Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

Search
Go

Discussion Topic

Return to Forum List
This thread has been locked
Messages 12401 - 12420 of total 21618 in this topic << First  |  < Previous  |  Show All  |  Next >  |  Last >>
TLP

climber
Dec 29, 2013 - 10:12pm PT
Rick, Thanks for explaining the reason for posting the link, but you need to read it again more carefully. The uncertainty is more a matter of what all of the solar parameters were doing in the 1700s, not the effects. Specifically, though the last few decades, when we benefit from actual measurements, show a good correlation of TSI and sunspot numbers, those parameters do not track well when you go back in time: the best analyses (depicted and discussed in the paper) show TSI being only slightly lower then, not drastically lower as for sunspot numbers. In another direction, it's far from clear (read the last page or two of the review) that that period was globally cooler, or just in Europe. In any case, the paper presents the range of uncertainty and explains what the authors collectively decided is the best interpretation, namely, that despite the best determination of the range of uncertainty, the known range of variation in non-human-influenced parameters is insufficient to account for recent temperature data.

There are definitely huge uncertainties in something this long-term and complex, and lots of data limitations and unanswered questions, but so far I haven't seen any scientific explanation of the data that we do have other than some degree of warming due to human activity. I don't care, I don't live at sea level, even the most dire suggestions of worst case won't come to pass in my little piece of the globe before I check out. Just trying to understand the world.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Dec 29, 2013 - 10:31pm PT
Hey. Go look at the late Mesozoic hothouse event. It is almost certain that that event was caused by a large increase in CO2. Pangea was breaking up and there was a lot of volcanism.

The wandering continents have now been studied through time using paleomag. You can look at it as a movie, or just go look at the work of Blakey: http://cpgeosystems.com/mollglobe.html

We know that flora assemblages during that time were temperate at very high latitudes. Well above the arctic and Antarctic circles. Sea levels were so high during the Cretaceous that N America was split down the middle with a N-S interior seaway. How do we know this? There is a big package of marine sediments that record it.

In stratigraphy, rises and falls of sea level are super important. Sea level through time has now been reconstructed (first by Exxon, I believe).

How do you get a 200 foot rise in sea level? If it is eustatic, meaning global and not due to local tectonics, it requires a lot of melting ice. Therefore paleoclimate is very important if you want to understand sedimentary rocks.

What has me worried is the Cretaceous example. We had high CO2, melted ice caps, plant and animal life showing a very warm climate, and it was at a level that could be achieved by man. Figuring out the CO2 concentrations during the late Mesozoic hot house is a tall order. We can reconstruct it based on things such as leaf stomata and isotope ratios, but different models give different answers. I'm no expert on the measurement of CO2 in paleoclimate, but the work has been done. It was 2 to 4 times today's levels.

We know for a fact that CO2 levels are higher than they have been at any point in the last 800,000 years. Samples of that atmosphere have been recovered from ice cores. Also, there is a correlation between CO2 and temperature.

So, if we burn all of the remaining oil and gas, and go through most of our coal, we will put ourselves at a level approaching what happened in the Cretaceous.

It isn't so simple as that. Lots of things affect climate. Aerosols or volcanic ash particles, ocean circulation, milankovitch cycles, probably many more.

As a scientist, and an Earth scientist at that, it does worry me. I'm no expert in paleoclimate causes, but I do correlate flooding surfaces all day long. So I am aware of the planet's fickle climate.

The cycles of high and low stand that we see in the deep past sedimentary record has been correlated to Milankovitch cycles. What we are seeing today is not related to the Milankovitch cycles. We should be in a cooling trend which will continue for tens of thousands of years.

Caveat: We do see a correlation between Milankovitch cycles and paleoclimate in the rock record. There are obviously other factors at play because not everything can be explained by the cycles alone. We know that there are feedback influences and the big driver: ocean circulation is not fully understood (but we are learning more every day).

