Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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nature

climber
Boulder, CO
Sep 27, 2013 - 03:05pm PT
science marches on:
http://seattletimes.com/html/businesstechnology/2021908905_apeuclimatechange.html

meanwhile The Chuff and Rong keep blowing hot air (maybe it's their fault..... alone?)
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 27, 2013 - 03:05pm PT
The Hiatus.

The Hiatus.


Down played and revised in the past week per Nations whining about the original verbiage stating it's existence in the "Complete" report that will released on Monday.


The Hiatus will indeed be the Himalayan Glacier projection of this report. But a far worse spear in the IPCC's side than that ever was.




monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 27, 2013 - 03:08pm PT
Yes, the 'hiatus'.

Look very closely, it's there.



It's also here too, right?

command error

Trad climber
Colorado
Sep 27, 2013 - 03:16pm PT
We believe in the scientific method.
Hypotheses, assertions, models and scary scenarios must be supported by
actual evidence, data and observations – before we acquiesce to demands
that we hogtie our energy system, economy, jobs and living standards.

Up to now you climate wing-nuts have presented no such evidence.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/26/desperate-times-in-climate-alarmism/





rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Sep 27, 2013 - 03:28pm PT
You miss the point Fortmental and others. What I get out of Otto et al and other recent reassessments is that the direct response (TCR) to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 is trending downwards, however slightly. What they do from here with equilibrium climate sensitivity is consider a raft of positive feedbacks, but not negative feedbacks, to reach ECS. The reassessed TCR is a good start. When the very real negative feedbacks of aerosols, GCR induced cloud increases, oceanic oscillations, fluxes in solar wind and the possibility of prolonged periods of reduced TSI, etc, etc,, begin to be factored in the ECS will come down as well. Eventually, after the demise of IPCC and other alarmist organizations, the consensus will reach equilibrium with reality.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Sep 27, 2013 - 03:37pm PT
The IPCC SPM is our top story today, but science continues on many other fronts as well. I just picked up the 13 Sep issue of Science and noticed these articles:

Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict
A rapidly growing body of research examines whether human conflict can be affected by climatic changes. Drawing from archaeology, criminology, economics, geography, history, political science, and psychology, we assemble and analyze the 60 most rigorous quantitative studies and document, for the first time, a striking convergence of results. We find strong causal evidence linking climatic events to human conflict across a range of spatial and temporal scales and across all major regions of the world. The magnitude of climate’s influence is substantial: for each one standard deviation (1σ) change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more extreme rainfall, median estimates indicate that the frequency of interpersonal violence rises 4% and the frequency of intergroup conflict rises 14%. Because locations throughout the inhabited world are expected to warm 2σ to 4σ by 2050, amplified rates of human conflict could represent a large and critical impact of anthropogenic climate change.

Channelized ice melting in the ocean boundary layer beneath Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica
Ice shelves play a key role in the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheets by buttressing their seaward-flowing outlet glaciers; however, they are exposed to the underlying ocean and may weaken if ocean thermal forcing increases. An expedition to the ice shelf of the remote Pine Island Glacier, a major outlet of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet that has rapidly thinned and accelerated in recent decades, has been completed. Observations from geophysical surveys and long-term oceanographic instruments deployed down bore holes into the ocean cavity reveal a buoyancy-driven boundary layer within a basal channel that melts the channel apex by 0.06 meter per day, with near-zero melt rates along the flanks of the channel. A complex pattern of such channels is visible throughout the Pine Island Glacier shelf.

Marine taxa track local climate velocities
Organisms are expected to adapt or move in response to climate change, but observed distribution shifts span a wide range of directions and rates. Explanations often emphasize biological distinctions among species, but general mechanisms have been elusive. We tested an alternative hypothesis: that differences in climate velocity—the rate and direction that climate shifts across the landscape—can explain observed species shifts. We compiled a database of coastal surveys around North America from 1968 to 2011, sampling 128 million individuals across 360 marine taxa. Climate velocity explained the magnitude and direction of shifts in latitude and depth much more effectively than did species characteristics. Our results demonstrate that marine species shift at different rates and directions because they closely track the complex mosaic of local climate velocities.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 27, 2013 - 03:41pm PT
MONO.. WTF is this?
FortMentäl

Social climber
Albuquerque, NM
Sep 27, 2013 - 04:04pm PT
the only point you all agree on is that not everything published is correct.

This doesn't even make any sense.

Scientific papers are correct given the data analyzed. Predictions are limited and qualified as such and may prove incorrect when new data comes in. The denialsphere only point to data taken out of context then re-interpreted through blogs funded by oil/gas/Christian/conservative/libertarian money.

You miss the point Fortmental and others. What I get out of Otto et al and other recent reassessments is that the direct response (TCR) to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 is trending downwards, however slightly. What they do from here with equilibrium climate sensitivity is consider a raft of positive feedbacks, but not negative feedbacks, to reach ECS. The reassessed TCR is a good start. When the very real negative feedbacks of aerosols, GCR induced cloud increases, oceanic oscillations, fluxes in solar wind and the possibility of prolonged periods of reduced TSI, etc, etc,, begin to be factored in the ECS will come down as well. Eventually, after the demise of IPCC and other alarmist organizations, the consensus will reach equilibrium with reality.

