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tradmanclimbs
Ice climber
Pomfert VT
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Topic Author's Original Post - Mar 17, 2018 - 04:56pm PT
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To a large degree we make our own luck. Getting chopped by an avalanch in the tetons in July is most likely really bad luck. Getting chopped by an avalanche on big mountains in Alaska in winter is inevitable. Spend enough time in the zone and it will happen. The only part that you can call lucky is if you spend a lot of time in the zone and don't get chopped....
I put up a rock climb a few years ago that I knew was stupid dangerous. It fell down within 8 hours of our 2nd ascent. We were lucky to have gotten away with it. Not getting chopped on that climb was good luck. Had we been chopped it would not have been bad luck. It was a stupidly dangerous place to be and we both knew it. In fact the rockfall happened in exactly the place that I had envisioned it happening the first time I had a close up look at the roof. For the most part we make our own luck. We make the decisions to put ourselfs in dangerous places. We know that some places are far more dangerous than others and when we choose to go there anyways it is not bad luck that kills us.
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WBraun
climber
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Mar 17, 2018 - 05:25pm PT
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Locker is already dead.
Dead zombie, just driving his material body on autopilot, no brain required ......
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two-shoes
Trad climber
Auberry, CA
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Mar 17, 2018 - 06:37pm PT
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It's true what you say, in climbing we do largely make our own luck. Or, then, we can choose not to climb and then get chopped another way, such as a heart attack, cancer, behind the wheel,- you name it.
But, have you considered, in large ways our lives are based on luck.
When I was 4 years of age my mother, who was expecting to give birth any day to her second child, asked me if I was happy to be having a baby brother or sister. I told her I didn't want a baby sister, that I wanted a baby brother. It brought a tear to my dear mother's eye and she asked me, in a very disturbing and somewhat stern voice, "Have you ever thought; how lucky you are to have been born a boy? What if you had been born a girl? How would you like that? And, then she thought and added, "What if you had been born a poor black baby girl, have you ever thought of that?" I didn't know how to take these questions at the time, I felt half proud that I was a boy and yet confused as to her deep questioning. But, I have contemplated on these questions many times since then.
I asked my mother, when she was about 80 years of age, if she remembered asking me these questions. She said, she really couldn't recall asking me but she could imagine having done so. I've come to realize, this is the total luck of the draw that we middle-class, and well to do, all-american white males receive in privilege, having been born into the most rich, and powerful, state in all of history. I know most will not agree with me on this but they haven't had most of their life to chew on it, either.
What ways does serendipity play in our lives and the ways we are able to create it?
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madbolter1
Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
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Mar 17, 2018 - 06:47pm PT
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And just that quickly, it's become a politard thread.
Bye bye now.
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tradmanclimbs
Ice climber
Pomfert VT
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 17, 2018 - 06:49pm PT
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Given the luck to be born into a stable enough environment to be able to afford the luxury of outdoor adventure sports when we engage in those sports we make our own luck. We make the choices that either kill us or let us live. Winter ascents of big mountains in Alaska is a choice to take a very, very high chance of death. Himalayen climbing is also a choice to die. Hanging out sport climbing on the beach in Malorca is the choice to be a fun hog and the risk of death while still present is slight. Climbing fat 4+ to 5+ waterfall ice is dangerous but it is a lot less dangerous than getting on 6 and 7 R/X horror shows. We make the decisions to either solo a 5.7 we have wired or onsight solo a 5.10 That is not luck.
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Jim Clipper
climber
from: forests to tree farms
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Mar 17, 2018 - 07:51pm PT
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Is the duck dying by saying they are zombies and dead? Where is they have goodness, light? (well probably not Locker). Maybe feel it on for a try.
p.s. hope to have the luck to meet the werner some days. Maybe I have, but not the phsysicsal manifestation.
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tradmanclimbs
Ice climber
Pomfert VT
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 18, 2018 - 04:56am PT
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A friend of mine who has done the FA of a 7,000m peak in the himilaya expressed interest in doing one last Himalayan expedition. I flat out said. you have kids now. Obviously its was his choice but I was not shy in my opinion.
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rockermike
Trad climber
Berkeley
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Mar 18, 2018 - 05:23am PT
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Luck is there... even for cautious climbers. But in my experience good decision making plays a larger part in this game.
By the way... being born in the US you already won the lotery whatever your sex or race. Unless you want to take karma into account, in which case maybe not so lucky. :)
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Mar 18, 2018 - 05:45am PT
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Anyone surfing a huge day at Nazaré => luck
Anyone going for the summit solo on K2 in the winter => luck
Alex Honnold free soloing Freerider => not luck
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tradmanclimbs
Ice climber
Pomfert VT
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 18, 2018 - 06:09am PT
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agreed. Alex worked the route and had it wired. It still would not have been bad luck if he blew it. It would have been a case of him cutting it too close. Had he tried to onsight solo if would have been lucky if he made it but poor decision, not bad luck if he blew it. Any himilayan mountaineering is simply good luck to survive but not bad luck to get chopped. Getting chopped is the probability. Surviveing is lucky. same thing goes for big mountains in Alaska in winter. surviveing is lucky. Getting chopped is expected.
See the theme I am getting at. When we choose to do something that is stupidly dangerous if we survive it is a combination of skill and good luck. If we do not survive we can not blame it on bad luck because we made the decision to enter the breach.
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tradmanclimbs
Ice climber
Pomfert VT
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 18, 2018 - 06:14am PT
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Isle of man TT the most dangerous race in the world. 7 people died last year . Enter that race and live = skill and good luck. Enter that race and die = well WTF did you think was going to happen . .
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Mar 18, 2018 - 11:13am PT
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unaddressed, but interesting and necessary, is the question: what is luck?
it is referred to here as a thing which can be possessed, personally, and can be good or bad, distinct from chance or probability or likelihood all of which are impersonal, neutral in terms of "goodness/badness" and are not "things."
My view is that while we view events in terms of luck to personalize them and try to "understand" them, luck is really a way of avoiding the discussion of our chances.
The word "chance" comes from the Latin word cadere "to fall" as in throwing dice.
"Luck" is a recent word coming to the English language as a gambling term in the 15th century, the word "fortune" in our language also coming from Latin, the Roman goddess of fate/luck being Fortuna, who was assimilated into Christianity, a testament to human sensibilities.
Luck may well be a good concept in climbing as we often gamble, the ante being our health and even our lives.
Chance and risk are well known ideas, and whole processes have sprung up concerning "risk reduction." "Buying down risk" is a part of those processes, by which the risks are identified and mitigated. Also related is the idea of ROI, "return on investment" for which risk plays a role. These ideas have parallels in climbing, researching potential routes, training and preparedness, and the "ROI" of living a full life, while investing our lives. Ron Kauk recalled Jim Bridwell's comment about soloing: "so much to loose, so little to gain," a concise formulation of the soloing ROI.
It's important to point out that even sophisticated engineering organizations like NASA can fall prey to the idea that the chance of something bad happening is getting less, based on the fact that nothing had gone wrong even when the calculations show they could have. The Space Shuttle program had two failures, the predicted chance of catastrophic failure had been calculated to be something like 1 in 200, 135 missions and two catastrophic failures, Columbia and Challenger, indicate that the engineers calculated things accurately. The success of the program prior to the Columbia failure lead the managers to believe that the chances were better than they were being told. Their "luck ran out" is one way of thinking about it. Another way to think about it is they rolled the dice on each mission... it had nothing to do with luck, and that is what the final numbers tell us. 14 people died because of the "intuition" that the chances were better than they actually were.
But we tend to view chance in terms of luck, especially when the chances are highly suggestive of failure, but the outcome is successful, we call this "being lucky." For a sport like climbing where the consequence of failure can be grave, it is a way of separating the skill and abilities of the climbers to what we would consider to be bad outcomes: injury or death. In some ways this absolves them of the criticism that they engaged in risky activities which had high likelihood of a bad outcome. For those situations where those outcomes were possible but didn't happen we often comment that we're "lucky, it could have been worse."
The notion of "having luck" can lead us to attempt ever more risky endeavours, and once again we explain when those endeavours end badly that, "our luck has run out."
Unrecognized here are the myriad of times we were unaware that we were in any peril at all, when chance was in play but we did not know. Once again, we say we we're "lucky." Who here that has walked the path along the southeast base of El Capitan didn't feel "lucky" that the wall that fell this past summer didn't fall on them? Somehow we were unaware of the risk. But just look around you in Yosemite Valley, it is filled in by tens of thousands of years of that exact thing happening.
Where does luck spring from? where does it go?
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Bad Climber
Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
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Mar 18, 2018 - 11:15am PT
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Valid points, Tradman. Any climber at the game long enough will have some "good luck" moments. I had one early on. Seventeen and super keen, I headed into the Canadian Rockies with a somewhat older partner--maybe 22. We'd climbed together for a while, although I'd started climbing when I was 15. Anyway, we roped on the glacier approach to Mt. Andromeda with John Harlin II and his partner to make any crevasse falls safer. We parted ways below the north face. My partner and I were headed for the reg. north face route, Harlin and his partner for Photo Finish, if I recall correctly. Beautiful day, climbing went quickly. We topped out in bright sun--but too warm for sure. Very soft on top. We'd skirted a moderately big cornice to top out. And as I sat there I commented on the obvious fracture line: "That's going to break off some day."---WOOMPH! Down it goes, raking the route and almost all of our steps from the face. Had we been an hour later, we'd have been buried in the 'schrund.
We "made" our luck by starting early and moving fast, but that was cutting it damn close. It was a powerful lesson for a young climber. I later learned that Harlin's partner died while scrambling unroped on the slopes of Mt. Robeson just a week or so later. Big mountains are flat-out dangerous, and the more you enter into them, the greater the chance you'll get hit. But damn, when it's good out there, it's SO good!
