Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 8, 2015 - 11:14am PT
Three inches, or better next weds and thurs. Sounds as foul as your mouth Frosty. I see nearly the same is forecast for areas near the village Squeamish. Hope you enjoy it. I'm scheduled to be in NV, so will unfortunately miss all that expertly forecast precip (epic powder).
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 8, 2015 - 12:33pm PT
Reilly, I totally agree that full stops waste tons on energy every day. That's why I play the California Roll whenever reasonable.

But cop departments need revenue, ya know.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Jan 8, 2015 - 12:36pm PT
Some of the climate modeling / analysis techniques should be applied to real time traffic monitoring, prediction and control.

I'd be impressed with a traffic modeling package that actually worked to improve through put in a large city like L.A.....

DMT
rick sumner

Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
Jan 8, 2015 - 01:32pm PT
My oh my Frosty, you're going all squishy and backing up fast from your earlier spew. Your expert graph shows 24 hr precip totalling 70-90 mm along the coast and inland for a 24 hr period starting next weds. You claimed we would be washed away with your original inrerpretation. Tell you what Frosty, I'll take that bet but cut it in half for my locale to 1.5 inches water equivalent. And you can even keep my bottle in the event of your loss if you promise to drain it in a single session. Least I can do, to aid you along on your highway to hell where you'll meet your compatriot ISIS brethern doing each other in the abscense of the promised virgins.
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Jan 8, 2015 - 01:41pm PT
Which fossil fuel reserves must stay in the ground to avoid dangerous climate change?
The greater global attention to climate policy also means that fossil fuel companies are becoming increasingly risky for investors in terms of the delivery of long-term returns. I would expect prudent investors in energy to shift increasingly towards low-carbon energy sources.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/01/150107131401.htm
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Jan 8, 2015 - 02:15pm PT
An honest man?



Lol!


You gotta admire self-deprecating humor.

Gotta.

DMT
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Jan 8, 2015 - 03:01pm PT
Well ,The Chief it looks as though you are right,you and I are paying the highest prices for gasoline in the country.
http://www.gasbuddy.com/gb_gastemperaturemap.aspx

My point being, trusting the FF corporations dictating what we all pay ,or,moving forward with renewables .

The all of the above idea of alternative energy will only decrease demand of all FF's,benefiting everyone.

And ,I like your idea of solar panels on everyone's roof,not only would that create a huge kick in the world's economy ,but,individuals like us as well.

The largest solar panel factory in the U.S.A. is being built as we speak in Buffalo.That will be a manufacturing kick for them.


We lost some great jobs here in Honeoye Falls 3 years ago when the GM fuel cell facility shut down due to the DOE pulling the plug on it.

Those were not broom pushing jobs there.It hurt the local economy.

Now,Toyota will have a fuel cell vehicle on the road this year.

We all lose on this one.


Carbon Taxation will open more doors than it closes.
Dingus Milktoast

Gym climber
Maestro, Ecosystem Ministry, Fatcrackistan
Jan 8, 2015 - 05:06pm PT
NY and CA pay the highest prices because we tax our fuel more than other states, already.

We just added about 10 cents more, to be siphoned off to pay for a bullet train to no-where.

This is the great political leadership some of these folks like to talk about.

DMT
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 8, 2015 - 08:59pm PT
IPCC WG1 AR5 Technical Summary page TS-58 & 59

TFE.7: Carbon Cycle Perturbation and Uncertainties

The natural carbon cycle has been perturbed since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (circa 1750) by the anthropogenic release of CO₂ to the atmosphere, virtually all from fossil fuel combustion and land use change, with a small contribution from cement production. Fossil fuel burning is a process related to energy production. Fossil fuel carbon comes from geological deposits of coal, oil and gas that were buried in the Earth crust for millions of years. Land use change CO₂ emissions are related to the conversion of natural ecosystems into managed ecosystems for food, feed and timber production with CO₂ being emitted from the burning of plant material or from the decomposition of dead plants and soil organic carbon. For instance when a forest is cleared, the plant material may be released to the atmosphere quickly through burning or over many years as the dead biomass and soil carbon decay on their own. {6.1, 6.3; Table 6.1}

The human caused excess of CO₂ in the atmosphere is partly removed from the atmosphere by carbon sinks in land ecosystems and in the ocean, currently leaving about 45% of the CO₂ emissions in the atmosphere. Natural carbon sinks are due to physical, biological and chemical processes acting on different time scales. An excess of atmospheric CO₂ supports photosynthetic CO₂ fixation by plants that is stored as plant biomass or in the soil. The residence times of stored carbon on land depends on the compartments (plant / soil) and composition of the organic carbon, with time horizons varying from days to centuries. The increased storage in terrestrial ecosystems not affected by land use change is likely to be caused by enhanced photosynthesis at higher CO₂ levels and N deposition, and changes in climate favoring carbon sinks such as longer growing seasons in mid-to-high latitudes. {6.3, 6.3.1}

