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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Thanks MN. Funny to see the contortions Salby goes thru to claim the jump in CO2 is natural.
He never shows a graph like the one below.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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We didn't lose the battle on any front Ed. Antarctica's interior is both cooling and gaining mass, consistent with with our point in the orbital mechanics cycles which makes winter several days longer than average in the southern hemisphere vice a versa in the northern hemisphere. This is but one of many natural mechanisms effecting change to the climate on planet Earth.
JoGill, you are not wrong. It smells like a dead rat because it is a dead rat. We need your expertise in math and your former training as a meteorologist to help in this battle. The consequences of this phony science movement will be a needlessly reduced standard of living, and perhaps a retreat from technology, that will negatively affect your family for generations to come.
Below is a presentation by longtime meteorologist Professor William M. Gray. I include this link not only for his indentification of flaws in CAGW, but especially for the last section of the paper- Negative consequences of politics trumping climate science. Ron, Chief, Jogill and others read this- he nails the reasons why in the end section.
http://typhoon.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/gray/2012.pdf
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Thanks McHale,no i mean that. The Gray article is their for all to lookup. Tell you the truth i had a few problems with his arguments but the reason i tried to provide the link was the final section where he identifies the stinkyness of the whole phony baloney industry. Judith Curry has climbed down the fence aways to the skeptic side. She is where Ed admitted to be a while back-"anthropogenic signal is rather weak compared to natural variation".
And while your having fun learning Ed policies are being put into place that in the end will matter not as far as global injection of CO2 into the atmosphere by humans. Production will just shift to countries that aren't insane enough to destroy their economies.
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McHale's Navy
Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
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It's strange how everyone you advocate is connected to The Heartland Institute one way or another. Judith Curry has become a clown like the rest. I always held out that she was real but that has been slipping away. You are correct, she has slipped to the Dark Side!
http://scienceblogs.com/illconsidered/2010/05/judith-curry-advocates-for-a-c/
Production will just shift to countries that aren't insane enough to destroy their economies.
We won't be doing that. You talk so much crap. You are amazing. You are the true alarmist.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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For validation of production shift, McHale, research the sources and quantities of electricity powering California's grid.
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BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
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He is talking about Milankovitch Cycles.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles
We see periodic cycles in sedimentary rocks. That is how sequence stratigraphy works, by defining maximum flooding surfaces and high stand tract systems.
In English, that says that we see rise and fall of sea level over and over and over. Most of it is eustatic sea level change, meaning planet wide. Some of it is geostatic, which is caused by local tectonic forces. Both play a role in sedimentary deposition.
The only way to have a 200 foot sea level change is most likely melting and freezing of continental ice caps. Exxon's research arm has a global sea level map if you want to look it up. Also the work of Blakey shows the positions through time of various continents and subcontinents.
Increase and decrease of ice is probably the result of climate fluctuations, and one of the postulated forces are the Milankovitch Cycles, although this isn't settled.
Here is a quote from wiki regarding present and future conditions:
As mentioned above, at present, perihelion occurs during the southern hemisphere's summer and aphelion during the southern winter. Thus the southern hemisphere seasons should tend to be somewhat more extreme than the northern hemisphere seasons. The relatively low eccentricity of the present orbit results in a 6.8% difference in the amount of solar radiation during summer in the two hemispheres.
Since orbital variations are predictable,[17] if one has a model that relates orbital variations to climate, it is possible to run such a model forward to "predict" future climate. Two caveats are necessary: that anthropogenic effects may modify or even overwhelm orbital effects; and that the mechanism by which orbital forcing influences climate is not well understood.
The amount of solar radiation (insolation) in the Northern Hemisphere at 65° N seems to be related to occurrence of an ice age. Astronomical calculations show that 65° N summer insolation should increase gradually over the next 25,000 years.[18] A regime of eccentricity lower than the current value will last for about the next 100,000 years. Changes in northern hemisphere summer insolation will be dominated by changes in obliquity ε. No declines in 65° N summer insolation, sufficient to cause a glacial period, are expected in the next 50,000 years.
