Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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sandstone conglomerate

climber
sharon conglomerate central
May 15, 2014 - 11:35am PT
Let the dumbasses build on the ocean. The ocean doesn't care, not for graphs, charts, schedules, predictions, million dollar condos, whatever. It'll swallow that sh#t whole when the time comes.
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 15, 2014 - 11:39am PT
“How you think matters more than what you think.”

It’s a matter of judgement style, first expressed by the ancient Greek warrior poet Archilochus: “The fox knows many things; the hedgehog one great thing.” The idea was later expanded by essayist Isaiah Berlin. In Tetlock’s interpretation, Hedgehogs have one grand theory (Marxist, Libertarian, whatever) which they are happy to extend into many domains, relishing its parsimony, and expressing their views with great confidence. Foxes, on the other hand are skeptical about grand theories, diffident in their forecasts, and ready to adjust their ideas based on actual events.

The aggregate success rate of Foxes is significantly greater, Tetlock found, especially in short-term forecasts. And Hedgehogs routinely fare worse than Foxes, especially in long-term forecasts. They even fare worse than normal attention-paying dilletantes — apparently blinded by their extensive expertise and beautiful theory. Furthermore, Foxes win not only in the accuracy of their predictions but also the accuracy of the likelihood they assign to their predictions— in this they are closer to the admirable discipline of weather forecasters.

http://longnow.org/seminars/02007/jan/26/why-foxes-are-better-forecasters-than-hedgehogs/


Now watch this..... Chuff will call himself a fox!
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
May 15, 2014 - 11:39am PT
You'll learn more about why people do and think what they think and do by studying economics than you will studying psychology.
philo

Trad climber
Is that light the end of the tunnel or a train?
May 15, 2014 - 11:39am PT
Chuffie you can hold on to your misconceptions as long as you want it won't change the facts on the ground or at sea one whit.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
May 15, 2014 - 11:43am PT
Its going to be 100 degrees here today....

DMT
Bruce Kay

Gym climber
BC
May 15, 2014 - 11:43am PT
Better yet chaz is a Economics Psychologist

[quote]Daniel Kahneman
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


Daniel Kahneman (Hebrew: דניאל כהנמן‎, born March 5, 1934) is an Israeli-American psychologist. He shared the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences with Vernon L. Smith. Kahneman is notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, behavioral economics and hedonic psychology.[/quote

You might want to study up before that big property purchase
philo

Trad climber
Is that light the end of the tunnel or a train?
May 15, 2014 - 11:44am PT
Even our own Military thinks that Global Climate Change is a significant threat.
Not Chuffie and the gang though. They are just to smart to be fooled by such obviously tyrannical Government over-reach.
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
May 15, 2014 - 11:45am PT
"misconceptions" would be apt if chuff was capable of conceiving an idea; instead of being a parrot
philo

Trad climber
Is that light the end of the tunnel or a train?
May 15, 2014 - 11:52am PT
Bwaaaak stupid want a crapper.
philo

Trad climber
Is that light the end of the tunnel or a train?
May 15, 2014 - 12:03pm PT
Even our own Military thinks that Global Climate Change is a significant threat.
Not Chuffie and the gang though. They are just to smart to be fooled by such obviously tyrannical Government over-reach.
The Chief

climber
Laughing at all the Sheep from atop the Hill
May 15, 2014 - 12:09pm PT
philo

Trad climber
Is that light the end of the tunnel or a train?

May 15, 2014 - 09:03am PT
Even our own Military thinks that Global Climate Change is a significant threat.

Oh boy!


Philo NOW agrees with the "Military".

Just like they stated Saddam and his Iraq was a ... "Significant Threat".


Let's see now.


 The DOD also stated during all those nuclear bomb tests back in the 40's and 50's, that the radiation those SM's were exposed to wasn't anything to worry about.

 The DOD also stated that Agent Orange wasn't anything to worry about.