BAd
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tradmanclimbs
Ice climber
Pomfert VT
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 18, 2018 - 04:04pm PT
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Made my own luck today. Isa is in Europe, lost my phone with a bunch of my contacts in it... Decided that my usual solo circuit up in Smuggs is too loaded with snow to be safe so settled on the west faceing Lac Willoughby. Most of these climbs are out of my soloing comfort zone but I did have something in mind that I felt would be reasonable. I had never done Zephyr but it looked interesting. The snow was deep but felt stable. Ice was funky but climbed well in the cold temps about 30ft from the top I encountered a snow slab over rock. I felt like I could probably climb it and get to the last bit of ice just to say that I made it to the top. I also felt that it simply was not nessicary and something bad might happen up there. Certainly had I scrapped my way up that slab and made the top of the climb I would have felt lucky. like I got away with something. If something bad happened it would not have been bad luck. I would have simply felt stupid and dead. There was a decent spot of ice just below and left of the photo for a bomber thread. I made the right call and a great time was had by all :)
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F
climber
away from the ground
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Mar 18, 2018 - 08:19pm PT
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tradmanclimbs
Ice climber
Pomfert VT
Topic Author's Original Post - Mar 17, 2018 - 04:56pm PT
To a large degree we make our own luck. Getting chopped by an avalanch in the tetons in July is most likely really bad luck. Getting chopped by an avalanche on big mountains in Alaska in winter is inevitable
Have you spent much time, or any time for that matter, in the mountains of Alaska?
What do you qualify as the “big” mountains of Alaska? Elevation, remoteness, or relief?
Are you even Irish?
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tradmanclimbs
Ice climber
Pomfert VT
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 19, 2018 - 03:10am PT
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the sh#t everyone keeps dying on. It is sometimes a good idea to learn from others mistakes rather than your own.
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Dolomite
climber
Anchorage
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Mar 19, 2018 - 08:22am PT
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Uh, getting the chop in an avalanche on a big mountain in Alaska is not inevitable for those that choose to do so. We all try to minimize risk in the mountains, yet without risk, climbing is not climbing. Everyone's level of "acceptable" risk is different. Deal with it.
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tradmanclimbs
Ice climber
Pomfert VT
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 19, 2018 - 03:12pm PT
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Yes. everyones level of risk is different which explains why so many of the avalanch experts are dead... Isa and I watched a video of a young girl skiing a totally sick chute in Alaska a few years ago. Isa used to ski with Doug Coombs etc back in the eightys. She watched that video and got all quiet.. then she said that girl is dead.. A year later she was gone...
do whatever you want but if you have kids and do Fa's on big mountains in winter you might get away with it for awhile but if you stick with it and spend too much time in the zone.... maybe not....
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Reeotch
climber
4 Corners Area
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Mar 19, 2018 - 03:35pm PT
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Re. Hartouni's post
You're "lucky" , when you beat the odds . . .
And, you're stupid when you don't . . . Or, dead.
We should, at least recognize when we were "lucky", and not just stupid, or dead.
How many of you has ever said to yourself, "that was stupid! I was lucky."
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Mar 19, 2018 - 03:40pm PT
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Been in a bunch of avalanches. Not one was a surprise. When I met my wife I was done.
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F
climber
away from the ground
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Mar 19, 2018 - 07:45pm PT
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Ignorance is bliss.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Mar 19, 2018 - 08:26pm PT
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How many of you has ever said to yourself, "that was stupid! I was lucky."
many times,
but there are many more times I didn't even know I was lucky, or stupid...
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Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Mar 19, 2018 - 08:52pm PT
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I was lucky in my teens & 20's, when I was really involved in climbing new routes in remote places in Idaho. I am somewhat amazed to find that only two folks I have climbed with, died in climbing accidents. One, I introduced to technical rock climbing & one was the little brother of a friend, & I barely remember climbing with him.
Strangely, they both died, within minutes of each other, on a trip to Mt. Waddington, with much-more experienced climbers running the show. One fell through a cornice & was never seen again. A few minutes later, the other fell while descending, slid into a crevasse, & was never seen again.
How unlucky was that, for them?
Otherwise, the most serious climbing accident I have witnessed, was a shattered ankle, from a bad crevasse jump at the Columbia Ice fields.
Seriously! My friends & I enjoy toasting each other every evening, we are still together:
"Here's to cheating death."
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RussianBot
climber
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Mar 19, 2018 - 09:02pm PT
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Our belief in luck is just a measure of our ignorance. If we knew all the variables and their values and their relationships to the outcome, there wouldn’t be luck, there would only be knowledge.
Each time that you flip a coin, it comes up either heads or tails, for the physical reasons that it comes up heads or tails. Luck isn’t one of those reasons.
It’s coherent to add the involvement of leprechauns to any explanation. If that’s what we’re inclined to do. Seems to be working for humans so far. It must be really important to us to believe that we know.
Sorry if my comments on luck, in a thread about luck, are off topic. Humans ...
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Clint Cummins
Trad climber
SF Bay area, CA
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Mar 19, 2018 - 09:22pm PT
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Nick,
Thanks for the thread, stories and photos.
It's much like my post on the locked Leclerc-Johnson accident thread,
about how the words "very unlucky" were not what I felt were an
appropriate description of the risk of the gully they descended.
I would state things somewhat differently.
We choose our own risks, rather than make our own luck.
Luck is still involved, in terms of random factors (based on our lack of knowledge) that influence the result.
We are "lucky" when we survive an event where the probability of survival was "low".
"Low" could mean 50%, 20%, or maybe even 95%.
As Ed mentioned, in real life, it's usually what a behavioral economist would call a "subjective probability",
where we estimate the probability based on past events and incomplete knowledge of the current conditions.
Sometimes, we might think the probability is 999/1000, but in reality it might be 1/2,
with the difference due to our observation and estimation methods.
This is where you want to have some idea of the variability or accuracy of your estimate of the probability.
If the most likely number looks like .999, but the likely range is .2 to .9999, it's probably time to call it .5 .
A possible final perspective is in rating survival across multiple random events.
Your survival P could be 99/100 in each event, but if you participate in 150 independent events, your chances of surviving all of them is low.
So you naturally try to skip events with smaller P, and add backup systems to increase P for the overall process.
[Click to View YouTube Video]
Here's one of my favorite clips, which happens to show how one pro in a high risk job assesses risk and reward.
The risk assessment part starts at 3:33, but I like the whole thing....
"There is no need to drive fast. It just increases the percentage of risk."
[Click to View YouTube Video]
Here's another that shows different attitudes towards risk assessment.
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Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Mar 19, 2018 - 09:25pm PT
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Russianbot1 Per your comment on luck:
Each time that you flip a coin, it comes up either heads or tails, for the physical reasons that it comes up heads or tails. Luck isn’t one of those reasons.
Yes, I know that is true. I have a college science degree, & I know in coin-flipping tests, one side or the other can come up for an amazing number of flips, or not.
I still believe in luck & I don't believe I'm lucky, except in cheating death,
so far,
or not.
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RussianBot
climber
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Mar 19, 2018 - 09:55pm PT
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The way I see things, whether I see not getting killed in the avalanche as lucky, or whether I see getting killed in the avalanche as lucky, has more to do with the way I see things than it does with luck.
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F
climber
away from the ground
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Mar 19, 2018 - 10:25pm PT
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Clint is trying to explain “luck” in a scientific-ish way to lay persons. (Some that can’t spell words at a 6th grade level, and some that think that avalanches “come out of nowhere!)
Maybe I can bridge the scholar (Clint, Ed)/ layperson (Nick, Reilly) gap.
(Rational) Perceived risk is almost always less than actual risk.
False positives provide a reinforcement of “instinctual prowess”.
The snow “feels” good.
The cornice “looks” stable.
The granite roof floating in space has been there “forever”.
Even if someone can consciously acknowledge there may be a chance of a catastrophic event that could kill them, they will almost always underestimate the “odds”.
Heuristics, which I believe I’ve harped on in other threads.... play a large factor in many deaths in the mountains.
Example- We had an incident several years ago where a heli ski client was crushed under a serac at the toe of the Knik Glacier.
They wanted to get a couple of pictures against the background of the glacier, the guide with them said “sure, but don’t stand there for long.” Less than ten minutes in the danger zone, but that’s all it took.
In a debriefing about the fatal incident the spring freeze/thaw cycle, the time of day and the lack of debris at the incident area all should have been obvious clues to the guide that the seracs were prime to pop.
A scientific study and analysis of the probability of the serac fall probability was not done. ( obviously).
The guide went with his “instinct” that 10 minutes of exposure would be safe. He said he’s never seen those seracs calve off.
Just because you’ve never seen it happen doesn’t mean it won’t.
Think geologic time....
Nick, despite his obvious naivety, makes a good point. You make your own luck.
If you are looking at a descent, or ascent, with obvious objective danger, what can you do to mitigate the danger?
Obviously, there are an infinite number of scenarios to talk about, but one that I have been in, both rappelling an Alpine route, and descending a ski line is this -
Top of the ridge, descent route below. Looking at a huge cornice that threatens the line of descent. Two options. Ski, or rappel, and hope for the best. (I’m a lucky Irish guy!!!!!)
Or spend an hour and a half cutting the whole cornice that threatens your descent route. This takes time, skill, and patience when you are tired. But it eliminates the threat that you are depending on your “luck” to protect you from otherwise.
If the threat is eliminated, you just made your “luck” of a safe descent a lot better.
Roll the dice, or eliminate the objective hazard.
Those are your choices.
Which choice do you make?
(Full disclosure, I lost 500$ this fall when I put it all on black at the Red Rock Casino. Odds were only 49.6 in my favor. I knew that, and took the risk anyway. But I didn’t die, and I’m here still to spray.).
