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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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What Nevadans think:
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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and 70% of American adults believe in Etherial Beings.....like angels and fairies
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dirtbag
climber
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I ethereal every morning.
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dirtbag
climber
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Funny, but that's what my parents said about Santa Claus.
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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If you dont believe in spirits, your just to blind to see/feel them..
over and over
you continually demonstrate how immature and naive your brain functions
why don't you tell us again, Ron, how the Newtown school dead child came back to life?
christ
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Don't worry Sketch, TGT, Rong. Chef and Sumpter all have your back.
Yer Bomber Dude.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Perhaps you can quote Fortmental on where he has commented on a the significance of a single year change in ice volume?
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Cragar
climber
MSLA - MT
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Volume or area? You keep saying volume so I am wondering if you took area into consideration with your calculations and what the difference between the two means to you, in regards to the Antarctic ice cap. Oh, there is also a continent down there, under a portion of the ice.....
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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I wonder what caused that massive, instantaneous jump in temps at the start of the 'pause', other than cherry picking?
Why does the long term temp trend actually increase when the 'pause' is included?
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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So could you Ed, so could all the warmists that nature is proving wrong. Instead the lead wackos circle the wagons and invent ever more fantastic explanations for the failure of their theories of doom. You then have brainwashed idiots like Bruce trying to destroy anyone that speaks truth to power. Hey Bruce, how about meeting face to face to spew this crap you deal out on the internet?
Anyway, off for another days explorations in the nearby great basin, will check in this evening.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Has anyone else actually read the Curry 2014 letter in Nature Geoscience that, I think, kicked off some of this discussion a few pages back? The Curry paper is surprisingly empty -- there's no beef. No new data, no original analysis, no attempt to synthesize, review or critique the literature or current thinking. It's short, less than a page and a half including a color photo of the Arctic. The content is just her political meme "Uncertainty ... therefore do nothing!" She declares this without demonstrating it with respect to Cowtan & Way (2013), and skips over all the other relevant studies.
A small thing, but symptomatic: her second sentence reads,
For example, according to the UK Met Office record of global mean surface temperatures HadCRUT4 (ref. 1), there has been no statistically significant warming trend2 since 1998. True enough, that is what the cited study said, based on data through 2012. Is it still true today? I'm a skeptic, so I checked, and it's not. Regressing monthly HadCRUT4 temperatures on time from 1998 through 2013 does yield a statistically significant positive trend.
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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I agree with Ed on one point:
I don't really like the word "hiatus" to describe the fact that land temps stopped rising 15 years or so ago either, but for rather different reasons.
"Hiatus" connotes a pause or a gap--that is, using that word implies that it will start warming again.
While that's possible I suppose, we don't really know that and shouldn't necessarily assume it, especially since the warmists had no idea that it would stop warming before it stopped warming. Why should we have any confidence in their predictions now, when they haven't done anything to deserve it?
The Huff Post blog linked to earlier is interesting, especially as it was written by a warmist "fellow traveler"--here's a part I like:
What's going on here? Natural variations, the sun, volcanoes or a combination of all three? The list of possible causes for the hiatus, as discussed in Box 9.2 of the recently released IPCC Working Group I (page 26), reads somewhat like scientists grasping at straws:
• Sun
• Volcanoes
• Natural variability
• Heat going into the deep ocean
• Not enough temperature sensors in the Arctic
• Decreased stratospheric water vapor
• Aerosols
From a climate communications perspective, this does not look good. Why aren't scientists doing a better job at talking about their lack of understanding about this problem? And why isn't the media doing a better job covering it? A quick Google search of "global warming hiatus" reveals mainly strident articles either on the one side attempting to expose the "global warming hoax" (no real science there), or on the other side, attempting to debunking the "myth" of a pause at all. (It's not a myth -- according to estimates of global temperatures, temperatures have increased only 0.04 degrees Celsius per decade over this time period, which really isn't statistically significant from zero.)
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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For Sketch as well:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_significance
Both Curry and Chiloe are using the term 'statistical significance' in the statistical science sense.
Doesn't matter what the trend is, is it 'statistically significant', that is, p-value < .05? Up to 2012, it was not. Up to now, it is.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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What's the p-value for your trend line?
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Cragar
climber
MSLA - MT
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Here's what I got:
How did you do it? What software did you use? Since there are only 2 samples, can you list them?
Are you sure it is what YOU got?
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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. regress hadcrut4 year if year>1997
Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 192
-------------+------------------------------ F( 1, 190) = 5.67
Model | .077316937 1 .077316937 Prob > F = 0.0182
Residual | 2.58911306 190 .013626911 R-squared = 0.0290
-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.0239
Total | 2.66643 191 .013960366 Root MSE = .11673
-------------------------------------------------------------------
hadcrut4 | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+-----------------------------------------------------
year | .0043532 .0018275 2.38 0.018 .0007483 .0079581
_cons | -8.273992 3.665156 -2.26 0.025 -15.50361 -1.044369
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Cragar
climber
MSLA - MT
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not DeltaDenier 10^25pointZero?
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SuperTopo on the Web
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Let us know!