Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 6, 2015 - 08:08am PT
At some point there has to be 'big correlation' that show the warming in the real world, not on a graph, not a weather blip, ...


Perhaps you missed the fact that the Greenland ice is melting. That the Arctic is now almost ice-free in summers. Or that sea levels are rising, as predicted. How about the temps in Australia last year, or the measured rise in ocean temperatures.

I could go on with many more real-world examples of a warming planet.

So Dingus, what types of facts are you looking for? Would some sky writing help you understand?
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Jan 6, 2015 - 08:12am PT
I think he's waiting for a personal impact caused by climate change


Its a load of crap because (once again) some fervent soul is proposing unilateral action because of HIS conviction.
IMHO any post based on opinion instead of good science IS a load of crap.
That's about 99% of what gets posted on this thread by the non-scientists.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 6, 2015 - 08:17am PT
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 6, 2015 - 08:20am PT
OK, "ice-free" is an exaggeration.

40% less ice from the summer of 1997... Why is that The Chief?


EDIT: That is a transposition typo, it should read "1979".
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 6, 2015 - 08:30am PT
Dude, you are so brainwashed that you keep posting utter bullshet.


How about another quote from your wife The Chief. We could use another dose of your reality here.

LOL....



Oh, and sorry about the typo. I suppose that invalidates all the honest science...



Have a watch, this posted by a blog known as NASA:





But back on point. Why all the ice loss The Chief?
Dingus, want to comment?
EdwardT

Gym climber
Discontent
Jan 6, 2015 - 08:44am PT
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz

Topic Author's Reply - Jan 6, 2015 - 08:20am PT
OK, "ice-free" is an exaggeration.

40% less ice from the summer of 1997... Why is that The Chief?

The 2014 minimum was down 28% from the 1979 minimum.

Forty percent is also an exaggeration.

k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 6, 2015 - 08:48am PT
EdwardT:

You start your long post with a fairly nebulous observation:

You'd have a point if GCM inaccuracy was only about small fluctuations. It's about most of the IPCC models being wrong for most of this century.

It's a pretty bold statement to say most of the IPCC models are wrong, and it makes me wonder if the remainder of your post has any validity.

There's many IPCC models, "most" doesn't give me a good indication of which models are wrong and which are right. Can you give me an indication of the number of models that are wrong, and perhaps compare those to the models that are right?
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 6, 2015 - 08:51am PT
The 2014 minimum was down 28% from the 1979 minimum.


EdwardT, 28% decline is extremely concerning. Can you help me understand why there has been so much ice loss?
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Jan 6, 2015 - 09:04am PT
I think he's waiting for a personal impact caused by climate change

He, him, that guy. He's the problem. Him. Typcial American, FAK!

I'm not waiting for anything.


Its a load of crap because (once again) some fervent soul is proposing unilateral action because of HIS conviction.
IMHO any post based on opinion instead of good science IS a load of crap.
That's about 99% of what gets posted on this thread by the non-scientists.

Yep.

DMT
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Jan 6, 2015 - 09:06am PT
Sure k-man, I watched the video.

What sort of commentary do you seek? My opinion or what? What is it you want from me, man?

DMT
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 6, 2015 - 09:07am PT
Dingus, any comment on my real-world examples of a warming planet? I used reputable sources to show things like ice-cap melting. What's your take there?
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Jan 6, 2015 - 09:08am PT
Would some sky writing help you understand?

Clever.

I think the Standard Model of personal insult is the way to win over hearts and minds.

Carry on.

DMT
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 6, 2015 - 09:14am PT
Show us the beef. Make a prediction using the models, and then show the prediction coming true. Has validation taken a hiatus too?

what makes a validation, quantitatively?

please post your criteria... if you are going to demand validation, you should have a definition of validation.
EdwardT

Gym climber
Discontent
Jan 6, 2015 - 09:17am PT
You start your long post with a fairly nebulous observation:

You'd have a point if GCM inaccuracy was only about small fluctuations. It's about most of the IPCC models being wrong for most of this century.

It's a pretty bold statement to say most of the IPCC models are wrong, and it makes me wonder if the remainder of your post has any validity.