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Mar 19, 2018 - 10:40pm PT
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Powerball lucky? BwaHaHaHa! Avalanches, guns to the head, shot at, soloing 1/2” verglass,
airplanes running out of gas, and so much stoopid sh!t it isn’t even pfunny. And that’s only the
stuff I can divulge!
That’s why I always fly business class - it could be my last flight and I want my free champagne, even if it’s crappy.
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zBrown
Ice climber
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Mar 19, 2018 - 11:49pm PT
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I actually flipped a coin and it came up on edge rather than heads or tails.
It messed up the theoretical presentation under way
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tradmanclimbs
Ice climber
Pomfert VT
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 20, 2018 - 03:29am PT
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I have gotten away with tons of stupid sh#t. but I know that was simply luck to survive were as if I had not gotten away with it it would have been stupidity. I had to listen to people telling me that my best friend was an as#@&%e after I had seen him in in two pieces on fire from a motorcycle wreck. harsh but true.
As for time spent in the zone. Many years ago I shot IPSC. Someone might shoot a 100 rnds in practice and feel pretty good that they only had one malfunction. I took that 1 in 100 number as completely unacceptable. A match was usualy 135 to 150 rnds which would leave me at least 100% chance of having to clear a malfunction mid match.
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Jaybro
Social climber
Wolf City, Wyoming
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Mar 20, 2018 - 05:41am PT
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To steal and garble from The Fish; “climbing is serious business! Play to win!
Last May I dislocated my shoulder, doing this;
I’d done this move in this location at least a dozen times before. After extensive analysis, discussions with my physical therapist, specific sequence of events that day, etc. I’m reasonably sure about why and how it happened that particular day. But, all the other times I’d done it I’d never known how close to that particular edge I was treading ( bridging). Was it “luck” that the particular factors didn’t stack up against me, earlier?
I have climbed a number of formations that are no longer with us. I can name half a dozen off the top of my head. They could have collapsed when I was on them. Sometimes geologic time is Now! Had I gotten the chop it would have been “DumbLuck”.
Over what has now been almost a year I have learned to live with my ‘injury in recovery’. I know many does and don’ts that I wouldn’t have guessed before. I also know how to reset in the field, a couple times even on lead.
Right facing, right hand leading, hand cracks are my arch nemisis right now, even as easy as 5.8 plus. Within my idiom though I have been able to pull down 5.12 plus, post injury.
The other day I onsight freesoloed and downclimbed, a 5.9 hand / fist crack. I set myself up for success. Though there was some risk,I knew it wasn’t likely to make my shoulder pop. I knew how to reset in situ, if need be. I knew I could down climb it one handed. It’s low angle, I could keep my weight on my feet. There was a soft landing...
But with all that, if the reaper had tapped me on the shoulder it would have been my fault, not bad luck.
I weighed Controlled, Calculated risk against a carpe diem, use it or lose it ( I am,61c after all) joy de vie impulse. It was a blast!
Btw Locker is one of the most alive people I know!
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Jaybro
Social climber
Wolf City, Wyoming
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Mar 20, 2018 - 06:09am PT
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👍👍
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John Mac
Trad climber
Breckenridge, CO
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Mar 20, 2018 - 06:34am PT
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In the latest American Avalanche review there is a great article tilted: "Are we good or just lucky" The link below is to the mag, unfortunately the article is not online.
https://www.americanavalancheassociation.org/tar/
I retired from Helicopter ski guiding not because of the inherent risk of avalanches and the never ending pressure of clients always wanting to go harder and faster, but because of helicopter accidents. I was in three accidents during my career and walked away from them in each case. Unfortunately, not everyone was as lucky as me!
So are we good, or just lucky? Or maybe a bit of both. The margin of safety is sometimes very thin.
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madbolter1
Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
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Mar 20, 2018 - 10:24am PT
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but there are many more times I didn't even know I was lucky, or stupid...
Indeed. We live in a deep epistemic hole.
I've been both stupid and lucky, I'm sure mostly unaware of the fact of both.
Glad to still be here.
But there's no avoiding the inevitable, however it gets us.
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AP
Trad climber
Calgary
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Mar 20, 2018 - 11:51am PT
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A chopper pilot was returning to base after dropping off skiers at the Battle Abbey hut in central BC a number of years ago.
He landed on a mountain ridge so he could take a piss.
Bad Luck:
The chopper fell off the ridge and down the mountain
Good Luck:
Pilot was clear of the chopper and had a radio in his jacket
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Mar 20, 2018 - 12:07pm PT
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^^^^ LOL! How did he like his next job - driving a bus in Hongcouver?
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madbolter1
Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
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Mar 20, 2018 - 12:30pm PT
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^^^ ROFL
You can't make this sh|t up!
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Bad Climber
Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
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Mar 20, 2018 - 12:32pm PT
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Russionbot said: It’s coherent to add the involvement of leprechauns to any explanation.
Fantastic! Are you here all week?
I climb a lot in the Owen's Gorge. Once I drop below the rim, I am in the firing line of billions of tons of loose rock. It's kinda freaky if you stop and think about it for too long! I usually walk the road from the lower parking area, and I look up at all that massive choss, tilted boulders of every size, occasionally a nice block or two in the road. Yikes. Mostly I fantasize about the effects of an earthquake. Yar. But still I go in. Had a blast yesterday. I guess every time I make it back out to the car I've been lucky.
Risk is often more in the head than in reality. Parents, for example, have been so saturated with the worst news that they don't let kids take any chances, yet it's never been safer to be a kid. I listened to a woman who's a big advocate of "free range" parenting, i.e. how virtually all of us grew up. She pointed out that the worst case scenario is a psycho abducting your child, a fear grotesquely exaggerated back in the '80s by the missing child photos on milk cartons. Of course, something like 90% or more of those kids were taken in nasty custody battles, but the implied risk was that YOUR KID COULD BE NEXT! So, the woman did a statistical analysis of how long you'd have to leave your kid outside, unattended, to face a reasonable chance of being abducted. What do you think? A few days, months? A year? Nope. 750 thousand years. Of course, yer kid has aged out of the risk pool at that point. Heh. Still, there are a few cases of parents being arrested for letting their kids walk home a mile or so. We live in strange times.
BAd
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madbolter1
Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
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Mar 20, 2018 - 12:46pm PT
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Solid points, imo, Bad.
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AP
Trad climber
Calgary
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Mar 20, 2018 - 02:44pm PT
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I don't know how we survived with mothers who smoke and drank during pregnancy, no seat belts in cars, no bike helmets, dangerous playground equipment on an asphalt surface, and 3 fall ropes.
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madbolter1
Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
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Mar 20, 2018 - 02:55pm PT
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^^^ Just lucky, I guess.
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tradmanclimbs
Ice climber
Pomfert VT
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 20, 2018 - 03:09pm PT
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rideing in the back of pick up trucks...
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Jaybro
Social climber
Wolf City, Wyoming
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Mar 21, 2018 - 05:03am PT
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But there's no avoiding the inevitable, however it gets us.
After all, If we could avoid it' it wouldn't be inevitable!😎
But how often to do we recognize,miss, or misread what is inevitable. Play to win!
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Mar 21, 2018 - 06:14am PT
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I don't know how we survived with mothers who smoke and drank during pregnancy, no seat belts in cars, no bike helmets, dangerous playground equipment on an asphalt surface, and 3 fall ropes.
And No-Pest strips in every room...
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Trump
climber
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Mar 23, 2018 - 05:36pm PT
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“Perceived risk is almost always less than actual risk.”
Or maybe you’re lucky to not have a fear based psych disorder like OCD or anxiety or something, and to only perceive risk based on the information you have, without considering the information that you don’t have, and so your experience is to underestimate the risks from the information you don’t have. Maybe there are even some facts about why you’re “lucky” to seem to not have a fear based disorder?
Perceived risk is based on our perceptions. (My apologies for the duh) A lot of our perceptions are at least partly based on the information we have - the knowledge we have. And the rest is based on how we process that information. Luck is just our way to describe the difference between reality and the information we do have.
To not have information, or to not have knowledge, and to believe that we have luck instead, is maybe not as lucky, or as factual, as we believe it is.
That we all perceive that we’re lucky if we’re not killed by the avalanche, and we don’t perceive that we’re lucky if we do get killed by the avalanche, is maybe not really lucky at all, but more a reflection of what 4 billion years of survival of the fittest has done to our perception systems.
And maybe completely trusting that we have enough of the information to make a decision that won’t get us killed, even when we (any of us) don’t have all the information, and so discounting the information that we don’t have, and therefore discounting the “risk”, is reflective of that 4 billion year old process too?
If an avalanche happens at an exact place in time and space, and there’s a newbie who didn’t know what they were doing who gets killed by it, they’re no more or less lucky than if an experienced guide, the best and the brightest, with the most current information on avalanches, had gotten swept away in that same moment. The avalanche happened for reasons that are disconnected from our perceptions of the unluck of being killed by the avalanche.
The person was there when the avalanche happened for reasons that weren’t luck either. That the guide was a guide who loved outdoor adventure and studied up on avalanches, or that the newbie was an executive with three kids with no time to spend doing enough research to know that that avalanche was going to happen at that exact place and time, weren’t due to luck either.
The reasons that someone gets killed by an avalanche are a function of the information that we don’t have. And the information that we have or don’t have isn’t a function of luck. It’s no more unlucky to get killed by an avalanche with a lot of the information about whether an avalanche might happen than it is to get killed by an avalanche with only a little bit of the information.
Maybe it would be lucky for us to know all of the exact reasons why an avalanche happens at a specific place and time, but we were lucky to be born as humans, with our human ways of perceiving “luck”, instead.