There is a lot of info on this for anybody who is curious. If you are curious, that means you have an open mind. We know that some of the characters who dominate this thread do not have open minds. When new information comes in, they attack the messenger.

When you see somebody relying completely on ad hominem attacks, you can be pretty sure that they are in deep rhetorical trouble.

For example, The Chief will probably attack me as a hypocrite in the back pocket of big oil. I like to think that I am open minded.

For non-scientists, particularly Chief, Ron, and Rick, if they know how to read, they should all read this book:

Credit: BASE104

This book will help anyone who is trying to sort through good science and bad science.

BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Dec 29, 2013 - 11:06pm PT
I made most of my money on one play. I found a shallow gas zone that a bunch of 80's vintage wells drilled through and ignored. By the time I found it in the early 90's, most of the old wells were plugged, so the leases were open.

You can drill shallow gas wells with an air rig if you don't have fresh or saltwater uphole. It was so simple that I showed the idea to another geologist. He went and got bonded as an operator (the Operator is the person or company which handles the income and work). We managed to lease up a huge area for really cheap.

Anyway, we drilled our first four with just us two and two other geologists. I paid my own money. We could drill them very cheaply if we did everything ourselves, including ditching a gas gathering system with miles of low pressure 2" poly and a number of meters which we bought used and refurbished.

We would drill 3 wells at a time every couple of months, and all of my income went straight back into the ground.

So in that sense, it was me who was paying me. Most of my income comes from small working interest or royalty interests from the production that I've found.

Right now I have been doing a contract job for a very small company in Tulsa. You have never heard of them, and I am in a confidentiality agreement anyway.

Before that, I did a 1 year contract for Chesapeake Energy, helping them with western Kansas stratigraphy from a position in New Ventures. That was the only real job that I've ever had. It was a lot of fun, and paid more than I dare say.

I basically find a prospect and then sell it to another company. I take a cash payment along with a small royalty interest. I quit participating as a working interest partner after we lost a 1.5 million dollar directional tool as well as a full drillstring in a well. What would have cost me 45 grand ended up costing me over 70 grand. That one nearly took me out, so I'm not as ballsy as I used to be.

I still make a couple of hundred bucks per month from my very first well. We call that "mailbox money." As you age as a geologist, you collect a number of small interests in wells. You make that money even if you don't lift a finger. I'm hoping to take off and solo circumnavigate the world in the next two years.

I don't make any money if I don't find anything. I find wealth. That is pretty cool. The area where I drill is all crops. I have never had to bulldoze down a tree when drilling a well. There are some things that I will not do.

BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Dec 29, 2013 - 11:14pm PT
See? Nobody is commenting on the content of my post. All Chief did was try to attack me. I go out and create wealth. Today's wells can cost 4 million bucks. Even if I drill a dry hole, there are a shitload of people who are working because I had an idea.

I'm not a leech on the federal government.

Doesn't anyone want to talk about the cretaceous hot house event as an example of what may happen today?

Trust me. There is plenty of room for debate.
TLP

climber
Dec 29, 2013 - 11:29pm PT
Base, I'm more wigged about the Eocene. Any enlightenment from the world of geology? Mangrove fossils in Alaska is just too weird. And the land masses were more or less where they are now, so it's not like oceanic circulation would have been as drastically different as in the Cretaceous. If it only took CO2 of 800 or so ppm to result in Eocene climate, wow.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 30, 2013 - 12:01am PT
Base-"trust me there is plenty of room for debate". Yes indeed Base, there certainly is. First off, as fellow entrepenuer I understand quite well the risks and rewards of wealth creation. I also understand the conflict between some of your ideology and your work, but I would imagine you are also frequently disgusted by attacks on your profession by starry eyed, ill informed ,enviro activist wannabe's. Now what came first in the geological past; the temp increase or the CO2 increase? Seems to me that absent major volcanism that other natural mechanisms like orbital eccentricities or prolonged periods of slightly increased, penetrating solar irradiance ( whether from decreased albedo due to less clouds and/or aerosols,or from actual TSI increases)were to blame for temp increase and the consequent CO2 increase. In the quantities present during ancient hothouse events CO2 was a powerful feedback .There is a problem with resolution in this time depth.
Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Dec 30, 2013 - 12:06am PT
Credit: Ralph Eugene Meatyard~ (May 15, 1925 May 7, 1972) was an American photographer, from Normal, Illin
dirtbag

