U.S. Stock market "CORRECTION!!" Why am I not "too-skeered"

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Fritz

Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Original Post - Aug 28, 2015 - 07:44pm PT
An interesting week.

Reilly & the Hedge-fund managers got a really bizarre stock market "CORRECTION." The major indexes all fell by more than 10% ----- then, instantly rebounded.

Most all stock-market pundits advised investors to "stay the course" & not sell.

Anyone have a long-term alternative to investing in U.S. stocks?
Captain...or Skully

climber
Boise, ID or the fricken Bakken, variously
Aug 28, 2015 - 08:00pm PT
Heroin.
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Aug 28, 2015 - 08:03pm PT
It's hard to know without Alan Greenspan there to say "irrational exuberance" a few hundred times before the crash.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Aug 28, 2015 - 08:10pm PT
You can't defy gravity forever. Credit fueled expansion is always unsustainable in the end.

Me, I would be looking for a little spread in Idaho and rustle marmots for protein.
Captain...or Skully

climber
Boise, ID or the fricken Bakken, variously
Aug 28, 2015 - 08:12pm PT
So, no heroin?




Aw man. ...I was SO looking forward to being a Kingpin. Meh.
Fritz

Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Aug 28, 2015 - 08:15pm PT
Rick! OMG! Marmots! I just have to develop a taste for them. I killed 27 on our 5 acre ranchette this summer.

john hansen

climber
Aug 28, 2015 - 08:46pm PT
I just feel that the American economy is still strong. Oil is cheap, good for consumers, not so great for energy companies.

Not that it means much but even after the Dow went down 12 percent YTD at one point last week it was still 300 point above the fifty two week low from last October.

They say there has been a 10 percent correction on average once per year for the last 40 years. This was the first in 4 years.

There is so much innovation in technology going on right now .

Are Microsoft and Apple and Intel and Ford going to stop moving forward?
They have all kept going though any obstacles that came up.

ATT , United, Fed ex, Amazon,, somebody's got to do it.

There are always people ready to fill any opportunity.

If the USA is still around in five ,10 or 20 years, I think your average 401K would have gained quite a bit.

Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Aug 28, 2015 - 08:52pm PT
Yes, I should have mentioned that along with Greenspan's warnings, the price of oil started to climb, and that was the time to take heed. Not the same situation now.

As for 10, 15, or 20 years from now, the big question for most supertopians is will we still be around 10, 15, or 20 years from now? If only we knew how long we'd live, planning for retirement would be a whole lot easier.

Fritz

Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Aug 28, 2015 - 09:00pm PT
Jan: Re how long might we live?

My two-packs of un-filtered Camels per day father died at age 53, & here I am at nearly 66.

It is sooooo-hard to predict my death, but based on my mother's mother, who died at 96, I worry I may live that long----or more.

Thus we have been investing, with very good results, mainly in Vanguard mutual funds for -----a long run.

I will supply some more info in the morning.
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Aug 28, 2015 - 09:52pm PT
I know this dilemma well as my mother is currently 92, living alone and still driving. Her mother lived to be 90, her mother's sister 92, and my mother's paternal family lived into their late 80's and early 90's clear back in the 1600's (I do genealogy), so I figure I'm in for the long haul also.

I put most of my retirement funds into annuities at age 68 and now I'm teaching online part time and putting more money away in an IRA that is wholly invested in stocks. I also bought a house I'm fixing up slowly which is in an area where housing values are sky rocketing. I deliberately bought a house that I would not become too attached to, so I could walk away with cash and rent or buy something smaller and cheaper later on. So far, that's my strategy.
Lorenzo

Trad climber
Portland Oregon
Aug 28, 2015 - 10:35pm PT
Why is your portfolio invested wholly in stocks?



Diversify.

And if the stock market crashes, who's going to buy the house?
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Aug 28, 2015 - 11:01pm PT
What was 'bizarre' about this long overdue correction? I called it six months
ago. It culled the weak willed and weak minded, but then most pronounced
swings are merely irrational stampedes. Stay the course and reap your just
rewards, my faithful, the US economy is fundamentally sound and healthy. It
is good advice to diversify, bonds will always bridge the peaks and valleys
of the equity high seas. And stock up on energy stocks, in two years you
will be laughing all the way to the bank, if not sooner.

My two picks for a good hoot: Ford and Boeing. The former's new Voodoo
flat crank V-8 is smoking hot and the latter's 777X will kick Airbus' azz.
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Aug 28, 2015 - 11:04pm PT
My annuities are not invested in stocks at all, that's why I'm investing in stocks again in my IRA for long term growth now that I have a stable income from social security and annuities.

As for the house, if I can't sell it right away, I still have a place to live and am building equity and getting a tax write off on the interest and taxes. Given the shortage of housing in Colorado and the number of people moving into the Boulder area in particular, it's hard to imagine that anything short of another 1930's style depression would affect the real estate market here very much.
DanaB

climber
CT
Aug 29, 2015 - 06:13am PT
Become a member of Congress. Great benefits, fantastic pension, you vote for your own raises.
donini

Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
Aug 29, 2015 - 06:27am PT
High risk, high return stocks for you lad.....if your grandmother's longetivity is any indication.

I suggest you corner the market on rotary phones and then market them on Supertopo. The absolute reverence here for old, low function climbing gear indicates you might have a thriving business.
Fritz

Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Aug 29, 2015 - 09:34am PT
Here's a list of the Vanguard Funds we own shares in. Four are bond funds, 2 are mixed stock & bonds,& 5 are riskier all stock funds. Year to date returns range from -9.7% in the Energy Fund to + 16.78% in the Health Care fund.

We started investing in stocks in the 1980's and I've kept records of yearly gains (or losses) since 1996. In that time period, we've lost money in four years, with the worst being a -30.65% yearly loss in 2008, but we've made money in 15 of 19 years and are even up 3% so far this year.

Our average yearly gain over the last 19 years is +9.23%, which is far more than I can imagine making from any other legitimate investment.

I fully agree that the stock market is risky & can be a heart-breaker, but in the long-run, it makes money for those that do their homework & or invest in Vanguard Index funds.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Aug 29, 2015 - 09:40am PT
Ditch the so-called inflation-protected and Ginnie Maes and get into the Vanguard junk bonds.
Don't laugh, it has a stellar record.
Ksolem

Trad climber
Monrovia, California
Aug 29, 2015 - 09:59am PT
Fortunes have been made in the last week...
Banquo

climber
Amerricka
Aug 29, 2015 - 10:11am PT
Stocks were on sale and I was buying. Year to date for the funds in one account:

Vanguard VTSAX -3.09%
Janus JNGLX 16.31%
T. Rowe Price PRHSX 17.38%
T. Rowe Price PRIDX 7.38%

Fritz

Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Aug 29, 2015 - 12:22pm PT
Reilly: I'll agree that the Vanguard Inflation Protected Fund is a dog, but we only have $100.00 in it currently.

I love the Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund. Here's a link to a financial writer that does too. http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2014/06/17/vanguard-gnma-vfiix/

It doesn't return a huge yield, but it's about as safe as an investment can be.
Spider Savage

Mountain climber
The shaggy fringe of Los Angeles
Aug 29, 2015 - 12:58pm PT
No worries. These correction days are a great time to buy.

I save up cash and let it sit for months if needed. Then buy on a correction day.

It's like a sale at REI.

I've also gone high risk and dumped all my managed IRA's. There are quite a few very safe big stocks out there that will perform better than a managed IRA. They play it too safe and you pay for that.

It's all just a form of gambling. The higher the risk, the better the potential pay off. If you have no risk tollerance then your money will sit in a super safe fund and make squat.


Real estate is in a bubble again so the time to buy that was last year.


Silver and gold are in the toilet with no prospects so now is an excellent time to buy precisely because it looks stupid.
10b4me

Social climber
Aug 29, 2015 - 01:03pm PT
The stock market is driven by speculation. 'nuff said.
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Aug 29, 2015 - 01:26pm PT
Silver and gold are in the toilet with no prospects so now is an excellent time to buy precisely because it looks stupid.

The fact that silver and gold look stupid is one of the best indications that the economy is doing ok.
Spider Savage

Mountain climber
The shaggy fringe of Los Angeles
Aug 29, 2015 - 05:06pm PT
Count on Republican fear mongering to drive gold & silver up again. If they loose a grip on the election cycle next year, if Clinton or Sanders start looking like a win, you could easily double your money.

They might even attempt a contrived apocalypse even if they are winning just to try and push it over (the election) their way.


Buy low. Sell high.
donini

Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
Aug 29, 2015 - 05:10pm PT
There are only two economists who truly know where the stock market is headed and they disagree.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Aug 29, 2015 - 05:33pm PT
Fritz, 4.7% over 10 years from yer Ginnie?







I'd slit my wrists.
steve s

Trad climber
eldo
Aug 29, 2015 - 05:46pm PT
All my $ are invested in rental properties in Boulder. Probably average 10% gain per year on the 3 different properties and the renters are paying my mortgages and "then" some. Gonna have to raise the rent again( market correction) cause Google,s coming to town. Yep ,just another Boulder slumlord living the dream.
john hansen

climber
Aug 29, 2015 - 07:06pm PT
Andrew Carnagie when asked about the stock market,

" I predict it will fluctuate."
Fritz

Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Aug 29, 2015 - 07:10pm PT
Reilly! Re your correct comment:

Fritz, 4.7% over 10 years from yer Ginnie?


That investment replaced our CDs & almost all our savings accounts. It beats the schist out of what those things are yielding, with only a little more risk.

I'm still darn happy with our average annual return on all our stocks & bonds of + 9.23% over each of the last 19 years.

Currently we are invested about 41% bonds 59% stocks, mostly in Vanguard funds.

The S & P 500 Index has averaged an annual return of about + 14.76% over the same time period, but of course that is all stocks.

Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Sep 25, 2015 - 08:50am PT
UBS sees U.S. pensions adding stocks, selling bonds in Q3
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/25/usa-pensions-ubs-idUSL1N11V15220150925

A lot of pension funds are led by idiots - they're always chasing yield.
I'm increasing my bond/equity percentage. The Fed's rate hike is already
factored into most domestic bonds so if this global 'thang' continues its
uncertainty and volatility I'd rather be holding fewer equities: less
downside risk and better than just holding cash.

Let them eat cake!
Roots

Mountain climber
Tustin, CA
Sep 25, 2015 - 01:38pm PT
I'm still into Silver.
Elcapinyoazz

Social climber
Joshua Tree
Sep 25, 2015 - 02:11pm PT
Negative sentiment at extreme levels, flow into money market/cash funds have outpaced flows into equities and bonds (this is rare) in the last quarter or so.

Sets things up for a nice rally as the buying power is accumulated on the sidelines and shorts are setup to be squeezed. Puts on financials also spiking lately. Couple three more weeks and it'll be time for the big boys to launch the Santa Claus rally into about mid Feb.

The years-long rally was overheated, we've seen about a year of consolidation and yield curve is nowhere near inverted. The pause that refreshes, IMO.
Fritz

Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Nov 2, 2015 - 06:50am PT
A very interesting article in MarketWatch on why Today is The Day.

Inspired me to put my IRA money in the market today.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/personalfinance/this-very-day-will-decide-whether-you%e2%80%99ll-be-rich-or-poor/ar-BBmIUNE

(I don't agree with the advice about global stocks at the end of the article.)
fear

Ice climber
hartford, ct
Nov 2, 2015 - 07:32am PT
At least at a Casino you might know the odds.
Fritz

Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Nov 2, 2015 - 07:38am PT
U.S. stocks rallied the most since 2011 in October amid a rebound in raw-materials and energy shares. The advance pushed the S&P 500 to a two-month high on Oct. 28 , before the index fell on Friday. The benchmark closed last week 2.4 percent below its all-time high set in May amid a recovery from a third-quarter swoon triggered by concern that weakening growth in China would spread.

After the Federal Reserve’s comments last month boosted prospects for a rate increase this year, investors are watching data for signs of whether the economy can withstand higher borrowing costs. Traders are pricing in even odds for a December liftoff.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/stocks-advance-on-health-care-deals-manufacturing-data/ar-BBmJcQg
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Nov 2, 2015 - 08:13am PT
Your a brave man Fritz. Must be all those Marmot barbecues putting hair on your chest.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Nov 2, 2015 - 08:33am PT
At least at a Casino you might know the odds.

Well, Fear, enjoy yer single wide and riding 'coach'. 'Investors' know the odds are heavily in
our favor over the long run. It's quite simple really, assuming one can read.

Fritzi, we're looking forward to a very merry Xmas, aren't we? Does anyone not believe that
the Fed's rate hike is already priced into the markets? I am somewhat ashamed to admit it,
I might even go to Confession, but I lapsed into market timing. That's the bad news. The
good news is that I timed the bottom of the correction to the DAY and bought in a major
way! I promise it won't happen again! Chateauneuf du Pape rools!
fear

Ice climber
hartford, ct
Nov 2, 2015 - 10:45am PT
It's all timing Reilly.... If you can trick yourself into thinking you can time the "markets" over whatever time horizon you pick, go get 'em!

You might win, you might not. But don't think it's not a total gamble.

As long as it's money you can lose take a chance... The problem is too many have everything in the Casino and listen to the shills always barking away that it's the "best" investment which is Hogwash.

Braunini

Big Wall climber
cupertino
Nov 2, 2015 - 10:51am PT
dirtbags comparing stock portfolios itt
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Nov 2, 2015 - 12:33pm PT
Meh, no one is comparing portfolio's.

The great tragedy of our education system is that the concept compound interest is not taught and re-taught.

One who invests a three hundred bucks a month, at the average return of the S&P500, for 40 years, will be a millionaire. $300 a month = 2 lattes a day, or a lunch a Chipotle a day.

It's all about choices.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Nov 2, 2015 - 12:55pm PT
Succinctly put, Dave. It ain't rocket science or smoke and mirrors. My
father-in-law was a missionary in Africa for 40 years. He never earned
more per year than what the average yuppie makes per month yet he religiously
invested in quality stocks and held them. He retired a multi-millionaire.


Moosie, sold yer Tesla stock yet? Now's the time to unload it, while you can.
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Nov 2, 2015 - 01:42pm PT

The great tragedy of our education system is that the concept compound interest is not taught and re-taught.

Yes, a good example is the compounding effect of inflation, so due to the US government's economic polices its fiat currency will lose something like 90-99% of its value over the typical person's lifespan.
(This isn't meant to say that the stocks are or aren't a good investment---I don't have any better ideas, except to at least have some investment in real estate.)
Fritz

Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Nov 2, 2015 - 03:00pm PT
Reilly & all. Don't play if you can't pay, but my stock & bond gains of 9.23% average per year, over the last 19 years are very pleasing at this point in life. I made a lot of mistakes at first, but the road has been much smoother since the 2008 meltdown.

However, our mixture of about 40% Vanguard short term bond funds, & about 60% mostly Vanguard stock funds, & some individual stocks, has returned an annual average of 10.62% over the last 6 years & 10 months. That average annual return will almost certainly improve by the end of this year, or not.

And meanwhile our bank is paying 1/2% on CDs.

Maybe we will have some more of that Frenchie wine. Kinda developed a taste for it this fall.

Studly

Trad climber
WA
Nov 2, 2015 - 03:16pm PT

No reason to be skeered at all. Just bury your head in the sand.

http://www.naturalnews.com/042602_Obama_administration_national_debt_budget_deficit.html
Moof

Big Wall climber
Orygun
Nov 2, 2015 - 04:52pm PT
I love how those ranting about deficits are also the same crowd jumping up and down wanting lower taxes.

Taxes on those who matter (mathematically) are too low. Top income tax bracket should be 50-75% at least. The Laffer curve does not plateau until at least about 75-90% incremental taxation. Heck, just a 2% tax increase for social security deductions would "cure" the balance sheet for the SSA.

It is all fixable is not for the nut jobs keeping the sane folks form properly running the country.
john hansen

climber
Nov 2, 2015 - 07:00pm PT
Not quite as optimistic as Moose but I will keep my measly 100 shares of Tesla for another 20 years.. at least. I may even buy some more someday.

Was surprised to see Facebook was up to over $100 per share when they only had their thirty six dollar IPO only a few years back.

There are a lot of strong, innovative ,companies out there.

I bought 2000 dollars of Micro Soft in 1997. I just don't think companies like this will go away . So much potential for the rest of the world, China, India they all want technology .
apogee

climber
Technically expert, safe belayer, can lead if easy
Nov 4, 2015 - 07:37am PT
"My father-in-law was a missionary in Africa for 40 years. He never earned
more per year than what the average yuppie makes per month yet he religiously
invested in quality stocks and held them. He retired a multi-millionaire."

Yeah, well, the economic and investment landscape is a helluva lot different now than it was during that period. The financial sector now games the system so heavily, and so quickly, and figures out every (barely) legal way to raid one's investments, that no-one sees the kinds of returns that your father-in-law did over the course of a current investment lifetime.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Nov 4, 2015 - 10:34am PT
Moosie, that's why I give advice - so I can remain humble.

Ap, think what you want but smart investors will always do well if they
have the discipline and patience, qualities which are increasingly honored
only in the breach. My point was that putting something away every month,
and I don't mean in the mattress, will reward you nicely eventually, if you
have the patience.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 4, 2015 - 10:47am PT
The financial sector now games the system so heavily, and so quickly, and figures out every (barely) legal way to raid one's investments, that no-one sees the kinds of returns that your father-in-law did over the course of a current investment lifetime.

Bullsh#t. Buy and hold still produces solid returns.
apogee

climber
Technically expert, safe belayer, can lead if easy
Nov 4, 2015 - 12:53pm PT
Reilly, my ex-inlaws followed the traditional investment path in exactly the way you've described, and got killed in the Enron collapse- just a few years before they were about to retire. YMMV, it would seem.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Nov 4, 2015 - 01:05pm PT
Sorry to hear that, Ap, but it seems highly likely they ignored (or broke)
one of the cardinal commandments:

1. Thou shalt not invest more than 5% of yer available funds in one investment or:

1a. Thou shalt not invest more than thou canst afford to lose in one investment.
yanqui

climber
Balcarce, Argentina
Nov 5, 2015 - 07:02am PT
Not that I think it's going to effect Wall Street much, but it looks like there's a pretty big collapse coming to Argentina in the very near future. The time frame I'm seeing is a matter of weeks to several months. In order to maintain a false sense of wealth during election year Cristina is over spending about 7% of the GDP (financed by a combination of printing money and high interest debt). To compensate for the inflationary effect of printing money and to make debt payments she has spent almost all of Argentina's remaining reserves. Right now, even with strong captial controls (the population's access to US dollars is strongly limited by the government) they are spending about 100 million dollars a day and estimates of liquidity in the Central Bank run around 3 billion dollars (30 business days before there is nothing). The other factor in this dangerous bubble is that, even with strong import controls, Argentina has completely lost its trade surplus and with grain prices way down and Brazil struggling, this won't be easy to change. Just to import the energy Argentina needs to keep moving, they are now spending reserves. The sad thing is that most people here don't seem to realize the gravity of the situation and I fear there will be a lot of pissed off people when the bubble pops. With luck there will just be a precipitous devaluation and things will settle down, but it looks complicated to me. I'm a bit skeered, but prepared. And it shouldn't be as bad as 2001.

Remember: you heard it here first!
Fritz

Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Nov 5, 2015 - 07:22am PT
Reilly! RE your comment to Apogee.

1. Thou shalt not invest more than 5% of yer available funds in one investment or:

1a. Thou shalt not invest more than thou canst afford to lose in one investment.

Ye pretch the truth brother!

We lost some money on Enron, & lost some more when the Feds closed down Washington Mutual Bank & handed it over to J.P. Morgan.

Those losses and others I've enjoyed are yet another reason to diversify across sectors & a good reason for more cautious investors to invest in low fee Mutual Funds like Vanguard, that spread the risk around.

Heidi & I plugged our 2015 IRA contributions into the Vanguard Healthcare Fund this week. It is considered a "higher-risk" investment, but I love their performance over the last 29 years, and especially over the last 5 years.
apogee

climber
Technically expert, safe belayer, can lead if easy
Nov 5, 2015 - 07:23am PT
Reilly, their investments were pretty diversified, but that collapse affected multiple related investments at the same time...just a couple of years before they were to retire.

I'd write that off as a one-off circumstance, except that a very similar (and much more broadly) thing happened to uncountable Americans who were near retirement just before 2008. It just doesn't seem that the old skool conventional wisdom around investment is nearly as effective as it was 40 years ago.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 5, 2015 - 08:38am PT
Forty years ago?

Back when the stock market went nowhere for over 15 years?

Fritz

Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Nov 5, 2015 - 08:42am PT
Apogee: I will agree that 2008 was a pretty awfull year for those in the stock market. Despite our holding about 40% short-term bond funds to our 60% stock funds & individual stocks, we lost 30.65%, almost one-third of our investment's value in 2008. The only panic selling we did, was to dump Wells Fargo Bank stock after Washington Mutual Bank got closed.

Otherwise, we sucked up the losses and didn't sell.
After the 30.65% loss in 2008,
In 2009 we had a 20.31% gain &
in 2010 we had a 12.06% gain.

Two years to recover from "The Great Recession" seems reasonable for a couple of old Crankaloons that wanted to retire with adequate income.

We also started buying stocks again in July 2009, taking advantage of high-dividend paying bargains.
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Nov 5, 2015 - 09:22am PT
Reilly, their investments were pretty diversified, but that collapse affected multiple related investments at the same time...just a couple of years before they were to retire.

I'd write that off as a one-off circumstance, except that a very similar (and much more broadly) thing happened to uncountable Americans who were near retirement just before 2008. It just doesn't seem that the old skool conventional wisdom around investment is nearly as effective as it was 40 years ago.

People who were planning to retire in the early 00's who had been buying and holding a broadly diversified US stock portfolio had incredible investment gains, notwithstanding anything that happened to Enron.
Who knows how current investors will do in the coming decades, but saying that people who retired in the early 00's had bad investment returns over their working lives (if they bought and hold broadly diversified US equities) is ludicrously wrong.
I suppose if you're considering "investors" who did things like panic sell at every market downturn and then buy in at the highs, you could somehow get a portfolio that didn't do well over that time period. But remember we're talking about buy and hold.
Fritz

Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Nov 20, 2015 - 10:15am PT
S&P 500 heads for best weekly gain in more than a year!

Today's headline on Bloomberg. http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/sandp-500-eyes-best-weekly-gain-in-more-than-a-year/ar-BBneH9F


Wall Street has shrugged off the French terror attacks & instead remains focused on what's right in our economy.


Recent data has bolstered the case for raising borrowing costs for the first time since 2006, with the latest payroll report -- released after the Fed’s October meeting -- showing the biggest increase in hiring this year while claims for jobless benefits hover near four-decade lows. Traders are now pricing in a 68 percent probability that the Fed will raise rates next month.

The S&P 500 was up 3.4 percent this week, on track for the most since October 2014, amid a rebound from its worst weekly decline in almost three months. Minutes from the Fed’s last meeting released Wednesday stressed that the pace of any interest-rate increases will be gradual, reassuring investors that higher borrowing costs won’t derail economic growth.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Nov 20, 2015 - 10:55am PT
Yes, it's been a gud week! I'd love to spray about how gud but I don't want
to have to hear about being a speculator, mental or otherwise.

Which brings me to my next point. Many talk about excessive valuations
or excessive exuberance, if you will. Here's an interesting article
explaining such in terms of the Tobin Q Ratio which is a more sophisticated
way of looking at such rather than the typical P/E ratio. Yes, valuations
are high but we're not talking 2008 high and when adjusted for a number of
variables and standard deviations then they don't really appear that far off!