Always the reference class problem.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
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johnkelley
climber
Anchorage Alaska
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Mar 24, 2018 - 02:33am PT
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If climbing FA’s on big mountains in Alaska means it’s inevitable that I’ll get the chop and climbing in the Himalayas means it’s inevitable I’ll also get killed what about the FA’s of Himalayan peaks in the winter that I’ve been up to? Are you claiming i’ve only been successful at it because of luck?
Was I more lucky to survive new routes in Alaska during the winter or new routes in the Himalayas in the winter?
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perswig
climber
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Mar 24, 2018 - 03:05am PT
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The risk I took was calculated......but man, am I bad at math.
Dale
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tradmanclimbs
Ice climber
Pomfert VT
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 24, 2018 - 05:23am PT
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John. I respect the hell out of what you do and always enjoy your trip reports.
lot of folks get killed doing that stuff. you tell us?? what makes you different from the guys and gals that don't make it?
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johnkelley
climber
Anchorage Alaska
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Mar 24, 2018 - 05:50am PT
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Tell me about it...Maybe you should stop climbing if it bothers you?
Here’s a photo Clint Heilander took of Ryan Johnson (in red) and I getting picked up with the North Face of Main Memdenhall in the background.
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tradmanclimbs
Ice climber
Pomfert VT
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 24, 2018 - 05:57am PT
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Obviously climbing accidents can happen in all styles of climbing. You can get lowered off your rope sport climbing or have a rapelling accident trad or ice climbing but the sheer number of user days between accidents leads us to be reasonable certain that we are going to be ok doing most of the normal recreational climbing that we do. Ice climbing is certainly more dangerous than rock climbing but even then with the tens of thousands of user days we have each season here in the north east a fatality is very rare and our usual 3 or so accidents a year involve those nasty lower leg injuries that crampons cause...
K2 on the other hand, people die every season.. You simply can not go there and assume that you won't die. Death on that mountain is a constant companion.
same thing goes for Isle of Man TT.
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tradmanclimbs
Ice climber
Pomfert VT
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 24, 2018 - 06:07am PT
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It does not bother me. I Ice climb and I solo a lot. many of my friends solo. We climb waterfalls and cliffs. we rarely lose anyone. maybe we are just lucky. who knows?? but mostly our mountains are simply much more forgiveing than yours....
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johnkelley
climber
Anchorage Alaska
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Mar 24, 2018 - 06:30am PT
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I lost too many friends climbing but I’m pretty sure more were involved in accidents while cragging. More on shorter climbs then on mountain routes. Seems like more now then when I was in my 30’s and it seems like most of the lost are in their early-mid 30’s now too. Makes sense since their generation is much larger then mine. Drugs, car wrecks, and suicide have taken more then anything else...
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tradmanclimbs
Ice climber
Pomfert VT
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 24, 2018 - 06:46am PT
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Lost my best friend in a motorcycle accident @21 yrs old and quit street raceing and rideing altogether.. Was simo soloing grade 3 ice on Mt Washington a few years later when my partner came off. He fell several hundred meters completely out of my sight. I assumed he was gone and made a vow with myself that I was not going to give up climbing. when I reached him he was conscious and survived to climb again.. lots of luck involved in that one....
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Trump
climber
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Mar 24, 2018 - 08:38am PT
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I appreciate the perceptions that we mostly all share about risk as a result of our direct experience with eg climbing. I just don’t think that our understanding of it is as accurate as we think.
When we compare the “luck” of getting killed in an avalanche in July in the Tetons to the “luck” of getting killed in an avalanche in the big mountains in Alaska, what we’re doing is putting each individual instance of an avalanche into a larger reference class, and saying that the probability of getting killed in each instance is the same as the probability of getting killed in that reference class, and saying that our “luck” is the difference between the two. Yes, that’s a heuristic, and maybe, like all the other beliefs we each individually form, the best we can do, even if our belief is not entirely true.
But each individual instance of an avalanche is a result of specific individual conditions - each individual instance of an avalanche is itself it’s own unique reference class.
The reason we perceive that the probability of each instance is the same as the probability of the reference class is because we lack the information that would allow us to compute exactly whether the avalanche was going to occur or not. We do it because we’re ignorant of those facts - we do it because it’s the best we can do when computing with incomplete information, and needing to come to a complete conclusion. Like every single other one of our beliefs.
The “probability” of the avalanche happening at the exact moment that you’re in its path in the Tetons in July is not determined, or completely explained, by the reference class of avalanches in July. It’s not a random event - the “probability” of it happening is either 0 or 1. It either happens or doesn’t happen for the specific reasons that it happens or doesn’t happen, we just don’t know what those reasons are.
What we think of as “probability” in this case is a fiction - what we really mean is plausibility - what makes sense for us to believe about whether an avalanche is going to occur during our climb.
What makes sense for each individual person to believe is, similarly, a function of the specific information that we each individually have, combined with the processing systems that we each individually have developed through genetics (4 billion years of survival of the fittest) and the effect of our environment and experiences on our processing systems, where the chopping block for all of those things is survival of the fittest.
That our perception is that (i.e. that our processing systems tell us that) we “made” our own luck, and people who aren’t as good as we are at it are just not as good at “making” their own “luck”, is also a reflection of our self-confirming survival of the fittest induced processing systems, in the same way that our believing that we’re lucky if we don’t killed by the avalanche, and we’re unlucky if we do get killed by the avalanche, is a reflection of our survival of the fittest belief processes.
But we each individually believe what we believe for the reasons that we believe it, and if in the reference class of humans, we overwhelmingly prefer to not believe that, I apologize for my third grade understanding.
Hoping we’re all lucky!
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BruceHildenbrand
Social climber
Mountain View/Boulder
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This thread is a good example of why I don't believe in the slogan "Sh*t Happens"
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donini
Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
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Sh#t happens because of the positions people put themselves in..."hold my beer, watch this!"
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Don Paul
Gym climber
Denver CO
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I view it as a matter of identifying risks and minimizing them. Hanging out in "the zone" isn't for me.
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larryhorton
Trad climber
NM
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Regardless of belief, regardless of presence or absence of interest in spiritual truth, human beings are guaranteed two spiritual experiences in life—birth and death. Do you really believe the divine is stupid or imperfect enough to leave those experiences to chance? The time, place, and circumstances of both are soundly in place before soul enters a human body—as well as parents, siblings, mates, children, careers, avocations, everything. It’s all a setup. And those significant others in our lives are not strangers—we’ve known and shared karma with them for a long, long time.
But we don’t believe in karma, do we? Other than to make cute jokes about it. Or to flap our lips about what the mind thinks of these things.
Given a few thousand more lifetimes, though, we may have decided there might be something there—or here. And given a few more rounds, we may be graced to overhear a conversation such as this thread, and recognize it as the mechanical mind incessantly chewing again on concepts that don’t even exist. And we’ll smile and be grateful for what’s unfolding in our own consciousness, while unimaginable truths are endlessly revealed as we make our way to realms far beyond the existence of karma, or $hit happens. All while living in a physical body.
It never ceases to amaze me that climbers, of all people, who continually set themselves up for spiritual experiences beyond the requisite two, seem to be completely disinterested in looking our self-created experience squarely in its eye. But in life—or death—at this level, there is no luck, no happenstance—it simply doesn’t exist. And when the second experience happens, only one identity will be left. It won’t be our cherished mind.
In the meantime, enjoy the ferris wheel!
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larryhorton
Trad climber
NM
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You’re absolutely right, xCon. But the vast majority of humanity can ignore or deny the suffering for an amazingly long time. Birth and translation are difficult to ignore.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Do you really believe the divine
I think you loose me here.
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7SacredPools
Trad climber
Ontario, Canada
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As far as the cosmos is concerned, we humans are no more special than a chicken. We just imagine we are.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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You did, but you are certainly in a long line of speculation on the matter, the Μοῖραι being only a beginning in the west.
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Flip Flop
climber
Earth Planet, Universe
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"Shallow men believe in luck. Strong men believe in cause and effect." Ralph W.E.
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TomCochrane
Trad climber
Cascade Mountains and Monterey Bay
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Most of us here have entrusted our lives to Boot Flake, even though it has no visible means of support and we all know it falls down every first day of April.
While standing on top of Dolt Tower I experienced a large rock fall that seemed about the right amount of mass for Boot Flake.
Straight across the valley on the North Face of Lower Cathedral Rock, a few of us entrusted our lives to a 300' flake that was central to success on the route, but with no visible means of support. That flake is now a large boulder field at the base of the wall and the wall has not been climbed since that happened following the third ascent.
Frank Sacherer and I climbed the El Cap Tree Direct by a route that has now fallen off into the boulder field at the base.
A key piece of the NFHD has fallen off.
The GP Apron has been thoroughly scoured by large rock falls.
We've all seen the pictures of the Waterfall Route and we've all walked under there to the East Ridge and other routes.
Yet Yosemite has some of the most solid pieces of rock around.
The concept of luck seems like a pretty weird idea
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larryhorton
Trad climber
NM
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No argument. This is great. The perspective of each entry perfectly reveals its level of residence. And each is perfect, fulfilling its portion of the journey.
Nice quote from Emerson, Flip Flop. I’ve never read Emerson and haven’t seen this quote. The saints would add to it: Soul accepts the perfection of cause and effect and the weight of its responsibility in the physical body, yet is already in the process of becoming first cause, never effect.
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donini
Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
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That is correct Flip Flop and karma (like prayer) has zero relatiinship to cause and effect.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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The concept of luck seems like a pretty weird idea
Not to a few billion asians. La Femme’s office mate’s mum just died. The office mate is a
woman of science delivering quality health care daily. But NO WAY will she enter our house
during the 30 days after her mum passed.
