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7SacredPools
Trad climber
Ontario, Canada
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I guess, but then here are those that extrapolate from an experience like that and think they were "saved" because they're special, or for a higher purpose. How come they never start an orphanage or something?
Don't tell my mother but I've made a few mistakes that could of got me killed.
No one was looking out for me, it was just dumb luck.
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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If it were a matter of luck I wouldn't be a rock climber. And not being interested in games of chance is also why I'm not an alpine climber.
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Jaybro
Social climber
Wolf City, Wyoming
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Just read through this
Larryhorton. You obviously just don't 'get' Dr Hartouni.
I really agree with Doninis last assessment.
That psycho chicken think was f*#king brilliant.
Gonna go watch them tear down my house, just my luck, gotta run a shuttle.e
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WyoRockMan
climber
Grizzlyville, WY
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EdH wrote:
Unrecognized here are the myriad of times we were unaware that we were in any peril at all, when chance was in play but we did not know. Once again, we say we we're "lucky." Who here that has walked the path along the southeast base of El Capitan didn't feel "lucky" that the wall that fell this past summer didn't fall on them? Somehow we were unaware of the risk. But just look around you in Yosemite Valley, it is filled in by tens of thousands of years of that exact thing happening.
Where does luck spring from? where does it go?
The more one identifies the otherwise unrecognized events, the luckier one would perceive themselves to be. Ex. I didn’t get struck by an asteroid, mauled by a bear, or have a tree branch fall on me today. Therefore, I’m very lucky. Typically(?) people go through life not acknowledging how infinitely full of good luck they are. The subject only comes up when one of the infinite vectors impacting our lives manifests itself into an actionable event. Sometimes we care enough to do a root cause analysis, but mostly we just chalk it up to "luck". One way or the other.
Luck doesn't go anywhere. DMT's "luck is an outcome" would make it non-transferable.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Typically(?) people go through life not acknowledging how infinitely full of good luck they are.
I think this is better put as the improbability of the life that they have lead.
Interestingly, if you believe in "luck" as dolled out by some agent(s) then you can count yourself as a part of the "in crowd," those on the outs are the unlucky ones. This somehow conveys "inalienable" privileges on the lucky.
Acknowledging one's good luck, and recognizing that "bad luck" isn't necessarily a sign of divine displeasure, or personal inadequacy, could change the way we view our world, and our society.
Alas, the superstitions we have inherited often conspire against a more balanced concept.
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hooblie
climber
from out where the anecdotes roam
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luck is invisible though it casts a shadow we call a hunch. inference reliability is the issue
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WBraun
climber
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How is it invisible when you can see its direct cause and effects ....
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hooblie
climber
from out where the anecdotes roam
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^^^ it takes a gross materialist ...
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OnsightOrGoHome
Trad climber
Fair Oaks
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Cause and effect explain the physical manifestation of results. Choices are made prior to the manifestation of the result, based on one's expected results. Maybe luck is in the decision process, not the result. If one knew what the result was to be, we would always make choices resulting in the winning side.
But what explains "when you roll the dice and won [or lost] when the odds suggested that you were likely not to have"? Even after accounting for knowledge, preparation, and skills, the chances of success/failure in our choices are never 100%, yet a result with only 5% chance of occurring does occur 5% of the time, sometimes with dire consequences, and we rarely would hesitate with 95% chance of success (we often even accept 50/50 odds). With all input factors applied equally, why are some of us in the 95% group, and others in the 5% group?
Per Merriam-Webster, Fate: the will or principle or determining cause by which things in general are believed to come to be as they are or events to happen as they do. Per Oxford, Fate: the development of events outside a person's control, as regarded as predetermined by a supernatural power.
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WBraun
climber
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Choices are made prior to the manifestation of the result.
Nope .... the result already manifested itself as birth in a gross physical material body
of which you received from your previous life according to the consciousness you developed back then.
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OnsightOrGoHome
Trad climber
Fair Oaks
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So my choices today mean nothing as my fate was sealed by my choices made in my previous life, which were sealed in my life prior to my last life, and so forth? It seems that the development of one's consciousness is affected by the choices we make today (resulting in unique experiences that only that specific choice would result in).
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WBraun
climber
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No
You can make a choice of staying in your material condition self or coming to your true self, ... free from all karmic reactions.