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Q-Ratio-and-Market-Valuation.php



Let us eat cake!

I should post a link to an interesting article about Tesla's problems,
especially in view of today's recall of EVERY VEHICLE THEY'VE BUILT!

Here ya go, Moosedrool:

Is Tesla Doomed?

BTW, if you don't know the author, Bob Lutz, then Google him.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 20, 2016 - 11:09am PT
WOW!

U.S. stock market indexes are at, or near, all-time highs only 3 weeks after the panic over Britian voting to exit the European Union.

Per this Bloomberg report, things are looking pretty good.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/stocks-resume-record-climb-as-more-big-earnings-roll-in/ar-BBuy8Gz


The S&P 500 is up 6.3 percent in 2016 after a rebound from the worst-ever start to a year sparked by worries that slowing growth in China would spread and oil plunged to a 12-year low. Anxiety over the U.K.’s Brexit vote briefly derailed stocks last month before assurances that major central banks would act to counter ill effects from Britain’s secession helped usher equities to all-time highs.

With stocks hovering at record levels, investor nervousness has cooled, sending the CBOE Volatility Index toward two-year lows. The measure of market turbulence known as the VIX fell 4.3 percent to 11.45 after closing Tuesday at a one-year low.

Of the S&P 500 firms that have released results so far this season, 78 percent beat earnings estimates and 61 percent topped sales projections.
NutAgain!

Trad climber
South Pasadena, CA
Jul 20, 2016 - 12:20pm PT
https://www.netflix.com/search/the%20big%20short


Hmmm... news of failing mortgages and still CDOs based on those were priced high... until the crash. Today, major macro-economic uncertainty and prices are at all time highs?

I probably have no idea what I'm talking about, but it seems rational logic related to underlying asset valuation and market risk factors are disconnected from pricing. Perhaps the layers of derivatives based on underlying assets, and people's greed mixed with underestimating risk have more of an impact on market prices.

Different groups with fancy models trying to predict how other people will react, and those models interacting with each other, lead to a seeming chaos that only a few people are really in a position to understand.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 20, 2016 - 01:58pm PT
it seems rational logic related to underlying asset valuation and market risk factors are disconnected from pricing

Don't be a nutter, the market is always right! ;-) People with a lot more
time and data than you and I have available are still buying these 'overpriced'
equities so by definition they're not overpriced, right? If you read the
paper I referenced above regarding Tobin Q ratios you might also come to
the conclusion that this is the new norm, especially if people can't get
a break on bonds. "My country for a dividend paying security!"


Different groups with fancy models trying to predict how other people will react, and those models interacting with each other, lead to a seeming chaos that only a few people are really in a position to understand.

While I have a healthy disdain for econometric models, the Smets Wouters
in particular, they do give a reasonable overall picture of life as we
know it, economically anyway. My beef with the SW, and others, is that
their shock parameters are pretty arbitrary and unrealistic. In fairness
gauging the likelihood and effect of Italian banks going belly up is pretty
damn hard to write into a model. That said the IMF said yesterday they
expect the world's GDP to rise 3.1% this year, down a tenth due to Brexit.
Oooooh, a whole tenth? They expect the US to go up 2.2%, not bad but a
lot better than those Euro socialists. Unless yer planning on croaking
within 5 years buy and hold - capitalism works!
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 14, 2017 - 10:09pm PT
This is soemewhat scary, or not.

(Hint. J.P. Morgan takes care of J.P. Morgan.)

JPMorgan Sees S&P 500 Hitting 3,000, Warns on Tech Stocks
JPMorgan Chase & Co. became the third major bank to predict the S&P 500 Index will rise to 3,000 at the end of 2018, joining Oppenheimer and Evercore ISI. If the benchmark for American equity hits that target, it will have rallied 13 percent from Thursday’s close.

“Expansionary phase of the business cycle, synchronized global earnings momentum, U.S. tax reform should remain supportive of further rotation into value, while continuing to pose risk for low vol and growth stocks,” Dubravko Lakos-Bujas wrote in a note to clients Thursday.

The strategist sees large-cap tech, the group that’s done the heavy lifting in a 2017 rally that’s added 18 percent to the S&P 500, turning into a laggard next year. Tech stocks in the index have surged 37 percent so far this year, pushing valuations to the highest level in eight years. They account for almost one-quarter of the measure by weighting.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/jpmorgan-sees-sandp-500-hitting-3000-warns-on-tech-stocks/ar-BBGKHfd
briham89

Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
Dec 14, 2017 - 10:30pm PT
Expansionary phase of the business cycle

It's been how many years since 2009???? Hmmmmmmm


Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Dec 14, 2017 - 10:44pm PT
Some tidbits from Janet Yellen's speech yesterday:

“Look, at the moment, the U.S. economy is performing well,” Yellen
said. “The growth that we are seeing, it’s not based on, for example, a
unsustainable buildup of debt, as we had in the run-up to the financial
crisis.”
Not just the U.S. — the global economy also is doing well. “We are in a
synchronized expansion. This is the first time in many years that we have
seen this,” Yellen said.

The job market? “I feel, you know, good that the labor market is in a very
much stronger place than it was eight years ago,” moving her marker back
to the era when she was vice chairwoman for Ben Bernanke.

The financial system is in a better place — less crisis prone, Yellen says
— with the increased capital and liquidity banks need to possess.

The Fed is also keeping a close eye on easy financial conditions that they
worry could lead to a bubble. Stocks keep hitting record highs, for
instance, and interest rates remain quite low despite the five Fed rate
hikes since late 2015.

Yellen noted that stock prices are high by historical levels, but she
didn’t see anything “flashing red.”
“Economists are not great at knowing what appropriate valuations are. We
don’t have a terrific record,” she said.
“And the fact that those valuations are high doesn’t mean that they are necessarily overvalued.”

High inflation is less of a worry. Although a majority of officials think
inflation will move up in 2018, they still see it ending the year just
under 2%. That’s a remarkably low level with unemployment likely to dip
below 4% next year. The Fed predicts unemployment will average about 3.9%
in the next two years, compared to the current rate of 4.1%.


I'm moving cash back into equities. Nothing crazy mind you but let's just
say 2018 is looking gud!
Mungeclimber

Trad climber
Nothing creative to say
Dec 14, 2017 - 11:31pm PT
are stock buy backs still at a record high?
Open question whether this is a hallmark of irrational markets pushing a bubble.

Janet Yellen's comments... did they address the 'edu' student loan concern in the market?
Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Dec 15, 2017 - 05:41am PT
...capitalism works!

For a few. The vast majority of the world is mired in dire poverty, some within 20 miles of Monrovia.

So it goes.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Dec 15, 2017 - 07:15am PT
World poverty has steadily declined for the last 200 years.


https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty/"]http://https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty/

Capitalism works!
couchmaster

climber
Dec 15, 2017 - 07:52am PT


I thought Donini's comment in 2015 may have surpassed Yellen's. He said: "Aug 29, 2015
There are only two economists who truly know where the stock market is headed and they disagree."

LOL.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Dec 15, 2017 - 08:34am PT
Gary, billions have seen their lives improved in the last 50 years. The data is irrefutable. What doesn’t work is corruption and incompetence along the lines of the crankloons like Cristina Fernandez of Argentina and Maduro of Venezuela. Since Fernandez got the boot things have greatly improved there. If you had visited Singapore 50 years ago you would never have believed what it would become today. If you want to see what Singapore looked like 50 years ago you could go to Myanmar today.

As for getting two economists to agree on where to lunch then, indeed, good luck. If you want to see how they agree on less mundane issues you can look at the weekly compendium of predictions published on the next to last page of The Economist. You can see the range of predictions and the averages, or you can continue to make snide witticisms.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Dec 15, 2017 - 05:02pm PT
The vast majority of the world is mired in dire poverty, some within 20 miles of Monrovia.

So it goes.

Sorry, Gary, but this just isn't true. You're going to have to find some other way to sell your tired old scheme. Capitalism works.

http://www.newsweek.com/now-good-news-poor-are-getting-richer-696286

The speed of poverty alleviation in the last 25 years has been historically unprecedented. Not only is the proportion of people in poverty at a record low, but, in spite of adding 2 billion to the planet’s population, the overall number of people living in extreme poverty has fallen too.

in 1820, 94 percent of the world’s population lived in extreme poverty (less than $1.90 per day adjusted for purchasing power). In 1990 this figure was 34.8 percent, and in 2015, just 9.6 percent.


Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Dec 16, 2017 - 06:27am PT
"I'm moving cash back into equities. Nothing crazy mind you but let's just
say 2018 is looking gud!"

And that is why I am 30% cash and selling to keep that balance.

This is classic late cycle behavior. The late comers are piling in driving the market higher. Commodities and commodity stocks are finally rallying, which will trigger inflation. The labor market is tight and getting tighter, which will trigger further inflation (2% unemployment, offers of $18/hour to work in Arby's in Colorado!)

A recession is only a matter of time.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Dec 16, 2017 - 08:56am PT
Dave, 3.9% UE and maybe 2% inflation next year. Not grounds for a recession. Of more concern was the flattening of the yield curve in the last two weeks after showing a bit of an uptick previously.
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Dec 16, 2017 - 09:11am PT
Low UE and high(er) interest rates lead recessions historically.

Who knows when the next one will start, or why. 6 months, a year, 2 years...

All I'm saying is I'm diversifying and increasing cash to prepare. I sleep soundly at night.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Dec 16, 2017 - 09:39am PT
I hear ya, good to diversify. It's just that so many indicators are in the
green which, of course, the healthy contrarian can construe as a sell sign.
I'm just saying it's too early, NOT that I'm a market timer, mind you.
I put my cash in bonds cause to paraphrase Yogi Berra, "It's just as good
as money." ;-)
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Dec 16, 2017 - 10:09am PT
I got this today:

Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2018: Rising risks to the status quo

synopsis:

Strong market returns and low financial volatility underscore investors’
conviction that the current global environment of modest growth and tepid
inflation is here to stay. We agree with this long-term economic prognosis
but argue that the chances of a short-term cyclical rebound are
underappreciated. So the risks lie in mistaking persistent trends for the
2018 cycle.

The most pronounced risk to the status quo resides in the United States,
where an already tight labor market will grow tighter, driving the
unemployment rate well below 4%. This, followed by a cyclical uptick in
wages and inflation, should justify the Federal Reserve’s raising rates to
at least 2% by the end of 2018. Expectations of additional rate hikes
would inevitably follow, ending an era of extraordinary monetary support
in the United States and possibly leading markets to price in more
aggressive normalization plans elsewhere. None of this is status quo

For 2018 and beyond, our investment outlook is one of higher risks and
lower returns. Elevated valuations, low volatility, and secularly low bond
yields are unlikely to be allies for robust financial market returns over
the next five years. Downside risks are more elevated in the equity market
than in the bond market, even with higher-than-expected inflation.

In our view, the solution to this challenge is not shiny new objects or
aggressive tactical shifts. Rather, our market outlook underscores the
need for investors to remain disciplined and globally diversified, armed
with realistic return expectations and low-cost strategies.

The whole paper:
https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGVEMO.pdf

Yer welcome!

Lituya

Mountain climber
Dec 16, 2017 - 11:57am PT
FWIW. We’ve done well with Buy and hold. Especially good dividend stocks. Pay someone who knows more than we do. But make sure they stay in touch. Sold our SBUX a couple months ago; first time we've ditched a stock in at least fifteen years.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Dec 16, 2017 - 12:04pm PT
If Vanguard had something meaningful to say - who is the person writing their marketing gibber? What qualifies their supposed insight?

BwaHaHaHaHa! If you had put down yer Daily Worker and actually read the
paper, assuming you could understand any of it, you could see the authors
and their bona fides.

Why do bitter people condescendingly criticize that which they don't understand?
briham89

Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
Dec 16, 2017 - 04:27pm PT
TFPU Reilly

In our view, the solution to this challenge is not shiny new objects or
aggressive tactical shifts.

AKA don't buy crypto hahaha
Lituya

Mountain climber
Dec 16, 2017 - 07:45pm PT
I wish to fair-warn those, who today's investors hope, will get involved in all this markets-crap so that they can be on-sold stakes in this BS for a profit.

Market crap? Is this what they're teaching you in that mail-order degree program? Terrifying. In any event, Vanguard beeen berry berry goood to me. I doubt you could have done as well. I know I couldn’t have on my own.

For those of us without defined government pensions to fall back on, good financial advice is priceless. Doesn’t require any more faith than, say, holding a dollar bill up to a lamp.

BTW, it's not only the fat cats you loathe playing the market. Pretty much everyone with a self-funded retirement plan is in. Come to think of it, even those government pensions. But you get your money no matter what. Maybe. ;)
Lituya

Mountain climber
Dec 16, 2017 - 11:04pm PT
Could you survive living within your own, and what the biosphere can sustain, means?

If so. Quit whike you're ahead and live simply.

Sorry, but I can't read this. Apparently you're not just economically illiterate.
Bruce Morris

Trad climber
Soulsbyville, California
Dec 16, 2017 - 11:51pm PT
Personally, I'm just itching for a big crash, so I can go out a buy up again. Sure I want to buy some other people's discarded toys (that's always fun), but what I really want to buy are some slaves.
Lorenzo

Trad climber
Portland Oregon
Dec 17, 2017 - 01:28am PT
but what I really want to buy are some slaves.

So, you are an HR guy?
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Dec 17, 2017 - 06:31am PT
^^^^ Ha.
MikeL

Social climber
Southern Arizona
Dec 17, 2017 - 07:28am PT
Robert L: There are no universal constants in finance, . . . .

Well, there sort of is: the capital asset pricing model and the practice of financial diversification.

Reilly and Vanguard appear to be right (with lots of data behind them).

Quit trying to pick winners, don’t attempt to time market turns, and simply “buy the market.” There are a great many empirical research studies on the issue.

Of course stock prices are socially constructed. So is money. Any asset is.

(You might be primed for a bit of buddhist conversation: everything is empty anyway, dude.)

Be well.
MikeL

Social climber
Southern Arizona
Dec 17, 2017 - 08:52am PT
Er, “goodwill” is a placeholder in accounting for value that someone is willing to pay for assets beyond their book value that cannot be accounted for properly in other ways. For example, if one were to purchase a dentist’s practice, his or her customer list could not be valued as a typical asset but would be considered “hidden value.” That would show up in a sale as “goodwill.” Assets should balance liabilities.

You guys are expressing more of your emotions than your knowledge of financial matters. Equating Enron’s practices with unseen companies that number in the millions is grossly misleading. Show me the data.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Dec 17, 2017 - 10:40am PT

You are helping 'em by spreading their BS to others.

Sad. I suppose I could post a graph of my returns at Vanguard but I guess that would be BS.
I could point out that my Vanguard man only manages 2/3 of my portfolio. Granted, per our request, that portion is invested conservatively. The remaining third, which I manage, has outperformed the other portion by 2% the last few years. Not chopped liver and no Bitcoins.
Lemme know, Robert, I can hook you up. Namaste!
Lituya

Mountain climber
Dec 17, 2017 - 11:13am PT
Robert & Gary & Co. would rather just wait for the day they can simply come and take it. And properly redistribute it. With a premium for the really smart animals. Like them. So it goes.
Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Dec 18, 2017 - 07:33pm PT
Capitalism works.

Really? How was it working on Oct. 29, 1929?

Does this sound familiar today?
http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/stock-market-crashes

During the 1920s, the U.S. stock market underwent rapid expansion, reaching its peak in August 1929, a period of wild speculation. By then, production had already declined and unemployment had risen, leaving stocks in great excess of their real value. Among the other causes of the eventual market collapse were low wages, the proliferation of debt, a weak agriculture, and an excess of large bank loans that could not be liquidated.

Here are market forces at work. People suffering from malnutrition in the cities while farmers can't sell their crops.
The depression meant hunger, malnutrition, overcrowding, and poor health. It gave rise to widespread poverty and suffering. Although few people died from starvation, many did not have enough to eat. People even searched garbage dumps for food or ate weeds. Since people lost jobs, the mortgages on many homes were foreclosed. Homeless people shacks out of old crates and formed shanty towns.

The farmers went through a worse time. The price of their goods, which was already low, fell further by 50 percent. There were people going hungry but at the same time surplus food could not be sold for a profit.
http://www.rocketswag.com/medicine/nutrition/malnutrition/Malnutrition-And-Starvation-During-The-Great-Depression.html

Fortunately, the Democrats applied some of the more conservative planks of the old Socialist Party of America and saved America for capitalism.

As a good friend once put it:
Even if the workers did freely consent to this theft of the fruits of their labour, it would not solve the central economic problem of capitalism - it doesn't work. This is why we have repeated boom-bust cycles, people lose their investments and the whole cycle repeats itself with a whole new bunch of suckers to invest their money and an inexplicably willing next generation of workers who aquiesce to this absurdity as a result of relentless propaganda exhorting them to be patriotic, not to be "unamerican", not to be goddammed "pinkos", "commies" and any other totally meaningless epithets that the right wing can come up with. " John Locke's tacit consent" ?? I don't think so. This is onerous persuasion. It's intellectual repression. It's the implicit threat of some undefined disenfranchisement of those who dare to refuse to conform - those who are "unamerican", god will curse you, you don't belong here, you are not part of the herd...................

Robert & Gary & Co. would rather just wait for the day they can simply come and take it. And properly redistribute it.

Wealth is redistributed every day, from the people who produce it to the capitalist oligarchs who run the country. It's called class warfare. Don't take my word for it, a famous Marxist firebrand agrees with me:
“There’s class warfare, all right,” Mr. Buffett said, “but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/26/business/yourmoney/26every.html
Lituya

Mountain climber
Dec 18, 2017 - 08:10pm PT
@Gary says: The vast majority of the world is mired in dire poverty, some within 20 miles of Monrovia.
So it goes.

You seem to have skipped over some facts that were presented earlier as you poured out half the glass and tried to relitigate 1929. For your benefit, again:

http://www.newsweek.com/now-good-news-poor-are-getting-richer-696286

"The speed of poverty alleviation in the last 25 years has been historically unprecedented. Not only is the proportion of people in poverty at a record low, but, in spite of adding 2 billion to the planet’s population, the overall number of people living in extreme poverty has fallen too."

". . . in 1820, 94 percent of the world’s population lived in extreme poverty (less than $1.90 per day adjusted for purchasing power). In 1990 this figure was 34.8 percent, and in 2015, just 9.6 percent."
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 18, 2017 - 09:27pm PT
Gary & all: Capitalism works in strange ways, unlike God, who has taken the last couple of thousand years off.

The Great Depression worldwide, led to Roosevelt & all the reforms he pushed through as a “safety net” for the “working class” in America & the rise of Hitler in Germany. And we all know where that ended up.

It’s a strange, strange Capitalistic world we live in, and meanwhile, for the last 80 or so years, investing wisely, has paid off -----------in the long term. I do not worship Capitalism like the Republicans, but instead have embraced one of its minor sects, the First Church of Vanguard Mutual Funds.

My average stock & bond gains, mostly from Vanguard Funds, over the last 20 years, have averaged 8.74% per year. At the start of December 2017, the 10% or so of our investments that I still pretend to actively manage were up 21.5% YTD, but that’s an exception. In the long-run our Vanguard Mutual Funds have killed my schisty stock picks.

Current Vanguard portfolio as of 11/10/17

I’m trying to encourage young folks here, who have excess money, to invest it in low fee mutual funds like Vanguard, & just let your investments make you happy, in the long run.
Mungeclimber

Trad climber
Nothing creative to say
Dec 18, 2017 - 09:53pm PT
Fritz,

Spot on, trying to get people to 'invest'... but they don't realize that you can buy some simple dividend earning stocks for $5 after you open an account. They think you have to have a ton of money already saved.

The truth is a savings account is a rip off. Insured yes, but it won't grow. period.
briham89

Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
Dec 18, 2017 - 10:00pm PT
Fritz thanks for sharing. It's seems a simple S&P index fund would be a "winner" this year....up 19.14% (year change). Although hard to go wrong in 2017.
Spider Savage

Mountain climber
The shaggy fringe of Los Angeles
Dec 18, 2017 - 10:01pm PT
I dumped all my IRA's and play and number of solid stocks.

Those funds try to play it safe. It really holds them back.


So the trick is... when does this bubble pop? And how much can I make before it does?
Bruce Morris

Trad climber
Soulsbyville, California
Dec 18, 2017 - 11:34pm PT
I bought 4 PCGS MS66 Augustus Saint Gaudens double eagle 20-dollar gold pieces last week in a random sale from a coin dealer in Texas. They arrived here in Sonora in two packages. The first contained 2 1924 double eagles. No surprise there. Only $300+ per coin over melt. However, today the second package arrived. Bango, 2 PCGS MS 66 1908 double eagles without the "In God We Trust" motto below the flying eagle on the reverse sides. I had a hunch. Spun the roulette wheel and it paid off nicely. Not pure chance, but an educated guess since a hoard of 1908s were found recently in a Wells Fargo vault.

And gold lasts forever.
Mungeclimber

Trad climber
Nothing creative to say
Dec 18, 2017 - 11:35pm PT
If you haven't already taken some earnings, how would decide when to cash out?

I guess based on the rest of the portfolio, and whether percent of return has outperformed other sectors/holdings?

Bruce Morris

Trad climber
Soulsbyville, California
Dec 18, 2017 - 11:39pm PT
Invest in Dollar General Corporation. With all the low-grade food and merchanise they sell, DG seems poised to take advantage of the New Poverty. Solid performing stock too.
MikeL

Social climber
Southern Arizona
Dec 19, 2017 - 06:28am PT
Fritz: . . . the First Church of Vanguard Mutual Funds. 

lol.

In the long-run our Vanguard Mutual Funds have killed my schisty stock picks. 

Ditto. I used to work in the investment industry for a primary government securities dealer for a little while, but left because I didn’t like what I was asked to do with investors (“sell” them no matter what I thought). I then went for a Ph.D. and teaching. In the last year, I took over our portfolio and moved everything over to Vanguard. It took some “splain’in” to my not-so-dumb wife about random walks down Wall Street in doing so. When I moved the portfolio over, I saw what she had bought. She bought almost every company I was high on over the years in my teaching of business strategy. Over a 15 year period of time, every single one of those stocks under-performed the market significantly.

What’s sometimes difficult to “get” (because it challenges intuitive sense) is that the strategic performance of firms in their markets is not tied to their stock price performance.

One need to remember that there are MANY really smart people working in the investment industry. They all can’t win. All markets are socially constructed. That means they are closely watching what each other is doing. Smart money tends to buy the gossip and sell the news. But even that gets gamed.

Diversification really is a “free lunch.” You can get something for nothing using it.
Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Dec 19, 2017 - 06:49am PT
You seem to have skipped over some facts that were presented earlier as you poured out half the glass and tried to relitigate 1929. For your benefit, again:

Lituya, have been down to Mexico lately? I guess all of the 9.6% of the world that lives in dire poverty must all be in Baja.

As for FEE, it's obvious that free markets don't work, except maybe for the oligarchy. Did you ever happen to see the Ohio River prior to the Clean Water Act? MArket forc es were at work there. It was an open industrial sewer. Nothing but rough fish like perch, carp, buffalo, gar and catfish could live in it and if the schools of dead fish floating on the surface drifting downstream were any indication even they weren't doing to well.

Sturgeon and striped bass have returned to the river. You can eat your catch without poisoning your unborn child, too. And by reading the business pages it appears that the Clean Water and Clean Air Act haven't exactly destroyed the ability of American business to generate a profit.