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larryhorton
Trad climber
NM
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Tom, the depth of your perception and observations is priceless. Isn’t it interesting how we begin to see cycles of time near the end of our lives that weren’t previously visible? Just imagine the cycles that only reveal themselves in lengths of time beyond that of human life—and remain totally unknown to the human mind!
What you’ve seen in your lifetime are mere suggestions of ‘from dust to dust’, yet clearly point in that direction—the nature of the dual, lower worlds. And the value of your observation is that it comes from undeniable personal experience. It’s yours!
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larryhorton
Trad climber
NM
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Sin, a grossly distorted moralistic concept these days, was defined in ancient Greece as, “missing the mark”, a far more realistic description of missteps on the journey.
Karma IS cause and effect—an invariably precise and perfect, self-regulating system to keep the lower worlds and their denizens from flying apart. Every thought, feeling, word, and action is a cause put in motion. And it will have a precise effect. As mentioned above, just because we’re incapable of perceiving the extent of karma’s play doesn’t negate its existence. And the higher our vantage point, the more obvious this becomes.
Prayer, on the other hand, begs for a handout, and is a willy-nilly self-admission that the divine doesn’t already exist within each human being. But it perfectly serves most of humanity.
Maybe Jim will share with us what he thinks karma is.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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and the reverend conjectured:
P(A|B)P(B)=P(B|A)P(A)
deal with it.
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larryhorton
Trad climber
NM
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I’ll bet it was grace, Moose.
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Don Paul
Gym climber
Denver CO
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Years ago I worked as a salesman. If you want to succeed in that profession you need to believe in statistics, not luck. If you make 50 phone calls a day, you're going to find a lot of customers. On the other hand if you ride an emotional rollercoaster and celebrate every sale and get depressed when someone hangs up on you, you won't.
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cornel
climber
Lake Tahoe, Nevada
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A peasant farmers single horse ran off one day. When the villagers heard they said what bad fortune.! The farmer replied serenely, perhaps. His horse returned 2 days later with 3 other horses. When the villagers heard they replied what good fortune! The farmer serenely stated, perhaps. The farmers 19 yr old son broke his leg leaving the farmer short handed. The villagers said what bad fortune! The farmer serenely replied, perhaps. The next day the Chinese Army came into the village looking for all able bodied young men. The villagers said Oh what good fortune your son not being taken by the army! The farmer serenely replied, perhaps..
The moral, cool calm collected rules the day. Good things can happen when we are not radiating fear, radiating thought. Seeing clearly the path forward. Certainly this is easier said than done. I try to nurture this attitude in stillness throughout my day. I found it especially beneficial in climbing, walls year round and skiing the backcountry. One can see the danger zone clearly and how to best negotiate it. Whether it’s how to do an A5 safely (no holes or enhancements either) or see that ski shoot with a boobytrap waiting.. pick another line.. the danger wherever it may lay can be seen. Sometimes it’s where you least expect it...
So far I have managed 45 yrs with only one broken ankle and a dislocated shoulder..
If I get the chop tomorrow I have not a single regret..
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OnsightOrGoHome
Trad climber
Fair Oaks
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I've always thought it odd when someone is injured, but survives what could have easily resulted in death, as being considered to have been "lucky". "He's lucky he only lost a leg and didn't die!"
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ß Î Ø T Ç H
Boulder climber
ne'er–do–well
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The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.
~ Mark Twain
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larryhorton
Trad climber
NM
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To the devotee of food, who enjoys preparing a delicious and thoroughly life supporting breakfast for self and loved ones, it’s enough to start with a generous splash of olive oil and black mustard seeds in the wok. Maybe some cumin seed, as well. Place the wok over a moderate flame. When the mustard seeds begin to pop, it’s time to add onion, red bell pepper, and celery, and begin stirring. Still too early to put in the garlic, although it’s already chopped and ready, along with shiitake mushrooms, zucchini, and bok choy stems. At the proper time these will be added, so the garlic isn’t overcooked, and the mushrooms have had ample time to absorb all the delectable juices. The loving cook, of course, has already done his morning exercise, and is thoroughly connected to the inner Master, Who is unerringly guiding every move of His devoted student’s daily tasks—even though the disciple is blissed out, thinking only of the Master! Near the end, bok choy greens, maybe some spinach, and the separately braised chunks of lamb are tossed in until just before they’re limp, and it’s all ready to be placed on hot plates and delivered to it’s appreciative destination.
In a parallel universe, the Ed Cartoonies of the world are shouting, “Mustard seeds popping?!!”, bristling in outrage over such a simple and ‘primitive’ notion. They, instead, are getting out their digital thermometers, watches, and electronic devices to enter this important information into their databases. Some of them entertain such well developed minds that they can assemble and calculate all these numbers in their heads to determine the proper moment, via temperature (in centigrade) and time (24 hour time), to determine when to safely add other ingredients. And of course each step must be similarly analyzed and determined for success. Brilliant! Scientific!!!
In the meantime, the lovely, organic, extra-virgin, but overheated olive oil has charred the little mustard seeds to carbon and is transforming into a popping, sizzling, carcinogenic chemical whose stench and equally carcinogenic smoke is filling the house, sending hapless, hungry guests rushing outside for a breath of fresh air.
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TomCochrane
Trad climber
Cascade Mountains and Monterey Bay
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I've never been seriously injured while climbing.
But I could write a book just on amazing near misses and climbing routes that fell down or avalanched.
Also many amazing near misses while SCUBA diving, flying, ocean sailing, motorcycling on the highways, and twice being chased in the wilderness by riflemen.
My only serious injuries have been a broken elbow playing mandatory basketball in Boise High School PE class, being tossed out of the back seat of a Jeep rolled by L. Ron Hubbard's son Arthur as we drove up the hill to ski at Big Bear, and having my chute collapsed while I was still 20 feet up at Skydive Spaceland in Rosharon Texas.
Still healthy, still having fun ...
There is no logical material universe rational for how I could have survived all this.
Is this luck? ... that's not how I think of it ...
thankful and grateful
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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In a parallel universe, the Ed Cartoonies of the world are shouting, “Mustard seeds popping?!!”, bristling in outrage over such a simple and ‘primitive’ notion...
My aren't we a bit melodramatic.
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larryhorton
Trad climber
NM
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My aren't we a bit melodramatic.
Perhaps, Ed, but which one of us it is remains to be seen.
Regardless, melodrama wasn’t the message.
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larryhorton
Trad climber
NM
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A noteworthy and endearing characteristic of the Master is that He’s hilarious—as well as perfect.
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donini
Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
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Bottom line....if you think that luck, karma, prayer or best wishes will effect outcomes for you, you’re plain out of luck.
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clinker
Trad climber
Santa Cruz, California
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I think i'll stay with differentiating apples and oranges.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Regardless, melodrama wasn’t the message.
If the message was a cooking lesson, you incorrectly characterized my methods, which are more akin to yours (or apparently yours). I'm sure this was to make a point though, regardless of the accuracy of its melodramatic delivery.
What do you know of the "Ed Cartoonies" of the world, Larry Horton?
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larryhorton
Trad climber
NM
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thankful and grateful
Those insights are honing in on truth. Hold ’em tightly, Tom. They will serve you.
I’m reminded of when I first consciously came under the wing of the Master over twenty years ago, and this litany of memories, very similar to your own, just kept flooding in until I could no longer avoid the truth that He has been with me since day one, guiding and protecting. I’ve gotten away with murder in this lifetime, and walking away unscathed had become such a ‘habit’ that I did not really notice until I was literally standing on the doorstep of the Source of my protection. It’s so obvious that I have been in this Presence in a previous lifetime, further enhancing the aura of familiarity, but until 1997, I was vain enough to think it was only ME. MEEEEEEE!!
Right, Larry.
Climbing really is a perfect foil for the journey, if we’re paying attention.
Edit:
Tom, on reflection, I’d like to qualify. When I said, hold ‘em tightly, I didn’t mean like hoarding trophies to display on the mantel. I’m sure you know that. But, if we take the time to contemplate these events, especially while they’re still live images, we discover surprising messages—not necessarily the ones technically related to what just happened. This can even happen with older memories. But when they’re fresh is the time to squeeze them for every erg of divinity they possess.
The miraculous and distinguishing thing about messages from the Master, is that we extract completely new information from them each time we revisit them—simply because, if we’re doing things right, we’re at a completely new level of consciousness each time, and can see things previously unavailable to us.
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larryhorton
Trad climber
NM
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Ed, you’re doing just great. In truth, in honesty, in love, I’ve already told you more than you’ll assimilate in this lifetime. Just keep on keepin’ on, and life will eventually reveal your next step.
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larryhorton
Trad climber
NM
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Jim, I can’t help you with your confusion—especially since you’re not even aware of it. The respect and admiration you receive from this population is satisfactory sustenance for now.
But if you were given just a glimpse, a tiny erg of what awaits you, lifetimes down the road, the facade would crumble. You’d fall down in uncontrolled weeping from the incomprehensible beauty of the thunderous truth and unbearable love that exists there. Just for you.
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larryhorton
Trad climber
NM
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Dingus, that last image you posted a few pages back... It’s brilliance still stuns me. That is the most perfectly horrifying representation of life in these lower worlds I’ve ever encountered. And the perfection that it now resides on this forum leaves one speechless. What’s more profound yet are the unmoving figures in the center. I’m pretty culturally illiterate, and I have no idea what probably-well-known film this is lifted from. And I’m pretty sure the motives of the central characters are more evil than I can imagine.
But from the higher vantage point, for one who is blinded by the divine, the central characters represent soul and the Master, lovingly focused and immovable at the center of the hurricane. I could stare at this gif for a long time (and have), and the flashes just keep rolling through, endlessly.
Thank you.
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larryhorton
Trad climber
NM
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For those of you still determined to understand ‘luck’, let me share my favorite story on the subject, although ‘luck’ is not the subject at all. Nonetheless, it’s a priceless story, true in spirit.
