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pud
climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
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Jan 16, 2017 - 02:22pm PT
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The drought is not solely to blame for the poor health of California's federally (mis)managed forests.
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monolith
climber
state of being
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Jan 16, 2017 - 02:24pm PT
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Yeah, federal management in the last 5 years did it.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Jan 16, 2017 - 05:48pm PT
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pud wrote:
Another GW Alarmist that is totally WRONG.
His referenced link is a perfect example of the 'credible science' used by these hand wringing paranoids.
and the link to the Nature article was in the link above:
http://www.nature.com/articles/srep33325
and is not behind the paywall, y'all can read it.
I'd be interested in pud's technical criticism of the paper. Basically it shows how radiative forcing affected California precipitation in the past. Climate responds to all the forcings, and CO2 is one of them... leading to the conclusion that global warming due to anthropogenic CO2 increases could also affect the California precipitation.
Thus, it is the prolonged nature of the SST [sea surface temperature] anomalies, rather than extraordinary magnitude that is exceptional in these earlier Holocene events. If such prolonged, but not especially high-magnitude, events are associated with exceptional aridity or increased moisture in the past, they would likely be capable of contributing to prolonged aridity in the future.
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Taken together, paleoclimatological and paleoceanographic records indicate a system sensitive to radiative forcing which can generate centennial or longer changes in the hydroclimatology of California. As greenhouse gas forcing differs from the earlier climate forcing in terms of mechanisms, wave-lengths affected and seasonal and latitudinal properties, so to the ultimate response of the Pacific may differ. Although climate modeling experiments suggest that current forcing by increased greenhouse gasses may produce an opposite oceanic response in the future, much uncertainty remains in such estimates7,37. However, as both model experiments and the paleorecords presented here demonstrate the potential sensitivity of the Pacific Ocean and California climate to radiative forcing, the response of the Pacific and the ENSO system over the 21st century remains in need of greater understanding in order to fully anticipate the effects of increasing greenhouse gasses on California’s hydroclimatology.
It isn't a stretch, and the conclusion seems quite reasoned.
But maybe pud has some other articles to reference, or some science that provides an alternative perspective.
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pud
climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
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Jan 17, 2017 - 07:04pm PT
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Ed,
I notice you fail to mention malamute's link that boasted the erroneous headline predicting a drought lasting centuries.
Your selective 'facts' only show your narrow view of a complex problem.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Jan 17, 2017 - 08:37pm PT
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yep, my narrow view is to read the source papers...
sorry if that bothers you.
By the way you act around here, you don't exactly come off as the "sensitive type."
You definitely don't come off as someone concerned with the "bigger more complex picture." But maybe I'm wrong, pud could link the science papers he's read that reveal that picture for him.
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ß Î Ø T Ç H
Boulder climber
ne'er–do–well
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Jan 17, 2017 - 08:41pm PT
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"clean-up on aisle 6"
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pud
climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
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Jan 18, 2017 - 08:35am PT
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yep, my narrow view is to read the source papers...
sorry if that bothers you.
By the way you act around here, you don't exactly come off as the "sensitive type."
You definitely don't come off as someone concerned with the "bigger more complex picture." But maybe I'm wrong, pud could link the science papers he's read that reveal that picture for him.
Your self righteous pompous ass attitude seems to be doing well for you Ed. Don't change.
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mouse from merced
Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
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Jan 18, 2017 - 08:54am PT
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G_Gnome
Trad climber
Cali
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Jan 18, 2017 - 09:38am PT
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When reason fails resort to personal attacks. Now where else have I seen this behavior lately?!
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pud
climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
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Jan 18, 2017 - 10:57am PT
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By the way you act around here, you don't exactly come off as the "sensitive type."
You definitely don't come off as someone concerned with the "bigger more complex picture.
Ed H runs out of reason quite often.
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mouse from merced
Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
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Jan 18, 2017 - 01:05pm PT
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"Aisle 6...CLEAN-UP!"
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john hansen
climber
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Jan 24, 2018 - 06:27pm PT
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Been a year since the last post on this thread.
