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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Jan 16, 2014 - 11:16pm PT
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Jan 16, 2014 - 11:50pm PT
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Sure, if you are into faked trend lines.
Good to see you learned how to draw straight lines, and don't need the crayons any more.
Better check your math, Chief.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 17, 2014 - 12:41am PT
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Excellent humor Dr. Hartouni. I was near to rolling on the ground with laughter. You have potential as a guitar picking comedian if you desire a second career. This is after all entertainment, keep up the good work.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Jan 17, 2014 - 12:53am PT
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And you still don't know how to plot trend lines, Chief.
It's pretty simple to do on that page.
Do you need me to hold your hand?
I'll check in on you tomorrow to see if you've figured it out.
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RyanD
climber
Squamish
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Jan 17, 2014 - 01:59am PT
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Jim Brennan
Trad climber
Canada
Jan 16, 2014 - 09:58pm PT
The best thing about this thread is it keeps 5 people who should know better, held in amber.
Ha!
My first time clicking on this thread. Wow! What a scene! Do the other 23000 posts read just like the last 2 pages?? If so u guys are fukked ;-)
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 17, 2014 - 09:33am PT
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Atmospheric Scientist Andrew Dessler provides a compact, accessible review the state of the art with his testimony this week at the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. I recommend checking this out, for the folks who drift by this thread seeking beta but get bemused or dismayed by the circus. A pdf file of his testimony is here. For a more entertaining context, hopefully with some intelligent discussion, you can find the same testimony reproduced in the Rabett Run blog.
Here's an excerpt from Dessler, relevant to talking points getting endlessly repeated on this ST thread of late:
As Fig. 5 shows, the problem in very short temperature trends (like a decade) is that climate variability such as El Niño cycles completely confounds ones ability to see the underlying trend. However, this short-term variability can be removed, and, if one does that, then the hiatus essentially disappears [Foster and Rahmstorf, 2011; Kosaka and Xie, 2013]. Because of this, I judge that there is virtually no merit to suggestions that the “hiatus” poses a serious challenge to the standard model. Fig. 5. A plot of monthly and global average surface temperature anomalies (°F)from the GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (gray line) along with selected negative short-term trend lines (black lines). This figure is inspired by Skeptical Science’s escalator plot (http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47){{/img}}
Nevertheless, it would be wrong for me to claim that the standard model includes a robust understanding of the interaction of ocean circulation, short-term climate variability, and long-term global warming. Viewed that way, the “hiatus” is an opportunity to refine and improve our understanding of these facets of the standard model. Papers are already coming out on this subject [e.g., Kaufmann et al., 2011; Kosaka and Xie, 2013; Solomon et al., 2010]and I suspect that, in a few years, our understanding of this phenomenon will be greatly improved.
What about alternative theories? Any theory that wants to compete with the standard model has to explain all of the observations that the standard model can. Is there any model that can even come close to doing that?
No.
And making successful predictions would help convince scientists that the alternative theory should be taken seriously. How many successful predictions have alternative theories made?
Zero.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 17, 2014 - 09:45am PT
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As a followup to my last post, Andrew Dessler is this guy, a professor of Atmospheric Sciences at Texas A&M University. His recent publications on this topic include:
Dessler, A.E., M.R. Schoeberl, T. Wang, S.M. Davis, and K.H. Rosenlof, Stratospheric water vapor feedback, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 110, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1310344110, 18,087-18,091, 2013.
Dessler, A.E., A determination of the cloud feedback from climate variations over the past decade, Science, 330, DOI: 10.1126/science.1192546, 1523-1527, 2010.
Dessler, A.E., Energy for air capture, Nature Geosci., 2, DOI: 10.1038/ngeo691, 811, 2009.
Dessler, A.E., and S. Wong, Estimates of the water vapor feedback during the El Nino Southern Oscillation, J. Climate, 22, 6404-6412, 2009.
Dessler, A.E., and Sherwood, S.C. A matter of humidity, Science, 323, 1020-1021, DOI: 10.1126/science.1171264, 2009.
Fueglistaler, S., Dessler, A.E., Dunkerton, T.J., Folkins, I., Fu, Q. and Mote, P.W. The tropical tropopause layer, Rev. Geophys., 47, RG1004, DOI: 10.1029/2008RG000267, 2009.
Dessler, A.E., Zhang, Z, and Yang, P. The water-vapor climate feedback inferred from climate fluctuations, 2003-2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20704, DOI: 10.1029/2008GL035333, 2008.
