Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Sep 15, 2013 - 11:08pm PT
wow.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 15, 2013 - 11:12pm PT
Blow after blow.

More will come in the next couple of weeks as the AR5 is released.

Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years/Uncertainty analysis in climate change assessments.
Richard W. Katz, Peter F. Craigmile, Peter Guttorp, Murali Haran, Bruno Sansó and Michael L. Stein
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 3 | SEPTEMBER 2013 | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange



Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Sep 15, 2013 - 11:19pm PT
Here's a brief review I wrote last year, placing satellite-era Arctic ice observations in the context of recent longer-term studies:

Although daily satellite observations go back only to the 1970s, declassified Cold War submarine observations show that Arctic ice has been declining since the 1950s, so the remaining cover increasingly consists of thinner seasonal ice (Kwok and Rothrock 2009). Historical records indicate that the seasonal ice zone, an area of northern seas that is ice-covered in winter but not in late summer, has been expanding gradually since 1870, and more rapidly in the past three decades (Kinnard et al. 2008). Proxy evidence suggests that the recent declines in Arctic sea ice extent and volume are unprecedented over the past 1,450 years (Kinnard et al. 2011) if not more (Polyak et al. 2010), as is the intrusion of warmer Atlantic waters into the Arctic Ocean (Spielhagen et al. 2011). In the past few decades, shelves of glacial ice more than 3,000 years old have broken apart due to warming in the Canadian Arctic (England et al. 2008). Thus, a broad range of indicators at decadal to millennial time scales confirm the exceptional nature of ice reductions that have recently been observed in the Arctic.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 15, 2013 - 11:26pm PT


The 'skeptics' claim this is a pic of the USS Skate at the North Pole in 1958.

Unfortunately for them, the Skate never surfaced at the North Pole in 1958.

There are pics of submarines at the north pole, but they show a fair amount of ice. They like the Skate pic because it shows very little ice.

On 30 July, Skate steamed to the Arctic where she operated under the ice for 10 days. During this time, she surfaced nine times through the ice, navigated over 2,400 miles (3,900 km) under it, and on 11 August, 9:47 pm EDT [1] (the week after USS Nautilus) became the second sea ship to reach the North Pole, earning the Navy Unit Commendation award for "... braving the hazards of the polar ice pack...." She did, however, not surface at the North Pole. On 23 August, she steamed into Bergen, Norway. The submarine made port calls in the Netherlands, Belgium, and France before returning to New London on 25 September 1958.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 15, 2013 - 11:27pm PT
Too bad so called "records" DO NOT go back this far. Sure would have been nice to know how much "Volume" there was then. Surely could not have been anything more than what we are experiencing the last 10 or so years.

1944 east-west: This was the third ship crossing of the Northwest Passage, the second east-west crossing and the first to be made in one season (7295 miles in 86 days). Instead of the standard route along the coast he used the Parry Channel and Prince of Wales Strait. Fitted with a more powerful engine, the St. Roch left Halifax on 25 July 1944 and by 20 August was at Beechey Island. Continuing west he reached William Edward Parry's Winter Harbour on Melville Island. As usual for explorers at this place, he tried to enter McClure Strait to the northwest and, as usual, was blocked by ice. Next he turned southwest and passed through the Prince of Wales Strait, apparently the first ship to do so[citation needed]. Passing Walker Bay where he had wintered four years previously on 4 September he reached the Hudson's Bay Company post at Holman Island. Just one day before this post had been supplied by the Fort Ross which had sailed from Halifax and through the Panama Canal and Bering Strait. With about a month left before the ice would probably close in, he hurried west, passed through the Bering Strait and reached Vancouver on 16 October.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Larsen_%28explorer%29

That aint NO frkn Ice Breaker nor submarine either.


How the fk did he do that if the Arctic Sea Ice Volume was more than it has been the last "recorded" 30 something years????

Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Sep 15, 2013 - 11:27pm PT
Mono,,unlike the GW SUB that one prolly doesnt have a screen door..;-)
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Sep 15, 2013 - 11:30pm PT
Riley, two years before you left the Alaskan Arctic started cooling. Nineteen Of the twenty first order weather stations in AK have shown a steady decline averaging 2.4 f since then.

There you go again with the proxy record reconstructions in lieu of observational facts Larry. It cannot be definitively stated that the last decade is unprecedented in the last 1450 years with any degree of certainty. Certainly a steep, rapid decline and then rebound would be difficult if not impossible to detect.

Mono- look at Ed's post then throw away your liberal blog disinformation.

Ed where is your secret crag-east, north, south, how far?
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Sep 15, 2013 - 11:34pm PT
So that shrapnel is in your nugget right?

And notice the, "There you go again " remark.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 15, 2013 - 11:37pm PT
Read the comments from navy personnel, Sumner. It was March, 1959.

