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WBraun
climber
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Oct 11, 2016 - 05:55pm PT
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The Putinator will hack the stupid Diebold voter machines and Trump will win.
The stoopid topo politard loons will all flip out run to Syria.
The Fish will call the Putinator to "knock it off dude" to restore the recount back to normal for beer.
America will then be great again and saved by a Fish.
The animal kingdom is not as stoopid as the Hillary nutcase loon politards so called humans .....
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rbord
Boulder climber
atlanta
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Oct 11, 2016 - 05:59pm PT
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given the state of the world today
Exactly!
Our beliefs about how to interpret a 1 in 10 die coming up 5 doesn't rest on our understanding of math, or logic, but on our pre-existing beliefs about the a priori state. We don't compute probability, we compute conditional probability. We believe there's a greater chance that it came up a 5 because the dice was rigged, than because it just happened to be the 5s time to come up (it's 1 in 10 chance to come up), because of the value of our a priori belief about it being rigged.
But that belief about the a priori state of the world is also a conditional probability based on other information. Subtle differences in people's environment, neurology, etc. compound those differences to produce widely divergent assessments of what that a priori probability is.
For me, I think if you go back far enough in our belief processes, the way that we set our initial probabilities has a lot to do with survival of the fittest. We set them in a way that works to our advantage.
But heck, if that sounds wacky, we can always try ringing up Jesus' cell phone number.
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Curt
climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
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Oct 11, 2016 - 06:07pm PT
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We believe that Trump has a 10% chance to win, but if he wins, that's evidence of a rigged system?
I think you have completely missed the point. Trump is claiming right now that the only way he can lose the presidential election is if it's "rigged"--even though the current odds of him winning are only 10 percent. Given those odds, a Trump victory is more an indicator of possible election "rigging" than a Trump loss. That was the only point.
Curt
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Oct 11, 2016 - 06:12pm PT
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^^^But I thought you guys said he has small hands!?
He has a special corp of 'recruiters' out there spreading cheeks to accept his message.
And those suppositories all have RFID receivers in them for trans-anal communication directly to the brainstem (don't really need to reach any higher functions than that).
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rbord
Boulder climber
atlanta
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Oct 11, 2016 - 06:15pm PT
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The current odds? The a priori odds of him winning? His point (and my point :-) ) is that those a priori odds are already rigged. We're just pointing to different points in the rigging process.
For me, the way I set my a priori probability about whether or not it's going to be rigged, I don't think it's rigged against him, so I agree with you. But others, maybe Sanders supporters, and smoking ducks, intelligent well-meaning people, have different a priori probabilities with respect to the likelihood of it being rigged (by Clinton ....)
He thinks there's a good chance that it will be rigged by Clinton, and a very low chance (0?) that it will be rigged by him. He was saying it Sunday night, when he kept complaining that the moderators were giving Clinton more time/leeway than him ...
I don't buy it, you don't buy it, but that some people do buy it, that some people support Trump, that some people dial up Jesus on the cell, for me goes back to our a priori probabilities.
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Oct 11, 2016 - 06:29pm PT
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Our voting system is distributed, ancient and counties and states are only marginally competent at pulling them off at all. The idea you could rig such messy business in advance is just plain stupid on the face of it. That's not to say you can't have people in positions of power like Katherine Harris who can bend the results after the fact.
And if it were going to be rigged anywhere it would be in red states, not blue ones.
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dirtbag
climber
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Oct 11, 2016 - 06:37pm PT
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Republicans in red states have been rigging the voting system for years, engaging in illegal and racist voter suppression efforts. I highly doubt that is what trump is talking about, though.
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Flip Flop
climber
Earth Planet, Universe
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Oct 11, 2016 - 06:53pm PT
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We in the greater Sierra Nevada live in a dirty voting diebold abramof Doolittle voting area.
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i-b-goB
Social climber
Wise Acres
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Oct 11, 2016 - 06:55pm PT
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^^^Hillary Clinton should need a lawyer!
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Curt
climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
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Oct 11, 2016 - 07:02pm PT
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The current odds? The a priori odds of him winning? His point (and my point :-) ) is that those a priori odds are already rigged.
No, at least not the odds I'm referencing. FiveThirtyEight.com runs a simulation 20,000 times for each state's voting outcomes and then computes the odds of each candidate winning the electoral college votes for that state. There is no "rigging" inherent in this model--at least not that's obvious to me.
Curt
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Oct 11, 2016 - 07:10pm PT
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They rigged it for hillary when they elected trump as their candidate.
You could see that one coming a mile off - too much time; too much mouth.
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JC Marin
Trad climber
CA
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Oct 11, 2016 - 08:35pm PT
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If Trump wins...Mexico will build a wall...and Mexico will pay for it...
but it will be built to stop the gringos from streaming from the North to the South--trying to escape from the United States of America
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Flip Flop
climber
Earth Planet, Universe
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Oct 11, 2016 - 08:40pm PT
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By the way. You're gunna lose, losers. America gets more Pinkie Losers Losing Badly.
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i-b-goB
Social climber
Wise Acres
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Oct 11, 2016 - 08:44pm PT
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JC Marin
Trad climber
CA
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Oct 11, 2016 - 08:47pm PT
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^^If Trump and Hill had a Benjamin Buttons baby
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Curt
climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
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Oct 11, 2016 - 08:57pm PT
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American elections help in populating the Kootenays and all other underrepresented areas of Canada with the suddenly plaid shirted, disenfranchised.
As if. Canada is basically nothing more than 35 million people crammed as close to the US border as sanitation will permit.
Curt
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survival
Big Wall climber
Terrapin Station
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Oct 11, 2016 - 09:22pm PT
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Canada is an Ebannaw word, meaning America's attic.
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Hawkeye
climber
State of Mine
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Oct 11, 2016 - 09:41pm PT
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As if. Canada is basically nothing more than 35 million people crammed as close to the US border as sanitation will permit.
i would take the Kootenays over Arizona any day of the week.
escopeta wants the freedoms that trump represents. "Stop, frisk and grab some pussy!"
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Curt
climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
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Oct 11, 2016 - 09:52pm PT
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That's right, we own you as much as you own us.
Dream on. You have fewer people than California alone and a much, much smaller economy than CA.
Curt
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apogee
climber
Technically expert, safe belayer, can lead if easy
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Oct 11, 2016 - 09:55pm PT
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