Discussion Topic |
|
This thread has been locked |
| Messages 1 - 83 of total 83 in this topic |
Flip Flop
climber
Earth Planet, Universe
|
|
|
Topic Author's Original Post - Oct 23, 2016 - 02:47pm PT
|
What happens to y'all when the next crash comes? (on or about November 12, when the show is over?)
How did Marx and Engels put it way back in 1848? "the crisis tendencies of capitalism in terms of "the enforced destruction of a mass of productive forces". Commonly referred to as Creative Destruction
|
|
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 02:57pm PT
|
If you believe in Marx and Engels you're probably not very invested in anything other than unicorn futures.
What, pray tell, is gonna cause this crash? Wall Street will be quite happy to see Hildabeast
enthroned as she is well and truly paid for. There could be a correction but there is not much
to indicate a 'crash'. There are problems with the Euro banks to be sure and China's real estate
bubble is definitely ready to be pricked but neither of those will cause the well diversified
investor inordinate grief. Of more concern is the state of the federal and state pension obligations but the recent court decision telling those morons they've no guarantee of limitless
largesse is very encouraging.
|
|
Flip Flop
climber
Earth Planet, Universe
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 23, 2016 - 03:01pm PT
|
And yet it moves
Reilly, don't say that you weren't warned. It's the American retiree that's about to get feasted on. Are you suggesting that Marx and Engels never existed?
|
|
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 03:06pm PT
|
It moves because of, at this time, uncertainty. There is plenty of that to be sure but there is as
least as much good news as bad in the US prognosis. Europe, not so much but that is why
one doesn't put more than 20% in furrin stocks and bonds. You just can't trust those Bolshies!
edit:
Flippy, trust me, I'll have the last laugh. If I were younger I would be MUCH more concerned.
|
|
Flip Flop
climber
Earth Planet, Universe
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 23, 2016 - 03:16pm PT
|
Reilly, that 'last laugh' stuff is kinda anti social. Are you familiar with the term "Me Generation". Americans born between 46 and 64? The consensus is that all that jumping under the desk and threat of Global ThermoNucular War short circuited a whole generation. So when you're laughing in the old farts home just remember that we blame you.
|
|
John Duffield
Mountain climber
New York
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 03:26pm PT
|
Interest rates, at long last, are moving upward. I believe Yellen will be able to control it, but I'm not sure.
Flip Flop is correct though, after the election, things that are on hold now, are gonna happen.
|
|
Gunkie
Trad climber
Valles Marineris
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 03:31pm PT
|
No credit bubble. This bull will regain it's legs on Nov 9.
|
|
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 03:38pm PT
|
Interest rates, and specifically bond rates, are a result of China's one child policy, not to mention any form of retirement benefits for those not blessed with gubmint pensions. Yellen and Draghi are increasingly being made impotent, or irrelevant to be more polite.
|
|
John M
climber
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 03:41pm PT
|
Quite a few people predicted an armed revolution after Obama was elected. Some here on the taco said within one year of his election.
Didn't happen.
I'm not saying a correction isn't coming. But as Reilly said. Hillary is bought and paid for by the powers that be.
I did predict the recession under Bush.
|
|
Gunkie
Trad climber
Valles Marineris
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 03:44pm PT
|
I did predict the recession under Bush.
Two recessions under Bush. 2001-2002, 2008-[2009]
|
|
John M
climber
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 03:46pm PT
|
2001 2002 was not predictable. at least timing wise. We had a good idea that we would be attacked some day. Just not that successfully, nor when.
|
|
c wilmot
climber
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 03:47pm PT
|
The recession never ended.
|
|
Gunkie
Trad climber
Valles Marineris
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 03:48pm PT
|
Two under Obama....the present one, and the big one that is imminent.
Not by definition; need two consecutive quarters reporting negative GDP growth. Exactly what is going to trigger the 'big one' in your opinion?
|
|
Gunkie
Trad climber
Valles Marineris
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 03:49pm PT
|
2001 2002 was not predictable. at least timing wise. We had a good idea that we would be attacked some day. Just not that successfully, nor when.