The uptake of anthropogenic CO₂ by the ocean is primarily a response to increasing CO₂ in the atmosphere. Excess atmospheric CO₂ absorbed by the surface ocean or transported to the ocean through aquatic systems (e.g., rivers, ground waters) gets buried in coastal sediments or transported to deep waters where it is stored for decades to centuries. The deep ocean carbon can dissolve ocean carbonate sediments to store excess CO₂ on time scales of centuries to millennia. Within a thousand years, the remaining atmospheric fraction of the CO₂ emissions will be between 15 and 40%, depending on the amount of carbon released (TFE.7, Figure 1). On geological time scales of 10,000 years or longer, additional CO₂ is removed very slowly from the atmosphere by rock weathering, pulling the remaining atmospheric CO₂ fraction down to 10 to 25% after 10,000 years. {Box 6.1}

Credit: IPCC WG1 AR5 Technical Summary

TFE.7, Figure 1:
Percentage of initial atmospheric CO₂ perturbation remaining in the atmosphere in response to an idealized instantaneous CO₂ emission pulse in year 0 as calculated by a range of coupled climate-carbon cycle models. Multi-model mean (blue line) and the uncertainty interval (±2 standard deviations, shading) simulated during 100 years (left panel) and 1,000 years (right panel) following the instantaneous emission pulse of 100 PgC. (adapted from Box 6.1, Figure 1). {Box 6.1}

The carbon cycle response to future climate and CO₂ changes can be viewed as two strong and opposing feedbacks. The concentration-carbon feedback determines changes in storage due to elevated CO₂, and the climate-carbon feedback determines changes in carbon storage due to changes in climate. There is high confidence that increased atmospheric CO₂ will lead to increased land and ocean carbon uptake but by an uncertain amount. Models agree on the positive sign of land and ocean response to rising CO₂ but show only medium and low agreement for the magnitude of ocean and land carbon uptake respectively (TFE.7, Figure 2). Future climate change will decrease land and ocean carbon uptake compared to the case with constant climate (medium confidence). This is further supported by paleoclimate observations and modelling indicating that there is a positive feedback between climate and the carbon cycle on century to millennial time scales. Models agree on the sign, globally negative, of land and ocean response to climate change but show low agreement on the magnitude of this response, especially for the land (TFE.7, Figure 2). A key update since AR4 is the introduction of nutrient dynamics in some land carbon models, in particular the limitations on plant growth imposed by nitrogen availability. There is high confidence that, at the global scale, relative to CMIP5 carbon only ESMs, CMIP5 ESMs including a land nitrogen cycle will reduce the strength of both the concentration-carbon feedback and the climate-carbon feedback of land ecosystems (TFE.7, Figure 2). Inclusion of N-cycle processes increases the spread across the CMIP5 ensemble. The CMIP5 spread in ocean sensitivity to CO₂ and climate appears reduced compared to AR4 (TFE.7, Figure 2). {6.2.3, 6.4.2}

Credit: IPCC WG1 AR5 Technical Summary

TFE.7, Figure 2:
Comparison of carbon cycle feedback metrics between the ensemble of 7 GCMs and 4 EMICs at the time of AR4 (C⁴MIP) under the SRES-A2 scenario and the 8 CMIP5 models under the 140-year 1% CO₂ increase per year scenario. Black dots represent a single model simulation and coloured bars the mean of the multi-model results, grey dots are used for models with a coupled terrestrial nitrogen cycle. The comparison with C⁴MIP models is for context, but these metrics are known to be variable across different scenarios and rates of change (see Section 6.4.2.2). The SRES A2 scenario is closer in rate of change to a 0.5% CO₂ increase per year scenario and as such it should be expected that the CMIP5 climate-carbon sensitivity terms are comparable, but the concentration-carbon sensitivity terms are likely to be around 20% smaller for CMIP5 than for C⁴MIP due to lags in the ability of the land and ocean to respond to higher rates of CO₂ increase. This dependence on scenario reduces confidence in any quantitative statements of how CMIP5 carbon cycle feedbacks differ from C⁴MIP. {6.4.2}

With very high confidence, ocean carbon uptake of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions will continue under all four Representative Concentration Pathways through to 2100, with higher uptake corresponding to higher concentration pathways. The future evolution of the land carbon uptake is much more uncertain, with a majority of models projecting a continued net carbon uptake under all RCPs, but with some models simulating a net loss of carbon by the land due to the combined effect of climate change and land use change. In view of the large spread of model results and incomplete process representation, there is low confidence on the magnitude of modelled future land carbon changes. [6.4.3, Figure 6.24] Biogeochemical cycles and feedbacks other than the carbon cycle play an important role in the future of the climate system, although the carbon cycle represents the strongest of these. Changes in the nitrogen cycle, in addition to interactions with CO₂ sources and sinks, affect emissions of N₂O both on land and from the ocean. The human-caused creation of reactive nitrogen has increased steadily over the last two decades and is dominated by the production of ammonia for fertilizer and industry, with important contributions from legume cultivation and combustion of fossil fuels. {6.3}

