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overwatch
climber
Arizona
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Jul 15, 2016 - 03:05pm PT
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With guided climbing only like Hueco
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Clint Cummins
Trad climber
SF Bay area, CA
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Jul 15, 2016 - 04:15pm PT
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Imagine in 10 or 20 years when 5 million people a year visit Yosemite. It will be gridlock for 5 months of the year. I see no trend in the statistics which suggests visitation will jump to 5 million / year.
The numbers have been peaking at 3.8 - 4 million since 1992 (and drop to 3.3 million in some years):
2014 4,029,416
2013 3,829,361
2012 3,996,017
2011 3,951,393
2010 3,901,408
2009 3,737,472
2008 3,431,514
2007 3,503,428
2006 3,242,644
2005 3,304,144
2004 3,280,911
2003 3,378,664
2002 3,361,867
2001 3,368,731
2000 3,400,903
1999 3,493,607
1998 3,657,132
1997 3,669,970 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Merced_River_flood
1996 4,046,207
1995 3,958,406
1994 3,962,117
1993 3,839,645
1992 3,819,518
1991 3,423,101
1990 3,124,939
1989 3,308,159
1988 3,216,681
1987 3,152,275
1986 2,876,717
1985 2,831,952
1984 2,738,467
1983 2,457,464
1982 2,415,587
1981 2,516,893
1980 2,490,282
1979 2,350,782
1978 2,569,268
1977 2,392,600
1976 2,682,400
1975 2,537,400
1974 2,274,600
1973 2,254,300
1972 2,190,301
1971 2,342,200
1970 2,277,200
1969 2,291,300
1968 2,281,100
1967 2,238,300
1966 1,817,100
1965 1,635,400
1964 1,547,000
1963 1,473,400
1962 1,505,500
1961 1,227,100
1960 1,150,400
1959 1,061,500
1958 1,139,300
1957 1,138,700
1956 1,114,200
1955 984,200
1954 1,008,000
1953 969,225
1952 973,971
1951 858,405
1950 820,953
1949 808,372
1948 745,899
1947 777,622
1946 640,483
1945 290,569
1944 120,494
1943 116,682
1942 319,816
1941 597,863
1940 506,781
1939 466,552
1938 443,325
1937 481,492
1936 431,192
1935 372,317
1934 309,431
1933 296,088
1932 498,289
1931 461,855
1930 458,566
1929 461,257
1928 460,619
1927 490,430
1926 274,209
1925 209,166
1924 105,894
1923 130,046
1922 100,506
1921 91,513
1920 68,906
1919 58,362
1918 33,527
1917 34,510
1916 33,390
1915 33,452
1914 15,145
1913 13,735
1912 10,884
1911 12,530
1910 13,619
1909 13,182
1908 8,850
1907 7,102
1906 5,414
http://www.nationalparked.com/US/Yosemite/Visitation_History.php (1906-2012)
http://www.nps.gov/yose/learn/nature/park-statistics.htm (2012-2014)
I have no idea where you get the "5 months a year" concept.
The crowding season has always been weekends,
from Memorial Day to Labor Day.
That's 3 months, 12-13 weekends, 24-26 days of the year.
Month % of visitors # of visitors
January 3% 110,018
February 3% 110,694
March 4% 149,151
April 6% 226,592
May 10% 357,201
June 13% 488,716
July 16% 598,387
August 16% 612,005
September 13% 470,338
October 9% 327,474
November 4% 159,812
December 3% 120,339
from
http://www.nps.gov/yose/planyourvisit/visitation.htm (average visits by month)
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WBraun
climber
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Jul 15, 2016 - 04:29pm PT
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Right now it's a zoo.
Donini is missing out big time.
It's awesome!!!!!!
Full gridlock will commence in 1/2 hour again like yesterday ......
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WBraun
climber
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Jul 15, 2016 - 04:43pm PT
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Walleye!!!!
How come you're not managing the ice box ...... :-)
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the Fet
climber
Tu-Tok-A-Nu-La
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Jul 15, 2016 - 05:25pm PT
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At each the entrance to the park the should install a large boulder. If at least one person per car can climb a V0 the car can enter.
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donini
Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
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Jul 15, 2016 - 05:36pm PT
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As I get older I get less tolerant. So much good climbing out there where traffic is not, and won't become in my lifetime, a problem. So long Yosemite, you were a big part of my climbing life.
Actually, for me, the camping hassles in the Valley are more of a deterrent then the traffic.