Well I hope you made some bread on the one you did predict, a la The Big Short.
|
|
John Duffield
Mountain climber
New York
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 03:51pm PT
|
will a Time-Warner merger signal it?
|
|
Gnome Ofthe Diabase
climber
Out Of Bed
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 04:02pm PT
|
-making this statement denies known history the previous administration
the Clinton presidency left in a shambles, warned C Rice And Cheeney/bushy, they went on vacations. . .
2001 2002 was not predictable. at least timing wise. We had a good idea that we would be attacked some day. Just not that successfully, nor when.
By September 5th, 2001, the then new administration got what they had a handshake deal on
" just not Nucleerar"
then they ( Cheeny, Wolferwitz, & Rumsfeldgo to Vietnam)
dropped "Ground zero", into the lexicon.
Do any of you wonder why?
The next thing will be a Big Bang
somewhere
May be here, east coast USA ?
That would fix her wagon
and tie us to the house of Saud(i)
As they buy up our Chinese debt.
The was never a time since 1999, when we haven't been in recession.
( chart posted, above)
Multiply the growth of the haves, the wealthier than all but Cragsmans counsel,
The Meg rich are sitting pretty, have cash and holdings that when liquidated will again
Surge a new economy, just hope the USA is still intact to rise from the ashes
|
|
zBrown
Ice climber
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 04:02pm PT
|
ST ILLUMINATI!
|
|
Flip Flop
climber
Earth Planet, Universe
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 23, 2016 - 04:19pm PT
|
Was that a man bun?
I just missed a gubmint job. Town Maintenance. Damn. It's not the loss that gets you it's the loss of hope.
|
|
zBrown
Ice climber
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 07:05pm PT
|
There is no recession so far in 2016 and when the numbers come out at the end of the month the possibility of one will most likely become impossible.
AT&T decision is likely at least one year out.
|
|
limpingcrab
Trad climber
the middle of CA
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 07:11pm PT
|
I'll move here
|
|
apogee
climber
Technically expert, safe belayer, can lead if easy
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 07:23pm PT
|
"Two under Obama....the present one, and the big one that is imminent."
Two complete departures from reality.
Must really suck to live your life in constant fear.
|
|
Escopeta
Trad climber
Idaho
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 07:31pm PT
|
When the big one hits after Obeezy is gone and Imelda Clinton takes over, are we still blaming Bush?
|
|
Todd Eastman
climber
Bellingham, WA
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 07:52pm PT
|
When the big one hits after Obeezy is gone and Imelda Clinton takes over, are we still blaming Bush?
Nope, the blame will be delivered to the McConnell Senate and and the Boehner/Ryan House...
|
|
Escopeta
Trad climber
Idaho
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 07:58pm PT
|
Nope, the blame will be delivered to the McConnell Senate and and the Boehner/Ryan House...
Got it. Ready.
|
|
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 08:01pm PT
|
Boy, a lot of substantive commentary on this page.
|
|
Flip Flop
climber
Earth Planet, Universe
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 23, 2016 - 08:02pm PT
|
Wall Street is greasing the skids for Hillary but they're going to want pay back.
Amirite that when a racist PoS like Estupido says Obeezy it's because he has to bite his racist tongue. What a shart stain.
|
|
Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 08:02pm PT
|
I sigh for those who get excited, worrying about the next impending recession.
Shist, recessions, taxes, & dying are all part of life.
Get over it & stay invested. http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042415/what-average-annual-return-sp-500.asp
According to historical records, the average annual return for the S&P 500 since its inception in 1928 through 2014 is approximately 10%. However, that number can be very misleading. If an investor thinks that translates to just putting money in the S&P 500 Index and watching it double about every 10 years, he is likely in for a rather big disappointment. Accurate calculations of average returns, taking all significant factors into account, can be challenging.
The S&P 500 is a collection of 500 stocks intended to reflect the overall return characteristics of the stock market as a whole. The stocks that make up the S&P 500 are selected by market capitalization, liquidity and industry. Companies to be included in the S&P are selected by the S&P 500 Index Committee, which consists of a group of analysts employed by Standard & Poor's.
