Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Aug 20, 2014 - 06:26am PT
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/food-and-wine/food-trends/jellyfish-from-sea-creature-to-crisp-and-refreshing-cuisine/article20124099/
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
Aug 20, 2014 - 06:32am PT
As for my opposition to catastrophic AGW often presented here and the media. Mine is a reasoned response built upon the totality of the facts Ive been able to ascertain from voluminous materiels that I am able to access as a layman. Intuition has little to do with it.


Intuition has everything to do with it. look, where does all this voluminous material come from? Somebody produces it right? The question always boils down to how you ascertain this material that some other person produces as "best known" or not. You being a layman cannot verify. You cannot ascertain fact. You can only accept ( or not) thier claims of fact.

A person who cannot ascertain fact, such as some guy in the Congo wondering how to respond to people dropping dead from Ebola, can only access their intuition in order to form a decision.

Or he can trust in those who can. Unfortunately the guy in the congo has nvested his institutional trust along with all his neighbors in the local witch doctor, all intuitively of course as there again he cannot verify.

If you can't produce the work yourself, or reproduce it or otherwise test it to verify the process, the only thing left in your quiver is intuition or institutional trust. Both are highly reliant on trust, all due to the fact that you personally couldn't fight your way out of a wet paper bag.
So yes Intuition has everything to do with your judgement.

The question is - is it any good? What do you think?
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 20, 2014 - 09:09am PT
Mine is a reasoned response built upon the totality of the facts Ive been able to ascertain from voluminous materiels that I am able to access as a layman.

it just happens that you're "reasoned response" is demonstrably wrong.

you shouldn't feel bad about that, it's how science progresses. The key at this point, however, is to abandon your pet hypothesis that have shown to be inconsistent with observation and data and move on.

I suspect you're not going to do that.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Aug 20, 2014 - 09:23am PT
from the Green & Bensen Bugaboo Rock; A Climber's Guide

Pigeon Spire (p. 121)

West Ridge

Ascend upper Vowall Glacier to Pigeon-Howser Col.
Follow easy snow gully to notch on ridge proper near west end. Scramble up to SW Summit (false) via easy friction slabs. Down climb to notch and climb up to second false summit. Step right and down-climb a narrow chimney or jam crack to sloping ledges on northeast side. Alternatively, step left, follow ledge system that descends to same sloping ledges on northwest side. Traverse east and follow line of least resistance until it is possible to follow hand and finger cracks to summit gully. Scramble gully/ledge system to summit blocks.
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Aug 20, 2014 - 10:11am PT
^ It's a fine easy climb.
I've guided it.

But I wouldn't use it for my avatar.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Aug 20, 2014 - 10:16am PT
The point is: IT will be TOO LATE in 40 years to stop the effect of too much greenhouse gases.
We either react NOW, without the 100% proof of hindsight,
or wait until the consequences will be 10 times as severe.

!!!Hyperbole Alert!!!

IT WILL BE TOO LATE.

This is the sort of claptrap the chief pounces upon. This time I'm joining him. I won't vote for any politician who voices this opinion.

And I'm no denialist.

DMT
TomCochrane

Trad climber
Santa Cruz Mountains and Monterey Bay
Aug 20, 2014 - 10:19am PT
i don't consciously take anything on faith, and consider that most of what we think we know is just glimpses of reality

i have more trust in the sciences than in most other known philosophies, with the caveat that physical sciences tend to be biased towards demonstrably limited world views

the community of physicists/cosmologists/astronomers/space explorers/computer scientists/genetic engineers/materials scientists/etc is having great fun expanding human understanding of the universe

i have the greatest respect for all that exploration and discovery process

global climate modeling and ecosystems modeling are some of the more challenging domains to understand, which doesn't change the easily observable facts that humans are clearly effecting them dramatically

i quoted Gifford Pinchot III above...he is one of my best friends and most trusted advisers, a skilled rock climber/alpinist/skier/outdoorsman...and wishing he would actively participate in our discussions here

Science claims to have an evidence based way of knowing, but it claims to know things with equal certainty whether they are based on evidence or on scientifically orthodox beliefs that are not supported by evidence

i anticipated that would get a rise out of some people here, as i probably have not been quite so diplomatic about expressing this opinion

having said all that, i'll re-empathize my opinion that the portion of what we know relative to what we don't know is miniscule, hence advising massive doses of humility regarding what we think we know
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Aug 20, 2014 - 11:15am PT
IT WILL BE TOO LATE.

This is the sort of claptrap the chief pounces upon. This time I'm joining him. I won't vote for any politician who voices this opinion.

And I'm no denialist.

DMT

How do you know it is claptrap? Have you done a calculation to prove it is not possible?

From what I've read, 40 years is much too late. The physics says we can only put so much CO2 into the atmosphere.

Have you seen the emission curve? It is increasing when it should be decreasing.

If you watched the youtube videos I posted, 2015 is when CO2 emissions should peak. Thanks to various as#@&%es, that's not going to happen.

Yer grandkids are toast.

