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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Dec 19, 2013 - 01:42pm PT
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Yes, it's a giant government conspiracy.
Thanks for seeing through it for us with government graphs.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Dec 19, 2013 - 01:58pm PT
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Staring at many maps it can get hard to see the forest through the trees. Statistics helps to step back and see patterns. The RSS satellite series of lower-troposphere temperatures, for example, shows a trend of +.32C/decade in their northernmost latitude band. That's more than twice the +.13C/decade trend for the globe as a whole, seen in the same dataset for the same period.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Dec 19, 2013 - 02:02pm PT
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True, the line is just ordinary least squares, not the method Chief invented. We'll let him draw that one. Quantile regression and robust (IRLS) regression get about the same result as OLS (+.32 or +.33, respectively) but I'm sure we could find something else that doesn't.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Dec 19, 2013 - 02:42pm PT
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BTW: At the steady rate of warming you indicate below, it will take well over 250 plus years for it to attain the 2-3 or so Deg C increase that you all are fear mongering about.
Arithmetic fail. Let's see if someone else knows the answer. At the "steady rate of warming" (really it's just a trend line) indicated in the graph Poedtke shows below his comment, +.32C/decade, how long would it take to attain 2 of 3 degrees warming?
But of course, the rate won't be steady.
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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Dec 19, 2013 - 03:01pm PT
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I love you guys
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Dec 19, 2013 - 03:33pm PT
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Oh my! The "shet of Sandia", our esteemed government welfare program scientist Mentalcase has sunk to new lows in his gutter language. We know that you have no respect for yourself, but to address women like you did publicly upthread is going beyond the bounds. What would your mother think Mentalcase?
Chief i suggest we pump our septic leach fields, we don't want this turd fowling our underground gallery.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Dec 19, 2013 - 03:35pm PT
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All it takes is one or two major and lengthy volcanic eruptions and your statistic model based dreams are over.
I don't have statistic model based dreams. Maybe you do? It was you, not me, who tried extending that trend into the future. Although you could not even do the arithmetic.
The data and analysis in my graph cover the period 1/1979 to 11/2013, just as it says in big print at the top.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Dec 19, 2013 - 03:35pm PT
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So after almost 21,000 posts surely y'all have reached a consensus, right?
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Dec 19, 2013 - 03:38pm PT
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So after almost 21,000 posts surely y'all have reached a consensus, right?
Has that happened on one other long internet thread that you know of?
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Dec 19, 2013 - 05:39pm PT
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But like any good propaganda machine, the best source of potentially viable information that suites the agenda, ie that which our dear Larry Hamilton posted earlier, is utilized.
No Poedtke, I posted the RSS data because they have a time series with up-to-date (November 2013) coverage of high north latitudes (land and sea), and you had just posted a bunch of maps with declarations about northern regions.
Tells me that Russia and parts of Asia had a heat wave for the month of November 2013.
Here are the last eight Novembers for comparison: Lotta hot and cold in the same region of Russia/Asia Take a good look at the notes for the Antarctic and the Arctic as well as Spain...
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Dec 19, 2013 - 05:58pm PT
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Reilly,that is comedy right there.
"All this insistent bullshet from each and everyone of you Liberal Eco Freak Ideological Utopians"
Thanks for using "our" graphs and data.
At least we are organized,aye?
All you deniers could not organize a rockfight.
Ed and Chiloe,glad to see you two had a beer,you seem to be energized from them.
I would like to thank you for your constant defense here,and would be honored to have one with you someday.
Happy Holidays to all the rational folks here.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Dec 19, 2013 - 06:45pm PT
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Ed and Chiloe,glad to see you two had a beer,you seem to be energized from them.
I would like to thank you for your constant defense here,and would be honored to have one with you someday.
Since you and I are kinda Right Coasters, that's a possibility for me. Ed being a Left Coaster he takes some arranging. Cheers!
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Dec 19, 2013 - 06:49pm PT
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Chef,there really is something wrong with you ,dude.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Dec 19, 2013 - 06:49pm PT
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Let's see what the entire planet it doing. Not just one specific region Larry.
Poedtke, read my note, the same one you're getting so huffy about. It states the global trend for the same years, from the same RSS dataset, using the same method. Right there in simple words and numbers.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Dec 19, 2013 - 08:09pm PT
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Larry, is that raw data your graph has been based on? Any adjustments by throwing out anomalously cool outliers, detrending, smoothing, or outright reanalysis by model run if the data doesn't fit the desired slope? Smoke some more weed and calm down Wilbeer. It' s been a long day .
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Dec 19, 2013 - 08:23pm PT
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I would expect the old ass kissing remark.
But is that a Navy thing?
Not that there is anything wrong with that.
Truth be told ,they have made this thread a hell of resource,like it or not.
Along with the rest of the tribe.....hahaha
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Dec 19, 2013 - 08:25pm PT
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Sumner, Spencer's data shows about the same global trend.
You trust Spencer, right?
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Dec 19, 2013 - 08:30pm PT
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Larry, is that raw data your graph has been based on? Any adjustments by throwing out anomalously cool outliers, detrending, smoothing, or outright reanalysis by model run if the data doesn't fit the desired slope?
Rather than making sleazy insinuations, Rick, why not show instead of pretending intelligence, and check it out for yourself? RSS stands for these guys,
http://www.remss.com/measurements/upper-air-temperature
and the data I graphed are straight from their site.
And while you're at it, how about explaining in your own words what "raw data" means in this context? Do satellites measure troposphere temperatures by lowering a thermometer on a string, or what?
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Dec 19, 2013 - 09:30pm PT
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Remote sensing systems and IR,. Instead of attacks, every time someone questions the source materials and methods of data handling for your graphs, why not answer the question Larry. We know you got the data from RSS, but did you adjust it for your graph? By the way on your graphing solution for "the much ballyhooed hiatus", as you called it, where are the graphs that you said you entered the influences of the PDO, NAO, and/or AMO, and what values did you attach to them?
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Dec 19, 2013 - 10:01pm PT
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why not answer the question Larry Because it wasn't a real question, Rick, just more posing in which you insinuated I was crooked while tossing out a bunch of words you do not understand.
Larry, is that raw data your graph has been based on? Any adjustments by throwing out anomalously cool outliers, detrending, smoothing, or outright reanalysis by model run if the data doesn't fit the desired slope? In your own words now, what is reanalysis? How would detrending have steepened that slope? What do my mentioning of quantile and robust regression tell you about outliers?
Smoke some more weed and calm down Wilbeer. It' s been a long day. While you're sneering at Wilbeer, how about quoting for us exactly what Poedtke wrote, that Wilbeer was reacting to (rather mildly)? Go ahead, Poedtke's proud words are right above.
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