Discussion Topic |
|
This thread has been locked |
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
|
Cruise missiles would get only a percentage
Yeah, like 90%. And its really hard to fire yer POS gun when the doors
are blasted along with yer ammo. And if you go outside for a few minutes
the drones and A-10's will have a field day. Remember, there won't be
radar installation or C&C center one left after the first 10 minutes. You
don't really think the Pentagon doesn't have this gamed to the second, do
you? Every target is programmed by priority. It will be a slaughter. I
say 10,000 S Korean casualties and 100,000 N Korean troops within the
first couple of hours. They'll be running south with white hankys flying
by the tens of thousands, after they slaughter their officers.
Here's some numbers. There is about 20 miles, to be generous, of the border
where the N Koreans could have artillery that could reach the northern parts
of Seoul. If the US Navy uses 400 cruise missiles, about 10% of their
inventory, that would be 20 missiles per mile, or one every 250 feet. Even if
a gun is bunkered there is going to be SERIOUS damage to the bunker. Then
the A-10's and F-18's come in to clean up anybody stoopid enough to be
above ground.
|
|
High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
|
|
Yeah, why not?
Why not move the whole city of Seoul?
Best case scenario, say 100 yrs from now... two Seouls instead of one.
Wiki says artillery batteries have a max range of... 20-50 miles.
Interesting idea. Heard it here first.
Why not? As Hubbard pointed out, after all we are talking about war scenarios in a war context.
|
|
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
|
Wiki says artillery batteries have a max range of... 20-50 miles.
Wiki people smoke crack? 20 miles is probably 5 miles beyond the range of
most of those POS guns. And the bigger the gun the better the target it is.
|
|
High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
|
|
So that's even better, no?
Looks like S Korea has a 200 300 mile margin within which to work/build.
Heck, why not three Seouls?! South Korea could out-commercialize its opponent. In the Shenzhen, China spirit, too! lol
If we're already taking part in the Acceptance / Patience phase, why not? Is there a steelman (cf: strawman) argument against? If so, let's hear it.
The whole project could be construed a) as creative problem solving and b) as taking the high road ("when they go low, we go high").
...
re: tactical nuclear possibilities
"Specifically on the Korean peninsula with a nuclear armed North Korea facing off against a NPT compliant South Korea there have been calls to request a return of US owned and operated short range low yield nuclear weapons, nomenclatured as tactical by the US military, to provide a local strategic deterrent to the North's growing domestically produced nuclear arsenal and delivery systems."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon
re: NPT
"As of August 2016, 191 states have adhered to the treaty, though North Korea, which acceded in 1985 but never came into compliance, announced its withdrawal from the NPT in 2003, following detonation of nuclear devices in violation of core obligations."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons
|
|
Hubbard
climber
San Diego
|
|
If Reilly is right then all the better. I am a conservative fog of war kind of person. Hoping for the best doesn't come easy for me. I have no problem using two ropes or backing up the pro before a big run-out. It's more of a hassle obviously. I wish I could free-solo El Cap.
|
|
Ksolem
Trad climber
Monrovia, California
|
|
I wouldn't want to be one of the 30K+ American soldiers deployed along the DMZ, and referred to as the "trip wire."
|
|
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
|
^^^ True, but unless China steps in and pulls the plug on Phat Boy I don't
see a sanitary solution to this. Guys like him are at heart nihilists and
that's related to annihilate, for all intents and purposes. We've had
65 years of wannabe Neville Chamberlains 'working' on this, to what end?
|
|
jgill
Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
|
|
Is there any indication Un's top-ranking military leaders would not continue his policies were he out of the picture? That may be wishful thinking.
|
|
StahlBro
Trad climber
San Diego, CA
|
|
China will not accept a unified Korean penisula friendly to the west. Trump needs to use his magical deal making powers to convince China to take Kim out and replace him with a Chinese stooge. Maybe Putin can give them tips.
|
|
Studly
Trad climber
WA
|
|
Whoa, say hey DMT, did I touch a nerve or what?
I guess North Korea is a little paranoid towards us, since we killed off half the country and leveled their cities in the Korean War because they...hmm...errrr...not sure why we had to kill them and bomb them, but Im sure there is a really good reason, maybe they hated our freedom, and we just couldn't have that. But can you really blame them for trying to protect themselves when they already been laid waste to once before? Even a cornered rat will fight back if you trap it.
|
|
Hubbard
climber
San Diego
|
|
Studly, in the 1951-53 war, it was started when the North attacked the South. The united nations were involved. It was not America being brash. Turkey was there and all the common wealth nations. We pushed the North back North. It could have ended right there but Macarthur the famous WW2 general pushed on all the way to the border of China at the Yalu river. That is when the Chinese attacked, not before. As Stahlbro pointed out; the Chinese couldn't have us right on the border with Macarthur threatening to drive on to the Chinese capitol. US president Truman relieved Macarthur at this point. The Chinese attacked with massive human waves of lightly armed soldiers and this worked to push the UN forces back South to where they are now. The whole thing stalemated and has been like that ever since. Of note is that South Korea is a modern powerhouse while the North is a shithole. That is the difference between American sponsorship or Russian/ Chinese scraps. As for now and the future, it is a big question.
|
|
healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
|
|
Personally I suspect 400 cruise missiles would in no way prevent N Korea's frontline forces from completely leveling Seoul. About the only potentially effective military option I see would be an attempt at decapitating their leadership.
