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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Ed puts up with a lot, don't know how he does it. After a straightforward and cleanly explained re-analysis/critique of a paper mentioned on this thread he gets this crap from someone who cannot understand a word of it.
Nice analysis Eddy.
Unfortunately your still stuck on stupid by using fudged data and erroneous assumptions.
The term Dunning-Kruger comes up frequently, very frequently, on this thread for good reason. Interesting/accessible article here by David Dunning, the Cornell psychologist who gave his name to this syndrome. It's not particularly about climate change much less Supertopo, but the less DK folks here will see the connection.
In 1999, in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, my then graduate student Justin Kruger and I published a paper that documented how, in many areas of life, incompetent people do not recognize—scratch that, cannot recognize—just how incompetent they are, a phenomenon that has come to be known as the Dunning-Kruger effect. Logic itself almost demands this lack of self-insight: For poor performers to recognize their ineptitude would require them to possess the very expertise they lack. To know how skilled or unskilled you are at using the rules of grammar, for instance, you must have a good working knowledge of those rules, an impossibility among the incompetent. Poor performers—and we are all poor performers at some things—fail to see the flaws in their thinking or the answers they lack.
What’s curious is that, in many cases, incompetence does not leave people disoriented, perplexed, or cautious. Instead, the incompetent are often blessed with an inappropriate confidence, buoyed by something that feels to them like knowledge.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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dave729 obviously can't see this plot:
which shows the majority of the climate change is due to the human emission of green house gases and aerosols...
I wonder if he can't see the color red...
if we add all that up, we get what we see:
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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DK in action. In the first sentence sci-fi confidently pretends he knows what Ed knows.
Ed, if your graph was correct then the debate would of course be over, but you of all people know that it is not. In the second sentence sci-fi reveals he can't read Ed's analysis and has no clue what it was.
May I ask what climate sensitivity you have used?
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sci-fi
climber
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Ed, you are of course also aware that your graph does not show the most recent temperature data. That trick is called misrepresentation.
I hope that you are not doing science for a living!
Everyone knows that the models cannot reproduce the real world observations:
http://www.stat.washington.edu/peter/statclim/fyfeetal.pdf
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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scifi
you apparently cannot read, the "model" I use a linear combination of observations.
I do science for a living, and if you'd like to provide a data set for global mean surface temperature from 1900 to the present please point to the URL
also, if you'd like to suggest some other data sets for any of the other time series I've used please point to them.
As far as your abilities in picking papers, you haven't responded to my post based on reading one of the papers you suggested. That exercise revealed that you either don't read the papers you are recommending, or if you do, it is a rather superficial reading devoid of any real comprehension.
response to Harde paper:
http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=970221&msg=2509499#msg2509499
http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=970221&msg=2509566#msg2509566
in summary, Harde's model vs. data:
it is hard for me to accuse you of misrepresenting something you probably didn't understand in the first place.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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The DK is strong with this one!
Ed, you are of course also aware that your graph does not show the most recent temperature data. That trick is called misrepresentation.
sci-fi, instead of making pompous pronouncements about things you don't understand, can you think for a minute? What other variables besides temperature are required for Ed's model? What are the most recent values published for all of these?
Everyone knows that the models cannot reproduce the real world observations:
Again, instead of pompous declarations, look at what Ed actually did. Does it reproduce the real world reasonably well? What is the relationship between Ed's analysis and the ones described in that NCC paper you linked?
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Mark Force
Trad climber
Cave Creek, AZ
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My wife says the exercise of stupidity should be excruciatingly painful so there would be less of it. That certainly would be helpful here.
I don't know how you do it, Ed. Your patience is remarkable.
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Bob D'A
Trad climber
Taos, NM
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Ed...don't respond. He has put the bar so low. He feeds on you responding.
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sci-fi
climber
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If Ed's "model" was indeed supported by observations, it would not appear on a discussion forum for climbers but rather in Science Magazine.
Btw. he claims that he has "observed" and can disentangle even the slightest variations in the contributions from five different parameters.
It's called tuning a model and it's not real science...
In reality, this is how the models perform:
http://www.stat.washington.edu/peter/statclim/fyfeetal.pdf
So, I'll try this one more time:
Ed, please let us know how the calculated climate sensitivity of your model compares with the new estimate of 1.8C from Skeie et al. (2014).
Oh, and how about using the Hadcrut4 global mean data and show us how your model compares from 1980 to 2014?
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sci-fi
climber
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Btw., for those of you who don't know this, the IPCC models use a climate sensitivity of 3.2C.
The difference between 3.2 and 1.8C is whether or not there will be a climate catastrophe.
This is the emerging concensus:
I hope that the above table will make the ecomaniacs sleep better at night. The end of humanity can be post-proned until you come up with something better.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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So, I'll try this one more time:
You haven't tried anything except posing, sf. Try to read and understand Ed's post. Or stop posing and admit that you can't. What *are* those equations he wrote?
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sci-fi
climber
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It does not matter what equations Ed has used to wiggle his model. Tuning is a pointless exercise because you can make anything fit.
The reality is that a forward model can never match the temperature of the past two decades, as long as CO2 is assumed to be the main climate-driver!
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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It does not matter what equations Ed has used to wiggle his model.
You can't read them and have no idea what they mean, yet you write over and over in condescending tones that they are wrong. You are textbook DK.
Tuning is a pointless exercise because you can make anything fit.
You just admitted you have no idea what the model is, yet you're still making silly declarations about it. That word "tuning," what do you think it means in connection with Ed's model?
The reality is that a forward model can never match the temperature of the past two decades, as long as CO2 is assumed to be the main climate-driver!
A number of different models are matching recent temperatures pretty well now. But who fed you that "CO2 is assumed" talking point? That's not how they work.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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If Ed's "model" was indeed supported by observations, it would not appear on a discussion forum for climbers but rather in Science Magazine.
you really have reading comprehension problems, scifi, the analysis I worked through did appear in the literature, as I cited at the beginning of my post above:
I worked through the paper Chylek et al. (2014), “The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate,” Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1689–1697, doi:10.1002/2014GL059274 because it provides a way of looking at the features of the 20th and 21st century mean global surface temperature and provides some hints at what components contribute.
you might attempt to read better, and with comprehension, it would even help you understand those blogs you seem to be hanging out in...
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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scifi
here's what appeared in the AR5 WG1 report
why do you think the atmosphere is in equilibrium? in fact, maybe you should explain what "equilibrium" means... with regard to climate.
---
as for fitting, seems Harde didn't even succeed in getting that right, yet you seem to like that paper... of course, you didn't work it through, why not?
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sci-fi
climber
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Nice one Ed. Posting TCR instead of ECS that we were discussing.
You keep coming up with creative disguises to hide the fact that the models are plain wrong.
Try and explain this one away:
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Mark Force
Trad climber
Cave Creek, AZ
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Only a brave person is willing to honestly admit, and
fearlessly face, what a sincere and logical mind discovers.
-Rodan of Alexandria
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