Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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The Chief

climber
Climber from the Land Mongols under the Whites
Jun 29, 2013 - 08:45am PT
climate is going crazy with extreme weather events all around...hate to see the heat wave in the west with the fire season already in full swing...

It is called Summer. Unbelievable huh. Waiting for some climate researcher to have a peer reviewed paper that GCC is now the cause of the Seasons. Watch.


you want to cherry pick a year to compare to, be my guest...

Now how big is that "Black Kettle" of yours ED?
dirtbag

climber
Jun 29, 2013 - 09:59am PT
^^^^^^^^^ ^^^^^^^^



Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Jun 29, 2013 - 10:44am PT
Mtn Lion the things i speak of towards forestry are well known now. Backed by thirty some years of first hand study and observance. Theres bldngs full worth of literature, papers, studies so on and so forth in regards to forestry. 60% of all of it out there is pure horse excretion. I could post up many "papers" but theres no point to that. As its common knowledge these days. As much as folks talk about doing nothing to help CC, so goes our countries forests as well. Restrictions levied by govt through eco group pressure and politics has stifled our forests in a very negative manner.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
And every fool knows, a dog needs a home, and...
Jun 29, 2013 - 10:48am PT
http://www.sacbee.com/2013/06/29/5533503/califs-sierra-a-living-lab-for.html

SEQUOIA NATIONAL FOREST, Calif. -- In parts of California's Sierra Nevada, marshy meadows are going dry, wildflowers are blooming earlier and glaciers are melting into ice fields.

Scientists also are predicting the optimal temperature zone for giant sequoias will rise hundreds and hundreds of feet, leaving trees at risk of dying over the next 100 years.

As indicators point toward a warming climate, scientists across 4 million acres of federally protected land are noting changes affecting everything from the massive trees that can grow to more than two-dozen feet across to the tiny, hamsterlike pika. But what the changes mean and whether humans should do anything to intervene are sources of disagreement among land managers.

"That's the tricky part of the debate: If humans are causing warming, does that obligate us under the laws of the National Park Service to try to counteract those effects?" said Nate Stephenson, a research ecologist with the U.S. Geological Survey.

"How do you adapt to a changing climate if you're a national park?" added Stephenson, who is 30 years into a study of trees in the largest wilderness in the continental U.S., Sequoia-Kings Canyon National Park.

Since 1895, the average temperature across California has increased by 1.7 degrees, and experts say the most visible effects of that warming occur within the Sierra Nevada, where low temperatures are rising and precipitation increasingly falls as rain rather than snow. Some models show noncoastal California warming by 2.7 degrees between 2000 and 2050, one of many reasons President Obama pledged last week to use executive powers to cut carbon pollution.

The state's two largest rivers - the Sacramento and San Joaquin - originate in the Sierra. The range also is home to Lake Tahoe, the largest alpine lake in North America; Mount Whitney, the highest peak in the Lower 48; and the nation's only groves of giant sequoias, the largest living things on earth.

There are mounting concerns about the beloved sequoias, whose sprawling, 10-foot-deep root systems make them especially vulnerable to drought and heat.

Because the trees exist only in such a small region, scientists are debating whether to irrigate the 65 groves in the southern Sierra to help them endure warmer temperatures. Otherwise they fear the trees could die. During the last warm, dry period 4,000 to 10,000 years ago, their numbers were greatly diminished, according to pollen evidence collected by researchers at Northern Arizona University.

"Whether we would water them certainly comes up on our climate change scenario planning," said Koren Nydick, science coordinator at Sequoia-Kings Canyon National Park. "They are a very unusual species because they're also looked on as a social artifact."

Stephenson says his decades of studying conifers in Sequoia National Forest have shown they are dying at twice their historic rate, partly because the climate is warmer and dryer. The giant sequoias grow much more slowly than conifers over many hundreds of years so changes have been tougher to recognize, though researchers suspect seedlings already may be having a harder time taking root.

"That's always the million-dollar question," said Stephenson, director of USGS's Sierra Nevada Global Change Research Program. "We just don't have a big enough sample size to know what's going on with the giant sequoias, whereas we monitor thousands of pines and firs and have much more confidence."

So far, the dozens of changes researchers have noted, in everything from earlier songbird fledging dates to greater wildfire intensity, may point to a warming climate. But it's far from understood whether that would mean doom or adaptation for California's ecological heart.