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John M
climber
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Jul 15, 2016 - 05:44pm PT
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Clint, you took me too literally. I just picked a date off the top of my head. But having been in the park for 25 years, I have seen the shoulder seasons become more impacted. Yes, at this point its primarily between memorial day and labor day, but the shoulder seasons are getting busier. Mid April through Sept. As for why in 96 it started decreasing. In 96 was when it went to total gridlock. The park barely had any answers for it, except to close the park. That turned off a lot of people who had traveled far to see it or who would travel far. Plus the park stopped most of its advertising at that time. Now its back to advertising and there have been few articles in the news about gridlock, so the numbers are back to increasing.
the overall trend is upward. Some reasons it drops are because of economies both here and around the world. And some times its because of weather. A wet June can change things fairly dramatically. Even the fires in the last few years around the state changed numbers at times. Many of the overseas visitors come anyway because they are on tours, but Americans often change their plans last minute because of things like weather or smoke, or reports of crowds.
Is there a saturation point? I would say probably. Have we reached it? I don't know.
These are just my guesses/understandings based on 25 years of living in the park.
If I am full of sh#t.. well, some think so.. heh heh.
Could you project 30 years down the road and believe that the numbers would be up? If so, then my position is why not do something about it now. Create a better plan. Create a flexible plan. One with perhaps outside the park parking areas with shuttle buses, plus some sort of number that represents a too crowded point. There is such a point. At some number, the park goes from moving to gridlock. It might be moving slowly, but its moving. People are in and out of parking spots as they sight see. But then at some point people just give up and don't move their autos. And then there is no more parking and we have gridlock. I'm certain the park could figure out that number and could figure out at what number the park flows reasonably and use that as the cut off point, where if one wanted to enter, then they would have to take a shuttle. If they did that, then they wouldn't need a reservation system. Only for those with campsites or hotel reservations who would have guaranteed entrance with their auto.
Thats my basic vision. I am open to suggestions.
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Lorenzo
Trad climber
Portland Oregon
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Jul 15, 2016 - 05:52pm PT
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It seems there is something else going on besides Increased visitation
There doesn't seem to be any more visitation than is 1995, for example, at least according to the NPS statistics.
Since that time, visitation actually dipped for the early 2000's. Plenty of time to plan for the visitation of citizens entitled to visit the park.
Maybe the reduced budgets have something to do with it.
A 50% decrease in budget might have something to do with providing for visitors.
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John M
climber
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Jul 15, 2016 - 06:06pm PT
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4 million may be somewhere around the saturation point as housing/camping is one of the choke points. If there is a saturation point. But then they are building more hotels outside the park. One is currently being built in Oakhurst. So I believe that the numbers could yet go up.
edit:
3 new hotels in Oakhurst.
http://www.sierrastar.com/news/article87813777.html
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donini
Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
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Jul 15, 2016 - 06:23pm PT
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New hotels in Oakhurst only exacerbate the situation. I left Yosemite this Spring thru the south entrance and was shocked by the miles long line of cars trying to enter.
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overwatch
climber
Arizona
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Jul 15, 2016 - 06:24pm PT
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Since that time, visitation actually dipped for the early 2000's. Plenty of time to plan for the visitation of citizens entitled to visit the park.
Wasn't that during the time when gas prices were out of control?
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JEleazarian
Trad climber
Fresno CA
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Jul 15, 2016 - 06:52pm PT
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JE, what time period should the development benchmark be set at?
Greg, I wasn't setting a benchmark for planning purposes. I was setting forth my understanding of why people complain when we still get to climb in the Incomparable Valley. Few now remember staying at the Glacier Point Hotel or campground, and I, at least, don't remember anything but a remnant of a foundation or two at Andersonville on the way to Nevada Fall. I do, however, remember a Valley with more than double the number of campsites we have now, and with much more dispersed parking
The centralization of parking in the Village, and the shuttle-bus-only motorized transport in the eastern Valley creates a clumping of visitors - and visitor impact - that's worse than what we'd get under the former regime. I see this particularly at Happy Isles, when what seems like a herd of Galapagos Tortoises starts up the trail as each shuttle bus arrives. Has the limitation of private vehicle traffic and parking really given us a better visitor experience? While many will say "absolutely!" I don't find it intuitively obvious that a majority of visitors would agree.
