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dirtbag
climber
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Jan 20, 2014 - 05:20pm PT
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^^^^^^^^^^^^
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BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
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Jan 20, 2014 - 05:21pm PT
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Farmers are the biggest jack-offs in the country. Most of them are right wing nutjobs who got that way by listening to Limbaugh every day while they drive their air conditioned tractors.
They are a very rare group. They are the only business that receives direct payments from the federal government for either crop subsidies or to let their land lie fallow in order to preserve the soil. AKA: CRP, or conservation reserve program.
Think about it. This isn't some sort of corporate welfare tax break. These guys get actual checks from the Treasury.
A buddy of mine bought 320 acres for deer hunting in northern Oklahoma. Most of it was timber, but there was a part of it that he leased to a farmer to farm wheat.
He said that he gets checks every year, and he doesn't fill out any forms or anything.
So farmers talk out of both sides of their ass.
CRP is the worst. That is where the Treasury pays you for NOT farming land. Supposedly it is in place to protect wetlands or areas prone to soil erosion, but I have seen perfect land enrolled in CRP. It is a lot of money, too.
Farmers are the absolute worst. Ethically worse than a welfare queen on food stamps.
I recall having lunch with a bunch of Mr. BIG type oil zillionaires once. They were all serious Republican conservatives. One bragged that he had bought a huge farm in western Kansas, and he boasted that the CRP payments almost made the loan payments. So he basically got it for free.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservation_Reserve_Program
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BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
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Jan 20, 2014 - 05:26pm PT
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Chiloe,
Your comments about cherry picking data needs to be driven home by all participants in this thread. Data is data, and truth is truth. Data should not be skewed by any human factor.
Of course we see it in every other post on this thread. It is an awful sign of ignorance.
It would all go away if everyone just read this book:
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 20, 2014 - 05:52pm PT
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Your comments about cherry picking data needs to be driven home by all participants in this thread. There's a tragicomic corollary to this, often seen on this thread: people who don't seriously work with data themselves imagine the whole point is to analyze it in some way that shows the answer they want to see. So they cherry pick whatever it takes, and wrongly assume that real scientists must be doing the same thing.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 20, 2014 - 06:04pm PT
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I've tried a few times, no success (we're stuck with clueless drive-bys), to start a conversation here about peer review -- a topic that quite interests me. I won't try again now but wanted to mention that Stoat, a blogger who once worked for the British Antarctic Survey (and is incidentally also a rock climber), has a clever post about peer review today.
Stoat is a livelier writer than I am but I agree with most of his (sometimes acerbic) points about peer review. Here's a quote, though, that applies to things we've seen here:
"If one side ends up controlling peer review, and if that side is pushing for a 'cause' that has nothing to do with the science, peer review is worse than worthless."
Again, this is what it looks like from the denial-o-sphere: they are all so distant from the real science, that all the scientists look to them to be clustered together. But in reality there is vibrant discourse – well, sometimes. The comment is ill-posed, because the stuff about “sides” doesn’t really work. And there are so so few decent test-cases. I can’t think of a single paper that the “skeptics” can put forward that should have been published, that wasn’t. I suppose they’d retreat to “but the system is so biased against us we don’t even try” sort of paranoia. But that’s just paranoia.
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BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
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Jan 20, 2014 - 06:04pm PT
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Ron, I've been dealing with farmers for my whole life. One side of my family had a huge dairy with prime bottom land. I grew up on a pecan orchard and worked pecans during my entire youth.
They always have their hand out when you are drilling a well. I've never met a farmer who looks at CRP for what it is: A government handout.
One of our Senators is Tom Coburn. He is way more conservative than I am, but he is very consistent. He won't vote for something unless there is a way to pay for it, even if it means alienating the local agri-businesses.
He has been trying to rid us of the CRP and crop subsidies, but it won't get anywhere.
Seriously. Who here gets paid to do nothing? Even The Chief put in his years for his retirement. Farmers are the only group I know of who gets actual checks for doing nothing. Why should we pay them to conserve their soil? Nobody pays me for not drilling wells. Nobody pays you for not doing your work, either. Farming is a scam. Let them sink or swim like the rest of us.
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BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
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Jan 20, 2014 - 06:08pm PT
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There's a tragicomic corollary to this, often seen on this thread: people who don't seriously work with data themselves imagine the whole point is to analyze it in some way that shows the answer they want to see. So they cherry pick whatever it takes, and wrongly assume real that scientists must be doing the same thing.
I couldn't say it any better.
I hear people say, "The temperature isn't warming, we had a hell of a winter here." Confusing weather and climate.
I also hear, "It's warming, but it is natural and not caused by human activities."
Just scroll through the posts. This thread is filled to the rim with this baloney.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 20, 2014 - 06:12pm PT
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The Ocean Heat Content time series I posted upthread look a bit noisy when graphed. Lowess smoothing shows the trend, but that's kind of hard to explain so it might seem like the devil's work. Here's a simpler way to see the pattern: annual average OHC for 1955 through 2013. Hard to miss the trend here.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Jan 20, 2014 - 06:42pm PT
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Farmers are nothing but welfare recipients around my neck of the woods.