That is the real climb, not this illusionary dream of materialism.
We have that independent free will to choose .....
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Trump
climber
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In the reference class of human brains, I’m pretty certain that mine doesn’t work right.
I don’t really understand how we can believe in the improbability of the lives that we’re leading or have led. What other options are there, that we’re aware of, that we have evidence of existing outside of our heads?
We can come up in our heads with other scenarios and a billion things that had to go “right” - a billion ways that I had to be “lucky” in order to live this life. But what’s the probability that those things would happen? Seems to me like 0. What’s the probability that I would have and will live this life that I’m living? Seems to me like 1.
We can construct a billion scenarios that didn’t happen and theorize that well they could have happened!
But they didn’t.
And how do we explain that? We say (believe) that the reason that they happened were random chance - something that is unpredictable no matter how much information we have - rather than them being do to specific reasons that we just don’t understand. We say that they belong to a reference class of instances in which it’s impossible to tell the difference between the instances, rather than just that we don’t have the information/ability that would allow us to tell the differences.
And we might just be lucky to have a self-confirming belief in our awesome free will, a belief that also maybe coincidentally allows us to take the best advantage of our biggest evolutionary advantage - the ability to allow our behaviors to be guided by our beliefs. And we might just be lucky that sex feels so good.
But what’s the probability that water would boil at 212F? 1 in a million? 1 in a billion? Or just 1? What’s the probability that humans would evolve after 4 billion years? It happened. It also rained today.
I’m usually more interested in understanding the how/why of what actually happens in reality, than in what we believe could have happened, but didn’t happen. I guess especially with respect to what actually happens about the what/why/how people believe what we believe.
We seem to end up believing stuff like that this life that I’m living is incredibly improbable, when it seems like the probability (or maybe the best we can get - the plausibility) is 1. It happened. It’s happening. And yet here I am believing that it’s incredibly unlikely for reality to exist the way it does, even though reality is right in front of me existing the way it does.
I don’t get it. And I kind of would like to, but in a way that’s actually true, and not just a way that confirms my rightness and specialness for believing it. But it’s hard to tell the difference, without all of the information.
It often seems to me like we misunderstand the way things are (i.e. believe things that aren’t true) in ways that help us change things to be the way we want them to be. But we have to really honestly believe it first, even if it isn’t (yet) true. And that’s just kind of part of the magic of how we work. We don’t have wings to flap, but we do this belief thing instead.
And hey, the way those crazy kids are doing this belief thing nowadays got me elected! What’s the chance of that?!
Best to you all!
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Jaybro
Social climber
Wolf City, Wyoming
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I was lucky to not be in my house today when, This, happened!
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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^^^sad day...
...The Fry is going to be surprised to find it gone...
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Jaybro
Social climber
Wolf City, Wyoming
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Im sure he's taking it in from behind another window. its also raining...
He was seen departing the premises when the machines started, before I got there this morning ( had to drive a shuttle)
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Trump
climber
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“There is no logical material universe rational for how I could have survived this.”
You know it! We take incomplete information and convert it to complete information in our heads. And then, we just believe it. If I can’t see a way, it’s because there’s just no way, it’s not because I can’t see the way. I see everything! Ok, I guess I do have enough information to act according to my beliefs then.
That’s cool. Humans are cool.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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“There is no logical material universe rational for how I could have survived this.”
there is one: you're odds weren't as low as you thought...
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marmoting
Mountain climber
CA
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A theory that has fairly wide acceptance by physicists is that everything that can happen does happen, if not in this reality, then in a parallel one. If you accept this proposition, then you must conclude that the probability is “1” that the life you have led would happen as it has.
The confusion about the probability of your life occurring comes about from thinking about the probability of drawing your life from a basket of all possible realities. In that scenario, the probability of you living the exact life you have led is “0”. In reality, you had no more choice in which life you ended up with than you had choice in being born. Every other possible life you could have led is being led by some other variant of you, and none of them have any choice in the matter either. For every “decision” you’ve ever made, a variant of you has made the opposite “decision,” and lived a different timeline from you as a “result”.
We and all of our variants will live out every one of the possible timelines remaining in our lives. None of us knows what future is assigned to us, but that is the blessing. It allows us the illusion that we have agency to choose our future and to believe we’ll have good luck.
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WBraun
climber
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Karma and luck are NOT the goals of life at all ........
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