Ben Hogan, one of golfing’s legendary swings, had just spectacularly pulled off another mindblowing tournament win, and he’s suddenly surrounded by the jubilant crowd and journalists.
The journalists are pressing him for a story. “My gosh, Ben! That was just magnificent! How did you do it?!!” And so on.
Ben, characteristically modest and shy, shuffled a bit and said, “Aww, I dunno. Just lucky, I guess...”. And smiled in his endearing way.
So the reporters are standing there. How the hell can you make a story out of humility!
Finally, one of them says, “Well, Ben, we see you out here all the time. You’re out here every day. You’re the first one on the course, and you’re the last one to leave!”
Ben looks up and smiles at the man. “Yeah. It seems like the more I practice, the luckier I get.”
I love that story, for a number of reasons.
1. It reminds me of the master.
2. It vividly portrays sincere humility.
3. And it perfectly describes the exquisite dance between grace and effort.
May the Blessings Be
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mouse from merced
Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
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the blessings are
I cannot believe my luck
Mouse (loves to dance)
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WBraun
climber
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There is no such thing as luck.
It looks like that because we can't see everything that Karma encompasses.
The gross materialists think there's no such thing as Karma.
They are st00pid :-)
Karma is nothing but pure simple physics for every action there is an equal reaction and opposite reaction.
Newton.
St00pid gross materialists make clueless claims all the time .....
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TomCochrane
Trad climber
Cascade Mountains and Monterey Bay
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Werner has a bit broader perspective than most of the other passengers
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OnsightOrGoHome
Trad climber
Fair Oaks
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We all know the roulette wheel can hit red 10 times straight (and it has....unfortunately I was doubling down on black). "Simple physics" can explain the mechanics of the result, but what explains the chance that one would start this betting scheme at the very beginning of a ten-red streak, and not a ten-black streak? Karma, the thunderous beauty beyond one's mental grasp, luck?
Maybe luck is just beating the odds. The odds vary based on your own knowledge of the true conditions and skills that will affect the result, both perceived odds and true (hidden) odds. Things can go sideways very quickly when perceived odds of success are much greater than true odds of success.
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7SacredPools
Trad climber
Ontario, Canada
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"johnokner" Damn fine pics! Any chance you'd list the routes?
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Maybe luck is just beating the odds.
you don't "beat" anything
the odds are the odds
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7SacredPools
Trad climber
Ontario, Canada
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I don't get the "blessings" thing. Implies some f**ked up dude doling out misfortune as well as good fortune.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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I think it is just a way of admitting that you survived a f*#kup, you rolled the dice and won when the odds suggested that you were likely not to have
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7SacredPools
Trad climber
Ontario, Canada
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I guess, but then here are those that extrapolate from an experience like that and think they were "saved" because they're special, or for a higher purpose. How come they never start an orphanage or something?
Don't tell my mother but I've made a few mistakes that could of got me killed.
No one was looking out for me, it was just dumb luck.
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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If it were a matter of luck I wouldn't be a rock climber. And not being interested in games of chance is also why I'm not an alpine climber.
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Jaybro
Social climber
Wolf City, Wyoming
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Just read through this
Larryhorton. You obviously just don't 'get' Dr Hartouni.
I really agree with Doninis last assessment.
That psycho chicken think was f*#king brilliant.
Gonna go watch them tear down my house, just my luck, gotta run a shuttle.e
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WyoRockMan
climber
Grizzlyville, WY
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EdH wrote:
Unrecognized here are the myriad of times we were unaware that we were in any peril at all, when chance was in play but we did not know. Once again, we say we we're "lucky." Who here that has walked the path along the southeast base of El Capitan didn't feel "lucky" that the wall that fell this past summer didn't fall on them? Somehow we were unaware of the risk. But just look around you in Yosemite Valley, it is filled in by tens of thousands of years of that exact thing happening.
Where does luck spring from? where does it go?
The more one identifies the otherwise unrecognized events, the luckier one would perceive themselves to be. Ex. I didn’t get struck by an asteroid, mauled by a bear, or have a tree branch fall on me today. Therefore, I’m very lucky. Typically(?) people go through life not acknowledging how infinitely full of good luck they are. The subject only comes up when one of the infinite vectors impacting our lives manifests itself into an actionable event. Sometimes we care enough to do a root cause analysis, but mostly we just chalk it up to "luck". One way or the other.
Luck doesn't go anywhere. DMT's "luck is an outcome" would make it non-transferable.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Typically(?) people go through life not acknowledging how infinitely full of good luck they are.
I think this is better put as the improbability of the life that they have lead.
Interestingly, if you believe in "luck" as dolled out by some agent(s) then you can count yourself as a part of the "in crowd," those on the outs are the unlucky ones. This somehow conveys "inalienable" privileges on the lucky.
Acknowledging one's good luck, and recognizing that "bad luck" isn't necessarily a sign of divine displeasure, or personal inadequacy, could change the way we view our world, and our society.
Alas, the superstitions we have inherited often conspire against a more balanced concept.
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hooblie
climber
from out where the anecdotes roam
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luck is invisible though it casts a shadow we call a hunch. inference reliability is the issue
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WBraun
climber
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How is it invisible when you can see its direct cause and effects ....
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hooblie
climber
from out where the anecdotes roam
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^^^ it takes a gross materialist ...
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OnsightOrGoHome
Trad climber
Fair Oaks
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Cause and effect explain the physical manifestation of results. Choices are made prior to the manifestation of the result, based on one's expected results. Maybe luck is in the decision process, not the result. If one knew what the result was to be, we would always make choices resulting in the winning side.
But what explains "when you roll the dice and won [or lost] when the odds suggested that you were likely not to have"? Even after accounting for knowledge, preparation, and skills, the chances of success/failure in our choices are never 100%, yet a result with only 5% chance of occurring does occur 5% of the time, sometimes with dire consequences, and we rarely would hesitate with 95% chance of success (we often even accept 50/50 odds). With all input factors applied equally, why are some of us in the 95% group, and others in the 5% group?
Per Merriam-Webster, Fate: the will or principle or determining cause by which things in general are believed to come to be as they are or events to happen as they do. Per Oxford, Fate: the development of events outside a person's control, as regarded as predetermined by a supernatural power.
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WBraun
climber
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Choices are made prior to the manifestation of the result.
Nope .... the result already manifested itself as birth in a gross physical material body
of which you received from your previous life according to the consciousness you developed back then.
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OnsightOrGoHome
Trad climber
Fair Oaks
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So my choices today mean nothing as my fate was sealed by my choices made in my previous life, which were sealed in my life prior to my last life, and so forth? It seems that the development of one's consciousness is affected by the choices we make today (resulting in unique experiences that only that specific choice would result in).
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WBraun
climber
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No
You can make a choice of staying in your material condition self or coming to your true self, ... free from all karmic reactions.
That is the real climb, not this illusionary dream of materialism.
We have that independent free will to choose .....
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Trump
climber
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In the reference class of human brains, I’m pretty certain that mine doesn’t work right.
I don’t really understand how we can believe in the improbability of the lives that we’re leading or have led. What other options are there, that we’re aware of, that we have evidence of existing outside of our heads?
We can come up in our heads with other scenarios and a billion things that had to go “right” - a billion ways that I had to be “lucky” in order to live this life. But what’s the probability that those things would happen? Seems to me like 0. What’s the probability that I would have and will live this life that I’m living? Seems to me like 1.
We can construct a billion scenarios that didn’t happen and theorize that well they could have happened!
But they didn’t.
And how do we explain that? We say (believe) that the reason that they happened were random chance - something that is unpredictable no matter how much information we have - rather than them being do to specific reasons that we just don’t understand. We say that they belong to a reference class of instances in which it’s impossible to tell the difference between the instances, rather than just that we don’t have the information/ability that would allow us to tell the differences.
And we might just be lucky to have a self-confirming belief in our awesome free will, a belief that also maybe coincidentally allows us to take the best advantage of our biggest evolutionary advantage - the ability to allow our behaviors to be guided by our beliefs. And we might just be lucky that sex feels so good.
But what’s the probability that water would boil at 212F? 1 in a million? 1 in a billion? Or just 1? What’s the probability that humans would evolve after 4 billion years? It happened. It also rained today.
I’m usually more interested in understanding the how/why of what actually happens in reality, than in what we believe could have happened, but didn’t happen. I guess especially with respect to what actually happens about the what/why/how people believe what we believe.
We seem to end up believing stuff like that this life that I’m living is incredibly improbable, when it seems like the probability (or maybe the best we can get - the plausibility) is 1. It happened. It’s happening. And yet here I am believing that it’s incredibly unlikely for reality to exist the way it does, even though reality is right in front of me existing the way it does.
I don’t get it. And I kind of would like to, but in a way that’s actually true, and not just a way that confirms my rightness and specialness for believing it. But it’s hard to tell the difference, without all of the information.
It often seems to me like we misunderstand the way things are (i.e. believe things that aren’t true) in ways that help us change things to be the way we want them to be. But we have to really honestly believe it first, even if it isn’t (yet) true. And that’s just kind of part of the magic of how we work. We don’t have wings to flap, but we do this belief thing instead.
And hey, the way those crazy kids are doing this belief thing nowadays got me elected! What’s the chance of that?!
Best to you all!
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Jaybro
Social climber
Wolf City, Wyoming
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I was lucky to not be in my house today when, This, happened!
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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^^^sad day...
...The Fry is going to be surprised to find it gone...
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Jaybro
Social climber
Wolf City, Wyoming
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Im sure he's taking it in from behind another window. its also raining...
He was seen departing the premises when the machines started, before I got there this morning ( had to drive a shuttle)
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Trump
climber
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“There is no logical material universe rational for how I could have survived this.”
