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raymond phule
climber
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Based on what was posted, I'd guess it's some time in the future.
Not in the past.
Good point except that I believe that some of those scientists has predicted the start of a cooling trend for some years now.
It is just that the data that exist today really doesn't suggest that a cooling trend is coming.
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raymond phule
climber
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Which data are you talking about? The record May we just experienced?
The temperature records that exist. Do you see a global cooling trend?
I looked at the link now. The Easterbrook claim was actually from the crap article I found... Why do anyone listen to someone that is doctoring graphs so that they fit his theory?
I am not sure what bastardi shows in his figure. Another doctored graph?
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Its not the tepid (fourth to sixth lowest max) solar maximum that immediately effects temps , Ed, as you well know it is the prolonged period at solar minimum . Aside from this, the magnetic field of the sun has shown a marked decrease for the last dozen years. This has an unappreciated effect on cloud nucleation by way of increased cosmic rays. The Earth has been in a slight cooling trend since 2002 and when we near the bottom of cycle 24 a heretofore unseen length and depth of TSI decrease will make it decidedly chilly in the mid to high lattitudes
Already global sea ice is at record levels, northern hemisphere winters have increased in severity in many regions, and some of the major ocean oscillations are in negative phase. Many expert climate scientists are predicting a .2C or larger decrease in global mean temps by 2019. Read em and weep boys, you're expert CAGW scientists are going to really have some twisted explanations.
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raymond phule
climber
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I'm not sure, but I think Easterbrook's point is actual temperatures were closer to his predictions than nearly all if the IPCC models' predictions.
The details is as usual not important when sketch discuss something written by a "skeptic" or himself but sentences that everyone except sketch understands can be discussed for pages.
Easterbrook says cooling trend many times and his own doctored graph also shows a cooling trend. Why should anyone interpret him in any other way than what he actually says?
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raymond phule
climber
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By the way, did you expect me to read and answer the edit to your post?
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Easterbrook and cooling ... again? Denialist history repeats itself as farce. When he pushed this stuff at WUWT earlier this year, even Tisdale there exposed him. And that's all been fully described on this ST thread as well.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Hum, Sketch must be referring to the 'pause' that actually increased the long term warming rate.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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How much warming have we experienced in the last 17 years? How does the temperature record compare to forecasted temperature changes predicted in the first three IPCC assessments?
There's been less air warming, and more ocean warming, than the mean of most models in earlier IPCC reports projected. But it you'd been paying any attention or could think for yourself you would know that, and much more on the topic, rather than still barfing this up as if it were a smart talking point.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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2001 to Present
Hadcrut4 - Least squares trend line; slope = -0.000374224 per year
RSS MSU Lower Trop. - Least squares trend line; slope = -0.00576777 per year
This is your cooling? Can I guess you never did look up the definition of "statistical significance"? Or learn what "cherry picking" means?
Easterbrook's cooling predictions are silly, but that's not the main thing he's been criticized for, in this thread and elsewhere. What is the main thing?
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Kind of out the loop here guys. I've been on solo framing duty of my little vacation home project in my spare time, which included the last three rainy days. On a side note, I know it doesn't have any global implications ,but it snowed six times over the month of June in the Talkeetnas from elevations from 2000 up to 4000 feet. It snows every month of the year up here in alaska but six times in June is unusual.
Looks like the climate blogosphere is all excited about discovery of fudging in the official government u.s and global temperature records. I don't know why this is a surprise since everyone paying attention already knew they were artificially cooling the past and inflating the temp of the contemporary. Perhaps their is now enough criminal evidence for indictment. Any thoughts on this Chiloe, Ed, Ht, or Rob Fords biggest fan Bruce?
By the way has anyone done a recent welfare check on old Brucie lately? Judging by the rate of babble issuing from his piehole and the fact that the only one listening is himself, it would seem he is off the deep end, perhaps suffering from dt's
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Don't mention it Bruce, thats what freinds are for. Are you going all the way to seven without oxygen, just that camel back full of rot gut? Watch out for avalanches amigo, it could be that pasty white stuff Ford.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Perhaps their is now enough criminal evidence for indictment.
the last time you thought there might be you were woefully off...
and the attorney general of Sketch's state whiffed on all counts,
then he failed in his bid to be governor... apparently the voters didn't see it his way
it's not like your compatriots haven't cried "criminal!" before, rick, and every time they do, they seem not to have even one indictment, let alone a conviction.
my thoughts? you are barking up the wrong tree.. or perhaps you are just barking mad...
that's my opinion at least, my attempts at explaining the science to you haven't been at all rewarding.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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No need to get your hackles up Ed, it was just a little jokey-poo. We all know these guys are as slippery as snakes in a mud pit.
Don't sell yourself short, you did a damned good job of science education. I have some of your graphs and lessons permanently committed to memory. I found the " the anthropogenoc signal is rather feeble compared to the range of natural variation", quote quite educational.
We should go new routing in the northern nevada desert next fall.
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raymond phule
climber
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You seem to be saying we shouldn't recognize Easterbrook, since we did not experience cooling, as he predicted.
No, I am not saying that. What I said were that you almost always interpret the global warming side in the worst possible way in regard to details while you don't care about any details if it came from a denier.
You interpret what Easterbrook says in a way that make him look that he might have a point even though that it is not what he says. If for example Nutichelli (spelling?????) had said the same things you would have screamed liar and discussed his lies for many pages.
I don't recognise Easterbrook because he obviously use fake graphs and says things that are not true. Kind of strange that he says that he was right when he wasn't.
I know that you and the other readers of whatsupwiththat don't care about details like that.
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raymond phule
climber
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Look at you. More insults.
How can you read that as an insult?
My answer to your question. There has been no statistical significant cooling or warming during that time period and nothing suggest that it has been any cooling, shorter winters, less arctic sea ice, warming of the oceans, record warm in most records after 2000, quite warm now, to name a few things.
If he made his prediction in 2000 I would think that we should look at the trend from 2000 and 2001.
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raymond phule
climber
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Has the IPCC been more accurate in their temperature predictions?
I am not sure because I don't know what predictions Easterbrook actually made. IPCC don't fake their graphs though. His graph (maybe it is his prediction show that the temperature around 2010 should be at the 1980 level if I remember correctly. I don't think that is true.
I really don't know how to measure length of winters in square kilometers like your graph show. Can you explain?
What I meant with shorter winters is that it is a clear decreasing trends in snow cover in the spring.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Looks like the climate blogosphere is all excited about discovery of fudging in the official government u.s and global temperature records. Hah, the pseudoscience bloggers did get all excited. If you kept reading even in that hall of mirrors, AW has already learned that every one of his accusations is false; he's been backpedaling to find something else. But you stopped reading even your own bloggers before that?
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