An often-cited 1980 study by Imbrie and Imbrie determined that, "Ignoring anthropogenic and other possible sources of variation acting at frequencies higher than one cycle per 19,000 years, this model predicts that the long-term cooling trend that began some 6,000 years ago will continue for the next 23,000 years."[19]
More recent work by Berger and Loutre suggests that the current warm climate may last another 50,000 years
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Yes thanks Base. I just took for granted we all knew we were talking Milankovitch cycles. Sorry Ed, if by referring to orbital mechanics i confused the terms in your mind. Anyway, if you take into account the orbital and axial cycles, the fact we came out of a grand minima of solar activity coinciding with the little ice age, to the mid to late 20th century grand maxima of solar activity, then throw in fluctuations of oceanic cycles of differing frequency you can easily explain the 0.7 c global temp increase of the 20th century with only a feeble anthropogenic contribution. We don't have to link paper after paper to appreciate this-just as validation.
Now about the possibility of disastrous climate change policy.......
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McHale's Navy
Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
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I just took for granted we all knew we were talking Milankovitch cycles.
You are so full of sh#t.
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jgill
Boulder climber
Colorado
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But a dark secret lurks in the northern forests. Over the last decade, Canada has not so quietly become an international mining center and a rogue petrostate. It's no longer America's better half, but a dystopian vision of the continent's energy-soaked future
I question whether it was ever America's better half. Forty years ago I drove the trans Canadian highway across the Rockies and was appalled at the levels of air pollution in some of the mountain valleys - sawmills and lumber processing gave rise to a stench I had not encountered since years before leaving Tuscaloosa, Alabama with its giant paper mill on the Black Warrior River spewing truly toxic fumes that would settle into neighborhoods on still winter nights with suffocating effects.
I remember going out to exercise at the Alabama practice fields one chilly and still autumn morning in the mid 1960s while my family and I were visiting my parents. Pools of noxious yellowish vapors lay in atmospheric puddles, and to breath this gas was to cough and retch. A few years later Jack Warner closed the plant, concluding it would be impossible to meet newly imposed air quality standards. He and my father were sometime lunch companions. Many workers lost their jobs - but other cleaner industries eventually moved into the area and offered employment. The air is much more breathable now. Good progress has been made. Time now to think ahead to the results of climate change and how to mitigate those problems before they are upon us.
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WBraun
climber
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See ^^^
This man has good intelligence.
It didn't take a graph .....
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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It gets tiring, the cookie cutter attacks-show us a model that works. You can't, they don't and won't work until they allow the natural mechanisms.
Lately I've taken to the same attack dog tactics as your guys side. I shouldn't take this seriously, but I do. Working in my industry with ever increasing regulation, compliance payments, and escalating paper shuffling- all of which makes not a bit of improvement to the environment makes a man a bit skeptical of government policy.
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McHale's Navy
Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
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John didn't say Anthropomorphic. This reminds me of 'Simon Says'.
:>)
Rick, I don't know what you expect. Everyone you put on the pedestal of Knowledge is a quack that belongs to The Heartland Institute. Granted, they are all for business et al, but they could face the facts for the sake of humanity. It's going to be a tough road to hoe no matter what.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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What the hell are you talking about now Ed? The burden of proof falls to the guys making extraordinary claims of catastrophe, not on those that point out the observations don't square with the models. So you claim i'm incapable-well prove it buddy, get on that 5.15 yourself and send the models to everyone's satisfaction, i'll stick with my 5.3d's and continue to point out flaws, inconsistencies and common sense alternatives. You aint getting rid of my protest so easy. And yes, any idiot can easily see a .7 c rise out of a 1.5 c deficit.
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McHale's Navy
Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
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Troll^^^^^^^ Jean Luc Picard could make it so, but you can't Rick.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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We have a fundamental difference in philosophy Ed. I'm saying we have 7.2 billion people on this planet and the only alternative is up, there is no lifeline to the ground of the past. You are in effect giving up on humanity, you want to return to the ground of the past. It won't work Ed, not without untold suffering. Why can't our scientists of today solve the problems of the immediate future, why in this field is it all chicken little?
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