Dessler, A.E., Hanisco, T.F. and Fueglistaler, S. Effects of convective ice lofting on H2O and HDO in the tropical tropopause layer. J. Geophys. Res. 112, D18309, DOI: 10.1029/2007JD008609, 2007.
Minschwaner, K., and Dessler, A.E. Water vapor feedback in the tropical upper troposphere: Model results and observations. J. Climate 17, 1272-1282, 2004.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 17, 2014 - 10:58am PT
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I'm sorry, i thought the professor's post describing Chief, Ron and i was funny till i read the post of Chiefs above describing a trip to Tonga. Absolutely hysterical, had me laughing till almost gagging. All hail The Chief, he's still top dog on this thread.
Chiloe, if you won't declare your self a commie, and refuse to acknowledge your "passage" on the CAGW gravy train, then can you at least admit to being an overstuffed stiff shirt. You really should let your hair down, what's left of it that is.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 17, 2014 - 11:11am PT
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Chiloe, if you won't declare your self a commie, and refuse to acknowledge your "passage" on the CAGW gravy train, then can you at least admit to being an overstuffed stiff shirt. Ya can't buy yourself a clue, Rick, and I can't declare, acknowledge or admit to things you make up.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Jan 17, 2014 - 11:32am PT
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The best thing about this thread is it keeps 5 people who should know better, held in amber.
hey I want to be held in Amber too...er wait...no I don't...okay yes I do...or? What is amber anyway? AN EXCRETION OF THE SEA IN CONCRETE FORM!!!!!!!!!!!! I would never do that..wait. It's cool to be held in Amber? everybody's doing it? Okay well if those as#@&%es are doing it then no way...er ...plate techtonics! No...You've convinced me. It's a conspiracy to cash in on the Amber trend...my bro's been held in amber for forty years...don't need a PEEE AAAACH DEEEEEEE or no BEEEEE EEEEEESSSSSS when encased in tree sap..#$#@*&)(ers!!! My contrarian amberblog trumps your Astralphysics with this little tidbit:
Pytheas says that the Gutones, a people of Germany, inhabit the shores of an estuary of the Ocean called Mentonomon, their territory extending a distance of six thousand stadia; that, at one day's sail from this territory, is the Isle of Abalus, upon the shores of which, amber is thrown up by the waves in spring, it being an excretion of the sea in a concrete form; as, also, that the inhabitants use this amber by way of fuel, and sell it to their neighbors, the Teutones.
So..unless you're Tommy Twotones' neighbor, you sciency amberloving SAPFUKERS can SUCK ON THIS, BEEECHES:
AN EXCRETION OF THE SEA IN CONCRETE FORM!!!!!!!!!!!! RRRRRRRIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIGGGHHHHHTTT!!!!!
WE GOTS YER NUMBER BEEECHES...867-5389!!!!!
Hopefully that's enough CAPS and BOLD TYPE to show you doomsday amber smoking sap huggerz commie fux just how ignorment you really has been.
AN EXCRETION OF THE SEA IN CONCRETE FORM!!!!!!!!!!!!
NIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIICEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!
Of course i must qualify this opinion as that of a laymen. Others on this thread will no doubt call me an idiot.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 17, 2014 - 11:41am PT
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Jeremy, i think your entangling, too much, two different animals. The PDO's turnover from upwelling cool deep water to release of heat from warmed surface water does seem to have a contribution from ENSO western warm pool, but not the majority contribution.Prior to 1976/1977 switch to the positive phase of the PDO, which immediately warmed parts of the north pacific and Alaska several degrees, we had the the most energetic solar cycle (19) of last couple hundred years. In my mind, this increased activity that continued in later solar cycles up to the 76/77 PDO positive shift, accumulated over decades a huge reservoir of sea surface warmth which partly dissipated in the high latitudes. The buildup of SST in the equatorial bands continued without adequate relief till the centennial or millenial scale release of heat of the 1998 El Nino , which spiked temps worldwide. As for now, we have been in severely declining solar activity since the downslope of cycle 23 in the early 2000's, which reached depths not seen in over a hundred years at the bottom of 23/24. This low activity continues with a peak of cycle 24 being the lowest in nearly two hundred years. They say that variation of a typical Schwabe 11 year cycle is only .01% which they believe has negligible forcing effect. However their are little understood solar amplification effects on both the ends of the intensity scale that when combined with sustained TSI changes have significant effects on the accumulation of sea surface warmth. Since we are in a protracted period of decreased solar activity,and because of the huge release of sea surface heat of the centennial scale 1998 El Nino, and because the PDO and a matching southern oscillation (called SOI, i believe) are in negative phase upwelling cool lower waters, and because a significant portion of the western warm pool's heat seems to have been released over Australia over the last two years,i don't see any strong El Nino's or PDO's in the near future. Of course i must qualify this opinion as that of a laymen. Others on this thread will no doubt call me an idiot.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Jan 17, 2014 - 11:50am PT
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wtf, plate tectonics?
call me. 867-5389
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Jan 17, 2014 - 11:57am PT
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AN EXCRETION OF THE SEA IN CONCRETE FORM!!!!!!!!!!!!
