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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Oct 25, 2013 - 12:01pm PT
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Nice post Ed:
Ron Anderson, the models weren't used to predict an "ice free arctic," a projection of a time series, with carefully chosen set of data was used to extrapolate that time series to zero ice extent...
I'm wondering if Ron will read this enough times to understand what it
actually means.
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nature
climber
Boulder, CO
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Oct 25, 2013 - 12:03pm PT
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so their core starts at MIS 7. No surprise on 5e.
Winds up? You mean laughs at him?
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Oct 25, 2013 - 12:04pm PT
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nature, that is so friggin' hilarious, now I'll never get the image of a clown car out of my mind. Priceless ;0
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raymond phule
climber
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Oct 25, 2013 - 12:17pm PT
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Now we have a prediction of 2040 being the ice free year for the arctic. Lets see here,, that means that the AGW side now has 27 more years of FUNDING!
It was clear from the article that you read that most scientists did believe in an ice free arctic between something like 2030 and 2100 and not the 2013 projection. That article where written 2007 I believe.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Oct 25, 2013 - 12:23pm PT
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The graph that baffles Anderson. Too many colors to comprehend.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Oct 25, 2013 - 12:28pm PT
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2011? That means it doesn't even include the drops after 2011 and as the chief learned, the last data point hardly breaks a 30 year trend.
Look closer and focus, Anderson.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Oct 25, 2013 - 12:39pm PT
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Here's how the process works:
(1) There's the science. A new paleoclimate paper based on new data from the Canadian Arctic expands what is known about past climate in that region. Although the data are regional, the general findings fit well with what other studies using different data have already established -- that recent Arctic warming is exceptional, for at least several thousand years. But Miller et al. are able to take things farther back with their vegetation/ice front measurements -- at least to a radiocarbon age limit of 44ka, and by comparison to Greenland ice cores very possibly 120ka (their write-up conservatively emphasizes the "at least" point).
(2) Now comes the spin. Denialists perceive this finding, like almost all recent paleoclimatology, as a challenge to their political beliefs -- and those political beliefs are so real to them they just *know* the science can't be true. Many are scientifically illiterate as demonstrated so comically here over the past few days. So they can't yet articulate why the study is wrong, they just know it must be.
(3) They need the bloggers to tell them why. Within hours to a few days, denialist bloggers will supply their fan base with sciency-sounding talking points to reassure them one more time that the science can be ignored, their prejudices were right all along.
(4) When that happens, we'll see those bloggers' talking points repeated right here --with or without credit, and by people who already showed they could not understand even the paper's abstract.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Oct 25, 2013 - 12:40pm PT
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Anderson, notice all the points after 2011 that are lower in each group and are in line with the trend. Only 1 point is higher.
I see you share The Chiefs view, that the last data point invalidates a 30 year trend.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Oct 25, 2013 - 12:45pm PT
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LOL, deny, deny, deny.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Oct 25, 2013 - 12:45pm PT
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Very Well said,Chiloe!
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Oct 25, 2013 - 12:56pm PT
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Okay i'll be popping in occasionally, between tasks as I work on my sons list of to dos and prepare everything here for the 6 plus month of freeze before leaving to NV for most of the winter.
Anyway Ed asks for criteria, so here it is- Photographic documentation of sample gatherings, samples must be in-situ complete with soils also radiocarbon dated instead of merely attached to rock transported and deposited on lateral moraines, optical luminescence dating to verify last exposure to light, samples from many than other glacial masses separated by at least tens of miles, replication of results from areas surrounding the entire arctic, evidence that in prior interglaciation periods and after 11,500 years glaciers didn't likewise recede, validation that all natural climate change mechanisms have been identified, properly quantified, eliminated from a major role in causation, leaving CO2 forcing as the only possible cause. Among many other criteria
I caution you guys that there are many, many Arctic climate reconstructions from around the globe showing temps were warmer in the MWP, RWP, and HCO.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Oct 25, 2013 - 01:18pm PT
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Anyway Ed asks for criteria, so here it is- Photographic documentation of sample gatherings, samples must be in-situ complete with soils also radiocarbon dated instead of merely attached to rock transported and deposited on lateral moraines, optical luminescence dating to verify last exposure to light, samples from many than other glacial masses separated by at least tens of miles, replication of results from areas surrounding the entire arctic, evidence that in prior interglaciation periods and after 11,500 years glaciers didn't likewise recede, validation that all natural climate change mechanisms have been identified, properly quantified, eliminated from a major role in causation, leaving CO2 forcing as the only possible cause. Among many other criteria
Rick builds a wall around his politics so that no unwanted science can possibly get through. And if it does there's always those "many other criteria."
I caution you guys that there are many, many Arctic climate reconstructions from around the globe showing temps were warmer in the MWP, RWP, and HCO.
Cite a few you think are best, Rick. And explain how they met the criteria you just listed.
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BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
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Oct 25, 2013 - 01:51pm PT
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This thread is very much like arguing evolution with a fervent creationist. They cherry pick and mis characterize the facts because evolution simply CANNOT be true. You know, God did it, so we can't be wrong.
Those who won't even consider AGW, even when a zillion pages of work hits them in the forehead, because their ideology simply cannot allow it.
I could also compare it to UFO abductions.
Keep an open mind, everybody. If you aren't smart enough to go through the data, then listen to somebody who is.
Bad science doesn't last too long. The fact that this science has been on solid ground for two decades, despite intense political pressure, says something. I'd hate to work in this field. Your email inbox probably has 500 emails a day from lay scientists who don't have a background to even understand your work.
We rarely publish in the oil business. We will fund university research, but a newbie with a masters degree has to be taught for about five more years to be productive.
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nature
climber
Boulder, CO
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Oct 25, 2013 - 01:55pm PT
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that pretty much nails it, Base.
I mean... if Rong Anderson was on my side of the argument, unless it was forest fires, I'd be looking at the other side thinking they are probably onto something.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Oct 25, 2013 - 02:04pm PT
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True, we are only 95% sure that man has caused most of the warming in the last 50 years.
What's your point again?
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Oct 25, 2013 - 02:06pm PT
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i saw and watched bad science last long enough to close mills and make many a hard worker unemployed.
This guy has seen and watched some bad science too, coincidence?
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nature
climber
Boulder, CO
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Oct 25, 2013 - 02:14pm PT
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fine ron. i stand corrected. but I could add all that you listed and it would say the same thing.
you got my point regardless.
and I stand by my point.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Oct 25, 2013 - 02:16pm PT
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http://www.denverpost.com/recommended/ci_24379351Hey Ron,Is it really to hard to post a link?
Or do you purposely misinform.
I like you Ron,but I do not know if I can believe anything you say,ideology aside.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Oct 25, 2013 - 02:34pm PT
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And ive NEVER disagreed that man isnt contributing pollutants. Nor have i ever disagreed that RESPONSIBLE actions to clean air water and lands arent a good thing. I spent a good chunk of my life working in the field to do those exact things- be a steward to our lands air and water.
NOT saying those arent a baby step in a right direction either, but FAR from a RESPONSIBLE solution.
Thanks for your contradiction!
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Brandon-
climber
The Granite State.
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Oct 25, 2013 - 02:56pm PT
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The Black Rock Desert is the largest of it's type in the northern hemisphere. A solar installation wouldn't affect Burning Man whatsoever.
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