In response to a question from the audience, she said: “Unless we take action on climate change, future generations will be roasted, toasted, fried and grilled.”
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/02/05/1546471/imf-chief-unless-we-take-action-on-climate-change-future-generations-will-be-roasted-toasted-fried-and-grilled/
The IMF is the International Monetary Fund, hardly an environmental organization.
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Aug 20, 2014 - 11:19am PT
Bravo Tom. How true it is that the portion we know is miniscule. Certainly, the 95% certainty of consensus CC science lacks the same percentage of verification by observational fact. The theory of anthro produced CO2 as the primary control knob has failed, but Ed will never unambiguously acknowledge that.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Aug 20, 2014 - 11:25am PT
How do you know it is claptrap?

Why not 39? 41? 152? Why forty? Why did I hear we had ten years to act... ten years ago? That NOW is too late, back then? Huh? I'll tell you why - its made up bullshit that's why. And this made up hyperbole gives fuel to the deniers.

From what I've read, 40 years is much too late.
From what I've read we're already dead.

Yer grandkids are toast.
So what?

DMT

HighDesertDJ

Trad climber
Aug 20, 2014 - 11:31am PT
consider that most of what we think we know is just glimpses of reality


What an unbelievably specious argument. You state a general truth but then infer that therefore we cannot possibly know the truth of this circumstance. By the same logic of course we can't know the truth of anything and should have never attempted to land on the moon, transplant a heart or create the internet. People used to navigate the ocean using a sextent and stars. Talk about a glimpse of reality. And yet they were capable of creating global trade networks.

Dingus posted
Why not 39? 41? 152? Why forty? Why did I hear we had ten years to act... ten years ago? That NOW is too late, back then? Huh? I'll tell you why - its made up bullshit that's why. And this made up hyperbole gives fuel to the deniers.

Wow if only there was some way to know the answers to your question. And why is it that perceived hyperbole on the part of climate advocates is so awful and your hyperbole is so justified?
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Aug 20, 2014 - 11:34am PT
From what I've read we're already dead.

From what I've read, we can
(1) cut emissions drastically now
or
(2) continue as is, and have the climate steadily get worse

If you're over 50 & you don't care about future generations, then option 2
lets you live most of the rest of your life in relative comfort whereas option 1 is unknown.

IMO option 2 is for cowards.


Yer grandkids are toast.
So what?

The truth at last.
HighDesertDJ

Trad climber
Aug 20, 2014 - 11:35am PT
Fortmental posted
Dude. Get off the crack pipe. WHAT glaciers?

If you don't know that there are glaciers in Mexico then maybe you shouldn't be posting.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Aug 20, 2014 - 11:37am PT
And why is it that perceived hyperbole on the part of climate advocates is so awful and your hyperbole is so justified?

Justified? What are you smoking?

DMT
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Aug 20, 2014 - 11:38am PT
IMO option 2 is for cowards.

Go ahead, paddle across the Rubicon.

DMT
TomCochrane

Trad climber
Santa Cruz Mountains and Monterey Bay
Aug 20, 2014 - 11:40am PT
it's nice to know that some people have it all figured out...

i am reminded of a local bumper sticker:

"Quick, hire a teenager while they still know everything!"
TomCochrane

Trad climber
Santa Cruz Mountains and Monterey Bay
Aug 20, 2014 - 11:49am PT
http://news.yahoo.com/melting-antarctic-ice-threatens-worlds-megacities-162902537.html


Melting Antarctic Ice Threatens the World's Megacities
By Kristine Wong | 2 hours ago

A first-of-its-kind study finds that global sea levels could rise 20 percent higher by 2100 than previously estimated due to melting ice in Antarctica.

“A 20 percent higher sea level makes a bad situation worse,” said Robert Bindschadler, a glaciologist and co-author of the study published in the journal Earth Systems Dynamics.

“Right now nine of the 10 largest cities—Mexico City being the only exception—are coastal cities,” said Bindschadler, an emeritus researcher at NASA Goddard Space Center who collaborated with Anders Levermann at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. “Nearly half of the world’s population, almost 3 billion people, live at or near the coast. We are placing ourselves in harm’s way.”
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Aug 20, 2014 - 11:54am PT
This is a perfect example of the hyperbole involved. Read these two sentences closely and watch how the author, Kristine Wong, twists the words.

Purposely.

Melting Antarctic Ice Threatens the World's Megacities
By Kristine Wong | 2 hours ago

A first-of-its-kind study finds that global sea levels could rise 20 percent higher by 2100 than previously estimated due to melting ice in Antarctica.

“A 20 percent higher sea level makes a bad situation worse,” said Robert Bindschadler, a glaciologist and co-author of the study published in the journal Earth Systems Dynamics.

Shame shame shame!

Yall who defend this sort of 'reporting?' The sh#t splatters on your science. Calculate the cost of an eroded faith.

DMT
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Aug 20, 2014 - 11:59am PT
Small fluctuations in the sizes of ice sheets during the last ice age were enough to trigger abrupt climate change, scientists have found.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/08/140818224825.htm
raymond phule

climber
Aug 20, 2014 - 12:04pm PT

Read these two sentences closely and watch how the author, Kristine Wong, twists the words.

In what way were those words twisted?

It is also kind of strange to say that the author of the note twisted those words when one of the sentences were a quote.
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