Many processes, however, are not yet represented in coupled climate-biogeochemistry models (e.g., other processes involving other biogenic elements such as P, Si, Fe) so their magnitudes have to be estimated in offline or simpler models, which make their quantitative assessment difficult. It is likely that there will be non-linear interactions between many of these processes, but these are not yet well quantified. Therefore any assessment of the future feedbacks between climate and biogeochemical cycles still contains large uncertainty. {6.4}
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Jan 9, 2015 - 12:07am PT
Chief,
seriously,
you might consider these resources:

http://ocw.mit.edu/index.htm

https://www.cerrocoso.edu/escc/bishop
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jan 9, 2015 - 07:49am PT
Skeptic Richard Muller confirms climate consensus.

http://climatecrocks.com/2015/01/09/richard-muller-i-was-wrong-on-global-warming/

Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Jan 9, 2015 - 08:13am PT

http://berkeleyearth.org/summary-of-findings
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 9, 2015 - 08:51am PT
Dingus Milktoast wrote:

There is a sales job to be done here. Thus far that sales job has not been well executed. I'd imagine the last thing scientists want to be doing is a sales pitch, but when you want someone's money you've got to sell.

Dr. Muller knows.
dave729

Trad climber
Western America
Jan 9, 2015 - 09:42am PT
Actually disgusting how people like Bruce K would
allow themselves to be radicallized into a climate terrorist.

Demanding a daily carbon ransom be extorted from all us normal folks
just to carry on using energy in our lives.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 9, 2015 - 10:20am PT
Don J. Easterling

Curriculum Vitae

SUMMARY AND HIGHLIGHTS

Publications
10 books, ~150 journal publications
Presented 31 research papers at international meetings in 13 countries outside the US

Current Research Activities

Cause of global climate changes, global warming and cooling
Cause of abrupt global climate changes at the end of the last Ice Age.
Relationship of 25-30 year glacial, and ocean warming and cooling cycles to solar variation and global warming and cooling
Relationship of atmospheric cosmogenic isotope (10Be, 14C) production rates to global climate change
14C, and cosmogenic 10Be isotope dating of glacial deposits in the Puget Lowland, Cascade Range, Sawtooth Range, New Zealand Alps, Argentine Andes, and Columbia Plateau
Correlation of Quaternary interhemispheric climate changes
Measurement of radiocarbon marine reservoir values
Holocene glaciation of the Cascade Range
Holocene climate changes—The Little Ice Age
Tephra and lahar chronology of Mt. Baker
Interpretation of LIDAR imagery of glacial topography in western Washington
Use of shorelines to determine isostatic uplift rates in the Puget Lowland
Cause of debris torrents

Offices in Professional Societies

International

Director of field excursions for the 2003 International Quaternary Congress.
Associate Editor, GEOMORPHOLOGY (International Journal)
U.S. representative to UNESCO International Geological Correlation Project, Glaciations in the Northern Hemisphere
Member of International Geological Correlation Project, UNESCO
Member of International Quaternary Association
Member, Commission on Quaternary Stratigraphy of North America
Founding member of American Quaternary Association

National

Associate Editor, Geological Society of America Bulletin .
Received national award for "Distinguished service to the Quaternary Geology and
Elected national chairman of Quaternary Geology and Geomorphology Division, Geological Society of America
Elected national 1st-vice-chairman of Quaternary Geology and Geomorphology Division, Geological Society of America
Elected national 2nd-vice-chairman of Quaternary Geology and Geomorphology
Division, Geological Society of America
Elected national secretary of the Quaternary Geology and Geomorphology Division, Geological Society of America, 6 times (12 years)
Chairman of the Geological Society of America national meeting in Seattle
National Chairman of the Quaternary Geology and Geomorphology Panel to select the Kirk Bryan Award for the best paper in geomorphology
Member of national Quaternary Geology and Geomorphology Division Management Board
Member of national Geological Society of American Committee on Grants and Awards
National council member, American Quaternary Research Association.

Membership in Professional Organizations

Geological Society of America (Fellow)
Quaternary Geology and Geomorphology Division (past president)
American Geophysical Union
International Quaternary Assoc.
American Quaternary Assoc.

