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DonC
climber
CA
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organizations use different methods to determine what is an El Nino year. For NOAA generally its any year where average temps at certain southern ocean buoys are .9 degrees greater than average. Of the 23 El Nino years in the last 6 decades, 1/3 bring less than average rain, 1/3 average, and 1/3 greater than average.
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10b4me
Mountain climber
Retired
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organizations use different methods to determine what is an El Nino year. For NOAA generally its any year where average temps at certain southern ocean buoys are .9 degrees greater than average. Of the 23 El Nino years in the last 6 decades, 1/3 bring less than average rain, 1/3 average, and 1/3 greater than average.
Except that Bill Patzert, climatologist at JPL, said there was a ninety-five percent chance that there would be above average precipitation. Granted the winter isn't over yet, but the rainy season in SoCal usually ends about the first of April.
Last I read was that rainfall in the southern part of the state was eighty percent of normal.
If Patzert's prediction doesn't come to fruition, he will have some 'splaining to do.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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I'm gonna short El Niņo stock.
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apogee
climber
Technically expert, safe belayer, can lead if easy
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johntp
Trad climber
socal
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El Nino is a bust.
Nothing to see here, move along.
Almost 90 F in OC today.
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F10
Trad climber
Bishop
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73 in Bishop today, wonderful climbing weather. Come on, where's winter ?? Let's get some snow in the mountains.
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Yinzer
Trad climber
Los Angeles, CA
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we all feared it wouldn't really happen : (
praying for snow. this summer is going to be brutal.
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Contractor
Boulder climber
CA
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Feb 10, 2016 - 06:26am PT
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This is a gambling ship that was wrecked during a storm in the 30's on our local beach.
It hasn't been this exposed since the 1983 El Nino event and most winters you never know it's there.
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Gunkie
climber
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Feb 10, 2016 - 08:32am PT
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Just came back east from surfing La Jolla Shores/Scripps, Black's, and Del Mar this past weekend. Nice waves, even got cleaned by a canyon set at Black's. My 13 year old son thought that was just awesome.
Plus, the east coast has been getting lit up with good surf this season.
I like this El Nino so far and it seems generally better than the 1998 El Nino in terms of surfing conditions on both coasts.
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brotherbbock
Trad climber
Alta Loma, CA
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Feb 10, 2016 - 09:42am PT
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El Nino is definitely giving us surfers some pretty consistent sizable waves. We may not be getting so much rain here in so-cal but El Nino is out there and working.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Feb 10, 2016 - 04:03pm PT
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You guys are assuming that El Nino is responsible for some swells but that
seems an unfounded assumption.
THIS is why any precip is going far to the north of California for a while.
That High of 1036 mb parked over the Great Basin is extremely high (1013 being normal)
and it ain't budging.
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apogee
climber
Technically expert, safe belayer, can lead if easy
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Feb 10, 2016 - 06:00pm PT
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Damn NOAA weather forecasters.
Obviously a bunch of potsmoking, irresponsible liberal gov't lackeys.
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johntp
Trad climber
socal
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Feb 11, 2016 - 06:37am PT
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When folks are saying El Niņo is a bust, I think they are referring to all the table pounding and "95% chance of floods" commentary.
We have had squat for rain in socal.
We'll see what happens in the next few months.
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pyro
Big Wall climber
Calabasas
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Feb 11, 2016 - 06:41am PT
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How many more weeks?
Not that many before el nino is over.. total bust
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dirtbag
climber
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Topic Author's Reply - Feb 11, 2016 - 06:45am PT
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It's still too early to deem it el busto. El Niņo-related rainfall typically occurs late in the season.
But, it's not looking good.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Feb 11, 2016 - 01:50pm PT
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ALL of North America is one big high! Fuggetabout El Nino!
Those highs are like a wall!
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10b4me
Mountain climber
Retired
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Feb 17, 2016 - 08:27am PT
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I thought that one of the aspects of El Niņo, besides a wetter southwest, was a warmer, and drier northeast. Well, we see how that's working out.
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