Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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raymond phule

climber
Jan 22, 2014 - 01:42pm PT
Interesting plot that the chief has found. The PDO index between 1900 and 2035.

So it is a prediction based on something. The chief usually despise all kind of models and prediction but not in this case it seems.

The really interesting thing though it that the prediction seems to be done by using the data from 45-78 as the prediction of the future. Looks like a kind a novel prediction technique.

This is of course just the usual, the scientist that agree with AGW is always incorrect, there data analysis ("smoothing" etc) always suspect, their models are incorrect if they are not making predictions that are 100% true. The "realist", those that say the things that the chief et all. wants to hear can do whatever they want with the data. Their methods are always correct, interesting etc and their are of course no reason to even try to understand them.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 22, 2014 - 01:56pm PT
Phule, the AGW crowd goes a long way towards invalidating themselves in the eyes of anyone paying attention. Take for example USHCN's v1 which adjusted modern temps up a half a degree c, or v2 which dropped the past temps by a full degree c. It seems the adjustments always go the same way-to make it look as the modern era is unprecedented and almost all the graphs you guys are posting are based on these maladjustments.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
U.N. Ambassador, Crackistan
Jan 22, 2014 - 02:10pm PT
The dueling graphics do nothing for either side of this 'discussion.'

Its the 3-step shuffle and yall are letting one person call the dance.

DMT
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Jan 22, 2014 - 02:11pm PT
The facts are irrelevant.
So Chiloe admits he knows basically nothing about Turney other than that he's decided that he's a "scientist," and so is incapable of being accurately described as an anti-GW "crusader."

Anyone who cares about the "facts" can look at the guy's own website and draw his or her own conclusions.
http://www.christurney.com/

The funny thing is (if there's anything funny after Chiloe relentlessly grinds the humor out), I doubt Turney would object to being described as an anti-GW crusader--he's apparently made it his life's work to both document GW changes and has started a company to do some geoengineering and engage in other for-profit work related to climate change (I can't get the company link to work, so maybe his company is doing as well as the expedition).

Chiloe may well be correct about it being wrong to say that Turney was there to document the decline in sea ice and was there to document the increase or change or something else. Joke still works fine.
raymond phule

climber
Jan 22, 2014 - 02:15pm PT

Phule, the AGW crowd goes a long way towards invalidating themselves in the eyes of anyone paying attention.

How would you know? You obviously cant pay attention because you can't read and understand any of the science involved and thus have no idea who to trust. The only thing you do over and over again is to believe the people that say things that is in agreement with your politics.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 22, 2014 - 02:32pm PT
Phule, it was always political at the top levels, just a means towards an end. I'm sorry you are fixated on projecting the minutia of the micro physical properties of CO2 from the lab into the tremendously complicated dynamics of a real world atmosphere. Compare these numbers Phule, atmospheric percentage of CO2=.ooo4, percentage of variation of TSI over a standard Schwabe cycle= .01, global deviation from mean temperature for Younger Dryas -6c, global mean deviation from mean temp for holocene climate optimum +2-3c, variation of global temps from end of Little ice age to present +.8c. Kind of indicates that natural variation far exceeds the modest temp increase that can be attributed to a trace gas that is 400ppm.
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Jan 22, 2014 - 02:34pm PT
This isn't a discussion by any means.
It's a parade of ignorance & stupidity.
The scientists toss out a few truths just to point out how stupid the deniers are.
raymond phule

climber
Jan 22, 2014 - 02:44pm PT

Kind of indicates that natural variation far exceeds the modest temp increase that can be attributed to a trace gas that is 400ppm.

Not really.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
U.N. Ambassador, Crackistan
Jan 22, 2014 - 02:49pm PT
This isn't a discussion by any means.
It's a parade of ignorance & stupidity.
The scientists toss out a few truths just to point out how stupid the deniers are.

Takes two to tango....

DMT
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 22, 2014 - 02:53pm PT
The dueling graphics do nothing for either side of this 'discussion.'
I get what you mean, might be true within this frequently train-wrecked ST thread.

But there are a couple of other dimensions. IFO learn things by drawing the graphs, as I do from reading new papers. It's partly curiosity (and skepticism) driven, and at the end of the day at least I know more than I did before. Ed has expressed similar motives for the informal research he does here too; probably others share that view.

