Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jan 27, 2014 - 12:05am PT
CO2 and natural factors, Chief. Duh!

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/early-20th-century-global-warming
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/early-20th-century-global-warming
Credit: monolith
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jan 27, 2014 - 12:17am PT
Sorry, Chief, you have poor reading comprehension. Human emitted GHG gasses are included in that model, so they did play a role.

BTW, if you hadn't figured it out Chief, most climate scientists agree that natural forcing and internal variability dominated the early 20th century, but human activity did play a role.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jan 27, 2014 - 12:24am PT
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2000JD000028/abstract


Our analysis suggests that the early twentieth century warming can best be explained by a combination of warming due to increases in greenhouse gases and natural forcing, some cooling due to other anthropogenic forcings, and a substantial, but not implausible, contribution from internal variability.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 27, 2014 - 01:26am PT
Damn that Chief must be a hell of a climber. Even Bruce says 5.12 was just like 5.2 to him. The amazing thing is that he is even better Eco Freak ass kicker.

Anyway getting back to that transition into regional forecasting-WTF, why didn't the industry give us a heads up on this west coast drought?

I have a question for you CAGW geniuses. What conditions of a cool phase PDO causes the sustained high pressure ridge in the eastern pacific off our west coast and how in the hell will CO2 be twisted into causation?
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Jan 27, 2014 - 10:33am PT
Stephen Hawking admits the biggest blunder of his scientific career - early belief that everything swallowed up by a black hole must be lost forever
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/stephen-hawking-admits-the-biggest-blunder-of-his-scientific-career--early-belief-that-everything-swallowed-up-by-a-black-hole-must-be-lost-forever-8568418.html

Anyone who thinks a tiny modification in the definition of a black hole means they don't exist is demonstrating that they are a math and science moron.

Bachmann is a moron.
George W Bush is a moron.

Why do so many Americans look up to morons?
Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Jan 27, 2014 - 11:04am PT
The amazing thing is that he is even better Eco Freak ass kicker.
Credit: Wade Icey
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 27, 2014 - 11:35am PT
“Fortunately for me, I did not take any science classes in college,”


Ho man ...


I wonder if Bachmann ever took a pill from a pharmacy. If so, she trusted her life to a scientist.
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Jan 27, 2014 - 11:39am PT
“Fortunately for me, I did not take any science classes in college,”

You do all realize that the "article" is a spoof/satire/made-up-bullsh#t?
And you're pretending it's real?
Who exactly are the morons again?
dirtbag

climber
Jan 27, 2014 - 12:52pm PT
Fortmental I have Dixie Sketch at #3.
crunch

Social climber
CO
Jan 27, 2014 - 02:10pm PT
sketch wrote:
Well looky here.

Bitch 1 and Bitch 2 just showed up.

Howdy girls.

I've been climbing 30 years, sketch. In that time I've seen and heard my share of sexist putdowns masquerading as humor. It's not funny. It wasn't funny 30 years ago. It isn't now.

How did it go, last time you tried to free the Nose of El Cap?

I'm sorry you feel so frightened that you never have the confidence to actually say anything, to contribute anything, to speak from the heart.

I hope you do better in real life.
dirtbag

climber
Jan 27, 2014 - 02:10pm PT
Well looky here.

Bitch 1 and Bitch 2 just showed up.

Howdy girls.


Hey, it's not our fault you're a fooking idiot.
crunch

Social climber
CO
Jan 27, 2014 - 02:16pm PT
On a more positive note, here's a fascinating article about scientists modeling future volcanic "super" eruptions and the potential effect of such eruptions on climate.

http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/jan/06/geologists-trigger-super-eruptions-volcanic

So, my question, to sketch, The Chief, rick sumner, is whether these volcano scientists are part of the same vast climate/doomsaying/moneygrabbing conspiracy as the climate modeling scientists?

Or is research on future behavior of volcanoes OK because volcanoes are a "natural" forcing effect?

Norton

Social climber
the Wastelands
Jan 27, 2014 - 02:20pm PT


now THAT was a thing of beauty

crunch

Social climber
CO
Jan 27, 2014 - 02:47pm PT
Funny how you didn't take exception to the preceding posts.