You know it! We take incomplete information and convert it to complete information in our heads. And then, we just believe it. If I can’t see a way, it’s because there’s just no way, it’s not because I can’t see the way. I see everything! Ok, I guess I do have enough information to act according to my beliefs then.
That’s cool. Humans are cool.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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“There is no logical material universe rational for how I could have survived this.”
there is one: you're odds weren't as low as you thought...
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marmoting
Mountain climber
CA
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A theory that has fairly wide acceptance by physicists is that everything that can happen does happen, if not in this reality, then in a parallel one. If you accept this proposition, then you must conclude that the probability is “1” that the life you have led would happen as it has.
The confusion about the probability of your life occurring comes about from thinking about the probability of drawing your life from a basket of all possible realities. In that scenario, the probability of you living the exact life you have led is “0”. In reality, you had no more choice in which life you ended up with than you had choice in being born. Every other possible life you could have led is being led by some other variant of you, and none of them have any choice in the matter either. For every “decision” you’ve ever made, a variant of you has made the opposite “decision,” and lived a different timeline from you as a “result”.
We and all of our variants will live out every one of the possible timelines remaining in our lives. None of us knows what future is assigned to us, but that is the blessing. It allows us the illusion that we have agency to choose our future and to believe we’ll have good luck.
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WBraun
climber
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Karma and luck are NOT the goals of life at all ........
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Trump
climber
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“.. one: you’re odds ..”
I think we can make big mistakes, we make small mistakes. Sometimes we make more than one mistake at a time. Sometimes our mistakes aren’t really mistakes at all, just pieces of a bigger puzzle than the one we’re paying attention to.
Best again!
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larryhorton
Trad climber
NM
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Werner.
Truth not spoken in love is no truth at all.
What I've heard from you thus far, dating from long before this thread, is half truths, spoken in black and white moralism. No erg of love in sight—smiley faces, notwithstanding.
Spirituality, as taught by the Masters, is not moralism, it’s certainly not black and white, and it’s dripping with love—which is the whole point. Why would anyone even have an interest in spirituality if it did not deliver a love never before experienced and so utterly perfect that it dissolves untruth before our eye and changes us forever? Not emotional love, but the genuine, undivided Sound Current emanating from the supreme deity—and I’m not talking about what religions call God.
Confusion is rampant today—all over the world, SuperTopo included. Not everyone, but there are individuals here, genuinely seeking understanding. And you’re telling them they’re “st00pid”.
How helpful is that?
OnsightOrGoHome writes:
So my choices today mean nothing as my fate was sealed by my choices made in my previous life, which were sealed in my life prior to my last life, and so forth? It seems that the development of one’s consciousness is affected by the choices we make today (resulting in unique experiences that only that specific choice would result in).
This is an honest, sincere postulate. It’s a genuine effort to bring reason to what you’ve previously said, and what he’s trying to understand.
And your response?
No
Which isn’t even true. To assume that “the development of one’s consciousness is affected by the choices we make today (resulting in unique experiences that only that specific choice would result in)”, is absolutely correct. And you answer, No—end of story?
Yes, consciousness is only conferred by the grace of a genuine Sat Guru, but even the student/chela of such a Guru is going to make choices that move her/him closer or further from the third eye—for many years. And that distinction is the closest thing to ‘right and wrong’ that occurs in the higher planes.
Yes, we come into this life with a full plate from previous lives, and that list of karmas I listed earlier is what we’ll experience, but we will indeed be creating plenty more throughout this life, even if we’re on a bona fide Light and Sound path, already cruising above physical consciousness. Karma diminishes, but nonetheless persists all the way to realization of soul. And the ‘thing’ that eliminates it is—surprise—divine love.
What’s most important here is the perfection of karma and the lives we’re living. Each of us is exactly where we belong in our evolution—with a precision unimaginable to the mind. Are we going to badmouth people for where they’re at? Are we going to go around kicking plants because of the level of their consciousness?
Everyone is doing exactly what they need to do to get where they’re going, and no two of us—in the entire creation—will do it the same way or arrive at the same time. We’ll all go through the same steps, but we’ll do it our way, and the journey will have been absolutely perfect for each one. Solely by the grace of the Master.
A good friend of mine once observed, “We’ve all received the religious suppository and it wasn’t a pleasant experience.”
Amen.
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larryhorton
Trad climber
NM
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It often seems to me like we misunderstand the way things are (i.e. believe things that aren’t true) in ways that help us change things to be the way we want them to be. But we have to really honestly believe it first, even if it isn’t (yet) true. And that’s just kind of part of the magic of how we work. We don’t have wings to flap, but we do this belief thing instead.
We DO have a wing, but meeting a Godman is required to ignite it. When our infant wing is enlivened and joins His, we begin to soar.
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larryhorton
Trad climber
NM
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Acknowledging one's good luck, and recognizing that "bad luck" isn't necessarily a sign of divine displeasure, or personal inadequacy, could change the way we view our world, and our society.
Could, Ed, but like everything else, the world is functioning precisely as designed. Nice idea and reasonable sounding perspective. But it won’t change. It’s perfect the way it is.
Viewpoint, on the other hand—an aspect of soul—can definitely change, but society, not so much. Only the awakened soul will be transcending, free to move about the creation at will. All else is stuck in the level of its own existence, and will never exist anywhere else.
Take anger, for instance. Anger will always be anger. It will never be anything else. It can’t be changed. And it can only exist in the lower three planes. Ascend above those planes, and anger is nowhere in sight.
Then again, what was just described is not something mind is capable of doing. It’s only the mind, and can’t ascend beyond those three planes, either—thank God!
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Lambone
Big Wall climber
Ashland, Or
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Apr 10, 2018 - 04:59pm PT
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Last October I woke up on Pitch 3 of Zenyatta Mondatta to a rock bouncing off the portaledge and a pile of sand in my face.
We bailed.
2 days later, halfway up Zodiac we watched half of pitch 5 of ZM fall off and clibber our bivi spot at pitch 3 with house sized blocks.
Luck? Intuition? I dunno...a little bit of both I suppose.
Here is a selfie vid my Partner Chris took just after the rockfall. When I suggested we bail off ZM the day before he didn’t hesitate.
[Click to View YouTube Video]
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Apr 10, 2018 - 05:50pm PT
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Could, Ed, but like everything else, the world is functioning precisely as designed. Nice idea and reasonable sounding perspective. But it won’t change. It’s perfect the way it is.
everything is the way it is,
no design required.
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donini
Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
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Apr 10, 2018 - 05:57pm PT
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Good things happen, bad things too...neither can be attributed to luck, karma, prayers or good wishes even though many people draw comfort thinking otherwise.
Suck up and gain some control of events by work and preparation knowing that your best efforts don't always turn out the way you hoped.
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larryhorton
Trad climber
NM
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Apr 11, 2018 - 08:12am PT
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Ego contracts into the rut of separation—its natural state. Separation from everything—from God and Self, separation from truth, love, separation, even, from intelligence.
I’m such a sucker. When people start making noises suggesting a desire for understanding, I actually take them at their word!
Thanks for the reminder. Keeps the weeds out.
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toejahm
Trad climber
Chatsworth, CA
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Apr 11, 2018 - 12:09pm PT
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Thank you Ed and Donini,
You constantly remind me of the beauty in our species.
Ed, I'm a beginning portrait painter and interested in giving yours a shot. If you'd allow me the honor please email me a photo, the more tattered the better(you not the picture).ha I've attached a couple of recent sketches as pre-painting prep.
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toejahm
Trad climber
Chatsworth, CA
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Apr 11, 2018 - 12:24pm PT
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Ha,
Salma Hayek as Frida..I much prefer it your way.
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tradmanclimbs
Ice climber
Pomfert VT
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Topic Author's Reply - Apr 11, 2018 - 03:17pm PT
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what about illness. try to wash you hands and eat healthy. take all kinds of supplements and get the flu anyways.... Just got done with the real nasty Flue and now came down with sore throat and runny nose......
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climbski2
Mountain climber
The Ocean
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Apr 11, 2018 - 07:31pm PT
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There is that little paranoid voice in your head sometimes. Something nagging at you telling you you're not comfortable. You're not sure why you're not comfortable. consciously you look at it and you think this is okay no problem. But underneath you're unusually worried and concerned about something you cannot identify consciously.
Listening to that has saved my life. I've heard that that has saved other people's life. I think it's the subconscious putting a bunch of factors together and telling you you're missing something.
Always remember...Backing off rarely gets you killed... Even if it doesn't give you bragging rights or satisfaction
Luck?
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Lambone
Big Wall climber
Ashland, Or
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Apr 11, 2018 - 09:12pm PT
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climb2ski,
That’s exactly what I experienced on ZM in my post up above...
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F
climber
away from the ground
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Apr 11, 2018 - 09:28pm PT
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Dude, tradmom... it might be AIDS....
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tradmanclimbs
Ice climber
Pomfert VT
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Topic Author's Reply - Apr 12, 2018 - 03:07am PT
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no deal F. had the test last summer. all good.
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Trump
climber
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Apr 13, 2018 - 04:35pm PT
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“listen to inner voice”
Yea I remember, as the white parent of a black child, hearing a sound on my front porch at 1 am and turning on the light and opening the door, only to have my inner voice tell my eyes and brain to clearly see a black man sprinting off with my planter! When I called the cops and they asked the race, I had to consciously lie and tell them I didn’t know. Turns out the next morning when we figured out who did it and they admitted it, it was a white college kid.
Yea our inner voices are there to work to our advantage, just not always in ways that we notice, or would approve of, if we did notice. Sometimes our self-advantageous inner voice tells us lies, and sometimes the way it works isn’t so lucky for other people.
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Trump
climber
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Apr 13, 2018 - 04:50pm PT
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Thanks Larry.