Should we return to those old days of libertarian free market pollution control?
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 19, 2017 - 07:41am PT
Mungeclimber! Per your question:
If you haven't already taken some earnings, how would decide when to cash out?


Of course, that "when to cash out" question devils a lot of investors. On the one hand are the dreaded "Market-Timers," an awesome group of investors, who know exactly when the market is going to crash.

Of course, once you sell & have taxes on the profits, which are then setting in low or no yield accounts, you have to then time the market to get back in.

Aye lads, that Market Timing is a tricky business, but there's plenty of folks that do it & plenty of folks that rue it.

I have on occasion looked at a Vanguard Mutual Fund I have done well with, & decided it was time to step aside. I made a ton of gains with Vanguard Energy Fund from 2002 to 2008 & transfered most of my money out of it near its peak in the fall of 2008. It is now well below that peak, but I'm completely out of it.

So------my wife & I are "buy & hold" investors, who occasionally move money from one investment to another. The last few years we have been converting stock gains into bond investments, but still hold about 60% stocks to 40% bonds.

We have quite a bit of our portfolio in the Vanguard Ginnie Mae fund, which is about as safe an investment as a bond fund can be, but also has the low yields one would expect of a safe investment. It has replaced the Money-market bank accounts we used to keep. When we need some money, we write a check on it & transfer funds into our non-interest bearing checking account.



Disclaimer! There are no "perfectly safe" investments. The stock market will have more crashes. Considering the insane man that claims to be our president & his ways, the market could crash tomorrow, or not.
WBraun

climber
Dec 19, 2017 - 07:47am PT
All the stock market crashes were created on purpose by the criminals that Fritz feeds ......
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 19, 2017 - 08:27am PT
WBraun! Re your remark:
All the stock market crashes were created on purpose by the criminals that Fritz feeds ......


Yeah, whatever. Luckily, us smoking fuking ducks have no control over the market. I didn't worry I was feeding criminals, but if you define corporations as criminals, I am complicit in feeding them, so they can feed me.

Edit!

And then I can help feed Government employees like you, by paying taxes on my criminal earnings.

Wait! Doesn't that make you complicit too?
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Dec 19, 2017 - 10:05am PT
it's obvious that free markets don't work

There’s no free anything, except maybe street drug markets. All other markets are regulated to some degree. You like cauliflower? It came to yer store via a ‘market’, with LOTS of regs. Hell, even the air we breathe is courtesy of a market of sorts. Ask any Beijing resident.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Dec 19, 2017 - 11:13am PT
Lituya, have been down to Mexico lately? I guess all of the 9.6% of the world that lives in dire poverty must all be in Baja

I go there regularly 2x year for work or fun. Mostly MC, Puebla, or Veracruz area. Beautiful. Never been to Baja. Even Climbed Orizaba again last February at age 55. Mexico’s problems have little to do with capitalism and everything to do with a culture that tolerates corruption.

Since you asked, have you been you Venezuela lately? Might be good for you to see your ideas in action.

.Should we return to those old days of libertarian free market pollution control?

Uhhhhhhh, no. Did anyone suggest we should?
Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Dec 19, 2017 - 11:42am PT
Reilly, that's true. Fortunately.

ituya wrote:
Since you asked, have you been you Venezuela lately? Might be good for you to see your ideas in action.

I'd prefer to go to one Forbe's Magazine's best cities in the world to live in list to see my ideas in action.

Why don't you go to Indonesia to see your ideas in action?
Larry Nelson

Social climber
Dec 19, 2017 - 12:42pm PT
Fritz,
For those youngsters:

"The most powerful force in the universe is compound interest."
Albert Einstein

Edit
Gary,
You mean go to Singapore to see Reilly's world
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 31, 2017 - 10:41am PT
Yesterday, I figured out what our stocks & mutual funds achieved in 2017 & I'm feeling fairly happy. Since about 40% of our portfolio is in Vanguard's safer bond funds, our return is well below that of the S & P 500 index, which was up about 20.65%.

We managed a 12.39% gain this year on our stock & bond portfolio, & our average annual gains over the last 22 years are: 9.47%

Here's where most of the money is planted, in Vanguard low fee mutual funds.


And what happens in 2018? I predict a 15% - 20% correction in the market at some point next year. I'm firm in predicting the U.S. stock market will either be up or down from its present point, by the end of 2018.

With lower tax rates, I will be more aggressive at lowering our percentage of stocks to around 50% of our portfolio, but plan on staying invested, come what may.

Vanguard is not sounding real excited about the future:

■ The most pronounced risk to the status quo resides in the United States, where an already tight labor market will grow tighter, driving the unemployment rate well below 4%. This, followed by a cyclical uptick in wages and inflation, should justify the Federal Reserve’s raising rates to at least 2% by the end of 2018. Expectations of additional rate hikes would inevitably follow, ending an era of extraordinary monetary support in
the United States and possibly leading markets to price in more aggressive normalization plans elsewhere. None of this is status quo.

■ For 2018 and beyond, our investment outlook is one of higher risks and lower returns. Elevated valuations, low volatility, and secularly low bond yields are unlikely to be allies for robust financial market returns over the next five years. Downside risks are more elevated in the equity market than in the bond market, even with higher-than-expected inflation.

■ In our view, the solution to this challenge is not shiny new objects or aggressive tactical shifts. Rather, our market outlook underscores the need for investors to remain disciplined and globally diversified, armed with realistic return expectations and low-cost strategies.

Best wishes for a happy financial New Year folks!
Bruce Morris

Trad climber
Soulsbyville, California
Dec 31, 2017 - 11:53am PT
I like that bit of wisdom, Moose, "buy at the dip". That's what I'm holding out and waiting for. Waiting to ponce! Last time, I bought a repossessed race car in a warehouse in Florida for $9Gs. Who knows what goodies and toys are going to be littering the landscape when the next big dip comes down? Maybe a condo in Palo Alto? Hope so!
unlocked gait

Gym climber
the range
Dec 31, 2017 - 12:15pm PT
my emotional detachment from money
has proven itself the greatest
stride in my maturity as a human.

i don't deny it. i don't run from it.
but i also, don't fear it.

and i'm wealthy beyond measure.
so much so that my personal
monetary wealth flows
laterally to those whom
suffer real shortage.
Bruce Morris

Trad climber
Soulsbyville, California
Dec 31, 2017 - 01:55pm PT
It's funny though how all these climbers were so anti-ego and anti-materialistic in the 60s and 70s and now they're all bots goose-stepping to the seductive tune of security linked to the rise and fall of the stock market. I think it's because you can no longer count on getting an easy, predictable job with all kinds of benes and a retirement package like a white WWII daddy with the GI Bill and FHA home loans. No more super low tuition and 0% interest student loans either. Therefore, you have to be real cautious and hold on like smug little SOB.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Dec 31, 2017 - 02:21pm PT
Bruce, how do we know when the ‘dip’ is dippest?
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 31, 2017 - 02:41pm PT
Wait for the dip!

Damn!

Missed it again!

I last caught a dip, when we bought some Caterpillar stock in Feb. 2009.

Damn! That felt "GUD!"

And while "market-timers" were waiting for just the right dip, those of us staying fully invested, were sleeping fairly easily at night.
Jim Clipper

climber
from: forests to tree farms
Dec 31, 2017 - 11:00pm PT
Unlocked gait, do you work in south lake tahoe?
Bruce Morris

Trad climber
Soulsbyville, California
Dec 31, 2017 - 11:06pm PT
Bruce, how do we know when the ‘dip’ is dippest?

There's always a first dip and just when everybody thinks the worst is over, it takes a real nose dive and wipes 'em out for good. Sort of like the "two trauma process" in the development of irreversible, catastrophic schizophrenia. That's the golden moment to pounce, pick up some nice abandoned toys and move into the market again.

Nobody gets it right unless blind lady luck is on their side.
Mungeclimber

Trad climber
Nothing creative to say
Jan 2, 2018 - 09:55pm PT
Mc'Weege is back!
Lorenzo

Trad climber
Portland Oregon
Jan 3, 2018 - 10:33am PT
http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-wins-million-dollar-bet-against-hedge-funds-2018-1

"In 2007, Warren Buffett entered a million-dollar bet with the fund manager Protégé Partners that the S&P 500 would beat a basket of hedge funds over the next decade.

His S&P 500 index fund compounded a 7.1% annual gain over 10 years, beating an average increase of 2.2% by the basket of funds selected by Protégé Partners.

Buffett's prize money will go to Girls Inc. of Omaha, Nebraska.

Buffett has taken issue with hedge funds' high fees and their promise of outperforming the market."


Screw the S&P. What I want is a piece of Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway, which has outperformed the S&P by a factor of about 1,000.
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Jan 3, 2018 - 10:58am PT
Screw the S&P. What I want is a piece of Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway, which has outperformed the S&P by a factor of about 1,000.

What you wanted was Berkshire Hathaway in the distant past. Returns have been very comparable to S&P for many years now. Obviously they were much higher a long time ago, but do you think that past performance will repeat? Look at Buffet's recent bets--not very impressive.


Buffet seems to enjoy his celebrity and being an "oracle,"--I suppose I'd listen to his advice to invest in index funds and not try to pick a hot stock picker (which Buffet hasn't been for a long time).

NutAgain!

Trad climber
South Pasadena, CA
Jan 3, 2018 - 11:19am PT
"Buying on the dip" works if you can predict the future.

Otherwise, a strategy that effectively achieves that end result is called Dollar Cost Averaging.
Lorenzo

Trad climber
Portland Oregon
Jan 3, 2018 - 11:31am PT
What you wanted was Berkshire Hathaway in the distant past.

The recent past would do.

The five previous years returned 11.5%
The ten most recent years returned 9.8%


Both substantially better than either side of the bet mentioned.
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Jan 3, 2018 - 12:20pm PT
The recent past would do.

The five previous years returned 11.5%
The ten most recent years returned 9.8%


Both substantially better than either side of the bet mentioned.

I'm sorry but you seem somewhat ill-informed on this topic.
S&P 500 return for 5 years is 15.8%, 10 years 8.5%. See https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0540&FundIntExt=INT&ps_disable_redirect=true

So, assuming your numbers are right, the 10 year Berkshire returns are somewhat better, and the 5 year returns are significantly worth.

The somewhat better 10 year returns are certainly not a game changer--and are right where an actively managed fund that's slightly beat the 500 would be.
For example, I was lucky enough to guess that Vanguard's Primecap fund would do well and invested in years ago (more than 10 years). It's 10 year return is 11.1%, nearly identical to your vaunted Berkshire.

It should be clear from looking at the graph you posted that Berkshire absolutely killed it for a long time, but that time has long passed, and it's recent returns have been comparable to market. Maybe somewhat better, but apparently significantly worse over the medium term (5 years).
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Jan 3, 2018 - 03:33pm PT
Was pissed I missed out on Apple bitd, so last week when it dipped because of the low battery broo ha ha I was a buyer for ten round lots @ $170.

Its already up by thousands, but I'm sitting on it (day traders are parasites anyway).


Just gotta sack up and go for it. At least I can survive the losers, its not like free soloing,....
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Jan 3, 2018 - 04:01pm PT
Was pissed I missed out on Apple bitd, so last week when it dipped because of the low battery broo ha ha I was a buyer for ten round lots @ $170.

Its already up by thousands, but I'm sitting on it (day traders are parasites anyway).

Apple is at 172 now.
I'm not sure exactly when you bought, but it appears that Apple is up significantly less than the market as a whole (say S&P 500) in the last week or so.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 3, 2018 - 04:45pm PT
At least TV didn’t buy Tesla - down 2% today on news of further production problems. They’ve burned theough over 2 Billion in cash the past two quarters and are said to only have enough cash to last through the first quarter!
Moosie, SELL NOW!

If I was a betting man I would short Apple. The iPhone X isn’t selling and they don’t have anything else earthshaking in the pipeline.
seano

Mountain climber
none
Jan 3, 2018 - 05:45pm PT
If you like gambling, maybe short Intel? I don't, so I'm not touching it...

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/03/business/computer-flaws.html
i-b-goB

Social climber
Wise Acres
Jan 3, 2018 - 05:57pm PT
Take stock of your ass-ets!
john hansen

climber
Jan 3, 2018 - 06:22pm PT
When this thread started, Aug 28 2015 ,the Dow was at 16500.
Nasdaq was 4115,, S and P 1884.

That was right after the government shutdown.

Dow may top 25000 tomorrow,,,Nasdaq went over 7000 yesterday , S&P 2713.

There may be a correction coming ,or not. For now, will stay the course.

One other thing is that you are never going to cash out your whole portfolio in one year, hopefully more like over 20 or 25 years, so even if there is a 20 or even 30 percent downturn you would still have many years to recover as long as you are only taking out 6 or 7 % a year.

500000 x .07 = 35000

I think the real trick, is to die the same day as the money runs out. :)


EDIT: Every advisor I have ever talked to about annuities has said they are a bad idea,, except the guys trying to sell me annuities.

zBrown

Ice climber
Jan 4, 2018 - 08:13am PT
Hey zB - take a look at this: 1960-2010, 1950-2010, 1920-2015

Pay attention the the axes



blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Jan 4, 2018 - 09:11am PT
. . . I think the real trick, is to die the same day as the money runs out. :)

That's called an annuity.
Seems like a good idea for people who have no particular interest in leaving anything to anyone after death, but in practice they often seem to have a scam like quality (commissioned salespeople, high and non-transparent fees, etc.)
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 4, 2018 - 09:50am PT
Warren Buffett proclaims optimism for America's financial future

Warren Buffett proclaims optimism for America's financial future
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-buffett-essay/warren-buffett-proclaims-optimism-for-americas-financial-future-idUSKBN1ET1Y7

I know, he’s just a shill for the Zionist Imperialust (sic) Globalist Overlords.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 4, 2018 - 10:07am PT
I pity you atheists.

Gold is up cause the buck is down. Not rocket science, or a precursor of the Apocalypse.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 4, 2018 - 10:21am PT
Moosie, I would but would you pay up? Who’s gonna hold our money?
A year ago I would not have. A lot of things have changed for the better since then.
Even the bond yield curve has improved, admittedly not a lot, but something.
zBrown

Ice climber
Jan 4, 2018 - 10:26am PT
Well blah, may be a a memorable occasion. We agree on something. I think this happened once before.

Annuities.

(commissioned salespeople, high and non-transparent fees, etc.)
zBrown

Ice climber
Jan 4, 2018 - 10:29am PT
I'll give ya the Clapton is god hypothesis, but it's weak. No doubt about the Holy Ghost.




Gawd himself wishes he'd never touched it.
-Po' Willie Brown

[Click to View YouTube Video]
Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Jan 4, 2018 - 11:47am PT
"t is by no means obvious, on an ex ante basis, that tax rate cuts will ultimately lead to a larger economy," as the Brookings Institution's William Gale and Andrew Samwick wrote in a 2014 paper. Well-designed tax policy can increase growth, they wrote, but to do so, tax cuts have to come alongside spending cuts.

And even then, it can't just be any spending cuts — it has to be cuts to "unproductive" spending.

"I want to be clear — one can write down models where taxes generate big effects," Gale told NPR. But models are not the real world, he added. "The empirical evidence is quite different from the modeling results, and the empirical evidence is much weaker."

It's not just Gale. According to a 2012 report from the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service (referenced by the New York Times' David Leonhardt in a 2012 column), top marginal tax rates and economic growth have not appeared correlated over the past 60 years.

"Cuts to unproductive spending." That sounds like the Pentagon. But according to Ryan the cuts will be paid for by cutting medicare and social security.
Bruce Morris

Trad climber
Soulsbyville, California
Jan 4, 2018 - 12:08pm PT
Interesting that you bring that up about gold rising steadily lately, Moose. I've been noticing that too. Could be an indicator of a coming correction? But silver went up a while ago and then it went back down. Smart money could be moving into precious metals cause they smell a coming crash. Hard to say until it happens though.

StahlBro

Trad climber
San Diego, CA
Jan 4, 2018 - 12:34pm PT
This is pure irrational enthusiasm. There are no underlying changes to the US key economic indicators to justify this kind of growth. Dotcom and mortgage crisis all over again.

The insiders will cash out before the inevitable correction/collapse.

Same as it ever was. Unrestrained capitalism is the false god.
Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Jan 4, 2018 - 01:07pm PT
Unrestrained capitalism is the false god.

But...but...but...Venezuela!!!111
zBrown

Ice climber
Jan 4, 2018 - 04:16pm PT

Get high, buy, sell.

These two and a number of associates grossed over $100 million in around 4-5 years. What was the margin? I don't know but it was high (too).

How much jail time? Not that much considering the ROI.


Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 4, 2018 - 05:43pm PT
Reilly, how about we compare our returns the end of the year.

Dood, I’m not that kinda guy, although I did enjoy “Hedwig and the Angry Inch”.
zBrown

Ice climber
Jan 4, 2018 - 06:42pm PT
^Where are your tax returnz, Doodah? We all love a parade.

zBrown

Ice climber
Jan 5, 2018 - 04:09pm PT


This is Reilly's accounting "team" on parade, but they ain't talking till after the audit.


Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 5, 2018 - 07:24pm PT
I just saw a pic of my CPA’s new yacht. I might not be getting squat! 😬
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 5, 2018 - 08:20pm PT
For the first week of 2018, major U.S. stock indexes are up the most for any first week, since 2006.

Here's what stock-watcher Zacks has to say on the subject:

First Five Days

The "first five days" trend is like the January barometer but on a smaller scale. If the S&P; 500 finishes higher in the first five days of the year, there is an 86 percent chance the stock market will end the year higher, according to a "Wall Street Window" article written by Matt Rego in January 2012. Some analysts, including Mark Hulbert of Hulbert Financial Digest, claim investors would do better avoiding these trends altogether. In a January 2010 Market Watch article, Hulbert points out that investors scared off by a down January in 1982 would have missed the beginning of the greatest bull market in history: The markets gained 25 percent in the last 11 months of 1982.
https://finance.zacks.com/january-stock-market-trends-6977.html

Do you like the odds?

I note, after that great start to 2006, the S & P 500 ended up with a 15.1% gain for the year.
surfstar

climber
Santa Barbara, CA
Jan 5, 2018 - 10:44pm PT
I'll just summarize the thread for anyone just jumping in, like me:

Nobody knows nuthin'.





(that means stay the course. low-cost index funds FTW)
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 5, 2018 - 10:48pm PT
Surfstar! No arguement here, per your post:

I'll just summarize the thread for anyone just jumping in, like me:

Nobody knows nuthin'.





(that means stay the course. low-cost index funds FTW)


And the next stock market crash will happen very-soon, or not.
Mungeclimber

Trad climber
Nothing creative to say
Jan 11, 2018 - 06:13pm PT
2018

Hedge time.

Cash ain't trash.

Opportunistic investing year.

Anyone watching the VIX?
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 12, 2018 - 08:12am PT
The SP500 is pushing overbought prime/lines, selling at 26.5 earnings.

13 straight weeks with the investors intelligence survey bullish level over 60, which has never happened and the AAII survey bullish level at numbers not seen but twice since 2004.

The market is in need of pullback.

Is this the blow off top?
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 12, 2018 - 08:28am PT
P/E ratios are not sacrosanct. This could be the new norm. All economic indicators other
than bond yield curves are strong. Europe is doing much better than it has for a long time.
The only potential shocks I see are geo-political, Italian debt, or Canadian housing bubble,
in descending order of likelihood and magnitude. Of course, if too many Norwegians suddenly
move to the US we could be in trouble, mainly due to a lack of fish balls for them to eat.

I just found another potential shock:

https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21591164-getting-15-trillion-assets-single-risk-management-system-huge-achievement

I’m sure every major hacker in the world is drooling over this juicy target.
Off White

climber
Tenino, WA
Jan 12, 2018 - 11:53am PT
I am divesting all my other investments to stock up on Gjetost for the coming Norweigan influx. I hear it's a better bet than Fish Balls.

Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 12, 2018 - 05:36pm PT
Off White, fish balls keep longer, at least the tinned ones do. Those Norwegians might not
stay long so you don’t want to get stuck holding, ya know?
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 24, 2018 - 08:39am PT
Good article in Forbes:

Is The Stock Market Overvalued?

Jan 24, 2018 @ 11:31 AM

There's a great debate on Wall Street regarding the stock market's valuation right now. The market has soared since the historic 2009 low. Additionally, this is now the longest period in history we have not had a 5% decline in the S&P 500. That is leading many people to question whether or not the market is overvalued as we make our way into 2018.

There are many different ways to determine valuation and, for the most part, they are mostly subjective. For the scope of this article, I will be using the most common metric: The P/E ratio. On one hand, the bears argue that the stock market is overvalued and the bulls believe valuations are justified and the market has more room to rally. Let's take a closer look:

Price/Earnings Ratio:

The most common way to measure valuation is to use the price/earnings ratio (often shortened to the P/E ratio or the PER). The P/E ratio ratio looks at price vs earnings. Typically, one would take a company's stock price and compare it to the company's earnings per share. For the broader indices, one can take the average earnings of the components within the index to calculate the earnings side of the equation and compare it to the price.

Forward And Trailing:

The next step investors look at is to analyze forward and/or trailing earnings. Each has a different outcome. Currently, the market’s forward P/E ratio is above 19X. According to Factset, earnings growth remains strong, especially after the tax reform bill passed in December 2017.

What The Pros Are Saying:

Hedge fund billionaire, Leon Cooperman told CNBC that the stock market is not overvalued yet. Cooperman said the market is "reasonably fully valued" and because rates are low, valuations are justified here. I spoke to other portfolio managers and here is what they said:

Chad D. Roope, CFA Portfolio Manager – Fundamentum A Division of Stratos Wealth Partners, believes the market is not overvalued. He told me, "With approximately $10 in additional earnings from tax reform, the S&P 500 is trading around 18 times forward earnings. Close to where we entered 2017 (approx. 17x). While earnings are less of a concern to us currently, what investors eventually pay for these earnings is a bigger concern, especially if inflationary pressures increase. A loss of a modest 1 multiple point due to inflation concerns is an approximate 6% hit to equities alone. Without the onset of inflation, we’d expect equities to hold the multiple it has entering the year which could make 2018 another outstanding year for equity investors given the expected earnings growth. "

James D. Hiles, ChFC and Partner, at First Capital Advisors Group, made a great point about historic P/E levels. He told me via email, "There are more high-growth stocks in the S&P 500 than ever before and that given the tectonic shift from tangible assets on corporate balance sheets, to intangible assets, by definition P/E ratios should be higher than the historic norm. Also, if you take the S&P 500’s average P/E starting in 1990 through January of this year it is 23.85x. Currently the S&P is trading at around 18.6x forward earnings. We would also note that four companies dominate the S&P 500, accounting for 10% of the index, and trade at an average P/E of ~29x earnings skewing the P/E to the higher side."

Not everyone is bullish. Sarah L. Jones, CIO, The Pintin Group, a private family office in Europe, is worried that the market is overvalued and the bullish trade is a crowded trade. Sarah believes that valuations are stretched and is concerned that the bullish stock market trade is getting "very crowded."

Remember, In Bull Markets, Surprises Happen To The Upside:

If you go back and study history, this market is fully valued but not egregiously overvalued.

I would be remiss not to note that in bull markets (present market included), surprises happen to the upside, not the downside. So, just because the market is not "cheap" right now, doesn't mean it can't continue to rally.
dirtbag

climber
Jan 24, 2018 - 08:52am PT
The markets have gone up roughly 50% since July 2015. That’s a ton of growth for such a short period. Irrational exuberance? Maybe a bit.

