1, 2014 - 11:04am PT
Cant you keep your dirty laundry north of the border?
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
May 2, 2014 - 11:23am PT
A new study has found that ethanol use in Sao Paolo increases smog.

Switch from gasoline to ethanol linked to higher ozone levels

"The researchers got fuel-sale information to track consumption trends from 2009 to 2011. Government officials provided data from Sao Paulo’s network of air monitoring stations. The researchers also examined meteorological data and traffic information to take account of other factors that may influence the pollution readings.

The authors said they were “very surprised” to see that ozone concentrations got worse as ethanol use rose. That might be because gasoline produces more nitrogen dioxide emissions, Geiger said. At certain high levels, nitrogen dioxide combines with hydroxyl radicals, a short-lived type of atmospheric chemical that cleans the troposphere of ozone, among other pollutants.

However, gasoline caused other problems, the researchers found: When that fuel became more popular, emissions of carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxide rose. (The authors did not study other pollutants, such as fine particles, which are a focus of their next study.

Geoff Cooper, senior vice president of research and analysis at the Renewable Fuels Assn., an industry group based in Washington, said the Sao Paulo results were not applicable to the U.S.

“Vehicles in the U.S. must comply with emissions controls requirements that are different (and more stringent) than Brazil,” he said in an email. “Further, the ethanol blend levels examined in the study are unique to Brazil and are not approved in the U.S. Finally, urban ozone formation occurs from rather complex photochemistry that is influenced by a number of factors unique to local climates.”

Salvo acknowledged the differences but said “there’s no reason to think this concern about ozone isn’t worth exploring in communities with blended fuel,” such as the U.S."


Finally, urban ozone formation occurs from rather complex photochemistry that is influenced by a number of factors unique to local climates.”

What, they have a different sun in Sao Paolo?

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
May 3, 2014 - 11:49am PT
See if you can unwrap your pea brain from its programmed attention to cultural absurdities, such as the Toronto bloviator,long enough to fathom the following Bruce.

http://investors.com/ibd-editorials/050214-699454-americans-are-being-made-to-suffer-to-pay-for-green-movements-radical-ideas.htm?=full
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
May 7, 2014 - 10:17am PT
Its official. Yall deniers need to study this report.
Report says climate change is here, lays out U.S. impacts

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/#storylink=cpy
DMT

wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
May 7, 2014 - 10:26am PT
Yall deniers need to study this. Thanks for the laugh ,DMT
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
May 7, 2014 - 10:37am PT
You have that y'all ....down
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
May 7, 2014 - 10:37am PT
OK I read it. Did you read YOUR homework assignment?

DMT
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
May 7, 2014 - 10:40am PT
Sketch I thought you were all about defending dumb deniers (a Quitoxic task if ever there was one). But I see you have quaffed the denier koolaide and will latch onto any ole shred of denial.

Its nice to have ONE PhD to fan the flames of denial.

Enjoy your Deniers Fire.

DMT
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
May 7, 2014 - 11:08am PT
Its not my report.

DMT
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