Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Sketch

Trad climber
H-ville
Jul 2, 2014 - 04:20am PT
Raymond - Again, how much warming/cooling have we experienced since 2001?
Sketch

Trad climber
H-ville
Jul 2, 2014 - 04:51am PT
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH

Jul 1, 2014 - 06:23pm PT

There's been less air warming, and more ocean warming, than the mean of most models in earlier IPCC reports projected. But it you'd been paying any attention or could think for yourself you would know that, and much more on the topic, rather than still barfing this up as if it were a smart talking point.

I asked how much. You respond with a vague "less". And then make some condescending insults.

Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH

Jul 1, 2014 - 06:27pm PT

This is your cooling? Can I guess you never did look up the definition of "statistical significance"? Or learn what "cherry picking" means?

Look at you. More insults. You question the cooling even though I didn't claim there was cooling. Then you start preaching about "statistical significance" and "cherry picking".

Pretty funny coming from someone who explained the difference between the temperature record and IPCC models as "less".

I didn't cherry pick. I used 2001 because Easterbrook made his prediction in 2000.

Last week your wrote a criticism of my behavior on this site. And now, here you are... taking the low road... even though I've said nothing derogatory to you.

Is it only bad behavior when the other guys do it?
raymond phule

climber
Jul 2, 2014 - 05:07am PT

Look at you. More insults.

How can you read that as an insult?

My answer to your question. There has been no statistical significant cooling or warming during that time period and nothing suggest that it has been any cooling, shorter winters, less arctic sea ice, warming of the oceans, record warm in most records after 2000, quite warm now, to name a few things.

If he made his prediction in 2000 I would think that we should look at the trend from 2000 and 2001.
Sketch

Trad climber
H-ville
Jul 2, 2014 - 05:19am PT
Has the IPCC been more accurate in their temperature predictions?
Sketch

Trad climber
H-ville
Jul 2, 2014 - 05:28am PT
Shorter Winters?



I'm not sure, but I think some of the Great Lakes set a record for latest seasonal ice in 2014.
Sketch

Trad climber
H-ville
Jul 2, 2014 - 05:38am PT
Time for a little light humor.

raymond phule

climber
Jul 2, 2014 - 06:24am PT

Has the IPCC been more accurate in their temperature predictions?

I am not sure because I don't know what predictions Easterbrook actually made. IPCC don't fake their graphs though. His graph (maybe it is his prediction show that the temperature around 2010 should be at the 1980 level if I remember correctly. I don't think that is true.

I really don't know how to measure length of winters in square kilometers like your graph show. Can you explain?

What I meant with shorter winters is that it is a clear decreasing trends in snow cover in the spring.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jul 2, 2014 - 06:40am PT
Looks like the climate blogosphere is all excited about discovery of fudging in the official government u.s and global temperature records.
Hah, the pseudoscience bloggers did get all excited. If you kept reading even in that hall of mirrors, AW has already learned that every one of his accusations is false; he's been backpedaling to find something else. But you stopped reading even your own bloggers before that?
Sketch

Trad climber
H-ville
Jul 2, 2014 - 07:00am PT
In 2000 (I think that's the correct year), Easterbrook said:

“For the next 20 years, I predict global cooling of about 3/10ths of a degree Fahrenheit, as opposed to the one-degree warming predicted by the IPCC,”

From the first IPCC Assessment report:

"Based on current models, we predict: under [BAU] increase of global mean temperature during the [21st] century of about 0.3 oC per decade"

True, snow cover doesn't equal Winter length. But there is a correlation. About the same as late Spring snow cover.

Do you have more definitive proof of shorter Winters.

raymond phule

climber
Jul 2, 2014 - 07:08am PT

True, snow cover doesn't equal Winter length. But there is a correlation. About the same as late Spring snow cover.

Really? Snow cover in the middle of the winter has the same correlation with winter length as spring snow cover?
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Jul 2, 2014 - 07:20am PT
Sketch you are patheitc. find the data yourself .

Better yet answer the question you are too gutless to adress:

What evidence exists that the institutional science cannot bec trusted?

You will note that Sumner is also too gutless to answer, so take solace that at least you are one of many too gutless.
Sketch

Trad climber
H-ville
Jul 2, 2014 - 07:27am PT
Regarding winter length, I would guess you'd want to consider early season snow cover. Just eyeballing the Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Anomalies of October, November and December, it seems there's been an increase in early snowfall. But this issue is secondary to overall global temps.

