Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 27, 2014 - 05:04pm PT
A ways back on this thread, I described a time series regression model that fits observed global temperatures pretty well, predicting them from Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), the multivariate ENSO index, and global mean CO2. I showed such models for NOAA and UAH temperature series, and estimated but did not show them for NASA and RSS series as well.

The approach works equally well, and reaches basically the same conclusions, applied to the new CW13 global temperatures. That is, it confirms that AOD, TSI and ENSO each have significant net effect, but CO2 effects are stronger than those, and needed to explain temperature's upward climb.

Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 27, 2014 - 05:20pm PT
What's the interpolation method used to "fill in the blanks"? 5 degrees is pretty huge.
Fortmental, a good overview also encompassing the new CW13 data has just been posted at Realclimate, where Stefan Rahmstorf offers the following:
How good is the interpolation into regions not regularly covered by weather stations? In any case, of course, better than simply ignoring the gaps, as the HadCRUT and NOAA data have done so far. The truly global average is important, since only it is directly related to the energy balance of our planet and thus the radiative forcing by greenhouse gases. An average over just part of the globe is not. The Arctic has been warming disproportionately in the last ten to fifteen years.

But how well the interpolation works we know only since the important work of Cowtan and Way. These colleagues have gone to the trouble of carefully validating their method. Although there are no permanent weather stations in the Arctic, there is intermittent data from buoys and and from weather model reanalyses with which they could test their method. For the last few decades and Cowtan & Way also make use of satellite data (more on this in our article on underestimated warming). I therefore assume that the data from Cowtan & Way is the methodologically best estimate of the global mean temperature which we currently have. This correction is naturally small (less than a tenth of a degree) and hardly changes the long-term trend of global warming but if you look deeper into shorter periods of time, it can make a noticeable difference.
TLP

climber
Jan 27, 2014 - 05:37pm PT
Wow, Chiloe, thanks for posting this interesting new information. Seems to me I'd seen this paper mentioned or cited here and there, but this is a great little summary of its key points.
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Jan 27, 2014 - 06:26pm PT
I'm proficient with different interpolation methods, at least when it comes to building contour maps
More info would be greatly appreciated; I'm looking into drawing isobars on a region with 30 data points.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Jan 27, 2014 - 06:52pm PT
Science WILL continue.

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/523841/audi-bets-on-bio-gasoline-startup/
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 28, 2014 - 11:03am PT
Yes Wilbeer science will continue. Below is the entire Pattern Recognition in Physics issue that the extremists in the CAGW camp tried to suppress. The publisher, in response to intense pressure took the unusual course of shutting down the entire publication. Seems the maneuver backfired, as much in the world of blithering idiots does.

http://people.duke.edu/~ns2002/pdf/PRP_special_issue.pdf
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Jan 28, 2014 - 11:50am PT
The WHO's International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, tenth edition (ICD-10), has a diagnosis called dissocial personality disorder (F60.2):[10][11]

It is characterized by at least 3 of the following:

Callous unconcern for the feelings of others;
Gross and persistent attitude of irresponsibility and disregard for social norms, rules, and obligations;
Incapacity to maintain enduring relationships, though having no difficulty in establishing them;
Very low tolerance to frustration and a low threshold for discharge of aggression, including violence;
Incapacity to experience guilt or to profit from experience, particularly punishment;
Marked readiness to blame others or to offer plausible rationalizations for the behavior that has brought the person into conflict with society.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antisocial_personality_disorder
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 28, 2014 - 12:01pm PT
From working as a "general" contractor for over thirty years i have developed the ability to discern fact from fiction and professionals from phonies, Bruce.CAGW proponents seem to overly populate the latter of the aforementioned categories. It also didn't hurt that i lived in climate change ground zero for decades. I witnessed the warming of the eighties and nineties and the return to cooling since the new millenium. I was a believer early on, but when the hype seemed to escalate about AK when the climate was going in the opposite direction, when the environmentalists and bureaucrats staked it out as their ground zero and attacked all progress essential to the hard working populace, well i checked into it and found the rotting stinking core.




rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 28, 2014 - 12:23pm PT
You guys lost Bruce. I have a life, its outside and i'm enjoying it daily. Babble on brother.
TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Jan 28, 2014 - 12:56pm PT
http://www.clickorlando.com/news/panhandle-schools-to-close-for-possible-ice-snow/-/1637132/24143034/-/e27yp6z/-/index.html
Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Jan 28, 2014 - 01:01pm PT
Credit: Wade Icey
welcome to the Anthrocene
raymond phule

climber
Jan 28, 2014 - 01:49pm PT

Been warming for 25K years now. Move onto another scam that you can apply your supposed mathematical puzzling to.

It is always interesting when a claim is clearly disproved by a figure shown in the same post.
Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Jan 28, 2014 - 03:29pm PT
HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
Whhooooooooooooooa!
HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.
HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA! It is COOLING..
OK... so it's warming.
HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA! It is COOLING..


Thanks Chef. Keep up the good work,
Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Jan 28, 2014 - 03:40pm PT
Thanks Chef. Keep up the good work

Fail beyond Fail.


HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
Whhooooooooooooooa!
HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.

HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA! It is COOLING..
OK... so it's warming.
HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA! It is COOLING..
OK... so it's warming.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 28, 2014 - 06:12pm PT
Fortmental:
I wish I had the time to better critically evaluate the methodology... but did they use satellite data to verify the interpolation, then use those factors to figure in the pre-satellite data?

Malemute:
More info would be greatly appreciated; I'm looking into drawing isobars on a region with 30 data points.

For best account of their methods, see the full Cowtan & Way 2013 paper -- open access, available here:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2297/pdf

Briefly, as I understand it they used a rescaled version of the UAH satellite microwave data in constructing their "hybrid" time series (back to 1979) but not for the longer one back into the 1800s which kriged information from available measurements (not just weather stations on land). Over short distances (compared with reanalysis data) the kriging and hybrid methods perform similarly; over long distances the hybrid method works better over land, while kriging works better for sea surface temperatures. Air temperatures above snow and ice-covered seas behave more like air temperatures over land (because the air is insulated from marine effects). It's a well written and very interesting paper, with impressive amounts of thought and effort going into the validation steps.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 28, 2014 - 06:29pm PT
Shifting scales ... participated in a roundtable today on "Winter climate change & snowmobiling," which brought together a mixed group of scientists, land managers and snowmobile community leaders. The goal was to start a dialog and explore common ground. It succeeded at that, I think, as people left with new perspectives and some plans.

Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
U.N. Ambassador, Crackistan
Jan 28, 2014 - 06:30pm PT
Snowmobiles?

Really???? LARRY?????????

Ah HAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

Follow the money, lol.

DMT
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 28, 2014 - 06:35pm PT
Snowmobiles, me? That's what I said, but the organizers insisted, really nicely, so there I was. Doing much more listening than talking, as I should.

No money of course, pro bono.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Jan 28, 2014 - 07:11pm PT


Chiloe,The snowmobilers are pissed over here.[no snow]
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
U.N. Ambassador, Crackistan
Jan 28, 2014 - 07:11pm PT
No money of course, pro bono.

That's what ALL the climate billionaires say, LARRY.

Nice.....

DMT
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