Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Sep 15, 2013 - 09:24pm PT
Annnnd rebounded significantly in one year...
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 15, 2013 - 09:28pm PT
Here is the history of the past 120 something years of 'Flash Flood" induced mass flooding in the "Front Range".

This is absolutely NOTHING NEW. Fact is, this current flood incident is no where near as bad as what Boulder and the ENTIRE FRONT RANGE area has experienced in the past.

Don't these people get it??

http://www.floodsafety.com/colorado/flood_events/index.htm

1896


1938

http://bcn.boulder.co.us/basin/history/1938flood.html



This has absolutely NOTHING to do with GCC or MMGW. Nothing.
Norton

Social climber
the Wastelands
Sep 15, 2013 - 09:36pm PT
^^^^

you lie!
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Sep 15, 2013 - 09:51pm PT
Great post ED.


http://www.dailycamera.com/news/boulder/ci_24075101/boulder-flood-meteorologists-say-4-


note to the Chief. They use the word EVER. Such alarmists.

Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Sep 15, 2013 - 09:53pm PT
It WILL happen quickly in geologic time terms.

Base, I was talking with my father, also a geologist, about climate change last week. His view is that the geologic record suggests medium-term consequences of the GHG buildup are likely to be much more severe than most atmospheric scientist envision.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Sep 15, 2013 - 09:56pm PT
Yes Ed and How many sq miles did the arctic sea ice increase in just one year? It went higher than the previous three actually. Pretty good recovery in a year wouldnt you think?
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 15, 2013 - 09:59pm PT
This is NOT the first time nor is it going to be the last time this type event occurs along that entire region. To even conclude that it won't and live in complete denial of many prior flash flood events, is indeed shear stupidity at best.

Fact is, many residences were built in the last 10-20 years along and even ON known flash flood river beds and canyons.

Who in gods name allowed and permitted that to happen.

Denial of weather history and disaster flood occurrences is not an excuse to sing on and state this is all due to MMGW.

But it will be used as such and the ignorant sheep will herd along on it. Running to feeding troughs of propaganda.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 15, 2013 - 10:02pm PT
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 15, 2013 - 10:04pm PT
CHILOE
consequences of the GHG buildup are likely to be much more severe than most atmospheric scientist envision.

So far, nothing of sorts has yet to materialize. Nothing.

Seven years ago you all predicted that the Arctic was going to ICE FREE this year.

Hmmmmmm.

Did not happen Chiloe. Not even close.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Sep 15, 2013 - 10:05pm PT
Well Larry, isn't there some satellite data from the early to mid 70's that shows a marked rise in extent, and presumably volume, up to the "high peak" of '79 that your graph conveniently starts from? Isn't there also extensive historical accounts of many ebbs and flows in Arctic sea ice extent.









Also I find this "ice volume" argument a little disingenuous since we just finished the ice melt season, of course the depth is now low. Let's see what the satellite sees after the coming freeze season. Finally, do they measure the ice thickness with a gravitometer or what instrument, and how has been it calibrated with the one it succeeds and the other nations satellites?


I guess Ed is a bit behind the times seeing as he is developing secret new climbing areas and all. Ed, it went from catastrophic global warming to catastrophic global climate change and is now trending towards catastrophic global ocean acidification, by some indications anyway .











wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Sep 15, 2013 - 10:11pm PT
A lot of people there are in "grandfathered " parcels along that creek[Boulder]. It has some to do with why they were able to build on flood plains also.

I live [right now] on a creek from a Finger lake here,if we get 10 inches of rain ,we are fffed. None of us are built near the 100 year flood elevation.

But i do not know why i even contend.This is all usual and its happened before.right,right.


monolith....nice

TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Sep 15, 2013 - 10:22pm PT
http://www.thepiratescove.us/2013/09/15/if-all-you-see-891/
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Sep 15, 2013 - 10:26pm PT
Well Larry, isn't there some satellite data from the early to mid 70's that shows a marked rise in extent, and presumably volume, up to the "high peak" of '79 that your graph conveniently starts from?

Well Rick, there isn't. Most of the satellite series begin in late 1978 or 1979 (I like how you snuck a conspiracy theory in there!), but a few reconstructions go back to 1972. Here's the University of Bremen sea ice extent series up through 2012:



I'm not sure if their newer data are harmonized with the old series. I got similar results by statistically combining several NSIDC data sets, and this version has the advantage that I can update it using the same rules this year:



Isn't there also extensive historical accounts of many ebbs and flows in Arctic sea ice extent.