The index primarily mirrors the overall performance of large-cap stocks. The S&P 500 is considered by analysts to be a leading economic indicator for both the stock market and the U.S. economy. The 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average were previously considered the primary benchmark indicator for U.S. equities, but the S&P 500, a much larger and more diverse group of stocks, has supplanted it in that role over time.
It's difficult for most individual investors to actually be invested in the S&P 500 since that would involve buying 500 stocks. However, investors can easily mirror the index's performance by investing in an S&P 500 Index mutual fund or exchange-traded fund.
One of the major problems for an investor looking at that 10% average return figure and mistakenly expecting to realize a nice yearly profit from investing in the S&P 500 is inflation. Adjusted for inflation, the historical average annual return is only around 7%. There is an additional problem posed by the question of whether that inflation-adjusted average is accurate since the adjustment is done using the inflation figures from the Consumer Price Index (CPI), whose numbers many analysts believe vastly understate the true inflation rate.
For an individual's investment success, when he chooses to enter the market makes a significant difference. The stock market performed very well for an investor who bought stocks between 1950 and 1965, but the market was nothing but a continuous 15-year disappointment for an investor who entered in 1965. The market's best sustained performance was from 1983 to 2000.
A significant detail about the historical S&P returns is that nearly half, over 40%, of the gains made over the years come from dividends. Calculating in the effect of an investor reinvesting all dividends received would render the historical performance figure substantially higher.
|
|
Flip Flop
climber
Earth Planet, Universe
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 23, 2016 - 08:04pm PT
|
Don't confuse my commentary for fear. Im salivating and licking my lips. I'm pointing it out to scare the fat white elites in here.
|
|
Escopeta
Trad climber
Idaho
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 08:07pm PT
|
Well, yeah. Because history has proven that fat white elites don't fair well in these types of things. <eyeroll>
Tard.
|
|
Flip Flop
climber
Earth Planet, Universe
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 23, 2016 - 08:11pm PT
|
I don't expect remorse from a sociopath.
Fatass
|
|
apogee
climber
Technically expert, safe belayer, can lead if easy
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 08:45pm PT
|
"Amirite that when a racist PoS like Estupido says Obeezy it's because he has to bite his racist tongue. What a shart stain."
You are correct, sir. On all counts.
But don't waste your time engaging him. He just likes to be a contrarian for the sake of being a contrarian.
Shart stain, indeed.
|
|
Flip Flop
climber
Earth Planet, Universe
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 23, 2016 - 08:53pm PT
|
Not Yellen. Not Lagarde. The other one.
|
|
Spiny Norman
Social climber
Boring, Oregon
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 08:58pm PT
|
No one ever accused climbers, as a group, of being unusually bright. (At least they're mostly not snowboarders.)
|
|
i-b-goB
Social climber
Wise Acres
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 09:13pm PT
|
|
|
Bushman
climber
The state of quantum flux
|
|
|
Oct 23, 2016 - 09:35pm PT
|
^^^^^
I'm sorry Flip Flop, that was just too painful to finish watching.
Not worried about the crash, though I know it's coming. Traded the family cow yesterday for some magic beans. We're good to go.
|
|
Flip Flop
climber
Earth Planet, Universe
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 23, 2016 - 09:42pm PT
|
When Escopeta talks I just picture Donnie.
|
|
Escopeta
Trad climber
Idaho
|
|
|
Oct 24, 2016 - 02:52pm PT
|
Go hump someone else's leg for a while Apogee.
Funny how so many people get uptight about the rich white dudes and then turn around and advocate for the very things that made them rich white dudes in the first place.
|
|
Moof
Big Wall climber
Orygun
|
|
|
Oct 24, 2016 - 03:06pm PT
|
The best thing you can do as a mere mortal is to take a long term view. Stocks vary all over the place. So what? Money sitting in a savings account locks in inflation losses. Money sitting in the stock market over almost any 20 year period has made a decent penny
Wall Street has huge computers and wicked smart people looking for every short term advantage to make a buck. You can't outsmart them. Many fortunes have been lost trying. You will lose on average.