I’m beginning to unwind from the markets somewhat, and not be too greedy. I’d rather pull out too soon than too late.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 24, 2018 - 09:22am PT
Yes, Dirt, I started cutting back on equities over a year ago. I’m now at about 52%. Even if there is a significant correction I think I’ll live long enough to ride it out. If not then it doesn’t matter - I ain’t takin’ it with me. The Audubon Society could be very happy.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 24, 2018 - 05:11pm PT
It's been one hellava January in the U.S. stock market.

The stock market is having its best start to year in more than three decades. Based on historical evidence, that spells even more gains for the rest of 2018.

When the S&P 500 posts a return of at least 5 percent by Jan. 23, the index's median return for the rest of the year has been 11.6 percent, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

"With a 6.1 percent year to date gain and just three down days in the fifteen trading days of 2018, nothing can seemingly stop this market in 2018," the firm's analysts wrote Wednesday.

The S&P 500 has already rallied 6.2 percent in January, posting only three down days and clinching its strongest showing since 1987. The Dow Jones industrial average is also having a banner start, closing above 26,000 one week ago as equities rocket even higher.

The S&P and Dow both notched all-time highs Wednesday morning before surrendering much of their gains.

"The history is pretty good for years where the first week starts off strong and the first month starts off strong," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley FBR. "It's hard to argue that the [stock] drivers are not going to be persistent: Synchronized global economic growth seems to be continuing, better than expected earnings … and we're also finding out how much corporate America's effective tax rates are coming down."
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/stocks-off-to-best-start-in-31-years-boding-well-for-2018/ar-AAv7ynF?li=BBnbfcL&pfr=1

So------we're on the train from Las Vegas to Los Angeles. Do you want to get off in Barstow? Stay invested!

And, sure as Schist, there will be another "10% to 20% Correction ------sometime.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 24, 2018 - 07:48pm PT
Funny we haven’t heard from Kingtut about our kneecaps lately, huh?
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 24, 2018 - 10:35pm PT
The bond yield curve is a metric just like P/E ratios. Neither are causative but do hold
associative value. Shocks cause pullbacks, or worse. The only likely shock would be
geo-political which, of course, would cause economic shocks which, of course create
buying opportunities. Let them eat cake.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 25, 2018 - 09:32am PT
frostie, if yer counting on yer portfolio for retirement and yer under 50 you’d be foolish to cut
back so drastically. My $.02.
Brian in SLC

Social climber
Salt Lake City, UT
Feb 2, 2018 - 02:31pm PT
Ugh...9-12 months at least?

What should we be looking for?

What are signs of a "melt up"?
Mungeclimber

Trad climber
Nothing creative to say
Feb 2, 2018 - 02:34pm PT
structurally, is there a reason to divest? Doubt it. World is not ending.

But dividend stocks over value, yes.


"The sell-off followed a spike in yields"

I would like to understand this better?
john hansen

climber
Feb 2, 2018 - 03:01pm PT
I am glad I shifted 6% to cash earlier this month.
divad

Trad climber
wmass
Feb 2, 2018 - 03:14pm PT
Will trump apologize or just blame Obama?
throwpie

Trad climber
Berkeley
Feb 2, 2018 - 03:21pm PT
Buy low sell high
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 2, 2018 - 05:11pm PT
I don't pay a lot of attention to the Dow Jones Industrials Index & usually follow the S & P 500 Index, since it is a better indication of what the U.S. large-cap stock market is up to.

However! I note the Dow Jones Index dropped 666 points today! It's a sure sign that Satan rules our nation & the end is near, ----- or not!

Back on Dec 31, 2017, I did make this prediction:

And what happens in 2018? I predict a 15% - 20% correction in the market at some point next year. I'm firm in predicting the U.S. stock market will either be up or down from its present point, by the end of 2018.

With the economy doing so well, even though Satan is at our helm, a correction (which this sell-off isn't------yet) is a buying opportunity, not a selling mandate.

Stiff upper lips lads!
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Feb 2, 2018 - 05:26pm PT
Guess we'll know by next week if this is just a correction.
Bruce Morris

Trad climber
Soulsbyville, California
Feb 2, 2018 - 08:41pm PT
I've been waiting in the wings for a long, long time now, waiting to snap up some bargains.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 2, 2018 - 09:43pm PT
Bruce Morris! Re your comment:

I've been waiting in the wings for a long, long time now, waiting to snap up some bargains.


Yes!

It is very hard for our minds to endure the agony of that market risk again, once we have "sold-out" of the stock market & converted gains (or losses) to cash:

then, while your cash is not at risk in the stock market, inflation erodes your cash, while the stock market makes big gains,------or not.

Adventurer

Mountain climber
Virginia
Feb 5, 2018 - 12:38pm PT
The DOW is experiencing its biggest single day drop in history! Currently down 903 points with less than thirty minutes left in business day.

Time to buy!!!
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 5, 2018 - 12:42pm PT
Time to buy!!!

Yup, a new Volvo with the cash I pulled out last year.

‘Let them eat Priuses.’ - Marie Aintbuyinyette
Mungeclimber

Trad climber
Nothing creative to say
Feb 5, 2018 - 12:43pm PT
Bought in, but strictly for the dividends. Much like certain magazines. hah
Risk

Mountain climber
Formerly TMJesse
Feb 5, 2018 - 01:23pm PT
I pulled everything out of stock funds and shifted into government securities on Jan 18, the day before the shutdown. With the next shutdown at the end of the week along with continued chaos.... So far, I've escaped a 5% drop.
dirtbag

climber
Feb 5, 2018 - 01:31pm PT
Whew. Sold a bunch of stuff last week—now hold over half bonds.
nature

climber
Boulder, CO
Feb 5, 2018 - 01:55pm PT
down 1175 in a day.

thank the piece of sh#t president will take credit for the biglyest drop in history?


#thankobama
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Feb 5, 2018 - 01:56pm PT
if the Elliot wave folks are right this is just wave 1 IF a major correction is happening. Wave 3 will be the big one
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Feb 5, 2018 - 02:07pm PT
Propbably right. No worries,Inflation outpacing wage growth never happens,resume gambling.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Feb 5, 2018 - 02:20pm PT
Laughing Hardly
tradryan

Big Wall climber
San Diego
Feb 5, 2018 - 02:31pm PT
"The sell-off followed a spike in yields"

Munge - Since yields are =(dividend payment/stock price) they are always inversely proportional. If a dividend stock's share price rises too much the yield goes down and the stock looks less enticing.

Although my portfolio is up up up.... the last weeks have been rough! I think Fritz talked about buying Ford Motor Co a long time ago when I was reading through this and I was feeling proud because I bought at 10.94 before it went to 13.50. Now I'm feeling less proud with it at 10.24! At least the dividend payments make it easy to swallow.

Give it a day, then probably BUY BUY BUY! NLY is in the gutter too with a strong yield. Enticing. And then there's APO and TWMJF. Never thought of myself as a gambler (haha, yea right, compared to climbing these risks are mundane)
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Feb 5, 2018 - 02:39pm PT
Lets see what happens tomorrow,...
'Pass the Pitons' Pete

Big Wall climber
like Ontario, Canada, eh?
Feb 5, 2018 - 03:20pm PT
Everything is on sale!

BUY BUY BUY!!!
briham89

Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
Feb 5, 2018 - 03:36pm PT
Man I bought MCK a couple weeks ago hoping I would make around 10% on what is shaping up to be a shaky year. I hit 14% in 2 weeks.....got greedy and didn't sell (had great momentum)...now it's negative -_-
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 5, 2018 - 03:42pm PT
Bitchcoin’s a bargain at $6250!!!!!!
ruppell

climber
Feb 5, 2018 - 06:50pm PT
down 1175 in a day.

thank the piece of sh#t president will take credit for the biglyest drop in history?


While I won't get into a POS POTUS discussion here I will correct some flawed logic.

It's the biggest single POINT drop in history. Not at all unusual since the DOW is higher then it's ever been. Using percentage as a basis it's a 4.6% drop.

In 87 Black Monday produced a single day drop of 22.6% just for comparison.

Is this the end of the drop. Probably not. Is this the start of another major recession? Probably not.

Am I still buying. Yep. But I have 20 years until I retire.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 5, 2018 - 07:34pm PT
tradryan! Per your mention:
I think Fritz talked about buying Ford Motor Co a long time ago when I was reading through this

It's unlikely I advised buying Ford, even if I was drunk. Heidi drives a F-150 & I have a lot of respect for what the company does, but I always considered them a bad investment (for me) due to my perception of them having a high risk & little reward.

Ruppel! Thanks for sharing your perspective on how this piddily little sell-off ranks vs the 1987 panic.

Keep those lips-stiff lads. This won't be over, until a sudden rebound, that just kills those who paniced & the "market-timers."
tradryan

Big Wall climber
San Diego
Feb 5, 2018 - 09:33pm PT
It's unlikely I advised buying Ford, even if I was drunk.

Fair enough! I swear somebody up thread mentioned it but I'm not about to go read through again. I bought a couple hundred shares for fun and was rather shocked to see it do so well, for a time.
Jon Beck

Trad climber
Oceanside
Feb 5, 2018 - 09:55pm PT
Saw a banner ad on my phone the other day that was pushing bitcoin as a great IRA investment. Yikes!
JC Marin

Trad climber
CA
Feb 5, 2018 - 10:07pm PT
Welcome to the actual Trump economy--wonder why Trump is talking about the stock market today?

We are going to miss the Obama economy for sure...
matty

Trad climber
under the sea
Feb 5, 2018 - 10:19pm PT
Man I bought MCK a couple weeks ago hoping I would make around 10% on what is shaping up to be a shaky year. I hit 14% in 2 weeks.....got greedy and didn't sell (had great momentum)...now it's negative -_-

I believe that if this is how you treat investing you will repeat this fate many more times compared to when come out on top. No one can time the market and those that have tried have all failed given enough time. There is a reason why actively managed funds (and most private accounts) haven't beaten the market average for any significant length of time.

I'm sorry to hear about your (potential) loss and have gotten burned like that a few times myself. I sometimes take a shot on a risky stock, but luckily only with "play" money. This is a small portion of my portofilio (like maybe 1 percent) that I treat like gambling money...I only play with what I can lose.

Buy the whole market and you're guaranteed to get the market average return. Best way to do this is through lost cost index funds and perhaps some individual stocks too...some big companies are nearly an index fund in and of themselves (I looking at you BRKB).

I would highly recommend "the little book of common sense investing" by John Bogle. The author lays down a very convincing investment philosophy for anyone whose goal is long term investment (retirement). The philosophy is supported by logical arguments and tons of data is presented to back it up. Nothing sexy about it, just a boring routine of saving and investing, but historically it has been the most successful way to invest on average.

Maybe you already know all this and I'm just wasting electrons, but maybe not, and perhaps someone else will read it and benefit. Best wishes-

Matt

Chris Roderick

climber
Feb 6, 2018 - 05:54am PT
I am indeed skeered, somebody hold me please :-(
Gnome Ofthe Diabase

climber
Out Of Bed
Feb 6, 2018 - 06:00am PT
YES YES BUY FORD
White weirdos with comfy money, the dossier is mostly tru So for those of you, most ?,
who schmucked-up and voted for an oligarchs' stooge
- with more money than smarts too,
you have now to accept that elections have consequences'
The goal was to strip existence of You. - The . . . ? what was it we called it?

middle class

but ya did kill off that pesky death tax,so I guess, Yup, Thank You
Gnome Ofthe Diabase

climber
Out Of Bed
Feb 6, 2018 - 06:34am PT
!~(:9:30 am EST





Opening Bell





Sell Sell Sell
Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Feb 6, 2018 - 06:39am PT
Everything is on sale!

Not yet. Wait six months.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Feb 6, 2018 - 06:48am PT
Sell on the open?

Good call Gnome.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Feb 6, 2018 - 08:57am PT
Huge volume (yesterday's drop wasn't even in the top 20 percentage wise).

I'm looking to dollar cost average if Apple drops to $156.
healyje

Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
Feb 6, 2018 - 09:52am PT
Looks like the world is in a learning curve of how to deal with volatility driven by high-speed trading. I don't believe we have a very good handle on all the conditions that can trigger instantaneous high trading volumes or when and how humans should intervene.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-05/machines-had-their-fingerprints-all-over-a-dow-rout-for-the-ages
StahlBro

Trad climber
San Diego, CA
Feb 6, 2018 - 09:59am PT
[Click to View YouTube Video]
Larry Nelson

Social climber
Feb 6, 2018 - 10:24am PT
Hey matty,
Smart advice about the futility of trying to time the market.
I've always seen Wall St as a slot machine... unless you invest for retirement with some diverse funds and ride it through several business cycles.

Real estate is another investment you have to ride through a business cycle or two in order to secure a positive cash flow. Without a juicy pension, just one paid off rental house can make that difference.

ruppell,
Excellent comments for perspective on market corrections.

healyje posted
Looks like the world is in a learning curve of how to deal with volatility driven by high-speed trading. I don't believe we have a very good handle on all the conditions that can trigger instantaneous high trading volumes or when and how humans should intervene.

Thanks for that link healyje
Artificial Intelligence firewalls to oversee the AI trading? Yikes.
We live in interesting times.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Feb 6, 2018 - 02:27pm PT
Back up 567, but there will be another drop to "test" the bottom, probably soon.

When people are running for the door is a good time to buy.
I got some great deals in '87.
healyje

Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
Feb 6, 2018 - 02:41pm PT
I believe 'ratcheting' (up or down) is kind of built into machine algorithms as they move prices on one hand and then try to take advantage of that same movement on the other.
john hansen

climber
Feb 6, 2018 - 02:42pm PT
"Buy when there is blood in the streets"
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 8, 2018 - 08:07pm PT
frostback! Re your thoughts:

guess you can always average down.....
yours in cold eyed, taking-cash-off-the-table in classic bubble territory.

It is important, not to panic & sell in a somewhat different downturn like this.

Stiff upper lips lads, while the market is controlled by fools & computer selling programs.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 8, 2018 - 08:34pm PT
Anybody who didn’t think this was coming deserves a good whip-sawing. I honestly thought it
would come later this year but, having prepared for it, I’m enjoying all the wailing and gnashing
of teeth. What I’m really pissed about is Volvo messing up my special order for pickup in
Gothenberg. They left me only 14 weeks to make my travel reservations! How rude is that?
Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Feb 9, 2018 - 07:02am PT
Sell, sell, sell. Remember what happened last time they cut taxes and increased spending?

Reilly, you getting one of the new hybrids? We saw one on display at the Rose Bowl a few months ago. The gal said Volvo would pay for our flight to Gothenberg and put us up in a hotel while we picked out our new Volvo.
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Feb 9, 2018 - 07:41am PT
Well, I don't like what I'm seeing at all. From an article earlier today by Thom Hartmann:

The entire “economic recovery” since 2008 has been based on artificially cheap money/credit, and depends on that remaining the case to maintain the appearance of stability...

...So, as soon as the Fed over the past month stopped buying bonds (also known as “ending Quantitative Easing”) and instead started selling them to get them off its balance sheet, US government bonds began to flood into the market.

As everybody knows, when there’s not as much demand as there is supply of something, an incentive is necessary to encourage buyers. In the case of debt, what that means is that the interest offered to induce people to buy debt must rise.

Thus interest rates on government bonds began to go up, to encourage the Chinese, Japanese, and Saudis to buy the US government debt that the Fed was unloading. At the same time, the Chinese and Saudis let the world know that they weren’t interested in buying more US government debt, further increasing the interest that bonds have to pay to find other buyers.

The additional $1.5 trillion to finance the Trump tax plan will just make things that much worse. Hartmann put "economic recovery" in quotes because our seemingly robust economy depends desperately on extremely cheap money--i.e., Fed rates very near zero. The current stock market drop is just a leading indicator of recession--which is likely to come if interest rates continue to rise.

Curt
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Feb 9, 2018 - 08:54am PT
. I'm looking to dollar cost average if Apple drops to $156

Done and done.
I'm in for the long haul and, so far, that has gone very well, although the real turning point was when dividend income exceeded living expenses.
krahmes

Social climber
Stumptown
Feb 9, 2018 - 09:56am PT
[Click to View YouTube Video]
StahlBro

Trad climber
San Diego, CA
Feb 9, 2018 - 10:33am PT
tRump's only comment on the market

"Making a big mistake!"

WTF? Who the hell is he talking to?

I guess that is what you get from someone who does not read and gets all his "oral briefings" from Faux news pundits kneeling before him.

Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 9, 2018 - 11:14am PT
This is a 10% correction. BFD. The sellers are FOMOs and dumb asses who didn’t plan accordingly.

BTW, Gary, I’m a lttle embarrassed to admit we didn’t get the hybrid. If we lived in a more
progressive state like Colorado the numbers woulda made it a no-brainer. Besides, with the
weight of the batteries the real world mpg numbers I’ve seen aren’t greatly better than the
regular ride.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 9, 2018 - 11:34am PT
Robert, The Economist has good introductory subscription rates. Or you can surf the web
and look at historical records. What is immutable is that with the increased involvement of
central banks recessions have been getting shorter and less frequent and recoveries are
more rapid. Will inflation suddenly blow up and turn this into an actual recession? There is
nothing to suggest that - the world’s economy has never been better and capitalism has
dragged many millions kicking and screaming out of dire poverty. I’m sure you will correct
me on that.
Jon Beck

Trad climber
Oceanside
Feb 9, 2018 - 11:42am PT
We are not even close to going down the path Greece is on. The problem over there is they had no economy to back up the borrowing. Their debt-to-GDP ratio is 180%, ours is a little over 100.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 9, 2018 - 01:57pm PT
There will be a poin at which nobody wants to buy our debt.

Where do you guys dream this stuff up? Even some Republicans are smarter than that.
StahlBro

Trad climber
San Diego, CA
Feb 9, 2018 - 01:57pm PT
That will be a while, but the debt payments will haunt our budget for a long time.
StahlBro

Trad climber
San Diego, CA
Feb 9, 2018 - 04:54pm PT
Yep, the future is being sacrificed on the altar of "I got mine".


[Click to View YouTube Video]
yosemite 5.9

climber
santa cruz
Feb 10, 2018 - 06:08pm PT
I made $1,400 in gains in the last hour on Friday. hopefully it will last.

I don't follow chartists. Though I will consider them as secondary evidence.

the computer programs that create these selloffs provide good buying opportunities.

Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 10, 2018 - 07:42pm PT
Yosemite 5.9!

Your gains late on Friday, when all involved, except for the computer programs, thought the market would tank some more, are impressive.

I can tell, you are one hellavu stock-picker.
Bruce Morris

Trad climber
Soulsbyville, California
Feb 10, 2018 - 08:25pm PT
Market hasn't gotten nearly low enough for me to start buying. At least, no yet . . . Only things I've been buying lately are Augustus Saint Gaudens double eagles MS 66. They're not going to wither and go away.
Bruce Morris

Trad climber
Soulsbyville, California
Feb 11, 2018 - 12:49pm PT
While if you are hoping to become comfortably financially independent now, through the stock guessing game, you have to play it like a casino, and not believe that you have won anything if you are still playing at the table.

That's why if you want to beat the House, you have to have mo' money than the House.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Feb 12, 2018 - 02:49pm PT
.the computer programs that create these selloffs provide good buying opportunities.
Precisely right!




On Thursday I said,
there will be another drop to "test" the bottom, probably soon.


Sometimes I even scare myself.


Apple closed above $163.
Back in the black and awaiting dividends.

(Missed an opportunity with Citigroup though)
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 12, 2018 - 06:54pm PT
Dropped mi iPhone in Sam Maloof’s garden Thursday, appropriately enough, and broke the
screen. That was a buy signal, right?

Robert, you’d do well to heed TV, he’s got a good track record, on many fronts.
Jon Beck

Trad climber
Oceanside
Feb 14, 2018 - 06:09am PT
CEO for Goldman Sachs has not felt this good since 2006 (said with a smirk on his weaselly face). That is the que for the little guy to grab his socks.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 14, 2018 - 12:54pm PT
Now it’s only a 6% correction. meh
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Feb 14, 2018 - 02:52pm PT
Thanks Reilly.

Robert L, I plan to raise some of those issues at a stockholder's meeting. I guess its easier just to whine on a climber's forum though, but less effective.

Berkshire Hathaway just bought Apple today, so I'm not the only one optimistic.


People were worried about inflation. Crude has crept over $60.
But a little inflation is a good thing.
Hell, we could see the Dow over 30K before 2020.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Feb 14, 2018 - 03:31pm PT
Dead cat bounce.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 15, 2018 - 09:33am PT
Well, his house is still worth the tour every few years. I don’t get paying $12 Large for a chair
built by one of his minions. Paintings by Botticelli’s students don’t bring $20 million, do they?

The cat is bouncing higher as we speak. Markets are now up for the year.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 15, 2018 - 10:39am PT
Reilly! Gud catch on noting that as of now, the markets are up for the year.

Here's a snapshot of S&P 500 gains as of a few seconds ago.


YTD Return %
1.76%

6-Months Return
10.34%

1-Year Return
15.45%

I'll be dipped in dog-schist!

The markets shrugged off inflation data & got to taking advantage of bargains.

Of couse, the fat Trump hasn't sang yet.

briham89

Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
Feb 15, 2018 - 11:29am PT
[Click to View YouTube Video]
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Feb 15, 2018 - 12:51pm PT
The volatility is annoying, but the fundamentals still look good.

Isn't the Chinese symbol for "crisis"" the same as for "opportunity"?
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 15, 2018 - 01:26pm PT
TV! Per your mention:
Isn't the Chinese symbol for "crisis"" the same as for "opportunity"?


I seem to recall that, along with the ancient Chinese curse:

May you live in interesting times.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 15, 2018 - 01:32pm PT
TV, you don’t have to self-incriminate but I find it quite the coinkidink that Warren Buffett piled
into Apple a day or so after you did. jess sayin’...
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Feb 15, 2018 - 01:34pm PT
I don't know if interesting is a curse, but sure describes my life.


My broker just called to compliment me!
His Corvette is faster than my Z4, but I am more nimble.
He is a bond guy, but during the course of our relationship I have gone from being worth 2/3 of his net worth to him being 7/8 of mine.

Bonds are just a reserve. Stocks will get you rich if you can sack up.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Feb 15, 2018 - 01:35pm PT
Is Warren still making the calls?

Glad to see they bought at over $3 over my average cost.
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Feb 15, 2018 - 01:44pm PT
My broker just called to compliment me!

The 80s called--they want their brokers back!
(Sorry, just the concept of a broker in relation to stocks isn't something I've thought about for a long time.)
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 16, 2018 - 08:45am PT
That dead cat is bouncing like a nerf ball!


And for those of you of a more nerdy bent...

...and the justification of my transfer of equities into bonds last year:
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 16, 2018 - 10:21am PT
Reilly: Thanks for the charts. Per your transferring mostly to bonds last year, I took a quick look at my Vanguard funds YTD this morning.

All the bond funds are in the red by 0.1% to 2% ytd & all the stock funds are in the black ytd. Part of the joy of owning bonds in a rising interest rate environment.

Of course, in the long run, you'll be drinking fine wines in Europe & I'll be making wine out of moldy apricots here in Choss Creek;)


That "Dead Cat" is bouncing darn good this week. Supposedly this is the best week in the stock market since 2011. Those who have been waiting for the bottom to buy, may well have missed it by a week, but they can always wait for the next bottom, which is on its way.