climber
Dec 30, 2013 - 12:25am PT
Chief, what was your rank in the military?

Major F*#ktard, or General Asshole?

BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Dec 30, 2013 - 12:51am PT
Chief has time to go google up CHK, but not enough time to go Google my statements on paleoclimate. This is the perfect example of a mentally inferior person using an ad hominem attack. There is plenty of room to attack my statements on paleoclimate. He is just too lazy to read a little.

I hate being stuck in front of the computer. I'll be up all night meeting a deadline tomorrow morning. You know, work.

Carry on.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
U.N. Ambassador, Crackistan
Dec 30, 2013 - 12:55am PT
You EDH partake in professional position/employed by the Gov't org that maintains the stockpile of the Nations WMD's and then come on here and cry that man kind is trashing the planet with his FF burning vehicles and power plants.

And you spent 24 years trashing the planet and riding around on a nuclear waste dump and you still don't give a sh#t for humanity.

Got it.

DMT
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
U.N. Ambassador, Crackistan
Dec 30, 2013 - 01:15am PT
You've spent years crying over this sh#t dude. Who you trying to kid? You're the world champ of crying over climate change.

DMT
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Dec 30, 2013 - 01:26am PT
You still don't get it, Chief. The truth has nothing to do with me. Or you.

Go buy Carl Sagan's book. At least you will be able to argue in a logical manner.

BTW, I was never an employee of CHK. I was a contractor. That is an important legal distinction. Great place. I loved it. I was surrounded by smart people who enjoyed their work.

I have to go, but before I leave you to your loneliness,

Snap to and go salute a junior officer. Hit the deck and give him 50. You had a button that wasn't shiny.

OK. Let's see if he goes postal on us.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
U.N. Ambassador, Crackistan
Dec 30, 2013 - 01:28am PT
I have... did?



Really?



Ah, where Dingus?


Pulling more of that shet outta your ass I see.....



The only thing I been crying about is the hypocrisy of "champ" dudes as yourself crying the end of world due to all this eco-destruction. All the while in reality being as bad if not the worse contributors to the shetfest to whine about on threads such as this one...


How much more pristine wilderness you tear up this weekend DMT with that V-8 4X4 Sportsmobile of yours.

Got it.

Nope no crying up there.

And me crying 'end of world?' Seriously? ME???

Lol.

Nice.

DMT
moosedrool

climber
Stair climber, lost, far away from Poland
Dec 30, 2013 - 01:43am PT
Where is the snow doods???

I WANT SNOW! NOW!!!
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
U.N. Ambassador, Crackistan
Dec 30, 2013 - 01:44am PT
Read my initial posts to this thread.

I only post here these days to mock your fluffers.

DMT
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Dec 30, 2013 - 06:20am PT
Chief,

You lost. You just don't realize it. The symptom is your desperate personal attacks while avoiding actual science. I posted a long discussion of the Cretaceous event and its similarities with what is happening now. You haven't addressed a single word of it. I suppose it is because you can't.

I don't know why Ed bothers. I'm done.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
U.N. Ambassador, Crackistan
Dec 30, 2013 - 09:25am PT
The thing is, base? If you looked at my own initial response to kman's opening posts, I voiced an oft heard skepticism of 'what is it we can actually do?' to address climate change. Step 3 in the Chief's 3-step shuffle.

You were there too on the first page, 21000+ posts and 4-years ago....