Research Grants and Awards

8 NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION Research Grants
3 Department of Interior Research Grants
U.S. Geological Survey Research Grant
Council on Governments Research Grant

Papers Presented at International Meetings

International Geological Congress, Oslo, Norway
International Quaternary Assoc. Congress, Reno, Nevada
Geological Society of America, Vancouver, B.C.
Geological Society of America, Toronto, Ont.
International Quaternary Assoc. Congress, Ottawa, Ontario
Geological Society of America, Vancouver, B.C.
Geological Society of America, Toronto, Ont.
International Quaternary Assoc. Congress, Ottawa, Ontario
International Geological Correlation Program (UNESCO), Paris, France
International Quaternary Assoc. Congress, Moscow, USSR
International Quaternary Assoc. Congress Field Conference, Leningrad, USSR
International Geological Correlation Program (UNESCO), Kyoto, Japan
International Geological Correlation Program (UNESCO), Kiel, West Germany
International Geological Correlation Program (UNESCO), Ostrava, Czechoslovakia
International Quaternary Association Commission, Zurich, Switzerland
International Quaternary Congress, Birmington, England
International Quaternary Association Commission, Reykjavik, Iceland
International Geological Correlation Program (UNESCO), Prague, Czechoslovakia
International Geological Correlation Program (UNESCO), Stuttgart, Germany
International Quaternary Association Commission, Stockholm, Sweden
International Geological Correlation Program (UNESCO), Prague, Czechoslovakia
International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, Grenoble, France
International Geological Correlation Program (UNESCO), Prague, Czechoslovakia
International Geological Correlation Program (UNESCO), Salzburg, Austria
International Quaternary Congress, Christchurch, New Zealand
International Geological Correlation Program (UNESCO), Koln, Germany
International Geological Congress, Montreal, Canada
International Quaternary Congress, Paris, France
Geological Society of America, Mexico City, Mexico
International Geological Congress, Prague, Czechoslovakia
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Jan 9, 2015 - 11:06am PT
Based on the research, he said, it is possible to extrapolate that, “at current rates, within four decades there will be very little to no outdoor natural skating in Canada with the exception of Winnipeg.”
http://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey/2012/03/05/death_of_backyard_rinks_linked_to_climate_change.html
Global warming has the potential to negatively affect one of Canada's primary sources of winter recreation: hockey and ice skating on outdoor rinks. Observed changes in winter temperatures in Canada suggest changes in the meteorological conditions required to support the creation and maintenance of outdoor skating rinks; while there have been observed increases in the ice-free period of several natural water bodies, there has been no study of potential trends in the duration of the season supporting the construction of outdoor skating rinks. Here we show that the outdoor skating season (OSS) in Canada has significantly shortened in many regions of the country as a result of changing climate conditions. We first established a meteorological criterion for the beginning, and a proxy for the length of the OSS. We extracted this information from daily maximum temperature observations from 1951 to 2005, and tested it for significant changes over time due to global warming as well as due to changes in patterns of large-scale natural climate variability. We found that many locations have seen a statistically significant decrease in the OSS length, particularly in Southwest and Central Canada. This suggests that future global warming has the potential to significantly compromise the viability of outdoor skating in Canada.
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/1/014028/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/why-backyard-hockey-rinks-remain-a-rich-winter-tradition-in-canada/article22282662/

http://artsandscience.concordia.ca/research/featuredresearchers/drdamonmatthews/

http://www.cbc.ca/strombo/news/the-rink-diary-how-your-backyard-ice-rink-could-help-climate-change-researc


EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 9, 2015 - 11:56am PT
Bruce Kay - I'm not sure what you're talking about. You seem to be all over the place.

Can I say the same thing about Roy Spencer et al? What "same thing" are you talking about? I just listed Easterling's CV, which I found online.


EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 9, 2015 - 12:14pm PT
I mean list their CV's. Its all very impressive if thats all that impresses you.

That's all that impresses me?

I posted Easterling's CV to show he's more than a "raving nut christian ends timer". He's fairly accomplished in his field. I know it's not climate science. But he is/was a scientist. Are geologists considered scientists? I'm not sure.

However the only people who can rate them are their peers which dosn't include you or me.

Yet, you're offering he's a "raving nut christian ends timer"

Why all the fuss about consensus?

Fuss? Consensus? What are you referring to?

That is how we rate the science veracity, if we trust the institution.

If you can prove it is untrustable then please do so right now

and who is this Easterling guy who flew in here out of left field?????

Like I said before, you seem to be all over the place.

I'm not sure how to respond to accusations about things I haven't addressed.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Jan 9, 2015 - 12:45pm PT
Bruce Kay - You're all about trying to pick a fight. I'm not interested.

If you want to discuss something specific, I might play ball. Maybe.

Pressing me to defend people or issues I haven't mentioned. No thanks.

Edit: Sorry about the Easterling / Easterbrook mistake. I meant Don Easterbrook.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Jan 9, 2015 - 05:02pm PT
2014 state temp ranking for the past 120 years.

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