Yes, historical accounts and a fair amount of research, based on data ranging from physical and biological proxy reconstructions to historical shipping records and Cold War submarine data. Many good studies using these resources have come out in the past few years.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 15, 2013 - 10:36pm PT
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Sep 15, 2013 - 10:37pm PT
Your last graph shows a relatively flat plateau up till '90, Larry. The Twenty two years remaining is short of the 30 years commonly described as the minimum separation between just weather and climate. Now where do you think that ice thickness will be next spring-significantly towards multi year ice or what?
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 15, 2013 - 10:49pm PT
Larry,

Can you please show "official" readings from the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries when there are in fact recorded seaman accounts of Bearing Sea through to deep into the Beaufort Sea and over deep into the Barents Sea, of navigable open waters that were previously not due to frozen ocean waters.



Amazing how just this type Navigational Maps 1790 era, were completed if the seas were frozen.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/60/Map_of_the_Arctic%2C_1780s_-_B%26W.jpeg

Early cartographers were unsure whether to draw the region around the North Pole as land (as in Johannes Ruysch's map of 1507, or Gerardus Mercator's map of 1595) or water (as with Martin Waldseemüller's world map of 1507). The fervent desire of European merchants for a northern passage to "Cathay" (China) caused water to win out, and by 1723 mapmakers such as Johann Homann featured an extensive "Oceanus Septentrionalis" at the northern edge of their charts.

The few expeditions to penetrate much beyond the Arctic Circle in this era added only small islands, such as Novaya Zemlya (11th century) and Spitsbergen (1596), though since these were often surrounded by pack-ice, their northern limits were not so clear. The makers of navigational charts, more conservative than some of the more fanciful cartographers, tended to leave the region blank, with only fragments of known coastline sketched in.

This lack of knowledge of what lay north of the shifting barrier of ice gave rise to a number of conjectures. In England and other European nations, the myth of an "Open Polar Sea" was persistent. John Barrow, longtime Second Secretary of the British Admiralty, promoted exploration of the region from 1818 to 1845 in search of this.

In the United States in the 1850s and 1860s, the explorers Elisha Kane and Isaac Israel Hayes both claimed to have seen part of this elusive body of water. Even quite late in the century, the eminent authority Matthew Fontaine Maury included a description of the Open Polar Sea in his textbook The Physical Geography of the Sea (1883).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_Ocean


Many more "recorded" seaman accounts that date back to 800 through the late 1000 century by Viking Seaman.

But we do not see any of those "historical" records thrown into the mix. Just those of the past 75 or so years.

WHY????
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Sep 15, 2013 - 10:52pm PT
Your last graph shows a relatively flat plateau up till '90, Larry. The Twenty two years remaining is short of the 30 years commonly described as the minimum separation between just weather and climate.

You're finding ways to squint at the data. August 31 PIOMAS declines an average of 330 km^3/year over 1979-2013. If we cherry-pick 1979-1990 because that looks "relatively flat" to you, the trend is still declining but just by 76 km^3/year. And then the flip side of your cherry-pick, 1991-2013 trend is going down by 468 km^3/year. The latter is highly significant, but dividing up the data and then saying the pieces are too small for conclusions makes no sense to begin with.

Now where do you think that ice thickness will be next spring-significantly towards multi year ice or what?

By definition, whatever ice survives a few summers is multi-year ice.

For simplicity I've been referring just to linear trends here, but IMO a nonlinear S-curve (Gompertz) gives a better fit, among other things because it well describes the observed initial slow decline then steepening fall, followed by a slower, hypothetically asymptotic approach to zero.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 15, 2013 - 10:58pm PT
Pretty amazing Larry how you and the others insist on using short time frame data.

Nice illusion.

The shorter the 'observed" time period, the steeper the plot.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Sep 15, 2013 - 11:04pm PT
And, so far this year, don't we have a steep incline up out of the low of 2012? I wonder how many times in the pre satellite era that the sea ice extent and thickness rivaled that of the last decade. Let's take a look below at 1958 Larry. Perhaps 1958 was at the bottom of another steep decline.

http://www.ihatethemedia.com/photo-north-pole-submarine
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Sep 15, 2013 - 11:08pm PT
wow.
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