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surfstar
climber
Santa Barbara, CA
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Ricky D - that's why you need to adjust your asset allocation as you near retirement. Less stocks, more bonds / fixed income.
Read bogleheads. Google sequence of returns risk. You shouldn't have risky investments if you need the money soon (unless you have plenty and can withstand loosing 50% at any time)
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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John, I’m happy for you. I just hope you did better than 6%.
I did better than that on bonds in some of those years.
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i'm gumby dammit
Sport climber
da ow
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Given what a pile of money would earn outside of the market in a bank, or, a sock or tucked in a mattress There are other options. You could invest in a friends business. You could invest locally. Etc.
I think the anti-stock market sentiment is touching on the mutual exclusivity between maximizing shareholder wealth and the common good. And I don't think she is wrong in the aggregate. You can seek out companies that do take care of their employees, the earth, and things you care about and reward those efforts by investing there.
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Happiegrrrl2
Trad climber
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I agree that Ricky D should move that money. I'd suggest making it a priority, like this week.
Keep some in *the game,* to keep Reilly from gloating ;) of course, and for just in case we actually aren't in WWIII. I don't like being a Chicken Littleb but something definitely IS coming down.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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You can seek out companies that do take care of their employees, the earth, and things you care about
That’s why I’m heavily invested in Church & Dwight Co.
I’ll save you the effort- they make Trojans.
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steve s
Trad climber
eldo
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I admire those of you who have the mental fortitude to invest in the stock market.
For myself I am intimidated by the complexities of that endeavor. My wife and I chose to invest in real estate in a certain area. The portfolio is doing quite well.
Carry on.
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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Fricken Powell bump.
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Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Topic Author's Reply - Jan 4, 2019 - 08:55am PT
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Fear, just a little, not a lot!
President Trump today blamed Democrat control of the house for why the stock market plummeted in Dec.
Another note is: Federal Reserve chairman Powell, who Trump appointed & now hates, announced today he will not give up his job if Trump tries to fire him. At the moment the S&P 500 index is up 2.8% today, so it appears key investors like that news.
Per the below graph & article, the best S&P 500 index gains have come with a divided U.S. Congress, or when Democrats were in control.
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
The best stock market returns occur when Washington, D.C., is locked in the "gridlock" that comes with different parties controlling the two houses of Congress, data shows.
The best S&P 500 returns under a Republican president occurred while Congress was split, with that scenario producing 12 percent annual returns, according to data from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/05/market-history-shows-investors-should-hope-for-gridlock-on-election-day.html
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Briham, just scanned that, looks pretty good. Will give it a longer look. The corporate debt
situation is the most worrisome tangible concern. Unfortunately, less tangible developments
are more likely, and less foreseeable, to cause an upset.
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briham89
Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
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just scanned that, looks pretty good. Will give it a longer look
That's pretty much Dalio reading in a nutshell for me. I have to read it 2 - 3 times to really comprehend everything that is there.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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dalio said:
“Additionally, the US corporate tax cuts boosted equity prices even more and increased the budget deficit, which will require the Treasury to borrow much more. ”
Uh, how does that boost the budget deficit? He lost some street cred there.
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briham89
Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
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How does cutting taxes not increase the deficit?
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Well, I grant you that. I mainly took issue with him saying corporate tax cuts boost equity valuations. That’s not a given and it certainly doesn’t require the Treasury to borrow more.
The gubmint could reign in spending, unlikely as that may be. 😎
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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How does cutting taxes not increase the deficit?
It's not always obvious what effect cutting taxes has on the deficit; as a theoretical matter, it's clear that at some point raising the tax rate would decrease tax revenue. This is easiest to see at the limit: if the tax rate were 100%, no one would work, and the gov would collect essentially zero. So cutting taxes from the a very high rate likely would decrease the deficit.
This is the famous (or infamous) Laffer curve.
But most economists believe that taxes are currently below the rate that would raise the most revenue, and so would believe that under current conditions, cutting taxes would increase the deficit. I'm just pointing this out because the lib dream of taxing the rich as much as possible becomes self defeating, at some point, unless the real goal is just to punish rich people rather than raise revenue.
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i'm gumby dammit
Sport climber
da ow
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Well, I grant you that. I mainly took issue with him saying corporate tax cuts boost equity valuations. That’s not a given and it certainly doesn’t require the Treasury to borrow more.
The gubmint could reign in spending, unlikely as that may be. 😎 There is no doubt the tax cuts boosted equity valuations. Even if simply through the record breaking share buyback programs of 2018. They are the poster child for boosting equity valuations since they reduce outstanding shares raising earnings per share which as you know is a major factor in stock valuation.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/02/corporate-buybacks-are-the-only-thing-keeping-the-stock-market-afloat.html
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ms55401
Trad climber
minneapolis, mn
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anyone know how or where to buy sovereign bonds? in particular Argentina's 100-year bond?
there must be a secondary market for this
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Moosie, give you joy of yer winnings. As you know I only invest in entities that can be
rationally priced or which have no CC (Crankloon Coefficient).
2019 is starting out well. Looks like I won’t have to stoop to flying business this year.
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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Jan 10, 2019 - 12:14pm PT
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Yeah, a good start.
Oil will drive up everything (and it'll hammer the airlines), and certain sectors of retail are moribund, but the near future looks good especially healthcare, transport, and financials.
I liked Powell a lot more today than the day he hiked.
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briham89
Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
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Jan 10, 2019 - 02:23pm PT
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Anybody investing in pot stocks? With Canadian legalization and more US states legalizing it, seems like an interesting growth play (no pun intended).
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