The great thing about waiting for stocks to bottom, is that markets always eventually tank, at some point.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 16, 2018 - 10:28am PT
Fritzi, I’m actually 50:50 eq:bonds, because I’M GREEDY! Yes, I knew the reallocation would
be a little painful for a while but at this point I’m more concerned with conservation than
accumulation, kinda like wine making. 😉
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Feb 16, 2018 - 11:41am PT
My broker is also a friend, a member of the tribe, and a trusted advisor.

He looks out for me, answers my call 24/7, and would bail me out with his own money.


The '80s calling? Lucky me!
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 23, 2018 - 07:15am PT
I share a link to an interesting (to me) article in the Wall Street Journal today. I find it interesting that once you get away from their editorial support of Trump & his tax cut, their writers share real concerns about what it may actually do for, or to, our economy.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/spotted-some-possible-good-news-in-rising-bond-yields/ar-BBJtakP

Certainly economists are treating White House forecasts of a productivity renaissance with skepticism. Nathan Sheets, chief economist at PGIM Fixed Income and a former Treasury official, expects the Trump tax cuts to boost economic growth by 0.5 percentage point or a little more for each of the next two years. But he predicts only an annual 0.1 point extra on long-run potential growth, resulting from higher corporate investment.

The huge federal deficits likely to be incurred in the latest U.S. budget come at a time when the jobs market is already tight and there are signs that wage rises may, finally, be accelerating.


The tax cuts add fiscal fuel only poured in this amount into a late-cycle economy twice since World War II, according to Gerard Minack, of Sydney-based Minack Advisors: the Vietnam war spending of the late 1960s and the 1986 Reagan tax cut. In both periods bond yields rose sharply as inflation picked up, while stocks soared, plunged and then soared again before the eventual recession.
These thoughts on when rising bond yields start to effect the stock market, were of the most interest to me.

The problem for shareholders watching the bond market is that rising inflation expectations are good for stocks until they are bad. One theory for why is simple enough. When investors are worried about deflation, higher inflation reduces the danger and so helps stocks even as it pushes up bond yields. Deflation fears have now gone away, so the question is at what point inflation fears will take over, and rising bond yields be bad for stocks.

One answer is when yields reach the point where they anticipate the Fed actively trying to slow the economy. Higher yields will no longer mean higher profits, leaving nothing to offset the hit to valuations that comes with a higher discount rate.

In economic terms this means bonds being priced for an interest rate above the so-called neutral rate, either because inflation is getting out of hand or because the Fed has made a mistake; either would be bad for both shares and bonds. Fed policy makers estimate the long-run neutral fed-funds rate is 2.8%, about where the 10-year currently stands, but bonds typically offer extra yield to compensate for uncertainty over their term.

Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist, Jonathan Golub, thinks the switch happens at a 10-year yield of 3.5%, above which further rises start to be progressively worse for stocks. He derives the number by looking at how stocks performed just on days when yields rose, with a strong relationship since 2014 showing stocks gained less the higher yields were.

In the past the number was much higher, averaging above 7% since 1980, but Mr. Golub says it has dropped because investors, like the Fed, think a weaker economy can’t cope with such high rates as it once could.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts say the “sweet spot” for shares is a 10-year Treasury yield between 1% and 3%, with stocks more likely to fret about rises above that.

Investors shouldn’t get hung up on any precise number, as the turning point is inherently uncertain and shifts with changing beliefs about the economy.

What is more certain is that there’s a regime shift under way. In the past few years investors justified buying shares at very high valuations because bonds looked even worse. As Treasury yields rise, expensive shares will look less attractive—so companies will need the prospect of big rises in profits to maintain their appeal. The more it is real rather than nominal bond yields rising, the better for shareholders.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 23, 2018 - 08:26am PT
Reuters today:

The U.S. Federal Reserve, looking past a recent stock market sell-off and concern about inflation, said it sees steady growth continuing and no serious risks on the horizon the might pause its planned pace of rate hikes.
"The economic expansion continues to be supported by steady job gains, rising household wealth, favorable consumer sentiment, strong economic growth abroad, and accommodative financial conditions," the Fed's Washington-based Board of Governors wrote in its semiannual report to Congress on monetary policy. "Upbeat business sentiment appears to have supported solid growth over the past year."

The Fed noted that even after the sell-off, and taking account of the higher corporate profits likely to flow from the recent tax cuts and support higher stock prices, "valuation pressures continue to be elevated across a range of asset classes, including equities and commercial real estate."
The use of leverage "has been increasing in some areas," the Fed said, noting in particular "the provision of margin credit to equity investors such as hedge funds" and other parts of the "nonbank financial sector." Household debt has also risen as has business sector leverage "particularly among speculative-grade firms."
Still, the Fed said, "overall vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system remain moderate on balance," with banks better buffeted against any trouble due to their "strong capital position." Even at their current high level, the Fed noted, stock price-to-earnings ratios were still below those during the exuberant late 1990s.

In general, that document portrayed an economy whose households had achieved record levels of wealth - by September 2017 household net worth was 6.7 times disposable income, the highest reading in that series - with no obvious instabilities to risk continued steady progress.

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Net worth = 6.7 x disposable income? I have been telling La Femme we aren’t spending enough.






Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 23, 2018 - 08:57am PT
Reilly! Per your remark:
Net worth = 6.7 x disposable income? I have been telling La Femme we aren’t spending enough.

Last year, the old saying: "I've got more time than money" popped into my mind while reviewing our finances.

I later reported to Heidi that unless something goes very wrong, it strongly appears "we have more money than time."

She of course, immediately added the corollary, that we obviously need to spend more money.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 23, 2018 - 09:04am PT
Fritz, I’m concerned that I’ve more money than time. And based on what I’ve experienced at the hands of ‘medical science’ lately I need to start spending a lot more. I’m on record with La Femme - we go business or you go alone - I’m KNOTT riding in back with the crankloons!
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Feb 24, 2018 - 05:54pm PT
Came to the same conclusion recently. Need to spend more and enjoy life, can't take it with me.

Of course I'm in the market for brood mares. They say if you have to ask what it costs to keep horses you can't afford to, so my perspective might change.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 24, 2018 - 06:56pm PT
Interesting article on Reuters today- Warren Buffet says anybody in bonds is stoopid. 😳
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 24, 2018 - 07:40pm PT
Reilly! I also read that article on Buffet & his thoughts on bonds, with interest. It needed more details, but I appreciate we need to stay invested mostly in stocks, but, it is also usually good for Buffet's empire, if we buy stocks.

I do like the oft-repeated story about his winning the $1,000,000.00 bet with a hedge-fund manager, that a Vanguard mutual fund which tracks S & P 500 stocks, would out-perform a basket of actively-managed hedge funds, over a 10 year period. The outcome wasn't even close, Vanguard won.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Mar 23, 2018 - 01:20pm PT
The Dow finished at 23,531.72 — down more than 1,400 points for the week. It was the lowest close since November 2017. Meanwhile, NASDAQ dropped below 7,000 points.

Where do we go from here?
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Mar 23, 2018 - 03:00pm PT
The economy is strong. Trump's trade war will be strongly influenced by
Wall Street. Even he will get the message and back off. We needed this
correction. Inflows to equity mutual funds were at their highest in a long
time last month so the FOMO's got hammered, as well they should. Europe is
in a much more vulnerable position. That's why I felt sorry for them and
sent a bundle to Gothenburg, Sweden today. The ECB is like the sheriff who
is afraid to use his gun: they'll respect you for a while but eventually yer
gonna have to draw down!
labrat

Trad climber
Erik O. Auburn, CA
Mar 23, 2018 - 03:08pm PT
"Where do we go from here?"

Play the lotto?
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Mar 23, 2018 - 03:13pm PT
You'll meet some nice people in the soup kitchen lines, braj!
john hansen

climber
Mar 23, 2018 - 03:19pm PT
Two years ago..

March 6th 2016


Dow was at 17007, Nasdaq was 4717, and S and P was at 2000.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Mar 23, 2018 - 04:48pm PT
October? Everyone? BwaHaHa! Are you the Great Karnak?
Norton

climber
The Wastelands
Mar 23, 2018 - 05:40pm PT
well, at today's closing the DOW 30 is only down some 3000 points from its high

the last time the Republicans had control of the Presidency and Congress
the Dow fell over 50% from over 14,000 to almost 7000

because, you know, when your party refuses to regulate both the mortgage market and also Collateralized Debt Obligations, well then all hell breaks loose

and so now again we have children in charge of the Presidency and Congress

and they have already weakened the Dodd-Frank Financial Regulations legislation

let's see, another 50% drop with them in charge would take the DOW down to 13,000

would that "skeer ya"? probably not, because you would just "ride it out"
meanwhile, billions are being made by being short the market, ever heard of that?
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Mar 23, 2018 - 05:52pm PT
Norton? Re your post:

would that "skeer ya"? probably not, because you would just "ride it out"
meanwhile, billions are being made by being short the market, ever heard of that?


I would respect your opinion more, if you hadn't posted this bit of your history in the "Trump has entered the Querencia Phase of his presidency"
thread today.

You posted:
AMNESIA - go back to election day of 2007, Obama V McCain

Sorry, but that was in 2008.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Mar 23, 2018 - 06:03pm PT
youll see...

I have the research department of the world’s biggest mutual fund company at my fingertips.
I know, they’re part of the problem, right? Besides, what the hell do they know?

Come October, you show me yers and I’ll show you mine. Wait, that didn’t sound right!
StahlBro

Trad climber
San Diego, CA
Mar 23, 2018 - 06:35pm PT
1. Stimulate the economy with false promises.
2. Cash out
3. Crater the economy
4. Lose the next election
5. Blame the Dem’s for not fixing it fast enough
6. Win the next election with a moron.
7. Repeat
Norton

climber
The Wastelands
Mar 23, 2018 - 06:45pm PT
good catch, Fritz

I typed the election year wrongly, thanks for pointing that out
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Mar 28, 2018 - 01:54pm PT
With the VIX as high as it has been, and with the lows repeatedly tested, I might have to modify from buy and hold to surfing the bounces.

At $16.25 Century Link is paying 13% dividend.
I'm a buyer,..
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Mar 28, 2018 - 02:09pm PT
Wow! Just did my taxes. I got dinged on dividends last year. I know, get yer violins out.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Mar 28, 2018 - 04:33pm PT
Reilly! Per your post:
Wow! Just did my taxes. I got dinged on dividends last year. I know, get yer violins out

I feel your pain!

In retirement, my Line 37 adjusted Gross Income is up 33.1% for 2017, due to dividends & distributions.


Fuking Trump!
MikeL

Social climber
Southern Arizona
Mar 28, 2018 - 08:56pm PT
Try to relax, Fritz. Nobody can do anything about anything. That’s why you should buy the market.
john hansen

climber
Mar 28, 2018 - 09:15pm PT
Just for fun in May of 2014 I bought 100 shares of Tesla at $196.

It went up to $381 at one point. A couple days ago I sold 50 shares at $287..

Next week could be real rough for Tesla if they don't come close to their production predictions.


Maybe at some point in time I would put that money back into Tesla, and I still have 50 shares , but I would sell the other 50 % if it gets down close to $196.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Mar 29, 2018 - 12:34pm PT
As we all know "Figures never lie, but liers do a lot of figuring."

Bearing in mind, the current somewhat troubled state of the stock market, possibly due to the simple fact that a crazy man is now our President, it helps me to look back a ways at annual S & P 500 Index returns, with dividends added, per the following chart. https://ycharts.com/indicators/sandp_500_total_return_annual


The 2018 return shown was as of March 3 & can be ignored.

Some things I find of interest are, our much-hated ex-president Obama never suffered a negative year in the S & P 500 Index, if you include dividends. George Bush suffered 3 awful years, & Bill Clinton had one down year, his last in office.

I strongly suspect we won't be as lucky under our current president, but one ray of hope for those who stay invested is: After the S & P 500 tanked 37% in 2008, the first two years of Obama's presidentcy saw a combined gain of 41.52%. Those who stayed invested, made back their losses, if they were skilled & lucky enough to pick winning stocks, or smart enough to buy low-fee mutual funds that tracked the S & P 500 index.

I also have had mostly good luck with Vanguard Actively-traded funds with managers who were skilled & smart enough to pick winning stocks.

Good luck folks, it looks like an "interesting" year for investors.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Mar 29, 2018 - 03:44pm PT
The POTUS’ effect on markets is pretty negligible usually.
The POTUS is Rod Carew to the Fed chair’s Micky Mantle.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Mar 29, 2018 - 04:21pm PT
Reilly! Re your mention:
The POTUS’ effect on markets is pretty negligible usually.
The POTUS is Rod Carew to the Fed chair’s Micky Mantle.


I agree for our "usual" presidents, but Trump is a most "unusual" president. Also, if he is going to brag about how good he has been for stocks in the strong economy he inherited, I'm more than happy to blame him when markets are down;)
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Mar 29, 2018 - 04:50pm PT
Well, he is a touch ‘unusual’. What I should have said was that I believe the POTUS has
the potential for more downside influence than upside.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Apr 5, 2018 - 01:31pm PT
This volatility is amazing. A thousand points up in barely 24 hours??

Surfs up!
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Apr 5, 2018 - 03:54pm PT
The market is always right, but it needs a while to catch its breath. That’s why I’m neutral for the duration. Neither a buyer nor a seller be. I’m just a spender for a while. I am convinced that we’re looking at the new normal vis a vis valuations combined with somewhat reduced returns. I’m quite enjoying the trade contratemps because China is posturing and blowing smoke. They need us more than vice versa, if only marginally. In the end we will come to a new understanding that is fairer and more realistic.
Norton

climber
The Wastelands
Apr 5, 2018 - 05:05pm PT

DOW futures opened down around 400 pts after the cash market closed, now down 300

due to the US President's statement this afternoon that he will add another $100 billion in tariffs to China trade with us

we elected a 4th grader

Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Apr 5, 2018 - 05:18pm PT
You clowns have no idea about China’s house of cards. I strongly suggest y’all read something other than The Daily Worker.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Apr 5, 2018 - 05:38pm PT
The trade war
is not something Trump is starting.
He is just finally standing up to the Chinese trade war.

China has been waging a trade war upon us for the last 30 years.
They should never have been allowed in the WTO.
When they were allowed in it was based on claims that they would practice "free trade."
Every country has some trade restrictions yet many overall can be summarized as free traders.
China does not fall into that category.
They have never had free trade.
They don't have a society based on laws.

China already has a tariff of 25% on imported cars.
The USA has a tariff of only 2.5% on most cars.
Foreign companies doing business in China are forced to give away typically 50% ownership to a Chinese kelptocrat.

China has been stealing and copying designs and technology for decades, claiming it is their right as a developing country.
Every year for the last 15 years they claim they are going to start clamping down on piracy. They never do.
https://www.uscnpm.org/blog/2016/05/03/stamping-it-out/

Ever seen the Chinese copy of the Landrover Evoque?
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/guangzhou-motor-show/land-rover-complain-about-chinese-copy-range-rover-evoque
http://driving.ca/lexus/auto-news/entertainment/top-10-chinese-rip-off-cars-vs-their-original-designs

captions are on the right starting with #21
http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/87771/chinese-copycat-cars-pictures#21
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Apr 5, 2018 - 06:39pm PT
Pizzaman! re your mention:

Or how about a tariff on Chinese made climbing equipment????

Sounds Great! How about a 100% tariff on Chinese made outdoor gear & clothing?

Would U.S. folks stop buying outdoor gear & clothing, almost all of which is made in Asia?

Would you die, or suffer horribly, if your next tent or sleeping bag cost twice as much?

Worse yet!! Would you quit camping?




(By the way, I am otherwise anti-tariff.)
john hansen

climber
Apr 5, 2018 - 07:57pm PT
Imagine if Trump figured out he could make money tweeting..

Tell your friends to short Amazon , and then attack them.



The ultimate insider trading.



EDIT: Fritz , I know about Bezo's and the Washington Post.


And I think you are right that he is attacking only his critics,so far.

But what if you knew in advance what he was going to do?




Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Apr 5, 2018 - 08:03pm PT
John! I think Trump is on his Amazon witch-hunt, since Amazon's CEO owns the Washington Post, which has been ripping on Trump's large-ass for the last few years.

Yes! That has caused Amazon stock to tank, but I don't believe Trump cares about making stocks tank, unless they belong to his critics.
Jon Beck

Trad climber
Oceanside
Apr 6, 2018 - 11:43am PT
hahaha Moose, so you went big AND went home.

yeah, wait till China starts cashing in bonds, we ain't seen nuttin yet.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Apr 7, 2018 - 02:22pm PT
Haven't been so happy to hit the weekend in a long time.
Norton

climber
The Wastelands
Apr 7, 2018 - 02:37pm PT

another great week with huge profits for those short the equities futures, ETF's, etc

Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Apr 7, 2018 - 07:55pm PT
Norton! Re your comment:

another great week with huge profits for those short the equities futures, ETF's, etc

I have two friends, who back around 1998, had quite a bit of Inheritance money to play with. They both took a course on how to "short the market."

After a few years, they had both lost all their Inheritance money.

I appreciate those here, who are gifted, skilled, & very lucky, might well know what stocks to short.

This thread is for the rest of us, who are not as gifted, skilled, & lucky, as you.

It is for the Buy & Hold mutual fund Fudds.

Norton! Good luck to you!
jstan

climber
Apr 7, 2018 - 10:27pm PT
Oh, Reilly, pleeeeaaaase.

China has the upper hand. Just watch what she will do to the US government bonds.

Sell, sell, sell!

In the face of recent uncertainties, yields for US debt have not increased as expected by the US bond bears. And exchange rates for the dollar also are not changing significantly. I have read China's policy is not to replace short bonds as they mature. If this is so the selling is taking place in a specific maturity niche.

China has to do something with the dollars it is forced to hold due to our balance of payments deficit. If they move out of the dollar rates of return are much lower than what is available in US debt and they have to worry about changes in exchange rate. Also anyone holding a trillion dollars in securities has to love the liquidity of the US market. Here big debt actually is better. In other considerations, not so much. China's targeted tariffs suggests we are dealing with sophisticated thinkers. Such do still exist. For us here in the US that is, oddly, reassuring.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Apr 9, 2018 - 09:39am PT
Woohoo! 2018 looks to be a wild ride in the stock market.

From this USA Today article:


http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/stock-market-2018-expect-dow-volatility-as-trade-war-trump-talk-spark-fear/ar-AAvCYdl

There have already been 27 trading days in 2018 on which the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index has closed up or down by more than 1%, compared to just eight days in all of last year, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. If the current pace of 1% swings persists through year-end, it would put the large-company stock index on track for its most volatile year since the financial crisis.



Smith says Wall Street doesn't want tariffs or a trade war and expects the market to remain bumpy until there's more clarity on how the U.S. conflict with China will play out.

Farr's advice to investors in these turbulent times?
"Be sure of the risks you are assuming and that you are comfortable with those risks," he advised. "Don't let emotion, either euphoria or despair, lead you astray. The return of volatility doesn't necessarily mean the bull market is over or that equities are bad investments."


Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Apr 10, 2018 - 11:41am PT
Agreed, though it is unsettling.


I hope they give the Zuck what for. Apology tour indeed.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Apr 10, 2018 - 03:06pm PT
When I left they were still grilling him.

I'd draw a cartoon of his coaches teaching him to say, "I'll try to get my team to provide that information for you."

Sheesh!
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Apr 19, 2018 - 02:04pm PT
Anybody watching crude? Up 30% in 12 months. Once it tops 70 everything will go up.

You might even see the ten year hit three and a quarter.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Apr 19, 2018 - 02:09pm PT
Yes! Crude is up, because I was overweight in Energy & now we are weighted about right. Of course it would go up when I sold;)
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Apr 19, 2018 - 02:09pm PT
Anybody watching crude?

As a Raptor driver you can rest assured! But I am assuaged by the thought that I’m making more than I’m spending as crude goes up. I may be less happy in Norway in a couple months when I have to shell out 8+ Samolians/gallon to the Blonde Sheiks. At least I’ll be getting 30mpg there.

Interesting article here from Reuters on something I’ve been following for a year or two: (the links don’t work)

Next bubble to pop? Watch out for 'most crowded trade'
By Ritvik Carvalho | LONDON
It's long been a financial market truism that if everyone already owns a particular stock, bond or security, there's no one left to buy and the only way for the price to go is down.
That's easy to assert, less easy to measure.
But a long-running and widely followed monthly survey of global investors by Bank of America Merrill Lynch has recently gained a reputation for accurately spotting where the herd is nearing a cliff edge.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch's fund manager survey polls several asset managers every month on various investment trends. Among the questions participants answer is what they consider to be the 'most crowded trade' in world markets.
Since the end of last year, the "most-crowded" trades featured in the survey have all unravelled in a short space of time following the poll's publication.
(For a graphic on 'Evolution of BAML Global Fund Manager Survey "most crowded trade" click reut.rs/2JUjCC0)
Take December for instance. The most-crowded trade according to the survey, published on December 19, was to go long, or buy and hold Bitcoin, the world's biggest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
Bitcoin had soared to a record high of $19,666 by mid-December, before worries of a regulatory clampdown on cryptocurrency exchanges in January quickly deflated what many in the investment world were calling one of the biggest asset price bubbles in history.
(For a graphic on 'Bitcoin halves' click reut.rs/2JTFYTR)
The virtual currency now trades at less than half its peak value -- near the $8,000 mark.
In January, the most-crowded trade highlighted in the survey published on Jan. 16 was shorting, or selling volatility, which had sunk to historically low levels.
Soon after, higher than expected wage growth numbers in the United States prompted a big selloff in stocks and the VIX index, also known as Wall Street's "fear-gauge", posted its biggest one-day spike ever recorded. The VIX is a common proxy for expected stock market volatility.
The spike in the VIX caused major losses at exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or exchange-traded notes (ETNs), which bet on volatility remaining low. Some were forced to shut down.
(For a graphic on 'Short volatility products collapse as VIX spikes' click reut.rs/2ETYJ60)
UP NEXT: TECH?
For February, March and April, the most-crowded trade has been "Long FAANG + BAT", a reference to buying and holding the FAANG (Facebook, Amazon.com, Apple, Netflix, and Google's Alphabet) and BAT (Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent) groups of technology heavyweight stocks in the United States and China.
(For a graphic on 'Blunting FAANGs?' click reut.rs/2EUfuhj)
(For a graphic on 'BAT stocks: flying blind?' click reut.rs/2JTgTZA)
So when could that trade pop?
Manish Kabra, head of European equity and quant strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said it is not unusual for a particular asset class to spend months as a "crowded trade" on the survey.
"Sometimes it takes a bit of patience ... for what people say are crowded trades to become a contrarian trade. Historically we have seen, for instance, for almost six months people could say the same trades were crowded."
Kabra noted three instances in the past where there was a strong view to short emerging markets - those calls were followed by the start of a bull market in emerging markets in 2016.
There hasn't been a heavy shakeout in tech stocks yet but they have been rattled in recent weeks over a range of issues, especially increased regulatory scrutiny and the prospect of being caught up in a trade tussle between Washington and Beijing.
The survey shows funds have been overweight technology stocks for over a decade, raising questions about whether the sector is set to suffer the same fate as Bitcoin and short-vol products.
In the latest poll, 64 percent of investors said they would move to underweight on the sector if anti-trust, tax and privacy regulations ratcheted up.
So if soaring tech stocks are not next in line for a reversal, what could be? The most recent survey indicates the second most-crowded trade has been growing in conviction: shorting the U.S. dollar. Shorting the dollar has been the second most-crowded trade in the survey since February this year.
(For a graphic on 'BAML Global Fund Manager Survey April "most-crowded trade" results' click reut.rs/2ET3Aod)
(Reporting by Ritvik Carvalho; editing by Jane Merriman)

Looks like it’s time to long the dollar, or at least short the Euro.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
May 30, 2018 - 12:52pm PT
Bought some gold 2 weeks ago, and now I'm looking at silver.

