Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Messages 12201 - 12220 of total 28184 in this topic << First  |  < Previous  |  Show All  |  Next >  |  Last >>
wilbeer

Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
Sep 6, 2013 - 07:27am PT
Chef ,I hope you you get up up on the Cumberland Plateau,real nice country.
Skeptimistic

Mountain climber
La Mancha
Sep 6, 2013 - 10:19am PT
when in a weekend mental state

8 more hours and that's how you'll find me!
Elcapinyoazz

Social climber
Joshua Tree
Sep 6, 2013 - 10:25am PT
Jack Daniels bbq's

You got a lot to learn about Kentucky, boy. Try learning the difference between bourbon and sour mash whiskey and where each comes from. JD ain't no Kentucky spirit.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Sep 6, 2013 - 12:22pm PT
Back a ways there was some discussion about ocean heat content, which appears to be where most of the recent GHG warming has gone. The most direct evidence for this comes from the Argo float network (http://www.argo.net/) and other deep-water measurements. Independent support comes from both satellite and tide-gauge measurements that show rising sea levels, resulting partly from melting ice but to a large extent also from thermal expansion as ocean waters warm.

The satellite-based University of Colorado sea level time series (http://sealevel.colorado.edu/), which many scientists regard as definitive, has just been updated through July 2013. Here's what that looks like:



Despite week-to-week variations in this index, the upward trend is striking, and the 2013 mean is the highest so far.
bobinc

Trad climber
Portland, Or
Sep 6, 2013 - 12:24pm PT
Geez. More stata graphics. Are you sure that graph isn't upside-down?
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Sep 6, 2013 - 12:54pm PT
Geez. More stata graphics.

Dig the lowess curve?
Elcapinyoazz

Social climber
Joshua Tree
Sep 6, 2013 - 01:13pm PT
Chiloe,

Just curious why the beginning of that data series has negative numbers? Looks like the first 3 years or so.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Sep 6, 2013 - 01:18pm PT
Good question, the values are anomalies (dMSL) rather than absolute mean sea level (MSL) that would be hard to define. Which means they are calculated as deviations from an arbitrary reference period, apparently the first few years of the series.
bobinc

Trad climber
Portland, Or
Sep 6, 2013 - 01:27pm PT
The Lowess looks good... but definitely the work of an elitist.
Elcapinyoazz

Social climber
Joshua Tree
Sep 6, 2013 - 01:27pm PT
Gotcha, guess I'm more used to seeing a delta symbol in my work. Wasn't sure if it was a truncated version of the series that started some time earlier.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Sep 6, 2013 - 01:36pm PT
EC, the truth is I was too lazy to look up how to place a delta in the graph, so used d as a quick-dirty substitute instead. But since you noticed I just went back and fixed that, so now it has a proper Greek letter.

There's a much longer MSL record based on tide gauges, but the CU series only goes back to Dec 1992. Below is an older graph I did from the tide-gauge data (Church & White). Looks like I smoothed this one with a quadratic instead of lowess.

cheers,
L

Elcapinyoazz

Social climber
Joshua Tree
Sep 6, 2013 - 01:52pm PT
Looks like the smoothed series is going parabolic. Any chance you have a handy CO2 emissions series to overlay? (Yeah, I know asking a question only takes 3 seconds, but doing the work to respond much longer, so no worries if you're busy)
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Sep 6, 2013 - 01:57pm PT
The Keeling CO2 data only go back to the late 1950s, but they have a slightly quadratic look similar to the Church & White sea level -- I think the fit would be pretty good, apart from the noise in both series.
Jon Beck

Trad climber
Oceanside
Sep 6, 2013 - 02:08pm PT
I give little value scientific proclamations of a nation that now stand at 26th of the worlds nation in science and math.

Who would you trust more? A student who scores high on an exam, or a scientist who wins a Nobel prize

Hong Kong (top students in math and science) has only one Nobel winner

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nobel_laureates_by_country
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Sep 6, 2013 - 04:32pm PT
I give little value scientific proclamations of a nation that now stand at 26th of the worlds nation in science and math.


Bro, IPCC ain't just the top climate scientists from the USA..., hence the name "International."

[Bzzzzzt!] Thanks for playing!
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Sep 6, 2013 - 04:35pm PT
The WORST fire seasons on record were, 1883, 1910 1926 in that order, i believe.

Ron, perhaps you can tell me; how big do you think the Rim Fire would be if we used the fire-fighting tactics from any of the "big fire" years you've mentioned?

Come on now, be honest.
Elcapinyoazz

Social climber
Joshua Tree
Sep 6, 2013 - 04:37pm PT
Malcolm Gladwell had an interesting tidbit about the asian advantage in math in some essay or book. It basically came down to the way their language structure treats numbers that make it more logical and easier for kids to grasp.

I can't recall the exact details, but something along the lines of how in english we have the modifier preceding the noun which emphasizes the modifier...green car, vs. say spanish where it's opposite auto verde. In this case, I think it's that they don't have screwy numbers like the eleven, twelve, thirteen, etc, but instead a structure like "ten and one" for eleven, etc.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Sep 6, 2013 - 04:41pm PT
A gem:

On what basis do you conclude that this [AWG] is "the big lie"? My guess is your conclusion is largely based on your political point of view, and has nothing to do with any science that you understand.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Sep 6, 2013 - 05:07pm PT
It is common for people to assume that all science happens in the United States. It does not. We just pay better.
Elcapinyoazz

Social climber
Joshua Tree
Sep 6, 2013 - 05:12pm PT
Ron, I don't know about the rest of the country, but I lived in interior AK during two of the three worst fire seasons on record up there, 2004(1st) and 2005 (3rd).

Given that the interior isn't managed as forest, and never has been, I don't think you can pawn that one off on fuel loads from forest mismangement.
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