Ebola Outbreak Summer 2014

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crøtch

climber
Topic Author's Original Post - Aug 1, 2014 - 08:29am PT
News reports indicate that 1 or 2 health workers infected with Ebola will be flown from Africa to the US to be treated at Emory University in Georgia.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/ebola-crisis-prompts-cdc-to-warn-against-nonessential-travel-to-west-africa/2014/07/31/7f132634-18ce-11e4-9e3b-7f2f110c6265_story.html

In the grand tradition of Supertopo, I'll render an opinion on a field in which I have zero expertise....

Given that health care workers account for approximately 10% of the 700 deaths in this recent outbreak it seems to me like a colossally bad idea to bring infected patients into contact with US healthcare workers on this continent who will presumably go home to their families at the end of the day. Perhaps I'm overreacting, but at the moment this horrendous disease outbreak is confined to a single continent. A few days from now it will be here on our shores. Is that really a good idea? Do we really want to bring infected US citizens home rather than setting up a field hospital in Africa to treat them?

from CDC
“This is the biggest and most complex Ebola outbreak in history. Far too many lives have been lost already,” said CDC Director Tom Frieden, M.D., M.P.H. “It will take many months, and it won’t be easy, but Ebola can be stopped. We know what needs to be done. CDC is surging our response, sending 50 additional disease control experts to the region in the next 30 days.”

CDC expects its efforts not only to help bring the current outbreak under control, but to leave behind stronger systems to prevent, detect and stop Ebola and other outbreaks before they spread.

In addition to warning travelers to avoid going to the region, CDC is also assisting with active screening and education efforts on the ground in West Africa to prevent sick travelers from getting on planes. On the remote possibility that they do, CDC has protocols in place to protect against further spread of disease. These include notification to CDC of ill passengers on a plane before arrival, investigation of ill travelers, and, if necessary, quarantine. CDC also provides guidance to airlines for managing ill passengers and crew and for disinfecting aircraft. Earlier this week, CDC issued a Health Alert Notice reminding U.S. healthcare workers of the importance of taking steps to prevent the spread of this virus, how to test and isolate suspected patients and how they can protect themselves from infection.

At this time, CDC and its partners at points of entry are not screening passengers traveling from the affected countries. It is important to note that Ebola is not contagious until symptoms appear, and that transmission is through direct contact of bodily fluids of an infected, symptomatic person or exposure to objects like needles that have been contaminated with infected secretions.
locker

climber
STFU n00b!!!
Aug 1, 2014 - 08:30am PT

"Yer GONNA die!!!"...



EDITED:

With blood shooting out of your ears, eyes, nose and butt...

Best go ahead and send me all your gear since you'll no longer be needing it...

THANKS!!!...


crøtch

climber
Topic Author's Reply - Aug 1, 2014 - 08:32am PT
Lolloooloooll Locker! heheheehehehehehe. I'm frigging LOLing here.
locker

climber
STFU n00b!!!
Aug 1, 2014 - 08:34am PT


I pm'd my address and THANKS again!!!...



By the way, I wish we could have met...

Too late now...
crøtch

climber
Topic Author's Reply - Aug 1, 2014 - 08:39am PT
Rack and rope are on the way. Don't mind the blood stains. They should come right off with a little bleach. BTW, do you put the rope in your mouth to clip? Maybe practice a new method for a few weeks.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Aug 1, 2014 - 08:40am PT
Health care professionals who are going over there are like somebody soloing
Astroman, in a sleet storm. There are reports that it has a toehold, pardon
the climbing analogy, in Lagos, Nigeria. If that is true then it will be
game over for Africa, especially given the prevalent attitudes to it being
a form of witchcraft plus the reticence to cooperate with health care workers
because they are also seen as witches. I don't particularly fear it getting
established here. It is far more likely that it will get to Asia first,
and that would be very bad. It certainly is not unlikely that it could
get into the immigrant banlieues of Europe.
locker

climber
STFU n00b!!!
Aug 1, 2014 - 08:41am PT


This one got me laughing out loud to myself just now...

"BTW, do you put the rope in your mouth to clip? Maybe practice a new method for a few weeks."...

LOL!!!...

Good idea!!!...

climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Aug 1, 2014 - 08:46am PT
Headed to Atlanta? Seems like maybe the best place in the world to contain it? CDC is headquartered there I beleive.

What surprises me is that this is such a large outbreak compared to others I had heard of. Seems like it may be a more robust strain environmentally speaking than in the past. That is a scary thought.

Ebola has been hard to isolate in the wild. Years ago when I looked into it a little they did not know the source. Not sure if they do now. The reason for this is that in the past at least it is an extremely fragile virus that cannot survive airborne or for long outside the body.