Of course, I also remember the 9:00 p.m. traffic jams for the Firefall, so not all was idyllic. And I know how much traffic on the trails out of the Valley, particularly the Upper Yosemite Fall and Half Dome trails, increased in the last 65 years. When I first got to the top of Half Dome in August of 1962, my mother and I were the only ones on the cables, and there were only three other people on the summit. It still wasn't much more crowded in the late 1960's, but by the late 1970's it seemed the world was hiking to Half Dome.
That said, I find the concept of "carrying capacity," as required in, say, the Merced River Plan, somewhat arbitrary, because the capacity depends on the amount of infrastructure. I personally think we're at a suboptimal amount of infrastructure to accommodate the crowds.
And Lorenzo, I have no doubt that budget cuts make visitor accommodation more difficult, but I think we'd have more public support - and insistence upon - adequate budgets if the visiting public was more convinced that the NPS had a real intent to consider their convenience and their desire not to waste their vacation time in queues.
John
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johntp
Trad climber
socal
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Jul 15, 2016 - 07:42pm PT
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Last time I went to Yos was for the facelift in 2014. It was such a cluster I decided to never go back.
Edit: I love the place but it has just gotten too much trouble to deal with. Lot's of other places to enjoy without the hassle and crowds.
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Clint Cummins
Trad climber
SF Bay area, CA
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Jul 15, 2016 - 09:08pm PT
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John M,
There was an upward trend from 1906-1992 when it hit the same peak as in recent years (3.8 - 4 million).
From 1992-2014 it's semi random in the range 3.3 - 4 m.
I agree the 4 m number might represent "full capacity" or gridlock, when more people can't get in on summer weekends due to long lines at the entrance stations during casual hours (say 10am - 4pm).
So in a sense, the visitation is already limited by this mechanism.
The January 1997 flood might be one of the reasons that visitation did not reach the 1996 peak of 4 million again until 2014.
(Since campground capacity was reduced at that point with the closing of Lower River, Upper River).
If you think entrance reservation permits are a good solution, there would need to be a "passing lane" to get the permit holders past the other folks stuck in line at the entrance stations.
It seems like a better solution for people who want to plan their visit in advance is to avoid summer weekends or enter early/late in the day.
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WBraun
climber
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Jul 15, 2016 - 09:46pm PT
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there would need to be a "passing lane" to get the permit holders past the other folks stuck in line at the entrance stations.
passing lane has been in effect all summer already.
There's 3 entrance lanes at Arch Rock, Wawona, Hodgdon now.
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Clint Cummins
Trad climber
SF Bay area, CA
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Jul 15, 2016 - 09:52pm PT
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Yes, I've seen the 3 lanes at Hodgdon Meadow on 120 West entrance.
They definitely help speed up the entrance process.
But the lanes at Hodgdon Meadow are only maybe 50' long each.
And backup extends way back on the highway.
So it would need the equivalent of a coned-off lane for much longer to enable bypassing the long line.
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WBraun
climber
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Jul 15, 2016 - 09:56pm PT
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OK Clint.
I'll get the back hoe and dig a secret bypass tunnel for you and Ed Hartouni .....
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overwatch
climber
Arizona
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Jul 15, 2016 - 10:01pm PT
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they are doing God's work
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Clint Cummins
Trad climber
SF Bay area, CA
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Jul 15, 2016 - 11:00pm PT
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No need for my sake, Werner! :-)
I drive in early and late in the day.
Looks like traffic is still busy in spots at 11pm on a summer Friday night?
(More likely, just cars slower near stop signs and crosswalks).
I bet it's all red at noon on Saturday, though.
http://www.google.com/maps/@37.7428503,-119.5859011,16z/data=!5m1!1e1?hl=en
As mentioned earlier, it seems that the summer weekend gridlock would be reduced by adding parking in the east end of the Valley.
(So people can get their cars off the road, and have a little fun outside before braving the drive back home).
But getting approval for new parking lots or to redo old ones (former Upper and Lower River Campgrounds) appears very hard to do.
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Dr.Sprock
Boulder climber
I'm James Brown, Bi-atch!
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Jul 16, 2016 - 12:28am PT
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just get rid of the gas station at t meadows,
the trend is not more people wanting to see the park,
it's that people who visit the park are willing to put up with more agony,
usually foreigners who want to be like stoopid mericans,
nobody at kings canyon right now, any good climbs there?
trundle a big one onto the 140 if you want to stop traffic,
or maybe some TNT at the rodgers creep,
people need their cars to carry all their stuff,
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