Buy the gosh darn index fund, then don't touch it for as long as possible. The Wall Street computers can only screw you for a tiny bit at the front end and back end.
Even if you bought at the peak in 2006, you were back to 100% in 7 years, and be up 30% today. Making the emotional decision to sell because "OMG the whole system is going down!" just locks in losses.
|
|
i-b-goB
Social climber
Wise Acres
|
|
|
Oct 24, 2016 - 03:17pm PT
|
|
|
chill
climber
The fat part of the bell-curve
|
|
|
Oct 24, 2016 - 03:30pm PT
|
Reilly, don't say that you weren't warned.
Indeed. As I scrounge for scraps to eat in the dystopian wasteland that will be my retirement years, I will repeat to myself "Why didn't I listen to Flip Flop? That guy on the internet who warned me."
|
|
NutAgain!
Trad climber
South Pasadena, CA
|
|
|
Oct 24, 2016 - 03:36pm PT
|
A personal anecdote for the edification of those who have not lived long enough to invest through a big boom and bust cycle of stocks.
In a couple years of the dotcom boom (late 90s) I earned about 300% return on my investment, because of a high level of risk I tolerated. I thought I was 'diversified' because I had 1000 shares of "everything under the sun": Cisco, Oracle, Sun, IBM, Amazon, Yahoo, Microsoft, and a bunch of smaller tech companies that I was familiar with because of my job. Branched out into Starbucks, Fedex, and blah blah. I probably had about 40 different stocks. But it was a lot less diversified than I thought.
Every day of that green pie chart lulled me into thinking it never rained. The red pie chart days were just an excuse to buy more because it would surely rebound the next day or week. When day after day the red pie chart appeared, I though I just needed a strong stomach to tolerate the risk and wait it out. Except I was stupid and greedy using "margin", meaning I had loans from the stock trading company to control even more stocks than I could afford. On the good days I made ridiculous amounts of money, more than what a fair number of people here might make in a year. But day after day of red pie chart led to "margin calls" where the stock trading companies wanted their loans paid back asap (like end of the day or the next day) before I ran out of equity. So they would automatically sell my stocks on the worst days to pay back the loans. I persisted like a dumb ass to stay as invested as I could for when it would all rebound, but it just kept riding into the toilet and one day woke up to discover I had not only lost all of my gains, but also 98% of what I had invested! It is crazy how an otherwise reasonably intelligent person can make such ludicrous decisions. In part it was from youthful inexperience of never seeing a downturn, lack of understanding of the risk, and wishful thinking.
I have been gun shy ever since, not trying to get rich quick. No stocks certainly makes my taxes easier to prepare! No spreadsheets and tracking back purchase prices and dates and splits to figure my cost basis. At some point I should get back in the game, but for now I'm saving for primary residence fix-up and I don't want to "invest"/gamble anything I'm not willing to lose.
In hindsight, my strategy actually would have paid off very well if I had not bought 2/3 of my portfolio using loans from the stock trading company. Every stock I had that tanked in the dotcom bust came roaring back within a few years. Damn margin! Damn greed! At least I was young learning that lesson and not blowing my retirement fund or children's college fund.
|
|
rbord
Boulder climber
atlanta
|
|
|
Oct 24, 2016 - 03:58pm PT
|
Buy low and sell high. What's so hard about that?
If in doubt, listen to the advice of someone who listened to the advice of someone who they believe knew what they were talking about, based on their own incomplete information and irrational analysis of that information, and their faith that the other person was smarter and more informed than they are. What could go wrong? If Trump says it's rigged, who are you to disbelieve him?
|
|
dirtbag
climber
|
|
|
Oct 28, 2016 - 08:13am PT
|
Am I supposed to start panicking?
|
|
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
|
|
Oct 28, 2016 - 09:28am PT
|
Well, Dirtbag, it depends upon whether you want to live in a single-wide or a double-wide,
or if you just to continue dirtbagging, doesn't it? Now I could have given a more substantive
answer but we've all seen that those are a waste of time as flippancy is the order of the day.