Yesterday I boosted my position in Citigroup. Everybody was panicking over Italy's bonds so financials were dropping, but not a single bank holds even one full percent of its assets in Italian bonds, and they just renegotiated at a higher rate. The sheep get scared and I just get a little more mint jelly for my leg of lamb.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
May 30, 2018 - 12:57pm PT
At least ya didn’t join the sheep and get led to the slaughter by that faux shepherd Bill Gross...

Bill Gross' Janus unconstrained bond fund drops to last in peer group

The fund run by Bill Gross, which dropped more than 3 percent on Tuesday alone, plunged to last in its peer category so far this year, according to Lipper data on Wednesday.
Gross' $2.1 billion Janus Henderson Global Unconstrained Bond Fund is now down 6 percent this year, the research service's data showed.
Gross, once considered the "Bond King" of Wall Street, co-founded Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co in 1971 but left abruptly in 2014 and moved over to Janus.
monolith

climber
state of being
May 30, 2018 - 03:44pm PT
Dick's Sporting Goods sales soar after assault weapon sales halted.

http://money.cnn.com/2018/05/30/news/companies/dicks-sporting-goods-earnings/index.html
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
May 31, 2018 - 01:39pm PT
As for Dick's, just give the NRA a little time and wait for the other shoe to drop.

I doubt very much that their boost in sales is due to libtard gratitude. It is more likely due to the gen-x health craze and the onset of spring.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jun 25, 2018 - 02:09pm PT
This is what bonds are for.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Jun 26, 2018 - 03:47pm PT
I have some munies for the tax advantage, but avoid bonds (a way to slowly lose money).

Bought some more Citigroup today.
Norton

climber
The Wastelands
Jun 26, 2018 - 04:40pm PT
tremendous profits are being made on the short side of the equities markets

short interest, new short positions, is up sharply at the swing high

the pros are short, they know when and how to protect their profits, and right now they are staying short looking for lower prices

verification of the strong short professional interest can be, well you all know how to find it
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Jun 29, 2018 - 12:28pm PT
Bought some silver yesterday for under $16/oz
Flip Flop

climber
Earth Planet, Universe
Jun 29, 2018 - 12:46pm PT
Word on the street is that the bigger developers aren't taking any new projects. The influx of Real Esrate investment dollars is drying up, the economy isn't making real jobs. Only the leeches in the market are making money and the middle class is about to get a fresh hosing.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jun 29, 2018 - 12:57pm PT
bonds (a way to slowly lose money)

Not with low inflation. If I was 25 would I have bonds? No.
It’s all about portfolio preservation these days.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Jun 29, 2018 - 01:21pm PT
Short away flip-flop.

I'm still a bull.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jun 29, 2018 - 01:24pm PT
I'm still a bull.

In so many ways.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m still 50% bullish.
I’m just in my ‘querencia’. 😉
Flip Flop

climber
Earth Planet, Universe
Jun 29, 2018 - 01:28pm PT
Buying low isn't exactly Bull. More like vulture
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Jun 29, 2018 - 03:02pm PT
I'm getting a little more-skeered, when a conservative financial newspaper sounds both anti-Trump & skeered.

From Investor's Business Daily.

Recession fears are flaring as Trump's trade war has markets behaving in a way not seen since the financial crisis

If you want evidence of how President Donald Trump's trade war is affecting investor nerves, look no further than the widespread damage inflicted upon US stocks in recent days.

Beyond that, if you're looking for a hint as to what the future holds, an even more ominous signal is forming in the Treasury market.

The metric in question is the spread between two- and 10-year Treasury yields, which has fallen to its lowest level since 2007 — the period immediately preceding the most recent financial crisis.
More bad-news here: http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/recession-fears-are-flaring-as-trumps-trade-war-has-markets-behaving-in-a-way-not-seen-since-the-financial-crisis/ar-AAzbvju?li=BBnb7Kz



& the article ends with this:

It's all part of a massive puzzle investors and experts are trying to piece together. At this point, only one thing is for sure: The cries for a recession are getting louder, and risk-off behavior is getting more pronounced.

What happens next is anyone's guess.
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Jun 29, 2018 - 03:48pm PT
Sounds bad Fritz: better SELL SELL SELL!
ms55401

Trad climber
minneapolis, mn
Jun 29, 2018 - 03:56pm PT
three words: yield curve inversion.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Jun 29, 2018 - 04:03pm PT
blahblah! Per your hysteria:

quote]Sounds bad Fritz: better SELL SELL SELL![/quote]

Per most all my posts on this thread, I'm a cautious Buy & mostly hold, kind of fellow. Right now, I'm not buying.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Jul 9, 2018 - 03:21pm PT
Bought some silver when it dropped below $16.

My transport, drugs, financial, energy and construction plays keep the dividends pouring in.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 11, 2018 - 11:40pm PT
VERY interesting article on Reuters today about the Fed’s efforts to re-interpret, if you will, the old metrics on inflation and recession. New analysis indicated the most ballyhooed, the inverted yield curve, may not be as accurate as formerly believed. WOOT!

Goodbye inverted yield curve? Fed looks for alternative signals to guide policy

^^^^ That’s the title of the article which I read on the app. If any of you crankloons are interested in anything meaningful, I mean as opposed to Locker’s whereabouts, you can do yer own research.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jul 12, 2018 - 05:19am PT
Reminds me of all the "new economy" talk during the dotcom bubble. Parameters may change. But not the basic principles. Bull markets always end. And the signs are always there.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 12, 2018 - 07:26am PT
Edward, read the article before shooting yer mouth off. Signs can be read in varying ways.
One man’s sign to hell/ recession in the past doesn’t necessarily lead there now.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jul 12, 2018 - 08:32am PT
Edward, read the article before shooting yer mouth off.

Sorry about that. Didn't mean to ruffle your feathers.

I read the article. My opinion is the same.

Every time there's a recession, the experts give us a bunch of "who could've foreseen this?" or insightful after the fact analysis.

I have no idea when the markets are going to sell off in earnest, but when they do, I expect it'll be a doozy.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Jul 12, 2018 - 09:45am PT
When gold dropped to $1242 this morning I bought some buffalos. Its already back up.

I'm looking for weak financials. Vultures gotta eat too.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jul 12, 2018 - 12:32pm PT
Norton

climber
The Wastelands

Jun 26, 2018 - 04:40pm PT
tremendous profits are being made on the short side of the equities markets

short interest, new short positions, is up sharply at the swing high

the pros are short, they know when and how to protect their profits, and right now they are staying short looking for lower prices

verification of the strong short professional interest can be, well you all know how to find it

Good call, Norton.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 12, 2018 - 12:48pm PT
How are “tremendous profits” being made by the shorts in a market that’s still rising?
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jul 12, 2018 - 01:26pm PT
When gold dropped to $1242 this morning I bought some buffalos. Its already back up.

Toker - Do you use futures contracts for your precious metals investments?

Entry/exit is easy and fast.

Sixty percent of gains are taxed at long term rates.

The downside - Ease of entry and low margins can lead to unwise "investing".
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Jul 12, 2018 - 02:51pm PT
I like my commodities in hand.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jul 12, 2018 - 10:41pm PT
^^^^ Hmmm, that rings a bell. Oh, now I remember - the Hunt Brothers said that on Silver Thursday! That was a fun week for us silver traders! Kinda like a mass free soloing of the Bachar-Yerian. Interesting that silver is the same price today, not corrected for inflation, it was then, huh?
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Aug 3, 2018 - 11:45am PT
Who was it who poo pooed my Apple buy?
Mungeclimber

Trad climber
Nothing creative to say
Aug 3, 2018 - 04:46pm PT
Looks like Exxon is in the clear with the SEC. Watch that go up if demand for oil stays high.



Musk's rebound is nothing short of dizzying. All he had to do was apologize and the stock jumped. oh, no, its not a rigged game by market bullies leading the ups and downs and taking the skim off the top. Liquidity, eh?
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Aug 3, 2018 - 05:03pm PT
Musk is hardly outta da woods. One word: debt. Model 3 sales unlikely to generate enough cash flow to staunch the cash hemorrhage. Can’t issue new debt cause nobody will buy it. New stock issuance also not an option as it would dilute existing.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Aug 4, 2018 - 11:33am PT
I'm a fan of Musk. He is a visionary.

He still needs to learn some business protocol. No matter how boneheaded the question be polite. (Doesn't mean he can't throw in a witty jibe though.)

Trouble is; the human race may have already reached a tipping point from which we can't recover and electric cars won't save us.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Aug 13, 2018 - 01:40pm PT
Think I'm gonna sell 500 shares of Apple when it hits $210 (but then buy them back if it drops to $190).

Take the $25K+ and increase one of my health care plays.

(did the Musk thing kill this thread?)
Brian in SLC

Social climber
Salt Lake City, UT
Aug 13, 2018 - 02:46pm PT
Musk taking Tesla private at $420 would be interesting. Is that rumor propping up the stock price?

I don't understand much of this stuff...what's whacky to me, is, how can Turkey tank the dow? Well, not tank it, but, its been down a bit.

Spot price of gold under 1200...hmmm....
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Aug 13, 2018 - 04:05pm PT
Brian, greed is all that is propping up TSLA price.

Turkey is a more substantial worry. Look what puny Greece did - Turkey’s GDP is over 4 times bigger than Greece’s!
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Aug 13, 2018 - 06:59pm PT
Sigh.

I'm one of those who didn't think that Trump's tariffs on Turkish steel & aluminum imports, into the U.S., would affect our stock markets in a negative way.

I was wrong.

Of course, this is our President, standing strong for an arrested Turkish-American minister, who is accused of being involved in plots to over-throw Turkey's Islamic president.

Are you still following this?

Trump's Evangelical Christian base loves this kind of schist.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Aug 13, 2018 - 07:29pm PT
Fritzi, uncork a bottle and go sit on yer porch. Oh, and take deep breath, we’ve only seen one or two days of this. Besides, Turkey deserves this. They elected someone waay dumber than Trump.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Aug 13, 2018 - 07:47pm PT
Reilly! Per your post:

Besides, Turkey deserves this. They elected someone waay dumber than Trump.


I think Turkey's president is smart & capable, even if he is paranoid & waay too religious.

I sigh for our president, who has impressed me as a negative force, in our long-term stock market performance.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Aug 13, 2018 - 07:59pm PT
I think Turkey's president is smart & capable

With all due respect, I don’t think you’ve been reading what I have.
The Economist holds him in deep contempt for his efforts at creating a dictatorship and his abject and deeply stoopid economic policies. He thinks he can bluff his way out of this.
Brian in SLC

Social climber
Salt Lake City, UT
Aug 14, 2018 - 09:16am PT
Turkey is an interesting situation. Rising inflation and their currency against the dollar, the euro, and, significantly against the pound has fallen. British tourists are getting nearly twice the lira as a year ago? Wow. Of course...with inflation, that cold Efes might cost a bit more...

Crazy. As a tourist, I'm sure the folks we interfaced with were a somewhat biased group especially relating to us. Hard to get an impression. From most, they seemed to enjoy Turkey's situation but we felt like Erdogan was creating a bit of unease. Glad we went in 2014...


Anyhow...correction imminent? Inevitable? I'll survive...but...should one ease out of large cap stock based mutual funds? Or ride that tiger?

Whew...
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Aug 14, 2018 - 01:21pm PT
500 AAPL sold


cha ching
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Aug 14, 2018 - 02:39pm PT
500 AAPL sold


cha ching

Hmmm, I don't know about that one, Buffet's been buying big time, maybe you shoulda held on to that one.

Freaking Fritz and Turkey--what an asshat, everyone who knows anything knows Erdogan makes Trump look like he should be eligible for Nobel Prizes in Peace, Economics, and whatever else they have. Guy is a seriously bad dude and looks to put what could be a respectable country on the path to typical Middle East hell hole.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Aug 15, 2018 - 10:39am PT
Buffet thinks there are cheeseburgers in paradise.


Still holding the other 1500, but a little profit taking was in order.

Glad I bought my Turkish guns years ago. (They are pretty good actually.)
perswig

climber
Aug 15, 2018 - 04:04pm PT
From most, they seemed to enjoy Turkey's situation but we felt like Erdogan was creating a bit of unease. Glad we went in 2014...

Pre-purge.


I think Turkey's president is smart & capable
Fritz, what!?

I try not to let much grind my gears, but I'm with Reilly and blahblah, Erdogan's policies since 2016 are truly disturbing. Like totalitarianism 101.
And this current tariff talk notwithstanding, I think our current CIC harbors a sneaking envy for the consolidation of executive power and suppression of both public and judicial dissent.

Sigh.
Dale
Jon Beck

Trad climber
Oceanside
Aug 15, 2018 - 05:23pm PT
Sorry Fritz, gotta call you out on the Erdogan comment. The guy is evil.
zBrown

Ice climber
Aug 17, 2018 - 01:54pm PT

Mark Cuban owns just a handful of stocks and 'a whole lot of cash' because he's worried about the market


Billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban told CNBC on Monday that he's holding much more cash than he normally does because he's concerned about the stock market and U.S debt levels.

"I'm down to maybe four dividend-owning stocks, two shorts, and Amazon and Netflix. I've got a whole lot of cash on the sidelines," Cuban said on "Fast Money Halftime Report." "[I'm] ready, willing and able if something happens" to invest.

Cuban said Amazon and Netflix are his biggest holdings. But he refused to reveal his short positions, the stocks that he's betting against. "I'll keep that to myself."
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Aug 17, 2018 - 02:49pm PT
Sorry folks, about 1/2 my comment on Turkey's current ruler:

I think Turkey's president is smart & capable

Schist! I didn't say I liked him, or his policies.

The other half of my comment was:

even if he is paranoid & waay too religious

He may be the most evil man in Turkey, but he damn-well has proven himself "smart & capable."
zBrown

Ice climber
Aug 23, 2018 - 07:36am PT
If Trump is impeached, the stock market will crash!
-Donald Trump, Buffoon-in-Chief

Meanwhile Lowe's is closing all the Orchard Supply stores.

Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Aug 23, 2018 - 08:14am PT
he damn-well has proven himself "smart & capable”

Boy, howdy, yer just not gonna walk this back, are you? Yes, he’s smart when it comes to political machinations. So were Stalin and Hitler. As far as running a modern country that only a few years ago was a shoe-in for EU membership as one of our astute ST pundits has noted he makes Trump look a genius. He ignores or actively works against ALL sound economic advice. He is sure to drag Turkey into a withering recession that could make Greece’s look an Aegean holiday. Please don’t make me post some articles.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Aug 23, 2018 - 08:28am PT
Speaking of recessions, here's a Reuter's article on their latest poll of 100 top economists,on the subject.

U.S. economic growth will slow steadily in coming quarters after touching a four-year high in April-June, according to a Reuters poll of economists, who expect President Donald Trump’s trade war to inflict damage.
Boosted in part by $1.5 trillion of tax cuts passed late last year, the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.1 percent in the second quarter, its strongest performance in nearly four years.

But the latest poll of more than 100 economists taken Aug. 13-21 showed they expect the U.S. economy to lose momentum and to end next year growing at less than half that rate.

The U.S. economy was forecast to grow 3 percent in the current quarter and 2.7 percent in the next, a slight upgrade from the previous poll.

While the consensus suggests a slowdown in the world’s largest economy starting next year, only one of over 100 economists polled predicted an outright recession in 2020.

The poll gave a one-in-three chance of a U.S. recession in the next two years, a slight downgrade from a 35 percent probability of that happening in the previous poll.

But bond markets are telling a different story. The U.S. yield curve, as measured by the gap between two- and 10- year Treasury notes - is now just 23 basis points, the flattest since just before the last financial crisis.
That suggests a yield curve inversion - where the spread goes negative and which has accurately predicted five of the past six recessions - is coming soon.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-poll/u-s-economy-expected-to-slow-damaged-by-trade-war-reuters-poll-idUSKCN1L800K
Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Aug 23, 2018 - 08:34am PT
If Trump is impeached, the stock market will crash!
-Donald Trump, Buffoon-in-Chief

This is true. Pence will be a true nightmare.

Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Aug 23, 2018 - 08:39am PT
Recent papers indicate the old saw about the yield curve/recession link isn’t a given.
It’s a brave new world! WOOT! When a recession comes it will likely be initiated by something flying below the radar.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Aug 23, 2018 - 08:53am PT
While the consensus suggests a slowdown in the world’s largest economy starting next year, only one of over 100 economists polled predicted an outright recession in 2020.

The poll gave a one-in-three chance of a U.S. recession in the next two years, a slight downgrade from a 35 percent probability of that happening in the previous poll.

Sounds promising.
Brian in SLC

Social climber
Salt Lake City, UT
Aug 23, 2018 - 09:34am PT
When a recession comes it will likely be initiated by something flying below the radar.

So...stay the course!?!?

Ha ha.

Auto loan bailout?

Be nice to see that cliff...heavy sigh...
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Aug 23, 2018 - 10:37am PT
So...stay the course!?!?

An a propos question for the nautically bent. If yer a sub heavy weather is a non-issue. If yer a well-founded surface craft then staying the course is usually prudent, particularly if yer investment horizon is more than 10 years. Recessions have been trending to less frequent and less long so staying the course is indicated for most.
Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Aug 23, 2018 - 11:21am PT
Yes! One good thing about Republican administrations is that all the stocks go on sale! In 2008 I got some great deals.
10b4me

Social climber
Lida Junction
Aug 23, 2018 - 02:35pm PT

If Trump is impeached, the stock market will crash!
-Donald Trump, Buffoon-in-Chief

Sounds like he is trying to pass the buck.
WBraun

climber
Aug 23, 2018 - 02:39pm PT
Just why are you Americans sooo damn st00pid?

You have one of the best countries on the planet and managed to fuk it up in only 100 years and all you can do is blame it all on Trump.

You people are definitely insane ......
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Sep 19, 2018 - 06:22pm PT
who is still buying that shiet?

Anybody who is averse to risk. Ain’t nobody in Russia who can afford to. Whaddya gonna buy, Italian or German bonds? BwaHaHa!
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Sep 19, 2018 - 06:31pm PT
What continues to amaze me is how the markets continue to rally in spite of Trump's trade war. Every time Trump or China announces a new tariff, the markets sell off, briefly. And then the rally resumes. Impressive. No way The Donald foresaw this.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Sep 19, 2018 - 10:55pm PT
Heid & I get home tonight from a week of "bluebird weather" hiking in the Dolomites & 6 days in Tuscany.

Stay invested my friends & you too can enjoy "gud" times in retirement.


We hiked the mountain at right the next day.

Wine tasting in Tuscany.






Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Sep 19, 2018 - 11:01pm PT
Is that Lufthansa premium economy?

i'm gumby dammit

Sport climber
da ow
Sep 19, 2018 - 11:06pm PT
An a propos question for the nautically bent. If yer a sub heavy weather is a non-issue. If yer a well-founded surface craft then staying the course is usually prudent, particularly if yer investment horizon is more than 10 years. Recessions have been trending to less frequent and less long so staying the course is indicated for most.
Apparently you were not here for the last recession. It was a doozy, but nothing compared to what's coming. The more you drink the worse the hangover. Dropping a 1 trillion dollar tax cut to corporations on top of an economy already approaching full employment is like doing shots when you're already too drunk to remember doing them. This is gonna be a bad hangover. But that's okay, cause it's our children that get the hangover so who cares right?
F*#k the GOP and their president Trump.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Sep 19, 2018 - 11:14pm PT
Reilly! Close! But, Lufthansa business. The seats fold to level.
i'm gumby dammit

Sport climber
da ow
Sep 19, 2018 - 11:14pm PT
Just why are you Americans sooo damn st00pid?

You have one of the best countries on the planet and managed to fuk it up in only 100 years and all you can do is blame it all on Trump.

You people are definitely insane ......
Go back to where you came from maybe? I don't care what you've climbed with a boombox attached. You're sucking on the teat of this country while complaining about the taste of the milk. FVKK off!!
Oh, and you should maybe consider that you've kind of lost touch with reality at the same time.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Sep 19, 2018 - 11:23pm PT
Fritz, check out Qatar Qsuite business!
Rollover

climber
Gross Vegas
Sep 19, 2018 - 11:51pm PT
Zzzzzz.
Bet not one of you ever worked 2500-3000 hr/year.
Boring ass retirement thread...
Glad you made it.
90% of the rest of us won’t.
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Sep 19, 2018 - 11:56pm PT
"Stay invested my friends & you too can enjoy "gud" times in retirement."

Of course, for the mess the baby boomer generation is leaving behind, it will take future generations Twice as much work to generate Half the return.
https://qz.com/1258097/the-us-is-a-major-outlier-among-advanced-economies-in-one-big-scary-way/

and once you add in pension/retirement/medicare/VA debt obligations, the true situation is about twice as bad as that article indicates.

Inequality
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-income-inequality-is-holding-back-economic-growth-in-one-chart-2018-04-05

https://wir2018.wid.world/part-2.html
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2018/07/12/income-inequality-in-the-u-s-is-rising-most-rapidly-among-asians/

Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Sep 20, 2018 - 12:06am PT
Rollover, a pro pos handle. I’ve worked 7/12 for 3 months at a time.
Sorry you’re so bitter.
Rollover

climber
Gross Vegas
Sep 20, 2018 - 12:15am PT
7/12 for 3 months speculating stocks?
Counting money?
Turning money over?
Usury?

Sheesh.
Good for you..
Again glad you made it out.

Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Sep 20, 2018 - 02:00am PT
Rollover! I used to drive 50,000 miles a year as a sales rep in the northern Rockies, which works out to around 850 hrs a year, plus multi-week road trips. Combined equals 3000 - 3500 hours a year for many years & I still work enough to pay for my wine, plus I sell on Ebay. Did I pay my dues? I'm still paying.
tooth

Trad climber
B.C.
Sep 20, 2018 - 05:40am PT
Rollover, I did 60-80 hr weeks in construction for the longest time. Easy compared to dental school (study all night then classes all day) - which was easier than 55 clinical hrs a week in dentistry, plus treatment planning and running the business hours.

Effort does not equal profit.

Effort does not equal income.


Grades do not equal profit.


Income does not equal wealth.

Being mad at people because they don’t work as many of one metric as you do does equal ignorance. Good chance that they did do what you did and moved on. For reasons stated above.

It seems to me that right now is a great time to realize profits, get out of debts and get ready to buy when things go on sale. Same feeling I got with Gold in 2011, or by business in 2014 which I sold at a peak as well. If you want to buy low and sell high, well, the market has never been higher.


Rollover

climber
Gross Vegas
Sep 20, 2018 - 06:01am PT
Still stand by my statements though.
But nice try guys.
Can’t guilt or shame me into believing otherwise.
We all have our battles.
Some make it. Most won’t.
I can’t celebrate any of your good fortune nor can you celebrate
any of mine.


Any of you climb 100 days a year OUTSIDE and work
2500-3000 hrs a year? Crickets?


Pissing contest over.

Mark my words Boomers will be the last retirement generation.
Gen Xers not so much.

Enjoy YOUR retirement!