Of note is that South Korea is a modern powerhouse while the North is a shithole
The whole of N Korea is a DMZ between us and the Chinese and, as such, the Chinese never had much interest in investing in the place.
|
|
crankster
Trad climber
No. Tahoe
|
|
There is no military option save war, likely nuclear. Get used to it. The inexperience clown in the WH is finding that out.
|
|
healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
|
|
That's likely the case (the war part, not the nuclear), but decapitation offers at least a slim opportunity for some calmer heads to prevail. As far as the nuclear option goes, I'd be very surprised if they have any deployed operational nukes because a) they're not there yet in terms of nukes deployable as warheads and b) at the rate dear leader been murdering generals I'd guess he definitely doesn't trust anyone enough to hand off that set of keys. There is a remote possibility he has a couple test-like bombs pre-placed in a tunnel somewhere, but that's technically quite dodgy and it's again unlikely he'd trust anyone with the keys.
|
|
Yury
Mountain climber
T.O.
|
|
Thank you kunlun_shan for clarifying that a smuggled cell phone was used near the border of China.
According to this article:
“Some people are asking why he was killed just because of the money thing, but there are a few who were close to him and his wife, and they say it was because he had been helping defections.”
When reading and validating stories about North Korea I ask a question "What would Stalin, Mao, Fidel do in a similar situation?"
You need to understand that these regimes present a story about helping people.
So they can't just kill a person for violation of a phone calls rule.
This person need to commit "real" offense like helping defectors or sharing sensitive defence information or spreading lies about "beautiful Korean life".
|
|
Yury
Mountain climber
T.O.
|
|
Reilly
^^^ True, but unless China steps in and pulls the plug on Phat Boy I don't
see a sanitary solution to this. Reily, do you really believe that Chinese prefer having US troops stationed near their border rather than current North Korean regime?
I do not think so.
Also you need to know that China from historical statistical point of view is very peaceful country.
How many direct invasions by Chinese do you recall e.g. in the last century?
So direct military invasion to overthrow the current Pyongyang regime is not consistent with Chinese way of doing business.
|
|
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
|
Also you need to know that China from historical statistical point of view is very peaceful country.
I don't know why I need to know that except for it being your premise for a flawed argument.
The Tibetans, Indians, Vietnamese, Phillipinos, and Russians might disagree with you. We'll
agree to overlook their coming into the Korean War on the side of the aggressors.
You also misread my statement about 'pulling the plug' on Phat Boy. The N Korean economy,
if you can call it that, exists at the pleasure of Chairman Xi. He can turn the oil spigot off in a
Beijing Minute, no 'invasion' necessary. They also get a goodly amount courtesy of yer buddy
Volodya Putin. Chairman Xi can also order his minions to cease and desist abetting Phatty
in many other economic endeavors, that is if Ji wanted to run a "very peaceful country."
Can you say Spratly Islands?
re oil imports from China and Russia:
http://www.nkeconwatch.com/category/energy/oil/
|
|
kunlun_shan
Mountain climber
SF, CA
|
|
How many direct invasions by Chinese do you recall e.g. in the last century?
Two, not including the territory around the Spratly Islands. Tibet was invaded in 1950, though Chinese control was not very firmly established. There was heavy resistance and guerrilla warfare broke out around 1956 in Aamdo (now called "Qinghai Province") with nomadic tribesman, who were always somewhat independent from Lhasa. As we all know, the Dala Lama fled Tibet in 1959 and Tibet became "Xizang Province".
The PLA also established control over what's now called "Xinjiang Province", in the early 1950s. Depending on one's view of history, the far western regions of China, beyond the end of the Great Wall, and the outpost of Dunhuang, were NOT part of China. Talk to any Uighur about this (preferably in Turkish based language), or other central Asian "minority". China now includes all of these peoples in their vision of a unified China, but establishment of their current borders is a relatively modern event.
|
|
MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
|
|
I think Reilly said that the North Korea’s gun placements are all in bunkers. I served just behind the DMZ in artillery, about 11 clicks away. From Seoul to the DMZ is about 35 miles or so, if memory serves me well. Some guns can reach that far, but most can’t with reliable accuracy. The U.S. and NATO forces have updated 155mm howitzers that have reached out 22 miles operationally, but It’s doubtful that NK has that kind of technology. Tactical missiles are more likely the armament that NK would use at that distance, and they aren’t likely to be accurate either. The problem with hard placements for artillery is flanking by enemy forces.
When I served in Korea long ago, our guns were also hard placed into concrete firing positions, aimed at bridges. If NK came south, it was our job to throw 3-10 rounds in the guns, hook up the guns to deuce-and-a-halfs, and run like hell south. We would regroup south of Seoul for the inevitable territory regain. Of course Seoul would be razed aflame, but the final outcome was always clear.
Many people would die. It would all be so very stupid.
|
|
|
SuperTopo on the Web
|
Let us know!