In no case does the p-value for any choice of start year, for any choice of data set, reach the “statistically significant” range. Therefore, for no choice of start year, for no choice of data set, can you make a valid claim to have demonstrated a slowdown in warming. As a matter of fact, in no case does the p-value for any choice of start year, for any choice of data set, get as low as the 10% level. To put it another way, there’s just no valid evidence of a “slowdown” which will stand up to statistical rigor.
Bottom line: not only is there a lack of valid evidence of a slowdown, it’s not even close.
Those who insist there definitely has been a “pause” or “hiatus” in temperature increase (which seems to include all of those who deny the danger from man-made climate change) either don’t really know what they’re doing, or — far worse — they do know what they’re doing but persist in making claims despite utter lack of evidence.
While the signal-to-noise ratio has been quite loud lately
Well yes but your comment brought to mind something substantive and relevant to various discussions here -- from the Schmidt commentary I linked upthread. Dr. Schmidt notes indications that the satellite temperature indexes (UAH and RSS), being more buffeted around by ENSO, appear to have a lower signal-to-noise ratio than the surface temperature indexes. That's something I would have guessed also from just looking at the satellite series, which show more erratic month-to-month fluctuations.
If you adjust UAH temps for the ENSO effect, they too would have set a record high in 2014, though not by much. On the other hand the GISTEMP record stands even out more, because it occurred in a non-Nino year. On some pseudoscience blogs we've had people claiming for ages that ENSO caused global warming.
Wow that must sting.
Poor John Coleman, weatherman and hardcore denialist.
His opinion is rejected and renounced by his own former company, the Weather Channel, who declared:
The climate of the earth is indeed warming, with an increase of approximately 1 - 1 1/2 degrees Fahrenheit in the past century, more than half of that occurring since the 1970s. The warming has taken place as averaged globally and annually; significant regional and seasonal variations exist.