USS Skate did indeed surface at the North Pole but not until 17 March 1959. Ice conditions in August 1958 were too heavy at the Pole for the Skate to surface, as they were for the Nautilus some days earlier. The Skate did surface in several other leads and polynya that August, including one near Ice-station Alfa. The above picture may have been from one of those.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Sep 15, 2013 - 11:43pm PT
In 1958 the Nautilus made the first underwater transit of the North Pole (but did not surface). The voyage was almost defeated at the start when they encountered ice 60 feet deep in the Bering Strait, in mid-June. In recent years including this one, that area has been ice-free well before then.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 15, 2013 - 11:44pm PT
Larry CHILOE:
In recent years including this one, that area has been ice-free well before then.

Please do show any kind of record where the NORTH POLE proper was completely free of SEA ICE in the past 10-15 years.

Please.... You can't!

And please do tell us how the hell did Henry Larsen navigate the NWP becoming the first to do so in one season (7295 miles in 86 days) back in 1942 in this thang??
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Sep 15, 2013 - 11:46pm PT
Looks to be as muddled as the ice free pole picture of this summer. Maybe there was two surfacings, one at or near the pole in summer and one at or near the pole in winter to test the icebreaking capability through thin winter ice. At any rate the ice looks to be rather thin for this early date. Ed's first link looked like official naval history.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 15, 2013 - 11:57pm PT
EDH... ^^^^^ And?

NWP entails the "frozen" Arctic Ocean does it not. In order for Larsen to complete his voyage in 86 days, there sure must of been lots of ICE FREE open waters that summer.


ARCTIC COMPLETELY FREE OF SEA ICE BY 2013!!!




OOOOOOOOOPS! Never happened. Hmmmmmmmmm
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 15, 2013 - 11:58pm PT
photo not found
Missing photo ID#321444

USS Skate, at North Pole, March 17, 1959.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 16, 2013 - 12:03am PT
So.... any of you hysterians got photos of the NORTH POLE completely FREE OF SEA ICE in the past 10 years???
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Sep 16, 2013 - 12:04am PT
Who needs the Sierra Club or the BBC's opinion on an ice-free date?

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Sep 16, 2013 - 12:05am PT
I followed one of the links in the comments of the naval history blog and found a news article from time that said there was indeed two surfacings at the pole- first in summer 1958 right behind Nautilus' passage and again in winter 1959. It was Ed's second link which he didn't read with careful enough attention. Even a professor has reading comprehension difficulties at times.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 16, 2013 - 12:08am PT
Ah, NO monoboy. Debunked one of your Climate Science PhD fortune tellers.

The BBC’s 2007 report quoted scientist Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, who based his views on super-computer models and the fact that ‘we use a high-resolution regional model for the Arctic Ocean and sea ice

We speak to Wieslaw Maslowski about his prediction that by the summer of 2013, we will have completely lost ice cover in the Arctic. Dr. Maslowski says that the complete loss of summer ice may actually happen sooner.
http://bze.org.au/media/radio/dr-wieslaw-maslowski-predicted-2013-ice-free-summer-arctic-five-years-ago-now-he-says-ma



Show ICE FREE NORTH POLE photos Mono.





AHAHAHAHA.

You can't cus it never happened!



EDH
The Chief, we went over that upthread

No you did not ED.

No one has spoken of Larsen's 1942 NWP voyage. Not a soul.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Sep 16, 2013 - 12:16am PT
Yes Ed, two polar surfacings, case solved thankyou.
The Chief

climber
From the Land of the Mongols
Sep 16, 2013 - 12:18am PT
Really ED H?
but you didn't debunk him, The Chief, that would require you read what he actually wrote (which I posted up above)...

Dr Maslowski’s predicted it ED H. Even revised his time frame back three years. Plain and simple. Never happened either time. End of the decade nor this year.

Dr Maslowski’s previous model had predicted the Arctic to be seasonally ice-free in the summer by 2013 – an estimate that many experts criticized. Factoring in criticisms he received about the original model, Maslowski and his team came up with a new computer model which is supposed to reproduce real-world couplings (interactions) between the Arctic Ocean, the atmosphere, sea ice and rivers that transport freshwater from land to the ocean. The new model is “very similar to the global climate models” the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) uses in its assessments.

The new model also incorporates new data on the thickness of sea ice – which satellites (such as Cryosat-2) are now able to measure more accurately. This new data was one of the reasons Maslowski and his team moved their estimate for summer sea ice disappearance back a few years.

However other experts still remain skeptical about such an early date for the seasonal disappearance of Arctic sea ice. Dr Walt Weiner from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado, Boulder, believes that other predictions, which put seasonal Arctic sea ice disappearance closer to 2040 or 2050, to be more likely.

Maslowski says he is not trying to be alarmist; he’s merely letting policymakers know that there is a possibility that there may be no sea ice in the Arctic in the summer by the end of the decade.
http://www.sciencepoles.org/news/news_detail/maslowski_and_team_offer_new_estimate_summer_arctic_sea_ice_disappearance/
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