U.S. Stock market "CORRECTION!!" Why am I not "too-skeered"

Fritz, 4.7% over 10 years from yer Ginnie?

U.S. stocks rallied the most since 2011 in October amid a rebound in raw-materials and energy shares. The advance pushed the S&P 500 to a two-month high on Oct. 28 , before the index fell on Friday. The benchmark closed last week 2.4 percent below its all-time high set in May amid a recovery from a third-quarter swoon triggered by concern that weakening growth in China would spread.

After the Federal Reserve’s comments last month boosted prospects for a rate increase this year, investors are watching data for signs of whether the economy can withstand higher borrowing costs. Traders are pricing in even odds for a December liftoff.

1. Thou shalt not invest more than 5% of yer available funds in one investment or:

1a. Thou shalt not invest more than thou canst afford to lose in one investment.

Recent data has bolstered the case for raising borrowing costs for the first time since 2006, with the latest payroll report -- released after the Fed’s October meeting -- showing the biggest increase in hiring this year while claims for jobless benefits hover near four-decade lows. Traders are now pricing in a 68 percent probability that the Fed will raise rates next month.

The S&P 500 was up 3.4 percent this week, on track for the most since October 2014, amid a rebound from its worst weekly decline in almost three months. Minutes from the Fed’s last meeting released Wednesday stressed that the pace of any interest-rate increases will be gradual, reassuring investors that higher borrowing costs won’t derail economic growth.

The S&P 500 is up 6.3 percent in 2016 after a rebound from the worst-ever start to a year sparked by worries that slowing growth in China would spread and oil plunged to a 12-year low. Anxiety over the U.K.’s Brexit vote briefly derailed stocks last month before assurances that major central banks would act to counter ill effects from Britain’s secession helped usher equities to all-time highs.

With stocks hovering at record levels, investor nervousness has cooled, sending the CBOE Volatility Index toward two-year lows. The measure of market turbulence known as the VIX fell 4.3 percent to 11.45 after closing Tuesday at a one-year low.

Of the S&P 500 firms that have released results so far this season, 78 percent beat earnings estimates and 61 percent topped sales projections.

JPMorgan Sees S&P 500 Hitting 3,000, Warns on Tech Stocks
JPMorgan Chase & Co. became the third major bank to predict the S&P 500 Index will rise to 3,000 at the end of 2018, joining Oppenheimer and Evercore ISI. If the benchmark for American equity hits that target, it will have rallied 13 percent from Thursday’s close.

“Expansionary phase of the business cycle, synchronized global earnings momentum, U.S. tax reform should remain supportive of further rotation into value, while continuing to pose risk for low vol and growth stocks,” Dubravko Lakos-Bujas wrote in a note to clients Thursday.

The strategist sees large-cap tech, the group that’s done the heavy lifting in a 2017 rally that’s added 18 percent to the S&P 500, turning into a laggard next year. Tech stocks in the index have surged 37 percent so far this year, pushing valuations to the highest level in eight years. They account for almost one-quarter of the measure by weighting.

If you haven't already taken some earnings, how would decide when to cash out?

All the stock market crashes were created on purpose by the criminals that Fritz feeds ......

■ The most pronounced risk to the status quo resides in the United States, where an already tight labor market will grow tighter, driving the unemployment rate well below 4%. This, followed by a cyclical uptick in wages and inflation, should justify the Federal Reserve’s raising rates to at least 2% by the end of 2018. Expectations of additional rate hikes would inevitably follow, ending an era of extraordinary monetary support in
the United States and possibly leading markets to price in more aggressive normalization plans elsewhere. None of this is status quo.

■ For 2018 and beyond, our investment outlook is one of higher risks and lower returns. Elevated valuations, low volatility, and secularly low bond yields are unlikely to be allies for robust financial market returns over the next five years. Downside risks are more elevated in the equity market than in the bond market, even with higher-than-expected inflation.

■ In our view, the solution to this challenge is not shiny new objects or aggressive tactical shifts. Rather, our market outlook underscores the need for investors to remain disciplined and globally diversified, armed with realistic return expectations and low-cost strategies.

Wait for the dip!

Damn!

Missed it again!

The "first five days" trend is like the January barometer but on a smaller scale. If the S&P; 500 finishes higher in the first five days of the year, there is an 86 percent chance the stock market will end the year higher, according to a "Wall Street Window" article written by Matt Rego in January 2012. Some analysts, including Mark Hulbert of Hulbert Financial Digest, claim investors would do better avoiding these trends altogether. In a January 2010 Market Watch article, Hulbert points out that investors scared off by a down January in 1982 would have missed the beginning of the greatest bull market in history: The markets gained 25 percent in the last 11 months of 1982.

I'll just summarize the thread for anyone just jumping in, like me:

Nobody knows nuthin'.





(that means stay the course. low-cost index funds FTW)

The stock market is having its best start to year in more than three decades. Based on historical evidence, that spells even more gains for the rest of 2018.

When the S&P 500 posts a return of at least 5 percent by Jan. 23, the index's median return for the rest of the year has been 11.6 percent, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

"With a 6.1 percent year to date gain and just three down days in the fifteen trading days of 2018, nothing can seemingly stop this market in 2018," the firm's analysts wrote Wednesday.

The S&P 500 has already rallied 6.2 percent in January, posting only three down days and clinching its strongest showing since 1987. The Dow Jones industrial average is also having a banner start, closing above 26,000 one week ago as equities rocket even higher.

The S&P and Dow both notched all-time highs Wednesday morning before surrendering much of their gains.

"The history is pretty good for years where the first week starts off strong and the first month starts off strong," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley FBR. "It's hard to argue that the [stock] drivers are not going to be persistent: Synchronized global economic growth seems to be continuing, better than expected earnings … and we're also finding out how much corporate America's effective tax rates are coming down."

And what happens in 2018? I predict a 15% - 20% correction in the market at some point next year. I'm firm in predicting the U.S. stock market will either be up or down from its present point, by the end of 2018.

I've been waiting in the wings for a long, long time now, waiting to snap up some bargains.

I think Fritz talked about buying Ford Motor Co a long time ago when I was reading through this

guess you can always average down.....
yours in cold eyed, taking-cash-off-the-table in classic bubble territory.