Spider Savage

Mountain climber
The shaggy fringe of Los Angeles
Sep 20, 2018 - 10:02am PT
Working your ass off is good but you also have to speculate and play the game.

For inspiration read The Bonanza King by our own Gregory Crouch. John McCay went from hard labor to the one of the richest in the world.


You can't win if you don't play. The smarter you are, the luckier you will be.

Add: and by play I mean the real estate and stock market, not the lotto. Lotto is a guaranteed looser.
John M

climber
Sep 20, 2018 - 10:26am PT
Just don't rub it in our faces gentlemen. I had many years where I worked over 3000 hours a year, but because of health issues I live in poverty. If not for my parents help, I would be homeless, and did live out of my car for 4 years. I'm glad that you are having a great time. Just don't be superior about it.

The world is messed up. the gap between the haves and the have not has risen to levels rarely seen before, and each time it has risen to those kinds of levels, we end up in a "let them eat cake" scenario. I would prefer to avoid that.

Enjoy it.. Celebrate your good fortune, but don't be smug about it.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Sep 20, 2018 - 10:30am PT
[Click to View YouTube Video]
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Sep 20, 2018 - 12:06pm PT

Rollover, go ahead and stand by your beliefs. Too bad you don’t know jack about economics or finance. More pitiful is your making completely off the wall assumptions about people you know nothing about. I grew up in a dirt poor Irish family in Chicago. We were so poor we had to live in a Polak neighborhood. I have a friend who grew up on a subsistence farm in central Illinois. He just retired as the VP of a $50 million company. Another friend grew up dirt poor in Peoria, Illinois. He’s a world renowned bio-chemist who designs drugs so people don’t go blind. Got a friend whose grandad was a sharecropper in Bama. He’s a surgeon. Got a friend from Sierra Leone who lived on cassava and peanuts as a kid. She’s now the med-surg nursing supervisor at a major hospital. Got an Indian friend who grew up in a house with dirt floors. I think that qualifies as dirt poor. He never spoke on a telephone until he was 16. He is now an MD AND a PhD doing eye research. Got a bunch of friends from Russia and Ukraine who not only were poor but Jewish so they had many doors of opportunity slammed in their faces over there. The common theme is they got an education, plus they don’t go around feeling superior about their jaundiced view of reality.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Sep 20, 2018 - 01:16pm PT
You are talking about half my family, Reilly.

Sorry to hear John M is having a hard time. Anything we can do?

New high for me today, but education is the key. I'm gonna invest in my niece and nephew.





edit; oh yeah, stock tip

If it drops back to $28.50 I like Alliancebernstein (AB)
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Sep 20, 2018 - 03:51pm PT
Of course it's not appropriate to brag on ST, except for climbing stories, adventures, large trout, remodels, lifestyle, pets, girlfriends & wives, your teams, your political candidates, & your Christian beliefs.

John M. My apologies for bragging about my Italian adventure.

Here's a Christian-summit shot to molify you.

John M

climber
Sep 20, 2018 - 03:55pm PT
how does a smart person end up broke when they are 40

plenty of ways.

Health problems
War
Recessions
Grow up in a communist regime.

I'm sure that there are more.

I know some very bright people who lost their shirts in the last recession. Way over bought when the housing market was at its peak. I tried to warn them, they didn't listen and went upside down really fast on a lot of loans. It happens. People can be very smart in some areas, and not so smart when it comes to investing. Being arrogant about it is a fools game. They will come out of it and do well because they can learn and are smart and have their health.
StahlBro

Trad climber
San Diego, CA
Sep 20, 2018 - 04:04pm PT
One must always be on guard for irrational exuberance. It runs in cycles, and is kind of like the “boiling a frog” metaphor. Eventually the frog dies.
johntp

Trad climber
Little Rock and Loving It
Sep 20, 2018 - 04:36pm PT
Rollover: I don't see anyone posting lording their circumstances over you. Just relating their path to how they got there.

Many here have worked hard and long hours. Me, worked roughnecking in the Gulf of Mexico for two years at 19 (1979) for $17.00/hour. Twelve hour/day for 14 days, then 14 days off to climb and backpack. Went back to college in Cali and earned a degree with a lousy GPA.

While in Cali spent a lot of time climbing with career professionals. After graduating got an offer to be a mechanical engineer (my degree was in Marketing) from a friend and took it. Climbed and backpacked every weekend working 40 hour weeks.

Fast forward about nine years. Got an engineering job with a world leader in the engineering and construction business for power plants and refineries. Spent five years in the field working construction, commissioning and contracts management. Worked 12-16 hours seven days a week for months on end without a day off. After seven years at the firm my position was upgraded to Senior Mechanical Engineer.

Work smart and network. As said above, hard work doesn't give you anything unless you do it smart and keep a positive outlook even when things get rough.

If you wrap yourself in negativity it has only one outcome.
John M

climber
Sep 20, 2018 - 04:44pm PT
work visas are government assistance

not if you show up with a butt load of talent and skills like Moose did. By your definition, anyone who immigrated to America got government assistance, even though America is looking for talent.

Anyone know who power crux is? I don't like talking to anonymous people. Especially those who act like trolls.
johntp

Trad climber
Little Rock and Loving It
Sep 20, 2018 - 04:50pm PT
Anyone know who power crux is? I don't like talking to anonymous people. Especially those who act like trolls.

Agree with that. Haven't seen the moniker before.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Sep 20, 2018 - 06:17pm PT
Hey, Moosie, you didn’t pick up on my comment on living in the Polak neighborhood! It had its advantages - good to live amongst good HARD WORKING people, plus they make great sausages! My brother likes ‘em so much he married two of ‘em! (not at the same time) 😄
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Sep 20, 2018 - 06:40pm PT
👍
Larry Nelson

Social climber
Sep 20, 2018 - 07:56pm PT
Economists have predicted 11 of the last 3 recessions, and the stock market is a casino...but ya can still get ahead and have a retirement.
Good advice by Fritz and Reilly

Wife and I invested in real estate for 10 years...driving beaters, cheap vacations, no going out...every penny toward the next down payment...ended up with five houses in San Diego.
I worked 7/12's for 2 to 8 weeks at a time for over 10 years...maxed out my 401K's where ever I worked...ended up with one IRA annuity and one IRA in various markets.

I have 2 old friends who lived lives of instant gratification...living in their trucks now, each with a son rotating in and out of jail...breaks my heart but what can you do?

edit: Moose, Reilly...my brother's wife is Polack, wonderful lady.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Sep 20, 2018 - 08:31pm PT
Wife and I invested in real estate for 10 years...driving beaters, cheap vacations, no going out...every penny toward the next down payment...ended up with five houses in San Diego.
I worked 7/12's for 2 to 8 weeks at a time for over 10 years...maxed out my 401K's where ever I worked...ended up with one IRA annuity and one IRA in various markets.

I have 2 old friends who lived lives of instant gratification...living in their trucks now, each with a son rotating in and out of jail...breaks my heart but what can you do?

Post of the month!! (Although we've never been bullish on real estate, it works for many.)

Work hard. (But don't get stepped on.) Get an education. (But don't let it confine you.) Invest in the future of companies you believe in. (Or let someone smart do it for you.) And, as Larry just said, skip the expensive vacations, restaurants, the new car until you're older--and, of course, abstain from nasty and expensive drug habits.
John M

climber
Sep 20, 2018 - 09:03pm PT
Work hard. (But don't get stepped on.) Get an education. (But don't let it confine you.) Invest in the future of companies you believe in. (Or let someone smart do it for you.) And, as Larry just said, skip the expensive vacations, restaurants, the new car until you're older--and, of course, abstain from nasty and expensive drug habits.

That doesn't always work. Its good advice, but plenty of things can happen that can derail that.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
Sep 20, 2018 - 09:24pm PT
Marrying 2 sausages is low hanging fruit but congratulations either way...
Lituya

Mountain climber
Sep 20, 2018 - 09:47pm PT
That doesn't always work. Its good advice, but plenty of things can happen that can derail that.

As an NHL survivor myself, I understand what you're saying. Still, the formula works most of the time. And just giving up--as Rollover seems to be doing--is certainly not going to work. Waiting for the revolution is probably a bad plan too.
John M

climber
Sep 20, 2018 - 10:18pm PT
congratulations on beating cancer. Hockey can do that to you.

Yes, giving up is a bad idea. The problem is that our generation seems to be leaving the next generations some real messes. we keep sending the mess down the line and its getting pretty big.

On that note..

I would like to hear rollover's story. Not everyone recovered well from the last recession.
Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Sep 21, 2018 - 06:26am PT
We always called it Czech-cago.
Bad Climber

Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
Sep 21, 2018 - 08:22am PT
Yep. Gotta be smart AND stick with it. Here's a cautionary true story.

I know a guy who's usually the smartest dude in the room. He dropped out of high school and got a GED because he found high school intolerable. He is of the generation that came of age with the dawn of the computer revolution and started working on small computers early on. Hardware first then programming. He went on to become quite the expert, flying all over the nation and world, working for high-end clients. Boat loads of cash coming in. He bought a great house in an expensive west coast city. All is rosy and light and he lived happily ever after? Hardly. Here's the turn.

He found the work more and more soul deadening. He'd always loved music, so in his mid/late 40's he decides to go for his dream! Go big or go home, right? He takes out a second mortgage on his home and works hard at trying to develop a commercial music career, which, not surprisingly, goes nowhere. Even with immense talent, such a career is like a moonshot.

All along, he was NOT investing, not thinking long term financial stability, just going from one high paying job to the next. Money was easy. It will always come, right? Er.... He finally realized the music gig is going nowhere, so he starts to look for tech jobs again, but now he's been out of the loop for years, is in his fifties, and has no fire for the labor on top of that. He gets a few jobs, including one start up that he puts huge labor into that goes nowhere. The founders never pay him wages. They were all betting on the outcome, which didn't come. The noose gets tighter and tighter. Eventually, he has to sell his big house because he can't make the payments. It has increased radically in value, so he makes a killing. Pays off his debts. And immediately moves into large, expensive rental houses BY HIMSELF, laying down big checks every month as if he's still bringing in a six figure income. This goes on for years. But the laws of physics and finance don't change because you choose to ignore them. Dood is now homeless.

Don't let this happen to you, kids. Save, invest. If you have the good fortune to get on the gravy train, plan with the knowledge that you could get kicked off at any time. Had this guy invested, used his resources even somewhat reasonably, he'd be totally fine now instead of scrounging on social security and medicaid.

As soon as I got a real income, I started investing. Nothing fancy--just well diversified mutual funds. It has made a HUGE difference. I have a very modest retirement now, but my time is my own, and my wife and I are leaving for City of Rocks on Monday. Not bad, IMHO. What we need is some serious financial education in our schools, but I got ZERO. I was lucky to have reasonably frugal, smart parents, and when I was younger, I drove around listening to a financial guy on the radio. I believe the show was "Money Talk" with Bob Brinker? I guess I was a nerdy twenty year old. Also, I had a friend back in junior college who got into investing very seriously as a hobby then career. He probably owns a private island at this point. All these influences helped move me in a financially responsible direction. Maybe some young guns will read this thread and start taking control of their own financial future. We can hope.

BAd
Spider Savage

Mountain climber
The shaggy fringe of Los Angeles
Sep 21, 2018 - 08:37am PT
serious financial education in schools

Bingo.

Had to figure it out for self. Book Rich Dad Poor Dad lays it out well and concisely.

Bragging about circumstance - At age 20 I hitchhiked into LA from North Idaho with $17 a guitar and backpack. Didn't know anyone. High school drop-out. Camped in Gritth Park. About 35 years later achieved net worth making me a "qualified investor."

While my lack of formal education made circumstances more challenging my ability to figure things out put me on the ladder to success.

The wealthy rarely wait for permission or acceptance. They go after it.


One more key bit of advice I give to people longing for higher income: To get a lot of money you need to handle a lot of money. Manage big projects, get into industries where money flows, and make yourself useful through knowledge and productiveness.

Peons in the big Wall Street firms get paid about ten times the average. Though much of that is spent on rent.
Larry Nelson

Social climber
Sep 21, 2018 - 09:52am PT
"The most powerful force in the universe is compound interest".
Albert Einstein

Good advice bad climber.
I didn't have a pot to pee in when I was 40 (the whoring years), but the wife and I hatched our plans and stuck with them. For a life plan to work out, you definitely need luck, and I admit I have always been lucky.

But if you consider yourself always unlucky, you'll never find happiness.
Visualize where you want to be in 10 years, 20 years, and plan it.
Visualize yourself on your deathbed as a 90 year old...what do you reflect on, what would you have done different?
John M

climber
Sep 21, 2018 - 01:34pm PT
many schools of economics still teach trickle down economics and thus It becomes engrained in people. So be careful what you wish for.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Sep 21, 2018 - 11:31pm PT
I have commitment issues and,.... do they even make kosher sausages?


(fri night drunk post)
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Sep 21, 2018 - 11:43pm PT
If yer drunk enough I’m sure you could be excused,
or just claim you thought it was sheep sausage.
And given what you’ve probably made the last week, who cares?

A friend has been playing with Canuckian pot company stocks.
He made 100% on one in a day or two! He didn’t bet the farm
so it was just harmless fun.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Sep 22, 2018 - 01:39am PT
Actually found another way to play the green wave (hint; it's a cash only biz).

After all, they don't want all their assets to go up in smoke.


That could be a chronic problem.



It is high time to address this.




Could I be more blunt.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Sep 22, 2018 - 09:39am PT
What wuz the question?
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Sep 25, 2018 - 12:16pm PT
How to profit on the end of prohibition 2.0
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Sep 25, 2018 - 02:24pm PT
I can see that giant hog farm southwest of you putting
its effluent to good use producing Momo Loco with a catchy byline:

“We got what you need in case you didn’t have sh!t for brains before”
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Sep 26, 2018 - 12:45pm PT
Fed bump day
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Sep 26, 2018 - 01:05pm PT
Bump and dump.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Sep 26, 2018 - 01:16pm PT
BFD, we’re dead nuts on the 90 day moving average.
briham89

Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
Sep 26, 2018 - 01:27pm PT
Question....with interest rates continuing to go up I am thinking about taking all or most of my uninvested cash out of my bank savings account and parking it in a Vanguard federal money market fund. It has been paying around a 2.5% dividend lately and will rise with the next Fed bump. I can't really find a reason not to do this...other than Vanguard going belly up, but I don't see that happening. For context I am 28 years old and IMO "things" are volatile as we are 10 years into a bull market with the Fed raising interests rates and the IMF rolling back quantitative easing I don't want to be fully, or even majorly at this point, invested in stocks. Just looking for a bit more return than a savings account, while I sit on cash and wait for the world to lose its sh#t again....
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Sep 26, 2018 - 01:33pm PT
Commendable logic, you sure you’re really a Murrican? Vanguard going belly up - funny!
There are some short term bond funds worth looking at too but a guaranteed 2.5% for the
next 18 months is not chopped liver, even if it’s out ahead of the inflation rate by only a nose.
FYI I don’t see either of Vanguard’s taxable money market funds paying 2.5%. The tax exempt
ones pay a lot less.
briham89

Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
Sep 26, 2018 - 02:40pm PT
FYI I don’t see either of Vanguard’s taxable money market funds paying 2.5%

I just double checked, you're right I misspoke(typed?), it's been around 1.9%. I was thinking more after a couple more FED bumps
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Sep 26, 2018 - 03:02pm PT
^^^ Irrational exuberance? 😉

edit:
Wading into Benoit Mandelbrot’s The Mis-Behavior of Markets-A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence. Heavy going but amazing.
briham89

Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
Sep 26, 2018 - 05:03pm PT
The reason I was thinking the money market account as opposed to bonds is that the price of bonds keeps going down as interest rates increase (inverse relationship) and bond prices are vulnerable during recessions, so to my original question, money market account over savings account a good idea? I feel like it's kind of a no brainer, but no brainers tend to bite me in the ass so figured it was worth asking.
zBrown

Ice climber
Sep 26, 2018 - 06:07pm PT


The housing bubble, the credit crunch, and the Great Recession: A reply to Paul Krugman

However, as I argue in a new paper and blog post, the most damaging aspect of the unwinding bubble was that it ultimately touched off a broad-based financial panic, including runs on wholesale funding and indiscriminate fire sales of even non-mortgage credit. The panic in turn choked off credit supply, pushing the economy into a much more severe decline than otherwise would have occurred. My evidence for this claim is that indicators of panic, including the sharp increases in funding costs for financial institutions and the spiking yields on securitized non-mortgage assets, are strikingly better predictors of the timing and depth of the recession than are housing-related variables such as house prices, market pricing of subprime mortgages, or mortgage delinquency rates.




https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2018/09/21/the-housing-bubble-the-credit-crunch-and-the-great-recession-reply-to-paul-krugman/


https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/12/opinion/botching-the-great-recession.html


https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/14/opinion/t
perswig

climber
Sep 26, 2018 - 06:17pm PT
^^
RHCP sighting.

Dale
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Sep 26, 2018 - 06:52pm PT
Similar to a money market rate,
how about any of those high rate 6 month to 1 year CDs?
Many are from banks you never heard of, but still claim FDIC insurance.

https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/banking/nerdwallets-best-cd-rates/
https://www.depositaccounts.com/cd/
https://www.depositaccounts.com/cd/6-month-cd-rates.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/rates/deposit/6-month-cd
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Sep 26, 2018 - 06:53pm PT
Those Brand X CD’s almost invariably have onerous rules. Jess sayin’...
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Oct 1, 2018 - 02:42pm PT
Don't want to be irrationally exuberant, but I haven't seen a day where my top ten are all in the green for quite some time. My railroads are at all time highs.

Clouds on the horizon though.
briham89

Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
Oct 1, 2018 - 04:36pm PT
Similar to a money market rate,
how about any of those high rate 6 month to 1 year CDs?
Many are from banks you never heard of, but still claim FDIC insurance.

The nice thing about the money market account is I can take cash out at anytime (after a bank transfer). It's basically a "high" yield savings account...without FDIC, but again with Vanguard, I'm not too worried about that. I think I'm going to move forward with this plan.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 1, 2018 - 05:33pm PT
I'm sorry to share that current U.S. inflation rates are running around 2.7%.


I clicked on a couple of the CD rate charts & that impressive one year rate of 2.5% is losing you money, in the long run.

Of course, longer term CD's are paying higher rates, but with the current booming economy & Trump's tariff wars, inflation & interest rates are going to keep increasing.
briham89

Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
Oct 1, 2018 - 10:18pm PT
Yes that will be "losing" money compared to inflation. But it's a hedge against a looming down turn (I don't short stocks so cash is a hedge for me). I will re-enter after that happens. I'm happy to hear other ideas :)
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Oct 1, 2018 - 10:27pm PT
So if bonds are no good now and a ‘major correction’ is coming then wouldn’t a savvy contrarian get into bonds now?

BTW, my Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund made 2.22% in the last year,
a bad year for bonds.
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Oct 2, 2018 - 07:41am PT
Yes that will be "losing" money compared to inflation. But it's a hedge against a looming down turn (I don't short stocks so cash is a hedge for me). I will re-enter after that happens. I'm happy to hear other ideas :)

Do what you want and I'm not a money manager, but I'll give you the standard conservative advice.
Forget your market timing plans and just put whatever you have to invest for retirement in a target date fund (Vanguard is fine). Max out 401k of course. Yes you'll have swings and there will undoubtedly be bear markets, as there always have been.
But market timing is like casino gambling: sure there's a chance you'll win, but odds are you'll lose (compared to buy and hold).
Listen to the pros like Buffet and Bogle (not me and not your buddy who brags about some trade).
For almost all of us, investing should be very simple: things like target date retirement funds, index funds (mostly US equities, perhaps some international), asset allocation depending on your risk appetite and timing of anticipated withdrawals.

Real estate is another option, if you're into it.

There are no "tricks" for average joe; the only trick is for money manager types to get more of your money without adding real value.

(As a detail, if you're sitting on a bunch of cash, I'm not saying put it all in the market today. You'd likely dollar cost average into the asset allocation you'd like.)
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Oct 2, 2018 - 08:57am PT
All valid points which is why I am staying the course. Yes, it’s gonna hurt to lose money when the correction comes but by pulling out now I would miss out on making money that is, in effect, a cushion for the correction. As I have pointed out before recessions are becoming less frequent and their tenure is decreasing to an average of 14 months IIRC. If you stay invested 18 months is also about the length of time it will take to see your portfolio back to its pre-dip level. If you try to time things that time period WILL expand considerably. OK, back to my Mandelbrot.
briham89

Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
Oct 2, 2018 - 09:53am PT
I'm not a market timer in the sense of selling high. I only contribute to my target retirement fund and a couple other index funds and individual stocks. However, I feel that contributing right now may be mistimed and it's worth waiting for a dip....ya I know that is market timing, but I'm trying to get one side of it, the down. It would seem that there are many factors pointing towards this looming....but I could be totally wrong sitting on the sideline.

So I haven't sold anything in this high time, I'm just hesitant to add right now, and instead stick the cash I would invest in a money market fund and then add to more volatile index funds / stocks as dips occur. Or do you think even this type of market timing is not worth it in the long wrong and when I'm 60+ I'll be laughing that I was trying to time dips now?
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Oct 2, 2018 - 10:49am PT

So I haven't sold anything in this high time, I'm just hesitant to add right now, and instead stick the cash I would invest in a money market fund and then add to more volatile index funds / stocks as dips occur. Or do you think even this type of market timing is not worth it in the long wrong and when I'm 60+ I'll be laughing that I was trying to time dips now?

I'm not an expert but I've been fortunate enough (or cursed enough) to have an office job that's given me resources to invest for a long time, so I've certainly thought about this.

I do actually think that "buy the dips" can be a way to juice your returns a bit. That's different from waiting for a market crash; waiting for the crash is a riskier IMO as you may sit on the sidelines for a crash that never comes, or at least doesn't come in a way that is particularly helpful to you. I suppose I've got no problem with "buy the dips," even though I'm being a bit hypocritical as I've just said don't market time!

If I were you I'd think about dollar cost averaging, starting now, as painful as that may be if/when the market declines, understanding full well that you're in a bit of a gamble no matter what you do. A natural question would be the time frame to DCA--I'm not sure I know enough to say anything really helpful on that point; a lot of people would pick monthly purchases over one year I suppose, but that's very arbitrary.
zBrown

Ice climber
Oct 2, 2018 - 11:46am PT


Try as he might, the billionaire president isn't profiting off his time in the White House, according to a new report.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/02/trump-forbes-400-spot-tumbles-as-net-worth-declines.html

https://www.thedailybeast.com/speed-read-the-5-richest-bits-in-forbes-look-at-trump-the-net-loser
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Oct 2, 2018 - 12:20pm PT
briham, if I were you I would certainly wait. When it happens it will be obvious. Of course,
the bottom won’t be but I think I would try to discipline myself to buy at the -20% level. If it
goes down another 5-10% NBD.
Brian in SLC

Social climber
Salt Lake City, UT
Oct 2, 2018 - 12:32pm PT
Whew...record highs in the DOW.

Looking back at historical low spots (say, last 40 years) and their recovery time periods...I dunno. Could be a cliff on the way? Could be two years, 4 years out?

I could ride my large cap pony for a dip. I'd hate to have to survive a large correction.

Oh, for that crystal ball...

Any indicators that folks recommend paying attention to? Market seems fairly robust right now, and, I'm worried about tariffs, nationalism, debt...and its been bumpy, but, continues to rise...for now.