"I don't want to say that because we're seeing one thing, that's how it will play out," said Rob Klinger who is studying alpine mammals for the USGS's Western Ecological Research Center. "The endgame of our study is determining whether there will be uniform change or will it be patchwork. If you look at evolutionary time scales, species have gone through these changes before, and they handle it."

As part of a Ph.D. project at the University of California, Merced, Kaitlin Lubetkin for five summers has hiked the backcountry taking inventory of 350 subalpine meadows formed when glaciers retreated eons ago. The marshy ground acts as a reservoir that eases flooding after snow melts, and the stored water feeds streams during dry months and sustains wildlife such as the endangered willow flycatcher songbird and the Yosemite toad, which is being considered for threatened species status.

Over the past decade of warmer, drier conditions, however, pine trees have begun to take root, acting like straws to pull the moisture out of the meadows, Klinger and Lubetkin have observed.

"Pretty much right up to the tree line you're getting encroachment in every meadow," said Lubetkin.

In September, Hassan Basagic of the Glaciers of the American West Project will be hiking to 12,000 feet elevation to measure the Lyell Glacier in Yosemite National Park and monitor the changes he first began observing in the early 2000s. Scientists from Yosemite National Park and the University of Colorado recently noted that the glacier is no longer moving - and is melting - by using measurements they've made over the past four years, as well as some of Basagic's earlier work.

Basagic's used photos from the 1930s to show that in the early 2000s the rate at which the Sierra's glaciers were receding picked up.

"A lot of people call glaciers the 'canary in the coal mine.' They're an indicator that the alpine climate is changing," said Basagic, who monitors glacial changes for Portland State University research projects. "With that change, other things will change, like the plants and animals that depend on certain climatic conditions."

Already the American pika, a cold-loving rodent, is moving to higher elevations, and a U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service report says, "Climate change is a potential threat to the long-term survival."

The USGS's Klinger, however, said pikas might be more resilient than the wildlife service predicts. "It doesn't hibernate and it has dealt with expanding and contracting snow packs and changing temperatures - and yet it persists," Klinger said.

If the trends continue, some species are expected to adapt by finding more hospitable environments, scientists say. One potential place is Devil's Postpile National Monument in the eastern Sierra, where 40 data collection devices are showing that temperature inversions caused by atmospheric pressure are filling the region of steep canyons with colder air.

Scientists are studying whether other areas with similar features might serve as refuges for some species. They're looking at establishing seed banks in the 800-acre park where several climatic regions overlap and more than 400 plants, 100 birds and 35 animals coexist.

"We have an incredible living laboratory to understand what's happening with this cold air pool," said monument Superintendent Deanna Dulen. "We're really trying to get a good baseline of knowledge so we can look at the changes over time. We have the potential to be a refuge, but also to be a place of increased vulnerability. There's so much to learn."


Are sequoias the new spotted owl? I think Ron's tiresome schtick about spotted owls and polar bears does have some merit. Too bad he has to talk about it like Jethro Bodine.

Anyway, news and popular science writers, particularly those who try to ring the bell for climate change, seem to want to latch on to some highly visible and recognizable symbol to show the effects of warming and to issue dire warnings concerning the future of that thing.

The article above, pretty well written from my POV, is a good example; threatening the sequoias. I think that is a mistake.

Its a mistake because popularizing climate change this way dumbs down the entire topic and when folks stand up and repeatedly issue doom and gloom reports only to have them proven wrong, they look like fools and fool spreads easily, like a cold virus. Pretty soon the entire climate change body of science is smeared with fool grease because some writers and activists, who are not scientists themselves, have misspoken, over spoken, misrepresented or out and out fabricated seemingly scientific forecasts or warnings.

It is a mistake to attempt to defend such articles. But its also a mistake to conflate a bad article written by a non-scientist to the body of science itself. Since these articles are aimed at dumbing down a complex topic for general consumption, it is safe to assume many of the readers are too dumb to understand the nuance between writer and scientist.

But if any of you doubters ever have been part of a newspaper interview that included the technical details of climbing, you will know already just how fast a reporter can skew and even bludgeon technical details to death, BAM! We laugh when they mischaractetize something about climbing, rail when a dumb ass hiker gets the banner head line "Climber rescued blah blah blah" - HEY, HE'S NOT A CLIMBER!!! We shout in indignation.

