U.S. Stock market "CORRECTION!!" Why am I not "too-skeered"

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Messages 161 - 173 of total 173 in this topic << First  |  < Previous  |  Show All  |  Next >  |  Last >>
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 4, 2018 - 05:43pm PT
Reilly, how about we compare our returns the end of the year.

Dood, I’m not that kinda guy, although I did enjoy “Hedwig and the Angry Inch”.
zBrown

Ice climber
Jan 4, 2018 - 06:42pm PT
^Where are your tax returnz, Doodah? We all love a parade.

moosedrool

climber
Andrzej Citkowicz far away from Poland
Jan 5, 2018 - 03:50pm PT
LOL, not THOSE returns, zBrown.

Reilly, I mean, just the total percentage of our gains/losses.

Moose
zBrown

Ice climber
Jan 5, 2018 - 04:09pm PT


This is Reilly's accounting "team" on parade, but they ain't talking till after the audit.



Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 5, 2018 - 07:24pm PT
I just saw a pic of my CPA’s new yacht. I might not be getting squat! 😬
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 5, 2018 - 08:20pm PT
For the first week of 2018, major U.S. stock indexes are up the most for any first week, since 2006.

Here's what stock-watcher Zacks has to say on the subject:

First Five Days

The "first five days" trend is like the January barometer but on a smaller scale. If the S&P; 500 finishes higher in the first five days of the year, there is an 86 percent chance the stock market will end the year higher, according to a "Wall Street Window" article written by Matt Rego in January 2012. Some analysts, including Mark Hulbert of Hulbert Financial Digest, claim investors would do better avoiding these trends altogether. In a January 2010 Market Watch article, Hulbert points out that investors scared off by a down January in 1982 would have missed the beginning of the greatest bull market in history: The markets gained 25 percent in the last 11 months of 1982.
https://finance.zacks.com/january-stock-market-trends-6977.html

Do you like the odds?

I note, after that great start to 2006, the S & P 500 ended up with a 15.1% gain for the year.
surfstar

climber
Santa Barbara, CA
Jan 5, 2018 - 10:44pm PT
I'll just summarize the thread for anyone just jumping in, like me:

Nobody knows nuthin'.





(that means stay the course. low-cost index funds FTW)
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 5, 2018 - 10:48pm PT
Surfstar! No arguement here, per your post:

I'll just summarize the thread for anyone just jumping in, like me:

Nobody knows nuthin'.





(that means stay the course. low-cost index funds FTW)


And the next stock market crash will happen very-soon, or not.
Mungeclimber

Trad climber
Nothing creative to say
Jan 11, 2018 - 06:13pm PT
2018

Hedge time.

Cash ain't trash.

Opportunistic investing year.

Anyone watching the VIX?
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 12, 2018 - 08:12am PT
The SP500 is pushing overbought prime/lines, selling at 26.5 earnings.

13 straight weeks with the investors intelligence survey bullish level over 60, which has never happened and the AAII survey bullish level at numbers not seen but twice since 2004.

The market is in need of pullback.

Is this the blow off top?
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 12, 2018 - 08:28am PT
P/E ratios are not sacrosanct. This could be the new norm. All economic indicators other
than bond yield curves are strong. Europe is doing much better than it has for a long time.
The only potential shocks I see are geo-political, Italian debt, or Canadian housing bubble,
in descending order of likelihood and magnitude. Of course, if too many Norwegians suddenly
move to the US we could be in trouble, mainly due to a lack of fish balls for them to eat.

I just found another potential shock:

https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21591164-getting-15-trillion-assets-single-risk-management-system-huge-achievement

I’m sure every major hacker in the world is drooling over this juicy target.
Off White

climber
Tenino, WA
Jan 12, 2018 - 11:53am PT
I am divesting all my other investments to stock up on Gjetost for the coming Norweigan influx. I hear it's a better bet than Fish Balls.

Yum.
Yum.
Credit: Off White
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 12, 2018 - 05:36pm PT
Off White, fish balls keep longer, at least the tinned ones do. Those Norwegians might not
stay long so you don’t want to get stuck holding, ya know?
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