Was in Yosemite about ten days ago and the damage was stunning. The sides of the roads had thousands of trees that the Park Service has cut down. Fifty trees every hundred yards on either side.
Like this.
The Cathedral picnic area looked like a logging mill site with hundreds of 1 to 2 foot , 20 foot logs stacked up.
Mariposa and Oakhurst were even worse. Some one above mentioned 55% die off by 2016. Now there's miles of road with at least that much.
Great place to be if you are in the tree removal business..
To me Yosemite will never be the same.
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monolith
climber
state of being
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Jan 24, 2018 - 06:34pm PT
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A drought could last 500 years and still have 50 good years. Would you look at such a period as about 50 droughts or take the big picture and view it as a single drought?
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WBraun
climber
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Jan 24, 2018 - 07:44pm PT
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The Valley is very much alive.
A river runs thru it.
The river is life ......
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TomCochrane
Trad climber
Cascade Mountains and Monterey Bay
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Jan 24, 2018 - 08:07pm PT
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before all the pines grew up over the past 60 years it used to be a lot easier to walk around the valley and look up at the routes on the rocks
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mouse from merced
Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
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Jan 24, 2018 - 08:41pm PT
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So right, Tom.
It used to be the oak was king.
Nature is nothing if not cyclical.
I recall two years ago on a shuttle bus one tourist lady decrying the lack of view due to the trees lining the road.
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TomCochrane
Trad climber
Cascade Mountains and Monterey Bay
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Jan 24, 2018 - 08:49pm PT
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oaks provided the native people about 80% of their diet...before the California legislature authorized a bounty for Indian scalps
all those grasslands with old oaks were native farms
white man doesn't know how to care for them or what to do with them
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TLP
climber
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Jan 24, 2018 - 09:01pm PT
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Drought and large numbers of trees killed by bark beetles are pretty much the same thing. Conifer bark and wood are full of resin ducts, and that resin is under slight pressure. When a beetle (larva or adult) breaks through the cells surrounding a resin duct as it chews around, the resin flows out copiously and carries the little bugger right out, plus it's been slimed with probably mildly insecticidal resin and is toast. A healthy pine tree can be attacked by thousands of beetles and still "pitch them out" as it's called. I observed this first hand in about a 2-ft diameter pine right near where live, about 20 years ago. I thought it was a goner, the entire trunk was covered with little blobs of mixed resin and chewed bark and larvae in them. But no, it withstood the massive beetle attack and thrives to this day. However, trees that are in severe water stress (whether all the time, or just at the right season, I'm not sure) just don't have the resin pressure to pitch out the beetles, and they die. So the mass tree die-offs from beetles are largely caused by drought. It's compounded by overly dense forests, which now lack the regular ground-level fires that would reduce the amount of new trees that grow. Too many trees sucking up the moisture.
It's peripheral to the main topic, but worthwhile to note that there never, ever was a "pristine" condition of the Sierra Nevada forests, not modified in a huge way by human actions, at least not since the Ice Ages. Right away that the last glaciation melted away and forests moved into the Sierra, so did people, and they started burning it right from day 1. Muir and everyone else wrote about the frequency of fires and all the smoke. But they were mostly ground level fires and all the giant trees that appear in the forest censuses of around 1900 were unaffected. Once the old growth was cut down and replaced by a dog fur of small trees, the forest was screwed. Might not have mattered much even if we hadn't gone all suppression - when that secondary forest burns, it's stand-replacing and the succession is reset back to square one. It'll take decades to get back to a forest condition where there are frequent (every 15-25 years) ground fires. By then, with climate change, the most adapted species will be oak and chaparral. And poison oak.
Still a magic place.
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neebee
Social climber
calif/texas
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Jan 24, 2018 - 10:13pm PT
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hey there say, all... i think i missed this, the first time...
thanks for sharing, jose...
thanks for the bump, too, john hansen...
:)
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Batrock
Trad climber
Burbank
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Jan 25, 2018 - 05:53pm PT
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The bark beetle is just natures way of restoring balance for an over zealous forest management system. We need a good fire to rip through and take out these trees and have a "do over" but man lives too closely with nature now and it's tough to let nature take it's course.
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