Image how climate scientists must feel to see their body of work reduced to a paragraph and dismissed by a fake graph.

Don't fall for it, even if you ARE a dunmbass (and you don't know who you are, you're too dumb, but trust me, you're too dumb to separate the writer from the science).

DMT

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jun 29, 2013 - 02:14pm PT
Yeah Chief they will always twist any data or anomaly to validate their hysterical narrative. The facts are these guys don't live in Alaska and are ignorant to what is happening here and in high lattitudes around the planet. In Alaska, it was true that we warmed up considerably during the nineties with spring arriving earlier and fall later for nearly a decade. They are still talking about this event as if it is still occuring and the permafrost still melting rapidly. What's actually happening is a distinct cooling trend with 19 out of 20 official weather stations measuring on average a 2.4 f decline in temps over the last decade. We've had some very nasty winters of late, this year being the longest lasting in history around the globe at high lattitudes in spite of being in a point in the orbital and axial cycles where winter should be several days shorter than the mean in the northern hemisphere-exactly what we saw in the nineties. What will not be measured or reported until years later is that the total glacial mass in the state is increasing in response to the long, severe winters and on average cool summers of the last decade. Another thing that was buried beneath an avalanche of CAGW spin was that 2012's low sea ice extent was largely due to a couple of unusual Arctic wind storm events, not relentless rising heat, and that the total volume of sea ice loss last year did not match the loss of extent, it was forced into more localized areas of increased mass. Another thing buried under spin this last spring was that the amount of new sea ice formed over the 2012-2013 winter season was one of the highest extents in recorded history. I'm getting close to having collected enough information to refute this whole phony business in the mind of any sane layperson if i wanted to spend the time to write it out long form in the elaborate and coherent fashion it needs.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jun 29, 2013 - 02:44pm PT
the total volume of sea ice loss last year did not match the loss of extent

Rick, who feeds you this stuff, that you are so eager to believe?

Here is the trend in minimum extent:




Here is the trend in minimum volume:




Here are the most recent figures we have for volume so far this year:




The people most concerned about Arctic sea ice loss are not the "warmers" you sneer against. They are the Arctic scientists who watch this stuff every day, and produce all of the data that you cherry pick and misread.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jun 29, 2013 - 04:13pm PT
Forgive me Chiloe for having absolutely zero faith in any cherry picked data you or your compatriots you care to post. Your side has been repeatedly caught twisting data to interpretations that have no basis in reality if not into outright lies. I saw you with your ice core a while back. You have a vested interest in endless climate change studies since your in that industry. The Antarctic ice mass is increasing, there is no doubt about that, and at the end of the melt season Arctic sea ice will be seen to have recovered substantially from recent lows.There has been many times in recorded history that arctic sea ice extent was lower than 2012-a historical fact you guys choose to ignore. Recuse yourself buddy and quietly look for another line of work before you go down with the rat infested ship.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
And every fool knows, a dog needs a home, and...
Jun 29, 2013 - 04:25pm PT
This is great TV no matter your perspective.

Shed the political bullshit for a few minutes and kick back and enjoy

THE WONDER OF IT ALL! A great focus on Antarctica from space, starting at the 27 min mark but the lead-in provides context

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/space/earth-from-space.html

And the strawberry blonde scientist weather woman? She could convince me of global cooling, I s'pect.

DMT
bookworm

Social climber
Falls Church, VA
Jun 29, 2013 - 04:48pm PT
oh, the irony...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2350267/Rare-bird-white-throated-needletail-killed-wind-turbine-crowd-twitchers.html

Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
And every fool knows, a dog needs a home, and...
Jun 29, 2013 - 04:53pm PT
^^^ I expect you laughed out loud.

DMT
Bharata

Mountain climber
Pune
Jun 29, 2013 - 06:06pm PT
Thorium power reactors explained. No waste. No bombs. Lots of electricity.

In 10 years India and China will be selling Thorium power reactors to
the US and all the wind turbines will be locked to save birds from being
slashed. Existing nuke plants will be converted over to Thorium fuel cycle.