Perhaps that is changing .. that would indeed be a terrifying mutation. A possible show stopper. As in possibly shutdown travel and economies worldwide and kill millions.


Tom Clancy wrote a plausible scenario regarding Ebola engineered as a WMD. The science and info in the story is quite good.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Aug 1, 2014 - 09:01am PT
Michael Crichton's The Andromeda Strain might be more a propos.
As you note it wouldn't be a very good bio weapon due to its fragility.
The sad thing is that in Africa it is a weapon, of ignorance.
crøtch

climber
Topic Author's Reply - Aug 1, 2014 - 09:04am PT
Yes, CDC is right there. My guess is that CDC is using this as an opportunity to test the leakiness of their BSL4 treatment capabilities looking for ways to tighten up their protocols.
stevep

Boulder climber
Salt Lake, UT
Aug 1, 2014 - 09:22am PT
Ebola would be a pretty poor bio-weapon. No airborne transmission and too highly lethal. You want something more like smallpox.
And no, a couple infected people coming back under close clinical supervision doesn't worry me too much.

For those interested in this sort of thing who have a smartphone, there is a game called Plague that you can get that doesn't pretty good job of modeling how changing different variables(transmission vectors, symptoms, mortality, treatment) affects spread and mortality. If you can get past the somewhat grim concept, it's pretty interesting.
overwatch

climber
Aug 1, 2014 - 09:32am PT
As long as you guys aren't worried...whew!
sandstone conglomerate

climber
sharon conglomerate central
Aug 1, 2014 - 09:37am PT
In Richard Preston's Hot Zone, the Ebola virus was suspected of mutating into an airborne strain that infected the poor chimpanzees with something similar to influenza. They hadn't been in contact with one another, i.e. bodily fluid transmission, as they were kept seperated. Anyone else read that book?
tioga

Mountain climber
pac northwest
Aug 1, 2014 - 09:38am PT
Ebola makes good bio-weapon, if one is able to taint food/water supply. Airborne transmission bioweapons are not the best, as they can not be controlled and will easily spread back to the attacking country. Non-airborne is good for precise targeting, limited to certain areas, and pose little threat of it spreading back to the source. This strain was likely transmitted via saliva drops...all these doctors were taking precessions against transmission yet they got infected; perfect chance to get this strain into the labs and develop a virus with limited airborne transmission capacity.

These "missionaries" are either nut jobs or (more likely) CIA agents--so of course they got to bring their "injured personnel" back to the grounds. Most likely they were CIA employees aiding in their "research" to begin with. Plus, the fake with the Malaysian plane didn't work out so Ob-ola needs another little scandal to distract attention from the border situation. He wages full on war, bringing scabies, tuberculosis and what's not along with illegal criminals across the border freely; early into his 1st term, he had allowed anyone with HIV immigrate into the US (which was not allowed before him). I wonder why Atlanta and not So Cal...oh wait in So Cal it might hurt illegals, god forbids.
rockermike

Trad climber
Berkeley
Aug 1, 2014 - 09:41am PT
I haven't listened to Alex Jones recently, but I'm sure its a lab brewed bio-war disease as is.... strategically planted in Africa to reduce the human population a-la the Bilderberg protocols..... or something like that. :)

Meanwhile my 80 year old mother is losing sleep over this. Keeps reminding me of the 50% die-off rate in the 14th century plague. But then when you are 80 there are lots of things to keep you awake.
overwatch

climber
Aug 1, 2014 - 09:43am PT
Tioga
You definitely think outside the box ...if I drank I would have one with you
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
Aug 1, 2014 - 09:49am PT
A bigger concern is the male from Stockton with anti-biotic resistant TB that escaped quarantine...
overwatch

climber
Aug 1, 2014 - 09:51am PT
For sure another concern
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Aug 1, 2014 - 09:52am PT
I actually know a lot about this field, and I have to say that I heartily agree with the OP on this.

One of the great defenses of our country, both against military and disease, are the vast oceans.

Moving a patient to Atlanta eliminates this huge advantage. Were I in charge, I would never have allowed this.

When talking about written accounts, by far the best is "The Hot Zone" by Richard Preston. It is a factually REAL account of another ebola outbreak, which occurred in Reston, Virginia. By the absolute grace of God, it turned out to be a strain that did not cause disease in humans, although it did infect humans. It had a 100% mortality rate in monkeys, though. And it was apparently airborne.

When you read about the astonishing TRUE incompetence by the CDC and other authorities, who were the world's experts in this virus, the concept of bringing patients with the disease into the country frightens me.

You might also consider that this is the same CDC that was recently cited for their inexcusable handling of weapon-grade infective materials.

Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Aug 1, 2014 - 09:54am PT
Sandstone, you are right about the books description.
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