I mean with India, China, USA, et al burning coal etc. really what effect can we have?

dirtbag responded very quickly with 'look there are things we know we can do...' and the thread evolved from there.

I don't worry about the chief's "Al Gore Gambit" ie attack the person, attack the mouth piece for defects of the lip, as it were, never mind the science.

In the course of this thread, to which I have come and gone a couple of times, I learned to separate the science from the politics. I learned here and elsewhere (imagine that) just how large a body of science backs the ideas of human caused climate change.

Now that science is not calling for any specific action such as banning diesel engines or coming up with carbon credit forests. Those are political solutions, and not good ones.

And I see how the deniers attempts to undermine the science get mocked. Their citations of past heretics suffering persecution as examples of how the body of modern science mocks them, are, well, apt at times it seems. And yet when examined, one at a time, we see very quickly that their claims of persecution are really discontent at having their so-called science dismissed and very detailed point by point ways. Ego then gets all up init.

Anyway, for me, non-scientist lap dog of technology, what I have learned from this thread is that even repeated attempts to find worthy denier science fall flat on their faces. In this rick sumner has served a valuable roll - that thorny crown wrapped around the head of the truth. He looks and looks for rebuttal evidence and just cannot come up with any.

In that sense he offers a consistent foil that never seems to cut even the slightest at the body of the science involved. Its funny, in a way, to see him take mighty ax swings at it only to have his own ax broken and dulled.

Those of you scientists that have contributed, I know it was done not necessarily to establish a complete foundation for the layperson; its not Climate Change 101. I think the individual contributions have been added to demonstrate that the, oh the Fox News perspective, is a cynical lie, at best.

At best, climate denier claims of valid science backing their denier claims are cynical lies, AT BEST.

At best the chief, your best arguments are backed by cynical lies.

So base, I know the endless insults and rants of mongol warriors and the death of all humanity and mother earth humming a merciless tune as she goes about her business of earthing is wearing. So if you leave the thread know that you've contributed to at least one lap dog's training and perspective.

And yes I drive a v-8 diesel van that gets modestly poor mileage. I fly for my living, in part. I partake in the global economy, even worse. As odd as this may seem I don't wrap personal actions, mine, yours, the chief's, rick sumner's, Hartouni's, Chiloe's or anyone else's, into the science. The science IS there for anyone to examine.

I know a core precept of the chief's arguments remains true - the spice must flow. I need it and so too do we all. The spice WILL flow and it will flow so long as it remains the cheapest large scale energy source.

Finding ways to mitigate the usage of coal and figuring new energy sources to replace oil, seems to be the most wise use of our mitigation efforts, politically.

DMT
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
U.N. Ambassador, Crackistan
Dec 30, 2013 - 10:22am PT
He provides a good window into the Duck Nation mindset.

DMT
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Dec 30, 2013 - 10:37am PT
You could take Bruce's last post and substitute his name for the Chief's and you would have the truth. As DMT points out, the science is their for all to see. It is not pointing towards a 2 to 4.5 degree ECS for a doubling of CO2, but rather some value likey in the range of .2 to 1.3. I get the Chief's frustration with people that just cannot accept reality because of lack of humility or inability to free themselves of brainwashing.

Here again is the words of a man with vast experience in climate science, a man that due to a short life horizon has little to gain or lose in this debate.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/10/on-the-futility-of-long-range-numerical-climate-prediction/
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Dec 30, 2013 - 11:04am PT
even repeated attempts to find worthy denier science fall flat on their faces
DMT nails it
Messages 12401 - 12420 of total 21618 in this topic << First  |  < Previous  |  Show All  |  Next >  |  Last >>
Return to Forum List
 
Our Guidebooks
Check 'em out!
SuperTopo Guidebooks


Try a free sample topo!

 
SuperTopo on the Web

Review Categories
Recent Trip Report and Articles
Recent Route Beta
Recent Gear Reviews