Nothing to do with AGW.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 17, 2014 - 12:38pm PT
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TLP writes,
This seems a good juncture to express appreciation to everyone who has posted links to actual publications, and anything objective about the actual science. I have learned a lot! Having had a professor in college present, in all seriousness, a couple of lectures to the effect that the "theory" that the continents have moved around all over the place was not proven, while at the same time in another class we were getting the geomagnetic data showing the actual rates of Atlantic sea floor spreading, I learned long ago not to take any expert pronouncements as definitive unless I could read the actual papers it was based on, look at the graphs, be sure they fit data that is reviewable, and so on. So this thread has been very useful to me. Good to hear. And BTW I can identify with your geology tale. My Dad is a field geologist who became an early proponent of continental drift, back before plate tectonics and in the days when this was bitterly divisive among geologists. Having heard much about this topic for years before I went to college, I was surprised to enroll in geology courses where the profs remained old-school conservatives, still rejecting all the new research showing motion. Then as you say, better bathymetric and magnetic data showed the nature of ocean crust, people saw the plates, and the revolution quickly turned over. Sounds like your two profs weren't speaking to each other, or maybe they were shouting.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Jan 17, 2014 - 12:48pm PT
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Wade,, the number is 867-5309
Rong. That's your number, Jenny.
AN EXCRETION OF THE SEA IN CONCRETE FORM!!!!!!!!!!!!
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TLP
climber
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Jan 17, 2014 - 12:56pm PT
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I think it is very creditable that Rick has a concept that is based on actual things about the real world like what the oceans do and solar activity. (Much more useful post than barfing dogs or the 7,000th post of the same graphs.) Basically, he provides a perfectly good explanation of why there might be expected to be temperature decrease which if overlaid on an overall warming trend would result in flat temperature for a few years; which is exactly what there has been. Here's a question though, if solar activity is the lowest in a century (haven't checked this, but let's take it as a given for now), and the PDO is done with it's century- or millennial-scale heat release, how come temperatures have merely remained flat and haven't gone down all the way to where they were in about 1900? What other reasonably objective theory is there to account for this other than significant GHG contribution to warming? There may well be one, but I haven't heard of it yet.
And though I currently think the science supports the overall warming theory, pretty strongly, I certainly don't think the models are nearly good enough yet. If they were, the PDO would come right out of the whole climate model, not be some external pattern to be used as a correction in order to match observed temperatures. Validly so, for the moment, but a complete climate model will someday include the entirety of the ocean patterns too, which we don't have yet.
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Cragar
climber
MSLA - MT
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Jan 17, 2014 - 12:58pm PT
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bingo Moose.
Kinda the actual point behind this thread(via evo). Simultaneously funny and sad n'sh!t.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 17, 2014 - 01:53pm PT
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One problem with using PDO to "explain" observed temperature is that the PDO index is defined from observed temperatures, so of course they are related. The same circularity occurs with temperature-based El Nino or ENSO indexes, which is why Foster & Rahmstorf (2011) used the Multivariate ENSO index instead (I did that as well).
PDO actually does worse than you might expect, given this circularity, at fitting the observed global temperature. ENSO does better, and unlike PDO does not wash out completely once you statistically control for CO2. That is, in a time series regression model including PDO, ENSO and CO2 as predictors, PDO does not have a statistically significant effect. ENSO and CO2 both do, with CO2's effect much the stronger.
This is another way, very simplified, of getting at what thousands of scientists have been saying. Many things affect global temperature, but you can't explain the observations until you bring greenhouse forcing into the picture.
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TGT
Social climber
So Cal
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Jan 17, 2014 - 04:15pm PT
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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Jan 17, 2014 - 05:05pm PT
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At first I thought the "Larry" stuff was a bit much too, but if you read much of this thread, it all sort of makes sense.
E.g., when "Chiloe" starts "grading" other people's posts (you're 0 for 1, now 0 for 2, now you scored an own goal, now yadda yadda yadda) he's just sort of asking for it.
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