|
|
Jon Beck
Trad climber
Oceanside
|
|
Thanks again Obama
|
|
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
|
I'm pulling money out of the equity markets. These valuations are getting scary,
as in 1929, 2000, and 2008 scary. It isn't a matter of if. Leaving money
in short term bonds. I'd put money into junk bonds before I would long term bonds.
|
|
Studly
Trad climber
WA
|
|
Our National Debt will be at 20 trillion when Trump takes office. It was about 8 trillion when Obama first took office. But if we just ignore it, then its all peaches and cream.
|
|
couchmaster
climber
|
|
No one can predict the next crash. As an aside, JP Morgan called 2017 the top of the real estate market approx 2 years back, so keep some of yer powder dry.
|
|
Winemaker
Sport climber
Yakima, WA
|
|
Studly, now that Trump is elected all the balanced budget shyte will go out the window. Business as usual, or perhaps not as usual considering the foxes are now in the hen house. Get ready for the raiding parties on social security and medicare. Drain the swamp? Ha ha ha. Prediction: the rich will get richer.
|
|
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
|
Yer delusional if you think the Repubs will go after SS and Medicare.
That's not remotely germane to this topic either so just leave it.
I want to hear how the markets are all rigged and shite.
|
|
Ksolem
Trad climber
Monrovia, California
|
|
Get ready for the raiding parties on social security and medicare.
I think it's already been done. Those programs are largely holding debt in the form of 10 year US treasury bonds. The real $ have gone into he general fund. A clever way of having the money in two places at once, until you need it. Specifically SS is holding $2.8T of US Debt, which approaches half of all foreign holders combined.
This at the same time that The Congressional Budget Office projects the interest rates will climb from slightly over 2 percent today to over 4 percent by 2019. As a result, interest payments will more than triple from $250B today to more than $800 billion in 2026.
And that projection does not account for growth of the debt. So when a large part of revenues are going to interest, where will the trillions for SS come from?
|
|
Jorroh
climber
|
|
"Yer delusional if you think the Repubs will go after SS and Medicare.
That's not remotely germane to this topic either so just leave it".
It was just about the first thing out of Ryans' mouth after Trump won.
Also, depending on how Republicans pursue this (remember the Bush privitization plan) it could be very "germane".
|
|
Winemaker
Sport climber
Yakima, WA
|
|
That's not remotely germane to this topic either so just leave it.
Actually Reilly, it IS germane to the issue. The Republican wet dream is to privatize SS and get the money into the stock market. They are salivating at the thought of all those 'management' fees they're going to reap from all the poor suckers. I can assure you that Wall Street brokers will not be concerned about fiduciary duty to their suckers, er.....clients. The great thing about this, for them, is they make money no matter if the sucker wins or loses; a win-win situation for Wall Street.
And don't tell me what I can and can't discuss
|
|
Flip Flop
climber
Earth Planet, Universe
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 7, 2016 - 04:52pm PT
|
19,big!!!! Double down. What could possibly go wrong?
I like this Chill guy. That's my kind of funny.
Indeed. As I scrounge for scraps to eat in the dystopian wasteland that will be my retirement years, I will repeat to myself "Why didn't I listen to Flip Flop? That guy on the internet who warned me."
Hey Chill, because I like you, this warning is not from the internet. It's from the road.
The Road
|
|
Gunkie
Trad climber
Valles Marineris
|
|
I'm actually getting in position to SELL in 2017. One of Trump's big promises was to reduce long term capital gains taxes from 15% to 8%. I'd sell and buy back in, 30 days later, to save future capital gains taxes.
BUT, I'm also in position to buy PUTS and sell CALLS against long positions in the event that Trump somehow gets the massive $1t infrastructure bill passed, cuts tax rate for corporations AND cuts taxes for the wealthy and issues 50 and 10 year t-bills. Liquidity dries up, we see inflation skyrocket and the consumer credit markets dry up. In that case the markets tank in a big way. Multi-year recession sets in and I'm making bank. Count on it.
|
|
10b4me
Mountain climber
Retired
|
|
Yer delusional if you think the Repubs will go after SS and Medicare.