There's many IPCC models, "most" doesn't give me a good indication of which models are wrong and which are right. Can you give me an indication of the number of models that are wrong, and perhaps compare those to the models that are right?

Here's an illustration of my point.



Just eyeballing it, there seems to be a growing divergence between nearly all of the models and the observed temps.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Jan 6, 2015 - 09:22am PT
k-man, the northern ice cap seems to be melting, at present. Australia is baking but they fudged the temp readings so the 'trend' isn't trustworthy. Sorry, but that's what happens when hysterical spokespeople overstate someone else's case.

Sea level and temps going up? That's not something people can sink their teeth into. Like attributing the decimation of the over-fished Atlantic cod to rising ocean temps - difficult to grasp. Species migrating north and south, respectively? Wholesale migration would be very difficult to ignore, for sure.

But my opinion of these examples is irrelevant. Not sure why you are asking me, at all. What difference will it make, how I answer?

If I toed the spokespeople line I bet the personal insults would cease... and that is about it as far as the impact of my opinion goes.





Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Jan 6, 2015 - 09:35am PT
Hey I like the italic quote thing, Ed!

what makes a validation, quantitatively?

please post your criteria... if you are going to demand validation, you should have a definition of validation.


I recommend you de-personalize this topic. If it suits you though, think of me as the great unwashed; worldwide. I need in my face proof, utterly unequivocal. I am not in climate research nor advocacy, nor will I become so in the future. I'm just a guy, trying to make a living.

I'm not insulting you nor any one else. I'm not 'demanding' anything, of you personally nor of the body politic of the science of climate change. I don't need to.

You see, I don't have an argument to win. I don't have a position to advocate. I'm not trying to influence you or anyone else, in terms of climate change amelioration.

I'm just a guy trying to make a living.

DMT
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jan 6, 2015 - 09:39am PT
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Jan 6, 2015 - 09:50am PT
You called me some sort of liar, without substantiation.

Nope. I called you a liar because you lied. It was substantiated with one post and one sentence.

DMT
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Jan 6, 2015 - 09:55am PT
Several things:

1) Don't interpret the wiggles, they are mostly not distinguishable from noise.

2) Partisan divisions on this issue are very wide (widest of almost any issue) and stable over the past 4 years.

3) The percentages show agreement with a statement that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. All major scientists' organizations, most national academies, and the vast majority (high 90s, it seems) of scientists studying this topic would agree with that. So as you move up the scale in that graph, you're looking at groups getting closer to agreement with scientists.

4) Even among the highest group in that graph (Democrats), agreement with the statement is much lower than it is among scientists.

All this stuff baffles many scientists, who don't see how they could possibly be more clear. They're fascinated and ask a lot of questions, though, when they see that graph.


Thanks for the considered reply, Chiloe.

My impression is this: whether you're talking the 80th percentile or the 20th, these are the people who decide things along partisan lines, first. They then seek validation of the party line. We see this played out here on a daily basis. It would be great if folks stopped doing that but to pretend its only one side of this issue doing it is ludicrous.

DMT
Chiloe

Trad climber
Lee, NH
Jan 6, 2015 - 10:10am PT
My impression is this: whether you're talking the 80th percentile or the 20th, these are the people who decide things along partisan lines, first. They then seek validation of the party line.

There are a couple of versions of that in the literature, the top-down one is called elite cues meaning people figure out what their leaders' position is (including their favorite news channel or blogger) and then follow that.

The bottom-up version is called cultural cognition, people sort of yam what they yam, and see everything according to that light.

Personally I'm sure they're both partly right.

It would be great if folks stopped doing that but to pretend its only one side of this issue doing it is ludicrous.

But here's where I disagree, it's not all in the mind. There's a real world of water, ice and rock out there, and ecosystems that keep us alive, all nonhuman entities we can't bargain with and don't control through our ideological fantasies.

Also, there's something new under the sun, a culture of scientists around the world who are trying to figure this stuff out. It might be true that people in the general public are lining up with their parties as you say, but at the same time (for reasons deeper than coincidence, I think) they're also lining up with or against the science, hence with or against the best information we have about that non-socially constructed reality.
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