Yea I think we’re all pretty convinced that we know the one true truth, and if other people don’t believe it, they’re just wrong, or not actually trying to understand the awesomeness of the truth that we have so clearly communicated to them. Don’t be discouraged - it’s kind (of anyone) to try to do it, even if the doing it doesn’t work the way we, with our clear understanding of how it all works, believe it should work.
Other people - they do it their way, and that’s cool. I, for one, honestly have learned to appreciate at least a little of the duck’s wisdom, and embarrassingly enough, he’s helped me understand things about myself and other people, even if maybe I, with my awesome understanding, didn’t believe it should.
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Trump
climber
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Apr 13, 2018 - 05:19pm PT
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Thanks for your story lambone!
I like to try to understand how we understand these kinds of things more specifically.
You woke up on pitch 3 (let’s call that day 1) with sand and rocks in your face. You bailed.
Then 2 days later (on day 3), you saw a rockfall fall from pitch 5 onto the bivi at pitch 3 where you had woken up with sand in your face.
But you’re saying that your partner agreed to bail the day before the rockfall (which would have been day 2), not two days before the rockfall (day 1, when you woke up with sand in your face)? Is that right, or just an off-by-one error in the storytelling?
If that is right, what did you do on day 1? Did you just stay there in the path of the future rockfall (that had been “predicted” to you by the sand in the face) all day, and then you bailed the next day?
What do you think was the lucky thing that you avoided?
Would the rocks have come dislodged if you had tried to climb pitch 5 two days before they became dislodged? If so, what evidence do we rely on to tell us that’s true? And if that’s the lucky thing that you avoided, what difference does it make (i.e. why is it part of the story we tell ourselves) that the rocks hit the bivi spot on pitch 3 where you had been bivied two days earlier?
Or if you hadn’t decided to bail after waking up with sand in your face, would you have still been at the bivi spot of pitch 3 two days later when the rocks hit it? Would you not have climbed off that bivi spot in those two days?
Would you have been just as lucky to have not been hit by that rockfall if you had been at the bivi spot two months or two years before the rockfall, rather than having been there two days before the rockfall? Do you think that having seen the rockfall hit the bivi spot makes you feel luckier than if you didn’t know about the rockfall at all?
To me it seems like the only way for you to have been killed in that rockfall was for you to be there when the rockfall happened. And you weren’t. Part of the reason you weren’t was because you got some information in the form of sand and rocks in your face that led you to form a belief that the rocks above were unstable. I expect that you knew all along that you didn’t really know whether or not those rocks were going to fall and kill you from the start, but that it was plausible to you that they might. Maybe the lucky thing was that the sand fell in your face.
I wasn’t there and didn’t get killed in the rockfall either, but for other reasons.
Thanks!
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larryhorton
Trad climber
NM
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Apr 14, 2018 - 11:59am PT
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That’s a pretty long string of astute observations, Trump. Seasoned with wisdom, humility, and sincerity.
The ‘inner voices’ story is a profound experience, but a note of caution:
...our inner voices are there to work to our advantage, just not always in ways that we notice, or would approve of, if we did notice’.
On one level, that’s true. But as we’re making our way up the ladder, that could be an overly generous perception of ‘inner voices’. It’s pretty clear that you’re an unusually generous guy, but closer examination of the voices might be a profitable contemplation—which I imagine you’re continuing to do.
The first voice, which had you perceiving a black man, was a very different voice than the one that chose to ‘lie’ about the race of the man you witnessed stealing your planter. One was clearly a representation of truth—the other, untruth. As I’m sure you know, we have countless unknown distortions tucked away in levels of the mind. Just recognizing its origin as the mind should let us know it’s out to cut our spiritual throat.
The unmistakable hallmarks of the second voice are of an entirely different nature, and it’s something we don’t want to ignore. (Ha! The Master just showed me the obvious, but previously unnoticed brotherhood between ‘ignore’ and ‘ignorance’.)
Which brings me to the point at which you sensed an uncertainty in my last comment. What you perceived was, indeed, uncertainty, but not the ones you thought. Dispensing spiritual treasures on a public forum like this is a violation of spiritual principle, and can carry heavy, unwanted costs to the devoted student. Gifting these gems of understanding is the exclusive purview of the Sat Guru, and disrespecting that principle can easily cross the line into total lack of discrimination.
It’s a razor’s edge, and the uncertainty you picked up from the previous comment are a reflection of that reality. Only a Godman can—and should—broach this challenge with certainty.
So. I’ll just say, universes separate the first ‘voice’ from the second. The divine wisdom hidden between the two should be enough to take an initiated seeker all the way home.
Milk it.
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WBraun
climber
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Apr 14, 2018 - 04:32pm PT
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Dispensing spiritual treasures on a public forum like this is a violation of spiritual principle, and can carry heavy, unwanted costs to the devoted student.
Oh .... you're so full of sh!t .....
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toejahm
Trad climber
Chatsworth, CA
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Apr 14, 2018 - 09:03pm PT
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Wbraun,
Not that it matters, but I think Larryhorton and Trump are the same person...something about the writing style and the vibe each persona displays. imho
Peace,
Kenny
Funny, I've spent some time contemplating the luck factor in my rudimentry analysis. I feel less than 50% sure of myself, so if I'm right I believe a "little luck" may have gotten some action here.
kr
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larryhorton
Trad climber
NM
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Apr 14, 2018 - 09:37pm PT
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Oh .... you're so full of sh!t .....
That’s right, Werner. At least 30 or 40 times, on a good day.
And I’m delighted to have a Master Who lovingly keeps me informed.
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Lambone
Big Wall climber
Ashland, Or
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Apr 15, 2018 - 09:49am PT
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Hi Trump,
Sorry for the confusion bro. Here’s how it went down.
-5:30am p3 ZM a rock bounced off the porta-ledge followed by a pile of sand.
-we didn’t rush to bail. But instead considered our options over coffee and tried to process the idea of bailing. (In hindsight we should have gotten the f*#k out of there ASAP) After hemming and hawing about being a couple of pussies, bailing seemed like the right thing to do so we rapped off the route with our kit that morning. It took a few hours to get down safely.
-we had 7 days of time allotted for the climb and we were still keen on getting on El Cap so we left our gear at the base under the boulders.
-went back to the meadow and spent the day resting and chatting with monkeys.
 Inspired by beers and some energetic young guns, we hatched a plan to climb Zodiac in a push with a 4 man team.
-next day we racked and hiked back up to fix 2 pitches of Zod
-blasted up Zod at 3am
-at about 4:30-5pm that evening we were up to pitch 9 on Zodiac. We heard the rumble and saw the huge blocks fall off pitch 5 of ZM.
So the big rockfall happened a day in a half after that chunk of rock and sand scared us off the route. We were well out of the way on Zodiac.
There was however a Euro soloist fixing on the first pitch of ZM when the rockfall happened. I heard from Tom that the house size boulders flew right over his head and he was unharmed. Needless to say he bailed.
This was all about two weeks after the big “whale” fell off on Waterfall route. And just a couple days after another rock fall on p2 of Tangerine trip.
El Cap seemed awake and angry. A spooky season up there!
That’s me down there in the green helmet/red jacket. I had a clear view of the rockfall and had climbed ZM and Shortest Straw before so I knew exactly which feature fell off. The loose pillar directly above the p5 anchors that is shown in the Topo with A3r hooks to 5.9 loose free climbing. I suspect that is all gone.
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larryhorton
Trad climber
NM
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Apr 15, 2018 - 01:19pm PT
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Great story, Lambone. What I got out of it this time was a more succinct definition of ‘luck’—for me, of course.
As I mentioned to Tom several pages back in discussing his experience, I, too, have experienced obscene degrees of protection all my life. As I also said then, it took coming face to face with a manifestation of the power behind that protection, to bring it to an infant recognition which has developed and blossomed into undeniable certainty through continued association. An indispensable component of the development of that certainty has been a concurrent awakening and development of the same, latent spark that resides within all human beings.
By ‘same spark’, I’m referring to the fact that Soul, the Master, the Sound Current, and the supreme deity are all composed of the same essence. When the Master and His Sound Current ignite the spark, the journey begins—the drop to the ocean.
Mind/ego, on the other hand, channels the universal mind power, as it always has and always will. This power is the antithesis of Soul, Master, Sound Current, and the Divine. A generous, yet truthful way of expressing that, is that the universal mind power is a powerful guard to the market of love. If the soul truly desires to be reunited with its own divinity, it has to want it really, really badly, and recruit a control and pinpointedness beyond imagination, Jim. That desire defines the epitome of sincerity. Because mind/ego will be doing all in its considerable power (after all, it rules the entire, lower three planes) to thwart, hide, delay, mislead, confuse, and divert, soul from its mission.
If the hapless soul is in the company of a Sat Guru, it’s ‘chances’ of success instantly expand exponentially. Not that it’s a done deal. Meeting a Sat Guru doesn’t guarantee anything—it’s merely the ‘opportunity of a lifetime’.
So, from that qualified vantage point, I would say:
Luck, is the mind/ego’s refusal to admit the presence of the divine within.
Human’s are far more comfortable assigning Godhood to, say, a piece of rock (which is merely experiencing entropy) than to divinity, which quietly resides in their own cranium.
By the way, Lambone, that huge, clean, white triangle of granite above your heads—surrounded by darker, more sinister rock. What do you suppose at one time occupied that space where the white granite now resides? Truth continually places itself directly in front of our faces. As a chela I know says, whaddaya want, a PHONE CALL?!!!!
It’s when we recognize the non-existence of luck, that our ‘fortune’ begins to skyrocket.
Does that appease your sensitivities, Werner?
I have no fear of speaking the truth. I have serious concerns about offending the Master and Divine Will.
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