Again, has the IPCC been more accurate in their temperature predictions?
raymond phule

climber
Jul 2, 2014 - 07:56am PT
Yes, he has been more correct with that prediction if he actually said that but it really is more complicated than just comparing trends. He made the claim at a time that seems to have a higher than expected temperature.

Do you understand that the graph he shows is fake and is incorrect and that he is incorrect when he claims that he made a correct prediction of a cooling phase?
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jul 2, 2014 - 08:20am PT
NASA's OCO-2 carbon counting mission is now in polar orbit.

http://www.nasa.gov/content/oco-2-lifts-off-on-carbon-counting-mission/index.html#.U7QRyfldWSo

Sketch

Trad climber
H-ville
Jul 2, 2014 - 08:21am PT
raymond phule

climber

Jul 2, 2014 - 07:56am PT
Yes, he has been more correct with that prediction if he actually said that but it really is more complicated than just comparing trends. He made the claim at a time that seems to have a higher than expected temperature.

Wow. That's an impressive rationalization.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 2, 2014 - 08:28am PT
Do you have more definitive proof of shorter Winters.

I suppose that depends on where you look. Climate scientists predict harsher winters in some areas, harsher drought in others.


Just eyeballing the Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Anomalies of October, November and December, it seems there's been an increase in early snowfall. But this issue is secondary to overall global temps.


You're not looking in the western Norther Hemisphere, are you. In California, I used to prepare for winter snow before Thanksgiving, we usually had snow in late October, early Nov. The past few years, it's been bone dry at Christmas. No cross-country skiing for us! The drought in the western states is severe. You don't get that from "an increase in early snowfall," now do you?

So Sketch, where did you get the data that allows you to make the "increase in early snowfall" claim? From here, it looks like cherry-picked data.
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jul 2, 2014 - 08:28am PT
As most here recognize, the blog WUWT supplies many of the talking points that Sketch, Rick and other denialists rush to repeat, thinking they've got another zinger. They never do, but if all you read is political bloggers, then that's the "science" world you see.

For a more science-literate alternative it's worth checking out the shadow blog by Sou, called Hot Whopper. No one can keep up with the WUWT rate of posting but Sou does quite a job of skeptically noting (and archiving) WUWT gems. Also writes in a quite snarky style, which the material richly deserves. Sou includes many astonishing quotes from WUWT reader comments as well, so that culture looks more familiar when Sketch, Rick etc. bring it here.

For example, here is Sou's note on Anthony's recent temperature follies.
Lost for words

Today Anthony Watts is lost for words. So lost that when he found out that NCDC/NOAA had responded to a query from Politifact, he just posted the response "without comment" (archived here). The response from NCDC was, unsurprisingly, that their algorithms are working as intended. You can read it in full in the archived WUWT article. It is just as Nick Stokes and others wrote.

Anthony peevishly wrote "The NCDC has not responded to me personally, I only got this by asking around." Yeah, you'd think that after Anthony's lunatic rantings at all and sundry and misrepresenting the NCDC they'd at least have paid him the courtesy of writing to him, the "bigger than Ben Hur" denier blogger, "personally"!

He stomped about for at least three hours trying to figure out how to get back at the NCDC/NOAA for ignoring him and his anti-science blog. "How could they do that?" He fumed. "I just put in a huge amount of effort telling my readers how bad and unscrupulous and wrong and positively evil the NOAA is and they ignore me."

The fact that it was Anthony who was so dreadfully wrong in almost everything he wrote about the US temperature record would have been beside the point. He wanted to stir up a hornets' nest, but the hornets flew off over his head. He wasn't worth even a little sting.

Anyway, check out Hot Whopper. Well worth reading as an antidote to the WUWT claims so often shopped here.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 2, 2014 - 08:31am PT
Sketch, why do you believe non-scientific blogs over true scientific findings?


BTW, that [Time for a little light humor.] was a funny vid ...
Sketch

Trad climber
H-ville
Jul 2, 2014 - 08:46am PT
Oh joy. More personal attacks.

Some many of you seem to prefer this tactic over actually addressing my posts.

SSDD

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global-snow/2013/10
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 2, 2014 - 09:04am PT
Oh joy. More personal attacks.

Really? Me thinks you are paranoid.



Thanks for the link to the NOAA article, put me in my place.

How can it be that snowfall in the NH is going up, but the entire western US is in severe three-year drought? Could it be that warmer air holds more moisture, which results in bigger storms? Notice too, from the same article, that NH sea ice is going down.

I'm thinking this is in alignment with what climate scientists have predicted.
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