That's not remotely germane to this topic either so just leave it.
I want to hear how the markets are all rigged and shite.
We shall see.
|
|
Winemaker
Sport climber
Yakima, WA
|
|
^^^^^^^^
Worth a read.
|
|
Binks
climber
Uranus
|
|
I don't invest in the stock market and have only a tiny pittance in some funds I got from some places I worked.
|
|
10b4me
Mountain climber
Retired
|
|
Studly, thanks for the post.
|
|
Kalimon
Social climber
Ridgway, CO
|
|
Closed at 19,550 today . . . invest at your own risk and keep your positions at manageable percentages of your total cash available for investment. Currently this is an unprecedented and unpredictable market environment . . . don't invest what you can't afford to lose.
We will see if this "Santa Claus" rally makes it to Christmas . . . 2017 will be interesting to say the least. Obama is handing off a decent economy compared to the one he inherited. Trump should be kissing his ass.
Historically the Republican administrations tend to eventually stifle the economy because of their belief in trickle down economics. Let's see what the next four years will bring.
|
|
Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
|
|
Two Thumbs up for Kalimon's post. I like his thoughts.
I'm still not "too-skeerd" about the stock market, even under "Das Trump".
With our boring buy & hold portfolio, which is currently around 50% in somewhat safe short & mid-term government bonds & 50% in very-risky stocks, mostly in actively-managed Vanguard Mutual Funds, 2016 has been pretty good.
A quick look late today & we are somewhere around an 8% Year-to-date return. The S & P 500 Index is at a 10.48% return for the year.
And bank CD's are paying 1.25% max?
I'll take the risk & know that the average return for S & P 500 stocks, since its inception in 1928, through 2014, is approximately 10%.
I'll take the risk & the long-term averages.
|
|
briham89
Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
|
|
& 50% in very-risky stocks, mostly in actively-managed Vanguard Mutual Funds,
Which Vanguard Mutual Funds are you invested in? I have been looking around at their different funds lately.
|
|
Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
|
|
briham: Here's a post from last year on our Vanguard Fund investments.
Topic Author's Reply - Aug 29, 2015 - 09:34am PT
Here's a list of the Vanguard Funds we own shares in. Four are bond funds, 2 are mixed stock & bonds,& 5 are riskier all stock funds. 2015 Year to date returns range from -9.7% in the Energy Fund to + 16.78% in the Health Care fund.
We started investing in stocks in the 1980's and I've kept records of yearly gains (or losses) since 1996. In that time period, we've lost money in four years, with the worst being a -30.65% yearly loss in 2008, but we've made money in 15 of 19 years and are even up 3% so far this year.
Our average yearly gain over the last 19 years is +9.23%, which is far more than I can imagine making from any other legitimate investment.
I fully agree that the stock market is risky & can be a heart-breaker, but in the long-run, it makes money for those that do their homework & or invest in Vanguard Index funds.
I'm now divested of the Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth Fund, due to higher fees & lower performance &
the Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities fund, which was a bad buy in the first place.
Here's the thread link this was posted in.
U.S. Stock market "CORRECTION!!" Why am I not "too-skeered
http://www.supertopo.com/climbers-forum/2677901/U-S-Stock-market-CORRECTION-Why-am-I-not-too-skeered
|
|
briham89
Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
|
|
Thanks Fritz for the info!
I have dabbled in a few different areas, but am still very new to the game. My roth IRA is in a vanguard target retirement fund, and I have done ok with a few different IPO's, but the more information the more I can learn, so thanks for sharing.
|
|
Mungeclimber
Trad climber
Nothing creative to say
|
|
Wall Street Journal had an article this morning about a futwad of Chinese debt that isn't collateralized and that isn't really transparent.
Anyone care to speculate on the net effect this might have when those security instruments come due?
If purely internal, then the net impact to US and other markets would be negligible, yes?
|
|
EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
|
|
Looking at the last 22 terms, when the presidency changed from Democrat to Republican the market lost an average of -10.2%, in the inaugural year.
|
|
Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
|
|
Edward T. I must admit to being somewhat of a data junkie & I'd love to look at the report you quote from. I don't disagree, I just want more info.
