Discussion Topic |
|
This thread has been locked |
Winemaker
Sport climber
Yakima, WA
|
|
^^^^^^^^
Worth a read.
|
|
Binks
climber
Uranus
|
|
I don't invest in the stock market and have only a tiny pittance in some funds I got from some places I worked.
|
|
10b4me
Mountain climber
Retired
|
|
Studly, thanks for the post.
|
|
Kalimon
Social climber
Ridgway, CO
|
|
Closed at 19,550 today . . . invest at your own risk and keep your positions at manageable percentages of your total cash available for investment. Currently this is an unprecedented and unpredictable market environment . . . don't invest what you can't afford to lose.
We will see if this "Santa Claus" rally makes it to Christmas . . . 2017 will be interesting to say the least. Obama is handing off a decent economy compared to the one he inherited. Trump should be kissing his ass.
Historically the Republican administrations tend to eventually stifle the economy because of their belief in trickle down economics. Let's see what the next four years will bring.
|
|
Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
|
|
Two Thumbs up for Kalimon's post. I like his thoughts.
I'm still not "too-skeerd" about the stock market, even under "Das Trump".
With our boring buy & hold portfolio, which is currently around 50% in somewhat safe short & mid-term government bonds & 50% in very-risky stocks, mostly in actively-managed Vanguard Mutual Funds, 2016 has been pretty good.
A quick look late today & we are somewhere around an 8% Year-to-date return. The S & P 500 Index is at a 10.48% return for the year.
And bank CD's are paying 1.25% max?
I'll take the risk & know that the average return for S & P 500 stocks, since its inception in 1928, through 2014, is approximately 10%.
I'll take the risk & the long-term averages.
|
|
briham89
Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
|
|
& 50% in very-risky stocks, mostly in actively-managed Vanguard Mutual Funds,
Which Vanguard Mutual Funds are you invested in? I have been looking around at their different funds lately.
|
|
Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
|
|
briham: Here's a post from last year on our Vanguard Fund investments.
Topic Author's Reply - Aug 29, 2015 - 09:34am PT
Here's a list of the Vanguard Funds we own shares in. Four are bond funds, 2 are mixed stock & bonds,& 5 are riskier all stock funds. 2015 Year to date returns range from -9.7% in the Energy Fund to + 16.78% in the Health Care fund.
We started investing in stocks in the 1980's and I've kept records of yearly gains (or losses) since 1996. In that time period, we've lost money in four years, with the worst being a -30.65% yearly loss in 2008, but we've made money in 15 of 19 years and are even up 3% so far this year.
Our average yearly gain over the last 19 years is +9.23%, which is far more than I can imagine making from any other legitimate investment.
I fully agree that the stock market is risky & can be a heart-breaker, but in the long-run, it makes money for those that do their homework & or invest in Vanguard Index funds.
I'm now divested of the Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth Fund, due to higher fees & lower performance &
the Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities fund, which was a bad buy in the first place.
Here's the thread link this was posted in.
U.S. Stock market "CORRECTION!!" Why am I not "too-skeered
http://www.supertopo.com/climbers-forum/2677901/U-S-Stock-market-CORRECTION-Why-am-I-not-too-skeered
|
|
briham89
Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
|
|
Thanks Fritz for the info!
I have dabbled in a few different areas, but am still very new to the game. My roth IRA is in a vanguard target retirement fund, and I have done ok with a few different IPO's, but the more information the more I can learn, so thanks for sharing.
|
|
Mungeclimber
Trad climber
Nothing creative to say
|
|
Wall Street Journal had an article this morning about a futwad of Chinese debt that isn't collateralized and that isn't really transparent.
Anyone care to speculate on the net effect this might have when those security instruments come due?
If purely internal, then the net impact to US and other markets would be negligible, yes?
|
|
EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
|
|
Looking at the last 22 terms, when the presidency changed from Democrat to Republican the market lost an average of -10.2%, in the inaugural year.
|
|
Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
|
|
Edward T. I must admit to being somewhat of a data junkie & I'd love to look at the report you quote from. I don't disagree, I just want more info.
Here's the much easier to find statistics for full presidential terms.
|
|
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
|
Munge, I too saw that WSJ article yesterday. That could be the biggest news of the year, not
that unfake news has anything to do with the markets. In fact, as Nobel winner Robert Shiller
has shown in his studies there is often little tangible evidence of any thought that drives many
investors. But we digress, as usual. That grey Chinese debt could prove to be a huge issue
as the Chinese real estate bubble looks increasingly fragile. It seems unlikely that the Party
would let too many banks go under but the size of the problem may well be overwhelming.
What would that mean for us? I would think at least a 10% equities correction and major
turmoil in the bond markets as they would likely have to sell much of their massive holdings
thereby driving prices down and yields up which could serve you very nicely if you're positioned
correctly. A smart investment in banking stocks could be very lucrative too as the US and
Euro banks snap up loads of Chinese debt and bonds for cheap, really cheap. As my old
friend Arte Johnson was fond of saying, the next couple of years will be verrrry interesting!
Good article from Reuters:
http://www.reuters.com/article/markets-economy-global-idUSL8N1273LF20151007
It's a buying opportunity! I wouldn't argue with that, if I could stomach the risk factors. :-/
|
|
EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
|
|
It was just from an e-mail a friend sent me. He's a stock market data geek.
|
|
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
|
|
Jan 30, 2017 - 08:14am PT
|
I sold a week ago.
|
|
healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
|
|
|
Jan 30, 2017 - 08:14am PT
|
Dow just shy of 20k? Damn that Obama, yet another tragic legacy of his administration.
I sold a week ago.
No faith in your man? Tacky. You should be all in.
|
|
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
|
|
Jan 30, 2017 - 08:21am PT
|
My man? You have reading comp probs, too? If this is the start of a correction,
which I don't think it is, it was long overdue due to the astronomical CAPE ratios.
|
|
Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
|
|
|
Jan 30, 2017 - 08:52am PT
|
Gentlemen!
I agree! The U.S. stock market, as tracked by the S & P 500 Index, is
GOING DOWN!
THEN UP!
THEN SIDEWAYS!
THEN UP!
THEN DOWN!
or not.
Here's that roller-coaster over the last 40 years.
(I'm happy to have enjoyed the ride.)
Feom Investopedia
It's good to know what's going on in the many diverse segments of the U.S. and international markets. If you're going to pick just one index or market to talk about, you can't go wrong with the S&P 500, which offers a good indication of the movements in the U.S. market in general.
Read more: An Introduction to Stock Market Indices | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/articles/analyst/102501.asp#ixzz4XGSbCKfE
Follow us: Investopedia on Facebook
|
|
AP
Trad climber
Calgary
|
|
|
Jan 30, 2017 - 09:41am PT
|
My theory is that Trump is trying to inflate a giant bubble.
When it crashes he and his oligarch friends will snap up the remains for 30 cents on the dollar
|
|
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
|
|
Jan 30, 2017 - 09:50am PT
|
^^^^ Just like the Hunt Bros tried to do with the silver market in 79-80? Luckily, you commie pinkos have me and my fellow traders to thank for thwarting that nefarious scheme. Those were some days, I'll tell you. Like free soloing the Eiger Nordwand in winter while a rabid baboon is on yer back. Yer welcome!
|
|
|
SuperTopo on the Web
|
Let us know!