The companies that make U fuel pellets are like buggy whip maker of last century. Done. Sell off your stocks now.

http://thoriumremix.com/2013/




Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jun 29, 2013 - 07:14pm PT
Forgive me Chiloe for having absolutely zero faith in any cherry picked data you or your compatriots you care to post

OK, you don't know what "cherry picked" means, and don't believe that nonsense from actual scientists unless it fits your politics. My question is, who do you believe? Who feeds you these talking points, that you're so eager to believe and repeat here -- no matter how false or stupid?

I saw you with your ice core a while back. You have a vested interest in endless climate change studies since your in that industry.

I guess now you're trying to think for yourself, but WTF are you talking about? What do you think you saw me with, and what do you imagine you can deduce from that?

The Antarctic ice mass is increasing, there is no doubt about that,

Really, there is no doubt about that? Who feeds you this stuff???

and at the end of the melt season Arctic sea ice will be seen to have recovered substantially from recent lows.

My own guess is that it will be low although not a new record. But we'll see. It's been a cold stormy summer so far, not much top-melting, but even so the ice is broken up and thin, with little multiyear ice remaining, and the 3rd-lowest volume for this date. How extent ends up in September depends heavily on the weather now.

There has been many times in recorded history that arctic sea ice extent was lower than 2012-a historical fact you guys choose to ignore.

Exactly when in recorded history did this historical fact happen? How do you know? Which guys are ignoring it? Who feeds you this stuff?

Recuse yourself buddy and quietly look for another line of work before you go down with the rat infested ship.

You've built yourself an imagined reality and are confusing it with real people.
jghedge

climber
Jun 29, 2013 - 07:23pm PT


Always fun to check in here and watch the idiots try to delude themselves into believing that global warming isn't happening

No one's really that stupid, right? Rick, Chief et all are putting on some kind of act, right?


mountainlion

Trad climber
California
Jun 29, 2013 - 07:25pm PT
Ron my grandfather was a bio-agriculture teacher in addition to farming and could walk a forest (midwest forest) and tell you what each tree species was...he had a wood shop where he taught me woodworking and we found a burr oak tree that I used to build a roll top desk for my senior project in high school...always have loved the forest and nature...

I saw pictures of Idyllwild around Tahquitz from 100 years ago and it is amazing how few trees there were in comparison to today!! I have read lots about the bark beetle and the amount of water each tree needs to produce enough sap to fend off predators like the bark beetle...fires are necessary as are people willing to clear forests...the problem lies with cutting old growth trees wich are so large that people actually LOVE them...
Brandon-

climber
The Granite State.
Jun 29, 2013 - 07:31pm PT
I don't watch reality tv, but I get the gist of it. People are on the shows because they will look stupid and create drama. And laughs too.

This thread fits the bill. I enjoy laughing at Rick, Ron, and that f*#king blowhard The Chief, it's good entertainment.

Thanks for the laughs fellas, they're all at your expense, and you think you're the stars.

rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jun 29, 2013 - 10:06pm PT
Where does rick get his facts ask the desperate warmists. Well for Alaska's distict cooling, apparently the news is all over the planet except california i guess.Try the London paper linked below.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article/2256188/What-global-warming-alaska-is-headed-ice-

As for Antarctic ice mass increase-link into the nasa site below then type into search Mass Gains of the Antarctic and up will pop an interesting article by Zwally based on the Icesat satellite data as presentes at SCAR ISMASS Workshop in July 2012.

http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20120013495
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jun 29, 2013 - 10:24pm PT
Excuse me folks my link to the london paper didn't work so here is the story from Ak. in link below.

http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/forget-global-warming-alaska-headed-ice-age
Ricky

climber
Sometimes LA
Jun 29, 2013 - 10:35pm PT

I would have guessed after 11,000 posts you would have squared away the difference between weather and climate.
McHale's Navy

Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
Jun 29, 2013 - 10:54pm PT
What's pretty funny is that same article says that the last decade in Barrow saw 3.1 degrees of warming with the trend continuing. Farther north records for warming are being set! That sounds f*#ked up because it is. It's called Arctic Vortex collapse ( not mentioned in the article but they do mention the Arctic warming ) and is being pushed by the warming of Icecap. The lowdown is that Rick can't be more wrong about what is happening.

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/future/warm_arctic_cold_continent.html
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jun 30, 2013 - 01:15am PT
By a million Londoners daily Ed. Sort of like the English equivalent of The National Enquirer-where all the real news first appears.
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