Here's the much easier to find statistics for full presidential terms.
|
|
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
|
Munge, I too saw that WSJ article yesterday. That could be the biggest news of the year, not
that unfake news has anything to do with the markets. In fact, as Nobel winner Robert Shiller
has shown in his studies there is often little tangible evidence of any thought that drives many
investors. But we digress, as usual. That grey Chinese debt could prove to be a huge issue
as the Chinese real estate bubble looks increasingly fragile. It seems unlikely that the Party
would let too many banks go under but the size of the problem may well be overwhelming.
What would that mean for us? I would think at least a 10% equities correction and major
turmoil in the bond markets as they would likely have to sell much of their massive holdings
thereby driving prices down and yields up which could serve you very nicely if you're positioned
correctly. A smart investment in banking stocks could be very lucrative too as the US and
Euro banks snap up loads of Chinese debt and bonds for cheap, really cheap. As my old
friend Arte Johnson was fond of saying, the next couple of years will be verrrry interesting!
Good article from Reuters:
http://www.reuters.com/article/markets-economy-global-idUSL8N1273LF20151007
It's a buying opportunity! I wouldn't argue with that, if I could stomach the risk factors. :-/
|
|
EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
|
|
It was just from an e-mail a friend sent me. He's a stock market data geek.
|
|
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
|
|
Jan 30, 2017 - 08:14am PT
|
I sold a week ago.
|
|
healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
|
|
|
Jan 30, 2017 - 08:14am PT
|
Dow just shy of 20k? Damn that Obama, yet another tragic legacy of his administration.
I sold a week ago.
No faith in your man? Tacky. You should be all in.
|
|
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
|
|
Jan 30, 2017 - 08:21am PT
|
My man? You have reading comp probs, too? If this is the start of a correction,
which I don't think it is, it was long overdue due to the astronomical CAPE ratios.
|
|
Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
|
|
|
Jan 30, 2017 - 08:52am PT
|
Gentlemen!
I agree! The U.S. stock market, as tracked by the S & P 500 Index, is
GOING DOWN!
THEN UP!
THEN SIDEWAYS!
THEN UP!
THEN DOWN!
or not.
Here's that roller-coaster over the last 40 years.
(I'm happy to have enjoyed the ride.)
Feom Investopedia
It's good to know what's going on in the many diverse segments of the U.S. and international markets. If you're going to pick just one index or market to talk about, you can't go wrong with the S&P 500, which offers a good indication of the movements in the U.S. market in general.
Read more: An Introduction to Stock Market Indices | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/articles/analyst/102501.asp#ixzz4XGSbCKfE
Follow us: Investopedia on Facebook
|
|
AP
Trad climber
Calgary
|
|
|
Jan 30, 2017 - 09:41am PT
|
My theory is that Trump is trying to inflate a giant bubble.
When it crashes he and his oligarch friends will snap up the remains for 30 cents on the dollar
|
|
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
|
|
Jan 30, 2017 - 09:50am PT
|
^^^^ Just like the Hunt Bros tried to do with the silver market in 79-80? Luckily, you commie pinkos have me and my fellow traders to thank for thwarting that nefarious scheme. Those were some days, I'll tell you. Like free soloing the Eiger Nordwand in winter while a rabid baboon is on yer back. Yer welcome!
|
|
10b4me
Mountain climber
Retired
|
|
|
Jan 30, 2017 - 10:51am PT
|
Luckily, you commie pinkos
ad hominems are so unbecoming of you, Reilly
|
|
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
|
|
Jan 30, 2017 - 11:16am PT
|
10b, you know full well some of my best friends are commie pinkos.
Luckily, I don't have any daughters. ;-)
|
|
AP
Trad climber
Calgary
|
|
|
Jan 30, 2017 - 11:46am PT
|
There is a long rock climb near Canmore called Pinko because it keeps wandering left
|
|
| Messages 1 - 83 of total 83 in this topic |
|
SuperTopo on the Web
|
Let us know!