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Mountain climber
Malibu
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Nov 28, 2013 - 05:08pm PT
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Now I am really confused. On one hand, I am told that the climate is stable and can be predicted. On the other, that it is unstable and chaotic and by dumping CO2 into the atmosphere we are triggering a colossal catastrophe. Which is it?
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Nov 28, 2013 - 05:22pm PT
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A colossal catastrophe for humans doesn't mean the climate system is unstable in the chaotic sense.
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raymond phule
climber
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Nov 29, 2013 - 01:19am PT
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Now I am really confused. On one hand, I am told that the climate is stable and can be predicted. On the other, that it is unstable and chaotic and by dumping CO2 into the atmosphere we are triggering a colossal catastrophe. Which is it?
Who told you that? I didn't.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Nov 29, 2013 - 11:16am PT
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so I thought I might try to reproduce those results.
Ed is an actual skeptic!
What is amazing is that the anomaly as calculated are well predicted by the models. The blue line is on top of the red line, certainly within the variability of the blue line.
Ed's graphic shows that when model and observational temperature anomalies are compared using a reasonably broad baseline, they are not so far apart. Ed chooses 1961-1990 as his baseline; here is a roughly similar plot by NASA climatologist Gavin Schmidt (source and a good discussion here) that uses 1980-1999 as the baseline:
http://www.realclimate.org/images/model122.jpg
Denialist versions of this plot favor choosing a relatively warm single year as the common "zero" point -- an arithmetic trick that can arbitrarily make the models look as hot (or flipped around, as cold) as you want.
The Cato graph showed trends instead of temperatures because they want to emphasize that trends in the surface air indexes have been relatively flat in recent years. This is true as far as it goes, but leaves out a whole lot of recent research showing that:
1. The "pause" in surface temperature rise largely vanishes if we control for ENSO, volcanic and solar variations (Foster & Rahmstorf 2011) -- which as Ed has pointed out, the models never claimed to predict.
2. ENSO effects in particular suggest that more heat is being cycled into the oceans. And sure enough, ocean heat content and sea level have continued to rise (Balmaseda et al. 2013).
3. The seasonal and geographic pattern of surface temperatures is consistent with this ENSO effect (Kosaka & Xie 2013).
4. The surface temperature indexes not only overlook the deep ocean, they also tend to over-represent ENSO-affected regions, and under-represent regions with less ENSO impact -- most notably the Arctic, where surface temperatures have risen most steeply. Add the Arctic back in, and surface temperatures are still rising (Cowtan & Way 2013).
Points 1-4 above are drawn from peer-reviewed papers within the past two years, all previously cited on this thread.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Nov 29, 2013 - 01:02pm PT
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Simply amazing, isn't it Ed and Chiloe. You can take data and models then subtract, smooth, average, and get whatever you want, in this case agreement between Hadcru "adjusted data" and "adjusted models". See selected quotes from the dynamic duo below.
Ed-"What is amazing is the anomaly as CALCULATED are well predicted by the models.
Chiloe- "The pause in surface temperature rise largely VANISHES IF WE CONTROL for ENSO, volcanoes and solar variations.
The Hadcru adjusted data looked suspect in the period of the 1930's and the early to mid 1970's. My only other thought is where in the hell in the reality of nature can one control for natural variations such as ENSO, volcanics and solar variations. I should be happy that at least you guys are acknowledging some natural mechanisms for control of the climate other than just the monotonous drumbeat of the overwhelming supremacy of the mythical molecule. Hope you had a happy thanksgiving pilgrims.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Nov 29, 2013 - 01:04pm PT
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Yep, it is cheating when you include the whole planet.
ENSO, volcano and TSI are oscillations, which means over the long term their contributions net very little.
BTW, Spencer and Christy have adjusted their satellite results several times. Completely necessary as knowledge of climate mechanisms and instrumentation increases.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Nov 29, 2013 - 07:14pm PT
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Ed if you fully believe the contents of your last post i have real fear for your sanity. Look around buddy. The land based temps are in a slight decline as is the sea surface and show oceanic layers. Ice mass is increasing. The northern hemisphere is on track for its sixth severe winter in a row. Cold record temps, both summer and winter are outpacing new heat records. Unless you truly believe those deep ocean temps, which we suffer a lack of measurements for, are increasing the short era of increasing temps is on the decline.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Nov 29, 2013 - 07:47pm PT
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All bow to Ed, the undisputed high priest of Supertopos church of "Climatism and CO2 almighty". Of course, oh revered one, if you say to not believe our eyes, ears, and numerous purveyors of empirical temperature data, the believers surely will. Please excuse the rest of us and the expanding percentage of the populace that refuse to worship or sacrifice their good lives on the alter of your church.
EDIT: Good post Bruce. I suggest you collect together your marginally humorous bromides for publication, maybe something like "Climate dialogues".
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Nov 29, 2013 - 08:13pm PT
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I Aint Bruce,ha ....ha .....ha
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 30, 2013 - 10:33am PT
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All bow to Ed, the undisputed high priest of Supertopos church of "Climatism and CO2 almighty". Of course, oh revered one, if you say to not believe our eyes, ears, and numerous purveyors of empirical temperature data, the believers surely will. Please excuse the rest of us and the expanding percentage of the populace that refuse to worship or sacrifice their good lives on the alter of your church.
Rick has a funny way of admitting he's been had.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Nov 30, 2013 - 10:45am PT
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I've been had K-man? Perhaps your right. My thoughts are similar to those laid out by the brilliant Chief and codified in Chuffian Darwinism. If, as you true believers blather on about, that all is lost, we should enjoy the fruits of our technology. 135 miles an hour on hwy. 6 between Bishop and Tonopah, emitting streams of invisible CO2, doesn't sound half bad. Go out with some gusto, just like all other species before us.
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raw
Mountain climber
Malibu
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Nov 30, 2013 - 12:22pm PT
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Chaos figured prominently in early climate science:
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/chaos.htm
Seems rather magically to have disappeared from the present.
(Has this been discussed before? This is an awfully long thread.)
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Nov 30, 2013 - 01:00pm PT
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My thoughts are similar to those laid out by the brilliant Chief
well that pretty much sums it all up. No?
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raymond phule
climber
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Nov 30, 2013 - 03:16pm PT
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Chaos figured prominently in early climate science:
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/chaos.htm
Seems rather magically to have disappeared from the present.
I am currently reading the article. It is interesting.
It is important to note though, that terminology like chaos, stability etc have strict mathematical definitions that not always are the same or very similar to the everyday use of those words.
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