Also, the graphics don't necessarily stop here. Some that I've drawn originally for ST later end up posted widely on blogs, or in research papers (in several cases after constructive feedback here). Others journeyed the other way round. I've tried out some things on ST before they were published, as well. The longest journey might be one of my graphs that unexpectedly got Borg-assimilated into testimony for Britain's Parliament.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
U.N. Ambassador, Crackistan
Jan 22, 2014 - 02:56pm PT
Well... LARRY....

:D

DMT
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Jan 22, 2014 - 03:01pm PT
Takes two to tango....
Why are you on this thread?
It's like watching the Simpsons, right?

And don't forget
All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.

A question for DMT:
Are you not concerned for the future of your kids?
Cragar

climber
MSLA - MT
Jan 22, 2014 - 03:08pm PT
Interesting plot that the chief has found.

yeah, kinda the problem with a fair number of folks posting here, they find what they believe and are looking for. They don't create and divulge the metadata and methods of the resulting plot, they 'find'/regurgitate stuff in agreement and cannot reproduce these found images they post. Quite hilarious in a not so funny way.

To make a valid argument, y'all gotta create your argument, not find it, unless you can replicate and understand it.

^^just trying to say differently what has been said and subsequently ignored up thread +/- 100's of times.

raymond phule

climber
Jan 22, 2014 - 03:25pm PT
Haha, the stupidity is endless.


Every "Graph" I posted today and yesterday are all collected and recorded DATA/OBSERVATIONS that have actually occurred!

No model or prediction.

http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=970221&msg=2325932#msg2325932

The first graph goes to 2035. Did the author use a time machine when he recorded the data?

monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jan 22, 2014 - 03:26pm PT
Every "Graph" I posted today and yesterday are all collected and recorded DATA/OBSERVATIONS that have actually occurred!

No model or prediction.

LOL, Chief. Look at the dates in the graph you posted.

Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
U.N. Ambassador, Crackistan
Jan 22, 2014 - 03:26pm PT
Why are you on this thread?
It's like watching the Simpsons, right?

I have never watched an episode of the Simpsons, so no, its not like that.

And don't forget
All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.

Well the Magnificent Five don't strike me as evil, sorry.

A question for DMT:
Are you not concerned for the future of your kids?

In the context of this thread? No, I am not that concerned.

DMT
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Jan 22, 2014 - 03:30pm PT
If you will indulge us, DMT, I'd really like to know your thoughts on Climate Change.

raymond phule

climber
Jan 22, 2014 - 03:43pm PT

Let's look at them dates....

You missed to look at the dates for one of your figures...

edit:

Corresponds just perfect with the one above.

Yes, but it still show a prediction into the future.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
U.N. Ambassador, Crackistan
Jan 22, 2014 - 03:47pm PT
My thoughts?

First of all, in regards to human-cause climate change, my opinion of it means nothing. Time alone will resolve the central 'human caused' component. Time will also solve the repercussions of it all.

With regards to the political realm I think the deniers often make a good case of two points:

1. Some of the proponents of the 'have to act now' school are guilty as charged of misinformation, grand standing and dire predictions. Scientists should not take this personally, however. This is not an indictment of the data analysis. It is a recognition that bullshit is not limited to one side of this debate.

2. The oil lifestyle we all enjoy, me and the chief included, will not be fundamentally altered until the cost of oil exceeds some other, cleaner, fuel source.

So yeah I can give you the plucked heart-string note 'of COURSE I am concerned about human caused climate change.' Because of course, I am! But I can also shrug off a lot of the 'must act now' hysteria as political bullshit that does not take into account the reality of a global economy.

Big article in the local rag yesterday about how Chinese coal-burning pollution is contributing to California smog, perfect example actually.

Is the U.S. prepared to say 'no' to coal-produced products from China?

Of course not!

Will all this be dumped at the feet of subsequent generations? Of course it will!

Will my generation leave the planet for the better or for the worse?

Yes. :D

DMT
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Jan 22, 2014 - 03:54pm PT
Thanks DMT.
Your opinion does mean something, because politicians will do nothing until the public demands it.

I was hoping for your opinion of the science, as that is what the deniers are actively trying to discredit. I was also wondering what your impression is of the magnitude of the problem.

I don't pay much attention to the politics of possible solutions, because there won't be much impetus to solve the problem until we all agree that there is a problem.

Time will also solve the repercussions of it all.
Do you mean "time will clarify the repercussions" ?
cause I suspect time will make the repercussions worse, not better.
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