U.S. Stock market "CORRECTION!!" Why am I not "too-skeered"

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Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 16, 2019 - 05:33pm PT
I am a little slow in sharing this fromThe Wall Street Journal on Jan 4, 2019 on why:

Double Whammy: High-Fee Mutual Funds Do Worse

Fund managers who charge more than their peers often aren’t worth the extra cost, an analysis suggests

Unfortunately, the below link does not open to be usable by me. Maybe you need to be a subscriber.

Here’s a Snip & a chart that somewhat explains the article.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/double-whammy-high-fee-mutual-funds-do-worse-11546630477


In this chart, returns on low-fee mutual funds are shown in blue & high-fee returns are below them in grey.


Various large mutual fund companies are now offering low-fee funds that track major indexes. Vanguard is still the low-fee leader & they also offer darn low fees on actively managed stocks funds.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 17, 2019 - 07:16am PT
"If a statue is ever erected to honor the person who has done the most for American investors, the hands down choice should be Jack Bogle. For decades, Jack has urged investors to invest in ultra-low-cost index funds. In his crusade, he amassed only a tiny percentage of the wealth that has typically flowed to managers who have promised their investors large rewards while delivering them nothing – or, as in our bet, less than nothing – of added value. In his early years, Jack was frequently mocked by the investment-management industry. Today, however, he has the satisfaction of knowing that he helped millions of investors realize far better returns on their savings than they otherwise would have earned. He is a hero to them and to me."

 Warren Buffett
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 17, 2019 - 09:52am PT
Jack Bogle, founder of Vanguard & the father of index investing died yesterday at age 89. Edwardt's above post is a good eulogy, but I have a little more about this great man.

Among many "Bogleisms" is:

Time is your friend. Impulse is your enemy.

Fortune Magazine dubbed Bogle as one of the investment industry's four "GIANTS OF THE 2OTH CENTURY."

The average expense ratio across the mutual fund industry in 2017 (excluding Vanguard) was 0.62% yearly = $62.00 yearly, for every $10,000.00 invested, according to Vanguard's website. Vanguard's average yearly fee ratio for all its mutual funds & ETF's was 0.11% or just $11.00 per $10,000.00.

My investment portfolio has done great with Vanguard Funds & I'll offer a final toast to a life well-lived by Mr. Bogle.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 17, 2019 - 10:49am PT
Fritzi, you benignly neglected to mention that a Vanguard adviser will NEVER try to sell
you ANYTHING not in yer best interest, such as an annuity.
briham89

Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
Jan 17, 2019 - 11:12am PT
RIP Bogle
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 17, 2019 - 11:30am PT
Really, Fritz, Apogee doesn’t deserve that treatment, he’s a gud guy. You seem to have a hair trigger lately.
I think a friendly scolding would have been more than adequate or, better yet, an ignore.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 17, 2019 - 12:36pm PT
apogee! Thank you.

You asked for a scolding, didn't you?
apogee

climber
Technically expert, safe belayer, can lead if easy
Jan 17, 2019 - 12:40pm PT
Fritz, you and I are often in the same camp on a lot of views. No need to get testy with each other.

Cheers, mate!
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 17, 2019 - 12:43pm PT
Apogee: I agree with your posts about 95% of the time. We will continue as pals, if you can jest restrain yourself from posting political stuff on non-political threads.

Carry on.
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Jan 17, 2019 - 01:09pm PT
Yes, Bogle was the hero for the little guy (and some not so little guys) who just wants to invest in the long term growth of the American economy at a reasonable cost and not finance the luxury lifestyle of the financial advisory "industry" that, at least in very significant ways if not entirely, serves no other purpose than to fleece the little guys.

Interestingly he voiced some concerns about index funds with respect to corporate governance (explained in the homage to Bogle: http://time.com/money/5468239/jack-bogle-index-funds-problem/

And others note that if most investing is done in index funds, that might open the door to more profitable active investing (i.e., markets might become less efficient).

But most of us little guys should salute Bogle and think very carefully about any investing plan that is other than along of the lines of what he recommends. What do you know that the markets don't? If you're paying someone big bucks (either directly or indirectly) to invest your money, what do you think he (or she) knows that the markets don't?
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 17, 2019 - 01:22pm PT
Worthy questions, blah blah, but the markets ‘knowledge’ varies considerably and since the
advent of the Schwabian factor and guys sitting at home on their puters the ‘Crankloon Factor’
has increased IMHO. I need to do some research on the percentage of daily trades made by
‘professionals’ vs crankloons. And don’t take me to task on the qualifications of many ‘pros’
or their propensity for ‘churning’. 😉
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 21, 2019 - 02:11pm PT
A nice obit/tribute to ‘St Jack’ Bogle:

https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-tns-bc-bogle-obit-20190117-story.html
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Jan 28, 2019 - 12:31pm PT
Short term I am optimistic, but soon the national debt will be bigger than our annual GDP.

Long term there is big trouble on the horizon.
I am boosting my hard asset position.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 28, 2019 - 02:22pm PT
When the next ‘downturn’ occurs I’m gonna make bank when all those market timers bail from
equities and decide a nice safe bond fund is a good thang and drive the price up while the
rates keep rising. It’s called double dipping. I’m ‘biden’ my time.
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jan 28, 2019 - 03:52pm PT
You think we are not already into the downturn? I'm not so sure. I saw recently an investment company paid nearly 1/4 B for an apartment in Manhattan. It is too much. Means they are moving money into real estate.
formerclimber

Boulder climber
CA
Jan 28, 2019 - 05:21pm PT
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 31, 2019 - 01:47pm PT
The major indices had their best monthly performance in years as markets look to claw back from a dismal end to 2018.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its best monthly performance since March 2016, rising 7% during the year's first month, while the S&P 500 had its best January performance since 1989.

So far, 2019 is looking great.

What's next???
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 31, 2019 - 01:53pm PT
What’s next? Doesn’t matter if yer in it for the duration and yer properly diversified.
formerclimber

Boulder climber
CA
Jan 31, 2019 - 03:10pm PT
S&P 500 had its best January performance since 1987

I corrected in the quote, it was Jan 1987, not 1989, what is being mentioned in the media.
They do forget to mention Oct 1987 22% drop
(and that in 1987 it was in undersold state, unlike now)
formerclimber

Boulder climber
CA
Jan 31, 2019 - 10:10pm PT
little guy (and some not so little guys) who just wants to invest in the long term growth of the American economy at a reasonable cost


What "little guy" earns through passive index (like S&P) investing just barely covers the real inflation, that's about it. Say, S&P 500 increase since 1998 was roughly about the same as devaluation of actual dollar purchasing power. If you look at core things like prices of housing, food, medical, etc: prices all went up at close to 3 times or so, during the last 20 years. (I don't mean using "consumer prices index" which is nothing but BS)
No investing in economy here, just desperate clinging to the lifeboat....not much of anything of real value is being added to this economy, mostly exuberance and poof-poof stuff...will probably blow up once the younger folks stuck with student loans, etc realize what short end of the stick they're getting and go for full on socialism or some revolution. Venezuela had main index that diligently climbed...and climbed...because the real driver was devaluation of money, same as with US market.
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