Ugh.
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Oct 2, 2018 - 12:58pm PT
briham, if I were you I would certainly wait. When it happens it will be obvious. Of course,
the bottom won’t be but I think I would try to discipline myself to buy at the -20% level. If it
goes down another 5-10% NBD.

I won't at all say the above is bad advice or even that I disagree with it. But the devil can be in the details. Is the plan to buy when there is a 20% dip in the markets, valued as of today? (Obviously today is arbitrary, but have to have some date.) What if that 20% dip never happens? Or to buy when there is a 20% dip from any record high (in other words, pretending the Dow is the market, let's say the Dow goes to 30k, then the plan is to buy if the Dow goes to 24k?). Seems almost certain there will be a 20% dip sometime, but it's not so certain there will be a 20% dip before there's a 20% gain, and so it could be a wash at best to wait for that dip. In my example, you'd be better off waiting for the Dow to get to 30k and then buying compared to buying today. But what if the Dow gets to 35k before the dip? Be pretty close to a wash. What if Dow goes higher?

In either case, the poster could be out of the market for a lot of time and miss a lot of gains, as who knows when that 20% will come. And you could at least theoretically buy in at a 20% dip which turn that turn into an even bigger dip with a very long recovery, so you could "lose" that way too.

My main point is there is no super easy / obvious answer, and you're taking some risks no matter what you do, including sitting on cash.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Oct 2, 2018 - 03:29pm PT
When the 25% tariffs kick in in January look for housing (and many other) stocks to take a hit.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Oct 2, 2018 - 04:05pm PT
Is the plan to buy when there is a 20% dip in the markets, valued as of today?

Or yesterday, or tomorrow, or from the all time high, whenever that may occur. He has to have a plan and the discipline to stick to it. He’s out and he’s planning to get in so he HAS to plan for that, even if it is an imperfect plan. A more conservative advisor might say wait for a 15% dip. A wild and crazy guy might say 30%. What if 30% never happens? That’s why I threw out 15-20%. He couldn’t go too wrong with those numbers, unless it doesn’t dip that much, which is virtually inevitable, right? If he gets in on a 15% dip and it goes down another 10 then it’s NBD given what I think is his timeline. If it doesn’t dip for two more years then he could be out some significant gains. That’s why a truly conservative guy would say get in now if your timeline is 20+ years. That wild horse ain’t gonna get broke ifn ya don’t git on him!
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Oct 2, 2018 - 05:03pm PT
Quite right about the difficulty of timing markets. I missed several periods of large rises before learning any lesson.

Partly this was due to bad luck investments just before recessions, which tends to make you overly cautious afterwards.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 2, 2018 - 08:04pm PT
Thank you all & especially BlahBlah, (who I disagree with on politics) for the good advice on staying invested & not trying to time the market.

I absolutely agree. However, in Oct. 2007, it was obvious that schist was happening in the U.S. housing market & would likely affect the stock market. Our 2001 investment in Vanguard's Energy Fund had done amazingly well & our position in it was suddenly about 15% of our portfolio.


I sold all of it, at what I recall was close to its all-time high, which came 7 months later in May 2008. The only other stock we sold during the drops of the great recession of 2008, was a small position in Wells Fargo, which was simply panic on our part.

I have read repeated advice, that it is very easy to sell stocks, but much harder for folks to accept the risk of re-entering the stock market.

Happily, after the big sell-off of the "great recession" we bought more "Blue Chip" stocks in early 2009, because they were so compellingly cheap compared to their valuations before the bust. I also bought back about half the shares I had sold of Vanguard Energy, but have since transferred that investment into Vanguard Bond Funds.

It was totally accidental market timing.

Stay invested my friends!

S & P 500 index since 1996.

S&P 500 gains & losses by year since since 2007




ms55401

Trad climber
minneapolis, mn
Oct 8, 2018 - 04:06pm PT
question for Vanguard investors:

if I submit a buy order before the market close, is the NAV calculated at market close of that day, or at the next day?

Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Oct 8, 2018 - 04:41pm PT
At the close
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Oct 9, 2018 - 07:49am PT
Minor point to ms:
You may want to consider an ETF rather than a mutual fund.
They're very similar, but one difference (and advantage) of ETFs is that the price changes throughout the trading day, not just at close like a mutual fund.
If you're buy and hold (or even just a long term investor), this distinction may not matter much, but seems to me to be a clear advantage for the ETF.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 9, 2018 - 11:38am PT
I've been aware for ages that as bond yields rise, stocks are not as attractive to investors.

Damn if Bank of America hasn't quantified that rule of thumb. Of course their new rule will be tested.

Bonds will become more attractive than stocks only when the 10-year Treasury note yield reaches 5 percent, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch equity strategists.

With interest rates rising, Wall Street has been handicapping how high yields can go before the stock market begins really suffer, and some analysts say the market could start to get nervous as soon as the 10-year touches 3.5 percent. The 10-year reached 3.26 percent early Tuesday before retreating.

But the B of A strategists say it's 5 percent, where the return on equity investments is challenged by the ability to earn yield in the bond market.
"Asset allocation is a dynamic process, and we would hate to oversimplify. But we tested a few frameworks to determine the 10-yr yield breakpoint at which bonds look more attractive than stocks, and they all spit out the same number: 5%," the B of A strategists wrote.

The analysts said they ran tests to see where Wall Street allocations to stocks peaked.

Five percent "is the level of the 10-yr at which our market derived equity risk premium framework indicates that stocks trade at fair value to bonds, all else equal," they wrote. "5% is the expected return of the S&P 500 over the next decade, based on our valuation framework… And 5% on the 10-yr is the level at which the reward to risk ratio for stocks vs. bonds skews more favorably toward bonds."

"If the 10yr Treasury, the so-called "risk-free" rate, climbs to the level of expected equity returns, the decision between stocks and bonds would be clear cut," the strategists noted.

Sell bonds on rising rates

Stocks have been selling off in recent sessions, as the 10-year yield broke out to new 7-year highs after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed is no where near neutral with its rate hiking. Neutral is a level that where interest rates neither stimulate or stasll the economy.
Despite the run up in rates, B of A analysts say it is not time to sell equities.

"We think stocks, especially large caps, are attractive amid rising rates based on historical analysis and the output of our other models. Rising rates are a more definitive reason to sell bonds, in our view," they noted
.


http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/bank-of-america-dont-worry-about-stocks-until-10-year-yield-hits-5-percent/ar-BBOa13Y?pfr=1
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Oct 9, 2018 - 01:00pm PT
Despite the run up in rates, B of A analysts say it is not time to sell equities.

“It ain’t time to sell equities, until it is.” - Yogi Berra

Vanguard envisions 5.5% returns on equities ‘for a while’. I’ll take that.

Emerging market funds are real cheap now, but they could get cheaper.

Italian bond yields hit 3.63 the other day - not nearly high enough to merit that risk level.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Oct 10, 2018 - 01:17pm PT
What a day!
SteveW

Trad climber
The state of confusion
Oct 10, 2018 - 01:18pm PT
Market's only down 830 or so. A minor adjustment. . .
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Oct 10, 2018 - 01:27pm PT
The guy that goes broke in a big way never misses any meals.
It's the poor guy shy half a slug that has to tighten his belt.

My biggest one day loss, but its only numbers on paper if I don't sell.
briham89

Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
Oct 10, 2018 - 02:08pm PT
My money market fund decision felt pretty good today haha

Buying opportunities on the horizon...
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 10, 2018 - 05:38pm PT
I have no insider information on whether the current slight-drop in the stock markets will continue.

However! Headlines touting today’s 831 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Index as the 3rd largest point drop ever, are alarmist nonsense.

Due to the increase in values of the various stock market indexes, spewing about point drops as the “3rd largest-ever”, or as happened in Feb 2018 as the “largest ever,” don’t mean schist.

It’s the percent drop, not how many points.

Here’s historical data on the 5 biggest gain & worst losses days in the S&P 500, going back to 1950.

Five Largest One Day Percentage Gains:

1. 2008-10-13 +11.58%
2. 2008-10-28 +10.79%
3. 1987-10-21 +9.10%
4. 2009-03-23 +7.08%
5. 2008-11-13 +6.92%

Five Largest One Day Percentage Losses:

1. 1987-10-19 -20.47%
2. 2008-10-15 -9.03%
3. 2008-12-01 -8.93%
4. 2008-09-29 -8.81%
5. 1987-10-26 -8.28%

The S&P 500 lost 3.2% today.

Calm yourselves.
zBrown

Ice climber
Oct 10, 2018 - 05:41pm PT
Playin' the percentages, eh?



The bottom 60 percent of households combined own just 1.8 percent of American stock. The top 1 percent, by contrast, owns over 40 percent of the country's stock, up from 34 percent in 2001.Dec 18, 2017

Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 10, 2018 - 06:21pm PT
zbrown! You make a valid point, per your post.

The bottom 60 percent of households combined own just 1.8 percent of American stock. The top 1 percent, by contrast, owns over 40 percent of the country's stock, up from 34 percent in 2001.Dec 18, 2017

I feel bad for all those folks, who through bad luck, illness, or adversity, have not saved enough to gamble (or is that gambol?) in the game of chance, we call the stock market.

However, I'm trying to share conservative market wisdom with those here who might have enough investments, to profit from it.
zBrown

Ice climber
Oct 10, 2018 - 07:40pm PT
Well, Fritzee, I always make valid points, though many folks don't get them.

I looked up my net worth percentile in the charts. I'm doing fine without very much stock market investing. How?

The old fashioned way. I worked hard and invested in real estate.

My former employer did it the same way and he was on the Forbes list.

Funny guy. Like many folks he couldn't keep his dick where it belonged and ended up divorced and off the list when his wife took her share.







Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 10, 2018 - 08:05pm PT
zbrown! Per your mention:

I looked up my net worth percentile in the charts. I'm doing fine without very much stock market investing. How?

The old fashioned way. I worked hard and invested in real estate.

Gud work old lad. I commend you!

Two of my four original climbing pals are still driving buses in their late 60's. One was a junior partner in a profitable small Idaho company in the early 1980's. His mentor & senior partner sold 51% of the company to some folks who seemed legit. A few years later, through stock manipulation & pure evil, on the part of the new partners, my friend had a zero investment left, in what he thought was his sure-fire path to riches.
zBrown

Ice climber
Oct 10, 2018 - 08:10pm PT
BTW
I like your thread and I think you offer sound advice.

And a confession.

I''m thinking of doing some financial instruments investing.

Sorry, no details. When SK & partner's strategy became known it killed Their returns.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Oct 10, 2018 - 10:45pm PT
This just bunches the knickers of the epicene grass combing sodomites.
Strike the t’gallants and rig the bentincks.
Norton

climber
The Wastelands
Oct 11, 2018 - 01:22pm PT
the DOW is down only 2000 points now from its high in six days

nothing to get excited about, unless of course you are short and banking big profits.....
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 11, 2018 - 04:15pm PT
Moose! Re your question:

ARE YOU SKEERD NOW?!

Moose

Nope! I did switch a considerable amount of an under-performing Vanguard mid-cap stock fund into Vanguard HealthCare last week. It was up over 16% YTD.

Darn! Now it's only up 13.93% YTD.






Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Oct 11, 2018 - 05:22pm PT
Moosetrader, please be so kind as to refresh my feeble memory as to the true particulars of our supposed agreement. Was it that the sun shall continue to rise in the east, albeit to a lesser height each day now? Or was it that weak men shall envisage a great tearing asunder of the bonds that bind us when they view uncertainty over the horizon? Sure and I can rely upon your innate goodness not to practice upon me in my disadvantaged position. You must also enlighten me as to whether we had agreed upon first or second generation Hexes.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 11, 2018 - 08:50pm PT
Reilly! I would advise you to sign off on that hex, maybe with a couple lawyers making sure that Moosedrool accepts delivery.

Someone who climbs as hard as Moose with an umbrella, is just not to be ignored.

john hansen

climber
Oct 11, 2018 - 09:47pm PT
It's about where it was in early July , three months ago.


It does not always go up.
briham89

Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
Oct 12, 2018 - 10:45am PT
I'm thinking an end of day Friday sell off is brewing...
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Oct 12, 2018 - 10:48am PT
Ho man my neck hurts.

I guess I'll stand by the door and look for bargains after a double bottom.
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Oct 12, 2018 - 12:19pm PT
I'm thinking an end of day Friday sell off is brewing...

I'm thinking if I flip a coin it will come up heads :)

If you'd like, it would be interesting for you to keep us up to date with your market timing plays . . .
Don't have to give a specific $$ amount, but rather something like if you've got a pot of X dollars, just say when you're putting what fraction into what investment. One anecdote won't really tell us anything material either way, but it might be fun to compare your results to dollar cost averaging into a broad index fund.
I would do the same, except that I'm basically buy and hold of either index funds or large cap funds that have very correlated performance, and so have nothing interesting to report.
briham89

Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
Oct 12, 2018 - 01:53pm PT
I'm thinking if I flip a coin it will come up heads :)

HAHA! Touche

Can't be right (wrong) unless you play ;). And based on how the day ended I was wrong! ha

FWIW I made 10% buy into a target retirement fund from "the pot" of money I have been sitting on in a federal money market account. This was because of the recent drop (over 5% of S&P high)
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Oct 17, 2018 - 12:28pm PT
Not much of a penny stocks guy but today I bought 300 shares of Largo Resources.

They are pulling a million dollars worth of vanadium per day out of a mine in Brazil.

Can't do any worse than my Guatemalan jade.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 18, 2018 - 07:43pm PT
Xcon! So true! The dreaded "Black Monday" of 1987 is always a real possibility in these troubled investment time.

In finance, Black Monday refers to Monday, October 19, 1987, when stock markets around the world crashed. The crash began in Hong Kong and spread west to Europe, hitting the United States after other markets had already sustained significant declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell exactly 508 points to 1,738.74 (22.61%).[1

In the long-run, Oct. 18, 1987, is a significant sell-off before the huge market run-up of the 1990's, before the big double sell-off of 2000 - 2001, & the great recession of 2008.

In this chart of the S & P 500 since 1950, despite all the horrible news, sell-offs, & ruined investors, the average somehow keeps going higher.

Interesting, ain't it?

Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Oct 18, 2018 - 08:38pm PT
xMan, don’t dig yer hole any deeper. Labor dug its own hole - how many Murricans don’t even graduate from high school? And if they do they’re only marginally literate. If they go to college half of em get degrees in irrelevancy. I know, morons should all be guaranteed great jobs sitting on their asses.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Oct 19, 2018 - 09:39am PT
xCon, I have worked with special needs kids but I really have a hard time understanding your gibberish. And it isn’t that I’m not appreciative of stream of consciousness - I guess I’m just not appreciative of stream of unconsciousness.

Here’s a nice concise synopsis, in English, of why wages have stagnated (in more politically correct terms):

In a typical economic recovery, companies have to raise wages in order to attract and retain increasingly scarce workers. However, there hasn’t been as strong a demand for more workers in this recovery because global growth has been slower.

Demographic trends across developed markets are an important part of the explanation. In the U.S., the main reason for the fall in the unemployment rate has been the retirement of baby boomers, a trend that the recession probably accelerated and that is likely to continue for decades. The U.S. labor force participation rate has shrunk by almost 4%, or more than 9 million workers, since the GFC. And because the retiring boomers have been replaced by younger and cheaper workers, the usual post-recession surge in wages, after adjusting for inflation, hasn’t materialized.
zBrown

Ice climber
Oct 21, 2018 - 02:24pm PT
Apparent ad which showed up on a news summary page

I may eat it later

https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4212778-nice-15_6-percent-yield-summit-midstream-life

Things are bad at Sears. They're worse at Kmart



https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/10/21/business/sears-bankruptcy-kmart/index.html
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Oct 23, 2018 - 07:32am PT
Yep. I'm a little skeered.
clifff

Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
Oct 23, 2018 - 11:23am PT
Paul Krugman Warns Trump Is Poised To Disregard Democratic House Victory

https://www.yahoo.com/news/paul-krugman-warns-trump-poised-065936913.html?.tsrc=daily_mail&uh_test=1_01

Krugman is convinced that if the Democrats win a majority in the House, Republicans will claim the election was stolen, deny the legitimacy of the victory, and create a “nightmarish political situation.”
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Oct 23, 2018 - 11:27am PT
Well, let’s hope that’s gud for the markets!
StahlBro

Trad climber
San Diego, CA
Oct 23, 2018 - 12:07pm PT
As usual, the GOP is driving full speed into another recession. Just like their liar-in-thief Cheeto Jesus, they will rape and pillage, then escape with their ill-gotten gains and leave nothing but a steaming pile behind. This time they will raid SS on the way out, unless they lose the house.

Then they will sit on the sideline and b*tch about the DEM’s not cleaning up the mess fast enough. A percentage of the voting public, having a short memory and poor critical thinking skills, will elect another GOP mob and the cycle will start all over again.

Ground Hogs Day.

Same as it ever was.

It is our karmic wheel.
Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Oct 23, 2018 - 03:10pm PT
As usual, the GOP is driving full speed into another recession. Just their like their liar-in-thief Cheeto Jesus, they will rape and pillage, then escape with their ill-gotten gains and leave nothing but a steaming pile behind.

This is nothing new, it's standard procedure.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Oct 23, 2018 - 08:33pm PT
You guys that think recessions, or the recovery from same, are the sole purview of either party should lose yer voting rights. It is quite clear not a one of you has read a book on economics.
Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Oct 24, 2018 - 07:13am PT
You guys that think recessions, or the recovery from same, are the sole purview of either party should lose yer voting rights. It is quite clear not a one of you has read a book on economics.

Is it just a coinkydink that Republicans rule over recessions?

And why do you place so much faith in economists? There's more science in sociology.
AKDOG

Mountain climber
Anchorage, AK
Oct 24, 2018 - 09:27am PT

Btw, do you know many rich teachers of economics?

It depends on what you consider rich.... Plenty of well off economists. A little knowledge in economic theory can go a long way in building and retaining wealth; with simple ideas like portfolio diversification, risk management, debt theory, leverage cycles, etc.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Oct 24, 2018 - 12:40pm PT
Sort of the same for "money managers". If they were so good at it they'd be rich and wouldn't NEED to work.

I choose my own investments.
StahlBro

Trad climber
San Diego, CA
Oct 24, 2018 - 01:00pm PT
The GOP “cut taxes and gut regulations” to “fix” the economy is complete horsesh*t and has no basis in fact.

They spend the money regardless, counting on capitalist voodoo to bail them out. It never happens.

Citizens United and Trickle Down economics. Corporate takeover of ‘Merica.
Jon Beck

Trad climber
Oceanside
Oct 24, 2018 - 01:13pm PT
Who needs economists when yous got Gene Simmons

https://www.thestreet.com/video/dow-nearing-a-1200-point-correction-says-kiss-legend-gene-simmons-14707143

Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Oct 24, 2018 - 01:18pm PT
Never was a Kiss fan, but I like Simmons' perspicacity.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Oct 24, 2018 - 01:22pm PT
Fat bottom girls....
Norton

climber
The Wastelands
Oct 24, 2018 - 02:02pm PT
well now the S&P 500 is down only 12% from its highs

traditionally bear market corrections are considered starting at 20% off the top so lots more to go

meanwhile, those with short positions are enjoying large and very fast profits

nothing to be skeered of, of course
i'm gumby dammit

Sport climber
da ow
Oct 24, 2018 - 02:12pm PT
both the s&p and dow are now down for the year. but don't worry. trump will wave a magical 10% tax cut at some point in the future in front of voters eyes so they won't see it.
briham89

Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
Oct 24, 2018 - 09:36pm PT
Target retirement fund down 11.8% from 52 week (and all time) high. Made another 10% purchase today.

That cat herding video LOL
briham89

Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
Oct 26, 2018 - 09:32am PT
More photos of flying first class and drinking fine wine please.

Why is that your assumption? I'm 28, can't afford a house, have a middle class income, and don't have an employee sponsored retirement plan. So I have to TRY to save for the future (retirement) on my own.

That's a far cry from flying first class and drinking fine wine....

Also why is the assumption that in trying to make the small amount of money I make go farther in the future, an indication, in your eye's, of not giving a f*#k about others in this world?
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Oct 26, 2018 - 10:19am PT
To feel envy is human, to savor schadenfreude is diabolic.
apogee

climber
Technically expert, safe belayer, can lead if easy
Oct 26, 2018 - 02:52pm PT
‘Libtard False Flag Operation’

Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 26, 2018 - 03:20pm PT
Apogee! I have a great idea. Why don't you start a new political thread with your previous post, since this is not a political thread. I swear I'm jonesing to post on a political thread, which this isn't.

I started this thread in August 2015, just after a very-short correction in the main U.S. stock indexes. I had hopes of knowledgeable investors sharing some good advice on long-term investing methods.

That certainly has happened. I appreciate some are offended by success stories here, since it not the Super-Topo way to brag, except for climbing stories, adventures, large trout, remodels, lifestyle, pets, girlfriends & wives, your teams, your political candidates, & your Christian beliefs.

As the apparent chief recent offender, I humbly apologize to those offended & I'll give you a schadenfreude moment about this offensive photo of Heidi in Business class on our flight to Europe in September.


Heidi is frowning, since our flight was due to depart for Munich at 6:15 PM & it was delayed to 12:30 A.M. due to thunderstorms. We had decided we needed to go to sleep right after take-off, since the next day was going to be "hell-day," with our friends, who were going to meet us in Munich, already off to Italy, & us with missed train connections to Italy. So, we missed fine wines & International Business class service & food, but did sleep OK, thanks to Ambien.

And we did have "Hell-afternoon" in Munich, but made it to an OK, but expensive hotel, in the seedy downtown central train station district, & departed to our wonderful Italian vacation early the next morning.
zBrown

Ice climber
Oct 26, 2018 - 03:43pm PT
Well, I worked for and knew reasonably well, a guy who was on the Forbes list.

I also knew these guys.

I don't think the money made them happy, but they all kinda liked the games.

Jon Beck

Trad climber
Oceanside
Oct 26, 2018 - 04:07pm PT
Will it affect the stock market?

Trump backers who have suggested the bombs are a liberal hoax:

Ann Coulter
Rush Limbaugh
Michael Savage
James Woods
Mike Flynn Jr.
Frank Gaffney
Kurt Schlichter
Candace Owens
David Horowitz
John Cardillo
Laura Loomer
Jacob Wohl
Chadwick Moore
John Lott

sorry Fritz, I could not resist :)
zBrown

Ice climber
Oct 26, 2018 - 04:38pm PT
Any those folks on the Forbes list?
Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Oct 26, 2018 - 06:38pm PT
‘Libtard False Flag Operation’
Oh, please, apogee, of course it was a Democratic conspiracy. Debbie Wasserman Schultz was the return address on all the bombs.

Duh!
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 26, 2018 - 07:06pm PT
xcon? If I understand your post?

how can you stand the dialogue it takes to stay in the business?

Is it about the stock market & the players in it, all being corrupt?

Indeed. There is a lot of corruption, especially at the highest levels with the "BIG" investment banking companies.

I, more or less, trust my favorite mutual fund manager Vanguard & although I do appreciate the "BIG" investment bankers will do all they can to manipulate the stock market, it remains, mostly, too big, for them to control.

As a bottom-feeder, I have enjoyed the scraps I pick up after the "BIG" money has their way.

Speaking of the current stock market correction, or near correction.

Here's some thoughts from the folks at Motley Fool.

1. Stock market corrections happen often

The first thing you should know is that stock market corrections happen -- and fairly often. The U.S. economy naturally peaks and troughs over time, and in response the stock market will also have its p