Let's see ,buy Birds Eye veggies ,subsidized by us,for a higher price than our local farm markets,and make sure you get every chem available in your diet,or buy organic,which has not been subsidized ,and buy from someone you know.
Real decision there,I will tell you.
Keep up the good work ,Chiloe.And ,BASE,you are absolutely correct!
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jan 20, 2014 - 09:52pm PT
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^^^^^ Yawn.
The Chief, you are so tiring.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 20, 2014 - 11:57pm PT
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Well Mutt, there are independent scientists working on alternative hypothesis's of natural cycles of global warming and cooling where CO2 is not the end all driver and control knob. I think Trenberth has signalled the legitamacy of this effort. However, he needs to get over looking for the missing heat under every rock on the abyssal plain. How does he imagine it got there anyway? Surely it can't all be driven bottom ward by tradewinds in a few small geographically isolated regions. The lack of warming at the sea surface and immediately above in the lowest troposphere seems to preclude it coming from wide regions of the globe since downwelling IR from CO2 only penetrates a few millimeters and where is the data indicating a warming in the near surface temps over the length of the pause- i mean if this was happening there would be no pause. And i'm not talking Cowtan and Way or the highly peculiar reconstructed graphs. So i think two of the many ways of explaining the pause can be thrown out.
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TLP
climber
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Jan 21, 2014 - 11:30am PT
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As for the cherry-picking of data and incorrectly making inferences based upon short-term (10-15 year) trends, I was curious whether The Chief would see the inconsistency between his making a big deal of the air/surface temperature trend of the last 13 years and the fact that similar such trends, well within the long-term range of variation around the overall trend, could be pointed out right in the middle of his putatively dramatic warming in the early 20th century. I know, others have tried to make this same point before, and no, it appears that he did not get the point that this is just not a valid way to be looking at the data that we have. Oh, well. Voltaire had something very apt to say about that.
But back to actual substance, seeing Chiloe's graphs of ocean heat content, I have to say again that the whole subject of how heat transfers between water and air, and how circulation occurs and oscillates within and among the oceans is a really really interesting subject. We know about some notable correlations, which get tighter all the time as the modeling and data collection is improved, but how the oceans and interface function still has a ways to go. There are probably some really good papers on it somewhere, but not my subject so I'm not aware of them.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 21, 2014 - 11:39am PT
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While walking my dog in the cold snowy forest this morning, there came to me a vision (this often happens) of combining the hasty OHC graphs posted here yesterday. If anyone has a use for these feel free to pass them along.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jan 21, 2014 - 12:20pm PT
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The Chief is like an uncle you can't stand who shows up uninvited for dinner one night, and ends up crashing in your guest room for months on end. You can't get rid of him, and all he does is make trouble around the house.
It's no wonder, this is how The Chief views himself:
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Jan 21, 2014 - 12:27pm PT
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this is a tedious thread
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Cragar
climber
MSLA - MT
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Jan 21, 2014 - 01:00pm PT
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what are you getting at Sketch?
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Jan 21, 2014 - 01:00pm PT
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Unless you are on course with the "graph" looking like your dwarf dick getting add ons.
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crunch
Social climber
CO
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Jan 21, 2014 - 01:28pm PT
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Hey Chiloe, placed your two graphs on top of each other. Not ideal but it's interesting to see how they compare.
Ocean temps, shallow and deeper, appeared to stay very consistent until late 1990s. Since then both have been rising but deeper ocean temps have risen faster.
Which appears to correlate with the lack of warming, over the same period, in the atmosphere.
Logically, the heat added by greenhouse gas effect has to go somewhere. So, since the late 1990s, perhaps this is where some of it's been going?
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 21, 2014 - 02:33pm PT
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Hey Chiloe, placed your two graphs on top of each other. Not ideal but it's interesting to see how they compare.
Your version nicely highlights the additive nature of the two indexes, and the steeper rise when you include deeper ocean.
Ocean temps, shallow and deeper, appeared to stay very consistent until late 1990s. Since then both have been rising but deeper ocean temps have risen faster.
Which appears to correlate with the lack of warming, over the same period, in the atmosphere.
Logically, the heat added by greenhouse gas effect has to go somewhere. So, since the late 1990s, perhaps this is where some of it's been going?
Yes, that seems to be what people are finding. Notably this 2013 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, by Balmeseda, Trenberth & Kallen:
Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content
The elusive nature of the post-2004 upper ocean warming has exposed uncertainties in the ocean's role in the Earth's energy budget and transient climate sensitivity. Here we present the time evolution of the global ocean heat content for 1958 through 2009 from a new observation-based reanalysis of the ocean. Volcanic eruptions and El Niño events are identified as sharp cooling events punctuating a long-term ocean warming trend, while heating continues during the recent upper-ocean-warming hiatus, but the heat is absorbed in the deeper ocean. In the last decade, about 30% of the warming has occurred below 700 m, contributing significantly to an acceleration of the warming trend. The warming below 700 m remains even when the Argo observing system is withdrawn although the trends are reduced. Sensitivity experiments illustrate that surface wind variability is largely responsible for the changing ocean heat vertical distribution.
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