I was out of town, climbing over the weekend.

Hope you got some climbing in, too.
dirtbag

climber
Jan 27, 2014 - 03:41pm PT
Lo and behold, it's Chief Motor Mouth, AKA, #1.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 27, 2014 - 04:10pm PT
The recent paper by Cowtan and Way (2013), Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends, advanced research on global temperature trends by demonstrating (and reducing) a bias in existing temperature indexes.
Incomplete global coverage is a potential source of bias in global temperature reconstructions if the unsampled regions are not uniformly distributed over the planet's surface. The widely used HadCRUT4 dataset covers on average about 84% of the globe over recent decades, with the unsampled regions being concentrated at the poles and over Africa. Three existing reconstructions with near-global coverage are examined, each suggesting that HadCRUT4 is subject to bias due to its treatment of unobserved regions.

Two alternative approaches for reconstructing global temperatures are explored, one based on an optimal interpolation algorithm and the other a hybrid method incorporating additional information from the satellite temperature record. The methods are validated on the basis of their skill at reconstructing omitted sets of observations. Both methods provide superior results than excluding the unsampled regions, with the hybrid method showing particular skill around the regions where no observations are available.

Temperature trends are compared for the hybrid global temperature reconstruction and the raw HadCRUT4 data. The widely quoted trend since 1997 in the hybrid global reconstruction is two and a half times greater than the corresponding trend in the coverage-biased HadCRUT4 data. Coverage bias causes a cool bias in recent temperatures relative to the late 1990s which increases from around 1998 to the present. Trends starting in 1997 or 1998 are particularly biased with respect to the global trend. The issue is exacerbated by the strong El Niño event of 1997-1998, which also tends to suppress trends starting during those years.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 27, 2014 - 04:16pm PT
Following up on their paper, Cowtan & Way have updated and published their new index using data through December 2013. I thought it would be interesting to compare these new data with the NOAA/NCDC temperature index we have often seen graphed here. To make the two series somewhat more comparable I first re-centered the NOAA data by subtracting monthly means for 1961-1990. Over 1880-2013 (the full run of the NOAA series, although Cowtan & Way go back to 1850), the two look very similar. Their correlation is r = +.97.

Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 27, 2014 - 04:21pm PT
20th century warming accelerated in about 1975, and satellite data (UAH and RSS time series) start with 1979, so we often look at this more recent period. Here are NOAA and Cowtan & Way anomalies since 1975. Over this period trends for CW13 are a bit steeper than NOAA (+.18/decade vs. +.16/decade):

Wade Icey

Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
Jan 27, 2014 - 04:24pm PT
Let's not forget the Chefs substantial contributions, i.e.


they ALL repeatedly claim this has absolutely nothing to do with their extremist political ideological standing.
HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

Whhooooooooooooooa!
HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.

HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA! It is COOLING..

OK... so it's warming.

HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA! It is COOLING..

OK... so it's warming.

HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA! It is COOLING..

OK... so it's warming.

HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA! It is COOLING..

OK... so it's warming.

HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA! It is COOLING..

OK... so it's warming.

HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA! It is COOLING..

OK... so it's warming.

HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA! It is COOLING..

OK... so it's warming.

HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA! It is COOLING..

OK... so it's warming.

A 1 million year old piece of petrified rat shet could have figured that out.

Ah, like you all redundantly proclaim when all the record low temps and snow stats are posted....HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

Come to think of it, was it not a bunch of scientist and engineers that got us into this mess in the first place?
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 27, 2014 - 04:28pm PT
Looking at the 1975-2013 graph above you'll notice the two series start to diverge more since about 1999. That coincides with the period when Arctic warming steepened, but Arctic warming is poorly represented in the NOAA and HadCRUT data (a big part of the "coverage bias" CW13 write about).

So here is what it looks like if we restrict analysis just to the past 15 years, 1999-2013. Over this period the CW13 trend (+.13/decade) is almost twice that of NOAA (+.07/decade).

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