This is like the claim made that arctic ice disappearance is trending downward. You DO realize that you are saying the same thing, don't you?
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Relic MilkEye and grandpoobah of HRKRNH
Sep 27, 2013 - 04:09pm PT
There ya go Chiloe,, with a 4 degr3ee raise, the world will be out on the streets yelling maddly at each other (more CO2) and thus engage in fighting all over that predicted 4 degree temp and the world as we know it will end...
Its going to be about ten degrees warmer today for a high! I guess i should go out and kill a few folks cuz "GW" made me do it..
~~~~Its the end of the world as we know it,, its the end of the world and you know it,,its the end of the world as we know it and i feeeeeel fine~~~~
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Sep 27, 2013 - 04:31pm PT
The IPCC SPM is our top story today, but science continues on many other fronts as well. I just picked up the 13 Sep issue of Science and noticed these articles:
Yep, gotta keep the gravy train rollin!
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 27, 2013 - 04:49pm PT
Yea, Chief, that's the latest 'hiatus' in surface air temps. I knew you could find it. Anderson said it was being hidden.

Doesn't look very significant, in light of the total picture, does it?

We'll have more periods of 'hiatus', each higher than the next.



I take it you couldn't find a 'hiatus' in ocean heat content?

Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Relic MilkEye and grandpoobah of HRKRNH
Sep 27, 2013 - 04:53pm PT
Oooo Dont forget OBESITY the "disease" shall spread like the wild fires over GW too! A "study" spawned right here on ST by yours truly! I shall apply for a million dollar grant to study phat folks now..If i put "green" in the name im sure im in like flint.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 27, 2013 - 05:07pm PT
Well MONO. in the same context of time as you keep posting in the above graph, the HIATUS is indeed significant.

k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Sep 27, 2013 - 05:09pm PT
Now that the latest is out from the IPCC, skeptics will have less and less right-wing propaganda to gag on, seeing that all their arguments have been handily dispelled by real science.

But the stalwart denialists will keep on, no matter what I suppose. If they haven't gagged on the spin by now, they they will form by the tens to defend their right to deny science, its methods, and anybody that prescribes to the idea that man can have an influence on our environment.

But for those who have open minds and are able to understand how the scientific process works, the case is closed. The only problem is that the fossil-fuel industry has million$ to pour into the minds of those who are easily brainwashed by propaganda, and the voices that tell them what they want to hear.

While this thread will undoubtedly continue with the likes of Chief-Loud-Mouth and the others who pretend they want to understand, we should move the real debate on to possible solutions.

So have at it guys, keep up your impeccable work of denying what hard science has to offer you, and demeaning those who actually care about our future.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 27, 2013 - 05:12pm PT
Yep Chief, we've had them before, we'll have them again.

Each at the end of a warming period, like the record 97/98 El-Nino you guys like to start your 'hiatus' from.

Let us know when ocean heat content takes a 'hiatus'.

Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Sep 27, 2013 - 05:37pm PT
You miss the point Fortmental and others. What I get out of Otto et al and other recent reassessments....



all very well Rick but you have yet to provide a case for anyone to give a flying fuk what you think about anything other than installing siding.

Jus sayin"
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Sep 27, 2013 - 05:47pm PT
Bruce,I really do not want to know how Rick puts up siding,either.If he actually really has.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Sep 27, 2013 - 07:23pm PT
Damn. Are you serious? That sounds desperately grim.

I always thought his life was a bit like this:





Or is that just how he gets to the bingo hall?



OK we'll leave him alone. Its that other Rick we're really after anyway. You know, prfessor Sumners.
dirtbag

climber
Sep 28, 2013 - 08:12am PT
One of the most wasteful ways to spend one's time and energy is being reasonable to unreasonable people.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Sep 28, 2013 - 12:43pm PT
An excellent article in the National Post with direct relevance to this thread. I dare Chuff.....

Oh forget about him..... I dare Rick Sumners and Ron Anderson to read this article and consider how it is relevant to their strong and certain belief about AGW in relation to their very poor grasp of the science.

It has to do with that humilty stuff again.....

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/09/27/age-old-reverence-of-knowledge-has-made-people-too-afraid-to-admit-what-they-dont-know/




A sampler:

“The feeling of knowing is a sensation, it’s not an actual rational conclusion that people come up with,” says Robert A. Burton, a neurologist and author of A Skeptic’s Guide to the Mind: What Neuroscience Can and Cannot Tell Us About Ourselves.

People believe they have consciously swum through the logic and deduced the evidence to come to their ‘knowing-ness,’ Dr. Burton says. But their feeling of knowing actually comes from their unconscious — processes of the mind that happen automatically.

That feeling of knowing — that desire or need to know — depends on many factors, he says: a person’s personality, biological makeup and socialization. (If you were raised by know-it-all parents who rewarded the right answer, then guess what brings validation later in life?)

And it may be that it could become an addiction, he says, the know-it-all’s high. The same area of the brain lights up when a person takes drugs or gambles — the same neurons in the reward pathway of the brain shoot dopamine into the prefrontal cortex, amygdala and nucleus accumbens, he says. The dopamine heightens the feeling of pleasure.

Based on experience, I don't expect you to regard any of this stuff with anything but dismissive contempt and maybe a self gratifying comment about "psycho babble" being beneath your dignity, but if you do in fact think that psycho babble is a factor here - which you do, considering your accusations of our suffering from it - then you must read it and you must discuss it.

Discuss it. Get it? You know, consider others ideas and form your own, provide elements of validation, evolve, grow....... become a member of civilized society.

Thats right chuff, not for you.


Oh... I forgot about our star phantom post -and-run lurker and firmly established wise man Werner. We eagerly look forward to your sage commentary and perhaps even engagement in discussion.
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