 The DOD also stated that daily intake of Marfloquine wasn't anything to worry about. I now suffer from several severe long term side affects from doing so over a 24 year period. It was totally banned in 2004 by the FDA as a toxic drug with irreversible long term side affects.


ETC ETC ETC ETC....


Amazing how all of sudden, Libtards as yourself Philo, now believe and take the word of the DOD as, gospel?



And you insistently profess to be a champion of the.. Truth.
philo

Trad climber
Is that light the end of the tunnel or a train?
May 15, 2014 - 12:12pm PT
The DOD also stated that daily intake of Marfloquine wasn't anything to worry about. I now suffer from several severe long term side affects from doing so over a 24 year period. It was totally banned in 2004 by the FDA as a toxic drug with irreversible long term side affects.

Suddenly the picture is much clearer.
The Chief

climber
Laughing at all the Sheep from atop the Hill
May 15, 2014 - 12:16pm PT
philo

Trad climber
Is that light the end of the tunnel or a train?

May 15, 2014 - 09:12am PT


Suddenly the picture is much clearer.

In your case, it was "clearer" a long ass time ago.


You are one angry and bitter old man that spews nothing but hate and distorted realities in the attempt to validate your ultra extreme liberal opinion.

You could give a ratsass about the truth.


Now, go have that daily tea with Brucee and DRF.
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
May 15, 2014 - 12:16pm PT

May 15, 2014 - 09:01am PT
You'll learn more about why people do and think what they think and do by studying economics than you will studying psychology.

Chaz...WTF are you smoking?

I don't know what he's smoking if anything, but I think he's at least sorta right here, as is Bruce in invoking good-'ol Kahneman, a psychologist by training but a "Nobel" winner in economics. (I use quotes because the "Nobel" in economics is essentially a fraud--it would be the same thing as if I started a prize in climbing and called it a "Nobel" prize. The real Mr. Nobel had nothing to with this economics prices.)

Everyone's favorite scientist on this thread, Dr. Ed, invokes behavioral economics in explaining why governments are unlikely to adopt effective policies in dealing with man-made climate change.
raymond phule

climber
May 15, 2014 - 12:18pm PT

You are one angry and bitter old man that spews nothing but hate and distorted realities in the attempt to validate your, opinion.

Haha, I guess that he has read his own posts.
philo

Trad climber
Is that light the end of the tunnel or a train?
May 15, 2014 - 12:19pm PT
You are one angry and bitter old man that spews nothing but hate and distorted realities in the attempt to validate your ultra extreme liberal opinion.


You are one ignorantly opinionated fool.
I hand you a load of sarcastic derision because you have earned it.
You are such a shet sucking Hypocrite. You whine about us doing exactly what you do.
The Chief

climber
Laughing at all the Sheep from atop the Hill
May 15, 2014 - 12:20pm PT
And... who are you Phoooooooooooooole?




Talk about a complete waste of time.




Nobody Phooooooooooole.




Hey Philo!





Quit hitting that meth pipe old man Philo.
zBrown

Ice climber
Brujo de la Playa
May 15, 2014 - 12:25pm PT
Say there Herr Braun.

Aside from Shirley Murphy, what do we call that dog, breed-wise.

For all those about to say it, I already know we do not call her "breed-wise".

It isn't a bad thought for the parents of some of those posting on this thread though. You know who you are.
philo

Trad climber
Is that light the end of the tunnel or a train?
May 15, 2014 - 12:25pm PT
Chuffie I don't drink and I don't smoke crack. And my climbing cred is secure. You?
Have you ever bothered to check out the climbing content I post or the supportive posts I put out? Of course not because climbing content and supportive posting is not your thing.
You are the one who only posts hate and shet. Old Man. LMAO.
raymond phule

climber
May 15, 2014 - 12:26pm PT
You are one angry and bitter old man that spews nothing but hate and distorted realities in the attempt to validate your, opinion.

I see that you edited your post so that it shouldn't be so obvious that you talked about yourself.
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