U.S. Stock market "CORRECTION!!" Why am I not "too-skeered"

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Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Feb 9, 2018 - 07:02am PT
Sell, sell, sell. Remember what happened last time they cut taxes and increased spending?

Reilly, you getting one of the new hybrids? We saw one on display at the Rose Bowl a few months ago. The gal said Volvo would pay for our flight to Gothenberg and put us up in a hotel while we picked out our new Volvo.
Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Feb 9, 2018 - 07:41am PT
Well, I don't like what I'm seeing at all. From an article earlier today by Thom Hartmann:

The entire “economic recovery” since 2008 has been based on artificially cheap money/credit, and depends on that remaining the case to maintain the appearance of stability...

...So, as soon as the Fed over the past month stopped buying bonds (also known as “ending Quantitative Easing”) and instead started selling them to get them off its balance sheet, US government bonds began to flood into the market.

As everybody knows, when there’s not as much demand as there is supply of something, an incentive is necessary to encourage buyers. In the case of debt, what that means is that the interest offered to induce people to buy debt must rise.

Thus interest rates on government bonds began to go up, to encourage the Chinese, Japanese, and Saudis to buy the US government debt that the Fed was unloading. At the same time, the Chinese and Saudis let the world know that they weren’t interested in buying more US government debt, further increasing the interest that bonds have to pay to find other buyers.

The additional $1.5 trillion to finance the Trump tax plan will just make things that much worse. Hartmann put "economic recovery" in quotes because our seemingly robust economy depends desperately on extremely cheap money--i.e., Fed rates very near zero. The current stock market drop is just a leading indicator of recession--which is likely to come if interest rates continue to rise.

Curt
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Feb 9, 2018 - 08:54am PT
. I'm looking to dollar cost average if Apple drops to $156

Done and done.
I'm in for the long haul and, so far, that has gone very well, although the real turning point was when dividend income exceeded living expenses.
krahmes

Social climber
Stumptown
Feb 9, 2018 - 09:56am PT
[Click to View YouTube Video]
StahlBro

Trad climber
San Diego, CA
Feb 9, 2018 - 10:33am PT
tRump's only comment on the market

"Making a big mistake!"

WTF? Who the hell is he talking to?

I guess that is what you get from someone who does not read and gets all his "oral briefings" from Faux news pundits kneeling before him.

Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 9, 2018 - 11:14am PT
This is a 10% correction. BFD. The sellers are FOMOs and dumb asses who didn’t plan accordingly.

BTW, Gary, I’m a lttle embarrassed to admit we didn’t get the hybrid. If we lived in a more
progressive state like Colorado the numbers woulda made it a no-brainer. Besides, with the
weight of the batteries the real world mpg numbers I’ve seen aren’t greatly better than the
regular ride.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 9, 2018 - 11:34am PT
Robert, The Economist has good introductory subscription rates. Or you can surf the web
and look at historical records. What is immutable is that with the increased involvement of
central banks recessions have been getting shorter and less frequent and recoveries are
more rapid. Will inflation suddenly blow up and turn this into an actual recession? There is
nothing to suggest that - the world’s economy has never been better and capitalism has
dragged many millions kicking and screaming out of dire poverty. I’m sure you will correct
me on that.
Jon Beck

Trad climber
Oceanside
Feb 9, 2018 - 11:42am PT
We are not even close to going down the path Greece is on. The problem over there is they had no economy to back up the borrowing. Their debt-to-GDP ratio is 180%, ours is a little over 100.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 9, 2018 - 01:57pm PT
There will be a poin at which nobody wants to buy our debt.

Where do you guys dream this stuff up? Even some Republicans are smarter than that.
StahlBro

Trad climber
San Diego, CA
Feb 9, 2018 - 01:57pm PT
That will be a while, but the debt payments will haunt our budget for a long time.
StahlBro

Trad climber
San Diego, CA
Feb 9, 2018 - 04:54pm PT
Yep, the future is being sacrificed on the altar of "I got mine".


[Click to View YouTube Video]
yosemite 5.9

climber
santa cruz
Feb 10, 2018 - 06:08pm PT
I made $1,400 in gains in the last hour on Friday. hopefully it will last.

I don't follow chartists. Though I will consider them as secondary evidence.

the computer programs that create these selloffs provide good buying opportunities.

Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 10, 2018 - 07:42pm PT
Yosemite 5.9!

Your gains late on Friday, when all involved, except for the computer programs, thought the market would tank some more, are impressive.

I can tell, you are one hellavu stock-picker.
Bruce Morris

Trad climber
Soulsbyville, California
Feb 10, 2018 - 08:25pm PT
Market hasn't gotten nearly low enough for me to start buying. At least, no yet . . . Only things I've been buying lately are Augustus Saint Gaudens double eagles MS 66. They're not going to wither and go away.
Bruce Morris

Trad climber
Soulsbyville, California
Feb 11, 2018 - 12:49pm PT
While if you are hoping to become comfortably financially independent now, through the stock guessing game, you have to play it like a casino, and not believe that you have won anything if you are still playing at the table.

That's why if you want to beat the House, you have to have mo' money than the House.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Feb 12, 2018 - 02:49pm PT
.the computer programs that create these selloffs provide good buying opportunities.
Precisely right!




On Thursday I said,
there will be another drop to "test" the bottom, probably soon.


Sometimes I even scare myself.


Apple closed above $163.
Back in the black and awaiting dividends.

(Missed an opportunity with Citigroup though)
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 12, 2018 - 06:54pm PT
Dropped mi iPhone in Sam Maloof’s garden Thursday, appropriately enough, and broke the
screen. That was a buy signal, right?

Robert, you’d do well to heed TV, he’s got a good track record, on many fronts.
Jon Beck

Trad climber
Oceanside
Feb 14, 2018 - 06:09am PT
CEO for Goldman Sachs has not felt this good since 2006 (said with a smirk on his weaselly face). That is the que for the little guy to grab his socks.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 14, 2018 - 12:54pm PT
Now it’s only a 6% correction. meh
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Feb 14, 2018 - 02:52pm PT
Thanks Reilly.

Robert L, I plan to raise some of those issues at a stockholder's meeting. I guess its easier just to whine on a climber's forum though, but less effective.

Berkshire Hathaway just bought Apple today, so I'm not the only one optimistic.


People were worried about inflation. Crude has crept over $60.
But a little inflation is a good thing.
Hell, we could see the Dow over 30K before 2020.
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